Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Incidence of thrombocytopenia-associated cerebral venous sinus thrombosis: a population-based study

Objectives

The identification of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia (VITT) followed the recognition of a hitherto uncommon clinical syndrome frequently associated with cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST), termed 'thrombosis with thrombocytopenia' syndrome (TTS). While anecdotally recognised as rare, the background incidence of TTS is unknown. We therefore aimed to investigate the background incidence of CVST with TTS in a large, well-defined population-based CVST cohort.

Methods

We performed an analysis of our previously obtained retrospective population-based cohort of patients with CVST from Adelaide, Australia (2005-2011, comprising an adult population of 953 390) to identify the background incidence of CVST associated with TTS.

Results

Among 105 people with CVST, the background population-based incidence of TTS-associated CVST was 1.2 per million per year (95% CI 0.5 to 2.4). A single case of a severe CVST VITT-like syndrome with multiorgan thrombosis was identified, occurring 3 weeks postrotavirus infection.

Conclusions

In our population-based study, the background incidence of CVST with associated TTS was very low, and the sole clinically severe case with multiorgan thrombosis occurred following a rotaviral precipitant. Our study establishes a benchmark against which to measure future potential 'TTS' clusters and suggests that viruses other than adenovirus may trigger this syndrome.

Risk factors for incident cardiovascular events and their population attributable fractions in rural India: The Rishi Valley Prospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

We prospectively determined incident cardiovascular events and their association with risk factors in rural India.

METHODS

We followed up with 7935 adults from the Rishi Valley Prospective Cohort Study to identify incident cardiovascular events. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, we estimated hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for associations between potential risk factors and cardiovascular events. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) for risk factors were estimated using R ('averisk' package).

RESULTS

Of the 4809 participants without prior cardiovascular disease, 57.7% were women and baseline mean age was 45.3 years. At follow-up (median of 4.9 years, 23,180 person-years [PYs]), 202 participants developed cardiovascular events, equating to an incidence of 8.7 cardiovascular events/1000 PYs. Incidence was greater in those with hypertension (hazard ratio [HR] [95% CI] 1.73 [1.21-2.49], adjusted PAF 18%), diabetes (1.96 [1.15-3.36], 4%) or central obesity (1.77 [1.23, 2.54], 9%) which together accounted for 31% of the PAF. Non-traditional risk factors such as night sleeping hours and number of children accounted for 16% of the PAF.

CONCLUSIONS

Both traditional and non-traditional cardiovascular risk factors are important contributors to incident cardiovascular events in rural India. Interventions targeted to these factors could assist in reducing the incidence of cardiovascular events.

Comparison of the performance of cardiovascular risk prediction tools in rural India: the Rishi Valley Prospective Cohort Study

AIMS

We compared the performance of cardiovascular risk prediction tools in rural India.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We applied the World Health Organization Risk Score (WHO-RS) tools, Australian Risk Score (ARS), and Global risk (Globorisk) prediction tools to participants aged 40-74 years, without prior cardiovascular disease, in the Rishi Valley Prospective Cohort Study, Andhra Pradesh, India. Cardiovascular events during the 5-year follow-up period were identified by verbal autopsy (fatal events) or self-report (non-fatal events). The predictive performance of each tool was assessed by discrimination and calibration. Sensitivity and specificity of each tool for identifying high-risk individuals were assessed using a risk score cut-off of 10% alone or this 10% cut-off plus clinical risk criteria of diabetes in those aged >60 years, high blood pressure, or high cholesterol. Among 2333 participants (10 731 person-years of follow-up), 102 participants developed a cardiovascular event. The 5-year observed risk was 4.4% (95% confidence interval: 3.6-5.3). The WHO-RS tools underestimated cardiovascular risk but the ARS overestimated risk, particularly in men. Both the laboratory-based (C-statistic: 0.68 and χ2: 26.5, P = 0.003) and non-laboratory-based (C-statistic: 0.69 and χ2: 20.29, P = 0.003) Globorisk tools showed relatively good discrimination and agreement. Addition of clinical criteria to a 10% risk score cut-off improved the diagnostic accuracy of all tools.

CONCLUSION

Cardiovascular risk prediction tools performed disparately in a setting of disadvantage in rural India, with the Globorisk performing best. Addition of clinical criteria to a 10% risk score cut-off aids assessment of risk of a cardiovascular event in rural India.

LAY SUMMARY

In a cohort of people without prior cardiovascular disease, tools used to predict the risk of cardiovascular events varied widely in their ability to accurately predict who would develop a cardiovascular event.The Globorisk, and to a lesser extent the ARS, tools could be appropriate for this setting in rural India.Adding clinical criteria, such as sustained high blood pressure, to a cut-off of 10% risk of a cardiovascular event within 5 years could improve identification of individuals who should be monitored closely and provided with appropriate preventive medications.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5-19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median).

FINDINGS

From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness.

INTERPRETATION

The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union.

Incidence of Stroke in Indigenous Populations of Countries With a Very High Human Development Index: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Cardiovascular disease contributes significantly to disease burden among many Indigenous populations. However, data on stroke incidence in Indigenous populations are sparse. We aimed to investigate what is known of stroke incidence in Indigenous populations of countries with a very high Human Development Index (HDI), locating the research in the broader context of Indigenous health.

METHODS

We identified population-based stroke incidence studies published between 1990 and 2022 among Indigenous adult populations of developed countries using PubMed, Embase, and Global Health databases, without language restriction. We excluded non-peer-reviewed sources, studies with fewer than 10 Indigenous people, or not covering a 35- to 64-year minimum age range. Two reviewers independently screened titles, abstracts, and full-text articles and extracted data. We assessed quality using "gold standard" criteria for population-based stroke incidence studies, the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for risk of bias, and CONSIDER criteria for reporting of Indigenous health research. An Indigenous Advisory Board provided oversight for the study.

RESULTS

From 13,041 publications screened, 24 studies (19 full-text articles, 5 abstracts) from 7 countries met the inclusion criteria. Age-standardized stroke incidence rate ratios were greater in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians (1.7-3.2), American Indians (1.2), Sámi of Sweden/Norway (1.08-2.14), and Singaporean Malay (1.7-1.9), compared with respective non-Indigenous populations. Studies had substantial heterogeneity in design and risk of bias. Attack rates, male-female rate ratios, and time trends are reported where available. Few investigators reported Indigenous stakeholder involvement, with few studies meeting any of the CONSIDER criteria for research among Indigenous populations.

DISCUSSION

In countries with a very high HDI, there are notable, albeit varying, disparities in stroke incidence between Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations, although there are gaps in data availability and quality. A greater understanding of stroke incidence is imperative for informing effective societal responses to socioeconomic and health disparities in these populations. Future studies into stroke incidence in Indigenous populations should be designed and conducted with Indigenous oversight and governance to facilitate improved outcomes and capacity building.

REGISTRATION INFORMATION

PROSPERO registration: CRD42021242367.

Determining the Optimal Methodology for Identifying Incident Stroke Deaths Using Administrative Datasets Within Australia

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Quantifying stroke incidence and mortality is crucial for disease surveillance and health system planning. Administrative data offer a cost-effective alternative to "gold standard" population-based studies. However, the optimal methodology for establishing stroke deaths from administrative data remains unclear. We aimed to determine the optimal method for identifying stroke-related deaths in administrative datasets as the fatal component of stroke incidence, comparing counts derived using underlying and all causes of death (CoD).

METHOD

Using whole-population multijurisdictional person-level linked data from hospital and death datasets from South Australia, the Northern Territory, and Western Australia, we identified first-ever stroke events between 2012 and 2015, using underlying CoD and all CoD to identify fatal stroke counts. We determined the 28-day case fatality for both counts and compared results with gold standard Australian population-based stroke incidence studies.

RESULTS

The total number of incident stroke events was 16,150 using underlying CoD and 18,074 using all CoD. Case fatality was 24.7% and 32.7% using underlying and all CoD, respectively. Case fatality using underlying CoD was similar to that observed in four Australian "gold standard" population-based studies (20%-24%).

CONCLUSIONS

Underlying CoD generates fatal incident stroke estimates more consistent with population-based studies than estimates based on stroke deaths identified from all-cause fields in death registers.

Age and sex disparities in cardiovascular risk factor management prior to stroke: Linked registry and general practice data

INTRODUCTION

There is limited evidence about the management of cardiovascular risk factors within 12 months before stroke/transient ischaemic attack (TIA) in Australian general practices. We evaluated whether age and sex disparities in cardiovascular risk factor management for primary prevention exist in general practice.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study using data from the Australian Stroke Clinical Registry (2014-2018) linked with general practice data from three primary health networks in Victoria, Australia. We included adults who had ≥2 encounters with a general practitioner within 12 months immediately before the first stroke/TIA. Cardiovascular risk factor management within 12 months before stroke/TIA was evaluated in terms of: assessment of risk factors (blood pressure [BP], serum lipids, blood glucose, body weight); prescription of prevention medications (BP, lipid-, glucose-lowering, antithrombotic agents); and attainment of risk factor targets.

