Childhood growth during recovery from acute illness in Africa and South Asia: a secondary analysis of the childhood acute illness and nutrition (CHAIN) prospective cohort

Background

Growth faltering is well-recognized during acute childhood illness and growth acceleration during convalescence, with or without nutritional therapy, may occur. However, there are limited recent data on growth after hospitalization in low- and middle-income countries.

Methods

We evaluated growth following hospitalization among children aged 2-23 months in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Between November 2016 and January 2019, children were recruited at hospital admission and classified as: not-wasted (NW), moderately-wasted (MW), severely-wasted (SW), or having nutritional oedema (NO). We describe earlier (discharge to 45-days) and later (45- to 180-days) changes in length-for-age [LAZ], weight-for-age [WAZ], mid-upper arm circumference [MUACZ], weight-for-length [WLZ] z-scores, and clinical, nutritional, and socioeconomic correlates.

Findings

We included 2472 children who survived to 180-days post-discharge: NW, 960 (39%); MW, 572 (23%); SW, 682 (28%); and NO, 258 (10%). During 180-days, LAZ decreased in NW (-0.27 [-0.36, -0.19]) and MW (-0.23 [-0.34, -0.11]). However, all groups increased WAZ (NW, 0.21 [95% CI: 0.11, 0.32]; MW, 0.57 [0.44, 0.71]; SW, 1.0 [0.88, 1.1] and NO, 1.3 [1.1, 1.5]) with greatest gains in the first 45-days. Of children underweight (<-2 WAZ) at discharge, 66% remained underweight at 180-days. Lower WAZ post-discharge was associated with age-inappropriate nutrition, adverse caregiver characteristics, small size at birth, severe or moderate anaemia, and chronic conditions, while lower LAZ was additionally associated with household-level exposures but not with chronic medical conditions.

Interpretation

Underweight and poor linear growth mostly persisted after an acute illness. Beyond short-term nutritional supplementation, improving linear growth post-discharge may require broader individual and family support.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates FoundationOPP1131320; National Institute for Health ResearchNIHR201813.

Burden of HIV and treatment outcomes among TB patients in rural Kenya: a 9-year longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Although tuberculosis (TB) patients coinfected with HIV are at risk of poor treatment outcomes, there is paucity of data on changing trends of TB/HIV co-infection and their treatment outcomes. This study aims to estimate the burden of TB/HIV co-infection over time, describe the treatment available to TB/HIV patients and estimate the effect of TB/HIV co-infection on TB treatment outcomes.

METHODS

This was a retrospective data analyses from TB surveillance in two counties in Kenya (Nyeri and Kilifi): 2012‒2020. All TB patients aged ≥ 18 years were included. The main exposure was HIV status categorised as infected, negative or unknown status. World Health Organization TB treatment outcomes were explored; cured, treatment complete, failed treatment, defaulted/lost-to-follow-up, died and transferred out. Time at risk was from date of starting TB treatment to six months later/date of the event and Cox proportion with shared frailties models were used to estimate effects of TB/HIV co-infection on TB treatment outcomes.

RESULTS

The study includes 27,285 patients, median (IQR) 37 (29‒49) years old and 64% male. 23,986 (88%) were new TB cases and 91% were started on 2RHZE/4RH anti-TB regimen. Overall, 7879 (29%, 95% 28‒30%) were HIV infected. The proportion of HIV infected patient was 32% in 2012 and declined to 24% in 2020 (trend P-value = 0.01). Uptake of ARTs (95%) and cotrimoxazole prophylaxis (99%) was high. Overall, 84% patients completed six months TB treatment, 2084 (7.6%) died, 4.3% LTFU, 0.9% treatment failure and 2.8% transferred out. HIV status was associated with lower odds of completing TB treatment: infected Vs negative (aOR 0.56 (95%CI 0.52‒0.61) and unknown vs negative (aOR 0.57 (95%CI 0.44‒0.73). Both HIV infected and unknown status were associated with higher hazard of death: (aHR 2.40 (95%CI 2.18‒2.63) and 1.93 (95%CI 1.44‒2.56)) respectively and defaulting treatment/LTFU: aHR 1.16 (95%CI 1.01‒1.32) and 1.55 (95%CI 1.02‒2.35)) respectively. HIV status had no effect on hazard of transferring out and treatment failure.

CONCLUSION

The overall burden of TB/HIV coinfection was within previous pooled estimate. Our findings support the need for systematic HIV testing as those with unknown status had similar TB treatment outcomes as the HIV infected.

