Lessons for cross-species viral transmission surveillance from highly pathogenic avian influenza Korean cat shelter outbreaks

In this Comment, the authors describe recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in cat shelters in Seoul, South Korea. They discuss potential routes of transmission and describe implications for surveillance of spillover infections in animals in non-agricultural settings.

H9N2 avian influenza virus dispersal along Bangladeshi poultry trading networks

Avian influenza virus subtype H9N2 is endemic in Bangladesh's poultry population. The subtype affects poultry production and poses a potential zoonotic risk. Insufficient understanding of how the poultry trading network shapes the dissemination of avian influenza viruses has hindered the design of targeted interventions to reduce their spread. Here, we use phylodynamic analyses of haemagglutinin sequences to investigate the spatial spread and dispersal patterns of H9N2 viruses in Bangladesh's poultry population, focusing on its two largest cities (Dhaka and Chattogram) and their poultry production and distribution networks. Our analyses suggest that H9N2 subtype avian influenza virus lineage movement occurs relatively less frequently between Bangladesh's two largest cities than within each city. H9N2 viruses detected in single markets are often more closely related to viruses from other markets in the same city than to each other, consistent with close epidemiological connectivity between markets. Our analyses also suggest that H9N2 viruses may spread more frequently between chickens of the three most commonly sold types (sunali-a cross-bred of Fayoumi hen and Rhode Island Red cock, deshi-local indigenous, and exotic broiler) in Dhaka than in Chattogram. Overall, this study improves our understanding of how Bangladesh's poultry trading system impacts avian influenza virus spread and should contribute to the design of tailored surveillance that accommodates local heterogeneity in virus dispersal patterns.

The attitude-behaviour gap in biosecurity: Applying social theories to understand the relationships between commercial chicken farmers' attitudes and behaviours

Introduction

Traditionally, it is believed that people's behaviours align with their attitudes; however, during COVID-19 pandemic, an attitude-behaviour gap in relation to preventive measures has been observed in recent studies. As such, the mixed-methods research was used to examine the relationships between farmers' biosecurity attitudes and behaviours in Taiwan's chicken industry based on the cognitive consistency theory.

Methods

Content analysis of face-to-face interviews with 15 commercial chicken farmers identified their biosecurity responses to infectious disease threats.

Results

The results indicated the mismatch of farmers' attitudes and behaviours towards specific biosecurity measures, in that they act differently than they think. The findings of the qualitative research allowed the research team to conduct the subsequent quantitative, confirmatory assessment to investigate the mismatch of farmers' attitudes and behaviours in 303 commercial broiler farmers. Survey data were analyzed to discover the relationships between farmers' attitudes and behaviours in relation to 29 biosecurity measures. The results show a mixed picture. The percentage of the farmers who had the attitude-behaviour gap towards 29 biosecurity measures ranged from 13.9 to 58.7%. Additionally, at the 5% significant level, there is an association between farmers' attitudes and behaviours for 12 biosecurity measures. In contrast, a significant association does not exist for the other 17 biosecurity measures. Specifically, out of the 17 biosecurity measures, the disconnection of farmers' attitudes and behaviours was observed in three specific biosecurity measures such as using a carcass storage area.

Discussion

Based on a fairly large sample of farmers in Taiwan, this study confirms the existence of an attitude-behaviour gap in context and applies social theories to provide an in-depth understanding of how infectious diseases are managed in the animal health context. As the results demonstrate the necessity of tailoring biosecurity strategies to address the gap, it is time to reconsider the current approach by understanding farmers' real attitudes and behaviours in relation to biosecurity for the success of animal disease prevention and control at the farm level.

The challenges of pig farming in Hong Kong: a study of farmers' perceptions and attitudes towards a pig health and production management service

BACKGROUND

Pig farming in Hong Kong differs markedly from other places in the world, with a highly urbanised population, the majority of pigs being imported for slaughter, and limited on-farm veterinary support. Little is known about the barriers and attitudes of pig farmers in Hong Kong and their expectations of a new pig health and production management service provided by veterinarians. We collected qualitative and quantitative data to 1) describe pig farms, 2) identify barriers to pig farming in Hong Kong and 3) describe the perceptions of the new service. Thematic analysis was conducted to identify barriers and attitudes.

RESULTS

Eight and nine out of 38 pig farmers agreed to participate in the qualitative and quantitative components, respectively. All farms were farrow-to-finish farms with a median of 2800 (range 950 to 7000) pigs per farm. Three themes were identified during the interview analysis and could be ranked based on their importance to the farmers: the regulatory environment (Theme 1), veterinary support structures (Theme 2), and the sustainability of the pig industry (Theme 3). Farmers expressed dissatisfaction with the regulation of the industry and veterinary services on offer within Hong Kong. However, farmers did note that the provision of a new pig health and production management service was as a positive development. The public perception of pig farming, market forces, and competition from mainland pig farmers have resulted in sustainability challenges for the industry.

CONCLUSIONS

Farmers identified very specific local systems and challenges unique to pig farming in Hong Kong. The lack of veterinary support was one of these challenges and although a certain level of scepticism towards the new pig health and production service was expressed, farmers indicated their interest and listed areas where they would benefit from improved veterinary support. Prior experiences of veterinary services clouded farmers perceptions of the usefulness of a new service. To be successful in this environment, clear communication about the goals, role and limitations of the new on farm service is crucial, as is the alignment with the needs of farmers. Despite the small sample size, the qualitative methodology used allows us to assume that these themes give a general idea of what Hong Kong farmers' concerns and attitudes are.

Sequestration and Destruction of Rinderpest Virus-Containing Material 10 Years after Eradication

In 2021, the world marked 10 years free from rinderpest. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and World Organisation for Animal Health have since made great strides in consolidating, sequencing, and destroying stocks of rinderpest virus-containing material, currently kept by only 14 known institutions. This progress must continue.

Exploring the hurdles that remain for control of African swine fever in smallholder farming settings

To honour the 100 years anniversary of the first publication about African swine fever (ASF) a webinar with a particular focus on disease control in the smallholder sector was organized. This article is based on the webinar, summarizing the early history of ASF research, reflecting on the current global disease situation and bringing forward some suggestions that could contribute towards achieving control of ASF. The first description of ASF by R. Eustace Montgomery in 1921 laid the foundations for what we know about the disease today. Subsequent research confirmed its association with warthogs and soft ticks of the Ornithodoros moubata complex. During the latter half of the 21st century, exponential growth of pig production in Africa has led to a change in the ASF-epidemiology pattern. It is now dominated by a cycle involving domestic pigs and pork with virus spread driven by people. In 2007, a global ASF epidemic started, reaching large parts of Europe, Asia and the Americas. In Europe, this epidemic has primarily affected wild boar. In Asia, wild boar, smallholders and industrialized pig farms have been affected with impact on local, national and international pig value chains. Globally and historically, domestic pigs in smallholder settings are most frequently affected and the main driver of ASF virus transmission. Awaiting a safe and efficacious vaccine, we need to continue focus on other measures, such as biosecurity, for controlling the disease. However, smallholders face specific challenges linked to poverty and other structural factors in implementing biosecurity measures that can prevent spread. Improving biosecurity in the smallholder sector thus remains an important tool for preventing and controlling ASF. In this regard, interdisciplinary research can help to find new ways to promote safe practices, facilitate understanding and embrace smallholders' perspectives, engage stakeholders and adjust prevention and control policies to improve implementation.

