Active alcohol consumption is associated with acute-on-chronic liver failure in Hispanic patients

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a severe clinical entity associated with elevated short-term mortality. We aimed to characterize patients with decompensated cirrhosis according to presence of ACLF, their association with active alcohol intake, and long-term survival in Latin America.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of decompensated cirrhotic in three Chilean university centers (2017-2019). ACLF was diagnosed according EASL-CLIF criteria. We assessed survival using competing-risk and time-to-event analyses. We evaluated the time to death using accelerated failure time (AFT) models.

RESULTS

We included 320 patients, median age of 65.3±11.7 years old, and 48.4% were women. 92 (28.7%) patients met ACLF criteria (ACLF-1: 29.3%, ACLF-2: 27.1%, and ACLF-3: 43.4%). The most common precipitants were infections (39.1%), and the leading organ failure was kidney (59.8%). Active alcohol consumption was frequent (27.7%), even in patients with a prior diagnosis of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) (16.2%). Ninety-two (28.7%) patients had ACLF (ACLF-1: 8.4%, ACLF-2: 7.8%, and ACLF-3: 12.5%). ACLF patients had a higher MELD-Na score at admission (27 [22-31] versus 16 [12-21], p<0.0001), a higher frequency of alcohol-associated liver disease (36.7% versus 24.9%, p=0.039), and a more frequent active alcohol intake (37.2% versus 23.8%, p=0.019). In a multivariate model, ACLF was associated with higher mortality (subdistribution hazard ratio 1.735, 95%CI: 1.153-2.609; p<0.008). In the AFT models, the presence of ACLF during hospitalization correlated with a shorter time to death: ACLF-1 shortens the time to death by 4.7 times (time ratio [TR] 0.214, 95%CI: 0.075-0.615; p<0.004), ACLF-2 by 4.4 times (TR 0.224, 95%CI: 0.070-0.713; p<0.011), and ACLF-3 by 37 times (TR 0.027, 95%CI: 0.006-0.129; p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with decompensated cirrhosis and ACLF exhibited a high frequency ofactive alcohol consumption. Patients with ACLF showed higher mortality and shorter time todeath than those without ACLF.

An artificial intelligence-generated model predicts 90-day survival in alcohol-associated hepatitis: A global cohort study

BACKGROUND AIMS

Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) poses significant short-term mortality. Existing prognostic models lack precision for 90-day mortality. Utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) in a global cohort, we sought to derive and validate an enhanced prognostic model.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

The Global AlcHep initiative, a retrospective study across 23 centers in 12 countries, enrolled AH patients per NIAAA criteria. Centers were partitioned into derivation (11 centers, 860 patients) and validation cohorts (12 centers, 859 patients). Focusing on 30 and 90-day post-admission mortality, three AI algorithms (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting) informed an ensemble model, subsequently refined via Bayesian updating, integrating the derivation cohort's average 90-day mortality with each center's approximate mortality rate to produce post-test probabilities. The ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence (ALCHAIN) Ensemble score integrated age, gender, cirrhosis, and 9 laboratory values, with center-specific mortality rates. Mortality was 18.7% (30-day) and 27.9% (90-day) in the derivation cohort, versus 21.7% and 32.5% in the validation cohort. Validation cohort 30 and 90-day AUCs were 0.811 (0.779 - 0.844) and 0.799 (0.769 - 0.830), significantly surpassing legacy models like Maddrey's Discriminant Function, MELD variations, ABIC, Glasgow, and modified Glasgow Scores (p<0.001). ALCHAIN Ensemble score also showcased superior calibration against MELD and its variants. Steroid use improved 30-day survival for those with an ALCHAIN Ensemble score>0.20 in both derivation and validation cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Harnessing AI within a global consortium, we pioneered a scoring system excelling over traditional models for 30 and 90-day AH mortality predictions. Beneficial for clinical trials, steroid therapy, and transplant indications, it's accessible at: https://aihepatology.shinyapps.io/ALCHAIN/.

Association between public health policies on alcohol and worldwide cancer, liver disease and cardiovascular disease outcomes

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The long-term impact of alcohol-related public health policies (PHPs) on disease burden is unclear. We aimed to assess the association between alcohol-related PHPs and alcohol-related health consequences.

