Prepandemic cross-reactive humoral immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in Africa: Systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

To assess the evidence on the presence of antibodies cross-reactive with SARS-CoV-2 antigens in prepandemic samples from African populations.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies evaluating prepandemic African samples using pre-set assay-specific thresholds for SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity.

RESULTS

In total, 26 articles with 156 datasets were eligible, including 3437 positives among 29,923 measurements (11.5%) with large between-dataset heterogeneity. Positivity was similar for anti-nucleocapsid (14%) and anti-spike antibodies (11%), higher for anti-spike1 (23%), and lower for anti-receptor-binding domain antibodies (7%). Positivity was similar, on average, for immunoglobulin M and immunoglobulin G. Positivity was seen prominently in countries where malaria transmission occurs throughout and in datasets enriched in malaria cases (14%, 95% confidence interval, 12-15% vs 2%, 95% confidence interval 1-2% in other datasets). Substantial SARS-CoV-2 reactivity was seen in high malaria burden with or without high dengue burden (14% and 12%, respectively), and not without high malaria burden (2% and 0%, respectively). Lower SARS-CoV-2 cross-reactivity was seen in settings of high HIV seroprevalence. More sparse individual-level data showed associations of higher SARS-CoV-2 cross-reactivity with Plasmodium parasitemia and lower SARS-CoV-2 cross-reactivity with HIV seropositivity.

CONCLUSION

Prepandemic samples from Africa show high levels of anti-SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity. At the country level, cross-reactivity tracks especially with malaria prevalence.

Transparency in Infectious Disease Research: Meta-research Survey of Specialty Journals

BACKGROUND

Infectious diseases carry large global burdens and have implications for society at large. Therefore, reproducible, transparent research is extremely important.

METHODS

We evaluated transparency indicators (code and data sharing, registration, and conflict and funding disclosures) in the 5340 PubMed Central Open Access articles published in 2019 or 2021 in the 9 most cited specialty journals in infectious diseases using the text-mining R package, rtransparent.

RESULTS

A total of 5340 articles were evaluated (1860 published in 2019 and 3480 in 2021 [of which 1828 were on coronavirus disease 2019, or COVID-19]). Text mining identified code sharing in 98 (2%) articles, data sharing in 498 (9%), registration in 446 (8%), conflict of interest disclosures in 4209 (79%), and funding disclosures in 4866 (91%). There were substantial differences across the 9 journals: 1%-9% for code sharing, 5%-25% for data sharing, 1%-31% for registration, 7%-100% for conflicts of interest, and 65%-100% for funding disclosures. Validation-corrected imputed estimates were 3%, 11%, 8%, 79%, and 92%, respectively. There were no major differences between articles published in 2019 and non-COVID-19 articles in 2021. In 2021, non-COVID-19 articles had more data sharing (12%) than COVID-19 articles (4%).

CONCLUSIONS

Data sharing, code sharing, and registration are very uncommon in infectious disease specialty journals. Increased transparency is required.

Clinical Spectrum, Radiological Findings, and Outcomes of Severe Toxoplasmosis in Immunocompetent Hosts: A Systematic Review

Background: Accumulating evidence suggests that toxoplasmosis in immunocompetent hosts can be severe and life-threatening. Methods: We performed a systematic review of severe toxoplasmosis cases in immunocompetent patients to gain insight into the epidemiology, clinical characteristics, radiological findings, and outcomes of these cases. We classified severe toxoplasmosis as cases with the symptomatic involvement of target organs (the lungs, central nervous system (CNS), and heart), disseminated disease, prolonged disease (>3 months), or a fatal outcome. Our primary analysis focused on cases published from 1985–2022 to avoid confounding with cases in AIDS patients. Results: We identified 82 pertinent articles (1985–2022) with a total of 117 eligible cases; the top five countries for these cases were French Guiana (20%), France (15%), Colombia (9%), India (9%), and Brazil (7%). Overall, 44% (51/117) of cases had pulmonary involvement, 39% (46/117) CNS, 31% (36/117) cardiac, 24% (28/117) disseminated disease, 2% (2/117) had prolonged disease, and 8% (9/117) of patients died. More than one organ was involved in 26% (31/117) of cases. Eighty-four percent (98/117) of cases occurred in the context of a recent acute primary Toxoplasma infection; for the remaining, the exact timing of infection was unclear. Genotyping data were very sparse. Among those reporting genotyping data, 96% (22/23) were caused by atypical non-type II strains; one case was caused by a type-II strain. Only half of the cases reported risk factors. The most common risk factors were eating raw/undercooked meat or eating game meat (47% (28/60)), drinking untreated water (37% (22/60)), or living in a toxoplasmosis high-prevalence area (38% (23/60)). For the 51 pulmonary cases, the main clinical presentation was pneumonia or pleural effusions in 94% (48/51) and respiratory failure in 47% (24/51). For the 46 CNS cases, the main clinical presentation was encephalitis in 54% (25/46), meningitis in 13% (6/46), focal neurologic findings in 24% (11/46), cranial nerve palsies in 17% (8/46), Guillain–Barre syndrome or Miller Fisher syndrome in 7% (3/46), and Brown–Sequard syndrome in 2% (1/46) of cases; more than one clinical manifestation could also be present. Among the 41 CNS cases reporting the CNS imaging findings, 68% (28/41) had focal supratentorial lesions and 7% (3/41) had focal infratentorial lesions. Brain abscess-like/mass-like lesions were seen in 51% (21/41) of cases. For the 36 cardiac cases, the main clinical presentation was myocarditis in 75% (27/36), pericarditis in 50% (18/36), heart failure and/or cardiogenic shock in 19% (7/36), and cardiac arrhythmias in 22% (8/36); more than one manifestation could also be present. Illness was critical in 49% (44/90) of cases intensive care unit care was needed in 54% (29/54) of cases among those reporting this information, and 9 patients died. Conclusion: The diagnosis of severe toxoplasmosis in immunocompetent hosts can be challenging. Toxoplasmosis should be considered in the differential diagnosis of immunocompetent patients presenting with severe illness of unclear etiology with pulmonary, cardiac, CNS, or multiorgan involvement/failure, or prolonged febrile illness, even in the absence of common exposure risk factors or common manifestations of toxoplasmosis (e.g., fever, mononucleosis-like illness, lymphadenopathy, and chorioretinitis). Fatal outcomes can also rarely occur in immunocompetent patients. Prompt initiation of anti-Toxoplasma treatment can be lifesaving.

Differential COVID-19 infection rates in children, adults, and elderly: Systematic review and meta-analysis of 38 pre-vaccination national seroprevalence studies

Background

Debate exists about whether extra protection of elderly and other vulnerable individuals is feasible in COVID-19. We aimed to assess the relative infection rates in the elderly vs the non-elderly and, secondarily, in children vs adults.

Methods

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of seroprevalence studies conducted in the pre-vaccination era. We identified representative national studies without high risk of bias through SeroTracker and PubMed searches (last updated May 17, 2022). We noted seroprevalence estimates for children, non-elderly adults, and elderly adults, using cut-offs of 20 and 60 years (or as close to these ages, if they were unavailable) and compared them between different age groups.

Results

We included 38 national seroprevalence studies from 36 different countries comprising 826 963 participants. Twenty-six of these studies also included pediatric populations and twenty-five were from high-income countries. The median ratio of seroprevalence in elderly vs non-elderly adults (or non-elderly in general, if pediatric and adult population data were not offered separately) was 0.90-0.95 in different analyses, with large variability across studies. In five studies (all in high-income countries), we observed significant protection of the elderly with a ratio of <0.40, with a median of 0.83 in high-income countries and 1.02 elsewhere. The median ratio of seroprevalence in children vs adults was 0.89 and only one study showed a significant ratio of <0.40. The main limitation of our study is the inaccuracies and biases in seroprevalence studies.

Conclusions

Precision shielding of elderly community-dwelling populations before the availability of vaccines was indicated in some high-income countries, but most countries failed to achieve any substantial focused protection.

Registration

Open Science Framework (available at: https://osf.io/xvupr).

