The incidence of COVID-19-related hospitalisation in migrants in the UK: Findings from the Virus Watch prospective community cohort study

Background

Migrants in the United Kingdom (UK) may be at higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 exposure; however, little is known about their risk of COVID-19-related hospitalisation during waves 1-3 of the pandemic.

Methods

We analysed secondary care data linked to Virus Watch study data for adults and estimated COVID-19-related hospitalisation incidence rates by migration status. To estimate the total effect of migration status on COVID-19 hospitalisation rates, we ran mixed-effect Poisson regression for wave 1 (01/03/2020-31/08/2020; wildtype), and mixed-effect negative binomial regressions for waves 2 (01/09/2020-31/05/2021; Alpha) and 3 (01/06/2020-31/11/2021; Delta). Results of all models were then meta-analysed.

Results

Of 30,276 adults in the analyses, 26,492 (87.5 %) were UK-born and 3,784 (12.5 %) were migrants. COVID-19-related hospitalisation incidence rates for UK-born and migrant individuals across waves 1-3 were 2.7 [95 % CI 2.2-3.2], and 4.6 [3.1-6.7] per 1,000 person-years, respectively. Pooled incidence rate ratios across waves suggested increased rate of COVID-19-related hospitalisation in migrants compared to UK-born individuals in unadjusted 1.68 [1.08-2.60] and adjusted analyses 1.35 [0.71-2.60].

Conclusion

Our findings suggest migration populations in the UK have excess risk of COVID-19-related hospitalisations and underscore the need for more equitable interventions particularly aimed at COVID-19 vaccination uptake among migrants.

Eyeglasses and risk of COVID-19 transmission-analysis of the Virus Watch Community Cohort study

OBJECTIVES

The importance of SARS-CoV-2 transmission via the eyes is unknown, with previous studies mainly focusing on protective eyewear in healthcare settings. This study aimed to test the hypothesis that wearing eyeglasses is associated with a lower risk of COVID-19.

METHODS

Participants from the Virus Watch prospective community cohort study responded to a questionnaire on the use of eyeglasses and contact lenses. Infection was confirmed through data linkage, self-reported positive results, and, for a subgroup, monthly capillary antibody testing. Multivariable logistic regression models, controlling for age, sex, income, and occupation, were used to identify the odds of infection depending on frequency and purpose of eyeglasses or contact lenses use.

RESULTS

A total of 19,166 participants responded to the questionnaire, with 13,681 (71.3%, CI 70.7-72.0) reporting they wore eyeglasses. Multivariable logistic regression model showed a 15% lower odds of infection for those who reported using eyeglasses always for general use (odds ratio [OR] 0.85, 95% 0.77-0.95, P = 0.002) compared to those who never wore eyeglasses. The protective effect was reduced for those who said wearing eyeglasses interfered with mask-wearing and was absent for contact lens wearers.

CONCLUSIONS

People who wear eyeglasses have a moderate reduction in risk of COVID-19 infection, highlighting that eye protection may make a valuable contribution to the reduction of transmission in community and healthcare settings.

Inequalities in access to paid sick leave among workers in England and Wales

BACKGROUND

It is poorly understood which workers lack access to sick pay in England and Wales. This evidence gap has been of particular interest in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic given the relationship between presenteeism and infectious disease transmission.

METHOD

This cross-sectional analysis (n = 8874) was nested within a large community cohort study based across England and Wales (Virus Watch). An online survey in February 2021 asked participants in work if they had access to paid sick leave. We used logistic regression to examine sociodemographic factors associated with lacking access to sick pay.

RESULTS

Only 66% (n = 5864) of participants reported access to sick pay. South Asian workers (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.40, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-1.83) and those from Other minority ethnic backgrounds (OR 2.93, 95% CI 1.54-5.59) were more likely to lack access to sick pay compared to White British workers. Older workers (OR range 1.72 [1.53-1.93]-5.26 [4.42-6.26]), workers in low-income households (OR 2.53, 95% CI 2.15-2.98) and those in transport, trade, and service occupations (OR range 2.03 [1.58-2.61]-5.29 [3.67-7.72]) were also more likely to lack access to sick pay compared respectively to workers aged 25-44, those in high income households and managerial occupations.

