Malaria Transmission at The Zimbabwe-Mozambique Border: An Observational Study of Parasitemia by Travel History and Household Location

Cross-border human population movement contributes to malaria transmission in border regions, impeding national elimination. However, its impact in low-to-moderate transmission settings is not well characterized. This community-based study in Mutasa District, Zimbabwe, estimated the association of parasite prevalence with self-reported overnight travel to Mozambique and household distance to the border from 2012-2020. A fully adjusted Poisson regression model with robust variance estimation was fit using active surveillance data. The population attributable fraction of parasite prevalence from overnight travel was also estimated. The relative risk of testing positive for malaria by rapid diagnostic test declined 14% (prevalence ratio [PR] = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.81-0.92) per kilometer from the border up to 12 km away. Travel to Mozambique was associated with a 157% increased risk (PR = 2.57, 95% CI = 1.38-4.78), although only 5.8% of cases were attributable to overnight travel (95% CI = -1.1% to 12.7%), reflecting infrequent overnight trips (1.3% of visits). This study suggests that transmission in eastern Zimbabwe is driven by increasingly conducive social or environmental conditions approaching the border and low levels of importation from overnight travel. Although day trips to Mozambique during peak biting hours were not assessed, the contribution of such trips to ongoing transmission may be significant. Future malaria control efforts should prioritize high coverage of existing interventions and continued support for community health workers and health facilities at the border, which provide free case management.

A Scoping Review of Gut Microbiome and Bifidobacterium Research in Zimbabwe: Implications for Future Studies

Background

Gut microbiota play a key role in host health, with certain Bifidobacterium strains critical for immune development. The healthy gut of breastfed infants is dominated by these pioneer microbes, especially the strains that feed on human milk oligosaccharides.

Objective

This is a scoping review of gut microbiome research from Zimbabwe. It focuses on distribution and dynamic changes of bifidobacteria, and milk components that promote growth of microbes in infants, together with the distribution of associated gut microbes in adults.

Design

Online databases were searched for publications from 2000 to 2023.

Results and Analysis

Fourteen publications on microbiota of infants and adults were included in this scoping review. Most were cross-sectional, while three were clinical trials/cohort protocols. Publications focused on pediatrics (78.5%), pregnant women (14.3%), and men (7.2%). Zimbabwe has a high burden of HIV; hence 35.7% of study populations were delineated by HIV status. The laboratory methods used included shotgun metagenomics (62%) or 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing. Almost 85% of the studies focused on total microbiome profiles and rarely reported the distribution of different Bifidobacterium species and variants. None of the papers studied human breast milk composition. There were reports of reduced abundance of beneficial genera in pregnant women, children, and adolescents living with HIV. Additionally, gut microbiota was reported to be poorly predictive of child growth and vaccine response, though this was not conclusive.

Conclusion

There are few studies that characterize the gut microbiome by Zimbabwe-based researchers. However, studies on strain level diversity of Bifidobacterium and other key microbes, and their role in health during and beyond infancy, lag behind in Zimbabwe and other low- and middle-income countries. Such cohorts are needed to inform future mechanistic studies and downstream translational work such as next-generation probiotics and prebiotics.

Clinic-based SAMBA-II vs centralized laboratory viral load assays among HIV-1 infected children, adolescents and young adults in rural Zimbabwe: A randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

In Zimbabwe, children, adolescents and young adults living with HIV (CALWH) who are on public health antiretroviral therapy (ART) have inadequate viral load (VL) suppression. We assessed whether a clinic-based VL monitoring could decrease 12-month virologic failure rates among these CALWH.

METHODS

The study was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03986099. CALWH in care at Chidamoyo Christian Hospital (CCH) and 8 rural outreach sites (ROS) on long-term community-based ART were randomized (1:1) to 6 monthly VL monitoring by COBAS®Ampliprep®/Taqman48® HIV-1 at the provincial referral laboratory (PRL) as per standard of care (SOC) or by the clinic-based SAMBA II assay, Diagnostics for the Real World, at CCH. VL suppression, turn-around-time (TAT) for VL results, drug switching and drug resistance in second-line failure were assessed at 12 months.

RESULTS

Of 390 CALWH enrolled 347 (89%) completed 12 months follow-up. Median (IQR) age and ART duration were 14.1 (9.7-18.2) and 6.4 (3.7-7.9) years, respectively. Over half (57%) of the participants were female. At enrolment, 78 (20%) had VL ≥1,000 copies/ml and VL suppression of 80% was unchanged after 12 months, with no significant difference between the SOC (81%) and the clinic-based (80%) arms (p = 0.528). Median (IQR) months to confirmatory VL result at CCH vs PRL was 4.0 (2.1-4.4) vs 4.5 (3.5-6.3) respectively; p = 0.027 at 12 months. Drug switching was documented among 26/347 (7%) participants with no difference between the median (IQR) time to switch in SOC vs clinic-based arms (5.1 (3.9-10.0) months vs 4.4 (2.5-8.4) respectively; p = 0.569). Out of 24 confirmed second-line failures, only 4/19 (21%) had protease inhibitor resistance.

CONCLUSION

In rural Zimbabwe, the clinic-based SAMBA II assay was able to provide confirmatory VL results faster than the SOC VL assay at the PRL. However, this rapid TAT did not allow for a more efficient drug switch among these CALWH.

On Campus HIV Self-Testing Distribution at Tertiary Level Colleges in Zimbabwe Increases Access to HIV Testing for Youth

PURPOSE

HIV self-testing allows youth to access testing outside of healthcare facilities. We investigated the feasibility of peer distribution of HIV self-testing (HIVST) kits to youth aged 16-24 years and examined the factors associated with testing off-site rather than at distribution points.

METHODS

From July 2019 to March 2020, HIVST kits were distributed on 12 tertiary education campuses throughout Zimbabwe. Participants chose to test at the HIVST distribution point or off-site. Factors associated with choosing to test off-site and factors associated with reporting a self-test result for those who tested off-site were investigated using logistic regression.

RESULTS

In total, 5,351 participants received an HIVST kit, over 129 days, of whom 3,319 (62%) tested off-site. The median age of recipients was 21 years (interquartile range 20-23); 64% were female. Overall, 2,933 (55%) returned results, 23 (1%) of which were reactive. Being female (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.16, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.31), living on campus (aOR 1.24, 95% CI 1.09-1.40), used a condom at last sex (aOR 1.44, 95% CI 1.26-1.65), and previous knowledge of HIVST (aOR 1.22, 95% CI 1.09-1.37) were associated with off-site testing. Attending a vocational college and teachers training college compared to a university was associated with choosing to return results for those who tested off-site (OR 2.40, 95% CI 1.65-3.48, p < .001).

DISCUSSION

HIVST distribution is an effective method of reaching a large number of youth over a short period of time. Efforts to increase awareness and roll out of HIVST on campuses should be coupled with support for linkage to HIV prevention and treatment services.

Characterizing human movement patterns using GPS data loggers in an area of persistent malaria in Zimbabwe along the Mozambique border

BACKGROUND

Human mobility is a driver for the reemergence or resurgence of malaria and has been identified as a source of cross-border transmission. However, movement patterns are difficult to measure in rural areas where malaria risk is high. In countries with malaria elimination goals, it is essential to determine the role of mobility on malaria transmission to implement appropriate interventions.

METHODS

A study was conducted in Mutasa District, Zimbabwe, to investigate human movement patterns in an area of persistent transmission along the Mozambique border. Over 1 year, a convenience sample of 20 participants/month was recruited from active malaria surveillance cohorts to carry an IgotU^® GT-600 global positioning system (GPS) data logger during all daily activities. Consenting participants were tested for malaria at data logger distribution using rapid antigen diagnostic tests and completed a survey questionnaire. GPS data were analyzed using a trajectory analysis tool, and participant movement patterns were characterized throughout the study area and across the border into Mozambique using movement intensity maps, activity space plots, and statistical analyses.

RESULTS

From June 2016-May 2017, 184 participants provided movement tracks encompassing > 350,000 data points and nearly 8000 person-days. Malaria prevalence at logger distribution was 3.7%. Participants traveled a median of 2.8 km/day and spent a median of 4.6 h/day away from home. Movement was widespread within and outside the study area, with participants traveling up to 500 km from their homes. Indices of mobility were higher in the dry season than the rainy season (median km traveled/day = 3.5 vs. 2.2, P = 0.03), among male compared to female participants (median km traveled/day = 3.8 vs. 2.0, P = 0.0008), and among adults compared to adolescents (median total km traveled = 104.6 vs. 59.5, P = 0.05). Half of participants traveled outside the study area, and 30% traveled into Mozambique, including 15 who stayed in Mozambique overnight.

CONCLUSIONS

Study participants in Mutasa District, Zimbabwe, were highly mobile throughout the year. Many participants traveled long distances from home, including overnight trips into Mozambique, with clear implications for malaria control. Interventions targeted at mobile populations and cross-border transmission may be effective in preventing malaria introductions in this region.

What Heterogeneities in Individual-level Mobility Are Lost During Aggregation? Leveraging GPS Logger Data to Understand Fine-scale and Aggregated Patterns of Mobility

Human movement drives spatial transmission patterns of infectious diseases. Population-level mobility patterns are often quantified using aggregated data sets, such as census migration surveys or mobile phone data. These data are often unable to quantify individual-level travel patterns and lack the information needed to discern how mobility varies by demographic groups. Individual-level datasets can capture additional, more precise, aspects of mobility that may impact disease risk or transmission patterns and determine how mobility differs across cohorts; however, these data are rare, particularly in locations such as sub-Saharan Africa. Using detailed GPS logger data collected from three sites in southern Africa, we explore metrics of mobility such as percent time spent outside home, number of locations visited, distance of locations, and time spent at locations to determine whether they vary by demographic, geographic, or temporal factors. We further create a composite mobility score to identify how well aggregated summary measures would capture the full extent of mobility patterns. Although sites had significant differences in all mobility metrics, no site had the highest mobility for every metric, a distinction that was not captured by the composite mobility score. Further, the effects of sex, age, and season on mobility were all dependent on site. No factor significantly influenced the number of trips to locations, a common way to aggregate datasets. When collecting and analyzing human mobility data, it is difficult to account for all the nuances; however, these analyses can help determine which metrics are most helpful and what underlying differences may be present.