Age-stratified infection fatality rate of COVID-19 in the non-elderly population

The largest burden of COVID-19 is carried by the elderly, and persons living in nursing homes are particularly vulnerable. However, 94% of the global population is younger than 70 years and 86% is younger than 60 years. The objective of this study was to accurately estimate the infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 among non-elderly people in the absence of vaccination or prior infection. In systematic searches in SeroTracker and PubMed (protocol: https://osf.io/xvupr), we identified 40 eligible national seroprevalence studies covering 38 countries with pre-vaccination seroprevalence data. For 29 countries (24 high-income, 5 others), publicly available age-stratified COVID-19 death data and age-stratified seroprevalence information were available and were included in the primary analysis. The IFRs had a median of 0.034% (interquartile range (IQR) 0.013-0.056%) for the 0-59 years old population, and 0.095% (IQR 0.036-0.119%) for the 0-69 years old. The median IFR was 0.0003% at 0-19 years, 0.002% at 20-29 years, 0.011% at 30-39 years, 0.035% at 40-49 years, 0.123% at 50-59 years, and 0.506% at 60-69 years. IFR increases approximately 4 times every 10 years. Including data from another 9 countries with imputed age distribution of COVID-19 deaths yielded median IFR of 0.025-0.032% for 0-59 years and 0.063-0.082% for 0-69 years. Meta-regression analyses also suggested global IFR of 0.03% and 0.07%, respectively in these age groups. The current analysis suggests a much lower pre-vaccination IFR in non-elderly populations than previously suggested. Large differences did exist between countries and may reflect differences in comorbidities and other factors. These estimates provide a baseline from which to fathom further IFR declines with the widespread use of vaccination, prior infections, and evolution of new variants.

Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Adults and Severe Toxoplasmosis: Similar Clinical Presentations, Potentially Severe Outcomes

We report a case of a 21-year-old previously healthy male who developed severe toxoplasmosis with chorioretinitis and myositis two months after receiving corticosteroids for presumed multisystem inflammatory syndrome of adults (MIS-A), in the setting of a recently acquired acute Toxoplasma infection, likely acquired during a trip to Latin America.

Change in age distribution of COVID-19 deaths with the introduction of COVID-19 vaccination

OBJECTIVES

Most countries initially deployed COVID-19 vaccines preferentially in elderly populations. We aimed to evaluate whether population-level vaccine effectiveness is heralded by an increase in the relative proportion of deaths among non-elderly populations that were less covered by vaccination programs.

ELIGIBLE DATA

We collected data from 40 countries on age-stratified COVID-19 deaths during the vaccination period (1/14/2021-5/31/2021) and two control periods (entire pre-vaccination period and excluding the first wave).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

We meta-analyzed the proportion of deaths in different age groups in vaccination versus control periods in (1) countries with low vaccination rates; (2) countries with age-independent vaccination policies; and (3) countries with standard age-dependent vaccination policies.

RESULTS

Countries that prioritized vaccination among older people saw an increasing share of deaths among 0-69 year old people in the vaccination versus the two control periods (summary proportion ratio 1.32 [95 CI% 1.24-1.41] and 1.35 [95 CI% 1.26-1.44)]. No such change was seen on average in countries with age-independent vaccination policies (1.05 [95 CI% 0.78-1.41 and 0.97 [95 CI% 0.95-1.00], respectively) and limited vaccination (0.93 [95 CI% 0.85-1.01] and 0.95 [95 CI% 0.87-1.03], respectively). Proportion ratios were associated with the difference of vaccination rates in elderly versus non-elderly people. No significant changes occurred in the share of deaths in age 0-49 among all 0-69 deaths in the vaccination versus pre-vaccination periods.

CONCLUSIONS

The substantial shift in the age distribution of COVID-19 deaths in countries that rapidly implemented vaccination predominantly among elderly provides evidence for the population level-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination and a favorable evolution of the pandemic towards endemicity with fewer elderly deaths.

Infectious Diseases-Related Hospitalizations During Oral Polio Vaccine(OPV) and non-OPV immunization periods: An Empirical Evaluation of all Hospital Discharges in California(1985-2010)

BACKGROUND

Live attenuated vaccines such as oral polio vaccine (OPV) can stimulate innate immunity and may have off-target protective effects on other pathogens. We aimed to address this hypothesis by examining changes in infectious diseases (ID)-related hospitalizations in all hospital discharges in California during OPV-(1985-1996) and non-OPV-immunization periods (2000-2010).

METHODS

We searched the OSHPD (Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development) database for all hospital discharges with any ID-related discharge diagnosis code during 1985-2010. We compared the proportion of ID-related hospitalizations (with at least one ID-related discharge diagnosis) among total hospitalizations during OPV immunization (1985-1996) vs non-OPV immunization (2000-2010) periods.

RESULTS

There were 19,281,039 ID-related hospitalizations (8,464,037 with an ID-related discharge-diagnosis as the principal discharge diagnosis for the hospitalization) among 98,117,475 hospitalizations in 1985-2010; 9,520,810 ID-hospitalizations/43,456,484 total hospitalizations in 2000-2010 vs 7,526,957/43,472,796 in 1985-1996. The RR for ID-related hospitalizations in 2000-2010 vs 1985-1996 was 1.27(95% CI: 1.26-1.27) for all diagnoses and 1.15(95% CI: 1.15-1.16) for principal diagnoses. Increases also existed in the proportion of lower respiratory and gastrointestinal infections.

DISCUSSION

The proportion of ID-related hospitalizations was lower in the OPV-immunization period compared to the period after OPV was discontinued. When focused only on hospitalizations with ID as the principal discharge diagnosis the signal remained significant but was smaller. These findings require replication in additional studies.

Large Pediatric Randomized Clinical Trials in ClinicalTrials.gov

BACKGROUND

Large, randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are essential in answering pivotal questions in child health.

METHODS

We created a bird's eye view of all large, noncluster, nonvaccine pediatric RCTs with ≥1000 participants registered in ClinicalTrials.gov (last search January 9, 2020). We analyzed the funding sources, countries, outcomes, publication status, and correlation with the pediatric global burden of disease (GBD) for eligible trials.

RESULTS

We identified 247 large, nonvaccine, noncluster pediatric RCTs. Only 17 mega-trials with ≥5000 participants existed. Industry funding was involved in only 52 (21%) and exclusively funded 47 (19%) trials. Participants were from high-income countries (HICs) in 100 (40%) trials, from lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) in 122 (49%) trials, and from both HICs and LMICs in 19 (8%) trials; 6 trials did not report participants' country location. Of trials conducted in LMIC, 43% of investigators were from HICs. Of non-LMIC participants trials (HIC or HIC and LMIC), 39% were multicountry trials versus 11% of exclusively LMIC participants trials. Few trials (18%; 44 of 247) targeted mortality as an outcome. 35% (58 of 164) of the trials completed ≥12 months were unpublished at the time of our assessment. The number of trials per disease category correlated well with pediatric GBD overall (ρ = 0.76) and in LMICs (ρ = 0.69), but not in HICs (ρ = 0.29).

CONCLUSIONS

Incentivization of investigator collaborations across diverse country settings, timely publication of results of large pediatric RCTs, and alignment with the pediatric GBD are of pivotal importance to ultimately improve child health globally.

Late Diagnosis of Congenital Toxoplasmosis with Macrocephaly in Dizygotic Twins after Incidental Detection of Leukocoria: A Case Report

Untreated congenital toxoplasmosis remains an important cause of neurologic and ocular disease worldwide. However, congenitally infected infants may not have signs and symptoms their physicians recognize, leading to delayed diagnosis and missed opportunities for treatment. We describe a pair of twins diagnosed with congenital toxoplasmosis at 11 months of age following incidental detection of leukocoria in one twin.

Comprehensive mapping of local and diaspora scientists: a database and analysis of 63951 Greek scientists

Research policy and planning for a given country may benefit from reliable data on both its scientific workforce as well as the diaspora of scientists for countries with substantial brain drain. Here we use a systematic approach using Scopus to generate a comprehensive country-level database of all scientists in Greece. Moreover, we expand that database to include also Greek diaspora scientists. The database that we have compiled includes 63951 scientists who have published at least 5 papers indexed in Scopus. Of those, 35116 have an affiliation in Greece. We validate the sensitivity and specificity of the database against different control sets of scientists. We also analyze the scientific disciplines of these scientists according to the Science Metrix classification (174 subfield disciplines) and provide detailed data on each of the 63951 scientists using multiple citation indicators and a composite thereof. These analyses demonstrate differential concentrations in specific subfields for the local versus the diaspora cohorts, as well as an advantage of the diaspora cohort in terms of citation indicators especially among top-impact researchers. The approach that we have taken can be applied to map also the scientific workforce of other countries and nations for evaluation, planning and policy purposes.

Peer Review

https://publons.com/publon/10.1162/qss_a_00136

Second versus first wave of COVID-19 deaths: Shifts in age distribution and in nursing home fatalities

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether the age distribution of COVID-19 deaths and the share of deaths in nursing homes changed in the second versus the first pandemic wave.

