Interplay of Climate Change and Air Pollution- Projection of the under-5 mortality attributable to ambient particulate matter (PM2.5) in South Asia

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution is a leading health risk factor for children under- 5 years, especially in developing countries. South Asia is a PM2.5 hotspot, where climate change, a potential factor affecting PM2.5 pollution, adds a major challenge. However, limited evidence is available on under-5 mortality attributable to PM2.5 under different climate change scenarios. This study aimed to project under-5 mortality attributable to long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 under seven air pollution and climate change mitigation scenarios in South Asia. We used a concentration-risk function obtained from a previous review to project under-5 mortality attributable to ambient PM2.5. With a theoretical minimum risk exposure level of 2.4 μg/m3, this risk function was linked to gridded annual PM2.5 concentrations from atmospheric modeling to project under-5 mortality from 2010 to 2049 under different climate change mitigation scenarios. The scenarios were developed from the Aim/Endues global model based on end-of-pipe (removing the emission of air pollutants at the source, EoP) and 2 °C target measures. Our results showed that, in 2010-2014, about 306.8 thousand under-5 deaths attributable to PM2.5 occurred in South Asia under the Reference (business as usual) scenario. The number of deaths was projected to increase in 2045-2049 by 36.6% under the same scenario and 7.7% under the scenario where EoP measures would be partially implemented by developing countries (EoPmid), and was projected to decrease under other scenarios, with the most significant decrease (81.2%) under the scenario where EoP measures would be fully enhanced by all countries along with the measures to achieve 2 °C target (EoPmaxCCSBLD) across South Asia. Country-specific projections of under-5 mortality varied by country. The current emission control strategy would not be sufficient to reduce the number of deaths in South Asia. Robust climate change mitigation and air pollution control policy implementation is required.

Plant Molecular Phenology and Climate Feedbacks Mediated by BVOCs

Climate change profoundly affects the timing of seasonal activities of organisms, known as phenology. The impact of climate change is not unidirectional; it is also influenced by plant phenology as plants modify atmospheric composition and climatic processes. One important aspect of this interaction is the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), which link the Earth's surface, atmosphere, and climate. BVOC emissions exhibit significant diurnal and seasonal variations and are therefore considered essential phenological traits. To understand the dynamic equilibrium arising from the interplay between plant phenology and climate, this review presents recent advances in comprehending the molecular mechanisms underpinning plant phenology and its interaction with climate. We provide an overview of studies investigating molecular phenology, genome-wide gene expression analyses conducted in natural environments, and how these studies revolutionize the concept of phenology, shifting it from observable traits to dynamic molecular responses driven by gene-environment interactions. We explain how this knowledge can be scaled up to encompass plant populations, regions, and even the globe by establishing connections between molecular phenology, changes in plant distribution, species composition, and climate. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Plant Biology, Volume 75 is May 2024. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

The worldwide COVID-19 lockdown impacts on global secondary inorganic aerosols and radiative budget

Global lockdown measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) led to air pollutant emission reductions. While the COVID-19 lockdown impacts on both trace gas and total particulate pollutants have been widely investigated, secondary aerosol formation from trace gases remains unclear. To that end, we quantify the COVID-19 lockdown impacts on NOx and SO2 emissions and sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosols using multiconstituent satellite data assimilation and model simulations. We find that anthropogenic emissions over major polluted regions were reduced by 19 to 25% for NOx and 14 to 20% for SO2 during April 2020. These emission reductions led to 8 to 21% decreases in sulfate and nitrate aerosols over highly polluted areas, corresponding to >34% of the observed aerosol optical depth declines and a global aerosol radiative forcing of +0.14 watts per square meter relative to business-as-usual scenario. These results point to the critical importance of secondary aerosol pollutants in quantifying climate impacts of future mitigation measures.

Cryoballoon ablation of left atrial roof with a novel cryoballoon system

Introduction

A novel cryoballoon system (POLARx) has emerged and its efficacy regarding pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) has been already investigated. On the other hand, cryoballoon ablation of left atrial (LA) roof has been performed using a conventional cryoballoon system (Arctic Front Advance Pro [AFA-Pro]) in addition to PVI. However, cryoballoon ablation of LA roof with POLARx has not been investigated yet.

Methods

We performed cryoballoon ablation of LA roof with POLARx in 22 patients after we achieved PVI. After the cryoballoon ablation, complete conduction block at LA roof and isolation of all PVs were confirmed by creating an activation map during high right atrium pacing. If they could not be obtained with solely a cryoballoon, touch up ablation with radiofrequency ablation was permitted. The procedural data during ablation with POLARx was compared with those during ablation with AFA-Pro we had performed in a historical cohort of patients (n=46).

