Whole of government approaches to accelerate adolescent success: efficiency and financing considerations

The multiple domains of development covered by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) present a practical challenge for governments. This is particularly acute in highly resource-constrained settings which use a sector-by-sector approach to structure financing and prioritization. One potentially under-prioritized solution is to implement interventions with the potential to simultaneously improve multiple outcomes across sectors, what United Nations Development Programme refer to as development 'accelerators'. An increasing number of accelerators are being identified in the literature. There are, however, challenges associated with the evaluation and implementation of accelerators. First, as accelerators have multiple benefits, possibly in different sectors, they will be undervalued if the priority setting is conducted sector-by-sector. Second, even if their value is recognized, accelerators may not be adopted if doing so clashes with any of the multiple competing interests policymakers consider, of which efficiency/social desirability is but one. To illustrate the first challenge, and outline a possible solution, we conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing the implementation of three sector-specific interventions to an accelerator, first using a sector-by-sector planning perspective, then a whole of government approach. The case study demonstrates how evaluating the cost-effectiveness of interventions sector-by-sector can lead to suboptimal efficiency rankings and overlook interventions that are efficient from a whole of government perspective. We then examine why recommendations based on a whole of government approach to evaluation are unlikely to be heeded. To overcome this second challenge, we outline a menu of existing and novel financing mechanisms that aim to address the mismatch between political incentives and logistical constraints in the priority setting and the economic evaluation evidence for cost-effective accelerators. These approaches to financing accelerators have the potential to improve efficiency, and in doing so, progress towards the SDGs, by aligning political incentives more closely with recommendations based on efficiency rankings.

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of economic strengthening and parenting support for preventing violence against adolescents in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa: An economic modelling study using non-randomised data

There is limited evidence around the cost-effectiveness of interventions to reduce violence against children in low- and middle-income countries. We used a decision-analytic model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of three intervention scenarios for reducing adolescent emotional, physical, and sexual abuse in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. The intervention scenarios were: 1) Community grant outreach to link households to South Africa's Child Support Grant (CSG) if they are eligible, but not receiving it; 2) Group-based parenting support; and 3) Group-based parenting support 'plus' linkage to the CSG. We estimated average cost-effectiveness ratios (ACERs) for intervention scenarios over a ten-year time horizon, and compared them to a South Africa-specific willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold (USD3390). Health effects were expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. Our model considered four combinations of routine service versus trial-based costing, and population-average versus high prevalence of violence. Under routine service costing, ACERs for grant outreach and parenting support were below the WTP threshold when considering a population-average prevalence of violence USD2850 (Lower: USD1840-Upper: USD10,500) and USD2620 (USD1520-USD9800) per DALY averted, respectively; and a high prevalence of violence USD1320 (USD908-USD5180) and USD1340 (USD758-USD4910) per DALY averted, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness of parenting support plus grant linkage relative to parenting support alone was USD462 (USD346-USD1610) and USD225 (USD150-USD811) per DALY averted at a population-average and high prevalence of violence, respectively. Under trial-based costing, only the ACER for grant outreach was below the WTP threshold when considering a high prevalence of violence USD2580 (USD1640-USD9370) per DALY averted. Confidence intervals for all ACERs crossed the WTP threshold. In conclusion, grant outreach and parenting support are likely to be cost-effective intervention scenarios for reducing violence against adolescents if they apply routine service costing and reach high risk groups. Combining parenting support with grant linkage is likely to be more cost-effective than parenting support alone.

Protective factors for adolescent sexual risk behaviours and experiences linked to HIV infection in South Africa: a three-wave longitudinal analysis of caregiving, education, food security, and social protection

BACKGROUND

Structural interventions are endorsed to enhance biomedical and behavioural HIV prevention programmes for adolescents. Aiming to inform future interventions, we evaluated longitudinal associations between six protective factors that link closely to existing structural HIV prevention interventions, and five sexual risk behaviours for HIV transmission in a cohort of adolescents in South Africa.