ELIGIBLE DATA

We considered all countries that had at least 4000 COVID-19 deaths occurring as of January 14, 2021, at least 200 COVID-19 deaths occurring in each of the two epidemic wave periods; and which had sufficiently detailed information available on the age distribution of these deaths. We also considered countries with data available on COVID-19 deaths of nursing home residents for the two waves.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Change in the second wave versus the first wave in the proportion of COVID-19 deaths occurring in people <50 years ("young deaths") among all COVID-19 deaths and among COVID-19 deaths in people <70 years old; and change in the proportion of COVID-19 deaths in nursing home residents among all COVID-19 deaths.

RESULTS

Data on age distribution were available for 14 eligible countries. Individuals <50 years old had small absolute difference in their share of the total COVID-19 deaths in the two waves across 13 high-income countries (absolute differences 0.0-0.4%). Their proportion was higher in Ukraine, but it decreased markedly in the second wave. The proportion of young deaths was lower in the second versus the first wave (summary prevalence ratio 0.81, 95% CI 0.71-0.92) with large between-country heterogeneity. The proportion of young deaths among deaths <70 years did not differ significantly across the two waves (summary prevalence ratio 0.96, 95% CI 0.86-1.06). Eligible data on nursing home COVID-19 deaths were available for 11 countries. The share of COVID-19 deaths that were accounted by nursing home residents decreased in the second wave significantly and substantially in 8 countries (prevalence ratio estimates: 0.36 to 0.78), remained the same in Denmark and Norway and markedly increased in Australia.

CONCLUSIONS

In the examined countries, age distribution of COVID-19 deaths has been fairly similar in the second versus the first wave, but the contribution of COVID-19 deaths in nursing home residents to total fatalities has decreased in most countries in the second wave.

Assessment of transparency indicators across the biomedical literature: How open is open?

Recent concerns about the reproducibility of science have led to several calls for more open and transparent research practices and for the monitoring of potential improvements over time. However, with tens of thousands of new biomedical articles published per week, manually mapping and monitoring changes in transparency is unrealistic. We present an open-source, automated approach to identify 5 indicators of transparency (data sharing, code sharing, conflicts of interest disclosures, funding disclosures, and protocol registration) and apply it across the entire open access biomedical literature of 2.75 million articles on PubMed Central (PMC). Our results indicate remarkable improvements in some (e.g., conflict of interest [COI] disclosures and funding disclosures), but not other (e.g., protocol registration and code sharing) areas of transparency over time, and map transparency across fields of science, countries, journals, and publishers. This work has enabled the creation of a large, integrated, and openly available database to expedite further efforts to monitor, understand, and promote transparency and reproducibility in science.

Toxoplasmosis in Pediatric Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation Patients

Infection due to the protozoa Toxoplasma gondii can be life-threatening in hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) recipients. Most cases of toxoplasmosis in HSCT recipients result from reactivation of latent infection in individuals who were Toxoplasma-seropositive before transplantation and did not receive appropriate prophylaxis. Pretransplantation screening with Toxoplasma IgG and IgM antibodies is suggested for all allogeneic HSCT recipients and their donors and all autologous HSCT recipients. Prevention of toxoplasmosis in T. gondii-seropositive HSCT recipients requires primary prophylaxis, preemptive screening, or both. Trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMX) is the preferred agent for Toxoplasma prophylaxis and should be continued for 6 months or until the patient is no longer receiving immunosuppression, whichever is longer, assuming that immune reconstitution has occurred. Preemptive weekly screening with whole blood Toxoplasma PCR should be considered for seropositive HSCT recipients if prophylaxis cannot be given or if prophylaxis other than TMP-SMX is used. The signs, symptoms, and radiographic findings of toxoplasmosis in HSCT recipients can be nonspecific, and the diagnosis requires a high degree of suspicion. Common presentations include fever, encephalopathy with mental status changes or seizures, and pneumonia. A Toxoplasma PCR analysis from whole blood (and other body fluids/tissues according to clinical symptoms) should be obtained in patients in whom there is a concern for toxoplasmosis. Treatment with oral pyrimethamine, sulfadiazine, and leucovorin for at least 6 weeks is the first-line therapy and should be followed by secondary prophylaxis. In this article, we review the published literature regarding the epidemiology, clinical presentation, treatment, and prevention of toxoplasmosis in HSCT recipients.

The worldwide clinical trial research response to the COVID-19 pandemic - the first 100 days

Background: Never before have clinical trials drawn as much public attention as those testing interventions for COVID-19. We aimed to describe the worldwide COVID-19 clinical research response and its evolution over the first 100 days of the pandemic. Methods: Descriptive analysis of planned, ongoing or completed trials by April 9, 2020 testing any intervention to treat or prevent COVID-19, systematically identified in trial registries, preprint servers, and literature databases. A survey was conducted of all trials to assess their recruitment status up to July 6, 2020. Results: Most of the 689 trials (overall target sample size 396,366) were small (median sample size 120; interquartile range [IQR] 60-300) but randomized (75.8%; n=522) and were often conducted in China (51.1%; n=352) or the USA (11%; n=76). 525 trials (76.2%) planned to include 155,571 hospitalized patients, and 25 (3.6%) planned to include 96,821 health-care workers. Treatments were evaluated in 607 trials (88.1%), frequently antivirals (n=144) or antimalarials (n=112); 78 trials (11.3%) focused on prevention, including 14 vaccine trials. No trial investigated social distancing. Interventions tested in 11 trials with >5,000 participants were also tested in 169 smaller trials (median sample size 273; IQR 90-700). Hydroxychloroquine alone was investigated in 110 trials. While 414 trials (60.0%) expected completion in 2020, only 35 trials (4.1%; 3,071 participants) were completed by July 6. Of 112 trials with detailed recruitment information, 55 had recruited <20% of the targeted sample; 27 between 20-50%; and 30 over 50% (median 14.8% [IQR 2.0-62.0%]). Conclusions: The size and speed of the COVID-19 clinical trials agenda is unprecedented. However, most trials were small investigating a small fraction of treatment options. The feasibility of this research agenda is questionable, and many trials may end in futility, wasting research resources. Much better coordination is needed to respond to global health threats.

The worldwide clinical trial research response to the COVID-19 pandemic - the first 100 days

Background: Never before have clinical trials drawn as much public attention as those testing interventions for COVID-19. We aimed to describe the worldwide COVID-19 clinical research response and its evolution over the first 100 days of the pandemic. Methods: Descriptive analysis of planned, ongoing or completed trials by April 9, 2020 testing any intervention to treat or prevent COVID-19, systematically identified in trial registries, preprint servers, and literature databases. A survey was conducted of all trials to assess their recruitment status up to July 6, 2020. Results: Most of the 689 trials (overall target sample size 396,366) were small (median sample size 120; interquartile range [IQR] 60-300) but randomized (75.8%; n=522) and were often conducted in China (51.1%; n=352) or the USA (11%; n=76). 525 trials (76.2%) planned to include 155,571 hospitalized patients, and 25 (3.6%) planned to include 96,821 health-care workers. Treatments were evaluated in 607 trials (88.1%), frequently antivirals (n=144) or antimalarials (n=112); 78 trials (11.3%) focused on prevention, including 14 vaccine trials. No trial investigated social distancing. Interventions tested in 11 trials with >5,000 participants were also tested in 169 smaller trials (median sample size 273; IQR 90-700). Hydroxychloroquine alone was investigated in 110 trials. While 414 trials (60.0%) expected completion in 2020, only 35 trials (4.1%; 3,071 participants) were completed by July 6. Of 112 trials with detailed recruitment information, 55 had recruited <20% of the targeted sample; 27 between 20-50%; and 30 over 50% (median 14.8% [IQR 2.0-62.0%]). Conclusions: The size and speed of the COVID-19 clinical trials agenda is unprecedented. However, most trials were small investigating a small fraction of treatment options. The feasibility of this research agenda is questionable, and many trials may end in futility, wasting research resources. Much better coordination is needed to respond to global health threats.

Population-level COVID-19 mortality risk for non-elderly individuals overall and for non-elderly individuals without underlying diseases in pandemic epicenters

OBJECTIVE

To provide estimates of the relative rate of COVID-19 death in people <65 years old versus older individuals in the general population, the absolute risk of COVID-19 death at the population level during the first epidemic wave, and the proportion of COVID-19 deaths in non-elderly people without underlying diseases in epicenters of the pandemic.

