Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.

METHODS

Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.

FINDINGS

In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]).

INTERPRETATION

Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A near real-time electronic health record-based COVID-19 surveillance system: An experience from a developing country

CONTEXT

Access to real-time data that provide accurate and timely information about the status and extent of disease spread could assist management of the COVID-19 pandemic and inform decision-making.

AIM

To demonstrate our experience with regard to implementation of technical and architectural infrastructure for a near real-time electronic health record-based surveillance system for COVID-19 in Iran.

METHOD

This COVID-19 surveillance system was developed from hospital information and electronic health record (EHR) systems available in the study hospitals in conjunction with a set of open-source solutions; and designed to integrate data from multiple resources to provide near real-time access to COVID-19 patients' data, as well as a pool of health data for analytical and decision-making purposes.

OUTCOMES

Using this surveillance system, we were able to monitor confirmed and suspected cases of COVID-19 in our population and to automatically notify stakeholders. Based on aggregated data collected, this surveillance system was able to facilitate many activities, such as resource allocation for hospitals, including managing bed allocations, providing and distributing equipment and funding, and setting up isolation centres.

CONCLUSION

Electronic health record systems and an integrated data analytics infrastructure are effective tools to enable policymakers to make better decisions, and for epidemiologists to conduct improved analyses regarding COVID-19.

IMPLICATIONS

Improved quality of clinical coding for better case finding, improved quality of health information in data sources, data-sharing agreements, and increased EHR coverage in the population can empower EHR-based COVID-19 surveillance systems.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effect of different bariatric surgery methods on metabolic syndrome in patients with severe obesity

Bariatric surgery (BS) has been as a currently developed treatment of choice for metabolic syndrome (MetS). Which, in turn, is well-known as serious public health concern. Therefore, this study assessed the outcomes of different procedures of BS and possible predictors for improving MetS. This single-center retrospective cohort analysis included bariatric candidates between 2009 and 2017. The operational approach was chosen based on the patient's condition, as well as the patient's metabolic profile and the surgeon's experience. All desired information was evaluated at baseline and 6, 12, and 24 months after the operation. Of the 1111 patients included, 918 (82.6%) were female. There was no considerable trend in the improvement of MetS over the follow-up period of each surgery group. After 6 to 24 months of follow-up, waist circumference reduction was significant in all three types of surgery, and sleeve gastrectomy resulted in the best (but not significant) improvement rates after 24 months (P = 0.079). One anastomosis gastric bypass had highest decrease in percentage of excess weight loss than other procedures (P < 0.001). Each year increase in age was associated with a 4% decrease in MetS remission. In addition, the male gender, was correlated with MetS improvement positively (P = 0.049). Each one-unit increase in hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) reduced the MetS remission rate by 40%. All three methods of BS were similarly effective in MetS. Consider the predictive value of age, gender, and HbA1c before determining the optimum procedure for each patient is recommended.

Laparoscopic small bowel length measurement: nonassociative nature of total small bowel length with anthropometric and clinical characteristics in patients undergoing bariatric surgery

BACKGROUND

Small bowel length (SBL) may have an impact on the outcomes of bariatric surgeries, but it can be difficult to make a direct association between SBL and the safety and outcome of bariatric surgeries.

OBJECTIVES

To address this issue, we set out to devise a predictive model for SBL determination based on clinical and anthropometric variables.

SETTING

An academic tertiary medical center.

METHODS

Anthropometric and clinical data, including age, sex, height, weight, and past medical history, were collected upon enrollment. SBL was measured twice during the surgery using a marked grasper. In all cases, measurements were carried out by a single surgeon. To create a predictive model, a 2-step approach was employed. In the first step, linear regression was used to determine influential variables. In the second step, all variables with a P value < .2 were entered into a multivariate regression model.

RESULTS

Overall, 961 bariatric candidates were enrolled. The mean age of the participants was 40.08 years, and 77.5% (n = 745) were female. The mean SBL was 748.90 centimeters. There was a weak but statistically significant positive correlation between SBL with both weight and height. Our univariate linear model determined only anthropometric parameters as a predictor of SBL. The multivariate model also yielded that none of the entered parameters were shown to be accurate predictors of SBL. Moreover, only 4.3% of variances were explainable by this model.

CONCLUSION

Although we found a weak positive association between height and SBL, this association lacked clinical practicality.

Comparing the Familiarity of the Basic and Clinical Faculty Members of Iran University of Medical Sciences with the Principles of Digital Professionalism

Background

Due to the changing conditions of education, research, and treatment in the world, especially the recent pandemic, and more use of virtual space, there is a need for evaluation of digital professionalism in faculty members as the most influential people who have a direct and deep impact on the next generation.

Methods

In this analytical cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2023 on 149 faculty members of Iran University of Medical Sciences, they were invited to participate in the study through various methods (SMS, E-mail, and media messages). The link to the Persian standardized questionnaire was made available for participants. If a person received less than 70% of the score in each area, he/she would receive solutions to improve his/her situation in that area at the end of answering the questions. The self-administered questionnaire has 5 fields and 33 questions. Maximum scores were 10 points. Spearman and Pearson correlation coefficients and statistical tests consisting of chi-square, t-test, Mann-Whitney U, one-way ANOVA, and Kruskal-Wallis H were used in the analysis.

Results

The mean overall score of people in principles of digital professionalism was 0.8. Women and basic sciences faculties had a significantly better status than men and clinical faculties in the principles of digital professionalism as a whole (P = 0.001 and P = 0.049, respectively). The domain of "knowledge management and information literacy" had significantly lower scores in professors in comparison with other degree (instructors, assistant professors, and associate professors (P = 0.039).

Conclusion

The mean score of the principles of digital professionalism is acceptable at 80%. Coherent, timely, and up-to-date training to ensure the effective, safe and appropriate use of digital technology, especially for men, professors and clinical faculty members who had a lower score than others, should be done.