Policy Implications of the Southern and Central Africa International Center of Excellence for Malaria Research: Ten Years of Malaria Control Impact Assessments in Hypo-, Meso-, and Holoendemic Transmission Zones in Zambia and Zimbabwe

The International Centers of Excellence for Malaria Research (ICEMR) were established by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases more than a decade ago to provide multidisciplinary research support to malaria control programs worldwide, operating in endemic areas and contributing technology, expertise, and ultimately policy guidance for malaria control and elimination. The Southern and Central Africa ICEMR has conducted research across three main sites in Zambia and Zimbabwe that differ in ecology, entomology, transmission intensity, and control strategies. Scientific findings led to new policies and action by the national malaria control programs and their partners in the selection of methods, materials, timing, and locations of case management and vector control. Malaria risk maps and predictive models of case detection furnished by the ICEMR informed malaria elimination programming in southern Zambia, and time series analyses of entomological and parasitological data motivated several major changes to indoor residual spray campaigns in northern Zambia. Along the Zimbabwe-Mozambique border, temporal and geospatial data are currently informing investigations into a recent resurgence of malaria. Other ICEMR findings pertaining to parasite and mosquito genetics, human behavior, and clinical epidemiology have similarly yielded immediate and long-term policy implications at each of the sites, often with generalizable conclusions. The ICEMR programs thereby provide rigorous scientific investigations and analyses to national control and elimination programs, without which the impediments to malaria control and their potential solutions would remain understudied.

Scientific Findings of the Southern and Central Africa International Center of Excellence for Malaria Research: Ten Years of Malaria Control Impact Assessments in Hypo-, Meso-, and Holoendemic Transmission Zones in Zambia and Zimbabwe

For a decade, the Southern and Central Africa International Center of Excellence for Malaria Research has operated with local partners across study sites in Zambia and Zimbabwe that range from hypo- to holoendemic and vary ecologically and entomologically. The burden of malaria and the impact of control measures were assessed in longitudinal cohorts, cross-sectional surveys, passive and reactive case detection, and other observational designs that incorporated multidisciplinary scientific approaches: classical epidemiology, geospatial science, serosurveillance, parasite and mosquito genetics, and vector bionomics. Findings to date have helped elaborate the patterns and possible causes of sustained low-to-moderate transmission in southern Zambia and eastern Zimbabwe and recalcitrant high transmission and fatality in northern Zambia. Cryptic and novel mosquito vectors, asymptomatic parasite reservoirs in older children, residual parasitemia and gametocytemia after treatment, indoor residual spraying timed dyssynchronously to vector abundance, and stockouts of essential malaria commodities, all in the context of intractable rural poverty, appear to explain the persistent malaria burden despite current interventions. Ongoing studies of high-resolution transmission chains, parasite population structures, long-term malaria periodicity, and molecular entomology are further helping to lay new avenues for malaria control in southern and central Africa and similar settings.

Tenofovir, Lamivudine, and Dolutegravir Among Rural Adolescents in Zimbabwe: A Cautionary Tale

Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate, lamivudine, and dolutegravir (TLD) as a safe and more effective single daily dose regimen is rolling out in Africa for people living with HIV. Although access to viral load (VL) testing is improving, patients may still be transitioned to TLD with virological failure and potential drug resistance. We reviewed annual VL test results of 390 children and adolescents who had enrolled in a community-based antiretroviral therapy program in rural Zimbabwe between 2018 and 2019. VL testing was done by the near point of care simplified amplification-based assays (Diagnostics for the Real World, Sunnyvale, CA, USA) at Chidamoyo Christian Hospital and rate of virological suppression (VS) on TLD (VL <1,000 copies/mL) was assessed. Overall, 184 children and adolescents on TLD were enrolled in this study. The median [interquartile range (IQR)] age was 15 (11-19) years, above half of the participants were female (57%). Before switching to TLD, rate of VS was 76% (139/184). After a median (IQR) duration of 6.9 (5.5-9.1) months on TLD, VS was observed in 95% (174/184) of the participants. Of the 10 participants with VL ≥1,000 copies/mL on TLD, 90% (9/10) were failing on their previous regimens, 6 of 9 (67%) having been on boosted protease inhibitor-based regimens. A high rate (95%) of VS was observed among children and adolescents on TLD in rural Zimbabwe. TLD may address the problems of virological failure and emergence of resistance in Africa. However, longer follow-up might be needed to ascertain sustained VS in this vulnerable population. Randomized Control Trial NCT03986099.

Progress Toward the 90-90-90 HIV Targets in Zimbabwe and Identifying Those Left Behind

OBJECTIVE

We present findings from the nationally representative Zimbabwe Population-based HIV Impact Assessment that characterize Zimbabwe's progress toward the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 90-90-90 targets.

DESIGN

We conducted a cross-sectional household survey.

METHODS

Consenting adults and children in the household were eligible to participate in Zimbabwe Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (October 2015-August 2016). Participants completed face-to-face interviews and provided blood for HIV, CD4, viral load, and syphilis testing. Viral load suppression (VLS) was defined as HIV RNA <1000 copies/mL. HIV-positive specimens were tested for the presence of selected antiretroviral drugs. Data were weighted. Analysis was restricted to HIV-positive adults aged 15-64 years.

RESULTS

We enrolled 11,098 men and 14,033 women aged 15-64 years. HIV prevalence was 14.1%. Of those living with HIV, 76.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 74.9 to 78.7) were aware of their HIV status or had detectable antiretroviral levels. Of these, 88.4% (95% CI: 87.1 to 89.7) were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), and of these people, 85.3% (95% CI: 83.4 to 87.1) had VLS. Male sex age 15-34 years and having 1 or more sexual partners were associated with being unaware of one's HIV-positive status. Age <50 years and not taking cotrimoxazole were associated with being less likely to be being both aware and taking ART. Male sex, age <50 years, and taking cotrimoxazole were associated with being on ART but not having VLS.

CONCLUSIONS

Zimbabwe has made great strides toward epidemic control. Focusing resources on case finding, particularly among men, people aged <35 years, and sexually active individuals can help Zimbabwe attain 90-90-90 targets.

Steep Rebound of Chloroquine-Sensitive Plasmodium falciparum in Zimbabwe

Removal of chloroquine from national malaria formularies can lead to the reversion of resistant Plasmodium falciparum to wild-type. We report a steep decline in chloroquine-resistant P falciparum within 10 years of national discontinuation of chloroquine monotherapy in Zimbabwe. Drug resistance surveillance is a vital component of malaria control programs, and the experience with chloroquine in Zimbabwe and elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa is illustrative of the potentially rapid and dramatic impact of drug policy on antimalarial resistance.

Viral load care of HIV-1 infected children and adolescents: A longitudinal study in rural Zimbabwe

INTRODUCTION

Maintaining virologic suppression of children and adolescents on ART in rural communities in sub-Saharan Africa is challenging. We explored switching drug regimens to protease inhibitor (PI) based treatment and reducing nevirapine and zidovudine use in a differentiated community service delivery model in rural Zimbabwe.

METHODS

From 2016 through 2018, we followed 306 children and adolescents on ART in Hurungwe, Zimbabwe at Chidamoyo Christian Hospital, which provides compact ART regimens at 8 dispersed rural community outreach sites. Viral load testing was performed (2016) by Roche and at follow-up (2018) by a point of care viral load assay. Virologic failure was defined as viral load ≥1,000 copies/ml. A logistic regression model which included demographics, treatment regimens and caregiver's characteristics was used to assess risks for virologic failure and loss to follow-up (LTFU).

RESULTS

At baseline in 2016, 296 of 306 children and adolescents (97%) were on first-line ART, and only 10 were receiving a PI-based regimen. The median age was 12 years (IQR 8-15) and 55% were female. Two hundred and nine (68%) had viral load suppression (<1,000 copies/ml) and 97(32%) were unsuppressed (viral load ≥1000). At follow-up in 2018, 42/306 (14%) were either transferred 23 (7%) or LTFU 17 (6%) and 2 had died. In 2018, of the 264 retained in care, 107/264 (41%), had been switched to second-line, ritonavir-boosted PI with abacavir as a new nucleotide analog reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI). Overall viral load suppression increased from 68% in 2016 to 81% in 2018 (P<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Viral load testing, and switching to second-line, ritonavir-boosted PI with abacavir significantly increased virologic suppression among HIV-infected children and adolescents in rural Zimbabwe.

A comparison of HIV outpatient care in primary and secondary healthcare-level settings in Zimbabwe

Setting

Decentralisation of HIV care to nurse-led primary care services is being implemented across low- and middle-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

Objective

To compare services offered to clients attending for HIV care at a physician-led and a nurse-led service in Harare, Zimbabwe.

Design

A cross-sectional study was performed at Harare Central Hospital (HCH) and Budiriro Primary Care Clinic (PCC) from June to August 2018. An interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to collect sociodemographics, HIV treatment and clinical history from clients attending for routine HIV care. The Mann-Whitney U-test was used to evaluate for differences between groups for continuous variables. For categorical variables, the χ² test was used.

Results

The median age of the 404 participants recruited was 38 years (IQR 28-47); 69% were female. Viral suppression was comparable between sites (HCH, 70% vs. PCC, 80%; P = 0.07); however, screening for comorbidities such as cervical cancer screening (HCH, 61% vs. PCC, 41%; P = 0.001) and provision of referral services (HCH, 23% vs. PCC, 13%; P = 0.01) differed between sites.

Conclusion

Efforts to improve service provision in primary care settings are needed to ensure equity for users of health services.

