Interplay of body mass index and metabolic syndrome: association with physiological age from midlife to late-life

Obesity and metabolic syndrome (MetS) share common pathophysiological characteristics with aging. To better understand their interplay, we examined how body mass index (BMI) and MetS jointly associate with physiological age, and if the associations changed from midlife to late-life. We used longitudinal data from 1,825 Swedish twins. Physiological age was measured as frailty index (FI) and functional aging index (FAI) and modeled independently in linear mixed-effects models adjusted for chronological age, sex, education, and smoking. We assessed curvilinear associations of BMI and chronological age with physiological age, and interactions between BMI, MetS, and chronological age. We found a significant three-way interaction between BMI, MetS, and chronological age on FI (p-interaction = 0·006), not FAI. Consequently, we stratified FI analyses by age: < 65, 65-85, and ≥ 85 years, and modeled FAI across ages. Except for FI at ages ≥ 85, BMI had U-shaped associations with FI and FAI, where BMI around 26-28 kg/m2 was associated with the lowest physiological age. MetS was associated with higher FI and FAI, except for FI at ages < 65, and modified the BMI-FI association at ages 65-85 (p-interaction = 0·02), whereby the association between higher BMI levels and FI was stronger in individuals with MetS. Age modified the MetS-FI association in ages ≥ 85, such that it was stronger at higher ages (p-interaction = 0·01). Low BMI, high BMI, and metabolic syndrome were associated with higher physiological age, contributing to overall health status among older individuals and potentially accelerating aging.

Environmental risk factors for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder from childhood to diagnosis: a Swedish nested case-control study

BACKGROUND

Shared genetic risk between schizophrenia (SCZ) and bipolar disorder (BD) is well-established, yet the extent to which they share environmental risk factors remains unclear. We compare the associations between environmental exposures during childhood/prior to disorder onset with the risk of developing SCZ and BD.

METHODS

We conducted a Swedish register-based nested case-control study using 4184 SCZ cases and 18 681 BD cases diagnosed 1988-2013. Cases were matched to five controls by birth year, birth region, and sex. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRR) for SCZ and BD for each exposure (severe childhood infections, adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), substance use disorders (SUDs), urban birth/longest residence).

RESULTS

All SUD types were associated with very high risk (IRR 4.9-25.5), and all forms of ACEs with higher risk (IRR 1.5-4.3) for both disorders. In the mutually adjusted models, ACEs demonstrated slightly higher risk for BD (SCZ IRR 1.30, 1.19-1.42; BD IRR 1.49, 1.44-1.55), while for SUD, risk was higher for SCZ (SCZ IRR 9.43, 8.15-10.92; BD IRR 5.50, 5.15-5.88). Infections were associated with increased risk of BD (IRR 1.21, 1.17-1.26) but not SCZ. Urban birth and urban longest residence were associated with higher risk of SCZ (IRR 1.19, 1.03-1.37), while only the combination of urban birth and rural longest residence showed higher risk for BD (IRR 1.24, 1.13-1.35).

CONCLUSIONS

There were both shared and unique environmental risk factors: SUDs and ACEs were risk factors for both disorders, while infections were more strongly associated with BD and urbanicity with SCZ.

Cancer risks among first-degree relatives of women with a genetic predisposition to breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Associations between germline alterations in women and cancer risks among their relatives are largely unknown.

METHODS

We used women from two Swedish cohorts (KARMA and pKARMA), including 28,362 women with genotyping data and 13,226 with sequencing data. Using Swedish Multi-Generation Register, we linked these women to 133,389 first-degree relatives. Associations between protein-truncating variants (PTVs) in 8 risk genes and breast cancer polygenic risk score (PRS) in index women and cancer risks among their relatives were modeled via Cox regression.

RESULTS

Female relatives of index women who were PTV carriers in any of the 8 risk genes had an increased breast cancer risk compared to those of non-carriers (HR1.85, 95% CI: 1.52-2.27), with the strongest association found for PTVs in BRCA1/2. These relatives had a statistically higher risk of early-onset than late-onset breast cancer (P = .001). Elevated breast cancer risk was also observed in female relatives of index women with higher PRS (HR per SD: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.23-1.32). The estimated lifetime risk was 22.3% for female relatives of PTV carriers and 14.4% for those related to women in the top PRS quartile. Moreover, relatives of index women with PTV presence (HR: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.06-1.59) or higher PRS (HR per SD: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.01-1.07) were also at higher risk of non-breast-HBOC cancers, including prostate, ovarian, pancreatic cancer, and melanoma.

CONCLUSIONS

Both PTVs of risk genes and higher PRS in index women are associated with an increased risk of breast and other HBOC-related cancers among relatives.

Leukocyte DNA methylation in Alzheimer´s disease associated genes: replication of findings from neuronal cells

Differences in gene-wide DNA methylation of the Alzheimer's disease (AD)-associated genes BIN1, HLA-DRB5, SORL1, SLC24A4, and ABCA7 are reported to be associated with AD in post-mortem brain samples. We investigated whether the same associations could be found in leukocytes collected pre-mortem. Using cohort data of 544 Swedish twins (204 dementia diagnoses), we replicated the findings in HLA-DRB5 and SLC24A4 at P < 0.05. However, co-twin control analyses indicated that the associations were partly explained by familial confounding. Thus, DNA methylation differences in HLA-DRB5 and SLC24A4 are present in both neuronal cells and leukocytes, and not fully explained familial factors.

Advanced biological ageing predicts future risk for neurological diagnoses and clinical examination findings

Age is a dominant risk factor for some of the most common neurological diseases. Biological ageing encompasses interindividual variation in the rate of ageing and can be calculated from clinical biomarkers or DNA methylation data amongst other approaches. Here, we tested the hypothesis that a biological age greater than one's chronological age affects the risk of future neurological diagnosis and the development of abnormal signs on clinical examination. We analysed data from the Swedish Adoption/Twin Study of Aging (SATSA): a cohort with 3175 assessments of 802 individuals followed-up over several decades. Six measures of biological ageing were generated: two physiological ages (created from bedside clinical measurements and standard blood tests) and four blood methylation age measures. Their effects on future stroke, dementia or Parkinson's disease diagnosis, or development of abnormal clinical signs, were determined using survival analysis, with and without stratification by twin pairs. Older physiological ages were associated with ischaemic stroke risk; for example one standard deviation advancement in baseline PhenoAgePhys or KDMAgePhys residual increased future ischaemic stroke risk by 29.2% [hazard ratio (HR): 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06-1.58, P = 0.012] and 42.9% (HR 1.43, CI 1.18-1.73, P = 3.1 × 10-4), respectively. In contrast, older methylation ages were more predictive of future dementia risk, which was increased by 29.7% (HR 1.30, CI 1.07-1.57, P = 0.007) per standard deviation advancement in HorvathAgeMeth. Older physiological ages were also positively associated with future development of abnormal patellar or pupillary reflexes, and the loss of normal gait. Measures of biological ageing can predict clinically relevant pathology of the nervous system independent of chronological age. This may help to explain variability in disease risk between individuals of the same age and strengthens the case for trials of geroprotective interventions for people with neurological disorders.

Rare functional variants in the CRP and G6PC genes modify the relationship between obesity and serum C-reactive protein in white British population

BACKGROUND

C-reactive protein (CRP) is a sensitive biomarker of inflammation with moderate heritability. The role of rare functional genetic variants in relation to serum CRP is understudied. We aimed to examine gene mutation burden of protein-altering (PA) and loss-of-function (LOF) variants in association with serum CRP, and to further explore the clinical relevance.

METHODS

We included 161,430 unrelated participants of European ancestry from the UK Biobank. Of the rare (minor allele frequency <0.1%) and functional variants, 1,776,249 PA and 266,226 LOF variants were identified. Gene-based burden tests, linear regressions, and logistic regressions were performed to identify the candidate mutations at the gene and variant levels, to estimate the potential interaction effect between the identified PA mutation and obesity, and to evaluate the relative risk of 16 CRP-associated diseases.

RESULTS

At the gene level, PA mutation burdens of the CRP (β = -0.685, p = 2.87e-28) and G6PC genes (β = 0.203, p = 1.50e-06) were associated with reduced and increased serum CRP concentration, respectively. At the variant level, seven PA alleles in the CRP gene decreased serum CRP, of which the per-allele effects were approximately three to seven times greater than that of a common variant in the same locus. The effects of obesity and central obesity on serum CRP concentration were smaller among the PA mutation carriers in the CRP (pinteraction  = 0.008) and G6PC gene (pinteraction  = 0.034) compared to the corresponding non-carriers.

CONCLUSION

PA mutation burdens in the CRP and G6PC genes are strongly associated with decreased serum CRP concentrations. As serum CRP and obesity are important predictors of cardiovascular risks in clinics, our observations suggest taking rare genetic factors into consideration might improve the delivery of precision medicine.

Risk of Parkinson's Disease in Celiac Disease: A Swedish Population-Based Study

Using a population-based matched cohort design, we assessed the association of celiac disease (CeD) with risk of PD by comparing patients with biopsy-confirmed CeD in Sweden to a biopsy-free population and their unaffected siblings, separately. No overall association was observed but CeD diagnosed before age 60 associated positively with incident diagnosis of PD (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.29; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.62), which was mainly attributed to the significantly elevated risk detected after 10-15 years since biopsy (HR = 1.68; 95% CI: 1.05-2.68). Our findings imply an increased vulnerability to long-term PD development among patients with CeD diagnosed before 60s. ANN NEUROL 2023;94:911-916.

