HIV care cost in England: a cross-sectional analysis of antiretroviral treatment and the impact of generic introduction

OBJECTIVES

Reliable and timely HIV care cost estimates are important for policy option appraisals of HIV treatment and prevention strategies. As HIV clinical management and outcomes have changed, we aimed to update profiles of antiretroviral (ARV) usage pattern, patent/market exclusivity details and management costs in adults (≥ 18 years old) accessing HIV specialist care in England.

METHODS

The data reported quarterly to the HIV and AIDS Reporting System in England was used to identify ARV usage pattern, and were combined with British National Formulary (BNF) prices, non-ARV care costs and patent/market exclusivity information to generate average survival-adjusted lifetime care costs. The cumulative budget impact from 2018 to the year in which all current ARVs were expected to lose market exclusivity was calculated for a hypothetical 85 000 (± 5000) person cohort, which provided an illustration of potential financial savings afforded by bioequivalent generic switches. Price scenarios explored BNF70 (September 2015) prices and generics at 10/20/30/50% of proprietary prices. The analyses took National Health Service (NHS) England's perspective (as the payer), and results are presented in 2016/2017 British pounds.

RESULTS

By 2033, most currently available ARVs would lose market exclusivity; that is, generics could be available. Average per person lifetime HIV cost was ~£200 000 (3.5% annual discount) or ~£400 000 (undiscounted), reducing to ~£70 000 (3.5% annual discount; ~£120 000 undiscounted) with the use of generics (assuming that generics cost 10% of proprietary prices). The cumulative budget to cover 85 000 (± 5000) persons for 16 years (2018-2033) was £10.5 (± 0.6) billion, reducing to £3.6 (± 0.2) billion with the use of generics.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV management costs are high but financial efficiency could be improved by optimizing generic use for treatment and prevention to mitigate the high cost of lifelong HIV treatment. Earlier implementation of generics as they become available offers the potential to maximize the scale of the financial savings.

Sexual behaviours and sexually transmitted infection outcomes in a cohort of HIV-negative men who have sex with men attending sexual health clinics in England

Men who have sex with men (MSM) attending sexual health (SH) clinics are at high risk for HIV acquisition and are disproportionately affected by sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We collected standardised behavioural data from MSM attending clinics to characterise sexual behaviours and identify predictors for HIV and STIs. In 2012–2013, HIV-negative MSM attending five SH clinics in England reported sexual behaviours in the previous three months via a self-administered questionnaire. Behaviours were linked to the individual’s clinical records using national surveillance. The prevalence and incidence of bacterial STIs (gonorrhoea, Chlamydia, lymphogranuloma venereum and syphilis) and incidence of HIV were calculated. Adjusted odds ratios and hazard ratios with 95% confidence interval (CI) were reported for significant predictors. Of 1278 HIV-negative MSM, 54% were of white ethnicity and UK-born and 43% were 25–34 years old. Almost all men reported at least one partner in the last three months. Half reported condomless anal sex and 36% condomless receptive anal intercourse (CRAI). Incidence of bacterial STIs was 46/100 (95%CI 39–54) person years (py) and of HIV was 3.1/100 (95%CI 1.7–5.6) py. A STI at baseline and CRAI with increasing numbers of partners were associated with both incident infections. In this cohort of MSM high-risk behaviours and STIs were prevalent. Engagement in CRAI increased the likelihood of subsequent infection, while men diagnosed with a bacterial STI were at increased risk of a future STI. Clinical and behavioural risk assessments to determine an individual’s risk of infection could allow a more nuanced prevention approach that has greater success in reducing transmission.

HIV incidence in an open national cohort of men who have sex with men attending sexually transmitted infection clinics in England

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to determine HIV incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM) who repeat test for HIV at sexually transmitted infection (STI) clinics in England, and identify associated factors.

METHODS

Annual HIV incidence and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated for a national cohort of MSM who tested HIV negative at any STI clinic in England in 2012 and had a follow-up test within 1 year using routinely collected data. Cox regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of HIV acquisition and population attributable risk for HIV infection was calculated for predictors.

RESULTS

In 2012, 85 500 MSM not known to be HIV positive attended any STI clinic in England, and 31% tested for HIV at least twice within 1 year at the same clinic. HIV incidence was 2.0 per 100 person-years (PY; 95% CI 1.8-2.2) among repeat testers. Incidence was higher among MSM of black ethnicity (3.2 per 100 PY) and those with a bacterial STI diagnosis at the initial attendance (3.2 per 100 PY). MSM with a previous syphilis or gonorrhoea infection were at significantly greater risk of acquiring HIV in the subsequent year [adjusted hazard ratio 4.1 (95% CI 2.0-8.3) and 2.1 (95% CI 1.4-3.2), respectively]. The predictors accounted for 37% of HIV infections.

CONCLUSIONS

Annual HIV incidence among MSM attending STI clinics in England is high. Previous STIs were predictors of HIV acquisition but only accounted for one in five infections. More discriminatory behavioural predictors of HIV acquisition could provide better triaging of HIV prevention services for MSM attending STI clinics.

An analysis of baseline data from the PROUD study: an open-label randomised trial of pre-exposure prophylaxis

Background

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has proven biological efficacy to reduce the sexual acquisition of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The PROUD study found that PrEP conferred higher protection than in placebo-controlled trials, reducing HIV incidence by 86 % in a population with seven-fold higher HIV incidence than expected. We present the baseline characteristics of the PROUD study population and place the findings in the context of national sexual health clinic data.

Methods

The PROUD study was designed to explore the real-world effectiveness of PrEP (tenofovir-emtricitabine) by randomising HIV-negative gay and other men who have sex with men (GMSM) to receive open-label PrEP immediately or after a deferral period of 12 months. At enrolment, participants self-completed two baseline questionnaires collecting information on demographics, sexual behaviour and lifestyle in the last 30 and 90 days. These data were compared to data from HIV-negative GMSM attending sexual health clinics in 2013, collated by Public Health England using the genitourinary medicine clinic activity database (GUMCAD).

Results

The median age of participants was 35 (IQR: 29–43). Typically participants were white (81 %), educated at a university level (61 %) and in full-time employment (72 %). Of all participants, 217 (40 %) were born outside the UK. A sexually transmitted infection (STI) was reported to have been diagnosed in the previous 12 months in 330/515 (64 %) and 473/544 (87 %) participants reported ever having being diagnosed with an STI. At enrolment, 47/280 (17 %) participants were diagnosed with an STI. Participants reported a median (IQR) of 10 (5–20) partners in the last 90 days, a median (IQR) of 2 (1–5) were condomless sex acts where the participant was receptive and 2 (1–6) were condomless where the participant was insertive. Post-exposure prophylaxis had been prescribed to 184 (34 %) participants in the past 12 months. The number of STI diagnoses was high compared to those reported in GUMCAD attendees.

Conclusions

The PROUD study population are at substantially higher risk of acquiring HIV infection sexually than the overall population of GMSM attending sexual health clinics in England. These findings contribute to explaining the extraordinary HIV incidence rate during follow-up and demonstrate that, despite broad eligibility criteria, the population interested in PrEP was highly selective.

Trial registration

Current Controlled TrialsISRCTN94465371. Date of registration: 28 February 2013.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13063-016-1286-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis to prevent the acquisition of HIV-1 infection (PROUD): effectiveness results from the pilot phase of a pragmatic open-label randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Randomised placebo-controlled trials have shown that daily oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir-emtricitabine reduces the risk of HIV infection. However, this benefit could be counteracted by risk compensation in users of PrEP. We did the PROUD study to assess this effect.

