Intravenous Thrombolysis in Patients 90 Years or Older with Moderate to Severe Acute Ischemic Stroke Increases Ambulation at Discharge and Is Safe: A Prospective Cohort Study from a Single Center in Santiago, Chile

INTRODUCTION

The World Health Organization predicts that the global population aged 60 years and older will double by 2050, leading to a significant rise in the public health impact of acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Existing stroke guidelines do not specify an upper age limit for the administration of intravenous thrombolysis (IVT), although some suggest a relative exclusion criterion in patients aged ≥80 in the 3-4.5-h window. Many physicians avoid treating these patients with IVT, argumenting high risk and little benefit. Our aim was to investigate the efficacy and safety of IVT treatment in patients with non-minor AIS aged ≥90, admitted to our institution. The primary efficacy endpoint was the ability to walk at discharge (mRS 0-3), and the primary safety endpoints were death and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhagic transformation (sIHT) at discharge.

METHODS

Patients with AIS aged ≥90 admitted to our center from January 2003 to December 2022 were included. They were selected if had an NIHSS ≥5, were previously ambulatory (prestroke mRS score 3 or less), and arrived within 6 h from symptom onset. Those treated or not with IVT were compared with univariate analysis.

RESULTS

The mean age was 93.2 (2.4) years, and 51 (73.9%) were female. The admission mRS and NIHSS were 1 (IQR 0-2) and 14 (IQR 7-22), respectively. Thrombolyzed patients had a shorter time from symptom onset to door and lower glycemia on admission. IVT was associated with a higher proportion of patients achieving mRS 0-3 at discharge (p = 0.03) and at 90 days (p = 0.04). There were no differences between groups in the risk of death (p = 0.55) or sIHT (p = 0.38).

CONCLUSION

In this small sample, ambulatory patients aged ≥90 with moderate or severe AIS treated with IVT had increased odds of being able to walk independently at discharge than those not treated, without safety concerns.

Safety and efficacy of factor XIa inhibition with milvexian for secondary stroke prevention (AXIOMATIC-SSP): a phase 2, international, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, dose-finding trial

BACKGROUND

People with factor XI deficiency have lower rates of ischaemic stroke than the general population and infrequent spontaneous bleeding, suggesting that factor XI has a more important role in thrombosis than in haemostasis. Milvexian, an oral small-molecule inhibitor of activated factor XI, added to standard antiplatelet therapy, might reduce the risk of non-cardioembolic ischaemic stroke without increasing the risk of bleeding. We aimed to estimate the dose-response of milvexian for recurrent ischaemic cerebral events and major bleeding in patients with recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA).

METHODS

AXIOMATIC-SSP was a phase 2, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, dose-finding trial done at 367 hospitals in 27 countries. Eligible participants aged 40 years or older, with acute (<48 h) ischaemic stroke or high-risk TIA, were randomly assigned by a web-based interactive response system in a 1:1:1:1:1:2 ratio to receive one of five doses of milvexian (25 mg once daily, 25 mg twice daily, 50 mg twice daily, 100 mg twice daily, or 200 mg twice daily) or matching placebo twice daily for 90 days. All participants received clopidogrel 75 mg daily for the first 21 days and aspirin 100 mg daily for the first 90 days. Investigators, site staff, and participants were masked to treatment assignment. The primary efficacy endpoint was the composite of ischaemic stroke or incident covert brain infarct on MRI at 90 days, assessed in all participants allocated to treatment who completed a follow-up MRI brain scan, and the primary analysis assessed the dose-response relationship with Multiple Comparison Procedure-Modelling (MCP-MOD). The main safety outcome was major bleeding at 90 days, assessed in all participants who received at least one dose of the study drug. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03766581) and the EU Clinical Trials Register (2017-005029-19).

FINDINGS

Between Jan 27, 2019, and Dec 24, 2021, 2366 participants were randomly allocated to placebo (n=691); milvexian 25 mg once daily (n=328); or twice-daily doses of milvexian 25 mg (n=318), 50 mg (n=328), 100 mg (n=310), or 200 mg (n=351). The median age of participants was 71 (IQR 62-77) years and 859 (36%) were female. At 90 days, the estimates of the percentage of participants with either symptomatic ischaemic stroke or covert brain infarcts were 16·8 (90·2% CI 14·5-19·1) for placebo, 16·7 (14·8-18·6) for 25 mg milvexian once daily, 16·6 (14·8-18·3) for 25 mg twice daily, 15·6 (13·9-17·5) for 50 mg twice daily, 15·4 (13·4-17·6) for 100 mg twice daily, and 15·3 (12·8-19·7) for 200 mg twice daily. No significant dose-response was observed among the five milvexian doses for the primary composite efficacy outcome. Model-based estimates of the relative risk with milvexian compared with placebo were 0·99 (90·2% CI 0·91-1·05) for 25 mg once daily, 0·99 (0·87-1·11) for 25 mg twice daily, 0·93 (0·78-1·11) for 50 mg twice daily, 0·92 (0·75-1·13) for 100 mg twice daily, and 0·91 (0·72-1·26) for 200 mg twice daily. No apparent dose-response was observed for major bleeding (four [1%] of 682 participants with placebo, two [1%] of 325 with milvexian 25 mg once daily, two [1%] of 313 with 25 mg twice daily, five [2%] of 325 with 50 mg twice daily, five [2%] of 306 with 100 mg twice daily, and five [1%] of 344 with 200 mg twice daily). Five treatment-emergent deaths occurred, four of which were considered unrelated to the study drug by the investigator.

INTERPRETATION

Factor XIa inhibition with milvexian, added to dual antiplatelet therapy, did not substantially reduce the composite outcome of symptomatic ischaemic stroke or covert brain infarction and did not meaningfully increase the risk of major bleeding. Findings from our study have informed the design of a phase 3 trial of milvexian for the prevention of ischaemic stroke in patients with acute ischaemic stroke or TIA.

FUNDING

Bristol Myers Squibb and Janssen Research & Development.

Who is in the emergency room matters when we talk about door-to-needle time: a single-center experience

BACKGROUND

 The efficacy of intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) is time-dependent.

OBJECTIVE

 To compare the door-to-needle (DTN) time of stroke neurologists (SNs) versus non-stroke neurologists (NSNs) and emergency room physicians (EPs). Additionally, we aimed to determine elements associated with DTN ≤ 20 minutes.

METHODS

 Prospective study of patients with IVT treated at Clínica Alemana between June 2016 and September 2021.

RESULTS

 A total of 301 patients underwent treatment for IVT. The mean DTN time was 43.3 ± 23.6 minutes. One hundred seventy-three (57.4%) patients were evaluated by SNs, 122 (40.5%) by NSNs, and 6 (2.1%) by EPs. The mean DTN times were 40.8 ± 23, 46 ± 24.7, and 58 ± 22.5 minutes, respectively. Door-to-needle time ≤ 20 minutes occurred more frequently when patients were treated by SNs compared to NSNs and EPs: 15%, 4%, and 0%, respectively (odds ratio [OR]: 4.3, 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 1.66-11.5, p = 0.004). In univariate analysis DTN time ≤ 20 minutes was associated with treatment by a SN (p = 0.002), coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic period (p = 0.21), time to emergency room (ER) (p = 0.21), presence of diabetes (p = 0.142), hypercholesterolemia (p = 0.007), atrial fibrillation (p < 0.09), score on the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) (p = 0.001), lower systolic (p = 0.143) and diastolic (p = 0.21) blood pressures, the Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS; p = 0.09), vessel occlusion (p = 0.05), use of tenecteplase (p = 0.18), thrombectomy (p = 0.13), and years of experience of the physician (p < 0.001). After multivariate analysis, being treated by a SN (OR: 3.95; 95%CI: 1.44-10.8; p = 0.007), NIHSS (OR: 1.07; 95%CI: 1.02-1.12; p < 0.002) and lower systolic blood pressure (OR: 0.98; 95%CI: 0.96-0.99; p < 0.003) remained significant.

CONCLUSION

 Treatment by a SN resulted in a higher probability of treating the patient in a DTN time within 20 minutes.

Abstract WP169: Age And Sex Differences And Temporal Trend In Stroke Incidence In Latin America: A Systematic Review And Meta-analysis

Background: Studies suggest divergent temporal trends in stroke incidence in high income countries, with increasing rates in younger people, particularly women. No age- and sex-specific stroke incidence data are available for Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) regions, despite large populations undergoing rapid structural changes. Aim: To determine temporal trends in age and sex stroke incidence in LAC populations.

Methods: A systematic review in accordance with MOOSE and PRISMA guidelines was undertaken with a modified Cochrane Stroke Group search strategy of MEDLINE, WOS, and LILACS databases, to identify relevant references for prospective observational studies with sex-disaggregated data on stroke incidence in LAC populations from January 1997 to December 2021. Two independent reviewers screened titles/abstracts, and reviewed selected full text articles. Random-effects meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the pooled overall crude stroke incidence and relative temporal rate ratio (RTTR) by age-groups in all and sex-disaggregated data. The Joanna Briggs Institute’s risk of bias assessment was applied.

