Life expectancy associated with different ages at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in high-income countries: 23 million person-years of observation

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly, particularly among younger age groups. Estimates suggest that people with diabetes die, on average, 6 years earlier than people without diabetes. We aimed to provide reliable estimates of the associations between age at diagnosis of diabetes and all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and reductions in life expectancy.

METHODS

For this observational study, we conducted a combined analysis of individual-participant data from 19 high-income countries using two large-scale data sources: the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (96 cohorts, median baseline years 1961-2007, median latest follow-up years 1980-2013) and the UK Biobank (median baseline year 2006, median latest follow-up year 2020). We calculated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality according to age at diagnosis of diabetes using data from 1 515 718 participants, in whom deaths were recorded during 23·1 million person-years of follow-up. We estimated cumulative survival by applying age-specific HRs to age-specific death rates from 2015 for the USA and the EU.

FINDINGS

For participants with diabetes, we observed a linear dose-response association between earlier age at diagnosis and higher risk of all-cause mortality compared with participants without diabetes. HRs were 2·69 (95% CI 2·43-2·97) when diagnosed at 30-39 years, 2·26 (2·08-2·45) at 40-49 years, 1·84 (1·72-1·97) at 50-59 years, 1·57 (1·47-1·67) at 60-69 years, and 1·39 (1·29-1·51) at 70 years and older. HRs per decade of earlier diagnosis were similar for men and women. Using death rates from the USA, a 50-year-old individual with diabetes died on average 14 years earlier when diagnosed aged 30 years, 10 years earlier when diagnosed aged 40 years, or 6 years earlier when diagnosed aged 50 years than an individual without diabetes. Using EU death rates, the corresponding estimates were 13, 9, or 5 years earlier.

INTERPRETATION

Every decade of earlier diagnosis of diabetes was associated with about 3-4 years of lower life expectancy, highlighting the need to develop and implement interventions that prevent or delay the onset of diabetes and to intensify the treatment of risk factors among young adults diagnosed with diabetes.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, and Health Data Research UK.

The effect of ziltivekimab on the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio: analysis from RESCUE

Background

The neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), derived from the complete blood count, independently predicts atherosclerotic events and is a potential biomarker for residual inflammatory risk. A previous study showed that interleukin (IL)-1β inhibition reduces the NLR, but whether inhibition with IL-6, a cytokine downstream of IL-1, also lowers the NLR is unknown.

Purpose

To evaluate whether ziltivekimab, a monoclonal antibody targeting the IL-6 ligand, dose-dependently lowers the NLR compared to placebo.

Methods

The phase II RESCUE trial randomized 264 patients with moderate to severe chronic kidney disease (CKD) and high-sensitivity CRP (hsCRP) >2mg/L in a 1:1:1:1 ratio to placebo or ziltivekimab 7.5 mg, 15 mg, and 30 mg subcutaneously once every four weeks. As previously reported, the trial met its primary endpoint as demonstrated by hsCRP reductions of 4% in the placebo group as compared to 77%, 88%, and 92% at 12 weeks in the ziltivekimab 7.5, 15, and 30 mg groups, respectively. Using RESCUE trial data, we further evaluated the percent change from baseline in the NLR at 12 weeks and sought evidence of correlation between any observed changes in the NLR with changes in other measured biomarkers.

Results

Ziltivekimab dose-dependently reduced the NLR starting at week one and sustained through week 12 (Table). The median change in the NLR at 12 weeks, the primary pre-specified endpoint, was −13.5% in the 7.5 mg group, −14.3% in the 15 mg group, and −22.4% in the 30 mg group compared to 1.56% in the placebo group. The estimated treatment difference was −14.6% (p=0.004), −15.3% (p=0.004), and −23.6% (p<0.0001) in the ziltivekimab 7.5, 15, and 30 mg groups respectively. These changes were driven largely by reductions in the absolute neutrophil count with minimal change in lymphocyte count. The change in NLR with ziltivekimab correlated modestly with the changes in hsCRP (R=0.26, p=0.0006), fibrinogen (R=0.18, p=0.02), and haptoglobin (R=0.17, p=0.03), but not serum amyloid A, ApoA1, ApoB, ApoB/ApoA ratio, or traditional risk markers.

Conclusions

IL-6 inhibition with ziltivekimab lowers the NLR. The ongoing ZEUS cardiovascular (CV) outcomes trial will assess whether ziltivekimab can reduce CV event rates among individuals with stage 3 to 4 CKD, known atherosclerotic disease, and elevated hsCRP. If ziltivekimab reduces CV risk, it would provide further evidence for critical inter-relationships between bone marrow function and atherothrombosis.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private company. Main funding source(s): Novo Nordisk

Inflammation and risk of recurrent cardiovascular events according to prior vascular disease location

Background

In recent years, anti-inflammatory drugs have been shown to reduce the risk of recurrent cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD), but have not yet been tested in patients with other vascular disease locations. Whether the relation between inflammation and recurrent CVD is modified by prior vascular disease location is unknown.

Purpose

This study aimed to establish the relation between low-grade inflammation and recurrent CVD according to prior vascular disease location.

Methods

Inflammation was measured by plasma concentrations of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (CRP). Patients from the UCC-SMART cohort with CAD (n=4,517), cerebrovascular disease (CeVD; n=2,154), peripheral artery disease (PAD, n=1,154), or abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA, n=424), and CRP ≤10 mg/L were included in the main analysis (combined n=8,249). Patients with CRP >10 mg/L (n=756) were analysed separately. The primary outcome was a composite of myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or cardiovascular death. Secondary outcomes included the primary outcome components, major adverse limb events (MALE), and all-cause mortality. The relation between CRP and outcomes was assessed using Cox proportional hazard models stratified by prior vascular disease location, and adjusted for potential confounders.

Results

During a median follow-up of 9.5 years (interquartile range 5.1–13.9) 1,877 CVD events, 887 MALE events, and 2,341 deaths were observed. In the total population, CRP was related to recurrent CVD (hazard ratio [HR] per 1 mg/L 1.08; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05–1.10), and all secondary outcomes except for ischemic stroke (HR 1.03; 95% CI 0.99–1.08). Compared to the first quintile of CRP, HRs for recurrent CVD were 1.66 (95% CI 1.41–1.96) for the last quintile ≤10 mg/L, and 1.97 (95% CI 1.64–2.36) for the subgroup with CRP >10 mg/L. CRP was related to recurrent CVD in patients with CAD (HR per 1 mg/L 1.08; 95% CI 1.04–1.11), as well as CeVD (HR 1.05; 95% CI 1.01–1.10), PAD (HR 1.08; 95% CI 1.03–1.13), and AAA (HR 1.08; 95% CI 1.01–1.15; p for interaction 0.815). The relation between CRP and all-cause mortality was stronger for patients with CAD (HR 1.13; 95% CI 1.09–1.16) compared to other locations (HRs 1.06–1.08; p=0.002).

Conclusion

Inflammation is an independent risk factor of recurrent CVD and mortality, irrespective of prior vascular disease location. Trials of anti-inflammatory drugs in patients with CeVD, PAD, and AAA are warranted.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

POS0219 EFFECT OF LOW-DOSE METHOTREXATE ON ESTIMATED GLOMERULAR FILTRATION RATE AND KIDNEY ADVERSE EVENTS IN THE CARDIOVASCULAR INFLAMMATION REDUCTION TRIAL

Background:

Low-dose methotrexate (LD-MTX) is a common first-line treatment for systemic rheumatic diseases, and its use is contraindicated in advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) because it is primarily excreted by the kidneys. Among patients with preserved kidney function, the safety of LD-MTX on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and kidney adverse events (AEs) has not been established.

Objectives:

To investigate the effect of LD-MTX on eGFR and kidney AEs using data from a randomized clinical trial.

Methods:

We performed a secondary analysis for eGFR and kidney AEs using the randomized double-blind, placebo-controlled Cardiovascular Inflammation Reduction Trial. Adults with known cardiovascular disease and diabetes and/or metabolic syndrome were randomly allocated to oral LD-MTX (target dose 15-20 mg/week) or placebo. All participants took folic acid 1 mg six days/week. Exclusion criteria included systemic inflammatory disease and creatinine clearance <40 mL/min (by Cockcroft-Gault). eGFR was calculated using the CKD-EPI formula. Clinical kidney AEs were blindly adjudicated. The least-squares mean change of eGFR from baseline was calculated at each study visit; the difference in eGFR slopes between LD-MTX and placebo was compared using a modified intention-to-treat approach. We also compared rates of kidney AEs for LD-MTX versus placebo using Cox proportional hazards models.