METHODS

PROUD is an open-label randomised trial done at 13 sexual health clinics in England. We enrolled HIV-negative gay and other men who have sex with men who had had anal intercourse without a condom in the previous 90 days. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive daily combined tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (245 mg) and emtricitabine (200 mg) either immediately or after a deferral period of 1 year. Randomisation was done via web-based access to a central computer-generated list with variable block sizes (stratified by clinical site). Follow-up was quarterly. The primary outcomes for the pilot phase were time to accrue 500 participants and retention; secondary outcomes included incident HIV infection during the deferral period, safety, adherence, and risk compensation. The trial is registered with ISRCTN (number ISRCTN94465371) and ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02065986).

FINDINGS

We enrolled 544 participants (275 in the immediate group, 269 in the deferred group) between Nov 29, 2012, and April 30, 2014. Based on early evidence of effectiveness, the trial steering committee recommended on Oct 13, 2014, that all deferred participants be offered PrEP. Follow-up for HIV incidence was complete for 243 (94%) of 259 patient-years in the immediate group versus 222 (90%) of 245 patient-years in the deferred group. Three HIV infections occurred in the immediate group (1·2/100 person-years) versus 20 in the deferred group (9·0/100 person-years) despite 174 prescriptions of post-exposure prophylaxis in the deferred group (relative reduction 86%, 90% CI 64-96, p=0·0001; absolute difference 7·8/100 person-years, 90% CI 4·3-11·3). 13 men (90% CI 9-23) in a similar population would need access to 1 year of PrEP to avert one HIV infection. We recorded no serious adverse drug reactions; 28 adverse events, most commonly nausea, headache, and arthralgia, resulted in interruption of PrEp. We detected no difference in the occurrence of sexually transmitted infections, including rectal gonorrhoea and chlamydia, between groups, despite a suggestion of risk compensation among some PrEP recipients.

INTERPRETATION

In this high incidence population, daily tenofovir-emtricitabine conferred even higher protection against HIV than in placebo-controlled trials, refuting concerns that effectiveness would be less in a real-world setting. There was no evidence of an increase in other sexually transmitted infections. Our findings strongly support the addition of PrEP to the standard of prevention for men who have sex with men at risk of HIV infection.

FUNDING

MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL, Public Health England, and Gilead Sciences.

Managing the risk of iatrogenic transmission of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the UK

BACKGROUND

With the emergence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) in the UK, there is concern about iatrogenic transmission, and the approach to managing this risk is unique.

AIM

To describe and review CJD incident management and the notification of individuals 'at increased risk' as a strategy for reducing iatrogenic transmission.

METHODS

A description of iatrogenic CJD transmission, the CJD Incidents Panel's role, the number and nature of CJD incidents reported and the individuals considered 'at increased risk' by mid-2012.

FINDINGS

Seventy-seven UK cases of CJD are likely to have resulted from iatrogenic transmission, among recipients of human-derived growth hormone (64 cases), dura mater grafts (eight cases), blood transfusions (four cases) and plasma products (one case). To limit transmission, the Panel reviewed 490 incidents and advised on look-backs, recalls of blood and plasma products, and quarantining and disposing of surgical instruments. Additionally, on Panel advice, around 6000 asymptomatic individuals have been informed they are at increased risk of CJD and have been asked to follow public health precautions.

CONCLUSION

The strategy to reduce iatrogenic transmission of CJD has been developed in a context of scientific uncertainty. The rarity of transmission events could indicate that incident-related exposures present negligible transmission risks, or--given the prolonged incubation and subclinical phenotypes of CJD--infections could be yet to occur or have been undetected. Scientific developments, including better estimates of infection prevalence, a screening test, or improvements in decontaminating surgical instruments, may change future risk management.

Recent infection testing algorithm (RITA) applied to new HIV diagnoses in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, 2009 to 2011

In 2009, Public Health England (PHE) introduced the routine application of a recent infection testing algorithm (RITA) to new HIV diagnoses, where a positive RITA result indicates likely acquisition of infection in the previous six months. Laboratories submit serum specimens to PHE for testing using the HIV 1/2gO AxSYM assay modified for the determination of HIV antibody avidity. Results are classified according to avidity index and data on CD₄ count, antiretroviral treatment and the presence of an AIDS-defining illness. Between 2009 and 2011, 38.4% (6,966/18,134) of new HIV diagnoses in England, Wales and Northern Ireland were tested. Demographic characteristics of those tested were similar to all persons with diagnosed HIV. Overall, recent infection was 14.7% (1,022/6,966) and higher among men who have sex with men (MSM) (22.3%, 720/3,223) compared with heterosexual men and women (7.8%, 247/3,164). Higher proportions were among persons aged 15-24 years compared with those ≥50 years (MSM 31.2% (139/445) vs 13.6% (42/308); heterosexual men and women 17.3% (43/249) vs 6.2% (31/501)). Among heterosexual men and women, black Africans were least likely to have recent infection compared with whites (4.8%, 90/1,892 vs 13.3%, 97/728; adjusted odds ratio: 0.6; 95% CI: 0.4-0.9). Our results indicate evidence of ongoing HIV transmission during the study period, particularly among MSM.

Reduction in HPV 16/18 prevalence in sexually active young women following the introduction of HPV immunisation in England

•

We monitor HPV infection in sexually active young women in England.

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The prevalence of HPV 16/18 has reduced within 3 years of HPV immunisation.

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Reductions in HPV 16/18 were greatest at ages with highest immunisation coverage.

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The data suggest reductions in HPV 16/18 amongst unvaccinated young women and men.

Background

Reduction in the prevalence of vaccine type HPV infection in young women is an early indication of the impact of the HPV immunisation programme and a necessary outcome if the subsequent impact on cervical cancer is to be realised.

Methods

Residual vulva-vaginal swab (VVS) specimens from young women aged 16–24 years undergoing chlamydia screening in community sexual health services (formerly known as family planning clinics), general practice (GP), and youth clinics in 2010–2012 were submitted from 10 laboratories in seven regions around England. These specimens were linked to demographic and sexual behaviour data reported with the chlamydia test, anonymised, and tested for type-specific HPV DNA using a multiplex PCR and Luminex-based genotyping test. Estimated immunisation coverage was calculated and findings were compared to a baseline survey conducted prior to the introduction of HPV immunisation in 2008.

Results

A total of 4664 eligible specimens were collected and 4178 had a valid test result. The post-immunisation prevalence of HPV 16/18 infection was lowest in this youngest age group (16–18 years) and increased with age. This increase with age was a reversal of the pattern seen prior to immunisation and was inversely associated with estimates of age-specific immunisation coverage (65% for 16–18 year olds). The prevalence of HPV 16/18 infection in the post-immunisation survey was 6.5% amongst 16–18 year olds, compared to 19.1% in the similar survey conducted prior to the introduction of HPV immunisation.

Conclusions

These findings are the first indication that the national HPV immunisation programme is successfully preventing HPV 16/18 infection in sexually active young women in England. The reductions seen suggest, for the estimated coverage, high vaccine effectiveness and some herd-protection benefits. Continued surveillance is needed to determine the effects of immunisation on non-vaccine HPV types.

Bayesian evidence synthesis for a transmission dynamic model for HIV among men who have sex with men

Understanding infectious disease dynamics and the effect on prevalence and incidence is crucial for public health policies. Disease incidence and prevalence are typically not observed directly and increasingly are estimated through the synthesis of indirect information from multiple data sources. We demonstrate how an evidence synthesis approach to the estimation of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence in England and Wales can be extended to infer the underlying HIV incidence. Diverse time series of data can be used to obtain yearly “snapshots” (with associated uncertainty) of the proportion of the population in 4 compartments: not at risk, susceptible, HIV positive but undiagnosed, and diagnosed HIV positive. A multistate model for the infection and diagnosis processes is then formulated by expressing the changes in these proportions by a system of differential equations. By parameterizing incidence in terms of prevalence and contact rates, HIV transmission is further modeled. Use of additional data or prior information on demographics, risk behavior change and contact parameters allows simultaneous estimation of the transition rates, compartment prevalences, contact rates, and transmission probabilities.

Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus types 2 and 1 amongst men who have sex with men attending sexual health clinics in England and Wales: implications for HIV prevention and management

The objective was to investigate herpes simplex virus (HSV) epidemiology amongst HIV-positive and HIV-negative men who have sex with men (MSM) in England and Wales. Unlinked anonymous sera from 3,968 MSM attending 12 sexual health clinics in 2003 were tested for HIV, HSV-2 and HSV-1 antibodies. Fifty-five percent of HIV-positive MSM were HSV-2-seropositive, compared to 17% of HIV-negative MSM (Adj RR: 2.14 [CI: 1.92-2.37]). Amongst HIV-positive individuals, there was no significant difference in HSV-2 seroprevalence by knowledge of HIV status or whether the HIV infection was recently acquired (determined through STARHS). HIV infection was also independently associated with HSV-1 serostatus (Adj RR 1.19 [CI: 1.14-1.24)]). Four of the twelve attendees who received a diagnosis of recurrent anogenital herpes at the clinic visit were HSV-1-seropositive but not HSV-2-seropositive at the time, although no cultures or PCR results were available to type the cause of the ano-genital presenting disease. It is of concern that one in two HIV-positive MSM and one in six HIV-negative MSM may be infected with HSV-2, given increasing evidence of its impact on HIV progression, onward transmission and acquisition. To date results have been disappointing from trials aimed at reducing HIV onward transmission and HIV acquisition using HSV antiviral medication. However, recent research in an African context demonstrates the efficacy of HSV antivirals in delaying HIV progression. The high prevalence of HSV-2 amongst HIV-positive MSM suggests that an increased focus on HSV control in the management of HIV amongst MSM in the United Kingdom may be warranted. Given this and existing research on the high prevalence of genitally acquired HSV-1 amongst MSM in the UK, further research is also warranted into the role of HSV-1 in the HIV epidemic in this context.

The cost-effectiveness of screening and treatment for hepatitis C in prisons in England and Wales: a cost-utility analysis

Prisoners have a high prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection compared with the general population in England and Wales and in many locations throughout the world. This is because of large numbers of injecting drug users that engage in behaviours likely to transmit HCV being present within prison populations. It is, therefore, suggested that prison may be an appropriate location for HCV screening and treatment to be administered. Using cost-utility analysis, this study considers the costs and benefits of administering a single round of screening on reception into prison to all individuals followed by possible later screening in the community and comparing this to individuals who may only be tested and treated in the community at a later date. The cost/QALY of one round of prison testing and treatment was found to be 54,852 pounds sterling, although probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed extensive uncertainty about this estimate. One-way sensitivity analysis revealed the importance of the parameters describing the progression of chronic HCV and the discount rates. While the results presented here at baseline would suggest that screening and treatment for HCV in prisons is not cost-effective, these results are subject to much uncertainty. The importance of the rates describing the progression of chronic HCV on the cost-effectiveness of this intervention has been demonstrated and this suggests that future work should be undertaken to gain further insight into the rates that individuals progress to the later stages of chronic HCV infection.

Implications for HIV testing policy derived from combining data on voluntary confidential testing with viral sequences and serological analyses

OBJECTIVES

Laboratory, clinical and sequence-based data were combined to assess the differential uptake of voluntary confidential HIV testing (VCT) according to risk and explore the occurrence of HIV transmission from individuals with recently acquired HIV infection, before the diagnostic opportunity.

METHODS

Between 1999 and 2002, nearly 30,000 anonymous tests for previously undiagnosed HIV infection were conducted among men who have sex with men (MSM) attending 15 sentinel sexually transmitted infection (STI) clinics in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Using a serological testing algorithm, undiagnosed HIV-infected men were categorised into those with recent and non-recent infection. VCT uptake was compared between HIV-negative, recently HIV-infected and non-recently HIV-infected men. A phylogenetic analysis of HIV pol sequences from 127 recently HIV-infected MSM was conducted to identify instances in which transmission may have occurred before the diagnostic opportunity.

RESULTS

HIV-negative MSM were more likely to receive VCT at clinic visits compared with undiagnosed HIV-infected MSM (56% (14,020/24,938) vs 31% (335/1072); p<0.001). Recently HIV-infected MSM were more likely to receive VCT compared with those with non-recent infections (42% (97/229) vs 28% (238/844); p<0.001). 22% (95/425) of undiagnosed HIV-infected MSM with STI received VCT. Phylogenetic analysis revealed at least seven transmissions may have been generated by recently HIV-infected MSM: a group that attended STI clinics soon after seroconversion.

CONCLUSIONS

The integration of clinical, laboratory and sequence-based data reveals the need for specific targeting of the recently HIV exposed, and those with STI, for VCT. VCT promotion alone may be limited in its ability to prevent HIV transmission.

HIV in gay and bisexual men in the United Kingdom: 25 years of public health surveillance

It is more than 25 years since the first case of AIDS was reported in the United Kingdom. In December 1981 a gay man was referred to a London hospital with opportunistic infections indicative of immunosuppression. National surveillance began the following year, in September 1982, with the notification of deaths and clinical reports of AIDS and Kaposi's sarcoma plus laboratory reports of opportunistic infections. Since then epidemiological surveillance systems have evolved, adapting to, and taking advantage of advances in treatments and laboratory techniques. The introduction of the HIV antibody test in 1984 led to the reporting of HIV-positive tests by laboratories and the establishment of an unlinked anonymous survey in 1990 measuring undiagnosed HIV infection among gay men attending sexual health clinics. The widespread use of highly active antiretroviral therapies (HAART) since 1996 has averted many deaths among HIV-positive gay men and has also resulted in a large reduction in AIDS cases. This led to a need for an enumeration of gay men with HIV accessing NHS treatment and care services (1995 onwards), more clinical information on HIV diagnoses for epidemiological surveillance (2000 onwards) and the routine monitoring of drug resistance (2001 onwards). Twenty-five years after the first case of AIDS was reported, gay and bisexual men remain the group at greatest risk of acquiring HIV in the United Kingdom. Latest estimates suggest that in 2004, 26 500 gay and bisexual men were living with HIV in the United Kingdom, a quarter of whom were undiagnosed. In this review, we examine how national surveillance systems have evolved over the past 25 years in response to the changing epidemiology of HIV/AIDS among gay and bisexual men in the United Kingdom as well as advances in laboratory techniques and medical treatments. We also reflect on how they will need to continue evolving to effectively inform health policy in the future.

Twenty years of selective hepatitis B vaccination: is hepatitis B declining among injecting drug users in England and Wales?

