Rejection in Liver Transplantation Recipients

Rejection following liver transplantation continues to impact transplant recipients although rates have decreased over time with advances in immunosuppression management. The diagnosis of rejection remains challenging with liver biopsy remaining the reference standard for diagnosis. Proper classification of rejection type and severity is imperative as this guides management and ultimately graft preservation. Future areas of promise include non-invasive testing for detection of rejection to reduce the morbidity associated with invasive testing and further advances in immunosuppression management to reduce toxicities associated with immunosuppression while minimizing rejection related morbidity.

Otitis media at 6-monthly assessments of Australian First Nations children between ages 12-36 months: Findings from two randomised controlled trials of combined pneumococcal conjugate vaccines

OBJECTIVES

In remote communities of northern Australia, First Nations children with hearing loss are disproportionately at risk of poor school readiness and performance compared to their peers with no hearing loss. The aim of this trial is to prevent early childhood persisting otitis media (OM), associated hearing loss and developmental delay. To achieve this, we designed a mixed pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) schedule that could maximise immunogenicity and thereby prevent bacterial otitis media (OM) and a trajectory of educational and social disadvantage.

METHODS

In two sequential parallel, open-label, randomised controlled trials, eligible infants were first allocated 1:1:1 to standard or mixed PCV primary schedules at age 28-38 days, then at age 12 months to a booster dose (1:1) of 13-valent PCV, PCV13 (Prevenar13®, +P), or 10-valent pneumococcal non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugated vaccine, PHiD-CV10 (Synflorix®, +S). Here we report findings of standardised ear assessments conducted six-monthly from age 12-36 months, by booster dose.

RESULTS

From March 2013 to September 2018, 261 children were allocated to booster + P (n = 131) or + S (n = 130). There were no significant differences in prevalence of any OM diagnosis by booster dose or when stratified by primary schedule. We found high, almost identical prevalence of OM in both boost groups at each age (for example 88% of 129 and 91% of 128 children seen, respectively, at primary endpoint age 18 months, difference -3% [95% Confidence Interval -11, 5]). At each age prevalence of bilateral OM was 52%-78%, and tympanic membrane perforation was 10%-18%.

CONCLUSION

Despite optimal pneumococcal immunisation, the high prevalence of OM persists throughout early childhood. Novel approaches to OM prevention are needed, along with improved early identification strategies and evaluation of expanded valency PCVs.

Umbilical Cord Milking Versus Delayed Cord Clamping in Infants 28 to 32 Weeks: A Randomized Trial

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether rate of severe intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) or death among preterm infants receiving placental transfusion with UCM is noninferior to delayed cord clamping (DCC).

METHODS

Noninferiority randomized controlled trial comparing UCM versus DCC in preterm infants born 28 to 32 weeks recruited between June 2017 through September 2022 from 19 university and private medical centers in 4 countries. The primary outcome was Grade III/IV IVH or death evaluated at a 1% noninferiority margin.

RESULTS

Among 1019 infants (UCM n = 511 and DCC n = 508), all completed the trial from birth through initial hospitalization (mean gestational age 31 weeks, 44% female). For the primary outcome, 7 of 511 (1.4%) infants randomized to UCM developed severe IVH or died compared to 7 of 508 (1.4%) infants randomized to DCC (rate difference 0.01%, 95% confidence interval: (-1.4% to 1.4%), P = .99).

CONCLUSIONS

In this randomized controlled trial of UCM versus DCC among preterm infants born between 28 and 32 weeks' gestation, there was no difference in the rates of severe IVH or death. UCM may be a safe alternative to DCC in premature infants born at 28 to 32 weeks who require resuscitation.

Cessation of berry growth coincides with leaf complete stomatal closure at pre-veraison for grapevine (Vitis vinifera) subjected to progressive drought stress

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Drought events have devasting impacts on grape berry production. The aim of this study was to investigate berry growth in the context of leaf stomatal closure under progressive drought stress.

METHODS

Potted grapevine plants (varieties 'Syrah' and 'Cabernet Sauvignon') were evaluated at pre-verasion (30-45 d after anthesis, DAA) and post-veraison (90-107 DAA). Berry diameter, berry absolute growth rate (AGR), leaf stomatal conductance (Gs) at midday, plant water potential at predawn and midday (ΨPD and ΨMD, respectively), and soil relative water content were measured repeatedly. The ΨPD-threshold of 90 % loss in stomatal conductance (Gs10, i.e. complete stomatal closure) was determined. Data were related to plant dehydration phases I, II and III with corresponding boundaries Θ1 and Θ2, using the water potential curve method.

KEY RESULTS

At pre-veraison, berry AGR declined together with leaf Gs in response to soil drying in both varieties. Berry AGR transitioned from positive to negative (shrinkage) values when leaf Gs approached zero. The Gs10-threshold was -0.81 MPa in 'Syrah' and -0.74 MPa in 'Cabernet Sauvignon' and was linked to boundary Θ1. At post-veraison, berry AGR was negligible and negative AGR values were not intensified by increasing drought stress in either variety.

CONCLUSION

Leaf complete stomatal closure under progressive drought stress coincides with cessation of berry growth followed by shrinkage at pre-veraison (growth stage 1).

Association of hypertension severity and control with risk of incident atrial fibrillation: The REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study

BACKGROUND

The association of hypertension (HTN) severity and control with the risk of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) is unclear.

HYPOTHESIS

Increased HTN severity and poorer blood pressure control would be associated with an increased risk of incident AF.

METHODS

This analysis included 9485 participants (mean age 63 ± 8 years; 56% women; 35% Black). Participants were stratified into six mutually exclusive groups at baseline-normotension (n = 1629), prehypertension (n = 704), controlled HTN (n = 2224), uncontrolled HTN (n = 4123), controlled apparent treatment-resistant hypertension (aTRH) (n = 88), and uncontrolled aTRH (n = 717). Incident AF was ascertained at the follow-up visit, defined by either electrocardiogram or self-reported medical history of a physician diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression analyses adjusted for demographic and clinical variables.

RESULTS

Over an average of 9.3 years later, 868 incident AF cases were detected. Compared to those with normotension, incident AF risk was highest for those with aTRH (controlled aTRH: odds ratio (OR) 2.95; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.60, 5.43, & uncontrolled aTRH: OR 2.47; 95% CI 1.76, 3.48). The increase in AF risk was smaller for those on no more than three antihypertensive agents regardless of their blood pressure control (controlled OR 1.72; 95% CI 1.30, 2.29 and uncontrolled OR 1.56; 95% CI 1.14, 2.13).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of developing AF is increased in all individuals with HTN. Risk is highest in those aTRH regardless of blood pressure control. A more aggressive approach that focuses on lifestyle and pharmacologic measures to either prevent HTN or better control HTN during earlier stages may be particularly beneficial in reducing related AF risk.

Weight-based vs fixed dosing of darbepoetin alfa for anemia following kidney transplantation

PURPOSE

Post-transplantation anemia (PTA) is common in kidney transplant recipients, with patients frequently treated with erythropoietin-stimulating agents such as darbepoetin alfa. The optimal dosing for darbepoetin alfa remains controversial.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study involved kidney transplant recipients who received darbepoetin alfa at 2 clinics. Patients were stratified into 2 groups: those who received a fixed dose of 200 μg and those who received a weight-based dose of 0.45 μg/kg. The dosing interval varied depending on clinical response, clinic visit timing, and frequency allowed by insurance. The primary outcome was achieving a hemoglobin concentration of at least 10 g/dL without blood transfusion by 12 weeks after darbepoetin alfa initiation.

