Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality burden of non-COVID-19 lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are a major global contributor to morbidity and mortality. In 2020-21, non-pharmaceutical interventions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic reduced not only the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but also the transmission of other LRI pathogens. Tracking LRI incidence and mortality, as well as the pathogens responsible, can guide health-system responses and funding priorities to reduce future burden. We present estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 of the burden of non-COVID-19 LRIs and corresponding aetiologies from 1990 to 2021, inclusive of pandemic effects on the incidence and mortality of select respiratory viruses, globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, incidence, and aetiology attribution for LRI, defined by the GBD as pneumonia or bronchiolitis, not inclusive of COVID-19. We analysed 26 259 site-years of mortality data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate LRI mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as household surveys, hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and LRI mortality estimates, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence and prevalence using DisMod-MR 2.1. For aetiology estimation, we analysed multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature data using a network analysis model to produce the proportion of LRI deaths and episodes attributable to the following pathogens: Acinetobacter baumannii, Chlamydia spp, Enterobacter spp, Escherichia coli, fungi, group B streptococcus, Haemophilus influenzae, influenza viruses, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Legionella spp, Mycoplasma spp, polymicrobial infections, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and other viruses (ie, the aggregate of all viruses studied except influenza and RSV), as well as a residual category of other bacterial pathogens.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2021, we estimated 344 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 325-364) incident episodes of LRI, or 4350 episodes (4120-4610) per 100 000 population, and 2·18 million deaths (1·98-2·36), or 27·7 deaths (25·1-29·9) per 100 000. 502 000 deaths (406 000-611 000) were in children younger than 5 years, among which 254 000 deaths (197 000-320 000) occurred in countries with a low Socio-demographic Index. Of the 18 modelled pathogen categories in 2021, S pneumoniae was responsible for the highest proportions of LRI episodes and deaths, with an estimated 97·9 million (92·1-104·0) episodes and 505 000 deaths (454 000-555 000) globally. The pathogens responsible for the second and third highest episode counts globally were other viral aetiologies (46·4 million [43·6-49·3] episodes) and Mycoplasma spp (25·3 million [23·5-27·2]), while those responsible for the second and third highest death counts were S aureus (424 000 [380 000-459 000]) and K pneumoniae (176 000 [158 000-194 000]). From 1990 to 2019, the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate declined by 41·7% (35·9-46·9), from 56·5 deaths (51·3-61·9) to 32·9 deaths (29·9-35·4) per 100 000. From 2019 to 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic and implementation of associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, we estimated a 16·0% (13·1-18·6) decline in the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate, largely accounted for by a 71·8% (63·8-78·9) decline in the number of influenza deaths and a 66·7% (56·6-75·3) decline in the number of RSV deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing LRI mortality, but the burden remains high, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, with its associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, global incident LRI cases and mortality attributable to influenza and RSV declined substantially. Expanding access to health-care services and vaccines, including S pneumoniae, H influenzae type B, and novel RSV vaccines, along with new low-cost interventions against S aureus, could mitigate the LRI burden and prevent transmission of LRI-causing pathogens.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care (UK).

Impact of COVID-19 vaccination on liver transplant recipients. Experience in a reference center in Mexico

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

COVID-19 vaccination has proved to be effective to prevent symptomatic infection and severe disease even in immunocompromised patients including liver transplant patients. We aim to assess the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on the mortality and development of severe and critical disease in our center.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of LT patients in a reference center between March 2020 and February 2022. Demographic data, cirrhosis etiology, time on liver transplantation, immunosuppressive therapies, and vaccination status were recorded at the time of diagnosis. Primary outcome was death due to COVID-19, and secondary outcomes included the development of severe COVID-19 and intensive care unit (ICU) requirement.

RESULTS

153 of 324 LT recipients developed COVID-19, in whom the main causes of cirrhosis were HCV infection and metabolic-associated fatty liver disease. The vaccines used were BNT162b2 (48.6%), ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (21.6%), mRNA-1273 vaccine (1.4%), Sputnik V (14.9%), Ad5-nCoV-S (4.1%) and CoronaVac (9.5%). Case fatality and ICU requirement risk were similar among vaccinated and unvaccinated LT patients (adjusted relative case fatality for vaccinated versus unvaccinated of 0.68, 95% CI 0.14-3.24, p = 0.62; adjusted relative risk [aRR] for ICU requirement of 0.45, 95% CI 0.11-1.88, p = 0.27). Nonetheless, vaccination was associated with a lower risk of severe disease (aRR for severe disease of 0.32, 95% CI 0.14-0.71, p = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccination reduces the risk of severe COVID-19 in LT patients, regardless of the scheme used. Vaccination should be encouraged for all.

Is iron overload associated with worse outcomes in patients with chronic liver disease undergoing liver transplantation?

Background

Iron overload is frequent in patients with chronic liver disease, associated with shorter survival after liver transplantation in patients with hereditary hemochromatosis. Its effect on patients without hereditary hemochromatosis is unclear. The aim of the study was to study the clinical impact of iron overload in patients who underwent liver transplantation at an academic tertiary referral center.

Methods

We performed a retrospective cohort study including all patients without hereditary hemochromatosis who underwent liver transplantation from 2015 to 2017 at an academic tertiary referral center in Mexico City. Explant liver biopsies were reprocessed to obtain the histochemical hepatic iron index, considering a score ≥ 0.15 as iron overload. Baseline characteristics were compared between patients with and without iron overload. Survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, compared with the log-rank test and the Cox proportional hazards model.

