Determining the recurrence rate of premature ventricular complexes and idiopathic ventricular tachycardia after radiofrequency catheter ablation with the help of designing a machine-learning model

Ventricular arrhythmias increase cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Recurrent PVCs and IVT are generally considered benign in the absence of structural heart abnormalities. Artificial intelligence is a rapidly growing field. In recent years, medical professionals have shown great interest in the potential use of ML, an integral part of AI, in various disciplines, including diagnostic applications, decision-making, prognostic stratification, and solving complex pathophysiological aspects of diseases from these data at extraordinary complexity, scale, and acquisition rate. The aim of this study was to design an ML model to predict the probability of PVC and IVT recurrence after RF ablation. Data of patients were collected and manipulated using traditional analysis and various artificial intelligence models, namely MLP, Gradient Boosting Machines, Random Forest, and Logistic Regression. Hypertension, male sex, and the use of non-irrigate catheters were associated with less freedom from arrhythmia. All these results were obtained through traditional analytic methods, and according to AI, none of the variables had a clear effect on the recurrence of arrhythmia. Each AI model presents unique strengths and weaknesses, and further optimization and fine-tuning of these models are necessary to increase their clinical utility. By expanding the dataset, improved predictions can be fostered to ultimately increase the clinical utility of AI in predicting PVC erosion outcomes.

The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East is increasing. We aimed to assess the changes in the burden of neurological conditions in this super-region to aid with future decision making.

METHODS

In this analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 data, we examined temporal trends of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; deaths and disabilities combined), deaths, incident cases, and prevalent cases of 14 major neurological conditions and eight subtypes in 21 countries in the north Africa and the Middle East super-region. Additionally, we assessed neurological DALYs due to 22 potentially modifiable risk factors, within four levels of classification, during the period 1990-2019. We used a Bayesian modelling estimation approach, and generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates on the basis of the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 1000 draws from the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 441·1 thousand (95% UI 347·2-598·4) deaths and 17·6 million (12·5-24·7) neurological DALYs in north Africa and the Middle East. The leading causes of neurological DALYs were stroke, migraine, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (hereafter dementias). In north Africa and the Middle East in 2019, 85·8% (82·6-89·1) of stroke and 39·9% (26·4-54·7) of dementia age-standardised DALYs were attributable to modifiable risk factors. North Africa and the Middle East had the highest age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 population due to dementia (387·0 [172·0-848·5]), Parkinson's disease (84·4 [74·7-103·2]), and migraine (601·4 [107·0-1371·8]) among the global super-regions. Between 1990 and 2019, there was a decrease in the age-standardised DALY rates related to meningitis (-75·8% [-81·1 to -69·5]), tetanus (-88·2% [-93·9 to -76·1]), stroke (-32·0% [-39·1 to -23·3]), intracerebral haemorrhage (-51·7% [-58·2 to -43·8]), idiopathic epilepsy (-26·2% [-43·6 to -1·1]), and subarachnoid haemorrhage (-62·8% [-71·6 to -41·0]), but for all other neurological conditions there was no change. During 1990-2019, the number of DALYs due to dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, ischaemic stroke, and headache disorder (ie, migraine and tension-type headache) more than doubled in the super-region, and the burden of years lived with disability (YLDs), incidence, and prevalence of multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, Parkinson's disease, and ischaemic stroke increased both in age-standardised rate and count. During this period, the absolute burden of YLDs due to head and spinal injuries almost doubled.

INTERPRETATION

The increasing burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East accompanies the increasing ageing population. Stroke and dementia are the primary causes of neurological disability and death, primarily attributable to common modifiable risk factors. Synergistic, systematic, lifetime, and multi-sectoral interventions aimed at preventing or mitigating the burden are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Persian, Arabic and Turkish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Interaction between cardiac resynchronization therapy and cytokines in heart failure patients

Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a complex multistage syndrome that has a great financial burden on human societies. It was known that the damaged myocardium sends a signal to stimulate the immune system and proliferation of leukocytes. In continuous, cytokine storm can be initiated and causes the probability of CHF. Persistent inflammation by increasing the levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines, plays an important role in the pathogenesis of CHF and causes remodeling, which is a progressive processs. Although treatment by drugs can reduce mortality and partially control the symptoms of heart failure patients, but complications and mortality are still high. Therefore, other treatment options such as Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy (CRT) are necessary. Today, it is known that CRT can be an effective treatment for many patients with heart failure. CRT is novel, non-pharmacological, and device-based therapy that would be beneficial to know more about its performance in the management of heart failure. In this study, we have reviewed the immunological processes involved in heart failure and the effect of CRT in controlling of the cytokine storm.