Unexpectedly High Prevalence of Cytomegalovirus DNAemia in Older Children and Adolescents With Perinatally Acquired Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection

Background

Older children and adolescents with perinatally acquired human immunodeficiency virus (PHIV) infection in Africa experience multiple comorbidities that are not typical of HIV-associated opportunistic infections, including growth impairment and chronic lung disease. We examined associations between plasma cytomegalovirus (CMV) DNA and lung function and growth.

Methods

Plasma CMV DNA loads were measured children aged 6–16 years with PHIV (n = 402) and HIV-uninfected controls (n = 224). The HIV-infected children were either newly diagnosed or known HIV infected and stable on antiretroviral therapy (ART) for >6 months. CMV DNA loads were measured using quantitative polymerase chain reaction. CMV DNAemia was modeled as a time-varying outcome using longitudinal mixed-effects logistic regression.

Results

At enrollment, CMV DNAemia ≥1000 copies/mL (defined as “clinically significant”) was detected in 5.8% of uninfected children, 14.7% of HIV-infected participants stable on ART, and 22.6% of HIV-infected ART-naive children (χ² = 23.8, P < .001). The prevalence of CMV DNAemia ≥1000 copies/mL was associated with CD4 counts <350 cells/µL. Among HIV-infected ART-naive children, the presence of CMV DNAemia of ≥1000 copies/mL was independently associated with reduced lung function (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 3.23; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.23–8.46; P = .017). Among ART-treated children, stunting was associated with CMV DNAemia of ≥1000 copies/mL (aOR = 2.79; 95% CI, 0.97–8.02; P = .057).

Conclusions

Clinically significant levels of CMV DNAemia were common in older children with PHIV, even those on ART, suggesting a role for inadequately controlled CMV infection in the pathogenesis of PHIV comorbidities in Africa.

Antimicrobial Resistance in Gram-negative bacteria from Urinary Specimens: a study of prevalence, risk factors and molecular mechanisms of resistance (ARGUS) in Zimbabwe - a study protocol

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is compromising our ability to successfully treat infections. There are few data on gram-negative AMR prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa especially from the outpatient setting. This study aims to investigate the prevalence of and underlying molecular mechanisms for AMR in gram-negative bacilli causing urinary tract infections (UTIs) in Zimbabwe. Risk factors for AMR and how AMR impacts on clinical outcomes will also be investigated. Adults presenting with UTI symptoms at primary health clinics in Harare will be included. A questionnaire will be administered, and urine samples will be collected for culture. Participants with positive urine cultures will be followed up at 7-14 days post-enrolment. All participants will also be followed by telephone at 28 days to determine clinical outcomes. Bacterial identification and antibiotic susceptibility testing will be performed on positive cultures. The results from this study will be used to inform policy and development of treatment recommendations. Whole genome sequencing results will provide a better understanding of the prevalent resistance genes in Zimbabwe, of the spread of successful clones, and potentially will contribute to developing strategies to tackle AMR.

Results-based financing as a strategic purchasing intervention: some progress but much further to go in Zimbabwe?

BACKGROUND

Results-Based Financing (RBF) has proliferated in the health sectors of low and middle income countries, especially those which are fragile or conflict-affected, and has been presented by some as a way of reforming and strengthening strategic purchasing. However, few if any studies have empirically and systematically examined how RBF impacts on health care purchasing. This article examines this question in the context of Zimbabwe's national RBF programme.

METHODS

The article is based on a documentary review, including 60 documents from 2008 to 2018, and 40 key informant (KI) interviews conducted with international, national and district level stakeholders in early 2018 in Zimbabwe. Interviews and analysis of both datasets followed an existing framework for strategic purchasing, adapted to reflect changes over.

RESULTS

We find that some functions, such as assessing service infrastructure gaps, are unaffected by RBF, while others, such as mobilising resources, are partially affected, as RBF has focused on one package of care (maternal and child health services) within the wider essential health care, and has contributed important but marginal costs. Overall purchasing arrangements remain fragmented. Limited improvements have been made to community engagement. The clearest changes to purchasing arrangements relate to providers, at least in relation to the RBF services. Its achievements included enabling flexible resources to reach primary providers, funding supervision and emphasising the importance of reporting.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis suggests that RBF in Zimbabwe, at least at this early stage, is mainly functioning as an additional source of funding and as a provider payment mechanism, focussed on the primary care level for MCH services. RBF in this case brought focus to specific outputs but remained one provider payment mechanism amongst many, with limited traction over the main service delivery inputs and programmes. Zimbabwe's economic and political crisis provided an important entry point for RBF, but Zimbabwe did not present a 'blank slate' for RBF to reform: it was a functional health system pre-crisis, which enabled relatively swift scale-up of RBF but also meant that the potential for restructuring of institutional purchasing relationships was limited. This highlights the need for realistic and contextually tailored expectations of RBF.

The IMpact of Vertical HIV infection on child and Adolescent SKeletal development in Harare, Zimbabwe (IMVASK Study): a protocol for a prospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has reduced mortality so that increasing numbers of children with HIV (CWH) are surviving to adolescence. However, they experience a range of morbidities due to chronic HIV infection and its treatment. Impaired linear growth (stunting) is a common manifestation, affecting up to 50% of children. However, the effect of HIV on bone and muscle development during adolescent growth is not well characterised. Given the close link between pubertal timing and musculoskeletal development, any impairments in adolescence are likely to impact on future adult musculoskeletal health. We hypothesise that bone and muscle mass accrual in CWH is reduced, putting them at risk of reduced bone mineral density (BMD) and muscle function and increasing fracture risk. This study aims to determine the impact of HIV on BMD and muscle function in peripubertal children on ART in Zimbabwe.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Children with (n=300) and without HIV (n=300), aged 8-16 years, established on ART, will be recruited into a frequency-matched prospective cohort study and compared. Musculoskeletal assessments including dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, peripheral quantitative computed tomography, grip strength and standing long jump will be conducted at baseline and after 1 year. Linear regression will be used to estimate mean size-adjusted bone density and Z-scores by HIV status (ie, total-body less-head bone mineral content for lean mass adjusted for height and lumbar spine bone mineral apparent density. The prevalence of low size-adjusted BMD (ie, Z-scores <-2) will also be determined.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval for this study has been granted by the Medical Research Council of Zimbabwe and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Ethics Committee. Baseline and longitudinal analyses will be published in peer-reviewed journals and disseminated to research communities.

The political economy of results-based financing: the experience of the health system in Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

Since 2000, results based financing (RBF) has proliferated in health sectors in Africa in particular, including in fragile and conflict affected settings (FCAS) and there is a growing but still contested literature about its relevance and effectiveness. Less examined are the political economy factors behind the adoption of the RBF policy, as well as the shifts in influence and resources which RBF may bring about. In this article, we examine these two topics, focusing on Zimbabwe, which has rolled out RBF nationwide in the health system since 2011, with external support.

METHODS

The study uses an adapted political economy framework, integrating data from 40 semi-structured interviews with local, national and international experts in 2018 and thematic analysis of 60 policy documents covering the decade between 2008 and 2018.

RESULTS

Our findings highlight the role of donors in initiating the RBF policy, but also how the Zimbabwe health system was able to adapt the model to suit its particular circumstances - seeking to maintain a systemic approach, and avoiding fragmentation. Although Zimbabwe was highly resource dependent after the political-economic crisis of the 2000s, it retained managerial and professional capacity, which distinguishes it from many other FCAS settings. This active adaptation has engendered national ownership over time, despite initial resistance to the RBF model and despite the complexity of RBF, which creates dependence on external technical support. Adoption was also aided by ideological retro-fitting into an earlier government performance management policy. The main beneficiaries of RBF were frontline providers, who gained small but critical additional resources, but subject to high degrees of control and sanctions.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights resource-seeking motivations for adopting RBF in some low and middle income settings, especially fragile ones, but also the potential for local health system actors to shape and adapt RBF to suit their needs in some circumstances. This means less structural disruption in the health system and it increases the likelihood of an integrated approach and sustainability. We highlight the mix of autonomy and control which RBF can bring for frontline providers and argue for clearer understanding of the role that RBF commonly plays in these settings.

Flexibility of deployment: challenges and policy options for retaining health workers during crisis in Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

Zimbabwe experienced a socio-economic crisis from 1997 to 2008 which heavily impacted all sectors. In this context, human resource managers were confronted with the challenge of health worker shortage in rural areas and, at the same time, had to operate under a highly centralised, government-centred system which defined health worker deployment policies. This study examines the implementation of deployment policies in Zimbabwe before, during and after the crisis in order to analyse how the official policy environment evolved over time, present the actual practices used by managers to cope with the crisis and draw lessons. 'Deployment' here was considered to include all the human resource management functions for getting staff into posts and managing subsequent movements: recruitment, bonding, transfer and secondment. The study contributes to address the existing paucity of evidence on flexibility on implementation of policies in crisis/conflict settings.

METHODS

This retrospective study investigates deployment policies in government and faith-based organisation health facilities in Zimbabwe before, during and after the crisis. A document review was done to understand the policy environment. In-depth interviews with key informant including policy makers, managers and health workers in selected facilities in three mainly rural districts in the Midlands province were conducted. Data generated was analysed using a framework approach.

RESULTS

Before the crisis, health workers were allowed to look for jobs on their own, while during the crisis, they were given three choices and after the crisis the preference choice was withdrawn. The government froze recruitment in all sectors during the crisis which severely affected health workers' deployment. In practice, the implementation of the deployment policies was relatively flexible. In some cases, health workers were transferred to retain them, the recruitment freeze was temporarily lifted to fill priority vacancies, the length of the bonding period was reduced including relaxation of withholding certificates, and managers used secondment to relocate workers to priority areas.

CONCLUSION

Flexibility in the implementation of deployment policies during crises may increase the resilience of the system and contribute to the retention of health workers. This, in turn, may assist in ensuring coverage of health services in hard-to-reach areas.