Determinants of farmers' biosecurity mindset: A social-ecological model using systems thinking

Commercial poultry is often farmed in high-density facilities, therefore, predisposing exposure to threats of infectious diseases. Studies suggest that it is likely that farmers have little motivation to practise on-farm biosecurity. In Taiwan, where high-density intensive poultry production is commonplace, unfortunately, several avian influenza outbreaks have occurred over the past decade despite the establishment of biosecurity procedures. To develop effective interventions, it is essential to understand the determinants of farmers' biosecurity mindset through systems thinking. In this qualitative study, we directly explored the opinions of Taiwan's chicken farmers, and a grounded theory analysis was performed. The study revealed that farmers allocate resources based on their justification for the optimisation of resource utilisation, and biosecurity is the most concerning challenge. Farmers focus on the economic aspects of their production systems, particularly when the implementation of biosecurity increases production costs, and there are multifaceted, complex barriers to implementing on-farm biosecurity. Although the participant farmers accepted to take major responsibility for disease management, paradoxically, some farmers blamed the practicality of government regulations and government employees' attitudes. Additionally, the farmers rejected the government's intentions to ask farmers to take major responsibility for the outbreaks of avian influenza while some of them intended to ignore the perceived risks. Government interventions that were considered not directly related to biosecurity also negatively influenced farmers' willingness to improve biosecurity. Using the interview results together with information in the scientific literature, we constructed a modified six-level social-ecological model to explain the complex influences of macro socio-economic conditions on farmers' biosecurity mindset. The novelty of this research lies in its wider relevance to Taiwan's chicken production industry in that it provides first-hand evidence-based knowledge to demonstrate a wide number of determinants of farmers' biosecurity mindset. This social-ecological model highlights the importance of systems thinking for the development of behavioural interventions and allows adaptation to the local context. The findings of this study have relevance to Taiwan's chicken production industry and potentially to similar systems in other countries in the wider region and should result in more effective animal health management at the farm level.

Quality Assessment of Day-Old Chickens on the Broiler Farms of Hong Kong

Simple Summary

Assessing the quality and determining maternal antibodies against regional pathogens in day-old chickens is important to optimize the production performance and management of flocks. So far, such information in Hong Kong is lacking. The present study was conducted to assess abnormalities in appearance, navel, crop filling, dehydration, body weight, and length uniformity in day-old chicks. In addition, the maternally derived antibody levels against relevant infectious diseases were measured. This study was the first in Hong Kong to provide a baseline for the quality of day-old chicks, and results in evidence-based management advice tailored to the farms. We advise the establishment of a well-managed broiler breeder farm and hatchery, in order to improve the health and productivity of the local broiler chicken industry.

Abstract

The present study aimed to investigate the quality of newly hatched broiler chicks delivered to Hong Kong (imported or local), and to develop tailored recommendations to improve their management. During 2019–2021, 70 batches (34 imported from mainland China and 36 local) of one/three day old chicks on 11 broiler farms were studied. From each batch, 23 or 24 chicks (1647 in total) were assessed for abnormalities in appearance, navel, crop filling, dehydration, body weight, and length uniformity. Chicks were sacrificed, and yolk sac residues in three day old chicks were measured. Maternally derived antibody levels against Newcastle disease virus (NDV), infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV), and avian reovirus (ARV) were measured in all chicks using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The proportion of abnormal navel in most batches is high (median: 59%), ranging between 0 and 100%. The average length of chicks within batches ranges between 16.3 and 20.7 cm, and their average weights are 31–38.5 g upon delivery to the farms. On average, imported batches have a higher body weight and length than their local counterparts. The average yolk-free weight varies between 45 and 55 g, which is significantly lower in local batches (33–43 g). The mean antibody titers against NDV and ARV are higher in imported batches than in the local ones. In contrast, the mean antibody titer against IBDV is significantly lower in the imported batches. Concerning the overall lower quality of local chicks compared to the imported batches, establishing a well-managed broiler breeder farm and a hatchery in Hong Kong is highly recommended to enhance the health and productivity of the local broiler chicken industry.

First Study to Describe the Prevalence of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus and Porcine Circovirus Type 2 among the Farmed Pig Population in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region

Infection of pig farms with porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) and porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) causes substantial economic losses globally. However, little epidemiological data of PRRSV and PCV2 in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) were available. This pilot study aimed to provide baseline information of the prevalences of PPRSV and PCV2 in the HKSAR. A complex survey was conducted from 3 February 2020 to 11 March 2021 on 29 of the 40 pig farms in the HKSAR, with five pigs each from seven age groups (representing key production stages) tested using a real-time PCR. Evidence of presence of PRRSV European strain (PRRSV-1), PRRSV North American strain (PRRSV-2) and PCV2 was confirmed on 48%, 86% and 79% of farms, with overall prevalences of 7.6% (95% CI: 4.8–10.3%), 12.2% (95% CI: 9.6–14.7%) and 20.3% (95% CI: 14.3–26.2%) in the HKSAR pig population based on pooling results from all pigs across all farms. PRRSV-1 and PRRSV-2 were more prevalent in younger pigs, with the highest prevalences of 32.1% (95% CI: 20.8–45.0%) and 51.5% (95% CI: 38.9–64.0%) for 8-week-old pigs. In contrast, the distribution of PCV2 prevalence across age groups appeared to be more symmetrical, with higher prevalences reported in pigs from 12 weeks old to 24 weeks old but lower prevalences in younger pigs and sows. The results of this study demonstrate that PRRSV-1, PRRSV-2 and PCV2 are widely spread across pig farms in the HKSAR, which indicates that the current farm management and control protocols should be improved. We recommend the implementation of on-farm intervention strategies combined with ongoing surveillance to reduce these viruses, and their consequences, in the HKSAR pig population.

Trait-Based Vaccination of Individual Meerkats (Suricata suricatta) against Tuberculosis Provides Evidence to Support Targeted Disease Control

Simple Summary

There is evidence to show that, within a population, some individuals are more likely to spread infections than others. When trying to protect a population against infection, most strategies aim to vaccinate as many individuals as possible. However, vaccinating wildlife is difficult because individuals are difficult to find and capture. For wildlife therefore, the ideal strategy would involve targeting vaccinations at those individuals most likely to transmit infection, thus gaining maximum benefit from capturing a small number of individuals. Whilst this seems a very attractive solution, very few studies have attempted to provide evidence to support this theory. This study focuses on a population of meerkats with a history of tuberculosis. Previous work has suggested that socially dominant individuals are most likely to transmit infection, with subordinates most likely to become infected. Therefore, whilst some social groups were left untreated as a baseline, in others, either dominants or subordinates were vaccinated. All groups were monitored for two years, after which time the infection data was analysed. Groups in which vaccinations had been used showed reduced infection rates suggesting that the targeted approach had reduced transmission. A targeted approach may therefore offer an efficient option for vaccinating wildlife in the future.

Abstract

Individuals vary in their potential to acquire and transmit infections, but this fact is currently underexploited in disease control strategies. We trialled a trait-based vaccination strategy to reduce tuberculosis in free-living meerkats by targeting high-contact meerkats (socially dominant individuals) in one study arm, and high-susceptibility individuals (young subordinates) in a second arm. We monitored infection within vaccinated groups over two years comparing the results with untreated control groups. Being a member of a high-contact group had a protective effect on individuals’ survival times (Hazard Ratio = 0.5, 95% Confidence Interval, CI: 0.29–0.88, p = 0.02) compared to control groups. Over the study, odds of testing positive for tuberculosis increased more than five-fold in control groups (Odds Ratio = 5.40, 95% CI = 0.94–30.98, p = 0.058); however, no increases were observed in either of the treatment arms. Targeted disease control approaches, such as the one described in this study, allow for reduced numbers of interventions. Here, trait-based vaccination was associated with reduced infection rates and thus has the potential to offer more efficient alternatives to traditional mass-vaccination policies. Such improvements in efficiency warrant further study and could make infectious disease control more practically achievable in both animal (particularly wildlife) and human populations.