METHODS

We used three rounds of data between 2014-2018 on 1046 adolescents living with HIV and 473 age-matched community peers in South Africa's Eastern Cape (Observations = 4402). We estimated sex-specific associations between six time-varying protective factors - number of social grants, education enrolment, days with enough food, caregiver supervision, positive caregiving, and adolescent-caregiver communication; and five HIV risk behaviours - multiple sexual partners, transactional sex, age-disparate sex, condomless sex, and sex on substances. HIV risk behaviours were analysed separately in multivariable random effects within-between logistic regression models that accounted for correlation of repeated observations on the same individual. We calculated prevalence ratios (PR), contrasting adjusted probabilities of HIV risk behaviours at 'No' and 'Yes' for education enrolment, and average and maximum values for the other five protective factors.

RESULTS

The sample mean age was 15.29 (SD: 3.23) years and 58% were girls. Among girls, within-individuals, increases from mean to maximum scores in positive caregiving were associated with lower probability of transactional sex (PR = 0.79; 95%CI = 0.67-0.91); in caregiver supervision were associated with lower probability of transactional sex (PR = 0.75; 95%CI = 0.66-0.84), and age-disparate sex (PR = 0.84; 95%CI = 0.73-0.95); in adolescent-caregiver communication were associated with higher probability of transactional sex (PR = 1.70; 95%CI = 1.08-2.32); and in days with enough food at home were associated with lower probability of multiple sexual partners (PR = 0.89; 95%CI = 0.81-0.97), and transactional sex (PR = 0.82; 95%CI = 0.72-0.92). Change from non-enrolment in education to enrolment was associated with lower probability of age-disparate sex (PR = 0.49; 95%CI = 0.26-0.73). Between-individuals, relative to mean caregiver supervision scores, maximum scores were associated with lower probability of multiple sexual partners (PR = 0.59; 95%CI = 0.46-0.72), condomless sex (PR = 0.80; 95%CI = 0.69-0.91), and sex on substances (PR = 0.42; 95%CI = 0.26-0.59); and relative to non-enrolment, education enrolment was associated with lower probability of condomless sex (PR = 0.59; 95%CI = 0.39-0.78). Among boys, within-individuals, increases from mean to maximum scores in positive caregiving were associated with lower probability of transactional sex (PR = 0.77; 95%CI = 0.59-0.96), and higher probability of condomless sex (PR = 1.26; 95%CI = 1.08-1.43); in caregiver supervision were associated with lower probability of multiple sexual partners (PR = 0.73; 95%CI = 0.64-0.82), transactional sex (PR = 0.63; 95%CI = 0.50-0.76), age-disparate sex (PR = 0.67; 95%CI = 0.49-0.85), and sex on substances (PR = 0.61; 95%CI = 0.45-0.78), and in days with enough food at home were associated with lower probability of transactional sex (PR = 0.91; 95%CI = 0.84-0.98).

CONCLUSION

Effective structural interventions to improve food security and education enrolment among adolescent girls, and positive and supervisory caregiving among adolescent girls and boys are likely to translate into crucial reductions in sexual risk behaviours linked to HIV transmission in this population.

The social determinants of national tuberculosis incidence rates in 116 countries: a longitudinal ecological study between 2005-2015

BACKGROUND

Accelerating declines in tuberculosis (TB) incidence is paramount for achieving global goals set for 2030 by the Sustainable Development Goals and the End TB Strategy. The aim of this study was to identify key country-level social determinants of national TB incidence trends.

METHODS

This longitudinal ecological study used country-level data extracted from online databases from the period 2005-2015. We used multivariable Poisson regression models allowing for distinct within- and between-country effects to estimate associations between national TB incidence rates and 13 social determinants of health. The analysis was stratified by country income status.

RESULTS

The study sample included 48 low- and lower-middle-income countries (LLMICs) and 68 high- and upper-middle income countries (HUMICs), with a total of 528 and 748 observations between 2005-2015, respectively. National TB incidence rates declined in 108/116 countries between 2005-2015, with an average drop of 12.95% in LLMICs and 14.09% in HUMICs. Between LLMICs, higher Human Development Index (HDI), social protection spending, TB case detection, and TB treatment success were associated with lower TB incidence. Higher prevalence of HIV/AIDS was associated with higher TB incidence. Within LLMICs, increases in HDI over time were associated with lower TB incidence rates. Between HUMICs, higher HDI, health spending, and diabetes prevalence were associated with lower TB incidence, whereas higher prevalence of HIV/AIDS and alcohol-use were associated with higher TB incidence. Within HUMICs, increases in HIV/AIDS and diabetes prevalence over time were associated with higher TB incidence.