Farmers' knowledge, perceptions, and practices on animal trypanosomosis and the tsetse fly vector: A cross-sectional study around Kenya's Arabuko-Sokoke Forest Reserve at the livestock-wildlife interface

Background: Animal African trypanosomosis (AAT) is a veterinary disease caused by trypanosomes transmitted cyclically by tsetse flies. AAT causes huge agricultural losses in sub-Saharan Africa. Both tsetse flies and trypanosomosis (T&T) are endemic in the study area inhabited by smallholder livestock farmers at the livestock-wildlife interface around Arabuko-Sokoke Forest Reserve (ASFR) in Kilifi County on the Kenyan coast. We assessed farmers' knowledge, perceptions and control practices towards T&T. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted during November and December 2017 to collect data from 404 randomly selected cattle-rearing households using a structured questionnaire. Descriptive statistics were used to determine farmers' knowledge, perceptions, and control practices towards T&T. Demographic factors associated with knowledge of T&T were assessed using a logistic regression model. Results: Participants consisted of 53% female, 77% married, 30% elderly (>55 years), and the majority (81%) had attained primary education or below. Most small-scale farmers (98%) knew the tsetse fly by its local name, and 76% could describe the morphology of the adult tsetse fly by size in comparison to the housefly's ( Musca domestica). Only 16% of the farmers knew tsetse flies as vectors of livestock diseases. Higher chances of adequate knowledge on T&T were associated with the participants' (i) age of 15-24 years (aOR 2.88 (95% CI 1.10-7.52), (ii) level of education including secondary (aOR 2.46 (95% CI 1.43-4.24)) and tertiary (aOR 3.80 (95% CI 1.54-9.37)), and (iii) employment status: self-employed farmers (aOR 6.54 (95% CI 4.36-9.80)). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that small-scale farmers around ASFR have limited knowledge of T&T. It is envisaged that efforts geared towards training of the farmers would bridge this knowledge gap and sharpen the perceptions and disease control tactics to contribute to the prevention and control of T&T.

Childhood mortality during and after acute illness in Africa and south Asia: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Mortality among children with acute illness in low-income and middle-income settings remains unacceptably high and the importance of post-discharge mortality is increasingly recognised. We aimed to explore the epidemiology of deaths among young children with acute illness across sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia to inform the development of interventions and improved guidelines.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study, we enrolled children aged 2-23 months with acute illness, stratified by nutritional status defined by anthropometry (ie, no wasting, moderate wasting, or severe wasting or kwashiorkor), who were admitted to one of nine hospitals in six countries across sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia between Nov 20, 2016, and Jan 31, 2019. We assisted sites to comply with national guidelines. Co-primary outcomes were mortality within 30 days of hospital admission and post-discharge mortality within 180 days of hospital discharge. A priori exposure domains, including demographic, clinical, and anthropometric characteristics at hospital admission and discharge, as well as child, caregiver, and household-level characteristics, were examined in regression and survival structural equation models.

FINDINGS

Of 3101 children (median age 11 months [IQR 7-16]), 1120 (36·1%) had no wasting, 763 (24·6%) had moderate wasting, and 1218 (39·3%) had severe wasting or kwashiorkor. Of 350 (11·3%) deaths overall, 234 (66·9%) occurred within 30 days of hospital admission and 168 (48·0%) within 180 days of hospital discharge. 90 (53·6%) post-discharge deaths occurred at home. The proportion of children who died following discharge was relatively preserved across nutritional strata. Numerically large high-risk and low-risk groups could be disaggregated for early mortality and post-discharge mortality. Structural equation models identified direct pathways to mortality and multiple socioeconomic, clinical, and nutritional domains acting indirectly through anthropometric status.

INTERPRETATION

Among diverse sites in Africa and south Asia, almost half of mortality occurs following hospital discharge. Despite being highly predictable, these deaths are not addressed in current guidelines. A fundamental shift to a child-centred, risk-based approach to inpatient and post-discharge management is needed to further reduce childhood mortality, and clinical trials of these approaches with outcomes of mortality, readmission, and cost are warranted.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A systematic review of the quality of conduct and reporting of survival analyses of tuberculosis outcomes in Africa

BACKGROUND

Survival analyses methods (SAMs) are central to analysing time-to-event outcomes. Appropriate application and reporting of such methods are important to ensure correct interpretation of the data. In this study, we systematically review the application and reporting of SAMs in studies of tuberculosis (TB) patients in Africa. It is the first review to assess the application and reporting of SAMs in this context.

