Clinical outcomes of intrauterine device insertions by newly trained providers: The ECHO trial experience

Objectives

To assess the rates of failed insertion, expulsion, and perforation when intrauterine device (IUD) insertions were done by newly trained clinicians, and to examine factors that may affect these outcomes.

Study design

We evaluated skill-based outcomes following IUD insertion at 12 African sites in a secondary analysis of the Evidence for Contraceptive Options and HIV Outcomes (ECHO) randomized trial. Before trial initiation, we provided competency-based IUD training to clinicians and offered ongoing clinical support. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to examine factors associated with expulsion.

Results

Among 2582 IUD acceptors who underwent first attempted IUD insertion, 141 experienced insertion failure (5.46%) and seven had uterine perforation (0.27%). Perforation was more common among breastfeeding women within three months postpartum (0.65%) compared with non-breastfeeding women (0.22%). We recorded 493 expulsions (15.5 per 100 person-years, 95% confidence interval [CI] 14.1─16.9): 383 partial and 110 complete. The risk of IUD expulsion was lower among women older than 24 years (aHR 0.63, 95% CI 0.50─0.78) and may be higher among nulliparous women. (aHR 1.65, 95% CI 0.97─2.82). Breastfeeding (aHR 0.94, 95% CI 0.72─1.22) had no significant effect on expulsion. IUD expulsion rate was highest during the first three months of the trial.

Conclusions

IUD insertion failure and uterine perforation rates in our study were comparable to those reported in the literature. These results suggest that training, ongoing support, and opportunities to apply new skills were effective in ensuring good clinical outcomes for women receiving IUD insertion by newly trained providers.

Implications

Data from this study support recommendations to program managers, policymakers, and clinicians that IUDs can be inserted safely in resource-constrained settings when providers receive appropriate training and support.

Surveillance of ADHD Among Children in the United States: Validity and Reliability of Parent Report of Provider Diagnosis

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the appropriateness of parent-reported diagnosis of ADHD as a surveillance tool.

METHOD

We assessed agreement over time and concordance of parent-reported diagnosis against Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM)-based criteria. We compared concordance of diagnosis and DSM-based criteria by child characteristics, including treatment.

RESULTS

Among parents who reported their child had ADHD, 95.7% reported it again 2 years later. Comparing diagnosis with DSM-based criteria, specificity and negative predictive value were high, sensitivity was moderate, and positive predictive value was low. Most children with an ADHD diagnosis who did not meet DSM-based criteria met sub-threshold criteria or took medication for ADHD. Concordance differed by child characteristics and treatment.

CONCLUSION

Parent-reported diagnosed ADHD is reliable over time. Although differences in parent-reported diagnosis and DSM-based criteria were noted, these may reflect children with milder symptoms or treated ADHD. Parent-report of child ADHD ever diagnosis may be a good single-item indicator for prevalence.

Post-COVID conditions and healthcare utilization among adults with and without disabilities-2021 Porter Novelli FallStyles survey

BACKGROUND

Adults with disabilities are at increased risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe disease; whether adults with disabilities are at an increased risk for ongoing symptoms after acute SARS-CoV-2 infection is unknown.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the frequency and duration of long-term symptoms (>4 weeks) and health care utilization among adults with and without disabilities who self-report positive or negative SARS-CoV-2 test results.

METHODS

Data from a nationwide survey of 4510 U.S. adults administered from September 24, 2021-October 7, 2021, were analyzed for 3251 (79%) participants who self-reported disability status, symptom(s), and SARS-CoV-2 test results (a positive test or only negative tests). Multivariable models were used to estimate the odds of having ≥1 COVID-19-like symptom(s) lasting >4 weeks by test result and disability status, weighted and adjusted for socio-demographics.

