Outcomes of latent rheumatic heart disease: External validation of a simplified score in patients with and without secondary prophylaxis

BACKGROUND

Secondary antibiotic prophylaxis reduces progression of latent rheumatic heart disease (RHD) but not all children benefit. Improved risk stratification could refine recommendations following positive screening. We aimed to evaluate the performance of a previously developed echocardiographic risk score to predict mid-term outcomes among children with latent RHD.

METHODS

We included children who completed the GOAL, a randomized trial of secondary antibiotic prophylaxis among children with latent RHD in Uganda. Outcomes were determined by a 4-member adjudication panel. We applied the point-based score, consisting of 5 variables (mitral valve (MV) anterior leaflet thickening (3 points), MV excessive leaflet tip motion (3 points), MV regurgitation jet length ≥ 2 cm (6 points), aortic valve focal thickening (4 points) and any aortic regurgitation (5 points)), to panel results. Unfavorable outcome was defined as progression of diagnostic category (borderline to definite, mild definite to moderate/severe definite), worsening valve involvement or remaining with mild definite RHD.

RESULTS

799 patients (625 borderline and 174 definite RHD) were included, with median follow-up of 24 months. At total 116 patients (14.5%) had unfavorable outcome per study criteria, 57.8% not under prophylaxis. The score was strongly associated with unfavorable outcome (HR = 1.26, 95% CI 1.16-1.37, p < 0.001). Unfavorable outcome rates in low (≤6 points), intermediate (7-9 points) and high-risk (≥10 points) children at follow-up were 11.8%, 30.4%, and 42.2%, (p < 0.001) respectively (C-statistic = 0.64 (95% CI 0.59-0.69)).

CONCLUSIONS

The simple risk score provided an accurate prediction of RHD status at 2-years, showing a good performance in a population with milder RHD phenotypes.

Agreement between Handheld and Standard Echocardiography for Diagnosis of Latent Rheumatic Heart Disease in Brazilian Schoolchildren from High-Prevalence Settings (Agreement between Screening and Standard Echo for RHD)

Introduction: Handheld echocardiography (echo) is the tool of choice for rheumatic heart disease (RHD) screening. We aimed to assess the agreement between screening and standard echo for latent RHD diagnosis in schoolchildren from an endemic setting. Methods: Over 14 months, 3 nonphysicians used handheld machines and the 2012 WHF Criteria to determine RHD prevalence in consented schoolchildren from Brazilian low-income public schools. Studies were interpreted by telemedicine by 3 experts (Brazil, US). RHD-positive children (borderline/definite) and those with congenital heart disease (CHD) were referred for standard echo, acquired and interpreted by a cardiologist. Agreement between screening and standard echo, by WHF subgroups, was assessed. Results: 1390 students were screened in 6 schools, with 110 (7.9%, 95% CI 6.5-9.5) being screen positive (14 ± 2 years, 72% women). Among 16 cases initially diagnosed as definite RHD, 11 (69%) were confirmed, 4 (25%) reclassified to borderline, and 1 to normal. Among 79 cases flagged as borderline RHD, 19 (24%) were confirmed, 50 (63%) reclassified to normal, 8 (10%) reclassified as definite RHD, and 2 had mild CHD. Considering the 4 diagnostic categories, kappa was 0.18. In patients with borderline RHD reclassified to non-RHD, the most frequent WHF criterion was B (isolated mitral regurgitation, 64%), followed by A (2 mitral valve morphological features, 31%). In 1 patient with definite RHD reclassified to normal, the WHF criterion was D (borderline RHD in aortic and mitral valves). After standard echo, RHD prevalence was 3.2% (95% CI 2.3-4.2). Conclusions: Although practical, RHD screening with handheld devices tends to overestimate prevalence.

Chagas disease deaths detected among garbage codes registered in mortality statistics in Brazil: a study from the buRden of ChAgas dISEase in the contemporary world (RAISE) project

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to identify Brazil's most critical garbage codes (GCs) reclassified to Chagas disease (ChD) in mortality data and their proportions. We also estimated the potential impact of misclassification on the number of deaths attributed to ChD.

STUDY DESIGN

Population-based descriptive study.

METHODS

We used the Mortality Information System (SIM; in Portuguese) data before and after routine GC investigation in 2015-2019 to evaluate ChD deaths detected among them. We identified priority GCs, which contributed more than 0.1 % to the percentage of total ChD deaths registered. Spearman's correlation was used to evaluate the association between the reclassification of priority GCs and ChD prevalence. Then, we applied the GC correction factors to estimate the number of deaths attributed to ChD.

RESULTS

22,154 deaths were reported as ChD in the study period. Among them, 1004 deaths originally listed as priority GCs were deaths reclassified to ChD after an investigation in the SIM final database. Unspecific cardiomyopathy (10.2 %), unspecific heart diseases (4.7 %), and heart failure (2.8 %) were GCs with the highest proportions of reclassification to ChD in Brazil. Higher ChD prevalence at the state level was associated with a higher proportion of GC deaths reclassified as ChD. When applying correction factors identified after investigation, we estimated an increase of 26.4 % in registered ChD deaths, mostly in states with higher endemicity.

CONCLUSIONS

GCs might conceal deaths due to ChD, particularly in Brazil's states with higher endemicity. The approach suggested in this study may offer an alternative method for estimating ChD-related deaths in endemic countries.

The Burden of Chagas Disease in the Contemporary World: The RAISE Study

Chagas disease (ChD), a Neglected Tropical Disease, has witnessed a transformative epidemiological landscape characterized by a trend of reduction in prevalence, shifting modes of transmission, urbanization, and globalization. Historically a vector-borne disease in rural areas of Latin America, effective control measures have reduced the incidence in many countries, leading to a demographic shift where most affected individuals are now adults. However, challenges persist in regions like the Gran Chaco, and emerging oral transmission in the Amazon basin adds complexity. Urbanization and migration from rural to urban areas and to non-endemic countries, especially in Europe and the US, have redefined the disease's reach. These changing patterns contribute to uncertainties in estimating ChD prevalence, exacerbated by the lack of recent data, scarcity of surveys, and reliance on outdated models. Besides, ChD's lifelong natural history, marked by acute and chronic phases, introduces complexities in diagnosis, particularly in non-endemic regions where healthcare provider awareness is low. The temporal dissociation of infection and clinical manifestations, coupled with underreporting, has rendered ChD invisible in health statistics. Deaths attributed to ChD cardiomyopathy often go unrecognized, camouflaged under alternative causes. Understanding these challenges, the RAISE project aims to reassess the burden of ChD and ChD cardiomyopathy. The project is a collaborative effort of the World Heart Federation, Novartis Global Health, the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, and a team of specialists coordinated by Brazil's Federal University of Minas Gerais. Employing a multidimensional strategy, the project seeks to refine estimates of ChD-related deaths, conduct systematic reviews on seroprevalence and prevalence of clinical forms, enhance existing modeling frameworks, and calculate the global economic burden, considering healthcare expenditures and service access. The RAISE project aspires to bridge knowledge gaps, raise awareness, and inform evidence-based health policies and research initiatives, positioning ChD prominently on the global health agenda.

Vagal dysautonomia in patients with Chagas disease and mortality: 14-year results of a population cohort of the elderly

INTRODUCTION

Great part of Chagas disease (ChD) mortality occurs due to ventricular arrhythmias, and autonomic function (AF) may predict unfavorable outcomes. We aimed to evaluate the predictive value of AF indexes in ChD patients.

METHODS

The Bambuí Study of Aging is a prospective cohort of residents ≥60 years at study onset (1997), in the southeastern Brazilian city of Bambuí (15,000 inhabitants). Consented participants underwent annual follow-up visits, and death certificates were tracked. AF was assessed by the maximum expiration on minimum inspiration (E:I) ratio during ECG acquisition and by heart rate variability indices: SDRR (standard deviation of adjacent RR intervals) and RMSSD (square root of the mean of the sum of squares of the differences between adjacent RR intervals)), calculated using a computer algorithm. Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to access the prognostic value of AF indexes, expressed as terciles, for all-cause mortality, after adjustment for demographic, clinical and ECG variables.

