Polygenic risk prediction: why and when out-of-sample prediction R2 can exceed SNP-based heritability

In polygenic score (PGS) analysis, the coefficient of determination (R2) is a key statistic to evaluate efficacy. R2 is the proportion of phenotypic variance explained by the PGS, calculated in a cohort that is independent of the genome-wide association study (GWAS) that provided estimates of allelic effect sizes. The SNP-based heritability (hSNP2, the proportion of total phenotypic variances attributable to all common SNPs) is the theoretical upper limit of the out-of-sample prediction R2. However, in real data analyses R2 has been reported to exceed hSNP2, which occurs in parallel with the observation that hSNP2 estimates tend to decline as the number of cohorts being meta-analyzed increases. Here, we quantify why and when these observations are expected. Using theory and simulation, we show that if heterogeneities in cohort-specific hSNP2 exist, or if genetic correlations between cohorts are less than one, hSNP2 estimates can decrease as the number of cohorts being meta-analyzed increases. We derive conditions when the out-of-sample prediction R2 will be greater than hSNP2 and show the validity of our derivations with real data from a binary trait (major depression) and a continuous trait (educational attainment). Our research calls for a better approach to integrating information from multiple cohorts to address issues of between-cohort heterogeneity.

Multi-ancestry meta-analysis of asthma identifies novel associations and highlights the value of increased power and diversity

Asthma is a complex disease that varies widely in prevalence across populations. The extent to which genetic variation contributes to these disparities is unclear, as the genetics underlying asthma have been investigated primarily in populations of European descent. As part of the Global Biobank Meta-analysis Initiative, we conducted a large-scale genome-wide association study of asthma (153,763 cases and 1,647,022 controls) via meta-analysis across 22 biobanks spanning multiple ancestries. We discovered 179 asthma-associated loci, 49 of which were not previously reported. Despite the wide range in asthma prevalence among biobanks, we found largely consistent genetic effects across biobanks and ancestries. The meta-analysis also improved polygenic risk prediction in non-European populations compared with previous studies. Additionally, we found considerable genetic overlap between age-of-onset subtypes and between asthma and comorbid diseases. Our work underscores the multi-factorial nature of asthma development and offers insight into its shared genetic architecture.

Genetic risk, parental history, and suicide attempts in a diverse sample of US adolescents

BACKGROUND

Adolescent suicide is a major health problem in the US marked by a recent increase in risk of suicidal behavior among Black/African American youth. While genetic factors partly account for familial transmission of suicidal behavior, it is not clear whether polygenic risk scores of suicide attempt can contribute to suicide risk classification.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the contribution of a polygenic risk score for suicide attempt (PRS-SA) in explaining variance in suicide attempt by early adolescence.

METHODS

We studied N = 5,214 non-related youth of African and European genetic ancestry from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study (ages 8.9-13.8 years) who were evaluated between 2016 and 2021. Regression models tested associations between PRS-SA and parental history of suicide attempt/death with youth-reported suicide attempt. Covariates included age and sex.

RESULTS

Over three waves of assessments, 182 youth (3.5%) reported a past suicide attempt, with Black youth reporting significantly more suicide attempts than their White counterparts (6.1 vs. 2.8%, p < 0.001). PRS-SA was associated with suicide attempt [odds ratio (OR) = 1.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-1.5, p = 0.001]. Parental history of suicide attempt/death was also associated with youth suicide attempt (OR = 3.1, 95% CI, 2.0-4.7, p < 0.001). PRS-SA remained significantly associated with suicide attempt even when accounting for parental history (OR = 1.29, 95% CI = 1.1-1.5, p = 0.002). In European ancestry youth (n = 4,128), inclusion of PRS-SA in models containing parental history explained more variance in suicide attempt compared to models that included only parental history (ΔR ² = 0.7%, p = 0.009).

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest that PRS-SA may be useful for youth suicide risk classification in addition to established risk factors.