ELIGIBLE DATA

Cross-sectional survey of countries and US states with at least 800 COVID-19 deaths as of April 24, 2020 and with information on the number of deaths in people with age <65. Data were available for 14 countries (Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK) and 13 US states (California, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania). We also examined available data on COVID-19 deaths in people with age <65 and no underlying diseases.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Proportion of COVID-19 deaths in people <65 years old; relative mortality rate of COVID-19 death in people <65 versus ≥65 years old; absolute risk of COVID-19 death in people <65 and in those ≥80 years old in the general population as of June 17, 2020; absolute COVID-19 mortality rate expressed as equivalent of mortality rate from driving a motor vehicle.

RESULTS

Individuals with age <65 account for 4.5-11.2% of all COVID-19 deaths in European countries and Canada, 8.3-22.7% in the US locations, and were the majority in India and Mexico. People <65 years old had 30- to 100-fold lower risk of COVID-19 death than those ≥65 years old in 11 European countries and Canada, 16- to 52-fold lower risk in US locations, and less than 10-fold in India and Mexico. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death as of June 17, 2020 for people <65 years old in high-income countries ranged from 10 (Germany) to 349 per million (New Jersey) and it was 5 per million in India and 96 per million in Mexico. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death for people ≥80 years old ranged from 0.6 (Florida) to 17.5 per thousand (Connecticut). The COVID-19 mortality rate in people <65 years old during the period of fatalities from the epidemic was equivalent to the mortality rate from driving between 4 and 82 miles per day for 13 countries and 5 states, and was higher (equivalent to the mortality rate from driving 106-483 miles per day) for 8 other states and the UK. People <65 years old without underlying predisposing conditions accounted for only 0.7-3.6% of all COVID-19 deaths in France, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Georgia, and New York City and 17.7% in Mexico.

CONCLUSIONS

People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in pandemic epicenters and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.

Population-level COVID-19 mortality risk for non-elderly individuals overall and for non-elderly individuals without underlying diseases in pandemic epicenters

OBJECTIVE

To provide estimates of the relative rate of COVID-19 death in people <65 years old versus older individuals in the general population, the absolute risk of COVID-19 death at the population level during the first epidemic wave, and the proportion of COVID-19 deaths in non-elderly people without underlying diseases in epicenters of the pandemic.

ELIGIBLE DATA

Cross-sectional survey of countries and US states with at least 800 COVID-19 deaths as of April 24, 2020 and with information on the number of deaths in people with age <65. Data were available for 14 countries (Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK) and 13 US states (California, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania). We also examined available data on COVID-19 deaths in people with age <65 and no underlying diseases.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Proportion of COVID-19 deaths in people <65 years old; relative mortality rate of COVID-19 death in people <65 versus ≥65 years old; absolute risk of COVID-19 death in people <65 and in those ≥80 years old in the general population as of June 17, 2020; absolute COVID-19 mortality rate expressed as equivalent of mortality rate from driving a motor vehicle.

RESULTS

Individuals with age <65 account for 4.5-11.2% of all COVID-19 deaths in European countries and Canada, 8.3-22.7% in the US locations, and were the majority in India and Mexico. People <65 years old had 30- to 100-fold lower risk of COVID-19 death than those ≥65 years old in 11 European countries and Canada, 16- to 52-fold lower risk in US locations, and less than 10-fold in India and Mexico. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death as of June 17, 2020 for people <65 years old in high-income countries ranged from 10 (Germany) to 349 per million (New Jersey) and it was 5 per million in India and 96 per million in Mexico. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death for people ≥80 years old ranged from 0.6 (Florida) to 17.5 per thousand (Connecticut). The COVID-19 mortality rate in people <65 years old during the period of fatalities from the epidemic was equivalent to the mortality rate from driving between 4 and 82 miles per day for 13 countries and 5 states, and was higher (equivalent to the mortality rate from driving 106-483 miles per day) for 8 other states and the UK. People <65 years old without underlying predisposing conditions accounted for only 0.7-3.6% of all COVID-19 deaths in France, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Georgia, and New York City and 17.7% in Mexico.

CONCLUSIONS

People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in pandemic epicenters and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.

Congenital microcephaly hospitalizations in California infants: 1999-2013

INTRODUCTION

Population-level changes in microcephaly incidence risk (IR) could signal circulation of neurotropic pathogens or potential emerging teratogen exposure.

METHODS

In this retrospective population cohort study, we estimated the IR of hospitalizations with a microcephaly ICD-9-CM discharge diagnosis code among infants ≤1 year over a 15-year period (1999-2013) using the Electronic Health Record (EHR) database from all hospital discharges in California from the Office of Statewide Hospital Planning and Development (OSHPD) database. We calculated the overall and yearly IRs per 10,000 live births (LBs) and per 10,000 hospitalizations in infants ≤1 year, and explored the impact in the IR estimates when children with microcephaly associated comorbidities were excluded or not.

RESULTS

Among 8,860,153 hospital discharges of infants ≤1 year in the OSHPD database over this 15 year period, we identified 6,004 hospitalizations with a microcephaly discharge diagnosis code; 3,526 of those were in neonates ≤30 days. The IR of microcephaly hospitalizations for infants ≤1 year was 7.70/10,000 LB (for neonates it was 4.52/10,000 LB) and 6.78 per 10,000 hospitalizations ≤1 year. There was large heterogeneity in the yearly microcephaly IRs (I² = 66.6%).

DISCUSSION

EHR collected data could be used as a complementary approach to track epidemiologic changes in microcephaly IRs. However, standardization in the use of microcephaly discharge diagnosis code and harmonization in the types of additional comorbidities to be excluded across analyses is mandatory to allow for prompt identification of true changes in microcephaly rates over time.

Evaluation of Three Point-of-Care Tests for Detection of Toxoplasma Immunoglobulin IgG and IgM in the United States: Proof of Concept and Challenges

Background

The cost of conventional serological testing for toxoplasmosis discourages universal adoption of prenatal monthly screening programs to prevent congenital toxoplasmosis. Point-of-care (POC) technology may constitute a cost-effective approach.

Methods

We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of 3 Toxoplasma POC tests against gold-standard testing performed at Palo Alto Medical Foundation Toxoplasma Serology Laboratory (PAMF-TSL). The POC tests included the following: Toxo IgG/IgM Rapid Test (Biopanda) and the OnSite Toxo IgG/IgM Combo-Rapid-test that detect IgG and IgM separately, and the Toxoplasma ICT-IgG-IgM-bk (LDBIO) that detects either or both immunoglobulin IgG/IgM in combination. Samples were selected from PAMF-TSL biobank (n = 210) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Toxoplasma 1998 Human Serum Panel (n = 100). Based on PAMF-TSL testing, Toxoplasma-infection status was classified in 4 categories: acute infections (n = 85), chronic infections (n = 85), false-positive Toxoplasma IgM (n = 60), and seronegative (n = 80). The POC testing was performed in duplicate following manufacturer's instructions by investigators blinded to PAMF-TSL results. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated.

Results

A total of 1860 POC tests were performed. For detection of Toxoplasma IgG, sensitivity was 100% (170 of 170; 95% confidence interval [CI], 97.8%-100%) for all 3 POC kits; specificity was also comparable at 96.3% (77 of 80; 95% CI, 89.5%-98.9%), 97.5% (78 of 80; 95% CI, 91.3%-99.6%), and 98.8% (79 of 80; 95% CI, 93.2%-99.9%). However, sensitivity for detection of Toxoplasma IgM varied significantly across POC tests: Biopanda, 62.2% (51 of 82; 95% CI, 51.4%-71.9%); OnSite, 28% (23 of 82; 95% CI, 19.5%-38.6%); and LDBIO combined IgG/IgM, 100% (82 of 82; 95% CI, 95.5%-100%). Diagnostic accuracy was significantly higher for the LDBIO POC kit. The POC kits did not exhibit cross-reactivity for false-positive Toxoplasma-IgM sera.

Conclusions

The 3 evaluated POC kits revealed optimal sensitivity for Toxoplasma-IgG antibodies. The LDBIO-POC test exhibited 100% sensitivity for the combined detection of IgG/IgM in acute and chronic Toxoplasma infection. Biopanda and Onsite POC tests exhibited poor sensitivity for Toxoplasma-IgM detection.

Immunogenicity and safety of the multicomponent meningococcal B vaccine (4CMenB) in children and adolescents: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The multicomponent meningococcal serogroup B vaccine (4CMenB) has been licensed in more than 35 countries. However, uncertainties remain about the lowest number of doses required to induce satisfactory, persistent immune responses. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to provide quantitative estimates for the immunogenicity, persistence of immunogenicity, and safety of 4CMenB vaccine in children and adolescents.

