Accounting for albedo change to identify climate-positive tree cover restoration

Restoring tree cover changes albedo, which is the fraction of sunlight reflected from the Earth's surface. In most locations, these changes in albedo offset or even negate the carbon removal benefits with the latter leading to global warming. Previous efforts to quantify the global climate mitigation benefit of restoring tree cover have not accounted robustly for albedo given a lack of spatially explicit data. Here we produce maps that show that carbon-only estimates may be up to 81% too high. While dryland and boreal settings have especially severe albedo offsets, it is possible to find places that provide net-positive climate mitigation benefits in all biomes. We further find that on-the-ground projects are concentrated in these more climate-positive locations, but that the majority still face at least a 20% albedo offset. Thus, strategically deploying restoration of tree cover for maximum climate benefit requires accounting for albedo change and we provide the tools to do so.

Orientational Correlations in Active and Passive Nematic Defects

We investigate the emergence of orientational order among +1/2 disclinations in active nematic liquid crystals. Using a combination of theoretical and experimental methods, we show that +1/2 disclinations have short-range antiferromagnetic alignment, as a consequence of the elastic torques originating from their polar structure. The presence of intermediate -1/2 disclinations, however, turns this interaction from antialigning to aligning at scales that are smaller than the typical distance between like-sign defects. No long-range orientational order is observed. Strikingly, these effects are insensitive to material properties and qualitatively similar to what is found for defects in passive nematic liquid crystals.

Large climate mitigation potential from adding trees to agricultural lands

While improved management of agricultural landscapes is promoted as a promising natural climate solution, available estimates of the mitigation potential are based on coarse assessments of both agricultural extent and aboveground carbon density. Here we combine 30 meter resolution global maps of aboveground woody carbon, tree cover, and cropland extent, as well as a 1 km resolution map of global pasture land, to estimate the current and potential carbon storage of trees in nonforested portions of agricultural lands. We find that global croplands currently store 3.07 Pg of carbon (C) in aboveground woody biomass (i.e., trees) and pasture lands account for an additional 3.86 Pg C across a combined 3.76 billion ha. We then estimate the climate mitigation potential of multiple scenarios of integration and avoided loss of trees in crop and pasture lands based on region-specific biomass distributions. We evaluate our findings in the context of nationally determined contributions and find that the majority of potential carbon storage from integration and avoided loss of trees in crop and pasture lands is in countries that do not identify agroforestry as a climate mitigation technique.

National mitigation potential from natural climate solutions in the tropics

Better land stewardship is needed to achieve the Paris Agreement's temperature goal, particularly in the tropics, where greenhouse gas emissions from the destruction of ecosystems are largest, and where the potential for additional land carbon storage is greatest. As countries enhance their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement, confusion persists about the potential contribution of better land stewardship to meeting the Agreement's goal to hold global warming below 2°C. We assess cost-effective tropical country-level potential of natural climate solutions (NCS)—protection, improved management and restoration of ecosystems—to deliver climate mitigation linked with sustainable development goals (SDGs). We identify groups of countries with distinctive NCS portfolios, and we explore factors (governance, financial capacity) influencing the feasibility of unlocking national NCS potential. Cost-effective tropical NCS offers globally significant climate mitigation in the coming decades (6.56 Pg CO₂e yr⁻¹ at less than 100 US$ per Mg CO₂e). In half of the tropical countries, cost-effective NCS could mitigate over half of national emissions. In more than a quarter of tropical countries, cost-effective NCS potential is greater than national emissions. We identify countries where, with international financing and political will, NCS can cost-effectively deliver the majority of enhanced NDCs while transforming national economies and contributing to SDGs.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions’.

We need both natural and energy solutions to stabilize our climate

We respond to concerns raised by Baldocchi and Penuelas who question the potential for ecosystems to provide carbon sinks and storage, and conclude that we should focus on decarbonizing our energy systems. While we agree with many of their concerns, we arrive at a different conclusion: we need strong action to advance both clean energy solutions and natural climate solutions (NCS) if we are to stabilize warming well below 2°C. Cost-effective NCS can deliver 11.3 PgCO2 e yr-1 or ~30% of near-term climate mitigation needs through protection, improved management, and restoration of ecosystems, as we increase overall ambition.