Trans-apical catheter ablation of ventricular tachycardia in a patient with metallic aortic and mitral valves

We present a patient with a history of heart failure and metallic aortic and mitral valves surgeries, who required ablation for a drug-refractory left ventricular tachycardia. But the metallic valves prohibited the insertion of catheters via retrograde or via trans-septal approaches. Therefore, we decided to perform catheter ablation by direct left ventricle puncture through a minithoracotomy. The arrhythmia was successfully ablated via of trans-apical approach and did not recur at six months follow-up.

The Global, Regional, and National Burden of Adult Lip, Oral, and Pharyngeal Cancer in 204 Countries and Territories: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Importance

Lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancers are important contributors to cancer burden worldwide, and a comprehensive evaluation of their burden globally, regionally, and nationally is crucial for effective policy planning.

Objective

To analyze the total and risk-attributable burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) for 204 countries and territories and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates.

Evidence Review

The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to LOC and OPC from 1990 to 2019 were estimated using GBD 2019 methods. The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of deaths and DALYs for LOC and OPC attributable to smoking, tobacco, and alcohol consumption in 2019.

Findings

In 2019, 370 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 338 000-401 000) cases and 199 000 (95% UI, 181 000-217 000) deaths for LOC and 167 000 (95% UI, 153 000-180 000) cases and 114 000 (95% UI, 103 000-126 000) deaths for OPC were estimated to occur globally, contributing 5.5 million (95% UI, 5.0-6.0 million) and 3.2 million (95% UI, 2.9-3.6 million) DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, low-middle and low SDI regions consistently showed the highest age-standardized mortality rates due to LOC and OPC, while the high SDI strata exhibited age-standardized incidence rates decreasing for LOC and increasing for OPC. Globally in 2019, smoking had the greatest contribution to risk-attributable OPC deaths for both sexes (55.8% [95% UI, 49.2%-62.0%] of all OPC deaths in male individuals and 17.4% [95% UI, 13.8%-21.2%] of all OPC deaths in female individuals). Smoking and alcohol both contributed to substantial LOC deaths globally among male individuals (42.3% [95% UI, 35.2%-48.6%] and 40.2% [95% UI, 33.3%-46.8%] of all risk-attributable cancer deaths, respectively), while chewing tobacco contributed to the greatest attributable LOC deaths among female individuals (27.6% [95% UI, 21.5%-33.8%]), driven by high risk-attributable burden in South and Southeast Asia.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this systematic analysis, disparities in LOC and OPC burden existed across the SDI spectrum, and a considerable percentage of burden was attributable to tobacco and alcohol use. These estimates can contribute to an understanding of the distribution and disparities in LOC and OPC burden globally and support cancer control planning efforts.

COVID-19's immuno-pathology and cardiovascular diseases

The pandemic of COVID-19 in worldwide causes recent millions of morbidity and mortality in all countries and is the most important challenge in the world in recent years. Coronavirus is a single-stranded RNA virus and infection with COVID-19 leads to acute respiratory distress syndrome, lung inflammation, cytokine storm, and death. The other complications include endothelial dysfunction, activation of coagulation, thromboembolic events, and vascular disease. Cardiovascular complications such as myocardial and stroke ischemia, pulmonary thromboembolism, systemic arterial, and deep vein thrombosis were reported. In this review, we presented immuno-pathological mechanisms and the effects of COVID-19 on the cardiovascular system, heart, vessels, coagulation system, and molecular glance of immuno-inflammation to the COVID-19's pathology on the cardiovascular system.