Results: Of 9242 identified records, 6 LAC studies (9 periods) were selected. Overall crude stroke incidence was higher in men than women (incidence [men:women] rate ratio [IRR] = 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.21 [I 2 =38.3%]). When analyzed for temporal trend, relative ratio of stroke incidence was greater in younger than older age-groups (<55 vs. ≥55 years; RTTR=1.65, 95%CI 1.50-1.80), before compared to after, 2010. Overall, less favorable trends occurred in women (RTTR=1.98, 95%CI 1.75-2.21) than men (RTTR=1.42, 95%CI 1.22-1.63).

Conclusions: Divergent temporal trends in stroke incidence are apparent in LAC, with less favorable trends in younger age-groups and especially in young women. Further studies are needed to understand these findings and establish strategies targeting prevention in younger populations.

Abstract WMP9: Favorable Mechanical Thrombectomy Outcomes From The Latin American Stroke Registry (lase) And Resilient Trial Compared To A 90-day Functional And Mortality Predictive Model

Introduction: Except for RESILIENT, there is a paucity of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for stroke from Latin America (LA), home to growing stroke burden. Comparison between stroke population typically suffers from baseline factor imbalances. Here, we developed outcome models from RCTs to compare Latin American Stroke Registry (LASE) with similar baselines.

Methods: LASE is a registry of patients receiving tPA and thrombectomy from 17 centers in 9 countries. A systematic review identified RCTs that provided median NIHSS, mean age, percentage of patients receiving tPA, time-to-randomization, 90d mRS0-2, and mortality. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), an information theory construct, was used to select the best model amongst 15 combinations of 4 variables. 90d outcomes of LASE and RESILIENT were compared at the baseline values against the selected model.

Results: 34 RCTs with ~8300 subjects were identified. Models based on NIHSS and the percentage of tPA were considered the most optimum in terms of AIC. In the 3D models (Fig1), the middle surface defines the function and the bounding surfaces the ±90% intervals. The LASE registry has 950 patients that received tPA alone, 127 that received tPA & mechanical thrombectomy (MT), and 101 that received MT alone. LASE & RESILIENT outcomes were plotted onto the models at their baseline values. LASE tPA alone group was on the middle surface for mRS 0-2 (Fig1-A), indicating that outcomes were in line with the RCT-informed model. MT alone (0% tPA) and MT + tPA (100%), and the RESILIENT MT arm (68.5% tPA) were above the +90% surface, indicating superior efficacy compared to no-MT. The RESILIENT control arm (71.8% tPA) had > expected mortality, suggesting harm, while mortality of all other arms was within the ±90% intervals (Fig1-B).

Conclusion: Functional outcomes and mortality of patients from the LASE that received MT and MT+tPA compared favorably to a 90-day functional and mortality predictive model.

Abstract WP14: A Patient-level Data Euclidean-matched Analysis Of Reperfusion Therapies In Acute Ischemic Stroke From The Latin American Stroke Registry (lase)

Introduction: As acute stroke therapies expand to less well-resourced regions, it is imperative to study real-world data to assess outcomes and the quality of stroke care. The present study analyzes clinical, and imaging outcomes after acute IV thrombolysis (IV-tPA) compared to mechanical thrombectomy (MT) or combined therapy in the LASE.

Methods: A retrospective analysis of consecutive acute ischemic stroke cases in 17 centers from 9 Latin American (LA) countries since 2012 was performed using weighted Euclidean matching of nearest neighbors in 3-D space of baseline NIHSS, age, and glucose.

Results: 950 patients receiving only IV-tPA were matched to 127 treated with MT+IV-tPA. Matching resulted in 97 pairs well balanced for age (69.1 vs. 69.3), baseline NIHSS (17 vs. 17), and glucose (124.3 vs. 124.5), all p>0.2. 3-month mRS 0-1 (38.3% vs 29.8%, p=0.23) and mRS 0-2 (46.8% vs 41.5%, p=0.54) were non-significantly higher in the MT+IV-tPA group, with higher hemorrhage (26.6% vs 15.5%, p=0.05) and trends for higher death (15.1% vs 9.5%, p=0.40) and symptomatic hemorrhage (7.4% vs 6.2%, p=1.0). One hundred one patients receiving only MT were matched to 127 patients with MT+IV-tPA, resulting in 61 pairs; MT+IV-tPA showed trends for higher rates of 3-month mRS 0-1 (45.0% vs 35.6%, p=0.31), mRS 0-2 (48.3% vs 42.4%, p=0.54); with trends for lower rates of death (16.9% vs 20.0%, p=1.0) and symptomatic hemorrhage (8.3% vs 11.1%, p=0.75).

Conclusions: In this real-world LA sample, trends for better functional outcomes were demonstrated with MT+IV-tPA compared to either treatment alone, as in non-LA populations. A trend for higher adverse events in the combined group requires further investigation.

Did COVID-19 impact stroke services? A multicenter study

Background

It has been reported that acute stroke services were compromised during COVID-19 due to various pandemic-related issues. We aimed to investigate these changes by recruiting centers from different countries.

Methods

Eight countries participated in this cross-sectional, observational, retrospective study by providing data from their stroke data base. We compared 1 year before to 1 year during COVID-19 as regards onset to door (OTD), door to needle (DTN), door to groin (DTG), duration of hospital stay, National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) at baseline, 24 h, and at discharge as well as modified Rankin score (mRS) on discharge and at 3 months follow-up.

Results

During the pandemic year, there was a reduction in the number of patients, median age was significantly lower, admission NIHSS was higher, hemorrhagic stroke increased, and OTD and DTG showed no difference, while DTN time was longer, rtPA administration was decreased, thrombectomy was more frequent, and hospital stay was shorter. mRS was less favorable on discharge and at 3 months.

Conclusion

COVID-19 showed variable effects on stroke services. Some were negatively impacted as the number of patients presenting to hospitals, DTN time, and stroke outcome, while others were marginally affected as the type of management.

Temporal Trends of Intravenous Thrombolysis Utilization in Acute Ischemic Stroke in a Prospective Cohort From 1998 to 2019: Modeling Based on Joinpoint Regression

Introduction

The frequency of intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) is lower than it should be in several regions of the world. It is unclear what interventions can produce significant improvements in IVT utilization. We aimed to investigate the temporal trends in IVT in AIS and identify changes in time that could be associated with specific interventions.

Methods

We included patients with AIS who were admitted from January 1998 to December 2019 in our institution. To analyze trends in utilization and time points in which they changed, we performed a Joinpoint regression analysis. Interventions were assigned to a specific category according to the Behavior Change Wheel framework intervention function criteria.

Results

A total of 3,361 patients with AIS were admitted, among which 538 (16%) received IVT. There were 245 (45.5%) women, and the mean age and median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores were 68.5 (17.2) years and 8 (interquartile range, 4–15), respectively. Thrombolysis use significantly increased by an average annual 7.6% (95% CI, 5.1–10.2), with one Joinpoint in 2007. The annual percent changes were.45% from 1998 to 2007 and 9.57% from 2007 to 2019, concurring with the stroke code organization, the definition of door-to-needle times as an institutional performance measure quality indicator, and the extension of the therapeutic window.

Conclusions

The IVT rates consistently increased due to a continuous process of protocol changes and multiple interventions. The implementation of a complex multidisciplinary intervention such as the stroke code, as well as the definition of a hospital quality control metric, were associated with a significant change in this trend.

Associations of Early Systolic Blood Pressure Control and Outcome After Thrombolysis-Eligible Acute Ischemic Stroke: Results From the ENCHANTED Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

In thrombolysis-eligible patients with acute ischemic stroke, there is uncertainty over the most appropriate systolic blood pressure (SBP) lowering profile that provides an optimal balance of potential benefit (functional recovery) and harm (intracranial hemorrhage). We aimed to determine relationships of SBP parameters and outcomes in thrombolyzed acute ischemic stroke patients.

METHODS

Post hoc analyzes of the ENCHANTED (Enhanced Control of Hypertension and Thrombolysis Stroke Study), a partial-factorial trial of thrombolysis-eligible and treated acute ischemic stroke patients with high SBP (150-180 mm Hg) assigned to low-dose (0.6 mg/kg) or standard-dose (0.9 mg/kg) alteplase and intensive (target SBP, 130-140 mm Hg) or guideline-recommended (target SBP <180 mm Hg) treatment. All patients were followed up for functional status and serious adverse events to 90 days. Logistic regression models were used to analyze 3 SBP summary measures postrandomization: attained (mean), variability (SD) in 1-24 hours, and magnitude of reduction in 1 hour. The primary outcome was a favorable shift on the modified Rankin Scale. The key safety outcome was any intracranial hemorrhage.

RESULTS

Among 4511 included participants (mean age 67 years, 38% female, 65% Asian) lower attained SBP and smaller SBP variability were associated with favorable shift on the modified Rankin Scale (per 10 mm Hg increase: odds ratio, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.71-0.82], P<0.001 and 0.86 [95% CI, 0.76-0.98], P=0.025) respectively, but not for magnitude of SBP reduction (0.98, [0.93-1.04], P=0.564). Odds of intracranial hemorrhage was associated with higher attained SBP and greater SBP variability (1.18 [1.06-1.31], P=0.002 and 1.34 [1.11-1.62], P=0.002) but not with magnitude of SBP reduction (1.05 [0.98-1.14], P=0.184).