CONCLUSIONS

In LLMICs, TB incidence rates remain highest in countries with low human development, social protection spending and TB programme performance, and high rates of HIV/AIDS. Strengthening human development is likely to accelerate declines in TB incidence. In HUMICs, TB incidence rates remain highest in countries with low human development, health spending and diabetes prevalence, and high rates of HIV/AIDS and alcohol use. Here, slowing rising rates of HIV/AIDS and diabetes is likely to accelerate declines in TB incidence.

Understanding accelerators to improve SDG-related outcomes for adolescents-An investigation into the nature and quantum of additive effects of protective factors to guide policy making

Recent evidence has shown support for the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) accelerator concept, which highlights the need to identify interventions or programmatic areas that can affect multiple sustainable development goals (SDGs) at once to boost their achievement. These data have also clearly shown enhanced effects when interventions are used in combination, above and beyond the effect of single interventions. However, detailed knowledge is now required on optimum combinations and relative gain in order to derive policy guidance. Which accelerators work for which outcomes, what combinations are optimum, and how many combinations are needed to maximise effect? The current study utilised pooled data from the Young Carers (n = 1402) and Child Community Care (n = 446) studies. Data were collected at baseline (n = 1848) and at a 1 to 1.5- year follow-up (n = 1740) from children and young adolescents aged 9-13 years, living in South Africa. Measures in common between the two databases were used to generate five accelerators (caregiver praise, caregiver monitoring, food security, living in a safe community, and access to community-based organizations) and to investigate their additive effects on 14 SDG-related outcomes. Predicted probabilities and predicted probability differences were calculated for each SDG outcome under the presence of none to five accelerators to determine optimal combinations. Results show that various accelerator combinations are effective, though different combinations are needed for different outcomes. Some accelerators ramified across multiple outcomes. Overall, the presence of up to three accelerators was associated with marked improvements over multiple outcomes. The benefit of targeting access to additional accelerators, with additional costs, needs to be weighed against the relative gains to be achieved with high quality but focused interventions. In conclusion, the current data show the detailed impact of various protective factors and provides implementation guidance for policy makers in targeting and distributing interventions to maximise effect and expenditure. Future work should investigate multiplicative effects and synergistic interactions between accelerators.

Multiple Impacts of Ethiopia's Health Extension Program on Adolescent Health and Well-Being: A Quasi-Experimental Study 2002-2013

PURPOSE

Ethiopia has registered remarkable achievements in reaching global development goals, including reducing child marriage. Policymakers are keen to understand which investments have contributed to this. We evaluated the association between Ethiopia's Health Extension Program (HEP) and 12 adolescent health and wellbeing outcomes.

METHODS

We used Young Lives Ethiopia cohort data between 2002 and 2013. We evaluated associations between household support from HEP at age 15 and 12 adolescent outcomes spread across health, gender-based violence, education, and employment at age 19 using the inverse probability of treatment weighting propensity score approach, stratifying by sex. Adjusted probability differences (APDs) and adjusted mean differences (AMDs) were used to contrast exposure to HEP versus no exposure.

RESULTS

Of 775 adolescents with complete follow-up, 46% were female. Sixty-six percent of adolescents reported support from HEP, with higher rates of support in poorer, less educated, and rural households, particularly in Tigray Province. In boys, HEP was positively associated with education enrolment (APD: +20 percentage points [ppts], 95% confidence interval [CI]: +9 ppts, +31 ppts) and literacy (AMD: +6 ppts, 95% CI: +0.2, +11), and negatively associated with >4 hours in income-generating activities per day (APD: -19 ppts, 95% CI: -30 ppts, -9 ppts). In girls, HEP was positively associated with no child marriage (APD: +16 ppts, 95% CI: +4 ppts, +27 ppts), no adolescent pregnancy (APD: +17 ppts, 95% CI: +6 ppts, +28 ppts), education enrolment (APD: +27 ppts, 95% CI: +15 ppts, +39 ppts), literacy (AMD: +5 ppts, 95% CI: +0.2, +11), and numeracy (AMD: +8 ppts, 95% CI: +3; +13).

DISCUSSION

Policies promoting HEP are likely to have supported improvements in multiple areas of adolescents' lives in Ethiopia.