RESULTS

From 1742 qualifying residents, 1000 had valid AF tests, being 321 with ChD. Among these, median age was 68 (64-74) years, and 32.5% were men. In Cox survival analyses, only SDRR was associated with all-cause mortality in non-adjusted models: SDRR (hazard ratio (HR): 1.26 (95% CI 1.08-1.47), p < 0.001), E:I ratio (HR: 1.13 (95% CI 0,98-1.31), p = 0.10) and RMSSD (HR: 0.99 (0.86-1.16), p = 0.95). After adjustment for sex and age, none of the indexes remained as independent predictors.

CONCLUSION

Among elderly patients with ChD, AF indexes available in this cohort were not independent predictors of 14-year mortality.

Cardiovascular mortality in Brazil during the COVID-19 pandemic: a comparison between underlying and multiple causes of death

OBJECTIVES

The COVID-19 pandemic has differentially impacted cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality worldwide. Causes of death misclassification may be one of the reasons. We evaluated the impact of the pandemic on CVD mortality in Brazil, comparing underlying causes (UCs) and multiple causes (MCs) of death.

STUDY DESIGN

Ecological time-series study.

METHODS

An ecological, time-series study was conducted analysing age-standardised death rates for CVD, from epidemiological week (EW) 10/2020 to 39/2021, using data from the Mortality Information System, Brazil. CVD was defined using the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) coding, if reported as UC or MC of death. Observed and expected data (mean for the same EW, 2017-2019) were compared. Risk ratios (RiRs) were analysed, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated.

RESULTS

Age-standardised mortality rate for CVD as UC of death was 165.8 (95%CI: 165.4-166.3) per 100,000 inhabitants, similar to what was expected (165.6/100,000, 95%CI: 165.2-166.1, RiR = 1.00). There was increased out-of-hospital mortality (RiR = 1.18; 95%CI: 1.17-1.19) and deaths of ill-defined causes (RiR = 1.43; 95%CI: 1.42-1.44). The increase in out-of-hospital deaths was more pronounced in the North (RiR = 1.33; 95%CI 1.30-1.36) region, with a less resilient health system. Conversely, as MCs of death, there was a 10% increase in CVD mortality (observed: 243.2 [95%CI: 242.7-243.7], expected: 221.6 [95%CI: 221.1-222.1] per 100,000). An increase also occurred in the North and Central West regions (RiR = 1.16; 95%CI: 1.15-1.18), among men (RiR = 1.11; 95%CI: 1.11-1.12) and individuals aged ≥60 years (RiR = 1.11; 95%CI: 1.10-1.11).

CONCLUSIONS

During the pandemic, mortality rates for CVD as MCs of death increased in Brazil, whereas as UC mortality rates did not change. Higher out-of-hospital mortality, misclassification, and competing causes of death may explain this pattern.

Network Meta-Analysis of Initial Antithrombotic Regimens After Left Atrial Appendage Occlusion

BACKGROUND

The optimal antithrombotic therapy following left atrial appendage occlusion (LAAO) in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF) remains uncertain.

OBJECTIVES

In this study, the authors sought to compare the efficacy and safety of various antithrombotic strategies after LAAO.

METHODS

We searched the Medline, Cochrane, EMBASE, LILACS, and ClinicalTrials.gov databases for studies reporting outcomes after LAAO, stratified by antithrombotic therapy prescribed at postprocedural discharge. Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs), vitamin K antagonists (VKAs), single antiplatelet therapy (SAPT), dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT), DOAC plus SAPT, VKA plus SAPT, and no antithrombotic therapy were analyzed. We performed a frequentist random effects model network meta-analysis to estimate the OR and 95% CI for each comparison. P-scores provided a ranking of treatments.

RESULTS

Forty-one studies comprising 12,451 patients with nonvalvular AF were included. DAPT, DOAC, DOAC plus SAPT, and VKA were significantly superior to no therapy to prevent device-related thrombosis. DOAC was associated with lower all-cause mortality than VKA (OR: 0.39; 95% CI: 0.17-0.89; P = 0.03). Compared with SAPT, DAPT was associated with fewer thromboembolic events (OR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.29-0.88; P = 0.02), without a difference in major bleeding. In the analysis of P-scores, DOAC monotherapy was the strategy most likely to have lower thromboembolic events and major bleeding.

CONCLUSIONS

In this network meta-analysis comparing initial antithrombotic therapies after LAAO, monotherapy with DOAC had the highest likelihood of lower thromboembolic events and major bleeding. DAPT was associated with a lower incidence of thromboembolic events compared with SAPT and may be a preferred option in patients unable to tolerate anticoagulation.

Clinical outcomes and progression rate of tricuspid regurgitation in patients with rheumatic mitral valve disease

OBJECTIVE

A substantial proportion of patients with rheumatic heart disease (RHD) have tricuspid regurgitation (TR). This study aimed to identify the impact of functional TR on clinical outcomes and predictors of progression in a large population of patients with RHD.

METHODS

A total of 645 patients with RHD were enrolled, mean age of 47±12 years, 85% female. Functional TR was graded as absent, mild, moderate or severe. TR progression was defined either as worsening of TR degree from baseline to the last follow-up echocardiogram or severe TR at baseline that required surgery or died. Incidence of TR progression was estimated accounting for competing risks.

RESULTS

Functional TR was absent in 3.4%, mild in 83.7%, moderate in 8.5% and severe in 4.3%. Moderate and severe functional TR was associated with adverse outcome (HR 1.91 (95% CI 1.15 to 3.2) for moderate, and 2.30 (95% CI 1.28 to 4.13) for severe TR, after adjustment for other prognostic variables. Event-free survival rate at 3-year follow-up was 91%, 72% and 62% in patients with no or mild, moderate and severe TR, respectively. During mean follow-up of 4.1 years, TR progression occurred in 83 patients (13%) with an overall incidence of 3.7 events (95% CI 2.9 to 4.5) per 100 patient-years. In the Cox model, age (HR 1.71, 95% CI 1.34 to 2.17), New York Heart Association functional class III/IV (HR 2.57, 95% CI 1.54 to 4.30), right atrial area (HR 1.52, 95% CI 1.10 to 2.10) and right ventricular (RV) dysfunction (HR 2.02, 95% CI 1.07 to 3.84) were predictors of TR progression. By considering competing risk, the effect of RV dysfunction on TR progression risk was attenuated.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with RHD, functional TR was frequent and associated with adverse outcomes. TR may progress over time, mainly related to right-sided cardiac chambers remodelling.

P2Y12 inhibitor monotherapy versus dual antiplatelet therapy in patients with acute coronary syndromes undergoing coronary stenting: rationale and design of the NEOMINDSET Trial

Dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) is currently the standard of care after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Recent studies suggest that reducing DAPT to 1-3 months followed by an aspirin-free single antiplatelet therapy (SAPT) strategy with a potent P2Y₁₂ inhibitor is safe and associated with less bleeding. However, to date, no randomised trial has tested the impact of initiating SAPT immediately after PCI, particularly in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). NEOMINDSET is a multicentre, randomised, open-label trial with a blinded outcome assessment designed to compare SAPT versus DAPT in 3,400 ACS patients undergoing PCI with the latest-generation drug-eluting stents (DES). After successful PCI and up to 4 days following hospital admission, patients are randomised to receive SAPT with a potent P2Y₁₂ inhibitor (ticagrelor or prasugrel) or DAPT (aspirin plus a potent P2Y₁₂ inhibitor) for 12 months. Aspirin is discontinued immediately after randomisation in the SAPT group. The choice between ticagrelor and prasugrel is at the investigator's discretion. The primary hypothesis is that SAPT will be non-inferior to DAPT with respect to the composite endpoint of all-cause mortality, stroke, myocardial infarction or urgent target vessel revascularisation, but superior to DAPT on rates of bleeding defined by Bleeding Academic Research Consortium 2, 3 or 5 criteria. NEOMINDSET is the first study that is specifically designed to test SAPT versus DAPT immediately following PCI with DES in ACS patients. This trial will provide important insights on the efficacy and safety of withdrawing aspirin in the early phase of ACS. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04360720).

Impact of a large-scale telemedicine network on emergency visits and hospital admissions during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in Brazil: Data from the UNIMED-BH system

INTRODUCTION

Triage by on-demand telemedicine is a strategy for healthcare surge control in the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to assess the impact of a large-scale COVID-19 telemedicine system on emergency department (ED) visits and all-cause and cardiovascular hospital admissions in Brazil.

