Ecology, evolution, and epidemiology of zoonotic and vector-borne infectious diseases in French Guiana: Transdisciplinarity does matter to tackle new emerging threats

French Guiana is a European ultraperipheric region located on the northern Atlantic coast of South America. It constitutes an important forested region for biological conservation in the Neotropics. Although very sparsely populated, with its inhabitants mainly concentrated on the Atlantic coastal strip and along the two main rivers, it is marked by the presence and development of old and new epidemic disease outbreaks, both research and health priorities. In this review paper, we synthetize 15 years of multidisciplinary and integrative research at the interface between wildlife, ecosystem modification, human activities and sociodemographic development, and human health. This study reveals a complex epidemiological landscape marked by important transitional changes, facilitated by increased interconnections between wildlife, land-use change and human occupation and activity, human and trade transportation, demography with substantial immigration, and identified vector and parasite pharmacological resistance. Among other French Guianese characteristics, we demonstrate herein the existence of more complex multi-host disease life cycles than previously described for several disease systems in Central and South America, which clearly indicates that today the greater promiscuity between wildlife and humans due to demographic and economic pressures may offer novel settings for microbes and their hosts to circulate and spread. French Guiana is a microcosm that crystallizes all the current global environmental, demographic and socioeconomic change conditions, which may favor the development of ancient and future infectious diseases.

Fatal injuries and economic development in the population sample of Central and Eastern European Countries: the perspective of adolescents

Objectives

Researches consider the young generation (adolescents) to be the population group whose mortality from injury has the lowest effect on economic growth. The objective was to evaluate the relations between economic indicators and preventable injury mortality in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs), with a primary focus on adolescents.

Methods

The analyses included health indicators of preventable injury mortality and economic indicators that represent human development and economic growth in the CEECs from 1990 to 2016. The analytical process involved a population group divided by age (0–14 years: children, 15–24 years: adolescents, 25–74 years: adults) and gender. Descriptive analysis, cluster analysis and primarily panel regression analysis were used.

Results

Significant effects of economic indicators on drowning were found in all analysed relations. In the group of adolescents, significant effects of fatal falls were found. Overall, it can be concluded that the effects of fatal injuries are not homogenous between age and gender groups.

Conclusions

The effects of years and individual countries should be taken into account in the cross-sectional analyses. In terms of economic growth, public policies should focus on drowning in children, on falls in adolescents and on transport accidents, fire injuries and poisoning in adults.

Conceptualising metabolic disorder in Southern Africa: Biology, history and global health

This paper traces the history of the concept of metabolic disorder in global health and its application to the collection of health metrics relating to the 'epidemic' of non-communicable diseases in Southern Africa, with a focus on Malawi. Although the contemporary science of metabolism points to complexity and contingency, the application of a simplified version of 'metabolic disorder' or 'metabolic syndrome' as the supposed central driver of non-communicable disease in low- and middle-income countries runs the risk of obscuring the ways in which local circumstances and histories interact with global forces to produce epidemiological change. The paper discusses health data collection and its interpretation in Malawi to demonstrate how the use of this concept has led to a narrowing of the category of non-communicable disease and a neglect of the role of infectious disease in producing chronic conditions. Finally, the paper points to alternative approaches which might yield a better understanding of pressing health problems.

Transition of cancer in populations in India

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES

An assessment of transition of cancer in India during the past 30 years, according to changes in demographic and epidemiologic risk factors was undertaken.

MATERIALS & METHODS

Cancer registry data (http://www.ncdirindia.org), (population coverage <10%), was compared with transition in life-expectancy and prevalence on smoking, alcohol and obesity. We fitted linear regression to the natural logarithm of the estimated incidence rates of various cancer registries in India.

RESULTS

Burden of cancer in India increased from 0.6 million in 1991 to 1.4 million in 2015. Among males, common cancers are lung (12.0%), mouth (11.4%), prostate (7.0%), and tongue (7.0%) and among females, they are breast (21.0%), cervix-uteri (12.1%), ovary (6.9%), and lung (4.9%) in 2012. Increased life-expectancy and population growth as well as increased use of alcohol and increased prevalence of overweight/obesity reflected an increase in all cancers in both genders except a reduction in infection-related cancers such as cervix-uteri and tobacco-related cancers such as pharynx (excludes nasopharynx) and oesophagus.

INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSION

Transition in demographics and epidemiologic risk factors, reflected an increase in all cancers in both genders except a reduction in a few cancers. The increasing incidence of cancer and its associated factors demands a planned approach to reduce its burden. The burden assessment needs to be strengthened by increasing the population coverage of cancer registries. Continued effort for tobacco prevention and public health efforts for reducing obesity and alcohol consumption are needed to reduce the cancer burden.

Gut microbiota, short chain fatty acids, and obesity across the epidemiologic transition: the METS-Microbiome study protocol

BACKGROUND

While some of the variance observed in adiposity and weight change within populations can be accounted for by traditional risk factors, a new factor, the gut microbiota, has recently been associated with obesity. However, the causal mechanisms through which the gut microbiota and its metabolites, short chain fatty acids (SCFAs) influence obesity are unknown, as are the individual obesogenic effects of the individual SCFAs (butyrate, acetate and propionate). This study, METS-Microbiome, proposes to examine the influence of novel risk factors, the gut microbiota and SCFAs, on obesity, adiposity and weight change in an international established cohort spanning the epidemiologic transition.

METHODS

The parent study; Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS) is a well-established and ongoing prospective cohort study designed to assess the association between body composition, physical activity, and relative weight, weight gain and cardiometabolic disease risk in five diverse population-based samples in 2500 people of African descent. The cohort has been prospectively followed since 2009. Annual measures of obesity risk factors, including body composition, objectively measured physical activity and dietary intake, components which vary across the spectrum of social and economic development. In our new study; METS-Microbiome, in addition to continuing yearly measures of obesity risk, we will also measure gut microbiota and stool SCFAs in all contactable participants, and follow participants for a further 3 years, thus providing one of the largest gut microbiota population-based studies to date.

DISCUSSION

This new study capitalizes upon an existing, extensively well described cohort of adults of African-origin, with significant variability as a result of the widespread geographic distributions, and therefore variation in the environmental covariate exposures. The METS-Microbiome study will substantially advance the understanding of the role gut microbiota and SCFAs play in the development of obesity and provide novel obesity therapeutic targets targeting SCFAs producing features of the gut microbiota.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Registered NCT03378765 Date first posted: December 20, 2017.

"If we are waiting for the numbers alone, we will miss the point": a qualitative study of the perceived rise of food allergy and associated risk factors in the Greater Accra Region, Ghana

Background

Globally, food allergy [FA] is considered a growing health epidemic. While much of what is known comes from developed countries, there is growing interest in the epidemiology of FA in developing regions such as sub-Saharan Africa. Indeed, researchers are beginning to document the incidence and prevalence of FA and sensitization. The results outlined in this paper stem from an exploratory qualitative study examining the emergence of the health risk of FA in Ghana, a country undergoing epidemiologic changes.

Methods

Between June and August, 2015, we conducted thirty-seven (37) semi-structured in-depth interviews. This comprised seventeen (17) healthcare workers across 12 public and private hospitals and twenty (20) individuals with FA and families with allergic children. All interviews were recorded and transcribed verbatim. Transcripts were analyzed to develop thematic areas that characterize perceptions and experiences around FA.

Results

Three key broad themes arise from this study. First, FA is an emerging health risk, whose incidence is perceived to be increasing. Second, participants expressed mixed perceptions about the public health burden of FA. Third, participants identified individual and societal factors that may be influencing FA risks and susceptibility.

Conclusion

Our research suggests FA is a growing but unrecognized public health concern. There is the need for health policies and researchers to consider the full extent of ongoing epidemiologic changes for the health of populations in developing regions.

