Towards malaria elimination: analysis of travel history and case forecasting using the SARIMA model in Limpopo Province

Despite various efforts and policy implementation aimed at controlling and eliminating malaria, imported malaria remains a major factor posing challenges in places that have made progress in malaria elimination. The persistence of malaria in Limpopo Province has largely been attributed to imported cases, thus reducing the pace of achieving the malaria-free target by 2025. Data from the Limpopo Malaria Surveillance Database System (2010-2020) was analyzed, and a seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was developed to forecast malaria incidence based on the incidence data's temporal autocorrelation. The study found that out of 57,288 people that were tested, 51,819 (90.5%) cases were local while 5469 (9.5%) cases were imported. Mozambique (44.9%), Zimbabwe (35.7%), and Ethiopia (8.5%) were the highest contributors of imported cases. The month of January recorded the highest incidence of cases while the least was in August. Analysis of the yearly figures showed an increasing trend and seasonal variation of recorded malaria cases. The SARIMA (3,1,1) X (3,1,0) [12] model used in predicting expected malaria case incidences for three consecutive years showed a decline in malaria incidences. The study demonstrated that imported malaria accounted for 9.5% of all cases. There is a need to re-focus on health education campaigns on malaria prevention methods and strengthening of indoor residual spray programs. Bodies collaborating toward malaria elimination in the Southern Africa region need to ensure a practical delivery of the objectives.

The outbreak of the monkeypox virus in the shadow of the pandemic

The human monkeypox virus (MPXV) was first identified in 1959. Since then, the incidence of the disease has been sporadic. The endemic regions were identified in Africa's central and western areas. However, the infection started to spread in 2017 to non-endemic regions such as North and South America, Europe, and Asia. Since May 2022, the non-endemic areas reported 62,635 till 20th September 2022. Although the monkeypox virus has a mortality of ≥ 10%, it showed only 82 mortalities worldwide in 2022. The common symptoms include chills, fever, fatigue, and skin lesions, and the complications include secondary respiratory tract infections, encephalitis, blindness, and severe diarrhea. The factors responsible for spreading the virus include improper handling and consumption of infected bushmeat, unprotected sexual intercourse, contact with an infected person, no smallpox vaccination, improper hygiene, lower diagnostic capacity, and strong travel history from the endemic regions. The therapeutic strategy is symptom-based treatment and supportive care. Antivirals and vaccines such as Tecovirimat, Brincidofovir, Cidofovir, Imvamune, and ACAM2000 have shown promising results. The primary purpose of the review is to perform an epidemiological study and investigate the pathobiology, diagnosis, prevention, treatment, and some associated complications of the monkeypox virus in 2022.

Monkey finger mycology? First case of otomycosis externa caused by Trichophyton simii after encounter with a monkey

Unilateral ear pain, ear canal blockage and reduced hearing in an 18-year-old Canadian male who had travelled to India revealed, on examination of a swab, secretions bearing unusual fungal filaments visually suggestive of dermatophyte elements. Culture yielded Trichophyton simii, an unusual skin infecting species with a worldwide distribution but most often seen from India. The patient recalled swimming in the Ganges River but also had had his ear manipulated by a street monkey.

Transmission dynamics of novel Coronavirus-SARS-CoV-2 in South Sumatera, Indonesia

SARS-CoV-2 has shaken the world by extremely raising death tolls, illnesses, and economic losses. The virus is transmitted by humans to other humans, spreading to more than 200 countries. This research aims to analyze the transmission dynamics of novel Coronavirus-SARS-CoV-2 in South Sumatera Indonesia. This is epidemiologic research, and the research population is all SARS-CoV-2 patients and those who have close contact with the patients in all districts/cities in South Sumatera. It has been widely known that those that have made contact with patients confirmed positive for SARS-CoV-2 has a risk of getting infected by SARS-CoV-2 by 3.591 higher than those who never have (OR = 3.591, 95% CI: 2.933-4.396). Also, according to the findings, those who have a contact history to patients confirmed positive for SARS-CoV-2 have a risk of getting infected by SARS-CoV-2 by 2.387 higher than those who never have (OR = 2.387, 95% CI: 1.362-4.184). Meanwhile, those who have no idea for having made contact with patients confirmed positive for SARS-CoV-2 has a risk of getting infected by SARS-CoV-2 by 1.082 higher than those who have never a contact history to the SARS-CoV-2 patients (OR = 1.082, 95% CI: 0.622-1.882). To prevent broader transmission, those who have made contact with the SARS-CoV-2 patients need to be quarantined. The findings help us give community health interventions to globally fight this transmittable disease.

