Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cardiovascular outcomes of transradial versus transfemoral percutaneous coronary intervention in End-Stage renal Disease: A Regression-Based comparison

Background

Limited data is available on the comparison of outcomes of transradial (TR) and transfemoral (TF) access for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in patients with end-stage stage renal disease (ESRD).

Methods

Online databases were queried to compare cardiovascular outcomes among TR. and TF in ESRD patients. The outcomes assessed included differences in mortality, cerebrovascular accidents (CVA), periprocedural myocardial infarction (MI), bleeding, transfusion, and periprocedural cardiogenic shock (CS). Unadjusted odds ratios (OR) were calculated using a random-effect effect model.

Results

A total of 6 studies including 7,607 patients (TR-PCI = 1,288; TF-PCI = 6,319) were included. The overall mean age was 67.7 years, while the mean age for TR-PCI and TF-PCI was 69.7 years and 67.9 years, respectively. TR-PCI was associated with lower incidence of mortality (OR 0.46 95 % CI 0.30–0.70, p < 0.05, I2 0.00 %), bleeding (OR 0.45 95 % CI 0.29, 0.68, p < 0.05, I2 3.48 %), and transfusion requirement (OR 0.52 95 % CI 0.40, 0.67, p < 0.05, I2 0.00 %) (Fig. 1). There were no differences among TR-PCI and TF-PCI for periprocedural MI, periprocedural CS, and CVA outcomes.

Conclusion

TR access was associated with lower mortality, bleeding, and transfusion requirement as compared to TF access in patients with ESRD undergoing PCI.

Deciphering the Basis of Molecular Biology of Selected Cardiovascular Diseases: A View on Network Medicine

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death across the world. For decades, researchers have been studying the causes of cardiovascular disease, yet many of them remain undiscovered or poorly understood. Network medicine is a recently expanding, integrative field that attempts to elucidate this issue by conceiving of disease as the result of disruptive links between multiple interconnected biological components. Still in its nascent stages, this revolutionary application of network science facilitated a number of important discoveries in complex disease mechanisms. As methodologies become more advanced, network medicine harbors the potential to expound on the molecular and genetic complexities of disease to differentiate how these intricacies govern disease manifestations, prognosis, and therapy. This is of paramount importance for confronting the incredible challenges of current and future cardiovascular disease research. In this review, we summarize the principal molecular and genetic mechanisms of common cardiac pathophysiologies as well as discuss the existing knowledge on therapeutic strategies to prevent, halt, or reverse these pathologies.

Trust Your Gut: The Association of Gut Microbiota and Liver Disease

The gut microbiota composition is important for nutrient metabolism, mucosal barrier function, immunomodulation, and defense against pathogens. Alterations in the gut microbiome can disturb the gut ecosystem. These changes may lead to the loss of beneficial bacteria or an increase in potentially pathogenic bacteria. Furthermore, these have been shown to contribute to the pathophysiology of gastrointestinal and extra-intestinal diseases. Pathologies of the liver, such as non-alcoholic liver disease, alcoholic liver disease, cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, autoimmune hepatitis, viral hepatitis, and primary sclerosing cholangitis have all been linked to changes in the gut microbiome composition. There is substantial evidence that links gut dysbiosis to the progression and complications of these pathologies. This review article aimed to describe the changes seen in the gut microbiome in liver diseases and the association between gut dysbiosis and liver disease, and finally, explore treatment options that may improve gut dysbiosis in patients with liver disease.