Results:

A total of 2,391 subjects were randomized to LD-MTX and 2,395 to placebo. At baseline, mean age was 66 years, 19% were female, mean eGFR was 80.0 mL/min/1.73m2, and 18% had stage 3 CKD or worse. Median follow-up duration was 23 months, and median LD-MTX dose was 16 mg/week. Those randomized to LD-MTX had less decline in eGFR over the entire follow-up compared to placebo (slope difference 1.12, 95%CI 0.59-1.65, p<0.001, Figure 1). Those with CKD stage 3 or worse on LD-MTX saw less eGFR decline than those with CKD stage 2 or better (slope difference among CKD stage 3 or worse: 2.46, 95%CI 1.10-3.82, p<0.001; p for interaction 0.02). The LD-MTX group had higher eGFR than placebo over the first 24 months of study follow-up (p<0.05 at each visit). On safety laboratory monitoring, there were 159 acute kidney injury AEs in the LD-MTX group and 187 in the placebo group (HR 0.83, 95%CI 0.67-1.02, Table 1). There were 37 clinical kidney AEs in the LD-MTX group and 42 in the placebo group (0.87, 95%CI 0.56-1.36). One subject began dialysis in the LD-MTX group compared to 3 in the placebo group.

Table 1.

Rates and hazard ratios for kidney adverse events per random assignment of low-dose methotrexate or placebo in the Cardiovascular Inflammation Reduction Trial (n=4,786).

Low-dose methotrexate (n=2,391)Placebo (n=2,395) (reference)HR (95%CI)EventsRate per 100 person-years (95%CI)EventsRate per 100 person-years (95%CI)SCr collected at safety visitsAny event*1593.42 (2.93, 3.98)1874.06 (3.53, 4.67)0.83 (0.67, 1.02)Mild (SCr 1.5-1.9x baseline)1543.47 (2.97, 4.06)1774.06 (3.51, 4.69)0.85 (0.68, 1.06)Moderate (SCr 2-2.9x baseline)190.41 (0.26, 0.64)240.52 (0.35, 0.78)0.78 (0.43, 1.43)Severe (SCr ≥3x baseline)20.04 (0.01, 0.17)50.11 (0.05, 0.26)0.40 (0.08, 2.04)Adjudicated clinical kidney adverse eventsAny event*370.80 (0.58, 1.11)420.92 (0.68, 1.24)0.87 (0.56, 1.36)Mild240.52 (0.35, 0.77)250.55 (0.37, 0.81)0.95 (0.55, 1.67)Moderate110.24 (0.13, 0.43)110.24 (0.13, 0.43)1.00 (0.43, 2.29)Severe40.09 (0.03, 0.23)80.17 (0.09, 0.35)0.50 (0.15, 1.64)New dialysis10.02 (0.00, 0.15)30.17 (0.09, 0.35)0.34 (0.04, 3.17)

*Acute kidney injury presence and severity was defined by KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) classification.

CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio; SCr, serum creatinine.

Conclusion:

These results demonstrate the kidney safety of LD-MTX among patients without advanced CKD at baseline. We observed a possible beneficial effect of LD-MTX on preserving kidney function, suggesting that inflammation may be involved in the pathogenesis of CKD in this population.

Disclosure of Interests:

Jeffrey Sparks Consultant of: Dr. J Sparks has performed consultancy for Bristol-Myers Squibb, Gilead, Inova Diagnostics, Optum, and Pfizer unrelated to this work., Grant/research support from: Dr. J Sparks has received research support from Bristol-Myers Squibb., Kathleen Vanni: None declared, Matthew Sparks: None declared, Chang Xu: None declared, Leah Santacroce: None declared, Robert Glynn Grant/research support from: Dr. Glynn has received grant support unrelated to the present research from AstraZeneca, Kowa, Pfizer, and Novartis., Paul Ridker Consultant of: Dr. Ridker has served as a consultant to Corvidia, Inflazome, and CiviBioPharm., Grant/research support from: Dr. Ridker receives research support unrelated to the present study from Kowa, Novartis, and Amarin., Daniel Solomon Grant/research support from: Dr. Solomon receives research support unrelated to the present study from Abbvie, Amgen, Corrona, Genentech, Janssen, and Pfizer.

The relation between healthy lifestyle changes and decrease in systemic inflammation in patients with stable cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Pharmacological lowering of inflammation has proven effective in reducing recurrent cardiovascular event rates. Aim of the current study is to evaluate lifestyle changes (smoking cessation, weight loss, physical activity level increase, alcohol moderation, and a summary lifestyle improvement score) in relation to change in plasma C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration in patients with established cardiovascular disease.

METHODS

In total, 1794 patients from the UCC-SMART cohort with stable cardiovascular disease and CRP levels ≤10 mg/L, who returned for a follow-up study visit after median 9.9 years (IQR 5.4-10.8), were included. The relation between changes in smoking status, weight, physical activity, alcohol consumption, a summary lifestyle improvement score and change in plasma CRP concentration was evaluated with linear regression analyses.

RESULTS

Smoking cessation was related to a 0.40 mg/L decline in CRP concentration (β-coefficient -0.40; 95%CI -0.73,-0.07). Weight loss (per 1SD = 6.4 kg) and increase in physical activity (per 1 SD = 48 MET hours per week) were related to a decrease in CRP concentration (β-coefficients -0.25; 95%CI -0.33,-0.16 and -0.09; 95%CI -0.17,-0.01 per SD). Change in alcohol consumption was not related to CRP difference. Every point higher in the summary lifestyle improvement score was related to a decrease in CRP concentration of 0.17 mg/L (β-coefficient -0.17; 95%CI -0.26,-0.07).

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking cessation, increase in physical activity, and weight loss are related to a decrease in CRP concentration in patients with stable cardiovascular disease. Patients with the highest summary lifestyle improvement score have the most decrease in CRP concentration. These results may indicate that healthy lifestyle changes contribute to lowering systemic inflammation, potentially leading to a lower cardiovascular risk in patients with established cardiovascular disease.

Genome-wide association and epidemiological analyses reveal common genetic origins between uterine leiomyomata and endometriosis

Uterine leiomyomata (UL) are the most common neoplasms of the female reproductive tract and primary cause for hysterectomy, leading to considerable morbidity and high economic burden. Here we conduct a GWAS meta-analysis in 35,474 cases and 267,505 female controls of European ancestry, identifying eight novel genome-wide significant (P < 5 × 10^-8) loci, in addition to confirming 21 previously reported loci, including multiple independent signals at 10 loci. Phenotypic stratification of UL by heavy menstrual bleeding in 3409 cases and 199,171 female controls reveals genome-wide significant associations at three of the 29 UL loci: 5p15.33 (TERT), 5q35.2 (FGFR4) and 11q22.3 (ATM). Four loci identified in the meta-analysis are also associated with endometriosis risk; an epidemiological meta-analysis across 402,868 women suggests at least a doubling of risk for UL diagnosis among those with a history of endometriosis. These findings increase our understanding of genetic contribution and biology underlying UL development, and suggest overlapping genetic origins with endometriosis.

2417Elevated interleukin-6 and interleukin-18 concentrations predict residual inflammatory risk both before and after interleukin-1beta inhibition with canakinumab

Background

The Canakinumab Antiinflammatory Thrombosis Outcomes Study (CANTOS) established that targeting inflammation with interleukin-1b (IL-1b) inhibition can significantly reduce cardiovascular event rates in the absence of beneficial effects on cholesterol. Yet, CANTOS participants treated with both statins and canakinumab remain at considerable risk. Both interleukin-6 (IL-6, a central signaling cytokine) or interleukin-18 (IL-18, which like IL-1b requires the NLRP3 inflammasome for activation) may contribute to the recurrent events that occur even on canakinumab therapy, and thus represent novel targets for treating atherothrombosis.

Purpose

To assess the impact of canakinumab therapy on plasma levels of IL-6 and IL-18, and to assess the potential contributions of IL-6 and IL-18 to residual inflammatory risk both before and after treatment with canakinumab.