A case of dengue fever that should be considered as imported infectious disease with digestive symptoms

Patients with dengue fever usually present with fever and rash, but non-specific symptoms such as headache, myalgia, arthralgia, and digestive symptoms are sometimes seen. We report a case of dengue fever with digestive symptoms in a patient who traveled to Indonesia. A 35-year-old man presented with fever, diarrhea, headache, and arthralgia. He later developed generalized rash. Dengue fever was clinically suspected from the travel history and confirmed by laboratory tests. He tested positive for anti-dengue virus antibodies, so dengue fever was diagnosed. Dengue fever should be included in the differential diagnosis of patients with digestive symptoms after returning to Japan.

Examining geographical disparities in the incubation period of the COVID-19 infected cases in Shenzhen and Hefei, China

BACKGROUND

Current studies on the COVID-19 depicted a general incubation period distribution and did not examine whether the incubation period distribution varies across patients living in different geographical locations with varying environmental attributes. Profiling the incubation distributions geographically help to determine the appropriate quarantine duration for different regions.

METHODS

This retrospective study mainly applied big data analytics and methodology, using the publicly accessible clinical report for patients (n = 543) confirmed as infected in Shenzhen and Hefei, China. Based on 217 patients on whom the incubation period could be identified by the epidemiological method. Statistical and econometric methods were employed to investigate how the incubation distributions varied between infected cases reported in Shenzhen and Hefei.

RESULTS

The median incubation period of the COVID-19 for all the 217 infected patients was 8 days (95% CI 7 to 9), while median values were 9 days in Shenzhen and 4 days in Hefei. The incubation period probably has an inverse U-shaped association with the meteorological temperature. The warmer condition in the winter of Shenzhen, average environmental temperature between 10 °C to 15 °C, may decrease viral virulence and result in more extended incubation periods.

CONCLUSION

Case studies of the COVID-19 outbreak in Shenzhen and Hefei indicated that the incubation period of COVID-19 had exhibited evident geographical disparities, although the pathological causality between meteorological conditions and incubation period deserves further investigation. Methodologies based on big data released by local public health authorities are applicable for identifying incubation period and relevant epidemiological research.

[Infections of the lungs in returning travellers]

Auf Auslandsreisen kann es zu Infektionen mit Erregern kommen, die in Deutschland nicht endemisch sind. Vor dem Hintergrund einer stetig zunehmenden Reiseaktivität der Bevölkerung gewinnen diese Infektionen bei Reiserückkehrern an Bedeutung. Ältere und vorerkrankte Reisende stellen dabei eine besondere Risikogruppe dar. Die Kenntnis von im Ausland vorkommenden Erregern und typischen Krankheitsbildern ist essenziell, um eine entsprechende Verdachtsdiagnose stellen zu können, insbesondere bei Patienten, bei denen eine erste kalkulierte antibakterielle Therapie ohne Effekt bleibt. Die Erhebung einer detaillierten Reiseanamnese ist entscheidend, um Aufschluss über eine mögliche Exposition gegenüber spezifischen Erregern zu gewinnen und die korrekte Diagnostik in die Wege leiten zu können. Neben Erregern, die primär zu einer Infektion der Lunge führen, müssen differenzialdiagnostisch auch immer nichtpulmonale Infektionen mit einer pulmonalen Begleitsymptomatik, wie beispielsweise Schistosomiasis oder Malaria, in Betracht gezogen werden. Zwei Beispiele von pulmonalen Infektionen, die ausschließlich im Ausland erworben werden können, sind die Melioidose und die Kokzidioidomykose. Während eine pulmonale Manifestation der Melioidose akut und fulminant verlaufen und mit einer hohen Letalität assoziiert sein kann, ist die Kokzidioidomykose primär meist oligosymptomatisch, mit erheblicher Latenz können jedoch pulmonale Manifestationen auftreten, die in ihrer Vielfalt der Tuberkulose oder Malignomen ähneln können.