Combining Analytical Approaches and Multiple Sources of Information to Improve Interpretation of Diagnostic Test Results for Tuberculosis in Wild Meerkats

Diagnostic tests are used to classify individual animals' infection statuses. However, validating test performance in wild animals without gold standard tests is extremely challenging, and the issue is further complicated in chronic conditions where measured immune parameters vary over time. Here, we demonstrate the value of combining evidence from different diagnostic approaches to aid interpretation in the absence of gold standards, large sample sizes, and controlled environments. Over a two-year period, we sampled 268 free-living meerkats (Suricata suricatta) longitudinally for Mycobacterium suricattae (a causative agent of tuberculosis), using three ante-mortem diagnostic tests based on mycobacterial culture, and antigen-specific humoral and cell-mediated immune responses, interpreting results both independently and in combination. Post-mortem cultures confirmed M. suricattae infection in 22 animals, which had prior ante-mortem information, 59% (13/22) of which were test-positive on a parallel test interpretation (PTI) of the three ante-mortem diagnostic assays (95% confidence interval: 37-79%). A similar ability to detect infection, 65.7% (95% credible interval: 42.7-84.7%), was estimated using a Bayesian approach to examine PTI. Strong evidence was found for a near doubling of the hazard of death (Hazard Ratio 1.75, CI: 1.14-2.67, p = 0.01), associated with a positive PTI result, thus demonstrating that these test results are related to disease outcomes. For individual tests, small sample sizes led to wide confidence intervals, but replication of conclusions, using different methods, increased our confidence in these results. This study demonstrates that combining multiple methodologies to evaluate diagnostic tests in free-ranging wildlife populations can be a useful approach for exploiting such valuable datasets.

Absence of serological or molecular evidence of Leptospira infection in farmed swine in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region

Leptospirosis is an important zoonotic disease with several maintenance host species including swine. A cross sectional survey was undertaken between January to October 2020 to investigate the prevalence of leptospirosis in farmed swine in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) of China. Serum samples were collected from swine on seven farms (15 swine per farm; ten multiparous sows and five twelve-week-old weaners), while kidney samples were collected from 64 swine submitted for routine post-mortem (26 farms; average 2.4 swine per farm, range 1-6). Microscopic agglutination tests (MAT) to a panel of 24 Leptospira antigens did not reveal any evidence of seroconversion at a titre of 1:100. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing of the kidney samples for Leptospira DNA did not detect any evidence of infection. Bayesian methods were used to compute the probability that the leptospirosis prevalence in farmed swine in the HKSAR was <3%, given none of the 105 swine sampled were positive on the MAT. The results of this study demonstrate no serological or molecular evidence of leptospirosis in farmed swine in the HKSAR. Subsequent statistical analysis supports the conclusion that the prevalence of leptospirosis in farmed swine in the HKSAR is negligible at present.

Epidemic disease risks and implications for Veterinary Services

Growth in the livestock sector is associated with heightened risk for epidemic diseases. The increasing spillover of new diseases from wildlife is being driven by wide-scale anthropogenic changes allowing for more frequent and closer wildlife-human and wildlife-livestock contacts. An increasing number of epidemics in livestock are associated with rapid transition of livestock systems from extensive to intensive, and local to global movement of livestock and their products through value chain networks with weak biosecurity. Major livestock epidemics in the past two decades have had substantial economic impacts, and the COVID-19 pandemic highlights the devastating socio-economic consequences that spillovers can have when not identified and controlled early in the process of emergence. This highlights the importance of Veterinary Services to integrated, whole-of-society efforts to control infectious diseases in animals. Emphasis within Veterinary Services must be placed on prevention and preparedness. The authors suggest four areas for continued improvement in Veterinary Services to meet this challenge. These are a) continued development of staff capacity for risk assessment and value chain analysis, together with improved policies and communication, b) appropriate adaptation of approaches to prevention and control in resource-poor settings, c) improved multi-sectoral and transboundary cooperation, which enables the sharing of resources and expertise, and d) systematic approaches that enable Veterinary Services to influence decisionmaking for trade, markets, business, public health, and livelihood development at the national and regional levels.

Avian Influenza Risk Environment: Live Bird Commodity Chains in Chattogram, Bangladesh

In this paper, we identify behaviours in live bird commodity chains in Chattogram, Bangladesh, which may influence the risk of pathogen emergence and transmission: the nature of poultry trade, value appropriation and selling sick or infected birds. Examining the reasons why actors engage in these behaviours, we emphasise the politics of constraints within a context of real-world decisions, governed by existential and pragmatic agency. Focusing on contact zones and entanglement, analysing patron-client relationships and precarious circumstances, we argue that agency and structure specific to the Bangladeshi context produce a risk environment. Structural constraints may reinforce risky occupational practises and limit individual agency. Structural constraints need to be addressed in order to tackle animal and zoonotic disease risk along live animal commodity chains.

Transmission Dynamics of African Swine Fever Virus, South Korea, 2019

African swine fever (ASF) is a substantial concern for global food production and security. However, lack of epidemiologic data in affected areas has limited the knowledge of the main drivers of ASF virus (ASFV) transmission. To assess the role of vehicle movements and wild boar populations in spreading ASFV to pig farms in South Korea, we combined data generated by ASF surveillance on pig farms and of wild boars with nationwide global positioning system–based tracking data for vehicles involved in farming activities. Vehicle movements from infected premises were associated with a higher probability of ASFV incursion into a farm than was geographic proximity to ASFV-infected wild boar populations. Although ASFV can spill over from infected wild boars into domestic pigs, vehicles played a substantial role in spreading infection between farms, despite rapid on-farm detection and culling. This finding highlights the need for interventions targeting farm-to-farm and wildlife-to-farm interfaces.

Undetected Circulation of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar, Asia

African swine fever is a growing threat to the livestock industry. We examined data indicating that in most countries in Asia, most notified events were related to farm outbreaks; meanwhile, only a few wild boar cases were reported. We hypothesize the virus circulates unnoticed in wild boar populations in Asia.

A tool for rapid assessment of wildlife markets in the Asia-Pacific Region for risk of future zoonotic disease outbreaks

Decades of warnings that the trade and consumption of wildlife could result in serious zoonotic pandemics have gone largely unheeded. Now the world is ravaged by COVID-19, with tremendous loss of life, economic and societal disruption, and dire predictions of more destructive and frequent pandemics. There are now calls to tightly regulate and even enact complete wildlife trade bans, while others call for more nuanced approaches since many rural communities rely on wildlife for sustenance. Given pressures from political and societal drivers and resource limitations to enforcing bans, increased regulation is a more likely outcome rather than broad bans. But imposition of tight regulations will require monitoring and assessing trade situations for zoonotic risks. We present a tool for relevant stakeholders, including government authorities in the public health and wildlife sectors, to assess wildlife trade situations for risks of potentially serious zoonoses in order to inform policies to tightly regulate and control the trade, much of which is illegal in most countries. The tool is based on available knowledge of different wildlife taxa traded in the Asia-Pacific Region and known to carry highly virulent and transmissible viruses combined with relative risks associated with different broad categories of market types and trade chains.

Demand-driven spreading patterns of African swine fever in China

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious hemorrhagic viral disease of domestic and wild pigs. ASF has led to major economic losses and adverse impacts on livelihoods of stakeholders involved in the pork food system in many European and Asian countries. While the epidemiology of ASF virus (ASFV) is fairly well understood, there is neither any effective treatment nor vaccine. In this paper, we propose a novel method to model the spread of ASFV in China by integrating the data of pork import/export, transportation networks, and pork distribution centers. We first empirically analyze the overall spatiotemporal patterns of ASFV spread and conduct extensive experiments to evaluate the efficacy of a number of geographic distance measures. These empirical analyses of ASFV spread within China indicate that the first occurrence of ASFV has not been purely dependent on the geographical distance from existing infected regions. Instead, the pork supply-demand patterns have played an important role. Predictions based on a new distance measure achieve better performance in predicting ASFV spread among Chinese provinces and thus have the potential to enable the design of more effective control interventions.