The role of property rights in shaping the effectiveness of protected areas and resisting forest loss in the Yucatan Peninsula

The impact of different types of land tenure in areas with high biodiversity and threats of deforestation remains poorly understood. We apply rigorous quasi-experimental methods and detailed geospatial data to assess the role of tenure regimes—communally held lands (specifically, ejidos), private property, and their impact on the effectiveness of protected areas, in reducing forest loss in a biodiversity hotspot- the Yucatan peninsula in Mexico. We find evidence that, while protected areas are effective on average, their impact depends on the underlying type of tenure regime and forest, proxied by biomass levels and biome. Protecting communally held land may reduce deforestation, specifically the loss of medium- and high-biomass forests, compared to forests under private property regimes. Our results have important policy implications for the conservation and climate change mitigation efforts on the Yucatan. However, the high variance in forest loss rates among ejidos indicates that other characteristics of ejidos may be central to understanding community-based forest conservation opportunities.

Natural climate solutions for the United States

Limiting climate warming to <2°C requires increased mitigation efforts, including land stewardship, whose potential in the United States is poorly understood. We quantified the potential of natural climate solutions (NCS)-21 conservation, restoration, and improved land management interventions on natural and agricultural lands-to increase carbon storage and avoid greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. We found a maximum potential of 1.2 (0.9 to 1.6) Pg CO₂e year^-1, the equivalent of 21% of current net annual emissions of the United States. At current carbon market prices (USD 10 per Mg CO₂e), 299 Tg CO₂e year^-1 could be achieved. NCS would also provide air and water filtration, flood control, soil health, wildlife habitat, and climate resilience benefits.

Prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat foods sampled from the point of sale in Wales, United Kingdom

A survey of Listeria in ready-to-eat food took place in Wales, United Kingdom, between February 2008 and January 2009. In total, 5,840 samples were taken and examined for the presence of Listeria species, including L. monocytogenes. Samples were tested using detection and enumeration methods, and the results were compared with current United Kingdom guidelines for the microbiological quality of ready-to-eat foods. The majority of samples were negative for Listeria by both direct plating and enriched culture. Seventeen samples (0.29%) had countable levels of Listeria species (other than L. monocytogenes), and another 11 samples (0.19%) had countable levels of L. monocytogenes. Nine samples (0.15%) were unsatisfactory or potentially hazardous when compared with United Kingdom guideline limits; six (0.10%) were in the unsatisfactory category (>100 CFU/g) for Listeria species (other than L. monocytogenes), and three (0.05%) were in the unacceptable or potentially hazardous category (>100 CFU/g) for L. monocytogenes. All three of these samples were from sandwiches (two chicken sandwiches and one ham-and-cheese sandwich). The most commonly isolated serotype of L. monocytogenes was 1/2a. This survey was used to determine the current prevalence of Listeria species and L. monocytogenes in ready-to-eat foods sampled from the point of sale in Wales.

Effect of heparin modeling on delivered hemodialysis therapy

Heparin anticoagulation is standard practice in hemodialysis. To assess the effect of adequate heparinization on dialysis delivery, 28 chronic dialysis patients (mean age, 55 +/- 17 years; 18 men, 10 women) were selected for heparin modeling (HM). Polysulfone dialyzers were used. The dialysis prescription was kept unchanged, and an automated nonbleach reuse procedure was used. Measurements of time average concentration of urea (TACurea), KT/V delivered, normalized protein catabolic rate (nPCR), hematocrit, and dialyzer total blood compartment volumes [TBCVs] (fiber bundle volume [FBV] + header volume) were evaluated before and after heparin dosages were changed as indicated by HM. Heparin dosage increased from 2,400 +/- 841 IU to 4,398 +/- 3,112 IU (P < 0.002). While there was no significant change in nPCR (pre 0.84 +/- 0.34 v post 0.83 +/- 0.30), the effective clearance as measured by urea clearance improved from 212.8 +/- 37 to 240.1 +/- 49 mL/min (P < 0.05), KT/V remained unchanged, and TACurea decreased from 48.8 +/- 22.3 to 35.8 +/- 21.5 mg/dL (P < 0.05). Dialyzer TBCVs were unchanged (from 116 +/- 17 to 114 +/- 17 mL, NS). We conclude that the use of an appropriate dose of heparin during hemodialysis will improve polysulfone dialyzer clearance, increase the delivered KT/Vurea, and reduce TACurea. Heparin dosing should be given close attention because it does affect the dialysis dose delivered.