Methods

Plasma samples from 3,381 stable post-myocardial infarction patients assigned to active IL-1b inhibition within CANTOS underwent measurement of IL-6 and IL-18 both before and after initiation of canakinumab. All participants were followed over a 3.7 year period for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause mortality.

Results

When compared to placebo, canakinumab significantly reduced IL-6 levels in a dose-dependent manner yielding placebo-subtracted median percent reductions in IL-6 at 3 months of 24.8, 36.3, and 43.2 percent for the 50mg, 150mg, and 300mg doses, respectively (all p-values <0.001). In marked contrast, no dose of canakinumab significantly altered IL-18 levels measured at 3 months (all effects less than 1 percent, all p-values >0.05). Yet, despite these differential plasma effects, both baseline and on-treatment levels of IL-6 and IL-18 associated with rates of future cardiovascular events and with all-cause mortality. For example, for MACE, each tertile increase in IL-6 measured 3 months after canakinumab initiation associated with a 42 percent increase in risk (95% CI 26–59%, P<0.0001) while each tertile increase in IL-18 measured 3 months after canakinumab initiation associated with a 15 percent increase in risk (95% CI 3–29% P=0.015). Similar effects were observed for MACE-plus, cardiovascular death, and all-cause mortality.

Conclusions

These randomized trial biomarker analyses from CANTOS demonstrate that interleukin-1b inhibition with canakinumab significantly reduces plasma levels of IL-6 but not IL-18, yet that there remains substantial residual inflammatory risk related to both IL-6 and IL-18. As such, our data support further pharmacologic development of potential anti-cytokine therapies for atherothrombosis that simultaneously inhibit IL-1b and IL-18 (such as NLRP3 inhibitors) as well as agents that directly target IL-6 signaling.

Acknowledgement/Funding

Novartis

2153The relation between systemic inflammation and incident cancer in patients with stable cardiovascular disease; a cohort study

Background

Chronic systemic low-grade inflammation, measured by elevated plasma concentrations of high sensitive C-reactive Protein (CRP), is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). There is evidence that systemic low-grade inflammation is also related to a higher risk of cancer.

Purpose

In the present prospective cohort study the relation between systemic low-grade inflammation and risk of cancer was evaluated in patients with clinically manifest vascular disease.

Methods

In total 7178 patients from the SMART cohort with manifest cardiovascular disease and plasma CRP levels ≤10 mg/L were included. Data of the cohort were linked to the Dutch national cancer registry. Cox regression models were fitted to study the relation between CRP and incident cardiovascular disease as well as incident cancer. Cancer types were classified according to anatomical location of origin, as well as histopathological subtype, irrespective of their anatomical location of origin. To adjust for potential confounding, age, sex, smoking status, packyears of smoking, and body mass index were added to the models, and additional cardiovascular risk factors, including diabetes mellitus, and systolic blood pressure.

Results

After a median follow-up time of 8.3 years (interquartile range 4.6–12.3) 1289 recurrent cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, or vascular mortality) and 1072 incident cancer diagnoses were observed. CRP level was related to recurrent cardiovascular disease risk (HR 1.57; 95% CI 1.35–1.82) (Figure 1A), as well as risk of CVD and/or cancer (HR 1.45; 95% CI 1.29–1.62) (Figure 1B) comparing the third tertile of CRP to the first tertile. CRP concentration was related to total cancer risk (HR 1.33; 95% CI 1.13–1.55 for the third tertile of CRP compared to the first tertile) (Figure 1C). Especially incident lung cancer, independent of histopathological subtype, was related to CRP level (HR 2.64; 95% CI 1.77–3.93 for the third tertile of CRP compared to the first) (Figure 1D). No effect modification by smoking status or years of smoking cessation was observed of the relation between CRP and lung cancer (p-values for interaction >0.05). Incidence of epithelial neoplasms and especially squamous cell neoplasms were related to CRP concentration, irrespective of their anatomical location of origin (HR 1.17; 95% CI 1.08–1.27, and HR 1.11; 95% CI 1.02–1.20 for 1 mg/L higher CRP level respectively). Sensitivity analyses accounting for reverse causality by excluding patients with a cancer diagnosis within 1 and within 2 years of follow up showed similar results.

Kaplan Meier curves per CRP tertile

Conclusion

Chronic systemic low-grade inflammation, measured by plasma CRP levels ≤10mg/L, is a risk factor for incident cancer, markedly lung cancer, independent of smoking status, in patients with stable cardiovascular disease.

P5328Clinical and demographic predictors of attenuated LDL-C response to PCSK9 inhibition with bococizumab: Insights from the SPIRE trials

Background

While there exists significant inter-individual variability in low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) response to proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibition, predictors of this response remain uncertain. The Studies of PCSK9 Inhibition and the Reduction of Vascular Events (SPIRE) randomized control trials evaluated the efficacy of bococizumab, a humanized murine PCSK9 antibody, in patients at high cardiovascular risk.

Purpose

This study's purpose is to determine predictors of attenuated LDL-C response to bococizumab.

Methods

SPIRE 1 and 2 trial subjects allocated to bococizumab (n=13,675) were included. Subjects with an increase in LDL-C or non-compliance to bococizumab, or development of anti-drug or neutralizing antibodies were excluded. The remaining 8281 subjects were divided into quintiles of percent LDL-C reduction from baseline to 14 weeks. The first quintile (Q1) was considered an attenuated response. Multivariate logistic regression was used to discern significant predictors of attenuated response (Q1) compared to robust response (Q5).

Results

Q1 included 1657 subjects with median 35% LDL-C reduction (range 0.4% - 48%), whereas Q5 included 1658 subjects with median 83% LDL-C reduction (range 78% - 99%). Female sex, diabetes, white race, younger age, higher baseline non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C), lipoprotein (a) [Lp(a)] and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) were significantly associated with an attenuated response compared to a robust response (each p<0.05, Table).

Multivariate logistic regression for attenuated percent LDL-C response to bococizumab from baseline to 14 week Baseline characteristic Adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) P-value Female 3.30 (2.72, 4.00) <0.0001 Diabetes 1.57 (1.32, 1.86) <0.0001 White race 1.44 (1.07, 1.93) 0.016 BMI (per 1kg/m2) 1.09 (1.07, 1.11) <0.0001 Age (per year) 0.98 (0.98, 0.99) 0.0005 Ln hs-CRP (per 1mg/L) 1.19 (1.11, 1.29) <0.0001 Lp (a) (per 10mg/dL) 1.11 (1.09, 1.14) <0.0001 Non-HDL-C (per 10mg/dL) 1.05 (1.02, 1.07) <0.0001 Odds ratios mutually adjusted for the listed variables.

Conclusions

In the SPIRE 1 and 2 trials, excluding subjects with anti-drug and neutralizing antibodies, significant predictors of an attenuated LDL-C response to PCSK9 inhibition with bococizumab included female sex, diabetes, younger age and white race.

Acknowledgement/Funding

Pfizer

Family History of MI, Smoking, and Risk of Periodontal Disease

Periodontal disease (PD) shares common risk factors with cardiovascular disease. Our hypothesis was that having a family history of myocardial infarction (FamHxMI) may be a novel risk factor for PD. Risk assessment based on FamHxMI, conditional on smoking status, was examined given the strong influence of smoking on PD. Exploratory analysis with inflammatory biomarkers and genetic determinants was conducted to understand potential mechanistic links. The Women's Genome Health Study (WGHS) is a prospective cohort of US female health care professionals who provided blood samples at baseline in the Women's Health Study, a 2 × 2 factorial clinical trial investigating vitamin E and aspirin in the prevention of cardiovascular disease and cancer. PD was ascertained via self-report over 12 y of follow-up. Prevalence (3,442 cases), incidence (1,365 cases), and survival analysis of PD were investigated for associations of FamHxMI as well as in strata of FamHxMI by smoking. Kruskal-Wallis, chi-square tests, multivariate regression, and Cox proportional hazard models were used for the analyses. In the WGHS, women with FamHxMI showed higher risk of ever having PD. A particularly high-risk group of having both FamHxMI and smoking at baseline was highlighted in the prevalence and risk of developing PD. PD risk increased according to the following strata: no FamHxMI and nonsmokers (reference), FamHxMI and nonsmokers (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.2, 95% CI = 1.0 to 1.5), smokers without FamHxMI (HR = 1.3, 95% CI = 1.2 to 1.5), and smokers with FamHxMI (HR = 1.5, 95% CI = 1.2 to 1.8). An independent analysis by the dental Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study ( N = 5,552) identified more severe periodontitis cases among participants in the high-risk group (smokers with FamHxMI). Further examination of interactions among inflammatory biomarkers or genetic exploration with FamHxMI did not explain the risk increase of PD associated with FamHxMI in the WGHS. Future efforts based on an integrative-omics approach may facilitate validation of these findings and suggest a mechanistic link between PD and FamHxMI.