RESULTS

Of the 110 patients in the study, 45% received weight-based dosing and 55% received fixed dosing. Darbepoetin alfa was initiated significantly earlier after transplantation in the fixed-dose group (median of 14 vs 20 days; P = 0.003). The weight-based group received more doses of darbepoetin alfa (median of 4 vs 2 doses; P = 0.002) and had a significantly lower cumulative exposure to darbepoetin alfa (125 vs 590 μg; P < 0.001). The median time between doses was 9 days (interquartile range, 7-14 days) in the weight-based group and 12 days (7-32 days) in the fixed-dose group (P = 0.04). Patients in the weight-based group more frequently achieved the primary outcome (67.3% vs 47.5%; P = 0.059). There was no significant difference in secondary or safety outcomes between the groups.

CONCLUSION

Weight-based and fixed dosing approaches for darbepoetin alfa were not different in the achievement of a hemoglobin concentration of at least 10 g/dL without blood transfusion at 12 weeks after darbepoetin alfa initiation, with significantly lower cumulative darbepoetin alfa utilization in the weight-based group. Weight-based dosing of darbepoetin alfa in PTA appears to be safe and effective, with the potential for significant patient and health-system cost savings.

A real-world 2-year prospective study of medication tapering in patients with well-controlled rheumatoid arthritis within the rheumatoid arthritis medication tapering (RHEUMTAP) cohort

OBJECTIVES

This study had two aims: (i) to investigate outcomes of medication tapering in stable RA patients on biologic or targeted synthetic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (bDMARDs/tsDMARDs) and conventional synthetic DMARDs (csDMARDs) in a real-world prospective cohort; and (ii) to evaluate possible predictors of flare with medication taper.

METHODS

A prospective cohort of patients with RA in sustained remission or low disease activity while on stable bDMARD/tsDMARDs +/- csDMARDs for at least 6 months underwent medication tapering/stopping and was tracked for 2 years. Patients were evaluated for flares in four groups: no taper, only bDMARD/tsDMARD taper, only csDMARD taper and both csDMARD and bDMARD/tsDMARD taper.

RESULTS

The RHEUMTAP cohort included 131 patients that met eligibility criteria, of which 52 patients underwent a medication taper. Flare was experienced by 15 patients in the taper and two in the no-taper groups. Patients undergoing any taper/stop overall were 10 times more likely to experience a flare compared with those not tapered (HR 10.43, 95% CI 2.98-36.53, P = 0.0002). The group tapering bDMARD/tsDMARD had 31 times higher risk of flare (HR 31.43, 95% CI 6.35-155.55, P <0.0001) than the no-taper group. Patients tapering both csDMARDs and bDMARD/tsDMARDs had 18 times higher risk of flare than the no-taper group (HR 18.45, 95% CI 2.55-133.37, P = 0.0039). The only csDMARD taper group had a 91% lower risk of flare than the bDMARD/tsDMARD taper group (HR 0.09, 95% CI 0.01-0.69, P = 0.0213).

CONCLUSION

In our real-world prospective RHEUMTAP cohort study on the outcomes of different medication tapering groups in well-controlled RA, patients who tapered or stopped bDMARDs/tsDMARDs with or without background therapy were more likely to experience a flare than patients that did not taper any medications and those that tapered only csDMARDs.

Promoting transportation safety in adolescence: the drivingly randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The impact of young drivers' motor vehicle crashes (MVC) is substantial, with young drivers constituting only 14% of the US population, but contributing to 30% of all fatal and nonfatal injuries due to MVCs and 35% ($25 billion) of the all medical and lost productivity costs. The current best-practice policy approach, Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) programs, are effective primarily by delaying licensure and restricting crash opportunity. There is a critical need for interventions that target families to complement GDL. Consequently, we will determine if a comprehensive parent-teen intervention, the Drivingly Program, reduces teens' risk for a police-reported MVC in the first 12 months of licensure. Drivingly is based on strong preliminary data and targets multiple risk and protective factors by delivering intervention content to teens, and their parents, at the learner and early independent licensing phases.

METHODS

Eligible participants are aged 16-17.33 years of age, have a learner's permit in Pennsylvania, have practiced no more than 10 h, and have at least one parent/caregiver supervising. Participants are recruited from the general community and through the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia's Recruitment Enhancement Core. Teen-parent dyads are randomized 1:1 to Drivingly or usual practice control group. Drivingly participants receive access to an online curriculum which has 16 lessons for parents and 13 for teens and an online logbook; website usage is tracked. Parents receive two, brief, psychoeducational sessions with a trained health coach and teens receive an on-road driving intervention and feedback session after 4.5 months in the study and access to DriverZed, the AAA Foundation's online hazard training program. Teens complete surveys at baseline, 3 months post-baseline, at licensure, 3months post-licensure, 6 months post-licensure, and 12 months post-licensure. Parents complete surveys at baseline, 3 months post-baseline, and at teen licensure. The primary end-point is police-reported MVCs within the first 12 months of licensure; crash data are provided by the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation.

DISCUSSION

Most evaluations of teen driver safety programs have significant methodological limitations including lack of random assignment, insufficient statistical power, and reliance on self-reported MVCs instead of police reports. Results will identify pragmatic and sustainable solutions for MVC prevention in adolescence.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov # NCT03639753.

Pneumonitis After Concurrent Chemoradiation and Immune Checkpoint Inhibition in Patients with Locally Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

AIMS

Pneumonitis is a common and potentially deadly complication of combined chemoradiation and immune checkpoint inhibition (CRT-ICI) in patients with locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC). In this study we sought to identify the risk factors for pneumonitis with CRT-ICI therapy in LA-NSCLC cases and determine its impact on survival.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective chart review of 140 patients with LA-NSCLC who underwent curative-intent CRT-ICI with durvalumab between 2018 and 2021. Pneumonitis was diagnosed by a multidisciplinary team of clinical experts. We used multivariable cause-specific hazard models to identify risk factors associated with grade ≥2 pneumonitis. We constructed multivariable Cox proportional hazard models to investigate the impact of pneumonitis on all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

The median age of the cohort was 67 years; most patients were current or former smokers (86%). The cumulative incidence of grade ≥2 pneumonitis was 23%. Among survivors, 25/28 patients had persistent parenchymal scarring. In multivariable analyses, the mean lung dose (hazard ratio 1.14 per Gy, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.25) and interstitial lung disease (hazard ratio 3.8, 95% confidence interval 1.3-11.0) increased the risk for pneumonitis. In adjusted models, grade ≥2 pneumonitis (hazard ratio 2.5, 95% confidence interval 1.0-6.2, P = 0.049) and high-grade (≥3) pneumonitis (hazard ratio 8.3, 95% confidence interval 3.0-23.0, P < 0.001) were associated with higher all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk factors for pneumonitis in LA-NSCLC patients undergoing CRT-ICI include the mean radiation dose to the lung and pre-treatment interstitial lung disease. Although most cases are not fatal, pneumonitis in this setting is associated with markedly increased mortality.

Associations of dietary patterns with risk of incident atrial fibrillation in the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS)

BACKGROUND

We examined whether the risk of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in a large, biracial, prospective cohort is lower in participants who adhere to heart-healthy dietary patterns and higher in participants who adhere to less heart-healthy diets.

METHODS

Between 2003 and 2007, the REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort study enrolled 30,239 Black and White Americans aged 45 years or older. Dietary patterns (convenience, plant-based, sweets, Southern, and alcohol and salads) and the Mediterranean diet score (MDS) were derived based on food frequency questionnaire data. The primary outcome was incident AF at the follow-up visit 2013-2016, defined by either electrocardiogram or self-reported medical history of a physician diagnosis.

RESULTS

This study included 8977 participants (mean age 63 ± 8.3 years; 56% women; 30% Black) free of AF at baseline who completed the follow-up exam an average of 9.4 years later. A total of 782 incident AF cases were detected. In multivariable logistic regression analyses, neither the MDS score (odds ratio (OR) per SD increment = 1.03; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.95-1.11) or the plant-based dietary pattern (OR per SD increment = 1.03; 95% CI 0.94-1.12) were associated with AF risk. Additionally, an increased AF risk was not associated with any of the less-healthy dietary patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

While specific dietary patterns have been associated with AF risk factors, our findings fail to show an association between diet patterns and AF development.