METHODS

Systematic review of studies involving TB patients from Africa published between January 2010 and April 2020 in English language. Studies were eligible if they reported use of SAMs. Application and reporting of SAMs were evaluated based on seven author-defined criteria.

RESULTS

Seventy-six studies were included with patient numbers ranging from 56 to 182,890. Forty-three (57%) studies involved a statistician/epidemiologist. The number of published papers per year applying SAMs increased from two in 2010 to 18 in 2019 (P = 0.004). Sample size estimation was not reported by 67 (88%) studies. A total of 22 (29%) studies did not report summary follow-up time. The survival function was commonly presented using Kaplan-Meier survival curves (n = 51, (67%) studies) and group comparisons were performed using log-rank tests (n = 44, (58%) studies). Sixty seven (91%), 3 (4.1%) and 4 (5.4%) studies reported Cox proportional hazard, competing risk and parametric survival regression models, respectively. A total of 37 (49%) studies had hierarchical clustering, of which 28 (76%) did not adjust for the clustering in the analysis. Reporting was adequate among 4.0, 1.3 and 6.6% studies for sample size estimation, plotting of survival curves and test of survival regression underlying assumptions, respectively. Forty-five (59%), 52 (68%) and 73 (96%) studies adequately reported comparison of survival curves, follow-up time and measures of effect, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The quality of reporting survival analyses remains inadequate despite its increasing application. Because similar reporting deficiencies may be common in other diseases in low- and middle-income countries, reporting guidelines, additional training, and more capacity building are needed along with more vigilance by reviewers and journal editors.

Systemic inflammation is negatively associated with early post discharge growth following acute illness among severely malnourished children - a pilot study

Background: Rapid growth should occur among children with severe malnutrition (SM) with medical and nutritional management. Systemic inflammation (SI) is associated with death among children with SM and is negatively associated with linear growth. However, the relationship between SI and weight gain during therapeutic feeding following acute illness is unknown. We hypothesised that growth post-hospital discharge is associated with SI among children with SM. Methods: We conducted secondary analysis of data from HIV-uninfected children with SM (n=98) who survived and were not readmitted to hospital during one year of follow-up. We examined the relationship between changes in absolute deficits in weight and mid-upper-arm circumference (MUAC) from enrolment at stabilisation to 60 days and one year later, and untargeted plasma proteome, targeted cytokines/chemokines, leptin, and soluble CD14 using multivariate regularized linear regression. Results: The mean change in absolute deficit in weight and MUAC was -0.50kg (standard deviation; SD±0.69) and -1.20cm (SD±0.89), respectively, from enrolment to 60 days later. During the same period, mean weight and MUAC gain was 3.3g/kg/day (SD±2.4) and 0.22mm/day (SD±0.2), respectively. Enrolment interleukins; IL17-alpha and IL-2, and serum amyloid P were negatively associated with weight and MUAC gain during 60 days. Lipopolysaccharide binding protein and complement component 2 were negatively associated with weight gain only. Leptin was positively associated with weight gain. Soluble CD14, beta-2 microglobulin, and macrophage inflammatory protein 1 beta were negatively associated with MUAC gain only. Glutathione peroxidase 3 was positively associated with weight and MUAC gain during one year. Conclusions: Early post-hospital discharge weight and MUAC gain were rapid and comparable to children with uncomplicated SM treated in the community. Higher concentrations of SI markers were associated with less weight and MUAC gain, suggesting inflammation negatively impacts recovery from wasting. This finding warrants further research on reducing inflammation on growth among children with SM.

Mortality during and following hospital admission among school-aged children: a cohort study

Background: Far less is known about the reasons for hospitalization or mortality during and after hospitalization among school-aged children than among under-fives in low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to describe common types of illness causing hospitalisation; inpatient mortality and post-discharge mortality among school-age children at Kilifi County Hospital (KCH), Kenya.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study of children 5−12 years old admitted at KCH, 2007 to 2016, and resident within the Kilifi Health Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS). Children discharged alive were followed up for one year by quarterly census. Outcomes were inpatient and one-year post-discharge mortality.