Collaborative meta-analysis of individual participant data from observational studies of Lp-PLA2 and cardiovascular diseases

BACKGROUND

A large number of observational epidemiological studies have reported generally positive associations between circulating mass and activity levels of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) and the risk of cardiovascular diseases. Few studies have been large enough to provide reliable estimates in different circumstances, such as in different subgroups (e.g., by age group, sex, or smoking status) or at different Lp-PLA2 levels. Moreover, most published studies have related disease risk only to baseline values of Lp-PLA2 markers (which can lead to substantial underestimation of any risk relationships because of within-person variability over time) and have used different approaches to adjustment for possible confounding factors.

OBJECTIVES

By combination of data from individual participants from all relevant observational studies in a systematic 'meta-analysis', with correction for regression dilution (using available data on serial measurements of Lp-PLA2), the Lp-PLA2 Studies Collaboration will aim to characterize more precisely than has previously been possible the strength and shape of the age and sex-specific associations of plasma Lp-PLA2 with coronary heart disease (and, where data are sufficient, with other vascular diseases, such as ischaemic stroke). It will also help to determine to what extent such associations are independent of possible confounding factors and to explore potential sources of heterogeneity among studies, such as those related to assay methods and study design. It is anticipated that the present collaboration will serve as a framework to investigate related questions on Lp-PLA2 and cardiovascular outcomes.

METHODS

A central database is being established containing data on circulating Lp-PLA2 values, sex and other potential confounding factors, age at baseline Lp-PLA2 measurement, age at event or at last follow-up, major vascular morbidity and cause-specific mortality. Information about any repeat measurements of Lp-PLA2 and potential confounding factors has been sought to allow adjustment for possible confounding and correction for regression dilution. The analyses will involve age-specific regression models. Synthesis of the available observational studies of Lp-PLA2 will yield information on a total of about 15 000 cardiovascular disease endpoints.

GWAS for executive function and processing speed suggests involvement of the CADM2 gene

To identify common variants contributing to normal variation in two specific domains of cognitive functioning, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of executive functioning and information processing speed in non-demented older adults from the CHARGE (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology) consortium. Neuropsychological testing was available for 5429-32,070 subjects of European ancestry aged 45 years or older, free of dementia and clinical stroke at the time of cognitive testing from 20 cohorts in the discovery phase. We analyzed performance on the Trail Making Test parts A and B, the Letter Digit Substitution Test (LDST), the Digit Symbol Substitution Task (DSST), semantic and phonemic fluency tests, and the Stroop Color and Word Test. Replication was sought in 1311-21860 subjects from 20 independent cohorts. A significant association was observed in the discovery cohorts for the single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs17518584 (discovery P-value=3.12 × 10(-8)) and in the joint discovery and replication meta-analysis (P-value=3.28 × 10(-9) after adjustment for age, gender and education) in an intron of the gene cell adhesion molecule 2 (CADM2) for performance on the LDST/DSST. Rs17518584 is located about 170 kb upstream of the transcription start site of the major transcript for the CADM2 gene, but is within an intron of a variant transcript that includes an alternative first exon. The variant is associated with expression of CADM2 in the cingulate cortex (P-value=4 × 10(-4)). The protein encoded by CADM2 is involved in glutamate signaling (P-value=7.22 × 10(-15)), gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) transport (P-value=1.36 × 10(-11)) and neuron cell-cell adhesion (P-value=1.48 × 10(-13)). Our findings suggest that genetic variation in the CADM2 gene is associated with individual differences in information processing speed.

Genetic risk, coronary heart disease events, and the clinical benefit of statin therapy: an analysis of primary and secondary prevention trials

BACKGROUND

Genetic variants have been associated with the risk of coronary heart disease. In this study, we tested whether or not a composite of these variants could ascertain the risk of both incident and recurrent coronary heart disease events and identify those individuals who derive greater clinical benefit from statin therapy.

METHODS

A community-based cohort study (the Malmo Diet and Cancer Study) and four randomised controlled trials of both primary prevention (JUPITER and ASCOT) and secondary prevention (CARE and PROVE IT-TIMI 22) with statin therapy, comprising a total of 48,421 individuals and 3477 events, were included in these analyses. We studied the association of a genetic risk score based on 27 genetic variants with incident or recurrent coronary heart disease, adjusting for traditional clinical risk factors. We then investigated the relative and absolute risk reductions in coronary heart disease events with statin therapy stratified by genetic risk. We combined data from the different studies using a meta-analysis.

FINDINGS

When individuals were divided into low (quintile 1), intermediate (quintiles 2-4), and high (quintile 5) genetic risk categories, a significant gradient in risk for incident or recurrent coronary heart disease was shown. Compared with the low genetic risk category, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio for coronary heart disease for the intermediate genetic risk category was 1·34 (95% CI 1·22-1·47, p<0·0001) and that for the high genetic risk category was 1·72 (1·55-1·92, p<0·0001). In terms of the benefit of statin therapy in the four randomised trials, we noted a significant gradient (p=0·0277) of increasing relative risk reductions across the low (13%), intermediate (29%), and high (48%) genetic risk categories. Similarly, we noted greater absolute risk reductions in those individuals in higher genetic risk categories (p=0·0101), resulting in a roughly threefold decrease in the number needed to treat to prevent one coronary heart disease event in the primary prevention trials. Specifically, in the primary prevention trials, the number needed to treat to prevent one such event in 10 years was 66 in people at low genetic risk, 42 in those at intermediate genetic risk, and 25 in those at high genetic risk in JUPITER, and 57, 47, and 20, respectively, in ASCOT.

INTERPRETATION

A genetic risk score identified individuals at increased risk for both incident and recurrent coronary heart disease events. People with the highest burden of genetic risk derived the largest relative and absolute clinical benefit from statin therapy.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health.

Is the adiposity-associated FTO gene variant related to all-cause mortality independent of adiposity? Meta-analysis of data from 169,551 Caucasian adults

Previously, a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs9939609, in the FTO gene showed a much stronger association with all-cause mortality than expected from its association with body mass index (BMI), body fat mass index (FMI) and waist circumference (WC). This finding implies that the SNP has strong pleiotropic effects on adiposity and adiposity-independent pathological pathways that leads to increased mortality. To investigate this further, we conducted a meta-analysis of similar data from 34 longitudinal studies including 169,551 adult Caucasians among whom 27,100 died during follow-up. Linear regression showed that the minor allele of the FTO SNP was associated with greater BMI (n = 169,551; 0.32 kg m(-2) ; 95% CI 0.28-0.32, P < 1 × 10(-32) ), WC (n = 152,631; 0.76 cm; 0.68-0.84, P < 1 × 10(-32) ) and FMI (n = 48,192; 0.17 kg m(-2) ; 0.13-0.22, P = 1.0 × 10(-13) ). Cox proportional hazard regression analyses for mortality showed that the hazards ratio (HR) for the minor allele of the FTO SNPs was 1.02 (1.00-1.04, P = 0.097), but the apparent excess risk was eliminated after adjustment for BMI and WC (HR: 1.00; 0.98-1.03, P = 0.662) and for FMI (HR: 1.00; 0.96-1.04, P = 0.932). In conclusion, this study does not support that the FTO SNP is associated with all-cause mortality independently of the adiposity phenotypes.

Cholesteryl ester transfer protein polymorphisms, statin use, and their impact on cholesterol levels and cardiovascular events

The association of nonfunctional variants of the cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) with efficacy of statins has been a subject of debate. We evaluated whether three functional CETP variants influence statin efficacy. The effect of CETP genotype on achieved levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLc), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLc), and total cholesterol during statin treatment was estimated by meta-analysis of the linear regression outcomes of three studies (11,021 individuals). The effect of these single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on statin response in protecting against myocardial infarction (MI) was estimated by meta-analysis of statin × SNP interaction terms from logistic regression in five studies (16,570 individuals). The enhancer SNP rs3764261 significantly increased HDLc by 0.02 mmol/l per T allele (P = 6 × 10(-5)) and reduced protection against MI by statins (interaction odds ratio (OR) = 1.19 per T allele; P = 0.04). Focusing on functional CETP variants, we showed that in carriers of the rs3764261 T variant, HDLc increased more during statin treatment, and protection against MI by statins appeared to be reduced as compared with those in noncarriers.