CONCLUSIONS

Attaining early and consistent low levels in SBP <140 mm Hg, even as low as 110 to 120 mm Hg, over 24 hours is associated with better outcomes in thrombolyzed acute ischemic stroke patients.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01422616.

Risk Factors and Diet Components Determining Adherence to the Mediterranean Diet in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of a Prospective Hospital Register Study

OBJECTIVES

Low adherence to a Mediterranean diet (MeDi) is associated with increased incidence, mortality, and severity of acute ischemic strokes (AIS). Nevertheless, the explanatory factors associated with such results are unclear. Our aim was to investigate stroke risk factors associated with adherence to a MeDi in a prospective cohort of AIS patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients admitted from February 2017 to February 2020 were included in this study. Adherence was measured using the 14-point Mediterranean Diet Adherence Screener (MEDAS). Demographic and clinical characteristics were compared with adherence with a univariate analysis. A binomial regression was used to investigate the independent association of premorbid factors and MeDi components with adherence.

RESULTS

There were 413 patients. Mean age was 68.6 (17.4), 176 (42.6%) women. Median MEDAS score was 6 (IQR 4-7) points. 253 patients (61.2%) had a low adherence (MEDAS ≤ 6). In the univariate analysis, a low MEDAS was associated with lower education, diabetes, sedentary lifestyle, greater body mass index (BMI), lower alcohol consumption, and higher LDLc. In the regression analysis, younger age, lower education, functional disability, hypertension, sedentary lifestyle, and higher BMI were associated with lower MEDAS scores. Six MeDi components had particularly low patient adherence: seafood, legumes, olive oil, nuts, wine, and fruit.

DISCUSSION

These data indicate low adherence to MeDi in younger patients who are less educated and have existing cardiovascular risk factors, in particular hypertension, sedentary lifestyle, and higher BMI. Some components of the diet had a particularly low adherence.

CONCLUSIONS

Tailoring diet prevention interventions to these specific populations, focusing on components with known less adherence, could improve adherence to a MeDi and the opportunity for secondary stroke prevention.

Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels.

METHODS

We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0-13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2-111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133-153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00-7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8-12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1-6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0-73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0-88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0-55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0-42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0-18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0-7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0-24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0-18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5-3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5-3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57-8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97-3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01-1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7-90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2-62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3-48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7-33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8-41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8-29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4-33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6-23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6-28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4-19·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Oxygen desaturation and adverse outcomes in acute stroke: Secondary analysis of the HeadPoST study

OBJECTIVE

Uncertainty exists over the prognostic significance of low arterial oxygen saturation (SaO₂) in acute stroke. We aimed to determine the strength of association of SaO₂ and adverse outcomes among participants of the international Head Positioning in acute Stroke Trial (HeadPoST).

METHODS

Post-hoc analyzes of HeadPoST, a pragmatic cluster-crossover randomized trial of lying flat versus sitting up head positioning in 11,093 patients (age ≥18 years) with acute stroke at 114 hospitals in 9 countries during 2015-2016. Associations of the lowest recorded SaO₂ level, as a continuous measure and as a cut-point for desaturation (SaO₂ <93%), in the first 24 h and clinical outcomes of death or dependency (modified Rankin scale [mRS] scores 3-6) and any serious adverse event (SAE) at 90 days, were assessed in generalized linear mixed models adjusted for baseline and in-hospital management confounders.

RESULTS

There was an inverse J-shaped association between SaO₂ and death or dependency, with a nadir for optimal outcome at 96-97%. Patients with SaO₂ desaturation were older, and had greater neurological impairment, premorbid disability and cardiorespiratory disease. Desaturation was not clearly associated with death or dependency (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.95-1.48) but was with SAEs (aOR 1.34, 95% CI 1.07-1.68), without heterogeneity by head position, cardiac-respiratory comorbidity, or other pre-specified subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

Any change in SaO₂ outside of 96-97% is associated with poorer outcome after acute stroke.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

HeadPoST is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02162017).

COVID-19 Lockdown Effects on Acute Stroke Care in Latin America

Objectives

COVID-19 pandemic has forced important changes in health care worldwide. Stroke care networks have been affected, especially during peak periods. We assessed the impact of the pandemic and lockdowns in stroke admissions and care in Latin America.

Materials and Methods

A multinational study (7 countries, 18 centers) of patients admitted during the pandemic outbreak (March-June 2020). Comparisons were made with the same period in 2019. Numbers of cases, stroke etiology and severity, acute care and hospitalization outcomes were assessed.

Results

Most countries reported mild decreases in stroke admissions compared to the same period of 2019 (1187 vs. 1166, p = 0.03). Among stroke subtypes, there was a reduction in ischemic strokes (IS) admissions (78.3% vs. 73.9%, p = 0.01) compared with 2019, especially in IS with NIHSS 0–5 (50.1% vs. 44.9%, p = 0.03). A substantial increase in the proportion of stroke admissions beyond 48 h from symptoms onset was observed (13.8% vs. 20.5%, p < 0.001). Nevertheless, no differences in total reperfusion treatment rates were observed, with similar door-to-needle, door-to-CT, and door-to-groin times in both periods. Other stroke outcomes, as all-type mortality during hospitalization (4.9% vs. 9.7%, p < 0.001), length of stay (IQR 1–5 days vs. 0–9 days, p < 0.001), and likelihood to be discharged home (91.6% vs. 83.0%, p < 0.001), were compromised during COVID-19 lockdown period.

Conclusions

In this Latin America survey, there was a mild decrease in admissions of IS during the COVID-19 lockdown period, with a significant delay in time to consultations and worse hospitalization outcomes.

Effects of an Avocado-based Mediterranean Diet on Serum Lipids for Secondary Prevention after Ischemic Stroke Trial (ADD-SPISE): Study protocol

BACKGROUND:

A poor or unhealthy diet is responsible for an important fraction of ischemic stroke risk. Adherence to dietary patterns, such as the Mediterranean diet, rich in monounsaturated fatty acids mainly from olive oil, is associated with a lower stroke risk. Furthermore, lowering low-density cholesterol (LDL-C) levels decreases stroke recurrence. Interestingly, Avocado-substituted diets, which are also rich in monounsaturated fatty acids, significantly decrease LDL cholesterol levels. This study aims to evaluate whether a Mediterranean diet based on Avocados reduces LDL-C compared to a low-fat high-complex carbohydrate diet after 3 months of the intervention in patients who had a recent acute ischemic stroke. The trial will also assess safety and feasibility.

PATIENTS AND METHODS:

Prospective, randomized open-label, blinded outcome assessment clinical trial. Participants are patients within a month of being admitted with an ischemic stroke, who consent and fulfil the eligibility criteria. Patients are randomly assigned to either diet intervention in a 1:1 ratio on top of the usual secondary prevention treatment. The intervention diet is: A).. Avocado-based Mediterranean diet with intake of 1/2 portion of Avocado per day and B).. The control diet is a low-fat high-complex carbohydrate diet. The main efficacy outcome is a reduction in plasma LDL-C levels at 3 months of the dietary intervention. Secondary outcomes include changes in the levels of serum lipid profile and serum inflammation markers, safety, and feasibility. A sample size of 200 patients was estimated to provide 80% power and 5% level of significance (10% loss and 5% crossover) to detect a minimum difference of 4.6 mg/dL in LDL-C after 3 months of intervention.

CONCLUSION:

We hypothesize that an Avocado-based Mediterranean diet will further reduce the levels of LDL-cholesterol at 3 months compared to the control diet, and that the intervention is safe and feasible.

REGISTRATION:

The study is registered under ADDSPISE at www.clinicaltrials.gov. Identifier NCT03524742. Protocol ID CAS-605 version 3.0 (May 2nd, 2019).

Global Impact of COVID-19 on Stroke Care and IV Thrombolysis

OBJECTIVE

To measure the global impact of COVID-19 pandemic on volumes of IV thrombolysis (IVT), IVT transfers, and stroke hospitalizations over 4 months at the height of the pandemic (March 1 to June 30, 2020) compared with 2 control 4-month periods.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional, observational, retrospective study across 6 continents, 70 countries, and 457 stroke centers. Diagnoses were identified by their ICD-10 codes or classifications in stroke databases.

RESULTS

There were 91,373 stroke admissions in the 4 months immediately before compared to 80,894 admissions during the pandemic months, representing an 11.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] -11.7 to -11.3, p < 0.0001) decline. There were 13,334 IVT therapies in the 4 months preceding compared to 11,570 procedures during the pandemic, representing a 13.2% (95% CI -13.8 to -12.7, p < 0.0001) drop. Interfacility IVT transfers decreased from 1,337 to 1,178, or an 11.9% decrease (95% CI -13.7 to -10.3, p = 0.001). Recovery of stroke hospitalization volume (9.5%, 95% CI 9.2-9.8, p < 0.0001) was noted over the 2 later (May, June) vs the 2 earlier (March, April) pandemic months. There was a 1.48% stroke rate across 119,967 COVID-19 hospitalizations. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection was noted in 3.3% (1,722/52,026) of all stroke admissions.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a global decline in the volume of stroke hospitalizations, IVT, and interfacility IVT transfers. Primary stroke centers and centers with higher COVID-19 inpatient volumes experienced steeper declines. Recovery of stroke hospitalization was noted in the later pandemic months.