Results

Of 105 patients included, 45% had iron overload. Viral and metabolic etiologies, alcohol consumption, and obesity were more frequent in patients with iron overload than in those without iron overload (43% vs. 21%, 32% vs. 22%, p = 0.011; 34% vs. 9%, p = 0.001; and 32% vs. 12%, p = 0.013, respectively). Eight patients died within 90 days after liver transplantation (one with iron overload). Complication rate was higher in patients with iron overload versus those without iron overload (223 vs. 93 events/100 personmonths; median time to any complication of 2 vs. 3 days, p = 0.043), without differences in complication type. Fatality rate was lower in patients with iron overload versus those without iron overload (0.7 vs. 4.5 deaths/100 person-months, p = 0.055).

Conclusion

Detecting iron overload might identify patients at risk of early complications after liver transplantation. Further studies are required to understand the role of iron overload in survival.

Relationship between sex, body size, and cardiac resynchronization therapy benefit: A patient-level meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND

Women might benefit more than men from cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) and do so at shorter QRS durations.

OBJECTIVE

This meta-analysis was performed to determine whether sex-based differences in CRT effects are better accounted for by height, body surface area (BSA), or left ventricular end-diastolic dimension (LVEDD).

METHODS

We analyzed patient-level data from CRT trials (MIRACLE, MIRACLE ICD, MIRACLE ICD II, REVERSE, RAFT, COMPANION, and MADIT-CRT) using bayesian hierarchical Weibull regression models. Relationships between QRS duration and CRT effects were examined overall and in sex-stratified cohorts; additional analyses indexed QRS duration by height, BSA, or LVEDD. End points were heart failure hospitalization (HFH) or death and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Compared with men (n = 5628), women (n = 1439) were shorter (1.62 [interquartile range, 1.57-1.65] m vs 1.75 [1.70-1.80] m; P < .001), with smaller BSAs (1.76 [1.62-1.90] m2 vs 2.02 [1.89-2.16] m2; P < .001). In adjusted sex-stratified analyses, the reduction in HFH or death was greater for women (hazard ratio, 0.54; credible interval, 0.42-0.70) than for men (hazard ratio, 0.77; credible interval, 0.66-0.89; Pinteraction = .009); results were similar for all-cause mortality even after adjustment for height, BSA, and LVEDD. Sex-specific differences were observed only in nonischemic cardiomyopathy. The effect of CRT on HFH or death was observed at a shorter QRS duration for women (126 ms) than for men (145 ms). Indexing QRS duration by height, BSA, or LVEDD attenuated sex-specific QRS duration thresholds for the effects of CRT on HFH or death but not on mortality.

CONCLUSION

Although body size partially explains sex-specific QRS duration thresholds for CRT benefit, it is not associated with the magnitude of CRT benefit. Indexing QRS duration for body size might improve selection of patients for CRT, particularly with a "borderline" QRS duration.

CLINICALTRIALS

GOV REGISTRATION

NCT00271154, NCT00251251, NCT00267098, NCT00180271.

Benefit of cardiac resynchronization therapy among older patients: A patient-level meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) reduces heart failure hospitalizations (HFH) and mortality for guideline-indicated patients with heart failure (HF). Most patients with HF are aged ≥70 years but such patients are often under-represented in randomized trials.

METHODS

Patient-level data were combined from 8 randomized trials published 2002-2013 comparing CRT to no CRT (n = 6,369). The effect of CRT was estimated using an adjusted Bayesian survival model. Using age as a categorical (<70 vs ≥70 years) or continuous variable, the interaction between age and CRT on the composite end point of HFH or all-cause mortality or all-cause mortality alone was assessed.

RESULTS

The median age was 67 years with 2436 (38%) being 70+; 1,554 (24%) were women; 2,586 (41%) had nonischemic cardiomyopathy and median QRS duration was 160 ms. Overall, CRT was associated with a delay in time to the composite end point (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.75, 95% credible interval [CI] 0.66-0.85, P = .002) and all-cause mortality alone (aHR of 0.80, 95% CI 0.69-0.96, P = .017). When age was treated as a categorical variable, there was no interaction between age and the effect of CRT for either end point (P > .1). When age was treated as a continuous variable, older patients appeared to obtain greater benefit with CRT for the composite end point (P for interaction = .027) with a similar but nonsignificant trend for mortality (P for interaction = .35).

CONCLUSION

Reductions in HFH and mortality with CRT are as great or greater in appropriately indicated older patients. Age should not be a limiting factor for the provision of CRT.

Posttransplantation diabetes mellitus after liver transplant and the impact of family history of diabetes in a Mexican cohort

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS

Posttransplantation diabetes mellitus (PTDM) is a serious long-term complication that has a negative impact on graft and patient survival. The purpose of the present study was to describe the incidence of PTDM in a Mexican cohort and evaluate its association with a previous family history of diabetes (FHD).

METHODS

A retrospective single-center cohort study was conducted on patients undergoing liver transplantation (LT). The primary outcome was time from LT to PTDM. The diagnosis of PTDM was established using the ADA criteria. A mediation analysis that used adjusted Cox regression models and considered pretransplant prediabetes a mediator was performed, to determine the total effect and direct effect of FHD on PTDM.

RESULTS

A total of 152 patients were included, with a median follow-up time of 41 months; 19.2% (n = 29) had pretransplant diabetes. During the follow-up time, 15% of patients developed PTDM (n = 23), with an incidence rate of 4.71 cases/100 person-years. PTDM was significantly higher in patients with FHD, compared with those with no FHD (8.72 cases/100 person-years vs 2.04 cases/100 person-years, respectively; p = 0.001). The adjusted hazard ratio of PTDM for FHD was 4.14 (95% CI 1.60-10.7), p = 0.005) and 3.48 (95% CI 1.35-9.01, p = 0.010), when further controlled for pretransplant prediabetes.

