Adapting western North American forests to climate change and wildfires: 10 common questions

We review science-based adaptation strategies for western North American (wNA) forests that include restoring active fire regimes and fostering resilient structure and composition of forested landscapes. As part of the review, we address common questions associated with climate adaptation and realignment treatments that run counter to a broad consensus in the literature. These include the following: (1) Are the effects of fire exclusion overstated? If so, are treatments unwarranted and even counterproductive? (2) Is forest thinning alone sufficient to mitigate wildfire hazard? (3) Can forest thinning and prescribed burning solve the problem? (4) Should active forest management, including forest thinning, be concentrated in the wildland urban interface (WUI)? (5) Can wildfires on their own do the work of fuel treatments? (6) Is the primary objective of fuel reduction treatments to assist in future firefighting response and containment? (7) Do fuel treatments work under extreme fire weather? (8) Is the scale of the problem too great? Can we ever catch up? (9) Will planting more trees mitigate climate change in wNA forests? And (10) is post-fire management needed or even ecologically justified? Based on our review of the scientific evidence, a range of proactive management actions are justified and necessary to keep pace with changing climatic and wildfire regimes and declining forest heterogeneity after severe wildfires. Science-based adaptation options include the use of managed wildfire, prescribed burning, and coupled mechanical thinning and prescribed burning as is consistent with land management allocations and forest conditions. Although some current models of fire management in wNA are averse to short-term risks and uncertainties, the long-term environmental, social, and cultural consequences of wildfire management primarily grounded in fire suppression are well documented, highlighting an urgency to invest in intentional forest management and restoration of active fire regimes.

Alpine treeline ecotones are potential refugia for a montane pine species threatened by bark beetle outbreaks

Warming-induced mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae; MPB) outbreaks have caused extensive mortality of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis; WBP) throughout the species' range. In the highest mountains where WBP occur, they cross alpine treeline ecotones (ATEs) where growth forms transition from trees to shrub-like krummholz, some of which survived recent MPB outbreaks. This observation motivated the hypothesis that ATEs are refugia for WBP because krummholz growth forms escape MPB attack and have the potential to produce viable seed. To test this hypothesis, we surveyed WBP mortality along transects from the ATE edge (locally highest krummholz WBP) downslope into the forest and, to distinguish if survival mechanisms are unique to ATEs, across other forest ecotones (OFEs) from the edge of WBP occurrence into the forest. We replicated this design at 10 randomly selected sites in the U.S. Northern Rocky Mountains. We also surveyed reproduction in a subset of ATE sites. Mortality was nearly absent in upper ATEs (mean ± SE percent dead across all sites of 0.03% ± 0.03% 0-100 m from the edge and 14.1% ± 1.7% 100-500 m from the edge) but was above 20% along OFEs (21.4 ± 5.2% 0-100 m and 32.4 ± 2.7% 100-500 m from the edge). We observed lower reproduction in upper ATEs (16 ± 9.9 cones/ha and 12.9 ± 5.3 viable seeds/cone 0-100 m from the edge) compared to forests below (317.1 ± 64.4 cones/ha and 32.5 ± 2.5 viable seeds/cone 100-500 m from the edge). Uniquely high WBP survival supports the hypothesis that ATEs serve as refugia because krummholz growth forms escape MPB attack. However, low reproduction suggests ATE refugia function over longer time periods. Beyond our WBP system, we propose that plant populations in marginal environments are candidate refugia if distinct phenotypes result in reduced disturbance impacts.

Fire and biodiversity in the Anthropocene

Fire has been a source of global biodiversity for millions of years. However, interactions with anthropogenic drivers such as climate change, land use, and invasive species are changing the nature of fire activity and its impacts. We review how such changes are threatening species with extinction and transforming terrestrial ecosystems. Conservation of Earth's biological diversity will be achieved only by recognizing and responding to the critical role of fire. In the Anthropocene, this requires that conservation planning explicitly includes the combined effects of human activities and fire regimes. Improved forecasts for biodiversity must also integrate the connections among people, fire, and ecosystems. Such integration provides an opportunity for new actions that could revolutionize how society sustains biodiversity in a time of changing fire activity.