The role of livestock movements in the spread of Rift Valley fever virus in animals and humans in Mayotte, 2018-19

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne viral disease of major animal and public health importance. In 2018–19, it caused an epidemic in both livestock and human populations of the island of Mayotte. Using Bayesian modelling approaches, we assessed the spatio-temporal pattern of RVF virus (RVFV) infection in livestock and human populations across the island, and factors shaping it. First, we assessed if (i) livestock movements, (ii) spatial proximity from communes with infected animals, and (iii) livestock density were associated with the temporal sequence of RVFV introduction into Mayotte communes’ livestock populations. Second, we assessed whether the rate of human infection was associated with (a) spatial proximity from and (b) livestock density of communes with infected animals. Our analyses showed that the temporal sequence of RVFV introduction into communes’ livestock populations was associated with livestock movements and spatial proximity from communes with infected animals, with livestock movements being associated with the best model fit. Moreover, the pattern of human cases was associated with their spatial proximity from communes with infected animals, with the risk of human infection sharply increasing if livestock in the same or close communes were infected. This study highlights the importance of understanding livestock movement networks in informing the design of risk-based RVF surveillance programs.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne zoonotic disease, endemic in many sub-Saharan Africa regions with substantial outbreaks. RVF virus (RVFV) is transmitted to animals primarily by the bite of infected mosquitos, whereas direct or indirect contact with infected animals forms the primary route of RVFV transmission to humans. In 2018–19, Mayotte, an archipelago in the Indian Ocean between Madagascar and the coast of Eastern Africa, experienced an RVF epidemic in both livestock and humans. In this study, we investigated factors shaping the spatio-temporal pattern of RVFV infection in livestock and human populations across Mayotte. The diffusion of RVFV through Mayotte’s livestock population was associated with livestock movements and, potentially to a lesser extent, spatial proximity from communes with infected animals. Moreover, the pressure of infection on humans was the highest if nearby livestock were infected. This study highlights the value of accounting for the structure of livestock movement networks in the surveillance of zoonotic diseases at the human-animal interface, and the need for One Health approaches.

African Swine Fever Epidemiology and Control

African swine fever is a devastating disease that can result in death in almost all infected pigs. The continuing spread of African swine fever from Africa to Europe and recently to the high-pig production countries of China and others in Southeast Asia threatens global pork production and food security. The African swine fever virus is an unusual complex DNA virus and is not related to other viruses. This has presented challenges for vaccine development, and currently none is available. The virus is extremely well adapted to replicate in its hosts in the sylvatic cycle in East and South Africa. Its spread to other regions, with different wildlife hosts, climatic conditions, and pig production systems, has revealed unexpected epidemiological scenarios and different challenges for control. Here we review the epidemiology of African swine fever in these different scenarios and methods used for control. We also discuss progress toward vaccine development and research priorities to better understand this complex disease and improve control.

Non-ambulatory dogs with cervical intervertebral disc herniation: single versus multiple ventral slot decompression

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the proportion of non-ambulatory dogs with cervical intervertebral disc herniation (IVDH) in a private clinic and to compare signalment and outcome between those that underwent single or multiple ventral slot decompression (VSD).

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

METHODS

After screening 43,378 medical records (January 2010-September 2016), those of 185 dogs with non-ambulatory tetraparesis or tetraplegia along with cervical IVDH that had undergone single (123) or multiple (62) VSD were included in this study. Data on signalment, preoperative neurological status, location of affected intervertebral disc(s), time to ambulation and short-term outcome were compared between single and multiple VSD groups.

RESULTS

The proportion of non-ambulatory dogs with IVDH was 35.3%. The prevalence of non-ambulation was higher in male dogs (0.56%) than in female dogs (0.26%; P < 0.001) and in neutered dogs than in unneutered dogs (0.51% and 0.27%, respectively, P < 0.001). After surgery, 96.2% of the dogs reached ambulatory status. Dogs with multiple IVDH were older than those with single IVDH. Sex, neutering status or size did not affect the outcome or ambulation status postsurgery. The Pekingese was the most commonly affected breed in both groups. There was no difference in the time to reach ambulation and the presence of neurological deficits after surgery between dogs that underwent single and multiple VSD.

CONCLUSIONS

In this cohort, dogs undergoing multiple VSD had a good postoperative outcome, and their short-term functional recovery was equal to that of dogs undergoing single ventral slot compression.

Antibiotic resistance gene sharing networks and the effect of dietary nutritional content on the canine and feline gut resistome

BACKGROUND

As one of the most densely populated microbial communities on Earth, the gut microbiota serves as an important reservoir of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs), referred to as the gut resistome. Here, we investigated the association of dietary nutritional content with gut ARG diversity and composition, using publicly available shotgun metagenomic sequence data generated from canine and feline fecal samples. Also, based on network theory, we explored ARG-sharing patterns between gut bacterial genera by identifying the linkage structure between metagenomic assemblies and their functional genes obtained from the same data.

RESULTS

In both canine and feline gut microbiota, an increase in protein and a reduction in carbohydrate in the diet were associated with increased ARG diversity. ARG diversity of the canine gut microbiota also increased, but less strongly, after a reduction in protein and an increase in carbohydrate in the diet. The association between ARG and taxonomic composition suggests that diet-induced changes in the gut microbiota may be responsible for changes in ARG composition, supporting the links between protein metabolism and antibiotic resistance in gut microbes. In the analysis of the ARG-sharing patterns, 22 ARGs were shared among 46 genera in the canine gut microbiota, and 11 ARGs among 28 genera in the feline gut microbiota. Of these ARGs, the tetracycline resistance gene tet(W) was shared among the largest number of genera, predominantly among Firmicutes genera. Bifidobacterium, a genus extensively used in the fermentation of dairy products and as probiotics, shared tet(W) with a wide variety of other genera. Finally, genera from the same phylum were more likely to share ARGs than with those from different phyla.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings show that dietary nutritional content, especially protein content, is associated with the gut resistome and suggest future research to explore the impact of dietary intervention on the development of antibiotic resistance in clinically-relevant gut microbes. Our network analysis also reveals that the genetic composition of bacteria acts as an important barrier to the horizontal transfer of ARGs. By capturing the underlying gene-sharing relationships between different bacterial taxa from metagenomes, our network approach improves our understanding of horizontal gene transfer dynamics.

Prevalence of Avian Influenza A(H5) and A(H9) Viruses in Live Bird Markets, Bangladesh

We conducted a cross-sectional study in live bird markets (LBMs) in Dhaka and Chittagong, Bangladesh, to estimate the prevalence of avian influenza A(H5) and A(H9) viruses in different types of poultry and environmental areas by using Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression models. We detected these viruses in nearly all LBMs. Prevalence of A(H5) virus was higher in waterfowl than in chickens, whereas prevalence of A(H9) virus was higher in chickens than in waterfowl and, among chicken types, in industrial broilers than in cross-breeds and indigenous breeds. LBMs with >1 wholesaler were more frequently contaminated by A(H5) virus than retail-only LBMs. Prevalence of A(H9) virus in poultry and level of environmental contamination were also higher in LBMs with >1 wholesaler. We found a high level of circulation of both avian influenza viruses in surveyed LBMs. Prevalence was influenced by type of poultry, environmental site, and trading.

Exploring the Fate of Cattle Herds With Inconclusive Reactors to the Tuberculin Skin Test

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) is an important animal health issue in many parts of the world. In England and Wales, the primary test to detect infected animals is the single intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin test, which compares immunological responses to bovine and avian tuberculins. Inconclusive test reactors (IRs) are animals that demonstrate a positive reaction to the bovine tuberculin only marginally greater than the avian reaction, so are not classified as reactors and immediately removed. In the absence of reactors in the herd, IRs are isolated, placed under movement restrictions and re-tested after 60 days. Other animals in these herds at the time of the IR result are not usually subject to movement restrictions. This could affect efforts to control TB if undetected infected cattle move out of those herds before the next TB test. To improve our understanding of the importance of IRs, this study aimed to assess whether median survival time and the hazard of a subsequent TB incident differs in herds with only IRs detected compared with negative-testing herds. Survival analysis and extended Cox regression were used, with herds entering the study on the date of the first whole herd test in 2012. An additional analysis was performed using an alternative entry date to try to remove the impact of IR retesting and is presented in the Supplementary Material. Survival analysis showed that the median survival time among IR only herds was half that observed for clear herds (2.1 years and 4.2 years respectively; p < 0.001). Extended Cox regression analysis showed that IR-only herds had 2.7 times the hazard of a subsequent incident compared with negative-testing herds in year one (hazard ratio: 2.69; 95% CI: 2.54, 2.84; p < 0.001), and that this difference in the hazard reduced by 63% per year. After 2.7 years the difference had disappeared. The supplementary analysis supported these findings showing that IR only herds still had a greater hazard of a subsequent incident after the IR re-test, but that the effect was reduced. This emphasizes the importance of careful decision making around the management of IR animals and indicates that re-testing alone may not be sufficient to reduce the risk posed by IR only herds in England and Wales.