DISCUSSION

Unwarranted age and ethnic inequalities in sick pay access are suggestive of labour market discrimination. Occupational differences are also cause for concern. Policymakers should consider expanding access to sick pay to mitigate transmission of Covid-19 and other endemic respiratory infections in the community, and in the context of pandemic preparation.

SARS-CoV-2 infections in migrants and the role of household overcrowding: a causal mediation analysis of Virus Watch data

BACKGROUND

Migrants are over-represented in SARS-CoV-2 infections globally; however, evidence is limited for migrants in England and Wales. Household overcrowding is a risk factor for SARS-CoV-2 infection, with migrants more likely to live in overcrowded households than UK-born individuals. We aimed to estimate the total effect of migration status on SARS-CoV-2 infection and to what extent household overcrowding mediated this effect.

METHODS

We included a subcohort of individuals from the Virus Watch prospective cohort study during the second SARS-CoV-2 wave (1 September 2020-30 April 2021) who were aged ≥18 years, self-reported the number of rooms in their household and had no evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection pre-September 2020. We estimated total, indirect and direct effects using Buis' logistic decomposition regression controlling for age, sex, ethnicity, clinical vulnerability, occupation, income and whether they lived with children.

RESULTS

In total, 23 478 individuals were included. 9.07% (187/2062) of migrants had evidence of infection during the study period vs 6.27% (1342/21 416) of UK-born individuals. Migrants had 22% higher odds of infection during the second wave (total effect; OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.47). Household overcrowding accounted for approximately 36% (95% CI -4% to 77%) of these increased odds (indirect effect, OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.12; proportion accounted for: indirect effect on log odds scale/total effect on log odds scale=0.36).

CONCLUSION

Migrants had higher odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the second wave compared with UK-born individuals and household overcrowding explained 36% of these increased odds. Policy interventions to reduce household overcrowding for migrants are needed as part of efforts to tackle health inequalities during the pandemic and beyond.

Bayesian reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 transmissions highlights substantial proportion of negative serial intervals

BACKGROUND

The serial interval is a key epidemiological measure that quantifies the time between the onset of symptoms in an infector-infectee pair. It indicates how quickly new generations of cases appear, thus informing on the speed of an epidemic. Estimating the serial interval requires to identify pairs of infectors and infectees. Yet, most studies fail to assess the direction of transmission between cases and assume that the order of infections - and thus transmissions - strictly follows the order of symptom onsets, thereby imposing serial intervals to be positive. Because of the long and highly variable incubation period of SARS-CoV-2, this may not always be true (i.e an infectee may show symptoms before their infector) and negative serial intervals may occur. This study aims to estimate the serial interval of different SARS-CoV-2 variants whilst accounting for negative serial intervals.

METHODS

This analysis included 5 842 symptomatic individuals with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection amongst 2 579 households from September 2020 to August 2022 across England & Wales. We used a Bayesian framework to infer who infected whom by exploring all transmission trees compatible with the observed dates of symptoms, based on a wide range of incubation period and generation time distributions compatible with estimates reported in the literature. Serial intervals were derived from the reconstructed transmission pairs, stratified by variants.

RESULTS

We estimated that 22% (95% credible interval (CrI) 8-32%) of serial interval values are negative across all VOC. The mean serial interval was shortest for Omicron BA5 (2.02 days, 1.26-2.84) and longest for Alpha (3.37 days, 2.52-4.04).

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the large proportion of negative serial intervals across SARS-CoV-2 variants. Because the serial interval is widely used to estimate transmissibility and forecast cases, these results may have critical implications for epidemic control.

Symptom profiles of community cases infected by influenza, RSV, rhinovirus, seasonal coronavirus, and SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern

Respiratory viruses that were suppressed through previous lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic have recently started to co-circulate with SARS-CoV-2. Understanding the clinical characteristics and symptomatology of different respiratory viral infections can help address the challenges related to the identification of cases and the understanding of SARS-CoV-2 variants' evolutionary patterns. Flu Watch (2006-2011) and Virus Watch (2020-2022) are household community cohort studies monitoring the epidemiology of influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, seasonal coronavirus, and SARS-CoV-2, in England and Wales. This study describes and compares the proportion of symptoms reported during illnesses infected by common respiratory viruses. The SARS-CoV-2 symptom profile increasingly resembles that of other respiratory viruses as new strains emerge. Increased cough, sore throat, runny nose, and sneezing are associated with the emergence of the Omicron strains. As SARS-CoV-2 becomes endemic, monitoring the evolution of its symptomatology associated with new variants will be critical for clinical surveillance.