Integrating Subjective and Objective Dimensions of Resilience in Fire-Prone Landscapes

Resilience has become a common goal for science-based natural resource management, particularly in the context of changing climate and disturbance regimes. Integrating varying perspectives and definitions of resilience is a complex and often unrecognized challenge to applying resilience concepts to social-ecological systems (SESs) management. Using wildfire as an example, we develop a framework to expose and separate two important dimensions of resilience: the inherent properties that maintain structure, function, or states of an SES and the human perceptions of desirable or valued components of an SES. In doing so, the framework distinguishes between value-free and human-derived, value-explicit dimensions of resilience. Four archetypal scenarios highlight that ecological resilience and human values do not always align and that recognizing and anticipating potential misalignment is critical for developing effective management goals. Our framework clarifies existing resilience theory, connects literature across disciplines, and facilitates use of the resilience concept in research and land-management applications.

Putting Climate Adaptation on the Map: Developing Spatial Management Strategies for Whitebark Pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Natural resource managers face the need to develop strategies to adapt to projected future climates. Few existing climate adaptation frameworks prescribe where to place management actions to be most effective under anticipated future climate conditions. We developed an approach to spatially allocate climate adaptation actions and applied the method to whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). WBP is expected to be vulnerable to climate-mediated shifts in suitable habitat, pests, pathogens, and fire. We spatially prioritized management actions aimed at mitigating climate impacts to WBP under two management strategies: (1) current management and (2) climate-informed management. The current strategy reflected management actions permissible under existing policy and access constraints. Our goal was to understand how consideration of climate might alter the placement of management actions, so the climate-informed strategies did not include these constraints. The spatial distribution of actions differed among the current and climate-informed management strategies, with 33-60% more wilderness area prioritized for action under climate-informed management. High priority areas for implementing management actions include the 1-8% of the GYE where current and climate-informed management agreed, since this is where actions are most likely to be successful in the long-term and where current management permits implementation. Areas where climate-informed strategies agreed with one another but not with current management (6-22% of the GYE) are potential locations for experimental testing of management actions. Our method for spatial climate adaptation planning is applicable to any species for which information regarding climate vulnerability and climate-mediated risk factors is available.

Integrating satellite imagery with simulation modeling to improve burn severity mapping

Both satellite imagery and spatial fire effects models are valuable tools for generating burn severity maps that are useful to fire scientists and resource managers. The purpose of this study was to test a new mapping approach that integrates imagery and modeling to create more accurate burn severity maps. We developed and assessed a statistical model that combines the Relative differenced Normalized Burn Ratio, a satellite image-based change detection procedure commonly used to map burn severity, with output from the Fire Hazard and Risk Model, a simulation model that estimates fire effects at a landscape scale. Using 285 Composite Burn Index (CBI) plots in Washington and Montana as ground reference, we found that an integrated model explained more variability in CBI (R (2) = 0.47) and had lower mean squared error (MSE = 0.28) than image (R (2) = 0.42 and MSE = 0.30) or simulation-based models (R (2) = 0.07 and MSE = 0.49) alone. Overall map accuracy was also highest for maps created with the Integrated Model (63 %). We suspect that Simulation Model performance would greatly improve with higher quality and more accurate spatial input data. Results of this study indicate the potential benefit of combining satellite image-based methods with a fire effects simulation model to create improved burn severity maps.

Water use by whitebark pine and subalpine fir: potential consequences of fire exclusion in the northern Rocky Mountains