Distinct Antibody Signatures Associated with Different Malaria Transmission Intensities in Zambia and Zimbabwe

Antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum are specific biomarkers that can be used to monitor parasite exposure over broader time frames than microscopy, rapid diagnostic tests, or molecular assays. Consequently, seroprevalence surveys can assist with monitoring the impact of malaria control interventions, particularly in the final stages of elimination, when parasite incidence is low. The protein array format to measure antibodies to diverse P. falciparum antigens requires only small sample volumes and is high throughput, permitting the monitoring of malaria transmission on large spatial and temporal scales. We expanded the use of a protein microarray to assess malaria transmission in settings beyond those with a low malaria incidence. Antibody responses in children and adults were profiled, using a P. falciparum protein microarray, through community-based surveys in three areas in Zambia and Zimbabwe at different stages of malaria control and elimination. These three epidemiological settings had distinct serological profiles reflective of their malaria transmission histories. While there was little correlation between transmission intensity and antibody signals (magnitude or breadth) in adults, there was a clear correlation in children younger than 5 years of age. Antibodies in adults appeared to be durable even in the absence of significant recent transmission, whereas antibodies in children provided a more accurate picture of recent levels of transmission intensity. Seroprevalence studies in children could provide a valuable marker of progress toward malaria elimination.IMPORTANCE As malaria approaches elimination in many areas of the world, monitoring the effect of control measures becomes more important but challenging. Low-level infections may go undetected by conventional tests that depend on parasitemia, particularly in immune individuals, who typically show no symptoms of malaria. In contrast, antibodies persist after parasitemia and may provide a more accurate picture of recent exposure. Only a few parasite antigens-mainly vaccine candidates-have been evaluated in seroepidemiological studies. We examined antibody responses to 500 different malaria proteins in blood samples collected through community-based surveillance from areas with low, medium, and high malaria transmission intensities. The breadth of the antibody responses in adults was broad in all three settings and was a poor correlate of recent exposure. In contrast, children represented a better sentinel population for monitoring recent malaria transmission. These data will help inform the use of multiplex serology for malaria surveillance.

Evaluation of weight-based prescription of antiretroviral therapy in children

Objectives

The aim of the study was to investigate the extent of and factors associated with incorrect dosing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in HIV‐infected children in Harare, Zimbabwe.

Methods

All children aged 0–10 years and children aged 11–17 years who weighed < 35 kg and taking ART were recruited from the paediatric HIV clinic at Harare Hospital. Their current doses of ART drugs were compared against doses recommended by the national guidelines.

Results

Among 309 children recruited [55% male; median age 7 years (interquartile range (IQR) 5–10 years)], the median CD4 count was 899 cells/μL and the median duration of their current ART regimen was 11.2 months (IQR 4.9–17.1 months). Overall, 110 (35.6%) children were prescribed incorrect doses of at least one drug component within their ART regimen; 64 (20.7%) under‐dosed and 49 (15.9%) over‐dosed on at least one drug. Children receiving a higher than recommended dose of at least one drug were younger compared with correctly dosed children (median 6 versus 7 years, respectively; P = 0.001), had been on their current ART regimen for a shorter time (median 7.2 versus 13 months, respectively; P = 0.003) and were less likely to be receiving a three‐drug fixed‐dose combination (FDC; 42.9 versus 63.3%, respectively; P = 0.009). Those who were under‐dosed were also less likely to be on a three‐drug FDC (25 versus 63.3%, respectively; P < 0.001).

Conclusions

Over a third of children were prescribed incorrect doses of ART. Children taking triple‐drug FDCs were likely to be correctly dosed. Our study highlights the importance of weight monitoring at each clinical contact, training of health care providers on paediatric drug dosing and the need for wider availability of FDCs for children.

Screening tool to identify adolescents living with HIV in a community setting in Zimbabwe: A validation study

INTRODUCTION

A simple cost-effective strategy to pre-screen for targeted HIV testing can have substantial benefit in high burden and resource limited settings. A 4-item (previous hospitalisation, orphanhood, poor health status, and recurring skin problems) screening tool to identify adolescents living with HIV has previously shown high sensitivity in healthcare facility settings. We validated this screening tool in a community setting, in Harare, Zimbabwe in a community-based HIV prevalence survey.

METHODS

A community-based HIV prevalence survey was conducted among individuals aged 8-17 years with guardian consent and child assent and residing in 7 communities during the period February 2015 to December 2015. Participants without previously diagnosed HIV were evaluated for the probability of having HIV using the screening tool. HIV status was defined using an anonymous HIV test which was done using Oral Mucosal Transudate (OMT). A questionnaire was also administered to ascertain self-reported HIV status and screening tool items. The validity of a 4-item screening tool was tested. Sensitivity and specificity of the screening tool was assessed against the HIV status based on OMT result.

RESULTS

Prevalence survey participants were 5386 children who had an HIV test result, aged 8-17 years. However, 5384, who did not report testing HIV positive and responded to all screening tool item questions were included in the validation. Their median age was 12 (IQR: 10-15) years, 2515 (46.7%) were male. HIV prevalence was 1.3% (95% CI:1.0-1.8%). The 4-item screening tool had poor accuracy with an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.65(95% CI: 0.60-0.72) at a cut-off score≥1. Its sensitivity was 56.3% (95% CI:44.0-68.1%) and specificity of 75.1% (95% CI:73.9-76.3%), PPV of 2.9% (95% CI:2.1-3.9%) and a NPV of 99.2% (95% CI:98.9-99.5%). The number needed to test to diagnose one child using the screening tool was 55% lower than universal testing for HIV.

CONCLUSION

Use of the 4-item screening tool could be a strategy that can be adopted to identify children living with HIV in a community setting in resource limited settings by reducing the number needed to test compared to universal testing since it is inexpensive, easy to administer and not harmful. However, screening items adapted to a community setting need to be explored to improve the performance of the screening tool.

The role of community health workers in improving HIV treatment outcomes in children: lessons learned from the ZENITH trial in Zimbabwe

Reliance on community health workers (CHWs) for HIV care continues to increase, particularly in resource-limited settings. CHWs can improve HIV service use and adherence to treatment, but effectiveness of these programmes relies on providing an enabling work environment for CHWs, including reasonable workload, supportive supervision and adequate training and supplies. Although criteria for effective CHW programmes have been identified, these have rarely been prospectively applied to design and evaluation of new interventions. For the Zimbabwe study for Enhancing Testing and Improving Treatment of HIV in Children (ZENITH) randomized controlled trial, we based our intervention on an existing evidence-based framework for successful CHW programmes. To assess CHWs’ experiences delivering the intervention, we conducted longitudinal, qualitative semi-structured interviews with all 19 CHWs at three times during implementation. The study aimed to explore CHWs’ perceptions of how the intervention’s structure and management affected their performance, and consider implications for the programme’s future scale-up and adoption in other settings. CHWs expressed strong motivation, commitment and job satisfaction. They considered the intervention acceptable and feasible to deliver, and levels of satisfaction rose over interview rounds. Intensive supervision and mentoring emerged as critical to ensuring CHWs’ long-term satisfaction. Provision of job aids, standardized manuals and refresher training were also important, as were formalized links between clinics and CHWs. Concerns raised by CHWs included poor remuneration, their reluctance to stop providing support to individual families following the requisite number of home visits, and disappointment at the lack of programme sustainability following completion of the trial. Furthermore, intensive supervision and integration with clinical services may be difficult to replicate outside a trial setting. This study shows that existing criteria for designing successful CHW programmes are useful for maximizing effectiveness, but challenges remain for ensuring long-term sustainability of ‘task shifting’ strategies.

Familial silence surrounding HIV and non-disclosure of HIV status to older children and adolescents

Increasing numbers of children with HIV are surviving to adolescence and beyond, many of whom are orphaned. Disclosure of childrens' and adolescents' HIV status has been shown to improve adherence and retention in HIV treatment programmes. We investigated caregiving arrangements and intra-familial experience of HIV and its relationship to HIV disclosure to older children and adolescents. Children aged 6–15 years, newly diagnosed with HIV infection or previously diagnosed but not engaged in HIV care, were recruited from seven primary care clinics in Harare, Zimbabwe. Their caregivers responded to a nurse-led questionnaire. Family history of HIV, disclosure of HIV status to the child and reasons for non-disclosure were ascertained. The association between sociodemographics, caregiving, family HIV history and other characteristics and non-disclosure of HIV status to the child was determined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. We recruited 385 participants, median age = 11 years (IQR: 9–13); 52% were female. Disclosure had occurred in 79% of children aged 11–15 years and 19% of children aged 6–10 years. Age under 11 years (adjusted OR [aOR] = 18.89, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.64–33.55; p < 0.001), being male [aOR]= 2.56, 95% CI = 1.49–4.54; p = 0.001, being unaware of the parents’ HIV status [aOR]= 32.42, 95% CI = 13.19–79.71; p < 0.001, and being newly diagnosed [aOR]= 2.52, 95% CI = 1.29–4.91; p = 0.007, were independently associated with non-disclosure. Disclosure outside of the family occurred infrequently and included friends of family (7%), school teacher (8%), school headmaster (4%) and church pastor (6%). High non-disclosure rates were present as well as a lack of discussion about HIV within the family. Disclosure outside of family was low reflecting difficulty in caregivers’ ability to discuss HIV with their child or surrounding community. HIV programmes need to support families in the disclosure process.

Disability, social functioning and school inclusion among older children and adolescents living with HIV in Zimbabwe

OBJECTIVE

Increasing numbers of children with HIV are surviving to adolescence and encountering multiple clinical and social consequences of long-standing HIV infection. We aimed to investigate the association between HIV and disability, social functioning and school inclusion among 6- to 16-year-olds in Zimbabwe.

METHODS

HIV-infected children receiving antiretroviral therapy from a public-sector HIV clinic and HIV-uninfected children attending primary care clinics in the same catchment area were recruited. Standardised questionnaires were used to collect socio-demographic, social functioning and disability data. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between HIV status and disability and functioning.