Global impact of COVID-19 on stroke care

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic led to profound changes in the organization of health care systems worldwide.

Aims

We sought to measure the global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the volumes for mechanical thrombectomy, stroke, and intracranial hemorrhage hospitalizations over a three-month period at the height of the pandemic (1 March–31 May 2020) compared with two control three-month periods (immediately preceding and one year prior).

Methods

Retrospective, observational, international study, across 6 continents, 40 countries, and 187 comprehensive stroke centers. The diagnoses were identified by their ICD-10 codes and/or classifications in stroke databases at participating centers.

Results

The hospitalization volumes for any stroke, intracranial hemorrhage, and mechanical thrombectomy were 26,699, 4002, and 5191 in the three months immediately before versus 21,576, 3540, and 4533 during the first three pandemic months, representing declines of 19.2% (95%CI, −19.7 to −18.7), 11.5% (95%CI, −12.6 to −10.6), and 12.7% (95%CI, −13.6 to −11.8), respectively. The decreases were noted across centers with high, mid, and low COVID-19 hospitalization burden, and also across high, mid, and low volume stroke/mechanical thrombectomy centers. High-volume COVID-19 centers (−20.5%) had greater declines in mechanical thrombectomy volumes than mid- (−10.1%) and low-volume (−8.7%) centers (p < 0.0001). There was a 1.5% stroke rate across 54,366 COVID-19 hospitalizations. SARS-CoV-2 infection was noted in 3.9% (784/20,250) of all stroke admissions.

Conclusion

The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a global decline in the volume of overall stroke hospitalizations, mechanical thrombectomy procedures, and intracranial hemorrhage admission volumes. Despite geographic variations, these volume reductions were observed regardless of COVID-19 hospitalization burden and pre-pandemic stroke/mechanical thrombectomy volumes.

Decline in subarachnoid haemorrhage volumes associated with the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic

Background

During the COVID-19 pandemic, decreased volumes of stroke admissions and mechanical thrombectomy were reported. The study’s objective was to examine whether subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) hospitalisations and ruptured aneurysm coiling interventions demonstrated similar declines.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional, retrospective, observational study across 6 continents, 37 countries and 140 comprehensive stroke centres. Patients with the diagnosis of SAH, aneurysmal SAH, ruptured aneurysm coiling interventions and COVID-19 were identified by prospective aneurysm databases or by International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, codes. The 3-month cumulative volume, monthly volumes for SAH hospitalisations and ruptured aneurysm coiling procedures were compared for the period before (1 year and immediately before) and during the pandemic, defined as 1 March–31 May 2020. The prior 1-year control period (1 March–31 May 2019) was obtained to account for seasonal variation.

Findings

There was a significant decline in SAH hospitalisations, with 2044 admissions in the 3 months immediately before and 1585 admissions during the pandemic, representing a relative decline of 22.5% (95% CI −24.3% to −20.7%, p<0.0001). Embolisation of ruptured aneurysms declined with 1170–1035 procedures, respectively, representing an 11.5% (95%CI −13.5% to −9.8%, p=0.002) relative drop. Subgroup analysis was noted for aneurysmal SAH hospitalisation decline from 834 to 626 hospitalisations, a 24.9% relative decline (95% CI −28.0% to −22.1%, p<0.0001). A relative increase in ruptured aneurysm coiling was noted in low coiling volume hospitals of 41.1% (95% CI 32.3% to 50.6%, p=0.008) despite a decrease in SAH admissions in this tertile.

Interpretation

There was a relative decrease in the volume of SAH hospitalisations, aneurysmal SAH hospitalisations and ruptured aneurysm embolisations during the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings in SAH are consistent with a decrease in other emergencies, such as stroke and myocardial infarction.

Abstract P385: Stroke-Related Hospital Admissions During Covid-19 Pandemic in the Latin American Stroke Registry (LASE)

Background: COVID-19 pandemic has forced important changes in health care worldwide. Stroke care networks have been affected, especially acute admissions and ancillary tests availability. We assessed the impact of the pandemic and the lockdowns imposed in stroke admissions in Latin America.

Methods: A multinational study (7 countries, 18 centers) of patients admitted since the pandemic outbreak (January - June 2020). These cases were compared with the same period in 2019. We also assessed patterns during the strictest lockdown period (March-June 2020). Number of cases, stroke etiology and severity, acute care and functional outcomes were compared per periods, months, centers and countries.

Results: There were 1863 stroke cases in 2019 and 1781 cases in 2020 (p=0.02). We found a significant increase in strokes of undetermined etiology due to incomplete studies in 2020 [16.8% vs 27.6%, p<0.001]). Most countries reported decreases in all-type stroke admissions, except México and Brasil (16% and 36% increases in admissions, respectively). There were no significant differences among months. All-type mortality increased (6.2% vs. 12.6%, p<0.001), and poor functional outcome (mRs 3-6) increased from 32.2% to 38.8% (p=0.007) in 2020. During the period of strict lockdown (March-June 2020), ischemic stroke admissions during the first 24 hours of onset (68.3% vs. 64.4%, p=0.1) and in-hospital stroke code activation (35.1% vs. 27.6%, p=0.005) diminished compared to 2019 period. No differences in total reperfusion treatment rates were observed, with similar door-to-needle and door-to-groin times in both periods.

Conclusions: All-type stroke admissions diminished only slightly during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, in this region, we found substantial deficiencies in stroke work-up, poor short-term outcome and increased mortality.

Abstract P84: Covid-19 and Stroke in the Latin American Stroke Registry (LASE)

Background: Ischemic stroke has been reported to occur in approximately 5% of COVID-19 patients, although some reports are contradictory. Proposed mechanisms of this association are hypercoagulable state, vasculitis and cardiomyopathy, together with traditional vascular risk factors. We analyzed the frequency and clinical characteristics of COVID-19 positive stroke cases during the first months of the pandemic in Latin America.

Methods: A multinational study (7 countries, 18 centers) of patients admitted during the pandemic outbreak (March - June 2020). We assessed acute stroke cases associated to COVID-19 infection. Clinical characteristics, stroke etiology and severity, acute care and functional outcomes, were compared between non-COVID-19 and COVID-19 cases.

Results: There were a total of 1037 stroke cases; sixty-two of them (6.0%) were diagnosed with COVID-19 infection. This group consisted of 38 men [61.3%], with a median age of 68 years [IQR 59-79 years]. From these cases, 80.6% were ischemic stroke, 16.1% hemorrhagic stroke, and 1.6% transient ischemic attack and cerebral venous thrombosis respectively. The most common etiology reported for ischemic cases was atherosclerotic large vessel occlusion (30.6% vs. 12.7% in non-COVID cases, p<0.001), and undetermined etiology for hemorrhagic stroke (55.6%). Median NIHSS for COVID-stroke patients was higher (7 IQR 2-16 vs. 5 IQR 2-11, p=0.05). Five (8.1%) patients received acute reperfusion therapy, with no differences in door-to-CT, door-to-needle and door-to-groin times, compared to non-COVID cases. Most characteristics did not differ from those of COVID-19 negative patients. Mortality was higher in COVID-stroke cases (20.9% vs. 9.6%, p<0.001).

Conclusions: COVID-19 infection frequency in stroke patients in Latin America is similar to that reported in several series worldwide, with a higher frequency of atherosclerotic ischemic strokes and mortality compared to non COVID-19 strokes

Low blood pressure and adverse outcomes in acute stroke: HeadPoST study explanations

OBJECTIVE

As uncertainties exist over underlying causes, we aimed to define the characteristics and prognostic significance of low blood pressure (BP) early after the onset of acute stroke.

METHODS

Post hoc analyzes of the international Head Positioning in acute Stroke Trial (HeadPoST), a pragmatic cluster-crossover randomized trial of lying flat versus sitting up in stroke patients from nine countries during 2015-2016. Associations of baseline BP and death or dependency [modified Rankin scale (mRS) scores 3-6] and serious adverse events (SAEs) at 90 days were assessed in generalized linear mixed models with adjustment for multiple confounders. SBP and DBP was analysed as continuous measures fitted with a cubic spline, and as categorical measures with low (<10th percentile) and high (≥140 and ≥90 mmHg, respectively) levels compared with a normal range (≥10th percentile; 120-139 and 70-89 mmHg, respectively).

RESULTS

Among 11 083 patients (mean age 68 years, 39.9% women) with baseline BP values, 7.2 and 11.7% had low SBP (<120 mmHg) and DBP (<70 mmHg), respectively. Patients with low SBP were more likely to have preexisting cardiac and ischemic stroke and functional impairment, and to present earlier with more severe neurological impairment than other patients. Nonlinear 'J-shaped' relationships of BP and poor outcome were apparent: compared with normal SBP, those with low SBP had worse functional outcome (adjusted odds ratio 1.27, 95% confidence interval 1.02-1.58) and more SAEs, particularly cardiac events, with adjustment for potential confounders to minimize reverse causation. The findings were consistent for DBP and were stronger for ischemic rather than hemorrhagic stroke.