Effect of Temperature and Humidity on the Allegro-inflammatory Factors and Allergic Rhinitis-related Behavior

Allergic rhinitis (AR) is an allergic disease induced by the T helper 2 (TH2) lymphocyte immune response, where its mediators are the primary cause of clinical symptoms. Environmental factors are the primary determinants of the allergic response in genetically susceptible individuals. This study investigates the effects of climate conditions (warm, cold, humid, and dry) on allergic rhinitis. AR models were created in mice under 4 different conditions. We investigated AR-related behavior (sneezing and nose rubbing), as well as total immunoglobulin E (IgE), histamine, interleukin-4 (IL-4), leukotriene (LT) B4 and LTC4 levels, and gene expression of CysLT1R, HRH1, and MUC5a. Nose rubbing, histamine levels, and the expression of MUC5a and HRH1 were increased in AR models in cold conditions, and sneezing was increased in AR models kept in dry conditions. LTB4 and LTC4 levels and the expression of CysLT1R in AR models kept in a wet environment also significantly increased compared with the control group. The levels of total IgE and IL-4 showed no significant changes. Air temperature and humidity affect AR pathophysiology, and weather conditions can be essential in controlling AR.

Reporting complete heart block in a patient with polyarteritis nodosa after COVID-19 vaccination

Complete heart block (CHB) is a serious health condition, and polyarteritis nodosa (PAN) is an important autoimmune disease. In the COVID-19 pandemy, several vaccines were developed for the COVID-19 disease that shown several side effects, and some of these complications are still unknown. This is the first report of CHB in a patient with history of PAN after COVID-19 vaccination. A 68-year-old man with a history of PAN referred to our hospital, complaining of presyncope episodes and dizziness after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine. Physical examination, laboratory tests, and transthoracic echocardiography were normal. In his electrocardiogram, a narrow QRS complex, AV dissociation, and junctional escape rhythm were seen. Coronary angiography showed a mild coronary artery disease. The patient, suffering from PAN for years, was hypothesized due to CHB a few days after COVID-19 vaccination. This case report suggests that COVID-19 vaccines may interrupt the conduction system of the heart and the fact that underlying PAN may predispose to CHB following COVID-19 vaccination. Further studies are needed to accurately assess a possible association between PAN, CHB, and COVID-19 vaccines.

Age-sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466-469, 470.0, 480-482.8, 483.0-483.9, 484.1-484.2, 484.6-484.7, and 487-489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4-B97.6, J09-J15.8, J16-J16.9, J20-J21.9, J91.0, P23.0-P23.4, and U04-U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age-sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age-sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240-275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217-248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18-1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07-1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16-1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23-1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4-131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4-115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (-70·7% [-77·2 to -61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7-61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7-65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5-14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6-35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3-35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4-25·2) in those aged 15-49 years, 30·5% (24·1-36·9) in those aged 50-69 years, and 21·9% (16·8-27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5-27·9) in those aged 15-49 years and 18·2% (12·5-24·5) in those aged 50-69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2-15·8) of LRI deaths.

INTERPRETATION

The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting wellbeing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.

METHODS

The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

IL-33/ST2 pathway as upper-hand of inflammation in allergic asthma contributes as predictive biomarker in heart failure

Allergic asthma is an inflammatory disorder of the bronchi, and as a major health problem, more than 350 million people suffer from asthma in the world. Many cardiovascular disorders resulted in the impairment of the heart's power to pump blood that leads to the HF. More than 25 million people worldwide live with HF. Accordingly, identifying the biomarkers to predict the onset of future asthma and HF is necessary. IL-33 is an inflammatory cytokine that has the main role in pathophysiology of asthma and HF. Also, in IL-33 receptor, the ST2 is involved in cardiac fibrosis and remodelling in HF and pathogenesis of allergic asthma. Increased sST2 in allergic asthma helps to control inflammation during asthma, but increased sST2 in HF is a predictable biomarker to present risk factor of HF during the time of the patients.

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Given the recent increasing trends in colorectal cancer incidence globally, up-to-date information on the colorectal cancer burden could guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, and help effectively allocate resources. We examined the temporal patterns of the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in 204 countries and territories across the past three decades.

METHODS

Estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for colorectal cancer were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 by age, sex, and geographical location for the period 1990-2019. Mortality estimates were produced using the cause of death ensemble model. We also calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer.

