Real-world evidence from the first online healthcare analytics platform-Livingstone. Validation of its descriptive epidemiology module

Incidence and prevalence are key epidemiological determinants characterizing the quantum of a disease. We compared incidence and prevalence estimates derived automatically from the first ever online, essentially real-time, healthcare analytics platform-Livingstone-against findings from comparable peer-reviewed studies in order to validate the descriptive epidemiology module. The source of routine NHS data for Livingstone was the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). After applying a general search strategy looking for any disease or condition, 76 relevant studies were first retrieved, of which 10 met pre-specified inclusion and exclusion criteria. Findings reported in these studies were compared with estimates produced automatically by Livingstone. The published reports described elements of the epidemiology of 14 diseases or conditions. Lin's concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) was used to evaluate the concordance between findings from Livingstone and those detailed in the published studies. The concordance of incidence values in the final year reported by each study versus Livingstone was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.89-0.98), whilst for all annual incidence values the concordance was 0.93 (0.91-0.94). For prevalence, concordance for the final annual prevalence reported in each study versus Livingstone was 1.00 (0.99-1.00) and for all reported annual prevalence values, the concordance was 0.93 (0.90-0.95). The concordance between Livingstone and the latest published findings was near perfect for prevalence and substantial for incidence. For the first time, it is now possible to automatically generate reliable descriptive epidemiology from routine health records, and in near-real time. Livingstone provides the first mechanism to rapidly generate standardised, descriptive epidemiology for all clinical events from real world data.

The absolute risk of incident type 2 diabetes following exposure to systemic corticosteroids in selected steroid-related and phenotypic groups

AIMS

Exposure to corticosteroids is known to increase the risk of developing type 2 diabetes. We estimated the risk of incident type 2 diabetes in selected patient groups exposed to systemic corticosteroids.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In a retrospective, observational cohort study, using real-world data from UK primary care, patients were selected who had at least one episode of exposure to oral or intravenous corticosteroids for any indication. Corticosteroid-exposed patients were matched with non-exposed patients. Relative dosage was estimated as a weight-based, prednisolone-equivalent dose. Crude rates of progression to type 2 diabetes were determined for patient groups defined by relevant steroid-related and phenotypic characteristics present at corticosteroid exposure.

RESULTS

Overall, rates of incidence of type 2 diabetes were 12.5 and 6.7 events per thousand person-years' (pkpy) exposure, respectively, in those who received at least one dose of corticosteroids versus those never exposed. This represented a rate ratio of 1.85 (95% CI 1.74-1.97). The incidence of type 2 diabetes was found to be associated with several of the selected characteristics, both individually and multi-dimensionally. The highest rate of incident type 2 diabetes was observed in very severely obese men aged 46-55 years having had the longest corticosteroid exposure and highest corticosteroid dose (190 incident events pkpy exposure).

CONCLUSIONS

Corticosteroid exposure increased the risk of incident type 2 diabetes, and there was evidence of both a dose-response and a duration response. The impact of corticosteroid exposure upon the rate of incident type 2 diabetes appeared, however, to involve a complex, multi-dimensional interaction between the selected characteristics, some of which might be impacted by reverse causality.

The financial burden of treating patients presenting with acute and chronic cough

OBJECTIVE

Coughing is a common symptom and responsible for a large number of healthcare visits. This study aimed to characterize healthcare resource use and associated financial costs in people with acute or chronic cough.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study using routine data from the UK National Health Service. Adults (≥18 years) were selected if they had a cough record between 1 March 2014 and 28 February 2015 and were classified by duration.

RESULTS

A cohort of 150,231 patients was identified, of whom 12,513 (8.3%) had chronic cough, 38,599 (25.7%) had an acute cough with more than one cough event, and 99,119 (66.0%) had acute cough with one event in the study year. Resource use and combined costs of all healthcare contacts differed between cough groups. The healthcare cost per person-year in patients with a single record of acute cough was £739; for those with chronic cough, the cost was £3,663.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with cough represented a substantial financial burden to the NHS. It was difficult to discern the specific portion of treatment associated with cough itself. However, people with chronic cough were associated with substantially increased healthcare use and costs than were those with acute cough.

Insulin-like growth factor-1, growth hormone and disease outcomes in acromegaly: A population study

CONTEXT

A lack of consensus remains about the relative importance of insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) and growth hormone (GH) in predicting adverse outcomes in patients with acromegaly.

OBJECTIVE

To describe the differing association between IGF-1 and GH and major disease outcomes in acromegaly.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

PATIENTS

United Kingdom National Health Service patients with acromegaly who had an IGF-1 and/or a GH measurement recorded following diagnosis, prior to December 2019.

MEASUREMENTS

A composite endpoint including all-cause mortality (ACM), type 2 diabetes (DM), major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) or cancer was the primary outcome. These outcomes were also analysed individually. Follow-up period was capped at 5 years.

RESULTS

A maximum of 417 cases and 332 cases were eligible for the IGF-1 and GH analyses, respectively, comprising 1041.5 and 938.9 years of follow-up. There was a direct association between increased IGF-1 concentration and adjusted event risk for the composite endpoint (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.2; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.02-1.5); in GH, the HR was 1.1 (1.0-1.2). For the individual endpoints in relation to IGF-1 level, the HRs were ACM (1.2; 0.93-1.5), MACE (1.2; 0.64-2.1), DM (1.53; 1.09-2.2) and cancer (1.3; 0.95-1.7). For GH, the HRs were ACM (1.1; 0.97-1.2), MACE (0.99; 0.73-1.3), DM (1.1; 0.99-1.2) and cancer (0.90; 0.66-1.2).

CONCLUSIONS

In this contemporary data set with extended follow-up, IGF-1 and GH concentrations showed an association with major adverse outcomes from acromegaly.

POS1432 SHORT-TERM RISK OF OSTEOPOROSIS IN ADULTS TREATED WITH CORTICOSTEROIDS: AN OBSERVATIONAL STUDY

Background:

Exposure to corticosteroids is recognised to increase the risk of osteoporosis.

Objectives:

Our aim was to evaluate patients’ short-term absolute risk of osteoporosis over the course of their first continuous exposure to corticosteroids.

Methods:

This was an observational study using UK data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Adult patients were selected if exposed to systemic corticosteroids for any condition and had no prior osteoporosis. Non-exposed adults matched on age, sex, and disease burden were selected from the general population. Patients were followed from their first exposure to corticosteroid to the earlier of 90 days following the end of continuous prescribing or for a maximum of three years. Cohorts were categorised by age (18-42 years, 43-67 and 68-92 years), BMI (underweight, normal overweight, obese and obese+) and gender. Absolute risk rates were calculated for each of these categories.

Results:

In total, 573,056 exposed patients were matched 1:1 to non-exposed controls. Mean age was 52 years; 57% were female. The mean and median days’ supply were 50.9 and 13 days, respectively. Underweight females aged 68-92 years exposed to corticosteroids had the highest absolute risk of osteoporosis (70.9 per 1000 patient years (PKPY)); in matched non-exposed controls this was 26.6 PKPY. Generally, following their first continuous exposure to corticosteroids, patients taking steroids had greater risk of osteoporosis compared with those in the same age, sex and BMI category never exposed to corticosteroids.

Conclusion:

Whilst it is understood that exposure to corticosteroids increases the risk of osteoporosis, there are large differences in risk in accordance with age, sex and BMI. Alternatives to corticosteroids are urgently needed.

