Model-based estimates of chikungunya epidemiological parameters and outbreak risk from varied data types

Assessing the factors responsible for differences in outbreak severity for the same pathogen is a challenging task, since outbreak data are often incomplete and may vary in type across outbreaks (e.g., daily case counts, serology, cases per household). We propose that outbreaks described with varied data types can be directly compared by using those data to estimate a common set of epidemiological parameters. To demonstrate this for chikungunya virus (CHIKV), we developed a realistic model of CHIKV transmission, along with a Bayesian inference method that accommodates any type of outbreak data that can be simulated. The inference method makes use of the fact that all data types arise from the same transmission process, which is simulated by the model. We applied these tools to data from three real-world outbreaks of CHIKV in Italy, Cambodia, and Bangladesh to estimate nine model parameters. We found that these populations differed in several parameters, including pre-existing immunity and house-to-house differences in mosquito activity. These differences resulted in posterior predictions of local CHIKV transmission risk that varied nearly fourfold: 16% in Italy, 28% in Cambodia, and 62% in Bangladesh. Our inference method and model can be applied to improve understanding of the epidemiology of CHIKV and other pathogens for which outbreaks are described with varied data types.

Using the Health Belief Model to Predict Pre-Travel Health Decisions among U.S.-Based Travelers

International travelers are at increased risk of infectious disease, but almost half of Americans traveling to lower- and middle-income countries seek no health information before traveling. The Health Belief Model (HBM) can help evaluate decisions by categorizing behaviors into five categories: susceptibility, severity, benefits, barriers, and self-efficacy. This study sought to use the HBM to elucidate what may influence an individual to make certain pre-travel health decisions. We surveyed 604 participants who had recently traveled to an at-risk country. Participants were subset into nested groups: full population, sought any health information, and visited a clinic or health care provider (HCP). Survey questions were categorized according to the HBM, assembled into a priori models, and analyzed in each group using logistic regression with three main outcome variables: "Sought any pre-travel health information," "Visited clinic or HCP," and "Received vaccine." Of the 604 participants, 333 (55%) sought any health information, 245 (41% of total) reported visiting an HCP, and 166 (27% of total) reported receiving a vaccine before traveling. Models containing variables from the susceptibility and benefits categories were most successful in predicting all three outcomes; susceptibility was a more relevant consideration in information seeking and seeing a provider than vaccination, whereas benefits was relevant for all outcomes. Our results emphasize the importance of an individual's perceived susceptibility to disease and perceived benefit of interventions in predicting pre-travel health behaviors. Understanding this interaction can help shape how HCPs and public health entities can encourage health care seeking and vaccine uptake in travelers.

Inapparent infections shape the transmission heterogeneity of dengue

Transmission heterogeneity, whereby a disproportionate fraction of pathogen transmission events result from a small number of individuals or geographic locations, is an inherent property of many, if not most, infectious disease systems. For vector-borne diseases, transmission heterogeneity is inferred from the distribution of the number of vectors per host, which could lead to significant bias in situations where vector abundance and transmission risk at the household do not correlate, as is the case with dengue virus (DENV). We used data from a contact tracing study to quantify the distribution of DENV acute infections within human activity spaces (AS), the collection of residential locations an individual routinely visits, and quantified measures of virus transmission heterogeneity from two consecutive dengue outbreaks (DENV-4 and DENV-2) that occurred in the city of Iquitos, Peru. Negative-binomial distributions and Pareto fractions showed evidence of strong overdispersion in the number of DENV infections by AS and identified super-spreading units (SSUs): i.e. AS where most infections occurred. Approximately 8% of AS were identified as SSUs, contributing to more than 50% of DENV infections. SSU occurrence was associated more with DENV-2 infection than with DENV-4, a predominance of inapparent infections (74% of all infections), households with high Aedes aegypti mosquito abundance, and high host susceptibility to the circulating DENV serotype. Marked heterogeneity in dengue case distribution, and the role of inapparent infections in defining it, highlight major challenges faced by reactive interventions if those transmission units contributing the most to transmission are not identified, prioritized, and effectively treated.

Quantifying heterogeneities in arbovirus transmission: Description of the rationale and methodology for a prospective longitudinal study of dengue and Zika virus transmission in Iquitos, Peru (2014-2019)

Current knowledge of dengue virus (DENV) transmission provides only a partial understanding of a complex and dynamic system yielding a public health track record that has more failures than successes. An important part of the problem is that the foundation for contemporary interventions includes a series of longstanding, but untested, assumptions based on a relatively small portion of the human population; i.e., people who are convenient to study because they manifest clinically apparent disease. Approaching dengue from the perspective of people with overt illness has produced an extensive body of useful literature. It has not, however, fully embraced heterogeneities in virus transmission dynamics that are increasingly recognized as key information still missing in the struggle to control the most important insect-transmitted viral infection of humans. Only in the last 20 years have there been significant efforts to carry out comprehensive longitudinal dengue studies. This manuscript provides the rationale and comprehensive, integrated description of the methodology for a five-year longitudinal cohort study based in the tropical city of Iquitos, in the heart of the Peruvian Amazon. Primary data collection for this study was completed in 2019. Although some manuscripts have been published to date, our principal objective here is to support subsequent publications by describing in detail the structure, methodology, and significance of a specific research program. Our project was designed to study people across the entire continuum of disease, with the ultimate goal of quantifying heterogeneities in human variables that affect DENV transmission dynamics and prevention. Because our study design is applicable to other Aedes transmitted viruses, we used it to gain insights into Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission when during the project period ZIKV was introduced and circulated in Iquitos. Our prospective contact cluster investigation design was initiated by detecttion of a person with a symptomatic DENV infection and then followed that person's immediate contacts. This allowed us to monitor individuals at high risk of DENV infection, including people with clinically inapparent and mild infections that are otherwise difficult to detect. We aimed to fill knowledge gaps by defining the contribution to DENV transmission dynamics of (1) the understudied majority of DENV-infected people with inapparent and mild infections and (2) epidemiological, entomological, and socio-behavioral sources of heterogeneity. By accounting for factors underlying variation in each person's contribution to transmission we sought to better determine the type and extent of effort needed to better prevent virus transmission and disease.