Results

Complete conduction block at LA roof without touch up ablation could be obtained in all the patients in POLARx group and 44 (95.7%) patients in AFA-Pro group. Total procedure time was almost similar in both groups (164.2±35.4 min for POLARx vs 180.3±35.4 min for AFA-Pro, p=0.10). During LA roof line ablation, nadir balloon temperature was significantly lower in POLARx group (right side: −53.6±4.4°C for POLARx vs −45.6±4.6°C for AFA-Pro, p<0.01, central part: −56.4±4.3°C for POLARx vs −46.0±3.7°C for AFA-Pro, p<0.01, left side: −55.1±3.5°C for POLARx vs −45.7±5.3°C for AFA-Pro, p<0.01), and balloon temperature reached −40°C earlier in POLARx (right side: 30.7±8.9 sec for POLARx vs 78.0±39.8 sec for AFA-Pro, p<0.01, central part: 30.6±9.3 sec for POLARx vs 65.9±33.3 sec for AFA-Pro, p<0.01, left side: 30.4±4.2 sec for POLARx vs 78.8±49.6 sec for AFA-Pro, p<0.01). Total freezing time required for LA roof line ablation was significantly shorter in POLARx group (589.3±163.6 sec for POLARx vs 877.5±191.7 sec for AFA-Pro, p<0.01).The scar area created after LA roof line ablation was similar in both groups (9.3±4.1 cm2 for POLARx vs 11.0±4.8 cm2 for AFA-Pro, p=0.23).

Conclusion

Complete conduction block at LA roof could be obtained after cryoballoon ablation with POLARx, in the same way as AFA-Pro. Lower nadir balloon temperature could be expected in shorter freezing time during LA roof line ablation in using POLARx compared with AFA-Pro.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

How to perform effective cryoballooon ablation of left atrial roof: considerations after experiences of more than 1000 cases

Introduction

Although pulmonary vein isolation is the cornerstone of atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation, concomitant cryoballoon ablation of left atrial (LA) roof has been expected to improve clinical outcomes after ablation. We demonstrate characteristics and efficacy of cryoballoon ablation of LA roof through our experiences from a large volume of procedures.

Methods

We had performed cryoballoon ablation of LA roof in 1036 procedures including 202 redo procedures in AF patients since June 2016. Among these procedures, we analyzed 834 patients (309 paroxysmal AF) who had undergone de novo ablation for AF. We confirmed whether the complete conduction block of LA roof line was obtained after the ablation.

Results

LA roof line block was obtained in 767 patients (92.0%) without touch up ablation with a radiofrequency catheter (Group A). LA diameter (LAD) was significantly smaller (43.6±6.6mm vs 47.4±7.5mm, p<0.01) and body mass index (BMI) was significantly lower (24.9±4.0kg/m2 vs 26.3±4.6kg/m2, p=0.01) in those in Group A compared with those without LA roof line block after cryoballoon ablation (Group B). Compared with those in Group B, cryoballoon application number of LA roof (4.1±1.2 vs 4.5±1.6, p<0.01) and mean nadir of cryoballoon temperature during cryoballoon ablation of LA roof (−44.5±5.6°C vs −40.5±7.5°C, p<0.01) were significantly lower in those in Group A. Regarding cryoballoon application number, the number of the cryoballoon application in which a cryoballoon was applied to LA roof with the guiding catheter located in a left superior pulmonary vein (LSPV) was significantly lower in patients in Group A (1.3±0.8 vs 1.6±1.0, p=0.02), and when the number was less than 2, mean nadir of cryoballoon temperature was significantly lower compared with when it was 2 or more than 2 (−44.8±5.8°C vs −42.8±5.6°C, p<0.01). Among those refer to first ablation procedures, one-year Kaplan-Meier atrial arrhythmias free rate estimates, 80.6% for those in Group A and 59.0% for those in Group B (p<0.01). Multivariate analysis identified LA roof line block without touch up ablation as one of the predictors of atrial arrhythmias recurrences. Atrial tachycardia depending on LA roof occurred after cryoballoon ablation of LA roof in 8 patients, although LA roof line block without touch up ablation could be obtained in the index ablation procedure in 6 patients among them.

Conclusion

LA roof line block could be obtained by solely cryoballoon with a reasonable success rate, especially in those with smaller LAD and lower BMI. To obtaine LA roof line block, cryoballoon ablation with the guiding catheter located in LSPV is preferable. LA roof line block without touch up ablation brings better clinical outcomes in those who underwent cryoballoon ablation of LA roof.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Global tropospheric ozone responses to reduced NO x emissions linked to the COVID-19 worldwide lockdowns

Efforts to stem the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) led to rapid, global ancillary reductions in air pollutant emissions. Here, we quantify the impact on tropospheric ozone using a multiconstituent chemical data assimilation system. Anthropogenic NO x emissions dropped by at least 15% globally and 18 to 25% regionally in April and May 2020, which decreased free tropospheric ozone by up to 5 parts per billion, consistent with independent satellite observations. The global total tropospheric ozone burden declined by 6TgO3 (∼2%) in May and June 2020, largely due to emission reductions in Asia and the Americas that were amplified by regionally high ozone production efficiencies (up to 4 TgO3/TgN). Our results show that COVID-19 mitigation left a global atmospheric imprint that altered atmospheric oxidative capacity and climate radiative forcing, providing a test of the efficacy of NO x emissions controls for co-benefiting air quality and climate.