MaleFemaleSteroid-exposedNever exposedSteroid-exposedNever exposedAge groupBMI groupPatientsAbsolute rate (per 1,000 patient years)PatientsAbsolute rate (per 1,000 patient years)p-valuePatientsAbsolute rate (per 1,000 patient years)PatientsAbsolute rate (per 1,000 patient years)p-value18-421: Underweight1,2422.01,1950.00.56613,0794.53,4860.90.13612: Normal18,7982.219,6380.0<0.000142,2340.947,3400.10.00493: Overweight16,5362.615,1140.00.000124,8930.524,0090.10.23824: Obese +10,3110.68,4530.00.287426,6000.620,3200.30.461443-671: Underweight1,25427.46830.00.00402,42030.91,99018.50.11412: Normal27,0378.626,5692.0<0.000145,46715.950,4236.1<0.00013: Overweight42,4284.343,8720.7<0.000142,62010.843,2534.1<0.00014: Obese +31,4782.530,8520.80.000745,3396.039,8762.4<0.000168-921: Underweight93630.343210.30.15051,53270.91,23926.60.00032: Normal15,89111.315,0214.5<0.000118,30842.318,71718.6<0.00013: Overweight21,3717.323,1371.8<0.000119,14926.219,76012.9<0.00014: Obese +11,2165.611,3961.90.002114,45320.013,6148.7<0.0001

Disclosure of Interests:

Ellen Berni Consultant of: Employed by Pharmatelligence, which carries out consultancy work for AstraZeneca and other pharmaceutical companies., Philip Ambery Shareholder of: AstraZeneca, Employee of: AstraZeneca, Samuel Adamsson Eryd Shareholder of: AstraZeneca, Employee of: AstraZeneca, Sara Jenkins-Jones Consultant of: Employed by Pharmatelligence, which carries out consultancy work for AstraZeneca and other pharmaceutical companies., Mary Brown Shareholder of: AstraZeneca, Employee of: AstraZeneca, Carol Astbury Shareholder of: AstraZeneca, Employee of: AstraZeneca, Phillip Hunt Shareholder of: AstraZeneca, Employee of: AstraZeneca, Craig Currie Consultant of: Director of Pharmatelligence, which carries out consultancy work for AstraZeneca and other pharmaceutical companies

Characterization and Associated Costs of Constipation Relating to Exposure to Strong Opioids in England: An Observational Study

PURPOSE

Opioid use is associated with gastrointestinal adverse events, including nausea and constipation. We used a real-world dataset to characterize the health care burden associated with opioid-induced constipation (OIC) with particular emphasis on strong opioids.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study was conducted using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, a large UK primary care dataset linked to hospital data. Patients prescribed opioids during 2016 were selected and episodes of opioid therapy constructed. Episodes with ≥84 days of exposure were classified as chronic, with date of first prescription as the index date. The main analysis focused on patients prescribed strong opioids who were laxative naive. Constipation was defined by ≥2 laxative prescriptions during the opioid episode. Patients for whom initial laxative therapy escalated by switch, augmentation, or dose were defined as OIC unstable, and the first 3 lines of OIC escalation were classified. Health care costs accrued in the first 12 months of the opioid episode were aggregated and compared.

FINDINGS

A total of 27,629 opioid episodes were identified; 5916 (21.4%) involved a strong opioid for patients who were previously laxative naive. Of these patients, 2886 (48.8%) were defined as the OIC population; 941 (33.26%) were classified as stable. Of the 1945 (67.4%) episodes classified as unstable, 849 (43.7%), 360 (18.5%), and 736 (37.8%) had 1, 2, and ≥3 changes of laxative prescription, respectively. Patients without OIC had lower costs per patient year (£3822 [US$5160/€4242]) compared with OIC (£4786 [US$6461/€5312]). Costs increased as patients had multiple changes in therapy: £4696 (US$6340/€5213), £4749 (US$6411/€5271), and £4981 (US$6724/€5529) for 1, 2, and ≥3 changes, respectively. The adjusted cost ratio relative to non-OIC was 1.14 (95% CI, 1.09-1.32) for those classified as stable and 1.19 (95% CI, 1.09-1.32) for those with ≥3 laxative changes. Similar patterns were observed for patients taking anyopioid, with costs increased for those classified as having OIC (£3727 [US$5031/€4137] vs £2379 [US$3212 /€2641),and for those patients classified as unstable versus stable (£3931 [US$5307/€4363] vs £3432 [US$4633/€3810). Costs increased with each additional line of therapy from £3701 (US$4996/€4108), £3916 (US$5287/€4347), and £4318 (US$5829/€4793).

IMPLICATIONS

OIC was a common adverse event of opioid treatment and was poorly controlled for a large number of patients. Poor control was associated with increased health care costs. The impact of OIC should be considered when prescribing opioids. These results should be interpreted with consideration of the caveats associated with the analysis of routine data.

Healthcare utilization and associated costs following initiation of perampanel in patients with epilepsy

PURPOSE

We compared health service utilization and costs for patients with epilepsy before and after initiation of perampanel and compared with matched controls.

METHOD

Patients were selected from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Patients initiating perampanel were matched to controls initiating an alternate add-on therapy for the same underlying epilepsy subtype. First prescription defined index date. Primary and secondary care contacts and associated costs were aggregated in the 12 months before and after index date. Secondary care contacts were available for a subset (~60%) of patients.

RESULTS

Three hundred and forty-three patients treated with perampanel were identified. One hundred and eighty-three (53.4%) were male, mean age was 39.1 (sd: 16.0). Mean epilepsy duration was 21.1 (standard deviation (sd): 13.3) years. Two hundred and eighty-seven (83.7%) were matched to controls. Inpatient admissions with a primary diagnosis of epilepsy (0.5 versus 0.2 per patient-year (ppy), p = 0.002) and neurology specific outpatient appointments (3.2 versus 2.9 ppy, p = 0.041) were significantly reduced following initiation with perampanel. Total costs attributable to epilepsy (£1889 to 1477 ppy) and overall secondary costs (£2593 to £2102) were also significantly reduced. There was no significant difference in primary care, outpatient, or general inpatient admissions. Compared with controls, there was a significant reduction in primary epilepsy admissions (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 0.423; 95% Confidence intervals (CI): 0.198-0.835) but a significant increase in outpatient appointments (1.306; 95% CI: 1.154-1.478) and accident and emergency contacts (1.603; 95% CI: 1.081-2.390) for patients treated with perampanel.

CONCLUSION

Treatment with perampanel is associated with reduced epilepsy-related inpatient admissions and accident and emergency contacts.

Cough presentation in primary care and the identification of chronic cough: a need for diagnostic clarity?

Objective: To investigate patterns of presentation of cough in primary care and develop an algorithm to identify probable and possible chronic cough (CC).Methods: This retrospective observational study used routine English primary care data and linked hospital data. Patients with ≥1 cough event in the study period (March 2014-February 2015) were selected. Index date was that of the earliest cough event in this period. Adults (aged ≥18 years) were classified as having probable CC if they had an explicit CC diagnosis; as having possible CC if they had ≥3 cough events recorded over 8-26 weeks; or, otherwise, as having acute cough. Underlying conditions associated with CC were identified.Results: 198,151 people were identified. 56.5% were female; median age was 47.0 years. The prevalence of cough in the study year was 17.6%. Of the 150,213 identified adults, 1600 (1.1%), 10,913 (7.3%) and 137,718 (91.7%) were classified as having probable CC, possible CC or acute cough, respectively. Compared with probable CC and acute cough, a higher percentage of possible CC cases had a record on or prior to index date indicative of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (30.6% versus 10.1% and 9.7%), gastro-esophageal reflux disease (32.6% versus 24.9% and 21.1%) or asthma (45.9% versus 27.6% and 27.9%). Prevalences of probable and possible CC were 0.18% and 1.2%, respectively.Conclusions: The prevalence of CC was lower than reported in previous studies. People with possible CC had higher rates of underlying conditions associated with CC. These observations may suggest poor recognition and/or under-recording of CC in primary care.

Outcomes Associated with Treatment of Chronic Pain with Tapentadol Compared with Morphine and Oxycodone: A UK Primary Care Observational Study

Introduction

This study compared adverse outcomes and resource use for patients with a diagnosis of pain treated with tapentadol prolonged-release (PR) versus those treated with morphine controlled-release (CR) and oxycodone CR.