Biomarkers and functional outcomes from ischaemic cerebral events in women: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Several biomarkers have been associated with an increased risk of ischaemic stroke. However, the association between these biomarkers and functional outcome from cerebral ischaemic events is unclear. We aimed to assess the patterns of association between cardiovascular disease biomarkers and functional outcomes after incident ischaemic cerebral events in women.

METHODS

Prospective cohort study of 27,728 women enrolled in the Women's Health Study who provided information on blood samples and were free of stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA) at baseline. Multinomial logistic regression was used to determine the association between elevated biomarker levels and functional outcomes from ischaemic cerebral events. Possible functional outcomes included TIA and ischaemic stroke with modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score of 0-1, 2-3, or 4-6.

RESULTS

After a mean follow-up of 15.1 years, 461 TIAs and 380 ischaemic strokes occurred. Elevated levels of total cholesterol were associated with the highest risk of poor functional outcome (mRS 4-6) after incident cerebral ischaemic events (relative risk = 2.02, 95% CI = 1.18-3.46). We observed significant associations between elevated levels of total cholesterol, Lp(a), C-reactive protein, and triglycerides, and mild or moderate functional outcomes after ischaemic cerebral events. Elevations in all other biomarkers were not significantly associated with functional outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Whilst total cholesterol level was associated with highest risks of poor functional outcome after stroke, we overall observed an inconsistent pattern of association between biomarkers linked with an increased risk of vascular events and more impaired functional outcomes from stroke.

Comparison of associations of adherence to a Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH)-style diet with risks of cardiovascular disease and venous thromboembolism

BACKGROUND

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) share some risk factors, including obesity, but it is unclear how dietary patterns associated with reduced risk of CVD relate to risk of VTE.

OBJECTIVE

 To compare the relationships of adherence to a Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH)-style diet with the risks of CVD and VTE.

PATIENTS/METHODS

We confirmed by medical record review 1094 incident cases of CVD and 675 incident VTEs during a mean follow-up of 14.6 years in 34 827 initially healthy participants in the Women's Health Study who completed at baseline a 133-item food frequency questionnaire scored for adherence to a DASH diet. We compared estimated associations of dietary patterns with CVD and VTE from proportional hazards models in a competing risk framework.

RESULTS

Initial analyses adjusted for age, energy intake and randomized treatments showed 36-41% reduced hazards of CVD among women in the top two quintiles of DASH score relative to those in the bottom quintile (P(trend) < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, women in the top two quintiles had 12-23% reduced hazards of CVD relative to women in the bottom quintile (P(trend) = 0.04). Analyses restricted to coronary events showed more variable 10-33% reduced hazards in the top two quintiles (P(trend) = 0.09). In contrast, higher DASH scores were unrelated to risk of VTE, with a 1% reduced hazard for the top vs. bottom quintile (P(trend) = 0.95).

CONCLUSION

An apparently strong association of adherence to the DASH diet with incidence of CVD was attenuated upon control for confounding variables. Adherence to the DASH diet was not associated with risk of VTE in women.

A polymorphism in the VKORC1 regulator calumenin predicts higher warfarin dose requirements in African Americans

Warfarin demonstrates a wide interindividual variability in response that is mediated partly by variants in cytochrome P450 2C9 (CYP2C9) and vitamin K 2,3-epoxide reductase complex subunit 1 (VKORC1). It is not known whether variants in calumenin (CALU) (vitamin K reductase regulator) have an influence on warfarin dose requirements. We resequenced CALU regions in a discovery cohort of dose outliers: patients with high (>90th percentile, n = 55) or low (<10th percentile, n = 53) warfarin dose requirements (after accounting for known genetic and nongenetic variables). One CALU variant, rs339097, was associated with high doses (P = 0.01). We validated this variant as a predictor of higher warfarin doses in two replication cohorts: (i) 496 patients of mixed ethnicity and (ii) 194 African-American patients. The G allele of rs339097 (the allele frequency was 0.14 in African Americans and 0.002 in Caucasians) was associated with the requirement for a 14.5% (SD +/- 7%) higher therapeutic dose (P = 0.03) in the first replication cohort and a higher-than-predicted dose in the second replication cohort (allele frequency 0.14, one-sided P = 0.03). CALU rs339097 A>G is associated with higher warfarin dose requirements, independent of known genetic and nongenetic predictors of warfarin dose in African Americans.

Ability of VKORC1 and CYP2C9 to predict therapeutic warfarin dose during the initial weeks of therapy

BACKGROUND

CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genotypes predict therapeutic warfarin dose at initiation of therapy; however, the predictive ability of genetic information after a week or longer is unknown. Experts have hypothesized that genotype becomes irrelevant once international normalized ratio (INR) values are available because INR response reflects warfarin sensitivity.

METHODS

We genotyped the participants in the Prevention of Recurrent Venous Thromboembolism (PREVENT) trial, who had idiopathic venous thromboemboli and began low-intensity warfarin (therapeutic INR 1.5-2.0) using a standard dosing protocol. To develop pharmacogenetic models, we quantified the effect of genotypes, clinical factors, previous doses and INR on therapeutic warfarin dose in the 223 PREVENT participants who were randomized to warfarin and achieved stable therapeutic INRs.

RESULTS

A pharmacogenetic model using data from day 0 (before therapy initiation) explained 54% of the variability in therapeutic dose (R(2)). The R(2) increased to 68% at day 7, 75% at day 14, and 77% at day 21, because of increasing contributions from prior doses and INR response. Although CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genotypes were significant independent predictors of therapeutic dose at each weekly interval, the magnitude of their predictive ability diminished over time: partial R(2) of genotype was 43% at day 0, 12% at day 7, 4% at day 14, and 1% at day 21.

CONCLUSION

Over the first weeks of warfarin therapy, INR and prior dose become increasingly predictive of therapeutic dose, and genotype becomes less relevant. However, at day 7, genotype remains clinically relevant, accounting for 12% of therapeutic dose variability.

The benefits of statins in people without established cardiovascular disease but with cardiovascular risk factors: meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

OBJECTIVES

To investigate whether statins reduce all cause mortality and major coronary and cerebrovascular events in people without established cardiovascular disease but with cardiovascular risk factors, and whether these effects are similar in men and women, in young and older (>65 years) people, and in people with diabetes mellitus.

DESIGN

Meta-analysis of randomised trials.

DATA SOURCES

Cochrane controlled trials register, Embase, and Medline. Data abstraction Two independent investigators identified studies on the clinical effects of statins compared with a placebo or control group and with follow-up of at least one year, at least 80% or more participants without established cardiovascular disease, and outcome data on mortality and major cardiovascular disease events. Heterogeneity was assessed using the Q and I(2) statistics. Publication bias was assessed by visual examination of funnel plots and the Egger regression test.

RESULTS

10 trials enrolled a total of 70 388 people, of whom 23 681 (34%) were women and 16 078 (23%) had diabetes mellitus. Mean follow-up was 4.1 years. Treatment with statins significantly reduced the risk of all cause mortality (odds ratio 0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 0.96), major coronary events (0.70, 0.61 to 0.81), and major cerebrovascular events (0.81, 0.71 to 0.93). No evidence of an increased risk of cancer was observed. There was no significant heterogeneity of the treatment effect in clinical subgroups.

CONCLUSION

In patients without established cardiovascular disease but with cardiovascular risk factors, statin use was associated with significantly improved survival and large reductions in the risk of major cardiovascular events.

Systematically missing confounders in individual participant data meta-analysis of observational cohort studies

One difficulty in performing meta-analyses of observational cohort studies is that the availability of confounders may vary between cohorts, so that some cohorts provide fully adjusted analyses while others only provide partially adjusted analyses. Commonly, analyses of the association between an exposure and disease either are restricted to cohorts with full confounder information, or use all cohorts but do not fully adjust for confounding. We propose using a bivariate random-effects meta-analysis model to use information from all available cohorts while still adjusting for all the potential confounders. Our method uses both the fully adjusted and the partially adjusted estimated effects in the cohorts with full confounder information, together with an estimate of their within-cohort correlation. The method is applied to estimate the association between fibrinogen level and coronary heart disease incidence using data from 154 012 participants in 31 cohorts.† Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Lipid biomarkers, hormone therapy and the risk of venous thromboembolism in women

BACKGROUND

Published reports of a relationship between lipids and incident venous thromboembolism (VTE) are conflicting.

