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Sallée JB, Abrahamsen EP, Allaigre C, Auger M, Ayres H, Badhe R, Boutin J, Brearley JA, de Lavergne C, ten Doeschate AMM, Droste ES, du Plessis MD, Ferreira D, Giddy IS, Gülk B, Gruber N, Hague M, Hoppema M, Josey SA, Kanzow T, Kimmritz M, Lindeman MR, Llanillo PJ, Lucas NS, Madec G, Marshall DP, Meijers AJS, Meredith MP, Mohrmann M, Monteiro PMS, Mosneron Dupin C, Naeck K, Narayanan A, Naveira Garabato AC, Nicholson SA, Novellino A, Ödalen M, Østerhus S, Park W, Patmore RD, Piedagnel E, Roquet F, Rosenthal HS, Roy T, Saurabh R, Silvy Y, Spira T, Steiger N, Styles AF, Swart S, Vogt L, Ward B, Zhou S. Southern ocean carbon and heat impact on climate. Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci 2023; 381:20220056. [PMID: 37150205 PMCID: PMC10164461 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2022.0056] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2022] [Accepted: 02/24/2023] [Indexed: 05/09/2023]
Abstract
The Southern Ocean greatly contributes to the regulation of the global climate by controlling important heat and carbon exchanges between the atmosphere and the ocean. Rates of climate change on decadal timescales are therefore impacted by oceanic processes taking place in the Southern Ocean, yet too little is known about these processes. Limitations come both from the lack of observations in this extreme environment and its inherent sensitivity to intermittent processes at scales that are not well captured in current Earth system models. The Southern Ocean Carbon and Heat Impact on Climate programme was launched to address this knowledge gap, with the overall objective to understand and quantify variability of heat and carbon budgets in the Southern Ocean through an investigation of the key physical processes controlling exchanges between the atmosphere, ocean and sea ice using a combination of observational and modelling approaches. Here, we provide a brief overview of the programme, as well as a summary of some of the scientific progress achieved during its first half. Advances range from new evidence of the importance of specific processes in Southern Ocean ventilation rate (e.g. storm-induced turbulence, sea-ice meltwater fronts, wind-induced gyre circulation, dense shelf water formation and abyssal mixing) to refined descriptions of the physical changes currently ongoing in the Southern Ocean and of their link with global climate. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities'.
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Affiliation(s)
- The SO-CHIC consortium
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | - J. B. Sallée
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | | | - C. Allaigre
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | - M. Auger
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | - H. Ayres
- University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - R. Badhe
- European Polar Board, Den Haag, The Netherlands
| | - J. Boutin
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | | | - C. de Lavergne
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | - A. M. M. ten Doeschate
- AirSea Laboratory and Ryan Institute, School of Natural Sciences, University of Galway, Galway, Ireland
- Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada
| | - E. S. Droste
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - M. D. du Plessis
- Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | | | - I. S. Giddy
- Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa
| | - B. Gülk
- Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | | | | | - M. Hoppema
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - S. A. Josey
- National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK
| | - T. Kanzow
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - M. Kimmritz
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
| | | | - P. J. Llanillo
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
| | | | - G. Madec
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | | | | | | | - M. Mohrmann
- Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - P. M. S. Monteiro
- Southern Ocean Carbon-Climate Observatory (SOCCO), CSIR, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - C. Mosneron Dupin
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | - K. Naeck
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | - A. Narayanan
- Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | | | - S-A. Nicholson
- Southern Ocean Carbon-Climate Observatory (SOCCO), CSIR, Cape Town, South Africa
| | | | - M. Ödalen
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
| | - S. Østerhus
- Norwegian Research Centre (NORCE), Bergen, Norway
| | - W. Park
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
- IBS Center for Climate Physics and Department of Climate System, Pusan National University, Busan, Republic of Korea
| | | | - E. Piedagnel
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | - F. Roquet
- Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - H. S. Rosenthal
- Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | | | - R. Saurabh
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | - Y. Silvy
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | - T. Spira
- Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - N. Steiger
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | | | - S. Swart
- Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa
| | - L. Vogt
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | - B. Ward
- AirSea Laboratory and Ryan Institute, School of Natural Sciences, University of Galway, Galway, Ireland
| | - S. Zhou
- British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
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Agarwal JP, Chakraborty S, Laskar SG, Mummudi N, Patil VM, Upasani M, Prabhash K, Noronha V, Joshi A, Purandare N, Tandon S, Arora J, Badhe R. Applying the QUARTZ Trial Results in Clinical Practice: Development of a Prognostic Model Predicting Poor Outcomes for Non-small Cell Lung Cancers with Brain Metastases. Clin Oncol (R Coll Radiol) 2018; 30:382-390. [PMID: 29499878 DOI: 10.1016/j.clon.2018.02.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/21/2017] [Revised: 12/21/2017] [Accepted: 01/05/2018] [Indexed: 01/21/2023]
Abstract
AIMS The role of whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) in patients with brain metastases from non-small cell lung cancers (NSCLC) has been questioned. However, no reliable criteria exist to identify patients who do not benefit from WBRT. The objective of the current study was to develop a prognostic model to identify such patients whose survival matches that of the Quality of Life after Treatment for Brain Metastases (QUARTZ) study. MATERIALS AND METHODS Outcome data of patients with NSCLC with brain metastases undergoing WBRT enrolled in a prospective observational study in a tertiary cancer centre were used to develop a prognostic model. Baseline clinico-radiological factors were used for development of the model. The model was internally validated and calibration accuracy was checked for prediction of 70 day mortality. The generated prognostic model was presented as a nomogram. RESULTS The median overall survival of 140 patients enrolled in the study was 166 days (95% confidence interval 108-242 days). The prognostic model identified gender, Karnofsky performance status and epidermal growth factor receptor activating mutation status as significant factors influencing overall survival. The model showed a modest discriminative ability with an optimism-corrected C-index of 0.64. However, model calibration error did reveal a moderate degree of calibration error. The high-risk subgroup identified by the model had a median overall survival of 67 days (95% confidence interval 56-101 days), which was similar to that observed in the QUARTZ trial. CONCLUSION This prognostic model derived from traditional clinico-radiological features had a modest ability to identify patients with poor prognosis who may not benefit from WBRT. However, the high-risk subgroup identified using this prognostic model had a survival similar to that observed for patients in the QUARTZ trial.
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Affiliation(s)
- J P Agarwal
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Tata Memorial Hospital, Parel, Mumbai, India
| | - S Chakraborty
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Tata Memorial Hospital, Parel, Mumbai, India.
| | - S G Laskar
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Tata Memorial Hospital, Parel, Mumbai, India
| | - N Mummudi
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Tata Memorial Hospital, Parel, Mumbai, India
| | - V M Patil
- Department of Medical Oncology, Tata Memorial Hospital, Parel, Mumbai, India
| | - M Upasani
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Tata Memorial Hospital, Parel, Mumbai, India
| | - K Prabhash
- Department of Medical Oncology, Tata Memorial Hospital, Parel, Mumbai, India
| | - V Noronha
- Department of Medical Oncology, Tata Memorial Hospital, Parel, Mumbai, India
| | - A Joshi
- Department of Medical Oncology, Tata Memorial Hospital, Parel, Mumbai, India
| | - N Purandare
- Department of Radiology, Tata Memorial Hospital, Parel, Mumbai, India
| | - S Tandon
- Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Tata Memorial Hospital, Parel, Mumbai, India
| | - J Arora
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Tata Memorial Hospital, Parel, Mumbai, India
| | - R Badhe
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Tata Memorial Hospital, Parel, Mumbai, India
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