Selecting the Best Gastric Anatomical Place for Biopsy to Detect Helicobacter Pylori in Iranian Morbid Obese Patients

Background

Obesity and Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection are public health problems in the world and Iran. This study aimed to indicate the anatomical place with the most accurate results for H. pylori. According to gastric mapping, this study will be able to evaluate the prevalence of H. pylori based on the pathology of gastric mapping and the accuracy of the antral rapid urease test (RUT) based on endoscopic findings.

Methods

In this cross-sectional study, upper digestive endoscopy and gastric pathology were studied in 196 obese patients candidates for bariatric surgery. Statistical analyses were performed using a t-test and Chi-square/fisher's exact test to compare the groups. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), and odds ratio (OR) were used to compare RUT and pathological H. pylori test of each of the six areas of the stomach. We set a positive test of the pathology of 6 regions of the stomach as our gold standard (in this study).

Results

The most common area of the stomach for pathological findings of H. pylori were incisura (116, 59.2%), greater curvature of the antrum (115, 58.3%), lesser curvature of the antrum (113, 57.7%), lesser curvature of the corpus (112, 57.1%), greater curvature of the corpus (111, 56.6%) and cardia (103, 52.6%). The prevalence of H. pylori was 58.2% (114 cases) and 61.2% (120 cases) with RUT and gastric pathology, respectively. Mild, moderate, and severe infection of H. pylori in cardia (58, 29.6%), greater and lesser curvature of the antrum (61, 31.1%), and greater curvature of the antrum (37, 18.9%) had the highest percentages of incidence comparing to other sites of the stomach, respectively. The most sensitive area for pathologic biopsy was incisura (96.6%, 95% confidence interval: 91.7, 98.7).

Conclusion

According to the highest sensitivity, PLR, NPV, and pathological findings of H. pylori in accordance with the lowest NLR in the incisura compared with other parts of the stomach, it is highly recommended to take the biopsy from the incisura instead of other anatomical places of stomach for detecting H. pylori specifically if our strategy is taking only one biopsy.

Temporal patterns of cancer burden in Asia, 1990-2019: a systematic examination for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

Background

Cancers represent a challenging public health threat in Asia. This study examines the temporal patterns of incidence, mortality, disability and risk factors of 29 cancers in Asia in the last three decades.

Methods

The age, sex and year-wise estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of 29 cancers for 49 Asian countries from 1990 through 2019 were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors 2019 study. Besides incidence, mortality and DALYs, we also examined the cancer burden measured in terms of DALYs and deaths attributable to risk factors, which had evidence of causation with different cancers. The development status of countries was measured using the socio-demographic index. Decomposition analysis was performed to gauge the change in cancer incidence between 1990 and 2019 due to population growth, aging and age-specific incidence rates.

Findings

All cancers combined claimed an estimated 5.6 million [95% uncertainty interval, 5.1-6.0 million] lives in Asia with 9.4 million [8.6-10.2 million] incident cases and 144.7 million [132.7-156.5 million] DALYs in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of all cancers combined in Asia was 197.6/100,000 [181.0-214.4] in 2019, varying from 99.2/100,000 [76.1-126.0] in Bangladesh to 330.5/100,000 [298.5-365.8] in Cyprus. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was 120.6/100,000 [110.1-130.7] in 2019, varying 4-folds across countries from 71.0/100,000 [59.9-83.5] in Kuwait to 284.2/100,000 [229.2-352.3] in Mongolia. The age-standardized DALYs rate was 2970.5/100,000 [2722.6-3206.5] in 2019, varying from 1578.0/100,000 [1341.2-1847.0] in Kuwait to 6574.4/100,000 [5141.7-8333.0] in Mongolia. Between 1990 and 2019, deaths due to 17 of the 29 cancers either doubled or more, and 20 of the 29 cancers underwent an increase of 150% or more in terms of new cases. Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (both sexes), breast cancer (among females), colon and rectum cancer (both sexes), stomach cancer (both sexes) and prostate cancer (among males) were among top-5 cancers in most Asian countries in terms of ASIR and ASMR in 2019 and cancers of liver, stomach, hodgkin lymphoma and esophageal cancer posted the most significant decreases in age-standardized rates between 1990 and 2019. Among the modifiable risk factors, smoking, alcohol use, ambient particulate matter (PM) pollution and unsafe sex remained the dominant risk factors between 1990 and 2019. Cancer DALYs due to ambient PM pollution, high body mass index and fasting plasma glucose has increased most notably between 1990 and 2019.

Interpretation

With growing incidence, cancer has become more significant public health threat in Asia, demanding urgent policy attention and guidance. Its heightened risk calls for increased cancer awareness, preventive measures, affordable early-stage detection, and cost-effective therapeutics in Asia. The current study can serve as a useful resource for policymakers and researchers in Asia for devising interventions for cancer management and control.

Funding

The GBD study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Maternal and fetal/neonatal outcomes in pregnancy, delivery and postpartum following bariatric surgery and comparison with pregnant women with obesity: a study protocol for a prospective cohort

BACKGROUND

Being obese can lead to various complications during pregnancy, such as Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM), pregnancy induced hypertension (PIH), Pre-Eclampsia (PE), and Large Gestational Age (LGA). Although bariatric surgery is an effective way to treat obesity, it can also result in complications and may be linked to having small for gestational age (SGA) babies. This cohort study protocol aims to compare the maternal and fetal/neonatal outcomes of two groups of Iranian pregnant women: those who have undergone bariatric surgery and those who are obese but have not had bariatric surgery.

