Effective questionnaire-based prediction models for type 2 diabetes across several ethnicities: a model development and validation study

Background

Type 2 diabetes disproportionately affects individuals of non-White ethnicity through a complex interaction of multiple factors. Therefore, early disease detection and prediction are essential and require tools that can be deployed on a large scale. We aimed to tackle this problem by developing questionnaire-based prediction models for type 2 diabetes prevalence and incidence for multiple ethnicities.

Methods

In this proof of principle analysis, logistic regression models to predict type 2 diabetes prevalence and incidence, using questionnaire-only variables reflecting health state and lifestyle, were trained on the White population of the UK Biobank (n = 472,696 total, aged 37-73 years, data collected 2006-2010) and validated in five other ethnicities (n = 29,811 total) and externally in Lifelines (n = 168,205 total, aged 0-93 years, collected between 2006 and 2013). In total, 631,748 individuals were included for prevalence prediction and 67,083 individuals for the eight-year incidence prediction. Type 2 diabetes prevalence in the UK Biobank ranged between 6% in the White population to 23.3% in the South Asian population, while in Lifelines, the prevalence was 1.9%. Predictive accuracy was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and a detailed sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess potential clinical utility. We compared the questionnaire-only models to models containing physical measurements and biomarkers as well as to clinical non-laboratory type 2 diabetes risk tools and conducted a reclassification analysis.

Findings

Our algorithms accurately predicted type 2 diabetes prevalence (AUC = 0.901) and eight-year incidence (AUC = 0.873) in the White UK Biobank population. Both models replicated well in the Lifelines external validation, with AUCs of 0.917 and 0.817 for prevalence and incidence, respectively. Both models performed consistently well across different ethnicities, with AUCs of 0.855-0.894 for prevalence and 0.819-0.883 for incidence. These models generally outperformed two clinically validated non-laboratory tools and correctly reclassified >3,000 additional cases. Model performance improved with the addition of blood biomarkers but not with the addition of physical measurements.

Interpretation

Our findings suggest that easy-to-implement, questionnaire-based models could be used to predict prevalent and incident type 2 diabetes with high accuracy across several ethnicities, providing a highly scalable solution for population-wide risk stratification. Future work should determine the effectiveness of these models in identifying undiagnosed type 2 diabetes, validated in cohorts of different populations and ethnic representation.

Funding

University Medical Center Groningen.

Identification of genetic variants that impact gene co-expression relationships using large-scale single-cell data

BACKGROUND

Expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) studies show how genetic variants affect downstream gene expression. Single-cell data allows reconstruction of personalized co-expression networks and therefore the identification of SNPs altering co-expression patterns (co-expression QTLs, co-eQTLs) and the affected upstream regulatory processes using a limited number of individuals.

RESULTS

We conduct a co-eQTL meta-analysis across four scRNA-seq peripheral blood mononuclear cell datasets using a novel filtering strategy followed by a permutation-based multiple testing approach. Before the analysis, we evaluate the co-expression patterns required for co-eQTL identification using different external resources. We identify a robust set of cell-type-specific co-eQTLs for 72 independent SNPs affecting 946 gene pairs. These co-eQTLs are replicated in a large bulk cohort and provide novel insights into how disease-associated variants alter regulatory networks. One co-eQTL SNP, rs1131017, that is associated with several autoimmune diseases, affects the co-expression of RPS26 with other ribosomal genes. Interestingly, specifically in T cells, the SNP additionally affects co-expression of RPS26 and a group of genes associated with T cell activation and autoimmune disease. Among these genes, we identify enrichment for targets of five T-cell-activation-related transcription factors whose binding sites harbor rs1131017. This reveals a previously overlooked process and pinpoints potential regulators that could explain the association of rs1131017 with autoimmune diseases.

CONCLUSION

Our co-eQTL results highlight the importance of studying context-specific gene regulation to understand the biological implications of genetic variation. With the expected growth of sc-eQTL datasets, our strategy and technical guidelines will facilitate future co-eQTL identification, further elucidating unknown disease mechanisms.

Single-cell RNA-sequencing of peripheral blood mononuclear cells reveals widespread, context-specific gene expression regulation upon pathogenic exposure

The host's gene expression and gene regulatory response to pathogen exposure can be influenced by a combination of the host's genetic background, the type of and exposure time to pathogens. Here we provide a detailed dissection of this using single-cell RNA-sequencing of 1.3M peripheral blood mononuclear cells from 120 individuals, longitudinally exposed to three different pathogens. These analyses indicate that cell-type-specificity is a more prominent factor than pathogen-specificity regarding contexts that affect how genetics influences gene expression (i.e., eQTL) and co-expression (i.e., co-expression QTL). In monocytes, the strongest responder to pathogen stimulations, 71.4% of the genetic variants whose effect on gene expression is influenced by pathogen exposure (i.e., response QTL) also affect the co-expression between genes. This indicates widespread, context-specific changes in gene expression level and its regulation that are driven by genetics. Pathway analysis on the CLEC12A gene that exemplifies cell-type-, exposure-time- and genetic-background-dependent co-expression interactions, shows enrichment of the interferon (IFN) pathway specifically at 3-h post-exposure in monocytes. Similar genetic background-dependent association between IFN activity and CLEC12A co-expression patterns is confirmed in systemic lupus erythematosus by in silico analysis, which implies that CLEC12A might be an IFN-regulated gene. Altogether, this study highlights the importance of context for gaining a better understanding of the mechanisms of gene regulation in health and disease.