Migration and risk of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder: A Swedish national study

OBJECTIVE

Prior studies report increased risk of schizophrenia (SCZ) in migrants relative to the native-born population; however, few have investigated bipolar disorder (BD) and migrant characteristics which may influence risk. We aimed to examine the risk of SCZ and BD in migrants and their children relative to those of Swedish ancestry, and whether risk varied by age at migration, region of origin, sex, and parental migrant status.

METHODS

We conducted a nested case-control study using 5539 SCZ cases and 20,577 BD cases diagnosed 1988-2013, individually matched to five population-based controls by birth year and sex. Conditional logistic regression was used to evaluate the risk of SCZ and BD by migrant status, region of origin and age at migration, with models stratified by sex.

RESULTS

First-generation migrants had increased risk of SCZ and decreased risk of BD. There was a distinct pattern of risk for SCZ by age at migration. Childhood migrants from all regions had increased risk of SCZ, particularly those from Africa. In contrast, risk for BD declined with age at migration, with increased risk only in Nordic child migrants. SCZ and BD diagnoses were decreased in adult migrants, elevated in second-generation migrants (with risk differing by number of migrant parents and greater for those with migrant fathers) and higher in male migrants (vs. female).

CONCLUSIONS

Age at migration, sex, and region of origin affect risk of SCZ and BD. Further research is required to determine how migration-related factors influence disease etiology and the receipt of these diagnoses.

Impact of Early-Life Factors on Risk for Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS

Schizophrenia (SCZ) and bipolar disorder (BD) have shared genetic risk and clinical symptoms, yet the extent to which environmental risk factors are shared is not well known. We aimed to examine the associations of early-life environmental exposures with the risk of SCZ and BD.

STUDY DESIGN

We conducted a Swedish register-based nested case-control study using 4184 SCZ and 18 681 BD cases diagnosed 1988-2013, individually matched to 5 population-based controls by birth year, sex and birthplace. Conditional logistic regression was used to evaluate the risk of SCZ and BD by seasonality, severe prenatal infections, and perinatal factors.

STUDY RESULTS

Seasonality had similar patterns of risk for both disorders: Higher risk for births November-December; lower risk April-June. Experiencing any perinatal factor was associated with a significantly higher risk of SCZ (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.19, 95%CI 1.11-1.63) and to a lesser extent BD (IRR 1.08, 95%CI 1.05-1.12). Prenatal infections were only associated with a greater risk of SCZ (IRR 1.30, 95%CI 1.04-1.63). In the mutually adjusted model, only perinatal factors were associated with outcomes. Several perinatal factors were associated with both disorders, but estimates were significantly higher for SCZ for low birth weight, low APGAR, and high parity. Congenital malformations were only associated with risk of SCZ, and jaundice with BD.

CONCLUSIONS

Adverse perinatal factors and winter birth were the risk factors for both disorders, while severe prenatal infections were only risk a factor for SCZ. Early-life exposures were associated with a higher risk of both disorders, but may play a larger role in the development of SCZ than BD.

Genetic overlap between Parkinson's disease and inflammatory bowel disease

Parkinson's disease and inflammatory bowel disease have been increasingly associated, implying shared pathophysiology. To explore biological explanations for the reported connection, we leveraged summary statistics of updated genome-wide association studies and characterized the genetic overlap between the two diseases. Aggregated genetic association data were available for 37 688 cases versus 981 372 controls for Parkinson's disease and 25 042 cases versus 34 915 controls for inflammatory bowel disease. Genetic correlation was estimated with the high-definition likelihood method. Genetic variants with joint association to both diseases were identified by conditional false discovery rate framework and further annotated to reveal shared loci, genes, and enriched pathways. For both Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, the two main subtypes of inflammatory bowel disease, we detected weak but statistically significant genetic correlations with Parkinson's disease (Crohn's disease: r_g = 0.06, P = 0.01; ulcerative colitis: r_g = 0.06, P = 0.03). A total of 1290 variants in 27 independent genomic loci were detected to associate with Parkinson's disease and Crohn's disease at conjunctional false discovery rate under 0.01 and 1359 variants in 15 loci were pleiotropic to Parkinson's disease and ulcerative colitis. Among the identified pleiotropic loci, 23 are novel and have never been associated with both phenotypes. A mixture of loci conferring either same or opposing genetic effects on two phenotypes was also observed. Positional and expression quantitative trait loci mapping prioritized 296 and 253 genes for Parkinson's disease with Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, respectively, among which only <10% are differentially expressed in both colon and substantia nigra. These genes were identified to overrepresent in pathways regulating gene expression and post-translational modification beyond several immune-related pathways enriched by major histocompatibility complex genes. In conclusion, we found robust evidence for a genetic link between Parkinson's disease and inflammatory bowel disease. The identified genetic overlap is complex at the locus and gene levels, indicating the presence of both synergistic and antagonistic pleiotropy. At the functional level, our findings implied a role of immune-centered mechanisms in the reported gut-brain connection.

Risk of hepato-pancreato-biliary cancer is increased by primary sclerosing cholangitis in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is continued uncertainty regarding the risks of hepato-pancreato-biliary cancers in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) with or without concomitant primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC).

OBJECTIVE

To give updated estimates on risk of hepato-pancreato-biliary cancers in patients with IBD, including pancreatic cancer, hepatocellular carcinoma, gall bladder cancer, and intra - and extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

METHODS

In a population-based cohort study, we included all patients diagnosed with IBD in Norway and Sweden from 1987 to 2016. The cohort comprised of 141,960 patients, identified through hospital databases and the National Patient Register. Participants were followed through linkage to national cancer, cause of death, and population registries. We calculated absolute risk and standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) of hepato-pancreato-biliary cancers by PSC and other clinical characteristics.

RESULTS

Of the 141,960 IBD patients, 3.2% were diagnosed with PSC. During a median follow-up of 10.0 years, we identified 443 biliary tract cancers (SIR 5.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.8-5.7), 161 hepatocellular carcinomas (SIR 2.4, 95% CI 2.0-2.7) and 282 pancreatic cancers (SIR 1.3, 95% CI 1.2-1.5). The relative risks were considerably higher in PSC-IBD patients, with SIR of 140 (95% CI 123-159) for biliary tract, 38.6 (95% CI 29.2-50.0) for hepatocellular, and 9.0 (95% CI 6.3-12.6) for pancreatic cancer. The SIRs were still slightly increased in non-PSC-IBD patients, compared to the general population. For biliary tract cancer, the cumulative probability at 25 years was 15.6% in PSC-IBD patients, and 0.4% in non-PSC-IBD patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The dramatically increased risks of hepato-pancreato-biliary cancers in PSC-IBD patients support periodic surveillance for these malignancies. While much lower, the excess relative risks in non-PSC-IBD patients were not trivial compared to non-IBD related risk factors.

Gastric Mucosal Abnormality and Risk of Pancreatic Cancer: A Population-Based Gastric Biopsy Cohort Study in Sweden

BACKGROUND

It remains open whether gastric precancerous lesions are associated with an elevated risk of pancreatic cancer. Our aim was to investigate the association between gastric mucosal status and pancreatic cancer risk.

METHODS

Patients with gastric biopsies [normal, minor changes, superficial gastritis, and atrophic gastritis/intestinal metaplasia/dysplasia (AG/IM/Dys)] from the Swedish histopathology registers during 1979 to 2011 were included. Cross-linkages with several nationwide registries allowed complete follow-up and identification of pancreatic cancer cases until 2014. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) and HRs were estimated.

RESULTS

During 3,438,248 person-years of follow-up with 318,653 participants, 3,540 cases of pancreatic cancer were identified. The same pattern of excess risk of pancreatic cancer compared with the general population was observed across all groups: a peak of 12- to 21-fold excess risk in the first year after biopsy [e.g., normal: SIR = 17.4; 95% confidence interval (CI), 15.7-19.3; AG/IM/Dys: SIR = 11.5; 95% CI, 9.9-13.4], which dropped dramatically during the second and third years, followed by 20% to 30% increased risk after the third year (e.g., normal: SIR = 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.4; AG/IM/Dys: SIR = 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.5). However, no significant excess risk was observed with the normal gastric mucosa as reference.

CONCLUSIONS

This unique, large pathologic cohort study did not find evidence that abnormal gastric mucosal status is causally associated with a long-term pancreatic cancer risk. However, a highly increased short-term risk was observed for people undergoing gastroscopy with biopsy sampling compared with the general population.

IMPACT

Further studies for a long-term risk of pancreatic cancer in patients with gastric biopsies are needed, with further adjustments.