Injection drug use is a common route of infection for the hepatitis B virus (HBV) in the UK. The aim of this study was to establish the prevalence and force of infection for HBV among injecting drug users (IDUs) recruited from multiple community and drug agency settings in England and Wales between 1990 and 2004. Cross-sectional studies of IDUs in and out of contact with drug agencies were conducted throughout the 15-year period. Oral fluid samples were tested for antibodies to the hepatitis B core antigen (anti-HBc). Logistic regression was used to investigate associations between risk factors and anti-HBc positivity and force of infection models were explored. In total, 2527 injectors were recruited from community settings, and 29 386 from drug agencies. Anti-HBc prevalence was 31% (95% CI 30.7-31.8%). It declined in the early 1990s from around 50% in 1992 to 25% in 1999, after which it increased slightly. It was also higher in those who had injected for longer, older IDUs, those recruited in London and North West England, and those reporting having a previous voluntary confidential HIV test. The force of infection models suggested that the incidence of infection increased in 1999-2004 compared with 1993-1998, and was higher in new injectors compared with those injecting for > or =1 year. In conclusion, findings suggest ongoing HBV transmission in recent years despite an overall decline in prevalence in the early and mid-1990s, and highlight the importance of targeting vaccination programmes at new IDUs who have high incidence rates of infection.

Estimating adult HIV prevalence in the UK in 2003: the direct method of estimation

BACKGROUND

Estimates of the total number of prevalent HIV infections attributable to the major routes of infection make an important contribution to public health policy, as they are used for planning services.

METHODS

In the UK, estimates were derived through the "direct method" which estimated the total number of diagnosed and undiagnosed HIV infections in the population. The direct method has been improved over a number of years since first used in 1994, as further data became available such as the inclusion of newly available behavioural survey data both from the National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal 2000) and community surveys of men who have sex with men (MSM). These data were used to re-estimate numbers of people unaware of their infection and provided ethnic breakdowns within behavioural categories. The total population was divided into 10 mutually exclusive behavioural categories relevant to HIV risk in the UK-for example, MSM and injecting drug users. Estimates of the population size within each group were derived from Natsal 2000 and National Statistics mid-year population estimates. The total number of undiagnosed HIV infections was calculated by multiplying the undiagnosed HIV prevalence for each group, derived from the Unlinked Anonymous HIV Prevalence Monitoring Programme surveys (UAPMP), by the population size. These estimates were then added to the prevalent diagnosed HIV infections within each group derived from the national census of diagnosed HIV infections, the Survey of Prevalent HIV Infections Diagnosed (SOPHID). The estimates were then adjusted to include all adults in the UK. Because undiagnosed HIV prevalence estimates were not available for each of the behavioural categories, the UAPMP prevalence estimates were adjusted using available data to provide the best estimates for each group.

RESULTS

It is estimated that 53,000 individuals are infected with HIV in the UK in 2003, of whom 27% were unaware of their infection. Of the total of 53,000, an estimated 26,000 were among heterosexually infected and 24,500 among MSM.

CONCLUSION

The direct method uses an explicit framework and data from different components of the HIV surveillance system to estimate HIV prevalence in the UK, allowing for a comprehensive picture of the epidemic.

Modelling the force of infection for hepatitis B and hepatitis C in injecting drug users in England and Wales

Background

Injecting drug use is a key risk factor, for several infections of public health importance, especially hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C (HCV). In England and Wales, where less than 1% of the population are likely to be injecting drug users (IDUs), approximately 38% of laboratory reports of HBV, and 95% of HCV reports are attributed to injecting drug use.

Methods

Voluntary unlinked anonymous surveys have been performed on IDUs in contact with specialist agencies throughout England and Wales. Since 1990 more than 20,000 saliva samples from current IDUs have been tested for markers of infection for HBV, HCV testing has been included since 1998. The analysis here considers those IDUs tested for HBV and HCV (n = 5,682) from 1998–2003. This study derives maximum likelihood estimates of the force of infection (the rate at which susceptible IDUs acquire infection) for HBV and HCV in the IDU population and their trends over time and injecting career length. The presence of individual heterogeneity of risk behaviour and background HBV prevalence due to routes of transmission other than injecting are also considered.

Results

For both HBV and HCV, IDUs are at greatest risk from infection in their first year of injecting (Forces of infection in new initiates 1999–2003: HBV = 0.1076 95% C.I: 0.0840–0.1327 HCV = 0.1608 95% C.I: 0.1314–0.1942) compared to experienced IDUs (Force of infection in experienced IDUs 1999–2003: HBV = 0.0353 95% C.I: 0.0198–0.0596, HCV = 0.0526 95% C.I: 0.0310–0.0863) although independently of this there is evidence of heterogeneity of risk behaviour with a small number of IDUs at increased risk of infection. No trends in the FOI over time were detected. There was only limited evidence of background HBV infection due to factors other than injecting.

Conclusion

The models highlight the need to increase interventions that target new initiates to injecting to reduce the transmission of blood-borne viruses. Although from the evidence here, identification of those individuals that engage in heightened at-risk behaviour may also help in planning effective interventions. The data and methods described here may provide a baseline for monitoring the success of public health interventions.

HIV transmission in part of the US prison system: implications for Europe

A study in the United States has shown that HIV transmission has been occurring within the prison system in the state of Georgia.

Modelling the hepatitis B vaccination programme in prisons

A vaccination programme offering hepatitis B (HBV) vaccine at reception into prison has been introduced into selected prisons in England and Wales. Over the coming years it is anticipated this vaccination programme will be extended. A model has been developed to assess the potential impact of the programme on the vaccination coverage of prisoners, ex-prisoners, and injecting drug users (IDUs). Under a range of coverage scenarios, the model predicts the change over time in the vaccination status of new entrants to prison, current prisoners and IDUs in the community. The model predicts that at baseline in 2012 57% of the IDU population will be vaccinated with up to 72% being vaccinated depending on the vaccination scenario implemented. These results are sensitive to the size of the IDU population in England and Wales and the average time served by an IDU during each prison visit. IDUs that do not receive HBV vaccine in the community are at increased risk from HBV infection. The HBV vaccination programme in prisons is an effective way of vaccinating this hard-to-reach population although vaccination coverage on prison reception must be increased to achieve this.

Monitoring the effectiveness of HIV and STI prevention initiatives in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland: where are we now?

Primary and secondary prevention are essential components of the response to HIV and sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We present findings from nationally implemented HIV/STI prevention interventions. In 2003, of those attending STI clinics at least 64% of men who have sex with men (MSM) and 55% of heterosexuals accepted a confidential HIV test; 88% of all HIV infections in women giving birth in England were diagnosed before delivery; 85% of MSM eligible for hepatitis B vaccination received a first dose of vaccine at their first STI clinic attendance; 74% of STI clinic attendees for emergency appointments, and 20% of those for routine appointments were seen within 48 hours of initiating an appointment; the National Chlamydia Screening Programme in England found a positivity of 10% and 13% among young asymptomatic women and men, respectively. Prevention initiatives have seen recent successes in limiting further HIV/STI transmission. However, more work is required if current levels of transmission are to be reduced.

Distribution of molecular subtypes within Salmonella enterica serotype Enteritidis phage type 4 and S. Typhimurium definitive phage type 104 in nine European countries, 2000-2004: results of an international multi-centre study

This study investigates the distribution of pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) profiles within Salmonella enterica serotype Enteritidis phage type (PT) 4 and S. Typhimurium definitive phage type (DT) 104, from cases of human infection in nine European countries from 2000 to 2004. Isolates were subtyped using standardized methods and gel images submitted by each participating country to the coordinating centre (Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, London, UK), where they were entered into a central database, developed within BioNumerics software, and designated using an agreed nomenclature. S. Enteritidis PT4 (n=3637) was differentiated into 38 different profiles. Simpson's index of diversity (D) of profiles ranged from 0.2 to 0.4. Profile SENTXB.0001 represented at least 80% of all profiles in each country. S. Typhimurium DT104 (n=1202) was differentiated into 28 different profile types. Simpson's D was at least 0.6 in all countries except in Austria and Italy. In both these countries over 74% of S. Typhimurium DT104 profiles were STYMXB.0013. Profile STYMXB.0061, was predominant in Denmark, Spain, Finland and England and Wales where it represented between 36% and 45% of profiles. Profile STYMXB.0001 represented nearly half of all profiles in Scotland and 23% in England and Wales. PFGE is proving useful for further discrimination within S. Enteritidis PT4 and S. Typhimurium DT104. Ascertainment of international outbreaks involving common serotypes and phage types may be increased by the timely pooling of PFGE profiles within a central database readily accessible to all participating countries.