Large-scale cis- and trans-eQTL analyses identify thousands of genetic loci and polygenic scores that regulate blood gene expression

Trait-associated genetic variants affect complex phenotypes primarily via regulatory mechanisms on the transcriptome. To investigate the genetics of gene expression, we performed cis- and trans-expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) analyses using blood-derived expression from 31,684 individuals through the eQTLGen Consortium. We detected cis-eQTL for 88% of genes, and these were replicable in numerous tissues. Distal trans-eQTL (detected for 37% of 10,317 trait-associated variants tested) showed lower replication rates, partially due to low replication power and confounding by cell type composition. However, replication analyses in single-cell RNA-seq data prioritized intracellular trans-eQTL. Trans-eQTL exerted their effects via several mechanisms, primarily through regulation by transcription factors. Expression of 13% of the genes correlated with polygenic scores for 1,263 phenotypes, pinpointing potential drivers for those traits. In summary, this work represents a large eQTL resource, and its results serve as a starting point for in-depth interpretation of complex phenotypes.

Integrating GWAS with bulk and single-cell RNA-sequencing reveals a role for LY86 in the anti-Candida host response

Candida bloodstream infection, i.e. candidemia, is the most frequently encountered life-threatening fungal infection worldwide, with mortality rates up to almost 50%. In the majority of candidemia cases, Candida albicans is responsible. Worryingly, a global increase in the number of patients who are susceptible to infection (e.g. immunocompromised patients), has led to a rise in the incidence of candidemia in the last few decades. Therefore, a better understanding of the anti-Candida host response is essential to overcome this poor prognosis and to lower disease incidence. Here, we integrated genome-wide association studies with bulk and single-cell transcriptomic analyses of immune cells stimulated with Candida albicans to further our understanding of the anti-Candida host response. We show that differential expression analysis upon Candida stimulation in single-cell expression data can reveal the important cell types involved in the host response against Candida. This confirmed the known major role of monocytes, but more interestingly, also uncovered an important role for NK cells. Moreover, combining the power of bulk RNA-seq with the high resolution of single-cell RNA-seq data led to the identification of 27 Candida-response QTLs and revealed the cell types potentially involved herein. Integration of these response QTLs with a GWAS on candidemia susceptibility uncovered a potential new role for LY86 in candidemia susceptibility. Finally, experimental follow-up confirmed that LY86 knockdown results in reduced monocyte migration towards the chemokine MCP-1, thereby implying that this reduced migration may underlie the increased susceptibility to candidemia. Altogether, our integrative systems genetics approach identifies previously unknown mechanisms underlying the immune response to Candida infection.

Candida albicans is a fungus that can cause a life-threatening infection in individuals with an impaired immune system. To improve the prognosis and treatment of patients with such an infection, a better understanding of an individual’s immune response against Candida is required. However, small patient group sizes have limited our ability to gain such understanding. Here we show that integrating many different data layers can improve the sensitivity to detect the effects of genetics on the response to Candida infection and the roles different immune cell types have herein. Using this approach, we were able to prioritize genes that are associated with an increased risk of developing systemic Candida infections. We expand on the gene with the strongest risk association, LY86, and describe a potential mechanism through which this gene affects the immune response against Candida infection. Through experimental follow-up, we provided additional insights into how this gene is associated with an increased risk to develop a Candida infection. We expect that our approach can be generalized to other infectious diseases for which small patient group sizes have restricted our ability to unravel the disease mechanism in more detail. This will provide new opportunities to identify treatment targets in the future.

An integrative approach for building personalized gene regulatory networks for precision medicine

Only a small fraction of patients respond to the drug prescribed to treat their disease, which means that most are at risk of unnecessary exposure to side effects through ineffective drugs. This inter-individual variation in drug response is driven by differences in gene interactions caused by each patient's genetic background, environmental exposures, and the proportions of specific cell types involved in disease. These gene interactions can now be captured by building gene regulatory networks, by taking advantage of RNA velocity (the time derivative of the gene expression state), the ability to study hundreds of thousands of cells simultaneously, and the falling price of single-cell sequencing. Here, we propose an integrative approach that leverages these recent advances in single-cell data with the sensitivity of bulk data to enable the reconstruction of personalized, cell-type- and context-specific gene regulatory networks. We expect this approach will allow the prioritization of key driver genes for specific diseases and will provide knowledge that opens new avenues towards improved personalized healthcare.