METHODS

From March 18, 2020-May 18, 2020 we evaluated the database of a cooperative private health insurance, with 1.28 million clients. The COVID-19 telemedicine system consisted of: a) mobile app, which redirects to teleconsultations if indicated; b) telemonitoring system, with regular phone calls to suspected/confirmed COVID-19 cases to monitor progression; c) emergency ambulance system (EAS), with internet phone triage and counselling. ED visits and hospital admissions were recorded, with diagnoses assessed by the Diagnosis Related Groups method. COVID-19 diagnosis and deaths were identified from the patients' registries, and outcomes assessed until June 1st.

RESULTS

In 60 days, 24,354 patients accessed one of the telemedicine systems. The most frequently utilized was telemonitoring (16,717, 69%), followed by teleconsultation (13,357, 55%) and EAS (687, 3%). The rates of ED and hospital admissions were: telemonitoring 19.7% (3,296) and 4.7% (782); teleconsultation 17.3% (2,313) and 2.4% (318) and EAS: 55.9% (384) and 56.5% (388) patients. At total 4.1% (1,010) had hospital admissions, 36% (363) with respiratory diseases (44 requiring mechanical ventilation) and 4.4% (44) with cardiovascular diagnoses. Overall, 277 (1.1%) patients had confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis, and 160 (0.7%) died, 9 with COVID-19.

CONCLUSION

Telemedicine resulted in low rates of ED visits and hospital admissions, suggesting positive impacts on healthcare utilization. Cardiovascular admissions were remarkably rare.

Reasons for disagreement between screening and standard echocardiography in primary care: data from the PROVAR + study : Disagreement between screening and standard echo

We aimed to evaluate the reasons for disagreement between screening echocardiography (echo), acquired by nonexperts, and standard echo in the Brazilian primary care (PC). Over 20 months, 22 PC workers were trained on simplified handheld (GE VSCAN) echo protocols. Screening groups, consisting of patients aged 17-20, 35-40 and 60-65 years, and patients referred for clinical indications underwent focused echo. Studies were remotelyinterpreted in US and Brazil, and those diagnosed with major or severe HD were referred for standard echoperformed by an expert. Major HD was defined as moderate to severe valve disease, ventriculardysfunction/hypertrophy, pericardial effusion or wall-motion abnormalities. A random sample of exams wasselected for evaluation of variables accounting for disagreement. A sample of 768 patients was analyzed, 651(85%) in the referred group. Quality issues were reported in 5.8%, and the random Kappa for major HD between screening and standard echo was 0.51. The most frequent reasons for disagreement were: overestimation of mitral regurgitation (MR) (17.9%, N=138), left ventricular (LV) dysfunction (15.7%, N=121), aortic regurgitation (AR) (15.2%, N=117), LV hypertrophy (13.5%, N=104) and tricuspid regurgitation (12.7%, N=98). Misdiagnosis of mitral and aortic morphological abnormalities was observed in 12.4% and 3.0%, and underestimation of AR and MR occurred in 4.6% and 11.1%. Among 257 patients with suspected mild/moderate MR, 129 were reclassified to normal. In conclusion, although screening echo with task-shifting in PC is a promising tool in low-income areas, estimation of valve regurgitation and LV function and size account for considerable disagreement with standard exams.

Clinical and electrocardiographic outcomes evaluated by telemedicine of outpatients with clinical suspicion of COVID-19 treated with chloroquine compounds in Brazil†

Aims

To evaluate clinical and electrocardiographic outcomes of patients with COVID-19, comparing those using chloroquine compounds (chloroquine) to individuals without specific treatment.

Methods

Outpatients with suspected COVID-19 in Brazil who had at least one tele-electrocardiography (ECG) recorded in a telehealth system were enrolled in two arms (Group 1: chloroquine and Group 2: without specific treatment) and one registry (Group 3: other treatments). Outcomes were assessed through follow-up calls (phone contact, days 3 and 14) and linkage to national mortality and hospitalization databases. The primary outcome was composed of: hospitalization, intensive care admission, mechanical ventilation, and all-cause death, and the ECG outcome was the occurrence of major abnormalities by the Minnesota code. Significant variables in univariable logistic regression were included in 4 models: 1-unadjusted; 2-adjusted for age and sex; 3-model 2 + cardiovascular risk factors and 4-model 3 + COVID-19 symptoms.

Results

In 303 days, 712 (10.2%) patients were allocated in group 1, 3,623 (52.1%) in group 2 and 2,622 (37.7%) in group 3; 1,969 had successful phone follow-up (G1: 260, G2: 871, and G3: 838). A late follow-up ECG was obtained for 917 (27.2%) patients [group 1: 81 (11.4%), group 2: 512 (14.1%), group 3: 334 (12.7%)]. In adjusted models, chloroquine was independently associated with greater chance of the composite clinical outcome: phone contact (model 4): OR = 3.24 (95% CI 2.31-4.54), p < 0.001. Chloroquine was also independently associated with higher mortality, assessed by phone + administrative data (model 3): OR = 1.67 (95% CI 1.20-2.28). However, chloroquine did not associate with the occurrence of major ECG abnormalities [model 3; OR = 0.80 (95% CI 0.63-1.02, p = 0.07)]. Abstracts with partial results of this work was accepted in the American Heart Association Scientific Sessions, November 2022, in Chicago, IL, USA.

Conclusion

Chloroquine was associated with a higher risk of poor outcomes in patients suspected to have COVID-19 when compared to those who received standard care. Follow-up ECGs were obtained in only 13.2% of patients and did not show any significant differences in major abnormalities amongst the three groups. In the absence of early ECG changes, other side effects, late arrhythmias or deferral of care may be hypothesized to explain the worse outcomes.

Prevalence of rheumatic heart disease in adults from the Brazilian Amazon Basin

BACKGROUND

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) continues to be a burden in low- and middle-income countries and prevalence estimates are lacking from South America. We aimed to determine the prevalence of RHD in the Brazilian Amazon Basin.

METHODS

We examined a random sample of adults (≥18 years) from the general population, who underwent echocardiographic image acquisition by a medical doctor. All images were analyzed according to (i) the 2012 World Heart Federation criteria and (ii) a simplified algorithm for RHD from a previously validated risk score (categories: low-, medium-, high-risk) which involved assessment of the mitral valve (leaflet thickening and excessive motion, regurgitation jet length) and aortic valve (thickening and any regurgitation).

RESULTS

A total of 488 adults were screened (mean age 40 ± 15 years, 38% men). The prevalence of RHD was 39/1000 adults (n = 17 definite and n = 2 borderline). Fourteen (74%) had pathological mitral regurgitation, four (21%) mitral stenosis, 0 (0%) pathological aortic regurgitation and six (32%) both mitral and aortic valve disease. None had a prior diagnosis of RHD, 10 (53%) had positive cardiac auscultation and two (11%) reported a history of rheumatic fever. The simplified algorithm identified four (21%) adults as low-risk, six (32%) as intermediate, and nine (47%) as high-risk.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of RHD was 39/1000 in adults from the Brazilian Amazon Basin, indicating the need for screening programs in remote areas. A simplified model was only able to categorize every second case of RHD as high-risk. External validation of simplified screening models to increase feasibility in clinical practice are encouraged.

Burden of cardiovascular diseases attributable to risk factors in Brazil: data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

Introduction

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) continue to be the main cause of death in Brazil, a middle-income country. As such, it is essential to understand the trends of risk factors (RFs) for CVDs in order to implement effective and tailored public policies.

Purpose

The present study sought to analyze the trend of RF for CVD and the disease burden attributable to these from 1990 to 2019, in Brazil and its states, based on estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (2019 GBD).

Methods

To estimate RF exposure, the Summary Exposure Value (SEV) (risk-weighted prevalence) was used, whereas for disease burden attributed to RFs, mortality and Disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) by CVD were used. For comparisons over time and between states, the age-standardized rates were considered. The sociodemographic index (SDI) was used as a marker of socioeconomic conditions.