Results: We included 3,907 admissions among 3,196 children with a median age of 7 years 8 months (IQR 74−116 months). Severe anaemia (792, 20%), malaria (749, 19%), sickle cell disease (408, 10%), trauma (408, 10%), and severe pneumonia (340, 8.7%) were the commonest reasons for admission. Comorbidities included 623 (16%) with severe wasting, 386 (10%) with severe stunting, 90 (2.3%) with oedematous malnutrition and 194 (5.0%) with HIV infection. 132 (3.4%) children died during hospitalisation. Inpatient death was associated with signs of disease severity, age, bacteraemia, HIV infection and severe stunting. After discharge, 89/2,997 (3.0%) children died within one year during 2,853 child-years observed (31.2 deaths [95%CI, 25.3−38.4] per 1,000 child-years). 63/89 (71%) of post-discharge deaths occurred within three months and 45% of deaths occurred outside hospital. Post-discharge mortality was positively associated with weak pulse, tachypnoea, severe anaemia, HIV infection and severe wasting and negatively associated with malaria. 

Conclusions: Reasons for admissions are markedly different from those reported in under-fives. There was significant post-discharge mortality, suggesting hospitalisation is a marker of risk in this population. Our findings inform guideline development to include risk stratification, targeted post-discharge care and facilitate access to healthcare to improve survival in the early months post-discharge in school-aged children.

Mortality during and following hospital admission among school-aged children: a cohort study

Background: Far less is known about the reasons for hospitalization or mortality during and after hospitalization among school-aged children than among under-fives in low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to describe common types of illness causing hospitalisation; inpatient mortality and post-discharge mortality among school-age children at Kilifi County Hospital (KCH), Kenya. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of children 5-12 years old admitted at KCH, 2007 to 2016, and resident within the Kilifi Health Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS). Children discharged alive were followed up for one year by quarterly census. Outcomes were inpatient and one-year post-discharge mortality. Results: We included 3,907 admissions among 3,196 children with a median age of 7 years 8 months (IQR 74-116 months). Severe anaemia (792, 20%), malaria (749, 19%), sickle cell disease (408, 10%), trauma (408, 10%), and severe pneumonia (340, 8.7%) were the commonest reasons for admission. Comorbidities included 623 (16%) with severe wasting, 386 (10%) with severe stunting, 90 (2.3%) with oedematous malnutrition and 194 (5.0%) with HIV infection. 132 (3.4%) children died during hospitalisation. Inpatient death was associated with signs of disease severity, age, bacteraemia, HIV infection and severe stunting. After discharge, 89/2,997 (3.0%) children died within one year during 2,853 child-years observed (31.2 deaths [95%CI, 25.3-38.4] per 1,000 child-years). 63/89 (71%) of post-discharge deaths occurred within three months and 45% of deaths occurred outside hospital. Post-discharge mortality was positively associated with weak pulse, tachypnoea, severe anaemia, HIV infection and severe wasting and negatively associated with malaria.  Conclusions: Reasons for admissions are markedly different from those reported in under-fives. There was significant post-discharge mortality, suggesting hospitalisation is a marker of risk in this population. Our findings inform guideline development to include risk stratification, targeted post-discharge care and facilitate access to healthcare to improve survival in the early months post-discharge in school-aged children.

Plasma calprotectin as a biomarker of mortality at antiretroviral treatment initiation in advanced HIV - pilot study

Background: In advanced HIV, significant mortality occurs soon after starting antiretroviral treatment (ART) in low- and middle-incomes countries. Calprotectin is a biomarker of innate response to infection and inflammatory conditions. We examined the association between plasma calprotectin collected before ART treatment and mortality among individuals with advanced HIV.   Methods: We conducted a pilot case-cohort study among HIV infected adults and adolescents over 13 years old with CD4+ <100/mm3 at ART initiation at two Kenyan sites. Participants received three factorial randomised interventions in addition to ART within the REALITY trial (ISRCTN43622374). Calprotectin collected at baseline (before ART) and after 4 weeks of treatment was measured in archived plasma of those who died within 24 weeks (cases) and randomly selected participants who survived (non-cases). Association with mortality was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models with inverse sampling probability weights and adjusted for age, sex, site, BMI, viral load, randomised treatments, and clustered by CD4+ count (0-24, 25-49, and 50-99 cells/mm3).   Results: Baseline median (IQR) plasma calprotectin was 6.82 (2.65-12.5) µg/ml in cases (n=39) and 5.01 (1.92-11.5) µg/ml in non-cases (n=58). Baseline calprotectin was associated with age, neutrophil count and the presence of cough, but not other measured indicators of infection. In adjusted multivariable models, baseline calprotectin was associated with subsequent mortality: HR 1.64 (95% CI 1.11 - 2.42) and HR 2.77 (95% CI 1.58 - 4.88) for deaths during the first twenty-four and four weeks respectively. Calprotectin levels fell between baseline and 4 weeks among both cases and non-cases irrespective of randomised interventions.   Conclusions: Among individuals with advanced HIV starting ART in Kenya, plasma calprotectin may have potential as a biomarker of early mortality. Validation in larger studies, comparison with other biomarkers and investigation of the sources of infection and inflammation are warranted.