Incidence of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection among people under home quarantine in Shenzhen, China

Since the outbreak of 2019-nCoV in December, Chinese government has implemented various measures including travel bans, centralized treatments, and home quarantines to slowing the transmission across the country. In this study, we aimed to estimate the incidence of 2019-nCoV infection among people under home quarantine in Shenzhen, China. Methods: We used a stratified multistage random sampling method to recruit participants and collected demographic information and laboratory results of people under home quarantine. We conducted descriptive analysis to estimate the basic characteristics and to calculate the incidence in out study population. Results: A total of 2004 people under home quarantine participated in this study, of which 1637 participants finished the questionnaire with a response rate of 81.7%. Mean age of the participants was 33.7 years, ranging from 0.3 to 80.2 years. Of people who provided clear travel history, 129 people have traveled to Wuhan city and 1,046 people have traveled to other cities in Hubei province within 14 days before the home quarantine. Few (less than 1%) participants reported contact history with confirmed or suspected cases during their trip and most of these arrived at Shenzhen between Jan 24, 2020 to Jan 27, 2020. The incidence of COVID-19 in the sample was 1.5‰ (95% CI: 0.31‰–4.37‰). Conclusion: Home quarantine has been effective in preventing the early transmission of COVID-19, but that more needs to be done to improve early detection of COVID-19 infection.

Travel patterns and demographic characteristics of malaria cases in Swaziland, 2010-2014

Background

As Swaziland progresses towards national malaria elimination, the importation of parasites into receptive areas becomes increasingly important. Imported infections have the potential to instigate local transmission and sustain local parasite reservoirs.

Methods

Travel histories from Swaziland’s routine surveillance data from January 2010 to June 2014 were extracted and analysed. The travel patterns and demographics of rapid diagnostic test (RDT)-confirmed positive cases identified through passive and reactive case detection (RACD) were analysed and compared to those found to be negative through RACD.

Results

Of 1517 confirmed cases identified through passive surveillance, 67% reported travel history. A large proportion of positive cases reported domestic or international travel history (65%) compared to negative cases (10%). The primary risk factor for malaria infection in Swaziland was shown to be travel, more specifically international travel to Mozambique by 25- to 44-year old males, who spent on average 28 nights away. Maputo City, Inhambane and Gaza districts were the most likely travel destinations in Mozambique, and 96% of RDT-positive international travellers were either Swazi (52%) or Mozambican (44%) nationals, with Swazis being more likely to test negative. All international travellers were unlikely to have a bed net at home or use protection of any type while travelling. Additionally, paths of transmission, important border crossings and means of transport were identified.

Conclusion

Results from this analysis can be used to direct national and well as cross-border targeting of interventions, over space, time and by sub-population. The results also highlight that collaboration between neighbouring countries is needed to tackle the importation of malaria at the regional level.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-017-2004-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Triage documentation-based decision support to improve infectious disease risk screening and mitigate exposure

Multidisciplinary focus group review of current triage practice identified gaps in identification of potentially infectious diseases. Modifications were made to triage and nursing assessment forms that were easy to maneuver, rapidly modifiable, and provided documentation-based decision support to expedite infection prevention measures. Development of a decision support infectious disease risk screening tool enhances outbreak preparedness, occupational safety, and response.

Importance of a Travel History in Evaluation of Respiratory Infections

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

International travel has increased at a fast pace and will continue to rapidly rise. Concomitantly, with this increase in travel is the increase in post travel-related diseases, such as respiratory illnesses. Identifying the cause of the posttravel respiratory illness is a complex challenge for many healthcare professionals because similar presentations occur for both infectious and noninfectious causes. Not only is diagnosis important but also transmission prevention. In the last two decades, there have been several severe infectious respiratory syndromes that have spread through international travel causing epidemics in many countries.

RECENT FINDINGS

A detailed travel history with the chronology of symptoms paired with the patient's medical risk factors and exposures along with some basic knowledge of infectious respiratory illnesses will help facilitate clinical decision making. This framework will help create a broad, but appropriate differential diagnosis to guide clinical workup, prevent delays in diagnosis, and implement the appropriate precautions to prevent transmission if appropriate.

SUMMARY

The foundation to diagnosing a travel-related respiratory illness lies within integrating the patient's travel history, comorbid conditions, clinical presentation, exposures, and mode of transmission. A timely and accurate diagnosis benefits not only the patient but also the surrounding community to prevent further individual transmission, epidemics, and pandemics.

A nephrotic syndrome of tropical origin: case report and short review of the aetiology

We present a case of nephrotic syndrome in a 38-year-old man of Ivorian origin. In the search of the cause of his illness an infection with Plasmodium malariae (P. malariae) was diagnosed by serology and by microscopy of a Giemsa thin blood smear which revealed rare gametocytes of P. malariae. Proteinuria significantly diminished within three months after antimalarial treatment. Antibodies against Schistosoma were detected as well. Examination of kidney biopsy revealed a discrete mesangioproliferative glomerulonephritis. This case highlights that a thorough history-taking may be essential and that infectious diseases should be included in the differential diagnostic thinking process when a nephrotic syndrome is diagnosed.