Surveying Health-Related Knowledge, Attitudes, and Behaviors of U.S.-Based Residents Traveling Internationally to Visit Friends and Relatives

U.S. residents traveling internationally to regions with increased risk of infectious diseases infrequently seek pretravel health care. First- and second-generation immigrants traveling to their countries of origin and visiting friends and relatives (VFRs) have increased risk of certain infectious diseases and are more likely to participate in high-risk activities. In an online survey of 994 U.S. residents with two foreign-born parents who went on at least one international trip to an at-risk country (defined as having a typhoid vaccine recommendation) in the prior 3 years, respondents were questioned about their international travel over the previous 3 years and their knowledge and individual risk of disease. Participants reported infrequently seeking pretravel health information (32% of trips) or consulting a healthcare provider before their trips (15% of trips). Participants reported seeking pretravel health information less often for VFR trips home (22%) than to other regions (30%). Perceived risk of disease was directly associated with seeking pretravel health information (82% for the highest and 13% for the lowest perceived risk), consulting a healthcare provider (55% for the highest and 5% for the lowest perceived risk), and reporting travel-associated illness (54% for the highest and 10% for the lowest perceived risk). Respondents were generally knowledgeable about cholera, hepatitis B, malaria, and rabies but had low knowledge of hepatitis A and typhoid. Understanding where VFR travelers lack understanding of disease transmission and which travelers are ideal targets for interventions has the potential to shape physician recommendations and public health strategy in this vulnerable population.

The genetic structure of Aedes aegypti populations is driven by boat traffic in the Peruvian Amazon

In the Americas, as in much of the rest of the world, the dengue virus vector Aedes aegypti is found in close association with human habitations, often leading to high population densities of mosquitoes in urban settings. In the Peruvian Amazon, this vector has been expanding to rural communities over the last 10–15 years, but to date, the population genetic structure of Ae. aegypti in this region has not been characterized. To investigate the relationship between Ae. aegypti gene flow and human transportation networks, we characterized mosquito population structure using a panel of 8 microsatellite markers and linked results to various potential mechanisms for long-distance dispersal. Adult and immature Ae. aegypti (>20 individuals per site) were collected from Iquitos city and from six neighboring riverine communities, i.e., Nauta, Indiana, Mazan, Barrio Florida, Tamshiaco, and Aucayo. F_ST statistics indicate significant, but low to moderate differentiation for the majority of study site pairs. Population structure of Ae. aegypti is not correlated with the geographic distance between towns, suggesting that human transportation networks provide a reasonable explanation for the high levels of population mixing. Our results indicate that Ae. aegypti gene flow among sub-populations is greatest between locations with heavy boat traffic, such as Iquitos-Tamshiaco and Iquitos-Indiana-Mazan, and lowest between locations with little or no boat/road traffic between them such as Barrio Florida-Iquitos. Bayesian clustering analysis showed ancestral admixture among three genetic clusters; no single cluster was exclusive to any site. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that human transportation networks, particularly riverways, are responsible for the geographic spread of Ae. aegypti in the Peruvian Amazon. Our findings are applicable to other regions of the world characterized by networks of urban islands connected by fluvial transport routes.

Aedes aegypti, the primary mosquito vector of dengue, is a highly invasive species that is expanding from urban to peri-urban and rural areas throughout the Americas. Previous studies documented the role of human transportation networks in Ae. aegypti long-distance dispersal. We examined whether patterns of Ae. aegypti gene flow are consistent with this observation. Mosquitoes were collected from seven locations, including the large Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru, and six neighboring rural communities, and their genetic relatedness was compared using 8 microsatellite markers. Our results showed ample gene flow among mosquito populations in this region, with greater gene flow observed among sites that are connected by fluvial routes. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that human transportation networks, especially via boats, are a primary contributing factor to the spread of Ae. aegypti in the Peruvian Amazon.

Estimating the impact of city-wide Aedes aegypti population control: An observational study in Iquitos, Peru

During the last 50 years, the geographic range of the mosquito Aedes aegypti has increased dramatically, in parallel with a sharp increase in the disease burden from the viruses it transmits, including Zika, chikungunya, and dengue. There is a growing consensus that vector control is essential to prevent Aedes-borne diseases, even as effective vaccines become available. What remains unclear is how effective vector control is across broad operational scales because the data and the analytical tools necessary to isolate the effect of vector-oriented interventions have not been available. We developed a statistical framework to model Ae. aegypti abundance over space and time and applied it to explore the impact of citywide vector control conducted by the Ministry of Health (MoH) in Iquitos, Peru, over a 12-year period. Citywide interventions involved multiple rounds of intradomicile insecticide space spray over large portions of urban Iquitos (up to 40% of all residences) in response to dengue outbreaks. Our model captured significant levels of spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal variation in Ae. aegypti abundance within and between years and across the city. We estimated the shape of the relationship between the coverage of neighborhood-level vector control and reductions in female Ae. aegypti abundance; i.e., the dose-response curve. The dose-response curve, with its associated uncertainties, can be used to gauge the necessary spraying effort required to achieve a desired effect and is a critical tool currently absent from vector control programs. We found that with complete neighborhood coverage MoH intra-domicile space spray would decrease Ae. aegypti abundance on average by 67% in the treated neighborhood. Our framework can be directly translated to other interventions in other locations with geolocated mosquito abundance data. Results from our analysis can be used to inform future vector-control applications in Ae. aegypti endemic areas globally.

Despite the growing threat of arboviruses, there is a dearth of ‘best practices’ for the primary vector control tools used in the field. In the absence of cluster randomized control trials, evidence on the utility (or lack thereof) of vector control interventions must be gleaned from ongoing control programs. Motivated by 12 years of household-level Ae. aegypti abundance surveys and neighborhood-level space-spray campaign data from Iquitos, Peru, we developed a new framework to model mosquito abundance. In spite of significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity, we identified a statistically significant and practically important impact of the local Ministry of Health space-spray campaign, specifically, a reduction of mosquito abundance of 67% when coverage was optimal. Our framework can be directly applied to other locations with geolocated mosquito abundance data and our findings can be used to both optimize resources within Iquitos as well as inform future vector-control interventions in Ae. aegypti endemic areas globally.