Methods

Data were sourced from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), a database derived from UK primary care. Patients prescribed tapentadol PR between May 2011 and December 2016 were selected and matched to two groups of controls treated with either morphine CR or oxycodone CR on gender, age, pain duration, pain site, pain aetiology, Charlson index and prior analgesia. Times to first adverse event (constipation or nausea/vomiting) were compared within a Cox proportional hazards model. Rates of primary care contacts, accident and emergency contacts and, for a subset of patients linked to Hospital Episode Statistics (HES), inpatient admissions and outpatient contacts were compared using incidence rate ratios (IRRs) derived from Poisson regression.

Results

A total of 1907 patients prescribed tapentadol PR were identified and 1791 (93.9%) had a pain diagnosis. Of these 1246 (65.3%) were matched to morphine controls and 829 (43.4%) to oxycodone controls. Compared to controls, gastrointestinal adverse events with tapentadol PR treatment were reduced; aHR = 0.532 (0.402–0.703; p < 0.001) versus morphine CR and 0.517 (0.363–0.735; p < 0.001) versus oxycodone CR. Compared with morphine CR, primary care contacts [IRR = 0.831 (0.802–0.861)], accident and emergency attendance [0.739 (0.572–0.951)], outpatient contacts [0.917 (0.851–0.989)] and inpatients contacts [0.789 (0.664–0.938)] were reduced. For oxycodone, the respective figures were 0.735 (0.703–0.768), 0.971 (0.699–1.352), 0.877 (0.799–0.962) and 0.748 (0.601–0.932).

Conclusion

Tapentadol PR was associated with significantly fewer adverse gastrointestinal events than morphine CR and oxycodone CR in patients with a diagnosis of pain. There was also significantly reduced primary and secondary care resource use. As with all observational studies, potential bias due to residual confounding and confounding by indication should be considered.

Funding

Grünenthal Ltd.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s12325-019-00932-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Impact of treatment with pioglitazone on stroke outcomes: A real-world database analysis

AIMS

Randomized controlled trials have reported an association between pioglitazone and reduced incidence of stroke in type 2 diabetic (T2DM) and insulin-resistant populations. We investigated this association within a real-world database.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

T2DM patients who initiated pioglitazone between 2000 and 2012 were extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), a UK routine data source. Two non-exposed control cohorts were matched according to age, gender, HbA1c, diabetes duration, stroke history, co-morbidities and prior T2DM regimen. Control cohort-1 comprised patients initiating a new T2DM therapy as their respective case initiated pioglitazone. Control cohort-2 maintained the same T2DM regimen as their respective case prior to the case initiating pioglitazone. Primary outcome was incident stroke; other outcomes included mortality, length of hospital stay and stroke recurrence.

RESULTS

A total of 4234 patients initiating pioglitazone were matched to controls in cohort-1 and 3604 in cohort-2. For the primary outcome there were significantly reduced hazard ratios (HRs) for cases: controls. For cohort 1, the HR was 0.666 (95% CI, 0.466-0.952) during the therapy period and was 0.750 (0.612-0.919) over the entire observation period; for cohort 2, respective HRs were 0.516 (0.336-0.794) and 0.773 (0.611-0.978). There was no significant difference in 30-day mortality rate or rate of recurrent stroke. For stroke events that required hospitalization, there was a significant difference in length of stay for patients discharged to usual residence (median, 3.0 days vs 7.0 days; P = .008) for control cohort-2 while undergoing treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

In support of evidence from 2 large randomized trials, these observational data show that pioglitazone has a potent effect in reducing stroke events in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Poor compliance and increased mortality, depression and healthcare costs in patients with congenital adrenal hyperplasia

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the risks of depression and all-cause mortality, healthcare utilisation costs and treatment adherence in congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) in the United Kingdom.

DESIGN AND METHODS

A retrospective, matched-cohort study using UK primary-care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to hospital and death certification data. Patients diagnosed with CAH and having ≥1 corticosteroid prescription were matched 1:10 to reference subjects. Risk of death and lifetime prevalence of depression were compared using Cox regression models. Direct financial costs were estimated for healthcare contacts. Treatment adherence was measured by medical possession ratio (MPR).

RESULTS

605 patients with CAH were identified; 562 were matched. 270 CAH patients (2700 controls) were linkable to death-certificate data, with adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause mortality 5.17 (95% CI 2.81-9.50). Mean (s.d.) age at death in CAH patients was 54.8 (23.9) vs 72.8 (18.0) years in control patients. The prevalence ratio of depression in CAH vs control patients was 1.28 (95% CI 1.13-1.45). Mean (s.d.) annual healthcare costs were higher in CAH than controls: at age 0-6 years, £7038 (£14 846) vs £2879 (£13 972, P < 0.001); 7-17 years, £3766 (£7494) vs £1232 (£2451, P < 0.001); 18-40 years, £1539 (£872) vs £1344 (£1620, P = 0.007) and ≥41 years, £4204 (£4863) vs £1651 (£2303, P < 0.001). Treatment adherence was lowest in adults, with 141 (36%) of 396 eligible patients having an MPR <80%.

CONCLUSIONS

This first analysis of CAH in routine UK healthcare suggests that patients with CAH have increased mortality, depression and healthcare utilisation and low treatment adherence.

Population-based Clinical Practice Research Datalink study using algorithm modelling to identify the true burden of hidradenitis suppurativa

BACKGROUND

Epidemiology data regarding hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) are conflicting and prevalence estimates vary 80-fold, from 0·05% in a population-based study to 4%.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the hypothesis that previous population-based studies underestimated true HS prevalence by missing undiagnosed cases.

METHODS

We performed a population-based observational and case-control study using the U.K. Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked to hospital episode statistics data. Physician-diagnosed cases in the CPRD were identified from specific Read codes. Algorithms identified unrecognized 'proxy' cases, with at least five Read code records for boils in flexural skin sites. Validation of proxy cases was undertaken with general practitioner (GP) questionnaires to confirm criteria-diagnosed cases. A case-control study assessed disease associations.

RESULTS

On 30 June 2013, 23 353 physician-diagnosed HS cases were documented in 4 364 308 research-standard records. In total, 68 890 proxy cases were identified, reduced to 10 146 criteria-diagnosed cases after validation, extrapolated from 107 completed questionnaires (61% return rate). Overall point prevalence was 0·77% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0·76-0·78%]. An additional 18 417 cases had a history of one to four flexural skin boils. In physician-diagnosed cases, odds ratios (ORs) for current smoker and obesity (body mass index > 30 kg m^-2 ) were 3·61 (95% CI 3·44-3·79) and 3·29 (95% CI 3·14-3·45). HS was associated with type 2 diabetes, Crohn disease, hyperlipidaemia, acne and depression, and not associated with ulcerative colitis or polycystic ovary syndrome.

CONCLUSIONS

Contrary to results of previous population-based studies, HS is relatively common, with a U.K. prevalence of 0·77%, one-third being unrecognized, criteria-diagnosed cases using the most stringent disease definition. If individuals with probable cases are included, HS prevalence rises to 1·19%.

Glucose Control and Weight Change Associated with Treatment with Exenatide Compared with Basal Insulin: A Retrospective Study

INTRODUCTION

The aim of the study was to compare glycemic and weight change outcomes for type 2 diabetes patients treated with either exenatide once-weekly (EQW) or exenatide twice-daily (EBID) with those patients treated with basal insulin (BI).

METHODS

Retrospective data (2010-2014) were extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, a UK primary care database. Patients previously naïve to injectable therapy initiating EQW, EBID, or BI were extracted and matched by propensity score within two analyses (EQW vs BI and EBID vs BI). Absolute and relative change in HbA1c and weight from baseline and the proportion of patients achieving HbA1c ≤ 7.0% (53 mmol/mol) combined with weight reduction targets of (1) any weight loss or (2) ≥ 5.0% from baseline were compared at 6 and 12-24 months.