METHODS

For this systematic review and meta-analyses (proportion, head to head, and network), we searched MEDLINE, Scopus, Embase, and ClinicalTrials.gov from database inception to June 30, 2017, for randomised trials that compared the immunogenicity or safety of the 4CMenB vaccine with its originator meningococcal B recombinant vaccine or routine vaccines in children or adolescents. For proportion meta-analyses, we also included single arm trials and follow-up studies of randomised controlled trials. Trials that assessed immunogenicity against at least one of four Neisseria meningitidis serogroup B reference strains (44-76/SL, 5/99, NZ98/254, and M10713) and included participants younger than 18 years who had received two or more doses of the 4CMenB vaccine were eligible for inclusion. We requested individual patient-level data from study authors and extracted data from published reports and online trial registries. We did meta-analyses to assess 4CMenB safety and immunogenicity against the four reference strains 30 days after a primary immunisation course (three doses for children, two doses for adolescents), 30 days after the primary course plus one booster dose (children only), 6 months or more after primary course, and 6 months or more after the booster dose.

FINDINGS

736 non-duplicate records were screened, and ten randomised trials and eight follow-on extension trials on 4CMenB met the inclusion criteria. In intention-to-treat analyses, the overall proportion of children and adolescents who achieved seroconversion 30 days after the primary course of 4CMenB was 92% (95% CI 89-95 [I²=95%, p<0·0001]) for the 44/76-SL strain, 91% (87-95 [I²=95%, p<0·0001]) for the 5/99 strain, 84% (77-90 [I²=97%, p<0·0001]) for the NZ98-254 strain, and 87% (68-99 [I²=97%, p<0·0001]) for the M10713 strain. 6 months after the primary course, the immunogenicity remained adequate to high against all three tested strains (5/99, 44/76-SL, and NZ98/254) in adolescents (≥77%), and against two of four strains (5/99 and 44/76-SL) in children (≥67%): the proportion of patients who achieved seroconversion substantially declined for M10713 (<50%) and NZ98/254 (<35%). A booster dose re-enhanced the proportion of patients who achieved seroconversion (≥93% for all strains). However, immunogenicity remained high 6 months after the booster dose for strains 5/99 (95%) and M10713 (75%) only, whereas the proportion of patients who achieved seroconversion against strains 44/76-SL and NZ98/254 returned to similar proportions recorded 6 months after the primary course (62% for 44/76-SL, 35% for NZ98/254). The incidence of potentially vaccine-related, acute serious adverse events in individuals receiving 4CMenB was low (5·4 per 1000 individuals), but was significantly higher than routine vaccines (1·2 per 1000 individuals).

INTERPRETATION

4CMenB has an acceptable short-term safety profile. The primary course is sufficient to achieve a satisfactory immune response within 30 days of vaccination. A booster dose is required for children to prolong the protection against strain M10713, and the long-term immunogenicity against strain NZ98/254 remains suboptimal.

FUNDING

None.

Comparison of nuisance parameters in pediatric versus adult randomized trials: a meta-epidemiologic empirical evaluation

Background

We wished to compare the nuisance parameters of pediatric vs. adult randomized-trials (RCTs) and determine if the latter can be used in sample size computations of the former.

Methods

In this meta-epidemiologic empirical evaluation we examined meta-analyses from the Cochrane Database of Systematic-Reviews, with at least one pediatric-RCT and at least one adult-RCT. Within each meta-analysis of binary efficacy-outcomes, we calculated the pooled-control-group event-rate (CER) across separately all pediatric and adult-trials, using random-effect models and subsequently calculated the control-group event-rate risk-ratio (CER-RR) of the pooled-pediatric-CERs vs. adult-CERs. Within each meta-analysis with continuous outcomes we calculated the pooled-control-group effect standard deviation (CE-SD) across separately all pediatric and adult-trials and subsequently calculated the CE-SD-ratio of the pooled-pediatric-CE-SDs vs. adult-CE-SDs. We then calculated across all meta-analyses the pooled-CER-RRs and pooled-CE-SD-ratios (primary endpoints) and the pooled-magnitude of effect-sizes of CER-RRs and CE-SD-ratios using REMs. A ratio < 1 indicates that pediatric trials have smaller nuisance parameters than adult trials.

Results

We analyzed 208 meta-analyses (135 for binary-outcomes, 73 for continuous-outcomes). For binary outcomes, pediatric-RCTs had on average 10% smaller CERs than adult-RCTs (summary-CE-RR: 0.90; 95% CI: 0.83, 0.98). For mortality outcomes the summary-CE-RR was 0.48 (95% CIs: 0.31, 0.74). For continuous outcomes, pediatric-RCTs had on average 26% smaller CE-SDs than adult-RCTs (summary-CE-SD-ratio: 0.74).

Conclusions

Clinically relevant differences in nuisance parameters between pediatric and adult trials were detected. These differences have implications for design of future studies. Extrapolation of nuisance parameters for sample-sizes calculations from adult-trials to pediatric-trials should be cautiously done.

Comparative evidence on harms in pediatric randomized clinical trials from less developed versus more developed countries is limited

OBJECTIVES

Evaluate comparative harm rates from medical interventions in pediatric randomized clinical trials (RCTs) from more developed (MDCs) and less developed countries (LDCs).

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Meta-epidemiologic empirical evaluation of Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (June 2014) meta-analyses reporting clinically important harm-outcomes (severe adverse events [AEs], discontinuations due to AEs, any AE, and mortality) that included at least one pediatric RCT from MDCs and at least one from LDCs. We estimated relative odds ratios (RORs) for each harm, within each meta-analysis, between RCTs from MDCs and LDCs and calculated random-effects-summary-RORs (sRORs) for each harm across multiple meta-analyses.

RESULTS

Only 1% (26/2,363) of meta-analyses with clinically important harm-outcomes in the entire Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews included pediatric RCTs both from MDCs and LDCs. We analyzed 26 meta-analyses with 244 data sets from pediatric RCTs, 116 from MDCs and 128 from LDCs (64 and 66 unique RCTs respectively). The summary ROR was 0.92 (95% confidence intervals: 0.78-1.08) for severe AEs; 1.13 (0.54-2.34) for discontinuations due to AEs; 1.10 (0.77-1.59) for any AE; and 0.99 (0.61-1.61) for mortality and for the all-harms-combined-end point 0.96 (0.83-1.10). Differences of ROR-point-estimates ≥2-fold between MDCs and LDCs were identified in 35% of meta-analyses.

CONCLUSION

We found no major systematic differences in harm rates in pediatric trials between MDCs and LDCs, but data on harms in children were overall very limited.

Point-of-care testing for Toxoplasma gondii IgG/IgM using Toxoplasma ICT IgG-IgM test with sera from the United States and implications for developing countries

Background

Congenital toxoplasmosis is a serious but preventable and treatable disease. Gestational screening facilitates early detection and treatment of primary acquisition. Thus, fetal infection can be promptly diagnosed and treated and outcomes can be improved.

Methods

We tested 180 sera with the Toxoplasma ICT IgG-IgM point-of-care (POC) test. Sera were from 116 chronically infected persons (48 serotype II; 14 serotype I-III; 25 serotype I-IIIa; 28 serotype Atypical, haplogroup 12; 1 not typed). These represent strains of parasites infecting mothers of congenitally infected children in the U.S. 51 seronegative samples and 13 samples from recently infected persons known to be IgG/IgM positive within the prior 2.7 months also were tested. Interpretation was confirmed by two blinded observers. A comparison of costs for POC vs. commercial laboratory testing methods was performed.

Results

We found that this new Toxoplasma ICT IgG-IgM POC test was highly sensitive (100%) and specific (100%) for distinguishing IgG/IgM-positive from negative sera. Use of such reliable POC tests can be cost-saving and benefit patients.

Conclusions

Our work demonstrates that the Toxoplasma ICT IgG-IgM test can function reliably as a point-of-care test to diagnose Toxoplasma gondii infection in the U.S. This provides an opportunity to improve maternal-fetal care by using approaches, diagnostic tools, and medicines already available. This infection has serious, lifelong consequences for infected persons and their families. From the present study, it appears a simple, low-cost POC test is now available to help prevent morbidity/disability, decrease cost, and make gestational screening feasible. It also offers new options for improved prenatal care in low- and middle-income countries.

