Learning epistatic polygenic phenotypes with Boolean interactions

Detecting epistatic drivers of human phenotypes is a considerable challenge. Traditional approaches use regression to sequentially test multiplicative interaction terms involving pairs of genetic variants. For higher-order interactions and genome-wide large-scale data, this strategy is computationally intractable. Moreover, multiplicative terms used in regression modeling may not capture the form of biological interactions. Building on the Predictability, Computability, Stability (PCS) framework, we introduce the epiTree pipeline to extract higher-order interactions from genomic data using tree-based models. The epiTree pipeline first selects a set of variants derived from tissue-specific estimates of gene expression. Next, it uses iterative random forests (iRF) to search training data for candidate Boolean interactions (pairwise and higher-order). We derive significance tests for interactions, based on a stabilized likelihood ratio test, by simulating Boolean tree-structured null (no epistasis) and alternative (epistasis) distributions on hold-out test data. Finally, our pipeline computes PCS epistasis p-values that probabilisticly quantify improvement in prediction accuracy via bootstrap sampling on the test set. We validate the epiTree pipeline in two case studies using data from the UK Biobank: predicting red hair and multiple sclerosis (MS). In the case of predicting red hair, epiTree recovers known epistatic interactions surrounding MC1R and novel interactions, representing non-linearities not captured by logistic regression models. In the case of predicting MS, a more complex phenotype than red hair, epiTree rankings prioritize novel interactions surrounding HLA-DRB1, a variant previously associated with MS in several populations. Taken together, these results highlight the potential for epiTree rankings to help reduce the design space for follow up experiments.

Oligogenic Architecture of Rare Noncoding Variants Distinguishes 4 Congenital Heart Disease Phenotypes

BACKGROUND

Congenital heart disease (CHD) is highly heritable, but the power to identify inherited risk has been limited to analyses of common variants in small cohorts.

METHODS

We performed reimputation of 4 CHD cohorts (n=55 342) to the TOPMed reference panel (freeze 5), permitting meta-analysis of 14 784 017 variants including 6 035 962 rare variants of high imputation quality as validated by whole genome sequencing.

RESULTS

Meta-analysis identified 16 novel loci, including 12 rare variants, which displayed moderate or large effect sizes (median odds ratio, 3.02) for 4 separate CHD categories. Analyses of chromatin structure link 13 of the genome-wide significant loci to key genes in cardiac development; rs373447426 (minor allele frequency, 0.003 [odds ratio, 3.37 for Conotruncal heart disease]; P=1.49×10^-8) is predicted to disrupt chromatin structure for 2 nearby genes BDH1 and DLG1 involved in Conotruncal development. A lead variant rs189203952 (minor allele frequency, 0.01 [odds ratio, 2.4 for left ventricular outflow tract obstruction]; P=1.46×10^-8) is predicted to disrupt the binding sites of 4 transcription factors known to participate in cardiac development in the promoter of SPAG9. A tissue-specific model of chromatin conformation suggests that common variant rs78256848 (minor allele frequency, 0.11 [odds ratio, 1.4 for Conotruncal heart disease]; P=2.6×10^-8) physically interacts with NCAM1 (P_FDR=1.86×10^-27), a neural adhesion molecule acting in cardiac development. Importantly, while each individual malformation displayed substantial heritability (observed h2 ranging from 0.26 for complex malformations to 0.37 for left ventricular outflow tract obstructive disease) the risk for different CHD malformations appeared to be separate, without genetic correlation measured by linkage disequilibrium score regression or regional colocalization.

CONCLUSIONS

We describe a set of rare noncoding variants conferring significant risk for individual heart malformations which are linked to genes governing cardiac development. These results illustrate that the oligogenic basis of CHD and significant heritability may be linked to rare variants outside protein-coding regions conferring substantial risk for individual categories of cardiac malformation.

Genetically-informed prediction of short-term Parkinson's disease progression

Parkinson's disease (PD) treatments modify disease symptoms but have not been shown to slow progression, characterized by gradual and varied motor and non-motor changes overtime. Variation in PD progression hampers clinical research, resulting in long and expensive clinical trials prone to failure. Development of models for short-term PD progression prediction could be useful for shortening the time required to detect disease-modifying drug effects in clinical studies. PD progressors were defined by an increase in MDS-UPDRS scores at 12-, 24-, and 36-months post-baseline. Using only baseline features, PD progression was separately predicted across all timepoints and MDS-UPDRS subparts in independent, optimized, XGBoost models. These predictions plus baseline features were combined into a meta-predictor for 12-month MDS UPDRS Total progression. Data from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) were used for training with independent testing on the Parkinson's Disease Biomarkers Program (PDBP) cohort. 12-month PD total progression was predicted with an F-measure 0.77, ROC AUC of 0.77, and PR AUC of 0.76 when tested on a hold-out PPMI set. When tested on PDBP we achieve a F-measure 0.75, ROC AUC of 0.74, and PR AUC of 0.73. Exclusion of genetic predictors led to the greatest loss in predictive accuracy; ROC AUC of 0.66, PR AUC of 0.66-0.68 for both PPMI and PDBP testing. Short-term PD progression can be predicted with a combination of survey-based, neuroimaging, physician examination, and genetic predictors. Dissection of the interplay between genetic risk, motor symptoms, non-motor symptoms, and longer-term expected rates of progression enable generalizable predictions.