Thymoquinone: Review of Its Potential in the Treatment of Neurological Diseases

Thymoquinone (TQ) possesses anticonvulsant, antianxiety, antidepressant, and antipsychotic properties. It could be utilized to treat drug misuse or dependence, and those with memory and cognitive impairment. TQ protects brain cells from oxidative stress, which is especially pronounced in memory-related regions. TQ exhibits antineurotoxin characteristics, implying its role in preventing neurodegenerative disorders such as Alzheimer’s disease and Parkinson’s disease. TQ’s antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties protect brain cells from damage and inflammation. Glutamate can trigger cell death by causing mitochondrial malfunction and the formation of reactive oxygen species (ROS). Reduction in ROS production can explain TQ effects in neuroinflammation. TQ can help prevent glutamate-induced apoptosis by suppressing mitochondrial malfunction. Several studies have demonstrated TQ’s role in inhibiting Toll-like receptors (TLRs) and some inflammatory mediators, leading to reduced inflammation and neurotoxicity. Several studies did not show any signs of dopaminergic neuron loss after TQ treatment in various animals. TQ has been shown in clinical studies to block acetylcholinesterase (AChE) activity, which increases acetylcholine (ACh). As a result, fresh memories are programmed to preserve the effects. Treatment with TQ has been linked to better outcomes and decreased side effects than other drugs.

The integration of mHealth technologies in telemedicine during the COVID-19 era: A cross-sectional study

Telemedicine is a rapidly expanding field of medicine and an alternative method for delivering quality medical care to patients' fingertips. With the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been an increase in the use of telemedicine to connect patients and healthcare providers, which has been made possible by mobile health (mHealth) applications. The goal of this study was to compare the satisfaction of patients with telemedicine among mHealth users and non-users. This was a survey-based study that included outpatients from Abu Dhabi. The association between patient satisfaction with telemedicine and use of mHealth technologies was described using regression models. This study included a total of 515 completed responses. The use of mHealth application was significantly associated with ease of booking telemedicine appointments (OR 2.61, 95% CI 1.63-4.18; P < .001), perception of similarity of quality of care between telemedicine consultations and in-person visits (OR 1.81, 95% CI 1.26-2.61; P = .001), and preference for using telemedicine applications over in-person visits during the COVID-19 pandemic (OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.12-2.72; P = .015). Our study results support that the use of mHealth applications is associated with increased patient satisfaction with telemedicine appointments.

Neuroinflammation: A Potential Risk for Dementia

Dementia is a neurodegenerative condition that is considered a major factor contributing to cognitive decline that reduces independent function. Pathophysiological pathways are not well defined for neurodegenerative diseases such as dementia; however, published evidence has shown the role of numerous inflammatory processes in the brain contributing toward their pathology. Microglia of the central nervous system (CNS) are the principal components of the brain’s immune defence system and can detect harmful or external pathogens. When stimulated, the cells trigger neuroinflammatory responses by releasing proinflammatory chemokines, cytokines, reactive oxygen species, and nitrogen species in order to preserve the cell’s microenvironment. These proinflammatory markers include cytokines such as IL-1, IL-6, and TNFα chemokines such as CCR3 and CCL2 and CCR5. Microglial cells may produce a prolonged inflammatory response that, in some circumstances, is indicated in the promotion of neurodegenerative diseases. The present review is focused on the involvement of microglial cell activation throughout neurodegenerative conditions and the link between neuroinflammatory processes and dementia.

Exploring Quality Differences in Telemedicine Between Hospital Outpatient Departments and Community Clinics: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Telemedicine is a care delivery modality that has the potential to broaden the reach and flexibility of health care services. In the United Arab Emirates, telemedicine services are mainly delivered through either integrated hospital outpatient department (OPDs) or community clinics. However, it is unknown if patients’ perceptions of, and satisfaction with, telemedicine services differ between these two types of health care systems during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Objective

We aimed to explore the differences in patients’ perceptions of, and satisfaction with, telemedicine between hospital OPDs and community clinics during the COVID-19 pandemic. We also aimed to identify patient- or visit-related characteristics contributing to patient satisfaction with telemedicine.

Methods

In this cross-sectional study that was conducted at Abu Dhabi health care centers, we invited outpatients aged 18 years or over, who completed a telemedicine visit during the COVID-19 pandemic, to participate in our study. Patients’ perceptions of, and satisfaction with, telemedicine regarding the two system types (ie, hospital OPDs and community clinics) were assessed using an online survey that was sent as a link through the SMS system. Regression models were used to describe the association between patient- and visit-related characteristics, as well as the perception of, and satisfaction with, telemedicine services.