Modelling Radiation Cancer Treatment with a Death-Rate Term in Ordinary and Fractional Differential Equations

Fractional calculus has recently been applied to the mathematical modelling of tumour growth, but its use introduces complexities that may not be warranted. Mathematical modelling with differential equations is a standard approach to study and predict treatment outcomes for population-level and patient-specific responses. Here, we use patient data of radiation-treated tumours to discuss the benefits and limitations of introducing fractional derivatives into three standard models of tumour growth. The fractional derivative introduces a history-dependence into the growth function, which requires a continuous death-rate term for radiation treatment. This newly proposed radiation-induced death-rate term improves computational efficiency in both ordinary and fractional derivative models. This computational speed-up will benefit common simulation tasks such as model parameterization and the construction and running of virtual clinical trials.

Growth with Commensal Streptococci Alters Streptococcus mutans Behaviors

As oral bacteria grow and persist within biofilms attached to the tooth's surface, they interact with other species to form synergistic or antagonistic exchanges that govern homeostasis for the overall population. One example are the interactions between the cariogenic species Streptococcus mutans and oral commensal streptococci. Previously, we showed that the cell-cell signaling pathways of S. mutans were inhibited during coculture with other oral streptococci species, leading us to posit that the S. mutans transcriptome and behaviors are broadly altered during growth with these species. To test this hypothesis, we performed whole transcriptome sequencing (RNA-seq) on cocultures of S. mutans with either Streptococcus gordonii, Streptococcus sanguinis, or Streptococcus oralis and a quadculture containing all 4 species in comparison to S. mutans grown alone. Our results reveal that in addition to species-dependent changes to the S. mutans transcriptome, a conserved response to oral streptococci in general can be observed. We monitored the behavior of S. mutans by both microscopy imaging of biofilms and in a bacteriocin overlay assay and verified that S. mutans acts similarly with each of these species but noted divergences in phenotypes when cocultured with another cariogenic Streptococcus (Streptococcus sobrinus) or with oral nonstreptococci species. RNA-seq with oral nonstreptococci showed lack of a consistent gene expression profile and overlap of differentially expressed genes found with commensal streptococci. Finally, we investigated the role of upregulated S. mutans genes within our data sets to determine if they provided a fitness benefit during interspecies interactions. Eleven total genes were studied, and we found that a majority impacted the fitness of S. mutans in various assays, highlighted by increased biomass of commensal streptococci in mixed-species biofilms. These results confirm a common, species-independent modification of S. mutans behaviors with oral commensal streptococci that emphasizes the need to further evaluate oral bacteria within multispecies settings.

Psychological and psychosocial aspects of major trauma care: A survey of current practice across UK and Ireland

Introduction

Psychological and psychosocial impacts of major trauma, defined as any injury that has the potential to be life-threatening and/or life changing, are common, far-reaching and often enduring. There is evidence that these aspects of major trauma care are often underserved. The aim of this research was to gain insight into the current provision and operationalisation of psychological and psychosocial aspects of major trauma care across the UK and Ireland.

Methods

A cross-sectional online survey, open to health professionals working in major trauma network hospitals was undertaken. The survey had 69 questions across six sections: Participant Demographics, Psychological First Aid, Psychosocial Assessment and Care, Assessing and Responding to Distress, Clinical Psychology Services, and Major Trauma Keyworker (Coordinator) Role.

Results

There were 102 respondents from across the regions and from a range of professional groups. Survey findings indicate a lack of formalised systems to assess, respond and evaluate psychological and psychosocial aspects of major trauma care, most notably for patients with lower-level distress and psychosocial support needs, and for trauma populations that don't reach threshold for serious injury or complex health need. The findings highlight the role of major trauma keyworkers (coordinators) in psychosocial aspects of care and that although major trauma clinical psychology services are increasingly embedded, many lack the capacity to meet demand.

Conclusion

Neglecting psychological and psychosocial aspects of major trauma care may extend peritraumatic distress, result in preventable Years Lived with Disability and widen post-trauma health inequalities. A stepped psychological and psychosocial care pathway for major trauma patients and their families from the point of injury and continuing as they move through services towards recovery is needed. Research to fulfil knowledge gaps to develop and implement such a model for major trauma populations should be prioritised along with the development of corresponding service specifications for providers.

678. Title: Treatment Outcomes with Carbapenems vs. Non-Carbapenem Beta-Lactams in Infections with Carbapenem-Discordant Enterobacter cloacae Complex

Background

Carbapenem-discordant Enterobacter cloacae complex (CDECC) isolates are defined as ertapenem non-susceptible and meropenem susceptible drug phenotype. The optimal treatment of these infections is unknown. In 2021, the Infectious Diseases Society of America released guidance recommending extended infusion meropenem as the preferred treatment option. Newer agents, including ceftazidime-avibactam, may be effective but comparative data is lacking. Evaluation of treatment outcomes for use in infections with CDECC is necessary to establish optimal therapy.

Methods

This single center, retrospective, cohort study was conducted at The University of Kansas Hospital from January 2016 to June 2021. Individuals at least 18 years of age with non-urinary culture positive for CDECC that were treated with either meropenem (MEM) or a non-carbapenem beta-lactam (NCBL) were included. Individuals with polymicrobial infections, infections from a urinary source, or death within 72 hours of admission were excluded. The primary outcome was clinical failure, which was a composite endpoint. Secondary outcomes included individual components of the primary outcome.

Results

There were 29 unique episodes of monomicrobial, carbapenem-discordant Enterobacter cloacae complex infections during the study period. The primary outcome was met in 6 patients receiving a NCBL and 6 patients receiving MEM, respectively (67% vs. 30%, p=0.11). A total of 8 patients died within 30 days, 4 in the MEM group and 4 in the NCBL group (20% vs. 44%, p = 0.21). Univariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated a significant increase in need to modify antibiotic therapy in the NCBL group (OR 15.2, 95% CI, 1.37-168; p=0.02), with a trend towards increased risk for in-hospital 30-day mortality (OR, 3.2; 95% CI, 0.58-17.72; p = 0.18).

Conclusion

There was no difference in clinical failure rates between the MEM and NCBL treatment groups. However, treatment with NCBLs was associated with a trend towards increased in-hospital mortality and need for antibiotic modifications due to clinical decompensation. Larger studies are needed to assess treatment outcomes in carbapenem-discordant Enterobacter cloacae complex infections to define optimal antibiotic therapy.

Disclosures

All Authors: No reported disclosures.

Immunogenicity, otitis media, hearing impairment, and nasopharyngeal carriage 6-months after 13-valent or ten-valent booster pneumococcal conjugate vaccines, stratified by mixed priming schedules: PREVIX_COMBO and PREVIX_BOOST randomised controlled trials

BACKGROUND

Australian First Nations children are at very high risk of early, recurrent, and persistent bacterial otitis media and respiratory tract infection. With the PREVIX randomised controlled trials, we aimed to evaluate the immunogenicity of novel pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) schedules.