METHODS

In this study Pregnant women (< 14 weeks' gestation) (n = 38 per group) are recruited either from one of the obesity clinic (exposure group = with a history of bariatric surgery) or primary healthcare clinics in Tehran city (comparison group = pregnant women with obesity and and no history of bariatric surgery). Dietary intake and nutrient status are assessed at < 14, 28, and 36 weeks. Maternal and fetal/neonatal outcomes are compared between the two groups, including gestational diabetes, preeclampsia, preterm labor, intrauterine growth restriction, severe nausea and vomiting, abortion, placenta previa and abruption, venous thrombosis, vaginal bleeding, cesarean delivery, meconium aspiration, and respiratory distress. Maternal serum levels of ferritin, albumin, zinc, calcium, magnesium, selenium, copper, vitamins A, B9, B12, and 25-hydroxy Vit D are checked during 24th to 28th weeks. Maternal and neonatal outcomes, including height, weight, head circumference, fetal abnormality, infection, small or large fetus, low birth weight, macrosomia, NICU admission, and total weight gain during pregnancy, are measured at birth. Maternal and offspring outcomes, including weight, height, head circumference, total weight gain during pregnancy, newborn diseases, postpartum bleeding, breastfeeding, and related problems, are assessed 6 weeks after delivery. Child's weight, height, and head circumference are followed at 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, and 12 months after birth. Maternal stress, anxiety, and depression are assessed with the DASS-21 questionnaire, and physical activity is evaluated using the PPAQ questionnaire in the first and third trimesters.

DISCUSSION

By assessing the levels of micronutrients in the blood of pregnant women along with the evaluation of pregnancy outcomes, it is feasible to gain a more accurate understanding of how bariatric surgery affects the health and potential complications for both the mother and the fetus/newborn. This information can help specialists and patients make more informed decisions about the surgery. Additionally, by examining issues such as stress, anxiety, and depression in women undergoing surgery, this study can contribute to recognizing these problems, which can also affect pregnancy outcomes.

Variation of Acromiocoracoid and Acromioglenoid Distance in Bangladeshi People

This cross-sectional descriptive purposive study was done on 150 (70 right and 80 left) fully ossified dry human scapulae of Bangladeshi people to find out the variation in length of acromiocoracoid and acromioglenoid distance. Sample collection was carried out in the Department of Anatomy, Mymensingh Medical College, Bangladesh from January to December 2019. Any kind of damaged or broken scapulae were excluded to maintain standard measurement. Length of these distances was measured with the help of digital Vernier slide calipers. The mean±SD acromiocoracoid distance were 35.8±4.64 mm and 36.32±5.55 mm on right and left sided scapulae respectively and the mean±SD acromioglenoid distance were 27.69±3.43 mm on right sided scapulae and 28.18±3.26 mm on left sided scapulae. These data are important to compare Bangladeshi scapulae to those from various other races that could contribute to demographic studies of shoulder disease probability and management in Bangladeshi population.

A systematic review and meta-analysis on GERD after OAGB: rate, treatments, and success

INTRODUCTION

This review aims to investigate the gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) as one of the important concerns for both surgeons and patients after one anastomosis gastric bypass (OAGB).

METHOD

PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane were reviewed by the end of the 2021 with keywords relating to GERD, OAGB, and their equivalents. Data regarding OAGB, number of patients with GERD, treatment for GERD, endoscopy findings, the interval between GERD and OAGB were retrieved by two independent investigators. The primary effect/effect size measure was prevalence.

RESULTS

40 studies examining 17,299 patients were included revealing that 2% of patients experience GERD following OAGB. Reflux after revisional OAGB is six times higher than primary OAGB. Despite being unclear, medical and surgical treatments for GERD after OAGB were used in 60% and 41% of patients with estimated success rate of 85% and 100%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Based on how GERD was identified after OAGB, its rate ranged from 0 to 55%; the pooled rate of 2% is near to Roux-en-Y gastric bypass. GERD symptoms can be mild to be tolerated without medical treatment, moderate that respond to acid-reducing agents, or severe enough that are categorized as interactable and would need a surgical intervention.

Weight Reduction Percentile Charts: 2-Year Follow-up Results of OAGB and RYGB Post Bariatric Surgery

PURPOSE

Using a single percentile chart provides us with high standards for the evaluation and accurate investigation of sufficient weight loss after bariatric surgery, counseling, and treating patients in an evidence-based way. Creating percentile charts of weight loss for gastric bypass is the aim of this study.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study was based on data from patients who underwent RYGB or OAGB from February 2008 to February 2020. The lambda-mu-sigma (LMS) method was used to estimate the reduction in body mass index (BMI) and six other metrics measured throughout post-operative follow-up. Percentile charts for various metrics have been presented for the first 2 years' post-surgery. We applied a bootstrap sampling method to evaluate percentile validity.

RESULTS

We recruited 2579 and 1943 patients who underwent OAGB (75% female) and RYGB (84% female) and were between the ages of 18 and 70 years. The preoperative BMI of patients in the OAGB group was higher than in the RYGB group. Concerning RYGB weight reduction results, the maximum percentage of excess weight loss (%EWL) occurs 18 months after surgery and is steady at 24 months. Far above 50%, EWL is achieved after 6 months. OAGB weight loss follows the same trend as RYGB; at 6 months, the %EWL values are slightly higher than RYGB.

CONCLUSIONS

We present the first bariatric weight loss percentile chart for OAGB. It allows evaluation of sufficient and insufficient weight loss at any post-operative point in a visual aspect. Furthermore, it predicts prospective outcomes and guides patient monitoring.

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

Findings

In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.

Interpretation

The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

Funding

The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

Bariatric Surgeries, from Weight Loss to Weight Regain: A Retrospective Five-Years Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Bariatric surgery may lead to unsatisfactory weight loss, weight loss plateau, and even weight regain after various types of surgery. Despite the numerous studies, the mid-term results of surgery, after repetitive weight fluctuations remain a major concern. The aim of the present study was to determine the key time points of weight changes after three types of bariatric procedures, as well as to determine 5-year weight loss outcome after surgery.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study including patients with morbid obesity conducted in the Minimally Invasive Surgery Research Center. The patients underwent one of the three types of bariatric surgeries including laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG), Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), and one-anastomosis gastric bypass (OAGB), who had been followed up for weight loss trend during 5 years postoperatively.