Comparative effectiveness of different primary vaccination courses on mRNA-based booster vaccines against SARs-COV-2 infections: a time-varying cohort analysis using trial emulation in the Virus Watch community cohort

BACKGROUND

The Omicron B.1.1.529 variant increased severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in doubly vaccinated individuals, particularly in the Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine (ChAdOx1) recipients. To tackle infections, the UK's booster vaccination programmes used messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) vaccines irrespective of an individual's primary course vaccine type, and prioritized the clinically vulnerable. These mRNA vaccines included the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine (BNT162b2) the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine (mRNA-1273). There is limited understanding of the effectiveness of different primary vaccination courses on mRNA booster vaccines against SARs-COV-2 infections and how time-varying confounders affect these evaluations.

METHODS

Trial emulation was applied to a prospective community observational cohort in England and Wales to reduce time-varying confounding-by-indication driven by prioritizing vaccination based upon age, vulnerability and exposure. Trial emulation was conducted by meta-analysing eight adult cohort results whose booster vaccinations were staggered between 16 September 2021 and 05 January 2022 and followed until 23 January 2022. Time from booster vaccination until SARS-CoV-2 infection, loss of follow-up or end of study was modelled using Cox proportional hazard models and adjusted for age, sex, minority ethnic status, clinically vulnerability and deprivation.

RESULTS

A total of 19 159 participants were analysed, with 11 709 ChAdOx1 primary courses and 7450 BNT162b2 primary courses. Median age, clinical vulnerability status and infection rates fluctuate through time. In mRNA-boosted adults, 7.4% (n = 863) of boosted adults with a ChAdOx1 primary course experienced a SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with 7.7% (n = 571) of those who had BNT162b2 as a primary course. The pooled adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) was 1.01 with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of: 0.90 to 1.13.

CONCLUSION

After an mRNA booster dose, we found no difference in protection comparing those with a primary course of BNT162b2 with those with a ChAdOx1 primary course. This contrasts with pre-booster findings where previous research shows greater effectiveness of BNT162b2 than ChAdOx1 in preventing infection.

Bayesian reconstruction of household transmissions to infer the serial interval of COVID-19 by variants of concern: analysis from a prospective community cohort study (Virus Watch)

BACKGROUND

The serial interval is a key epidemiological measure that quantifies the time between an infector's and an infectee's onset of symptoms. This measure helps investigate epidemiological links between cases, and is an important parameter in transmission models used to estimate transmissibility and inform control strategies. The emergence of multiple variants of concern (VOC) during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has led to uncertainties about potential changes in the serial interval of COVID-19. We estimated the household serial interval of multiple VOC using data collected by the Virus Watch study. This online, prospective, community cohort study followed-up entire households in England and Wales since mid-June 2020.

METHODS

This analysis included 5842 symptomatic individuals with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection among 2579 households from Sept 1, 2020, to Aug 10, 2022. SARS-CoV-2 variant designation was based upon national surveillance data of variant prevalence by date and geographical region. We used a Bayesian framework to infer who infected whom by exploring all transmission trees compatible with the observed dates of symptoms, given assumptions on the incubation period and generation time distributions using the R package outbreaker2.

FINDINGS

We characterised the serial interval of COVID-19 by VOC. The mean serial interval was shortest for omicron BA5 (2·02 days; 95% credible interval [CrI] 1·26-2·84) and longest for alpha (3·37 days; 2·52-4·04). The mean serial interval before alpha (wild-type) was 2·29 days (95% CrI 1·39-2·94), 3·11 days (2·28-3·90) for delta, 2·72 days (2·01-3·47) for omicron BA1, and 2·67 days (1·90-3·46) for omicron BA2. We estimated that 17% (95% CrI 5-26) of serial interval values are negative across all variants.