METHODS

PREVIX_BOOST was a parallel, open-label, outcome-assessor-blinded, randomised controlled trial. Aboriginal children living in remote communities of the Northern Territory of Australia were eligible if they had previously completed the three-arm PREVIX_COMBO randomised controlled trial of the following vaccine schedules: three doses of a 13-valent PCV (PCV13; PPP) or a ten-valent pneumococcal Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV10; SSS) given at 2, 4, and 6 months, or SSS given at 1, 2, and 4 months followed by PCV13 at 6 months (SSSP). At age 12 months, eligible children were randomly assigned by a computer-generated random sequence (1:1, stratified by primary group allocation) to receive either a PCV13 booster or a PHiD-CV10 booster. Analyses used intention-to-treat principles. Co-primary outcomes were immunogenicity against protein D and serotypes 3, 6A, and 19A. Immunogenicity measures were geometric mean concentrations (GMC) and proportion of children with IgG concentrations of 0·35 μg/mL or higher (threshold for invasive pneumococcal disease), and GMCs and proportion of children with antibody levels of 100 EU/mL or higher against protein D. Standardised assessments of otitis media, hearing impairment, nasopharyngeal carriage, and developmental outcomes are reported. These trials are registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01735084 and NCT01174849).

FINDINGS

Between April 10, 2013, and Sept 4, 2018, 261 children were randomly allocated to receive a PCV13 booster (n=131) or PHiD-CV10 booster (n=130). Adequate serum samples for pneumococcal serology were obtained from 127 (95%) children in the PCV13 booster group and 126 (97%) in the PHiD-CV10 booster group; for protein D, adequate samples were obtained from 126 (96%) children in the PCV13 booster group and 123 (95%) in the PHiD-CV10 booster group. The proportions of children with IgG concentrations above standard thresholds in PCV13 booster versus PHiD-CV10 booster groups were the following: 71 (56%) of 126 versus 81 (66%) of 123 against protein D (difference 10%, 95% CI -2 to 22), 85 (67%) of 127 versus 59 (47%) of 126 against serotype 3 (-20%, -32 to -8), 119 (94%) of 127 versus 91 (72%) of 126 against serotype 6A (-22%, -31 to -13), and 116 (91%) of 127 versus 108 (86%) of 126 against serotype 19A (-5%, -13 to 3). Infant PCV13 priming mitigated differences between PCV13 and PHiD-CV10 boosters. In both groups, we observed a high prevalence of otitis media (about 90%), hearing impairment (about 75%), nasopharyngeal carriage of pneumococcus (about 66%), and non-typeable H influenzae (about 57%). Of 66 serious adverse events, none were vaccine related.

INTERPRETATION

Low antibody concentrations 6 months post-booster might indicate increased risk of pneumococcal infection. The preferred booster was PCV13 if priming did not have PCV13, otherwise either PCV13 or PHiD-CV10 boosters provided similar immunogenicity. Mixed schedules offer flexibility to regional priorities. Non-PCV13 serotypes and non-typeable H influenzae continue to cause substantial disease and disability in Australian First Nation's children.

FUNDING

National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC).

Irreversible electroporation for colorectal cancer liver metastasis: a review

Irreversible electroporation (IRE) ablation is gaining popularity over the last decade as a nonthermal alternative to thermal ablation technologies such as radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and Microwave ablation (MWA). This review serves as a practical guide for applying IRE to colorectal cancer liver metastases (CRLM) for interventional radiologists, oncologists, surgeons, and anesthesiologists. It covers patient selection, procedural technique, anesthesia, imaging, and outcomes.

COVID-19: Extensive epithelial damage and ciliary dyskinesia in hospitalised patients

Infection with SARS-CoV-2 can cause severe respiratory disease and it is predicted that the COVID-19 pandemic will leave a substantial number of patients with long-term respiratory complications (1).

Public Mental Health services in the European region during the COVID-19 pandemic

The European Public Health Association (EUPHA), in conjunction with the Mental Health Foundation UK, conducted a purposely designed online survey of public and mental health professionals from across Europe, exploring public mental health responses to the pandemic in different regions, nations and localities. Participants were recruited from EUPHAs mental health division and through snowballing. Four broad areas were explored, namely; (1) perceived changes in available mental health supports during the pandemic; (2) whether or not a public mental health response plan had been developed; (3) if any demographic groups or priority areas had been given particularly consideration in this response and (4) how the response had been developed (i.e. whether intersectoral approaches had been adopted and the perceived degree to which service users and carers had been included in its development). Forty-four survey responses from twenty different European nations were collected and grouped according to whether respondents were practising in countries with low, medium or high COVID-19 incidence rates. The majority of responses were from public health professionals with over 20 years of experience. Results indicated wide variations in policy responses to the crisis and in the way mental health services have adapted to date. However, in the majority of countries surveyed, while an increase in online mental health supports during the pandemic was reported, no change in long term funding for mental health supports was observed. In addition, in the majority of countries, several vulnerable groups were rarely given specific attention in policy responses, namely low-income families, people with long-term health conditions or disabilities and ethnic minorities. In this workshop we will discuss the findings from this survey and explore what insights might be learned from experiences across Europe to date.

Skin in the Game: A Policy Implementation Study of How School-Level Bureaucrats Set and Rationalize Advanced Placement Exam Fees for Low-Income Students

As part of their strategies to increase college readiness and reduce educational inequalities, at least 29 states subsidize Advanced Placement (AP) exam fees for low-income students. However, while Michigan's state-level policy subsidized low-income student exams to $5 per exam, we found wide-ranging fee structures at high schools-from $0 to $50. Through a lens of policy implementation theory and using an embedded case study approach, this study examined this disjuncture between the state and school policies using interview data from 33 school personnel-counselors, AP Coordinators, administrators-in 31 high schools and state personnel in Michigan; state policy artifacts; and publicly available school data. We identified three major challenges-many schools hedged and set higher fees because they were unsure how much the legislature would approve each year; the state subsidy did not account for additional exam costs (e.g., exam proctors) that were passed down to the student; and the policy as written lacked enforceability and accountability. Policymakers were largely unaware of the amount schools ultimately charged low-income students. In the presence of an ambiguous policy and constrained resources, school personnel relied on their personal perspectives on fees and behavior (e.g., the need to reduce moral hazard and increase "skin in the game") to rationalize low-income students fees. Together, these findings help explain how low-income students pay vastly different AP exam fees depending on the high school they attend in Michigan-with some schools severely impeding low-income students' college preparatory opportunities.

The use of psoriasis biomarkers, including trajectory of clinical response, to predict clearance and remission duration to UVB phototherapy

BACKGROUND

Remission duration and treatment response following phototherapy for psoriasis are highly variable and factors influencing these are poorly understood.

OBJECTIVES

Our primary outcome was to investigate whether selected clinical/serum biomarkers were associated with remission duration, and secondly with psoriasis clearance at the end of phototherapy. In addition, we looked at whether early trajectory of UVB clearance was associated with final clearance outcome.

METHODS

We performed a prospective cohort study of 100 psoriasis patients, routinely prescribed Narrowband UVB and measured selected clinical and biochemical biomarkers, including weekly PASI (psoriasis area and severity index) scores. Patients were followed up for 18 months.

RESULTS

The median time to relapse was 6 months (95% CI 5-18) if PASI90 was achieved, and 4 months (95% CI 3-9) if less than PASI90 was achieved. Achieving PASI100 did not result in prolonged remission. On UVB completion, the median final PASI (n = 96) was 1.0 (IQR 0.5, 1.6) with 78 (81%) achieving PASI75 and 39 (41%) achieving PASI90. Improved PASI90 response was significantly associated with lower BMI, higher baseline PASI, non-smoking status and lower cumulative NbUVB. Serum levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) and vitamin D were not associated with clearance or remission duration. Early treatment response from weeks 2-3 was predictive of final outcome. For example, achieving PASI30 at week 3 was significantly associated with PASI90 at the end of the course [36/77 (51%) vs. 2/24 (8%), P < 0.001].

CONCLUSIONS

Raised BMI and positive smoking status predicted poorer phototherapy response. For the first time, we have shown that PASI clearance trajectory over the first 2-3 weeks of UVB, can predict psoriasis clearance. This is an important new step towards developing psoriasis personalized prescribing, which can now be formally tested in clinical trials. These simple clinical measures can be used to inform patient treatment expectations; allowing treatment modifications and/or switching to alternative therapies.