In subalpine forests of the northern Rocky Mountains, fire exclusion has contributed to large-scale shifts from early-successional whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) to late-successional subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt.), a species assumed to be more shade tolerant than whitebark pine and with leaf to sapwood area ratios (A(L):A(S)) over twice as high. Potential consequences of high A(L):A(S) for subalpine fir include reduced light availability and, if hydraulic sufficiency is maintained, increased whole-tree water use. We measured instantaneous gas exchange, carbon isotope ratios and sap flow of whitebark pine and subalpine fir trees of different sizes in the Sapphire Mountains of western Montana to determine: (1) whether species-specific differences in gas exchange are related to their assumed relative shade tolerance and (2) how differences in A(L):A(S) affect leaf- and whole-tree water use. Whitebark pine exhibited higher photosynthetic rates (A = 10.9 micromol x m(-2) x s(-1) +/- 1.1 SE), transpiration rates (E = 3.8 mmol x m(-2) x s(-1) +/- 0.7 SE), stomatal conductance (g(s) = 166.4 mmol x m(-2) x s(-1) +/- 5.3 SE) and carbon isotope ratios (delta13C = -25.5 per thousand +/- 0.2 SE) than subalpine fir (A = 5.7 micromol x m(-2) x s(-1) +/- 0.9 SE; E = 1.4 mmol x m(-2) x s(-1) +/- 0.3 SE; g(s) = 63.4 mmol x m(-2) x s(-1) +/- 1.2 SE, delta13C = -26.2 per thousand +/- 0.2 SE; P < 0.01 in all cases). Because subalpine fir had lower leaf-area-based sap flow than whitebark pine (QL = 0.33 kgx m(-2) x day(-1) +/- 0.03 SE and 0.76 kg x m(-2) x day(-1) +/- 0.06 SE, respectively; P < 0.001), the higher A(L):A(S) in subalpine fir did not result in direct proportional increases in whole-tree water use, although large subalpine firs used more water than large whitebark pines. The linear relationships between tree size and daily water use (r2 = 0.94 and 0.97 for whitebark pine and subalpine fir, respectively) developed at the Sapphire Mountains site were applied to trees of known size classes measured in 12 natural subalpine stands in the Bob Marshall Wilderness Complex (western Montana) ranging from 67 to 458 years old. Results indicated that the potential for subalpine forests to lose water by transpiration increases as succession proceeds and subalpine fir recruits into whitebark pine stands.

Simulating effects of fire on northern Rocky Mountain landscapes with the ecological process model FIRE-BGC

A mechanistic, biogeochemical succession model, FIRE-BGC, was used to investigate the role of fire on long-term landscape dynamics in northern Rocky Mountain coniferous forests of Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. FIRE-BGC is an individual-tree model-created by merging the gap-phase process-based model FIRESUM with the mechanistic ecosystem biogeochemical model FOREST-BGC-that has mixed spatial and temporal resolution in its simulation architecture. Ecological processes that act at a landscape level, such as fire and seed dispersal, are simulated annually from stand and topographic information. Stand-level processes, such as tree establishment, growth and mortality, organic matter accumulation and decomposition, and undergrowth plant dynamics are simulated both daily and annually. Tree growth is mechanistically modeled based on the ecosystem process approach of FOREST-BGC where carbon is fixed daily by forest canopy photosynthesis at the stand level. Carbon allocated to the tree stem at the end of the year generates the corresponding diameter and height growth. The model also explicitly simulates fire behavior and effects on landscape characteristics. We simulated the effects of fire on ecosystem characteristics of net primary productivity, evapotranspiration, standing crop biomass, nitrogen cycling and leaf area index over 200 years for the 50,000-ha McDonald Drainage in Glacier National Park. Results show increases in net primary productivity and available nitrogen when fires are included in the simulation. Standing crop biomass and evapotranspiration decrease under a fire regime. Shade-intolerant species dominate the landscape when fires are excluded. Model tree increment predictions compared well with field data.

Rapid Decline of Whitebark Pine in Western Montana: Evidence from 20-Year Remeasurements

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), an important producer of food for wildlife, is decreasing in abundance in western Montana due to attacks by the white pine blister rust fungus (Cronartium ribicola), epidemics of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) and successional replacement mainly by subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa). Plots established in 1971 were remeasured in 1991 and 1992 to determine the rate and causes of whitebark pine mortality. Mortality rates averaged 42% over the last 20 yr. indicating a rapid decline in whitebark pine populations of western Montana. This decline is most pronounced in northwestern Montana with the southward extension of heaviest mortality centered along the continental divide and Bitterroot Mountain range. Management treatments such as prescribed fire can serve to maintain whitebark pine in the landscape. West. J. Appl. For. 8(2):44-47.