An agent-based model of dengue virus transmission shows how uncertainty about breakthrough infections influences vaccination impact projections

Prophylactic vaccination is a powerful tool for reducing the burden of infectious diseases, due to a combination of direct protection of vaccinees and indirect protection of others via herd immunity. Computational models play an important role in devising strategies for vaccination by making projections of its impacts on public health. Such projections are subject to uncertainty about numerous factors, however. For example, many vaccine efficacy trials focus on measuring protection against disease rather than protection against infection, leaving the extent of breakthrough infections (i.e., disease ameliorated but infection unimpeded) among vaccinees unknown. Our goal in this study was to quantify the extent to which uncertainty about breakthrough infections results in uncertainty about vaccination impact, with a focus on vaccines for dengue. To realistically account for the many forms of heterogeneity in dengue virus (DENV) transmission, which could have implications for the dynamics of indirect protection, we used a stochastic, agent-based model for DENV transmission informed by more than a decade of empirical studies in the city of Iquitos, Peru. Following 20 years of routine vaccination of nine-year-old children at 80% coverage, projections of the proportion of disease episodes averted varied by a factor of 1.76 (95% CI: 1.54-2.06) across the range of uncertainty about breakthrough infections. This was equivalent to the range of vaccination impact projected across a range of uncertainty about vaccine efficacy of 0.268 (95% CI: 0.210-0.329). Until uncertainty about breakthrough infections can be addressed empirically, our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for it in models of vaccination impact.

Calling in sick: impacts of fever on intra-urban human mobility

Pathogens inflict a wide variety of disease manifestations on their hosts, yet the impacts of disease on the behaviour of infected hosts are rarely studied empirically and are seldom accounted for in mathematical models of transmission dynamics. We explored the potential impacts of one of the most common disease manifestations, fever, on a key determinant of pathogen transmission, host mobility, in residents of the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru. We did so by comparing two groups of febrile individuals (dengue-positive and dengue-negative) with an afebrile control group. A retrospective, semi-structured interview allowed us to quantify multiple aspects of mobility during the two-week period preceding each interview. We fitted nested models of each aspect of mobility to data from interviews and compared models using likelihood ratio tests to determine whether there were statistically distinguishable differences in mobility attributable to fever or its aetiology. Compared with afebrile individuals, febrile study participants spent more time at home, visited fewer locations, and, in some cases, visited locations closer to home and spent less time at certain types of locations. These multifaceted impacts are consistent with the possibility that disease-mediated changes in host mobility generate dynamic and complex changes in host contact network structure.

The relationship between entomological indicators of Aedes aegypti abundance and dengue virus infection

Routine entomological monitoring data are used to quantify the abundance of Ae. aegypti. The public health utility of these indicators is based on the assumption that greater mosquito abundance increases the risk of human DENV transmission, and therefore reducing exposure to the vector decreases incidence of infection. Entomological survey data from two longitudinal cohort studies in Iquitos, Peru, linked with 8,153 paired serological samples taken approximately six months apart were analyzed. Indicators of Ae. aegypti density were calculated from cross-sectional and longitudinal entomological data collected over a 12-month period for larval, pupal and adult Ae. aegypti. Log binomial models were used to estimate risk ratios (RR) to measure the association between Ae. aegypti abundance and the six-month risk of DENV seroconversion. RRs estimated using cross-sectional entomological data were compared to RRs estimated using longitudinal data. Higher cross-sectional Ae. aegypti densities were not associated with an increased risk of DENV seroconversion. Use of longitudinal entomological data resulted in RRs ranging from 1.01 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.02) to 1.30 (95% CI: 1.17, 1.46) for adult stage density estimates and RRs ranging from 1.21 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.37) to 1.75 (95% CI: 1.23, 2.5) for categorical immature indices. Ae. aegypti densities calculated from longitudinal entomological data were associated with DENV seroconversion, whereas those measured cross-sectionally were not. Ae. aegypti indicators calculated from cross-sectional surveillance, as is common practice, have limited public health utility in detecting areas or populations at high risk of DENV infection.

Theory and data for simulating fine-scale human movement in an urban environment

Individual-based models of infectious disease transmission depend on accurate quantification of fine-scale patterns of human movement. Existing models of movement either pertain to overly coarse scales, simulate some aspects of movement but not others, or were designed specifically for populations in developed countries. Here, we propose a generalizable framework for simulating the locations that an individual visits, time allocation across those locations, and population-level variation therein. As a case study, we fit alternative models for each of five aspects of movement (number, distance from home and types of locations visited; frequency and duration of visits) to interview data from 157 residents of the city of Iquitos, Peru. Comparison of alternative models showed that location type and distance from home were significant determinants of the locations that individuals visited and how much time they spent there. We also found that for most locations, residents of two neighbourhoods displayed indistinguishable preferences for visiting locations at various distances, despite differing distributions of locations around those neighbourhoods. Finally, simulated patterns of time allocation matched the interview data in a number of ways, suggesting that our framework constitutes a sound basis for simulating fine-scale movement and for investigating factors that influence it.

Shifting patterns of Aedes aegypti fine scale spatial clustering in Iquitos, Peru

Background

Empiric evidence shows that Aedes aegypti abundance is spatially heterogeneous and that some areas and larval habitats produce more mosquitoes than others. There is a knowledge gap, however, with regards to the temporal persistence of such Ae. aegypti abundance hotspots. In this study, we used a longitudinal entomologic dataset from the city of Iquitos, Peru, to (1) quantify the spatial clustering patterns of adult Ae. aegypti and pupae counts per house, (2) determine overlap between clusters, (3) quantify the temporal stability of clusters over nine entomologic surveys spaced four months apart, and (4) quantify the extent of clustering at the household and neighborhood levels.

Methodologies/Principal Findings

Data from 13,662 household entomological visits performed in two Iquitos neighborhoods differing in Ae. aegypti abundance and dengue virus transmission was analyzed using global and local spatial statistics. The location and extent of Ae. aegypti pupae and adult hotspots (i.e., small groups of houses with significantly [p<0.05] high mosquito abundance) were calculated for each of the 9 entomologic surveys. The extent of clustering was used to quantify the probability of finding spatially correlated populations. Our analyses indicate that Ae. aegypti distribution was highly focal (most clusters do not extend beyond 30 meters) and that hotspots of high vector abundance were common on every survey date, but they were temporally unstable over the period of study.

Conclusions/Significance

Our findings have implications for understanding Ae. aegypti distribution and for the design of surveillance and control activities relying on household-level data. In settings like Iquitos, where there is a relatively low percentage of Ae. aegypti in permanent water-holding containers, identifying and targeting key premises will be significantly challenged by shifting hotspots of Ae. aegypti infestation. Focusing efforts in large geographic areas with historically high levels of transmission may be more effective than targeting Ae. aegypti hotspots.