Food security reduces multiple HIV infection risks for high-vulnerability adolescent mothers and non-mothers in South Africa: a cross-sectional study

INTRODUCTION

Adolescent girls and young women, including adolescent mothers, in Southern Africa have high HIV seroconversion and transmission. We need to know which risks drive HIV infections, and what can reduce these risks.

METHODS

We interviewed 1712 adolescent girls and young women (11-23 years), including 1024 adolescent mothers who had conceived before age 20 and had a living child, from two health municipalities of South Africa's Eastern Cape Province between March 2018 and July 2019. Recruitment was through multiple community, school and health facility channels. Associations between adolescent motherhood and seven HIV risk behaviours (multiple sexual partners, transactional sex, age-disparate sex, condomless sex, sex on substances, alcohol use and not in education or employment) were investigated using the generalized estimating equations method for multiple outcomes specified with a logit link and adjusting for nine covariates. Using the same model, we investigated associations between having enough food at home every day in the past week (food security) and the same seven HIV risk behaviours. When we found evidence of moderation by HIV status, we report stratum-specific odds ratios.

RESULTS

Mean age was 17.51 years (SD: 2.54), 46% participants were living with HIV. Compared to non-mothers, adolescent mothers had lower odds of alcohol use (AOR = 0.47, 95% CI = 0.29-0.75), but higher odds of multiple sexual partners (AOR = 1.93, 95% CI = 1.35-2.74), age-disparate sex (HIV-uninfected AOR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.03-2.91; living with HIV AOR = 5.10, 95% CI = 2.98-8.73), condomless sex (AOR = 8.20, 95% CI = 6.03-11.13), sex on substances (AOR = 1.88, 95% CI = 1.10-3.21) and not in education/employment (HIV-uninfected AOR = 1.83, 95% CI = 1.19-2.83; living with HIV AOR = 6.30, 95% CI = 4.09-9.69). Among non-mothers, food security was associated with lower odds of multiple sexual partners (AOR = 0.45, 95% CI = 0.26-0.78), transactional sex (AOR = 0.32, 95% CI = 0.13-0.82) and not in education/employment (AOR = 0.48, 95% CI = 0.29-0.77). Among adolescent mothers, food security was associated with lower odds of transactional sex (AOR = 0.17, 95% CI = 0.10-0.28), age-disparate sex (AOR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.47-0.92), sex on substances (AOR = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.32-0.82), alcohol use (AOR = 0.45, 95% CI = 0.25-0.79) and not in education/employment (AOR = 0.56, 95% CI = 0.40-0.78).

CONCLUSIONS

Adolescent motherhood is associated with multiple vulnerabilities to HIV infection and transmission. Social protection measures that increase food security are likely to reduce HIV risk pathways for adolescent girls and young women, especially adolescent mothers.

Can a combination of interventions accelerate outcomes to deliver on the Sustainable Development Goals for young children? Evidence from a longitudinal study in South Africa and Malawi

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to identify possible entry points for interventions that can act as development accelerators for children and adolescents in South Africa and Malawi.

METHODS

This study was a secondary data analysis. Data were sourced from the Child Community Care longitudinal study which tracked child well-being outcomes among 989 children (4-13 years) and their caregivers affected by HIV and enrolled in community-based organizations in South Africa and Malawi. We examined associations between five hypothesized accelerating services/household provisions-measured as access at baseline and follow-up and 12 child outcomes that relate to indicators within the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) framework. We calculated the adjusted probabilities of experiencing each SDG aligned outcome conditional on receipt of single, combined or all identified accelerators.

RESULTS

The results show household food security is associated with positive child education and cognitive development outcomes. Cash grants were positively associated with nutrition and cognitive development outcomes. Living in a safe community was positively associated with all mental health outcomes. Experiencing a combination of two factors was associated with higher probability of positive child outcomes. However, experiencing all three accelerators was associated with better child outcomes, compared with any of the individual factors by themselves with substantial improvements noted in child education outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Combined delivery of specific interventions or services may yield greater improvements in child outcomes across different developmental domains. It is recommended that multiple support avenues in combination like improving food security and safe communities, as well as social protection grants, should be provided for vulnerable children to maximize the impact.