RESULTS

We recruited 202 HIV-infected and 285 HIV-uninfected children. There was no difference in age and gender between the two groups, but a higher proportion of HIV-infected children were orphaned. The prevalence of any disability was higher in HIV-infected than uninfected children (37.6% vs. 18.5%, P < 0.001). HIV-infected children were more likely to report anxiety (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 4.4; 95% CI 2.4, 8.1), low mood (aOR 4.2; 2.1, 8.4) and difficulty forming friendships (aOR 14.8; 1.9, 116.6) than uninfected children. Children with HIV also reported more missed school days, repeating a school year and social exclusion in class. These associations remained apparent when comparing children with HIV and disability to those with HIV but no disabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

Children with HIV commonly experience disabilities, and this is associated with social and educational exclusion. Rehabilitation and support services are needed to facilitate educational attainment and social participation in this group.

Economic incentives for HIV testing by adolescents in Zimbabwe: a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

HIV testing is the important entry point for HIV care and prevention service, but uptake of HIV testing and thus coverage of antiretroviral therapy are much lower in older children and adolescents than in adults. We investigated the effect of economic incentives provided to caregivers of children aged 8-17 years on uptake of HIV testing and counselling in Harare, Zimbabwe.

METHODS

This randomised controlled trial was nested within a household HIV prevalence survey of children aged 8-17 years in Harare. Households with one or more survey participants whose HIV status was unknown were eligible to participate in the trial. Eligible households were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to either receive no incentive, receive a fixed US$2 incentive, or participate in a lottery for $5 or $10 if the participant presented for HIV testing and counselling at a local primary health-care centre. The survey fieldworkers who enrolled participants were not blinded to trial arm allocation, but the statistician was blinded for analysis of outcome. The primary outcome was the proportion of households in which at least one child had an HIV test within 4 weeks of enrolment. HIV test uptake in the incentivised groups was compared with uptake in the non-incentivised group using logistic regression, adjusting for community and number of children as fixed effects and research assistant as a random effect. All analyses were by intention to treat. The trial is registered with the Pan African Clinical Trials Registry, number PACTR201605001615280.

FINDINGS

Between Aug 4, and Dec 18, 2015, 2050 eligible households were enrolled in the prevalence survey. 649 (32%) households were assigned no incentive, 740 (34%) households were assigned a $2 incentive, and 661 (32%) households were assigned to lottery participation. Children were unavailable in 148 households in the no-incentive group, 63 households in the $2 incentive group, and 81 households in the lottery group. 1688 households had at least one child with unknown HIV status and were enrolled into the trial. 22 households had no undiagnosed child, and one household refused consent. The primary outcome of HIV testing was assessed in 472 (28%) households in the no-incentive group, 654 (39%) households in the $2 incentive group, and 562 (33%) households in the lottery group. At least one child was HIV tested in 93 (20%) households in the no-incentive group, in 316 (48%) households in the $2 incentive group (adjusted odds ratio 3·67, 95% CI 2·77-4·85; p<0·0001), and in 223 (40%) of 562 households in the lottery group (2·66, 2·00-3·55; p<0·0001). No adverse events were reported.

INTERPRETATION

Fixed incentives and lottery-based incentives increased the uptake of HIV testing by older children and adolescents, a key hard-to-reach population. This strategy would be sustainable in the context of vertical HIV infection as repeated testing would not be necessary until sexual debut.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

Inclusion of edaphic predictors for enhancement of models to determine distribution of soil-transmitted helminths: the case of Zimbabwe

Background

Reliable mapping of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) parasites requires rigorous statistical and machine learning algorithms capable of integrating the combined influence of several determinants to predict distributions. This study tested whether combining edaphic predictors with relevant environmental predictors improves model performance when predicting the distribution of STH, Ascaris lumbricoides and hookworms at a national scale in Zimbabwe.

Methods

Geo-referenced parasitological data obtained from a 2010/2011 national survey indicating a confirmed presence or absence of STH among school children aged 10–15 years was used to calibrate ten species distribution models (SDMs). The performance of SDMs calibrated with a set of environmental and edaphic variables was compared to that of SDMs calibrated with environmental variables only. Model performance was evaluated using the true skill statistic and receiver operating characteristic curve.

Results

Results show a significant improvement in model performance for both A. lumbricoides and hookworms for all ten SDMs after edaphic variables were combined with environmental variables in the modelling of the geographical distribution of the two STHs at national scale. Using the top three performing models, a consensus prediction was developed to generate the first continuous maps of the potential distribution of the two STHs in Zimbabwe.

Conclusions

The findings from this study demonstrate significant model improvement if relevant edaphic variables are included in model calibration resulting in more accurate mapping of STH. The results also provide spatially-explicit information to aid targeted control of STHs in Zimbabwe and other countries with STH burden.

Malaria knowledge and bed net use in three transmission settings in southern Africa

Background

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) reduce malaria morbidity and mortality in endemic areas. Despite increasing availability, the use of ITNs remains limited in some settings. Poor malaria knowledge is a barrier to the widespread use of ITNs. The goal of this study was to assess the levels of malaria knowledge and evaluate factors associated with bed net use among individuals residing in three regions of southern Africa with different levels of malaria transmission and control.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted on a sample of 7535 residents recruited from 2066 households in Mutasa District, Zimbabwe (seasonal malaria transmission), Choma District, Zambia (low transmission) and Nchelenge District, Zambia (high transmission), between March 2012 and March 2017. A standardized questionnaire was used to collect data on demographics, malaria-related knowledge and use of preventive measures. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess determinants of bed net use.

Results

Most of the 3836 adult participants correctly linked mosquito bites to malaria (85.0%), mentioned at least one malaria symptom (95.5%) and knew of the benefit of sleeping under an ITN. Bed net ownership and use were highest in Choma and Nchelenge Districts and lowest in Mutasa District. In multivariate analyses, knowledge of ITNs was associated with a 30–40% increased likelihood of bed net use after adjusting for potential confounders across all sites. Other factors significantly associated with bed net use were age, household size and socioeconomic status, although the direction, strength and size of association varied by study site. Importantly, participants aged 5–14 years had reduced odds of sleeping under a bed net compared to children younger than 5 years.

Conclusion

Relevant knowledge of ITNs translated into the expected preventive behaviour of sleeping under a bed net, underscoring the need for continued health messaging on malaria prevention. The implementation and delivery of malaria control and elimination interventions needs to consider socioeconomic equity gaps, and target school-age children to ensure access to and improve utilization of ITNs.

The effect of community-based support for caregivers on the risk of virological failure in children and adolescents with HIV in Harare, Zimbabwe (ZENITH): an open-label, randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Children and adolescents have poorer HIV treatment outcomes than adults. We aimed to assess the effect of community-based support for caregivers of HIV-infected children and adolescents, who are key mediators to children engaging with care, on treatment outcomes.

METHODS

In this open-label, randomised contolled trial, we recruited children aged 6-15 years with newly-diagnosed HIV attending primary health-care clinics in Harare, Zimbabwe. Children were randomly assigned to receive decentralised primary health-care clinic-based HIV care (control group), according to national guidelines for 18 months, or decentralised care plus structured support visits by trained community health workers (intervention group) according to national guidelines for 18 months. Primary outcomes were the proportion of participants who died or had an HIV viral load of 400 copies per mL or higher at 12 months after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation (among those who started ART within 6 months of enrolment); and the proportion who missed two or more scheduled clinic visits by 18 months post-enrolment (among all participants). Analyses were complete-case, modified-intention-to-treat. This trial is registered with the Pan African Clinical Trials Registry, number PACTR201212000442288.

FINDINGS

Between January, 2013, and January, 2015, 470 participants tested HIV-positive at seven study primary health-care clinics and were screened for eligibility. Of the 334 eligible children and adolescents, 166 were randomly assigned to the intervention group and 168 to the control group. The median age of participants was 11 years (IQR 8-13) and 178 (53%) were girls. Among the 238 participants who started ART within 6 months of enrolment, the proportion who died or had a viral load of 400 copies/mL or higher at 12 months post-ART initiation was significantly lower in the intervention group than in the control group (31 [33%] of 94 participants vs 42 [49%] of 86 participants, respectively, adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0·46, 95% CI 0·23-0·89; p=0·02). The proportion of children missing two or more scheduled visits was similar in the intervention group and control group (27 [17%] of 155 vs 30 [18%] of 165, aOR 0·92, 95% CI 0·49-1·74; p=0·79). One participant withdrew from the trial 240 days after enrolment and 12 died during follow-up (five in the intervention group; seven in the control group).

INTERPRETATION

Community-based support for caregivers has high potential for scalability and could have a substantial effect on HIV virological suppression in children and adolescents, a group with disproportionately poor treatment outcomes.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

Documenting and explaining the HIV decline in east Zimbabwe: the Manicaland General Population Cohort

PURPOSE

The Manicaland cohort was established to provide robust scientific data on HIV prevalence and incidence, patterns of sexual risk behaviour and the demographic impact of HIV in a sub-Saharan African population subject to a generalised HIV epidemic. The aims were later broadened to include provision of data on the coverage and effectiveness of national HIV control programmes including antiretroviral therapy (ART).

PARTICIPANTS

General population open cohort located in 12 sites in Manicaland, east Zimbabwe, representing 4 major socioeconomic strata (small towns, agricultural estates, roadside settlements and subsistence farming areas). 9,109 of 11,453 (79.5%) eligible adults (men 17-54 years; women 15-44 years) were recruited in a phased household census between July 1998 and January 2000. Five rounds of follow-up of the prospective household census and the open cohort were conducted at 2-year or 3-year intervals between July 2001 and November 2013. Follow-up rates among surviving residents ranged between 77.0% (over 3 years) and 96.4% (2 years).

FINDINGS TO DATE

HIV prevalence was 25.1% at baseline and had a substantial demographic impact with 10-fold higher mortality in HIV-infected adults than in uninfected adults and a reduction in the growth rate in the worst affected areas (towns) from 2.9% to 1.0%pa. HIV infection rates have been highest in young adults with earlier commencement of sexual activity and in those with older sexual partners and larger numbers of lifetime partners. HIV prevalence has since fallen to 15.8% and HIV incidence has also declined from 2.1% (1998-2003) to 0.63% (2009-2013) largely due to reduced sexual risk behaviour. HIV-associated mortality fell substantially after 2009 with increased availability of ART.