RESULTS

A total of 485 patients initiated EQW, 3573 EBID, and 13,503 BI. In the propensity matched EQW versus BI analysis, mean HbA1c decreased with changes of - 1.33% (- 14.5 mmol/mol) and - 1.24% (- 13.5 mmol/mol) at 6 months and - 1.19% (- 13.0 mmol/mol) and - 1.17% (- 12.8 mmol/mol) at 12-24 months, respectively. Respective weight change was - 3.7 kg versus + 1.2 kg (p < 0.001) and - 3.2 kg versus + 2.5 kg (p < 0.001). Significantly more EQW patients achieved the combined HbA1c ≤ 7.0% (53 mmol/mol) and weight loss target (22.4% versus 9.9% at 6 months and 18.2% versus 8.0% at 12-24 months, respectively) and HbA1c ≤ 7.0% (53 mmol/mol) and minimum 5% weight loss (11.8% versus 3.7% at 6 months, and 8.0% versus 0.0% at 12-24 months). For EBID versus BI, similar results were found.

CONCLUSION

In this real-world data analysis, exenatide QW and exenatide BID were associated with similar glycemic control and greater weight reduction compared with basal insulin.

The risk of cardiac failure following metal-on-metal hip arthroplasty

AIMS

The aim of this study was to determine whether patients with metal-on-metal (MoM) arthroplasties of the hip have an increased risk of cardiac failure compared with those with alternative types of arthroplasties (non-MoM).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A linkage study between the National Joint Registry, Hospital Episodes Statistics and records of the Office for National Statistics on deaths was undertaken. Patients who underwent elective total hip arthroplasty between January 2003 and December 2014 with no past history of cardiac failure were included and stratified as having either a MoM (n = 53 529) or a non-MoM (n = 482 247) arthroplasty. The primary outcome measure was the time to an admission to hospital for cardiac failure or death. Analysis was carried out using data from all patients and from those matched by propensity score.

RESULTS

The risk of cardiac failure was lower in the MoM cohort compared with the non-MoM cohort (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.901; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.853 to 0.953). The risk of cardiac failure was similar following matching (aHR 0.909; 95% CI 0.838 to 0.987) and the findings were consistent in subgroup analysis.

CONCLUSION

The risk of cardiac failure following total hip arthroplasty was not increased in those in whom MoM implants were used, compared with those in whom other types of prostheses were used, in the first seven years after surgery. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:20-7.

Healthcare resource utilization and related financial costs associated with glucose lowering with either exenatide or basal insulin: A retrospective cohort study

AIMS

Type 2 diabetes is a major health problem placing increasing demands on healthcare systems. Our objective was to estimate healthcare resource use and related financial costs following treatment with exenatide-based regimens prescribed as once-weekly (EQW) or twice-daily (EBID) formulations, compared with regimens based on basal insulin (BI).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective cohort study used data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked to Hospital Episode Statistics (HES). Patients with type 2 diabetes who received exenatide or BI between 2009 and 2014 as their first recorded exposure to injectable therapy were selected. Costs were attributed to primary care contacts, diabetes-related prescriptions and inpatient admissions using standard UK healthcare costing methods (2014 prices). Frequency and costs were compared between cohorts before and after matching by propensity score using Poisson regression.

RESULTS

Groups of 8723, 218 and 2180 patients receiving BI, EQW and EBID, respectively, were identified; 188 and 1486 patients receiving EQW and EBID, respectively, were matched 1:1 to patients receiving BI by propensity score. Among unmatched cohorts, total crude mean costs per patient-year were £2765 for EQW, £2549 for EBID and £4080 for BI. Compared with BI, the adjusted annual cost ratio (aACR) was 0.92 (95% CI, 0.91-0.92) for EQW and 0.82 (95% CI, 0.82-0.82) for EBID. Corresponding costs for the propensity-matched subgroups were £2646 vs £3283 (aACR, 0.80, 0.80-0.81) for EQW vs BI and £2532 vs £3070 (aACR, 0.84, 0.84-0.84) for EBID vs BI.

CONCLUSION

Overall, exenatide once-weekly and twice-daily-based regimens were associated with reduced healthcare resource use and costs compared with basal-insulin-based regimens.

Prevalence, glucose control and relative survival of people with Type 2 diabetes in the UK from 1991 to 2013

AIMS

To characterize the prevalence of Type 2 diabetes between 1991 and 2013 in the UK and to determine whether corresponding glucose control and survival had changed in the diabetic population during this period.

METHODS

For this retrospective cohort study, people diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes between 1991 and 2013 were identified from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) and the annual point prevalence calculated. Mean HbA_1c by year was estimated. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate the risk of all-cause mortality by year for incident cases of Type 2 diabetes treated with glucose-lowering therapy.

RESULTS

Crude prevalence of diagnosed Type 2 diabetes increased from 1.32% [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.30% to 1.34%] in 1991 to 4.54% (4.52% to 4.56%) in 2013. Mean HbA_1c for people with diagnosed Type 2 diabetes was 71 mmol/mol (8.6%) in 1991, 59 mmol/mol (7.5%) in 2003 and 58 mmol/mol (7.5%) in 2013. For diagnosed Type 2 diabetes treated with glucose-lowering therapy, when compared with 1991, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 0.33 (0.27-0.41) in 2013.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of diagnosed Type 2 diabetes trebled in the UK between 1991 and 2013. Improved survival in people with diagnosed Type 2 diabetes is likely to account, at least in part, for the increase in prevalence observed.

Risk of cardiovascular events, arrhythmia and all-cause mortality associated with clarithromycin versus alternative antibiotics prescribed for respiratory tract infections: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether treatment with clarithromycin for respiratory tract infections was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) events, arrhythmias or all-cause mortality compared with other antibiotics.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort design comparing clarithromycin monotherapy for lower (LRTI) or upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) with other antibiotic monotherapies for the same indication.

SETTING

Routine primary care data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink and inpatient data from the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES).

PARTICIPANTS

Patients aged ≥35 years prescribed antibiotic monotherapy for LRTI or URTI 1998-2012 and eligible for data linkage to HES.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The main outcome measures were: adjusted risk of first-ever CV event, within 37 days of initiation, in commonly prescribed antibiotics compared with clarithromycin. Secondarily, adjusted 37-day risks of first-ever arrhythmia and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Of 700 689 treatments for LRTI and eligible for the CV analysis, there were 2071 CV events (unadjusted event rate: 29.6 per 10 000 treatments). Of 691 998 eligible treatments for URTI, there were 688 CV events (9.9 per 10 000 treatments). In LRTI and URTI, there were no significant differences in CV risk between clarithromycin and all other antibiotics combined: OR=1.00 (95% CI 0.82 to 1.22) and 0.82 (0.54 to 1.25), respectively. Adjusted CV risk in LRTI versus clarithromycin ranged from OR=1.42 (cefalexin; 95% CI 1.08 to 1.86) to 0.92 (doxycycline; 0.64 to 1.32); in URTI, from 1.17 (co-amoxiclav; 0.68 to 2.01) to 0.67 (erythromycin; 0.40 to 1.11). Adjusted mortality risk versus clarithromycin in LRTI ranged from 0.42 to 1.32; in URTI, from 0.75 to 1.43. For arrhythmia, adjusted risks in LRTI ranged from 0.68 to 1.05; in URTI, from 0.70 to 1.22.

CONCLUSIONS

CV events were more likely after LRTI than after URTI. When analysed by specific indication, CV risk associated with clarithromycin was no different to other antibiotics.