METHODS

We conducted an ecological multi-national study including 169 countries. We collected data on alcohol-related PHPs from the WHO Global Information System of Alcohol and Health 2010. Data on alcohol-related health consequences between 2010-2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease database. We classified PHPs into five items, including criteria for low, moderate, and strong PHP establishment. We estimated an alcohol preparedness index (API) using multiple correspondence analysis (0 lowest and 100 highest establishment). We estimated an incidence rate ratio (IRR) for outcomes according to API using adjusted multilevel generalized linear models with a Poisson family distribution.

RESULTS

The median API in the 169 countries was 54 [IQR 34.9-76.8]. The API was inversely associated with alcohol use disorder (AUD) prevalence (IRR 0.13; 95% CI 0.03-0.60; p = 0.010), alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) mortality (IRR 0.14; 95% CI 0.03-0.79; p = 0.025), mortality due to neoplasms (IRR 0.09; 95% CI 0.02-0.40; p = 0.002), alcohol-attributable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (IRR 0.13; 95% CI 0.02-0.65; p = 0.014), and cardiovascular diseases (IRR 0.09; 95% CI 0.02-0.41; p = 0.002). The highest associations were observed in the Americas, Africa, and Europe. These associations became stronger over time, and AUD prevalence was significantly lower after 2 years, while ALD mortality and alcohol-attributable HCC incidence decreased after 4 and 8 years from baseline API assessment, respectively (p <0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The API is a valuable instrument to quantify the robustness of alcohol-related PHP establishment. Lower AUD prevalence and lower mortality related to ALD, neoplasms, alcohol-attributable HCC, and cardiovascular diseases were observed in countries with a higher API. Our results encourage the development and strengthening of alcohol-related policies worldwide.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

We first developed an alcohol preparedness index, an instrument to assess the existence of alcohol-related public policies for each country. We then evaluated the long-term association of the country's alcohol preparedness index in 2010 with the burden of chronic liver disease, hepatocellular carcinoma, other neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease. The strengthening of alcohol-related public health policies could impact long-term mortality rates from cardiovascular disease, neoplasms, and liver disease. These conditions are the main contributors to the global burden of disease related to alcohol use. Over time, this association has not only persisted but also grown stronger. Our results expand the preliminary evidence regarding the importance of public health policies in controlling alcohol-related health consequences.

MELD 3.0 adequately predicts mortality and renal replacement therapy requirements in patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis

Background & Aims

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score better predicts mortality in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) but could underestimate severity in women and malnourished patients. Using a global cohort, we assessed the ability of the MELD 3.0 score to predict short-term mortality in AH.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients admitted to hospital with AH from 2009 to 2019. The main outcome was all-cause 30-day mortality. We compared the AUC using DeLong's method and also performed a time-dependent AUC with competing risks analysis.

Results

A total of 2,124 patients were included from 28 centres from 10 countries on three continents (median age 47.2 ± 11.2 years, 29.9% women, 71.3% with underlying cirrhosis). The median MELD 3.0 score at admission was 25 (20-33), with an estimated survival of 73.7% at 30 days. The MELD 3.0 score had a better performance in predicting 30-day mortality (AUC:0.761, 95%CI:0.732-0.791) compared with MELD sodium (MELD-Na; AUC: 0.744, 95% CI: 0.713-0.775; p = 0.042) and Maddrey's discriminant function (mDF) (AUC: 0.724, 95% CI: 0.691-0.757; p = 0.013). However, MELD 3.0 did not perform better than traditional MELD (AUC: 0.753, 95% CI: 0.723-0.783; p = 0.300) and Age-Bilirubin-International Normalised Ratio-Creatinine (ABIC) (AUC:0.757, 95% CI: 0.727-0.788; p = 0.765). These results were consistent in competing-risk analysis, where MELD 3.0 (AUC: 0.757, 95% CI: 0.724-0.790) predicted better 30-day mortality compared with MELD-Na (AUC: 0.739, 95% CI: 0.708-0.770; p = 0.028) and mDF (AUC:0.717, 95% CI: 0.687-0.748; p = 0.042). The MELD 3.0 score was significantly better in predicting renal replacement therapy requirements during admission compared with the other scores (AUC: 0.844, 95% CI: 0.805-0.883).