FINDINGS

Globally, between 1990 and 2019, colorectal cancer incident cases more than doubled, from 842 098 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 810 408-868 574) to 2·17 million (2·00-2·34), and deaths increased from 518 126 (493 682-537 877) to 1·09 million (1·02-1·15). The global age-standardised incidence rate increased from 22·2 (95% UI 21·3-23·0) per 100 000 to 26·7 (24·6-28·9) per 100 000, whereas the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 14·3 (13·5-14·9) per 100 000 to 13·7 (12·6-14·5) per 100 000 and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 308·5 (294·7-320·7) per 100 000 to 295·5 (275·2-313·0) per 100 000 from 1990 through 2019. Taiwan (province of China; 62·0 [48·9-80·0] per 100 000), Monaco (60·7 [48·5-73·6] per 100 000), and Andorra (56·6 [42·8-71·9] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised incidence rates, while Greenland (31·4 [26·0-37·1] per 100 000), Brunei (30·3 [26·6-34·1] per 100 000), and Hungary (28·6 [23·6-34·0] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised mortality rates. From 1990 through 2019, a substantial rise in incidence rates was observed in younger adults (age <50 years), particularly in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries. Globally, a diet low in milk (15·6%), smoking (13·3%), a diet low in calcium (12·9%), and alcohol use (9·9%) were the main contributors to colorectal cancer DALYs in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

The increase in incidence rates in people younger than 50 years requires vigilance from researchers, clinicians, and policy makers and a possible reconsideration of screening guidelines. The fast-rising burden in low SDI and middle SDI countries in Asia and Africa calls for colorectal cancer prevention approaches, greater awareness, and cost-effective screening and therapeutic options in these regions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Bronchodilatory effect of higenamine as antiallergic asthma treatment

Asthma is a complex airway disease that affects more than 350 million humans worldwide. Allergic asthma symptoms are induced by Th2 immune response with the release of cytokines and allegro-inflammatory mediators that amplify the inflammatory response, airway hyper-responsiveness (AHR) and hyperproduction of mucus. Higenamine, as a chemical compound, is a β₂ adrenoreceptor agonist and can be used as bronchodilator in allergic asthma.BALB/c mice were allocated in four groups and then allergic asthma was induced in three groups. One of the asthmatic groups was treated with albuterol and other one was treated with higenamine. At least, methacholine challenge to determine the AHR, measurement of cytokines, total immunoglobulin E (IgE), LTB4 and LTC4 levels, evaluation of gene expression of Muc5ac, Muc5b, Agr2 and Arg1, and histopathological study were done.Higenamine treatment reduced AHR, interleukin (IL)-4, IL-13 levels, mRNA expression of MUC5ac, MUC5b, Arg1 and Agr2, goblet cell hyperplasia and mucus hypersecretion. Higenamine had no significant effect on IL-5, interferon-γ (INF-γ), IgE, LTB4, LTC4 levels and eosinophilic inflammation in lung tissue.Higenamine treatment controls asthma acute attack and breathlessness and can be used as asthma treatment with control of AHR and decrease of airflow obstruction and mucus hypersecretion and had allegro-immune-regulatory effect. But higenamine treatment had no notable effect on the inflammation and inflammatory factors.

The Effects of Combined Therapeutic Protocol on Allergic Rhinitis Symptoms and Molecular Determinants

Current medications to treat allergic rhinitis (AR) include antihistamines, corticosteroids, and anti-leukotrienes. In the present study, we investigated the effects of combination therapy; using these drugs, and evaluates the AR-related markers and parameters in an animal model. After inducing BALB/c mice AR models, the animals were treated with either pranlukast, loratadine, fluticasone, loratadine + fluticasone, loratadine + pranlukast, fluticasone + pranlukast, or loratadine + fluticasone + pranlukast. Clinical symptoms, Immunoglobulin (Ig)G1, ovalbumin (OVA)-specific and total IgE, leukotriene (LT)B4, LTC4, histamine, thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP) serum levels, and interleukin 4 level in the nasal lavage fluid were determined. The expressions of HRH1, CysLT1R, NLR3, Caspase-1, and MUC5a were studied. Allergic symptoms (nasal rubbing and sneezing), serum Igs (IgG1, total and OVA-specific IgE), eicosanoids (LTB4 and LTC4), histamine, TSLP, and IL-4 as well as gene expressions of MUC5a, Caspase-1, NLR3, HRH1, and CysLT1R were reduced in the animals receiving each of the therapeutic regimens; however, more pronounced effects were seen in the group treated with the triple combined protocol (loratadine + fluticasone + pranlukast). The combination of the loratadine, fluticasone, and pranlukast can effectively control the symptoms of AR probably via modulating several related mechanisms at early and late phases of allergic responses.