RESULTS

Of 2,880 patients included (median age 76.5 years, 48.4% women), 80.9% were assessed for BP, 49.9% serum lipids, 46.8% blood glucose, and 39.3% body weight. Compared to patients aged 65-84 years, those aged <65 or ≥85 years were less often assessed for risk factors, with women aged ≥85 years assessed for significantly fewer risk factors than their male counterparts. The most prescribed prevention medications were BP-lowering (64.9%) and lipid-lowering agents (42.0%). There were significant sex differences among those aged <65 years (34.7% women vs. 40.2% men) and ≥85 years (34.0% women vs. 44.3% men) for lipid-lowering agents. Risk factor target attainment was generally poorer in men than women, especially among those aged <65 years.

CONCLUSION

Age-sex disparity exists in risk factor management for primary prevention in general practice, and this was more pronounced among younger patients and older women.

Cost-effectiveness of an individualised management program after stroke: a trial-based economic evaluation

INTRODUCTION

Evidence on the cost-effectiveness of comprehensive post-stroke programs is limited. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of an individualised management program (IMP) for stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA).

METHODS

A cost-utility analysis alongside a randomised controlled trial with a 2-year follow-up, from both societal and health system perspectives, was conducted. Adults with stroke/TIA discharged from hospitals were randomised by primary care practice to receive either usual care (UC) or an IMP in addition to UC. An IMP included at-home stroke-specific nurse-led education and a specialist review of care plans at baseline, 3, and 12 months, and telephone reviews by nurses at 6 and 18 months. Costs in 2021 Australian dollars (AUD) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were discounted by 5%. The probability of cost-effectiveness of the intervention was determined by quantifying 10,000 bootstrapped iterations of incremental costs and QALYs below the threshold of AUD50,000/QALY.

RESULTS

Among the 502 participants (65% male, median age 69 years), 251 (50%) were in the intervention group. From a health system perspective, the incremental cost per QALY gained was AUD53,175 with an IMP compared to UC alone. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of AUD50,000/QALY, an IMP was preferred in 46.7% of iterations. From a societal perspective, the intervention was dominant in 52.7% of iterations with mean per-patient costs of AUD49,045 and 1.352 QALYs compared to mean per-patient costs of AUD51,394 and 1.324 QALYs in the UC group. The probability of cost-effectiveness of an IMP, from a societal perspective, was 60.5%.

CONCLUSIONS

Care for people with stroke/TIA using an IMP was cost-effective from a societal perspective over two years. Economic evaluations of prevention programs need sufficient time horizons and consideration of costs beyond direct health care utilisation to demonstrate their value to society.

Cost-effectiveness of a government policy to incentivise chronic disease management following stroke: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the cost-effectiveness of government policies that support primary care physicians to provide comprehensive chronic disease management (CDM).

AIMS

To estimate the potential cost-effectiveness of CDM policies, over a lifetime, in long-time survivors of stroke.

METHODS

A Markov model, using three health states (stable, hospitalised, dead), was developed to simulate the costs and benefits of CDM policies over 30 years (with 1-year cycles). Transition probabilities and costs from a health system perspective were obtained from the linkage of data between the Australian Stroke Clinical Registry (cohort n=12,368, 42% female, median age 70 years, 45% had a claim) and government-held hospital, Medicare, and pharmaceutical claims datasets. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were obtained from a comparable cohort (n=512, 34% female, median age 69.6 years, 52% had a claim) linked with Medicare claims and death data. A 3% discount rate was applied to costs in Australian dollars (AUD, 2016) and QALYs beyond 12 months. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to understand uncertainty.

RESULTS

Per-person average total lifetime costs were AUD142,939 and 8.97 QALYs for those with a claim, and AUD103,889 and 8.98 QALYs for those without a claim. This indicates that these CDM policies were costlier without improving QALYs. The probability of cost-effectiveness of CDM was 26.1%, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of AUD50,000/QALY.

CONCLUSION

CDM policies, designed to encourage comprehensive care, are unlikely to be cost-effective for stroke compared to care without CDM. Further research to understand how to deliver such care in a cost-effective manner is needed.

Statistical analysis plan for the Recovery-focused Community support to Avoid readmissions and improve Participation after Stroke randomised controlled clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Unplanned hospital presentations may occur post-stroke due to inadequate preparation for transitioning from hospital to home. The Recovery-focused Community support to Avoid readmissions and improve Participation after Stroke (ReCAPS) trial was designed to test the effectiveness of receiving a 12-week, self-management intervention, comprising personalised goal setting with a clinician and aligned educational/motivational electronic messages. Primary outcome is as follows: self-reported unplanned hospital presentations (emergency department/admission) within 90-day post-randomisation. We present the statistical analysis plan for this trial.

METHODS/DESIGN

Participants are randomised 1:1 in variable block sizes, with stratification balancing by age and level of baseline disability. The sample size was 890 participants, calculated to detect a 10% absolute reduction in the proportion of participants reporting unplanned hospital presentations/admissions, with 80% power and 5% significance level (two sided). Recruitment will end in December 2023 when funding is expended, and the sample size achieved will be used. Logistic regression, adjusted for the stratification variables, will be used to determine the effectiveness of the intervention on the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes will be evaluated using appropriate regression models. The primary outcome analysis will be based on intention to treat. A p-value ≤ 0.05 will indicate statistical significance. An independent Data Safety and Monitoring Committee has routinely reviewed the progress and safety of the trial.

CONCLUSIONS

This statistical analysis plan ensures transparency in reporting the trial outcomes. ReCAPS trial will provide novel evidence on the effectiveness of a digital health support package post-stroke.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov ACTRN12618001468213. Registered on August 31, 2018. SAP version 1.13 (October 12 2023) Protocol version 1.12 (October 12, 2022) SAP revisions Nil.

Risk Factors Associated with Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events after Ischemic Stroke: A Linked Registry Study

INTRODUCTION

Survivors of stroke are at risk of experiencing subsequent major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). We aimed to determine the incidence of, and risk factors for, MACE after first-ever ischemic stroke, by age group (18-64 years vs. ≥65 years).

METHODS

Observational cohort study using patient-level data from the Australian Stroke Clinical Registry (2009-2013), linked with hospital administrative data. We included adults with first-ever ischemic stroke who had no previous acute cardiovascular admissions and followed these patients for 2 years post-discharge, or until the first post-stroke MACE event. A Fine-Gray sub-distribution hazard model, accounting for the competing risk of non-cardiovascular death, was used to determine factors for incident post-stroke MACE.

RESULTS

Among 5,994 patients with a first-ever ischemic stroke (median age 73 years, 45% female), 17% were admitted for MACE within 2 years (129 events per 1,000 person-years). The median time to first post-stroke MACE was 117 days (89 days if aged <65 years vs. 126 days if aged ≥65 years; p = 0.025). Among patients aged 18-64 years, receiving intravenous thrombolysis (sub-distribution hazard ratio [SHR] 0.51 [95% CI, 0.28-0.92]) or being discharged to inpatient rehabilitation (SHR 0.65 [95% CI, 0.46-0.92]) were associated with a reduced incidence of post-stroke MACE. In those aged ≥65 years, being unable to walk on admission (SHR 1.33 [95% CI 1.15-1.54]), and history of smoking (SHR 1.40 [95% CI 1.14-1.71]) or atrial fibrillation (SHR 1.31 [95% CI 1.14-1.51]) were associated with an increased incidence of post-stroke MACE. Acute management in a large hospital (>300 beds) for the initial stroke event was associated with reduced incidence of post-stroke MACE, irrespective of age group.

CONCLUSIONS

MACE is common within 2 years of stroke, with most events occurring within the first year. We have identified important factors to consider when designing interventions to prevent MACE after stroke, particularly among those aged <65 years.

Morbidity and utilisation of healthcare services among people with cardiometabolic disease in three diverse regions of rural India

OBJECTIVES

To assess the prevalence and determinants of cardiometabolic disease (CMD), and the factors associated with healthcare utilisation, among people with CMD.

METHODS

Using a cross-sectional design, 11,657 participants were recruited from randomly selected villages in 3 regions located in Kerala and Andhra Pradesh from 2014 to 2016. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors independently associated with CMD and healthcare utilisation (public or private).