INTERPRETATION

Most methods estimating the reproduction number from incidence time series do not allow for a negative serial interval by construction. Further research is needed to extend these methods and assess biases introduced by not accounting for negative serial intervals. To our knowledge, this study is the first to use a Bayesian framework to estimate the serial interval of all major SARS-CoV-2 VOC from thousands of confirmed household cases.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council and Wellcome Trust.

Spike-antibody responses to COVID-19 vaccination by demographic and clinical factors in a prospective community cohort study

Vaccination constitutes the best long-term solution against Coronavirus Disease-2019; however, vaccine-derived immunity may not protect all groups equally, and the durability of protective antibodies may be short. We evaluate Spike-antibody responses following BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1-S vaccination amongst SARS-CoV2-naive adults across England and Wales enrolled in a prospective cohort study (Virus Watch). Here we show BNT162b2 recipients achieved higher peak antibody levels after two doses; however, both groups experience substantial antibody waning over time. In 8356 individuals submitting a sample ≥28 days after Dose 2, we observe significantly reduced Spike-antibody levels following two doses amongst individuals reporting conditions and therapies that cause immunosuppression. After adjusting for these, several common chronic conditions also appear to attenuate the antibody response. These findings suggest the need to continue prioritising vulnerable groups, who have been vaccinated earliest and have the most attenuated antibody responses, for future boosters.

Nucleocapsid and spike antibody responses following virologically confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection: an observational analysis in the Virus Watch community cohort

OBJECTIVES

Seroprevalence studies can provide a measure of SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence, but a better understanding of spike and nucleocapsid (anti-N) antibody dynamics following infection is needed to assess the longevity of detectability.

METHODS

Adults aged ≥18 years, from households enrolled in the Virus Watch prospective community cohort study in England and Wales, provided monthly capillary blood samples, which were tested for spike antibody and anti-N. Participants self-reported vaccination dates and past medical history. Previous polymerase chain reaction (PCR) swabs were obtained through Second Generation Surveillance System linkage data. The primary outcome variables were seropositivity and total anti-N and spike antibody levels after PCR-confirmed infection.

RESULTS

A total of 13,802 eligible individuals provided 58,770 capillary blood samples. A total of 537 of these had a previous positive PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection within 0-269 days of antibody sample date, among them 432 (80.45%) having a positive anti-N result. Median anti-N levels peaked between days 90 and 119 after PCR results and then began to decline. There is evidence of anti-N waning from 120 days onwards, with earlier waning for females and younger age categories.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that anti-N has around 80% sensitivity for identifying previous COVID-19 infection, and the duration of detectability is affected by sex and age.

Deprivation and exposure to public activities during the COVID-19 pandemic in England and Wales

Background

Differential exposure to public activities may contribute to stark deprivation-related inequalities in SARS-CoV-2 infection and outcomes but has not been directly investigated. We set out to investigate whether participants in Virus Watch—a large community cohort study based in England and Wales—reported differential exposure to public activities and non-household contacts during the autumn–winter phase of the COVID-19 pandemic according to postcode-level socioeconomic deprivation.

Methods

Participants (n=20 120–25 228 across surveys) reported their daily activities during 3 weekly periods in late November 2020, late December 2020 and mid-February 2021. Deprivation was quantified based on participants’ residential postcode using English or Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation quintiles. We used Poisson mixed-effect models with robust standard errors to estimate the relationship between deprivation and risk of exposure to public activities during each survey period.

Results

Relative to participants in the least deprived areas, participants in the most deprived areas exhibited elevated risk of exposure to vehicle sharing (adjusted risk ratio (aRR) range across time points: 1.73–8.52), public transport (aRR: 3.13–5.73), work or education outside of the household (aRR: 1.09–1.21), essential shops (aRR: 1.09–1.13) and non-household contacts (aRR: 1.15–1.19) across multiple survey periods.

Conclusion

Differential exposure to essential public activities—such as attending workplaces and visiting essential shops—is likely to contribute to inequalities in infection risk and outcomes. Public health interventions to reduce exposure during essential activities and financial and practical support to enable low-paid workers to stay at home during periods of intense transmission may reduce COVID-related inequalities.