Results

A total of 515 patients participated in this survey. Patients’ satisfaction with telemedicine services was equally high among the settings, with no statistically significant difference between the two setting types (hospital OPDs: 253/343, 73.8%; community clinics: 114/172, 66.3%; P=.19). Video consultation was significantly associated with increased patient satisfaction (odds ratio [OR] 2.57, 95% CI 1.04-6.33; P=.04) and patients’ support of the transition to telemedicine use during and after the pandemic (OR 2.88, 95% CI 1.18-7.07; P=.02). Patients who used video consultations were more likely to report that telemedicine improved access to health care services (OR 3.06, 95% CI 1.71-8.03; P=.02), reduced waiting times and travel costs (OR 4.94, 95% CI 1.15-21.19; P=.03), addressed patients’ needs (OR 2.63, 95% CI 1.13-6.11; P=.03), and eased expression of patients’ medical concerns during the COVID-19 pandemic (OR 2.19, 95% CI 0.89-5.38; P=.09). Surprisingly, middle-aged patients were two times more likely to be satisfied with telemedicine services (OR 2.12, 95% CI 1.09-4.14; P=.03), as compared to any other age group in this study.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that patient satisfaction was unaffected by the health system setting in which patients received the teleconsultations, whether they were at hospitals or community clinics. Video consultation was associated with increased patient satisfaction with telemedicine services. Efforts should be focused on strategic planning for enhanced telemedicine services, video consultation in particular, for both emergent circumstances, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, and day-to-day health care delivery.

Low Volume Hospitals Are Not Associated with Inferior Outcomes After Thoracic Endovascular Aortic Repair

BACKGROUND

Thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) has been used increasingly to treat complex thoracic aortic pathology. This study aimed to assess hospital volume's impact on outcomes in patients undergoing TEVAR.

STUDY DESIGN

Patients undergoing TEVAR between January 2015 and December 2019 were identified in the Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) database. The participating centers were grouped into either low-volume hospitals (LVH) or high-volume hospitals (HVH). We assessed the impact of hospital volume on 30-day mortality and major postoperative complications using a multivariable logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 3,584 TEVAR patients (asymptomatic = 1,720; symptomatic/ruptured =1,864) were identified at 147 centers. The median average annual number of TEVAR cases at LVH and HVH was 6 and 17 cases, respectively. There was no significant difference in 30-day mortality between LVH and HVH (asymptomatic: 3.7% vs. 3.7%, p = 0.98; symptomatic/rupture: 9.3% vs. 7.3%, p = 0.13). After adjusting for multiple clinical and anatomical factors, being treated in LVH was not associated with increased 30-day mortality (asymptomatic: OR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.52, 1.87, p = 0.96; symptomatic/rupture: OR = 1.15, 95%CI: 0.75, 1.77, p = 0.53) nor an increased risk of major complications, including renal, neurological, cardiac, pulmonary, and femoral artery access complication (all p > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Using a large national database, we demonstrate that LVH is not associated with inferior TEVAR outcomes than HVH. The technical aspect of the procedure might play a role in the similarity of outcomes across the different institutional experiences.

Outcomes of intravascular ultrasound versus optical coherence tomography guided percutaneous coronary angiography: A meta regression-based analysis

BACKGROUND

Studies comparing clinical outcomes with intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) versus optical coherence tomography (OCT) guidance for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in patients presenting with coronary artery disease, including stable angina or acute coronary syndrome, are limited.

METHODS

We performed a detailed search of electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane) for randomized controlled trials and observational studies that compared cardiovascular outcomes of IVUS versus OCT. Data were aggregated for the primary outcome measure using the random-effects model as pooled risk ratio (RR). The primary outcome of interest was major adverse cardiac events (MACE), cardiac mortality, and all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included myocardial infarction (MI), stent thrombosis (ST), target lesion revascularization (TLR), and stroke.