RESULTS

Thirty-four per cent (n = 3629) of participants reported having ≥1 CMD, including hypertension (21.6%), diabetes (11.6%), heart disease (5.0%) or chronic kidney disease (CKD) (1.6%). The prevalence of CMD was progressively greater in regions of greater socio-economic position (SEP), ranging from 19.1% to 40.9%. Among those with CMD 41% had sought any medical advice in the last month, with only 19% utilising public health facilities. Among people with CMD, those with health insurance utilised more healthcare (age-gender adjusted odds ratio (AOR) (95% confidence interval (CI)): 1.31 (1.13, 1.51)) as did those who reported accessing private rather than public health services (1.43 (1.23, 1.66)).

DISCUSSION

The prevalence of CMD is high in these regions of rural India and is positively associated with indices of SEP. The utilisation of outpatient health services, particularly public services, among those with CMD is low.

In Search of a Gold Standard Tool for Assessing Knowledge of Stroke: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Knowledge of stroke is essential to empower people to reduce their risk of these events. However, valid tools are required for accurate and reliable measurement of stroke knowledge. We aimed to systematically review contemporary stroke knowledge assessment tools and appraise their content validity, feasibility, and measurement properties.

METHODS

The protocol was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42023403566). Electronic databases (MEDLINE, PsycInfo, CINAHL, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science) were searched to identify published articles (1 January 2015-1 March 2023), in which stroke knowledge was assessed using a validated tool. Two reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts prior to undertaking full-text review. COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement INstruments (COSMIN) methods guided the appraisal of content validity (relevance, comprehensiveness, comprehensibility), feasibility, and measurement properties.

RESULTS

After removing duplicates, the titles and abstracts of 718 articles were screened; 323 reviewed in full; with 42 included (N = 23 unique stroke knowledge tools). For content validity, all tools were relevant, two were comprehensive, and seven were comprehensible. Validation metrics were reported for internal consistency (n = 20 tools), construct validity (n = 17 tools), cross-cultural validity (n = 15 tools), responsiveness (n = 9 tools), reliability (n = 7 tools), structural validity (n = 3 tools), and measurement error (n = 1 tool). The Stroke Knowledge Test met all content validity criteria, with validation data for six measurement properties (n = 3 rated "Sufficient").

CONCLUSION

Assessment of stroke knowledge is not standardised and many tools lacked validated content or measurement properties. The Stroke Knowledge Test was the most comprehensive but requires updating and further validation for endorsement as a gold standard.

Global variation in diabetes diagnosis and prevalence based on fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but these measurements can identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening, had elevated FPG, HbA1c or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardized proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed and detected in survey screening ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the age-standardized proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c was more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global shortfall in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance.

Intraoperative hemodynamics and risk of cardiac surgery-associated acute kidney injury: An observation study and a feasibility clinical trial

Targeting greater pump flow and mean arterial pressure (MAP) during cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) could potentially alleviate renal hypoxia and reduce the risk of postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI). Therefore, in an observational study of 93 patients undergoing on-pump cardiac surgery, we tested whether intraoperative hemodynamic management differed between patients who did and did not develop AKI. Then, in 20 patients, we assessed the feasibility of a larger-scale trial in which patients would be randomized to greater than normal target pump flow and MAP, or usual care, during CPB. In the observational cohort, MAP during hypothermic CPB averaged 68.8 ± 8.0 mmHg (mean ± SD) in the 36 patients who developed AKI and 68.9 ± 6.3 mmHg in the 57 patients who did not (p = 0.98). Pump flow averaged 2.4 ± 0.2 L/min/m2 in both groups. In the feasibility clinical trial, compared with usual care, those randomized to increased target pump flow and MAP had greater mean pump flow (2.70 ± 0.23 vs. 2.42 ± 0.09 L/min/m2 during the period before rewarming) and systemic oxygen delivery (363 ± 60 vs. 281 ± 45 mL/min/m2 ). Target MAP ≥80 mmHg was achieved in 66.6% of patients in the intervention group but in only 27.3% of patients in the usual care group. Nevertheless, MAP during CPB did not differ significantly between the two groups. We conclude that little insight was gained from our observational study regarding the impact of variations in pump flow and MAP on the risk of AKI. However, a clinical trial to assess the effects of greater target pump flow and MAP on the risk of AKI appears feasible.

Socioeconomic status and health-related quality of life after stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with stroke occurrence and survival following stroke but its association with health-related quality of life (HRQoL) following stroke remains uncertain. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine the association between SES and HRQoL after stroke.

METHODS

PubMed, SCOPUS, EMBASE, and Web of Science were searched to identify relevant cohort and case-control studies between January 2000 and May 2022. Two authors screened titles, abstracts and full text articles. One author extracted data from all included studies. Meta-analyses were performed for studies with comparable measurements of SES and HRQoL. Random effects models were used to estimate pooled summary standardised mean differences in HRQoL by SES.

RESULTS

Out of 1,876 citations, 39 studies incorporated measurement of overall HRQoL following stroke and were included in the systematic review, with 17 studies included in the meta-analyses. Overall, reports including education, income, occupation and work status effects on HRQoL after stroke were inconsistent among all included 39 studies. In the global meta-analysis of 17 studies, HRQoL among survivors of stroke was lower in the low SES group than in the high SES group (standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.36, 95% CI -0.52, -0.20, p < 0.0001). When using education and income indicators separately, summary effects were similar to those of the global analysis (low versus high education SMD -0.38, 95% CI -0.57, -0.18, p < 0.0001; low versus high income SMD -0.39, 95% CI -0.59, -0.19, p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Across all SES indicators, people with stroke who have lower SES have poorer overall HRQoL than those with higher SES. Accessibility and affordability of poststroke support services should be taken into consideration when planning and delivering services to people with low SES.

Differing Definitions of First-Ever Stroke Influence Incidence Estimates More than Trends: A Study Using Linked Administrative Data

INTRODUCTION

Researchers apply varying definitions when measuring stroke incidence using administrative data. We aimed to investigate the sensitivity of incidence estimates to varying definitions of stroke and lookback periods and to provide updated incidence rates and trends for Western Australia (WA).

METHODS

We used linked state-wide hospital and death data from 1985 to 2017 to identify incident strokes from 2005 to 2017. A standard definition was applied which included strokes coded as the principal hospital diagnosis or the underlying cause of death, with a 10-year lookback used to clear prevalent cases. Alternative definitions were compared against the standard definition by percentage difference in case numbers. Age-standardised incidence rates were calculated, and age- and sex-adjusted Poisson regression models were used to estimate incidence trends.

RESULTS

The standard definition with a 10-year lookback period captured 31,274 incident strokes. Capture increased by 19.3% when including secondary diagnoses, 4.1% when including nontraumatic subdural and extradural haemorrhage, and 8.1% when including associated causes of death. Excluding death records reduced capture by 11.1%. A 20-year lookback reduced over-ascertainment by 2.0%, and a 1-year lookback increased capture by 13.3%. Incidence declined 0.6% annually (95% confidence interval -0.9, -0.3). Annual reductions were similar for most definitions except when death records were excluded (-0.1%, CI: -0.4, 0.2) and with the shortest lookback periods (greatest annual reduction).

CONCLUSION

Stroke incidence has declined in WA. Differing methods of identifying stroke influence estimates of incidence to a greater extent than estimates of trends. Reductions in stroke incidence over time are primarily driven by declines in fatal strokes.

Costs of acute hospitalisation for stroke and transient ischaemic attack in Australia

BACKGROUND

Stroke is a high-cost condition. Detailed patient-level assessments of the costs of care received and outcomes achieved provide useful information for organisation and optimisation of the health system.

OBJECTIVES

To describe the costs of hospital care for stroke and transient ischaemic attack (TIA) and investigate factors associated with costs.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study using data from the Australian Stroke Clinical Registry (AuSCR) collected between 2009 and 2013 linked to hospital administrative data and clinical costing data in Queensland. Clinical costing data include standardised assignment of costs from hospitals that contribute to the National Hospital Costing programme. Patient-level costs for each hospital admission were described according to the demographic, clinical and treatment characteristics of patients. Multivariable median regression with clustering by hospital was used to determine factors associated with greater costs.

RESULTS

Among 22 hospitals, clinical costing data were available for 3909 of 5522 patient admissions in the AuSCR (71%). Compared to those without clinical costing data, patients with clinical costing data were more often aged <65 years (30% with cost data vs 24% without cost data, p < 0.001) and male (56% with cost data vs 49% without cost data, p < 0.001). Median cost of an acute episode was $7945 (interquartile range $4176 to $14970) and the median length of stay was 5 days (interquartile range 2 to 10 days). The most expensive cost buckets were related to medical (n = 3897, median cost $1577), nursing (n = 3908, median cost $2478) and critical care (n = 434, median cost $3064). Factors associated with greater total costs were a diagnosis of intracerebral haemorrhage, greater socioeconomic position, in-hospital stroke and prior history of stroke.

