Forest expansion dominates China’s land carbon sink since 1980

Carbon budget accounting relies heavily on Food and Agriculture Organization land-use data reported by governments. Here we develop a new land-use and cover-change database for China, finding that differing historical survey methods biased China’s reported data causing large errors in Food and Agriculture Organization databases. Land ecosystem model simulations driven with the new data reveal a strong carbon sink of 8.9 ± 0.8 Pg carbon from 1980 to 2019 in China, which was not captured in Food and Agriculture Organization data-based estimations due to biased land-use and cover-change signals. The land-use and cover-change in China, characterized by a rapid forest expansion from 1980 to 2019, contributed to nearly 44% of the national terrestrial carbon sink. In contrast, climate changes (22.3%), increasing nitrogen deposition (12.9%), and rising carbon dioxide (8.1%) are less important contributors. This indicates that previous studies have greatly underestimated the impact of land-use and cover-change on the terrestrial carbon balance of China. This study underlines the importance of reliable land-use and cover-change databases in global carbon budget accounting.

The impact of land-use and cover-change (LUCC) on ecosystem carbon stock in China is poorly known due to large biases in existing databases. Here the authors develop a new LUCC database with corrected false signals and reveal that forest expansion is the dominant driver of China’s recent carbon sink.

Convergence in phosphorus constraints to photosynthesis in forests around the world

Tropical forests take up more carbon (C) from the atmosphere per annum by photosynthesis than any other type of vegetation. Phosphorus (P) limitations to C uptake are paramount for tropical and subtropical forests around the globe. Yet the generality of photosynthesis-P relationships underlying these limitations are in question, and hence are not represented well in terrestrial biosphere models. Here we demonstrate the dependence of photosynthesis and underlying processes on both leaf N and P concentrations. The regulation of photosynthetic capacity by P was similar across four continents. Implementing P constraints in the ORCHIDEE-CNP model, gross photosynthesis was reduced by 36% across the tropics and subtropics relative to traditional N constraints and unlimiting leaf P. Our results provide a quantitative relationship for the P dependence for photosynthesis for the front-end of global terrestrial C models that is consistent with canopy leaf measurements.

Phosphorus (P) limitation is pervasive in tropical forests. Here the authors analyse the dependence of photosynthesis on leaf N and P in tropical forests, and show that incorporating leaf P constraints in a terrestrial biosphere model enhances its predictive power.

Natural forests promote phosphorus retention in soil

Soil phosphorus (P) availability often limits plant productivity. Classical theories suggest that total P content declines at the temporal scale of pedogenesis, and ecosystems develop toward the efficient use of scarce P during succession. However, the trajectory of ecosystem P within shorter time scales of succession remains unclear. We analyzed changes to P pools at the early (I), middle (II), and late (III) stages of growth of plantation forests (PFs) and the successional stages of natural forests (NFs) at 1969 sites in China. We found significantly lower P contents at later growth stages compared to earlier ones in the PF (p < .05), but higher contents at late successional stages than in earlier stages in the NF (p < .05). Our results indicate that increasing P demand of natural vegetation during succession, may raise, retain, and accumulate P from deeper soil layers. In contrast, ecosystem P in PF was depleted by the more rapidly increasing demand outpacing the development of a P-efficient system. We advocate for more studies to illuminate the mechanisms for determining the divergent changes, which would improve forest management and avoid the vast degradation of PF ecosystems suffering from the ongoing depletion of P.

Disentangling the Impacts of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Terrestrial Carbon Cycle During 1850-2014