We carried out a comprehensive study of the long-term trends in household-level Aedes aegypti spatial distribution within a well-defined urban area endemic for dengue virus. By using a dataset consisting of 13,662 household entomological visits performed in two neighborhoods in Iquitos, Peru, we quantified the ∼3 year spatial clustering patterns of Ae. aegypti among houses and the temporal persistence of vector abundance hotspots. Our results provide strong support for the conclusion that Ae. aegypti distribution is highly focal and that hotspots of high vector abundance at the level of small groups of houses are common, but temporally unstable. Results from our study have implications for understanding the spatio-temporal patterns of Ae. aegypti abundance and for the design of surveillance and control activities that are based on household-level entomological data.

Long-term and seasonal dynamics of dengue in Iquitos, Peru

Introduction

Long-term disease surveillance data provide a basis for studying drivers of pathogen transmission dynamics. Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease caused by four distinct, but related, viruses (DENV-1-4) that potentially affect over half the world's population. Dengue incidence varies seasonally and on longer time scales, presumably driven by the interaction of climate and host susceptibility. Precise understanding of dengue dynamics is constrained, however, by the relative paucity of laboratory-confirmed longitudinal data.

Methods

We studied 10 years (2000–2010) of laboratory-confirmed, clinic-based surveillance data collected in Iquitos, Peru. We characterized inter and intra-annual patterns of dengue dynamics on a weekly time scale using wavelet analysis. We explored the relationships of case counts to climatic variables with cross-correlation maps on annual and trimester bases.

Findings

Transmission was dominated by single serotypes, first DENV-3 (2001–2007) then DENV-4 (2008–2010). After 2003, incidence fluctuated inter-annually with outbreaks usually occurring between October and April. We detected a strong positive autocorrelation in case counts at a lag of ∼70 weeks, indicating a shift in the timing of peak incidence year-to-year. All climatic variables showed modest seasonality and correlated weakly with the number of reported dengue cases across a range of time lags. Cases were reduced after citywide insecticide fumigation if conducted early in the transmission season.

Conclusions

Dengue case counts peaked seasonally despite limited intra-annual variation in climate conditions. Contrary to expectations for this mosquito-borne disease, no climatic variable considered exhibited a strong relationship with transmission. Vector control operations did, however, appear to have a significant impact on transmission some years. Our results indicate that a complicated interplay of factors underlie DENV transmission in contexts such as Iquitos.

Description of long-term temporal patterns in disease occurrence improves our understanding of pathogen transmission dynamics and facilitates predicting new epidemics. Dengue, the most prevalent mosquito-borne, viral disease of humans, typically varies seasonally and on longer, inter-annual time scales. In most studies of these patterns, however, only a fraction of putative dengue cases are confirmed with laboratory diagnostics. Here we analyzed 10 years of fully confirmed dengue cases reported to a sentinel surveillance system in Iquitos, Peru. We describe the inter and intra-annual patterns of weekly case counts and relate these to climate and local vector control efforts. We show that dengue case counts vary seasonally in Iquitos despite very little variation in key climatic conditions, such as temperature and humidity. Overall, transmission correlated poorly with climate regardless of time lag. In seasons when vector control was conducted early, there was an apparent decline in cases later that season. We speculate that the relationships between climatic conditions and transmission of DENV in Iquitos are complex and non-linear, and that other factors, such as herd immunity, virus diversity, and vector control efforts, play key roles determining the timing and intensity of transmission.

Strengths and weaknesses of Global Positioning System (GPS) data-loggers and semi-structured interviews for capturing fine-scale human mobility: findings from Iquitos, Peru

Quantifying human mobility has significant consequences for studying physical activity, exposure to pathogens, and generating more realistic infectious disease models. Location-aware technologies such as Global Positioning System (GPS)-enabled devices are used increasingly as a gold standard for mobility research. The main goal of this observational study was to compare and contrast the information obtained through GPS and semi-structured interviews (SSI) to assess issues affecting data quality and, ultimately, our ability to measure fine-scale human mobility. A total of 160 individuals, ages 7 to 74, from Iquitos, Peru, were tracked using GPS data-loggers for 14 days and later interviewed using the SSI about places they visited while tracked. A total of 2,047 and 886 places were reported in the SSI and identified by GPS, respectively. Differences in the concordance between methods occurred by location type, distance threshold (within a given radius to be considered a match) selected, GPS data collection frequency (i.e., 30, 90 or 150 seconds) and number of GPS points near the SSI place considered to define a match. Both methods had perfect concordance identifying each participant's house, followed by 80-100% concordance for identifying schools and lodgings, and 50-80% concordance for residences and commercial and religious locations. As the distance threshold selected increased, the concordance between SSI and raw GPS data increased (beyond 20 meters most locations reached their maximum concordance). Processing raw GPS data using a signal-clustering algorithm decreased overall concordance to 14.3%. The most common causes of discordance as described by a sub-sample (n=101) with whom we followed-up were GPS units being accidentally off (30%), forgetting or purposely not taking the units when leaving home (24.8%), possible barriers to the signal (4.7%) and leaving units home to recharge (4.6%). We provide a quantitative assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of both methods for capturing fine-scale human mobility.

Direct feeding on dengue patients yields new insights into human-to-mosquito dengue virus transmission

Evaluation of: Nguyen MN, Duong TH, Trung VT et al. Host and viral features of human dengue cases shape the population of infected and infectious Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110(22), 9072–9077 (2013). Dengue virus (DENV) is a mosquito-borne virus of immense and growing global health importance. Despite decades of research, many fundamental components of DENV biology remain poorly understood. The Nguyen et al. study shines new light on one such component: the relationship between DENV blood viremia and infectiousness to mosquitoes. By directly feeding mosquitoes on infected people, the authors identified the viremia levels required for mosquitoes to become infected with each of the four DENV serotypes. Based on these results, the authors then indicated that ambulatory dengue cases who did not visit a hospital had viremia levels sufficient to infect mosquitoes. In avoiding laboratory surrogates, this study has significantly improved our understanding of DENV with implications for modeling and vaccine development.

Reduced risk of disease during postsecondary dengue virus infections

BACKGROUND

Antibodies induced by infection with any 1 of 4 dengue virus (DENV) serotypes (DENV-1-4) may influence the clinical outcome of subsequent heterologous infections. To quantify potential cross-protective effects, we estimated disease risk as a function of DENV infection, using data from longitudinal studies performed from September 2006 through February 2011 in Iquitos, Peru, during periods of DENV-3 and DENV-4 transmission.