Results

In 2019, 82% of CVD mortality in Brazil was attributable to RFs. For SEV, there was a reduction in smoking and environmental RFs, as well as an increase in metabolic RFs. High systolic blood pressure and dietary risks continue to be the main RFs for CVD mortality and DALY (Figure 1). While there was a decline in age-standardized mortality rates attributable to the evaluated RFs, there was also a stability or increase in crude mortality rates, with the exception of smoking. It is important to highlight the increase in the risk of death attributable to a high body mass index (BMI) (35 to 46/100,000 in habitants in 1990 and 2019). Regarding the analysis per state, SEVs and mortality attributable to RF were higher in those states with lower SDIs.

Conclusion

Despite the reduction in CVD mortality and DALY rates attributable to RF, the stability or increase in crude rates attributable to metabolic RFs is worrisome, requiring investments and a renewal of health policies.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): Health Surveillance Secretariat, Brazilian Ministry of Health Figure 1

Conquering stroke epidemiological statistics in Brazil an innovative initiative from the Brazilian Society of Cardiology

Background

Stroke has been the second major cause of death in Brazil in the last decades. A better understanding on epidemiological statistics as well as on the diseases burden is crucial for enabling stakeholders to better tackle the disease.

Purpose

This project aims to continuously monitor and evaluate the data sources on heart disease and stroke in Brazil to provide the most up-to-date information on the epidemiology of these diseases to Brazilian society annually.

Methods

This initiative is based on the Heart Disease & Stroke Statistics Update methodology of the American Heart Association, with the support of the Brazilian Society of Cardiology, the Global Burden of Diseases Brazil network and an international committee. The project incorporates official statistics provided by the Brazilian Ministry of Health and other government agencies, as well as data generated by other sources and scientific studies on heart disease, stroke, and other CVD, including GBD/IHME data.

Results

The age-standardized prevalence rates per 100.000 for ischemic stroke in 1990 was 1327,6 (1151.2 to 1516) and 870.1 (761.1 to 992.8) in 2019 representing a percent change of −34.5 (−36.7 to −0.3). The age-standardized prevalence rates for intracerebral hemorrhage in 1990 was 507.5 (438.9 to584.1) and 315.9 (275 to 361.4) in 2019 representing a percent change of −37.7 (−40.5 to −0.3). The age-standardized incidence rates for stroke in 1990 was 224.6 (201.6 to 251.8) and 127 (113.8 to 142.1) in 2019 representing a percent change of −43.5 (−44.7 to −0.4). the age-standardized mortality rates for stroke in 1990 was 137.8 (127.8 to 144) and 58.1 (52.6 to 61.8) in 2019 representing a percent change of −57.8 (−60.4 to −0.6). The age-standardized DALY rates for stroke in 1990 was 2959 (2829.6 to 3063) and 1219.6 (1142 to 1285.5) in 2019 representing a percent change of −58.8 (−61 to −0.6).

Conclusion

This project represents a fundamental step on a better understanding on the stroke epidemiology in Brazil. While we observed a significant decrease in mortality rates from 1990 to 2019, we also raise a concern on a possible shift for a plateau curve or even increased rates in the next years.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Other. Main funding source(s): Brazilian Society of Cardiology

Outcomes of Echocardiography-Detected Rheumatic Heart Disease: Validating a Simplified Score in Cohorts From Different Countries

Background The natural history of latent rheumatic heart disease (RHD) detected by echocardiography remains unclear. We aimed to assess the accuracy of a simplified score based on the 2012 World Heart Federation criteria in predicting mid-term RHD echocardiography outcomes in children from 4 different countries. Methods and Results Patient-level baseline and follow-up data of children with latent RHD from 4 countries (Australia, n=62; Brazil, n=197; Malawi, n=40; New Zealand, n=94) were combined. A simplified echocardiographic scoring system previously developed from Brazilian and Ugandan cohorts, consisting of 5 point-based variables with respective weights, was applied: mitral valveanterior leaflet thickening (weight=3), excessive leaflet
tip motion (3), regurgitation jet length ≥2 cm (6), aortic valve
focal thickening (4), and any regurgitation (5). Unfavorable outcome was defined as worsening diagnostic category, persistent definite RHD or development/worsening of valve regurgitation/stenosis. The score model was updated using methods for recalibration. 393 patients (314 borderline, 79 definite RHD) with median follow-up of 36 (interquartile range, 25-48) months were included. Median age was 14 (interquartile range, 11-16) years and secondary prophylaxis was prescribed to 16%. The echocardiographic score model applied to this external population showed significant association with unfavorable outcome (hazard ratio, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.04-1.16; P=0.001). Unfavorable outcome rates in low (≤5 points), intermediate (6-9), and high-risk (≥10) children at 3-year follow-up were 14.3%, 20.8%, and 38.5% respectively (P<0.001). The updated score model showed good performance in predicting unfavorable outcome. Conclusions The echocardiographic score model for predicting RHD outcome was updated and validated for different latent RHD populations. It has potential utility in the clinical and screening setting for risk stratification of latent RHD.

Diagnosing rheumatic heart disease: where are we now and what are the challenges?

INTRODUCTION

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD), a sequela of acute rheumatic fever (ARF), affects 40.5 million people worldwide. The burden of disease disproportionately falls on low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) and sub-populations within high-income countries (HIC). Advances have been made in earlier detection of RHD, though several barriers to ideal management persist.

AREAS COVERED

This article reviews the current burden of RHD, highlighting the disparate impact of disease. It also reviews the clinical and echocardiographic presentation of RHD, as some may present in late stages of disease with associated complications. Finally, we review the advances which have been made in echocardiographic screening to detect latent RHD, highlighting the challenges which remain regarding secondary prophylaxis management and uncertainty of best practices for treatment of latent RHD.

EXPERT OPINION

Advances in technology and validation of portable echocardiography have made screening and identifying latent RHD feasible in the most burdened regions. However, uncertainty remains around best management of those with latent RHD and best methods to ensure ideal secondary prophylaxis for RHD. Research regarding latent RHD management, as well as continued work on innovative solutions (such as group A streptococcal vaccine), are promising as efforts to improve outcomes of this preventable disease persist.

Towards automatic diagnosis of rheumatic heart disease on echocardiographic exams through video-based deep learning

OBJECTIVE

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) affects an estimated 39 million people worldwide and is the most common acquired heart disease in children and young adults. Echocardiograms are the gold standard for diagnosis of RHD, but there is a shortage of skilled experts to allow widespread screenings for early detection and prevention of the disease progress. We propose an automated RHD diagnosis system that can help bridge this gap.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Experiments were conducted on a dataset with 11 646 echocardiography videos from 912 exams, obtained during screenings in underdeveloped areas of Brazil and Uganda. We address the challenges of RHD identification with a 3D convolutional neural network (C3D), comparing its performance with a 2D convolutional neural network (VGG16) that is commonly used in the echocardiogram literature. We also propose a supervised aggregation technique to combine video predictions into a single exam diagnosis.

RESULTS

The proposed approach obtained an accuracy of 72.77% for exam diagnosis. The results for the C3D were significantly better than the ones obtained by the VGG16 network for videos, showing the importance of considering the temporal information during the diagnostic. The proposed aggregation model showed significantly better accuracy than the majority voting strategy and also appears to be capable of capturing underlying biases in the neural network output distribution, balancing them for a more correct diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

Automatic diagnosis of echo-detected RHD is feasible and, with further research, has the potential to reduce the workload of experts, enabling the implementation of more widespread screening programs worldwide.

Echocardiographic screening of pregnant women by non-physicians with remote interpretation in primary care

BACKGROUND

Impact of heart disease (HD) on pregnancy is significant.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to evaluate the feasibility of integrating screening echocardiography (echo) into the Brazilian prenatal primary care to assess HD prevalence.

METHODS

Over 13 months, 20 healthcare workers acquired simplified echo protocols, utilizing hand-held machines (GE-VSCAN), in 22 primary care centres. Consecutive pregnant women unaware of HD underwent focused echo, remotely interpreted in USA and Brazil. Major HD was defined as structural valve abnormalities, more than mild valve dysfunction, ventricular systolic dysfunction/hypertrophy, or other major abnormalities. Screen-positive women were referred for standard echo.