FUTURE PLANS

We plan to extend the cohort to measure the effects on the epidemic of current and future HIV prevention and treatment programmes. Proposals for access to these data and for collaboration are welcome.

Clinical outcomes in children and adolescents initiating antiretroviral therapy in decentralized healthcare settings in Zimbabwe

INTRODUCTION

Decentralized HIV care for adults does not appear to compromise clinical outcomes. HIV care for children poses additional clinical and social complexities. We conducted a prospective cohort study to investigate clinical outcomes in children aged 6-15 years who registered for HIV care at seven primary healthcare clinics (PHCs) in Harare, Zimbabwe.

METHODS

Participants were recruited between January 2013 and December 2014 and followed for 18 months. Rates of and reasons for mortality, hospitalization and unscheduled PHC attendances were ascertained. Cox proportional modelling was used to determine the hazard of death, unscheduled attendances and hospitalization.

RESULTS

We recruited 385 participants, median age 11 years (IQR: 9-13) and 52% were female. The median CD4 count was 375 cells/mm3 (IQR: 215-599) and 77% commenced ART over the study period, with 64% of those who had viral load measured achieving an HIV viral load <400 copies/ml. At 18 months, 4% of those who started ART vs. 24% of those who remained ART-naïve were lost-to-follow-up (p < 0.001). Hospitalization and mortality rates were low (8.14/100 person-years (pyrs) and 2.86/100 pyrs, respectively). There was a high rate of unscheduled PHC attendances (34.94/100 pyrs), but only 7% resulted in hospitalization. Respiratory disease was the major cause of hospitalization, unscheduled attendances and death. CD4 count <350cells/mm3 was a risk factor for hospitalization (aHR 3.6 (95%CI 1.6-8.2)).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite only 64% of participants achieving virological suppression, clinical outcomes were good and high rates of retention in care were observed. This demonstrates that in an era moving towards differentiated care in addition to implementation of universal treatment, decentralized HIV care for children is achievable. Interventions to improve adherence in this age-group are urgently needed.

Echocardiographic reference ranges in older children and adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa

Background

Echocardiographic reference ranges are important to identify abnormalities of cardiac dimensions. Reference ranges for children in sub-Saharan Africa have not been established. The aim of this study was to establish echocardiographic z-score references for Black children in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

282 healthy subjects aged 6–16 years (143 [51%] males) with no known history of cardiac disease were enrolled in the study in Harare, Zimbabwe between 2014 and 2016. Standard M-mode echocardiography was performed and nine cardiac chamber dimensions were obtained. Two non-linear statistical models (gamma weighted model and cubic polynomial model) were tested on the data and the best fitting model was used to calculate z-scores of these cardiac chamber measures. The reference ranges are presented on scatter plots against BSA.

Results

Normative data for the following cardiac measures were obtained and z-scores calculated: right ventricular diameter at end diastole (RVEDD); left ventricular diameter at end diastole (LVEDD) and systole (LVESD); interventricular septal wall thickness at end diastole (IVSd) and systole (IVSs); left ventricular posterior wall thickness at end diastole (LVPWd) and systole (LVPWs); left atrium diameter at end systole (LA) and tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE). Girls had higher values for BMI and heart rate than boys (p = 0.048 and p = 0.001, respectively). Mean interventricular septal and left ventricular posterior walls thickness was higher than published normal values in predominantly Caucasian populations.

Conclusion

These are the first echocardiographic reference ranges for children from sub Saharan Africa and will allow accurate assessment of cardiac dimensions in clinical practice.

Individual- and Household-Level Risk Factors Associated with Malaria in Mutasa District, Zimbabwe: A Serial Cross-Sectional Study

Malaria constitutes a major public health problem in Zimbabwe, particularly in the north and east bordering Zambia and Mozambique. In Manicaland Province in eastern Zimbabwe, malaria transmission is seasonal and unstable. Over the past decade, Manicaland Province has reported increased malaria transmission due to limited funding, drug resistance and insecticide resistance. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors at the individual and household levels to better understand the epidemiology of malaria and guide malaria control strategies in eastern Zimbabwe. Between October 2012 and September 2014, individual demographic data and household characteristics were collected from cross-sectional surveys of 1,116 individuals residing in 316 households in Mutasa District, one of the worst affected districts. Factors associated with malaria, measured by rapid diagnostic test (RDT), were identified through multilevel logistic regression models. A total of 74 participants were RDT positive. Sleeping under a bed net had a protective effect against malaria despite pyrethroid resistance in the mosquito vector. Multivariate analysis showed that malaria risk was higher among individuals younger than 25 years, residing in households located at a lower household density and in closer proximity to the Mozambique border. The risk factors identified need to be considered in targeting malaria control interventions to reduce host-vector interactions.

High-Resolution Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Risk Mapping in Mutasa District, Zimbabwe: Implications for Regaining Control

In Zimbabwe, more than half of malaria cases are concentrated in Manicaland Province, where seasonal malaria epidemics occur despite intensified control strategies. The objectives of this study were to develop a prediction model based on environmental risk factors and obtain seasonal malaria risk maps for Mutasa District, one of the worst affected districts in Manicaland Province. From October 2012 to September 2015, 483 households were surveyed, and 104 individuals residing within 69 households had positive rapid diagnostic test results. Logistic regression was used to model the probability of household positivity as a function of the environmental covariates extracted from high-resolution remote sensing data sources. Model predictions and prediction standard errors were generated for the rainy and dry seasons. The resulting maps predicted elevated risk during the rainy season, particularly in low-lying areas bordering Mozambique. In contrast, the risk of malaria was low across the study area during the dry season with foci of malaria risk scattered along the northern and western peripheries of the study area. These findings underscore the need for strong cross-border malaria control initiatives to complement country-specific interventions.

Reduction in Malaria Incidence following Indoor Residual Spraying with Actellic 300 CS in a Setting with Pyrethroid Resistance: Mutasa District, Zimbabwe

Background

More than half of malaria cases in Zimbabwe are concentrated in Manicaland Province, where seasonal malaria epidemics occur despite intensified control strategies. Recently, high levels of pyrethroid and carbamate resistance were detected in Anopheles funestus, the major malaria vector in eastern Zimbabwe. In response, a single round of indoor residual spraying (IRS) using pirimiphos-methyl (an organophosphate) was implemented in four high burden districts of Manicaland Province from November 1, 2014 to December 19, 2014. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of this programmatic switch in insecticides on malaria morbidity reported from health care facilities in Mutasa District, one of the worst affected districts in Manicaland Province.

Methods

The number of weekly malaria cases for each health facility 24 months prior to the 2014 IRS campaign and in the subsequent high transmission season were obtained from passive case surveillance. Environmental variables were extracted from remote-sensing data sources and linked to each health care facility. Negative binomial regression was used to model the weekly number of malaria cases, adjusted for seasonality and environmental variables.

Results

From December 2012 to May 2015, 124,206 malaria cases were reported from 42 health care facilities in Mutasa District. Based on a higher burden of malaria, 20 out of 31 municipal wards were sprayed in the district. Overall, 87.3% of target structures were sprayed and 92.1% of the target population protected. During the 6 months after the 2014 IRS campaign, a period when transmission would have otherwise peaked, the incidence of malaria was 38% lower than the preceding 24 months at health facilities in the sprayed wards.

Conclusions

Pirimiphos-methyl had a measurable impact on malaria incidence and is an effective insecticide for the control of An. funestus in eastern Zimbabwe.

HLA Correlates of Long-Term Survival in Vertically Infected HIV-1-Positive Adolescents in Harare, Zimbabwe

African infants with vertically acquired HIV infection progress rapidly, with only 50% surviving beyond 2 years in the absence of treatment. Despite this high initial mortality, recent reports describe a substantial burden of older children living with untreated vertically acquired HIV infection in Southern Africa. The immunological and genetic factors associated with long-term survival following vertical infection are poorly understood. We performed medium-to-high resolution HLA typing on DNA samples obtained from a cohort of presumed vertically HIV-1-infected children and age-matched uninfected controls in Harare, Zimbabwe. Overall, 93 HLA class I alleles were detected in the study population with a significant enrichment of HLA-C*08:02 and -C*08:04 in the HIV-1-infected long-term survivor group. Conversely, HLA-A*02:01, A*34:02, and -B*58:02 were overrepresented in the uninfected control group. Our data indicate that HLA alleles may have differential effects against HIV acquisition and disease progression in vertical HIV-1 infection.

HIV in children in a general population sample in East Zimbabwe: prevalence, causes and effects

Background

There are an estimated half-million children living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. The predominant source of infection is presumed to be perinatal mother-to-child transmission, but general population data about paediatric HIV are sparse. We characterise the epidemiology of HIV in children in sub-Saharan Africa by describing the prevalence, possible source of infection, and effects of paediatric HIV in a southern African population.

Methods

From 2009 to 2011, we conducted a household-based survey of 3389 children (aged 2–14 years) in Manicaland, eastern Zimbabwe (response rate: 73.5%). Data about socio-demographic correlates of HIV, risk factors for infection, and effects on child health were analysed using multi-variable logistic regression. To assess the plausibility of mother-to-child transmission, child HIV infection was linked to maternal survival and HIV status using data from a 12-year adult HIV cohort.

Results

HIV prevalence was (2.2%, 95% CI: 1.6–2.8%) and did not differ significantly by sex, socio-economic status, location, religion, or child age. Infected children were more likely to be underweight (19.6% versus 10.0%, p = 0.03) or stunted (39.1% versus 30.6%, p = 0.04) but did not report poorer physical or psychological ill-health. Where maternal data were available, reported mothers of 61/62 HIV-positive children were deceased or HIV-positive. Risk factors for other sources of infection were not associated with child HIV infection, including blood transfusion, vaccinations, caring for a sick relative, and sexual abuse. The observed flat age-pattern of HIV prevalence was consistent with UNAIDS estimates which assumes perinatal mother-to-child transmission, although modelled prevalence was higher than observed prevalence. Only 19/73 HIV-positive children (26.0%) were diagnosed, but, of these, 17 were on antiretroviral therapy.