Nasopharyngeal carriage of otitis media pathogens in infants receiving 10-valent non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV10), 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) or a mixed primary schedule of both vaccines: A randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Aboriginal children in Northern Australia have a high burden of otitis media, driven by early and persistent nasopharyngeal carriage of otopathogens, including non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) and Streptococcus pneumoniae (Spn). In this context, does a combined mixed primary series of Synflorix and Prevenar13 provide better protection against nasopharyngeal carriage of NTHi and Spn serotypes 3, 6A and 19A than either vaccine alone?

METHODS

Aboriginal infants (n = 425) were randomised to receive Synflorix™ (S, PHiD-CV10) or Prevenar13™ (P, PCV13) at 2, 4 and 6 months (_SSS or _PPP, respectively), or a 4-dose early mixed primary series of PHiD-CV10 at 1, 2 and 4 months and PCV13 at 6 months of age (SSSP). Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected at 1, 2, 4, 6 and 7 months of age. Swabs of ear discharge were collected from tympanic membrane perforations.

FINDINGS

At the primary endpoint at 7 months of age, the proportion of nasopharyngeal (Np) swabs positive for PCV13-only serotypes 3, 6A, or 19A was 0%, 0.8%, and 1.5% in the _PPP, _SSS, and SSSP groups respectively, and NTHi 55%, 52%, and 52% respectively, and no statistically significant vaccine group differences in other otopathogens at any age. The most common serotypes (in order) were 16F, 11A, 10A, 7B, 15A, 6C, 35B, 23B, 13, and 15B, accounting for 65% of carriage. Ear discharge swabs (n = 108) were culture positive for NTHi (52%), S. aureus (32%), and pneumococcus (20%).

CONCLUSIONS

Aboriginal infants experience nasopharyngeal colonisation and tympanic membrane perforations associated with NTHi, non-PCV13 pneumococcal serotypes and S. aureus in the first months of life. Nasopharyngeal carriage of pneumococcus or NTHi was not significantly reduced in the early 4-dose combined SSSP group compared to standard _PPP or _SSS schedules at any time point. Current pneumococcal conjugate vaccine formulations do not offer protection from early onset NTHi and pneumococcal colonisation in this high-risk population.

Interchangeability, immunogenicity and safety of a combined 10-valent pneumococcal Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (Synflorix) and 13-valent-PCV (Prevenar13) schedule at 1-2-4-6 months: PREVIX_COMBO, a 3-arm randomised controlled trial

•

A mix of Synflorix^TM (S) and Prevenar13^TM (P) at 1–2-4–6 months (SSSP) is safe.

•

At 7 months the SSSP schedule is immunogenic against 13 serotypes* and protein D.

•

One-month dose of Synflorix is immunogenic* (8 of 10 serotypes)

•

Two-month dose of Prevenar13 is poorly immunogenic** (8 of 13 serotypes)

•

Two-month dose of Synflorix is superior (8 serotypes) or similar (4) to Prevenar13 *GMC ≥ 0·35 µg/mL **GMC ≤ 0·35 µg/mL.

•

A 4-dose schedule is superior to either 3-dose schedule, particularly against 6B, 19F, and 23F.

Background

Aboriginal children living in remote communities are at high risk of early and persistent otitis media. Streptococcus pneumoniae and non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) are primary pathogens. Vaccines with potential to prevent early OM have not been evaluated in this population. We compared immunogenicity (ELISA and opsonophagocytic activity) of a combination of Synflorix™ (PHiD-CV10, 10 serotypes and protein D of NTHi) and Prevenar13™ (PCV13, 10 serotypes plus 3, 6A, and 19A), with recommended schedules.

Methods

This open-label superiority trial randomised (1:1:1) Aboriginal infants at 28 to 38 days of age, to PCV13 (P) at 2–4-6 months (_PPP), PHiD-CV10 (S) at 2–4-6 months (_SSS), or PHiD-CV10 at 1–2–4 plus PCV13 at −6 months (SSSP). Primary outcomes (blinded) were immunogenicity against PCV13-only serotypes 3, 6A, 19A, and PHiD-CV10-only protein D at 7 months. Secondary outcomes include immunogenicity against all serotypes at 2, 4 and 7 months.

Findings

Between 2011 and 2017, 425 infants were allocated to _PPP(143), _SSS(141) or SSSP(1 4 1). An intention to treat approach including all available data was used. The SSSP group had superior immunogenicity against serotypes 3, 6A, and 19A compared to _SSS (OPA GMT ratios 8.1 to 59.5, p < 0.001), and against protein D compared to _PPP (GMC ratio 11.9 (95%CI 9.7 to 14.6)). Immune responses to protein D and 3, 6A, and 19A in SSSP were not significantly lower (i.e. no harm) than either _SSS or _PPP. For ten common serotypes responses at 2, 4 and 7 months were superior for SSSP (following 1-, 2-, and 4- doses) than _SSS and _PPP (following 0-, 1-, and 3- doses). At 4 months, _SSS was superior to _PPP. Reactogenicity and hospitalisations were rare and unrelated to the intervention.

Interpretation

From two months, the 1–2–4–6-month combined schedule (SSSP) was safe and significantly more immunogenic than 2–4–6-month schedules. The earlier responses may be beneficial in high-risk populations.

Otitis media outcomes of a combined 10-valent pneumococcal Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine schedule at 1-2-4-6 months: PREVIX_COMBO, a 3-arm randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Aboriginal children living in Australian remote communities are at high risk of early and persistent otitis media, hearing loss, and social disadvantage. Streptococcus pneumoniae and non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) are the primary pathogens. We compared otitis media outcomes in infants randomised to either a combination of Synflorix™ (PHiD-CV10, with protein D of NTHi) and Prevenar13™ (PCV13, with 3, 6A, and 19A), with recommended schedules for each vaccine alone. We previously reported superior broader overall immunogenicity of the combination schedule at 7 months, and early superiority of PHiD-CV10 compared to PCV13 at 4 months.

METHODS

In an open-label superiority trial, we randomised (1:1:1) Aboriginal infants at 28 to 38 days of age, to either Prevenar13™ (P) at 2-4-6 months (_PPP), Synflorix™ (S) at 2-4-6 months (_SSS), or Synflorix™ at 1-2-4 months plus Prevenar13™ at 6 months (SSSP). Ears were assessed using tympanometry at 1 and 2 months, combined with otoscopy at 4, 6, and 7 months. A worst ear diagnosis was made for each child visit according to a severity hierarchy of normal, otitis media with effusion (OME), acute otitis media without perforation (AOMwoP), AOM with perforation (AOMwiP), and chronic suppurative otitis media (CSOM).

RESULTS

Between September 2011 and September 2017, 425 infants were allocated to _PPP(143), _SSS(141) or SSSP(141). Ear assessments were successful in 96% scheduled visits. At 7 months prevalence of any OM was 91, 86, and 90% in the _PPP, _SSS, and SSSP groups, respectively. There were no significant differences in prevalence of any form of otitis media between vaccine groups at any age. Combined group prevalence of any OM was 43, 57, 82, 87, and 89% at 1, 2, 4, 6, and 7 months of age, respectively. Of 388 infants with ear assessments at 4, 6 and 7 months, 277 (71.4%) had OM that met criteria for specialist referral; rAOM, pOME, or CSOM.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite superior broader overall immunogenicity of the combination schedule at 7 months, and early superiority of PHiD-CV10 compared to PCV13 at 4 months, there were no significant differences in prevalence of otitis media nor healthy ears throughout the first months of life.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ACTRN12610000544077 registered 06/07/2010 and ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01174849 registered 04/08/2010.