Mapping Yearly Fine Resolution Global Surface Ozone through the Bayesian Maximum Entropy Data Fusion of Observations and Model Output for 1990-2017

Estimates of ground-level ozone concentrations are necessary to determine the human health burden of ozone. To support the Global Burden of Disease Study, we produce yearly fine resolution global surface ozone estimates from 1990 to 2017 through a data fusion of observations and models. As ozone observations are sparse in many populated regions, we use a novel combination of the M³Fusion and Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) methods. With M³Fusion, we create a multimodel composite by bias-correcting and weighting nine global atmospheric chemistry models based on their ability to predict observations (8834 sites globally) in each region and year. BME is then used to integrate observations, such that estimates match observations at each monitoring site with the observational influence decreasing smoothly across space and time until the output matches the multimodel composite. After estimating at 0.5° resolution using BME, we add fine spatial detail from an additional model, yielding estimates at 0.1° resolution. Observed ozone is predicted more accurately (R² = 0.81 at the test point, 0.63 at 0.1°, and 0.62 at 0.5°) than the multimodel mean (R² = 0.28 at 0.5°). Global ozone exposure is estimated to be increasing, driven by highly populated regions of Asia and Africa, despite decreases in the United States and Russia.

Nosocomial infection by human bocavirus and human rhinovirus among paediatric patients with respiratory risks

BACKGROUND

Nosocomial infections by respiratory viruses undetected by rapid tests are not often diagnosed. For paediatric patients with background diseases, nosocomial infection could be fatal.

AIM

To determine the relationship between developing symptoms by respiratory viruses undetectable by rapid tests and respiratory risks and to improve the management of infection control.

METHODS

Two episodes of nosocomial infection by human bocavirus (HBoV) and human rhinovirus (HRV) were retrospectively investigated in a tertiary hospital paediatric ward in Japan. Viruses were identified by polymerase chain reaction to determine infection control management. When viruses of the same species were detected from different patients, the virus homology was investigated. The relationship between respiratory risks and developing symptoms was statistically investigated.

FINDINGS

Three and four patients with respiratory risks in the HBoV and HRV outbreaks, respectively, developed respiratory symptoms. The nucleotide sequences of two patients in the HBoV outbreak and all four patients in the HRV outbreak were phylogenetically close. In both outbreaks, the patients with respiratory risks developed significantly more symptoms than those without any risk (P = 0.035 and 0.018, respectively). After the patients with respiratory infection were separated from those with respiratory risks, no additional nosocomial infection occurred.

CONCLUSION

Patients with respiratory risks easily develop respiratory symptoms and acquire severe symptoms of nosocomial infection by those viruses. In a paediatric ward, we should adopt not only standard precautions but also isolation management of the patients with respiratory symptoms, even if they have negative results in rapid tests.

Balance of Emission and Dynamical Controls on Ozone During the Korea-United States Air Quality Campaign From Multiconstituent Satellite Data Assimilation

Global multiconstituent concentration and emission fields obtained from the assimilation of the satellite retrievals of ozone, CO, NO2, HNO3, and SO2 from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2, Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere, Microwave Limb Sounder, and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)/OMI are used to understand the processes controlling air pollution during the Korea-United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) campaign. Estimated emissions in South Korea were 0.42 Tg N for NO x and 1.1 Tg CO for CO, which were 40% and 83% higher, respectively, than the a priori bottom-up inventories, and increased mean ozone concentration by up to 7.5 ± 1.6 ppbv. The observed boundary layer ozone exceeded 90 ppbv over Seoul under stagnant phases, whereas it was approximately 60 ppbv during dynamical conditions given equivalent emissions. Chemical reanalysis showed that mean ozone concentration was persistently higher over Seoul (75.10 ± 7.6 ppbv) than the broader KORUS-AQ domain (70.5 ± 9.2 ppbv) at 700 hPa. Large bias reductions (>75%) in the free tropospheric OH show that multiple-species assimilation is critical for balanced tropospheric chemistry analysis and emissions. The assimilation performance was dependent on the particular phase. While the evaluation of data assimilation fields shows an improved agreement with aircraft measurements in ozone (to less than 5 ppbv biases), CO, NO2, SO2, PAN, and OH profiles, lower tropospheric ozone analysis error was largest at stagnant conditions, whereas the model errors were mostly removed by data assimilation under dynamic weather conditions. Assimilation of new AIRS/OMI ozone profiles allowed for additional error reductions, especially under dynamic weather conditions. Our results show the important balance of dynamics and emissions both on pollution and the chemical assimilation system performance.

Ultraviolet radiation modelling using output from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative

We have derived values of the Ultraviolet Index (UVI) at solar noon using the Tropospheric Ultraviolet Model (TUV) driven by ozone, temperature and aerosol fields from climate simulations of the first phase of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). Since clouds remain one of the largest uncertainties in climate projections, we simulated only the clear-sky UVI. We compared the modelled UVI climatologies against present-day climatological values of UVI derived from both satellite data (the OMI-Aura OMUVBd product) and ground-based measurements (from the NDACC network). Depending on the region, relative differences between the UVI obtained from CCMI/TUV calculations and the ground-based measurements ranged between -5.9% and 10.6%. We then calculated the UVI evolution throughout the 21st century for the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). Compared to 1960s values, we found an average increase in the UVI in 2100 (of 2-4%) in the tropical belt (30°N-30°S). For the mid-latitudes, we observed a 1.8 to 3.4 % increase in the Southern Hemisphere for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0, and found a 2.3% decrease in RCP 8.5. Higher increases in UVI are projected in the Northern Hemisphere except for RCP 8.5. At high latitudes, ozone recovery is well identified and induces a complete return of mean UVI levels to 1960 values for RCP 8.5 in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, UVI levels in 2100 are higher by 0.5 to 5.5% for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0 and they are lower by 7.9% for RCP 8.5. We analysed the impacts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) on UVI from 1960 by comparing CCMI sensitivity simulations (1960-2100) with fixed GHGs or ODSs at their respective 1960 levels. As expected with ODS fixed at their 1960 levels, there is no large decrease in ozone levels and consequently no sudden increase in UVI levels. With fixed GHG, we observed a delayed return of ozone to 1960 values, with a corresponding pattern of change observed on UVI, and looking at the UVI difference between 2090s values and 1960s values, we found an 8 % increase in the tropical belt during the summer of each hemisphere. Finally we show that, while in the Southern Hemisphere the UVI is mainly driven by total ozone column, in the Northern Hemisphere both total ozone column and aerosol optical depth drive UVI levels, with aerosol optical depth having twice as much influence on the UVI as total ozone column does.