OBJECTIVES

To clarify the relationship between lipids and VTE risk in healthy women, including potential effect modification by hormone therapy (HT).

PATIENTS/METHODS

Among 27 081 initially healthy women followed prospectively for incident VTE, we measured a full panel of lipid biomarkers, including total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), triglycerides and apolipoproteins A-I (apo A-I) and B(100).

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 11.4 years, VTE occurred in 355 women. We observed no relationship between any of the lipids and VTE risk. However, when unprovoked VTE was considered separately (n=161), both HDL-C and apo A-I were positively associated with risk. Fully adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for extreme tertiles of HDL-C and apo A-I were 1.75 (1.13-2.73) and 1.70 (1.10-2.62), respectively. After stratifying by HT use, this relationship was present only among HT users; the HRs for unprovoked VTE for extreme tertiles of HDL-C and apo A-I were 3.58 (1.69-7.58) and 2.88 (1.29-6.42) among users, but only 0.79 (0.39-1.62) and 0.89 (0.50-1.57) among non-users. The interactions were statistically significant (each Pinteraction<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

We observed little evidence that lipid levels predict risk of incident VTE among non-users of HT. High levels of HDL-C and apo A-I associate with unprovoked VTE risk among HT users. This observation likely reflects prothrombotic effects of HT that are concomitant with HDL-C and apo A-I levels, rather than direct effects of those lipids.

Use of pharmacogenetic and clinical factors to predict the therapeutic dose of warfarin

Initiation of warfarin therapy using trial-and-error dosing is problematic. Our goal was to develop and validate a pharmacogenetic algorithm. In the derivation cohort of 1,015 participants, the independent predictors of therapeutic dose were: VKORC1 polymorphism -1639/3673 G>A (-28% per allele), body surface area (BSA) (+11% per 0.25 m(2)), CYP2C9(*)3 (-33% per allele), CYP2C9(*)2 (-19% per allele), age (-7% per decade), target international normalized ratio (INR) (+11% per 0.5 unit increase), amiodarone use (-22%), smoker status (+10%), race (-9%), and current thrombosis (+7%). This pharmacogenetic equation explained 53-54% of the variability in the warfarin dose in the derivation and validation (N= 292) cohorts. For comparison, a clinical equation explained only 17-22% of the dose variability (P < 0.001). In the validation cohort, we prospectively used the pharmacogenetic-dosing algorithm in patients initiating warfarin therapy, two of whom had a major hemorrhage. To facilitate use of these pharmacogenetic and clinical algorithms, we developed a nonprofit website, http://www.WarfarinDosing.org.

Renin-angiotensin and endothelial nitric oxide synthase gene polymorphisms are not associated with the risk of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

The renin-angiotensin system and endothelial function have both been implicated in the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between a set of well-characterized genetic variants of the renin-angiotensin system and the endothelial nitric oxide synthase (NOS3) gene and the incidence of type 2 diabetes.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Women's Health Study, United States.

SUBJECTS

A total of 24,309 Caucasian women free of diabetes at baseline.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Six previously characterized single nucleotide polymorphisms (NOS3 rs1800779, NOS3 rs3918226, NOS3 rs1799983, ACE rs1799752, AGT rs699 and AGTR rs5186) were genotyped. Cox proportional-hazards models were constructed to compare the incidence of type 2 diabetes according to the different genotypes.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 10.2 years (interquartile range 9.6-10.6 years), 999 women developed type 2 diabetes. The age-adjusted incidence rates across the six genotypes were very similar, and ranged from 3.7 to 4.8 cases/1000 person-years of follow-up. The multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for rs1800779, rs3918226, rs1799983, rs1799752, rs699, and rs5186 were 1.01 (0.92-1.10), 1.09 (0.93-1.27), 0.95 (0.86-1.05), 1.04 (0.95-1.14), 1.08 (0.98-1.18), 1.01 (0.91-1.11), confirming the lack of association between the genotypes and incident type 2 diabetes. Stratification by body mass index revealed essentially unchanged results. Finally, there was no association between NOS3-haplotypes and incident type 2 diabetes.

CONCLUSION

We did not find an association between six well-characterized genetic polymorphisms of the renin-angiotensin system or the NOS3 gene and the occurrence of type 2 diabetes.

HbA1c measured in stored erythrocytes and mortality rate among middle-aged and older women

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Diabetes is known to increase mortality rate, but the degree to which mild hyperglycaemia may be associated with the risk of death is uncertain. We examined the association between HbA1c measured in stored erythrocytes and mortality rate in women with and without diabetes.

METHODS

We conducted a cohort study of 27,210 women>or=45 years old with no history of cardiovascular disease or cancer who participated in the Women's Health Study, a randomised trial of vitamin E and aspirin.

RESULTS

Over a median of 10 years of follow-up, 706 women died. Proportional hazards models adjusted for age, smoking, hypertension, blood lipids, exercise, postmenopausal hormone use, multivitamin use and C-reactive protein were used to estimate the relative risk of mortality. Among women without a diagnosis of diabetes and HbA1c<5.60%, those in the top quintile (HbA1c 5.19-5.59%) had a relative risk of mortality of 1.28 (95% CI 0.98-1.69, p value for linear trend=0.14) compared with those with HbA1c 2.27-4.79%. Women with HbA1c 5.60-5.99% and no diagnosis of diabetes had a 54% increased risk of mortality (95% CI 1-136%) compared with those with HbA1c 2.27-4.79%. HbA1c was significantly associated with mortality across the range 4.50-7.00% (p value for linear trend=0.02); a test of deviation from linearity was not statistically significant (p=0.67). Diabetic women had more than twice the mortality risk of non-diabetic women.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

This study provides further evidence that chronic mild hyperglycaemia, even in the absence of diagnosed diabetes, is associated with increased risk of mortality. ClinicalTrials.gov ID no.: NCT00000479.

Differential leucocyte count and the risk of future coronary artery disease in healthy men and women: the EPIC-Norfolk Prospective Population Study

BACKGROUND

We examined the relationship between granulocyte, lymphocyte and monocyte counts and risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in men and women. There is paucity of data on the differential leucocyte count and its relationship with the risk of CHD and CVD.

METHODS

This prospective study comprised 7073 men and 9035 women who were 45-79 years of age and were residents of Norfolk. United Kingdom.

RESULTS

During an average of 8 years of follow-up we identified 857 incident CHD events and 2581 CVD incident events. Increased total leucocyte count was associated with increased risk for both CHD and CVD. The highest quartile of granulocyte count was associated with increased risk when compared to lowest quartile for CHD (men HR 1.70 95% CI: 1.30-2.21; women HR 1.24 95% CI: 0.91-1.69) and for CVD (men HR 1.46 95% CI: 1.24-1.71; women HR 1.20 95% CI: 1.02-1.42). The association remained unchanged when the analyses were restricted to nonsmokers and when risk was assessed for every 1000 cells L(-1) increase in cell count. In multivariable models, despite adjusting for C-reactive protein (CRP), the granulocyte count remained an independent predictor of CHD and CVD risk, especially amongst men. Lymphocyte or monocyte counts were not significantly associated with increased risk. In all analyses, additionally adjusting for CRP did not affect the results materially.

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, we found that the higher risk for CHD and CVD associated with increased total leucocyte count seems to be accounted for by the increased granulocyte count.

Migraine and Biomarkers of Cardiovascular Disease in Women

Migraine has been associated with an unfavourable cardiovascular risk profile and with increased risk of cardiovascular disease. In a cross-sectional analysis of 17 616 women aged ≥45 years, we evaluated the association of migraine and migraine aura status with elevated levels of total cholesterol, low- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), non-HDL-C, apolipoprotein (Apo) A-1 and B100, lipoprotein (a), C-reactive protein (CRP), fibrinogen, intercellular adhesion molecule-1, homocysteine and creatinine. A total of 5087 (18.4±) women reported any history of migraine. Compared with women with no migraine history, women who reported any history of migraine had modestly increased adjusted odds ratios (95± confidence interval) of 1.09 (1.01, 1.18) for elevated total cholesterol, 1.14 (1.05, 1.23) for non-HDL-C, 1.09 (1.01, 1.18) for Apo B100 and 1.13 (1.05, 1.22) for CRP. The increase did not meaningfully differ according to migraine aura status and migraine frequency. In this large cohort of women, only a modest association was found between migraine and adverse levels of certain cardiovascular biomarkers.

