Informing the pandemic response: the role of the WHO's COVID-19 Weekly Epidemiological Update

On 31 December 2019, the Municipal Health Commission of Wuhan, China, reported a cluster of atypical pneumonia cases. On 5 January 2020, the WHO publicly released a Disease Outbreak News (DON) report, providing information about the pneumonia cases, implemented response interventions, and WHO's risk assessment and advice on public health and social measures. Following 9 additional DON reports and 209 daily situation reports, on 17 August 2020, WHO published the first edition of the COVID-19 Weekly Epidemiological Update (WEU). On 1 September 2023, the 158th edition of the WEU was published on WHO's website, marking its final issue. Since then, the WEU has been replaced by comprehensive global epidemiological updates on COVID-19 released every 4 weeks. During the span of its publication, the webpage that hosts the WEU and the COVID-19 Operational Updates was accessed annually over 1.4 million times on average, with visits originating from more than 100 countries. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the WEU process, from data collection to publication, focusing on the scope, technical details, main features, underlying methods, impact and limitations. We also discuss WHO's experience in disseminating epidemiological information on the COVID-19 pandemic at the global level and provide recommendations for enhancing collaboration and information sharing to support future health emergency responses.

Lessons from the first 6 years of an intervention-based field epidemiology training programme in Papua New Guinea, 2013-2018

Papua New Guinea (PNG) faces a critical shortage of human resources to address pressing public health challenges arising from an increasing burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases. PNG is an independent State in the Pacific and home to 8.2 million people. Resource and infrastructure constraints due to the country’s challenging geography have made it difficult and expensive to deliver health services and implement health programmes. The National Department of Health and its partners developed a field epidemiology training programme of Papua New Guinea (FETPNG) to strengthen the country’s public health workforce. The training programme covers field epidemiology competencies and includes the design, implementation and evaluation of evidence-based interventions by Fellows. From 2013 to 2018, FETPNG graduated 81 field epidemiologists. Most FETPNG graduates (84%) were from provincial or district health departments or organisations. Many of their intervention projects resulted in successful public health outcomes with tangible local impacts. Health challenges addressed included reducing the burden of multi-drug resistant-tuberculosis (TB), increasing immunisation coverage, screening and treating HIV/TB patients, and improving reproductive health outcomes. FETPNG Fellows and graduates have also evaluated disease surveillance systems and investigated disease outbreaks. Early and unwavering national ownership of FETPNG created a sustainable programme fitting the needs of this low-resource country. A focus on designing and implementing effective public health interventions not only provides useful skills to Fellows but also contributes to real-time, tangible and meaningful improvements in the health of the population. The graduates of FETPNG now provide a critical mass of public health practitioners across the country. Their skills in responding to outbreaks and public health emergencies, in collecting, analysing and interpreting data, and in designing, implementing and evaluating public health interventions continues to advance public health in PNG.

Survey of occupational fatigue in anaesthetists in Australia and New Zealand

Occupational fatigue in anaesthetists is recognised as a patient safety risk. Better understanding of the issues surrounding their fatigue is needed. This study aimed to ascertain the sources and effects of occupational fatigue amongst anaesthetists in Australia and New Zealand. An anonymous online survey was sent to 979 anaesthetists. The response rate was 38.0%. Most participants reported regularly working over 40 hours per week; men reported five more hours per week than women. Stated contributors to fatigue included long work hours, mental strain at work, and personal and family demands. Fatigue-related behaviour was reported more by men (OR [odds ratio]=2.6) and less by respondents reporting eight or more hours of sleep before work (OR=0.6). Reporting at least one instance of less than five hours off between shifts was predictive of falling asleep while administering an anaesthetic (OR=1.6). More data are required to support practices and policies that promote more time off between work periods and increased time for sleep to reduce risk of fatigue.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration.

METHODS

To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.

FINDINGS

Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100,000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery.

METHODS

We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990-2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values.

FINDINGS

292,982 (95% UI 261,017-327,792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376,034 (343,483-407,574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was -0·3% (-1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and -2·7% (-3·9 to -1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290-2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2-0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1-1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6-3·6) in Iceland.