Non-Response to Antibiotic Treatment in Adolescents for Four Common Infections in UK Primary Care 1991-2012: A Retrospective, Longitudinal Study

We studied non-response rates to antibiotics in the under-reported subgroup of adolescents aged 12 to 17 years old, using standardised criteria representing antibiotic treatment failure. Routine, primary care data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) were used. Annual, non-response rates by antibiotics and by indication were determined. We identified 824,651 monotherapies in 415,468 adolescents: 368,900 (45%) episodes for upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs), 89,558 (11%) for lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs), 286,969 (35%) for skin/soft tissue infections (SSTIs) and 79,224 (10%) for acute otitis media (AOM). The most frequently prescribed antibiotics were amoxicillin (27%), penicillin-V (24%), erythromycin (11%), flucloxacillin (11%) and oxytetracycline (6%). In 1991, the overall non-response rate was 9.3%: 11.9% for LRTIs, 9.5% for URTIs, 7.1% for SSTIs, 9.7% for AOM. In 2012, the overall non-response rate was 9.2%. Highest non-response rates were for AOM in 1991–1999 and for LRTIs in 2000–2012. Physicians generally prescribed antibiotics to adolescents according to recommendations. Evidence of antibiotic non-response was less common among adolescents during this 22-year study period compared with an all-age population, where the overall non-response rate was 12%.

Comparative estimated effectiveness of antibiotic classes as initial and secondary treatments of respiratory tract infections: longitudinal analysis of routine data from UK primary care 1991-2012

Purpose To compare the estimated effectiveness of seven frequently prescribed antibiotic classes as initial and secondary treatments of upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) and lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) 1991-2012. The main outcome measure was a surrogate for estimated antibiotic effectiveness. Methods Routine, primary care data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) were used. Having established standardized criteria representing antibiotic treatment failure, estimated treatment effectiveness rates were calculated as one minus the treatment failure rate. For each year from 1991 to 2012, estimated effectiveness rates by treatment line, indication, and sub-indication were calculated. These were presented by antibiotic class, with a sub-analysis for the macrolide clarithromycin. Findings From approximately 58 million antibiotic prescriptions in CPRD, we analyzed 8,654,734 courses of antibiotic monotherapy: 4,825,422 courses (56%) were associated with URTI; 3,829,312 (44%) were associated with LRTI. Amino-penicillins (4,148,729 [56%]), penicillins (1,304,561 [18%]), and macrolides (944,622 [13%]) predominated as initial treatments; macrolides (375,903 [32%]), aminopenicillins (275,866 [23%]), and cephalosporins (159,954 [14%]) as secondary treatments. Macrolides and aminopenicillins had estimated effectiveness rates ≥80% across the study period as initial treatments of URTI and LRTI. In secondary use, only macrolides maintained these rates: 80.7% vs. 79.8% in LRTI, 85.1% vs. 84.5% in throat infections, 80.7% vs. 82.3% in nasal infections, 83.5% vs. 83.8% in unspecified URTI in 1991 and 2012, respectively. Implications After more than two decades, macrolides remained amongst the most effective antibiotic classes for both URTI and LRTI in initial and secondary antibiotic treatment when a further antibiotic course was prescribed. Limitations Antibiotic treatments were classified as intention to treat. It is unknown whether the prescription was redeemed or taken correctly. We do not know the etiology of these infections, therefore evidence of antibiotic non-response may relate to sub-optimal diagnosis and inappropriate treatment rather than antibiotic effectiveness for true bacterial infections.

Association between Insulin Monotherapy versus Insulin plus Metformin and the Risk of All-Cause Mortality and Other Serious Outcomes: A Retrospective Cohort Study

AIMS

To determine if concomitant metformin reduced the risk of death, major adverse cardiac events (MACE), and cancer in people with type 2 diabetes treated with insulin.

METHODS

For this retrospective cohort study, people with type 2 diabetes who progressed to insulin with or without metformin from 2000 onwards were identified from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (≈7% sample of the UK population). The risks of all-cause mortality, MACE and incident cancer were evaluated using multivariable Cox models comparing insulin monotherapy with insulin plus metformin. We accounted for insulin dose.

RESULTS

12,020 subjects treated with insulin were identified, including 6,484 treated with monotherapy. There were 1,486 deaths, 579 MACE (excluding those with a history of large vessel disease), and 680 cancer events (excluding those in patients with a history of cancer). Corresponding event rates were 41.5 (95% CI 39.4-43.6) deaths, 20.8 (19.2-22.5) MACE, and 21.6 (20.0-23.3) cancer events per 1,000 person-years. The adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for people prescribed insulin plus metformin versus insulin monotherapy were 0.60 (95% CI 0.52-0.68) for all-cause mortality, 0.75 (0.62-0.91) for MACE, and 0.96 (0.80-1.15) for cancer. For patients who were propensity-score matched, the corresponding aHRs for all-cause mortality and cancer were 0.62 (0.52-0.75) and 0.99 (0.78-1.26), respectively. For MACE, the aHR was 1.06 (0.75-1.49) prior to 1,275 days and 1.87 (1.22-2.86) after 1,275 days post-index.

CONCLUSIONS

People with type 2 diabetes treated with insulin plus concomitant metformin had a reduced risk of death and MACE compared with people treated with insulin monotherapy. There was no statistically significant difference in the risk of cancer between people treated with insulin as monotherapy or in combination with metformin.

Contemporary Reproductive Outcomes for Patients With Polycystic Ovary Syndrome: A Retrospective Observational Study

CONTEXT

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the most common cause of anovulatory infertility and may be associated with adverse pregnancy and neonatal outcomes. However, it is difficult to establish how much of this risk is due to PCOS and how much to obesity.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to determine the effect of PCOS upon fertility, pregnancy, and neonatal outcomes.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Data were extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), a longitudinal anonymized primary care research database in the United Kingdom. Patients with a diagnosis of PCOS were matched to controls (1:2) by age (±1 y), body mass index (± 3 U), and CPRD practice. Standardized fertility ratios before and after diagnosis (index date) were calculated. Rates of miscarriage, pre-eclampsia, gestational diabetes, premature delivery, delivery method, and neonatal outcomes were compared.

RESULTS

Nine thousand sixty-eight women with PCOS matched study criteria. Prior to index date the standardized fertility ratio for patients with PCOS was 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.77–0.83); following index date it was 1.16 (1.12–1.20). The adjusted odds ratios (95% CI) for miscarriage (1.70; 1.56–1.84), pre-eclampsia (1.32; 1.16–1.49), gestational diabetes (1.41; 1.2–1.66), and premature delivery (1.25; 1.1–1.43) were all increased compared with controls. Of PCOS births, 27.7% were by Caesarean section compared with 23.7% of controls (1.13; 1.05–1.21). Infants born to mothers with PCOS had an increased risk of neonatal jaundice (1.20; 1.03–1.39) and respiratory complications (1.20; 1.06–1.37).

CONCLUSIONS

PCOS is associated with subfertility but fertility rates are restored to those of the background population following diagnosis. Pregnancy complications and adverse neonatal outcomes are more prevalent for women with PCOS independently of obesity.

Glucose-lowering with exogenous insulin monotherapy in type 2 diabetes: dose association with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events and cancer

AIMS

To evaluate the association between insulin exposure and all-cause mortality, incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and incident cancer in people with type 2 diabetes treated with insulin monotherapy.

METHODS

For this retrospective study, people with type 2 diabetes who progressed to insulin monotherapy from the year 2000 were identified from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. The risks of progression to serious adverse outcomes were compared using Cox proportional hazards models. In the main analysis, insulin exposure was introduced into the model as prescribed international units per kilogram per day, as a cumulative, continuous, annually updated, time-dependent covariable.

RESULTS

A total of 6484 subjects with type 2 diabetes who progressed to treatment with insulin monotherapy from the year 2000 onwards were followed for a mean of 3.3 years. The event numbers were as follows: deaths, n = 1110; incident MACE, n = 342; incident cancers, n = 382. Unadjusted event rates were 61.3 deaths per 1000 person-years, 26.4 incident MACE per 1000 person-years and 24.6 incident cancers per 1000 person-years. The adjusted hazard ratios in relation to 1-unit increases in insulin dose were 1.54 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.32-1.78] for all-cause mortality, 1.37 (95% CI 1.05-1.81) for MACE and 1.35 (95% CI 1.04-1.75) for cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

There was an association between increasing exogenous insulin dose and increased risk of all-cause mortality, MACE and cancer in people with type 2 diabetes. The limitations of observational studies mean that this should be further investigated using an interventional study design.