CONCLUSION

Medical and nursing costs were incurred by most patients admitted with stroke or TIA, and were relatively more expensive on average than other cost buckets such as imaging and allied health.

IMPLICATIONS

Scaling this data linkage to national data collections may provide valuable insights into activity-based funding at public hospitals. Regular report of these costs should be encouraged to optimise economic evaluations.

Area-level and individual-level socio-economic differences in health-related quality of life trajectories: Results from a 10-year longitudinal stroke study

BACKGROUND

We examined area-level (aSES) and individual-level (iSES) socio-economic status on trajectories of HRQoL to 10 years following stroke.

METHODS

Participants with strokes between 1/5/1996 and 30/4/1999 completed the Assessment of Quality of Life instrument (AQoL, range: -0.04 [worse than death] to 0 [death] to 1 [full health]) at ≥one of 3month, 6-month, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, 4-year, 5-year, 7-year and 10-year interviews after stroke. Sociodemographic and health information were collected at baseline. We derived aSES from postcode using the Australian Socio-Economic Indexes For Area (2006) (categories: high, medium, low), and iSES from lifetime occupation (categories: non-manual, manual). Multivariable linear mixed effects modelling was used to estimate trajectories of HRQoL over 10 years, by aSES and iSES, adjusting for age, sex, cardiovascular disease, smoking, diabetes, stroke severity, stroke type, and the time influence on age and health conditions.

RESULTS

Of 1,686 participants enrolled, we excluded 239 with 'possible' stroke and 284 with missing iSES. Among the remaining 1,163 participants, 1,123 (96.6%) had AQoL assessed at ≥3 timepoints. In multivariable analysis, over time, people in the medium aSES group had mean 0.02 (95% CI -0.06, 0.02) greater reduction in AQoL score, and people in the low aSES group had mean 0.04 (95% CI, -0.07, -0.001) greater reduction, than those in the high aSES group. Manual workers had an average 0.04 (95% CI, -0.07, -0.01) greater reduction in AQoL score over time than non-manual workers.

CONCLUSIONS

Over time, HRQoL declines in all people with stroke, declining most rapidly in lower SES groups.

Sustainability of a 12-month lifestyle intervention delivered by community health workers in reducing blood pressure in Nepal: 5-year follow-up of the COBIN open-label, cluster randomised trial

BACKGROUND

The sustainability and scalability of limited-duration interventions in low-income and middle-income countries remain unclear. We aimed to investigate the sustainability in reduction of blood pressure through a 12-month lifestyle intervention led by community health workers to reduce blood pressure in Nepal, 4 years after the intervention ceased.

METHODS

The Community-Based Intervention for Control of Hypertension in Nepal (COBIN) trial was a non-blinded, cluster-randomised trial done in Kaski, Nepal. Adults aged 25-65 years were eligible. People were excluded if they declined consent, were severely ill, unlikely to be in the community throughout the intervention, or pregnant. During the 12-month intervention, female community health volunteers (FCHVs) visited participants in the intervention groups and provided lifestyle counselling and blood pressure measurement every 4 months. At the end of the 12-month intervention, systolic blood pressure was significantly lower in the intervention group than in the usual care group in all cohorts, ranging from -2·3 mm Hg (95% CI -3·8 to -0·8) lower in those with normal blood pressure to -4·9 mm Hg (-7·8 to -2·0) in the hypertensive cohort. The primary outcome for this follow-up study was a mean change in systolic blood pressure from baseline to follow-up at 60 months. We did an intention-to-treat analysis.

FINDINGS

Between April 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2015, 1638 participants were recruited in COBIN (939 [57·3%] assigned to intervention and 699 [42·7%] assigned to usual care). Of the 1468 (89·6%) who completed the 12-month assessments, we followed up 1352 (92·1%) participants at 60 months, between Oct 11, 2020, and May 5, 2022. 964 (71·3%) participants were women and 388 (28·7%) were men. From baseline to 60 months, the mean systolic blood pressure increased by 10·4 mm Hg (95% CI 9·1-11·6) in the intervention group and 6·0 mm Hg (4·6-7·5) in the usual care group (adjusted mean difference 4·1 mm Hg [2·2 to 5·8]).

INTERPRETATION

Lifestyle counselling and blood pressure monitoring by community health workers is effective in substantially reducing blood pressure while adults are being monitored in a trial but, following cessation of the intervention, this benefit is not maintained in the long term, with potential for harm. This finding could have important implications for funders and research communities to regularly target participants for education and follow-up at an optimal timepoint to reduce any likelihood of harm.

FUNDING

Monash University (Melbourne, VIC, Australia) and the Jayanti Memorial Trust (Kathmandu, Nepal).

TRANSLATION

For the Nepali translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Incidence of Stroke in the Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal Populations of Australia: A Data Linkage Study

BACKGROUND

Most estimates of stroke incidence among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (hereinafter Aboriginal) Australians are confined to single regions and include small sample sizes. We aimed to measure and compare stroke incidence in Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal residents across central and western Australia.

METHODS

Whole-population multijurisdictional person-linked data from hospital and death datasets were used to identify stroke admissions and stroke-related deaths (2001-2015) in Western Australia, South Australia, and the Northern Territory. Fatal (including out-of-hospital deaths) and nonfatal incident (first-ever) strokes in patients aged 20-84 years were identified during the 4-year study period (2012-2015), using a 10-year lookback period to exclude people with prior stroke. Incidence rates per 100 000 population/year were estimated for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations, age-standardized to the World Health Organization World Standard population.

RESULTS

In a population of 3 223 711 people (3.7% Aboriginal), 11 740 incident (first-ever) strokes (20.6% regional/remote location of residence; 15.6% fatal) were identified from 2012 to 2015, 675 (5.7%) in Aboriginal people (73.6% regional/remote; 17.0% fatal). Median age of Aboriginal cases (54.5 years; 50.1% female) was 16 years younger than non-Aboriginal cases (70.3 years; 44.1% female; P<0.001), with significantly greater prevalence of comorbidities. Age-standardized stroke incidence in Aboriginal people (192/100 000 [95% CI, 177-208]) was 2.9-fold greater than in non-Aboriginal people (66/100 000 [95% CI, 65-68]) aged 20-84 years; fatal incidence was 4.2-fold greater (38/100 000 [95% CI, 31-46] versus 9/100 000 [95% CI, 9-10]). Disparities were particularly apparent at younger ages (20-54 years), where age-standardized stroke incidence was 4.3-fold greater in Aboriginal people (90/100 000 [95% CI, 81-100]) than non-Aboriginal people (21/100 000 [95% CI, 20-22]).

CONCLUSIONS

Stroke occurred more commonly, and at younger ages, in Aboriginal than non-Aboriginal populations. Greater prevalence of baseline comorbidities was present in the younger Aboriginal population. Improved primary prevention is required. To optimize stroke prevention, interventions should include culturally appropriate community-based health promotion and integrated support for nonmetropolitan health services.

Strategies to Reduce Racial and Ethnic Inequities in Stroke Preparedness, Care, Recovery, and Risk Factor Control: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association

Stroke is a disease of disparities, with tremendous racial and ethnic inequities in incidence, prevalence, treatment, and outcomes. The accumulating literature on the relationship between stroke and social determinants of health (ie, the structural conditions of the places where people live, learn, work, and play) contributes to our understanding of stroke inequities. Several interventions have been tested concurrently to reduce racial and ethnic inequities in stroke preparedness, care, recovery, and risk factor control. It is regrettable that no common theoretical framework has been used to facilitate comparison of interventions. In this scientific statement, we summarize, across the stroke continuum of care, trials of interventions addressing racial and ethnic inequities in stroke care and outcomes. We reviewed the literature on interventions to address racial and ethnic inequities to identify gaps and areas for future research. Although numerous trials tested interventions aimed at reducing inequities in prehospital, acute care, transitions in care, and poststroke risk factor control, few addressed inequities in rehabilitation, recovery, and social reintegration. Most studies addressed proximate determinants (eg, medication adherence, health literacy, and health behaviors), but upstream determinants (eg, structural racism, housing, income, food security, access to care) were not addressed. A common theoretical model of social determinants can help researchers understand the heterogeneity of social determinants, inform future directions in stroke inequities research, support research in understudied areas within the continuum of care, catalyze implementation of successful interventions in additional settings, allow for comparison across studies, and provide insight into whether addressing upstream or downstream social determinants has the strongest effect on reducing inequities in stroke care and outcomes.