RESULTS

The mean excessive weight loss (%EWL) and total weight loss (%TWL) of 2,567 participants with obesity (mean age = 39.03, mean BMI = 45.67) in the first 6 months after surgery was independent of the type of surgery (p > 0.05). OAGB and RYGB showed significantly higher weight loss compared to LSG in ninth and 24th month after surgery, respectively (p < 0.05). The 5 years %WL could be comparable with %WL in 6, 9, and 12 months after LSG, RYGB, and OAGB, respectively.

CONCLUSION

OAGB provides the fastest and highest %EWL and %TWL, while LSG induced the earliest and largest weight plateau and weight regain during 5-years post-surgery. The pattern of early weight loss could predict the mid-term outcome of bariatric surgery. So, early identification of suboptimal weight loss could enhance long-term weight loss.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Serum cystatin C and inflammatory factors related to COVID-19 consequences

BACKGROUND

Besides impaired respiratory function and immune system, COVID-19 can affect renal function from elevated blood urea nitrogen (BUN) or serum creatinine (sCr) levels to acute kidney injury (AKI) and renal failure. This study aims to investigate the relationship between Cystatin C and other inflammatory factors with the consequences of COVID-19.

METHODS

A total of 125 patients with confirmed Covid-19 pneumonia were recruited in this cross-sectional study from March 2021 to May 2022 at Firoozgar educational hospital in Tehran, Iran. Lymphopenia was an absolute lymphocyte count of less than 1.5 × 109/L. AKI was identified as elevated serum Cr concentration or reduced urine output. Pulmonary consequences were evaluated. Mortality was recorded in the hospital one and three months after discharge. The effect of baseline biochemical and inflammatory factors on odds of death was examined. SPSS, version 26, was used for all analyses. P-vale less than 0.05 was considered significant.

RESULTS

The highest amount of co-morbidities was attributed to COPD (31%; n = 39), dyslipidemia and hypertension (27%; n = 34 for each) and diabetes (25%; n = 31). The mean baseline cystatin C level was 1.42 ± 0.93 mg/L, baseline creatinine was 1.38 ± 0.86 mg/L, and baseline NLR was 6.17 ± 4.50. Baseline cystatin C level had a direct and highly significant linear relationship with baseline creatinine level of patients (P < 0.001; r: 0.926). ). The average score of the severity of lung involvement was 31.42 ± 10.80. There is a direct and highly significant linear relationship between baseline cystatin C level and lung involvement severity score (r = 0.890, P < 0.001). Cystatin C has a higher diagnostic power in predicting the severity of lung involvement (B = 3.88 ± 1.74, p = 0.026). The mean baseline cystatin C level in patients with AKI was 2.41 ± 1.43 mg/L and significantly higher than patients without AKI (P > 0.001). 34.4% (n = 43) of patients expired in the hospital, and the mean baseline cystatin C level of this group of patients was 1.58 ± 0.90 mg/L which was significantly higher than other patients (1.35 ± 0.94 mg/L, P = 0.002).

CONCLUSION

cystatin C and other inflammatory factors such as ferritin, LDH and CRP can help the physician predict the consequences of COVID-19. Timely diagnosis of these factors can help reduce the complications of COVID-19 and better treat this disease. More studies on the consequences of COVID-19 and knowing the related factors will help treat the disease as well as possible.

Cystic duct entering to right hepatic duct; a case report with literature review

INTRODUCTION AND IMPORTANCE

Surgeons may mistakenly consider the right hepatic duct as cystic duct, ligate, and divide it.

CASE PRESENTATION

A 58-year-old woman presented with right upper quadrant (RUQ) abdominal pain, nausea, and RUQ tenderness, but negative Murphy's sign. Common bile duct was 10 mm based on abdominal ultrasound. Common hepatic duct and intrahepatic ducts consist of multiple common bile duct (CBD) stones with sludge and multiple small gallstones. Different diagnostic procedures (Computed tomography (CT) scan, magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP), and endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP)) showed the connection of the cystic duct to the right hepatic duct. Balloon sweeping for stones extraction and then laparoscopic cholecystectomy was successfully done.

CLINICAL DISCUSSION

Radiologic evaluations like MRCP, CT scan, ERCP or sonography before or during the surgery/endoscopic interventions seem logical at least for selected patients.

CONCLUSION

Before endoscopic/surgical interventions we need to be sure about the anatomy of biliary tree by a suitable para-clinic evaluation.

The effect of a standardized capsule of Aloe vera gel on the quality of life in patients with systolic heart failure: A randomized double-blind placebo-controlled clinical trial

This trial was designed to evaluate the effect of a standardized capsule of Aloe vera gel (AVG) on the quality of life (QOL) in patients with systolic heart failure (HF). Forty-two patients were randomly divided into two groups to receive either AVG 150 mg or harmonized placebo capsules twice a day for 8 weeks. The patients were evaluated before and after the intervention using the Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire (MLHFQ), New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class, six-minute walk test (6MWT), Insomnia Severity Index (ISI), Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) and STOP-BANG questionnaires. Post-intervention, AVG group indicated a significant reduction in the total score of MLHFQ (p < 0.001). The changes in MLHFQ and NYHA class were statistically significant after taking medication (p < 0.001 and p = 0.004, respectively). The change of 6MWT in the AVG group was more advanced; however, it was not statistically significant (p = 0.353). Moreover, in the AVG group, the severity of insomnia and obstructive sleep apnea decreased (p < 0.001, p = 0.01 respectively) and the sleep quality improved as well (p < 0.001). There were significantly fewer adverse events reported in the AVG group (p = 0.047). Therefore, AVG combined with standard medical therapy could provide more clinical benefits for patients with systolic HF.

Evaluation of the quality of clinical guidelines for prophylaxis of venous thromboembolism in urological surgeries by the AGREE II review instrument

Background and Aims

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is the most common cause of death during the first 30 days after surgery. There is not any study which critically evaluated clinical guidelines related to VTE prophylaxis in urological surgeries. Therefore, in this study, we decided to evaluate related clinical guidelines using the AGREE II instrument to take a positive step towards improving the care of these patients.