Aerosols have a dimming and cooling effect and change hydrological regimes, thus affecting carbon fluxes, which are sensitive to climate. Aerosols also scatter sunlight, which increases the fraction of diffuse radiation, increasing photosynthesis. There remains no clear conclusion whether the impact of aerosols on land carbon fluxes is larger through diffuse radiation change than through changes in other climate variables. In this study, we quantified the overall physical impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on land C fluxes and explored the contribution from each factor using a set of factorial simulations driven by climate and aerosol data from the IPSL-CM6A-LR experiments during 1850-2014. A newly developed land surface model which distinguishes diffuse and direct radiation in canopy radiation transmission, ORCHIDEE_DF, was used. Specifically, a subgrid scheme was developed to distinguish the cloudy and clear sky conditions. We found that anthropogenic aerosol emissions since 1850 cumulatively enhanced the land C sink by 22.6 PgC. Seventy-eight percent of this C sink enhancement is contributed by aerosol-induced increase in the diffuse radiation fraction, much larger than the effect of the aerosol-induced dimming. The cooling of anthropogenic aerosols has different impacts in different latitudes but overall increases the global land C sink. The dominant role of diffuse radiation changes found in this study implies that future aerosol emissions may have a much stronger impacts on the C cycle through changing radiation quality than through changing climate alone. Earth system models need to consider the diffuse radiation fertilization effect to better evaluate the impacts of climate change mitigation scenarios.

Spatially explicit analysis identifies significant potential for bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in China

As China ramped-up coal power capacities rapidly while CO2 emissions need to decline, these capacities would turn into stranded assets. To deal with this risk, a promising option is to retrofit these capacities to co-fire with biomass and eventually upgrade to CCS operation (BECCS), but the feasibility is debated with respect to negative impacts on broader sustainability issues. Here we present a data-rich spatially explicit approach to estimate the marginal cost curve for decarbonizing the power sector in China with BECCS. We identify a potential of 222 GW of power capacities in 2836 counties generated by co-firing 0.9 Gt of biomass from the same county, with half being agricultural residues. Our spatially explicit method helps to reduce uncertainty in the economic costs and emissions of BECCS, identify the best opportunities for bioenergy and show the limitations by logistical challenges to achieve carbon neutrality in the power sector with large-scale BECCS in China.

Comparison of forest above-ground biomass from dynamic global vegetation models with spatially explicit remotely sensed observation-based estimates

Gaps in our current understanding and quantification of biomass carbon stocks, particularly in tropics, lead to large uncertainty in future projections of the terrestrial carbon balance. We use the recently published GlobBiomass data set of forest above-ground biomass (AGB) density for the year 2010, obtained from multiple remote sensing and in situ observations at 100 m spatial resolution to evaluate AGB estimated by nine dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). The global total forest AGB of the nine DGVMs is 365 ± 66 Pg C, the spread corresponding to the standard deviation between models, compared to 275 Pg C with an uncertainty of ~13.5% from GlobBiomass. Model-data discrepancy in total forest AGB can be attributed to their discrepancies in the AGB density and/or forest area. While DGVMs represent the global spatial gradients of AGB density reasonably well, they only have modest ability to reproduce the regional spatial gradients of AGB density at scales below 1000 km. The 95th percentile of AGB density (AGB₉₅ ) in tropics can be considered as the potential maximum of AGB density which can be reached for a given annual precipitation. GlobBiomass data show local deficits of AGB density compared to the AGB₉₅ , particularly in transitional and/or wet regions in tropics. We hypothesize that local human disturbances cause more AGB density deficits from GlobBiomass than from DGVMs, which rarely represent human disturbances. We then analyse empirical relationships between AGB density deficits and forest cover changes, population density, burned areas and livestock density. Regression analysis indicated that more than 40% of the spatial variance of AGB density deficits in South America and Africa can be explained; in Southeast Asia, these factors explain only ~25%. This result suggests TRENDY v6 DGVMs tend to underestimate biomass loss from diverse and widespread anthropogenic disturbances, and as a result overestimate turnover time in AGB.

Rainfall manipulation experiments as simulated by terrestrial biosphere models: Where do we stand?