A dynamic model of transmission and elimination of peste des petits ruminants in Ethiopia

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR), a devastating viral disease of sheep and goats, has been targeted by the global community for eradication within the next 15 years. Although an efficacious attenuated live vaccine is available, the lack of knowledge about the transmission potential of PPR virus (PPRV) may compromise eradication efforts. By fitting a metapopulation model simulating PPRV spread to the results of a nationwide serological survey in Ethiopia, we estimated the level of viral transmission in an endemic setting and the vaccination coverage required for elimination. Results suggest that the pastoral production system as a whole acts as a viral reservoir, from which PPRV spills over into the sedentary production system, where viral persistence is uncertain. Estimated levels of PPRV transmission indicate that viral spread could be prevented if the proportion of immune small ruminants is kept permanently above 37% in at least 71% of pastoral village populations. However, due to the high turnover of these populations, maintaining the fraction of immune animals above this threshold would require high vaccine coverage within villages, and vaccination campaigns to be conducted annually. Adapting vaccination strategies to the specific characteristics of the local epidemiological context and small ruminant population dynamics would result in optimized allocation of limited resources and increase the likelihood of PPR eradication.

The applicability of animal health surveillance systems for post-market monitoring of potential adverse effects of genetically modified (GM) feed

A facultative post market monitoring of potential health impacts of genetically modified (GM) feedstuffs on livestock consuming these feeds after pre-market risk assessment is under ongoing consideration. Within the IPAFEED database, scientific studies on health effects beyond performance in livestock and the results of a systematic search for evidence of outcome effects due to GM feed are consolidated. These outcomes were reviewed and checked for consistency in order to identify plausible syndromes suitable for conducting surveillance. The 24 selected studies showed no consistent changes in any health parameter. There were no repeated studies in any species by GM crop type and animal species. As such, there is insufficient evidence to inform the design of surveillance systems for detecting known adverse effects. Animal health surveillance systems have been proposed for the post market monitoring of potential adverse effects in animals. Such systems were evaluated for their applicability to the detection of hypothetical adverse effects and their strengths and weaknesses to detect syndromes of concern are presented. For known adverse effects, applied controlled post-market studies may yield conclusive and high-quality evidence. For detecting unknown adverse effects, the use of existing surveillance systems may still be of interest. A simulation tool developed within the project can be adapted and applied to existing surveillance systems to explore their applicability to the detection of potential adverse effects of GM feed.

Comparative Epidemiology of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus H5N1 and H5N6 in Vietnamese Live Bird Markets: Spatiotemporal Patterns of Distribution and Risk Factors

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus has been circulating in Vietnam since 2003, whilst outbreaks of HPAI H5N6 virus are more recent, having only been reported since 2014. Although the spatial distribution of H5N1 outbreaks and risk factors for virus occurrence has been extensively studied, there have been no comparative studies for H5N6. Data collected through active surveillance of Vietnamese live bird markets (LBMs) between 2011 and 2015 were used to explore and compare the spatiotemporal distributions of H5N1- and H5N6-positive LBMs. Conditional autoregressive models were developed to quantify spatiotemporal associations between agroecological factors and the two HPAI strains using the same set of predictor variables. Unlike H5N1, which exhibited a strong north–south divide, with repeated occurrence in the extreme south of a cluster of high-risk provinces, H5N6 was homogeneously distributed throughout Vietnam. Similarly, different agroecological factors were associated with each strain. Sample collection in the months of January and February and higher average maximum temperature were associated with higher likelihood of H5N1-positive market-day status. The likelihood of market days being positive for H5N6 increased with decreased river density, and with successive Rounds of data collection. This study highlights marked differences in spatial patterns and risk factors for H5N1 and H5N6 in Vietnam, suggesting the need for tailored surveillance and control approaches.

Inferring within-herd transmission parameters for African swine fever virus using mortality data from outbreaks in the Russian Federation

Mortality data are routinely collected for many livestock and poultry species, and they are often used for epidemiological purposes, including estimating transmission parameters. In this study, we infer transmission rates for African swine fever virus (ASFV), an important transboundary disease of swine, using mortality data collected from nine pig herds in the Russian Federation with confirmed outbreaks of ASFV. Parameters in a stochastic model for the transmission of ASFV within a herd were estimated using approximate Bayesian computation. Estimates for the basic reproduction number varied amongst herds, ranging from 4.4 to 17.3. This was primarily a consequence of differences in transmission rate (range: 0.7-2.2), but also differences in the mean infectious period (range: 4.5-8.3 days). We also found differences amongst herds in the mean latent period (range: 5.8-9.7 days). Furthermore, our results suggest that ASFV could be circulating in a herd for several weeks before a substantial increase in mortality is observed in a herd, limiting the usefulness of mortality data as a means of early detection of an outbreak. However, our results also show that mortality data are a potential source of data from which to infer transmission parameters, at least for diseases which cause high mortality.

A Qualitative Stakeholder Analysis of Avian Influenza Policy in Bangladesh

Avian influenza is a major animal and public health concern in Bangladesh. A decade after development and implementation of the first national avian influenza and human pandemic influenza preparedness and response plan in Bangladesh, a two-stage qualitative stakeholder analysis was performed in relation to the policy development process and the actual policy. This study specifically aimed to identify the future policy options to prevent and control avian influenza and other poultry-related zoonotic diseases in Bangladesh. It was recommended that the policy should be based on the One Health concept, be evidence-based, sustainable, reviewed and updated as necessary. The future policy environment that is suitable for developing and implementing these policies should take into account the following points: the need to formally engage multiple sectors, the need for clear and acceptable leadership, roles and responsibilities and the need for a common pool of resources and provision for transferring resources. Most of these recommendations are directed towards the Government of Bangladesh. However, other sectors, including research and poultry production stakeholders, also have a major role to play to inform policy making and actively participate in the multi-sectoral approach.

A large-scale study of a poultry trading network in Bangladesh: implications for control and surveillance of avian influenza viruses

BACKGROUND

Since its first report in 2007, avian influenza (AI) has been endemic in Bangladesh. While live poultry marketing is widespread throughout the country and known to influence AI dissemination and persistence, trading patterns have not been described. The aim of this study is to assess poultry trading practices and features of the poultry trading networks which could promote AI spread, and their potential implications for disease control and surveillance. Data on poultry trading practices was collected from 849 poultry traders during a cross-sectional survey in 138 live bird markets (LBMs) across 17 different districts of Bangladesh. The quantity and origins of traded poultry were assessed for each poultry type in surveyed LBMs. The network of contacts between farms and LBMs resulting from commercial movements of live poultry was constructed to assess its connectivity and to identify the key premises influencing it.

RESULTS

Poultry trading practices varied according to the size of the LBMs and to the type of poultry traded. Industrial broiler chickens, the most commonly traded poultry, were generally sold in LBMs close to their production areas, whereas ducks and backyard chickens were moved over longer distances, and their transport involved several intermediates. The poultry trading network composed of 445 nodes (73.2% were LBMs) was highly connected and disassortative. However, the removal of only 5.6% of the nodes (25 LBMs with the highest betweenness scores), reduced the network's connectedness, and the maximum size of output and input domains by more than 50%.