Increased schizophrenia family history burden and reduced premorbid IQ in treatment-resistant schizophrenia: a Swedish National Register and Genomic Study

A high proportion of those with schizophrenia experience treatment non-response, placing them at higher risk for mortality and suicide attempts, compared to treatment responders. The clinical, social, and economic burden of treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS) are substantial. Previous genomic and epidemiological studies of TRS were often limited by sample size or lack of comprehensive genomic data. We aimed to systematically understand the clinical, demographic, and genomic correlates of TRS using epidemiological and genetic epidemiological modelling in a Swedish national population sample (n = 24,706) and then in a subgroup with common variant genetic risk scores, rare copy-number variant burden, and rare exonic burden (n = 4936). Population-based analyses identified increasing schizophrenia family history to be significantly associated with TRS (highest quartile of familial burden vs. lowest: adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.31, P = 4.8 × 10^-8). In males, a decrease of premorbid IQ of one standard deviation was significantly associated with greater risk of TRS (minimal aOR: 0.94, P = 0.002). In a subset of cases with extensive genomic data, we found no significant association between the genetic risk scores of four psychiatric disorders and two cognitive traits with TRS (schizophrenia genetic risk score: aOR = 1.07, P = 0.067). The association between copy number variant and rare variant burden measures and TRS did not reach the pre-defined statistical significance threshold (all P ≥ 0.005). In conclusion, direct measures of genomic risk were not associated with TRS; however, premorbid IQ in males and schizophrenia family history were significantly correlated with TRS and points to new insights into the architecture of TRS.

Abstract 841: Risk of hepatobiliary & pancreatic cancer in inflammatory bowel disease

Background: The risk of hepatobiliary and pancreatic cancer in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) with or without concomitant primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) has not been reliably quantified in large, prospective studies with long-term follow-up.

Methods: We performed a population cohort study of all patients diagnosed with IBD in Norway and Sweden from 1987 to 2015. Participants were followed through linkage to national cancer, cause of death and population registers. We calculated standardized incidence ratios (SIR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and absolute risk of hepatobiliary and pancreatic cancer by PSC status and other clinical characteristics.

Results: We identified 141,960 IBD patients, 4,548 (3.2%) of these with concomitant PSC. During a median follow-up time of 10.0 years, we identified 479 biliary tract cancers (SIR 5.2, 95% CI 4.7-5.7), 127 hepatocellular carcinomas (SIR 2.1, 95% CI 1.8-2.5) and 282 pancreatic cancers (SIR 1.3, 95% CI 1.2-1.5). The relative risks were considerably higher in patients with PSC, with SIRs of 142 (95% CI 125-160) for biliary tract, 27.7 (95% CI 19.4-38.5) for hepatocellular, and 9.0 (95% CI 6.3-12.6) for pancreatic cancer. For IBD patients without PSC, we found SIRs of 2.5 (95% CI 2.2-2.9), 1.5 (1.2-1.8), and 1.2 (1.1-1.4) for biliary tract cancer, hepatocellular carcinoma, and pancreatic cancer, respectively.

Conclusion: Patients with IBD experience a substantially increased risk of biliary tract cancer. Although the risk is largely confined to patients with concomitant PSC, non-PSC patients also confer a moderate excess risk.

Citation Format: Jingru Yu, Erle Refsum, Lise M. Helsingen, Trine Folseraas, Alexander Ploner, Paulina Wieszczy, Ishita Barua, Henriette C. Jodal, Espen Melum, Magnus Løberg, Johannes Blom, Michael Bretthauer, Hans-Olov Adami, Mette Kalager, Weimin Ye. Risk of hepatobiliary & pancreatic cancer in inflammatory bowel disease [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2021; 2021 Apr 10-15 and May 17-21. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2021;81(13_Suppl):Abstract nr 841.

Dietary patterns and risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a population-based case-control study in southern China

BACKGROUND

Dietary factors, such as consumption of preserved foods, fresh vegetables, and fruits, have been linked to the risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). However, little is known about associations between dietary patterns and the risk of NPC in NPC-endemic areas.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to evaluate whether dietary patterns are associated with NPC risk.

METHODS

We studied 2554 newly diagnosed NPC patients aged 20-74 y living in 3 endemic regions of southern China, and 2648 population-based controls frequency-matched to case patients by age, sex, and region, between 2010 and 2014. Dietary components were derived from food frequency data in adulthood and adolescence using principal component analysis. Four dietary components were identified and highly similar in adulthood and adolescence. We used multivariable unconditional logistic regression to calculate ORs with 95% CIs for the association between dietary patterns and NPC risk.

RESULTS

Compared with the lowest quartile, individuals in the highest quartile of the "plant-based factor" in adulthood had a 52% (OR: 0.48; 95% CI: 0.38, 0.59) decreased risk of NPC, and those in the highest quartile of the "animal-based factor" had a >2-fold (OR: 2.26; 95% CI: 1.85, 2.77) increased risk, with a monotonic dose-response trend (P-trend < 0.0001). Similar but weaker associations were found in adolescence. High intakes of the "preserved-food factor" were associated with increased NPC risk in both periods, although stronger associations were found in adolescence. Results from joint analysis and sensitivity analyses indicated that dietary factors in adulthood might be more stable and robust predictors of NPC risk than those in adolescence.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results deliver compelling evidence that plant- and animal-based dietary factors are associated with NPC risk, and provide more insights on the associations of diets and cancer risk that may assist healthy diet recommendations.

Changes in the Trend of Sexually Acquired Chlamydia Infections in Sweden and the Role of Testing: A Time Series Analysis

BACKGROUND

We investigated the notification trends of sexually acquired chlamydia (chlamydia) and its association with testing in Sweden before (1992-2004) and after (2009-2018) the discovery of a new variant of Chlamydia trachomatis (nvCT).

METHODS

We applied monthly time series analysis to study chlamydia trends and annual time series to study chlamydia rates adjusted for testing. We analyzed incidence nationally and by county group (based on able and unable to detect nvCT at time of discovery).

RESULTS

We present data on 606,000 cases of chlamydia and 9.9 million persons tested. We found a U-shaped chlamydia trend during the period 1992-2004, with an overall increase of 83.7% from 1996 onward. The period 2009-2018 began with a stable trend at a high incidence level followed by a decrease of 19.7% during the period 2015-2018. Peaks were seen in autumn and through during winter and summer. Similar results were observed by groups of county, although with varying levels of increase and decrease in both periods. Furthermore, increased testing volume was associated with increased chlamydia rates during the first period (P = 0.019) but not the second period.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results showed that chlamydia trends during the period 2009-2018 were not driven by testing, as they were during the period 1992-2004. This suggests less biased notified chlamydia rates and thus possibly a true decrease in chlamydia incidence rates. It is important to adjust case rates for testing intensity, and future research should target other potential factors influencing chlamydia rates.

Clinical biomarkers and associations with healthspan and lifespan: Evidence from observational and genetic data

Background

Biomarker-disease relationships are extensively investigated. However, associations between common clinical biomarkers and healthspan, the disease-free lifespan, are largely unknown. We aimed to explore the predictive values of ten biomarkers on healthspan and lifespan, and to identify putative causal mechanisms.

Methods

Using data from 12,098 Swedish individuals aged 47–94 years, we examined both serum concentrations and genetically predicted levels of ten glycemic, lipid-, inflammatory, and hematological biomarkers. During a follow-up period of up to 16 years, 3681 incident cases of any chronic disease (i.e., end of healthspan) and 2674 deaths (i.e., end of lifespan) were documented. Cox regression models were applied to estimate the associations of a one standard deviation increase in biomarkers with healthspan and lifespan.

Findings

Seven out of ten serum biomarkers were significantly associated with risks of any chronic disease and death; elevated glycemic biomarkers and high-density lipoprotein-related biomarkers showed the strongest detrimental (hazard ratio [HR] 1·29 [95% CI 1·24–1·34]) and protective effects (HR 0·92 [95% CI 0·89–0·96]), respectively. Genetic predisposition to elevated fasting blood glucose (FBG) was associated with increased risks of any chronic disease (HR 1·05 [95% CI 1·02–1·09]); genetically determined higher C-reactive protein correlated with lower death risks (HR 0·91 [95% CI 0·87–0·95]). Notably, the genetically proxied FBG-healthspan association was largely explained by serum FBG concentration.

Interpretation

Circulating concentrations of glycemic, lipid-, and inflammatory biomarkers are predictive of healthspan and lifespan. Glucose control is a putative causal mechanism and a potential intervention target for healthspan maintenance.

Funding

This study was supported by the Swedish Research Council (2015–03,255, 2018–02,077), FORTE (2013–2292), the Loo & Hans Osterman Foundation, the Foundation for Geriatric Diseases, the Magnus Bergwall Foundation, the Strategic Research Program in Epidemiology at Karolinska Institutet (SH, JJ), the China Scholarship Council, and the Swedish National Graduate School for Competitive Science on Ageing and Health. The Swedish Twin Registry is managed by Karolinska Institutet and receives funding as an infrastructure through the Swedish Research Council, 2017–00,641.

Association Between Microscopic Colitis and Parkinson's Disease in a Swedish Population

BACKGROUND

Gastrointestinal inflammation has been linked with Parkinson's disease (PD). Microscopic colitis (MC) is an intestinal inflammatory disease with unknown relationship with PD.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to examine the association of MC with PD risk.