RESULTS

Respondents who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 had higher odds of reporting ≥1 long-term symptom (with disability: aOR = 4.50 [95% CI: 2.37, 8.54] and without disability: aOR = 9.88 [95% CI: 7.13, 13.71]) compared to respondents testing negative. Among respondents who tested positive, those with disabilities were not significantly more likely to experience long-term symptoms compared to respondents without disabilities (aOR = 1.65 [95% CI: 0.78, 3.50]). Health care utilization for reported symptoms was higher among respondents with disabilities who tested positive (40%) than among respondents without disabilities who tested positive (18%).

CONCLUSIONS

Ongoing symptoms among adults with and without disabilities who also test positive for SARS-CoV-2 are common; however, the frequency of health care utilization for ongoing symptoms is two-fold among adults with disabilities.

Factors Associated With Severe Illness in Patients Aged <21 Years Hospitalized for COVID-19

OBJECTIVES

To describe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related pediatric hospitalizations during a period of B.1.617.2 (Δ) variant predominance and to determine age-specific factors associated with severe illness.

METHODS

We abstracted data from medical charts to conduct a cross-sectional study of patients aged <21 years hospitalized at 6 United States children's hospitals from July to August 2021 for COVID-19 or with an incidental positive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 test. Among patients with COVID-19, we assessed factors associated with severe illness by calculating age-stratified prevalence ratios (PR). We defined severe illness as receiving high-flow nasal cannula, positive airway pressure, or invasive mechanical ventilation.

RESULTS

Of 947 hospitalized patients, 759 (80.1%) had COVID-19, of whom 287 (37.8%) had severe illness. Factors associated with severe illness included coinfection with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) (PR 3.64) and bacteria (PR 1.88) in infants; RSV coinfection in patients aged 1 to 4 years (PR 1.96); and obesity in patients aged 5 to 11 (PR 2.20) and 12 to 17 years (PR 2.48). Having ≥2 underlying medical conditions was associated with severe illness in patients aged <1 (PR 1.82), 5 to 11 (PR 3.72), and 12 to 17 years (PR 3.19).

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients hospitalized for COVID-19, factors associated with severe illness included RSV coinfection in those aged <5 years, obesity in those aged 5 to 17 years, and other underlying conditions for all age groups <18 years. These findings can inform pediatric practice, risk communication, and prevention strategies, including vaccination against COVID-19.

Stability of mental disorder prevalence estimates among school-aged children and adolescents: findings from the community-based project to learn about youth-mental health (PLAY-MH) and replication-PLAY-MH (Re-PLAY-MH), 2014-2017

PURPOSE

This study evaluated the stability over time of prevalence estimates of mental disorders among school-aged children from the same community.

METHODS

We compared screening status and weighted prevalence of selected mental disorders from the two-stage school-based South Carolina Project to Learn About Youth-Mental Health (Time 1) and its replication study (Time 2) conducted between 2014 and 2017. During stage 1, two teacher screeners were used to group students into high or low risk for a mental disorder. During stage 2, parents of selected students completed a structured diagnostic interview to assess whether their child met criteria for specific disorders.

RESULTS

For stage 1, 19.9% of students screened as high risk for a mental disorder at Time 2 compared to 17.8% at Time 1. Among students included at both timepoints, 9.1% screened as high risk at both timepoints while screening status changed for 20.7%. The overall prevalence of included mental disorders was approximately 18% at both time points There were no differences (P-values >.05) in prevalence of individual mental disorders between Time 1 (range:0.3%-6.7%) and Time 2 (range:1.2%-7.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

Study findings demonstrate that similar methodology yielded similar prevalence estimates of mental disorders and can inform community-level planning for improving mental health in children.

Children, adolescents, and young adults hospitalized with COVID-19 and diabetes in summer 2021

INTRODUCTION

More information is needed to understand the clinical epidemiology of children and young adults hospitalized with diabetes and COVID-19. We describe the demographic and clinical characteristics of patients <21 years old hospitalized with COVID-19 and either Type 1 or Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T1DM or T2DM) during peak incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection with the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant.