Can people with type 2 diabetes live longer than those without? A comparison of mortality in people initiated with metformin or sulphonylurea monotherapy and matched, non-diabetic controls

AIMS

Clinical and observational studies have shown an increased risk of cardiovascular events and death associated with sulphonylureas versus metformin. However, it has never been determined whether this was due to the beneficial effects of metformin or detrimental effects of sulphonylureas. The objective of this study was therefore to compare all-cause mortality in diabetic patients treated first-line with either sulphonylurea or metformin monotherapy with that in matched individuals without diabetes.

METHODS

We used retrospective observational data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) from 2000. Subjects with type 2 diabetes who progressed to first-line treatment with metformin or sulphonylurea monotherapy were selected and matched to people without diabetes. Progression to all-cause mortality was compared using parametric survival models that included a range of relevant co-variables.

RESULTS

We identified 78,241 subjects treated with metformin, 12,222 treated with sulphonylurea, and 90,463 matched subjects without diabetes. This resulted in a total, censored follow-up period of 503,384 years. There were 7498 deaths in total, representing unadjusted mortality rates of 14.4 and 15.2, and 50.9 and 28.7 deaths per 1000 person-years for metformin monotherapy and their matched controls, and sulphonylurea monotherapy and their matched controls, respectively. With reference to observed survival in diabetic patients initiated with metformin monotherapy [survival time ratio (STR) = 1.0], adjusted median survival time was 15% lower (STR = 0.85, 95% CI 0.81-0.90) in matched individuals without diabetes and 38% lower (0.62, 0.58-0.66) in diabetic patients treated with sulphonylurea monotherapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with type 2 diabetes initiated with metformin monotherapy had longer survival than did matched, non-diabetic controls. Those treated with sulphonylurea had markedly reduced survival compared with both matched controls and those receiving metformin monotherapy. This supports the position of metformin as first-line therapy and implies that metformin may confer benefit in non-diabetes. Sulphonylurea remains a concern.

Association between first-line monotherapy with sulphonylurea versus metformin and risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events: a retrospective, observational study

AIMS

To evaluate the risk of all-cause mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) for patients exposed to first-line monotherapy with sulphonylurea or metformin.

METHODS

Data were from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Patients with type 2 diabetes were selected if initiated with metformin or sulphonylurea monotherapy as their first-line glucose-lowering regimen 2000-2012. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality; the secondary endpoint was MACE (myocardial infarction or stroke). Times to endpoints were compared using Cox proportional hazards models. Additional analyses were performed on subsets matched directly on key characteristics and by propensity score.

RESULTS

In the main analysis, 76 811 patients were prescribed metformin monotherapy (mean follow-up 2.9 years) and 15 687 sulphonylurea monotherapy (mean follow-up 3.1 years). A total of 2604 patients were included in each arm of the directly matched cohorts and 8836 in the propensity-matched. With respect to all-cause mortality, using all three analytical approaches the hazard ratio (HR) was significantly increased for sulphonylurea compared with metformin: adjusted HR = 1.580 (95% CI 1.483-1.684) for the main analysis, 1.902 (1.733-2.088) for those matched on propensity score, and 1.272 (1.021-1.584) for the directly matched cohort analysis. For MACE, the respective HRs were 1.196 (1.090-1.313), 1.202 (1.001-1.442) and 0.814 (0.578-1.148), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

All-cause mortality was significantly increased in patients prescribed sulphonylurea compared with metformin monotherapy. Whilst residual confounding and confounding by indication may remain, this study indicates that first-line treatment with sulphonylurea monotherapy should be reconsidered.

Combination therapy with metformin plus sulphonylureas versus metformin plus DPP-4 inhibitors: association with major adverse cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality

AIMS

To compare the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and mortality for combination therapies with metformin and either sulphonylurea (SU) or dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor (DPP-4i).

METHODS

Data were from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Patients with type 2 diabetes were selected if initiated with combination therapies comprising metformin plus SU or DPP-4i 2007-2012. The co-primary endpoints were all-cause mortality and MACE (myocardial infarction or stroke). Times to endpoints were compared using Cox proportional hazards models. Additional analyses were performed on subsets matched directly on key characteristics and by propensity score.

RESULTS

A total of 33 983 patients were prescribed SU and 7864 DPP-4i, and 5447 patients in each cohort could be matched directly and 6901 by propensity score. In the main analysis, there were 716 MACE events and 1217 deaths. Crude event rates for MACE were 11.3 events per 1000 person-years (pkpy) for SU, versus 5.3 pkpy for DPP-4i. For all-cause mortality, rates were 16.9 versus 7.3 pkpy, respectively. Following adjustment, there was a significant increase in the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for all-cause mortality in those exposed to SU across all analytical models: aHR = 1.357 (95% CI 1.076-1.710) for all subjects, 1.850 (1.245-2.749) directly matched and 1.497 (1.092-2.052) propensity-matched. For MACE, aHR was 1.710 (1.280-2.285) for all subjects, 1.323 (0.832-2.105) directly matched and 1.547 (1.076-2.225) propensity-matched.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a reduction in all-cause mortality for patients treated with metformin combined with DPP-4i versus metformin plus SU, and a similar trend for MACE.

Antibiotic treatment failure in four common infections in UK primary care 1991-2012: longitudinal analysis

OBJECTIVE

To characterise failure of antibiotic treatment in primary care in the United Kingdom in four common infection classes from 1991 to 2012.

DESIGN

Longitudinal analysis of failure rates for first line antibiotic monotherapies associated with diagnoses for upper and lower respiratory tract infections, skin and soft tissue infections, and acute otitis media.

SETTING

Routine primary care data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Adjusted rates of treatment failure defined by standardised criteria and indexed to year 1 (1991=100).

RESULTS

From 58 million antibiotic prescriptions in CPRD, we analysed 10,967,607 monotherapy episodes for the four indications: 4,236,574 (38.6%) for upper respiratory tract infections; 3,148,947 (28.7%) for lower respiratory tract infections; 2,568,230 (23.4%) for skin and soft tissue infections; and 1,013,856 (9.2%) for acute otitis media. In 1991, the overall failure rate was 13.9% (12.0% for upper respiratory tract infections; 16.9% for lower respiratory tract infections; 12.8% for skin and soft tissue infections; and 13.9% for acute otitis media). By 2012, the overall failure rate was 15.4%, representing an increase of 12% compared with 1991 (adjusted value indexed to first year (1991) 112, 95% confidence interval 112 to 113). The highest rate was seen in lower respiratory tract infections (135, 134 to 136). While failure rates were below 20% for most commonly prescribed antibiotics (amoxicillin, phenoxymethylpenicillin (penicillin-V), and flucloxacillin), notable increases were seen for trimethoprim in the treatment of upper respiratory tract infections (from 29.2% in 1991-95 to 70.1% in 2008-12) and for ciprofloxacin (from 22.3% in 1991-95 to 30.8% in 2008-12) and cefalexin (from 22.0% in 1991-95 to 30.8% in 2008-12) in the treatment of lower respiratory tract infections. Failure rates for broad spectrum penicillins, macrolides, and flucloxacillin remained largely stable.

CONCLUSIONS

From 1991 to 2012, more than one in 10 first line antibiotic monotherapies for the selected infections were associated with treatment failure. Overall failure rates increased by 12% over this period, with most of the increase occurring in more recent years, when antibiotic prescribing in primary care plateaued and then increased.

How many people inject insulin? UK estimates from 1991 to 2010

AIMS

We set out to estimate the prevalence rate of insulin use in the UK population, the total number of people in the UK who use insulin, the proportion of users with type 1 and type 2 diabetes and changes between 1991 and 2010.

METHODS

Patients receiving prescriptions for insulin were identified in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and attributed a diagnosis of type 1 or type 2 diabetes. The annual prevalence of insulin use was calculated and applied to population data.