Combining general and central measures of adiposity to identify risk of hypertension: a cross-sectional survey in rural India

AIM

In three socioeconomically diverse regions of rural India, we determined the optimal cut-offs for definition of overweight, the prevalence of overweight, and the relationships between measures of overweight and risk of hypertension.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

Villages were randomly sampled within rural Trivandrum, West Godavari, and Rishi Valley. Sampling of individuals was stratified by age group and sex. Cut-offs for measures of adiposity were compared using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Associations between hypertension and definitions of overweight were assessed by logistic regression.

RESULTS

Of 11 657 participants (50 % male; median age 45 years), 29.8 % had hypertension. Large proportions were overweight as defined by body mass index (BMI) ≥ 23 kg/m2 (47.7 %), waist circumference (WC) ≥ 90 cm for men or ≥ 80 cm for women (39.6 %), waist-hip ratio (WHR) ≥ 0.9 for men or ≥ 0.8 for women (65.6 %), waist-height ratio (WHtR) ≥ 0.5 (62.5 %), or by BMI plus either WHR, WC or WHtR (45.0 %). All definitions of overweight were associated with hypertension, with optimal cut-offs being at, or close to, the World Health Organization (WHO) Asia-Pacific standards. Having overweight according to both BMI and a measure of central adiposity was associated with approximately twice the risk of hypertension than overweight defined by only one measure.

CONCLUSIONS

Overweight, as assessed by both general and central measures, is prevalent in rural southern India. WHO standard cut-offs are appropriate in this setting for assessing risk of hypertension. However, combining BMI with a measure of central adiposity identifies risk of hypertension better than any single measure. The risk of hypertension is significantly greater in those centrally and generally overweight than those overweight by a single measure.

Personalized knowledge to reduce the risk of stroke (PERKS-International): Protocol for a randomized controlled trial

RATIONALE

Theoretically, most strokes could be prevented through the management of modifiable risk factors. The Stroke Riskometer™ mobile phone application (hereon "The App") uses an individual's data to provide personalized information and advice to reduce their risk of stroke.

AIMS

To determine the effect of The App on a combined cardiovascular risk score (Life's Simple 7^®, LS7) of modifiable risk factors at 6 months post-randomization.

METHODS AND DESIGN

PERKS-International is a Phase III, multicentre, prospective, pragmatic, open-label, single-blinded endpoint, two-arm randomized controlled trial (RCT). Inclusion criteria are as follows: age ⩾ 35 and ⩽75 years; ⩾2 LS7 risk factors; smartphone ownership; no history of stroke/myocardial infarction/cognitive impairment/terminal illness. The intervention group (IG) will be provided with The App, and the usual care group (UCG) is provided with generic online information about risk factors, but not be informed about The App. Face-to-face assessments will be conducted at baseline and 6 months, and online at 3 and 12 months. The RCT includes a process and economic evaluation.

STUDY OUTCOMES AND SAMPLE SIZE

The primary outcome is a difference in the mean change in LS7 (seven individual items: blood pressure, cholesterol, glucose, body mass index (BMI), smoking, physical activity, and diet) from baseline to 6 months post-randomization with intention-to-treat analysis. Secondary outcomes include: change in individual LS7 items, quality of life; stroke awareness, adverse events; health service use; and costs. Based on pilot data, 790 participants (395 IG, 395 UCG) will be required to provide 80% power (two-sided α = 0.05) to detect a mean difference in the LS7 of ⩾0.40 (SD 1.61) in IG compared to 0.01 (SD 1.44) in the UCG at 6 months post-randomization.

DISCUSSION

Stroke is largely preventable. This study will provide evidence of the effectiveness of a mobile app to reduce stroke risk.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ACTRN12621000211864.

Large Burden of Stroke Incidence in People with Cardiac Disease: A Linked Data Cohort Study

Purpose

People with cardiac disease have 2-4 times greater risk of stroke than the general population. We measured stroke incidence in people with coronary heart disease (CHD), atrial fibrillation (AF) or valvular heart disease (VHD).

Methods

We used a person-linked hospitalization/mortality dataset to identify all people hospitalized with CHD, AF or VHD (1985-2017), and stratified them as pre-existing (hospitalized 1985-2012 and alive at October 31, 2012) or new (first-ever cardiac hospitalization in the five-year study period, 2012-2017). We identified first-ever strokes occurring from 2012 to 2017 in patients aged 20-94 years and calculated age-specific and age-standardized rates (ASR) for each cardiac cohort.

Results

Of the 175,560 people in the cohort, most had CHD (69.9%); 16.3% had multiple cardiac conditions. From 2012-17, 5871 first-ever strokes occurred. ASRs were greater in females than males in single and multiple condition cardiac groups, largely driven by rates in females aged ≥75 years, with stroke incidence in this age group being at least 20% greater in females than males in each cardiac subgroup. In females aged 20-54 years, stroke incidence was 4.9-fold greater in those with multiple versus single cardiac conditions. This differential declined with increasing age. Non-fatal stroke incidence was greater than fatal stroke in all age groups except in the 85-94 age group. Incidence rate ratios were up to 2-fold larger in new versus pre-existing cardiac disease.

Conclusion

Stroke incidence in people with cardiac disease is substantial, with older females, and younger patients with multiple cardiac conditions, at elevated risk. These patients should be specifically targeted for evidence-based management to minimize the burden of stroke.

Abstract 140: The Incidence Of Stroke In Indigenous Populations Of Countries With A Very High Human Development Index: A Systematic Review

Introduction: Despite known socioeconomic and health disparities affecting Indigenous populations in developed countries, stroke incidence data are sparse. With Indigenous Advisory Board oversight, we undertook a systematic review to compare Indigenous with non-Indigenous stroke incidence rates in countries with a very high Human Development Index (HDI).

Methods: We identified population-based stroke incidence studies published from 1990-2022 in Indigenous adult populations of developed countries using PubMed, EMBASE and Global Health databases, without language restriction. We excluded non-peer-reviewed sources, studies with <10 Indigenous people, or studies not covering a 35-64 year minimum age range. Two reviewers independently screened titles, abstracts, and full texts, and extracted data. We assessed quality using "ideal" criteria for population-based stroke incidence studies, the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for risk of bias, and CONSIDER criteria for Indigenous research.

Results: Among 13,041 publications, 24 studies (19 full text, 5 abstracts) from 7 countries met inclusion criteria. Compared with respective non-Indigenous populations (Fig 1), age-standardised incidence rates were greater in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians (ratios ranging from 1.7-3.2), American Indians (1.2), Sámi of Sweden/Norway (1.08-2.14), and Singaporean Malay (1.7-1.9), with higher rate ratios at younger ages. Studies had substantial heterogeneity in design and risk of bias. Few investigators reported Indigenous stakeholder involvement.

Conclusions: In countries with a very high HDI, available data suggest marked disparities in stroke incidence in Indigenous populations, although there are gaps in data availability and quality. Indigenous stakeholder involvement in studies is infrequently reported. A greater understanding of stroke incidence in these populations is imperative for informing effective societal responses.

Association Between Changes in Norepinephrine Infusion Rate and Urinary Oxygen Tension After Cardiac Surgery

OBJECTIVES

To determine if the administration of norepinephrine to patients recovering from on-pump cardiac surgery is associated with changes in urinary oxygen tension (PO₂), an indirect index of renal medullary oxygenation.

DESIGN

Single center, prospective observational study.

SETTING

Surgical intensive care unit (ICU).

PARTICIPANTS

A nonconsecutive sample of 93 patients recovering from on-pump cardiac surgery.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

In the ICU, norepinephrine was the most commonly used vasopressor agent (90% of patients, 84/93), with fewer patients receiving epinephrine (48%, 45/93) or vasopressin (4%, 4/93). During the 30-to-60-minute period after increasing the infused dose of norepinephrine (n = 89 instances), urinary PO₂ decreased by (least squares mean ± SEM) 1.8 ± 0.5 mmHg from its baseline level of 25.1 ± 1.1 mmHg. Conversely, during the 30-to-60-minute period after the dose of norepinephrine was decreased (n = 134 instances), urinary PO₂ increased by 2.6 ± 0.5 mmHg from its baseline level of 22.7 ± 1.2 mmHg. No significant change in urinary PO₂ was detected when the dose of epinephrine was decreased (n = 21). There were insufficient observations to assess the effects of increasing the dose of epinephrine (n = 11) or of changing the dose of vasopressin (n <4).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients recovering from on-pump cardiac surgery, changes in norepinephrine dose are associated with reciprocal changes in urinary PO₂, potentially reflecting an effect of norepinephrine on renal medullary oxygenation.