CONCLUSION

The occurrence of PTDM was similar to that reported in most international studies. As with type 2 diabetes, family history plays an important role in the development of PTDM, even after accounting for pretransplant prediabetes. Patients with FHD should undergo a stricter metabolic program.

Comorbidities and clinical response to cardiac resynchronization therapy: patient-level meta-analysis from eight clinical trials

AIMS

Patients with heart failure usually have several other medical conditions that might alter the effects of interventions. We investigated whether the burden of comorbidity modified the clinical response to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Original patient-level data from eight randomized trials exploring the effects of CRT versus no CRT were pooled (BLOCK-HF, MIRACLE, MIRACLE-ICD, MIRACLE-ICD II, RAFT, COMPANION, MADIT-CRT and REVERSE). A prior history of the following comorbidities was considered: episodic or persistent atrial fibrillation (n = 920), coronary artery disease (n = 3732), diabetes (n = 2171), and hypertension (n = 3353). Patients were classified into three groups based on the number of comorbidities: 0, 1-2, or ≥3. The outcomes of interest were time to all-cause mortality and time to the composite outcome of heart failure hospitalization (HFH) or all-cause mortality. Outcomes were evaluated within each comorbidity group using a Bayesian hierarchical Weibull survival regression model. Of 6324 patients, 970 (15%) had no comorbidities, 4052 (64%) had 1-2 and 1302 (21%) had ≥3 comorbidities. The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for CRT versus no CRT for all-cause mortality in the overall cohort was 0.79 (95% credible interval [CI] 0.68-0.93) (p = 0.010); for no comorbidities the aHR was 0.54 (95% CI 0.34-0.86), for 1-2 comorbidities was 0.81 (95% CI 0.67-0.97) and for ≥3 comorbidities was 0.83 (95% CI 0.64-1.07) (no significant interaction between CRT and comorbidity burden: p = 0.13). For the endpoint of HFH or all-cause mortality, the aHR for the overall cohort was 0.74 (95% CI 0.65-0.84) (p = 0.001), for no comorbidities was 0.69 (95% CI 0.50-0.94), for 1-2 comorbidities was 0.77 (95% CI 0.66-0.90) and for ≥3 comorbidities was 0.68 (95% CI 0.55-0.82) (no significant interaction between CRT and comorbidity burden: p = 0.081).

CONCLUSION

In a meta-analysis of patient-level data from eight major trials, the totality of evidence suggests that CRT reduces HFH and/or all-cause mortality even when several comorbid diseases are present.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT00271154, NCT00251251, NCT00267098, NCT00180271.

The burden of antimicrobial resistance in the Americas in 2019: a cross-country systematic analysis

Background

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an urgent global health challenge and a critical threat to modern health care. Quantifying its burden in the WHO Region of the Americas has been elusive-despite the region's long history of resistance surveillance. This study provides comprehensive estimates of AMR burden in the Americas to assess this growing health threat.

Methods

We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with AMR for 23 bacterial pathogens and 88 pathogen-drug combinations for countries in the WHO Region of the Americas in 2019. We obtained data from mortality registries, surveillance systems, hospital systems, systematic literature reviews, and other sources, and applied predictive statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all countries in the Americas. Five broad components were the backbone of our approach: the number of deaths where infection had a role, the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of pathogens resistant to an antibiotic class, and the excess risk of mortality (or duration of an infection) associated with this resistance. We then used these components to estimate the disease burden by applying two counterfactual scenarios: deaths attributable to AMR (compared to an alternative scenario where resistant infections are replaced with susceptible ones), and deaths associated with AMR (compared to an alternative scenario where resistant infections would not occur at all). We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates as the 25th and 975th ordered values across 1000 posterior draws, and models were cross-validated for out-of-sample predictive validity.

Findings

We estimated 569,000 deaths (95% UI 406,000-771,000) associated with bacterial AMR and 141,000 deaths (99,900-196,000) attributable to bacterial AMR among the 35 countries in the WHO Region of the Americas in 2019. Lower respiratory and thorax infections, as a syndrome, were responsible for the largest fatal burden of AMR in the region, with 189,000 deaths (149,000-241,000) associated with resistance, followed by bloodstream infections (169,000 deaths [94,200-278,000]) and peritoneal/intra-abdominal infections (118,000 deaths [78,600-168,000]). The six leading pathogens (by order of number of deaths associated with resistance) were Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Acinetobacter baumannii. Together, these pathogens were responsible for 452,000 deaths (326,000-608,000) associated with AMR. Methicillin-resistant S. aureus predominated as the leading pathogen-drug combination in 34 countries for deaths attributable to AMR, while aminopenicillin-resistant E. coli was the leading pathogen-drug combination in 15 countries for deaths associated with AMR.

Interpretation

Given the burden across different countries, infectious syndromes, and pathogen-drug combinations, AMR represents a substantial health threat in the Americas. Countries with low access to antibiotics and basic health-care services often face the largest age-standardised mortality rates associated with and attributable to AMR in the region, implicating specific policy interventions. Evidence from this study can guide mitigation efforts that are tailored to the needs of each country in the region while informing decisions regarding funding and resource allocation. Multisectoral and joint cooperative efforts among countries will be a key to success in tackling AMR in the Americas.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund.

Cardiac resynchronization therapy in patients with a prior history of atrial fibrillation: Insights from four major clinical trials

AIMS

To investigate the association of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) on outcomes among participants with and without a history of atrial fibrillation (AF).