RESULTS

The crude prevalence rate of insulin use increased from 2.43 (95% CI 2.38-2.49) per 1000 population in 1991 to 6.71 (6.64-6.77) per 1000 in 2010. The largest change was an increase in the prevalence of insulin users with a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes from 0.67 (0.64-0.70) to 4.34 (4.29-4.39) per 1000 population. The absolute number using insulin increased from 137 000 people (121 000-155 000) in 1991 to 421 000 (400 000-444 000) in 2010. The proportion taking insulin alone (as against combination with oral agents) decreased from 97% in the first decade to 37% in the second.

CONCLUSION

The number of people using insulin trebled between 1991 and 2010, largely due to a considerable increase in the number of people with type 2 diabetes using insulin.

External validation of the UKPDS risk engine in incident type 2 diabetes: a need for new type 2 diabetes-specific risk equations

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the performance of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Risk Engine (UKPDS-RE) for predicting the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease end points in an independent cohort of U.K. patients newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study using routine health care data collected between April 1998 and October 2011 from ∼350 U.K. primary care practices contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Participants comprised 79,966 patients aged between 35 and 85 years (388,269 person-years) with 4,984 cardiovascular events. Four outcomes were evaluated: first diagnosis of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, fatal CHD, and fatal stroke.

RESULTS

Accounting for censoring, the observed versus predicted 10-year event rates were as follows: CHD 6.1 vs. 16.5%, fatal CHD 1.9 vs. 10.1%, stroke 7.0 vs. 10.1%, and fatal stroke 1.7 vs. 1.6%, respectively. The UKPDS-RE showed moderate discrimination for all four outcomes, with the concordance index values ranging from 0.65 to 0.78.

CONCLUSIONS

The UKPDS stroke equations showed calibration ranging from poor to moderate; however, the CHD equations showed poor calibration and considerably overestimated CHD risk. There is a need for revised risk equations in type 2 diabetes.

Primary prevention of diabetic retinopathy with fibrates: a retrospective, matched cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To compare the progression of diabetic retinopathy (DR) in people with type 2 diabetes treated with fibrates with that of non-exposed controls.

DESIGN

Retrospective, matched cohort study.

SETTING

UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD).

PARTICIPANTS

5038 people with type 2 diabetes with a history of fibrate exposure but without evidence of DR were identified. Three thousand one hundred and seventy-six (63%) people could be randomly matched to one non-exposed control; of these, 2599 (81.8%) were matched without any missing blood pressure or glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) values.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary endpoint was first recorded DR with a secondary endpoint of all-cause mortality or first DR. Time to clinical endpoints was compared using Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Mean follow-up was 5.1 and 5.0 years for fibrate-exposed and non-exposed patients, respectively. For fibrate-exposed participants, there was a reduction in DR: 33.4 events/1000 person-years vs 40.4 (p=0.002), and in death or DR: 50.6 vs 60.2 (p<0.001). For those matched with full systolic blood pressure and HbA1c data, crude event rates were 34.3 versus 43.9 for DR (p<0.001) and 51.2 vs 63.4 (p<0.001) for death or DR. Following adjustment, DR was significantly delayed for those treated with fibrates, with an adjusted HR (aHR) of 0.785 (p<0.001) for participants with complete data and an aHR of 0.802 (p<0.001) for all participants.

CONCLUSIONS

The treatment with fibrates in people with type 2 diabetes was independently associated with reduced progression to a first diagnosis of DR.

The prevalence and incidence, resource use and financial costs of treating people with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in the United Kingdom (1998 to 2010)

BACKGROUND

Attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a common disorder that often presents in childhood and is associated with increased healthcare resource use. The aims of this study were to characterise the epidemiology of diagnosed ADHD in the UK and determine the resource use and financial costs of care.

METHODS

For this retrospective, observational cohort study, patients newly diagnosed with ADHD between 1998 and 2010 were identified from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) and matched to a randomly drawn control group without a diagnosis of ADHD. The prevalence and incidence of diagnosed ADHD were calculated. Resource utilisation and corresponding financial costs post-diagnosis were estimated for general practice contacts, investigations, prescriptions, outpatient appointments, and inpatient admissions.

RESULTS

Incidence of diagnosed ADHD (and percentage change using 1998 as a reference) increased from 6.9 per 100,000 population in 1998 to 12.2 per 100,000 (78%) in 2007 and then fell to 9.9 per 100,000 (44%) by 2009. The corresponding prevalence figures were 30.5, 88.9 (192%) and 81.5 (167%) per 100,000. Incidence and prevalence were higher in males than females. Mean annual total healthcare costs were higher for ADHD cases than controls (£1,327 versus £328 for year 1, £1,196 vs. £337 for year 2, £1,148 vs. £316 for year 3, £1,126 vs. £325 for year 4, and £1,112 vs. £361 for year 5).

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of diagnosed ADHD in routine practice in the UK was notably lower than in previous reports, and both prevalence and incidence of diagnosed ADHD in primary care have fallen since 2007. Financial costs were more than four times higher in those with ADHD than in those without ADHD.

The incidence of type 2 diabetes in the United Kingdom from 1991 to 2010

AIMS

To characterize the incidence of type 2 diabetes in the UK over the previous 20 years; and determine if there has been an increase in people aged 40 years or less at diagnosis.

METHODS

For this retrospective cohort study, patients newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes between 1991 and 2010 were identified from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Patient data were grouped into 5-year intervals by year of diagnosis and age at diagnosis. A standardized incidence ratio (SIR) was determined (1991-1995 = 100). The percentage of newly diagnosed patients for each age group and aged ≤40 years was calculated for each 5-year calendar period. The incidence rate by age and 5-year calendar period was also determined.

RESULTS

In 2010, the crude incidence rate of type 2 diabetes was 515 per 100,000 population. The overall SIR increased to 158 (95% CI 157-160, p < 0.001), 237 (235-238, p < 0.001) and 275 (273-276, p < 0.001) for 1996-2000, 2001-2005 and 2006-2010, respectively. For those ≤40, the respective values were 217 (209-226, p < 0.001), 327 (320-335, p < 0.001) and 598 (589-608, p < 0.001). An increase in incidence occurred with increasing 5-year calendar period. The incidence of type 2 diabetes was higher for males after the age of 40 and higher for females aged ≤40. The percentage of patients aged ≤40 years at diagnosis increased with each increasing 5-year calendar period (5.9, 8.4, 8.5 and 12.4%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

There was a significant increase in the incidence of diagnosed type 2 diabetes between 1991 and 2010 and the proportion of people diagnosed at a relatively early age has increased markedly.

The impact of treatment non-compliance on mortality in people with type 1 diabetes

AIMS

To determine if a diagnostic record of poor treatment compliance (medication non-compliance and/or non-attendance at medical appointments) was associated with all-cause mortality in people with type 1 diabetes.

METHODS

This is an observational cohort study of data extracted from The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database, comprising data on patients served by over 350 primary care practices in the U.K. Participants were included in the study if they had diagnostic codes indicative of type 1 diabetes. Treatment non-compliance was defined as missing one or more scheduled appointment, or one or more codes indicating medication non-compliance.

RESULTS

Of 2946 patients with type 1 diabetes, 867 (29.4%) had a record of either appointment non-attendance or medication non-compliance in the 30 month compliance assessment period. The crude, unadjusted mortality rate for those patients who were treatment non-compliant was 1.462 (95% CI 0.954-2.205). Following adjustment for confounding factors, treatment non-compliance was associated with increased all-cause mortality (HR=1.642; 95% CI 1.055-2.554).

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment non-compliance was associated with increased all-cause mortality in patients with type 1 diabetes. Understanding and addressing factors that contribute to patient treatment non-compliance will be important in improving the life expectancy of patients with type 1 diabetes.