Pan-ancestry exome-wide association analyses of COVID-19 outcomes in 586,157 individuals

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a respiratory illness that can result in hospitalization or death. We used exome sequence data to investigate associations between rare genetic variants and seven COVID-19 outcomes in 586,157 individuals, including 20,952 with COVID-19. After accounting for multiple testing, we did not identify any clear associations with rare variants either exome wide or when specifically focusing on (1) 13 interferon pathway genes in which rare deleterious variants have been reported in individuals with severe COVID-19, (2) 281 genes located in susceptibility loci identified by the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative, or (3) 32 additional genes of immunologic relevance and/or therapeutic potential. Our analyses indicate there are no significant associations with rare protein-coding variants with detectable effect sizes at our current sample sizes. Analyses will be updated as additional data become available, and results are publicly available through the Regeneron Genetics Center COVID-19 Results Browser.

A catalog of associations between rare coding variants and COVID-19 outcomes

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19), a respiratory illness that can result in hospitalization or death. We investigated associations between rare genetic variants and seven COVID-19 outcomes in 543,213 individuals, including 8,248 with COVID-19. After accounting for multiple testing, we did not identify any clear associations with rare variants either exome-wide or when specifically focusing on (i) 14 interferon pathway genes in which rare deleterious variants have been reported in severe COVID-19 patients; (ii) 167 genes located in COVID-19 GWAS risk loci; or (iii) 32 additional genes of immunologic relevance and/or therapeutic potential. Our analyses indicate there are no significant associations with rare protein-coding variants with detectable effect sizes at our current sample sizes. Analyses will be updated as additional data become available, with results publicly browsable at https://rgc-covid19.regeneron.com.

Epigenetic signature of glucocorticoid receptor is associated with the familial component of depression: A twin-based study

Introduction

Despite the fact that depression has an estimated heritability around 40%, there is no definitive candidate gene contributing to its etiology. The lack of an identified genetic component for high-heritability disorders, like depression, gave rise to the concept of missing heritability. The epigenetics’ field has pushed forward new hypotheses to fill this gap since transgenerational inheritance of epigenetic patterns has been described both in animal models and, more recently, in humans. Depression is usually associated with an abnormal stress response and an altered hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, regulated by the glucocorticoid receptor (coded by NR3C1 gene). Therefore, NR3C1 has been widely investigated as a functional candidate gene involved in anxious-depressive spectrum disorders (ADSD) although a more comprehensive study of its methylation is further required (Palma-Gudiel et al., 2015).

Aims

To analyze NR3C1 promoter's methylation and to study its association with anxious-depressive spectrum disorders.

Methods

The sample consisted of 48 pairs of monozygotic twins, from the UB twin register, grouped as concordant, discordant and healthy pairs depending on whether both, one or none of the co-twins of each pair were affected by a lifetime ADSD, according to DSM-IV criteria (SCID). DNA methylation was assessed by bisulfite conversion and subsequent pyrosequencing.

Results

Hypermethylation at specific CpG sites, not previously reported, was detected in concordant twin pairs as compared with discordant and healthy groups (P = 0.03).

Conclusions

The epigenetic pattern newly described in NR3C1 gene may be contributing to the familial component of depression and thus could be putatively explained by transgenerational inheritance of epigenetic phenomena.

Disclosure of interest

The authors have not supplied their declaration of competing interest.

Distinguishing early and late brain aging from the Alzheimer's disease spectrum: consistent morphological patterns across independent samples

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a debilitating age-related neurodegenerative disorder. Accurate identification of individuals at risk is complicated as AD shares cognitive and brain features with aging. We applied linked independent component analysis (LICA) on three complementary measures of gray matter structure: cortical thickness, area and gray matter density of 137 AD, 78 mild (MCI) and 38 subjective cognitive impairment patients, and 355 healthy adults aged 18-78 years to identify dissociable multivariate morphological patterns sensitive to age and diagnosis. Using the lasso classifier, we performed group classification and prediction of cognition and age at different age ranges to assess the sensitivity and diagnostic accuracy of the LICA patterns in relation to AD, as well as early and late healthy aging. Three components showed high sensitivity to the diagnosis and cognitive status of AD, with different relationships with age: one reflected an anterior-posterior gradient in thickness and gray matter density and was uniquely related to diagnosis, whereas the other two, reflecting widespread cortical thickness and medial temporal lobe volume, respectively, also correlated significantly with age. Repeating the LICA decomposition and between-subject analysis on ADNI data, including 186 AD, 395 MCI and 220 age-matched healthy controls, revealed largely consistent brain patterns and clinical associations across samples. Classification results showed that multivariate LICA-derived brain characteristics could be used to predict AD and age with high accuracy (area under ROC curve up to 0.93 for classification of AD from controls). Comparison between classifiers based on feature ranking and feature selection suggests both common and unique feature sets implicated in AD and aging, and provides evidence of distinct age-related differences in early compared to late aging.