Methods

The latest version of all available clinical guidelines related to the topic of VTE prophylaxis in urological surgeries until 2021 was searched. Four appraisers, including one urologist, one cardiologist, one epidemiologist, and one MD who had prior knowledge of working with the AGREE II tool and international articles in this field appraised selected clinical guidelines. Using the AGREE II review tool, clinical guidelines were critically evaluated. Then, the score of six domains of AGREE II for each guideline was calculated and compared with each other, and the relationship between the domains was measured by Kendall's correlation test. To determine the reliability of the test, interclass correlation coefficients were calculated for all indicators.

Results

Items were rated on a 7-point scale from 1 (strongly disagree) to 7 (strongly agree). NICE, CHEST, and EAU guidelines obtained the highest scores from the Overall Assessment criteria by scoring 6, 5.75, and 5.25, respectively. There was only a correlation between the score of Overall Assessment criterion with "Applicability" domain, with Kendall's correlation coefficient of 0.867 and p = 0.015. The domains of "Clarity and presentation" and "Scope and purpose" obtained the highest standardized scores by getting 84.49% and 75.69%, respectively, and "Applicability" with 30.04% obtained the lowest standardized score.

Conclusion

In this study, NICE, CHEST, and EAU guidelines are suggested as clinical guidelines by obtaining the highest scores from Overall Assessment criterion.

A Representative Percentile Chart for Prediction of Weight Loss Trend after Sleeve Gastrectomy

INTRODUCTION

It could be valuable for surgeons and patients to use one chart in different groups and evaluate weight loss during the post-surgery period.

METHODS

This retrospective study used the Iran National Obesity Surgery Database. Patients with clinically severe obesity aged 18-70 undergoing sleeve gastrectomy participated in this study. Body mass index (BMI) reduction and 5 other metrics measured over the study period were modeled using lambda-mu-sigma method. Our data were split into the train (70%) and test (30%) sets.

RESULTS

In this study, 1,258 patients (75% female) met the eligibility criteria to participate. Mean age and initial BMI were 36.87 ± 10.51 and 42.74 (40.37-46.36), respectively. Percentile charts for various metrics have been presented for the first 2 years after surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

For sleeve surgery, all metrics are acceptable for clinical applications. Using the statistical view, BMI reduction is the most acceptable metric according to the lowest bias values and its variation between all the metrics.

Breast cancer risk factors in Iranian women: a systematic review and meta-analysis of matched case-control studies

BACKGROUND

Identifying breast cancer risk factors is a critical component of preventative strategies for this disease. This study aims to identify modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors of breast cancer in Iranian women.

METHODS

We used international databases (PubMed/Medline, Scopus, Web of Knowledge, and Embase) and national databases (SID, Magiran, and ISC) to retrieve relevant studies until November 13, 2022. The odds ratio (OR) with a 95% confidence interval using the random-effect model was used to estimate the pooled effect. The publication bias was assessed by the Egger and Begg test. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of each included study on the final measurement.

RESULTS

Of the 30,351 retrieved articles, 24 matched case-control records were included with 12,460 participants (5675 newly diagnosed cases of breast cancer and 6785 control). This meta-analysis showed that of the known modifiable risk factors for breast cancer, obesity (vs normal weight) had the highest risk (OR = 2.17, 95% CI 1.47 to 3.21; I² = 85.7) followed by age at marriage (25-29 vs < 18 years old) (OR = 2.00, 95% CI 1.53 to 2.61; I² = 0), second-hand smoking (OR = 1.86, 95% CI 1.58 to 2.19; I² = 0), smoking (OR = 1.83, 95% CI 1.41 to 2.38; I² = 18.9), abortion history (OR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.05; I² = 66.3), oral contraceptive use (OR = 1.35, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.63; I² = 74.1), age at marriage (18-24 vs < 18 years old) (OR: 1.22, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.47; I² = 0). Of non-modifiable risk factors, history of radiation exposure (OR = 3.48, 95% CI 2.17 to 5.59; I² = 0), family history of breast cancer (OR = 2.47, 95% CI 1.83 to 3.33; I² = 73), and age at menarche (12-13 vs ≥ 14 years old) (OR = 1.67, 95% CI 1.31-2.13; I² = 25.4) significantly increased the risk of breast cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Since most risk factors related to breast cancer incidence are modifiable, promoting healthy lifestyles can play an influential role in preventing breast cancer. In women with younger menarche age, a family history of breast cancer, or a history of radiation exposure, screening at short intervals is recommended.

Willingness to Pay for Down Syndrome Screening: A systematics Review

Background:Financial ability to pay has a unique role in the accessibility of health care services, which indicates the necessity of raising enough funds by governments. However, how much households are willing to pay (WTP) for receiving a particular service? And what factors influence their WTP? The current systematic review aimed to, firstly, review studies on the WTP for Down syndrome (DS) screening, and, secondly, to identify factors that affect WTP for DS screening. Methods:We systematically searched the Scopus, PubMed, Web of Sciences (ISI), and Embase databases to identify relevant studies from their inception to June 2020; the search strategy was updated on December 2021. Initially, 157 articles were identified, and 5 were found eligible for full-text review. In event of any disagreement, a third reviewer was used. Extracted WTPs were converted to US dollars in 2018 using exchange rate parity and the present value formula to make a comparison. The quality assessment of the selected studies was done using the "Lancsar and Louvier" and Smith checklist; also, vote counting was used to assess the influence of factors. Results:Five eligible studies, published from 2005 to 2020, were fully reviewed. All final studies were scored as good quality. The extracted WTPs varied from $169 to $1118 in UK and Canada, respectively. Income and information/knowledge about screening tests were the most frequently investigated factors. Education level, detection rate, women's age, cost, and family history were significantly associated with higher levels of WTP for DS screening. Conclusion:This study demonstrated a significant gap in WTP for DS screening in various countries. Women are WTP higher costs for tests with higher screenings. Also, a unique role was identified for income, occupation, information, and family history of DS in WTP for DS screening. In addition, a positive association was found for the variable of age.

Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9-21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9-24·7), working (17·2, 15·2-19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2-17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6-33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4-84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4-89·0), working (33·8-82·8), and post-working (30·4-79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries.