METHODS

In this nationwide matched cohort study in Sweden, PD incidence was compared between 12,609 patients with histologically confirmed MC and a matched population cohort of 58,879 MC-free individuals and a sibling cohort comprising all unaffected siblings of the MC patients (N_MC /N_Sibling  = 6281/12,351). Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox regression models.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of ~7 years, we identified 449 incident PD diagnoses among the MC patients and the population cohort. Overall, MC was associated with an adjusted HR of 1.76 for PD, but the association attenuated substantially during follow-up. In the time-varying effects model, PD hazard was 3.45-fold (95% CI: 2.42, 4.93) higher during the first 2 years after biopsy and 1.80-fold (95% CI: 1.23, 2.64) higher during the following 3 years among MC versus MC-free individuals but was not different beyond 5 years after biopsy (HR: 1.03; 95% CI: 0.68, 1.54). This temporal pattern of MC-PD associations persisted when comparing MC patients to their siblings. In a post hoc case-control analysis, we also detected a strong association between MC and preexisting PD (odds ratio: 3.46; 95% CI: 2.91, 4.12).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that MC may not be a risk factor for PD; instead, it may co-occur with PD as a comorbidity or develop after a diagnosis of PD. © 2021 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Tumor Necrosis Factor Inhibition and Parkinson Disease: A Mendelian Randomization Study

Objective

To evaluate the effects of long-term tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibition on the risk and age at onset of Parkinson disease (PD), we performed a 2-sample Mendelian randomization study using genome-wide association studies (GWAS) summary statistics.

Methods

Genetic variants in the vicinity of TNFRSF1A, the gene encoding TNF receptor 1 (TNFR1), were identified as predictive of pharmacologic blockade of TNFR1 signaling by anti-TNF therapy, based on genetic associations with lower circulating C-reactive protein (CRP; GWAS n = 204,402). The effects of TNF-TNFR1 inhibition were estimated for PD risk (n_cases/_controls = 37,688/981,372) and age at PD onset (n = 28,568) using GWAS data from the International Parkinson's Disease Genomics Consortium and 23andMe, Inc. To validate variants as proxies of long-term anti-TNF treatment, we also assessed whether variant associations reflected anticipated effects of TNFR1 inhibition on Crohn disease, ulcerative colitis, and multiple sclerosis risk (n = 38,589-45,975).

Results

TNF-TNFR1 signaling inhibition was not estimated to affect PD risk (odds ratio [OR] per 10% lower circulating CRP = 0.99; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.91–1.08) or age at onset (0.13 years later onset; 95% CI −0.66 to 0.92). In contrast, genetically indexed TNF-TNFR1 signaling blockade predicted reduced risk of Crohn disease (OR 0.75; 95% CI 0.65–0.86) and ulcerative colitis (OR 0.84; 95% CI 0.74–0.97) and increased multiple sclerosis risk (OR 1.57; 95% CI 1.36–1.81). Findings were consistent across models using different genetic instruments and Mendelian randomization estimators.

Conclusions

Our findings do not imply that TNF-TNFR1 signaling inhibition will prevent or delay PD onset.

Classification of Evidence

This study provides Class II evidence that TNF-TNFR1 signaling inhibition is not associated with the risk or age at onset of PD.

Plasma protein biomarkers for early detection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has a poor prognosis, mainly due to late diagnosis at advanced tumor stages. In this study, we aimed to identify plasma protein biomarkers for early detection of PDAC. Totally, 135 PDAC patients (early PDAC, Stage I/II, n = 71; advanced PDAC, Stage III/IV, n = 64), 13 benign lesions/chronic pancreatitis patients and 72 healthy individuals, with corresponding plasma samples from a case-control study in Sweden were included. A proximity extension assay was used to detect 92 cancer-related proteins, and an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay/electrochemiluminescence immunoassay was used to detect CA19-9. Predictive features were selected from these 93 candidate proteins and three covariates in the Swedish participants, and then validated in Spanish participants, including 37 early PDAC patients, 38 advanced PDAC patients, 19 chronic pancreatitis patients and 36 healthy controls. A panel of eight proteins discriminating early PDAC from healthy individuals was identified, and the cross-validated area under the curves (AUCs) were 0.85 (95% confidence interval, 95% CI, 0.78-0.91) and 0.81 (95% CI, 0.70-0.92) in the Swedish and Spanish participants, respectively. Another eight-protein panel was predictive for classifying advanced PDAC from healthy controls in two populations, with cross-validated AUCs of 0.89 (95% CI, 0.83-0.95) and 0.90 (95% CI, 0.83-0.98), respectively. In conclusion, eight protein biomarkers were identified and externally validated, potentially allowing early detection of PDAC patients if validated in additional prospective studies.

Concordance of Immunohistochemistry-Based and Gene Expression-Based Subtyping in Breast Cancer

Background

Use of immunohistochemistry-based surrogates of molecular breast cancer subtypes is common in research and clinical practice, but information on their comparative validity and prognostic capacity is scarce.

Methods

Data from 2 PAM50-subtyped Swedish breast cancer cohorts were used: Stockholm tamoxifen trial–3 with 561 patients diagnosed 1976-1990 and Clinseq with 237 patients diagnosed 2005-2012. We evaluated 3 surrogate classifications; the immunohistochemistry-3 surrogate classifier based on estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, and HER2 and the St. Gallen and Prolif surrogate classifiers also including Ki-67. Accuracy, kappa, sensitivity, and specificity were computed as compared with PAM50. Alluvial diagrams of misclassification patterns were plotted. Distant recurrence-free survival was assessed using Kaplan-Meier plots, and tamoxifen treatment benefit for luminal subtypes was modeled using flexible parametric survival models.

Results

The concordance with PAM50 ranged from poor to moderate (kappa = 0.36-0.57, accuracy = 0.54-0.75), with best performance for the Prolif surrogate classification in both cohorts. Good concordance was only achieved when luminal subgroups were collapsed (kappa = 0.71-0.69, accuracy = 0.90-0.91). The St. Gallen surrogate classification misclassified luminal A into luminal B; the reverse pattern was seen with the others. In distant recurrence-free survival, surrogates were more similar to each other than PAM50. The difference in tamoxifen treatment benefit between luminal A and B for PAM50 was not replicated with any surrogate classifier.

Conclusions

All surrogate classifiers had limited ability to distinguish between PAM50 luminal A and B, but patterns of misclassifications differed. PAM50 subtyping appeared to yield larger separation of survival between luminal subtypes than any of the surrogate classifications.

HPV Vaccination and the Risk of Invasive Cervical Cancer

BACKGROUND

The efficacy and effectiveness of the quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine in preventing high-grade cervical lesions have been shown. However, data to inform the relationship between quadrivalent HPV vaccination and the subsequent risk of invasive cervical cancer are lacking.

METHODS

We used nationwide Swedish demographic and health registers to follow an open population of 1,672,983 girls and women who were 10 to 30 years of age from 2006 through 2017. We assessed the association between HPV vaccination and the risk of invasive cervical cancer, controlling for age at follow-up, calendar year, county of residence, and parental characteristics, including education, household income, mother's country of birth, and maternal disease history.

RESULTS

During the study period, we evaluated girls and women for cervical cancer until their 31st birthday. Cervical cancer was diagnosed in 19 women who had received the quadrivalent HPV vaccine and in 538 women who had not received the vaccine. The cumulative incidence of cervical cancer was 47 cases per 100,000 persons among women who had been vaccinated and 94 cases per 100,000 persons among those who had not been vaccinated. After adjustment for age at follow-up, the incidence rate ratio for the comparison of the vaccinated population with the unvaccinated population was 0.51 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.32 to 0.82). After additional adjustment for other covariates, the incidence rate ratio was 0.37 (95% CI, 0.21 to 0.57). After adjustment for all covariates, the incidence rate ratio was 0.12 (95% CI, 0.00 to 0.34) among women who had been vaccinated before the age of 17 years and 0.47 (95% CI, 0.27 to 0.75) among women who had been vaccinated at the age of 17 to 30 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Among Swedish girls and women 10 to 30 years old, quadrivalent HPV vaccination was associated with a substantially reduced risk of invasive cervical cancer at the population level. (Funded by the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research and others.).

Radiation Therapy-Induced Changes of the Nasopharyngeal Commensal Microbiome in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patients

PURPOSE

The human commensal microbiome has been suggested to be involved in the regulation of response to anticancer therapies. However, little is known regarding changes in commensal microbes in patients with cancer during radiation therapy. We conducted a prospective, longitudinal proof-of-concept cohort study with patients with newly diagnosed nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) who underwent radiation therapy-based treatment.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected before radiation therapy, twice per week during radiation therapy, and after radiation therapy. The nasopharyngeal microbiome was assessed using 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing. A patient's response to treatment was measured 3 months after the completion of radiation therapy as a short-term clinical outcome. In total, 39 NPC patients with 445 nasopharyngeal samples were analyzed.

RESULTS

There was stable temporal change in the community structure of the nasopharyngeal microbiome among patients with NPC during treatment (P = .0005). Among 73 abundant amplicon sequence variants (ASVs), 7 ASVs assigned to genus Corynebacterium decreased significantly during the treatment (W-statistic >80%); 23 ASVs showed statistically significant changes in the ratio of abundance between early and late responders during treatment (false discovery rate <0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

This study addressed stable temporal change in the nasopharyngeal microbiome among patients with NPC during radiation therapy-based treatment and provided preliminary evidence of an association with a short-term clinical outcome.