Toxoplasmosis, a disease caused by the parasite Toxoplasma gondii, presents a major health burden in both the developed and developing world. Untreated congenital toxoplasmosis causes damage to the eye and brain, but early detection and treatment reduce transmission and disease. Fetal infection can be promptly diagnosed and treated and outcomes can be improved. Gestational screening for toxoplasmosis has international precedent. In this paper, we demonstrated that the new Toxoplasma ICT IgG-IgM test had 100% sensitivity and specificity in detecting Toxoplasma infection (N = 180 U.S. sera from uninfected persons and those with varying parasite serotypes). The use of an inexpensive, easy-to-use point-of-care test facilitates screening of pregnant women for T. gondii infection. In turn, this facilitates prompt treatment for the infection and thereby reduces the health burden caused by this disease. This provides an opportunity to improve maternal-fetal care by using approaches, diagnostic tools, and medicines already available.

Current use of routinely collected health data to complement randomized controlled trials: a meta-epidemiological survey

BACKGROUND

Studies that use routinely collected health data (RCD studies) are advocated to complement evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for comparative effectiveness research and to inform health care decisions when RCTs would be unfeasible. We aimed to evaluate the current use of routinely collected health data to complement RCT evidence.

METHODS

We searched PubMed for RCD studies published to 2010 that evaluated the comparative effectiveness of medical treatments on mortality using propensity scores. We identified RCTs of the same treatment comparisons and evaluated how frequently the RCD studies analyzed treatments that had not been compared previously in randomized trials. When RCTs did exist, we noted the claimed motivations for each RCD study. We also analyzed the citation impact of the RCD studies.

RESULTS

Of 337 eligible RCD studies identified, 231 (68.5%) analyzed treatments that had already been compared in RCTs. The study investigators rarely claimed that it would be unethical (6/337) or difficult (18/337) to perform RCTs on the same question. Evidence from RCTs was mentioned or cited by authors of 213 RCD studies. The most common motivations for conducting the RCD studies were alleged limited generalizability of trial results to the "real world" (37.6%), evaluation of specific outcomes (31.9%) or specific populations (23.5%), and inconclusive or inconsistent evidence from randomized trials (25.8%). Studies evaluating "real world" effects had the lowest citation impact.

INTERPRETATION

Most of the RCD studies we identified explored comparative treatment effects that had already been investigated in RCTs. The objective of such studies needs to shift more toward answering pivotal questions that are not supported by trial evidence or for which RCTs would be unfeasible.

Agreement of treatment effects for mortality from routinely collected data and subsequent randomized trials: meta-epidemiological survey

OBJECTIVE

To assess differences in estimated treatment effects for mortality between observational studies with routinely collected health data (RCD; that are published before trials are available) and subsequent evidence from randomized controlled trials on the same clinical question.

DESIGN

Meta-epidemiological survey.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed searched up to November 2014.

METHODS

Eligible RCD studies were published up to 2010 that used propensity scores to address confounding bias and reported comparative effects of interventions for mortality. The analysis included only RCD studies conducted before any trial was published on the same topic. The direction of treatment effects, confidence intervals, and effect sizes (odds ratios) were compared between RCD studies and randomized controlled trials. The relative odds ratio (that is, the summary odds ratio of trial(s) divided by the RCD study estimate) and the summary relative odds ratio were calculated across all pairs of RCD studies and trials. A summary relative odds ratio greater than one indicates that RCD studies gave more favorable mortality results.

RESULTS

The evaluation included 16 eligible RCD studies, and 36 subsequent published randomized controlled trials investigating the same clinical questions (with 17,275 patients and 835 deaths). Trials were published a median of three years after the corresponding RCD study. For five (31%) of the 16 clinical questions, the direction of treatment effects differed between RCD studies and trials. Confidence intervals in nine (56%) RCD studies did not include the RCT effect estimate. Overall, RCD studies showed significantly more favorable mortality estimates by 31% than subsequent trials (summary relative odds ratio 1.31 (95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.65; I(2)=0%)).

CONCLUSIONS

Studies of routinely collected health data could give different answers from subsequent randomized controlled trials on the same clinical questions, and may substantially overestimate treatment effects. Caution is needed to prevent misguided clinical decision making.

Effect of long-term antibiotic use on weight in adolescents with acne

OBJECTIVES

Antibiotics increase weight in farm animals and may cause weight gain in humans. We used electronic health records from a large primary care organization to determine the effect of antibiotics on weight and BMI in healthy adolescents with acne.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of adolescents with acne prescribed ≥4 weeks of oral antibiotics with weight measurements within 18 months pre-antibiotics and 12 months post-antibiotics. We compared within-individual changes in weight-for-age Z-scores (WAZs) and BMI-for-age Z-scores (BMIZs). We used: (i) paired t-tests to analyse changes between the last pre-antibiotics versus the first post-antibiotic measurements; (ii) piecewise-constant-mixed models to capture changes between mean measurements pre- versus post-antibiotics; (iii) piecewise-linear-mixed models to capture changes in trajectory slopes pre- versus post-antibiotics; and (iv) χ(2) tests to compare proportions of adolescents with ≥0.2 Z-scores WAZ or BMIZ increase or decrease.

RESULTS

Our cohort included 1012 adolescents with WAZs; 542 also had BMIZs. WAZs decreased post-antibiotics in all analyses [change between last WAZ pre-antibiotics versus first WAZ post-antibiotics = -0.041 Z-scores (P < 0.001); change between mean WAZ pre- versus post-antibiotics = -0.050 Z-scores (P < 0.001); change in WAZ trajectory slopes pre- versus post-antibiotics = -0.025 Z-scores/6 months (P = 0.002)]. More adolescents had a WAZ decrease post-antibiotics ≥0.2 Z-scores than an increase (26% versus 18%; P < 0.001). Trends were similar, though not statistically significant, for BMIZ changes.

CONCLUSIONS

Contrary to original expectations, long-term antibiotic use in healthy adolescents with acne was not associated with weight gain. This finding, which was consistent across all analyses, does not support a weight-promoting effect of antibiotics in adolescents.

Acute Toxoplasma gondii infection among family members in the United States

We investigated 32 families of persons with acute toxoplasmosis in which > or = 1 other family member was tested for Toxoplasma gondii infection; 18 (56%) families had > or = 1 additional family member with acute infection. Family members of persons with acute toxoplasmosis should be screened for infection, especially pregnant women and immunocompromised persons.

Safety of medical interventions in children versus adults

OBJECTIVE

Compare the risk of harm from pharmacologic interventions in pediatric versus adult randomized controlled trials (RCTs).

METHODS

We used systematic reviews from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. We considered separately 7 categories of harms/harm-related end points: severe harms, withdrawals due to harms, any harm, organ system-level harms, specific harms, withdrawals for any reason, and mortality. Systematic reviews with quantitative synthesis from at least 1 adult and 1 pediatric RCT for any of those end points were eligible. We calculated the summary odds ratio (experimental versus control intervention) in adult and pediatric trials/meta-analysis; the relative odds ratio (ROR) in adults versus children per meta-analysis; and the summary ROR (sROR) across all meta-analyses for each end point. ROR <1 means that the experimental intervention fared worse in children than adults.

RESULTS

We identified 176 meta-analyses for 52 types of harms/harm-related end points with 669 adult and 184 pediatric RCTs. Of those, 165 had sufficient data for ROR estimation. sRORs showed statistically significant discrepancy between adults and children only for headache (sROR 0.82; 95% confidence interval 0.70-0.96). Nominally significant discrepancies for specific harms were identified in 12 of 165 meta-analyses (RORs <1 in 7, ROR >1 in 5). In 36% of meta-analyses, the ROR estimates suggested twofold or greater differences between children and adults, and the 95% confidence intervals could exclude twofold differences only in 18% of meta-analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Available evidence on harms/harm-related end points from pharmacologic interventions has large uncertainty. Extrapolation of evidence from adults to children may be tenuous. Some clinically important discrepancies were identified.

Concordance of effects of medical interventions on hospital admission and readmission rates with effects on mortality

BACKGROUND

Many clinical trials examine a composite outcome of admission to hospital and death, or infer a relationship between hospital admission and survival benefit. This assumes concordance of the outcomes "hospital admission" and "death." However, whether the effects of a treatment on hospital admissions and readmissions correlate to its effect on serious outcomes such as death is unknown. We aimed to assess the correlation and concordance of effects of medical interventions on admission rates and mortality.

METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from its inception to January 2012 (issue 1, 2012) for systematic reviews of treatment comparisons that included meta-analyses for both admission and mortality outcomes. For each meta-analysis, we synthesized treatment effects on admissions and death, from respective randomized trials reporting those outcomes, using random-effects models. We then measured the concordance of directions of effect sizes and the correlation of summary estimates for the 2 outcomes.