Changes in rainfall amounts and patterns have been observed and are expected to continue in the near future with potentially significant ecological and societal consequences. Modelling vegetation responses to changes in rainfall is thus crucial to project water and carbon cycles in the future. In this study, we present the results of a new model-data intercomparison project, where we tested the ability of 10 terrestrial biosphere models to reproduce the observed sensitivity of ecosystem productivity to rainfall changes at 10 sites across the globe, in nine of which, rainfall exclusion and/or irrigation experiments had been performed. The key results are as follows: (a) Inter-model variation is generally large and model agreement varies with timescales. In severely water-limited sites, models only agree on the interannual variability of evapotranspiration and to a smaller extent on gross primary productivity. In more mesic sites, model agreement for both water and carbon fluxes is typically higher on fine (daily-monthly) timescales and reduces on longer (seasonal-annual) scales. (b) Models on average overestimate the relationship between ecosystem productivity and mean rainfall amounts across sites (in space) and have a low capacity in reproducing the temporal (interannual) sensitivity of vegetation productivity to annual rainfall at a given site, even though observation uncertainty is comparable to inter-model variability. (c) Most models reproduced the sign of the observed patterns in productivity changes in rainfall manipulation experiments but had a low capacity in reproducing the observed magnitude of productivity changes. Models better reproduced the observed productivity responses due to rainfall exclusion than addition. (d) All models attribute ecosystem productivity changes to the intensity of vegetation stress and peak leaf area, whereas the impact of the change in growing season length is negligible. The relative contribution of the peak leaf area and vegetation stress intensity was highly variable among models.

FRI0558 PREGNANCY OUTCOMES IN PATIENTS WITH AXIAL SPONDYLOARTHRITIS – A FIRST JOINT ANALYSIS OF A EUROPEAN COLLABORATION OF PREGNANCY REGISTERS

Background:

Axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) can affect women in their childbearing age. But data on pregnancy in axSpA patients are mainly retrospective and highly heterogeneous [1].

Objectives:

The aim of this analysis was to investigate pregnancy outcomes and health of live born children in women with axSpA in four prospective cohort studies.

Methods:

Data of European pregnancy registries that collaborate in the European Network of Pregnancy Registries in Rheumatology (EuNeP) were analysed: EGR2 (France), RePreg (Switzerland), RevNatus (Norway) and Rhekiss (Germany). Eligible women had a diagnosis of axSpA and a pregnancy outcome reported until June-September 2019. Data were analysed descriptively by every registry and provided to the coordinating centre.

Results:

A total of 328 pregnancies in 288 women were investigated. Mean age of patients ranged from 31 to 33 years. Disease duration (3-8 years) and proportion of patients with a positive HLA-B27 (64-74%) varied (Table 1). The axSpA diagnosis was either classified by ASAS criteria (fulfilment in EGR2: 93%, RePreg: 65%, RevNatus: 86%) or by ASAS criteria for axial/ peripheral SpA (Rhekiss: 81/ 34%). Rates for preterm birth were ≤5%, and congenital malformations were reported in 4 out of 287 neonates (Table 2).

Table 1.

Maternal and disease characteristics

EGR2 (FR)RePreg (CH)RevNatus (NO)Rhekiss (DE)# Pregnancies453116092# Patients443112588Age in years32.0 ± 4.231.4 ± 4.030.5 ± 4.533.2 ± 4.4Disease duration in years6.0 ± 5.67.7 ± 4.63.2 ± 3.36.2 ± 5.3HLA-B27 positive26 (66.7)23 (74.2)79 (71.2)54 (73.0)Pre-gestational diabetes001 (0.6)1 (1.4)IBD004 (2.6)5 (7.2)Uveitis003 (1.9)3 (4.3)BMI26.5 ± 4.822.6 ± 2.524.4 ± 4.323.4 ± 4.3

Results as mean ± SD or number (percentage)

Table 2.