A systematic review and in-depth analysis of outcome reporting in early phase studies of colorectal cancer surgical innovation

AIM

Early phase studies are essential to evaluate new technologies prior to randomized evaluation. Evaluation is limited, however, by inconsistent measurement and reporting of outcomes. This study examines outcome reporting in studies of innovative colorectal cancer surgery.

METHODS

Systematic searches identified studies of invasive procedures treating primary colorectal adenocarcinoma. Included were a random sample of studies which authors reported as 'new' or 'modified'. Outcomes were extracted verbatim and categorized using an existing framework of 32 domains relevant to early phase studies. Outcomes were classified as 'measured' (where there was an explicit statement to that effect or evidence that data collection had occurred) or 'mentioned but not measured' (where outcomes were discussed but data collection was not evident). Patterns of identified outcomes are described.

RESULTS

Of 8373 records, 816 were potentially eligible. Full-text review of a random sample of 218 studies identified 51 for inclusion of which 34 (66%) were 'new' and 17 (33%) were 'modified'. Some 2073 outcomes were identified, and all mapped to domains. 'Anticipated disadvantages' were most frequently identified [660 (32%) outcomes identified across 50 (98%) studies]. No domain was represented in all studies. Under half (944, 46%) of outcomes were 'measured'. 'Surgeon's/operator's experience of the innovation' was more frequently 'mentioned but not measured' [207 (18%) outcomes across 46 (90%) studies] than 'measured' [17 (2%) outcomes, 11 (22%) studies].

CONCLUSION

There is outcome reporting heterogeneity in studies of early phase colorectal cancer surgery. The adoption of core outcome sets may help to resolve these inconsistencies and enable efficient evaluation of surgical innovations.

Burnout and attitudes toward deliberate self harm amongst UK junior doctors

Deliberate self-harm (DSH) is a major global health problem and a significant risk factor for death by suicide. Despite this, those who suffer are often confronted with negative attitudes from healthcare professionals whilst seeking help, with detrimental consequences for treatment outcomes. While several factors may affect attitudes to DSH amongst healthcare professionals, there is now growing evidence to suggest an association with burnout. As current levels of burnout amongst junior doctors are estimated to be high, understanding the nature of this association is crucial. The over-arching aim of this project is therefore to explore junior doctors' attitudes toward DSH in comparison with other presenting conditions and to explore any possible relationship these may have with features of burnout. We conducted an online cross-sectional survey of junior doctors working within NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde. After collecting sociodemographic information, participants were presented with both the abbreviated Maslach Burnout Inventory and the Medical Condition Regard Scale for patients presenting with; Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), Type I Diabetes Mellitus (T1DM), Schizophrenia and DSH. Significant differences in attitudes according to presenting complaints/conditions were identified. Participants reported the highest regard for TIDM and lowest regard for DSH, varying as a function of speciality and years of NHS service. 21% of participants were experiencing 'burnout' to a high degree, and scores also varied as a function of speciality and years of NHS service. No association between burnout and attitudes were observed for any of the investigated diagnoses. Our findings highlight the desperate need for evidence-based interventions to address burnout and negative attitudes toward DSH amongst junior doctors. Moreover, they may suggest that these attitudes worsen through the course of junior doctor training. We would therefore advocate for further research to assess the efficacy of interventions designed to address this.

Outcome selection, measurement and reporting for new surgical procedures and devices: a systematic review of IDEAL/IDEAL-D studies to inform development of a core outcome set

BACKGROUND

Outcome selection, measurement and reporting for the evaluation of new surgical procedures and devices is inconsistent and lacks standardization. A core outcome set may promote the safe and transparent evaluation of surgical innovations. This systematic review examined outcome selection, measurement and reporting in studies conducted within the IDEAL (Idea, Development, Exploration, Assessment and Long-term monitoring) framework to examine current practice and inform the development of a core outcome set for early-phase studies of surgical procedures/devices.

METHODS

Web of Science and Scopus citation searches were performed to identify author-reported IDEAL/IDEAL-D studies for any surgical procedure/device. Outcomes were extracted verbatim, including contextual information regarding outcome selection and measurement. Outcomes were categorized to inform a conceptual framework of outcome domains relevant to evaluating innovation.

RESULTS

Some 48 studies were identified. Outcome selection, measurement and reporting varied widely across studies in different IDEAL stages. From 1737 outcomes extracted, 22 domains specific to evaluating innovation were conceptualized under seven broad categories: procedure completion success/failure; modifications; unanticipated events; surgeons' experiences; patients' experiences; resource use specific to the innovative procedure/device; and other innovation-specific outcomes. Most innovation-specific outcomes were measured and reported in only a small number of studies.

CONCLUSION

This review highlighted the need for guidance and standardization in outcome selection and reporting in the evaluation of new surgical procedures/devices. Novel outcome domains specific to innovation have been identified to establish a core outcome set for future evaluations of surgical innovations.

Correlation between work impairment, scores of rhinitis severity and asthma using the MASK-air® App

BACKGROUND

In allergic rhinitis, a relevant outcome providing information on the effectiveness of interventions is needed. In MASK-air (Mobile Airways Sentinel Network), a visual analogue scale (VAS) for work is used as a relevant outcome. This study aimed to assess the performance of the work VAS work by comparing VAS work with other VAS measurements and symptom-medication scores obtained concurrently.

METHODS

All consecutive MASK-air users in 23 countries from 1 June 2016 to 31 October 2018 were included (14 189 users; 205 904 days). Geolocalized users self-assessed daily symptom control using the touchscreen functionality on their smart phone to click on VAS scores (ranging from 0 to 100) for overall symptoms (global), nose, eyes, asthma and work. Two symptom-medication scores were used: the modified EAACI CSMS score and the MASK control score for rhinitis. To assess data quality, the intra-individual response variability (IRV) index was calculated.

RESULTS

A strong correlation was observed between VAS work and other VAS. The highest levels for correlation with VAS work and variance explained in VAS work were found with VAS global, followed by VAS nose, eye and asthma. In comparison with VAS global, the mCSMS and MASK control score showed a lower correlation with VAS work. Results are unlikely to be explained by a low quality of data arising from repeated VAS measures.

CONCLUSIONS

VAS work correlates with other outcomes (VAS global, nose, eye and asthma) but less well with a symptom-medication score. VAS work should be considered as a potentially useful AR outcome in intervention studies.

Exchange and Survival Sex, Dating Apps, Gender Identity, and Sexual Orientation Among Homeless Youth in Los Angeles

We estimated the association between gender and sexual identities, and engagement in exchange and survival sex and seeking these partners via dating apps or websites, within a sample of homeless youth. In 2017, 253 homeless youth were interviewed from three different drop-in centers in Los Angeles. Multivariable regression analyses assessed associations between gender/sexual identity, and exchange and survival sex, adjusting for demographic characteristics. Sexual minority (43.6%) and gender minority (12.1%) youth reported elevated rates of exchange sex compared to cisgender heterosexual youth. Twenty-three percent of youth who engaged in survival or exchange sex used dating apps or websites to find partners. Exchange sex was associated with having recent HIV positive sex partners. Reporting an HIV positive partner and a relatively high number of sexual partners were significant predictors of engaging in survival sex. Programs and interventions for homeless youth should address engagement with technology and exchange and survival sex, and should respond to the unique needs of sexual and gender minority homeless youth.

10-Valent pneumococcal non-typeable H. influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV10) versus 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) as a booster dose to broaden and strengthen protection from otitis media (PREVIX_BOOST) in Australian Aboriginal children: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Streptococcus pneumoniae and non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) are major otitis media pathogens that densely co-colonise the nasopharynx and infect the middle ear of Australian Aboriginal infants from very early in life. Our co-primary hypotheses are that at 18 months of age infants receiving 10-valent pneumococcal Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV10) compared with those receiving 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) as a booster at 12 months of age will have higher antibody levels to Haemophilus influenzae protein D and that infants receiving PCV13 will have higher antibody levels to PCV13-only serotypes 3, 6A and 19A.