STAT6 and IL-10 are required for the anti-arthritic effects of Schistosoma mansoni via different mechanisms

To investigate possible roles of T helper type 2 (Th2) cytokines in the anti-arthritic effects of a blood fluke, Schistosoma mansoni (Sm), for mouse collagen-induced arthritis (CIA), wild-type (WT), signal transducer and activator of transcription 6 (STAT6) knock-out (KO) and interleukin (IL)-10 KO mice were infected with Sm. Three weeks after infection, the mice were immunized with bovine type II collagen (IIC). Arthritis severity was monitored by scoring, measurement of paw thickness and the presence of ankylosis. Serum anti-IIC IgG levels, splenic cytokine production and cytokine gene expression in the popliteal lymph nodes (PLNs) were measured and compared among WT and gene-KO mice. Consistent with our previous findings, Sm infection reduced the arthritis severity in WT mice. Splenic production of IL-17A and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α was reduced by the infection. In contrast, Sm infection markedly exacerbated CIA in STAT6 KO mice. In the KO mice, IL-17A production was increased by the infection. Conversely, Sm infection did not affect the exacerbated arthritis in IL-10 KO mice, although IL-17A production was reduced by the helminth. Our results suggest that signaling via STAT6 (presumably IL-4 and/or IL-13) and IL-10 is required for the suppression of CIA by Sm infection, but through different mechanisms. STAT6 was essential for helminth-induced reduction of IL-17A, whereas regulation of the basal arthritis severity by IL-10 was needed in order for it to be sufficiently suppressed by the helminth.

Effect of global atmospheric aerosol emission change on PM2.5-related health impacts

Background: Previous research has highlighted the importance of major atmospheric aerosols such as sulfate, through its precursor sulfur dioxide (SO2), black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC), and their effect on global climate regimes, specifically on their impact on particulate matter measuring ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5). Policy regulations have attempted to address the change in these major active aerosols and their impact on PM2.5, which would presumably have a cascading effect toward the change of health risks. Objective: This study aimed to determine how the change in the global emissions of anthropogenic aerosols affects health, particularly through the change in attributable mortality (AN) and years of life lost (YLL). This study also aimed to explore the importance of using AM/YLL in conveying air pollution health impact message. Methods: The Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate was used to estimate the gridded atmospheric PM2.5 by changing the emission of SO2, BC, and OC. Next, the emissions were utilized to estimate the associated cause-specific risks via an integrated exposure-response function, and its consequent health indicators, AM and YLL, per country. Results: OC change yielded the greatest benefit for all country income groups, particularly among low-middle-income countries. Utilizing either AM or YLL did not alter the order of benefits among upper-middle and high-income countries (UMIC/HIC); however, using either health indicator to express the order of benefit varied among low- and low-middle-income countries (LIC/LMIC). Conclusions: Global and country-specific mitigation efforts focusing on OC-related activities would yield substantial health benefits. Substantial aerosol emission reduction would greatly benefit high-emitting countries (i.e. China and India). Although no difference is found in the order of health outcome benefits in UMIC/HIC, caution is warranted in using either AM or YLL for health impact assessment in LIC/LMIC.

Estimates of the Global Burden of Ambient [Formula: see text], Ozone, and [Formula: see text] on Asthma Incidence and Emergency Room Visits

BACKGROUND

Asthma is the most prevalent chronic respiratory disease worldwide, affecting 358 million people in 2015. Ambient air pollution exacerbates asthma among populations around the world and may also contribute to new-onset asthma.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to estimate the number of asthma emergency room visits and new onset asthma cases globally attributable to fine particulate matter ([Formula: see text]), ozone, and nitrogen dioxide ([Formula: see text]) concentrations.

METHODS

We used epidemiological health impact functions combined with data describing population, baseline asthma incidence and prevalence, and pollutant concentrations. We constructed a new dataset of national and regional emergency room visit rates among people with asthma using published survey data.

RESULTS

We estimated that 9–23 million and 5–10 million annual asthma emergency room visits globally in 2015 could be attributable to ozone and [Formula: see text], respectively, representing 8–20% and 4–9% of the annual number of global visits, respectively. The range reflects the application of central risk estimates from different epidemiological meta-analyses. Anthropogenic emissions were responsible for [Formula: see text] and 73% of ozone and [Formula: see text] impacts, respectively. Remaining impacts were attributable to naturally occurring ozone precursor emissions (e.g., from vegetation, lightning) and [Formula: see text] (e.g., dust, sea salt), though several of these sources are also influenced by humans. The largest impacts were estimated in China and India.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings estimate the magnitude of the global asthma burden that could be avoided by reducing ambient air pollution. We also identified key uncertainties and data limitations to be addressed to enable refined estimation. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP3766.