RESULTS

We identified 61 meta-analyses including 398 trials reporting mortality and 182 trials reporting admission rates; 125 trials reported both outcomes. In 27.9% of comparisons, the point estimates of treatment effects for the 2 outcomes were in opposite directions; in 8.2% of trials, the 95% confidence intervals did not overlap. We found no significant correlation between effect sizes for admission and death (Pearson r = 0.07, p = 0.6). Our results were similar when we limited our analysis to trials reporting both outcomes.

INTERPRETATION

In this metaepidemiological study, admission and mortality outcomes did not correlate, and discordances occurred in about one-third of the treatment comparisons included in our analyses. Both outcomes convey useful information and should be reported separately, but extrapolating the benefits of admission to survival is unreliable and should be avoided.

Patient safety strategies targeted at diagnostic errors: a systematic review

Missed, delayed, or incorrect diagnosis can lead to inappropriate patient care, poor patient outcomes, and increased cost. This systematic review analyzed evaluations of interventions to prevent diagnostic errors. Searches used MEDLINE (1966 to October 2012), the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality's Patient Safety Network, bibliographies, and prior systematic reviews. Studies that evaluated any intervention to decrease diagnostic errors in any clinical setting and with any study design were eligible, provided that they addressed a patient-related outcome. Two independent reviewers extracted study data and rated study quality. There were 109 studies that addressed 1 or more intervention categories: personnel changes (n = 6), educational interventions (n = 11), technique (n = 23), structured process changes (n = 27), technology-based systems interventions (n = 32), and review methods (n = 38). Of 14 randomized trials, which were rated as having mostly low to moderate risk of bias, 11 reported interventions that reduced diagnostic errors. Evidence seemed strongest for technology-based systems (for example, text message alerting) and specific techniques (for example, testing equipment adaptations). Studies provided no information on harms, cost, or contextual application of interventions. Overall, the review showed a growing field of diagnostic error research and categorized and identified promising interventions that warrant evaluation in large studies across diverse settings.

Comparative effect sizes in randomised trials from less developed and more developed countries: meta-epidemiological assessment

OBJECTIVE

To compare treatment effects from randomised trials conducted in more developed versus less developed countries.

DESIGN

Meta-epidemiological study.

DATA SOURCES

Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (August 2012).

DATA EXTRACTION

Meta-analyses with mortality outcomes including data from at least one randomised trial conducted in a less developed country and one in a more developed country. Relative risk estimates of more versus less developed countries were compared by calculating the relative relative risks for each topic and the summary relative relative risks across all topics. Similar analyses were performed for the primary binary outcome of each topic.

RESULTS

139 meta-analyses with mortality outcomes were eligible. No nominally significant differences between more developed and less developed countries were found for 128 (92%) meta-analyses. However, differences were beyond chance in 11 (8%) cases, always showing more favourable treatment effects in trials from less developed countries. The summary relative relative risk was 1.12 (95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.18; P<0.001; I(2)=0%), suggesting significantly more favourable mortality effects in trials from less developed countries. Results were similar for meta-analyses with nominally significant treatment effects for mortality (1.15), meta-analyses with recent trials (1.14), and when excluding trials from less developed countries that subsequently became more developed (1.12). For the primary binary outcomes (127 meta-analyses), 20 topics had differences in treatment effects beyond chance (more favourable in less developed countries in 15/20 cases).

CONCLUSIONS

Trials from less developed countries in a few cases show significantly more favourable treatment effects than trials in more developed countries and, on average, treatment effects are more favourable in less developed countries. These discrepancies may reflect biases in reporting or study design as well as genuine differences in baseline risk or treatment implementation and should be considers when generalising evidence across different settings.

Most meta-analyses of drug interventions have narrow scopes and many focus on specific agents

OBJECTIVE

To assess the extent to which meta-analysis publications of drugs and biologics focus on specific named agents or even only a single agent, and identify characteristics associated with such focus.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We evaluated 499 articles with meta-analyses published in 2010 and estimated how many did not cover all the available comparisons of tested interventions for a given condition (not all-inclusive); focused on specific named agent(s), or focused strictly on comparisons of only one specific active agent vs. placebo/no treatment or different doses/schedules.

RESULTS

Of 499 eligible articles, 403 (80.8%) were not all-inclusive, 214 (42.9%) covered only specific named agent(s), and 74 (14.8%) examined only comparisons with one active agent vs. placebo/no treatment or different doses/schedules. Only 39 articles (7.8%) covered all possible indications for the examined agent(s). After adjusting for type of treatment/field, focus on specific named agent(s) was associated with publication in journal venues (odds ratio [OR]: 1.95; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.17-3.26) vs. Cochrane, industry sponsoring (OR: 3.94; 95% CI: 1.66-10.66), and individual patient data analyses (OR: 6.59; 95% CI: 2.24-19.39). Individual patient data analyses primarily (29/34) focused on specific named agent(s).

CONCLUSION

The scope of meta-analysis publications frequently is narrow and shaped to serve particular agents.

Empirical evaluation of age groups and age-subgroup analyses in pediatric randomized trials and pediatric meta-analyses

BACKGROUND

An important step toward improvement of the conduct of pediatric clinical research is the standardization of the ages of children to be included in pediatric trials and the optimal age-subgroups to be analyzed.

METHODS

We set out to evaluate empirically the age ranges of children, and age-subgroup analyses thereof, reported in recent pediatric randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and meta-analyses. First, we screened 24 RCTs published in Pediatrics during the first 6 months of 2011; second, we screened 188 pediatric RCTs published in 2007 in the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials; third, we screened 48 pediatric meta-analyses published in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews in 2011. We extracted information on age ranges and age-subgroups considered and age-subgroup differences reported.

RESULTS

The age range of children in RCTs published in Pediatrics varied from 0.1 to 17.5 years (median age: 5; interquartile range: 1.8-10.2) and only 25% of those presented age-subgroup analyses. Large variability was also detected for age ranges in 188 RCTs from the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and only 28 of those analyzed age-subgroups. Moreover, only 11 of 48 meta-analyses had age-subgroup analyses, and in 6 of those, only different studies were included. Furthermore, most of these observed differences were not beyond chance.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed large variability in the age ranges and age-subgroups of children included in recent pediatric trials and meta-analyses. Despite the limited available data, some age-subgroup differences were noted. The rationale for the selection of particular age-subgroups deserves further study.

Claims for improved survival from systemic corticosteroids in diverse conditions: an umbrella review

BACKGROUND

Systemic corticosteroids have been proposed for numerous indications and there are many claims that corticosteroids can reduce mortality in diverse conditions.

METHODS

We performed an umbrella, agenda-wide review of the evidence on systemic corticosteroids and mortality, focusing primarily on large trials (defined as those with > 100 deaths) and meta-analyses. Searches were performed in PubMed and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (last update February 2011). We also examined whether spurious subset analyses may be responsible for claims of survival benefits in indications where only small trials had been available.

RESULTS

Among 257 identified randomized trials with mortality data in their abstract, we found 14 large trials pertaining to 10 different indications. Although 10 of these 14 trials have reported statistically significant survival differences in subset analyses, none shows a nominally statistically significant (P < 0·05) decrease in death risk for any of the tested conditions when all deaths on all randomized patients are analysed. Meta-analyses for these conditions show statistically significant reductions in mortality only with antenatal corticosteroids for preterm labour (relative risk 0·77, 95% CI, 0·67-0·89) and in tuberculous meningitis (relative risk 0·78, 95% CI, 0·67-0·91). For conditions without any large trials, statistically significant reductions in mortality in meta-analyses were noted for Pneumocystis pneumonia (relative risk 0·54, 95% CI, 0·38-0·79) and alcoholic hepatitis (relative risk 0·63, 95% CI, 0·50-0·80). Many small trials that claim significant benefits, even those for classic indications such as typhoid fever and tetanus, have shown these benefits only in subset analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Corticosteroids have been documented to decrease mortality in some indications, in particular, antenatal use for preterm labour, tuberculous meningitis, Pneumocystis pneumonia, and alcoholic hepatitis. Many postulated benefits of corticosteroids on mortality may reflect 'vibration of treatment effects' leading to false-positive claims from spurious subset analyses and even for standard indications, such biases may have inflated the treatment effect estimates. More large trials are needed for serious, common conditions where use of corticosteroids is proposed.

An empirical evaluation of multifarious outcomes in pharmacogenetics: beta-2 adrenoceptor gene polymorphisms in asthma treatment

OBJECTIVE

Pharmacogenetics promises to individualize therapeutics. Concerns, however, exist about the lack of replication of discoveries. Selective use of different endpoints, times of assessment, types of interventions and genetic groups across studies may lead to spurious results. Here, we examined the variability of definitions of endpoints and analyses reported across studies addressing the association of the Arg16Gly and/or Gln27Glu polymorphisms of the beta2-adrenergic receptor gene with clinical response to beta2-agonist therapy in asthma.