METHODS

This is a descriptive sub-analysis of a retrospective chart review of patients aged <21 years hospitalized with COVID-19 in six US children's hospitals during July-August 2021. Patients with COVID-19 and either newly diagnosed or known T1DM or T2DM were described using originally collected data and diabetes-related data specifically collected on these patients.

RESULTS

Of the 58 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and diabetes, 34 had T1DM and 24 had T2DM. Of those with T1DM and T2DM, 26% (9/34) and 33% (8/24), respectively, were newly diagnosed. Among those >12 years old and eligible for COVID-19 vaccination, 93% were unvaccinated (42/45). Among patients with T1DM, 88% had diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) and 6% had COVID-19 pneumonia; of those with T2DM, 46% had DKA and 58% had COVID-19 pneumonia. Of those with T1DM or T2DM, 59% and 46%, respectively, required ICU admission.

CONCLUSION

Our findings highlight the importance of considering diabetes in the evaluation of children and young adults presenting with COVID-19; the challenges of managing young patients who present with both COVID-19 and diabetes, particularly T2DM; and the importance of preventive actions like COVID-19 vaccination to prevent severe illness among those eligible with both COVID-19 and diabetes.

Prevalence of Select New Symptoms and Conditions Among Persons Aged Younger Than 20 Years and 20 Years or Older at 31 to 150 Days After Testing Positive or Negative for SARS-CoV-2

IMPORTANCE

New symptoms and conditions can develop following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Whether they occur more frequently among persons with SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with those without is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the prevalence of new diagnoses of select symptoms and conditions between 31 and 150 days after testing among persons who tested positive vs negative for SARS-CoV-2.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study analyzed aggregated electronic health record data from 40 health care systems, including 338 024 persons younger than 20 years and 1 790 886 persons aged 20 years or older who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 during March to December 2020 and who had medical encounters between 31 and 150 days after testing.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification codes were used to capture new symptoms and conditions that were recorded 31 to 150 days after a SARS-CoV-2 test but absent in the 18 months to 7 days prior to testing. The prevalence of new symptoms and conditions was compared between persons with positive and negative SARS-CoV-2 tests stratified by age (20 years or older and young than 20 years) and care setting (nonhospitalized, hospitalized, or hospitalized and ventilated).

RESULTS

A total of 168 701 persons aged 20 years or older and 26 665 younger than 20 years tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, and 1 622 185 persons aged 20 years or older and 311 359 younger than 20 years tested negative. Shortness of breath was more common among persons with a positive vs negative test result among hospitalized patients (≥20 years: prevalence ratio [PR], 1.89 [99% CI, 1.79-2.01]; <20 years: PR, 1.72 [99% CI, 1.17-2.51]). Shortness of breath was also more common among nonhospitalized patients aged 20 years or older with a positive vs negative test result (PR, 1.09 [99% CI, 1.05-1.13]). Among hospitalized persons aged 20 years or older, the prevalence of new fatigue (PR, 1.35 [99% CI, 1.27-1.44]) and type 2 diabetes (PR, 2.03 [99% CI, 1.87-2.19]) was higher among those with a positive vs a negative test result. Among hospitalized persons younger than 20 years, the prevalence of type 2 diabetes (PR, 2.14 [99% CI, 1.13-4.06]) was higher among those with a positive vs a negative test result; however, the prevalence difference was less than 1%.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study, among persons hospitalized after a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result, diagnoses of certain symptoms and conditions were higher than among those with a negative test result. Health care professionals should be aware of symptoms and conditions that may develop after SARS-CoV-2 infection, particularly among those hospitalized after diagnosis.