The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration: analysis of individual data on lipid, inflammatory and other markers in over 1.1 million participants in 104 prospective studies of cardiovascular diseases

Many long-term prospective studies have reported on associations of cardiovascular diseases with circulating lipid markers and/or inflammatory markers. Studies have not, however, generally been designed to provide reliable estimates under different circumstances and to correct for within-person variability. The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration has established a central database on over 1.1 million participants from 104 prospective population-based studies, in which subsets have information on lipid and inflammatory markers, other characteristics, as well as major cardiovascular morbidity and cause-specific mortality. Information on repeat measurements on relevant characteristics has been collected in approximately 340,000 participants to enable estimation of and correction for within-person variability. Re-analysis of individual data will yield up to approximately 69,000 incident fatal or nonfatal first ever major cardiovascular outcomes recorded during about 11.7 million person years at risk. The primary analyses will involve age-specific regression models in people without known baseline cardiovascular disease in relation to fatal or nonfatal first ever coronary heart disease outcomes. This initiative will characterize more precisely and in greater detail than has previously been possible the shape and strength of the age- and sex-specific associations of several lipid and inflammatory markers with incident coronary heart disease outcomes (and, secondarily, with other incident cardiovascular outcomes) under a wide range of circumstances. It will, therefore, help to determine to what extent such associations are independent from possible confounding factors and to what extent such markers (separately and in combination) provide incremental predictive value.

Qualitative and quantitative effects of APOE genetic variation on plasma C-reactive protein, LDL-cholesterol, and apoE protein

A genetic link between lipid metabolism and inflammation has been suggested by the association between variation in the APOE gene and plasma C-reactive protein (CRP). This association was confirmed among Caucasians and extended to an African-American population, and the well-known associations of APOE variation with LDL-C and apoE protein were also observed. While eight common variants in APOE were examined, the association with CRP involved primarily the two nonsynonymous SNPs that define the major epsilon2, epsilon3, and epsilon4 alleles. In particular, the strongest link involved lower CRP levels among carriers of the APOE epsilon4 allele that also contributes to the risk of cardiovascular and Alzheimer's diseases as well as to higher lipid levels. A lesser effect was characterized by lower CRP levels among carriers of a subtype of the epsilon3 allele. The magnitude of the association with plasma CRP was at least as great as the effect of variation in the CRP gene itself. Quantitative analysis suggested that the effect on CRP is more likely a consequence of intrinsic functional differences among the E2, E3, and E4 apoE proteins than different levels of apoE protein or LDL-C in the plasma.

Qualitative and quantitative effects of APOE genetic variation on plasma C-reactive protein, LDL-cholesterol, and apoE protein

A genetic link between lipid metabolism and inflammation has been suggested by the association between variation in the APOE gene and plasma C-reactive protein (CRP). This association was confirmed among Caucasians and extended to an African-American population, and the well-known associations of APOE variation with LDL-C and apoE protein were also observed. While eight common variants in APOE were examined, the association with CRP involved primarily the two nonsynonymous SNPs that define the major epsilon2, epsilon3, and epsilon4 alleles. In particular, the strongest link involved lower CRP levels among carriers of the APOE epsilon4 allele that also contributes to the risk of cardiovascular and Alzheimer's diseases as well as to higher lipid levels. A lesser effect was characterized by lower CRP levels among carriers of a subtype of the epsilon3 allele. The magnitude of the association with plasma CRP was at least as great as the effect of variation in the CRP gene itself. Quantitative analysis suggested that the effect on CRP is more likely a consequence of intrinsic functional differences among the E2, E3, and E4 apoE proteins than different levels of apoE protein or LDL-C in the plasma.

Lipid levels and the risk of ischemic stroke in women

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association between total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), total cholesterol to HDL-C ratio, and non-HDL-C with the risk of ischemic stroke in a large cohort of apparently healthy women.

METHODS

Prospective cohort study among 27,937 US women aged > or =45 years participating in the Women's Health Study who provided baseline blood samples. Stroke occurrence was self-reported and confirmed by medical record review. We categorized plasma lipid measurements into quintiles. We used Cox proportional hazards models to evaluate the association between lipids and risk of ischemic stroke.

RESULTS

During 11 years of follow-up, 282 ischemic strokes occurred. All lipid levels were strongly associated with increased risk of ischemic stroke in age-adjusted models. The association attenuated particularly for HDL-C after adjustment for potential confounders. For the comparison of the highest to the lowest quintile, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI; p for trend across mean quintile values) of ischemic stroke were 2.27 (1.43, 3.60; p(trend) < 0.001) for total cholesterol; 1.74 (1.14, 2.66; p(trend) = 0.003) for LDL-C; 0.78 (0.52, 1.17; p(trend) = 0.27) for HDL-C; 1.65 (1.06, 2.58; p(trend) = 0.02) for the total cholesterol to HDL-C ratio; and 2.45 (1.54, 3.91; p(trend) < 0.001) for non-HDL-C.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large cohort of apparently healthy women, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, the total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were significantly associated with increased risk of ischemic stroke.

Influence of genetic variation in the C-reactive protein gene on the inflammatory response during and after acute coronary ischemia

The aim of this research was to assess whether common genetic variants within the C-reactive protein gene (CRP) are related to the degree of acute rise in plasma C-reactive protein (CRP) levels following an acute coronary syndrome (ACS). While polymorphisms within CRP are associated with basal CRP levels in healthy men and women, less is known about the relationship of such genetic variants and the degree of CRP rise during and after acute ischemia. Plasma CRP is associated with increased rates of recurrent coronary events. We evaluated seven common genetic variants within CRP and assessed their relationship to the degree of rise in CRP levels immediately following an acute coronary syndrome in 1827 European American patients. Variants in the putative promoter region, -757T > C and -286C > T > A, were associated with the highest CRP elevations after ACS. Patients with two copies of the A allele of SNP -286C > T > A had median CRP values of 76.6 mg/L, compared to 11.1 mg/L in patients with no copies of the rare variant (p-value <0.0001), post ACS. The lowest CRP values were found for patients with minor alleles of the exonic 1059G > C and the 3'untranslated region 1846G > A SNPs. For example, patients homozygous for the minor allele of 1059G > C had 71% lower median CRP values than those homozygous for the major allele [3.5 vs 12.0 mg/L, p < 0.0001]. These trends persisted in the chronic stable phase after ischemia had resolved, and after adjustment for infarct size by peak creatinine kinase levels and clinical status by Killip class. Assessment of CRP genetic variants identified patients with higher and lower CRP elevation after acute coronary syndrome.

Hormonal factors and risk of recurrent venous thrombosis: the prevention of recurrent venous thromboembolism trial

BACKGROUND

In some but not all studies, men with venous thrombosis had a higher risk of recurrence than women. Information on women with initial hormone-related thrombosis is scant.

OBJECTIVE

We assessed the incidence of recurrent thrombosis by gender, and among women using exogenous hormones or pregnant/postpartum at the time of index thrombosis.

PATIENTS/METHODS

A total of 508 men and women with one or more previous venous thrombosis episodes were observed while participating in a randomized trial of low-intensity warfarin or placebo for 2.1 years. Index thrombosis events during treatment with postmenopausal hormones, oral contraceptives, or during pregnancy, or the puerperium were considered to be hormone-related events.

RESULTS

Among 268 men the 3-year probability of recurrent thrombosis was 18.4% (95% confidence intervals; CI 12.3-24.4). Among 109 women without hormone-related thrombosis, the rate was 15.0% (95% CI 6.3-23.8). Among 129 women with hormone-related thrombosis, the rate was 5.0% (95% CI 1.1-8.9). Adjusting for other risk factors and treatment assignment, women had a 39% lower thrombosis recurrence risk than men: hazard ratio (HR) 0.61 (95% CI 0.34-1.08). Women with hormone-related thrombosis had a 58% lower risk than men: HR 0.42 (95% CI 0.19-0.97); and a 46% lower recurrence risk than other women; HR 0.54 (95% CI 0.19-1.54). Women without hormone-related index events had a recurrence rate similar to men; HR 0.83 (95% CI 0.42-1.66).