A principal component approach to improve association testing with polygenic risk scores

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have become an increasingly popular approach for demonstrating polygenic influences on complex traits and for establishing common polygenic signals between different traits. PRSs are typically constructed using pruning and thresholding (P+T), but the best choice of parameters is uncertain; thus multiple settings are used and the best is chosen. Optimization can lead to inflated Type I error. Permutation procedures can correct this, but they can be computationally intensive. Alternatively, a single parameter setting can be chosen a priori for the PRS, but choosing suboptimal settings results in loss of power. We propose computing PRSs under a range of parameter settings, performing principal component analysis (PCA) on the resulting set of PRSs, and using the first PRS-PC in association tests. The first PC reweights the variants included in the PRS to achieve maximum variation over all PRS settings used. Using simulations and a real data application to study PRS association with bipolar disorder and psychosis in bipolar disorder, we compare the performance of the proposed PRS-PCA approach with a permutation test and an a priori selected p-value threshold. The PRS-PCA approach is simple to implement, outperforms the other strategies in most scenarios, and provides an unbiased estimate of prediction performance.

Clostridium difficile infection and risk of Parkinson's disease: a Swedish population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Gastrointestinal inflammation has been implicated in Parkinson's disease (PD). The aim of this study was to examine whether individuals with a history of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) are at elevated risk of PD.

METHODS

We performed a population-based cohort study using Swedish national register data. Adults aged ≥35 years were identified from the Swedish Population and Housing Census 1990 and followed during the period 1997-2013. Diagnoses of CDI and PD were extracted from the National Patient Register. Associations of CDI history with PD risk were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression. We also explored whether the association differed by the source of CDI diagnosis (inpatient vs. outpatient), presence of recurrent infections, and pre-infection use of antibiotics.

RESULTS

Amongst the study population (N = 4 670 423), 34 868 (0.75%) had a history of CDI. A total of 165 and 47 035 incident PD cases were identified from individuals with and without CDI history, respectively. Across the entire follow-up, a 16% elevation of PD risk was observed among the CDI group [hazard ratio 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI)1.00-1.36], which was mainly driven by increased PD risk within the first 2 years after CDI diagnosis (hazard ratio 1.38, 95% CI 1.12-1.69). In longer follow-up, CDI was not associated with subsequent PD occurrence. This temporal pattern of CDI-PD associations was generally observed across all CDI subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

Clostridium difficile may be associated with an increased short-term PD risk, but this might be explained by reverse causation and/or surveillance bias. Our results do not imply that CDI history affects long-term PD risk.

Subspecies Niche Specialization in the Oral Microbiome Is Associated with Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Risk

Oral health and changes in the oral microbiome have been associated with both local and systemic cancer. Poor oral hygiene is a known risk factor for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), a virally associated head and neck cancer endemic to southern China. We explored the relationship between NPC and the oral microbiome using 16S rRNA sequencing in a study of 499 NPC patients and 495 population-based age and sex frequency-matched controls from an area of endemicity of Southern China. We found a significant reduction in community richness in cases compared to that in controls. Differences in the overall microbial community structure between cases and controls could not be explained by other potential confounders; disease status explained 5 times more variation in the unweighted UniFrac distance than the next most explanatory variable. In feature-based analyses, we identified a pair of coexcluding Granulicatella adiacens amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) which were strongly associated with NPC status and differed by a single nucleotide. The G. adiacens variant an individual carried was also associated with the overall microbial community based on beta diversity. Co-occurrence analysis suggested the two G. adiacens ASVs sit at the center of two coexcluding clusters of closely related organisms. Our results suggest there are differences in the oral microbiomes between NPC patients and healthy controls, and these may be associated with both a loss of microbial diversity and niche specialization among closely related commensals.IMPORTANCE The relationship between oral health and the risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) was previously established. However, the role of oral microbiome has not been evaluated in the disease in a large epidemiological study. This paper clearly establishes a difference in the oral microbiomes between NPC patients and healthy controls which cannot be explained by other confounding factors. It furthermore identifies a pair of closely related coexcluding organisms associated with the disease, highlighting the importance of modern methods for single-nucleotide resolution in 16S rRNA sequence characterization. To the best of our knowledge, this is one of the first examples of cancer-associated niche specialization of the oral microbiome.

Impact of HPV vaccination on cervical screening performance: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination is predicted to lower the positive predictive value (PPV) of cytology.

METHODS

We included 153,250 girls born between 1989 and 1993, resident in Sweden since the introduction of HPV vaccines (October 2006) and attending cervical screening at age 23 years. We assessed their first cytology and following histopathological diagnosis using Swedish National Cervical Screening Registry (NKCx). By linkage with the national Swedish HPV vaccination registry, we determined PPV of abnormal cytology for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (CIN2+) and the differences with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) according to vaccination status.

RESULTS

The PPV of high-grade cytology for CIN2+ was 69.9% (95% CI, 67.9-71.9), 64.9% (95% CI, 59.8-69.8) and 57.4% (95% CI, 50.9-63.7) among women unvaccinated, initiating vaccination at age 17-22 years and initiating vaccination before age 17 years, corresponding to reduction in PPV by 8% (95% CI, 0-15%) and 17% (95% CI, 7-26%) in vaccinated groups after adjustment for birth cohort, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The PPV of cytology for CIN2+ decreased among vaccinated women, and the decrease was stronger for girls vaccinated at younger ages. A switch from cytology to HPV testing might potentially improve the screening performance.

Longitudinal trajectories, correlations and mortality associations of nine biological ages across 20-years follow-up

Biological age measurements (BAs) assess aging-related physiological change and predict health risks among individuals of the same chronological age (CA). Multiple BAs have been proposed and are well studied individually but not jointly. We included 845 individuals and 3973 repeated measurements from a Swedish population-based cohort and examined longitudinal trajectories, correlations, and mortality associations of nine BAs across 20 years follow-up. We found the longitudinal growth of functional BAs accelerated around age 70; average levels of BA curves differed by sex across the age span (50-90 years). All BAs were correlated to varying degrees; correlations were mostly explained by CA. Individually, all BAs except for telomere length were associated with mortality risk independently of CA. The largest effects were seen for methylation age estimators (GrimAge) and the frailty index (FI). In joint models, two methylation age estimators (Horvath and GrimAge) and FI remained predictive, suggesting they are complementary in predicting mortality.

Past and Recent Salted Fish and Preserved Food Intakes Are Weakly Associated with Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Risk in Adults in Southern China

BACKGROUND

Chinese-style salted fish intake in early life is considered an established risk factor for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). However, results for adult intakes of salted fish and preserved foods are inconsistent.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to ascertain the relations of Chinese-style hard and soft salted fish and preserved food intakes with NPC risk.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based case-control study in southern China with 2554 NPC cases identified through a rapid case ascertainment system and 2648 healthy controls, frequency-matched on age, sex, and area. Subjects (aged 20-74 y) were interviewed via a food-frequency questionnaire, including information on portion size. Data were also collected on alcohol consumption and potential confounders. Food intake was grouped into 3-5 energy-adjusted intake levels during adulthood (10 y prior) and adolescence (16-18 y). For childhood (at age 10 y), intake frequency of selected food items was collected. Multivariate-adjusted ORs with 95% CIs were estimated via logistic regression.

RESULTS

We found no association between NPC and intake of hard Chinese-style salted fish during adulthood, and an increased risk at the highest level of intake during adolescence (OR: 1.19; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.39). In contrast, we found a decreased risk for the middle intake level of soft salted fish during adulthood (OR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.57, 0.81) and adolescence (OR: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.59, 0.85). Preserved foods showed contrasting risk profiles, e.g., the highest adult intake level of salted egg (OR: 1.51; 95% CI: 1.22, 1.87) and fermented black beans (OR: 0.67; 95% CI: 0.56, 0.80). Associations with NPC were weaker than previously reported, e.g., for weekly childhood intake of salted fish (OR: 1.56; 95% CI: 1.24, 1.97).

CONCLUSIONS

Hard and soft salted fish have different risk profiles. Salted fish and other preserved foods were at most weak risk factors for NPC in all periods and may play a smaller role in NPC occurrence than previously thought.

Short-term and long-term case-fatality rates for myocardial infarction and ischaemic stroke by socioeconomic position and sex: a population-based cohort study in Sweden, 1990-1994 and 2005-2009

OBJECTIVE

Case-fatality rates (CFRs) for myocardial infarction (MI) and ischaemic stroke (IS) have decreased over time due to better prevention, medication and hospital care. It is unclear whether these improvements have been equally distributed according to socioeconomic position (SEP) and sex. The aim of this study is to analyse differences in short-term and long-term CFR for MI and IS by SEP and sex between the periods 1990-1994 to 2005-2009 for the entire Swedish population.

DESIGN

Population-based cohort study based on Swedish national registers.

METHODS

We used logistic regression and flexible parametric models to estimate short-term CFR (death before reaching the hospital or on the disease event day) and long-term CFR (1 year case-fatality conditional on surviving short-term) across five distinct SEP groups, as well as CFR differences (CFRDs) between SEP groups for both MI and IS from 1990-1994 to 2005-2009. : Result S: Overall short-term CFR for both MI and IS decreased between study periods. For MI, differences in short-term and long-term CFR between the least and most favourable SEP group were generally stable, except in long-term CFR among women; intermediate SEP groups mostly managed to catch up with the most favourable SEP group. For IS, short-term CFRD generally decreased compared with the most favourable group; but long-term CFRD were mostly stable, except for an increase for older subjects.