Two-scale multi-model ensemble: is a hybrid ensemble of opportunity telling us more?

In this study we introduce a hybrid ensemble consisting of air quality models operating at both the global and regional scale. The work is motivated by the fact that these different types of models treat specific portions of the atmospheric spectrum with different levels of detail, and it is hypothesized that their combination can generate an ensemble that performs better than mono-scale ensembles. A detailed analysis of the hybrid ensemble is carried out in the attempt to investigate this hypothesis and determine the real benefit it produces compared to ensembles constructed from only global-scale or only regional-scale models. The study utilizes 13 regional and 7 global models participating in the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants phase 2 (HTAP2)-Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative phase 3 (AQMEII3) activity and focuses on surface ozone concentrations over Europe for the year 2010. Observations from 405 monitoring rural stations are used for the evaluation of the ensemble performance. The analysis first compares the modelled and measured power spectra of all models and then assesses the properties of the mono-scale ensembles, particularly their level of redundancy, in order to inform the process of constructing the hybrid ensemble. This study has been conducted in the attempt to identify that the improvements obtained by the hybrid ensemble relative to the mono-scale ensembles can be attributed to its hybrid nature. The improvements are visible in a slight increase of the diversity (4 % for the hourly time series, 10 % for the daily maximum time series) and a smaller improvement of the accuracy compared to diversity. Root mean square error (RMSE) improved by 13-16 % compared to G and by 2-3 % compared to R. Probability of detection (POD) and false-alarm rate (FAR) show a remarkable improvement, with a steep increase in the largest POD values and smallest values of FAR across the concentration ranges. The results show that the optimal set is constructed from an equal number of global and regional models at only 15 % of the stations. This implies that for the majority of the cases the regional-scale set of models governs the ensemble. However given the high degree of redundancy that characterizes the regional-scale models, no further improvement could be expected in the ensemble performance by adding yet more regional models to it. Therefore the improvement obtained with the hybrid set can confidently be attributed to the different nature of the global models. The study strongly reaffirms the importance of an in-depth inspection of any ensemble of opportunity in order to extract the maximum amount of information and to have full control over the data used in the construction of the ensemble.

HTAP2 multi-model estimates of premature human mortality due to intercontinental transport of air pollution and emission sectors

Ambient air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter is associated with premature mortality. As emissions from one continent influence air quality over others, changes in emissions can also influence human health on other continents. We estimate global air pollution-related premature mortality from exposure to PM_2.5 and ozone, and the avoided deaths from 20% anthropogenic emission reductions from six source regions, North America (NAM), Europe (EUR), South Asia (SAS), East Asia (EAS), Russia/Belarus/Ukraine (RBU) and the Middle East (MDE), three global emission sectors, Power and Industry (PIN), Ground Transportation (TRN) and Residential (RES) and one global domain (GLO), using an ensemble of global chemical transport model simulations coordinated by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP2), and epidemiologically-derived concentration-response functions. We build on results from previous studies of the TF-HTAP by using improved atmospheric models driven by new estimates of 2010 anthropogenic emissions (excluding methane), with more source and receptor regions, new consideration of source sector impacts, and new epidemiological mortality functions. We estimate 290,000 (95% CI: 30,000, 600,000) premature O₃-related deaths and 2.8 million (0.5 million, 4.6 million) PM_2.5-related premature deaths globally for the baseline year 2010. While 20% emission reductions from one region generally lead to more avoided deaths within the source region than outside, reducing emissions from MDE and RBU can avoid more O₃-related deaths outside of these regions than within, and reducing MDE emissions also avoids more PM_2.5-related deaths outside of MDE than within. Our findings that most avoided O₃-related deaths from emission reductions in NAM and EUR occur outside of those regions contrast with those of previous studies, while estimates of PM_2.5-related deaths from NAM, EUR, SAS and EAS emission reductions agree well. In addition, EUR, MDE and RBU have more avoided O₃-related deaths from reducing foreign emissions than from domestic reductions. For six regional emission reductions, the total avoided extra-regional mortality is estimated as 6,000 (-3,400, 15,500) deaths/year and 25,100 (8,200, 35,800) deaths/year through changes in O₃ and PM_2.5, respectively. Interregional transport of air pollutants leads to more deaths through changes in PM_2.5 than in O₃, even though O₃ is transported more on interregional scales, since PM_2.5 has a stronger influence on mortality. For NAM and EUR, our estimates of avoided mortality from regional and extra-regional emission reductions are comparable to those estimated by regional models for these same experiments. In sectoral emission reductions, TRN emissions account for the greatest fraction (26-53% of global emission reduction) of O₃-related premature deaths in most regions, in agreement with previous studies, except for EAS (58%) and RBU (38%) where PIN emissions dominate. In contrast, PIN emission reductions have the greatest fraction (38-78% of global emission reduction) of PM_2.5-related deaths in most regions, except for SAS (45%) where RES emission dominates, which differs with previous studies in which RES emissions dominate global health impacts. The spread of air pollutant concentration changes across models contributes most to the overall uncertainty in estimated avoided deaths, highlighting the uncertainty in results based on a single model. Despite uncertainties, the health benefits of reduced intercontinental air pollution transport suggest that international cooperation may be desirable to mitigate pollution transported over long distances.