Epidemiology of HIV among black and minority ethnic men who have sex with men in England and Wales

OBJECTIVES

To examine the epidemiology of HIV among black and minority ethnic (BME) men who have sex with men (MSM) in England and Wales (E&W).

METHODS

Ethnicity data from two national HIV/AIDS surveillance systems were reviewed (1997-2002 inclusive), providing information on new HIV diagnoses and those accessing NHS HIV treatment and care services. In addition, undiagnosed HIV prevalence among MSM attending 14 genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinics participating in the Unlinked Anonymous Prevalence Monitoring Programme and having routine syphilis serology was examined by world region of birth.

RESULTS

Between 1997 and 2002, 1040 BME MSM were newly diagnosed with HIV in E&W, representing 12% of all new diagnoses reported among MSM. Of the 1040 BME MSM, 27% were black Caribbean, 12% black African, 10% black other, 8% Indian/Pakistani/Bangladeshi, and 44% other/mixed. Where reported (n = 395), 58% of BME MSM were probably infected in the United Kingdom. An estimated 7.4% (approximate 95% CI: 4.4% to 12.5%) of BME MSM aged 16-44 in E&W were living with diagnosed HIV in 2002 compared with 3.2% (approximate 95% CI: 2.6% to 3.9%) of white MSM (p<0.001). Of Caribbean born MSM attending GUM clinics between 1997 and 2002, the proportion with undiagnosed HIV infection was 15.8% (95% CI: 11.7% to 20.8%), while among MSM born in other regions it remained below 6.0%.

CONCLUSIONS

Between 1997-2002, BME MSM accounted for just over one in 10 new HIV diagnoses among MSM in E & W; more than half probably acquired their infection in the United Kingdom. In 2002, the proportion of BME MSM living with diagnosed HIV in E&W was significantly higher than white MSM. Undiagnosed HIV prevalence in Caribbean born MSM was high. These data confirm the need to remain alert to the sexual health needs and evolving epidemiology of HIV among BME MSM in E&W.

Hepatitis A vaccination--a prison-based solution for a community-based outbreak?

In December 2001, an increase in cases of hepatitis A was observed in South Yorkshire. Cases were predominantly young males who reported injecting drug use. A community-based vaccination programme was introduced in November 2002, but new cases continued to occur. In March 2003, a vaccination campaign was implemented in the local prison for a four-week period. One thousand two hundred and thirty-six (91%) prisoners were vaccinated. Two thirds (895/1,363) of the prisoners came from the area affected by the outbreak and 52% (465/895) reported injecting drugs. The median age of injectors was 25 years. Notifications of cases of hepatitis A from South Yorkshire ceased in August 2003. Although on this occasion the prison vaccination campaign was probably implemented too late to have had a significant impact on the local outbreak, a large number of young male injectors from the local area were successfully vaccinated. This suggests that a prison-based intervention offers a potentially effective way of immunising the IDU population and interrupting a community-based outbreak.

Increasing hepatitis B vaccine coverage in prisons in England and Wales

The most frequently reported risk factor for hepatitis B infection in England and Wales is injecting drug use (38%). Since approximately 61% of injecting drug users (IDUs) had been imprisoned and less than 40% had received hepatitis B vaccine, a prison based hepatitis B vaccination programme was set up in 2001. At the 42 establishments participating in this study, all prisoners were offered vaccine at reception. Prisoners over 18 years were vaccinated using the 0, 7 and 21 days schedule and those under 18 years, using the 0, 1 and 2 months schedule. As far as possible a fourth dose was given to all after 12 months. In 2003, 14,163 prisoners received at least one dose of vaccine and altogether 26,265 doses were administered. A further 1111 prisoners reported they had already been vaccinated against hepatitis B. The median vaccine coverage rate was 17% (range 0-94%). Despite low coverage levels, the vaccination programme in prisons can be said to have vaccinated a sizable number of young, male prisoners, a group that have previously been shown to be at high risk of infection. The prisons which achieved vaccine coverage levels over 50% had designated nursing staff who ran the vaccination clinics.

Recent trends in HIV and other STIs in the United Kingdom: data to the end of 2002

Sexual health in the United Kingdom has deteriorated in recent years with further increases in HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) reported in 2002. This paper describes results from the available surveillance data in the United Kingdom from the Health Protection Agency and its national collaborators. The data sources range from voluntary reports of HIV/AIDS from clinicians, CD4 cell count monitoring, a national census of individuals living with HIV, and the Unlinked Anonymous Programme, to statutory reports of STIs from genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinics and enhanced STI surveillance systems. In 2002, an estimated 49500 adults aged over 15 years were living with HIV in the United Kingdom, of whom 31% were unaware of their infection. Diagnoses of new HIV infections have doubled from 1997 to 2002, mainly driven by heterosexuals who acquired their infection abroad. HIV transmission also continues within the United Kingdom, particularly among homo/bisexual men who, in 2002, accounted for 80% of all newly diagnosed HIV infections acquired in the United Kingdom. New diagnoses of syphilis have increased eightfold, and diagnoses of chlamydia and gonorrhoea have doubled from 1997 to 2002 overall; STI rates disproportionately affect homo/bisexual men and young people. Effective surveillance is essential in the provision of timely information on the changing epidemiology of HIV and other STIs; this information is necessary for the targeting of prevention efforts and through providing baseline information against which progress towards targets can be monitored.

Black Caribbean adults with HIV in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland: an emerging epidemic?

BACKGROUND

HIV is now well established in the Caribbean, with prevalence in several countries being surpassed only by those of sub-Saharan Africa. Continuing inward migration from the Caribbean and a high incidence of some bacterial STIs among Britain's black Caribbean communities, suggests a considerable potential for HIV spread.

METHODS

Data from three national HIV/AIDS surveillance systems were reviewed, providing information on new HIV diagnoses, numbers accessing treatment and care services, and HIV prevalence.

RESULTS

Between 1997 and 2001, 528 black Caribbean adults were newly diagnosed with HIV; 62 new diagnoses in 1997, rising to 176 in 2001. Probable heterosexual acquisition accounted for 335 (63%) infections (161 (48%) males, 174 females), and sex between men 171 (32%). Infection was acquired both in the Caribbean and in the United Kingdom. Numbers of black Caribbeans accessing treatment and care services more than doubled between 1997 (294) and 2001 (691). In 2001, 528 (76%) black Caribbeans accessing services were London residents. Among the Caribbean born previously undiagnosed heterosexuals, HIV prevalence was 0.7%; among men who have sex with men (MSM) it was 10.4%. Of those born in the Caribbean, 73% of male heterosexuals, 50% of female heterosexuals, and 65% of MSM who were previously undiagnosed left the clinic unaware of their HIV infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Numbers of black Caribbean adults newly diagnosed and accessing treatment and care services in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland increased between 1997 and 2001. Despite a high prevalence of diagnosed bacterial STIs, prevalence among Caribbean born heterosexuals remains low, but it is high among MSM. Surveillance data highlight the need for targeted HIV prevention among black Caribbeans.

Is HIV incidence increasing in homo/bisexual men attending GUM clinics in England, Wales and Northern Ireland?