What do adolescents value most and is this affected by HIV status? Aspirations and self-perceptions from a large cohort study in South Africa

Hundreds of millions of adolescents across Africa face challenges in many areas of their lives, including elevated risk of HIV exposure and acquisition. Understanding the aspirations and self-perceptions of adolescents could play an important role in better targeting effective investments to break the cycle of adversity for adolescents and into their adulthood. Aiming to understand what adolescents value most for themselves and their future, we analysed and summarised cross-sectional data on the aspirations and self-perceptions of 1519 adolescents living in South Africa, overall and by HIV status. Outcomes were coded from participant responses to two open-ended questions: 'What job do you want to do when you grow up?' and 'What are you most proud of about yourself?'. Associations with HIV status were then evaluated using multivariable logistic regression adjusting for six sociodemographic factors measured from the same cohort. The sample had a mean age of 14 years, 55% were female, and 70% were living with HIV. The five most common job aspirations were: 'Health and Medical Science Professionals' (28%), 'Law Enforcement and Public Safety Professionals' (14%), 'Social Work Associate Professionals' (12%), 'Legal Professionals' (9%), and 'Education Institutions Teaching Professionals' (6%). The top five themes for what adolescents were most proud of about themselves were 'School performance' (22%), 'Outward appearance' (15%), 'Sports skills' (12%), 'Personality' (11%), and 'Behaviour at home/with elders' (7%). Adjusted analysis showed no evidence that HIV status was associated with important differences in aspirations or self-perceptions. In conclusion, adolescents facing high levels of adversity in South Africa hold high value for their education and aspirations for their futures. Policies and initiatives should focus on meeting these aspirations as vehicles for development, independent of their HIV status. Therefore, more needs to be done to not just help adolescents survive but thrive into adulthood.

Accelerating progress towards improved mental health and healthy behaviours in adolescents living in adversity: findings from a longitudinal study in South Africa

Adolescents exposed to high levels of adversity are vulnerable to developing mental health challenges, with long-lasting adverse consequences. Promoting the psychological well-being of adolescents and protecting them from adverse experiences is crucial for their quality of life. There is a need for evidence on which combinations of protective factors can improve the wellbeing of adolescents to inform future programming efforts. We used data from a longitudinal study that took place in Khayelitsha, South Africa, a semi-urban impoverished community in Cape Town. Data were collected from adolescents when they were 12-14 years of age (n = 333) and again at follow-up when they were aged 16-19 years (n = 314). A path analysis was used to estimate associations between access to service, food security, safe environment, family support, and social support and five outcomes related to adolescent mental health and risky behaviours. The fitted model was used to calculate adjusted mean differences comparing different combinations of risk factors. Two protective factors (food security and safe environment) were positively associated with three outcomes relating to mental health and the absence of risky behaviours. Further investigation revealed that the presence of high food security and safer environments was associated with higher adjusted mean scores: +16.2% (p < .0001) in no substance use; +16.5% (p < .0001) in no internalising behaviour, +19.5% (p < .0001) in self-esteem; +12.2% (p < .0001) in positive peer relationships; and +11.4% (p < .0001) in no suicidal ideation. Interventions targeting adolescents, that aim to improve food security together with improving the safety of their environment, are likely to impact their well-being.

Clinic and care: associations with adolescent antiretroviral therapy adherence in a prospective cohort in South Africa

OBJECTIVE

Adolescent antiretroviral treatment (ART) adherence remains critically low. We lack research testing protective factors across both clinic and care environments.

DESIGN

A prospective cohort of adolescents living with HIV (sample n = 969, 55% girls, baseline mean age 13.6) in the Eastern Cape Province in South Africa were interviewed at baseline and 18-month follow-up (2014-2015, 2015-2016). We traced all adolescents ever initiated on treatment in 52 government health facilities (90% uptake, 93% 18-month retention, 1.2% mortality).

METHODS

Clinical records were collected; standardized questionnaires were administered by trained data collectors in adolescents' language of choice. Probit within-between regressions and average adjusted probability calculations were used to examine associations of caregiving and clinic factors with adherence, controlling for household structure, socioeconomic and HIV factors.