CONCLUSIONS

In this trial population, women had a lower risk of recurrent venous thrombosis than men. This difference was explained by a low risk of recurrence among women with hormone-related index thrombosis.

Polymorphisms of prostaglandin-endoperoxide synthase 2 gene, and prostaglandin-E receptor 2 gene, C-reactive protein concentrations and risk of atherothrombosis: a nested case-control approach

OBJECTIVE

Recent data have shown an association between polymorphisms of prostaglandin-endoperoxide synthase-2 gene (PTGS2; alias COX-2), and prostaglandin-E receptor-2 gene (PTGER2) and risk of atherothrombotic disorders.

METHODS

We evaluated two PTGS2 (rs20417, rs689470), and three PTGER2 (rs708494/uS5, rs708495/uS7, and chr14: 50 764 013/uS10) gene polymorphisms among 600 Caucasian male participants of the Physicians' Health Study with incident myocardial infarction (MI) or ischemic stroke and 600 age- and smoking-matched controls who remained free of all reported cardiovascular disease.

RESULTS

Genotype distributions were in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium in the control groups. Genotype and allele distribution were similar between cases and controls. The polymorphisms tested were in linkage disequilibrium. Results from the adjusted haplotype-based conditional logistic regression analysis showed a modest association of the PTGER2 2-1-1 haplotype with reduced risk of MI (odds ratio = 0.50, 95% CI; CI = 0.26-0.97, P = 0.04), and the 2-2-1 haplotype with reduced risk of ischemic stroke (odds ratio = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.47-0.99, P = 0.048). In contrast to prior data, we found no evidence for an association of the PTGS2 polymorphisms/haplotypes tested with risk of incident MI nor with ischemic stroke. However, we found suggestive evidence for an association of specific PTGER2 haplotypes with reduced risk of these outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Although these prospective data implicate the potential involvement of prostaglandin-E receptor-2 gene variation in atherothrombosis, external validation of our findings is needed.

D-dimer, factor VIII coagulant activity, low-intensity warfarin and the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism

BACKGROUND

Elevated plasma D-dimer and factor VIII coagulant activity (FVIIIc) may be associated with the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE).

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate D-dimer and FVIIIc as risk factors for recurrent VTE and assess the efficacy of extended low-intensity warfarin (target International Normalized Ratio 1.5-2.0) in preventing recurrence by biomarker level.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In the Prevention of Recurrent Venous Thromboembolism trial, 508 idiopathic VTE patients treated for > or = 3 months with full-intensity warfarin, and who had stopped warfarin for 7 weeks on average, were randomized to low-intensity warfarin or placebo and followed for 2.1 years for recurrent VTE. Prerandomization blood samples were analysed for D-dimer and FVIIIc.

RESULTS

One-third of participants had elevated baseline D-dimer (> or = 500 ng mL(-1)) and one-fourth, elevated FVIIIc (> or = 150 IU dL(-1)). Adjusting for other risk factors, the hazard ratios (HRs) for recurrent VTE with elevated D-dimer or FVIIIc were 2.0 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-3.4] and 1.5 (95% CI 0.8-2.8), respectively. The association of elevated D-dimer with recurrence was larger among patients with one prior VTE (HR 3.2, 95% CI 1.3-8.0) than in patients with more than one event (HR 1.4, 95% CI 0.7-2.2). For patients with one prior VTE on placebo, the annual recurrence incidence was 10.9% with elevated D-dimer and 2.9% with normal values. Low-intensity warfarin was equally effective in recurrence risk reduction in those with normal or elevated biomarkers.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with idiopathic VTE, measurement of D-dimer, but not FVIIIc, might be useful for risk stratification. The efficacy of extended low-intensity warfarin therapy did not vary by biomarker level.

Increased inflammatory markers in children with familial hypercholesterolaemia

BACKGROUND

While data are abundant on increased levels of inflammatory markers in adult patients with hypercholesterolaemia, such data in children are limited. Therefore, we sought to investigate the degree and character of inflammation in children with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) by measuring levels of neopterin, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), and soluble CD40 ligand (sCD40L).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In the present study, we compared the concentration of inflammatory markers in children suffering from heterozygous FH (n = 207) with those in unaffected siblings (n = 84). Furthermore, we investigated the effect of 2-year treatment with pravastatin (20-40 mg qd) or placebo on plasma levels of those markers.

RESULTS

Our main finding was that serum levels of neopterin and hsCRP were significantly higher in FH children compared with healthy siblings, whereas sCD40L was not. Body mass index and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were significant independent predictors of hsCRP and neopterin. Furthermore, pravastatin therapy decreased neopterin, but not hsCRP and sCD40L, in the FH children, but these changes were not different from the placebo group.

CONCLUSION

These findings indicate low-grade monocyte/macrophage hyperactivity in the early stages of atherogenesis, but our findings also suggest that inflammation as well as anti-inflammatory effects of statins are less prominent features of atherosclerosis in FH children than in FH adults.

Multi-locus candidate gene polymorphisms and risk of myocardial infarction: a population-based, prospective genetic analysis

BACKGROUND

Polymorphisms in candidate genes related to lipid metabolism, thrombosis, hemostasis, cell-matrix adhesion, and inflammation have been suggested clinically useful in risk assessment of cardiovascular disease.

METHODS

We evaluated a panel of 92 candidate gene polymorphisms, using a multiplex polymerase chain reaction-immobilized probe assay amongst 523 individuals who subsequently developed myocardial infarction (MI), and amongst 2092 individuals who remained free of reported cardiovascular disease over a mean follow-up period of 13.2 years.

RESULTS

Of the 92 polymorphisms tested, three that we previously reported on were associated with risk of MI, [pro12ala in the peroxisome proliferator activated-receptor gamma gene (odds ratio, OR = 0.75, P = 0.02); thr164ile in the beta-2 adrenergic receptor gene (OR = 0.14, P = 0.007); and ala23thr polymorphism in the eotaxin gene (OR = 1.87, P = 0.01)]. However, when adjusted for the other 89 polymorphisms evaluated, these findings were no longer statistically significant. Further, in contrast to reports from other investigators, we found little evidence for association of a C677T polymorphism in the 5,10-methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase gene, the angiotensin-I-converting enzyme 1 insertion/deletion polymorphism, a 4G/5G polymorphism in the serine/cysteine proteinase inhibitor-clade E-member 1 gene, the factor V Leiden mutation, the G20210A factor II mutation, a -455G>A polymorphism in the beta-fibrinogen gene, the cys112arg/arg158cys apolipoprotein E gene polymorphism, a gly460trp polymorphism in the alpha-adducin gene, and a -629C>A polymorphism in the cholesteryl ester transfer protein gene with risk of MI.

CONCLUSIONS

After correction for multiple comparisons, the addition of genetic information observed in the present study had little impact on risk prediction models for MI. The present investigation highlights the importance of replication and validation of findings from genetic association studies.

Association of CommonCRPGene Variants with CRP Levels and Cardiovascular Events

C-reactive protein (CRP) is a well-documented marker of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk. We resequenced CRP to identify a comprehensive set of common SNP variants, then studied and replicated their association with baseline CRP level among apparently healthy subjects in the Women's Health Study (WHS; n = 717), Pravastatin Inflammation/CRP Evaluation trial (PRINCE; n = 1,110) and Physicians' Health Study (PHS; n = 509) cohorts. The minor alleles of four SNPs were consistently associated in all three cohorts with higher CRP, while the minor alleles of two SNPs were associated with lower CRP (p < 0.05 for each). Single marker and haplotype analysis in all three cohorts were consistent with functional roles for the 5'-flanking triallelic SNP -286C>T>A and the 3'-UTR SNP 1846G>A. None of the SNPs associated with higher CRP were associated with risk of incident myocardial infarction (MI) or ischemic stroke in a prospective, nested case-control study design from the PHS cohort (610 case-control pairs). One SNP, -717A>G, was unrelated to CRP levels but associated with decreased risk of MI (p = 0.001). Taken together, these data imply significant interactions between both genetic and environmental contributions to the increased CRP levels that predict a greater risk of future atherothrombotic events in epidemiological studies.