Formaldehyde in the Tropical Western Pacific: Chemical sources and sinks, convective transport, and representation in CAM-Chem and the CCMI models

Formaldehyde (HCHO) directly affects the atmospheric oxidative capacity through its effects on HO_x. In remote marine environments, such as the Tropical Western Pacific (TWP), it is particularly important to understand the processes controlling the abundance of HCHO because model output from these regions is used to correct satellite retrievals of HCHO. Here, we have used observations from the CONTRAST field campaign, conducted during January and February 2014, to evaluate our understanding of the processes controlling the distribution of HCHO in the TWP as well as its representation in chemical transport/climate models. Observed HCHO mixing ratios varied from ~500 pptv near the surface to ~75 pptv in the upper troposphere. Recent convective transport of near surface HCHO and its precursors, acetaldehyde and possibly methyl hydroperoxide, increased upper tropospheric HCHO mixing ratios by ~33% (22 pptv); this air contained roughly 60% less NO than more aged air. Output from the CAM-Chem chemistry transport model (2014 meteorology) as well as nine chemistry climate models from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (free-running meteorology) are found to uniformly underestimate HCHO columns derived from in situ observations by between 4 and 50%. This underestimate of HCHO likely results from a near factor of two underestimate of NO in most models, which strongly suggests errors in NO_x emissions inventories and/or in the model chemical mechanisms. Likewise, the lack of oceanic acetaldehyde emissions and potential errors in the model acetaldehyde chemistry lead to additional underestimates in modeled HCHO of up to 75 pptv (~15%) in the lower troposphere.

Formaldehyde in the Tropical Western Pacific: Chemical sources and sinks, convective transport, and representation in CAM-Chem and the CCMI models

Formaldehyde (HCHO) directly affects the atmospheric oxidative capacity through its effects on HOx. In remote marine environments, such as the Tropical Western Pacific (TWP), it is particularly important to understand the processes controlling the abundance of HCHO because model output from these regions is used to correct satellite retrievals of HCHO. Here, we have used observations from the CONTRAST field campaign, conducted during January and February 2014, to evaluate our understanding of the processes controlling the distribution of HCHO in the TWP as well as its representation in chemical transport/climate models. Observed HCHO mixing ratios varied from ~500 pptv near the surface to ~75 pptv in the upper troposphere. Recent convective transport of near surface HCHO and its precursors, acetaldehyde and possibly methyl hydroperoxide, increased upper tropospheric HCHO mixing ratios by ~33% (22 pptv); this air contained roughly 60% less NO than more aged air. Output from the CAM-Chem chemistry transport model (2014 meteorology) as well as nine chemistry climate models from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (free-running meteorology) are found to uniformly underestimate HCHO columns derived from in situ observations by between 4 and 50%. This underestimate of HCHO likely results from a near factor of two underestimate of NO in most models, which strongly suggests errors in NOx emissions inventories and/or in the model chemical mechanisms. Likewise, the lack of oceanic acetaldehyde emissions and potential errors in the model acetaldehyde chemistry lead to additional underestimates in modeled HCHO of up to 75 pptv (~15%) in the lower troposphere.

Impact of intercontinental pollution transport on North American ozone air pollution: an HTAP phase 2 multi-model study

The recent update on the US National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) of the ground-level ozone (O₃/ can benefit from a better understanding of its source contributions in different US regions during recent years. In the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution experiment phase 1 (HTAP1), various global models were used to determine the O₃ source-receptor (SR) relationships among three continents in the Northern Hemisphere in 2001. In support of the HTAP phase 2 (HTAP2) experiment that studies more recent years and involves higher-resolution global models and regional models' participation, we conduct a number of regional-scale Sulfur Transport and dEposition Model (STEM) air quality base and sensitivity simulations over North America during May-June 2010. STEM's top and lateral chemical boundary conditions were downscaled from three global chemical transport models' (i.e., GEOS-Chem, RAQMS, and ECMWF C-IFS) base and sensitivity simulations in which the East Asian (EAS) anthropogenic emissions were reduced by 20 %. The mean differences between STEM surface O₃ sensitivities to the emission changes and its corresponding boundary condition model's are smaller than those among its boundary condition models, in terms of the regional/period-mean (<10 %) and the spatial distributions. An additional STEM simulation was performed in which the boundary conditions were downscaled from a RAQMS (Realtime Air Quality Modeling System) simulation without EAS anthropogenic emissions. The scalability of O₃ sensitivities to the size of the emission perturbation is spatially varying, and the full (i.e., based on a 100% emission reduction) source contribution obtained from linearly scaling the North American mean O₃ sensitivities to a 20% reduction in the EAS anthropogenic emissions may be underestimated by at least 10 %. The three boundary condition models' mean O₃ sensitivities to the 20% EAS emission perturbations are ~8% (May-June 2010)/~11% (2010 annual) lower than those estimated by eight global models, and the multi-model ensemble estimates are higher than the HTAP1 reported 2001 conditions. GEOS-Chem sensitivities indicate that the EAS anthropogenic NO _x emissions matter more than the other EAS O₃ precursors to the North American O₃, qualitatively consistent with previous adjoint sensitivity calculations. In addition to the analyses on large spatial-temporal scales relative to the HTAP1, we also show results on subcontinental and event scales that are more relevant to the US air quality management. The EAS pollution impacts are weaker during observed O₃ exceedances than on all days in most US regions except over some high-terrain western US rural/remote areas. Satellite O₃ (TES, JPL-IASI, and AIRS) and carbon monoxide (TES and AIRS) products, along with surface measurements and model calculations, show that during certain episodes stratospheric O₃ intrusions and the transported EAS pollution influenced O₃ in the western and the eastern US differently. Free-running (i.e., without chemical data assimilation) global models underpredicted the transported background O₃ during these episodes, posing difficulties for STEM to accurately simulate the surface O₃ and its source contribution. Although we effectively improved the modeled O₃ by incorporating satellite O₃ (OMI and MLS) and evaluated the quality of the HTAP2 emission inventory with the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute-Ozone Monitoring Instrument (KNMI-OMI) nitrogen dioxide, using observations to evaluate and improve O₃ source attribution still remains to be further explored.