RESULTS

At total, 1 112 women underwent screening. Mean age was 27 ± 8 years, mean gestational age 22 ± 9 weeks. Major HD was found in 100 (9.0%) patients. More than mild mitral regurgitation was observed in 47 (4.2%), tricuspid regurgitation in 11 (1.0%), mild left ventricular dysfunction in 4 (0.4%), left ventricular hypertrophy in 2 (0.2%) and suspected rheumatic heart disease in 36 (3.2%): all, with mitral valve and two with aortic valve (AV) involvement. Other AV disease was observed in 11 (10%). In 56 screen-positive women undergoing standard echo, major HD was confirmed in 45 (80.4%): RHD findings in 12 patients (all with mitral valve and two with AV disease), mitral regurgitation in 40 (14 with morphological changes, 10 suggestive of rheumatic heart disease), other AV disease in two (mild/moderate regurgitation).

CONCLUSIONS

Integration of echo screening into primary prenatal care is feasible in Brazil. However, the low prevalence of severe disease urges further investigations about the effectiveness of the strategy.

Impact of incorporating echocardiographic screening into a clinical prediction model to optimise utilisation of echocardiography in primary care

INTRODUCTION

Access to public subspecialty healthcare is limited in underserved areas of Brazil, including echocardiography (echo). Long waiting lines and lack of a prioritisation system lead to diagnostic lag and may contribute to poor outcomes. We developed a prioritisation tool for use in primary care, aimed at improving resource utilisation, by predicting those at highest risk of having an abnormal echo, and thus in highest need of referral.

METHODS

All patients in the existing primary care waiting list for echo were invited for participation and underwent a clinical questionnaire, simplified 7-view echo screening by non-physicians with handheld devices, and standard echo by experts. Two derivation models were developed, one including only clinical variables and a second including clinical variables and findings of major heart disease (HD) on echo screening (cut point for high/low-risk). For validation, patients were risk-classified according to the clinical score. High-risk patients and a sample of low-risk underwent standard echo. Intermediate-risk patients first had screening echo, with a standard echo if HD was suspected. Discrimination and calibration of the two models were assessed to predict HD in standard echo.

RESULTS

In derivation (N = 603), clinical variables associated with HD were female gender, body mass index, Chagas disease, prior cardiac surgery, coronary disease, valve disease, hypertension and heart failure, and this model was well calibrated with C-statistic = 0.781. Performance was improved with the addition of echo screening, with C-statistic = 0.871 after cross-validation. For validation (N = 1526), 227 (14.9%) patients were classified as low risk, 1082 (70.9%) as intermediate risk and 217 (14.2%) as high risk by the clinical model. The final model with two categories had high sensitivity (99%) and negative predictive value (97%) for HD in standard echo. Model performance was good with C-statistic = 0.720.

CONCLUSION

The addition of screening echo to clinical variables significantly improves the performance of a score to predict major HD.

Cytokine gene functional polymorphisms and phenotypic expression as predictors of evolution from latent to clinical rheumatic heart disease

INTRODUCTION

Inflammation associated with rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is influenced by gene polymorphisms and inflammatory cytokines. There are currently no immunologic and genetic markers to discriminate latent versus clinical patients, critical to predict disease evolution. Employing machine-learning, we searched for predictors that could discriminate latent versus clinical RHD, and eventually identify latent patients that may progress to clinical disease.

METHODS

A total of 212 individuals were included, 77 with latent, 100 with clinical RHD, and 35 healthy controls. Circulating levels of 27 soluble factors were evaluated using Bio-Plex ProTM® Human Cytokine Standard 27-plex assay. Gene polymorphism analyses were performed using RT-PCR for the following genes: IL2, IL4, IL6, IL10, IL17A, TNF and IL23.

RESULTS

Serum levels of all cytokines were higher in clinical as compared to latent RHD patients, and in those groups than in controls. IL-4, IL-8, IL-1RA, IL-9, CCL5 and PDGF emerged in the final multivariate model as predictive factors for clinical, compared with latent RHD. IL-4, IL-8 and IL1RA had the greater power to predict clinical RHD. In univariate analysis, polymorphisms in IL2 and IL4 were associated with clinical RHD and in the logistic analysis, IL6 (GG + CG), IL10 (CT + TT), IL2 (CA + AA) and IL4 (CC) genotypes were associated with RHD.

CONCLUSION

Despite higher levels of all cytokines in clinical RHD patients, IL-4, IL-8 and IL-1RA were the best predictors of clinical disease. An association of polymorphisms in IL2, IL4, IL6 and IL10 genes and clinical RHD was observed. Gene polymorphism and phenotypic expression of IL-4 accurately discriminate latent versus clinical RHD, potentially instructing clinical management.

Trends in mortality due to non-communicable diseases in the Brazilian adult population: national and subnational estimates and projections for 2030

BACKGROUND

Monitoring and reducing premature mortality due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a global priority of Agenda 2030. This study aimed to describe the mortality trends and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to NCDs between 1990 and 2017 for Brazil and to project those for 2030 as well as the risk factors (RFs) attributed deaths according to estimates of the Global Burden of Disease Study.

METHODS

We analyzed cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, neoplasms, and diabetes, and compared the mortality rates in 1990 and 2017 for all of Brazil and states. The study used the definition of premature mortality (30-69 years) that is used by the World Health Organization. The number of deaths, mortality rates, DALYs, and years of life lost (YLL) were used to compare 1990 and 2017. We analyzed the YLL for NCDs attributable to RFs.

RESULTS

There was a reduction of 35.3% from 509.1 deaths/100,000 inhabitants (1990) to 329.6 deaths/100,000 inhabitants due to NCDs in 2017. The DALY rate decreased by 33.6%, and the YLL rate decreased by 36.0%. There were reductions in NCDs rates in all 27 states. The main RFs related to premature deaths by NCDs in 2017 among women were high body mass index (BMI), dietary risks, high systolic blood pressure, and among men, dietary risks, high systolic blood pressure, tobacco, and high BMI. Trends in mortality rates due to NCDs declined during the study period; however, after 2015, the curve reversed, and rates fluctuated and tended to increase.

CONCLUSION

Our findings highlighted a decline in premature mortality rates from NCDs nationwide and in all states. There was a greater reduction in deaths from cardiovascular diseases, followed by respiratory diseases, and we observed a minor reduction for those from diabetes and neoplasms. The observed fluctuations in mortality rates over the last 3 years indicate that if no further action is taken, we may not achieve the NCD Sustainable Development Goals. These findings draw attention to the consequences of austerity measures in a socially unequal setting with great regional disparities in which the majority of the population is dependent on state social policies.

The burden of diabetes and hyperglycemia in Brazil: a global burden of disease study 2017

Background

The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2017 database permits an up-to-date evaluation of the frequency and burden of diabetes at the state level in Brazil and by type of diabetes. The objective of this report is to describe, using these updated GBD data, the current and projected future burden of diabetes and hyperglycemia in Brazil, as well as its variation over time and space.

Methods

We derived all estimates using the GBD 2016 and 2017 databases to characterize disease burden related to diabetes and hyperglycemia in Brazil, from 1990 to 2040, using standard GBD methodologies.

Results

The overall estimated prevalence of diabetes in Brazil in 2017 was 4.4% (95%UI 4.0–4.9%), with 4.0% of those with diabetes being identified as having type 1 disease. While the crude prevalence of type 1 disease has remained relatively stable from 1990, type 2 prevalence has increased 30% for males and 26% for females. In 2017, approximately 3.3% of all disability-adjusted life years lost were due to diabetes and 5.9% to hyperglycemia. Diabetes prevalence and mortality were highest in the Northeast region and growing fastest in the North, Northeast, and Center-West regions. Over this period, despite a slight decrease in age-standardized incidence of type 2 diabetes, crude overall burden due to hyperglycemia has increased 19%, with population aging being a main cause for this rise. Cardiovascular diseases, responsible for 38.3% of this burden in 1990, caused only 25.9% of it in 2017, with premature mortality attributed directly to diabetes causing 31.6% of the 2017 burden. Future projections suggest that the diabetes mortality burden will increase 144% by 2040, more than twice the expected increase in crude disease burden overall (54%). By 2040, diabetes is projected to be Brazil’s third leading cause of death and hyperglycemia its third leading risk factor, in terms of deaths.