Conclusions

MELD 3.0 demonstrated better performance compared with MELD-Na and mDF in predicting 30-day and 90-day mortality, and was the best predictor of renal replacement therapy requirements during admission for AH. However, further prospective studies are needed to validate its extensive use in AH.

Impact and implications

Severe AH has high short-term mortality. The establishment of treatments and liver transplantation depends on mortality prediction. We evaluated the performance of the new MELD 3.0 score to predict short-term mortality in AH in a large global cohort. MELD 3.0 performed better in predicting 30- and 90-day mortality compared with MELD-Na and mDF, but was similar to MELD and ABIC scores. MELD 3.0 was the best predictor of renal replacement therapy requirements. Thus, further prospective studies are needed to support the wide use of MELD 3.0 in AH.

Public Health Measures and Prevention of Alcohol-Associated Liver Disease

Hazardous alcohol consumption causes approximately 4% of deaths globally, constituting one of the leading risk factors for the burden of the disease worldwide. Alcohol has several health consequences, such as alcohol-associated liver disease, hepatocellular carcinoma, nonliver neoplasms, physical injury, cardiac disease, and psychiatric disorders. Alcohol misuse significantly affects workforce productivity, with elevated direct and indirect economic costs. Due to the high impact of alcohol consumption on the population, public health has led to the development of a range of strategies to reduce its harmful effects. Regulatory public health policies (PHP) for alcohol can exist at the global, regional, international, national, or subnational levels. Effective strategies incorporate a multilevel, multicomponent approach, targeting multiple determinants of drinking and alcohol-related harms. The World Health Organization categorizes the PHP into eight categories: national plan to fight the harmful consequences of alcohol, national license and production and selling control, taxes control and pricing policies, limiting drinking age, restrictions on alcohol access, driving-related alcohol policies, control over advertising and promotion, and government monitoring systems. These policies are supported by evidence from different populations, demonstrating that determinants of alcohol use depend on several factors such as socioeconomic level, age, sex, ethnicity, production, availability, marketing, and others. Although most policies have a significant individual effect, a higher number of PHP are associated with a lower burden of disease due to alcohol. The excessive consequences of alcohol constitute a call for action, and clinicians should advocate for developing and implementing a new PHP on alcohol consumption.

Current Medical Treatment for Alcohol-Associated Liver Disease

Alcohol-associated liver disease is one of the main causes of chronic liver disease. It comprises a clinical-histologic spectrum of presentations, from steatosis, steatohepatitis, to different degrees of fibrosis, including cirrhosis and severe necroinflammatory disease, called alcohol-associated hepatitis. In this focused update, we aim to present specific therapeutic interventions and strategies for the management of alcohol-associated liver disease. Current evidence for management in all spectra of manifestations is derived from general chronic liver disease recommendations, but with a higher emphasis on abstinence and nutritional support. Abstinence should comprise the treatment of alcohol use disorder as well as withdrawal syndrome. Nutritional assessment should also consider the presence of sarcopenia and its clinical manifestation, frailty. The degree of compensation of the disease should be evaluated, and complications, actively sought. The most severe acute form of this disease is alcohol-associated hepatitis, which has high mortality and morbidity. Current treatment is based on corticosteroids that act by reducing immune activation and blocking cytotoxicity and inflammation pathways. Other aspects of treatment include preventing and treating hepatorenal syndrome as well as preventing infections although there is no clear evidence as to the benefit of probiotics and antibiotics in prophylaxis. Novel therapies for alcohol-associated hepatitis include metadoxine, interleukin-22 analogs, and interleukin-1-beta antagonists. Finally, granulocyte colony-stimulating factor, microbiota transplantation, and gut-liver axis modulation have shown promising results. We also discuss palliative care in advanced alcohol-associated liver disease.