Perceived Racial/Ethnic Discrimination, Physical and Mental Health Conditions in Childhood, and the Relative Role of Other Adverse Experiences

Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are associated with poor health. Childhood experiences of racial/ethnic discrimination and other forms of racism may underlie or exacerbate other ACEs. We explored health-related associations with perceived racial/ethnic discrimination relative to other ACEs, using data from 2016-2019 National Survey of Children's Health, an annual cross-sectional, nationally representative survey. Parent responses for 88,183 children ages 6-17 years with complete data for ACEs (including racial/ethnic discrimination) were analyzed for associations between racial/ethnic discrimination, other ACEs, demographics, and physical and mental health conditions with weighted prevalence estimates and Wald chi-square tests. To assess associations between racial/ethnic discrimination and health conditions relative to other ACEs, we used weighted Poisson regressions, adjusted for exposure to other ACEs, age, and sex. We assessed effect modification by race/ethnicity. Prevalence of other ACEs was highest among children with racial/ethnic discrimination, and both racial/ethnic discrimination and other ACEs were associated with having one or more health conditions. Adjusted associations between racial/ethnic discrimination and health conditions differed by race/ethnicity (interaction P-values < 0.001) and were strongest for mental health conditions among Hispanic/Latino (adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR)=1.62, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.24-2.10) and non-Hispanic/Latino Asian American (aPR=2.25, 95% CI: 1.37-3.71) children. Results suggest racial/ethnic discrimination and other ACEs are associated with child health conditions, with differences in relative associations by race/ethnicity. Public health efforts to prevent childhood adversity, including racial/ethnic discrimination and other forms of racism could be associated with improvements in child health.

Cost of pre-exposure prophylaxis delivery in family planning clinics to prevent HIV acquisition among adolescent girls and young women in Kisumu, Kenya

INTRODUCTION

Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is increasingly being implemented in sub-Saharan Africa. Adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in Kenya contribute more than half of all new infections among young people aged 15-24 years, highlighting the need for evidence on the cost of PrEP in real-world implementation to inform the budget impact, cost-effectiveness, and financial sustainability of PrEP programs.

METHODS

We estimated the cost of delivering PrEP to AGYW enrolled in a PrEP implementation study in two family planning clinics in Kisumu county, located in western Kenya. We derived total annual costs and the average cost per client-month of PrEP by input type (variable or fixed) and visit type (initiation or follow-up). We estimated all costs as implemented in the study, and under implementation by the Kenyan Ministry of Health (MoH), both at the program volume observed and if the facilities were delivering PrEP at full capacity (scaled-MoH).

RESULTS

For the costing period between March 2018 and March 2019, 615 HIV-negative women contributed 1,128 (502 initiation and 626 follow-up) visits. The average cost per client-month of PrEP dispensed per study protocol and per the MoH scenario was $28.92 and $14.52, respectively. If the MoH scaled the program so that facilities could see PrEP clients at capacity, the average cost per client-month of PrEP was $10.88. Medication costs accounted for the largest proportion of the total annual costs (48% in MoH scenario and 65% in the scaled-MoH scenario).

CONCLUSIONS

Using data from a PrEP implementation program, we found that the cost per client-month of PrEP dispensed is reduced by 62% if PrEP delivery at the two clinics is scaled up by the MoH. Our findings are valuable for informing local resource allocation and budgetary cost projections for scale-up of PrEP delivery to AGYW. Additionally, previous cost-effectiveness studies have been limited by the use of fixed assumptions of the cost of PrEP per person-month. Our study provides cost estimates from practical data which will better inform cost-effectiveness and budget impact analyses.

Uptake and impact of facility-based HIV self-testing on PrEP delivery: a pilot study among young women in Kisumu, Kenya

INTRODUCTION

HIV testing is a required part of delivery of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention. However, repeat testing can be challenging in busy, under-staffed clinical settings, which could negatively impact PrEP uptake and continuation. We prospectively evaluated optional facility-based HIV self-testing (HIVST) among young women using PrEP in an implementation programme.