Conclusions

The disease burden in Brazil attributable to diabetes and hyperglycemia, already large, is predicted by GBD estimates to more than double to 2040. Strong actions by the Ministry of Health are necessary to counterbalance the major deleterious effects of population aging.

Cost-Effectiveness of Rheumatic Heart Disease Echocardiographic Screening in Brazil: Data from the PROVAR+ Study: Cost-effectiveness of RHD screening in Brazil

Introduction

In recent years, new technologies - noticeably ultra-portable echocardiographic machines - have emerged, allowing for Rheumatic Heart Disease (RHD) early diagnosis. We aimed to perform a cost-utility analysis to assess the cost-effectiveness of RHD screening with handheld devices in the Brazilian context.

Methods

A Markov model was created to assess the cost-effectiveness of one-time screening for RHD in a hypothetical cohort of 11-year-old socioeconomically disadvantaged children, comparing the intervention to standard care using a public perspective and a 30-year time horizon. The model consisted of 13 states: No RHD, Undiagnosed Asymptomatic Borderline RHD, Diagnosed Asymptomatic Borderline RHD, Untreated Asymptomatic Definite RHD, Treated Asymptomatic Definite RHD, Untreated Mild Clinical RHD, Treated Mild Clinical RHD, Untreated Severe Clinical RHD, Treated Severe Clinical RHD, Surgery, Post-Surgery and Death. The initial distribution of the population over the different states was derived from primary echo screening data. Costs of the different states were derived from the Brazilian public health system database. Transition probabilities and utilities were derived from published studies. A discount rate of 3%/year was used. A cost-effectiveness threshold of $25,949.85 per Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) averted is used in concordance with the 3x GDP per capita threshold in 2015.

Results

RHD echo screening is cost-effective with an Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio of $10,148.38 per DALY averted. Probabilistic modelling shows that the intervention could be considered cost-effective in 70% of the iterations.

Conclusion

Screening for RHD with hand held echocardiographic machines in 11-year-old children in the target population is cost-effective in the Brazilian context.

Highlights

A cost-effectiveness analysis showed that Rheumatic Heart Disease (RHD) echocardiographic screening utilizing handheld devices, performed by non-physicians with remote interpretation by telemedicine is cost-effective in a 30-year time horizon in Brazil.The model included primary data from the first large-scale RHD screening program in Brazilian underserved populations and costs from the Unified Health System (SUS), and suggests that the Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio of the intervention is considerably below the acceptable threshold for Brazil, even after a detailed sensitivity analysis.Considering the high prevalence of subclinical RHD in Brazil, and the significant economic burden posed by advanced disease, these data are important for the formulation of public policies and surveillance approaches.Cost-saving strategies first implemented in Brazil by the PROVAR study, such as task-shifting to non-physicians, computer-based training, routine use of affordable devices and telemedicine for remote diagnosis may help planning RHD control programs in endemic areas worldwide.

Atrial fibrillation detection with a portable device during cardiovascular screening in primary care

INTRODUCTION

A novel handheld dual-electrode stick is a portable atrial fibrillation (AF) screening device (AFSD). We evaluated AFSD performance in primary care patients referred for echocardiogram (echo).

METHODS

The AFSD has a light indication of irregular rhythm and single-lead ECG recording. Patients were instructed to hold the device for 1 min, and AF indication was recorded. A 12-lead ECG was performed for all AFSD-positive patients and 250 patients with negative AFSD screen. Echos were performed based on a clinical risk score: all high-risk patients and a sampling of low-risk patients underwent complete echo. Intermediate risk patients first had a screening echocardiogram, with a follow-up complete study if abnormality was suspected.

RESULTS

In 5 days, 1518 patients underwent clinical evaluation and cardiovascular risk stratification: mean age 58±16 years, 66% women. The AFSD was positive in 6.4%: 12.6% high risk, 6.1% intermediate risk and 2.2% low risk. Older age was a risk factor (9.3% vs 4.8% in those more than and less than 65 years, p=0.001). AFSD positive was independently associated with heart disease in echo (OR=3.9, 95% CI 2.1 to 7.2, p<0.001). Compared with 12-lead ECG, the AFSD had sensitivity of 90.2% (95% CI 77.0% to 97.3%) and specificity of 84.0% (95% CI 79.3% to 88.0%) for AF detection.

CONCLUSION

AFSD demonstrated high sensitivity for AF detection in primary care patients referred for echo. AF prevalence was substantial and independently associated with structural or functional heart disease, suggesting that AFSD screening could be a useful primary care tool to stratify risk and prioritise echo.

Efficacy of Dexrazoxane in Preventing Anthracycline Cardiotoxicity in Breast Cancer

Objectives

The authors performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized and nonrandomized trials on the efficacy of dexrazoxane in patients with breast cancer who were treated with anthracyclines with or without trastuzumab.

Background

Breast cancer treatment with anthracyclines and trastuzumab is associated with an increased risk of cardiotoxicity. Among the various strategies to reduce the risk of cardiotoxicity, dexrazoxane is an option for primary prevention, but it is seldom used in clinical practice.

Methods

Online databases were searched from January 1990 up to March 1, 2019, for clinical trials on the use of dexrazoxane for the prevention of cardiotoxicity in patients with breast cancer receiving anthracyclines with or without trastuzumab. Risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a random-effects model meta-analysis.

Results

Seven randomized trials and 2 retrospective trials with a total of 2,177 patients were included. Dexrazoxane reduced the risk of clinical heart failure (RR: 0.19; 95% CI: 0.09 to 0.40; p < 0.001) and cardiac events (RR: 0.36; 95% CI: 0.27 to 0.49; p < 0.001) irrespective of previous exposure to anthracyclines. The rate of a partial or complete oncological response, overall survival, and progression-free survival were not affected by dexrazoxane.

Conclusions

Dexrazoxane reduced the risk of clinical heart failure and cardiac events in patients with breast cancer undergoing anthracycline chemotherapy with or without trastuzumab and did not significantly impact cancer outcomes. However, the quality of available evidence is low, and further randomized trials are warranted before the systematic implementation of this therapy in clinical practice.

Cardiac Involvement by Yellow Fever(from the PROVAR+ Study)

Incidence of Yellow Fever (YF) has increased in Brazil, and cardiac findings such as bradyarrhythmias and conduction abnormalities have been described. We aimed to perform a comprehensive cardiac evaluation of patients with YF, and to assess the association between cardiac involvement and disease severity. Patients hospitalized with YF from February to March 2018 underwent clinical and laboratory evaluation, focused bedside echocardiography (GE Vivid IQ), electrocardiogram and, in case of alterations, 24-hours Holter. Patients were divided into 2 groups according to YF severity. Five patients underwent magnetic resonance imaging and 3 had necropsy. Seventy patients had confirmed YF, 69% with severe form. Mean age was 48 ± 14 years, 63 (90%) were males and 5 (7%) died. Significant electrocardiogram abnormalities were present in 52% of patients with mild/moderate form of YF (G1) and 77% of those with severe form (G2), p = 0.046. Sinus bradycardia was observed in 24% (N = 17): G1 23% versus G2 25%, p = 0.67. Among 32 patients who underwent Holter, 14 (44%) had mean HR <60 beats per minute, being 8 from G2. Echocardiogram revealed left ventricular dysfunction in 4 (6%) patients, from G2. Left ventricular wall thickening with a hyper-refringent myocardial texture suggesting infiltration was observed in 17 patients (G1 18% vs G2 27%, p = 0.55). One magnetic resonance (G2) was suggestive of myocarditis, and one necropsy revealed areas of myocardial necrosis and acute myocarditis. In conclusion, cardiac involvement was observed in patients with YF, most commonly bradycardia and myocardial hyper-refringent texture suggestive of infiltration.

Implementing myocardial infarction systems of care in low/middle-income countries

Ischaemic heart disease is the leading cause of death worldwide, with an increasing trend from 6.1 million deaths in 1990 to 9.5 million in 2016, markedly driven by rates observed in low/middle-income countries (LMIC). Improvements in myocardial infarction (MI) care are crucial for reducing premature mortality. We aimed to evaluate the main challenges for adequate MI care in LMIC, and possible strategies to overcome these existing barriers.