CONCLUSION

The prognostic significance of low BP on poor outcomes in acute stroke was not explained by reverse causality from preexisting cardiovascular disease, and propensity towards greater neurological deficits and cardiac events. These findings provide support for the hypothesis that low BP exacerbates cardiac and cerebral ischemia in acute ischemic stroke.

Smoking influences outcome in patients who had thrombolysed ischaemic stroke: the ENCHANTED study

Background and purpose

As studies vary in defining the prognostic significance of smoking in acute ischaemic stroke (AIS), we aimed to determine the relation of smoking and key outcomes in patient participants who had thrombolysed AIS of the international quasi-factorial randomised Enhanced Control of Hypertension and Thrombolysis Stroke Study (ENCHANTED).

Methods

Post-hoc analyses of ENCHANTED, an international quasi-factorial randomised evaluation of intravenous alteplase-dose comparison and levels of blood pressure control in patients who had thrombolysed AIS. Multivariable logistic regression models with inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) propensity scores were used to determine associations of self-reported smoking status and clinical outcomes, according to 90-day modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores and symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage (sICH).

Results

Of 4540 patients who had an AIS, there were 1008 (22.2%) current smokers who were younger and predominantly male, with more comorbidities of hypertension, coronary artery disease, atrial fibrillation and diabetes mellitus, and greater baseline neurological impairment, compared with non-smokers. In univariate analysis, current smokers had a higher likelihood of a favourable shift in mRS scores (OR 0.88, 95% CI 0.77 to 0.99; p=0.038) but this association reversed in a fully adjusted model with IPTW (adjusted OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.28; p=0.009). A similar trend was also apparent for dichotomised poor outcome (mRS scores 2–6: OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.33; p=0.007), but not with the risk of sICH across standard criteria.

Conclusion

Smoking predicts poor functional recovery in patients who had thrombolysed AIS.

Trial registration number

NCT01422616.

Influence of Including Patients with Premorbid Disability in Acute Stroke Trials: The HeadPoST Experience

BACKGROUND

Patients with premorbid functional impairment are generally excluded from acute stroke trials. We aimed to determine the impact of including such patients in the Head Positioning in acute Stroke Trial (HeadPoST) and early additional impairment on outcomes.

METHODS

Post hoc analyses of HeadPoST, an international, cluster-randomized crossover trial of lying-flat versus sitting-up head positioning in acute stroke. Associations of early additional impairment, defined as change in modified Rankin scale (mRS) scores from premorbid levels (estimated at baseline) to Day 7 ("early ΔmRS"), and poor outcome (mRS score 3-6) at Day 90 were determined with generalized linear mixed model. Heterogeneity of the trial treatment effect was tested according to premorbid mRS scores 0-1 versus 2-5.

RESULTS

Of 8,285 patients (38.9% female, mean age 68 ± 13 years) with complete data, there were 1,984 (23.9%) with premorbid functional impairment (mRS 2-5). A significant linear association was evident for early ∆mRS and poor outcome (per 1-point increase in ΔmRS, adjusted odds ratio 1.20, 95% confidence interval 1.14-1.27; p < 0.0001). Patients with greater premorbid functional impairment were less likely to develop additional impairment, but their risk of poor 90-day outcome significantly increased with increasing (worse) premorbid mRS scores (linear trend p < 0.0001). There was no heterogeneity of the trial treatment effect by level of premorbid function.

CONCLUSIONS

Early poststroke functional impairment that exceeded premorbid levels was associated with worse 90-day outcome, and this association increased with greater premorbid functional impairment. Yet, including premorbid impaired patients in the HeadPoST did not materially affect the subsequent treatment effect.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

HeadPoST is registered at http://www.ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02162017).

[Determinants of door to needle time for intravenous thrombolysis in acute ischemic stroke]

BACKGROUND

Intravenous thrombolysis (IT) in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) is time dependent. The time elapsed from hospital admission to the thrombolytic bolus is named door to needle time (DNT) and is recommend to be of less than 60 min.

AIM

To describe the DNT in our center and determine those factors associated with a DNT longer than 60 min.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Prospective analysis of patients treated with IT at a private hospital between June 2016 and June 2019. The percentage of patients with DNT exceeding 60 min, and the causes for this delay were evaluated.

RESULTS

IT was used in 205 patients. DNT was 43.6 ± 23.8 min. Forty patients (19.5% (95% CI, 14.4-25.7), had a DNT longer than 60 min. Uni-varied analysis demonstrated that AIS with infratentorial symptomatology (ITS), was significantly associated with DNTs exceeding 60 min. A history of hypertension, a higher NIH Stroke Scale score, the presence of an hyperdense sign in brain tomography (p = 0.001) and the need for endovascular therapy (p = 0.019), were associated with DNT shorter than 60 min. Multivariate analysis ratified the relationship between ITS and DNT longer than 60 min (Odds ratio: 3.19, 95% confidence intervals 1.26-8).

CONCLUSIONS

The individual elements that correlated with a DNT longer than 60 min were the failure to detect the AIS during triage and doubts about its diagnosis.

Transcranial Doppler as a Predictor of Ischemic Events in Vertebral Artery Dissection

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Transcranial Doppler (TCD) helps identify patients with carotid dissections at risk of ischemic events (IEs). There is paucity of data identifying independent predictors of IE in vertebral arterial dissection (VAD). We sought to investigate the clinical and ultrasound predictors of IE.

METHODS

Patients with VAD admitted between June 2017 and February 2020 were evaluated clinically and with TCD; sonographic curves, microembolic signals (MES), and the breath-holding index (BHI) test were applied. Covariates found on univariate screen (P < .25) were included in a multivariable linear regression to identify independent predictors of IEs.

RESULTS

Of 88 patients with 100 VAD, 75 (85.2%) were females with a mean age 37.9 ± 7.5 years. All patients received antiplatelet treatment. TCD monitoring lasted an average of 21 ± 2.1 minutes. TCD was abnormal in 23 cases (26.1%); 21 patients had abnormal sonographic curves in the vertebral/basilar arteries, while in 4 cases, MES were present and in 5 (4.5%), BHI was abnormal. None of the patients with a normal TCD had an IE. Six strokes occurred during follow up. On univariate analysis, male sex, diabetes, dyslipidemia, a previous myocardial infarct, migraine, time of consultation to the ER, bilateral VAD, MES, BHI abnormalities, post stenotic flow in the basilar artery (PFB), and basilar/vertebral velocities were significantly associated with the risk of IEs. In the multivariate analysis, only the presence of PFB was a significant predictor of IE (OR: 68.6, 95% CI 5-937, <.001).

CONCLUSIONS

TCD in VAD predicts patients at high risk of IE.

No benefit of flat head positioning in early moderate-severe acute ischaemic stroke: a HeadPoST study subgroup analysis

Background

Although the Head Positioning in acute Stroke Trial (HeadPoST) showed no effect of the flat head position (FP; vs sitting up head position (SUP)) on functional outcome, we hypothesised that it could still offer benefits if commenced early in those with acute ischaemic stroke (AIS) of at least moderate severity.

Methods

Subgroup analysis of HeadPoST in participants with National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores ≥7, ≥10 and ≥14, randomised to FP or SUP <4.5 hours of AIS onset on functional outcomes defined by a shift in scores on the modified Rankin scale (mRS) and death/disability (mRS scores 3–6), and any cardiovascular serious adverse event. Logistic regression analyses were undertaken adjusted for study design and baseline risk factors.

Results

There was no significant differential treatment effect in patient subgroups defined by increasing baseline NIHSS scores: adjusted OR and 95% CI for ordinal shift and binary (3–6) mRS scores: for NIHSS ≥7 (n=867) 0.92 (0.67 to 1.25) and 0.74 (0.52 to 1.04); NIHSS ≥ 10 (n=606) 0.80 (0.58 to 1.10) and 0.77 (0.49 to 1.19); NIHSS ≥14 (n=378) 0.82 (0.54 to 1.24) and 1.22 (0.69 to 2.14).

Conclusions

Early FP had no significant effect in patients with moderate–severe AIS.

Trial registration number

NCT02162017.

Pre-stroke adherence to a Mediterranean diet pattern is associated with lower acute ischemic stroke severity: a cross-sectional analysis of a prospective hospital-register study

Background

High adherence to a Mediterranean Diet is associated with reduced incidence and mortality of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) but may also be associated with severity. Our purpose was to investigate the association of adherence to a Mediterranean diet and severity in a prospective hospital register of AIS patients.

Methods

We included AIS patients admitted from February 2017 to July 2019. All were assessed by a neurologist with a standard stroke protocol, including NIHSS. Adherence to Mediterranean diet was prospectively measured by the 14-point Mediterranean Diet Adherence Screener (MEDAS) and defined as low (0–6 points) or high (7–14 points). Demographic and clinical characteristics were compared by group with univariate analysis. A Generalized Linear Model (GLM) was used to investigate the association of admission NIHSS as a continuous ordinal variable and an ordinal logistic regression (OLR) analysis to determine the independent association of the NIHSS quartiles with adherence to Mediterranean diet.