Laboratory recognition of recent infection allows HIV incidence to be monitored. We have determined HIV incidence in homo/bisexual men attending 15 genitourinary medicine clinics (GUM) across England, Wales and Northern Ireland (EW&NI). The estimated HIV incidence for 2002 was 3.5%, an increase from the 2.5% incidence seen in 2000 and 2001. Incidence was higher in London than outside, though outside London the overall incidence has recently increased over two-fold from 1% in 2001 to 2.5% in 2002. Throughout the UK HIV incidence may have risen in homo/bisexual men attending GUM clinics.

Epidemiology of HIV in young people in England, Wales and Northern Ireland

We describe the epidemiology of HIV among young people (15-24 years) in England, Wales and Northern Ireland (E, W&NI) between 1997 and 2001 inclusive. Rising rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and 'risk' behaviours suggest that they are at increased risk of acquiring HIV. Data from three national surveillance systems are reviewed. Over the period, 1,624 young people were diagnosed with HIV (10% of all new diagnoses). In 1997 there were 254 new diagnoses, rising to 493 in 2001, a 1.9-fold increase. Of the total, 890 (55%) were heterosexually infected (81% female), 631 through sex between men, and the remainder via other routes. Where probable country of infection was reported (1,139), 618 (54%) were infected in Africa and 362 (32%) in the UK. In 1997, 675 young people accessed HIV-related services, rising to 975 in 2001: an increase of 1.4 fold. In 2001, for 34 of those accessing services the likely route of infection was perinatal. Between 1997 and 2001 inclusive, HIV prevalence among young heterosexual genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinic attendees was 0.17% (193/116,443), and for young homo/bisexual males, 3.4% (174/5,086). Sixty-five percent (104/159) of previously undiagnosed HIV-infected heterosexuals and 47% (51/108) of previously undiagnosed HIV-infected homo/bisexual males left the clinic unaware of their infection. In 2000 and 2001, overall prevalence was 0.11% (77/70,455) among young women giving birth. HIV diagnoses in young people have increased in recent years, while HIV prevalence among young people attending GUM clinics and giving birth has remained low. However, with dramatic increases in chlamydia rates among young women over the past decade, and the highest rates of gonorrhoea and concurrent partnerships among young people, concern about the potential for HIV transmission remains.

Behavioural surveillance: the value of national coordination

Behavioural surveillance programmes have enabled the description of population patterns of risk behaviours for STI and HIV transmission and aid in the understanding of how epidemics of STI are generated. They have been instrumental in helping to refine public health interventions and inform the targeting of sexual health promotion and disease control strategies. The formalization and coordination of behavioural surveillance in England and Wales could optimise our ability to measure the impact of interventions and health promotion strategies on behaviour. This will be particularly useful for monitoring the progress towards specific disease control targets set in the Department of Health's new Sexual Health and HIV Strategy.

An outbreak of serious illness and death among injecting drug users in England during 2000

An outbreak of serious illness and death occurred in injecting drug users during 2000 in Scotland, Ireland and England. National and international collaboration was necessary for the investigation and management of this outbreak. In England and Wales active case-finding was initiated, coupled with standardised data collection and microbiological investigation of cases. Twenty-six definite or probable cases were identified in England between 1 April and 31 Aug. 2000; 17 of these occurred in the North. The overall case fatality was 50% (13/26). The principal apparent risk factor was a history of intramuscular or subcutaneous injection of heroin and the limited duration of the outbreak suggested that the problem might have been related to a particular supply of heroin. Clostridium novyi was isolated from two English cases. Taken in conjunction with contemporaneous microbiological and epidemiological results from Scottish and Irish cases, the probable aetiology for this outbreak was infection with C. novyi associated with both a particular supply of heroin and the method of preparation and injection used. A 'toolkit' was distributed in Sept. 2000 to all Consultants for Communicable Disease Control in England and Wales to assist them with the ongoing surveillance, investigation and management of this condition. Lessons learned have been used to produce guidance for the investigation and management of outbreaks of unexplained serious illness of possible infective aetiology.

Roles and functions of a European Union Public Health Centre for Communicable Diseases and other threats to health

An international consensus has been reached that a European Union (EU) Technical Coordination Structure (TCS) for communicable diseases is needed to improve Europe s future response to international communicable disease threats within and beyond its boundaries. After the American events of September 11 2001 and the deliberate releases of anthrax, the EU created a Health Security Committee, adopted a civil protection decision, and established for 18 months a team to develop responses for deliberate releases of biological and chemical agents. These two initiatives, the network s approach and health security work, must converge into a single stream addressing health protection for the people of Europe. They could be combined into a European Centre for Communicable Diseases that is planned to become active by 2005.

Assessing the impact of national anti-HIV sexual health campaigns: trends in the transmission of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections in England

OBJECTIVE

To assess the impact of the sexual component of AIDS and HIV campaigns on transmission of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs).

DESIGN

Comparison of time series data.

SETTING

England, 1971-1999.

OUTCOME MEASURES

HIV transmission and diagnoses among men who have sex with men (MSMs), rates of attendances and specific STI diagnoses (per 100 000 total population) at genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinics.

RESULTS

Awareness of AIDS and campaigns in 1983-4 among homosexual men coincided with substantial declines in transmission of HIV and diagnoses of syphilis among MSMs. During general population campaigns in 1986-7 new GUM clinic attendances requiring treatment fell by 117/10(5) in men and 42/10(5) in women. Rates for gonorrhoea fell by 81/10(5) and 43/10(5) and genital herpes by 6/10(5) and 4/10(5), respectively. Previous rises in genital wart rates were interrupted, while rates of attendances not requiring treatment (the "worried well") increased by 47/10(5) and 58/10(5) for men and women, respectively. Since 1987 diagnoses of HIV among MSMs have not declined, averaging 1300-1400 annually. Following a period of unchanging rates there have been substantial increases in GUM attendances requiring treatment, notably for gonorrhoea, syphilis, and viral STIs since 1995.

CONCLUSIONS

Self help initiatives and awareness among homosexual men in 1983-4 contributed significantly to a fall in HIV transmission among MSMs, and the general campaigns of 1986-7 were associated with similar effects on all STI transmission. Both effects seem to have occurred through changing sexual behaviour, and probably contributed to the UK's low national HIV prevalence. Bacterial STI incidence has increased significantly since 1995 and there is no evidence that recent prevention initiatives have reduced HIV transmission among MSMs, hence sexual health initiatives need to be comprehensively reinvigorated in England.

Test of HIV incidence shows continuing HIV transmission in homosexual/bisexual men in England and Wales

It has been suggested that HIV incidence will decrease with the increased use of antiretroviral Therapy (ART) in HIV infected homosexual/bisexual men. HIV incidence was measured using a sensitive/less sensitive assay technique, at a time when combination ART was widespread. The Serological Testing Algorithm for Recent HIV Seroconversion (STARHS)13 technique was applied to syphilis test specimens collected from homosexual/bisexual men attending 15 sexually transmitted infections (STI) clinics which participated in an unlinked anonymous serosurvey of HIV infection during 1998. The HIV incidence rate was adjusted to compensate for patients who had a repeat syphilis test within the same year. Leftover syphilis test sera from 6202 men had been unlinked and anonymised, of which 415 were HIV positive. Sera from 412 (99.3%) patients were available. The STARHS assay showed 62 to have been recently infected with HIV (approximately in the last four months), giving an incidence of 3.33% per annum (95% CI: 2.06%-5.27%). The highest incidence was seen in those aged 35-44 years. About 46% of all HIV-infected homosexual/bisexual men were probably receiving combination ART at this time. If 10% of those on treatment were misclassified as recent infections the incidence would have been 2.58% per annum (95% CI: 1.53%-4.24%). In homosexual/bisexual men having syphilis tests at STI clinics in the UK during 1998 the incidence of HIV infection was between two and three per hundred per year. Treatment with combination ART of almost a half of homosexual/bisexual men who are HIV infected in the population is compatible with appreciable continuing HIV transmission among those at high behavioural risk. Public health surveillance systems for those at high risk for HIV infection should, as soon as possible, incorporate the STARHS methodology for monitoring recent HIV incidence.