Conclusions

Childhood HIV infection likely arises predominantly from mother-to-child transmission and is associated with poorer physical development. Overall antiretroviral therapy uptake was low, with the primary barrier to treatment appearing to be lack of diagnosis.

Insecticide resistance and role in malaria transmission of Anopheles funestus populations from Zambia and Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

Two mitochondrial DNA clades have been described in Anopheles funestus populations from southern Africa. Clade I is common across the continent while clade II is known only from Mozambique and Madagascar. The specific biological status of these clades is at present unknown. We investigated the possible role that each clade might play in the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum and the insecticide resistance status of An. funestus from Zimbabwe and Zambia.

METHODS

Mosquitoes were collected inside houses from Nchelenge District, Zambia and Honde Valley, Zimbabwe in 2013 and 2014. WHO susceptibility tests, synergist assays and resistance intensity tests were conducted on wild females and progeny of wild females. ELISA was used to detect Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite protein. Specimens were identified to species and mtDNA clades using standard molecular methods.

RESULTS

The Zimbabwean samples were all clade I while the Zambian population comprised 80% clade I and 20% clade II in both years of collection. ELISA tests gave an overall infection rate of 2.3% and 2.1% in 2013, and 3.5% and 9.2% in 2014 for Zimbabwe and Zambia respectively. No significant difference was observed between the clades. All populations were resistant to pyrethroids and carbamates but susceptible to organochlorines and organophosphates. Synergist assays indicated that pyrethroid resistance is mediated by cytochrome P450 mono-oxygenases. Resistance intensity tests showed high survival rates after 8-hrs continuous exposure to pyrethroids but exposure to bendiocarb gave the same results as the susceptible control.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first record of An. funestus mtDNA clade II occurring in Zambia. No evidence was found to suggest that the clades are markers of biologically separate populations. The ability of An. funestus to withstand prolonged exposure to pyrethroids has serious implications for the use of these insecticides, either through LLINs or IRS, in southern Africa in general and resistance management strategies should be urgently implemented.

The impact of HIV on children's education in eastern Zimbabwe

Little is known about how HIV impacts directly and indirectly on receiving, or particularly succeeding in, education in sub-Saharan Africa. To address this gap, we used multivariable logistic regression to determine the correlation between education outcomes in youth (aged 15–24) (being in the correct grade-for-age, primary school completion and having at least five “O” level passes) and being HIV-positive; having an HIV-positive parent; being a young carer; or being a maternal, paternal or double orphan, in five rounds (1998–2011) of a general population survey from eastern Zimbabwe. The fifth survey round (2009–2011) included data on children aged 6–17, which were analysed for the impacts of the above risk factors on regular attendance in primary and secondary schools and being in the correct grade-for-age. For data pooled over all rounds, being HIV-positive had no association with primary school completion, “O” level passes, or being in the correct grade-for-age in adolescents aged 16–17 years. Additionally, HIV status had no significant association with any education outcomes in children aged 6–17 surveyed in 2009–2011. In 2009–2011, being a young carer was associated with lower attendance in secondary school (69% vs. 85%, AOR: 0.44; p = 0.02), whilst being a maternal (75% vs. 83%, AOR: 0.67; p < 0.01), paternal (76% vs. 83%, AOR: 0.67; p = 0.02) or double (75% vs. 83%, AOR: 0.68; p = 0.02) orphan was associated with decreased odds of being in the correct grade-for-age. All forms of orphanhood also significantly decreased the odds of primary school completion in youths surveyed from 1998 to 2011 (all p < 0.01). We found no evidence that HIV status affects education but further evidence that orphans do experience worse education outcomes than other children. Combination approaches that provide incentives for children to attend school and equip schools with tools to support vulnerable children may be most effective in improving education outcomes and should be developed and evaluated.

The human resource implications of improving financial risk protection for mothers and newborns in Zimbabwe

Background

A paradigm shift in global health policy on user fees has been evident in the last decade with a growing consensus that user fees undermine equitable access to essential health care in many low and middle income countries. Changes to fees have major implications for human resources for health (HRH), though the linkages are rarely explicitly examined. This study aimed to examine the inter-linkages in Zimbabwe in order to generate lessons for HRH and fee policies, with particular respect to reproductive, maternal and newborn health (RMNH).

Methods

The study used secondary data and small-scale qualitative fieldwork (key informant interview and focus group discussions) at national level and in one district in 2011.

Results

The past decades have seen a shift in the burden of payments onto households. Implementation of the complex rules on exemptions is patchy and confused. RMNH services are seen as hard for families to afford, even in the absence of complications. Human resources are constrained in managing current demand and any growth in demand by high external and internal migration, and low remuneration, amongst other factors. We find that nurses and midwives are evenly distributed across the country (at least in the public sector), though doctors are not. This means that for four provinces, there are not enough doctors to provide more complex care, and only three provinces could provide cover in the event of all deliveries taking place in facilities.

Conclusions

This analysis suggests that there is a strong case for reducing the financial burden on clients of RMNH services and also a pressing need to improve the terms and conditions of key health staff. Numbers need to grow, and distribution is also a challenge, suggesting the need for differentiated policies in relation to rural areas, especially for doctors and specialists. The management of user fees should also be reviewed, particularly for non-Ministry facilities, which do not retain their revenues, and receive limited investment in return from the municipalities and district councils. Overall public investment in health needs to grow.

Social acceptability and perceived impact of a community-led cash transfer programme in Zimbabwe

Background

Cash transfer programmes are increasingly recognised as promising and scalable interventions that can promote the health and development of children. However, concerns have been raised about the potential for cash transfers to contribute to social division, jealousy and conflict at a community level. Against this background, and in our interest to promote community participation in cash transfer programmes, we examine local perceptions of a community-led cash transfer programme in Eastern Zimbabwe.

Methods

We collected and analysed data from 35 individual interviews and three focus group discussions, involving 24 key informants (community committee members and programme implementers), 24 cash transfer beneficiaries, of which four were youth, and 14 non-beneficiaries. Transcripts were subjected to thematic analysis and coding to generate concepts.

Results

Study participants described the programme as participatory, fair and transparent – reducing the likelihood of jealousy. The programme was perceived to have had a substantial impact on children’s health and education, primarily through aiding parents and guardians to better cater for their children’s needs. Moreover, participants alluded to the potential of the programme to facilitate more transformational change, for example by enabling families to invest money in assets and income generating activities and by promoting a community-wide sense of responsibility for the support of orphaned and vulnerable children.

Conclusion

Community participation, combined with the perceived impact of the cash transfer programme, led community members to speak enthusiastically about the programme. We conclude that community-led cash transfer programmes have the potential to open up for possibilities of participation and community agency that enable social acceptability and limit social divisiveness.

Burden of HIV among primary school children and feasibility of primary school-linked HIV testing in Harare, Zimbabwe: a mixed methods study

Population-based surveys in Southern Africa suggest a substantial burden of undiagnosed HIV-infected long-term survivors of mother-to-child transmission. We conducted an HIV prevalence survey of primary school pupils in Harare, Zimbabwe, and evaluated school-linked HIV counselling and testing (HCT) for pupils, their families and schoolteachers. Population-weighted cluster sampling was used to select six primary schools. Randomly selected class-grade pupils underwent anonymous HIV testing, with concurrent school-linked family HCT offered during the survey. Focus group discussions and interviews were conducted with pupils, parents/ guardians, counsellors, and schoolteachers. About 4386 (73%) pupils provided specimens for anonymous HIV testing. Median age was 9 years (IQR 8–11), and 54% were female. HIV prevalence was 2.7% (95% CI: 2.2–3.1) with no difference by gender. HIV infection was significantly associated with orphanhood, stunting, wasting, and being one or more class grades behind in school due to illness (p <0.001). After adjusting for covariates, orphanhood and stunting remained significantly associated with being HIV positive (p <0.001). Uptake of diagnostic HIV testing by pupils was low with only 47/4386 (1%) pupils undergoing HCT. The HIV prevalence among children under 15 years who underwent HIV testing was 6.8%. The main barrier to HIV testing was parents’ fear of their children experiencing stigma and of unmasking their own HIV status should the child test HIV positive. Most guardians believed that a child's HIV-positive result should not be disclosed and the child could take HIV treatment without knowing the reason. Increased recognition of the high burden of undiagnosed HIV infection in children is needed. Despite awareness of the benefits of HIV testing, HIV-related stigma still dominates parents/guardians' psychological landscape. There is need for comprehensive information and support for families to engage with HIV testing services.

Cardiac disease in adolescents with delayed diagnosis of vertically acquired HIV infection

BACKGROUND

At least one-third of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected infants survive to adolescence even without antiretroviral therapy (ART), but are at high risk of complications including cardiac disease. We investigated the characteristics of cardiac disease among adolescents with HIV infection diagnosed in late childhood who were receiving ambulatory HIV care in Harare, Zimbabwe.

METHODS

Consecutive adolescents with vertically acquired HIV attending 2 HIV outpatient treatment clinics were studied. Assessment included clinical history and examination, and 2-dimensional, M-mode, pulsed- and continuous-wave Doppler echocardiography.

RESULTS

Of 110 participants (47% male; median age, 15 years; interquartile range, 12-17 years), 78 (71%) were taking ART. Exertional dyspnea, chest pain, palpitations, and ankle swelling were reported by 47 (43%), 43 (39%), 10 (9%), and 7 (6%), respectively. The New York Heart Association score was ≥ 2 in 41 participants (37%). Echocardiography showed that 74 participants (67%) had left ventricular (LV; septal and/or free wall) hypertrophy and 27 (24%) had evidence of impaired LV relaxation or restrictive LV physiology. The estimated pulmonary artery systolic pressure (ePASP) was >30 mm Hg in 4 participants (3.6%); of these 2 also had right ventricular (RV) dilatation. Another 32 participants (29%), without elevated ePASP, had isolated RV dilatation.