METHODS

DENV infections before and during the study period were determined by analysis of serial serum samples with virus neutralization tests. Third and fourth infections were classified as postsecondary infections. Dengue fever cases were detected by door-to-door surveillance for acute febrile illness.

RESULTS

Among susceptible participants, 39% (420/1077) and 53% (1595/2997) seroconverted to DENV-3 and DENV-4, respectively. Disease was detected in 7% of DENV-3 infections and 10% of DENV-4 infections. Disease during postsecondary infections was reduced by 93% for DENV-3 and 64% for DENV-4, compared with primary and secondary infections. Despite lower disease rates, postsecondary infections constituted a significant proportion of apparent infections (14% [for DENV-3 infections], 45% [for DENV-4 infections]).

CONCLUSIONS

Preexisting heterotypic antibodies markedly reduced but did not eliminate the risk of disease in this study population. These results improve understanding of how preinfection history can be associated with dengue outcomes and DENV transmission dynamics.

Performance of the tourniquet test for diagnosing dengue in Peru

The tourniquet test (TT) is a physical examination maneuver often performed on patients suspected of having dengue. It has been incorporated into dengue diagnostic guidelines and is used in clinical studies. However, little is known about TT performance characteristics in different patient types or epidemiologic conditions. In the dengue-endemic city of Iquitos, Peru, we performed TTs and dengue laboratory assays on 13,548 persons with febrile disease, recruited through either active (n = 1,095) or passive (n = 12,453) surveillance. The sensitivity was 52% and 56%, the specificity was 58% and 68%, the positive predictive value was 45% and 55%, and the negative predictive value was 64% and 69% for persons enrolled in active and passive surveillance, respectively. We demonstrated that the TT was more sensitive identifying dengue disease in women and those of younger age and that sensitivity increased the later a person came to a medical clinic for care.

Using GPS technology to quantify human mobility, dynamic contacts and infectious disease dynamics in a resource-poor urban environment

Empiric quantification of human mobility patterns is paramount for better urban planning, understanding social network structure and responding to infectious disease threats, especially in light of rapid growth in urbanization and globalization. This need is of particular relevance for developing countries, since they host the majority of the global urban population and are disproportionally affected by the burden of disease. We used Global Positioning System (GPS) data-loggers to track the fine-scale (within city) mobility patterns of 582 residents from two neighborhoods from the city of Iquitos, Peru. We used ∼2.3 million GPS data-points to quantify age-specific mobility parameters and dynamic co-location networks among all tracked individuals. Geographic space significantly affected human mobility, giving rise to highly local mobility kernels. Most (∼80%) movements occurred within 1 km of an individual's home. Potential hourly contacts among individuals were highly irregular and temporally unstructured. Only up to 38% of the tracked participants showed a regular and predictable mobility routine, a sharp contrast to the situation in the developed world. As a case study, we quantified the impact of spatially and temporally unstructured routines on the dynamics of transmission of an influenza-like pathogen within an Iquitos neighborhood. Temporally unstructured daily routines (e.g., not dominated by a single location, such as a workplace, where an individual repeatedly spent significant amount of time) increased an epidemic's final size and effective reproduction number by 20% in comparison to scenarios modeling temporally structured contacts. Our findings provide a mechanistic description of the basic rules that shape human mobility within a resource-poor urban center, and contribute to the understanding of the role of fine-scale patterns of individual movement and co-location in infectious disease dynamics. More generally, this study emphasizes the need for careful consideration of human social interactions when designing infectious disease mitigation strategies, particularly within resource-poor urban environments.

House-to-house human movement drives dengue virus transmission

Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease of growing global health importance. Prevention efforts focus on mosquito control, with limited success. New insights into the spatiotemporal drivers of dengue dynamics are needed to design improved disease-prevention strategies. Given the restricted range of movement of the primary mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti, local human movements may be an important driver of dengue virus (DENV) amplification and spread. Using contact-site cluster investigations in a case-control design, we demonstrate that, at an individual level, risk for human infection is defined by visits to places where contact with infected mosquitoes is likely, independent of distance from the home. Our data indicate that house-to-house human movements underlie spatial patterns of DENV incidence, causing marked heterogeneity in transmission rates. At a collective level, transmission appears to be shaped by social connections because routine movements among the same places, such as the homes of family and friends, are often similar for the infected individual and their contacts. Thus, routine, house-to-house human movements do play a key role in spread of this vector-borne pathogen at fine spatial scales. This finding has important implications for dengue prevention, challenging the appropriateness of current approaches to vector control. We argue that reexamination of existing paradigms regarding the spatiotemporal dynamics of DENV and other vector-borne pathogens, especially the importance of human movement, will lead to improvements in disease prevention.

Linking oviposition site choice to offspring fitness in Aedes aegypti: consequences for targeted larval control of dengue vectors

Background

Current Aedes aegypti larval control methods are often insufficient for preventing dengue epidemics. To improve control efficiency and cost-effectiveness, some advocate eliminating or treating only highly productive containers. The population-level outcome of this strategy, however, will depend on details of Ae. aegypti oviposition behavior.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We simultaneously monitored female oviposition and juvenile development in 80 experimental containers located across 20 houses in Iquitos, Peru, to test the hypothesis that Ae. aegypti oviposit preferentially in sites with the greatest potential for maximizing offspring fitness. Females consistently laid more eggs in large vs. small containers (β = 9.18, p<0.001), and in unmanaged vs. manually filled containers (β = 5.33, p<0.001). Using microsatellites to track the development of immature Ae. aegypti, we found a negative correlation between oviposition preference and pupation probability (β = −3.37, p<0.001). Body size of emerging adults was also negatively associated with the preferred oviposition site characteristics of large size (females: β = −0.19, p<0.001; males: β = −0.11, p = 0.002) and non-management (females: β = −0.17, p<0.001; males: β = −0.11, p<0.001). Inside a semi-field enclosure, we simulated a container elimination campaign targeting the most productive oviposition sites. Compared to the two post-intervention trials, egg batches were more clumped during the first pre-intervention trial (β = −0.17, P<0.001), but not the second (β = 0.01, p = 0.900). Overall, when preferred containers were unavailable, the probability that any given container received eggs increased (β = 1.36, p<0.001).