METHODS

Between February and November 2019, we collected data from young women receiving PrEP at two family planning facilities in Kisumu, Kenya. At each PrEP follow-up visit, women were given the option to choose between provider-initiated testing and HIVST. We assessed factors associated with HIVST uptake and compared satisfaction with HIV testing and clinic experience between acceptors and decliners of HIVST.

RESULTS

A total of 172 women were offered HIVST at 202 PrEP follow-up visits. The median age was 21 years, 27% had multiple partners and 15% reported previously using HIVST. HIVST was accepted at 34.7% (70/202) of visits. Age (adjusted relative risk (aRR) 1.09 per year, 95% CI (confidence interval) 1.01 to 1.18), never being married (aRR 1.81, 95% CI 1.11 to 2.95) and having more PrEP follow-up visits (aRR 1.13 per visit, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.23) were associated with HIVST uptake. Compared to HIVST decliners, HIVST acceptors were more likely to be very happy with their overall testing experience (73% vs. 47% of visits, p = 0.003) and were more likely to say they would use HIVST in the future (96% vs. 76%, p < 0.001). Women who accepted HIVST had shorter visits than those choosing standard provider-initiated HIV testing (median [IQR]: 33 [32, 38] vs. 54 [41.5, 81] minutes, p = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

In this pilot evaluation in Kenya, about one-third of women using PrEP opted for HIVST over provider-initiated testing, and those choosing HIVST spent less time in the clinic and were generally satisfied with their experience. HIVST in PrEP delivery is feasible and has the potential to simplify PrEP delivery and give clients testing autonomy. Additional studies are needed to explore optimal HIV retesting strategies in PrEP delivery, including the use of HIVST in PrEP at a larger scale and in different settings.

Sexual Behavior and Perceived HIV Risk Among HIV-Negative Members of Serodiscordant Couples in East Africa

HIV risk perception may influence the use of HIV prevention interventions. Using data from HIV-negative adults enrolled in a study of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and antiretroviral therapy for HIV-serodiscordant couples in Kenya and Uganda, we examined associations between: (1) condom use and risk perception and (2) risk perception and PrEP adherence. Two-thirds of HIV-negative partners reported condomless sex with their HIV-positive partner or another partner in the month prior to study enrollment. Compared to those who reported no condomless sex, participants who reported condomless sex during the month prior to study visit had fivefold higher odds of reporting "high risk" vs "no risk" perception (36.3 versus 10.9%: aOR 4.9, 95% CI 3.4-6.9). Reporting condomless sex in the most recent sex act was associated with increased odds of perceiving some HIV risk (aOR for high risk = 7.3, 95% CI 4.9-10.8; aOR for moderate risk = 4.8, 95% CI 3.5-6.7; aOR for low risk = 3.5, 95% CI 2.7-4.6). We found no significant association between risk perception and PrEP adherence. Sexual behavior aligned with perceived HIV risk, which can facilitate an HIV-negative individual's decisions about PrEP use.

Impact of Tenofovir-Based Pre-exposure Prophylaxis on Biomarkers of Bone Formation, Bone Resorption, and Bone Mineral Metabolism in HIV-Negative Adults

BACKGROUND

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with emtricitabine (FTC)/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) reduces the risk of HIV seroconversion but may promote bone mineral density (BMD) decline. The mechanisms of BMD decline with FTC/TDF remain unclear, and studies in HIV-positive individuals have been confounded by the effects of HIV and concomitant antiretroviral medications. We evaluated the impact of FTC/TDF on biomarkers of bone remodeling and bone mineral metabolism in HIV-negative men and women enrolled in the Partners PrEP Study.

METHODS

In a random sample of HIV-negative participants randomized to FTC/TDF PrEP (n = 50) or placebo (n = 50), serum parathyroid hormone (PTH), bone biomarkers (C-telopeptide, procollagen 1 intact N-terminal propeptide, and sclerostin), and plasma fibroblast growth factor 23 were measured at baseline and month 24, and the percentage change was compared between groups. In a complementary analysis, we compared the change in biomarkers between participants with and without a 25% decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) on FTC/TDF.