CONCLUSION

Despite a general decline in CFR for MI and IS across all SEP groups and both sexes as well as some reductions in CFRD, we found persistent and even increasing CFRD among the least advantaged SEP groups, older patients and women. We speculate that targeted prevention rather than treatment strategies have the potential to reduce these inequalities.

Cervical cancer case-control audit: Results from routine evaluation of a nationwide cervical screening program

Our study used a refined case–control cervical cancer Audit framework to investigate effectiveness of cervical screening, with measures of three screening failures: irregular‐participation, cervical cancer developed after cytological abnormalities and after normal screening results. The register‐based study included 4,254 cervical cancer cases diagnosed in Sweden during 2002–2011, and 30 population‐based controls per case. We used conditional logistic regression models to examine relative risks of cervical cancer in relation to screening participation and screening results in the past two screening rounds from 6 months before cancer diagnosis. We found that women unscreened in past two screening rounds showed four times increased risk of cervical cancer compared to women screened in time (OR = 4.1, 95% CI = 3.8–4.5), and women unscreened in the previous round but screened in the most recent round also showed a statistically significantly elevated risk (OR = 1.6, 95% CI = 1.5–1.8). Women having abnormality in previous two rounds exhibited higher risk of cervical cancer compared to women screened with normal results, while having normal results in the subsequent round after the abnormality also yielded an increased risk (OR = 4.0, 95% CI = 3.2–5.1). Being screened with only normal results was associated with 89% risk reduction for squamous cell cancer, compared to women unscreened, but only 60% reduction for adenocarcinoma. Our findings emphasize the importance of routine participation in cervical screening and suggest that management of abnormalities, as well as sensitivity of the test, warrants improvement especially for preventing cervical adenocarcinoma. The Audit framework serves as routine evaluation model and the findings benchmark for future evaluation of changes in screening practice.

What's new?

Systematic review of cancer screening is critical to ensuring high‐quality, effective disease prevention and detection and management. In this study, case–control audit was used to evaluate cervical cancer screening in Sweden. Analyses show that relative to women who undergo routine screening, cervical cancer risk is elevated for women who are screened at irregular intervals. Risk was significantly increased among women with abnormalities detected at screening. The audit further revealed that, overall, management of abnormalities for preventing cervical adenocarcinoma is inferior compared to squamous cell cancer. The findings suggest that case–control auditing is a useful means of evaluating cervical screening programs.

Human papillomavirus genotype and prognosis of invasive cervical cancer: A nationwide cohort study

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Background: The role of human papillomavirus (HPV) in development from oncogenic infection to invasive cervical cancer (ICC) has been well established. However, the association of HPV genotypes and prognosis of ICC is controversial. Methods: We identified all ICC diagnosed in Sweden during the years 2002-2011 (4254 confirmed cases after clinical and histo-pathological review), requested all archival formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded blocks and subjected them to comprehensive HPV genotyping. Twenty out of twenty-five archives agreed to the study, contributing a total of 2845 confirmed cases with valid HPV results. Cases were followed up from date of cancer diagnosis to 31 December, 2015, migration from Sweden, or death; whichever occurred first. Five-year relative survival ratios (RSRs) were calculated and excess hazard ratios (EHRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Poisson regression. Results: HPV was detected in 2365 tumors (83.1% of all cases). The five-year RSR by tumor HPV status was 0.54 (HPV negative), 0.76 (HPV16 positive), 0.73 (HPV18 positive), 0.72 (other high-risk HPV positive) and 0.56 (low-risk HPV positive) compared to the age-matched general female population. Compared to cases with HPV-negative tumor, a significantly lower excess mortality was seen if the tumor was positive for HPV16 (EHR:0.54, 95% CI 0.44-0.65), other high-risk HPV (EHR:0.47, 95% CI 0.37-0.60), and low-risk HPV (EHR:0.48, 95% CI 0.32-0.74), after adjustment for age, time since cancer diagnosis, International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage, educational level and histology. However, the mortality among women with HPV18 positive tumors were not statistically significantly different from cases with HPV-negative tumors. In women with a single HPV infection of either HPV16 or HPV18, those with HPV18-positive tumors had 56% (EHR:1.56, 95% CI: 1.13-1.97) higher excess mortality compared to women with HPV16-positive tumors. Conclusions: HPV genotype in cervical cancer tumor is associated with prognosis of ICC. Single HPV18 positivity indicated a poorer prognosis than single HPV16 positivity. This could add information of value beyond the established clinical prognostic factors for women diagnosed with ICC.

The frailty index is a predictor of cause-specific mortality independent of familial effects from midlife onwards: a large cohort study

BACKGROUND

Frailty index (FI) is a well-established predictor of all-cause mortality, but less is known for cause-specific mortality and whether familial effects influence the associations. Middle-aged individuals are also understudied for the association between FI and mortality. Furthermore, the population mortality impact of frailty remains understudied.

METHODS

We estimated the predictive value of FI for all-cause and cause-specific mortality, taking into account familial factors, and tested whether the associations are time-dependent. We also assessed the proportion of all-cause and cause-specific deaths that are attributable to increased levels of frailty. We analyzed 42,953 participants from the Screening Across the Lifespan Twin Study (aged 41-95 years at baseline) with up to 20 years' mortality follow-up. The FI was constructed using 44 health-related items. Deaths due to cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory-related causes, and cancer were considered in the cause-specific analysis. Generalized survival models were used in the analysis.

RESULTS

Increased FI was associated with higher risks of all-cause, CVD, and respiratory-related mortality, with the corresponding hazard ratios of 1.28 (1.24, 1.32), 1.31 (1.23, 1.40), and 1.23 (1.11, 1.38) associated with a 10% increase in FI in male single responders, and 1.21 (1.18, 1.25), 1.27 (1.15, 1.34), and 1.26 (1.15, 1.39) in female single responders. No significant associations were observed for cancer mortality. No attenuation of the mortality associations in unrelated individuals was observed when adjusting for familial effects in twin pairs. The associations were time-dependent with relatively greater effects observed in younger ages. Before the age of 80, the proportions of deaths attributable to FI levels > 0.21 were 18.4% of all-cause deaths, 25.4% of CVD deaths, and 20.4% of respiratory-related deaths in men and 19.2% of all-cause deaths, 27.8% of CVD deaths, and 28.5% of respiratory-related deaths in women. After the age of 80, the attributable proportions decreased, most notably for all-cause and CVD mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased FI predicts higher risks of all-cause, CVD, and respiratory-related mortality independent of familial effects. Increased FI presents a relatively greater risk factor at midlife than in old age. Increased FI has a significant population mortality impact that is greatest through midlife until the age of 80.

Cervical screening and risk of adenosquamous and rare histological types of invasive cervical carcinoma: population based nested case-control study

OBJECTIVES

To examine the association of cervical cytology screening with the risk of adenosquamous cell carcinoma (ASC) and rare histological types of invasive cervical carcinoma (RICC), using comprehensive registry data, and to assess tumour human papillomavirus status of ASC and RICC.

DESIGN

Nationwide, population based, nested case-control study.

SETTING

Sweden.

PARTICIPANTS

All cases of invasive cervical carcinoma in Sweden during 2002-11 (4254 confirmed cases after clinical and histopathological review). 338 cases were neither squamous cell carcinoma nor adenocarcinoma, including 164 cases of ASC and 174 cases of RICC (glassy cell carcinoma, clear cell carcinoma, small cell carcinoma, neuroendocrine cell carcinoma, large cell carcinoma, and undifferentiated carcinoma). 30 birth year matched controls from the general Swedish population were matched to each case by applying incidence density sampling.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Conditional logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios, interpreted as incidence rate ratios, for risk of ASC and RICC in relation to screening status and screening history, adjusted for education. Human papillomavirus distribution of ASC and RICC was based on available archival tumour tissues from most Swedish pathology biobanks.

RESULTS

Women with two screening tests in the previous two recommended screening intervals had a lower risk of ASC (incidence rate ratio 0.22, 95% confidence interval 0.14 to 0.34) and RICC (0.34, 0.21 to 0.55), compared with women without any test. High risk human papillomavirus was detected in 148/211 (70%) cases with valid human papillomavirus results from tumour tissues. The risk reduction among women with tumours that were positive (incidence rate ratio 0.28, 0.18 to 0.46) and negative (0.27, 0.13 to 0.59) for high risk human papillomavirus was similar, compared with women who did not attend any test.

CONCLUSIONS

Cervical screening is associated with reduced risk of ASC and RICC, and most ASC and RICC are positive for high risk human papillomavirus. This evidence provides a benchmark for evaluating future cervical screening strategies.