Reperfusion is the cornerstone of MI treatment, but worldwide around 30% of patients are not reperfused, with even lower rates in LMIC. The main challenges are related to delays associated with patient education, late diagnosis and inadequate referral strategies, health infrastructure and insufficient funding. The implementation of regional MI systems of care in LMIC, systematising timely reperfusion strategies, access to intensive care, risk stratification and use of adjunctive medications have shown some successful strategies. Telemedicine support for remote ECG, diagnosis and organisation of referrals has proven to be useful, improving access to reperfusion even in prehospital settings. Organisation of transport and referral hubs based on anticipated delays and development of MI excellence centres have also resulted in better equality of care. Also, education of healthcare staff and task shifting may potentially widen access to optimal therapy.

In conclusion, efforts have been made for the implementation of MI systems of care in LMIC, aiming to address particularities of the health systems. However, the increasing impact of MI in these countries urges the development of further strategies to improve reperfusion and reduce system delays.

Integration of echocardiographic screening by non-physicians with remote reading in primary care

INTRODUCTION

Heart disease (HD) accounts for high morbidity and mortality in Brazil. Underserved populations often suffer long delays in diagnosis. We aimed to evaluate the feasibility of integrating screening echocardiography (echo) with remote interpretation in the established primary care system (PC) in Brazil and to assess HD prevalence.

METHODS

Over 11 months, 20 healthcare workers (four physicians, four nurses, and 12 technicians) at 16 PC centres were trained on simplified handheld echo protocols. Three screening (SC) groups, including all consented patients aged 17-20, 35-40 and 60-65 years, and patients referred (RF) for clinical indications underwent focused echo. Studies were remotely interpreted through telemedicine. Significant HD was defined as moderate/severe valve disease, ventricular dysfunction/hypertrophy, pericardial effusion, wall-motion abnormalities and congenital heart disease.

RESULTS

Total 1004 patients underwent echo; 299 (29.8%) in the SC group. Median age was 51±18 years, 63.9% females; 42.7% had cardiovascular symptoms. Significant HD was found in 354 (35.3%) patients (23.4% in SC vs 40.3% in RF group, p<0.001). Prevalence was higher in patients in the SC group aged >60 years (29.2%), compared with 35-40 (14.9%) and under 20 (16.5%), p=0.012. Comparing SC to RF groups, moderate/severe left ventricular dysfunction was observed in 4.1% vs 8.1%, p=0.03, mitral regurgitation in 8.9% vs 20.3%, p<0.001 and aortic stenosis in 5.4% vs 4.3%, p=0.51.

CONCLUSIONS

Integration focused echo into PC is feasible in Brazil as a strategy to deliver cardiovascular care to low-resourced areas through task shifting. The burden of HD observed suggests this tool may improve early diagnosis and referral.

Comparison Between Different Strategies of Rheumatic Heart Disease Echocardiographic Screening in Brazil: Data From the PROVAR (Rheumatic Valve Disease Screening Program) Study

Background

Considering the limited accuracy of clinical examination for early diagnosis of rheumatic heart disease (RHD), echocardiography has emerged as an important epidemiological tool. The ideal setting for screening is yet to be defined. We aimed to evaluate the prevalence and pattern of latent RHD in schoolchildren (aged 5–18 years) and to compare effectiveness of screening between public schools, private schools, and primary care centers in Minas Gerais, Brazil.

Methods and Results

The PROVAR (Rheumatic Valve Disease Screening Program) study uses nonexperts and portable and handheld devices for RHD echocardiographic screening, with remote interpretation by telemedicine, according to the 2012 World Heart Federation criteria. Compliance with study consent and prevalence were compared between different screening settings, and variables associated with RHD were analyzed. In 26 months, 12 048 students were screened in 52 public schools (n=10 901), 2 private schools (n=589), and 3 primary care centers (n=558). Median age was 12.9 years, and 55.4% were girls. Overall RHD prevalence was 4.0% borderline (n=486) and 0.5% definite (n=63), with statistically similar rates between public schools (4.6%), private schools (3.5%), and primary care centers (4.8%) (P=0.24). The percentage of informed consents signed was higher in primary care centers (84.4%) and private schools (66.9%) compared with public schools (38.7%) (P<0.001). Prevalence was higher in children ≥12 years (5.3% versus 3.1%; P<0.001) and girls (4.9% versus 4.0%; P=0.02). Only age (odds ratio, 1.12; 95% confidence interval, 1.09–1.17; P<0.001) was independently associated with RHD.

Conclusions

RHD screening in primary care centers seems to achieve higher coverage rates. Prevalence among schoolchildren is significantly high, with rates higher than expected in private schools of high‐income areas. These data are important for the formulation of public policies to confront RHD.

Value of the Electrocardiographic (P Wave, T Wave, QRS) Axis as a Predictor of Mortality in 14 Years in a Population With a High Prevalence of Chagas Disease from the Bambuí Cohort Study of Aging

We sought to investigate the prognostic value of the electrocardiogram (ECG) electrical axes (P wave, T wave and QRS) as predictors of mortality in the 14-year follow-up of the prospective cohort of all residents ≥60 years living in the southeastern Brazilian city of Bambuí, a population with high prevalence of Chagas disease (ChD). Baseline ECG axes were automatically measured with normal values defined as follows: P-wave axis 0° to 75°, QRS axis -30° to 90°, and T axis 15° to 75°. Participants underwent annual follow-up visits and death was verified using death certificates. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the prognostic value of ECG axes for all-cause mortality, after adjustment for potential confounders. From 1,742 qualifying residents, 1,462 were enrolled, of whom 557 (38.1%) had ChD. Mortality rate was 51.9%. In multivariable adjusted models, abnormal P-wave axis was associated with a 48% (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.48 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.16-1.88]) increased mortality risk in patients with ChD and 43% (HR = 1.43 [CI 1.13-1.81]) in patients without ChD. Abnormal QRS axis was associated with a 34% (HR = 1.34 [CI 1.04-1.73]) increased mortality risk in patients with ChD, but not in individuals without ChD. Similarly, in the ChD group, abnormal T-wave axis was associated with a 35% (HR = 1.35 [CI 1.07-1.71]) increased mortality, but not in patients without ChD. In conclusion, abnormal P-wave, QRS, and T-wave axes were associated with increased all-cause mortality in patients with ChD. Abnormal P-wave axis was associated with mortality also among those without ChD, being the strongest predictor among ECG variables.

Prevention and control of rheumatic heart disease: Overcoming core challenges in resource-poor environments

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) has long receded as a significant threat to public health in high-income countries. In low-resource settings, however, the specter of RHD remains unabated, as exemplified by recent data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study. There are many complex reasons for this ongoing global disparity, including inadequate data on disease burden, challenges in effective advocacy, ongoing poverty and inequality, and weak health systems, most of which predominantly affect developing nations. In this review, we discuss how each of these acts as a core challenge in RHD prevention and control. We then examine key lessons learnt from successful control programs in the past and highlight resources that have been developed to help create strong national RHD control programs.

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Rheumatic Heart Disease, 1990-2015

BACKGROUND

Rheumatic heart disease remains an important preventable cause of cardiovascular death and disability, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. We estimated global, regional, and national trends in the prevalence of and mortality due to rheumatic heart disease as part of the 2015 Global Burden of Disease study.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed data on fatal and nonfatal rheumatic heart disease for the period from 1990 through 2015. Two Global Burden of Disease analytic tools, the Cause of Death Ensemble model and DisMod-MR 2.1, were used to produce estimates of mortality and prevalence, including estimates of uncertainty.

RESULTS

We estimated that there were 319,400 (95% uncertainty interval, 297,300 to 337,300) deaths due to rheumatic heart disease in 2015. Global age-standardized mortality due to rheumatic heart disease decreased by 47.8% (95% uncertainty interval, 44.7 to 50.9) from 1990 to 2015, but large differences were observed across regions. In 2015, the highest age-standardized mortality due to and prevalence of rheumatic heart disease were observed in Oceania, South Asia, and central sub-Saharan Africa. We estimated that in 2015 there were 33.4 million (95% uncertainty interval, 29.7 million to 43.1 million) cases of rheumatic heart disease and 10.5 million (95% uncertainty interval, 9.6 million to 11.5 million) disability-adjusted life-years due to rheumatic heart disease globally.