CONCLUSIONS

Poultry types need to be discriminated in order to understand the way in which poultry trading networks are shaped, and the level of risk of disease spread that these networks may promote. Knowledge of the network structure could be used to target control and surveillance interventions to a small number of LBMs.

epidemix-An interactive multi-model application for teaching and visualizing infectious disease transmission

Mathematical models of disease transmission are used to improve our understanding of patterns of infection and to identify factors influencing them. During recent public and animal health crises, such as pandemic influenza, Ebola, Zika, foot-and-mouth disease, models have made important contributions in addressing policy questions, especially through the assessment of the trajectory and scale of outbreaks, and the evaluation of control interventions. However, their mathematical formulation means that they may appear as a "black box" to those without the appropriate mathematical background. This may lead to a negative perception of their utility for guiding policy, and generate expectations, which are not in line with what these models can deliver. It is therefore important for policymakers, as well as public health and animal health professionals and researchers who collaborate with modelers and use results generated by these models for policy development or research purpose, to understand the key concepts and assumptions underlying these models. The software application epidemix (http://shinyapps.rvc.ac.uk) presented here aims to make mathematical models of disease transmission accessible to a wider audience of users. By developing a visual interface for a suite of eight models, users can develop an understanding of the impact of various modelling assumptions - especially mixing patterns - on the trajectory of an epidemic and the impact of control interventions, without having to directly deal with the complexity of mathematical equations and programming languages. Models are compartmental or individual-based, deterministic or stochastic, and assume homogeneous or heterogeneous-mixing patterns (with the probability of transmission depending on the underlying structure of contact networks, or the spatial distribution of hosts). This application is intended to be used by scientists teaching mathematical modelling short courses to non-specialists - including policy makers, public and animal health professionals and students - and wishing to develop hands-on practicals illustrating key concepts of disease dynamics and control.

Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Release of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus via Export of Bull Semen from Israel

Various foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus strains circulate in the Middle East, causing frequent episodes of FMD outbreaks among Israeli livestock. Since the virus is highly resistant in semen, artificial insemination with contaminated bull semen may lead to the infection of the receiver cow. As a non-FMD-free country with vaccination, Israel is currently engaged in trading bull semen only with countries of the same status. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk of release of FMD virus through export of bull semen in order to estimate the risk for FMD-free countries considering purchasing Israeli bull semen. A stochastic risk assessment model was used to estimate this risk, defined as the annual likelihood of exporting at least one ejaculate of bull semen contaminated with viable FMD virus. A total of 45 scenarios were assessed to account for uncertainty and variability around specific parameter estimates and to evaluate the effect of various mitigation measures, such as performing a preexport test on semen ejaculates. Under the most plausible scenario, the annual likelihood of exporting bull semen contaminated with FMD virus had a median of 1.3 * 10^-7 for an export of 100 ejaculates per year. This corresponds to one infected ejaculate exported every 7 million years. Under the worst-case scenario, the median of the risk rose to 7.9 * 10^-5 , which is equivalent to the export of one infected ejaculate every 12,000 years. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the most influential parameter is the probability of viral excretion in infected bulls.

Trade patterns facilitating highly pathogenic avian influenza virus dissemination in the free-grazing layer duck system in Vietnam

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses continue to threaten smallholder poultry producers in several South-east Asian countries, including Vietnam. In particular, the free-grazing duck system has been repeatedly highlighted as a major risk factor for HPAI outbreaks. Free-grazing ducks, which scavenge on rice paddies after the harvest, account for a large proportion of the duck population in Vietnam and the wider South-east Asian region. However, the structure and dynamics of the free-grazing duck production from farm to consumption has not been described for Vietnam. In this study, we used a value chain approach to provide a complete picture of the actors involved in the production and marketing of free-grazing duck eggs and spent layer ducks, as well as to investigate the governance structure of this food system. Group interviews and key informant interviews were conducted in two provinces located in the Mekong River Delta (MRD) and the Red River Delta (RRD). The results presented here highlight similarities and differences in farming and trade practices between the two provinces. The trade of spent layer ducks involved large volumes of live ducks being sent to China and Cambodia for consumption, generating a substantial risk of transboundary spread of pathogens, including HPAI viruses. We describe the major role of "duck yards", which act as hubs in the northbound trade of spent layer ducks. These yards should be considered as essential links in the value chain of spent layer ducks when considering HPAI surveillance and control. The veterinary authorities are only marginally involved in the value chain activities, and their influence could be strengthened by increasing surveillance activities for instance in duck yards. Last, we discuss the dynamics of the duck value chain and further implications for future HPAI management policies.

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Practices Exposing Humans to Avian Influenza Viruses, Their Prevalence, and Rationale

Almost all human infections by avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are transmitted from poultry. A systematic review was conducted to identify practices associated with human infections, their prevalence, and rationale. Observational studies were identified through database searches. Meta-analysis produced combined odds ratio estimates. The prevalence of practices and rationales for their adoptions were reported. Of the 48,217 records initially identified, 65 articles were included. Direct and indirect exposures to poultry were associated with infection for all investigated viral subtypes and settings. For the most frequently reported practices, association with infection seemed stronger in markets than households, for sick and dead than healthy poultry, and for H7N9 than H5N1. Practices were often described in general terms and their frequency and intensity of contact were not provided. The prevalence of practices was highly variable across studies, and no studies comprehensively explored reasons behind the adoption of practices. Combining epidemiological and targeted anthropological studies would increase the spectrum and detail of practices that could be investigated and should aim to provide insights into the rationale(s) for their existence. A better understanding of these rationales may help to design more realistic and acceptable preventive public health measures and messages.

Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam

While climate is often presented as a key factor influencing the seasonality of diseases, the importance of anthropogenic factors is less commonly evaluated. Using a combination of methods - wavelet analysis, economic analysis, statistical and disease transmission modelling - we aimed to explore the influence of climatic and economic factors on the seasonality of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the domestic poultry population of Vietnam. We found that while climatic variables are associated with seasonal variation in the incidence of avian influenza outbreaks in the North of the country, this is not the case in the Centre and the South. In contrast, temporal patterns of H5N1 incidence are similar across these 3 regions: periods of high H5N1 incidence coincide with Lunar New Year festival, occurring in January-February, in the 3 climatic regions for 5 out of the 8 study years. Yet, daily poultry meat consumption drastically increases during Lunar New Year festival throughout the country. To meet this rise in demand, poultry production and trade are expected to peak around the festival period, promoting viral spread, which we demonstrated using a stochastic disease transmission model. This study illustrates the way in which economic factors may influence the dynamics of livestock pathogens.

Herd-level animal management factors associated with the occurrence of bovine neonatal pancytopenia in calves in a multi-country study

Since 2007, mortality associated with a previously unreported haemorrhagic disease has been observed in young calves in several European countries. The syndrome, which has been named ‘bovine neonatal pancytopenia’ (BNP), is characterised by thrombocytopenia, leukocytopenia and a panmyelophthisis. A herd-level case-control study was conducted in four BNP affected countries (Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands) to identify herd management risk factors for BNP occurrence. Data were collected using structured face-to-face and telephone interviews of farm managers and their local veterinarians. In total, 363 case farms and 887 control farms were included in a matched multivariable conditional logistic regression analysis. Case-control status was strongly associated with the odds of herd level use of the vaccine PregSure® BVD (PregSure, Pfizer Animal Health) (matched adjusted odds ratio (OR) 107.2; 95% CI: 41.0–280.1). This was also the case for the practices of feeding calves colostrum from the calf’s own dam (OR 2.0; 95% CI: 1.1–3.4) or feeding pooled colostrum (OR 4.1; 95% CI: 1.9–8.8). Given that the study had relatively high statistical power and represented a variety of cattle production and husbandry systems, it can be concluded with some confidence that no other herd level management factors are competent causes for a sufficient cause of BNP occurrence on herd level. It is suggested that genetic characteristics of the dams and BNP calves should be the focus of further investigations aimed at identifying the currently missing component causes that together with PregSure vaccination and colostrum feeding represent a sufficient cause for occurrence of BNP in calves.

Methods and processes of developing the strengthening the reporting of observational studies in epidemiology - veterinary (STROBE-Vet) statement

BACKGROUND

The reporting of observational studies in veterinary research presents many challenges that often are not adequately addressed in published reporting guidelines.