METHODS AND ANALYSES

Our randomised controlled trial will enrol 270 Aboriginal children at 12 months of age to a booster dose of either PHiD-CV10 or PCV13. Children who completed the three-dose primary course schedules of PHiD-CV10 at 2, 4, 6 months of age; PCV13 at 2, 4, 6 months of age; or a combination schedule of PHiD-CV10 at 1, 2, 4 months of age plus PCV13 at 6 months of age are eligible. The co-primary assessor-blinded outcomes when the infants are 18 months of age are as follows: (a) IgG geometric mean concentration (GMC) and proportion with IgG ≥100 EU/mL for protein D, and (b) IgG GMC and the proportion with IgG ≥0.35 µg/mL for pneumococcal serotypes 3, 6A and 19A. Secondary immunogenicity comparisons of six primary and booster dose schedules of 10 shared serotypes at 18 months of age, nasopharyngeal carriage, all forms of otitis media, hearing loss and developmental milestones at 18, 24, 30 and 36 months of age will be reported.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics committees of NT Department of Health, Menzies, WA Department of Health and WA Aboriginal Health approved the study. Results will be presented to communities, at conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT01735084.

Child Caries Management: A Randomized Controlled Trial in Dental Practice

This multicenter 3-arm, parallel-group, patient-randomized controlled trial compared clinical effectiveness of 3 treatment strategies over 3 y for managing dental caries in primary teeth in UK primary dental care. Participants aged 3 to 7 y with at least 1 primary molar with dentinal carious lesion were randomized across 3 arms (1:1:1 via centrally administered system with variable-length random permuted blocks): C+P, conventional carious lesion management (complete carious tooth tissue removal and restoration placement) with prevention; B+P, biological management (sealing in carious tooth tissue restoratively) with prevention; and PA, prevention alone (diet, plaque removal, fluorides, and fissure sealants). Parents, children, and dentists were not blind to allocated arm. Co–primary outcomes were 1) the proportion of participants with at least 1 episode of dental pain and/or infection and 2) the number of episodes of dental pain and/or infection during follow-up (minimum, 23 mo). In sum, 1,144 participants were randomized (C+P, n = 386; B+P, n = 381; PA, n = 377) by 72 general dental practitioners, of whom 1,058 (C+P, n = 352; B+P, n = 352; PA, n = 354) attended at least 1 study visit and were included in the primary analysis. The median follow-up was 33.8 mo (interquartile range, 23.8 to 36.7). Proportions of participants with at least 1 episode of dental pain and/or infection were as follows: C+P, 42%; B+P, 40%; PA, 45%. There was no evidence of a difference in incidence of dental pain and/or infection when B+P (adjusted risk difference [97.5% CI]: −2% [−10% to 6%]) or PA (4% [−4% to 12%]) was compared with C+P. The mean (SD) number of episodes of dental pain and/or infection were as follows: C+P, 0.62 (0.95); B+P, 0.58 (0.87); and PA, 0.72 (0.98). Superiority could not be concluded for number of episodes between B+P (adjusted incident rate ratio (97.5% CI): 0.95 [0.75 to 1.21]) or PA (1.18 [0.94 to 1.48]) and C+P. In conclusion, there was no evidence of a difference among the 3 treatment approaches for incidence or number of episodes of dental pain and/or infection experienced by these participants with high caries risk and established disease (trial registration: ISRCTN77044005).

P3131Evolution of subclinical rheumatic heart disease: a multi-centre retrospective cohort study

Background

Screening echocardiography (echo) detects subclinical rheumatic heart disease (RHD) which is categorised as definite or borderline. The natural history of subclinical RHD is not known. Follow up single centre studies have included a relatively small number of participants, and have shown variable progression rates.

Aim

To determine incidence of and factors associated with progression and regression among a cohort of children with baseline subclinical RHD across multiple countries and regions.

Methods

This is a retrospective cohort study of RHD evolution in children with subclinical RHD. Study sites were Australia, Fiji, Malawi, New Zealand, and Uganda. Progression or regression was determined from echos obtained at baseline and most recent follow-up. Factors associated with echo progression or regression were identified using multivariable logistic regression.

Results

482 participants (131 with definite, 351 with borderline subclinical RHD) from 5 countries were included (mean age 11.5 years, range 5–19 years). Mean follow up was 3.4 yrs (range 0.4–9.5 yrs). Of 482 participating children, 204 (42%) regressed. Among 131 children with definite lesions, 48 (37%) regressed to borderline or normal, and 83 (63%) remained definite. Among 351 children with borderline lesions, 39 (11.1%) progressed, 156 (44.4%) remained borderline, and 156 (44.4%) regressed to normal. World Heart Federation defines subcategories based on characteristics of affected valves. By subcategory, children with definite C (pathological aortic regurgitation and 2 morphologic characteristics of the aortic valve) and borderline A (at least 2 morphologic features of the mitral valve without pathologic mitral regurgitation or stenosis) were less likely to regress, and borderline A was more likely to progress. In univariable analysis, good adherence (>80%) to penicillin prophylaxis (BPG) was associated with more regression among all patients (definite + borderline) (OR 1.9, CI 1, 3.5; p=0.04) but this association did not remain significant after adjustment. With multivariable analysis, borderlines prescribed BPG was the only factor related to progression from borderline to definite (OR 4.1, CI 1.8, 9.3, p<0.01).

Conclusion

This is the largest reported subclinical RHD cohort followed to report outcomes. 42% of definite RHD regressed with subtype C more likely to regress. 11% of borderline RHD progressed. Borderline A was more likely to progress and less likely to regress. We have also identified that being prescribed BPG is associated with borderline progression. This is likely because children with more advanced borderline disease may be more likely to be prescribed BPG. This study highlights that RHD evolution is variable out to 3–4 years post echo detection. While borderline disease is likely, in some cases, to reflect the earliest change of RHD, how this should be monitored and whether it should be treated with BPG should be a priority for future prospective evaluation.

P666Anti-platelet therapy in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: randomised controlled proof of concept trial (APPLE COPD-ICON 2)

Acknowledgement/Funding

Astra Zeneca (Funder reference number ISSBRIL0303)

Psoriasis treat to target: defining outcomes in psoriasis using data from a real-world, population-based cohort study (the British Association of Dermatologists Biologics and Immunomodulators Register, BADBIR)

Background

The ‘treat to target’ paradigm improves outcomes and reduces costs in chronic disease management but is not yet established in psoriasis.

Objectives

To identify treatment targets in psoriasis using two common measures of disease activity: Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) and Physician's Global Assessment (PGA).

Methods

Data from a multicentre longitudinal U.K. cohort of patients with psoriasis receiving systemic or biologic therapies (British Association of Dermatologists Biologics and Immunomodulators Register, BADBIR) were used to identify absolute PASI thresholds for 90% (PASI 90) and 75% (PASI 75) improvements in baseline disease activity, using receiver operating characteristic curves. The relationship between PGA (clear, almost clear, mild, moderate, moderate–severe, severe) and PASI (range 0–72) was described, and the concordance between absolute and relative definitions of response was determined. The same approach was used to establish treatment response and eligibility definitions based on PGA.

Results

Data from 13 422 patients were available (58% male, 91% white ethnicity, mean age 44·9 years), including over 23 000 longitudinal PASI and PGA scores. An absolute PASI ≤ 2 was concordant with PASI 90 and an absolute PASI ≤ 4 was concordant with PASI 75 in 90% and 88% of cases, respectively. These findings were robust to subgroups of timing of assessment, baseline disease severity and treatment modality. PASI and PGA were strongly correlated (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient 0·92). The median PASI increased from 0 (interquartile range 0–0, range 0–23) to 19 (interquartile range 15–25, range 0–64) for PGA clear to severe, respectively. PGA clear/almost clear was concordant with PASI ≤ 2 in 90% of cases, and PGA moderate–severe severe was concordant with the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence PASI eligibility criteria for biologics in 81% of cases.