The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble

Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry-climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM_2.5 at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM_2.5 relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM_2.5 in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths/year), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382,000 (121,000 to 728,000) deaths/year in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths/year in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM_2.5 concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to projected reductions in emissions, and are associated with avoided premature mortality, particularly in 2100: between -2.39 and -1.31 million deaths/year for the four RCPs. The global mortality burden of PM_2.5 is estimated to decrease from 1.70 (1.30 to 2.10) million deaths/year in 2000 to between 0.95 and 1.55 million deaths/year in 2100 for the four RCPs, due to the combined effect of decreases in PM_2.5 concentrations and changes in population and baseline mortality rates. Trends in future air pollution-related mortality vary regionally across scenarios, reflecting assumptions for economic growth and air pollution control specific to each RCP and region. Mortality estimates differ among chemistry-climate models due to differences in simulated pollutant concentrations, which is the greatest contributor to overall mortality uncertainty for most cases assessed here, supporting the use of model ensembles to characterize uncertainty. Increases in exposed population and baseline mortality rates of respiratory diseases magnify the impact on premature mortality of changes in future air pollutant concentrations and explain why the future global mortality burden of air pollution can exceed the current burden, even where air pollutant concentrations decrease.

Thy28 protects against anti-CD3-mediated thymic cell death in vivo

Apoptotic cell death plays a pivotal role in the development and/or maintenance of several tissues including thymus. Deregulated thymic cell death is associated with autoimmune diseases including experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), a prototype murine model for analysis of human multiple sclerosis. Because Thy28 expression is modulated during thymocyte development, we tested whether Thy28 affects induction of EAE as effectively as antigen-induced thymocyte deletion using Thy28 transgenic (TG) mice. Thy28 TG mice showed partial resistance to anti-CD3 monoclonal antibody (mAb)-induced thymic cell death in vivo, as assessed by annexin V-expression and loss of mitochondrial membrane potential. The resistance to anti-CD3 mAb-induced cell death in Thy28 TG mice appeared to correlate with a decreased c-Jun N-terminal kinase phosphorylation and reduced down-regulation of Bcl-xL. Moreover, thymic hyperplasia was detected in Thy28 TG mice, although thymocyte development was unaltered. Development of peripheral lymphoid tissues including spleen and lymph nodes was also unaltered. Thy28 TG spleen T cells showed an increased production of IFN-γ, but not IL-17, in response to both anti-CD3 and anti-CD28 mAbs. Finally, Thy28 TG mice displayed accelerated induction of EAE as assessed by disease incidence, clinical score, and pathology following immunization with myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein compared with control WT mice. These findings suggest that modulation of Thy28 expression plays a crucial role in the determination of thymic cell fate, which may contribute to the development of EAE through proinflammatory cytokine production.

Off-pump coronary artery bypass for a heparin-allergic patient

A 46-year-old man with no history of drug allergy developed acute myocardial infarction. Coronary angiographic findings revealed triple vessel disease. Serum hepatic enzymes were elevated due to heparin administered to control infarction, and an allergic reaction developed exclusively due to heparin. To avoid heparin use, we adopted heparin-free off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting through median sternotomy. The systemic anticoagulant agent argatroban was administered to maintain active clotting time over 200 seconds. The left internal thoracic artery was anastomosed to the left anterior descending artery, the radial artery to the diagonal branch, and the right gastroepiploic artery to the right coronary artery. Patency was confirmed by postoperative coronary angiography. No complications were noted. For patients with heparin allergy, off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting is a useful maneuver, because it can be conducted using anticoagulant agents other than heparin.

ALDH-1 expression levels predict response or resistance to preoperative chemoradiation in resectable esophageal cancer patients

PURPOSE

Operable thoracic esophageal/gastroesophageal junction carcinoma (EC) is often treated with chemoradiation and surgery but tumor responses are unpredictable and heterogeneous. We hypothesized that aldehyde dehydrogenase-1 (ALDH-1) could be associated with response.