OBJECTIVE

To develop an extension of the STROBE (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) statement that addresses unique reporting requirements for observational studies in veterinary medicine related to health, production, welfare, and food safety.

DESIGN

A consensus meeting of experts was organized to develop an extension of the STROBE statement to address observational studies in veterinary medicine with respect to animal health, animal production, animal welfare, and food safety outcomes.

SETTING

Consensus meeting May 11-13, 2014 in Mississauga, Ontario, Canada.

PARTICIPANTS

Seventeen experts from North America, Europe, and Australia attended the meeting. The experts were epidemiologists and biostatisticians, many of whom hold or have held editorial positions with relevant journals.

METHODS

Prior to the meeting, 19 experts completed a survey about whether they felt any of the 22 items of the STROBE statement should be modified and if items should be added to address unique issues related to observational studies in animal species with health, production, welfare, or food safety outcomes. At the meeting, the participants were provided with the survey responses and relevant literature concerning the reporting of veterinary observational studies. During the meeting, each STROBE item was discussed to determine whether or not re-wording was recommended, and whether additions were warranted. Anonymous voting was used to determine whether there was consensus for each item change or addition.

RESULTS

The consensus was that six items needed no modifications or additions. Modifications or additions were made to the STROBE items numbered: 1 (title and abstract), 3 (objectives), 5 (setting), 6 (participants), 7 (variables), 8 (data sources/measurement), 9 (bias), 10 (study size), 12 (statistical methods), 13 (participants), 14 (descriptive data), 15 (outcome data), 16 (main results), 17 (other analyses), 19 (limitations), and 22 (funding).

LIMITATION

Published literature was not always available to support modification to, or inclusion of, an item.

CONCLUSION

The methods and processes used in the development of this statement were similar to those used for other extensions of the STROBE statement. The use of this extension to the STROBE statement should improve the reporting of observational studies in veterinary research related to animal health, production, welfare, or food safety outcomes by recognizing the unique features of observational studies involving food-producing and companion animals, products of animal origin, aquaculture, and wildlife.

Social and environmental factors affect tuberculosis related mortality in wild meerkats

Tuberculosis (TB) is an important and widespread disease of wildlife, livestock and humans world‐wide, but long‐term empirical datasets describing this condition are rare. A population of meerkats (Suricata suricatta) in South Africa's Kalahari Desert have been diagnosed with Mycobacterium suricattae, a novel strain of TB, causing fatal disease in this group‐living species.

This study aimed to find characteristics associated with clinical TB in meerkats. These characteristics could subsequently be used to identify ‘at‐risk’ animals within a population, and target these individuals for control measures.

We conducted a retrospective study based on a unique, long‐term life‐history dataset of over 2000 individually identified animals covering a 14‐year period after the first confirmatory diagnosis of TB in this population in 2001. Individual‐ and group‐level risk factors were analysed using time‐dependent Cox regression to examine their potential influence on the time to development of end‐stage TB.

Cases of disease involved 144 individuals in 27 of 73 social groups, across 12 of 14 years (an incidence rate of 3·78 cases/100 study years). At the individual level, increasing age had the greatest effect on risk of disease with a hazard ratio of 4·70 (95% CI: 1·92–11·53, P < 0·01) for meerkats aged 24–48 months, and a hazard ratio of 9·36 (3·34–26·25, P < 0·001) for animals aged over 48 months (both age categories compared with animals aged below 24 months). Previous group history of TB increased the hazard by a factor of 4·29 (2·00–9·17, P < 0·01), and an interaction was found between this variable and age. At a group level, immigrations of new group members in the previous year increased hazard by a factor of 3·00 (1·23–7·34, P = 0·016). There was weaker evidence of an environmental effect with a hazard ratio for a low rainfall (<200 mm) year of 2·28 (0·91–5·72, P = 0·079).

Our findings identify potential individual characteristics on which to base targeted control measures such as vaccination. Additional data on the dynamics of the infection status of individuals and how this changes over time would complement these findings by enhancing understanding of disease progression and transmission, and thus the implications of potential management measures.

Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations

Zoonotic pathogens are frequently hypothesized as emerging with the origins of farming, but evidence of this is elusive in the archaeological records. To explore the potential impact of animal domestication on zoonotic disease dynamics and human infection risk, we developed a model simulating the transmission of Brucella melitensis within early domestic goat populations. The model was informed by archaeological data describing goat populations in Neolithic settlements in the Fertile Crescent, and used to assess the potential of these populations to sustain the circulation of Brucella. Results show that the pathogen could have been sustained even at low levels of transmission within these domestic goat populations. This resulted from the creation of dense populations and major changes in demographic characteristics. The selective harvesting of young male goats, likely aimed at improving the efficiency of food production, modified the age and sex structure of these populations, increasing the transmission potential of the pathogen within these populations. Probable interactions between Neolithic settlements would have further promoted pathogen maintenance. By fostering conditions suitable for allowing domestic goats to become reservoirs of Brucella melitensis, the early stages of agricultural development were likely to promote the exposure of humans to this pathogen.

Effectiveness and practicality of control strategies for African swine fever: what do we really know?

African swine fever (ASF) is a major pig health problem, and the causative virus is moving closer to Western European regions where pig density is high. Stopping or slowing down the spread of ASF requires mitigation strategies that are both effective and practical. Based on the elicitation of ASF expert opinion, this study identified surveillance and intervention strategies for ASF that are perceived as the most effective by providing the best combination between effectiveness and practicality. Among the 20 surveillance strategies that were identified, passive surveillance of wild boar and syndromic surveillance of pig mortality were considered to be the most effective surveillance strategies for controlling ASF virus spread. Among the 22 intervention strategies that were identified, culling of all infected herds and movement bans for neighbouring herds were regarded as the most effective intervention strategies. Active surveillance and carcase removal in wild boar populations were rated as the most effective surveillance and intervention strategies, but were also considered to be the least practical, suggesting that more research is needed to develop more effective methods for controlling ASF in wild boar populations.

Methods and Processes of Developing the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology-Veterinary (STROBE-Vet) Statement

Reporting of observational studies in veterinary research presents challenges that often are not addressed in published reporting guidelines. Our objective was to develop an extension of the STROBE (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) statement that addresses unique reporting requirements for observational studies in veterinary medicine related to health, production, welfare, and food safety. We conducted a consensus meeting with 17 experts in Mississauga, Canada. Experts completed a premeeting survey about whether items in the STROBE statement should be modified or added to address unique issues related to observational studies in animal species with health, production, welfare, or food safety outcomes. During the meeting, each STROBE item was discussed to determine whether or not rewording was recommended, and whether additions were warranted. Anonymous voting was used to determine consensus. Six items required no modifications or additions. Modifications or additions were made to the STROBE items 1 (title and abstract), 3 (objectives), 5 (setting), 6 (participants), 7 (variables), 8 (data sources and measurement), 9 (bias), 10 (study size), 12 (statistical methods), 13 (participants), 14 (descriptive data), 15 (outcome data), 16 (main results), 17 (other analyses), 19 (limitations), and 22 (funding). The methods and processes used were similar to those used for other extensions of the STROBE statement. The use of this STROBE statement extension should improve reporting of observational studies in veterinary research by recognizing unique features of observational studies involving food-producing and companion animals, products of animal origin, aquaculture, and wildlife.

Explanation and Elaboration Document for the STROBE-Vet Statement: Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology-Veterinary Extension

The STROBE (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) statement was first published in 2007 and again in 2014. The purpose of the original STROBE was to provide guidance for authors, reviewers, and editors to improve the comprehensiveness of reporting; however, STROBE has a unique focus on observational studies. Although much of the guidance provided by the original STROBE document is directly applicable, it was deemed useful to map those statements to veterinary concepts, provide veterinary examples, and highlight unique aspects of reporting in veterinary observational studies. Here, we present the examples and explanations for the checklist items included in the STROBE-Vet statement. Thus, this is a companion document to the STROBE-Vet statement methods and process document (JVIM_14575 "Methods and Processes of Developing the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology-Veterinary (STROBE-Vet) Statement" undergoing proofing), which describes the checklist and how it was developed.