Conclusions

An absolute PASI ≤ 2 and PGA clear/almost clear represent relevant disease end points to inform treat‐to‐target management strategies in psoriasis.

What's already known about this topic?

The most commonly used relative disease activity measure in psoriasis is ≥ 90% improvement in Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI 90); however, it has several limitations including dependency on a baseline severity assessment.

Defining an absolute target disease activity end point in psoriasis has the potential to improve patient outcomes and reduce costs, as demonstrated by treat‐to‐target approaches in other chronic diseases such as hypertension and diabetes.

The Physician's Global Assessment (PGA) is a popular alternative measure of psoriasis severity in daily practice; however, its utility has not been formally assessed with respect to PASI.

What does this study add?

An absolute PASI ≤ 2 corresponds with PASI 90 response and is a relevant disease end point for treat‐to‐target approaches in psoriasis.

There is a strong correlation between PASI and PGA.

PGA moderate–severe/severe may serve as an alternative eligibility criterion for biologics to PASI‐based definitions, and PGA clear/almost clear is an appropriate alternative absolute treatment end point.

What are the clinical implications of this work?

Absolute PASI ≤ 2 and PGA clear/almost clear represent relevant disease end points to inform treat‐to‐target management strategies in psoriasis.

Linked Editorial: Takeshita. Br J Dermatol 2020; 182:1075–1076.

Persistence and effectiveness of nonbiologic systemic therapies for moderate-to-severe psoriasis in adults: a systematic review

Background

The persistence and effectiveness of systemic therapies for moderate‐to‐severe psoriasis in current clinical practice are poorly characterized.

Objectives

To systematically review observational studies investigating the persistence and effectiveness of acitretin, ciclosporin, fumaric acid esters (FAE) and methotrexate, involving at least 100 adult patients with moderate‐to‐severe psoriasis, exposed to therapy for ≥ 3 months.

Methods

MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Library and PubMed were searched from 1 January 2007 to 1 November 2017 for observational studies reporting on persistence (therapy duration or the proportion of patients discontinuing therapy during follow‐up) or effectiveness [improvements in Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) or Physician's Global Assessment (PGA)]. This review was registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42018099771.

Results

Of 411 identified studies, eight involving 4624 patients with psoriasis were included. Variations in the definitions and analyses of persistence and effectiveness outcomes prevented a meta‐analysis from being conducted. One prospective multicentre study reported drug survival probabilities of 23% (ciclosporin), 42% (acitretin) and 50% (methotrexate) at 1 year. Effectiveness outcomes were not reported for either acitretin or ciclosporin. The persistence and effectiveness of FAE and methotrexate were better characterized, but mean discontinuation times ranged from 28 to 50 months for FAE and 7·7 to 22·3 months for methotrexate. At 12 months of follow‐up, three studies reported that 76% (FAE), 53% (methotrexate) and 59% (methotrexate) of patients achieved ≥ 75% reduction in PASI, and one reported that 76% of FAE‐exposed patients achieved a markedly improved or clear PGA.

Conclusions

The comparative persistence and effectiveness of acitretin, ciclosporin, FAE and methotrexate in real‐world clinical practice in the past decade cannot be well described due to the inconsistency of the methods used.

What's already known about this topic?

Research examining acitretin, ciclosporin, fumaric acid esters (FAE) and methotrexate for the treatment of moderate‐to‐severe psoriasis has focused on safety and efficacy in randomized controlled trials.

The persistence and effectiveness of acitretin, ciclosporin, FAE and methotrexate since the introduction of biologic therapies in real‐world clinical practice are poorly understood.

What does this study add?

This systematic review examines the persistence and effectiveness of methotrexate, acitretin, ciclosporin and FAE for moderate‐to‐severe psoriasis.

Data on the persistence and effectiveness of systemic therapies are lacking, particularly for acitretin and ciclosporin.

The definitions of persistence and reporting of effectiveness are inconsistent.

Further good‐quality observational studies are needed to explore the real‐world persistence and effectiveness of systemic treatments used for psoriasis.

Linked Comment: Garcia-Doval and Sbidian. Br J Dermatol 2019; 181:237.

Plain language summary available online

A Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score Predicts Progression of Islet Autoimmunity and Development of Type 1 Diabetes in Individuals at Risk

OBJECTIVE

We tested the ability of a type 1 diabetes (T1D) genetic risk score (GRS) to predict progression of islet autoimmunity and T1D in at-risk individuals.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We studied the 1,244 TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study participants (T1D patients' relatives without diabetes and with one or more positive autoantibodies) who were genotyped with Illumina ImmunoChip (median [range] age at initial autoantibody determination 11.1 years [1.2-51.8], 48% male, 80.5% non-Hispanic white, median follow-up 5.4 years). Of 291 participants with a single positive autoantibody at screening, 157 converted to multiple autoantibody positivity and 55 developed diabetes. Of 953 participants with multiple positive autoantibodies at screening, 419 developed diabetes. We calculated the T1D GRS from 30 T1D-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. We used multivariable Cox regression models, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, and area under the curve (AUC) measures to evaluate prognostic utility of T1D GRS, age, sex, Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) Risk Score, positive autoantibody number or type, HLA DR3/DR4-DQ8 status, and race/ethnicity. We used recursive partitioning analyses to identify cut points in continuous variables.

RESULTS

Higher T1D GRS significantly increased the rate of progression to T1D adjusting for DPT-1 Risk Score, age, number of positive autoantibodies, sex, and ethnicity (hazard ratio [HR] 1.29 for a 0.05 increase, 95% CI 1.06-1.6; P = 0.011). Progression to T1D was best predicted by a combined model with GRS, number of positive autoantibodies, DPT-1 Risk Score, and age (7-year time-integrated AUC = 0.79, 5-year AUC = 0.73). Higher GRS was significantly associated with increased progression rate from single to multiple positive autoantibodies after adjusting for age, autoantibody type, ethnicity, and sex (HR 2.27 for GRS >0.295, 95% CI 1.47-3.51; P = 0.0002).

CONCLUSIONS

The T1D GRS independently predicts progression to T1D and improves prediction along T1D stages in autoantibody-positive relatives.

Risk Factors for the Development of Cytomegalovirus Resistance in Solid Organ Transplantation: A Retrospective Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) resistance is an emerging problem in solid organ transplant recipients. Risk factors are not well defined.

METHODS

Recipients with CMV viremia of solid organ transplants who underwent CMV resistance testing between January 2010 and March 2016 were divided in 2 groups: proven CMV resistance and refractory CMV infection. A third group was added to compare patients with viremia during the study period with patients with no resistance proven or suspected. We aimed to identify risk factors associated with the occurrence of CMV genotypic resistance.

RESULTS

Forty-nine patients underwent resistance testing. Eleven (22.45%) developed genotypic mutations. Group 1 vs groups 2 and 3 had higher prednisone (P = .01) and tacrolimus levels (P = .03); did not respond to antivirals (P < .0001); and had a higher rate of fungal infections (P = .03). CMV resistance was less common in liver and kidney vs heart, small bowel, and mutivisceral recipients (P = .0007). There was no difference in duration of antiviral prophylaxis, viremia while on antiviral prophylaxis, rate of end-organ disease, graft loss, and overall survival. Persistent clinical disease and viremia despite antiviral therapy was the most important risk factor for development of CMV resistance.

CONCLUSION

Persistent clinical disease despite antiviral therapy is an important risk factor and may in part be due to a high degree of immunosuppression. Graft loss and survival were not impacted by CMV resistance.