Systemic inflammation is negatively associated with early post discharge growth following acute illness among severely malnourished children - a pilot study

Background: Rapid growth should occur among children with severe malnutrition (SM) when medically and nutritionally treated. Systemic inflammation (SI) is associated with death among children with SM and is negatively associated with linear growth. However, the relationship between SI and weight gain during therapeutic feeding following acute illness is unknown. We hypothesised that growth in the first 60 days post-hospital discharge is associated with SI among children with SM. Methods: We conducted secondary analysis of data from HIV-uninfected children with SM (n=98) who survived and were not readmitted to hospital during one year of follow up. We examined the relationship between changes in absolute deficits in weight and mid-upper-arm circumference (MUAC) from enrolment at stabilisation to 60 days later and untargeted plasma proteome, targeted cytokines/chemokines, leptin, and soluble CD14 (sCD14) using multivariate regularized linear regression. Results: The mean change in absolute deficit in weight and MUAC was -0.50kg (standard deviation; SD±0.69) and -1.20cm (SD±0.89), respectively, from enrolment to 60 days later. During the same period, mean weight and MUAC gain was 3.3g/kg/day (SD±2.4) and 0.22mm/day (SD±0.2), respectively. Enrolment inflammatory cytokines interleukin 17 alpha (IL17α), interleukin 2 (IL2), and serum amyloid P (SAP) were negatively associated with weight and MUAC gain. Lipopolysaccharide binding protein (LBP) and complement component 2 were negatively associated with weight gain only. Leptin was positively associated with weight gain. sCD14, beta-2 microglobulin (β2M), and macrophage inflammatory protein 1 beta (MIP1β) were negatively associated with MUAC gain only. Conclusions: Early post-hospital discharge weight and MUAC gain were rapid and comparable to children with uncomplicated SM treated with similar diet in the community. Higher concentrations of SI markers were associated with less weight and MUAC gain, suggesting inflammation negatively impacts recovery from wasting. This finding warrants further research on the role of inflammation on growth among children with SM.

Plasma calprotectin as a biomarker of mortality at antiretroviral treatment initiation in advanced HIV - pilot study

Background: In advanced HIV, significant mortality occurs soon after starting antiretroviral treatment (ART) in low- and middle-incomes countries. Calprotectin is a biomarker of innate response to infection and inflammatory conditions. We examined the association between plasma calprotectin at initiation of ART and mortality among individuals with advanced HIV. Methods: We conducted a pilot case-cohort study among HIV infected adults and children over 5 years old with CD4 + <100/mm 3 at ART initiation at two Kenyan sites. Participants received three factorial randomised interventions in addition to ART within the REALITY trial ( ISRCTN43622374). Calprotectin was measured by ELISA in archived plasma of those who died within 24 weeks (cases) and randomly selected participants who survived for 48 weeks (non-cases) for whom samples were available. Factors associated with baseline plasma calprotectin were investigated using linear regression. To test association with mortality, Cox proportional hazards models with inverse sampling probability weights and adjusted for age, sex, site, BMI, viral load, randomised treatments, and clustered by CD4 count were fitted. Results: Baseline median (IQR) plasma calprotectin was 6.82 (2.65-12.5) µg/ml in cases (n=39) and 5.01 (1.92-11.5) µg/ml in non-cases (n=58). Baseline calprotectin was associated with age, neutrophil count and the presence of cough, but not other measured indicators of infection. In adjusted multivariable models, baseline calprotectin was associated with subsequent mortality: HR 1.64 (95% CI 1.11 - 2.42) and HR 2.77 (95% CI 1.58 - 4.88) for deaths during the first twenty-four and four weeks respectively. Calprotectin levels fell between baseline and 4 weeks among both cases and non-cases irrespective of randomised interventions. Conclusion: Among individuals with advanced HIV starting ART in Kenya, plasma calprotectin may have potential as a biomarker of early mortality. Validation in larger studies, comparison with other biomarkers and investigation of the sources of infection and inflammation are warranted.