METHODS

Individual-patient-data from four randomized trials investigating CRT-Defibrillators (COMPANION, MADIT-CRT, REVERSE) or CRT-Pacemakers (COMPANION, MIRACLE) were analyzed. Outcomes were time to a composite of heart failure hospitalization or all-cause mortality or to all-cause mortality alone. The association of CRT on outcomes for patients with and without a history of AF was assessed using a Bayesian-Weibull survival regression model adjusting for baseline characteristics.

RESULTS

Of 3964 patients included, 586 (14.8%) had a history of AF; 2245 (66%) were randomized to CRT. Overall, CRT reduced the risk of the primary composite endpoint (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.69, 95% credible interval [CI]: 0.56-0.81). The effect was similar (posterior probability of no interaction = 0.26) in patients with (HR: 0.78, 95% CI: 0.55-1.10) and without a history of AF (HR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.55-0.80). In these four trials, CRT did not reduce mortality overall (HR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.66-1.01) without evidence of interaction (posterior probability of no interaction = 0.14) for patients with (HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 0.70-1.74) or without a history of AF (HR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.60-0.97).

CONCLUSION

The association of CRT on the composite endpoint or mortality was not statistically different for patients with or without a history of AF, but this could reflect inadequate power. Our results call for trials to confirm the benefit of CRT recipients with a history of AF.

Outcomes of Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy by New York Heart Association Class: A Patient-Level Meta-Analysis

Data on the benefits of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) in patients with severe heart failure (HF) symptoms are limited. We investigated the relative effects of CRT in patients with ambulatory NYHA IV vs. III functional class at the time of device implantation. In this meta-analysis, we pooled patient-level data from the MIRACLE, MIRACLE-ICD, and COMPANION trials. Outcomes evaluated were time to the composite endpoint of first HF hospitalization (HFH) or all-cause mortality and time to all-cause mortality alone. The association between CRT and outcomes was evaluated using a Bayesian Hierarchical Weibull survival regression model. We assessed if this association differs between NYHA III and IV groups by adding an interaction term between CRT and NYHA class as a random effect. A sensitivity analysis was performed by including data from the RAFT trial. Our pooled analysis included 2309 patients. Overall, CRT was associated with a longer time to HFH or all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.79, 95%CI 0.64 - 0.99, p = 0.044), with a similar association with time to all-cause mortality (aHR 0.78, 95% CI 0.59 - 1.03, p = 0.083). Associations of CRT with outcomes were not significantly different for those in NYHA III and IV classes (ratio of aHR 0.72, 95% CI 0.30 - 1.27, p = 0.23 for HFH/mortality; ratio of aHR 0.70, 95% CI 0.35 - 1.34, p = 0.27 for all-cause mortality alone). The sensitivity analysis, including RAFT data, did not show a significant relative CRT benefit between NYHA III and IV classes. Overall, there was no significant difference in the association of CRT with either outcome for patients in NYHA functional class III compared with functional class IV.

Test sensitivity in a prospective cancer screening program: A critique of a common proxy measure

The true sensitivity of a cancer screening test, defined as the frequency with which the test returns a positive result if the cancer is present, is a key indicator of diagnostic performance. Given the challenges of directly assessing test sensitivity in a prospective screening program, proxy measures for true sensitivity are frequently reported. We call one such proxy empirical sensitivity, as it is given by the observed ratio of screen-detected cancers to the sum of screen-detected and interval cancers. In the setting of the canonical three-state Markov model for progression from preclinical onset to clinical diagnosis, we formulate a mathematical relationship for how empirical sensitivity varies with the screening interval and the mean preclinical sojourn time and identify conditions under which empirical sensitivity exceeds or falls short of true sensitivity. In particular, when the inter-screening interval is short relative to the mean sojourn time, empirical sensitivity tends to exceed true sensitivity, unless true sensitivity is high. The Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) has reported an estimate of 0.87 for the empirical sensitivity of digital mammography. We show that this corresponds to a true sensitivity of 0.82 under a mean sojourn time of 3.6 years estimated based on breast cancer screening trials. However, the BCSC estimate of empirical sensitivity corresponds to even lower true sensitivity under more contemporary, longer estimates of mean sojourn time. Consistently applied nomenclature that distinguishes empirical sensitivity from true sensitivity is needed to ensure that published estimates of sensitivity from prospective screening studies are properly interpreted.

Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy Improves Outcomes in Patients With Intraventricular Conduction Delay But Not Right Bundle Branch Block: A Patient-Level Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

BACKGROUND

Benefit from cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) varies by QRS characteristics; individual randomized trials are underpowered to assess benefit for relatively small subgroups.

METHODS

The authors analyzed patient-level data from pivotal CRT trials (MIRACLE [Multicenter InSync Randomized Clinical Evaluation], MIRACLE-ICD [Multicenter InSync ICD Randomized Clinical Evaluation], MIRACLE-ICD II [Multicenter InSync ICD Randomized Clinical Evaluation II], REVERSE [Resynchronization Reverses Remodeling in Systolic Left Ventricular Dysfunction], RAFT [Resynchronization-Defibrillation for Ambulatory Heart Failure], BLOCK-HF [Biventricular Versus Right Ventricular Pacing in Heart Failure Patients with Atrioventricular Block], COMPANION [Comparison of Medical Therapy, Pacing and Defibrillation in Heart Failure], and MADIT-CRT [Multicenter Automatic Defibrillator Implantation Trial - Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy]) using Bayesian Hierarchical Weibull survival regression models to assess CRT benefit by QRS morphology (left bundle branch block [LBBB], n=4549; right bundle branch block [RBBB], n=691; and intraventricular conduction delay [IVCD], n=1024) and duration (with 150-ms partition). The continuous relationship between QRS duration and CRT benefit was also examined within subgroups defined by QRS morphology. The primary end point was time to heart failure hospitalization (HFH) or death; a secondary end point was time to all-cause death.