Conclusions/Significance

Ae. aegypti oviposition site choice can contribute to population regulation by limiting the production and size of adults. Targeted larval control strategies may unintentionally lead to dispersion of eggs among suitable, but previously unoccupied or under-utilized containers. We recommend integrating targeted larval control measures with other strategies that leverage selective oviposition behavior, such as luring ovipositing females to gravid traps or egg sinks.

Controlling the mosquito Aedes aegypti, the predominant dengue vector, requires understanding the ecological and behavioral factors that influence population abundance. Females of several mosquito species are able to identify high-quality egg-laying sites, resulting in enhanced offspring development and survival, and ultimately promoting population growth. Here, the authors investigated egg-laying decisions of Ae. aegypti. Paradoxically, they found that larval survival and development were poorest in the containers females most often selected for egg deposition. Thus, egg-laying decisions may contribute to crowding of larvae and play a role in regulating mosquito populations. The authors also tested whether removal of the containers producing the most adult mosquitoes, a World Health Organization-recommended dengue prevention strategy, changes the pattern of how females allocate their eggs. Elimination of the most productive containers led to a more even distribution of eggs in one trial, but not another. These results suggest that behavioral adjustments by egg-laying females may lessen the effectiveness of a common mosquito control tactic. The authors advocate incorporating control strategies that take advantage of the natural egg-laying preferences of this vector species, such as luring egg-laying females to traps or places where their eggs will accumulate, but not develop.

Spatial dimensions of dengue virus transmission across interepidemic and epidemic periods in Iquitos, Peru (1999-2003)

Background

Knowledge of spatial patterns of dengue virus (DENV) infection is important for understanding transmission dynamics and guiding effective disease prevention strategies. Because movement of infected humans and mosquito vectors plays a role in the spread and persistence of virus, spatial dimensions of transmission can range from small household foci to large community clusters. Current understanding is limited because past analyses emphasized clinically apparent illness and did not account for the potentially large proportion of inapparent infections. In this study we analyzed both clinically apparent and overall infections to determine the extent of clustering among human DENV infections.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted spatial analyses at global and local scales, using acute case and seroconversion data from a prospective longitudinal cohort in Iquitos, Peru, from 1999–2003. Our study began during a period of interepidemic DENV-1 and DENV-2 transmission and transitioned to epidemic DENV-3 transmission. Infection status was determined by seroconversion based on plaque neutralization testing of sequential blood samples taken at approximately six-month intervals, with date of infection assigned as the middate between paired samples. Each year was divided into three distinct seasonal periods of DENV transmission. Spatial heterogeneity was detected in baseline seroprevalence for DENV-1 and DENV-2. Cumulative DENV-3 seroprevalence calculated by trimester from 2001–2003 was spatially similar to preexisting DENV-1 and DENV-2 seroprevalence. Global clustering (case-control Ripley's K statistic) appeared at radii of ∼200–800 m. Local analyses (Kuldorf spatial scan statistic) identified eight DENV-1 and 15 DENV-3 clusters from 1999–2003. The number of seroconversions per cluster ranged from 3–34 with radii from zero (a single household) to 750 m; 65% of clusters had radii >100 m. No clustering was detected among clinically apparent infections.

Conclusions/Significance

Seroprevalence of previously circulating DENV serotypes can be a predictor of transmission risk for a different invading serotype and, thus, identify targets for strategically placed surveillance and intervention. Seroprevalence of a specific serotype is also important, but does not preclude other contributing factors, such as mosquito density, in determining where transmission of that virus will occur. Regardless of the epidemiological context or virus serotype, human movement appears to be an important factor in defining the spatial dimensions of DENV transmission and, thus, should be considered in the design and evaluation of surveillance and intervention strategies.

To target prevention and control strategies for dengue fever, it is essential to understand how the virus travels through the city. We report spatial analyses of dengue infections from a study monitoring school children and adult family members for dengue infection at six-month intervals from 1999–2003, in the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru. At the beginning of the study, only DENV serotypes 1 and 2 were circulating. Clusters of infections of these two viruses were concentrated in the northern region of the city, where mosquito indices and previous DENV infection were both high. In 2002, DENV-3 invaded the city, replacing DENV-1 and -2 as the dominant strain. During the invasion process, the virus spread rapidly across the city, at low levels. After this initial phase, clusters of infection appeared first in the northern region of the city, where clusters of DENV-1 and DENV-2 had occurred in prior years. Most of the clusters we identified had radii >100 meters, indicating that targeted or reactive treatment of these high-risk areas might be an effective proactive intervention strategy. Our results also help explain why vector control within 100 m of a dengue case is often not successful for large-scale disease prevention.

Microsatellite-based parentage analysis of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) using nonlethal DNA sampling

To track Aedes aegypti (L.) egg-laying behavior in the field in Iquitos, Peru, we developed methods for 1) sampling DNA from live mosquitoes and 2) high through-put parentage analysis using microsatellite markers. We were able to amplify DNA extracted from a single hind leg, but not from the pupal exuvia. Removal of a leg from teneral females caused no significant changes in female behavioral or life history traits (e.g., longevity, blood feeding frequency, fecundity, egg hatch rate, gonotrophic cycle length, or oviposition behavior). Using a panel of nine microsatellite markers and an exclusion-based software program, we matched offspring to parental pairs in 10 Ae. aegypti test families in which parents originated from natural development sites in Iquitos. By mating known individuals in the laboratory, retaining the male, sampling the female's DNA before release, and collecting offspring in the field, the technique we developed can be used to genotype large numbers of Ae. aegypti, reconstruct family relationships, and track the egg-laying behavior of individual Ae. aegypti in nature.

Oviposition site selection by the dengue vector Aedes aegypti and its implications for dengue control

Background

Because no dengue vaccine or antiviral therapy is commercially available, controlling the primary mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti, is currently the only means to prevent dengue outbreaks. Traditional models of Ae. aegypti assume that population dynamics are regulated by density-dependent larval competition for food and little affected by oviposition behavior. Due to direct impacts on offspring survival and development, however, mosquito choice in oviposition site can have important consequences for population regulation that should be taken into account when designing vector control programs.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We examined oviposition patterns by Ae. aegypti among 591 naturally occurring containers and a set of experimental containers in Iquitos, Peru. Using larval starvation bioassays as an indirect measure of container food content, we assessed whether females select containers with the most food for their offspring. Our data indicate that choice of egg-laying site is influenced by conspecific larvae and pupae, container fill method, container size, lid, and sun exposure. Although larval food positively influenced oviposition, our results did not support the hypothesis that females act primarily to maximize food for larvae. Females were most strongly attracted to sites containing immature conspecifics, even when potential competitors for their progeny were present in abundance.