Results

Three hundred sixty-eight patients were included, mean age 68.3 (17.7), 158 (42.9%) females. The median NIHSS score was 3 (IQR 1–9) and the median MEDAS score was 6 (IQR 4.5–8). Patients with high MEDAS scores had significantly lower; admission NIHSS scores, sedentary lifestyle, body mass index, total and LDL cholesterol levels, but higher alcohol consumption. After adjustments, high adherence to Mediterranean diet remained independently associated with lower stroke severity both in the GLM (β coefficient = − 0.19, p = 0.01) and in the OLR model (OR for lower NIHSS quartiles 0.6 (95% CI 0.37–0.98, p = 0.04).

Conclusions

Higher pre-stroke adherence to a Mediterranean diet is independently associated with lower AIS severity.

Prognostic significance of early urinary catheterization after acute stroke: Secondary analyses of the international HeadPoST trial

BACKGROUND

An indwelling urinary catheter (IUC) is often inserted to manage bladder dysfunction, but its impact on prognosis is uncertain. We aimed to determine the association of IUC use on clinical outcomes after acute stroke in the international, multi-center, cluster crossover, Head Positioning in Acute Stroke Trial (HeadPoST).

METHODS

Data were analyzed on HeadPoST participants (n = 11,093) randomly allocated to the lying-flat or sitting-up head position. Binomial, logistic regression, hierarchical mixed models were used to determine associations of early insertion of IUC within seven days post-randomization and outcomes of death or disability (defined as "poor outcome," scores 3-6 on the modified Rankin scale) and any urinary tract infection at 90 days with adjustment of baseline and post-randomization management covariates.

RESULTS

Overall, 1167 (12%) patients had an IUC, but the frequency and duration of use varied widely across patients in different regions. IUC use was more frequent in older patients, and those with vascular comorbidity, greater initial neurological impairment (on the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale), and intracerebral hemorrhage as the underlying stroke type. IUC use was independently associated with poor outcome (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.40, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.13-1.74), but not with urinary tract infection after adjustment for antibiotic treatment and stroke severity at hospital separation (aOR: 1.13, 95% CI: 0.59-2.18). The number exposed to IUC for poor outcome was 13.

CONCLUSIONS

IUC use is associated with a poor outcome after acute stroke. Further studies are required to inform appropriate use of IUC.

Validation of the simplified modified Rankin scale for stroke trials: Experience from the ENCHANTED alteplase-dose arm

Background and aims

The structured, simplified modified Rankin scale questionnaire (smRSq) may increase reliability over the interrogative approach to scoring the modified Rankin scale (mRS) in acute stroke research and practice. During the conduct of the alteplase-dose arm of the international ENhanced Control of Hypertension ANd Thrombolysis StrokE stuDy (ENCHANTED), we had an opportunity to compare each of these approaches to outcome measurement.

Methods

Baseline demographic data were recorded together with the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). Follow-up measures obtained at 90 days included mRS, smRSq, and the 5-Dimension European Quality of life scale (EQ-5D). Agreements between smRSq and mRS were assessed with the Kappa statistic. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify baseline predictors of Day 90 smRSq and mRS scores. Treatment effects, based on Day 90 smRSq/mRS scores, were tested in logistic and ordinal logistic regression models.

Results

SmRSq and mRS scores had good agreement (weighted Kappa 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.78–0.81), while variables of age, atrial fibrillation, diabetes mellitus, pre-morbid mRS (1 vs. 0), baseline NIHSS scores, and imaging signs of cerebral ischemia, similarly predicted their scores. Odds ratios for death or disability, and ordinal shift, 90-day mRS scores using smRSq were 1.05 (95% CI 0.91–1.20; one-sided P = 0.23 for non-inferiority) and 0.98 (95% CI 0.87–1.11; P = 0.02 for non-inferiority), similar to those using mRS.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates the utility of the smRSq in a large, ethnically diverse clinical trial population. Scoring of the smRSq shows adequate agreement with the standard mRS, thus confirming it is a reliable, valid, and useful alternative measure of functional status after acute ischemic stroke.

Clinical Trial registration

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT01422616.

Impact of Low Ankle-Brachial Index on the Risk of Recurrent Vascular Events

Background and Purpose- Low ankle-brachial index (ABI) identifies a stroke subgroup with high risk of recurrent stroke, cardiovascular events, and death. However, limited data exist on the relationship between low ABI and stroke in low and middle-income countries. Therefore, we evaluated the prevalence of ABI ≤0.90 (which is diagnostic of peripheral artery disease) in nonembolic stroke patients or transient ischemic attack and assessed the correlation of low ABI with stroke risk, factors, and recurrent vascular events and death. Methods- Patients ≥45 years with acute transient ischemic attack or minor ischemic strokes were recruited consecutively from over 17 low-income and middle-income countries (Latin America [1543 patients], Middle East [1041 patients], North Africa [834 patients], and South Africa [217 patients]). The ABI measurement was performed at a single visit. Stroke recurrence and risk of new vascular events were assessed after 24 months of follow-up. Results- Among 3487 enrolled patients, abnormal ABI (<0.9) was present in 22.3 %. Patients with an ABI of ≤0.9 were more likely ( P<0.05) to be male, older, and have a history of peripheral artery disease, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus. During 2-year follow-up, the rate of major cardiovascular event was higher in patients with ABI <0.9 than those with ABI ≥0.9 (Kaplan-Meier estimates, 22.5%; 95% CI, 19.6-25.8 versus 13.7%; 21.4-15.1; P<0.001), and when ABI was categorized into 4 groups (≤0.6; 95% CI, 0.6-0.9; 0.9-1; 1-1.4), the rate of major cardiovascular event was higher in those with ABI ≤0.6 than the other groups (Kaplan-Meier estimates, 32.6%; 95% CI, 21.0-48.3 for ABI≤0.6 versus 21.7%; 95% CI, 18.8-25.0 for ABI 0.6-0.9 versus 14.3%; 95% CI, 12.4-16.6 for ABI 0.9-1 versus 13.3%; 95% CI, 11.6-15.2 for ABI 1-1.4; P<0.001). Conclusions- Among patients with nonembolic ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack, those with low ABI had a higher rate of vascular events and death in this population. Screening for ABI in stroke patients may help identify patients at high risk of future events.

Ethnicity and Other Determinants of Quality of Functional Outcome in Acute Ischemic Stroke: The ENCHANTED Trial

Background and Purpose- Patient-centered outcomes are important. We aimed to determine predictors of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and develop utility-weighted modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores in thrombolyzed acute ischemic stroke patients from both arms of ENCHANTED (Enhanced Control of Hypertension and Thrombolysis Stroke Study). Methods- ENCHANTED was an international quasi-factorial clinical trial of different doses of intravenous alteplase and intensities of blood pressure control in acute ischemic stroke patients, with outcomes on the 5-Dimensional European Quality of Life Scale and mRS assessed at 90 days post-randomization. Logistic regression models were used to identify baseline predictors of poor HRQoL (≤mean 5-Dimensional European Quality of Life Scale utility scores). Ordinary least squares regression derived utility-weighted mRS scores. Results- In 4016 acute ischemic stroke patients with complete 5-Dimensional European Quality of Life Scale and mRS data, independent predictors of poor HRQoL were older age (odds ratio, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.12-1.27], per 10-year increase), non-Asian ethnicity (1.91 [1.61-2.27]), greater stroke severity on the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (1.11 [1.09-1.12]), diabetes mellitus (1.41 [1.18-1.69]), premorbid disability (mRS score 1 versus 0; 1.62 [1.33-1.97]), large vessel atheromatous pathogenesis (1.32 [1.12-1.54]), and proxy respondent (2.35 [2.01-2.74]). Sensitivity analyses indicate the ethnicity influence on HRQoL was driven by the high proportion of Chinese (62.9% of Asian) participants with better HRQoL compared with non-Chinese or other Asian groups. Derived utility values across mRS scores 0 to 5 were 0.977, 0.885, 0.748, 0.576, 0.194, and -0.174, respectively. Correlations between mRS and 5-Dimensional European Quality of Life Scale scores were stronger in Asians. Conclusions- HRQoL is worse after thrombolyzed acute ischemic stroke in the elderly, non-Asians, with greater initial severity, diabetes mellitus, premorbid disability, due to large vessel atheroma, and proxy assessment. The broader significance of better HRQoL in Asians is tempered by Chinese participants dominating analyses. From utility-weighted mRS scores indicating the greatest steps in mRS scores are between 5 and 3, treatments to avoid major disability provide the greatest benefits for patients. Registration- URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01422616.

Interaction of Blood Pressure Lowering and Alteplase Dose in Acute Ischemic Stroke: Results of the Enhanced Control of Hypertension and Thrombolysis Stroke Study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the extent to which the effects of intensive blood pressure (BP) lowering are modified by doses of alteplase in thrombolysis-eligible acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients.

METHODS

Prespecified analyses of the Enhanced Control of Hypertension and Thrombolysis Stroke Study for patients enrolled in both arms: (i) low-dose (0.6 mg/kg body weight) or standard-dose (0.9 mg/kg) alteplase and (ii) intensive (target systolic BP [SBP] 130-140 mm Hg) or guideline-recommended (target SBP <180 mm Hg) BP management. The primary outcome was functional recovery, measured by a shift in scores on modified Rankin scale at 90 days. The safety outcome was any intracranial hemorrhage (ICH).