Methods and Processes of Developing the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology - Veterinary (STROBE-Vet) Statement

Background

Reporting of observational studies in veterinary research presents challenges that often are not addressed in published reporting guidelines.

Objective

To develop an extension of the STROBE (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) statement that addresses unique reporting requirements for observational studies in veterinary medicine related to health, production, welfare, and food safety.

Design

Consensus meeting of experts.

Setting

Mississauga, Canada.

Participants

Seventeen experts from North America, Europe, and Australia.

Methods

Experts completed a pre‐meeting survey about whether items in the STROBE statement should be modified or added to address unique issues related to observational studies in animal species with health, production, welfare, or food safety outcomes. During the meeting, each STROBE item was discussed to determine whether or not rewording was recommended and whether additions were warranted. Anonymous voting was used to determine consensus.

Results

Six items required no modifications or additions. Modifications or additions were made to the STROBE items 1 (title and abstract), 3 (objectives), 5 (setting), 6 (participants), 7 (variables), 8 (data sources/measurement), 9 (bias), 10 (study size), 12 (statistical methods), 13 (participants), 14 (descriptive data), 15 (outcome data), 16 (main results), 17 (other analyses), 19 (limitations), and 22 (funding).

Conclusion

The methods and processes used were similar to those used for other extensions of the STROBE statement. The use of this STROBE statement extension should improve reporting of observational studies in veterinary research by recognizing unique features of observational studies involving food‐producing and companion animals, products of animal origin, aquaculture, and wildlife.

Transmission tree of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) epidemic in Israel, 2015

The transmission tree of the Israeli 2015 epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) was modelled by combining the spatio-temporal distribution of the outbreaks and the genetic distance between virus isolates. The most likely successions of transmission events were determined and transmission parameters were estimated. It was found that the median infectious pressure exerted at 1 km was 1.59 times (95% CI 1.04, 6.01) and 3.54 times (95% CI 1.09, 131.75) higher than that exerted at 2 and 5 km, respectively, and that three farms were responsible for all seven transmission events.

Assessing the impact of tailored biosecurity advice on farmer behaviour and pathogen presence in beef herds in England and Wales

The term 'biosecurity' encompasses many measures farmers can take to reduce the risk of pathogen incursion or spread. As the best strategy will vary between settings, veterinarians play an important role in assessing risk and providing advice, but effectiveness requires farmer acceptance and implementation. The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of specifically-tailored biosecurity advice packages in reducing endemic pathogen presence on UK beef suckler farms. One hundred and sixteen farms recruited by 10 veterinary practices were followed for three years. Farms were randomly allocated to intervention (receiving specifically-tailored advice, with veterinarians and farmers collaborating to develop an improved biosecurity strategy) or control (receiving general advice) groups. A spreadsheet-based tool was used annually to attribute a score to each farm reflecting risk of entry or spread of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV), bovine herpesvirus-1 (BHV1), Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), Leptospira interrogans serovar hardjo (L. hardjo) and Mycobacterium bovis (M. bovis). Objectives of these analyses were to identify evidence of reduction in risk behaviours during the study, as well as evidence of reductions in pathogen presence, as indications of effectiveness. Risk behaviours and pathogen prevalences were examined across study years, and on intervention compared with control farms, using descriptive statistics and multilevel regression. There were significant reductions in risk scores for all five pathogens, regardless of intervention status, in every study year compared with the outset. Animals on intervention farms were significantly less likely than those on control farms to be seropositive for BVDV in years 2 and 3 and for L. hardjo in year 3 of the study. Variations by study year in animal-level odds of seropositivity to BHV1 or MAP were not associated with farm intervention status. All farms had significantly reduced odds of BHV1 seropositivity in year 2 than at the outset. Variations in farm-level MAP seropositivity were not associated with intervention status. There were increased odds of M. bovis on intervention farms compared with control farms at the end of the study. Results suggest a structured annual risk assessment process, conducted as a collaboration between veterinarian and farmer, is valuable in encouraging improved biosecurity practices. There were some indications, but not conclusive evidence, that tailored biosecurity advice packages have potential to reduce pathogen presence. These findings will inform development of a collaborative approach to biosecurity between veterinarians and farmers, including adoption of cost-effective strategies effective across pathogens.

Spatial Heterogeneity of Habitat Suitability for Rift Valley Fever Occurrence in Tanzania: An Ecological Niche Modelling Approach

BACKGROUND

Despite the long history of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Tanzania, extent of its suitable habitat in the country remains unclear. In this study we investigated potential effects of temperature, precipitation, elevation, soil type, livestock density, rainfall pattern, proximity to wild animals, protected areas and forest on the habitat suitability for RVF occurrence in Tanzania.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Presence-only records of 193 RVF outbreak locations from 1930 to 2007 together with potential predictor variables were used to model and map the suitable habitats for RVF occurrence using ecological niche modelling. Ground-truthing of the model outputs was conducted by comparing the levels of RVF virus specific antibodies in cattle, sheep and goats sampled from locations in Tanzania that presented different predicted habitat suitability values.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Habitat suitability values for RVF occurrence were higher in the northern and central-eastern regions of Tanzania than the rest of the regions in the country. Soil type and precipitation of the wettest quarter contributed equally to habitat suitability (32.4% each), followed by livestock density (25.9%) and rainfall pattern (9.3%). Ground-truthing of model outputs revealed that the odds of an animal being seropositive for RVFV when sampled from areas predicted to be most suitable for RVF occurrence were twice the odds of an animal sampled from areas least suitable for RVF occurrence (95% CI: 1.43, 2.76, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE

The regions in the northern and central-eastern Tanzania were more suitable for RVF occurrence than the rest of the regions in the country. The modelled suitable habitat is characterised by impermeable soils, moderate precipitation in the wettest quarter, high livestock density and a bimodal rainfall pattern. The findings of this study should provide guidance for the design of appropriate RVF surveillance, prevention and control strategies which target areas with these characteristics.

Investigating poultry trade patterns to guide avian influenza surveillance and control: a case study in Vietnam

Live bird markets are often the focus of surveillance activities monitoring avian influenza viruses (AIV) circulating in poultry. However, in order to ensure a high sensitivity of virus detection and effectiveness of management actions, poultry management practices features influencing AIV dynamics need to be accounted for in the design of surveillance programmes. In order to address this knowledge gap, a cross-sectional survey was conducted through interviews with 791 traders in 18 Vietnamese live bird markets. Markets greatly differed according to the sources from which poultry was obtained, and their connections to other markets through the movements of their traders. These features, which could be informed based on indicators that are easy to measure, suggest that markets could be used as sentinels for monitoring virus strains circulating in specific segments of the poultry production sector. AIV spread within markets was modelled. Due to the high turn-over of poultry, viral amplification was likely to be minimal in most of the largest markets. However, due to the large number of birds being introduced each day, and challenges related to cleaning and disinfection, environmental accumulation of viruses at markets may take place, posing a threat to the poultry production sector and to public health.

Modelling African swine fever presence and reported abundance in the Russian Federation using national surveillance data from 2007 to 2014

African swine fever (ASF) is a viral disease of swine that has been present in the Russian Federation since 2007. Counts of ASF outbreaks reported in the Southern regions of the country (2007-2014) were aggregated to a grid of hexagons, and a zero-inflated Poisson model accounting for spatial dependence between hexagons was used to identify factors associated with the presence of ASF outbreaks and factors associated with the number of ASF reports in affected hexagons. Increasing density of pigs raised on low biosecurity farms was found to be positively associated with the probability of occurrence of at least one ASF outbreak in a hexagon and with the average number of reported ASF outbreaks amongst affected hexagons. Increasing human population density and increasing distance from the closest diagnostic laboratory were additional variables associated with number of reported ASF outbreaks amongst affected hexagons. The model was shown to have good predictive ability.