Phenotype is sustained during hospital readmissions following treatment for complicated severe malnutrition among Kenyan children: A retrospective cohort study

Hospital readmission is common among children with complicated severe acute malnutrition (cSAM) but not well‐characterised. Two distinct cSAM phenotypes, marasmus and kwashiorkor, exist, but their pathophysiology and whether the same phenotype persists at relapse are unclear. We aimed to test the association between cSAM phenotype at index admission and readmission following recovery. We performed secondary data analysis from a multicentre randomised trial in Kenya with 1‐year active follow‐up. The main outcome was cSAM phenotype upon hospital readmission. Among 1,704 HIV‐negative children with cSAM discharged in the trial, 177 children contributed a total of 246 readmissions with cSAM. cSAM readmission was associated with age<12 months (p = .005), but not site, sex, season, nor cSAM phenotype. Of these, 42 children contributed 44 readmissions with cSAM that occurred after a monthly visit when SAM was confirmed absent (cSAM relapse). cSAM phenotype was sustained during cSAM relapse. The adjusted odds ratio for presenting with kwashiorkor during readmission after kwashiorkor at index admission was 39.3 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) [2.69, 1,326]; p = .01); and for presenting with marasmus during readmission after kwashiorkor at index admission was 0.02 (95% CI [0.001, 0.037]; p = .01). To validate this finding, we examined readmissions to Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya occurring at least 2 months after an admission with cSAM. Among 2,412 children with cSAM discharged alive, there were 206 readmissions with cSAM. Their phenotype at readmission was significantly influenced by their phenotype at index admission (p < .001). This is the first report describing the phenotype and rate of cSAM recurrence.

Mortality during treatment for tuberculosis; a review of surveillance data in a rural county in Kenya

Background

Globally in 2016, 1.7 million people died of Tuberculosis (TB). This study aimed to estimate all-cause mortality rate, identify features associated with mortality and describe trend in mortality rate from treatment initiation.

Method

A 5-year (2012–2016) retrospective analysis of electronic TB surveillance data from Kilifi County, Kenya. The outcome was all-cause mortality within 180 days after starting TB treatment. The risk factors examined were demographic and clinical features at the time of starting anti-TB treatment. We performed survival analysis with time at risk defined from day of starting TB treatment to time of death, lost-to-follow-up or completing treatment. To account for ‘lost-to-follow-up’ we used competing risk analysis method to examine risk factors for all-cause mortality.

Results

10,717 patients receiving TB treatment, median (IQR) age 33 (24–45) years were analyzed; 3,163 (30%) were HIV infected. Overall, 585 (5.5%) patients died; mortality rate of 12.2 (95% CI 11.3–13.3) deaths per 100 person-years (PY). Mortality rate increased from 7.8 (95% CI 6.4–9.5) in 2012 to 17.7 (95% CI 14.9–21.1) in 2016 per 100PY (P_trend<0.0001). 449/585 (77%) of the deaths occurred within the first three months after starting TB treatment. The median time to death (IQR) declined from 87 (40–100) days in 2012 to 46 (18–83) days in 2016 (P_trend = 0·04). Mortality rate per 100PY was 7.3 (95% CI 6.5–7.8) and 23.1 (95% CI 20.8–25.7) among HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected patients respectively. Age, being a female, extrapulmonary TB, being undernourished, HIV infected and year of diagnosis were significantly associated with mortality.

Conclusions

We found most deaths occurred within three months and an increasing mortality rate during the time under review among patients on TB treatment. Our results therefore warrant further investigation to explore host, disease or health system factors that may explain this trend.

Linear growth following complicated severe malnutrition: 1-year follow-up cohort of Kenyan children

BACKGROUND

Stunting is the most common manifestation of childhood undernutrition worldwide. Children presenting with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) are often also severely stunted. We evaluated linear growth and its determinants after medically complicated SAM.

METHODS

We performed secondary analysis of clinical trial data (NCT00934492) from HIV-uninfected Kenyan children aged 2-59 months hospitalised with SAM. Outcome was change in height/length-for-age z-score (HAZ) between enrolment and 12 months later. Exposures were demographic, clinical, anthropometric characteristics and illness episodes during follow-up.

RESULTS

Among 1169 children with HAZ values at month 12 (66% of those in original trial), median (IQR) age 11 (7-17) months and mean (SD) HAZ -2.87 (1.6) at enrolment, there was no change in mean HAZ between enrolment and month 12: -0.006Z (95% CI -0.07 to 0.05Z). While 262 (23%) children experienced minimal HAZ change (within ±0.25 HAZ), 472 (40%) lost >0.25 and 435 (37%) gained >0.25 HAZ. After adjusting for regression to the mean, inpatient or outpatient episodes of diarrhoea and inpatient severe pneumonia during follow-up were associated with HAZ loss. Premature birth and not being cared by the biological parent were associated with HAZ gain. Increases in mid-upper arm circumference and weight-for-age were associated with HAZ gain and protected against HAZ loss. Increase in weight-for-height was not associated with HAZ gain but protected against HAZ loss. No threshold of weight gain preceding linear catch-up growth was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Interventions to improve dietary quality and prevent illness over a longer period may provide opportunities to improve linear growth.