Mode of HPV vaccination delivery and equity in vaccine uptake: A nationwide cohort study

Ten years after its introduction, equity in human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine uptake remains unattained, not least for the groups at highest risk of cervical cancer. In Sweden, three different delivery modes of the vaccine have been in effect since May 2007. We used this as a natural experiment to investigate girls' HPV vaccine uptake in relation to parental country of birth and socioeconomic characteristics, by mode of delivery. Our nationwide study cohort comprised 689,676 girls born between 1990 and 2003. Data on HPV vaccination of the girls and parental birth/socioeconomic characteristics were retrieved from national registers. We examined the association between girls' vaccine uptake and parental characteristics, stratified by mode of delivery. The cumulative uptake of at least one dose of HPV vaccine was 37%, 48% and 79% for subsidised opportunistic, free-of-charge catch-up outside-school and free-of-charge school-based vaccination, respectively. In the subsidised vaccination, having parents born outside of Sweden, with low education and low family income was strongly associated with lower uptake [HR (95% confidence interval (CI)) = 0.49 (0.48-0.50), 0.32 (0.31-0.33), 0.53 (0.52-0.54), respectively]. The associations were partially reduced in catch-up outside-school, and strongly reduced in school-based vaccination delivery [HR (95% CI) =0.82 (0.81-0.83), 0.92 (0.91-0.94), 0.87 (0.85-0.88), respectively]. Free-of-charge school-based HPV vaccination achieved the highest uptake and displayed the least disparity in country of birth and socioeconomic background of the parents. This appears to be the most effective and equitable delivery mode for reaching high population vaccination coverage, including high-risk groups for cervical cancer.

Joint Contributions of Rare Copy Number Variants and Common SNPs to Risk for Schizophrenia

OBJECTIVE

Both rare copy number variants (CNVs) and common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) contribute to liability to schizophrenia, but their etiological relationship has not been fully elucidated. The authors evaluated an additive model whereby risk of schizophrenia requires less contribution from common SNPs in the presence of a rare CNV, and tested for interactions.

METHOD

Genetic data from 21,094 case subjects with schizophrenia and 20,227 control subjects from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium were examined. Three classes of rare CNVs were assessed: CNVs previously associated with schizophrenia, CNVs with large deletions ≥500 kb, and total CNV burden. The mean polygenic risk scores (PRSs) between study subjects with and without rare CNVs were compared, and joint effects of PRS and CNVs on schizophrenia liability were modeled by using logistic regression.

RESULTS

Schizophrenia case subjects carrying risk CNVs had a lower polygenic risk than case subjects without risk CNVs but a higher risk than control subjects. For case subjects carrying known risk CNVs, the PRS was diminished in proportion to the effect size of the CNV. The strongly associated 22q11.2 deletion required little added PRS to produce schizophrenia. Large deletions and increased CNV burden were also associated with lower polygenic risk in schizophrenia case subjects but not in control subjects or after removal of known risk CNV carriers.

CONCLUSIONS

The authors found evidence for interactive effects of PRS and previously associated CNVs for risk for schizophrenia, and the results for large deletions and total CNV burden support an additive model. These findings offer insights into the genetic architecture of schizophrenia by illuminating how different established genetic risk factors act and interact to influence liability to schizophrenia.

PPD ACT: an app-based genetic study of postpartum depression

Postpartum depression (PPD) is one of the most frequent complications of childbirth and particularly is suited to genetic investigation as it is more homogenous than major depression outside of the perinatal period. We developed an iOS app (PPD ACT) to recruit, consent, screen, and enable DNA collection from women with a lifetime history of PPD to sufficiently power genome-wide association studies. In 1 year, we recruited 7344 women with a history of PPD and have biobanked 2946 DNA samples from the US. This sample of PPD cases was notably severely affected and within 2 years of their worst episode of PPD. Clinical validation was performed within a hospital setting on a subset of participants and recall validity assessed 6-9 months after initial assessment to ensure reliability of screening tools. Here we detail the creation of the PPD ACT mobile app including design, ethical, security, and deployment considerations. We emphasize the importance of multidisciplinary collaboration to correctly implement such a research project. Additionally, we describe our ability to customize the PPD ACT platform to deploy internationally in order to collect a global sample of women with PPD.

High-risk human papillomavirus status and prognosis in invasive cervical cancer: A nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

High-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) infection is established as the major cause of invasive cervical cancer (ICC). However, whether hrHPV status in the tumor is associated with subsequent prognosis of ICC is controversial. We aim to evaluate the association between tumor hrHPV status and ICC prognosis using national registers and comprehensive human papillomavirus (HPV) genotyping.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

In this nationwide population-based cohort study, we identified all ICC diagnosed in Sweden during the years 2002-2011 (4,254 confirmed cases), requested all archival formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded blocks, and performed HPV genotyping. Twenty out of 25 pathology biobanks agreed to the study, yielding a total of 2,845 confirmed cases with valid HPV results. Cases were prospectively followed up from date of cancer diagnosis to 31 December 2015, migration from Sweden, or death, whichever occurred first. The main exposure was tumor hrHPV status classified as hrHPV-positive and hrHPV-negative. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality by 31 December 2015. Five-year relative survival ratios (RSRs) were calculated, and excess hazard ratios (EHRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Poisson regression, adjusting for education, time since cancer diagnosis, and clinical factors including age at cancer diagnosis and International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage. Of the 2,845 included cases, hrHPV was detected in 2,293 (80.6%), and we observed 1,131 (39.8%) deaths during an average of 6.2 years follow-up. The majority of ICC cases were diagnosed at age 30-59 years (57.5%) and classified as stage IB (40.7%). hrHPV positivity was significantly associated with screen-detected tumors, young age, high education level, and early stage at diagnosis (p < 0.001). The 5-year RSR compared to the general female population was 0.74 (95% CI 0.72-0.76) for hrHPV-positive cases and 0.54 (95% CI 0.50-0.59) for hrHPV-negative cases, yielding a crude EHR of 0.45 (95% CI 0.38-0.52) and an adjusted EHR of 0.61 (95% CI 0.52-0.71). Risk of all-cause mortality as measured by EHR was consistently and statistically significantly lower for cases with hrHPV-positive tumors for each age group above 29 years and each FIGO stage above IA. The difference in prognosis by hrHPV status was highly robust, regardless of the clinical, histological, and educational characteristics of the cases. The main limitation was that, except for education, we were not able to adjust for lifestyle factors or other unmeasured confounders.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, women with hrHPV-positive cervical tumors had a substantially better prognosis than women with hrHPV-negative tumors. hrHPV appears to be a biomarker for better prognosis in cervical cancer independent of age, FIGO stage, and histological type, extending information from already established prognostic factors. The underlying biological mechanisms relating lack of detectable tumor hrHPV to considerably worse prognosis are not known and should be further investigated.

Effectiveness of varying number of doses and timing between doses of quadrivalent HPV vaccine against severe cervical lesions

BACKGROUND

Based on immunogenicity studies, a 2 dose HPV vaccination-schedule was recently recommended for girls younger than 15 years. We aimed to investigate the effectiveness of quadrivalent HPV (qHPV) vaccination against CIN2 or worse (CIN2+), by age at vaccination, number of doses, and to test whether optimal timing of 2 doses of qHPV vaccine can confer the same level of protection as the originally recommended three dose-schedule.

METHODS

A population-based cohort of all women aged 13-30 years, living in Denmark or Sweden during 2006-2013, was followed for qHPV vaccination status and first occurrence of CIN2+.

RESULTS

The study cohort comprised 2,253,561 women, of which 33% were vaccinated during follow-up, and 1.7% were diagnosed with CIN2+. Vaccination at ages 13-16 and 17-19 was associated with a reduced risk of CIN2+ after 3 doses (IRR = 0.23, 95% CI 0.11-0.49, and IRR = 0.65, 95% CI 0.41-1.03, respectively), compared to being unvaccinated. After 1 and 2 doses there was a reduced risk, but not statistically significant. Women vaccinated ages 13-16 with 2 doses, where time between first and second dose was 5 months or longer showed no difference in risk compared to 3 doses.

CONCLUSIONS

Women vaccinated with 3 doses of qHPV showed a reduced risk of CIN2+ if they were vaccinated before age 20, with a further reduced risk if vaccinated before age 17. Vaccination with 2 doses, with the second dose 5 months or longer after the first dose, did not yield an increased risk of CIN2+, compared to 3 doses.

Association between poor oral health and gastric cancer: A prospective cohort study

Poor oral health may be involved in the pathogenesis of gastric cancer, however, some aspects have not been explored. Further, for previously studied aspects, for example, tooth-loss, the findings are inconsistent. We conducted a prospective cohort study of 19,831 participants from Uppsala, Sweden, cancer-free at baseline in 1973-1974 and followed until 2012 through linkage to national registers. We found that individuals with fewest teeth at baseline had an increased risk of gastric cancer relative to subjects with all examined teeth present (p = 1.75e-2). Presence of denture-associated lesions was also associated with an increased risk of gastric cancer (p = 1.00e-4). However, these excess risks significantly varied with attained age; estimated hazard ratio (HR) at attained age 50 for tooth loss was 4.24 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.83-9.80] and 5.91 (95% CI 2.76-12.63) for denture-associated lesions, decreasing at an estimated 4% and 6% per year respectively, resulting in HR of 1.54 (95% CI 0.90-2.64) for tooth loss and HR 1.29 (95% CI 0.90-1.85) for denture-associated lesions at attained age 75. No increased risk of gastric cancer was found for individuals with higher levels of dental plaque, or with Candida-related or tongue lesions. In conclusion, tooth-loss and denture-associated lesions are associated with increased risks of gastric cancer. Previous conflicting findings of tooth-loss and gastric cancer risk may partly be explained by the age-varying relative risk of gastric cancer.