Conclusion/Significance

Due to strong conspecific attraction, egg-laying behavior may contribute more to regulating Ae. aegypti populations than previously thought. If highly infested containers are targeted for removal or larvicide application, females that would have preferentially oviposited in those sites may instead distribute their eggs among other suitable, previously unoccupied containers. Strategies that kill mosquitoes late in their development (i.e., insect growth regulators that kill pupae rather than larvae) will enhance vector control by creating “egg sinks,” treated sites that exploit conspecific attraction of ovipositing females, but reduce emergence of adult mosquitoes via density-dependent larval competition and late acting insecticide.

Controlling the mosquito Aedes aegypti is of public health importance because, at present, it is the only means to stop dengue virus transmission. Implementing successful mosquito control programs requires understanding what factors regulate population abundance, as well as anticipating how mosquitoes may adapt to control measures. In some species of mosquitoes, females choose egg-laying sites to improve the survival and growth of their offspring, a behavior that ultimately influences population distribution and abundance. In the current study, we tested whether Ae. aegypti actively choose the containers in which they lay their eggs and determined what cues are most relevant to that process. We also explored whether females select containers that provide the most food for their larval progeny. Surprisingly, egg-laying females were most attracted to sites containing other immature Ae. aegypti, rather than to sites containing the most food. We propose that this behavior may contribute to density-dependent competition for food among larvae and play a larger role than previously thought in regulating Ae. aegypti populations. We recommend that accounting for, and even taking advantage of, this natural behavior will lead to more effective strategies for dengue prevention.

Epidemiology of influenza-like illness in the Amazon Basin of Peru, 2008-2009

BACKGROUND

Data addressing the incidence and epidemiology of influenza and influenza-like illness (ILI) in tropical regions of the world is scarce, particularly for the neotropics of South America.

METHODS

We conducted active, population-based surveillance for ILI across 45 city blocks within the Amazon Basin city of Iquitos, Peru. Demographic data and household characteristics were collected for all participants, and participating households were visited three times weekly to inquire about ILI (fever plus cough or sore throat) among household residents. Nasal and oropharyngeal swabs were collected from participants with ILI and tested for influenza virus infection.

RESULTS

Between May 1, 2008 and July 8, 2009, we monitored 10,341 participants for ILI for a total of 11,569.5 person-years. We detected 459 ILI episodes, with 252 (54.9%) of the participants providing specimens. Age-adjusted incidence of ILI was estimated to be 46.7 episodes/1000 person-years. Influenza A and B viruses were detected in 25 (9.9%) and 62 (24.6%) specimens of ILI patients, respectively, for an estimated age-adjusted incidence rate of 16.5 symptomatic influenza virus infections/1000 person-years. Risk factors for ILI included age, household crowding, and use of wood as cooking fuel. For influenza virus infection specifically, age and use of wood as a cooking fuel were also identified as risk factors, but no effect of household crowding was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results represent the initial population-based description of the epidemiology of ILI in the Amazon region of Peru, which will be useful for developing region-specific strategies for reducing the burden of respiratory disease.

Epidemiology of dengue virus in Iquitos, Peru 1999 to 2005: interepidemic and epidemic patterns of transmission

Background

Comprehensive, longitudinal field studies that monitor both disease and vector populations for dengue viruses are urgently needed as a pre-requisite for developing locally adaptable prevention programs or to appropriately test and license new vaccines.

Methodology and Principal Findings

We report the results from such a study spanning 5 years in the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru where DENV infection was monitored serologically among ∼2,400 members of a neighborhood-based cohort and through school-based absenteeism surveillance for active febrile illness among a subset of this cohort. At baseline, 80% of the study population had DENV antibodies, seroprevalence increased with age, and significant geographic variation was observed, with neighborhood-specific age-adjusted rates ranging from 67.1 to 89.9%. During the first 15 months, when DENV-1 and DENV-2 were co-circulating, population-based incidence rates ranged from 2–3 infections/100 person-years (p-years). The introduction of DENV-3 during the last half of 2001 was characterized by 3 distinct periods: amplification over at least 5–6 months, replacement of previously circulating serotypes, and epidemic transmission when incidence peaked at 89 infections/100 p-years.

Conclusions/Significance

Neighborhood-specific baseline seroprevalence rates were not predictive of geographic incidence patterns prior to the DENV-3 introduction, but were closely mirrored during the invasion of this serotype. Transmission varied geographically, with peak incidence occurring at different times among the 8 geographic zones in ∼16 km² of the city. The lag from novel serotype introduction to epidemic transmission and knowledge of spatially explicit areas of elevated risk should be considered for more effective application of limited resources for dengue prevention.

To develop prevention (including vaccines) and control programs for dengue fever, a significant mosquito-borne disease in the tropics, there is an urgent need for comprehensive long term field epidemiological studies. We report results from a study that monitored ∼2,400 school children and some adult family members for dengue infection at 6 month intervals from 1999 to 2005, in the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru. At enrollment, ∼80% of the participants had a previous infection with DENV serotypes 1 and 2 or both. During the first 15 months, about 3 new infections for every 100 participants were observed among the study participants. In 2001, DENV-3, a serotype not previously observed in the region, invaded Iquitos in a process characterized by 3 distinct periods: amplification over at least a 5–6 month period, replacement of previously circulating serotypes, and epidemic transmission when incidence peaked. Incidence patterns of new infections were geographically distinct from baseline prevalence rates prior to arrival of DENV-3, but closely mirrored them during the invasion. DENV transmission varied geographically corresponding to elevated mosquito densities. The invasion of a novel serotype is often characterized by 5–6 months of silent transmission before traditional surveillance programs detect the virus. This article sets the stage for subsequent publications on dengue epidemiology.