Changes in susceptibility to life-threatening infections after treatment for complicated severe malnutrition in Kenya

Background

Goals of treating childhood severe acute malnutrition (SAM), in addition to anthropometric recovery and preventing short-term mortality, include reducing the risks of subsequent serious infections. How quickly and how much the risk of serious illness changes during rehabilitation are unknown but could inform improving the design and scope of interventions.

Objective

The aim of this study was to investigate changes in the risk of life-threatening events (LTEs) in relation to anthropometric recovery from SAM.

Design

This was a secondary analysis of a clinical trial including 1778 HIV-uninfected Kenyan children aged 2-59 mo with complicated SAM, enrolled after the inpatient stabilization phase of treatment, and followed for 12 mo. The main outcome was LTEs, defined as infections requiring rehospitalization or causing death. We examined anthropometric variables measured at months 1, 3, and 6 after enrollment in relation to LTEs occurring during the 6 mo after each of these time points.

Results

Over 12 mo, there were 823 LTEs (257 fatal), predominantly severe pneumonia and diarrhea. At months 1, 3, and 6, 557 (34%), 764 (49%), and 842 (56%) children had a weight-for-height or -length z score (WHZ) ≥-2, respectively, which, compared with a WHZ <-3, was associated with lower risks of subsequent LTEs [adjusted HRs (95% CIs): 0.50 (0.40, 0.64), 0.30 (0.23, 0.39), and 0.23 (0.16, 0.32), respectively]. However, children with a WHZ ≥-2 at 1, 3, and 6 mo still had 39 (95% CI: 32, 47), 26 (95% CI: 22, 32), and 15 (95% CI: 12, 20) LTEs/100 child-years of observation during the following 6 mo. WHZ at study enrollment predicted subsequent WHZ but not the risk of LTEs. Changes in height-for-age z score did not predict LTEs.

Conclusions

Anthropometric response was associated with a rapid and substantial reduction in risk of LTEs. However, reduction in susceptibility lagged behind anthropometric improvement. Disease events, together with anthropometric assessment, may provide a clearer picture of the effectiveness of interventions. Robust protocols for detecting and treating poor anthropometric recovery and addressing broader vulnerabilities that complicated SAM indicates may save lives. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00934492.

The impact of rickets on growth and morbidity during recovery among children with complicated severe acute malnutrition in Kenya: A cohort study

The effects of rickets on children recovery from severe acute malnutrition (SAM) are unknown. Rickets may affect both growth and susceptibility to infectious diseases. We investigated the associations of clinically diagnosed rickets with life‐threatening events and anthropometric recovery during 1 year following inpatient treatment for complicated SAM. This was a secondary analysis of clinical trial data among non‐human immunodeficiency virus‐infected Kenyan children with complicated SAM (2–59 months) followed for 1 year posthospital discharge (ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT00934492). The outcomes were mortality, hospital readmissions, and growth during 12 months. The main exposure was clinically diagnosed rickets at baseline. Of 1,778 children recruited, 230 (12.9%, 95% CI [11.4, 14 .6]) had clinical signs of rickets at baseline. Enrolment at an urban site, height‐for‐age and head circumference‐for‐age z scores were associated with rickets. Rickets at study enrolment was associated with increased mortality (adjusted Hazard Ratio [aHR] 1.61, 95% CI [1.14, 2.27]), any readmission (aHR 1.37, 95% CI [1.09, 1.72]), readmission for severe pneumonia (aHR 1.37, 95% CI [1.05, 1.79]), but not readmission with diarrhoea (aHR 1.05, 95% CI [0.73, 1.51]). Rickets was associated with increased height gain (centimetres), adjusted regression coefficient 0.19 (95% CI [0.10, 0.28]), but not changes in head circumference, mid‐upper arm circumference, or weight. Rickets was common among children with SAM at urban sites and associated with increased risks of severe pneumonia and death. Increased height gain may have resulted from vitamin D and calcium treatment. Future work should explore possibility of other concurrent micronutrient deficiencies and optimal treatment of rickets in this high‐risk population.