The prevalence of thoracic aorta aneurysm as an important cardiovascular disease in the general population

BACKGROUND

The aorta is the largest and main artery in the body. The enlargement of the aortic diameter known as ectasia results in aneurysm. Thoracic aorta aneurysm can involve one or more segments of the aorta. Non-invasive imaging techniques play an important role in identifying patients, estimating maximal aneurysm diameter, following up patients, and detecting complications. So, this study was performed to estimate the prevalence of ascending thoracic aorta aneurysm in the general population of Iran.

METHODS

People with an abnormal aortic size (˃ 36 mm) were enrolled and subjected to diagnostic tests, and related risk factors were assessed.

RESULT

Of the 3400 people examined, 410 (12%) had abnormal aorta sizes, and 42 (1.2%) had ascending aorta aneurysm. Out of the 410 patients with elevated aorta size, 235 (57%) were males, and 175 (43%) were females. Overall, 229 patients (56%) had hypertension, and 255 (62%) were over 60 years old.

CONCLUSION

In this study, we showed that the prevalence of ascending aorta aneurysm in the general population of Iran was about 1.2%. Ascending aorta aneurysm is a threatening pathology of the aorta. The high prevalence of hypertension may explain the high incidence of aneurysm in our studied population. Therefore, it is necessary to implement an accurate screening plan to identify patients with hypertension and provide appropriate treatment and adequate follow up to patients. Patients with ascending aorta aneurysm are also recommended to modify their lifestyles.

Study effect of probiotics and prebiotics on treatment of OVA-LPS-induced of allergic asthma inflammation and pneumonia by regulating the TLR4/NF-kB signaling pathway

Asthma is a common respiratory disease, and immune system dysregulation has direct relevance to asthma pathogenesis. Probiotics and prebiotics have immunomodulatory effects and can regulate immune responses and may attenuate allergic reactions. Therefore, in this study, we explored the role of probiotics and prebiotics in regulating acute airway inflammation and the TLR4/NF-kB pathway. Allergic asthma model of BALB/c mice was produced and treated with probiotics (LA-5, GG, and BB-12) and prebiotics (FOS and GOS). Then AHR, BALF cells count, EPO activity, IL-4, 5, 13, 17, 25, 33, as well as IFN-γ, total and OVA-specific IgE, IgG1, Cys-LT, LTB4, LTC4, and TSLP levels were measured. Also, the GTP/GOT assay was performed and gene expression of Akt, NLR3, NF-kB, PI3K, MyD88, TLR4, CCL11, CCL24, MUC5a, Eotaxin, IL-38, and IL-8 were determined. Finally, lung histopathological features were evaluated. Treatment with probiotics could control AHR, eosinophil infiltration to the BALF and reduce the levels of immunoglobulins, IL-17, GTP and also decrease mucus secretion, goblet cell hyperplasia, peribronchial and perivascular inflammation and also, EPO activity. It could reduce gene expression of TLR4 and CCL11. On the other hand, IL-38 gene expression was increased by both probiotic and prebiotic treatment. Treatment with probiotics and prebiotics could control levels of IL-4, 5, 13, 25, 33, leukotrienes, the gene expression of AKT, NLR3, NF-κB, MyD88, MUC5a. The prebiotic treatment could control peribronchial inflammation and PI3K gene expression. Both of the treatments had no significant effect on the GOT, TSLP and IL-8, eotaxin and CCL24 gene expression. Probiotics and prebiotics could induce tolerance in allegro-inflammatory reactions and alter immune responses in allergic conditions. Probiotics could also modulate cellular and humoral immune responses and prevent allergic disorders.

Probiotics controls AHR, eosinophil infiltration to the perivascular and BALF, levels of immunoglobulins, IL-17, GTP and also mucus secretion, goblet cell hyperplasia, EPO activity. It could reduce gene expression of TLR4 and CCL11,

Probiotics and prebiotics control levels of cytokines (IL-4, 5, 13, 25, and 33), leukotrienes, the gene expression of AKT, NLR3, NF-κB, MyD88, MUC5a, peribronchial inflammation and increase IL-38 gene expression.

Prebiotic controls and PI3K gene expression.