RESULTS

Of 6264 patients included, 25% were women, the median age was 66 [interquartile range, 58 to 73] years, and 61% received CRT (with or without an implantable cardioverter defibrillator). CRT was associated with an overall lower risk of HFH or death (hazard ratio [HR], 0.73 [credible interval (CrI), 0.65 to 0.84]), and in subgroups of patients with QRS ≥150 ms and either LBBB (HR, 0.56 [CrI, 0.48 to 0.66]) or IVCD (HR, 0.59 [CrI, 0.39 to 0.89]), but not RBBB (HR 0.97 [CrI, 0.68 to 1.34]; Pinteraction <0.001). No significant association for CRT with HFH or death was observed when QRS was <150 ms (regardless of QRS morphology) or in the presence of RBBB. Similar relationships were observed for all-cause death.

CONCLUSIONS

CRT is associated with reduced HFH or death in patients with QRS ≥150 ms and LBBB or IVCD, but not for those with RBBB. Aggregating RBBB and IVCD into a single "non-LBBB" category when selecting patients for CRT should be reconsidered.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov; Unique identifiers: NCT00271154, NCT00251251, NCT00267098, and NCT00180271.

Efficacy and safety of self-expanding metal stents in patients with inoperable esophageal cancer: a real-life study

Background

Dysphagia is the most frequent symptom in patients diagnosed with esophageal cancer. Self-expanding metal stents (SEMS) are the current palliative treatment of choice for dysphagia in patients with non-curable esophageal cancer. This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy and adverse events (AEs) of different types of SEMS for palliation of dysphagia.

Methods

We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with advanced esophageal cancer and SEMS placement for dysphagia palliation in a tertiary care center. The primary outcome was the clinical success defined as an improvement in dysphagia (reduction of at least 2 points in the Mellow-Pinkas scoring system for dysphagia) after SEMS placement.

Results

Between January 1999 and May 2020, 295 patients with esophageal cancer were identified. Among them, 75 had a SEMS placement for dysphagia palliation. The mean age of the patients was 61.3 years (standard deviation: 13.4), 69 patients (92%) were men, and the mean Mellow-Pinkas scoring for dysphagia pre- and post-SEMS placement were 3.1 and 1.4 (change from baseline -1.7), respectively. Technical success and clinical success were achieved in 98.6% and 58.9%, respectively. AEs were identified in 35/75 patients (46.7%), and SEMS migration was the most frequent AE in 22/75 patients (29.3%). There were no significant differences in improvement in dysphagia (p = 0.054), weight changes (p = 0.78), and AE (p = 0.73) among fully covered SEMS (fc-SEMS) and partially covered SEMS (pc-SEMS). The median follow-up was 89 days (interquartile range: 29-221).

Conclusion

SEMS placement was associated with a rapid improvement in dysphagia, high technical success, and a modest improvement in dysphagia with no major AE among fc-SEMS and pc-SEMS.

Effect of Mexico’s vaccination program on Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths among older adults in Mexico City

Objective. To characterize the impact of Mexico’s Co­vid-19 vaccination campaign of older adults. Materials and methods. We estimated the absolute change in sympto­matic cases, hospitalizations and deaths for vaccine-eligible adults (aged >60 years) and the relative change compared to vaccine-ineligible groups since the campaign started. Re­sults. By May 3, 2021, the odds of Covid-19 cases among adults over 60 compared to 50-59 year olds decreased by 60.3% (95%CI: 53.1, 66.9), and 2 003 cases (95%CI: 1 156, 3 130) were avoided. Hospitalizations and deaths showed similar trends. Conclusions. Covid-19 events decreased after vaccine rollout among those eligible for vaccination.

Cardiac resynchronization therapy in patients with a history of atrial fibrillation: insights from five major clinical trials

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute

Background

Many patients with heart failure who are considered for cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) have a history of (h/o) atrial fibrillation (AF) but there are doubts about the efficacy of CRT in patients with AF.

Purpose

To investigate the association of CRT on morbidity and mortality among patients with and without a h/o AF.

Methods

Original, patient-level data from five clinical trials of CRT that permitted enrolment of patients with a h/o AF were included: COMPANION, MADIT-CRT, BLOCK HF, REVERSE, and MIRACLE trial. Patients with permanent or persistent AF were excluded from these trials, and therefore from this analysis. The outcomes of interest were the composite endpoint of time to heart failure hospitalization (HFH) or all-cause mortality or all-cause mortality alone. The association of CRT (versus no CRT) with outcomes for patients with and without a h/o AF was assessed using a Bayesian-Weibull survival regression model with random terms for the trial-specific treatment effects and the trial-specific baseline hazard functions including an interaction between history of paroxysmal AF and CRT. All results are presented as hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% posterior credible intervals (CIs) and posterior probabilities of no association, adjusting for baseline characteristics.

Results

A total of 4062 patients were included, 661 (16.3%) of whom had a h/o AF. Patients with a h/o AF were older (mean [SD] age 68 [10] years versus 64 [11] years) and had a higher proportion of ischemic cardiomyopathy (67% versus 53%, p&lt;0.001), a higher baseline serum creatinine (1.3 mg/dl versus 1.2 mg/dl, p&lt;0.001), and a lower left ventricular ejection fraction (25% versus 26%, p&lt;0.001). The HRs for all outcomes and the interaction term are shown in Table 1. For the overall population, CRT delayed the time to HFH or all-cause mortality (HR: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.62 – 0.87, p=0.005); for patients with a h/o AF, it did not (HR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.64 to 1.19, p=0.37). In this patient-level meta-analysis, CRT was not associated with a reduction in mortality, overall or by h/o AF. Howevber, the interaction (estimate shown as a ratio of HRs) between those with or without a h/o AF and the effects of CRT was not significant for either outcome (Table 1).