RESULTS

Past-week ART adherence was 66% (baseline), 65% (follow-up), validated against viral load in subsample. Within-individual changes in three factors were associated with improved adherence: no physical and emotional violence (12.1 percentage points increase in adjusted probability of adherence, P < 0.001), improvement in perceived healthcare confidentiality (7.1 percentage points, P < 0.04) and shorter travel time to the clinic (13.7 percentage points, P < 0.02). In combination, improvement in violence prevention, travel time and confidentiality were associated with 81% probability of ART adherence, compared with 47% with a worsening in all three.

CONCLUSION

Adolescents living with HIV need to be safe at home and feel safe from stigma in an accessible clinic. This will require active collaboration between health and child protection systems, and utilization of effective violence prevention interventions.

Bullying and ART Nonadherence Among South African ALHIV: Effects, Risks, and Protective Factors

BACKGROUND

Identifying risk and protective factors for adolescent antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence is a public health priority, given high HIV-related mortality in this population. An area that merits further investigation is the relationship between bullying victimization, mental health problems, and ART nonadherence among adolescents living with HIV (ALHIV). However, no known studies assess effects of bullying on adolescent nonadherence or risk and protective factors that could moderate this relationship.

SETTING

This study investigates (1) the direct longitudinal relationship between bullying exposure and ART nonadherence, and the indirect relationship via psychological distress, and (2) potential risk and modifiable protective factors moderating these pathways, among vertically and horizontally infected ALHIV who initiated treatment across 53 public health care facilities in a South African health district.

METHODS

Survey data were collected at 2 time points, between 2014 and 2017, with 1046 ALHIV (94% retention). Various mediation and moderated mediation models were run as part of a staged analysis approach.

RESULTS

A significant longitudinal relationship was found between bullying victimization and nonadherence, operating indirectly through psychological distress [B = 0.07; 95% confidence interval (CI): (0.03 to 0.13)]. Moderation analyses indicated that older adolescents exposed to bullying are more at risk of nonadherence [B = 0.52; 95% CI: (0.07 to 0.97) P < 0.05], and parental monitoring is a potential protective factor buffering indirect effects of bullying on nonadherence [B = -0.22; 95% CI: (-0.42 to -0.02) P < 0.05].

CONCLUSIONS

These findings underscore the importance of interventions that address bullying and psychological distress, and strengthen parental monitoring, particularly among older ALHIV.

Violence prevention accelerators for children and adolescents in South Africa: A path analysis using two pooled cohorts

BACKGROUND

The INSPIRE framework was developed by 10 global agencies as the first global package for preventing and responding to violence against children. The framework includes seven complementary strategies. Delivering all seven strategies is a challenge in resource-limited contexts. Consequently, governments are requesting additional evidence to inform which 'accelerator' provisions can simultaneously reduce multiple types of violence against children.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We pooled data from two prospective South African adolescent cohorts including Young Carers (2010-2012) and Mzantsi Wakho (2014-2017). The combined sample size was 5,034 adolescents. Each cohort measured six self-reported violence outcomes (sexual abuse, transactional sexual exploitation, physical abuse, emotional abuse, community violence victimisation, and youth lawbreaking) and seven self-reported INSPIRE-aligned protective factors (positive parenting, parental monitoring and supervision, food security at home, basic economic security at home, free schooling, free school meals, and abuse response services). Associations between hypothesised protective factors and violence outcomes were estimated jointly in a sex-stratified multivariate path model, controlling for baseline outcomes and socio-demographics and correcting for multiple-hypothesis testing using the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure. We calculated adjusted probability estimates conditional on the presence of no, one, or all protective factors significantly associated with reduced odds of at least three forms of violence in the path model. Adjusted risk differences (ARDs) and adjusted risk ratios (ARRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were also calculated. The sample mean age was 13.54 years, and 56.62% were female. There was 4% loss to follow-up. Positive parenting, parental monitoring and supervision, and food security at home were each associated with lower odds of three or more violence outcomes (p < 0.05). For girls, the adjusted probability of violence outcomes was estimated to be lower if all three of these factors were present, as compared to none of them: sexual abuse, 5.38% and 1.64% (ARD: -3.74% points, 95% CI -5.31 to -2.16, p < 0.001); transactional sexual exploitation, 10.07% and 4.84% (ARD: -5.23% points, 95% CI -7.26 to -3.20, p < 0.001); physical abuse, 38.58% and 23.85% (ARD: -14.72% points, 95% CI -19.11 to -10.33, p < 0.001); emotional abuse, 25.39% and 12.98% (ARD: -12.41% points, 95% CI -16.00 to -8.83, p < 0.001); community violence victimisation, 36.25% and 28.37% (ARD: -7.87% points, 95% CI -11.98 to -3.76, p < 0.001); and youth lawbreaking, 18.90% and 11.61% (ARD: -7.30% points, 95% CI -10.50 to -4.09, p < 0.001). For boys, the adjusted probability of violence outcomes was also estimated to be lower if all three factors were present, as compared to none of them: sexual abuse, 2.39% to 1.80% (ARD: -0.59% points, 95% CI -2.24 to 1.05, p = 0.482); transactional sexual exploitation, 6.97% to 4.55% (ARD: -2.42% points, 95% CI -4.77 to -0.08, p = 0.043); physical abuse from 37.19% to 25.44% (ARD: -11.74% points, 95% CI -16.91 to -6.58, p < 0.001); emotional abuse from 23.72% to 10.72% (ARD: -13.00% points, 95% CI -17.04 to -8.95, p < 0.001); community violence victimisation from 41.28% to 35.41% (ARD: -5.87% points, 95% CI -10.98 to -0.75, p = 0.025); and youth lawbreaking from 22.44% to 14.98% (ARD -7.46% points, 95% CI -11.57 to -3.35, p < 0.001). Key limitations were risk of residual confounding and not having information on protective factors related to all seven INSPIRE strategies.