Failure to vaccinate current injecting drug users against hepatitis B in England and Wales

In most industrialised countries the elimination of hepatitis B infection is highly reliant on effective vaccine delivery to injecting drug users. This paper highlights the very poor vaccine coverage achieved in England and Wales in the ten years since this problem was officially recognised and targeted. This is despite the existence of a comprehensive and well-utilised network of specialist services for injecting drug users.

International surveillance networks and principles of collaboration

In the face of the multiplication and the development of international surveillance networks for communicable diseases, many questions on the transmission of personal data and information arise. The confidential nature of shared data and their disclosure internationally within and outside the network are therefore potential sources for conflicts. To resolve these problems, Enter-net developed its 'Collaboration Principles' intended to apply to all the participants of the network and to all others potentially involved. These principles propose solutions to questions related to the access to databases created within the framework of the network, to the quality and confidentiality of circulating data, to the individual responsibility in the identification of an incriminated product in case of an outbreak, and even to the transmission of information outside the network. These principles, which are to be regularly reviewed, are primarily aimed at optimising early detection and management of foodborne outbreaks, and at taking the necessary measures for public health. Considering the nature of the problems, however, some of these principles are also of relevance to other surveillance networks.

Prevalence of hepatitis C among injection drug users in England and Wales: is harm reduction working?

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to establish the prevalence of hepatitis C antibodies (anti-HCV) and hepatitis B antibodies (anti-HBc) among injection drug users in England and Wales.

METHODS

A voluntary cross-sectional survey collected oral fluid samples and behavioral information; 2203 injectors were recruited through drug agencies, and 758 were recruited in the community.

RESULTS

Prevalence was 30% for anti-HCV, 21% for anti-HBc, and 0.9% for HIV antibodies. Anti-HCV prevalence rates were significantly greater among those with longer injecting careers, those in older age groups, those residing in London, those recruited in drug agencies, those positive for anti-HBc, and those with a previous voluntary HIV test.

CONCLUSIONS

Anti-HCV prevalence rates among injectors in England and Wales, where comprehensive harm reduction programs exist, are lower than rates in other industrialized countries.

What a test for recent infection might reveal about HIV incidence in England and Wales

BACKGROUND

A laboratory method has been developed that detects recent HIV infection and allows incidence to be estimated by testing single stored antibody-positive specimens. A theoretical exploration of the method's surveillance utility was carried out.

METHODS

Using various data sources, HIV incidence rates were postulated. The confidence intervals (CI) for these postulated incidences were calculated using the expected number of recent infections for each postulated incidence, the actual number tested for HIV, and the known number of HIV-1 positives. A test for trend was used to determine when an important change in incidence could be recognized.

RESULTS

If the incidence was 5% per annum (p.a.) in homosexual/bisexual men attending sexually transmitted diseases (STD) clinics in London, 64 recent infections would be expected in the 392 HIV-seropositive specimens and, if observed, would result in a 95% CI of 3.1-7.9% p.a. for the incidence rate. An incidence of 1% p.a. in pregnant women would be most unlikely as this would require detection of 193 recent infections, 26 more than the total 167 HIV-seropositive specimens found in 1997. In African women attending STD clinics in London, 30% of prevalent infections would be classified as recent if the incidence was 5% p.a. Further, if the incidence in homosexual/bisexual men were to fall by 50% over 3 years, a decrease of this magnitude would be recognized as significant within 2 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The detuned assay will increase the information from HIV serosurveys even where prevalence and incidence are relatively low. Existing surveillance systems should be redesigned to take full advantage of the method.

Prevalence of HIV, hepatitis B, and hepatitis C antibodies in prisoners in England and Wales: a national survey

Prisoners in eight of the 135 prisons in England and Wales were surveyed in 1997 and 1998 to study the prevalence of and risk factors for transmission of bloodborne viruses in prison. Subjects voluntarily completed a risk factor questionnaire and provided oral fluid specimens for unlinked anonymous testing for the presence of antibodies to HIV, hepatitis C virus (HCV), and the core antigen of hepatitis B virus (HBc). Almost 8% (4778) of the total of 60,561 prisoners were eligible and four fifths (3942) of those eligible took part. Among all those tested (3930) 0.4% (14) were positive for anti-HIV, 8% (308) for anti-HBc, and 7% (293) for anti-HCV (the anti-HBc and anti-HCV prevalences were not adjusted for assay sensitivities of 82% and 80%, respectively). Twenty-four per cent (777/3176) of adult prisoners reported ever having injected drugs, 30% of whom (224/747) reported having injected in prison. Three quarters of those who injected in prison (167/224) shared needles or syringes. Among adult injecting drug users, 0.5% (4/775) had anti-HIV, 31% (240/775) anti-HCV, and 20% (158/775) anti-HBc. The presence of anti-HCV and anti-HBc was associated with injecting inside prison and number of previous times in prison. The results suggest that hepatitis viruses are probably being transmitted in prisons through sharing non-sterile injecting equipment and that a risk of HIV transmission exists. Harm minimisation measures for the 6% of prisoners who continue to inject while in prison should be strengthened.

The public health applications of unlinked anonymous seroprevalence monitoring for HIV in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

In order to monitor the epidemiology of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), integrated national programmes of unlinked anonymous (blinded) HIV sero-surveys have taken place in the UK since 1990.

METHODS

The programmes comprise multi-centre surveys primarily using specimens gathered routinely for screening groups of patients. All specimens are irreversibly unlinked from patient identifiers before being tested.

RESULTS

The surveys have met their prime aim of providing at low cost minimally biased estimates of current HIV prevalence and trends in sentinel populations. The surveys have remained acceptable to professionals and the public, being successfully implemented without breech of their founding principles. The findings have had major public health applications, have influenced HIV policy and funding, been used for monitoring the spread of HIV, for targeting and evaluating health promotion and improving projections of severe HIV disease. The surveys have detected substantial prevalence rises and under-diagnosis of HIV which would otherwise have been unrecognised. The programmes' value is being increased by sub-typing HIV-1 isolates, capturing additional demographic information to detect spread among minority groups. The same specimens are used for monitoring other infections (initially hepatitis A, B and C).

CONCLUSIONS

Monitoring HIV and other infections through unlinked anonymous HIV surveillance has become an integral essential part of national HIV and AIDS surveillance. Although it has unique applications the value of unlinked anonymous surveillance is maximized when used in conjunction with behavioural data, information from HIV and AIDS reporting, and behavioural data and surveillance for other sexually transmitted infections.

An age-period-cohort analysis of 50,875 AIDS cases among injecting drug users in Europe

BACKGROUND

The long average incubation time from HIV infection to AIDS makes it difficult to estimate recent HIV transmission from AIDS incidence data. Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis can separate out the effects of age, calendar time and birth cohort to provide a clearer picture of transmission trends.

METHODS

AIDS incidence data from 1981 to 1994 among intravenous drug users (IDU) for 12 Western European countries were used. Yearly incidences per 100,000 population or 100,000 person-years were calculated by age at diagnosis and 5-year birth cohort (1950-1954, 1955-1959, 1960-1964, 1965-1969 and 1970-1974), and corrected for reporting delay. Incidence patterns were compared between birth cohorts and countries.