Conclusion

In the largest post hoc analysis to date, we confirm the benefits of CRT in patients without a h/o AF in reducing HFH or mortality. There was no statistically significant interaction between CRT and h/o AF for any analysed outcome.

Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance in 2019: a systematic analysis

BACKGROUND

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a major threat to human health around the world. Previous publications have estimated the effect of AMR on incidence, deaths, hospital length of stay, and health-care costs for specific pathogen-drug combinations in select locations. To our knowledge, this study presents the most comprehensive estimates of AMR burden to date.

METHODS

We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with bacterial AMR for 23 pathogens and 88 pathogen-drug combinations in 204 countries and territories in 2019. We obtained data from systematic literature reviews, hospital systems, surveillance systems, and other sources, covering 471 million individual records or isolates and 7585 study-location-years. We used predictive statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all locations, including for locations with no data. Our approach can be divided into five broad components: number of deaths where infection played a role, proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antibiotic of interest, and the excess risk of death or duration of an infection associated with this resistance. Using these components, we estimated disease burden based on two counterfactuals: deaths attributable to AMR (based on an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections were replaced by drug-susceptible infections), and deaths associated with AMR (based on an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections were replaced by no infection). We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates as the 25th and 975th ordered values across 1000 posterior draws, and models were cross-validated for out-of-sample predictive validity. We present final estimates aggregated to the global and regional level.

FINDINGS

On the basis of our predictive statistical models, there were an estimated 4·95 million (3·62-6·57) deaths associated with bacterial AMR in 2019, including 1·27 million (95% UI 0·911-1·71) deaths attributable to bacterial AMR. At the regional level, we estimated the all-age death rate attributable to resistance to be highest in western sub-Saharan Africa, at 27·3 deaths per 100 000 (20·9-35·3), and lowest in Australasia, at 6·5 deaths (4·3-9·4) per 100 000. Lower respiratory infections accounted for more than 1·5 million deaths associated with resistance in 2019, making it the most burdensome infectious syndrome. The six leading pathogens for deaths associated with resistance (Escherichia coli, followed by Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumannii, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa) were responsible for 929 000 (660 000-1 270 000) deaths attributable to AMR and 3·57 million (2·62-4·78) deaths associated with AMR in 2019. One pathogen-drug combination, meticillin-resistant S aureus, caused more than 100 000 deaths attributable to AMR in 2019, while six more each caused 50 000-100 000 deaths: multidrug-resistant excluding extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis, third-generation cephalosporin-resistant E coli, carbapenem-resistant A baumannii, fluoroquinolone-resistant E coli, carbapenem-resistant K pneumoniae, and third-generation cephalosporin-resistant K pneumoniae.

INTERPRETATION

To our knowledge, this study provides the first comprehensive assessment of the global burden of AMR, as well as an evaluation of the availability of data. AMR is a leading cause of death around the world, with the highest burdens in low-resource settings. Understanding the burden of AMR and the leading pathogen-drug combinations contributing to it is crucial to making informed and location-specific policy decisions, particularly about infection prevention and control programmes, access to essential antibiotics, and research and development of new vaccines and antibiotics. There are serious data gaps in many low-income settings, emphasising the need to expand microbiology laboratory capacity and data collection systems to improve our understanding of this important human health threat.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the clinical training of last year medical students in Mexico: a cross-sectional nationwide study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought unprecedented changes to medical education. However, no data are available regarding the impact the pandemic may have on medical training in Mexico. The aim of our study was to evaluate and identify the medical school students' perceptions of the changes in their clinical training due to the pandemic in Mexico.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study where a previous validated online survey was translated and adapted by medical education experts and applied to senior medical students from March to April of 2021. The 16-item questionnaire was distributed online combining dichotomous, multiple-choice, and 5-point Likert response scale questions. Descriptive and multivariate analyses were performed to compare the student's perceptions between public and private schools.

RESULTS

A total of 671 responses were included in the study period. Most participants were from public schools (81%) and female (61%). Almost every respondent (94%) indicated it was necessary to obtain COVID-19 education, yet only half (54%) received such training. Students in private schools were less likely to have their clinical instruction canceled (53% vs. 77%, p = 0.001) and more likely to have access to virtual instruction (46% vs. 22%, p = 0.001) when compared to students from public schools. Four out of every five students considered their training inferior to that of previous generations, and most students (82%) would consider repeating their final year of clinical training.

CONCLUSIONS

The impact of the COVID-19 on medical education in Mexico has been significant. Most final-year medical students have been affected by the cancellation of their in-person clinical instruction, for which the majority would consider repeating their final year of training. Efforts to counterbalance this lack of clinical experience with virtual or simulation instruction are needed.

Cirrhosis etiology trends in developing countries: Transition from infectious to metabolic conditions. Report from a multicentric cohort in central Mexico

Background

Cirrhosis is a public health threat associated with high mortality. Alcoholic Liver Disease (ALD) is the leading cause in Latin America and Metabolic Associated Fatty Liver Disease (MAFLD) in western countries. In Mexico, ALD and chronic Hepatitis C Virus infection (HCV) were the most frequent aetiologies during the past decades. We aimed to describe the trends in the aetiologies of cirrhosis in a middle-income country.