Assessing and maximizing the acceptability of global positioning system device use for studying the role of human movement in dengue virus transmission in Iquitos, Peru

As use of global positioning system (GPS) technology to study disease transmission increases, it is important to assess possible barriers to its use from the perspective of potential study participants. Fifteen focus group discussions stratified by sex, age, and motherhood status were conducted in 2008 in Iquitos, Peru. All participants said they would accept using a GPS unit for study purposes for 2-4 weeks. Participants' main concerns included caring properly for the unit, whether the unit would audio/videotape them, health effects of prolonged use, responsibility for units, and confidentiality of information. A pilot study was then conducted in which 126 persons were asked to carry GPS units for 2-4 weeks; 98% provided consent. All persons used the units expressing minimal concerns, although 44% reported forgetting the device at least once. Our study is the first to highlight participant concerns related to use of GPS for long-term monitoring of individual behavior in a resource-limited setting.

Usefulness of commercially available GPS data-loggers for tracking human movement and exposure to dengue virus

Background

Our understanding of the effects of human movement on dengue virus spread remains limited in part due to the lack of precise tools to monitor the time-dependent location of individuals. We determined the utility of a new, commercially available, GPS data-logger for long-term tracking of human movements in Iquitos, Peru. We conducted a series of evaluations focused on GPS device attributes key to reliable use and accuracy. GPS observations from two participants were later compared with semi-structured interview data to assess the usefulness of GPS technology to track individual mobility patterns.

Results

Positional point and line accuracy were 4.4 and 10.3 m, respectively. GPS wearing mode increased spatial point error by 6.9 m. Units were worn on a neck-strap by a carpenter and a moto-taxi driver for 14-16 days. The application of a clustering algorithm (I-cluster) to the raw GPS positional data allowed the identification of locations visited by each participant together with the frequency and duration of each visit. The carpenter moved less and spent more time in more fixed locations than the moto-taxi driver, who visited more locations for a shorter period of time. GPS and participants' interviews concordantly identified 6 common locations, whereas GPS alone identified 4 locations and participants alone identified 10 locations. Most (80%) of the locations identified by participants alone were places reported as visited for less than 30 minutes.

Conclusion

The present study demonstrates the feasibility of a novel, commercially available GPS data-logger for long-term tracking of humans and shows the potential of these units to quantify mobility patterns in relationship with dengue virus transmission risk in a tropical urban environment. Cost, battery life, size, programmability and ease of wear are unprecedented from previously tested units, proving the usefulness of GPS-dataloggers for linking movement of individuals and transmission risk of dengue virus and other infectious agents, particularly in resource-poor settings.

The role of human movement in the transmission of vector-borne pathogens

Background

Human movement is a key behavioral factor in many vector-borne disease systems because it influences exposure to vectors and thus the transmission of pathogens. Human movement transcends spatial and temporal scales with different influences on disease dynamics. Here we develop a conceptual model to evaluate the importance of variation in exposure due to individual human movements for pathogen transmission, focusing on mosquito-borne dengue virus.

Methodology and Principal Findings

We develop a model showing that the relevance of human movement at a particular scale depends on vector behavior. Focusing on the day-biting Aedes aegypti, we illustrate how vector biting behavior combined with fine-scale movements of individual humans engaged in their regular daily routine can influence transmission. Using a simple example, we estimate a transmission rate (R₀) of 1.3 when exposure is assumed to occur only in the home versus 3.75 when exposure at multiple locations—e.g., market, friend's—due to movement is considered. Movement also influences for which sites and individuals risk is greatest. For the example considered, intriguingly, our model predicts little correspondence between vector abundance in a site and estimated R₀ for that site when movement is considered. This illustrates the importance of human movement for understanding and predicting the dynamics of a disease like dengue. To encourage investigation of human movement and disease, we review methods currently available to study human movement and, based on our experience studying dengue in Peru, discuss several important questions to address when designing a study.

Conclusions/Significance

Human movement is a critical, understudied behavioral component underlying the transmission dynamics of many vector-borne pathogens. Understanding movement will facilitate identification of key individuals and sites in the transmission of pathogens such as dengue, which then may provide targets for surveillance, intervention, and improved disease prevention.

Vector-borne diseases constitute a largely neglected and enormous burden on public health in many resource-challenged environments, demanding efficient control strategies that could be developed through improved understanding of pathogen transmission. Human movement—which determines exposure to vectors—is a key behavioral component of vector-borne disease epidemiology that is poorly understood. We develop a conceptual framework to organize past studies by the scale of movement and then examine movements at fine-scale—i.e., people going through their regular, daily routine—that determine exposure to insect vectors for their role in the dynamics of pathogen transmission. We develop a model to quantify risk of vector contact across locations people visit, with emphasis on mosquito-borne dengue virus in the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru. An example scenario illustrates how movement generates variation in exposure risk across individuals, how transmission rates within sites can be increased, and that risk within sites is not solely determined by vector density, as is commonly assumed. Our analysis illustrates the importance of human movement for pathogen transmission, yet little is known—especially for populations most at risk to vector-borne diseases (e.g., dengue, leishmaniasis, etc.). We outline several important considerations for designing epidemiological studies to encourage investigation of individual human movement, based on experience studying dengue.

Territorial aggression and hormones during the non-breeding season in a tropical bird

The hormonal control of territorial aggression in male and female vertebrates outside the breeding season is still unresolved. Most vertebrates have regressed gonads when not breeding and do not secrete high levels of sex steroids. However, recent studies implicate estrogens in the regulation of non-breeding territoriality in some bird species. One possible source of steroids during the non-breeding season could be the adrenal glands that are known to produce sex steroid precursors such as dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA). We studied tropical, year-round territorial spotted antbirds (Hylophylax n. naevioides) and asked (1). whether both males and females are aggressive in the non-breeding season and (2). whether DHEA is detectable in the plasma at that time. We conducted simulated territorial intrusions (STIs) with live decoys to male and female free-living spotted antbirds in central Panama. Non-breeding males and females displayed robust aggressive responses to STIs, and responded more intensely to decoys of their own sex. In both sexes, plasma DHEA concentrations were detectable and higher than levels of testosterone (T) and 17beta-estradiol (E(2)). In males, plasma DHEA concentrations were positively correlated with STI duration. Next, we conducted STIs in captive non-breeding birds. Captive males and females displayed robust aggressive behavior. Plasma DHEA concentrations were detectable in both sexes, whereas T was non-detectable (E(2) was not measured). Plasma DHEA concentrations of males were positively correlated with aggressive vocalizations and appeared to increase with longer STI durations. We conclude that male and female spotted antbirds can produce DHEA during the non-breeding season and DHEA may serve as a precursor of sex steroids for the regulation of year-round territorial behavior in both sexes.