INTERPRETATION

Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Influenza surveillance in the Pacific Island countries and territories during the 2009 pandemic: an observational study

Background

Historically, Pacific island countries and territories (PICTs) have been more severely affected by influenza pandemics than any other part of the world. We herein describe the emergence and epidemiologic characteristics of pandemic influenza H1N1 in PICTs from 2009 to 2010.

Methods

The World Health Organization gathered reports of influenza-like-illness and laboratory-confirmed pandemic H1N1 cases from all 23 Pacific island countries and territories, from April 2009 through August 2010. Data were gathered through weekly email reports from Pacific island countries and territories and through email or telephone follow-up.

Results

Pacific island countries and territories started detecting pandemic H1N1 cases in June 2009, firstly in French Polynesia, with the last new detection occurring in August 2009 in Tuvalu. Nineteen Pacific island countries and territories reported 1,972 confirmed cases, peaking in August 2009. No confirmed pandemic H1N1 cases were identified in Niue, Pitcairn and Tokelau; the latter instituted strict maritime quarantine. Influenza-like-illness surveillance showed trends similar to surveillance of confirmed cases.

Seven Pacific island countries and territories reported 21 deaths of confirmed pandemic H1N1. Case-patients died of acute respiratory distress syndrome or multi-organ failure, or both. The most reported pre-existing conditions were obesity, lung disease, heart disease, and pregnancy.

Pacific island countries and territories instituted a variety of mitigation measures, including arrival health screening. Multiple partners facilitated influenza preparedness planning and outbreak response.

Conclusions

Pandemic influenza spread rapidly throughout the Pacific despite enormous distances and relative isolation. Tokelau and Pitcairn may be the only jurisdictions to have remained pandemic-free. Despite being well-prepared, Pacific island countries and territories experienced significant morbidity and mortality, consistent with other indigenous and low-resource settings.

For the first time, regional influenza-like-illness surveillance was conducted in the Pacific, allowing health authorities to monitor the pandemic’s spread and severity in real-time.

Future regional outbreak responses will likely benefit from the lessons learned during this outbreak.

A large foodborne outbreak on a small Pacific island

On March 25, 2009, the Ebeye Leroj Kitlang Memorial Health Center on the island of Ebeye in the Republic of the Marshall Islands was overwhelmed with over 100 patients presenting for vomiting and diarrhea. Epidemiologic investigation revealed that there were 174 cases among 187 attendees at a local funeral earlier in the day. Most cases had eaten served sandwiches containing egg products that had undergone severe time-temperature abuse. While no causal agents were identified, the epidemiology and clinical presentation is compatible with foodborne toxins, most likely enterotoxins of either Staphylococcus aureus or Bacillus cereus. Mitigation measures undertaken by public health centered on education of food preparers and the general public regarding safe food preparation practices. This large outbreak serves to remind us that, while there are simple and highly effective measures to prevent such foodborne disease outbreaks, we in the public health sector have a duty to improve the community's knowledge and understanding of these measures.

Multi-drug resistant tuberculosis in Chuuk State Federated States of Micronesia, 2008-2009

Multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR TB) is a growing public health concern, particularly for the Pacific, where rates of tuberculosis infection are extremely high. In May 2008, a cluster of patients with MDR TB were identified in Chuuk State, Federated States of Micronesia. A multi-agency investigation led to the eventual discovery of 21 cases, and over 100 latent TB infections. Incomplete implementation of Directly Observed Therapy (DOT) and contact investigation were major contributors to the outbreak. The problem of MDR TB in Chuuk was controlled only after a concerted effort on the part of multiple agencies coupled with the highest level of political commitment.

Microphthalmia and anophthalmia in Chuuk State, Federated States of Micronesia

Microphthalmia ('small eye') and anophthalmia ('no eye') are rare congenital defects of eye development. Previous studies utilizing a variety of methodologies have estimated their combined incidence at anywhere from 4 to 30 cases per 100,000 live births. In Chuuk, Federated States of Micronesia, there have been 42 cases detected since 1988, yielding an estimated incidence of 140 cases per 100,000. A number of putative genetic and environmental causes have previously been associated with microphthalmia and anophthalmia, including vitamin A deficiency. To date, it is unclear which of these factors may play a role in the alarmingly high rates observed in Chuuk. The Chuuk Division of Public Health has proposed a study to explore these potential causes, which will hopefully shed light on the prevention of these rare but debilitating conditions.