RESULTS

There were 925 participants (mean age 67 years, 39% female, 77% Asian) randomized to both arms: 242 randomly assigned to guideline/standard-dose (GS); 234 to guideline/low-dose (GL); 227 to intensive/standard-dose (IS); and 222 to intensive/low-dose (IL). Overall, average SBP levels within 24 h were lower in the low-dose compared to standard-dose alteplase group (146 and 144 vs. 151 and 150 mm Hg, for GS and GL vs. IS and IL, respectively, p < 0.0001). There was no heterogeneity of the effects of BP lowering (intensive vs. guideline) on functional recovery between standard-dose (OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.59-1.12) and low-dose alteplase (1.06, 0.77-1.47; p = 0.25 for interaction). Similar results were observed for ICH (p = 0.50 for interaction).

CONCLUSIONS

In thrombolysis-treated patients with predominantly mild-to-moderate severity AIS, intensive BP lowering neither improve functional recovery, either with low- or standard-dose intravenous alteplase, nor beneficially interact with low-dose alteplase in reducing ICH.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01422616).

Impact of Evidence-Based Stroke Care on Patient Outcomes: A Multilevel Analysis of an International Study

Background

The uptake of proven stroke treatments varies widely. We aimed to determine the association of evidence‐based processes of care for acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and clinical outcome of patients who participated in the HEADPOST (Head Positioning in Acute Stroke Trial), a multicenter cluster crossover trial of lying flat versus sitting up, head positioning in acute stroke.

Methods and Results

Use of 8 AIS processes of care were considered: reperfusion therapy in eligible patients; acute stroke unit care; antihypertensive, antiplatelet, statin, and anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation; dysphagia assessment; and physiotherapist review. Hierarchical, mixed, logistic regression models were performed to determine associations with good outcome (modified Rankin Scale scores 0–2) at 90 days, adjusted for patient and hospital variables. Among 9485 patients with AIS, implementation of all processes of care in eligible patients, or “defect‐free” care, was associated with improved outcome (odds ratio, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.18–1.65) and better survival (odds ratio, 2.23; 95% CI, 1.62–3.09). Defect‐free stroke care was also significantly associated with excellent outcome (modified Rankin Scale score 0–1) (odds ratio, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.04–1.43). No hospital characteristic was independently predictive of outcome. Only 1445 (15%) of eligible patients with AIS received all processes of care, with significant regional variations in overall and individual rates.

Conclusions

Use of evidence‐based care is associated with improved clinical outcome in AIS. Strategies are required to address regional variation in the use of proven AIS treatments.

Clinical Trial Registration

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique Identifier: NCT02162017.

Dysphagia screening and risks of pneumonia and adverse outcomes after acute stroke: An international multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Dysphagia is associated with aspiration pneumonia after stroke. Data are limited on the influences of dysphagia screen and assessment in clinical practice.

AIMS

To determine associations between a "brief" screen and "detailed" assessment of dysphagia on clinical outcomes in acute stroke patients.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study analyzed retrospectively using data from a multicenter, cluster cross-over, randomized controlled trial (Head Positioning in Acute Stroke Trial [HeadPoST]) from 114 hospitals in nine countries. HeadPoST included 11,093 acute stroke patients randomized to lying-flat or sitting-up head positioning. Herein, we report predefined secondary analyses of the association of dysphagia screening and assessment and clinical outcomes of pneumonia and death or disability (modified Rankin scale 3-6) at 90 days.

RESULTS

Overall, 8784 (79.2%) and 3917 (35.3%) patients were screened and assessed for dysphagia, respectively, but the frequency and timing for each varied widely across regions. Neither use of a screen nor an assessment for dysphagia was associated with the outcomes, but their results were compared to "screen-pass" patients, those who failed had higher risks of pneumonia (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 3.00, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.18-4.10) and death or disability (aOR = 1.66, 95% CI = 1.41-1.95). Similar results were evidence for the results of an assessment for dysphagia. Subsequent feeding restrictions were related to higher risk of pneumonia in patients failed dysphagia screen or assessment (aOR = 4.06, 95% CI = 1.72-9.54).

CONCLUSIONS

Failing a dysphagia screen is associated with increased risks of pneumonia and poor clinical outcome after acute stroke. Further studies concentrate on determining the effective subsequent feeding actions are needed to improve patient outcomes.

Applicability of ENCHANTED trial results to current acute ischemic stroke patients eligible for intravenous thrombolysis in England and Wales: Comparison with the Sentinel Stroke National Audit Programme registry

BACKGROUND

Randomized controlled trials provide high-level evidence, but the necessity to include selected patients may limit the generalisability of their results.

METHODS

Comparisons were made of baseline and outcome data between patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) recruited into the alteplase-dose arm of the international, multi-center, Enhanced Control of Hypertension and Thrombolysis Stroke study (ENCHANTED) in the United Kingdom (UK), and alteplase-treated AIS patients registered in the UK Sentinel Stroke National Audit Programme (SSNAP) registry, over the study period June 2012 to October 2015.

RESULTS

There were 770 AIS patients (41.2% female; mean age 72 years) included in ENCHANTED at sites in England and Wales, which was 19.5% of alteplase-treated AIS patients registered in the SSNAP registry. Trial participants were significantly older, had lower baseline neurological severity, less likely Asian, and had more premorbid symptoms, hypertension and atrial fibrillation. Although ENCHANTED participants had higher rates of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage than those in SSNAP, there were no differences in onset-to-treatment time, levels of disability (assessed by the modified Rankin scale) at hospital discharge, and mortality over 90 days between groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the high level of participation, equipoise over the dose of alteplase among UK clinician investigators favored the inclusion of older, frailer, milder AIS patients in the ENCHANTED trial.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinical Trial Registration-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT01422616.

Intensive blood pressure reduction with intravenous thrombolysis therapy for acute ischaemic stroke (ENCHANTED): an international, randomised, open-label, blinded-endpoint, phase 3 trial

BACKGROUND

Systolic blood pressure of more than 185 mm Hg is a contraindication to thrombolytic treatment with intravenous alteplase in patients with acute ischaemic stroke, but the target systolic blood pressure for optimal outcome is uncertain. We assessed intensive blood pressure lowering compared with guideline-recommended blood pressure lowering in patients treated with alteplase for acute ischaemic stroke.

METHODS

We did an international, partial-factorial, open-label, blinded-endpoint trial of thrombolysis-eligible patients (age ≥18 years) with acute ischaemic stroke and systolic blood pressure 150 mm Hg or more, who were screened at 110 sites in 15 countries. Eligible patients were randomly assigned (1:1, by means of a central, web-based program) within 6 h of stroke onset to receive intensive (target systolic blood pressure 130-140 mm Hg within 1 h) or guideline (target systolic blood pressure <180 mm Hg) blood pressure lowering treatment over 72 h. The primary outcome was functional status at 90 days measured by shift in modified Rankin scale scores, analysed with unadjusted ordinal logistic regression. The key safety outcome was any intracranial haemorrhage. Primary and safety outcome assessments were done in a blinded manner. Analyses were done on intention-to-treat basis. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01422616.

FINDINGS

Between March 3, 2012, and April 30, 2018, 2227 patients were randomly allocated to treatment groups. After exclusion of 31 patients because of missing consent or mistaken or duplicate randomisation, 2196 alteplase-eligible patients with acute ischaemic stroke were included: 1081 in the intensive group and 1115 in the guideline group, with 1466 (67·4%) administered a standard dose among the 2175 actually given intravenous alteplase. Median time from stroke onset to randomisation was 3·3 h (IQR 2·6-4·1). Mean systolic blood pressure over 24 h was 144·3 mm Hg (SD 10·2) in the intensive group and 149·8 mm Hg (12·0) in the guideline group (p<0·0001). Primary outcome data were available for 1072 patients in the intensive group and 1108 in the guideline group. Functional status (mRS score distribution) at 90 days did not differ between groups (unadjusted odds ratio [OR] 1·01, 95% CI 0·87-1·17, p=0·8702). Fewer patients in the intensive group (160 [14·8%] of 1081) than in the guideline group (209 [18·7%] of 1115) had any intracranial haemorrhage (OR 0·75, 0·60-0·94, p=0·0137). The number of patients with any serious adverse event did not differ significantly between the intensive group (210 [19·4%] of 1081) and the guideline group (245 [22·0%] of 1115; OR 0·86, 0·70-1·05, p=0·1412). There was no evidence of an interaction of intensive blood pressure lowering with dose (low vs standard) of alteplase with regard to the primary outcome.

INTERPRETATION

Although intensive blood pressure lowering is safe, the observed reduction in intracranial haemorrhage did not lead to improved clinical outcome compared with guideline treatment. These results might not support a major shift towards this treatment being applied in those receiving alteplase for mild-to-moderate acute ischaemic stroke. Further research is required to define the underlying mechanisms of benefit and harm resulting from early intensive blood pressure lowering in this patient group.

FUNDING

National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia; UK Stroke Association; Ministry of Health and the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development of Brazil; Ministry for Health, Welfare, and Family Affairs of South Korea; Takeda.

