Circulating proteins to predict COVID-19 severity

Predicting COVID-19 severity is difficult, and the biological pathways involved are not fully understood. To approach this problem, we measured 4701 circulating human protein abundances in two independent cohorts totaling 986 individuals. We then trained prediction models including protein abundances and clinical risk factors to predict COVID-19 severity in 417 subjects and tested these models in a separate cohort of 569 individuals. For severe COVID-19, a baseline model including age and sex provided an area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) of 65% in the test cohort. Selecting 92 proteins from the 4701 unique protein abundances improved the AUC to 88% in the training cohort, which remained relatively stable in the testing cohort at 86%, suggesting good generalizability. Proteins selected from different COVID-19 severity were enriched for cytokine and cytokine receptors, but more than half of the enriched pathways were not immune-related. Taken together, these findings suggest that circulating proteins measured at early stages of disease progression are reasonably accurate predictors of COVID-19 severity. Further research is needed to understand how to incorporate protein measurement into clinical care.

The dynamic changes and sex differences of 147 immune-related proteins during acute COVID-19 in 580 individuals

INTRODUCTION

Severe COVID-19 leads to important changes in circulating immune-related proteins. To date it has been difficult to understand their temporal relationship and identify cytokines that are drivers of severe COVID-19 outcomes and underlie differences in outcomes between sexes. Here, we measured 147 immune-related proteins during acute COVID-19 to investigate these questions.

METHODS

We measured circulating protein abundances using the SOMAscan nucleic acid aptamer panel in two large independent hospital-based COVID-19 cohorts in Canada and the United States. We fit generalized additive models with cubic splines from the start of symptom onset to identify protein levels over the first 14 days of infection which were different between severe cases and controls, adjusting for age and sex. Severe cases were defined as individuals with COVID-19 requiring invasive or non-invasive mechanical respiratory support.

RESULTS

580 individuals were included in the analysis. Mean subject age was 64.3 (sd 18.1), and 47% were male. Of the 147 proteins, 69 showed a significant difference between cases and controls (p < 3.4 × 10-4). Three clusters were formed by 108 highly correlated proteins that replicated in both cohorts, making it difficult to determine which proteins have a true causal effect on severe COVID-19. Six proteins showed sex differences in levels over time, of which 3 were also associated with severe COVID-19: CCL26, IL1RL2, and IL3RA, providing insights to better understand the marked differences in outcomes by sex.

CONCLUSIONS

Severe COVID-19 is associated with large changes in 69 immune-related proteins. Further, five proteins were associated with sex differences in outcomes. These results provide direct insights into immune-related proteins that are strongly influenced by severe COVID-19 infection.

Perioperative intravenous contrast administration and the incidence of acute kidney injury after major gastrointestinal surgery: prospective, multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to determine the impact of preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast for CT and the risk of developing postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery.

METHODS

This prospective, multicentre cohort study included adults undergoing gastrointestinal resection, stoma reversal or liver resection. Both elective and emergency procedures were included. Preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast was defined as exposure to contrast administered for the purposes of CT up to 7 days before surgery. The primary endpoint was the rate of AKI within 7 days. Propensity score-matched models were adjusted for patient, disease and operative variables. In a sensitivity analysis, a propensity score-matched model explored the association between preoperative exposure to contrast and AKI in the first 48 h after surgery.

RESULTS

A total of 5378 patients were included across 173 centres. Overall, 1249 patients (23·2 per cent) received intravenous contrast. The overall rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery was 13·4 per cent (718 of 5378). In the propensity score-matched model, preoperative exposure to contrast was not associated with AKI within 7 days (odds ratio (OR) 0·95, 95 per cent c.i. 0·73 to 1·21; P = 0·669). The sensitivity analysis showed no association between preoperative contrast administration and AKI within 48 h after operation (OR 1·09, 0·84 to 1·41; P = 0·498).

CONCLUSION

There was no association between preoperative intravenous contrast administered for CT up to 7 days before surgery and postoperative AKI. Risk of contrast-induced nephropathy should not be used as a reason to avoid contrast-enhanced CT.

Anti-Schistosoma IgG responses in Schistosoma haematobium single and concomitant infection with malaria parasites

Areas prone to schistosomiasis are also at risk of malaria transmission. The interaction between the causal agents of the two diseases could modulate immune responses tailored toward protecting or aggravating morbidity dynamics and impair Schistosoma diagnostic precision. This study aimed at assessing the effect of Plasmodium spp. in concomitant infection with Schistosoma haematobium in modulation of anti-Schistosoma IgG antibodies. The school-based cross-sectional study recruited a total of 322 children screened for S. haematobium and Plasmodium spp. Levels of IgG against S. haematobium-soluble egg antigen (SEA) in single S. haematobium/malaria parasites infection and co-infection of the two parasites in schoolchildren were determined. Data were analyzed using χ(2), Fisher's exact test, and Tukey's multiple comparison test analyses. The prevalence of single infection by S. haematobium, Plasmodium spp., and concurrent infection due to the two pathogens was 27.7, 41.0, and 9.3%, respectively (p < 0.0001). Anti-Schistosoma IgG production during co-infection of the two pathogens (1.950 ± 0.742 AU) was significantly higher than the value recorded for single malaria parasites' infection (1.402 ± 0.670 AU) (p < 0.01) but not in S. haematobium infection (1.591 ± 0.604 AU) (p > 0.05). The anti-Schistosoma IgG production in co-infection status was however dependent on the intensity of Plasmodium spp. with individuals having high intensity of malaria parasites recording lower anti-Schistosoma IgG. This study has implication for diagnosis of schistosomiasis where anti-Schistosoma IgG is used as an indicator of infection. Efforts should be made to control the two infections simultaneously in order not to undermine the efforts targeted toward the control of one.

Thoracic aortic dissection in a patient with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease

Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease is one of the most common hereditary diseases, and frequently has well defined extrarenal manifestations. Very few cases of aortic aneurysms associated with this disorder are described in literature. We report a 42-year-old male with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease presenting with dissecting aneurysm of the thoracic aorta.