METHODS

The labeling indices (LIs) of ALDH-1 by immunohistochemistry in untreated tumor specimens were established in EC patients who had chemoradiation and surgery. Univariate logistic regression and 3-fold cross validation were carried out for the training (67% of patients) and validation (33%) sets. Non-clinical experiments in EC cells were performed to generate complimentary data.

RESULTS

Of 167 EC patients analyzed, 40 (24%) had a pathologic complete response (pathCR) and 27 (16%) had an extremely resistant (exCRTR) cancer. The median ALDH-1 LI was 0.2 (range, 0.01-0.85). There was a significant association between pathCR and low ALDH-1 LI (p ≤ 0.001; odds-ratio [OR] = 0.432). The 3-fold cross validation led to a concordance index (C-index) of 0.798 for the fitted model. There was a significant association between exCRTR and high ALDH-1 LI (p ≤ 0.001; OR = 3.782). The 3-fold cross validation led to the C-index of 0.960 for the fitted model. In several cell lines, higher ALDH-1 LIs correlated with resistant/aggressive phenotype. Cells with induced chemotherapy resistance upregulated ALDH-1 and resistance conferring genes (SOX9 and YAP1). Sorted ALDH-1+ cells were more resistant and had an aggressive phenotype in tumor spheres than ALDH-1- cells.

CONCLUSIONS

Our clinical and non-clinical data demonstrate that ALDH-1 LIs are predictive of response to therapy and further research could lead to individualized therapeutic strategies and novel therapeutic targets for EC patients.

Results of the baseline positron emission tomography can customize therapy of localized esophageal adenocarcinoma patients who achieve a clinical complete response after chemoradiation

BACKGROUND

Patients with localized esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) who achieve a clinical complete response (clinCR) after preoperative chemoradiation (trimodality therapy; TMT) or definitive chemoradiation (bimodality therapy; BMT) live longer than those who achieve a <clinCR (Suzuki A, Xiao LC, Hayashi Y et al. Prognostic significance of baseline positron emission tomography and importance of clinical complete response in patients with esophageal or gastroesophageal junction cancer treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy. Cancer 2011; 117: 4823-4833; Cheedella NK, Suzuki A, Xiao L et al. Association between clinical complete response and pathological complete response after preoperative chemoradiation in patients with gastroesophageal cancer: analysis in a large cohort. Ann Oncol 2013; 24: 1262-1266; Ajani JA, Correa AM, Hofstetter WL et al. Clinical parameters model for predicting pathologic complete response following preoperative chemoradiation in patients with esophageal cancer. Ann Oncol 2012; 23: 2638-2642). We hypothesized that the initial standardized uptake value (iSUV) of positron emission tomography will define novel subsets of clinCR patients.

METHODS

We analyzed 323 EAC patients, from our prospective database, who achieved a clinCR. Various statistical methods were used to assess the influence of iSUV on patient outcome.

RESULTS

The median follow-up of 323 patients was 40.8 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 35.6-47.3 months]. Two hundred six (63.8%) patients had TMT and 117 (36.2%) had BMT. If iSUV was ≥6, TMT patients had a longer median OS (94.8 months; 95% CI 66.07-NA) than BMT patients (31.4 months; 95% CI 21.7-42.1; P ≤ 0.001). However, if iSUV was <6, the median OS of TMT and BMT patients was similar (P = 0.62). iSVU did not influence the pathologic complete response rate in TMT patients (P = 0.85).

CONCLUSION

clinCR patients with iSUV of <6 are identified as a new subset that fared equally well when treated with TMT or BMT. Future esophageal preservation strategy may be best suited for this newly identified subset of EAC patients.

Association between clinical complete response and pathological complete response after preoperative chemoradiation in patients with gastroesophageal cancer: analysis in a large cohort

BACKGROUND

Chemoradiation followed by surgery is the preferred treatment of localized gastroesophageal cancer (GEC). Surgery causes considerable life-altering consequences and achievement of clinical complete response (clinCR; defined as postchemoradiation [but presurgery] endoscopic biopsy negative for cancer and positron emission tomographic (PET) scan showing physiologic uptake) is an enticement to avoid/delay surgery. We examined the association between clinCR and pathologic complete response (pathCR).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Two hundred eighty-four patients with GEC underwent chemoradiation and esophagectomy. The chi-square test, Fisher exact test, t-test, Kaplan-Meier method, and log-rank test were used.

RESULTS

Of 284 patients, 218 (77%) achieved clinCR. However, only 67 (31%) of the 218 achieved pathCR. The sensitivity of clinCR for pathCR was 97.1% (67/69), but the specificity was low (29.8%; 64/215). Of the 66 patients who had less than a clinCR, only 2 (3%) had a pathCR. Thus, the rate of pathCR was significantly different in patients with clinCR than in those with less than a clinCR (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

clinCR is not highly associated with pathCR; the specificity of clinCR for pathCR is too low to be used for clinical decision making on delaying/avoiding surgery. Surgery-eligible GEC patients should be encouraged to undergo surgery following chemoradiation despite achieving a clinCR.

Global air quality and climate

Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH(4)), ozone precursors (O(3)), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O(3) precursor CH(4) would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH(4) and tropospheric O(3). Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) emissions, which increase tropospheric O(3) (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH(4) (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH(4) volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O(3) and CH(4). Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O(3) and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O(3) and SOA.