Methods

We performed a retrospective cohort study including patients diagnosed with cirrhosis between 2000 and 2019 from six different tertiary care hospitals in central Mexico. We collected information regarding cirrhosis etiology, year of diagnosis, hepatocellular carcinoma development, liver transplantation, and death. We illustrated the change in the tendencies of cirrhosis aetiologies by displaying the proportional incidence of each etiology over time stratified by age and gender, and we compared these proportions over time using chi square tests.

Findings

Overall, 4,584 patients were included. In 2019, MAFLD was the most frequent cirrhosis etiology (30%), followed by ALD (24%) and HCV (23%). During the study period, MAFLD became the leading etiology, ALD remained second, and HCV passed from first to fourth. When analysed by gender, ALD was the leading etiology for men and MAFLD for women. The annual incidence of HCC was 3·84 cases/100 persons-year, the median survival after diagnosis was 12·1 years, and seven percent underwent LT.

Interpretation

Increased alcohol consumption and the obesity epidemic have caused a transition in the aetiologies of cirrhosis in Mexico. Public health policies must be tailored accordingly to mitigate the burden of alcohol and metabolic conditions in developing countries.

Funding

None.

Transplant trends in Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic: Disparities within healthcare sectors

Healthcare systems worldwide were challenged during the COVID-19 pandemic. In Mexico, the public hospitals that perform most transplants were adapted to provide care for COVID-19 patients. Using a nationwide database, we describe the first report of the impact of COVID-19 and related transplantation healthcare policies in a middle-income country by comparing statistics before and during the pandemic (pre-COVID: March 2019-February 2020 vs. COVID era: March 2020-February 2021) and by type of institution (public vs. private). The global reduction in transplantation was higher in public institutions compared with private institutions, 89% versus 62%, respectively, p < .001. When analyzing by organ, kidney transplantation decreased by 89% at public versus 57% at private, p < .001; cornea by 88% at public versus 64% at private, p < .001; liver by 88% at public versus 35% at private, p < .001; and heart by 88% in public versus 67% at private institutions, p = .4. The COVID-19 pandemic along with the implemented health policies were associated with a decrease in donations, waiting list additions, and a decrease in transplantation, particularly at public institutions, which care for the most vulnerable.

One-year outcome of patients with cirrhosis who developed spontaneous bacterial empyema: A cohort study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate outcomes in cirrhotic patients diagnosed with spontaneous bacterial empyema (SBE) compared with those without this complication.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of cirrhotic patients from a tertiary care center. The primary outcome was time to death or liver transplantation (LT) within one year after diagnosis of infection. We integrated three groups: patients with SBE (group A), patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP; group B), and cirrhotic patients without SBP or SBE (group C), matched by age, model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) score and year of infection. Outcomes were analyzed using a Cox regression model adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors and MELD-Na score.

RESULTS

Between January 1999 and February 2019, 4829 cirrhotic patients were identified. Among them, 73 (1.5%) had hepatic hydrotorax, of whom 22 (30.1%) were diagnosed with SBE. Median age in group A was 58 years, 50% were men, and median MELD-Na was 21.5. Compared with group C, the hazard ratio of death or LT during the first year after infection was 2.98 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.43-6.22, P = 0.004) for group A and 1.23 (95% CI 0.65-2.32, P = 0.522) for group B.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that patients with SBE have a worse outcome during the first year after infection is diagnosed. Patients who develop SBE should be promptly referred for transplant evaluation. SBE may emerge as new indication that could benefit from MELD exception points.

Causes of erythrocytosis and its impact as a risk factor for thrombosis according to etiology: experience in a referral center in Mexico City

Background

Thrombotic events are well documented in primary erythrocytosis, but it is uncertain if secondary etiologies increase the risk of thrombosis. This study aimed to determine the causes of erythrocytosis and to identify its impact as a risk factor for thrombosis.

Methods

Data were obtained from patients with erythrocytosis between 2000 and 2017 at a referral hospital in Mexico City. Erythrocytosis was defined according to the 2016 WHO classification. Time to thrombosis, major bleeding, or death were compared among groups of patients defined by the etiology of erythrocytosis using a Cox regression model, adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors.

Results

In total, 330 patients with erythrocytosis were studied. The main etiologies of erythrocytosis were obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in 29%, polycythemia vera (PV) in 18%, and chronic lung disease (CLD) in 9.4% of the patients. The incidence rate of thrombosis was significantly higher in patients with PV and CLD than that in patients with OSA (incidence rates of 4.51 and 6.24 vs. 1.46 cases per 100 person-years, P=0.009), as well as the mortality rate (mortality rates of 2.72 and 2.43 vs. 0.17 cases per 100 person-years, P =0.003).

Conclusion

The risk of thrombosis in CLD with erythrocytosis was comparable to that in patients with PV. Further larger-scale studies are needed to confirm these findings and evaluate the benefits of preventive management of COPD with erythrocytosis similar to PV.

Determination of bisphenols, parabens, and benzophenones in placenta by dispersive liquid-liquid microextraction and gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry

Human exposure to endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) is of particular concern during development. Bisphenols, parabens, and benzophenones are EDCs widely used in the manufacture of numerous goods, personal care products, and cosmetics. The aim of this study was to develop a new and practical method for determining three bisphenols, four parabens, and five benzophenones in placenta samples. It uses dispersive liquid-liquid microextraction (DLLME) in combination with gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (GC-MS/MS). Several chemometric approaches were employed to optimize the experimental parameters. Limits of detection ranged from 0.04 to 0.08 ng g^-1 and inter-day variabilities (evaluated as relative standard deviation) from 4.2% to 13.4%. The method was validated using matrix-matched standard calibration followed by a recovery assay with spiked samples. Recovery percentages ranged from 87.1% to 113.2%. Finally, the method was used to measure target compounds in 20 placental tissue samples from voluntary donors. This analytical procedure can provide information on the exposure of the fetus to non-persistent EDCs.