Pregnancy characteristics, obstetric and neonatal outcomes

EGR2 (FR)RePreg (CH)RevNatus (NO)Rhekiss (DE)WGA at 1stvisit in pregnancy11.9 ± 8.219.7 ± 9.412.9 ± 5.713.4 ± 5.4Patients with 1 pregnancy43 (95.5)31 (100.0)101 (80.8)84 (95.5)Primigravidae18 (40.0)15 (48.4)47 (29.4)37 (45.1)Adverse events of interestPreeclampsia1 (4.4)04 (2.6)0Gestational diabetes4 (8.9)2 (6.5)n.a.5 (6.2)Pregnancy outcomes(5 Outcomes missing)(1 Outcome missing)Elective termination1 (2.2)02 (1.3)0Miscarriage (< WGA 20)2 (4.4)013 (8.4)4 (4.4)Pregnancy loss >WGA 202 (4.4)000Live birth40 (88.9)31 (100.0)140 (90.3)87 (95.6)Outcomes of live births# Neonates, singleton pregn.403013978$# Neonates, multiple pregn.0224Neonatal outcomes, only singleton pregnanciesWGA at delivery39.1 ± 1.239.5 ± 1.538.9 ± 2.339.4 ± 2.0Preterm birth006 (4.3)4 (5.4)Birth weight in g3253 ± 3953314 ± 5193446 ± 5263377 ± 522Congenital malformation00n.a.#4 (5.1)

Results as mean ± SD or number (percentage). WGA: gestational age in weeks

#Malformations can be retrieved by national birth registry with a lag time of 2 years.

$Missing information for 7 infants.

Conclusion:

Differences in study design and classification criteria result in slightly different patient populations in each registry. The outcome of pregnancies was favourable. Preterm birth rates are within rates reported by the WHO for the EU general population. However, a selection bias of rather planned and well-controlled pregnancies cannot be ruled out. This is the first collaborative analysis of the EuNeP registries. Descriptive data were combined, and will be – as a next step – pooled together.

Funding: This work was supported by a research grant from FOREUM Foundation for Research in Rheumatology.

References:

[1] Giovannopoulou E et al. Curr Rheumatol Rev. 2017;13(3):162-9.

Disclosure of Interests:

Yvette Meißner Speakers bureau: Pfizer, Nathalie Costedoat-Chalumeau Grant/research support from: UCB to my institution, Frauke Förger Grant/research support from: Unrestricted grant from UCB, Consultant of: UCB, GSK, Roche, Speakers bureau: UCB, GSK, Doreen Goll: None declared, Anna Moltó Grant/research support from: Pfizer, UCB, Consultant of: Abbvie, BMS, MSD, Novartis, Pfizer, UCB, Rebecca Özdemir: None declared, Marianne Wallenius: None declared, Anja Strangfeld Speakers bureau: AbbVie, BMS, Pfizer, Roche, Sanofi-Aventis, Rebecca Fischer-Betz Consultant of: UCB, Speakers bureau: Abbvie, Amgen, Biogen, BMS, Celgene, Chugai, GSK, Janssen, Lilly, Medac, MSD, Novartis, Roche, UCB, Pfizer.

Global vegetation biomass production efficiency constrained by models and observations

Plants use only a fraction of their photosynthetically derived carbon for biomass production (BP). The biomass production efficiency (BPE), defined as the ratio of BP to photosynthesis, and its variation across and within vegetation types is poorly understood, which hinders our capacity to accurately estimate carbon turnover times and carbon sinks. Here, we present a new global estimation of BPE obtained by combining field measurements from 113 sites with 14 carbon cycle models. Our best estimate of global BPE is 0.41 ± 0.05, excluding cropland. The largest BPE is found in boreal forests (0.48 ± 0.06) and the lowest in tropical forests (0.40 ± 0.04). Carbon cycle models overestimate BPE, although models with carbon-nitrogen interactions tend to be more realistic. Using observation-based estimates of global photosynthesis, we quantify the global BP of non-cropland ecosystems of 41 ± 6 Pg C/year. This flux is less than net primary production as it does not contain carbon allocated to symbionts, used for exudates or volatile carbon compound emissions to the atmosphere. Our study reveals a positive bias of 24 ± 11% in the model-estimated BP (10 of 14 models). When correcting models for this bias while leaving modeled carbon turnover times unchanged, we found that the global ecosystem carbon storage change during the last century is decreased by 67% (or 58 Pg C).