RESULTS

For most countries the impact was greatest on the cohort born 1960-1964. Comparing incidence patterns in the 1965-1969 to 1960-1964 cohorts suggest the epidemic has plateaued at low to intermediate levels in Austria, Greece and the North-Western European countries, and at high levels in France, Italy and Switzerland. For most countries transmission amongst the 1970-1974 as compared to the 1965-1969 cohorts could not be assessed due to small numbers and short follow-up time. In Spain the epidemic was uncontrolled with a high incidence among recent birth cohorts. In Portugal the epidemic was still at an early and expanding phase.

CONCLUSIONS

The APC analysis revealed large country differences in the dynamics of the HIV/AIDS epidemic among IDU. Full interpretation of these differences is dependent on information from other sources about the local public health response and trends in drug injecting behaviours. Earlier introduction of the virus and higher prevalence of injecting drug use may explain some of the generally higher incidence in Southern European countries, but the larger part of it is most likely explained by local characteristics of drug users, such as younger age and more frequent sharing of needles and syringes, and a less effective public health response.

Poor hepatitis B vaccine coverage in injecting drug users: England, 1995 and 1996

Self-reported data on vaccination status collected in 1995 and 1996 from seven of the 39 drug agencies in England that took part in the unlinked anonymous HIV prevalence monitoring programme of injecting drug users were analysed to estimate hepatitis B vaccine coverage in this population. Twenty-seven per cent (374/1366) of injecting drug users (IDUs) reported vaccination against hepatitis B and 13% (172) reported having received three doses of vaccine. Eighteen per cent of the IDUs who reported vaccination (66/374) were found to have a marker in their saliva of past/current hepatitis B infection (antibody to hepatitis B core (anti-HBc)) compared with 23% (232/992) of those unvaccinated. Over half (760/1366) of all IDUs tested reported not having been vaccinated against hepatitis B were negative for anti-HBc, and therefore remained susceptible to infection. Targeted vaccination for IDUs against hepatitis B in England has had little success so far, suggesting that enhanced or alternative strategies need to be adopted.

The global impact of HIV infection and disease

Patterns of HIV infection and disease are changing. HIV will soon enter the top five causes of death worldwide and is now believed to cause more deaths than malaria. Commonwealth countries account for around 60% of prevalent HIV infections worldwide. Around half of all global HIV transmissions are to people under 25 years of age. HIV is lowering life expectancy and reversing gains in child survival in east and central Africa. The incidence and prevalence of HIV infection have increased enormously in southern Africa recently. A more generalised pattern of heterosexual HIV transmission is emerging in parts of South and South East Asia. Injecting drug use and related HIV transmission is increasing in resource-poor countries. Countries where HIV prevalence is low but rising and there are high levels of other STIs offer particular opportunities for early intervention, as it is easier to intervene against HIV when it is entering a country than when it has become established. In countries with weak family and social networks there is inadequate care for the increasing numbers of parentless children. HIV is prejudicing tuberculosis control programme in most African countries and will do the same in Asia. AIDS mortality has fallen in industrialised countries but the prevalence of HIV infection and treatment costs are increasing. Countries that have used multisectoral approaches at an early stage and have had political support for HIV prevention early in their epidemics have been able to limit transmission. Others, intervening later, have been able to reduce transmission. Surveillance methods need to adapt to changing patterns of infection and disease.

New therapy explains the fall in AIDS incidence with a substantial rise in number of persons on treatment expected

BACKGROUND

A marked decline in the number of reported AIDS cases has been observed in the United Kingdom, as in many industrialized countries, in 1996 and 1997. In England and Wales, a large reduction in AIDS cases has been recorded among homosexual and bisexual men.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate, using data from the homosexuals and bisexuals in England and Wales as an example, possible explanations for the above decline such as the effects of new anti-retroviral therapies, or a decrease in the incidence of HIV in recent years.

METHODS

A multistage model of HIV infection, HIV diagnosis, treatment and of AIDS diagnosis has been used to represent the pattern of HIV and AIDS incidence in homosexual and bisexual men in England and Wales up to the end of 1995. Scenarios for the post-1995 period were examined under different assumptions about changes in HIV incidence in recent years and treatment uptake and efficacy.

RESULTS

The fall in the incidence of AIDS is unlikely to be the result of a reduction in HIV transmission during the 1990s. The most plausible explanation for this fall is the effect of new, more effective, anti-retroviral therapies. As a consequence, the number of individuals on treatment is likely to increase by 50 to 100% compared with the pre-1996 levels by the year 2001. Also, if the effect of the new therapies has a limited duration, or the use of such therapies is not well tolerated, the incidence of AIDS will rise again in the near future.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings indicate that a substantial workload increase is under way for the healthcare system, and reiterate the need for measures to reduce HIV transmission as a means of bringing about a sustainable change in the incidence of AIDS.

The risk of infection with HIV and hepatitis B in individuals who inject steroids in England and Wales

Data on injecting anabolic steroid users, within the national Unlinked Anonymous HIV Prevalence Monitoring Survey of injecting drug users (IDUs) were analysed to determine their risk of acquiring blood borne viruses. One hundred and forty-nine participants who had injected anabolic steroids in the previous month were identified from 1991-6, contributing 1.4% of all participation episodes in the survey. Rates of needle and syringe sharing by steroid users were low. Three of the 149 (2.0%) had anti-HBc and none had anti-HIV in their salivary specimens. The prevalence of anti-HBc in steroid injectors was significantly lower than in heroin injectors, 275/1509 (18%) (P < 0.001), or in amphetamine injectors, 28/239 (12%) (P < 0.001). The risk of blood borne virus transmission amongst these steroid injectors is low, probably due to hygienic use of injecting equipment and low levels of sharing. It is important to distinguish steroid injectors from other IDUs because they are a distinct group in terms of lifestyle and injecting practice.

Indirect methods for estimating prevalent HIV infections: adults in England and Wales at the end of 1993

Two indirect methods were used to estimate the point prevalence of HIV infection in England and Wales at the end of 1993 using data on diagnosed HIV infections, AIDS cases, HIV-related deaths and HIV testing behaviour from unlinked anonymous surveys. The methods estimated the proportion of all prevalent HIV infections that diagnosed infections represented. Most of those exposed to HIV infection through injecting drug use or sexual intercourse between men had had their infections diagnosed compared to less than half of those exposed through heterosexual intercourse. The total estimated number of prevalent infections was 22,350 for the diagnosis interval method and 20,540 for the test history method, and about 56-57% of these were in homo/bisexual men. These indirect methods are cheap and simple applications of surveillance data which provide estimates that compare favourably with those produced by more complex methods.

Unusual HIV transmissions through blood contact: analysis of cases reported in the United Kingdom to December 1997

It is important to establish the likely route of infection for all reported HIV infected individuals if the HIV epidemic is to be understood. Investigating routes of infection may bring unusual infection routes to light. Steps have been taken in the United Kingdom (UK) to establish the likely mode of HIV acquisition for everyone reported as infected. If an initial report is incomplete the clinician caring for the patient is asked for relevant information. If further information is needed, and an interview is feasible and acceptable to both the clinician and the patient, information is collected from the patient through face-to-face semistructured interview. Such follow up has identified 19 cases (among 34,000 records of individuals with HIV and/or AIDS for which probable routes of infection have established) who seem to have acquired HIV infection in unusual circumstances. Seven of the 19 cases described in this paper are thought to have acquired HIV infection in the UK, two in Spain, and ten in countries with a high prevalence of HIV infection. This paper describes the circumstances in which HIV transmission is believed to have occurred.