Effect of alteplase, benzodiazepines and beta-blocker on post-stroke pneumonia: Exploration of VISTA-Acute

BACKGROUND

Post-stroke pneumonia is a frequent complication of stroke and is associated with high mortality. Investigators have described its associations with beta-blocker. However, there has been no evaluation of the role of recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (RTPA). We postulate that RTPA may modify the effect of stroke on pneumonia by reducing stroke disability. We explore this using data from neuroprotection trials in Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive (VISTA)-Acute.

METHOD

We evaluated the impact of RTPA and other medications in random forest model. Random forest is a type of supervised ensemble tree-based machine learning method. We used the standard approach for performing random forest and partitioned the data into training (70%) and validation (30%) sets. This action enabled to the model developed on training data to be evaluated in the validation data. We borrowed idea from Coalition Game Theory on fair distribution of marginal profit (Shapley value) to determine proportional contribution of a covariate to the model. Consistent with other analysis using the VISTA-Acute data, the diagnosis of post-stroke pneumonia was based on reports of serious adverse events.

RESULTS

The overall frequency of pneumonia was 10.9% (614/5652). It was present in 11.5% of the RTPA (270/2358) and 10.4% (344/3295) of the no RTPA groups. There was significant (p<0.05) imbalance in covariates (age, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), diabetes, and sex). The AUC for training data was 0.70 (95% CI 0.65-0.76), validation data was 0.67 (95% CI 0.62-0.73). The Shapley value shows that baseline NIHSS (≥10) and age (≥80) made the largest contribution to the model of pneumonia while absence of benzodiazepine may protect against pneumonia. RTPA and beta-blocker had very low effect on frequency of pneumonia.

CONCLUSION

In this cohort pneumonia was strongly associated with stroke severity and age whereas RTPA had a much lower effect. An intriguing finding is a possible association between benzodiazepine and pneumonia but this requires further evaluation.

Antihypertensive Medication Adherence and the Risk of Vascular Events and Falls After Stroke: A Real-World Effectiveness Study Using Linked Registry Data

BACKGROUND

Real-world evidence is limited on whether antihypertensive medications help avert major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) after stroke without increasing the risk of falls. We investigated the association of adherence to antihypertensive medications on the incidence of MACE and falls requiring hospitalization after stroke.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of adults who were newly dispensed antihypertensive medications after an acute stroke (Australian Stroke Clinical Registry 2012-2016; Queensland and Victoria). Pharmaceutical dispensing records were used to determine medication adherence according to the proportion of days covered in the first 6 months poststroke. Outcomes between 6 and 18 months postdischarge included: (i) MACE, a composite outcome of all-cause death, recurrent stroke or acute coronary syndrome; and (ii) falls requiring hospitalization. Estimates were derived using Cox models, adjusted for >30 confounders using inverse probability treatment weights.

RESULTS

Among 4076 eligible participants (median age 68 years; 37% women), 55% had a proportion of days covered ≥80% within 6 months postdischarge. In the subsequent 12 months, 360 (9%) participants experienced a MACE and 337 (8%) experienced a fall requiring hospitalization. After achieving balance between groups, participants with a proportion of days covered ≥80% had a reduced risk of MACE (hazard ratio: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.54-0.84) and falls requiring hospitalization (subdistribution hazard ratio: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.62-0.98) than those with a proportion of days covered <80%.

CONCLUSIONS

High adherence to antihypertensive medications within 6 months poststroke was associated with reduced risks of both MACE and falls requiring hospitalization. Patients should be encouraged to adhere to their antihypertensive medications to maximize poststroke outcomes.

A mixed-methods feasibility study of a new digital health support package for people after stroke: the Recovery-focused Community support to Avoid readmissions and improve Participation after Stroke (ReCAPS) intervention

Background

Evidence for digital health programmes to support people living with stroke is growing. We assessed the feasibility of a protocol and procedures for the Recovery-focused Community support to Avoid readmissions and improve Participation after Stroke (ReCAPS) trial.

Methods

We conducted a mixed-method feasibility study. Participants with acute stroke were recruited from three hospitals (Melbourne, Australia). Eligibility: Adults with stroke discharged from hospital to home within 10 days, modified Rankin Score 0–4 and prior use of Short Message System (SMS)/email. While in hospital, recruited participants contributed to structured person-centred goal setting and completed baseline surveys including self-management skills and health-related quality of life. Participants were randomised 7–14 days after discharge via REDCap® (1:1 allocation). Following randomisation, the intervention group received a 12-week programme of personalised electronic support messages (average 66 messages sent by SMS or email) aligned with their goals. The control group received six electronic administrative messages. Feasibility outcomes included the following: number of patients screened and recruited, study retainment, completion of outcome measures and acceptability of the ReCAPS intervention and trial procedures (e.g. participant satisfaction survey, clinician interviews). Protocol fidelity outcomes included number of goals developed (and quality), electronic messages delivered, stop messages received and engagement with messages. We undertook inductive thematic analysis of interview/open-text survey data and descriptive analysis of closed survey questions.

Results

Between November 2018 and October 2019, 312 patients were screened; 37/105 (35%) eligible patients provided consent (mean age 61 years; 32% female); 33 were randomised (17 to intervention). Overall, 29 (88%) participants completed the12-week outcome assessments with 12 (41%) completed assessments in the allocated timeframe and 16 also completing the satisfaction survey (intervention=10). Overall, trial participants felt that the study was worthwhile and most would recommend it to others. Six clinicians participated in one of three focus group interviews; while they reported that the trial and the process of goal setting were acceptable, they raised concerns regarding the additional time required to personalise goals.

Conclusion

The study protocol and procedures were feasible with acceptable retention of participants. Consent and goal personalisation procedures should be centralised for the phase III trial to reduce the burden on hospital clinicians.

Trial registration

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12618001468213 (date 31/08/2018); Universal Trial Number: U1111-1206-7237

Global stroke statistics 2022

BACKGROUND

Contemporary data on stroke epidemiology and the availability of national stroke clinical registries are important for providing evidence to improve practice and support policy decisions.

AIMS

To update the most current incidence, case-fatality, and mortality rates on stroke and identify national stroke clinical registries worldwide.

METHODS

We searched multiple databases (based on our existing search strategy) to identify new original papers, published between 1 November 2018 and 15 December 2021, that met ideal criteria for data on stroke incidence and case-fatality, and added these to the studies reported in our last review. To identify national stroke clinical registries, we updated our last search, using PubMed, from 6 February 2015 until 6 January 2022. We also screened reference lists of review papers, citation history of papers, and the gray literature. Mortality codes for International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 and ICD-10 were extracted from the World Health Organization (WHO) for each country providing these data. Population denominators were obtained from the United Nations (UN) or WHO (when data were unavailable in the UN database). Crude and adjusted stroke mortality rates were calculated using country-specific population denominators, and the most recent years of mortality data available for each country.

RESULTS

Since our last report in 2020, there were two countries (Chile and France) with new incidence studies meeting criteria for ideal population-based studies. New data on case-fatality were found for Chile and Kenya. The most current mortality data were available for the year 2014 (1 country), 2015 (2 countries), 2016 (11 countries), 2017 (10 countries), 2018 (19 countries), 2019 (36 countries), and 2020 (29 countries). Four countries (Libya, Solomon Islands, United Arab Emirates, and Lebanon) reported mortality data for the first time. Since our last report on registries in 2017, we identified seven more national stroke clinical registries, predominantly in high-income countries. These newly identified registries yielded limited information.

CONCLUSIONS

Up-to-date data on stroke incidence, case-fatality, and mortality continue to provide evidence of disparities and the scale of burden in low- and middle-income countries. Although more national stroke clinical registries were identified, information from these newly identified registries was limited. Highlighting data scarcity or even where a country is ranked might help facilitate more research or greater policy attention in this field.

Does a History of Cancer Influence the Effectiveness of Statins on Outcomes After Stroke?

BACKGROUND

Evidence is growing on anticancer effects of statins. We investigated whether the effectiveness of treatment with statins after ischemic stroke on mortality is influenced by a history of cancer.

METHODS

Analyses of 90-day survivors of ischemic stroke (2012-2016; 45 hospitals) using linked registry and administrative data. Dispense of statins within 90 days postdischarge was determined from pharmaceutical records. Participants were followed from 91 days postdischarge until death or June 30, 2018. History of cancer was determined from hospital data. Propensity score-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to determine the association between being dispensed statins and survival. The influence of history of cancer on this association was assessed based on the concepts of (1) statistical interaction and (2) biological interaction using 3 indices: relative excess risk due to interaction>0, attributable proportion due to interaction >0, or synergy index >1.