RESULTS

Baseline characteristics were similar between the groups (median age, 38 years; 40% women). Vitamin D insufficiency was common, but baseline GFR and PTH were in the normal range. We observed a significantly greater percent increase in serum C-telopeptide in participants randomized to FTC/TDF vs placebo (P = .03), suggesting an increase in bone remodeling. We observed no differences in the other biomarkers, or in a separate analysis comparing participants with and without a decline in GFR.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased bone remodeling may mediate the BMD decline observed with tenofovir-containing PrEP and antiretroviral therapy, independent of a TDF-mediated decrease in kidney function.

Demographic, psychosocial and clinical factors associated with postpartum depression in Kenyan women

BACKGROUND

Few longitudinal studies have examined associations between risk factors during pregnancy and mental health outcomes during the postpartum period. We used a cohort study design to estimate the prevalence, incidence and correlates of significant postpartum depressive symptoms in Kenyan women.

METHODS

We recruited adult women residing in an urban, resource-poor setting and attending maternal and child health clinics in two public hospitals in Nairobi, Kenya. A translated Kiswahili Edinburgh Postpartum Depression Scale was used to screen for depressive symptoms at baseline assessment in the 3rd trimester and follow up assessment at 6-10 weeks postpartum. Information was collected on potential demographic, psychosocial and clinical risk variables. Potential risk factors for postpartum depression were evaluated using multivariate logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Out of the 171 women who were followed up at 6-10 weeks postpartum, 18.7% (95% CI: 13.3-25.5) were found to have postpartum depression using an EPDS cut off of 10. In multivariate analyses, the odds of having postpartum depression was increased more than seven-fold in the presence of conflict with partner (OR = 7.52, 95% CI: 2.65-23.13). The association between antepartum and postpartum depression was quite strong but did not reach statistical significance (OR = 3.37, 95% CI: 0.98-11.64).

CONCLUSIONS

The high prevalence of significant postnatal depressive symptoms among Kenyan women underscores the need for addressing this public health burden. Depression screening and psychosocial support interventions that address partner conflict resolution should be offered as part of maternal health care.

Covariate-adjusted Spearman's rank correlation with probability-scale residuals

It is desirable to adjust Spearman's rank correlation for covariates, yet existing approaches have limitations. For example, the traditionally defined partial Spearman's correlation does not have a sensible population parameter, and the conditional Spearman's correlation defined with copulas cannot be easily generalized to discrete variables. We define population parameters for both partial and conditional Spearman's correlation through concordance-discordance probabilities. The definitions are natural extensions of Spearman's rank correlation in the presence of covariates and are general for any orderable random variables. We show that they can be neatly expressed using probability-scale residuals (PSRs). This connection allows us to derive simple estimators. Our partial estimator for Spearman's correlation between X and Y adjusted for Z is the correlation of PSRs from models of X on Z and of Y on Z, which is analogous to the partial Pearson's correlation derived as the correlation of observed-minus-expected residuals. Our conditional estimator is the conditional correlation of PSRs. We describe estimation and inference, and highlight the use of semiparametric cumulative probability models, which allow preservation of the rank-based nature of Spearman's correlation. We conduct simulations to evaluate the performance of our estimators and compare them with other popular measures of association, demonstrating their robustness and efficiency. We illustrate our method in two applications, a biomarker study and a large survey.

Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015).

METHODS

We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices.

FINDINGS

In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59·3 (95% uncertainty interval 56·8-61·8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85·5 (84·2-86·5) in Iceland to 20·4 (15·4-24·9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0·88) and the MDG index (r2=0·92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0-10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7-13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1-8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened.

INTERPRETATION

GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.

METHODS

We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.

INTERPRETATION

At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development.

METHODS

We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate.

FINDINGS

Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs.