Role of GIS technology during leprosy elimination efforts in Pohnpei

This article summarizes Pohnpei State Department of Health Services' utilization of GIS technology and GPS mapping of leprosy cases during the leprosy elimination efforts. Maps generated from ArcMap provided 'hotspots' or areas of high case density, thus providing for more focused screening. Introducing GIS technology in the elimination efforts has led to a diminution of the target number of screened clients per year, thus minimizing resource utilization. GPS technology as a health planning tool in small Pacific island countries can synergize local screening efforts and improve overall public health planning and implementation, in a way that is cost-effective and resource friendly.

Hepatitis A in Pohnpei State, Federated States of Micronesia, 2008-2009

An epidemic of infectious hepatitis caused by the hepatitis A virus was detected in Pohnpei State, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), beginning in November 2008. Epidemiologic investigation revealed that the index case occurred in late June 2008 in a traveler from nearby Chuuk State, which itself had experienced an epidemic of hepatitis A in the first half of 2008. Most cases have been confirmed by IgM serology, the rest by a clinically compatible syndrome with either jaundice or elevated liver enzymes. The most commonly affected group has been school-aged children; it is likely that the paucity of patients in the 40-50 year age group represents immunity conferred during the previous epidemic of hepatitis A in the early 1970's, as hepatitis A is not thought to be endemic in Pohnpei. As of September 17, 2009 there have been 300 reported cases with 17 hospitalizations (6%) and one death (0.3%). The epidemic peaked in April 2009, with a sharp decline in cases in June attributable with the end of the school year, as schools were found to be the major focus of infection. Efforts to control the outbreak have centered on public awareness and improved hygiene initiatives, particularly in schools. The greatest challenge to ongoing diminution of the outbreak is the recent resumption of the school year; control efforts, especially improved hygiene, will need to be sustained with renewed vigor if we are to extinguish the outbreak.

A Standardized Process for Developing a National Notifiable Diseases List in a Pacific Island Setting

The authors describe an adapted method, originally developed for infectious disease resource allocation, for prioritizing infectious diseases for inclusion in a Pacific island nation’s National Notifiable Diseases List. Using a process that was systematic, transparent, objective, and addressed multiple criteria, a panel of stakeholders judged candidate diseases against 12 objective criteria and arrived at weighted scores for the diseases, which were then ranked. The result was the successful creation of a list of 22 urgently notifiable conditions. However, the process was only incrementally more useful than the use of consensus, and certain anomalies necessitated a reality check and adjustment of the final results. The process described herein may be more useful in settings where there is wide disagreement among stakeholders; it also appears more useful for its original purpose—prioritizing public health resource allocation for infectious disease control. The modifications discussed may make it more relevant to notifiable disease selection.

Risk factors for prevalence of and mortality related to restriction on spirometry: findings from the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and follow-up

OBJECTIVE

To define risk factors for both restriction on spirometry and subsequent mortality in a national cohort of US adults.

METHODS

Participants in the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES I) were followed for up to 22 years. Subjects were classified using the forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), the forced vital capacity (FVC), and the FEV1/FVC ratio into subgroups with and without restriction on spirometry. Regression models were developed to determine risk factors for restriction on spirometry and death.

RESULTS

Our final cohort consisted of 4320 subjects, of whom 481 (10.3 weighted %) had restriction on spirometry. The largest risk factors for restriction on spirometry were a cardiothoracic ratio of >55% (OR 4.3, 95%CI 3.1-5.9), race other than black or white (OR 3.7, 95%CI 1.8-7.8), and a history of stroke or paralysis (OR 1.8, 95%CI 1.1-2.9). The overall mortality rate was increased in subjects with restriction on spirometry (25.7 vs. 10.3 deaths per 1000 person-years).

CONCLUSIONS

Restriction on spirometry is associated with comorbid disease and increased mortality, and is present in a significant proportion of the population.