RESULTS

Among 9948 eligible participants (median age=72 years, 42% female), there were 1463 deaths. In adjusted analyses, there was no statistical interaction between being dispensed statins and history of cancer on mortality (P=0.156). However, being dispensed statins had a significant positive biological interaction with having a history of cancer on mortality: relative excess risk due to interaction, 2.80 (95% CI, 1.56-5.05), attributable proportion due to interaction, 0.45 (95% CI, 0.23-0.66), and synergy index, 2.14 (95% CI, 1.32-3.49).

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment with statins after ischemic stroke may confer additional survival benefits for people who also have had cancer.

Mixed methods evaluation to explore participant experiences of a pilot randomized trial to facilitate self-management of people living with stroke: Inspiring virtual enabled resources following vascular events (iVERVE)

Introduction

Despite digital health tools being popular for supporting self‐management of chronic diseases, little research has been undertaken on stroke. We developed and pilot tested, using a randomized controlled design, a multicomponent digital health programme, known as Inspiring Virtual Enabled Resources following Vascular Events (iVERVE), to improve self‐management after stroke. The 4‐week trial incorporated facilitated person‐centred goal setting, with those in the intervention group receiving electronic messages aligned to their goals, versus limited administrative messages for the control group. In this paper, we describe the participant experience of the various components involved with the iVERVE trial.

Methods

Mixed method design: satisfaction surveys (control and intervention) and a focus group interview (purposively selected intervention participants). Experiences relating to goal setting and overall trial satisfaction were obtained from intervention and control participants, with feedback on the electronic message component from intervention participants. Inductive thematic analysis was used for interview data and open‐text responses, and closed questions were summarized descriptively. Triangulation of data allowed participants' perceptions to be explored in depth.

Results

Overall, 27/54 trial participants completed the survey (13 intervention: 52%; 14 control: 48%); and 5/8 invited participants in the intervention group attended the focus group. Goal setting: The approach was considered comprehensive, with the involvement of health professionals in the process helpful in developing realistic, meaningful and person‐centred goals. Electronic messages (intervention): Messages were perceived as easy to understand (92%), and the frequency of receipt was considered appropriate (11/13 survey; 4/5 focus group). The content of messages was considered motivational (62%) and assisted participants to achieve their goals (77%). Some participants described the benefits of receiving messages as a ‘reminder’ to act. Overall trial satisfaction: Messages were acceptable for educating about stroke (77%). Having options for short message services or email to receive messages was considered important. Feedback on the length of the intervention related to specific goals, and benefits of receiving the programme earlier after stroke was expressed.

Conclusion

The participant experience has indicated acceptance and utility of iVERVE. Feedback from this evaluation is invaluable to inform refinements to future Phase II and III trials, and wider research in the field.

Patient or Public Contribution

Two consumer representatives sourced from the Stroke Foundation (Australia) actively contributed to the design of the iVERVE programme. In this study, participant experiences directly contributed to the further development of the iVERVE intervention and future trial design.

Exploring dimensions of quality-of-life in survivors of stroke with communication disabilities - a brief report

BACKGROUND

People with communication disabilities post-stroke have poor quality-of-life.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to explore the association of self-reported communication disabilities with different dimensions of quality-of-life between 90 and 180 days post-stroke.

METHODS

Cross-sectional survey data were obtained between 90 and 180 days post-stroke from registrants in the Australian Stroke Clinical Registry recruited from three hospitals in Queensland. The usual follow-up survey included the EQ5D-3L. Responses to the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, and extra questions (e.g. communication disabilities) were also collected. We used χ² statistics to determine differences.

RESULTS

Overall, 244/647 survivors completed the survey. Respondents with communication disabilities (n = 72) more often reported moderate to extreme problems in all EQ5D-3L dimensions, than those without communication disabilities (n = 172): anxiety or depression (74% vs 40%, p < .001), pain or discomfort (58% vs 39%, p = .006), self-care (46% vs 18%, p < .001), usual activities (77% vs 49%, p < .001), and mobility (68% vs 35%, p < .001). Respondents with communication disabilities reported less fatigue (66% vs 89%, p < .001), poorer cognitive skills (thinking) (16% vs 1%, p < .001) and lower social participation (31% vs 6%, p < .001) than those without communication disabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

Survivors of stroke with communication disabilities are more negatively impacted across different dimensions of quality-of-life (as reported between 90 and 180 days post-stroke) compared to those without communication disabilities. This highlights the need for timely and on-going comprehensive multidisciplinary person-centered support.

Day and night blood pressure variability among older persons in South-Western Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Hypertension is the largest contributor to the global burden of disease. Emerging risk factors for cardiovascular disease include blood pressure variability (BPV), but evidence on BPV is lacking among older Nigerians. We reported BPV in a cohort of older persons at the University College Hospital (UCH), Ibadan.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of respondents aged >50 years within the Ibadan Ambulatory Blood Pressure Registry at the UCH, Ibadan, Nigeria. Socio-demographic characteristics, lifestyle habits and anthropometric measurements were obtained.

RESULTS

Among 639 respondents, 332 (52.0%) were female. The blood pressure (BP) variables were strongly associated with age. Compared with younger age groups, mean diastolic BP (DBP) was less at an older age, whereas mean pulse pressure was greater. During the wake-up and sleep periods, mean DBP and mean arterial BP were less with each increasing age category, whereas mean pulse pressure was larger with each increasing age category. BP dipping, systolic, diastolic and mean arterial BP decreased with age. Overall, timed BPV increased significantly with increasing age. The prevalence of white-coat hypertension was greater among older participants than younger participants. Most respondents in the 50-59 years' age group were non-dippers (55.8%), whereas 33.7% of older respondents were reverse-dippers.

CONCLUSION

Older persons experienced a greater abnormal circadian blood variation and greater BPV than younger people. In Nigeria, follow-up data are needed to determine the prognostic significance of these data in this population.

Risk factors for incident cardiovascular events among adults in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

The relative contributions of risk factors for cardiovascular events at a population level has received little attention in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) of risk factors associated with incident cardiovascular events in LMICs. We searched six databases for relevant articles, supplemented with a manual search of reference lists. Articles included in the meta-analyses were those based on prospective community-based cohorts and incorporating adjusted hazard ratios (HR) or relative risks with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for associations between risk factors and a composite cardiovascular and/or stroke endpoint. Pooled HRs and 95% CI were calculated using the random effects model. We assessed heterogeneity using the I² test and study quality using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. We calculated the PAF of each associated risk factor. The protocol was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42019122741). We identified 18 cohorts from LMICs with 1,125,846 participants, 77,045 composite cardiovascular events and 42,216 strokes. Substantial proportions of incident cardiovascular events were attributable to hypertension (HR [95% CI], 2.23 [2.01-2.48], PAF = 28%); current smoking (1.44 [1.31-1.58], PAF = 10%); and diabetes mellitus (1.93 [1.67-2.23], PAF = 8%). Other risk factors identified included number of children, depression, bone mineral density, and air pollution. A substantial proportion of incident cardiovascular events were linked to traditional metabolic and behavioural modifiable risk factors. However, other novel risk factors also appear to contribute. Targeting of these established and novel risk factors has the potential to reduce the burden of CVD in LMICs.

Absolute cardiovascular risk scores and medication use in rural India: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

We compared the performance of laboratory-based cardiovascular risk prediction tools in a low-income and middle-income country setting, and estimated the use of antihypertensive and lipid-lowering medications in those deemed at high risk of a cardiovascular event.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional study.

SETTING

The study population comprised adult residents (aged ≥18 years) of the Rishi Valley region located in Chittoor District, south-western Andhra Pradesh, India.

PARTICIPANTS

7935 participants were surveyed between 2012 and 2015. We computed the 10-year cardiovascular risk and undertook pair-to-pair analyses between various risk tools used to predict a fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular event (Framingham Risk Score (FRS), World Health Organization Risk Score (WHO-RS) and Australian Risk Score (ARS)), or a fatal cardiovascular event (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE-high and SCORE-low)). Concordance was assessed by ordinary least-products (OLP) regression (for risk score) and quadratic weighted kappa (κ_w, for risk category).

RESULTS

Of participants aged 35-74 years, 3.5% had prior cardiovascular disease. The relationships between risk scores were quasi-linear with good agreement between the FRS and ARS (OLP slope=0.96, κ_w=0.89). However, the WHO-RS underestimated cardiovascular risk compared with all other tools. Twenty per cent of participants had ≥20% risk of an event using the ARS; 5% greater than the FRS and nearly threefold greater than the WHO-RS. Similarly, 16% of participants had a risk score ≥5% using SCORE-high which was 6% greater than for SCORE-low. Overall, absolute cardiovascular risk increased with age and was greater in men than women. Only 9%-12% of those deemed 'high risk' were taking lipid-lowering or antihypertensive medication.