Quantifying Intrinsic and Extrinsic Contributions to Human Longevity: Application of a Two-Process Vitality Model to the Human Mortality Database

The rise in human life expectancy has involved declines in intrinsic and extrinsic mortality processes associated, respectively, with senescence and environmental challenges. To better understand the factors driving this rise, we apply a two-process vitality model to data from the Human Mortality Database. Model parameters yield intrinsic and extrinsic cumulative survival curves from which we derive intrinsic and extrinsic expected life spans (ELS). Intrinsic ELS, a measure of longevity acted on by intrinsic, physiological factors, changed slowly over two centuries and then entered a second phase of increasing longevity ostensibly brought on by improvements in old-age death reduction technologies and cumulative health behaviors throughout life. The model partitions the majority of the increase in life expectancy before 1950 to increasing extrinsic ELS driven by reductions in environmental, event-based health challenges in both childhood and adulthood. In the post-1950 era, the extrinsic ELS of females appears to be converging to the intrinsic ELS, whereas the extrinsic ELS of males is approximately 20 years lower than the intrinsic ELS.

Global Overview of the Epidemiology of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ACD) is the leading cause of mortality worldwide. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the global burden of ACD and its risk factors and to discuss the main challenges and opportunities for prevention. Publicly available data from the Global Burden of Disease Study were analyzed for ischemic heart disease (IHD), ischemic stroke and ACD risk factors. Data from the WHO Global Health Observatory were used to describe prevalence of diverse cardiometabolic risk factors. World Bank Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPc) information was used to categorize countries according to income level. Cardiovascular mortality decreased globally from 1990-2010 with important differences by GDPc; during 1990 there was a positive association between IHD mortality and GDPc. Higher-income countries had higher rates compared to those of lower-income countries. High levels of body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, glucose and cholesterol have a differential contribution to mortality by income group over time; high-income countries have been able to reduce the contribution from these risk factors in the last 20 years, whereas lower/middle income countries show an increasing trend in mortality attributable to high BMI and glucose. Although age-adjusted ACD mortality rate trends decreased globally, the absolute number of ACD deaths is increasing in part due to the growth of the population and aging, as well as to important lifestyle and food-system changes that likely attenuate gains in prevention. Population and individual level preventable causes of ACD must be aggressively and efficiently targeted in countries of lower economic development in order to reduce the growing burden of disease due to ACD.

Determinants of epidemiologic transition in rural Africa: the role of socioeconomic status and drinking water source

BACKGROUND

Many African countries experience a protracted epidemiologic transition, different from the classical transition in western societies. The factors driving this protracted transition are largely unknown. In northeast Ghana, we studied an ongoing epidemiologic transition and investigated the effects of socioeconomic status and drinking water source on the transition.

METHODS

During a 9-year period, we followed a cohort of almost 30 000 individuals and collected information on mortality and fertility rates. In addition, using the standards set out by the WHO, we obtained the causes of death by verbal autopsy. Individuals were stratified according to their socioeconomic status and the households' use of an improved or unimproved drinking water source.

RESULTS

Mortality rates decreased by -5.0% annually (p<0.001) and the main cause of death shifted from infectious to non-infectious diseases (p=0.014). General fertility rates and child-women ratios decreased annually by -12.7% (p<0.001) and -11.9% (p<0.001), respectively. There was no difference in the decline of mortality and fertility depending on socioeconomic status or drinking water source.

CONCLUSIONS

Factors other than socioeconomic status and drinking water source are responsible for the observed declines in mortality and fertility observed during the protracted epidemiologic transition. Identifying the specific determinants of the ongoing transition is of importance, as they could be targeted in order to further improve public health in rural African countries.

Seasonal variation in child and old-age mortality in rural Ghana

BACKGROUND

Mortality in tropical countries varies considerably from season to season. As many of these countries have seen mortality moving from child to old-age mortality, we have studied seasonal variation in child and old-age mortality in a rural area in Ghana that currently undergoes an epidemiologic transition.

METHODS

In an annual survey from 2002 through to 2011, we followed 29 642 individuals and obtained the cause and month of death from 1406 deceased individuals by making use of verbal autopsies.

RESULTS

When comparing the seasons, we observed a trend for higher mortality during the wet season. When comparing separate months, we observed 34% more deaths than expected in September (95% CI 1.04-1.69; p = 0.024) at the end of the wet season and 43% more deaths in April (95% CI 1.13-1.80; p = 0.004) at the end of the dry season, while there were 42% less deaths than expected in December (95% CI 0.52-0.70; p = 0.003), shortly after the wet season. Cause-specific analysis indicated that the peak at the end of the wet season was due to excess mortality from infectious diseases in children and older people alike, whereas the peak in old-age mortality at the end of the dry season was due to non-infectious causes in older people only.