INTERPRETATION

Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effect of silymarin on liver size and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in morbidly obese patients: A randomized double-blind clinical trial

BACKGROUND

A large liver size is a factor that may increase the difficulty of bariatric surgery (BS) and unwanted complications. Some agents have been used to decrease the liver size before BS. Silymarin has been used as an antioxidant agent to improve liver function tests. This study was designed to evaluate the effects of silymarin on liver dimensions, function, and lipid profile.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A double-blind randomized clinical trial was performed on 56 patients. The patients were divided into silymarin and placebo groups. Blood samples and sonographic examinations were taken from the patients before and 4 weeks after the administration of the silymarin or placebo. In the first group, 140 mg silymarin was prescribed every 8 h for 4 weeks, and the other group received placebo in the same way with the same tablet shape. After the completion of the 4-week treatment, laboratory tests and ultrasonography were carried out again.

RESULTS

Thirty-nine (69.6%) patients were female with a mean body mass index (BMI) of 46.2 kg/m² and a mean age of 36.8 years. Most of the patients had a compliance of 80% and higher. The analysis did not show any significant difference in aspartate transaminase, alkaline transaminase, liver size, cholesterol, and triglyceride changes among the silymarin and placebo groups. BMI loss was slightly higher in the silymarin group although the difference was not statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

The present findings show that silymarin administration for 4 weeks does not affect liver size and function, but further evaluations should be carried out on the subject.

Type 2 diabetes remission after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), sleeve gastrectomy (SG), and one anastomosis gastric bypass (OAGB): results of the longitudinal assessment of bariatric surgery study

BACKGROUND

Several studies on various bariatric surgeries involving patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) showed an overall rate of remission of hyperglycemia. However, there is little known about predictive factors on remission after different types of surgeries. The aim of this study was to identify the T2DM remission rate and to determine the effects of preoperative factors characteristics of remission of type 2 diabetes in Iran.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of 1351 patients with T2DM operated by three different types of surgeries (Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), sleeve gastrectomy (SG), and One Anastomosis Gastric Bypass (OAGB)). Diabetes remission was defined according to the American Diabetes Association (ADA) criteria. Binary logistic regression analyses were employed.

RESULTS

A total of 1351 patients, 675 patients (50.0%) undergoing OAGB, 475 (35.2%) RYGB, and 201 (14.9%) SG. 80.6%, 84.2% of OAGB, 81.7%, 82.6% of RYGB, and 77.1%, 81.5% of SG participants were in T2DM remission after 1 and 3 years, respectively. 1- and 3-year remission were associated with preoperative age, duration of T2DM, FBS and HbA1c, BMI, insulin therapy, and a family history of obesity (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The remission of T2DM after RYGB, SG, and OAGB surgery is dependent on various preoperative factors. Patients with younger age, shorter duration of T2DM, lower preoperative HbA1c and FBS, higher BMI, who were not on insulin therapy, and not having a family history of obesity were the best candidates to achieve a prolonged diabetes remission.

Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-18: a geospatial modelling study

BACKGROUND

More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels.

METHODS

We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution.

FINDINGS

Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000-257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution.

INTERPRETATION

Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Medication Adherence, Attitude Towards Medication, and Quality of Life in Outpatients With Neurotic Disorders in Tehran, Iran: A Six-Month Follow-up Study

Objectives This study aims to investigate the attitude towards medication, medication adherence, and quality of life (QoL) in outpatients with neurotic disorders referred for the first time to the psychiatric clinic of Tehran Psychiatric Institute in Iran. Methods In this study, participants were adult outpatients with neurotic disorders referred to the psychiatric clinic of Tehran Psychiatric Institute for the first time, who had met the inclusion criteria (age 18-60 years, having a neurotic disorder diagnosed by the psychiatrist, and consent to participate in the study). At baseline and in one and six months after the first visit, they completed a demographic form, the World Health Organization Quality of Life-BREF (WHOQOL-BREF) and the drug attitude inventory (DAI-10). Their medication adherence was assessed using the medication possession ratio. Results Of 100 participants, 76 were females and had a mean age of 35.9 years. Favorable medication adherence significantly increased in the sixth month compared to the first month, and the number of patients with favorable medication adherence increased from 38 to 63. In comparing the overall score of QoL, a significant improvement was observed in the 1st and 6th months compared to baseline and in the sixth month compared to the first month (P<0.001). Regarding the domains of the QoL, mental health and general health in the first and sixth months were significantly increased compared to the baseline (P<0.001). Physical health domain was significantly increased in the sixth month compared to the first month (P<0.001). Social relationships domain was significantly increased in the first month compared to the baseline (P= 0.001). Environmental health domain was significantly increased in the first month compared to the baseline (P=0.019). Comparison of the QoL score between patients with favorable and unfavorable medication adherence showed no significant difference (P=0.6). Attitude towards medication was significantly improved from baseline to the sixth month (P<0.001). Conclusion The QoL and its some domains as well as medication adherence and attitude towards medication in outpatients with neurotic disorders seem to be improved after six months of follow-up. There is no significant difference in QoL between outpatients with favorable and unfavorable medication adherence.

Association of Hypercholesterolemia With Gastric Intestinal Metaplasia, Findings After Sleeve Gastrectomy Pathology Review

BACKGROUND

We evaluated the relationship between comorbidities associated with obesity, body mass index (BMI), and development of intestinal metaplasia (IM) after vertical sleeve gastrectomy (VSG).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All VSG specimens performed at an academic center between 2011 and 2018 were reviewed. All specimens underwent histopathologic assessment, while those with findings suspicious for IM underwent additional immunohistochemical work up. Baseline patient characteristics and demographic data were obtained from Iran National Obesity Surgery Database by retrospective review.