Carbon and Phosphorus Allocation in Annual Plants: An Optimal Functioning Approach

Phosphorus (P) is the second most important nutrient after nitrogen (N) and can greatly diminish plant productivity if P supply is not adequate. Plants respond to soil P availability by adjusting root biomass to maintain uptake and productivity due to P use. In spite of our vast knowledge on P effects on plant growth, how to functionally model enhanced root biomass allocation in low P environments is not fully explored. We develop a dynamic plant model based on the principle of optimal carbon (C) and P allocation to investigate growth and functional response to contrasting levels of soil P availability. By describing plant growth as a balance of growth and respiration processes, we optimize C and P allocation in order to maximize leaf productivity and drive plant response. We compare our model to a field trial and a set of hydroponic experiments which describe plant response at varying P availabilities. The model is able to reproduce long-term plant functional response to different P levels like change in root-shoot ratio (RSR), total biomass and organ P concentration. But it is not capable of fully describing the time evolution of organ P uptake and cycling within the plant. Most notable is the underestimation of organ P uptake during the vegetative growth stage which is due to the model's leaf productivity formalism. In spite of the model's parsimonious nature, which optimizes for and predicts whole plant response through leaf productivity alone, the optimal growth hypothesis can provide a reasonable framework for modelling plant response to environmental change that can be used in more physically driven vegetation models.

Global forest carbon uptake due to nitrogen and phosphorus deposition from 1850 to 2100

Spatial patterns and temporal trends of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) deposition are important for quantifying their impact on forest carbon (C) uptake. In a first step, we modeled historical and future change in the global distributions of the atmospheric deposition of N and P from the dry and wet deposition of aerosols and gases containing N and P. Future projections were compared between two scenarios with contrasting aerosol emissions. Modeled fields of N and P deposition and P concentration were evaluated using globally distributed in situ measurements. N deposition peaked around 1990 in European forests and around 2010 in East Asian forests, and both increased sevenfold relative to 1850. P deposition peaked around 2010 in South Asian forests and increased 3.5-fold relative to 1850. In a second step, we estimated the change in C storage in forests due to the fertilization by deposited N and P (∆C_{ν dep} ), based on the retention of deposited nutrients, their allocation within plants, and C:N and C:P stoichiometry. ∆C_{ν dep} for 1997-2013 was estimated to be 0.27 ± 0.13 Pg C year^-1 from N and 0.054 ± 0.10 Pg C year^-1 from P, contributing 9% and 2% of the terrestrial C sink, respectively. Sensitivity tests show that uncertainty of ∆C_{ν dep} was larger from P than from N, mainly due to uncertainty in the fraction of deposited P that is fixed by soil. ∆C_Pdep was exceeded by ∆C_Ndep over 1960-2007 in a large area of East Asian and West European forests due to a faster growth in N deposition than P. Our results suggest a significant contribution of anthropogenic P deposition to C storage, and additional sources of N are needed to support C storage by P in some Asian tropical forests where the deposition rate increased even faster for P than for N.

Global patterns of phosphatase activity in natural soils

Soil phosphatase levels strongly control the biotic pathways of phosphorus (P), an essential element for life, which is often limiting in terrestrial ecosystems. We investigated the influence of climatic and soil traits on phosphatase activity in terrestrial systems using metadata analysis from published studies. This is the first analysis of global measurements of phosphatase in natural soils. Our results suggest that organic P (Porg), rather than available P, is the most important P fraction in predicting phosphatase activity. Structural equation modeling using soil total nitrogen (TN), mean annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, thermal amplitude and total soil carbon as most available predictor variables explained up to 50% of the spatial variance in phosphatase activity. In this analysis, Porg could not be tested and among the rest of available variables, TN was the most important factor explaining the observed spatial gradients in phosphatase activity. On the other hand, phosphatase activity was also found to be associated with climatic conditions and soil type across different biomes worldwide. The close association among different predictors like Porg, TN and precipitation suggest that P recycling is driven by a broad scale pattern of ecosystem productivity capacity.