Adverse Effects Associated With the Use of Antimalarials During The COVID-19 Pandemic in a Tertiary Care Center in Mexico City

Background: Antimalarial drugs were widely used as experimental therapies against COVID-19 in the initial stages of the pandemic. Despite multiple randomized controlled trials demonstrating unfavorable outcomes in both efficacy and adverse effects, antimalarial drugs are still prescribed in developing countries, especially in those experiencing recurrent COVID-19 crises (India and Brazil). Therefore, real-life experience and pharmacovigilance studies describing the use and side effects of antimalarials for COVID-19 in developing countries are still relevant.

Objective: To describe the adverse effects associated with the use of antimalarial drugs in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia at a reference center in Mexico City.

Methods: We integrated a retrospective cohort with all adult patients hospitalized for COVID-19 pneumonia from March 13th, 2020, to May 17th, 2020. We compared the baseline characteristics (demographic and clinical) and the adverse effects between the groups of patients treated with and without antimalarial drugs. The mortality analysis was performed in 491 patients who received optimal care and were not transferred to other institutions (210 from the antimalarial group and 281 from the other group).

Results: We included 626 patients from whom 38% (n = 235) received an antimalarial drug. The mean age was 51.2 ± 13.6 years, and 64% were males. At baseline, compared with the group treated with antimalarials, the group that did not receive antimalarials had more dyspnea (82 vs. 73%, p = 0.017) and cyanosis (5.3 vs. 0.9%, p = 0.009), higher respiratory rate (median of 28 vs. 24 bpm, p < 0.001), and lower oxygen saturation (median of 83 vs. 87%, p < 0.001). In the group treated with antimalarials, 120 patients had two EKG evaluations, from whom 12% (n = 16) prolonged their QTc from baseline in more than 50 ms, and six developed a ventricular arrhythmia. Regarding the trajectories of the liver function tests over time, no significant differences were found for the change in the mean value per day between the two groups. Among patients who received optimal care, the mortality was 16% (33/210) in those treated with antimalarials and 15% (41/281) in those not receiving antimalarials (RR 1.08, 95% 0.75–1.64, and adjusted RR 1.12, 95% CI 0.69–1.82).

Conclusion: The adverse events in patients with COVID-19 treated with antimalarials were similar to those who did not receive antimalarials at institutions with rigorous pharmacological surveillance. However, they do not improve survival in patients who receive optimal medical care.

Direct-Acting Antivirals in the Treatment of Hepatitis C Virus Recurrence after Liver Transplantation: Real-life Experience in a Mexican Cohort

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is one of the most frequent causes of liver transplantation (LT) worldwide. Patients with HCV viremia at the time of LT universally develop recurrent HCV in the allograft, leading to accelerated fibrosis and graft loss. Treatment with direct-acting antivirals (DAA) is highly effective and safe in this population.

AIM OF THE STUDY

To describe the efficacy and safety of DAA in treating post LT HCV recurrence in a Mexican cohort.

METHODS

We designed a retrospective cohort study that included all LT patients from 2000-2019 with HCV recurrence after LT who received DAA. Clinical and biochemical characteristics were collected from clinical records. Patients who received treatment before LT and those who received interferon-based therapies after LT achieving sustained viral response at 12 weeks were excluded; patients who didn´t complete DAA therapy were eliminated. The primary outcome was SVR-12.

RESULTS

Fifty-six patients received DAA after the LT with 98% SVR-12. The most frequent genotypes were 1b (54%) and 1a (34%). The most common antiviral scheme used was sofosbuvir/ledipasvir for 12 weeks in 59% of the patients. No severe adverse effects were observed. Ribavirin was used in 82% of the patients, of which 23.9% had adverse effects, mostly mild. The median follow-up after LT was 55 months (IQR 43-51), with a global and graft survival at one and three years of 100%.

CONCLUSION

In a Mexican cohort, DAA therapy in LT patients with recurrence of HCV infection showed high efficacy and an acceptable safety profile.

Low Thoracic Skeletal Muscle Area Is Not Associated With Negative Outcomes in Patients With COVID-19

OBJECTIVE

Sarcopenia has been related to negative outcomes in different clinical scenarios from critical illness to chronic conditions. The aim of this study was to verify whether there was an association between low skeletal muscle index and in-hospital mortality, intensive care unit admission, and invasive mechanical ventilation need in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

DESIGN

This was a retrospective cohort study of a referral center for COVID-19. We included all consecutive patients admitted to the hospital between February 26 and May 15, 2020, with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19. Skeletal muscle index was assessed from a transverse computed tomography image at the level of twelfth thoracic vertebra with National Institutes of Health ImageJ software, and statistical analysis was performed to find an association between skeletal muscle index and in-hospital mortality, need of invasive mechanical ventilation, and intensive care unit admission.

RESULTS

We included 519 patients, the median age was 51 (42-61) yrs, and 115 patients (22%) had low skeletal muscle index. On multivariable analysis, skeletal muscle index was not associated with mortality, intensive care unit admission, or invasive mechanical ventilation need nor in a subanalysis of patients 65 yrs or older.

CONCLUSIONS

Skeletal muscle index determined by computed tomography at the level of twelfth thoracic vertebra was not associated with negative outcomes in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.