RESULTS

A total of seven studies met the inclusion criteria, comprising 5917 patients (OCT n = 2075; IVUS n = 3842). OCT-PCI versus IVUS-guided PCI comparison yielded no statistically significant results for all the outcomes; MACE (RR 0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57-1.09; p = 0.14), cardiac mortality (RR 0.97; 95% CI, 0.27-3.46; p = 0.96), all-cause mortality (RR 0.74; 95% CI, 0.39-1.39; p = 0.35), MI (RR 1.27; 95% CI, 0.52-3.07; p = 0.60), ST (RR 0.70; 95% CI, 0.13-3.61; p = 0.67), TLR (RR 1.09; 95% CI, 0.53-2.25; p = 0.81), and stroke (RR 2.32; 95% CI, 0.42-12.90; p = 0.34). Furthermore, there was no effect modification on meta-regression including demographics, comorbidities, lesion location, lesion length, and stent type.

CONCLUSIONS

In this meta-analysis, OCT-guided PCI was associated with no difference in clinical outcomes compared with IVUS-guided PCI.

Cardiovascular Health and The Intestinal Microbial Ecosystem: The Impact of Cardiovascular Therapies on The Gut Microbiota

It has become evident over the past several years that the intestinal microbial ecosystem plays a critical role in the development and prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and other metabolic disorders, such as hypertension, obesity, diabetes mellitus, and metabolic syndrome. The intestinal microbiota ecosystem functions as a major virtual endocrine organ that interacts and responds to molecules' signals within the host. Several meta-organismal pathways are involved in the gut-host interaction, including trimethylamine-N-oxide (TMAO) and short-chain fatty acids (SCFA). Host phenotype and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) varying from hypertension, insulin resistance, and obesity to more specific inflammatory processes, such as atherosclerosis and hypercoagulability, have shown to be affected by the gut-host interaction. Additionally, several studies that involved animals and humans demonstrated a striking connection between the development of new CVDs and an imbalance in the gut microbiota composition along with the presence of their derived metabolites. Through this review article, we aim to evaluate the role of the normal gut microbiota ecosystem, its association with CVDs, effects of the therapies used to control and manage CVDs in the gut microbiota environment and explore potential therapeutic interventions to amplify disease outcomes in patients with CVDs.

Physicians' Attitudes Toward Telemedicine Consultations During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Cross-sectional Study

Background

To mitigate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, health care systems worldwide have implemented telemedicine technologies to respond to the growing need for health care services during these unprecedented times. In the United Arab Emirates, video and audio consultations have been implemented to deliver health services during the pandemic.

Objective

This study aimed to evaluate whether differences exist in physicians’ attitudes and perceptions of video and audio consultations when delivering telemedicine services during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

This survey was conducted on a cohort of 880 physicians from outpatient facilities in Abu Dhabi, which delivered telemedicine services during the COVID-19 pandemic between November and December 2020. In total, 623 physicians responded (response rate=70.8%). The survey included a 5-point Likert scale to measure physician’s attitudes and perceptions of video and audio consultations with reference to the quality of the clinical consultation and the professional productivity. Descriptive statistics were used to describe physicians’ sociodemographic characteristics (age, sex, designation, clinical specialty, duration of practice, and previous experience with telemedicine) and telemedicine modality (video vs audio consultations). Regression models were used to assess the association between telemedicine modality and physicians’ characteristics with the perceived outcomes of the web-based consultation.

Results

Compared to audio consultations, video consultations were significantly associated with physicians’ confidence toward managing acute consultations (odds ratio [OR] 1.62, 95% CI 1.2-2.21; P=.002) and an increased ability to provide patient education during the web-based consultation (OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.04-4.33; P=.04). There was no significant difference in physicians’ confidence toward managing long-term and follow-up consultations through video or audio consultations (OR 1.35, 95% CI 0.88-2.08; P=.17). Video consultations were less likely to be associated with a reduced overall consultation time (OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.51-0.93; P=.02) and reduced time for patient note-taking compared to face-to-face visits (OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.36-0.65; P<.001). Previous experience with telemedicine was significantly associated with a lower perceived risk of misdiagnosis (OR 0.46, 95% CI 0.3-0.71; P<.001) and an enhanced physician-patient rapport (OR 2.49, 95% CI 1.26-4.9; P=.008).