Family history of gastric mucosal abnormality and the risk of gastric cancer: a population-based observational study

Background

An increased prevalence of gastric premalignant abnormalities was reported among relatives of gastric cancer (GC) patients, with rather unexplored clinical significance.

Methods

In Swedish computerized pathology registers, we identified, as 'index' persons, 232 681 patients who were born after 1931 and underwent endoscopic examination with stomach biopsy between 1979 and 2014. Through linkage with the Multi-Generation Register, we compiled a cohort consisting of 903 337 first-degree relatives of these biopsied patients. The relatives were grouped according to their 'family histories', defined as the first gastric mucosal diagnosis of the index person or GC family history known before that. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) provided comparisons with the matched general population. For internal comparisons with relatives with 'normal/minor changes' mucosal family history, hazard ratios (HRs) were derived from adjusted Cox regression modelling.

Results

During follow-up, 1302 relatives developed GC. Crude incidence rates of non-cardia GC were 7.7 × 10-5 year-1 for the 'normal/minor changes' family history group (SIR = 1.0), 11.2 to 12.6 × 10-5 year-1 for precancerous changes groups (atrophic gastritis/intestinal metaplasia/dysplasia, SIR = 1.5 to 1.6), and 18.4 × 10-5 year-1 for those with a family history of GC (SIR = 2.3). HRs derived from Cox models corroborated the family history-related risk pattern, with the most conspicuous trend observed among siblings-a family history of any precancerous changes and GC was associated with, respectively, a 2.5-fold and a 3.8-fold increment in non-cardia GC hazard, compared with siblings of index persons with 'normal/minor mucosal changes'.

Conclusions

The precancerous mucosal abnormalities recorded in a person's first-degree relatives may improve GC risk stratification for this person.

Substantially reduced incidence of genital warts in women and men six years after HPV vaccine availability in Sweden

BACKGROUND

Between 2007 and 2011, opportunistic HPV-vaccination was available in Sweden and partially subsidized to girls aged 13-17, reaching a ∼30% overall coverage.

METHODS

All Swedish women/men aged 15-44 were followed between 2006 and 2012 for condyloma. Average annual percent changes (AAPCs) in incidence were estimated.

RESULTS

Substantial decreases were seen in women aged 15-24 from 2008-onwards (AACP-range: -8.5% to -18.5%); similar effects were seen for men aged 15-29 (AACP-range: -7.0% to -16.6%) from 2010-onwards.

DISCUSSION

Despite low population vaccination coverage in women and no coverage in men, similar condyloma incidence reductions were observed among men and women, with delays of >1 years in men.

Apolipoprotein E DNA methylation and late-life disease

Background

This study aims to investigate if DNA methylation of the apolipoprotein E (APOE) locus affects the risks of dementia, Alzheimeŕs disease (AD) or cardiovascular disease (CVD).

Methods

DNA methylation across theAPOE gene has previously been categorized into three distinct regions: a hypermethylated region in the promoter, a hypomethylated region in the first two introns and exons and a hypermethylated region in the 3′exon that also harbours theAPOE ε2 and ε4 alleles. DNA methylation levels in leukocytes were measured using the Illumina 450K array in 447 Swedish twins (mean age 78.1 years). We used logistic regression to investigate whether methylation levels in those regions affect the odds of disease.

Results

We found that methylation levels in the promoter region were associated with dementia and AD after adjusting for sex, age at blood draw, education, smoking and relatedness among twins [odds ratio (OR) 1.32 per standard deviation increase in methylation levels, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08–1.62 for dementia; OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.07–1.78 for AD). We did not detect any difference in methylation levels between CVD cases and controls. Results were similar when comparing within discordant twin pairs, and did not differ as a function ofAPOE genotype.

Conclusions

We found that higher DNA methylation levels in the promoter region ofAPOE increase the odds of dementia and AD, but not CVD. The effect was independent ofAPOE genotype, indicating that allelic variation and methylation variation inAPOE may act independently to increase the risk of dementia.

Effectiveness of cervical screening after age 60 years according to screening history: Nationwide cohort study in Sweden

BACKGROUND

The relatively high incidence of cervical cancer in women at older ages is a continuing concern in countries with long-established cervical screening. Controversy remains on when and how to cease screening. Existing population-based studies on the effectiveness of cervical screening at older ages have not considered women's screening history. We performed a nationwide cohort study to investigate the incidence of cervical cancer after age 60 years and its association with cervical screening at age 61-65, stratified by screening history at age 51-60.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Using the Total Population Register, we identified 569,132 women born between 1 January 1919 and 31 December 1945, resident in Sweden since age 51. Women's cytological screening records, cervical cancer occurrence, and FIGO stage (for those diagnosed with cancer) were retrieved from national registers and medical charts. We calculated the cumulative incidence of cervical cancer from age 61 to age 80 using a survival function considering competing risk, and estimated the hazard ratio (HR) of cervical cancer in relation to screening status at age 61-65 from Cox models, adjusted for birth cohort and level of education, conditioning on women's screening history in their 50s. In women unscreened in their 50s, the cumulative incidence up to age 80 was 5.0 per 1,000 women, and screening at age 61-65 was associated with a lower risk for cervical cancer (HR = 0.42, 95% CI 0.24-0.72), corresponding to a decrease of 3.3 cancer cases per 1,000 women. A higher cumulative incidence and similarly statistically significant risk decrease was seen for women with abnormal smears in their 50s. In women adequately or inadequately screened with only normal results between age 51 and age 60, the cumulative incidence of cervical cancer from age 61 to 80 was 1.6 and 2.5 per 1,000 women, respectively, and further screening at age 61-65 was not associated with statistically significant decreases of cervical cancer risk up to age 80, but with fewer cancer cases of advanced stages at age 61-65. Adjustment for potential lifestyle confounders was limited.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, cervical screening with cytology at age 61-65 was associated with a statistically significant reduction of subsequent cervical cancer risk for women who were unscreened, or screened with abnormalities, in their 50s. In women screened with normal results in their 50s, the risk for future cancer was not sizeable, and the risk reduction associated with continued screening appeared limited. These findings should inform the current debate regarding age and criteria to discontinue cervical screening.

Cigarette- and snus-modified association between unprotected exposure to noise from hunting rifle caliber weapons and high frequency hearing loss. A cross-sectional study among swedish hunters

Aim:

To investigate in this cross-sectional study among Swedish hunters if tobacco use modifies the previously observed association, expressed as prevalence ratio (PR), between unprotected exposure to impulse noise from hunting rifle caliber (HRC) weapons and high-frequency hearing impairment (HFHI).

Settings and Design:

A nationwide cross-sectional epidemiologic study was conducted among Swedish sport hunters in 2012.

Materials and Methods:

The study was Internet-based and consisted of a questionnaire and an Internet-based audiometry test.

Results:

In all, 202 hunters completed a questionnaire regarding the hearing test. Associations were modeled using Poisson regression. Current, daily use of tobacco was reported by 61 hunters (19 used cigarettes, 47 moist snuff, and 5 both). Tobacco users tended to be younger, fire more shots with HRC weapons, and report more hunting days. Their adjusted PR (1–6 unprotected HRC shots versus 0) was 3.2 (1.4–6.7), P = 0.01. Among the nonusers of tobacco, the corresponding PR was 1.3 (0.9–1.8), P = 0.18. P value for the interaction was 0.01. The importance of ear protection could not be quantified among hunters with HRC weapons because our data suggested that the HFHI outcome had led to changes in the use of such protection. Among hunters using weapons with less sound energy, however, no or sporadic use of hearing protection was linked to a 60% higher prevalence of HFHI, relative to habitual use.

Conclusion:

Tobacco use modifies the association between exposure to unprotected impulse noise from HRC weapons and the probability of having HFHI among susceptible hunters. The mechanisms remain to be clarified, but because the effect modification was apparent also among the users of smokeless tobacco, combustion products may not be critical for this effect.

Assessment of Breast Cancer Risk Factors Reveals Subtype Heterogeneity

Subtype heterogeneity for breast cancer risk factors has been suspected, potentially reflecting etiologic differences and implicating risk prediction. However, reports are conflicting regarding the presence of heterogeneity for many exposures. To examine subtype heterogeneity across known breast cancer risk factors, we conducted a case-control analysis of 2,632 breast cancers and 15,945 controls in Sweden. Molecular subtype was predicted from pathology record-derived IHC markers by a classifier trained on PAM50 subtyping. Multinomial logistic regression estimated separate ORs for each subtype by the exposures parity, age at first birth, breastfeeding, menarche, hormone replacement therapy use, somatotype at age 18, benign breast disease, mammographic density, polygenic risk score, family history of breast cancer, and BRCA mutations. We found clear subtype heterogeneity for genetic factors and breastfeeding. Polygenic risk score was associated with all subtypes except for the basal-like (P_{heterogeneity} < 0.0001). "Never breastfeeding" was associated with increased risk of basal-like subtype [OR 4.17; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.89-9.21] compared with both nulliparity (reference) and breastfeeding. Breastfeeding was not associated with risk of HER2-overexpressing type, but protective for all other subtypes. The observed heterogeneity in risk of distinct breast cancer subtypes for germline variants supports heterogeneity in etiology and has implications for their use in risk prediction. The association between basal-like subtype and breastfeeding merits more research into potential causal mechanisms and confounders. Cancer Res; 77(13); 3708-17. ©2017 AACR.