RESULTS

A total of 862 adult individuals underwent VSG during the study period and specimens were histopathologically examined. All patients had preoperative upper endoscopy. The most common histopathologic diagnosis was miscellaneous findings (57.8%) followed by no pathologic finding (36.7%). The minority of patients (5.5%) had IM. Although 40.5% of patients had positive Helicobacter pylori infection preoperatively, just 13.8% had still positive infection postoperatively. A significant association was found between IM and hypercholesterolemia (odds ratio: 1.95; 95% confidence interval: 1.1, 3.5).

CONCLUSION

This study found a correlation between histopathologic changes in patients with IM and hypercholesterolemia. Prospective research studies are recommended to further examine this correlation.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the placebo effect in panic disorder: Implications for research and clinical practice

OBJECTIVE

This review aimed to measure the degree of placebo response in panic disorder.

DATA SOURCES

We searched major databases up to 31 January 2021, for randomized pharmacotherapy trials published in English.

STUDY SELECTION

A total of 43 studies met inclusion criteria to be in the analysis (with 174 separate outcome measurements).

DATA EXTRACTION

Changes in outcome measures from baseline in the placebo group were used to estimate modified Cohen's d effect size.

RESULTS

A total of 43 trials (2392 subjects, 174 outcomes using 27 rating scales) were included in the meta-analysis. Overall placebo effect size was 0.57 (95% confidence interval = [0.50, 0.64]), heterogeneity (I²: 96.3%). Higher placebo effect size was observed among clinician-rated scales compared to patient reports (0.75 vs 0.35) and among general symptom and anxiety scales compared to panic symptoms and depression scales (0.92 and 0.64 vs 0.56 and 0.54, respectively). There was an upward trend in effect size over the publication period (r = 0.02, p = 0.002) that was only significant among clinician-rated scales (r = 0.02, p = 0.011). There was no significant publication bias, Egger's test (p = 0.08).

CONCLUSION

We observed a substantial placebo effect size in panic disorder. This effect was more prominent for some aspects of panic disorder psychopathology than for others and was correlated with the source of the assessment and publication year. This finding has implications both for research design, to address the heterogeneity and diversity in placebo responses, and for clinical practice to ensure optimal quality of care.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION NUMBER

PROSPERO, CRD42019125979.

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.

METHODS

The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Excessive weight loss after bariatric surgery: a prediction model retrospective cohort study

Bariatric surgery has been recognized as the most effective long-term treatment for morbid obesity. Despite the considerable positive results, adverse consequence can develop. Excessive Weight Loss (EXWL), a rare consequence of bariatric surgery, can lead to a broad adverse consequence. The aim of this study was determining of prevalence and the predicting model of EXWL in patient underwent bariatric surgery until 24 months after surgery. Data have been extracted from the National Obesity Surgery Database in obesity clinic of Iran University of Medical Sciences. The subjects of this retrospective cohort study were morbid obese individuals who underwent three various types of bariatric surgery [One Anastomosis Gastric Bypass (OAGB), Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass (RYGB), or Sleeve Gastrectomy (SG)] in period of 24 months ago. EXWL has been defined as reaching to less than or equal to BMI 18.5 at any time until 24 months after surgery. SPSS was used in data analysis. Among 4214 subjects of this study, most excess weight loss after surgery has taken place in 18 months after surgery. 11.4% (n = 495) of patients experienced EXWL with highest percentage among OAGB patients (15.1%) at time of 24 months after surgery. The females (20.4% vs.9.9%) and younger persons (35.45 ± 10.25 vs. 39.06 ± 10.76) were more susceptible to EXWL. Patients with EXWL had significantly lower BMI (body mass index) (41.11 ± 4.51 vs. 46.73 ± 6.26) (Kg/m²), and were less probable to had emotional eating. Visceral fat level, fat percentage, and BMI were the best predictor of EXWL (P value for all < 0.05). So that per level increase in visceral fat, decreases the probability of EXWL as 47% and 61% in SG and OAGB. Moreover, each unit lower BMI leads to 25% higher susceptibility to experience EXWL. Surgery should be adjusted in younger females with a lower BMI and healthy metabolic status who are more prone to EXWL. In such a way that minimize weight loss speed/value. It may be possible by selection of other surgery procedures, rather than OAGB, tighter follow-ups, and consultations of patients after surgery is emphasized for more EXWL vulnerable patients.

Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Given the recent increasing trends in colorectal cancer incidence globally, up-to-date information on the colorectal cancer burden could guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, and help effectively allocate resources. We examined the temporal patterns of the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in 204 countries and territories across the past three decades.

METHODS

Estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for colorectal cancer were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 by age, sex, and geographical location for the period 1990-2019. Mortality estimates were produced using the cause of death ensemble model. We also calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer.

FINDINGS

Globally, between 1990 and 2019, colorectal cancer incident cases more than doubled, from 842 098 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 810 408-868 574) to 2·17 million (2·00-2·34), and deaths increased from 518 126 (493 682-537 877) to 1·09 million (1·02-1·15). The global age-standardised incidence rate increased from 22·2 (95% UI 21·3-23·0) per 100 000 to 26·7 (24·6-28·9) per 100 000, whereas the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 14·3 (13·5-14·9) per 100 000 to 13·7 (12·6-14·5) per 100 000 and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 308·5 (294·7-320·7) per 100 000 to 295·5 (275·2-313·0) per 100 000 from 1990 through 2019. Taiwan (province of China; 62·0 [48·9-80·0] per 100 000), Monaco (60·7 [48·5-73·6] per 100 000), and Andorra (56·6 [42·8-71·9] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised incidence rates, while Greenland (31·4 [26·0-37·1] per 100 000), Brunei (30·3 [26·6-34·1] per 100 000), and Hungary (28·6 [23·6-34·0] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised mortality rates. From 1990 through 2019, a substantial rise in incidence rates was observed in younger adults (age <50 years), particularly in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries. Globally, a diet low in milk (15·6%), smoking (13·3%), a diet low in calcium (12·9%), and alcohol use (9·9%) were the main contributors to colorectal cancer DALYs in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

The increase in incidence rates in people younger than 50 years requires vigilance from researchers, clinicians, and policy makers and a possible reconsideration of screening guidelines. The fast-rising burden in low SDI and middle SDI countries in Asia and Africa calls for colorectal cancer prevention approaches, greater awareness, and cost-effective screening and therapeutic options in these regions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Deeply Virtual Compton Scattering Cross Section at High Bjorken x_{B}

We report high-precision measurements of the deeply virtual Compton scattering (DVCS) cross section at high values of the Bjorken variable x_{B}. DVCS is sensitive to the generalized parton distributions of the nucleon, which provide a three-dimensional description of its internal constituents. Using the exact analytic expression of the DVCS cross section for all possible polarization states of the initial and final electron and nucleon, and final state photon, we present the first experimental extraction of all four helicity-conserving Compton form factors (CFFs) of the nucleon as a function of x_{B}, while systematically including helicity flip amplitudes. In particular, the high accuracy of the present data demonstrates sensitivity to some very poorly known CFFs.