Abstract TP362: Comparison of the Simplified Modified Rankin Scale Questionnaire With Conventional Neurological Scales in the Dose Arm of the Enchanted Study

Background: The simplified modified Rankin scale questionnaire (smRSq) was developed to facilitate scoring and precision in assessment of disability outcome on the mRS. We aim to determine the strength of associations between smRSq and mRS among participants of alteplase-dose arm of the ENCHANTED, and also in relation to other stroke outcomes (EQ-5D, NIHSS).

Methods: In the ENCHANTED trial, assessments of mRS were made at Days 3, 28 and 90, and smRSq at Days 28 and 90; EQ-5D at Days 28 and 90; NIHSS at 24 and 72 hours. Kappa statistic assessed relationships between smRSq and mRS; and Spearman correlation coefficients of relationship between smRSq and NIHSS and EQ-5D.

Results: Of 3010 included patients, good agreement existed between smRSq and mRS (Kw=0.79, 95% CI 0.78-0.81). Moderate correlations between NIHSS and smRSq (r = 0.44, P<0.0001) and of NIHSS and mRS (r = 0.455, P<).0001). Strong relationships were between EQ-5D utility score and smRSq (r = -0.836, P<0.0001) and mRS (r = -0.874, P<0.0001).

Conclusions: In a large dataset of a broad range of thrombolysis-eligible patients with acute ischemic stroke, there was a good agreement between smRSq and mRS, and consistence in correlating with other measure of neurological impairment and health-related quality of life. The data confirm the utility of smRSq as a reliable, valid, and simple structured assessment of stroke outcome.

Global, Regional, and Country-Specific Lifetime Risks of Stroke, 1990 and 2016

BACKGROUND

The lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older. Estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 were compared. Countries were categorized into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study, and the risks were compared across quintiles. Comparisons were made with the use of point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate.

RESULTS

The estimated global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); the risk among men was 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and the risk among women was 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5). The risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3%, and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. In high-SDI, high-middle-SDI, and low-SDI countries, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke was 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories. The highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke according to GBD region were in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). The mean global lifetime risk of stroke increased from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke was considered in this calculation.

CONCLUSIONS

In 2016, the global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was approximately 25% among both men and women. There was geographic variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.

METHODS

The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.

FINDINGS

Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development.

INTERPRETATION

This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Prevention of stroke: a global perspective

Along with the rising global burden of disability attributed to stroke, costs of stroke care are rising, providing the impetus to direct our research focus towards effective measures of stroke prevention. In this Series paper, we discuss strategies for reducing the risk of the emergence of disease (primordial prevention), preventing the onset of disease (primary prevention), and preventing the recurrence of disease (secondary prevention). Our focus includes global strategies and campaigns, and measurements of the effectiveness of worldwide preventive interventions, with an emphasis on low-income and middle-income countries. Our findings reveal that effective tobacco control, adequate nutrition, and development of healthy cities are important strategies for primordial prevention, whereas polypill strategies, use of mobile technology (mHealth), along with salt reduction and other dietary interventions, are effective in the primary prevention of stroke. An effective collaboration between various health-care sectors, government policies, and campaigns can successfully implement secondary prevention strategies, through surveillance and registries, such as the WHO's non-communicable diseases programmes, across high-income and low-income countries.

Practice Patterns for Neurosurgical Utilization and Outcome in Acute Intracerebral Hemorrhage: Intensive Blood Pressure Reduction in Acute Cerebral Hemorrhage Trials 1 and 2 Studies

BACKGROUND

The prognosis in acute spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is related to hematoma volume, where >30 mL is commonly used to define large ICH as a threshold for neurosurgical decompression but without clear supporting evidence.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the factors associated with large ICH and neurosurgical intervention among participants of the Intensive Blood Pressure Reduction in Acute Cerebral Hemorrhage Trials (INTERACT).

METHODS

We performed pooled analysis of the pilot INTERACT1 (n = 404) and main INTERACT2 (n = 2839) studies of ICH patients (<6 h of onset) with elevated systolic blood pressure (SBP, 150-220 mm Hg) who were randomized to intensive (target SBP < 140 mm Hg) or contemporaneous guideline-recommended (target SBP < 180 mm Hg) management. Neurosurgical intervention data were collected at 7 d postrandomization. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine associations.

RESULTS

There were 372 (13%) patients with large ICH volume (>30 mL), which was associated with nonresiding in China, nondiabetic status, severe neurological deficit (National Institutes of Health stroke scale [NIHSS] score ≥ 15), lobar location, intraventricular hemorrhage extension, raised leucocyte count, and hyponatremia. Significant predictors of those patients who underwent surgery (226 of 3233 patients overall; 83 of 372 patients with large ICH) were younger age, severe neurological deficit (lower Glasgow coma scale score, and NIHSS score ≥ 15), baseline ICH volume > 30 mL, and intraventricular hemorrhage.

CONCLUSIONS

Early identification of severe ICH, based on age and clinical and imaging parameters, may facilitate neurosurgery and intensive monitoring of patients.

Lipid-Lowering Pretreatment and Outcome Following Intravenous Thrombolysis for Acute Ischaemic Stroke: A Post Hoc Analysis of the Enhanced Control of Hypertension and Thrombolysis Stroke Study Trial

BACKGROUND

Debate exists as to whether statin pretreatment confers an increased risk of 90-day mortality and symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage (sICH) in acute ischaemic stroke (AIS) patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis. We assessed the effects of undifferentiated lipid-lowering pretreatment on outcomes and interaction with low-dose versus standard-dose alteplase in a post hoc subgroup -analysis of the Enhanced Control of Hypertension and Thrombolysis Stroke Study.

METHODS

In all, 3,284 thrombolysis-eligible AIS patients (mean age 66.6 years; 38% women), with information on lipid-lowering pretreatment, were randomly assigned to low-dose (0.6 mg/kg) or standard-dose (0.9 mg/kg) intravenous alteplase within 4.5 h of symptom onset. Of the total number of patients, 615 (19%) received statin or other lipid-lowering pretreatment. The primary clinical outcome was combined endpoint of death or disability (modified Rankin Scale scores 2-6) at 90 days.

RESULTS

Compared with patients with no lipid-lowering pretreatment, those with lipid-lowering pretreatment were significantly older, more likely to be non-Asian and more likely to have a medical history including vascular co-morbidity. After propensity analysis assessment and adjustment for important baseline variables at the time of randomisation, as well as imbalances in management during the first 7 days of hospital admission, there were no significant differences in mortality (OR 0.85; 95% CI 0.58-1.25, p = 0.42), or in overall -90-day death and disability (OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.67-1.09, p = 0.19), despite a significant decrease in sICH among those with -lipid-lowering pretreatment according to the European Co-operative Acute Stroke Study 2 definition (OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.28-0.83, p = 0.009). No differences in key efficacy or safety outcomes were seen in patients with and without lipid-lowering pretreatment between low- and standard-dose alteplase arms.

CONCLUSIONS

Lipid-lowering pretreatment is not associated with adverse outcome in AIS patients treated with intravenous alteplase, whether assessed by 90-day death and disability or death alone.

Characteristics, management and response to alteplase in China versus non-China participants of the ENCHANTED trial

Background

The characteristics of patients with acute ischaemic stroke (AIS) and their management vary across regions, which may influence outcomes. We examined for differential patterns of outcome between China and non-China participants of the ENhanced Control of Hypertension And Thrombolysis strokE stuDy (ENCHANTED), which tested different alteplase doses in AIS.

Methods

ENCHANTED was an international, multicentre, open, blinded-endpoint trial of the effects of low-dose (0.6 mg/kg) versus standard-dose (0.9 mg/kg) intravenous alteplase on 90-day disability outcomes and symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage (sICH) in 3310 patients with AIS.

Results

Participants (n=1419, 48%) in China were younger, and more often male, hypertensive and with prior stroke and coronary artery disease, but less likely to have atrial fibrillation and use antihypertensive, antithrombotic and lipid-lowering agents, compared with non-China patients with AIS. Although China participants had more AIS due to large artery occlusion, were treated later and had differing ancillary management, there was no significant difference in 90-day modified Rankin scale scores 2–6 (55.6% vs 47.8%; OR, adjusted for baseline and management factors 0.87 (95% CI 0.71 to 1.07; p=0.20)) and risk of sICH (Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke-Monitoring Study criteria: 1.4% vs 1.8%; p=0.12) compared with non-China participants. There was no heterogeneity in the treatment effects of low-dose versus standard-dose alteplase between China and non-China participants.

Conclusion

Patients with AIS recruited to the ENCHANTED trial in China had similar outcomes in response to thrombolysis treatment despite significantly differing demographic, clinical and management factors to patients with AIS in other regions.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016.

METHODS

We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40·8-75·9 million [7·2%, 6·0-8·3]), 45·1 million (29·0-62·8 million [5·6%, 4·0-7·2]), 36·3 million (25·3-50·9 million [4·5%, 3·8-5·3]), 34·7 million (23·0-49·6 million [4·3%, 3·5-5·2]), and 34·1 million (23·5-46·0 million [4·2%, 3·2-5·3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2·7% (95% UI 2·3-3·1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10·4% (95% UI 9·0-11·8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228).

INTERPRETATION

The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-to-date information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016.

METHODS

We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone.

FINDINGS

Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016.

INTERPRETATION

Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.