Conclusions

These results indicate that video consultations should be adopted frequently in the new remote clinical consultations. Previous experience with telemedicine was associated with a 2-fold confidence in treating acute conditions, less than a half of the perceived risk of misdiagnosis, and an increased ability to provide patients with health education and enhance the physician-patient rapport. Additionally, these results show that audio consultations are equivalent to video consultations in providing remote follow-up care to patients with chronic conditions. These findings may be beneficial to policymakers of e-health programs in low- and middle-income countries, where audio consultations may significantly increase access to geographically remote health services.

Role of triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 2 (TREM2) in neurodegenerative dementias

Neurodegeneration is a debilitating condition that causes nerve cell degeneration or death. Neurodegenerative diseases (NDDs) such as Alzheimer's disease (AD), Parkinson's disease (PD), frontotemporal dementia (FTD), and Lewy body dementia (LBD) are posing a larger population burden of dementia worldwide. Neurodegenerative dementia is one of the main challenges in public health with its main characteristics being permanent loss of memory, impairment in cognition, and impaired daily functions. The published literature about genetic studies of these disorders suggests genetic underpinning in the pathogenesis of neurodegenerative dementia. In the process of underlining the pathogenesis of NDD, growing evidence has related genetic variations in the triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 2 (TREM2). This review paper aims to provide a detailed information regarding the association of TREM2 and NDDs leading to dementia. A central consideration is AD that accounts for almost 50%-70% of all late-life dementias alone or in combination with other neurological disorders. Other prevalent neurodegenerative conditions that lead to dementia are also discussed. Such studies are important as they can give a comprehensive knowledge of TREM2's role in various NDDs, in order to maximize the potential for developing new therapeutic approaches.

2429. The Epidemiology and Outcomes of Enterobacter cloacae Bloodstream Infections in Children

Background

Bloodstream infections cause significant morbidity and mortality in children admitted to intensive care units (ICUs). Enterobacter cloacae bloodstream infections can be particularly challenging to treat given increasing antibiotic resistance and presence of inducible β-lactamases on some strains. The objective of this study was to describe the epidemiology and clinical outcomes for critically ill children with E. cloacae bloodstream infections.

Methods

We performed a retrospective cohort study of children ≤19 years hospitalized in the critical care unit at the Children National Medical Center in Washington, DC with E. cloacae bloodstream infections between 2007 and 2016. We excluded polymicrobial infections. We performed chart review to collect baseline characteristics, treatment regimens, and outcomes. Recurrence of infection was defined as new E. cloacae bacteremia within 30 days of discontinuing antibiotics for initial infection.

Results

Twenty-six episodes of E. cloacae bacteremia met inclusion criteria. Median age was 7 months (IQR 2–16 months), and 6/26 (23%) patients were African-American. All patients had at least one underlying chronic medical condition, the most common being neuromuscular (35%), end-stage renal disease (27%), oncologic (12%), and short bowel syndrome (15%). Central venous catheter was present in 18 (75%) patients and 10 (38%) had hemodynamic instability requiring vasopressor support at time of bacteremia. Seven isolates (27%) were not susceptible to third-generation cephalosporins. Antibiotic treatment varied, with 7 (27%) receiving carbapenems empirically within 72 hours. Mean duration of bacteremia was 2.9 days. Infection recurred within 30 days in 2 patients (8%) and 2 patients (8%) died within 30 days of the initial positive blood culture.

Conclusion

All episodes of E. cloacae bacteremia occurring in children admitted to the ICU occurred in patients with underlying comorbid conditions, and more than half of affected children were infants <1 year. More than one-third of these infections were associated with severe sepsis and nearly one in ten infected patients died within one month

Disclosures

All authors: No reported disclosures.