Risk of Bias in Iranian Randomized Trials Included in Cochrane Reviews

BACKGROUND

Among interventional studies, randomized controlled trials (RCTs) provide the highest level of evidence. However, RCTs can be susceptible to the risk of bias (RoB). Systematic reviews can be performed to appraise RoB in the included articles using evaluative tools. This study aimed to describe the main characteristics and focus on the RoB of RCTs conducted in Iran and included in Cochrane Reviews (CRs).

METHODS

We searched "Iran" by selecting the "Search All Text" and "Review" fields in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews within Ovid. CRs that included the RCTs conducted in Iran were retrieved. A trial was selected only if it was included in CRs, described as a controlled clinical trial, involved human subjects and CR authors assessed its RoB. The trials were characterized by investigating the relevant articles and the table "Characteristics of included studies" in each CR. The RoB was investigated by collecting the review authors' judgments based on RoB assessment tables in the CRs.

RESULTS

Out of 1166 Iranian RCTs included by 571 CRs, low RoB was found in 44.9% for random sequence generation, 20.8% for allocation concealment, 32.3% for blinding of participants/personnel, 36.5% for blinding of outcome assessors, 56.3% for incomplete outcome data, 41.3% for selective outcome reporting and 53.8% for other sources of bias.

CONCLUSION

The RoB in Iranian RCTs was found to be mostly high or unclear. While this is similar to the global situation, it is recommended that the methodological quality of conducting and reporting RCTs be addressed in Iran.

Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets.

Methods

The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B.

Findings

In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [–5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [–5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000.

Interpretation

The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Age Related Changes in the Purkinje Cells in Human Cerebellar Cortex in Bangladeshi People

This study was done to see the changes in the number of Purkinje cells per square mm in different age groups of Bangladeshi people. This cross-sectional descriptive type of study was done on total 40 postmortem human cerebellums, in the Department of Anatomy, Mymensingh Medical College, Bangladesh from July 2016 to June 2017. The specimens were collected from morgue in the department of Forensic Medicine, Mymensingh Medical College, by purposive sampling technique. All the specimens were grouped into four categories: Group A (20 to 29 years), Group B (30 to 39 years), Group C (40 to 49 years) and Group D (50 to 59 years). Paraffin blocks of cerebellum were cut at 4-5μm thickness and stained with routine "Haematoxylin and Eosin" (H & E) stain. Estimation of number of Purkinje cell was done by using the counting circle and examined under the light microscope. In the present study, the mean±SD number of Purkinje cell was found 128.67±25.15 per sq mm in Group A, 136.53±34.45 in Group B per sq mm, 135.55±29.44 per sq mm in Group C, 127.69±35.31 per sq mm in Group D.

Form Factors and Two-Photon Exchange in High-Energy Elastic Electron-Proton Scattering

We present new precision measurements of the elastic electron-proton scattering cross section for momentum transfer (Q^{2}) up to 15.75  (GeV/c)^{2}. Combined with existing data, these provide an improved extraction of the proton magnetic form factor at high Q^{2} and double the range over which a longitudinal or transverse separation of the cross section can be performed. The difference between our results and polarization data agrees with that observed at lower Q^{2} and attributed to hard two-photon exchange (TPE) effects, extending to 8  (GeV/c)^{2} the range of Q^{2} for which a discrepancy is established at >95% confidence. We use the discrepancy to quantify the size of TPE contributions needed to explain the cross section at high Q^{2}.

Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990-2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (-28·4 to -2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (-33·0 to -5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (-13·6% [-28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (-13·6% [-29·3 to 8·9]).

INTERPRETATION

Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

IMPORTANCE

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.

The Rate of Successful Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation in COVID-19 Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background: This study aims to provide information on the success rate of CPR in COVID-19 patients and some probable risk factors of mortality in these cases.

Methods: In this historical cohort design, the CPR success rate probable risk factors of 737 critically ill patients during the COVID-19 pandemic in 17 hospitals in the catchment area of Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran, was evaluated between Feb and Apr 2020. Data were extracted from a database that is a part of a national integrated care electronic health record system and analyzed with logistic and Cox regression models.

Results: COVID-19 cases were 341 (46.3%). The mean age in COVID-19 cases and non-COVID-19 patients were 70.0±14.6 and 63.0±19.3 years, respectively (P<0.001). The mortality was significantly higher in COVID-19 patients (99.1% vs. 74%, OR: 39.6, 95%CI: 12.4, 126.2). Cardiovascular diseases were the most frequent underlying disease (46.3% of COVID-19 cases and 35.1% of non-COVID-19 patients). Being a COVID-19 case (OR: 29.0, 95%CI: 8.9, 93.2), Intensive care unit admission (OR: 2.6, 95%CI: 1.5, 4.6) and age for each ten-year increase (OR: 1.2, 95%CI: 1.1, 1.4) were observed to be independent risk factors of mortality following CPR. The hazard ratio of being a COVID-19 patient was HR= 1.8 (95%CI: 1.5, 2.1).

Conclusion: Critically ill COVID-19 patients who undergo CPR have a decreased chance of survival in comparison to non-COVID-19 patients.