CONCLUSIONS

A significant burden of cardiac disease was seen among adolescents with vertically acquired HIV infection. More than half were asymptomatic yet had significant echocardiographic abnormalities. These findings highlight the need to screen this population in order to better define the geography, natural history, etiopathogenic mechanisms, and management (including the timing and choice of optimal therapeutic ART and cardiac drug interventions) to prevent development and/or progression of HIV-associated cardiac disease.

Acquired epidermodysplasia verruciformis due to multiple and unusual HPV infection among vertically-infected, HIV-positive adolescents in Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

We have previously described the presentation of epidermodysplasia verruciformis (EV)-like eruptions in almost a quarter of hospitalized adolescents with vertically-acquired human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in Harare, Zimbabwe, a region with a high prevalence of HIV infection.

METHODS

We performed a clinical case note review and skin biopsy from affected sites in 4 HIV-infected adolescents with EV-like lesions in Harare. Biopsies were processed for histology and for human papillomavirus (HPV) typing.

RESULTS

All patients had long-standing skin lesions that pre-dated the diagnosis of HIV by several years. The histology of skin biopsies from all patients was consistent with EV. In each biopsy, EV-associated β-HPV type 5 was identified (additionally, type 19 was found in 1 biopsy). Cutaneous wart-associated HPV types 1 and 2 were detected in all biopsies, together with genital lesion-associated HPV types 6, 16, and 52, (as well as ≥3 other genital lesion-associated HPV types). Despite immune reconstitution with combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), there was no improvement in EV-like lesions in any patient.

CONCLUSIONS

EV is a disfiguring and potentially stigmatizing condition among this patient group and is difficult to treat; cART appears to have no impact on the progression of skin disease. Among adolescents with longstanding HIV-induced immunosuppression and with high levels of sun exposure, close dermatological surveillance for potential skin malignancy is required.

Chronic lung disease in adolescents with delayed diagnosis of vertically acquired HIV infection

A high burden of chronic lung disease (CLD) was found among 116 consecutive adolescents with vertically acquired human immunodeficiency virus in Zimbabwe. The main cause of HIV-associated CLD appears to be obliterative bronchiolitis, which has not previously been recognized among this patient group.

Background. Long-term survivors of vertically acquired human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection are reaching adolescence in large numbers in Africa and are at high risk of delayed diagnosis and chronic complications of untreated HIV infection. Chronic respiratory symptoms are more common than would be anticipated based on the HIV literature.

Methods. Consecutive adolescents with presumed vertically acquired HIV attending 2 HIV care clinics in Harare, Zimbabwe, were recruited and assessed with clinical history and examination, CD4 count, pulmonary function tests, Doppler echocardiography, and chest radiography (CXR). Those with suspected nontuberculous chronic lung disease (CLD) were scanned using high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT).

Results. Of 116 participants (43% male; mean age, 14 ± 2.6 years, mean age at HIV diagnosis, 12 years), 69% were receiving antiretroviral therapy. Chronic cough and reduced exercise tolerance were reported by 66% and 21% of participants, respectively; 41% reported multiple respiratory tract infections in the previous year, and 10% were clubbed. More than 40% had hypoxemia at rest (13%) or on exercise (29%), with pulmonary hypertension (mean pulmonary artery pressure >25 mm Hg) in 7%. Forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV₁) was <80% predicted in 45%, and 47% had subtle CXR abnormalities. The predominant HRCT pattern was decreased attenuation as part of a mosaic attenuation pattern (31 of 56 [55%]), consistent with small airway disease and associated with bronchiectasis (Spearman correlation coefficient (r² = 0.8) and reduced FEV₁ (r² = −0.26).

Conclusions. Long-term survivors of vertically acquired HIV in Africa are at high risk of a previously undescribed small airway disease, with >40% of unselected adolescent clinic attendees meeting criteria for severe hypoxic CLD. This condition is not obvious at rest. Etiology, prognosis, and response to treatment are currently unknown.

Malaria epidemiology and control in Southern Africa

The burden of malaria has decreased dramatically within the past several years in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, following the scale-up of interventions supported by the Roll Back Malaria Partnership, the President's Malaria Initiative and other partners. It is important to appreciate that the reductions in malaria have not been uniform between and within countries, with some areas experiencing resurgence instead. Furthermore, while interventions have greatly reduced the burden of malaria in many countries, it is also recognized that the malaria decline pre-dated widespread intervention efforts, at least in some cases where data are available. This raises more questions as what other factors may have been contributing to the reduction in malaria transmission and to what extent. The International Center of Excellence for Malaria Research (ICEMR) in Southern Africa aims to better understand the underlying malaria epidemiology, vector ecology and parasite genomics using three contrasting settings of malaria transmission in Zambia and Zimbabwe: an area of successful malaria control, an area of resurgent malaria and an area where interventions have not been effective. The Southern Africa ICEMR will capitalize on the opportunity to investigate the complexities of malaria transmission while adapting to intervention and establish the evidence-base to guide effective and sustainable malaria intervention strategies. Key approaches to attain this goal for the region will include close collaboration with national malaria control programs and contribution to capacity building at the individual, institutional and national levels.

A primary care level algorithm for identifying HIV-infected adolescents in populations at high risk through mother-to-child transmission

Objective

To present an algorithm for primary-care health workers for identifying HIV-infected adolescents in populations at high risk through mother-to-child transmission.

Methods

Five hundred and six adolescent (10–18 years) attendees to two primary care clinics in Harare, Zimbabwe, were recruited. A randomly extracted ‘training’ data set (n = 251) was used to generate an algorithm using variables identified as associated with HIV through multivariable logistic regression. Performance characteristics of the algorithm were evaluated in the remaining (‘test’) records (n = 255) at different HIV prevalence rates.

Results

HIV prevalence was 17%, and infection was independently associated with client-reported orphanhood, past hospitalization, skin problems, presenting with sexually transmitted infection and poor functional ability. Classifying adolescents as requiring HIV testing if they reported >1 of these five criteria had 74% sensitivity and 80% specificity for HIV, with the algorithm correctly predicting the HIV status of 79% of participants. In low-HIV-prevalence settings (<2%), the algorithm would have a high negative predictive value (≥99.5%) and result in an estimated 60% decrease in the number of people needing to test to identify one HIV-infected individual, compared with universal testing.

Conclusions

Our simple algorithm can identify which individuals are likely to be HIV infected with sufficient accuracy to provide a screening tool for use in settings not already implementing universal testing policies among this age-group, for example immigrants to low-HIV-prevalence countries.

Undiagnosed HIV infection among adolescents seeking primary health care in Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

Mother-to-child transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection was extremely common in southern Africa during the 1990s, and a substantial minority of infected infants have survived to reach adolescence undiagnosed. Studies have shown a high prevalence of HIV infection in hospitalized adolescents who have features associated with long-standing HIV infection, including stunting and frequent minor illnesses. We therefore investigated the epidemiology of HIV infection at the primary care level.

METHODS

Adolescents (aged 10-18 years) attending two primary care clinics underwent HIV and Herpes simplex virus-2 (HSV-2) serological testing, clinical examination, and anthropometry. All were offered routine HIV counseling and testing. Patients attending for acute primary care (APC) who were HIV infected were asked about their risk factors.

RESULTS

Five hundred ninety-four participants were systematically recruited (97% participation), of whom 88 (15%) were attending for antenatal care. HIV infection prevalence was higher among APC attendees than among antenatal care attendees (17% vs 6%; P < .007), but for the prevalence of HSV-2 infection, a marker of sexually acquired HIV, the converse was true (4% vs 14%; P < .002). Seventy (81%) of 86 HIV-positive APC attendees were previously undiagnosed. They had a broad range of presenting complaints, with a median CD4 cell count of 329 cells/microL (interquartile range, 176-485 cells/microL) and a high prevalence of stunting, compared with the corresponding prevalence among HIV-negative attendees (40% vs 12%; P < .001). Maternal transmission was considered to be likely by 69 (80%) of the 86 HIV-positive APC attendees, only one of whom was HSV-2 positive.

CONCLUSIONS

Unrecognized HIV infection was a common cause of primary care attendance. Routine HIV counseling and testing implemented at the primary care level may provide a simple and effective way of identifying older long-term survivors of mother-to-child transmission before the onset of severe immunosuppression and irreversible complications.

Chronic cough and its association with TB-HIV co-infection: factors affecting help-seeking behaviour in Harare, Zimbabwe

OBJECTIVE

To qualitatively investigate reasons why individuals who reported chronic cough of 2 weeks or more in a cross-sectional prevalence survey had not accessed community-based outreach or other diagnostic services.

METHODS

This study was nested into a cluster randomised trial comparing two methods of providing community-level diagnosis for tuberculosis (TB). Twenty individuals (12 males) with previously unreported chronic cough, because of undiagnosed pulmonary TB in five cases, were interviewed. An additional 20 individuals who had attended clinical services participated in two focus group discussions. Data were coded and analysed using grounded theory principles.

RESULTS

Participants described cough, and specifically their own symptoms, as having many possible causes other than TB. People avoided care-seeking for cough to avoid a possible diagnosis of 'TB2' (HIV-related TB). Waiting in the hope of spontaneous resolution was common. Delaying treatment-seeking was also a strategy for deferring costs. Another common theme was negative perceptions of health facilities, as places where people anticipated discourteous treatment and being put at risk of contracting TB and HIV. Expectations that they should be in control of their own health further contributed to delayed health-seeking in men.

CONCLUSIONS

Some individuals remain reluctant to be investigated for chronic cough even when provided with community-level services, with fear of the connotations of being diagnosed with TB and an aversion to contact with health providers among the dominant themes. In men, deferred acceptance that a chronic cough should be investigated may be related to concepts of masculinity, especially when symptoms are mild.