CONCLUSION

In this cohort study, we found that positive and supervisory caregiving and food security at home are associated with reduced risk of multiple forms of violence against children. The presence of all three of these factors may be linked to greater risk reduction as compared to the presence of one or none of these factors. Policies promoting action on positive and supervisory caregiving and food security at home are likely to support further efficiencies in the delivery of INSPIRE.

Cash transfers to enhance TB control: lessons from the HIV response

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization prioritises a more holistic global response to end the tuberculosis (TB) epidemic by 2030. Based on experiences in the HIV response, social protection, and in particular cash transfers, show promise for contributing to this. Currently, individual-level evidence for the potential of cash transfers to prevent TB by addressing the structural social determinants of disease is lacking. To identify priority actions for the TB research agenda, we appraised efforts by the HIV response to establish the role of cash transfers in preventing HIV infection.

MAIN BODY

The HIV response has evaluated the effects of cash transfers on risky sexual behaviours and HIV incidence. Work has also evaluated the added effects of supplementing cash transfers with psychosocial support. The HIV response has focused research on populations with disproportionate HIV risk, and used a mix of explanatory evaluations, which use ideal conditions, and pragmatic evaluations, which use operational conditions, to generate evidence that is both causally valid and applicable to the real world. It has always collaborated with multiple stakeholders in funding and evaluating projects. Learning from the HIV response, priority actions for the TB response should be to investigate the effect of cash transfers on intermediary social determinants of active TB disease, and TB incidence, as well as the added effects of supplementing cash transfers with psychosocial support. Work should be focused on key groups in high burden settings, and look to build a combination of explanatory and pragmatic evidence to inform policy decisions in this field. To achieve this, there is an urgent need to facilitate collaborations between groups interested in evaluating the impact of cash transfers on TB risk.

CONCLUSIONS

The HIV response highlights several priority actions necessary for the TB response to establish the potential of cash transfers to prevent TB by addresing the structural social determinants of disease.

Amateur endurance athletes’ use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs: a cross-sectional survey

Objective

To explore amateur endurance athletes’ use and views about non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs).

Methods

An online cross-sectional survey of amateur athletes at four athletic clubs.

Key findings

Of a sample of 129 of amateur athletes, 68% (n = 88) reported using NSAIDs in the previous 12 months (84.4% in triathletes, 70.9% in runners and 52.5% in cyclists). Overall, ibuprofen was the most popular drug (n = 48). There was a lack of knowledge of adverse drug reactions, with only 26% of use advised by a doctor or pharmacist.

Conclusions

There is high usage of NSAIDs in amateur athletes, including before and during events, largely without professional health advice. Informational needs of amateur athletes are not being met.