CONCLUSIONS

Taken together, our data suggest that during the epidemiologic transition, mortality not only shifts from child to old-age and from infectious to non-infectious, but also from the wet to the dry season.

Deaths rates in public hospitals of eastern cape province of South Africa

BACKGROUND

South Africa (SA) is experiencing a rapid epidemiologic transition as a consequence of political, economic and social changes. In this study we described, based on hospital data, the mortality patterns of Non communicable Diseases (NCD), Communicable Diseases (CD), the NCD/CD ratios, and the trends of deaths.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional survey of all deaths occurring in several public hospitals in the Eastern Cape Province of SA between 2002 and 2006. Causes of deaths were coded according to the ICD 10 Edition.

RESULTS

A total of 107380 admissions responded to the inclusion criteria between 2002 and 2006. The crude death rate was 4.3% (n=4566) with a mean age of 46±21 years and a sex ratio of 3.1 men (n=3453): 1 woman (n=1113). Out of all deaths, there were 62.9% NCD (n=2872) vs. 37.1% CD (n=1694) with NCD/CD ratio of 1.7. The ratio NCD/CD deaths in men was 1.3 (n=1951/1502) vs. NCD/CD deaths in women of 1.9 (n=735/378). The peak of deaths was observed in winter season. The majority of NCD deaths were at age of 30-64 years, whereas the highest rate of CD deaths was at age< 30 years. The trend of deaths including the majority of NCD, increased from 2002 to 2006. There was a tendency of increase in tuberculosis deaths, but a tendency of decrease in HIV/AIDS deaths was from 2002 to 2006.

CONCLUSION

Non-communicable diseases are the leading causes of deaths in rural Eastern Cape province of SA facing Post-epidemiologic transition stages. We recommend overarching priority actions for the response to the Non-communicable Diseases: policy change, prevention, treatment, international cooperation, research, monitoring, accountability, and re-orientation of health systems.

Prospective investigation of major dietary patterns and risk of cardiovascular mortality in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Dietary pattern analysis is emerging as a practical, effective tool for relating comprehensive dietary intake to risk of cardiovascular disease mortality. However, no studies have applied this technique to a population outside of the developed world.

METHODS

We conducted prospective cohort analyses in 11,116 participants enrolled in the Health Effects of Arsenic Study in Araihazar, Bangladesh, measuring deaths attributable to disease of circulatory system, heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease. Participants were enrolled in 2000 and followed up for an average of 6.6 years. Dietary information was obtained through a previously validated food-frequency questionnaire at baseline.

RESULTS

Principal component analysis based on our comprehensive, 39 item FFQ yielded 3 dietary patterns: (i) a "balanced" pattern, comprised of steamed rice, red meat, fish, fruit and vegetables; (ii) an "animal protein" diet, which was more heavily weighted towards eggs, milk, red meat, poultry, bread, and vegetables; and (iii) a "gourd and root vegetable" diet that heavily relied on a variety of gourds, radishes, pumpkin, sweet potato, and spinach. We observed a positive association between increasing adherence to the animal protein diet and risk of death from both disease of the circulatory system and heart disease; the hazard ratios were 1.13 (95% CI, 1.00-1.28, p=0.05) and 1.17 (95% CI, 0.99-1.38, p=0.07), respectively, in relation to one standard deviation increase in the factor scores for the animal protein diet pattern, after controlling for age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, and energy intake. The positive association was more significant among ever smokers; the hazard ratios (95% CI) for deaths from disease of the circulatory system and heart disease were 1.17 (1.02-1.34) and 1.20 (1.00-1.45), respectively, in relation to one standard deviation increase in the factor scores for the animal protein diet pattern.

CONCLUSIONS

An animal protein-rich diet in rural Bangladesh may increase risk of heart disease mortality, especially among smokers. This emphasizes the need to further explore and address the impact of dietary patterns on cardiovascular disease in populations undergoing epidemiologic transition.