Mitochondria signaling pathways in allergic asthma

Mitochondria, as the powerhouse organelle of cells, are greatly involved in regulating cell signaling pathways, including those related to the innate and acquired immune systems, cellular differentiation, growth, death, apoptosis, and autophagy as well as hypoxic stress responses in various diseases. Asthma is a chronic complicated airway disease characterized by airway hyperresponsiveness, eosinophilic inflammation, mucus hypersecretion, and remodeling of airway. The asthma mortality and morbidity rates have increased worldwide, so understanding the molecular mechanisms underlying asthma progression is necessary for new anti-asthma drug development. The lung is an oxygen-rich organ, and mitochondria, by sensing and processing O₂, contribute to the generation of ROS and activation of pro-inflammatory signaling pathways. Asthma pathophysiology has been tightly associated with mitochondrial dysfunction leading to reduced ATP synthase activity, increased oxidative stress, apoptosis induction, and abnormal calcium homeostasis. Defects of the mitochondrial play an essential role in the pro-remodeling mechanisms of lung fibrosis and airway cells’ apoptosis. Identification of mitochondrial therapeutic targets can help repair mitochondrial biogenesis and dysfunction and reverse related pathological changes and lung structural remodeling in asthma. Therefore, we here overviewed the relationship between mitochondrial signaling pathways and asthma pathogenic mechanisms.

Effect of Loaded Glycyrrhizic Acid on PLGA Nano-particle on Treatment of Allergic Asthma

Asthma is considered a complex disease of the respiratory system that is characterized by bronchoconstriction, airway inflammation, cough, dyspnea, and wheezing. Allergic reactions are the main reason behind asthma which is known as an important health problem with a high rate of morbidity and mortality in patients with respiratory diseases. Liquorice, the root of Glycyrrhiza, is primarily effective for asthma which is widely used in herbal medicine. In the present study, we designed nano-particles that carry Glycyrrhizic acid as the effective component of Liquorice. After Poly (D,L-lactide-co-glycolic acid) PLGA nanoparticle preparation and Glycyrrhizic acid loading, the morphology of the nanoparticle, the electric charge distribution, and drug-releasing ability were studied. Then the effect of Glycyrrhizic acid-PLGA on the animal model of allergic asthma was investigated. Glycyrrhizic acid-nanoparticle had a mean±SD size of 350±50 nm. about 67% of the effective component was released after 10 h. The interleukin (IL)-4, IL-5, IL-13, and IL-25 levels and the Muc5ac mRNA expression were decreased in the Glycyrrhizic acid-PLGA treated group. In addition, a significant decline was observed in goblet cell hyperplasia, mucus hyper-secretion, and eosinophilic inflammation around bronchi and vessels of the nano-drug treated group, compared with the asthmatic group. We found that Glycyrrhizic acid-PLGA nanoparticle had an anti-asthma effect which may be used as a new drug to cure asthma. It can prevent bronchial obstruction, breathlessness, and asthma attacks.

Immunoregulatory effect of mesenchymal stem cell via mitochondria signaling pathways in allergic asthma

Asthma is a complicated lung disease, which has increased morbidity and mortality rates in worldwide. There is an overlap between asthma pathophysiology and mitochondrial dysfunction and MSCs may have regulatory effect on mitochondrial dysfunction and treats asthma. Therefore, immune-modulatory effect of MSCs and mitochondrial signaling pathways in asthma was studied.

After culturing of MSCs and producing asthma animal model, the mice were treated with MSCs via IV via IT. BALf's eosinophil Counting, The levels of IL-4, −5, −13, −25, –33, INF-γ, Cys-LT, LTB4, LTC4, mitochondria genes expression of COX-1, COX-2, ND1, Nrf2, Cytb were measured and lung histopathological study were done.

BALf's eosinophils, the levels of IL-4, −5, −13, −25, –33, LTB4, LTC4, Cys-LT, the mitochondria genes expression (COX-1, COX-2, Cytb and ND-1), perivascular and peribronchial inflammation, mucus hyper-production and hyperplasia of the goblet cell in pathological study were significantly decreased in MSCs-treated asthma mice and reverse trend was found about Nrf-2 gene expression, IFN-γ level and ratio of the INF-γ/IL-4.

MSC therapy can control inflammation, immune-inflammatory factors in asthma and mitochondrial related genes, and prevent asthma immune-pathology.

Right atrial clot and pulmonary embolism in a patient with COVID-19: A case report

The infection caused by the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) immersed the globe into a widespread pandemic. The disease leads to acute respiratory disease syndrome , hypercoagulation, and cardio-vascular diseases. In this case report, we presented an 80-year-old man with right atrial clot and acute pulmonary embolism, who was diagnosed with COVID-19. The patient was isolated and transferred to the intensive care unit with a diagnosis of submissive pulmonary thromboembolism and right atrial clot following COVID-19 infection. Antibiotics and anticoagulants were administered, and the patient was referred for mechanical thrombectomy. He did not die and after recovery, was discharged with warfarin administration. Preventing thromboembolic events seems to be the first priority in the management of COVID-19 patients. It is necessary to look for strategies to manage and prevent the early occurrence of thromboembolic events in these patients.

Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.

METHODS

We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.

FINDINGS

Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier.

INTERPRETATION

Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Acute upper limb ischemia in a patient with COVID-19: A case report

The novel pandemic of coronavirus infection (COVID-19) has been linked with coagulopathy and thromboembolic events, causing limb loss and finally death. The present report describes a case of upper limb ischemia in a patient with COVID-19 infection, who lacked conventional risk factors for acute limb ischemia (ALI).mAn 83 year-old man with intraluminal thrombus and the occlusion of the axillary and brachial arteries, ceasing blood supply to the distal part of the body, was tested positive for the COVID-19 infection. The patient received therapeutic anticoagulation and underwent open thromboembolectomy, which failed to save the patient's life. The link between COVID-19 and thromboembolism remains unknown and needs further studies to be disclosed.

Study effect of Baicalein encapsulated/loaded Chitosan-nanoparticle on allergic Asthma pathology in mouse model

Asthma as chronic airway disease has high prevalence in children and imbalance of Th1/Th2 is a critical mechanism in pathogenesis of the asthma. Baicalein as a cell protective and anti-inflammatory flavonoid may have anti-asthma effect. Therefore, for better using lung, baicalein was used in chitosan-nanoparticle as anti-asthma treatment.

Baicalein was loaded and encapsulated in chitosan nanoparticle. The morphology, physical characters (particle size, zeta potential and FT-IR) were analyzed. Drug encapsulation and loading capacity, accumulative release-time were studied. After asthma model producing, the mice were treated with L-B-NP and E-B-NP. At least, MCh challenge test, Cytokines measurement and Lung Histopathology were done.

Nanoparticles had average size 285 ± 25 nm with negative charge −2.5 mV. The L-B-NP decreased penh value and E-B-NP decreased inflammation. Both nanoparticles increased IL-12 and decreased IL-5. Also, L-B-NP decreased mucus secretion in bronchi.

L-B-NP and E-B-NP control immune-allergo-inflammatory response of asthma. L-B-NP controlled AHR and E-B-NP controlled inflammation that can be used as controlling anti-asthma drug.

PI3K/AKT/mTOR and TLR4/MyD88/NF-κB Signaling Inhibitors Attenuate Pathological Mechanisms of Allergic Asthma

Asthma is an inflammatory airway disease wherein bronchoconstriction, airway inflammation, and airway obstruction during asthma attacks are the main problems. It is recognized that imbalance of Th1/Th2 and Th17/Treg is a critical factor in asthma pathogenesis. Manipulation of these with signaling molecules such as mTOR, PI3K, Akt, and MyD88 can control asthma. Mouse model of allergic asthma was produced and treated with ketamine, metformin, metformin and ketamine, triciribine, LY294002, and torin2. MCh challenge test, BALf's Eos Count, the IL-4, 5, INF-γ, eicosanoid, total IgE levels were determined. The MUC5a, Foxp3, RORγt, PI3K, mTOR, Akt, PU.1, and MyD88 gene expressions and histopathology study were done. Asthma groups that were treated with all six components had reduced Penh value, total IgE, IL-4 and IL-5 levels, MUC5a, RORγt, MyD88 and mTOR expression, goblet cell hyperplasia, and mucus hyper-secretion. The eosinophil percentage and Cys-LT level were decreased by metformin and ketamine, triciribine, LY294002, and torin2. The level of IFN-γ was increased in triciribine, LY294002, and torin2. Metformin, metformin and ketamine, triciribine, LY294002, and torin2 reduced Akt and PI3K expression, peribronchial and perivascular inflammation, and increased expression of Foxp3. Torin2 had an effect on PU.1 expression. Inhibition of PI3K/AKT/mTOR and TLR4/MyD88/NF-κB signaling with targeted molecules can attenuate asthma pathology and play an important role in airways protection.