What next after metformin? A retrospective evaluation of the outcome of second-line, glucose-lowering therapies in people with type 2 diabetes

CONTEXT

After failure of metformin monotherapy, many second-line, glucose-lowering therapies are available to treat people with type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the study was to compare clinical outcomes using common alternative regimens.

DESIGN AND SETTING

This was a retrospective cohort study using data from the U.K.-based General Practice Research Database.

PATIENTS

These were primary care patients with type 2 diabetes who had metformin monotherapy as their first treatment and who then initiated on relevant second-line, glucose-lowering regimens during the study period 2000-2010. A total of 27,457 patients were prescribed a second-line therapy, of whom 26,278 (95.7%) were prescribed a regimen with 1,000 or more observations.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

All-cause mortality, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), cancer, and a combined end point of any of these were measured. Secondary end points were change in glycosylated hemoglobin between baseline and 12 months. Time to clinical end points was compared using Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Sulfonylurea monotherapy had significantly higher hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality (HR 1.459, 1.207-1.763); MACE (HR 1.578, 1.187-2.099); stroke (HR 1.444, 1.050-1.987); and the combined end point (HR 1.381, 1.194-1.597). Metformin plus pioglitazone had significantly lower adjusted HRs for all-cause mortality (HR 0.707, 0.515-0.970) and the combined end point (HR 0.747, 0.612-0.911). Mean glycosylated hemoglobin improved between baseline and 12 months for all regimens other than sulfonylurea monotherapy.

CONCLUSION

The combination of metformin plus pioglitazone appears to provide superior clinical outcomes compared with the most commonly used regimen, metformin plus sulfonylurea. Sulfonylurea monotherapy resulted in worse outcome.

Evaluation of adverse outcome in young women with polycystic ovary syndrome versus matched, reference controls: a retrospective, observational study

CONTEXT

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is associated with insulin resistance, hyperandrogenism, and dyslipidemia, but the effects of these disturbances on long-term health are not fully understood.

AIM

Our aim was to determine the relative risk of type 2 diabetes, cancer, large-vessel disease (LVD), and all-cause mortality for women diagnosed with PCOS.

DESIGN

Data were extracted from the General Practice Research Database, a longitudinal, anonymized research database derived from nearly 600 primary-care practices in the United Kingdom. Patients with a diagnosis of PCOS between 1990 and 2010 were selected. Patients were matched to two sets of controls. The first set was matched according to primary-care practice and age, and the second was also matched on body mass index. Primary outcome was first incident record of diabetes. Crude rates for diabetes were presented, and time to diabetes was analyzed using Cox proportional hazard models. Secondary outcomes (cancer, LVD, and mortality) were also modeled.

RESULTS

Of 53,303 identified with a diagnosis of PCOS, 21,740 (40.8%) met the eligibility criteria. Median follow-up was 4.7 yr (interquartile range = 2.0-8.6 yr) in those with PCOS and 5.8 yr (2.7-9.6) in the reference group. Crude rates of diabetes were 5.7 and 1.7 per 1000 patient-years for cases and controls, respectively. The corresponding adjusted hazard ratio was 3.015 (95% confidence interval = 2.733-3.327). Of cases matched by body mass index, crude rates of diabetes were 4.7 and 2.4 per 1000 patient-years, respectively. The corresponding adjusted hazard ratio was 1.752 (1.514-2.028). No significant difference in BMI-adjusted risk was evident for cancer, LVD, or all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

During this follow-up period, women with PCOS were not at increased risk of LVD, cancer, or death, but they had increased risk of type 2 diabetes.

The impact of treatment noncompliance on mortality in people with type 2 diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association of compliance with treatment (medication and clinic appointments) and all-cause mortality in people with insulin-treated type 2 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Data were extracted from U.K. general practice records and included patients (N = 15,984) who had diagnostic codes indicative of type 2 diabetes or who had received a prescription for an oral antidiabetic agent and were treated with insulin. Records in the 30 months before the index date were inspected for clinical codes (recorded at consultation) indicating medication noncompliance or medical appointment nonattendance. Noncompliance was defined as missing more than one scheduled visit or having at least one provider code for not taking medications as prescribed. Relative survival postindex date was compared by determining progression to all-cause mortality using Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Those identified as clinic nonattenders were more likely to be smokers, younger, have higher HbA(1c), and have more prior primary care contacts and greater morbidity (P < 0.001). Those identified as medication noncompliers were more likely to be women (P = 0.001), smokers (P = 0.014), and have higher HbA(1c), more prior primary care contacts, and greater morbidity (all P < 0.001). After adjustment for confounding factors, medication noncompliance (hazard ratio 1.579 [95% CI 1.167-2.135]), clinic nonattendance of one or two missed appointments (1.163 [1.042-1.299]), and clinic nonattendance of greater than two missed appointments (1.605 [1.356-1.900]) were independent risk factors for all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Medication noncompliance and clinic nonattendance, assessed during routine care by primary care physicians or their staff, were independently associated with increased all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes receiving insulin.

Weight change in people with type 2 diabetes: secular trends and the impact of alternative antihyperglycaemic drugs

AIM

This study aimed to describe the pattern of weight change in people with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) over time and when using alternative treatment regimens.

METHODS

Data were from routine clinical practice in the UK. The weight trend was determined for each year from 1995 to 2010 for both prevalent and incident cases. Baseline weight was compared to absolute (mean Δ) and relative weights (% Δ) at 6, 12 and 24 months.

RESULTS

Mean, standardized weight in prevalent cases increased from 83.4 to 92.1 kg for males and from 73.5 to 79.9 kg for females between 1995 and 2010 (p < 0.0001). For incident cases, the respective figures were 86.7 to 93.6 kg for males and 76.0 to 80.7 kg for females (p < 0.001). Between baseline and 6, 12 and 24 months, there were significant changes in weight for the majority of the treatment regimens selected for analysis. The largest weight increase at 12 months was for the patients who were prescribed a combination therapy with insulin and a thiazolidinedione, with a median increase of 4.1 kg (95% CI -0.60 to 8.0, p < 0.001). The largest weight decrease at 12 months was for the patients who were prescribed a combination therapy of metformin and exenatide, with a median decrease of -7.0 kg (95% CI -12.0 to -2.0, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

There was a continual increase in body weight in people with T2DM over time, and considerable differences in the impact on weight using alternative treatment regimens. At the same time, glycaemic control remained relatively unchanged.

Mortality after incident cancer in people with and without type 2 diabetes: impact of metformin on survival

OBJECTIVE

Type 2 diabetes is associated with an increased risk of several types of cancer and with reduced survival after cancer diagnosis. We examined the hypotheses that survival after a diagnosis of solid-tumor cancer is reduced in those with diabetes when compared with those without diabetes, and that treatment with metformin influences survival after cancer diagnosis.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Data were obtained from >350 U.K. primary care practices in a retrospective cohort study. All individuals with or without diabetes who developed a first tumor after January 1990 were identified and records were followed to December 2009. Diabetes was further stratified by treatment regimen. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare all-cause mortality from all cancers and from specific cancers.

RESULTS

Of 112,408 eligible individuals, 8,392 (7.5%) had type 2 diabetes. Cancer mortality was increased in those with diabetes, compared with those without (hazard ratio 1.09 [95% CI 1.06-1.13]). Mortality was increased in those with breast (1.32 [1.17-1.49]) and prostate cancer (1.19 [1.08-1.31]) but decreased in lung cancer (0.84 [0.77-0.92]). When analyzed by diabetes therapy, mortality was increased relative to nondiabetes in those on monotherapy with sulfonylureas (1.13 [1.05-1.21]) or insulin (1.13 [1.01-1.27]) but reduced in those on metformin monotherapy (0.85 [0.78-0.93]).

CONCLUSIONS

This study confirmed that type 2 diabetes was associated with poorer prognosis after incident cancer, but that the association varied according to diabetes therapy and cancer site. Metformin was associated with survival benefit both in comparison with other treatments for diabetes and in comparison with a nondiabetic population.