Comparison of two cash transfer strategies to prevent catastrophic costs for poor tuberculosis-affected households in low- and middle-income countries: An economic modelling study

BACKGROUND

Illness-related costs for patients with tuberculosis (TB) ≥20% of pre-illness annual household income predict adverse treatment outcomes and have been termed "catastrophic." Social protection initiatives, including cash transfers, are endorsed to help prevent catastrophic costs. With this aim, cash transfers may either be provided to defray TB-related costs of households with a confirmed TB diagnosis (termed a "TB-specific" approach); or to increase income of households with high TB risk to strengthen their economic resilience (termed a "TB-sensitive" approach). The impact of cash transfers provided with each of these approaches might vary. We undertook an economic modelling study from the patient perspective to compare the potential of these 2 cash transfer approaches to prevent catastrophic costs.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Model inputs for 7 low- and middle-income countries (Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Ghana, Mexico, Tanzania, and Yemen) were retrieved by literature review and included countries' mean patient TB-related costs, mean household income, mean cash transfers, and estimated TB-specific and TB-sensitive target populations. Analyses were completed for drug-susceptible (DS) TB-related costs in all 7 out of 7 countries, and additionally for drug-resistant (DR) TB-related costs in 1 of the 7 countries with available data. All cost data were reported in 2013 international dollars ($). The target population for TB-specific cash transfers was poor households with a confirmed TB diagnosis, and for TB-sensitive cash transfers was poor households already targeted by countries' established poverty-reduction cash transfer programme. Cash transfers offered in countries, unrelated to TB, ranged from $217 to $1,091/year/household. Before cash transfers, DS TB-related costs were catastrophic in 6 out of 7 countries. If cash transfers were provided with a TB-specific approach, alone they would be insufficient to prevent DS TB catastrophic costs in 4 out of 6 countries, and when increased enough to prevent DS TB catastrophic costs would require a budget between $3.8 million (95% CI: $3.8 million-$3.8 million) and $75 million (95% CI: $50 million-$100 million) per country. If instead cash transfers were provided with a TB-sensitive approach, alone they would be insufficient to prevent DS TB-related catastrophic costs in any of the 6 countries, and when increased enough to prevent DS TB catastrophic costs would require a budget between $298 million (95% CI: $219 million-$378 million) and $165,367 million (95% CI: $134,085 million-$196,425 million) per country. DR TB-related costs were catastrophic before and after TB-specific or TB-sensitive cash transfers in 1 out of 1 countries. Sensitivity analyses showed our findings to be robust to imputation of missing TB-related cost components, and use of 10% or 30% instead of 20% as the threshold for measuring catastrophic costs. Key limitations were using national average data and not considering other health and social benefits of cash transfers.

CONCLUSIONS

A TB-sensitive cash transfer approach to increase all poor households' income may have broad benefits by reducing poverty, but is unlikely to be as effective or affordable for preventing TB catastrophic costs as a TB-specific cash transfer approach to defray TB-related costs only in poor households with a confirmed TB diagnosis. Preventing DR TB-related catastrophic costs will require considerable additional investment whether a TB-sensitive or a TB-specific cash transfer approach is used.

The Utility of Blood Culture Fluid for the Molecular Diagnosis of Leptospira: A Prospective Evaluation

Leptospirosis is an important zoonosis worldwide, with infections occurring after exposure to contaminated water. Despite being a global problem, laboratory diagnosis remains difficult with culture results taking up to 3 months, serology being retrospective by nature, and polymerase chain reaction showing limited sensitivity. Leptospira have been shown to survive and multiply in blood culture media, and we hypothesized that extracting DNA from incubated blood culture fluid (BCF), followed by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) could improve the accuracy and speed of leptospira diagnosis. We assessed this retrospectively, using preincubated BCF of Leptospira spp. positive (N = 109) and negative (N = 63) febrile patients in Vientiane, Lao PDR. The final method showed promising sensitivities of 66% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 55–76) and 59% (95% CI: 49–68) compared with direct or direct and indirect testing combined, as the respective reference standards (specificities > 95%). Despite these promising diagnostic parameters, a subsequent prospective evaluation in a Lao hospital population (N = 352) showed that the sensitivity was very low (∼30%) compared with qPCR on venous blood samples. The disappointingly low sensitivity does suggest that venous blood samples are preferable for the clinical microbiology laboratory, although BCF might be an alternative if leptospirosis is only suspected postadmission after antibiotics have been used.