METHODS

We systematically calculated the number and type of endpoints and analyses reported across studies and recorded the appraisal of their statistical significance.

RESULTS

Across 21 studies, the total number of probed and reported associations was 487 when the multiple endpoints and types of comparisons presented by multiple comparisons were considered (337 for Arg16Gly, 98 for Gln27Glu and 52 for their haplotypes): 465 (95%) were probed only once; only six associations were probed twice and two associations were probed five times, for the same endpoint, time of assessment, type of interventions and genetic group. Most studies (17/21) claimed at least one significant association. Overall, however, 243/487 (49.9%) probed and reported associations were not statistically significant, 120 (24.6%) were of unspecified statistical significance, 86 (17.7%) were statistically significant only for specific selected genetic contrasts and only 38 (7.8%) were genuinely statistically significant for the comparison between all available genetic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The multifarious outcomes in this literature are inconsistent across studies and susceptible to selective reporting. The lack of standardization hinders the evaluation of replication validity for reported discoveries.

Reporting and interpretation of SF-36 outcomes in randomised trials: systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To determine how often health surveys and quality of life evaluations reach different conclusions from those of primary efficacy outcomes and whether discordant results make a difference in the interpretation of trial findings.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, contact with authors for missing information, and author survey for unpublished SF-36 data.

STUDY SELECTION

Randomised trials with SF-36 outcomes (the most extensively validated and used health survey instrument for appraising quality of life) that were published in 2005 in 22 journals with a high impact factor.

DATA EXTRACTION

Analyses on the two composite and eight subdomain SF-36 scores that corresponded to the time and mode of analysis of the primary efficacy outcome.

RESULTS

Of 1057 screened trials, 52 were identified as randomised trials with SF-36 results (66 separate comparisons). Only eight trials reported all 10 SF-36 scores in the published articles. For 21 of the 66 comparisons, SF-36 results were discordant for statistical significance compared with the results for primary efficacy outcomes. Of 17 statistically significant SF-36 scores where primary outcomes were not also statistically significant in the same direction, the magnitude of effect was small in six, moderate in six, large in three, and not reported in two. Authors modified the interpretation of study findings based on SF-36 results in only two of the 21 discordant cases. Among 100 additional randomly selected trials not reporting any SF-36 information, at least five had collected SF-36 data but only one had analysed it.

CONCLUSIONS

SF-36 measurements sometimes produce different results from those of the primary efficacy outcomes but rarely modify the overall interpretation of randomised trials. Quality of life and health related survey information should be utilised more systematically in randomised trials.

Pharmacogenetics of the response to beta 2 agonist drugs: a systematic overview of the field

The response to beta2-agonist treatment shows large repeatability within individuals and may thus be determined by genetic influences. Here we present a systematic overview of the available genetic association and linkage data for beta2-agonist treatment response. Systematic searches identified 66 eligible articles, as of March 2007, pertaining either to B2AR gene polymorphisms and short-acting or long-acting beta2-agonists or to another 29 different genes. We systematize these study results according to gene, agent and type of outcomes addressed. The systematic review highlights major challenges in the field, including extreme multiplicity of analyses; lack of consensus for main phenotypes of interest; typically small sample sizes; and poor replicability of the proposed genetic variants. Future studies will benefit from standardization of analyses and outcomes, hypothesis-free genome-wide association testing platforms, potentially additional fine mapping around new discovered variants, and large-scale collaborative studies with prospective plans for replication among several teams, with transparent public recording of all data.

International ranking systems for universities and institutions: a critical appraisal

BACKGROUND

Ranking of universities and institutions has attracted wide attention recently. Several systems have been proposed that attempt to rank academic institutions worldwide.

METHODS

We review the two most publicly visible ranking systems, the Shanghai Jiao Tong University 'Academic Ranking of World Universities' and the Times Higher Education Supplement 'World University Rankings' and also briefly review other ranking systems that use different criteria. We assess the construct validity for educational and research excellence and the measurement validity of each of the proposed ranking criteria, and try to identify generic challenges in international ranking of universities and institutions.

RESULTS

None of the reviewed criteria for international ranking seems to have very good construct validity for both educational and research excellence, and most don't have very good construct validity even for just one of these two aspects of excellence. Measurement error for many items is also considerable or is not possible to determine due to lack of publication of the relevant data and methodology details. The concordance between the 2006 rankings by Shanghai and Times is modest at best, with only 133 universities shared in their top 200 lists. The examination of the existing international ranking systems suggests that generic challenges include adjustment for institutional size, definition of institutions, implications of average measurements of excellence versus measurements of extremes, adjustments for scientific field, time frame of measurement and allocation of credit for excellence.

CONCLUSION

Naïve lists of international institutional rankings that do not address these fundamental challenges with transparent methods are misleading and should be abandoned. We make some suggestions on how focused and standardized evaluations of excellence could be improved and placed in proper context.

Genetic predisposition to asthma and atopy

A large number of studies have tried to identify heritable components in the susceptibility to asthma and atopy phenotypes. This review examines the evidence of multigenetic inheritance for these conditions. We identified in the literature at least 372 gene-disease association studies for asthma and 124 for atopy published in the last 6 years. Gene-environment analyses were performed in 41 and 14 articles, respectively, in the same time period. Many postulated associations have been probed with limited sample sizes and will require more extensive replication and large-scale evidence. Meta-analyses have been performed for polymorphisms in 5 genes and provide modest evidence for genetic association of asthma with ADAM33 and TNFA gene polymorphisms. Meta-analyses of linkage studies show that it is unlikely to detect strong linkage peaks for asthma susceptibility. However, linkage was claimed between loci on chromosomes 2, 4, 6, 9, 10, 11 and 15 and total serum IgE levels. Careful definitions and standardization of phenotypes across teams of investigators are important to endorse. New large-scale testing platforms may offer new opportunities for discovering susceptibility gene variants, but they need to be coupled with careful study design, international collaboration, and possibly also dissection of gene-environment interactions.

Anticonvulsants for alcohol withdrawal

BACKGROUND

Alcohol withdrawal syndrome is a cluster of symptoms that occurs in alcohol-dependent people after cessation or reduction in alcohol use. This systematic review focuses on the evidence of anticonvulsants' use in the treatment of alcohol withdrawal symptoms.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the effectiveness and safety of anticonvulsants in the treatment of alcohol withdrawal.

SEARCH STRATEGY

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (The Cochrane Library Issue 3, 2004); MEDLINE (1966 to October 2004); EMBASE (1988 to October 2004) and EU-PSI PSI-Tri database with no language and publication restrictions and references of articles.

SELECTION CRITERIA

All randomized controlled trials examining the effectiveness, safety and overall risk-benefit of an anticonvulsant in comparison with a placebo or other pharmacological treatment or another anticonvulsant were considered.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

The authors independently assessed trial quality extracted data.

MAIN RESULTS

Forty-eight studies, involving 3610 people were included. Despite the considerable number of randomized controlled trials, there was a variety of outcomes and of different rating scales that led to a limited quantitative synthesis of data. For the anticonvulsant versus placebo comparison, therapeutic success tended to be more common among the anticonvulsant-treated patients (relative risk (RR) 1.32; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.92 to 1.91), and anticonvulsant tended to show a protective benefit against seizures (RR 0.57; 95% CI 0.27 to 1.19), but no effect reached formal statistical significance. For the anticonvulsant versus other drug comparison, CIWA-Ar score showed non-significant differences for the anticonvulsants compared to the other drugs at the end of treatment (weighted mean difference (WMD) -0.73; 95% CI -1.76 to 0.31). For the subgroup analysis of carbamazepine versus benzodiazepine, a statistically significant protective effect was found for the anticonvulsant (WMD -1.04; 95% CI -1.89 to -0.20), p = 0.02), but this was based on only 260 randomized participants. There was a non-significant decreased incidence of seizures (RR 0.50; 95% CI 0.18 to 1.34) favouring the patients that were treated with anticonvulsants than other drugs, and side-effects tended to be less common in the anticonvulsant-group (RR 0.56; 95% CI 0.31 to 1.02).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

It is not possible to draw definite conclusions about the effectiveness and safety of anticonvulsants in alcohol withdrawal, because of the heterogeneity of the trials both in interventions and the assessment of outcomes. The extremely small mortality rate in all these studies is reassuring, but data on other safety outcomes are sparse and fragmented.