INTERPRETATION

Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of cutaneous leishmaniasis: a cross-sectional analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

High-quality epidemiological studies evaluating the burden of cutaneous leishmaniasis worldwide are lacking. We compared the burden of cutaneous leishmaniasis in each country to the overall global burden and assessed the equality of cutaneous leishmaniasis burden across different countries and regions.

METHODS

Data were extracted from scientific literature, hospital sources, country reports, and WHO sources on the prevalence of sequalae of both acute and chronic cutaneous leishmaniasis. Prevalence data were combined with a disability weight to yield years lived with disability. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) are a sum of the years lived with disability and years of life lost (or mortality, assumed to be zero). We compared DALYs due to cutaneous leishmaniasis for 152 countries using standard Z score analysis with Bonferroni correction (p<0·003) and generation of Lorenz curves with a Gini coefficient.

FINDINGS

In 2013, the global mean age-standardised DALYs for cutaneous leishmaniasis was 0·58 per 100 000 people. Nine countries had significantly greater DALYs from cutaneous leishmaniasis than the mean: Afghanistan (87·0), Sudan (20·2), Syria (9·2), Yemen (6·2), Iraq (6·0), Burkina Faso (4·8), Bolivia (4·6), Haiti (4·1), and Peru (4·0). The Gini coefficient was 0·89. Andean Latin America, North Africa and Middle East, western sub-Saharan Africa, and south Asia had the highest DALYs from cutaneous leishmaniasis. Among males, Palestine had the highest incidence rates (616·2 cases per 100 000 people) followed by Afghanistan (566·4), Syria (357·1), and Nicaragua (354·8). Among females, Afghanistan had the highest incidence rates (623·9) followed by Syria (406·3), Palestine (222·1), and Nicaragua (180·8). Similar proportions of males and females had cutaneous leishmaniasis in most countries with a high incidence.

INTERPRETATION

The burden from cutaneous leishmaniasis mainly falls on countries in Africa and the Middle East. Global and national data on the burden of cutaneous leishmaniasis disease are pivotal to promote field studies and initiate behavioural change.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Improving the large scale purification of the HIV microbicide, griffithsin

BACKGROUND

Griffithsin is a broad spectrum antiviral lectin that inhibits viral entry and maturation processes through binding clusters of oligomannose glycans on viral envelope glycoproteins. An efficient, scaleable manufacturing process for griffithsin active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) is essential for particularly cost-sensitive products such as griffithsin -based topical microbicides for HIV-1 prevention in resource poor settings. Our previously published purification method used ceramic filtration followed by two chromatography steps, resulting in a protein recovery of 30%. Our objective was to develop a scalable purification method for griffithsin expressed in Nicotiana benthamiana plants that would increase yield, reduce production costs, and simplify manufacturing techniques. Considering the future need to transfer griffithsin manufacturing technology to resource poor areas, we chose to focus modifying the purification process, paying particular attention to introducing simple, low-cost, and scalable procedures such as use of temperature, pH, ion concentration, and filtration to enhance product recovery.

RESULTS

We achieved >99% pure griffithsin API by generating the initial green juice extract in pH 4 buffer, heating the extract to 55°C, incubating overnight with a bentonite MgCl2 mixture, and final purification with Capto™ multimodal chromatography. Griffithsin extracted with this protocol maintains activity comparable to griffithsin purified by the previously published method and we are able to recover a substantially higher yield: 88 ± 5% of griffithsin from the initial extract. The method was scaled to produce gram quantities of griffithsin with high yields, low endotoxin levels, and low purification costs maintained.

CONCLUSIONS

The methodology developed to purify griffithsin introduces and develops multiple tools for purification of recombinant proteins from plants at an industrial scale. These tools allow for robust cost-effective production and purification of griffithsin. The methodology can be readily scaled to the bench top or industry and process components can be used for purification of additional proteins based on biophysical characteristics.