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiovascular risk prediction tools perform disparately in this setting of disadvantage. Few deemed at high risk were receiving the recommended treatment.

Applying systems thinking to identify enablers and challenges to scale-up interventions for hypertension and diabetes in low-income and middle-income countries: protocol for a longitudinal mixed-methods study

INTRODUCTION

There is an urgent need to reduce the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), particularly in low-and middle-income countries, where the greatest burden lies. Yet, there is little research concerning the specific issues involved in scaling up NCD interventions targeting low-resource settings. We propose to examine this gap in up to 27 collaborative projects, which were funded by the Global Alliance for Chronic Diseases (GACD) 2019 Scale Up Call, reflecting a total funding investment of approximately US$50 million. These projects represent diverse countries, contexts and adopt varied approaches and study designs to scale-up complex, evidence-based interventions to improve hypertension and diabetes outcomes. A systematic inquiry of these projects will provide necessary scientific insights into the enablers and challenges in the scale up of complex NCD interventions.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will apply systems thinking (a holistic approach to analyse the inter-relationship between constituent parts of scaleup interventions and the context in which the interventions are implemented) and adopt a longitudinal mixed-methods study design to explore the planning and early implementation phases of scale up projects. Data will be gathered at three time periods, namely, at planning (TP), initiation of implementation (T0) and 1-year postinitiation (T1). We will extract project-related data from secondary documents at TP and conduct multistakeholder qualitative interviews to gather data at T0 and T1. We will undertake descriptive statistical analysis of TP data and analyse T0 and T1 data using inductive thematic coding. The data extraction tool and interview guides were developed based on a literature review of scale-up frameworks.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The current protocol was approved by the Monash University Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC number 23482). Informed consent will be obtained from all participants. The study findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and more broadly through the GACD network.

A Meta-Analysis of Rupture Risk for Intracranial Aneurysms 10 mm or Less in Size Selected for Conservative Management Without Repair

BACKGROUND

Small unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs) are considered to have low risk of rupture. The proportion of UIAs measuring 10 mm or less in size that rupture when selected for conservative management without repair is not well known. The aim of this study is to determine the proportion of UIAs that rupture by size threshold from ≤10 to ≤3 mm when selected for management without repair and to determine the level of precision and sources of heterogeneity in the rupture risk estimate.

METHODS

This study was prospectively registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) (CRD42019121522). The Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science Core Collection, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched (inception to August 2020). Studies with longitudinal follow-up of patients with UIAs ( ≤10 mm to ≤3 mm) without endovascular or neurosurgical repair were eligible. We included studies, which provided details of aneurysm size and in which UIA rupture was reported as an outcome. The primary outcome of the pooled proportion of UIA rupture during follow-up was synthesized with random-effects meta-analysis; heterogeneity was explored using meta-regression.

RESULTS

A total of 31 studies that included 13,800 UIAs ≤10 mm in size were eligible for data synthesis. The pooled proportion of ≤10 mm UIAs that ruptured when managed without repair was 1.1% (95% CI 0.8-1.5; I 2 = 52.9%) over 3.7 years. Findings were consistent in sensitivity analyses at all the size stratified thresholds including ≤5 and ≤3 mm; rupture occurred in 1.0% (95% CI 0.8-1.3; I 2 = 0%) of 7,280 ≤5 mm UIAs and 0.8% (95% CI 0.4-1.5; I 2 = 0%) of 1,228 ≤3 mm UIAs managed without repair. In higher quality studies with lower risk of bias, rupture occurred in 1.8% (95% CI 1.5-2.0; I 2 = 0%) over 3.9 years. In meta-regression, aneurysm size, shape, anatomical location, and exposure to prior subarachnoid hemorrhage were not identified as sources of heterogeneity.

CONCLUSION

For every 1,000 UIAs that are 10 mm or less in size and selected for conservative management without repair, between 8 and 15 UIAs are estimated to rupture over 3.7 years. When stratified by size, these pooled rupture risk estimates are consistent and clinically applicable for ≤5 mm UIAs selected for management without repair.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/, identifier: CRD42019121522.

Abstract TMP11: Predictors Of Timely Treatment Of Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage - The Reddish Study

Background: Receiving early treatment for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) is associated with better outcomes for the patient. However, delays in treatment of aSAH are common but the causes are not well understood. We explored predictors of early treatment within 12.5 hours or 24 hours after aSAH.

Methods: Consecutive cases of confirmed first-ever aSAH were identified from two Australian tertiary referral centers between 2010 and 2016. We used medical and ambulance records to extract details of participants, including time from onset to definitive treatment of either endovascular coiling or neurosurgical clipping, demographics, severity of aSAH (modified Fisher grade; World Federation of Neurosurgeons Scale [WFNS]), risk factors, pre-hospital care, and presenting symptoms. Factors associated with treatment to secure the aneurysm within 12.5 hours or 24 hours on univariable logistic regression were entered into a multivariable model to identify factors independently associated with (odds ratio [OR], 95% CI) earlier treatment.

Results: Among 482 patients (mean [SD] age 54.1 [14.5]; 69.9% female) with aSAH, median (IQR) time to treatment was 19.4 (10.6, 31.0) hours, 30% were treated <12.5h and 62% were treated <24h from onset. In multivariable analyses (see figure), arriving by ambulance, urgent triage category (1-2) and severe aSAH (modified Fisher Scale 3-4) predicted treatment <12.5h and <24h. Less severe aSAH (WFNS score 1-3) and arriving overnight (11pm to 7am) were associated with treatment <24h. In contrast, people with no risk factors for aSAH (smoking, hypertension or alcohol use), presenting with a stiff neck or interfacility transfer more often had treatment ≥12.5h.

Conclusions: A substantial proportion of people after aSAH were not treated within timeframes associated with better outcomes. Recognition of the urgency and severity aSAH cases were associated with more timely treatment of aSAH.

Exploring Barriers to and Enablers of the Adoption of Information and Communication Technology for the Care of Older Adults With Chronic Diseases: Scoping Review

Background

Information and communication technology (ICT) offers considerable potential for supporting older adults in managing their health, including chronic diseases. However, there are mixed opinions about the benefits and effectiveness of ICT interventions for older adults with chronic diseases.

Objective

We aim to map the use of ICT interventions in health care and identified barriers to and enablers of its use among older adults with chronic disease.

Methods

A scoping review was conducted using 5 databases (Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, PsycINFO, and ProQuest) to identify eligible articles from January 2000 to July 2020. Publications incorporating the use of ICT interventions, otherwise known as eHealth, such as mobile health, telehealth and telemedicine, decision support systems, electronic health records, and remote monitoring in people aged ≥55 years with chronic diseases were included. We conducted a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats framework analysis to explore the implied enablers of and barriers to the use of ICT interventions.

Results

Of the 1149 identified articles, 31 (2.7%; n=4185 participants) met the inclusion criteria. Of the 31 articles, 5 (16%) mentioned the use of various eHealth interventions. A range of technologies was reported, including mobile health (8/31, 26%), telehealth (7/31, 23%), electronic health record (2/31, 6%), and mixed ICT interventions (14/31, 45%). Various chronic diseases affecting older adults were identified, including congestive heart failure (9/31, 29%), diabetes (7/31, 23%), chronic respiratory disease (6/31, 19%), and mental health disorders (8/31, 26%). ICT interventions were all designed to help people self-manage chronic diseases and demonstrated positive effects. However, patient-related and health care provider–related challenges, in integrating ICT interventions in routine practice, were identified. Barriers to using ICT interventions in older adults included knowledge gaps, a lack of willingness to adopt new skills, and reluctance to use technologies. Implementation challenges related to ICT interventions such as slow internet connectivity and lack of an appropriate reimbursement policy were reported. Advantages of using ICT interventions include their nonpharmacological nature, provision of health education, encouragement for continued physical activity, and maintenance of a healthy diet. Participants reported that the use of ICT was a fun and effective way of increasing their motivation and supporting self-management tasks. It gave them reassurance and peace of mind by promoting a sense of security and reducing anxiety.

Conclusions

ICT interventions have the potential to support the care of older adults with chronic diseases. However, they have not been effectively integrated with routine health care. There is a need to improve awareness and education about ICT interventions among those who could benefit from them, including older adults, caregivers, and health care providers. More sustainable funding is required to promote the adoption of ICT interventions. We recommend involving clinicians and caregivers at the time of designing ICT interventions.