Mortality after Inpatient Treatment for Severe Pneumonia in Children: a Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Although pneumonia is a leading cause of inpatient mortality, deaths may also occur after discharge from hospital. However, prior studies have been small, in selected groups or did not fully evaluate risk factors, particularly malnutrition and HIV. We determined 1-year post-discharge mortality and risk factors among children diagnosed with severe pneumonia.

METHODS

A cohort study of children aged 1-59 months admitted to Kilifi County Hospital with severe pneumonia (2007-12). The primary outcome was death <1 year after discharge, determined through Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS) quarterly census rounds.

RESULTS

Of 4184 children (median age 9 months) admitted with severe pneumonia, 1041 (25%) had severe acute malnutrition (SAM), 267 (6.4%) had a positive HIV antibody test, and 364 (8.7%) died in hospital. After discharge, 2279 KHDSS-resident children were followed up; 70 (3.1%) died during 2163 child-years: 32 (95% confidence interval (CI) 26, 41) deaths per 1000 child years. Post-discharge mortality was greater after admission for severe pneumonia than for other diagnoses, hazard ratio 2.5 (95% CI 1.2, 5.3). Malnutrition, HIV status, age and prolonged hospitalisation, but not signs of pneumonia severity, were associated with post-discharge mortality. Fifty-two per cent (95% CI 37%, 63%) of post-discharge deaths were attributable to low mid-upper arm circumference and 11% (95% CI 3.3%, 18%) to a positive HIV test.

CONCLUSIONS

Admission with severe pneumonia is an important marker of vulnerability. Risk stratification and better understanding of the mechanisms underlying post-discharge mortality, especially for undernourished children, are needed to reduce mortality after treatment for pneumonia.

Why mothers still deliver at home: understanding factors associated with home deliveries and cultural practices in rural coastal Kenya, a cross-section study

Background

Maternal mortality has declined by 43 % globally between 1990 and 2013, a reduction that was insufficient to achieve the 75 % reduction target by millennium development goal (MDG) five. Kenya recorded a decline of 18 % from 490 deaths in 1990 to 400 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2013. Delivering at home, is associated with higher risk of maternal deaths, therefore reducing number of home deliveries is important to improve maternal health. In this study, we aimed at establishing the proportion of home deliveries and evaluating factors associated with home deliveries in Kilifi County.

Methods

The study was conducted among mothers seeking immunization services in selected health facilities within Kilifi County using Semi-structured questionnaires administered through face to face oral interviews to collect both quantitative and qualitative data. Six Focus Group Discussion (FGD) and ten in-depth interviews (IDIs) were used to collect qualitative data. A random sample of 379 mothers was sufficient to answer the study question. Log-binomial regression model was used to identify factors associated with childbirth at home.

Results

A total of 103 (26 %) mothers delivered at home. From the univariate analysis, both mother and the partners old age, being in a polygamy marriage, being a mother of at least two children and staying ≥5 Kms radius from the nearest health facility were associated with higher risk of delivering at home (crude P < 0.05). Both mother and partner’s higher education level were associated with a protective effect on the risk of delivering at home (RR < 1.0 and P < 0.05). In multivariate regression model, only long distance (≥10Kms) from the nearest health facility was associated with higher risk of delivering at home (adjusted RR 3.86, 95 % CI 2.13 to 7.02).

Conclusion

From this population, the major reason why mothers still deliver at home is the long distance from nearest health facility. To reduce maternal mortality, access to health facility by pregnant mothers need to be improved.

Experience of using an open source clinical trials data management software system in Kenya

BACKGROUND

Clinical trials data management (CTDM) remains one of the many challenges in running state of the art trials in resource-poor settings since most trials do not allocate, or have available, sufficient resources for CTDM and because of poor internet connectivity. Open-source software like OpenClinica could be a solution in such scenarios.

FINDINGS

In 2007, the KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP) adopted OpenClinica (OC) community edition, an open-source software system and we share our experience and lessons learnt since its adoption. We have used OC in three different modes; direct remote data entry from sites through Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) modems, a centralized data centre approach where all data from paper records were entered at a central location and an off-line approach where data entry was done from a copy of database hosted on a field-site server laptop, then data uploaded to a centralized server later. We have used OC in eleven trials/studies with a cumulative number of participants in excess of 6000. These include large and complex trials, with multiple sites recruiting in different regions of East Africa. In the process, we have developed substantial local capacity through hands-on training and mentorship, which we have now begun to share with other institutions in the region.

CONCLUSIONS

Our experience demonstrates that an open source data management system to manage trials' data can be utilized to international industry standards in resource-poor countries.