Micromagnetic analysis of the hardening mechanisms of nanocrystalline MnBi and nanopatterned FePt intermetallic compounds

The uniaxial intermetallic compounds of L10-FePt and the low temperature NiAs structure of MnBi are suitable alloys for application as high-density recording materials or as high-coercivity permanent magnets. Single domain particles of these materials are characterized by coercive fields above 1 T over a large temperature range. In particular MnBi shows a coercive field of 2 T at 450 K. Its extraordinary magnetic properties in the temperature range up to 600 K are due to an increase of the magnetocrystalline anisotropy constant from 1.2 MJ m(-3) at 300 K to 2.4 MJ m(-3) at 450 K. In spite of the large coercivities obtained for both type of materials their experimental values deviate considerably from the theoretical values Hc = 2K1/Js valid for a homogeneous rotation process in spherical particles. As is well known these discrepancies are due to the deteriorating effects of the microstructure. For an analysis of the coercive fields the Stoner-Wohlfarth theory has to be expanded with respect to higher anisotropy constants and to microstructural effects such as misaligned grains and grain surfaces with reduced anisotropy constants. It is shown that the temperature dependence and the angular dependence of Hc for FePt as well as MnBi can be quantitatively interpreted by taking into account the above mentioned intrinsic and microstructural effects.

High-throughput search for new permanent magnet materials

The currently highest-performance Fe-Nd-B magnets show limited cost-effectiveness and lifetime due to their rare-earth (RE) content. The demand for novel hard magnetic phases with more widely available RE metals, reduced RE content or, even better, completely free of RE metals is therefore tremendous. The chances are that such materials still exist given the large number of as yet unexplored alloy systems. To discover such phases, an elaborate concept is necessary which can restrict and prioritize the search field while making use of efficient synthesis and analysis methods. It is shown that an efficient synthesis of new phases using heterogeneous non-equilibrium diffusion couples and reaction sintering is possible. Quantitative microstructure analysis of the domain pattern of the hard magnetic phases can be used to estimate the intrinsic magnetic parameters (saturation polarization from the domain contrast, anisotropy constant from the domain width, Curie temperature from the temperature dependence of the domain contrast). The probability of detecting TM-rich phases for a given system is high, therefore the approach enables one to scan through even higher component systems with one single sample. The visualization of newly occurring hard magnetic phases via their typical domain structure and the correlation existing between domain structure and intrinsic magnetic properties allows an evaluation of the industrial relevance of these novel phases.

Large-area hard magnetic L10-FePt nanopatterns by nanoimprint lithography

Large-area hard magnetic L1(0)-FePt nanopatterns with out-of-plane texture were fabricated by using a top-down approach. For the fabrication process, ultraviolet nanoimprint lithography (UV-NIL) in combination with inductively coupled plasma reactive Ar-ion etching was used. By this technique a continuous L1(0)-Fe(51)Pt(49) film was nanostructured into a regular arrangement of nanodots over an area of 4 mm(2). The dot dimension and distribution was specified by the stamp, resulting in a dot size of 60 nm and a periodicity of 150 nm. For the large-scale L1(0)-FePt nanopatterns, huge coercivities up to 4.31 T could be achieved. By means of magnetic force microscopy it could be verified that the nanodots were magnetically decoupled from each other and occurred in the single-domain state with perpendicular magnetization.

High-performance permanent magnets

High-performance permanent magnets (pms) are based on compounds with outstanding intrinsic magnetic properties as well as on optimized microstructures and alloy compositions. The most powerful pm materials at present are RE-TM intermetallic alloys which derive their exceptional magnetic properties from the favourable combination of rare earth metals (RE = Nd, Pr, Sm) with transition metals (TM = Fe, Co), in particular magnets based on (Nd.Pr)2Fe14B and Sm2(Co,Cu,Fe,Zr)17. Their development during the last 20 years has involved a dramatic improvement in their performance by a factor of > 15 compared with conventional ferrite pms therefore contributing positively to the ever-increasing demand for pms in many (including new) application fields, to the extent that RE-TM pms now account for nearly half of the worldwide market. This review article first gives a brief introduction to the basics of ferromagnetism to confer an insight into the variety of (permanent) magnets, their manufacture and application fields. We then examine the rather complex relationship between the microstructure and the magnetic properties for the two highest-performance and most promising pm materials mentioned. By using numerical micromagnetic simulations on the basis of the Finite Element technique the correlation can be quantitatively predicted, thus providing a powerful tool for the further development of optimized high-performance pms.