CONCLUSIONS

We estimated the global disease prevalence of and mortality due to rheumatic heart disease over a 25-year period. The health-related burden of rheumatic heart disease has declined worldwide, but high rates of disease persist in some of the poorest regions in the world. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Medtronic Foundation.).

Telehealth solutions to enable global collaboration in rheumatic heart disease screening

Background The global burden of rheumatic heart disease is nearly 33 million people. Telemedicine, using cloud-server technology, provides an ideal solution for sharing images performed by non-physicians with cardiologists who are experts in rheumatic heart disease. Objective We describe our experience in using telemedicine to support a large rheumatic heart disease outreach screening programme in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais. Methods The Programa de Rastreamento da Valvopatia Reumática (PROVAR) is a prospective cross-sectional study aimed at gathering epidemiological data on the burden of rheumatic heart disease in Minas Gerais and testing of a non-expert, telemedicine-supported model of outreach rheumatic heart disease screening. The primary goal is to enable expert support of remote rheumatic heart disease outreach through cloud-based sharing of echocardiographic images between Minas Gerais and Washington. Secondary goals include (a) developing and sharing online training modules for non-physicians in echocardiography performance and interpretation and (b) utilising a secure web-based system to share clinical and research data. Results PROVAR included 4615 studies that were performed by non-experts at 21 schools and shared via cloud-telemedicine technology. Latent rheumatic heart disease was found in 251 subjects (4.2% of subjects: 3.7% borderline and 0.5% definite disease). Of the studies, 50% were preformed on full functional echocardiography machines and transmitted via Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) and 50% were performed on handheld echocardiography machines and transferred via a secure Dropbox connection. The average time between study performance date and interpretation was 10 days. There was 100% success in initial image transfer. Less than 1% of studies performed by non-experts could not be interpreted. Discussion A sustainable, low-cost telehealth model, using task-shifting with non-medical personal in low and middle income countries can improve access to echocardiography for rheumatic heart disease.

Efficacy of a Standardized Computer-Based Training Curriculum to Teach Echocardiographic Identification of Rheumatic Heart Disease to Nonexpert Users

The ability to integrate echocardiographic for rheumatic heart disease (RHD) into RHD prevention programs is limited because of lack of financial and expert human resources in endemic areas. Task shifting to nonexperts is promising; but investigations into workforce composition and training schemes are needed. The objective of this study was to test nonexperts' ability to interpret RHD screening echocardiograms after a brief, standardized, computer-based training course. Six nonexperts completed a 3-week curriculum on image interpretation. Participant performance was tested in a school-screening environment in comparison to the reference approach (cardiologists, standard portable echocardiography machines, and 2012 World Heart Federation criteria). All participants successfully completed the curriculum, and feedback was universally positive. Screening was performed in 1,381 children (5 to 18 years, 60% female), with 397 (47 borderline RHD, 6 definite RHD, 336 normal, and 8 other) referred for handheld echo. Overall sensitivity of the simplified approach was 83% (95% CI 76% to 89%), with an overall specificity of 85% (95% CI 82% to 87%). The most common reasons for false-negative screens (n = 16) were missed mitral regurgitation (MR; 44%) and MR ≤1.5 cm (29%). The most common reasons for false-positive screens (n = 179) included identification of erroneous color jets (25%), incorrect MR measurement (24%), and appropriate application of simplified guidelines (39.4%). In conclusion, a short, independent computer-based curriculum can be successfully used to train a heterogeneous group of nonexperts to interpret RHD screening echocardiograms. This approach helps address prohibitive financial and workforce barriers to widespread RHD screening.

Rheumatic heart disease echocardiographic screening: approaching practical and affordable solutions

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) affects at least 32.9 million people worldwide and ranks as a leading cause of death and disability in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Echocardiographic screening has been demonstrated to be a powerful tool for early RHD detection, and holds potential for global RHD control. However, national screening programmes have not emerged. Major barriers to implementation include the lack of human and financial resources in LMICs. Here, we focus on recent research advances that could make echocardiographic screening more practical and affordable, including handheld echocardiography devices, simplified screening protocols and task shifting of echocardiographic screening to non-experts. Additionally, we highlight some important remaining questions before echocardiographic screening can be widely recommended, including demonstration of cost-effectiveness, assessment of the impact of screening on children and communities, and determining the importance of latent RHD. While a single strategy for echocardiographic screening in all high-prevalence areas is unlikely, we believe recent advancements are bringing the public health community closer to developing sustainable programmes for echocardiographic screening.

Trends in Procedure Type, Morbidity and In-Hospital Outcomes of Patients with Peripheral Artery Disease: Data from the Brazilian Public Health System

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of peripheral artery disease (PAD) is rising worldwide, with considerable impact on health care systems.

METHODS

We aimed to characterize the trends in therapeutic procedures and outcomes of PAD in the Brazilian Public Health System Database (DataSUS) between 2008 and 2012.

RESULTS

The number of hospitalizations remained stable from 2008 to 2012, although there was a significant change in the proportions of treatment modalities. In 2008, surgical revascularization (SR) = 8,001 (29%), endovascular revascularization (EVR) = 3,207 (11%), and clinical treatment (CT) = 16,887 (60%); and in 2012, SR = 7,882 (28%), EVR = 5,044 (18%), and CT = 15,225 (54%); P < 0.001, a 57% increase in EVR, and 9.8% decrease in CT. Total costs raised 37% (US $18.2-24.9 million, P < 0.001), with a marked 92% increase in EVR costs (US $5.1-9.8 million), compared with SR (11%) and CT (30%). Mortality decreased for EVR (2.0-1.4%, P = 0.048), increased for CT (5.1-5.8%, P = 0.002) and remained stable for SR. A nonsignificant increase was observed in total mortality (5.7-5.9%, P = NS).

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis depicts the high-PAD mortality in Brazil emphasizing the need of preventing and controlling cardiovascular risk factors. The impact of PAD in costs increased, mainly because of costs related to EVR.

Meta-analysis of deferral versus performance of coronary intervention based on coronary pressure-derived fractional flow reserve

Fractional flow reserve (FFR) has been proposed as the gold standard to assess functional severity of coronary artery stenosis and to stratify which lesions should be subjected to intervention (percutaneous coronary intervention [PCI]). A systematic review was performed in MEDLINE and EMBASE including studies indexed until November 2013 that used FFR for deferral or performance of PCI. Outcomes of interest were death, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and new revascularization (RV). Nineteen studies were included, totaling 3,097 patients (3,796 lesions). Mean follow-up was 21.2 months. In indirect comparisons, FFR-PCI and FFR-defer groups had similar death (2.2% vs 2.0%, respectively, p = 0.86) and AMI rates (1.9% vs 1.9%, respectively, p = 1.00). RV rates were higher in the FFR-PCI group (14.0% vs 4.4%, p = 0.002). Direct comparisons (2-arm trials) also showed no differences in death (odds ratio [OR] 1.86 [95% CI 0.81 to 4.27], I(2) = 11.5, p = 0.14) and AMI rates (OR 0.75 [95% CI 0.21 to 2.69], I(2) = 47.1, p = 0.66); RV rates were again higher in the FFR-PCI (OR 3.10 [95% CI 1.25 to 7.70], I(2) = 72.2, p = 0.015). Meta-regression suggests influence of male gender on RV rates (β = 0.058, p = 0.026). In conclusion, deferral of PCI based on FFR is a safe strategy. Considerable heterogeneity was observed, however.

Global health and cardiovascular disease

The modern definition of Global Health has expanded its scope beyond neglected diseases and low-income and underdeveloped countries. The current initiatives focus on improvement of health, reduction of disparities and protection against global threats, seeking for interaction with health practices, policies and systems. There has been a growing interest on Global Health research, given the epidemiological transition currently underway in low and mid-income countries and the increasing epidemiological importance of cardiovascular and other non-communicable diseases, to the detriment of infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies. Various aspects-formerly neglected-of these diseases, such as epidemiology, prevention, diagnosis and therapy, have been addressed in Global Health publications, leading to a better understanding of the importance of health as a public good, beyond borders. Scientific evidence supports broader initiatives in which governments, foundations and the civil society must share responsibilities and funding to achieve health equity, the main goal of Global Health.