Effects of vitamin E and selenium on allergic rhinitis and asthma pathophysiology

Allergic diseases such as asthma and rhinitis are common health problems that affect hundreds of millions of people in the world. T helper 2 cytokines participate in the immune responses in these diseases. Vitamin E and selenium (Se) are supplementary factors which have immunomodulatory and antioxidant effects. The present study investigated the effects of vit E + Se administration on allergic symptoms in mice models of asthma and rhinitis. Mice were treated with vit E and Se, and the levels of IL-4, IL-5, IL-13, IL-25, IL-33, total IgE, and histamine were measured. Lung histopathology was also analyzed. Our results indicated that vit E could attenuate allergic rhinitis and asthma symptoms; nevertheless, treatment with Se alone was not effective in controlling allergic symptoms. We noticed reduced airway inflammation and constriction and mucus secretion in the mice, especially when vit E was used in combination with Se. Our result suggested that vit E, especially in combination with Se, could control allergic mediators and symptoms in rhinitis and asthma and reduce pulmonary inflammation and airway mucus secretion, helping to open obstructed bronchi.

Immunomodulatory effects of two silymarin isomers in a Balb/c mouse model of allergic asthma

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Allergic asthma is a complex chronic disease of the respiratory system presenting with cough, dyspnea, wheezing and airway obstruction. More than 300 million people of all age spectrums suffer from asthma worldwide. Immunological and inflammatory processes are main contributors to asthma. Cytokines produced by T helper 2 lymphocytes play main roles in asthma development and progression. Silymarin, a therapeutic agent with anti-oxidative properties, is a main component of Silybium marinum. We herein aimed to compare the anti-inflammatory and anti-allergic effects of two silymarin isomers, isosilybin A and silydianin, in the treatment of allergic asthma.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

After isolating and purifying isosilybin A and silydianin, Balb/c mouse model of allergic asthma was produced using ovalbumin injection. Seventy mice were categorized into five (1 normal and 4 asthmatic) groups (n = 14 per group). Mice in three of four asthmatic groups were treated with either isosilybin A, silydianin or budesonide. The 4th asthmatic group was used as positive control, with the non-asthmatic group serving as negative control. Airway hyperresponsiveness (AHR) and levels of IL-4, IL-5 and IL-13 in the BAL fluid were determined. Gene expressions of IL-4, IL-5, IL-13 and MUC5ac, as well as IgE serum level were also measured. Cellular composition of BAL fluid and lungs histopathology were finally investigated.

RESULTS

Isosilybin A and silydianin reduced eosinophilic infiltration of lungs, IL-4 and IL-5 levels in BAL fluid, IL-4 and IL-5 gene expressions, as well as AHR in Balb/c mouse model of asthma. However, no significant changes were observed in IL-13 level and mucus hyper-secretion.

CONCLUSION

According to our study, isosilybin A and silydianin can control main symptoms of asthma by modulating immune responses.

Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

BACKGROUND

Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs.

FINDINGS

Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-40·7) to 50·3% (50·0-50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1-46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5-29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2-89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6-80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6-59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Red Cell Distribution Width and Severe Left Ventricular Dysfunction in Ischemic Heart Failure

OBJECTIVE

The red cell distribution width (RDW), a simple and widely available marker, has been linked with an increased risk of adverse outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF) and risk of death, and cardiovascular events in those with previous myocardial infarction, but its relation with the severity of left ventricular (LV) dysfunction is not fully investigated. The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic value of the RDW in post myocardial infarction patients with typical signs and symptoms of HF and with reduced LV ejection fraction (EF).

METHODS

Patients (n = 350) came from an ongoing registry of consecutive patients who admitted for ischemic heart disease at our center. All patients were followed up 1 year after the initial hospitalization by telephone interviews. The outcomes studied were mortality and hospitalization because of decompensated HF.

RESULTS

RDW-coefficient of variation (express in percentage) was calculated from SD of mean corpuscular volume and mean corpuscular volume itself. Using logistic regression analysis, 3 variables consisting age, RDW level, and hemoglobin were identified as independent predictors of severe LV dysfunction (LVEF <30%). Levels of RDW were associated with the presence of severe LV dysfunction, with an accuracy of 61.4% (95% confidence interval: 56.2%-66.4%) and 66.9% (95% confidence interval: 61.8%-71.6%), using cut-off values of higher than 13.5 and 13.8, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that elevated RDW may be used as a prognostic tool among HF patients with the documented myocardial infarction because it is an inexpensive, rapidly calculated test that is already routinely in use in practice.