Alcohol Consumption: Medical Implications, the Liver and Beyond

Alcohol consumption represents a major factor of morbidity and mortality, with a wide range of adverse medical implications that practically affect every organ system. It is the fifth major cause of deaths in men and women and causes up to 139 million disability-adjusted life years. Solid evidence places the risk as undoubtedly correlated to the length of time and amount of alcohol consumption. While alcohol-related liver disease represents one of the most studied and well-known consequences of alcohol use, the term itself embodies a wide spectrum of progressive disease stages that are responsible for almost half of the liver-related mortality worldwide. We discuss the staged alcohol-related fatty liver, alcohol-related steatohepatitis and, finally, fibrosis and cirrhosis, which ultimately may end up in a hepatocellular carcinoma. Other comorbidities such as acute and chronic pancreatitis; central nervous system; cardiovascular, respiratory and endocrine system; renal disease; urological pathologies; type 2 diabetes mellitus and even infectious diseases are reviewed in their relation to alcohol consumption. This article reviews the impact of alcohol use on different systems and organs, summarizing available evidence regarding its medical implications. It examines current basic and clinical data regarding mechanisms to highlight factors and processes that may be targetable to improve patient outcomes. Although alcohol use is a part of many cultural and social practices, as healthcare providers we must identify populations at high risk of alcohol abuse, educate patients about the potential alcohol-related harm and provide appropriate treatment.

Colorectal adenomas and MAFLD: a cross-sectional study in a hispanic screening cohort

Aims: Prior evidence demonstrates an association between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and colorectal adenomas (CRA) risk. However, information using the new definition of the disease [i.e., metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD)] is scarce. We aimed to assess the relationship between MAFLD and CRA risk. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study including patients from three university centers in Chile who underwent a colonoscopy for colorectal cancer screening and abdominal imaging study. We obtained sociodemographic and clinical data, and we performed univariate and multivariable regression analyses. Results: In total, 895 patients were included; 42% were male, the mean age was 59.9 ± 9.3 years, and 37.8% (338) had CRA. Patients harboring polyps were predominantly males (48.2% vs. 38.2%, P = 0.002), older (61.6 ± 8.7 years vs. 58.9 ± 9.5 years, P < 0.001), and exhibited a higher body weight than controls [75 (66-88) kg vs. 72 (63-82.3) kg, P = 0.002]. Fifty-six percent of patients showed hepatic steatosis in imaging studies and 54.4% met MAFLD diagnostic criteria. The adenoma detection rate was higher in the MAFLD group compared to controls (46.4% vs. 27.5%, P < 0.001). In the multivariable analysis, MAFLD was significantly associated with the presence of CRA (odds ratio = 2.32; 95%CI: 1.68-3.19, P < 0.0001). There were no statistically significant differences of histopathological characteristics of the adenomas according to the presence of MAFLD. Conclusion: The present study shows that, in Chilean Hispanic subjects, MAFLD is associated with an increased risk of CRA. This information may be useful to design specific screening colonoscopy recommendations in MAFLD patients.

COVID-19 and Indirect Liver Injury: A Narrative Synthesis of the Evidence

The liver is frequently affected by severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. The most common manifestations are mildly elevated alanine aminotransferase and aspartate aminotransferase, with a prevalence of 16-53% among patients. Cases with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) seem to have higher rates of acute liver dysfunction, and the presence of abnormal liver tests at admission signifies a higher risk of severe disease during hospitalization. Patients with chronic liver diseases also have a higher risk of severe disease and mortality (mainly seen in patients with metabolic-associated fatty liver disease). Several pathways of damage have been proposed in the liver involvement of COVID-19 patients; although, the end-cause is most likely multifactorial. Abnormal liver tests have been attributed to the expression of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptors in SARS-CoV-2 infection. This enzyme is expressed widely in cholangiocytes and less in hepatocytes. Other factors attributed to liver damage include drug-induced liver injury, uncontrolled release of proinflammatory molecules ("cytokine storm"), pneumonia-associated hypoxia, and direct damage by the infection. Hepatic steatosis, vascular thrombosis, fibrosis, and inflammatory features (including Kupffer cell hyperplasia) are the most common liver histopathological findings in deceased COVID-19 patients, suggesting important indirect mechanisms of liver damage. In this translational medicine-based narrative review, we summarize the current data on the possible indirect mechanisms involved in liver damage due to COVID-19, the histopathological findings, and the impact of these mechanisms in patients with chronic liver disease.