A review of prostate motion with considerations for the treatment of prostate cancer

The motion of the prostate gland can influence the efficacy of radiation therapy. This article examines the literature concerning prostate gland motion with considerations for the treatment of cancer. The objectives of this review include providing radiation oncologists, medical physicists, and dosimetrists with data to assist in determining the best treatment adaptation for individual patients. The prostate gland is not a static structure, but rather a dynamic structure and this should be a consideration in the treatment protocol. The treatment planning personnel must add a margin to the clinical treatment volume (CTV) radiation field to account for prostate motion and patient setup errors resulting in a planning treatment volume (PTV). The movement of the prostate in a radiation field with a small margin to protect the anterior rectum may allow the posterior aspect of the gland to escape the prescribed dose. Thus, an understanding of potential prostate movements in radiation therapy is critical to achieve tumor control and minimize radiation complications in patients.

Evaluation of image-guided helical tomotherapy for the retreatment of spinal metastasis

INTRODUCTION

Patients with vertebral metastasis that receive radiation therapy are typically treated to the spinal cord tolerance dose. As such, it is difficult to successfully deliver a second course of radiation therapy for patients with overlapping treatment volumes. In this study, an image-guided helical tomotherapy system was evaluated for the retreatment of previously irradiated vertebral metastasis.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

Helical tomotherapy dose gradients and maximum cord doses were measured in a cylindrical phantom for geometric test cases with separations between the planning target volume (PTV) and the spinal cord organ at risk (OAR) of 2 mm, 4 mm, 6 mm, 8 mm, and 10 mm. Megavoltage computed tomography (CT) images were examined for their ability to localize spinal anatomy for positioning purposes by repeat imaging of the cervical spine in an anthropomorphic phantom. In addition to the phantom studies, 8 patients with cord compressions that had received previous radiation therapy were retreated to a mean dose of 28 Gy using conventional fractionation.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Megavoltage CT images were capable of positioning an anthropomorphic phantom to within +/-1.2 mm (2sigma) superior-inferiorly and within +/-0.6 mm (2sigma) anterior-posteriorly and laterally. Dose gradients of 10% per mm were measured in phantom while PTV uniformity indices of less than 11% were maintained. The calculated maximum cord dose was 25% of the prescribed dose for a 10-mm PTV-to-OAR separation and 71% of the prescribed dose for a PTV-to-OAR separation of 2 mm. Eight patients total have been treated without radiation-induced myelopathy or any other adverse effects from treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

A technique has been evaluated for the retreatment of vertebral metastasis using image-guided helical tomotherapy. Phantom and patient studies indicated that a tomotherapy system is capable of delivering dose gradients of 10% per mm and positioning the patient within 1.2 mm without the use of special stereotactic immobilization.

Circadian rhythms of chemotaxis to ammonium and of methylammonium uptake in chlamydomonas

Chlamydomonas reinhardtii expresses a well-documented circadian rhythm of phototaxis, which peaks in the subjective daytime. We find that vegetative cells also express circadian rhythms of chemotaxis to ammonium and ammonium uptake (as gauged by uptake of [(14)C]methylammonium). The chemotaxis rhythm peaks in the subjective night. Methylammonium uptake is light dependent, and its rhythm peaks at subjective dawn. Unlike vegetative cells, gametes are not attracted to ammonium. We believe this to be the first report of a circadian rhythm of chemotaxis.

Malpractice litigation as a factor in choosing a medical specialty

Although many factors have been identified as influencing specialty choice, there has been no research focusing on the effects of the current climate of medical practice, including litigation. Our study examines medical students' and residents' awareness of the malpractice litigation environment and their reasons for choosing a specialty that is at either high or low risk for malpractice suits. Longitudinal data showed that students continued to choose high-risk specialties (40%) even though they perceived problems in the current climate of litigation. Among the reasons for their choices were enjoyment and being able to practice in a procedure-oriented specialty that is effective in its mode of treatment. Those who chose low-risk specialties (60%) rated as important the variety of diseases seen and the opportunity to know patients well. Issues related to the malpractice climate were important only to those who switched from a high- to a low-risk specialty. These findings have implications for professional staffing needs.