Early prediction of the impact of public health policies on obesity and lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes: A modelling approach

OBJECTIVE

Help public health decision-making requires a better understanding of the dynamics of obesity and type 2 diabetes and an assessement of different strategies to decrease their burdens.

METHODS

Based on 97,848 individual data, collected in the French Health, Health Care and Insurance Survey over 1998-2014, a Markov model was developed to describe the progression of being overweight to obesity, and the onset of type 2 diabetes. This model traces and predicts 2022-2027 burdens of obesity and type 2 diabetes, and lifetime risk of diabetes, according to different scenarios aiming at minimum to stabilize obesity at 5 years.

RESULTS

Estimated risks of type 2 diabetes increase from 0.09% (normal weight) to 1.56% (obesity II-III). Compared to the before 1995 period, progression risks are estimated to have nearly doubled for obesity and tripled for type 2 diabetes. Consequently, over 2022-2027, the prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes will continue to increase from 17.3% to 18.2% and from 7.3% to 8.1%, respectively. Scenarios statibilizing obesity would require a 22%-decrease in the probability of move up (scenario 1) or a 33%-increase in the probability of move down (scenario 2) one BMI class. However, this stabilization will not affect the increase of diabetes prevalence whereas lifetime risk of diabetes would decrease (30.9% to 27.0%). Combining both scenarios would decrease obesity by 9.9%. Only the prevalence of obesity III shows early change able to predict the outcome of a strategy: for example, 6.7%-decrease at one year, 13.3%-decrease at two years with scenario 1 stabilizing obesity at 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Prevalences of obesity and type 2 diabetes will still increase over the next 5 years. Stabilizing obesity may decrease lifetime risks of type 2 diabetes without affecting its short-term prevalence. Our study highlights that, to early assess the effectiveness of their program, public health policy makers should rely on the change in prevalence of obesity III.

Cost-effectiveness of screening and valacyclovir-based treatment strategies for first-trimester cytomegalovirus primary infection in pregnant women in France

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effectiveness, cost and cost-effectiveness of four screening strategies for first-trimester (T1) cytomegalovirus (CMV) primary infection (PI) in pregnant women in France.

METHODS

In a simulated pregnant population of 800 000 (approximate number of pregnancies each year in France), using costs based on the year 2022, we compared four CMV maternal screening strategies: Strategy S1, no systematic screening (current public health recommendations in France); Strategy S2, screening of 25-50% of the pregnant population (current screening practice in France); Strategy S3, universal screening (current medical recommendations in France); Strategy S4, universal screening (as in Strategy S3) in conjunction with valacyclovir in case of T1 PI. Outcomes were total cost, effectiveness (number of congenital infections, number of diagnosed infections) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Two ICERs were calculated, comparing Strategies S1, S2 and S3 in terms of euros (€) per additional diagnosis, and comparing Strategies S1 and S4 in € per avoided congenital infection.

RESULTS

Compared with Strategy S1, Strategy S3 enabled diagnosis of 536 more infected fetuses and Strategy S4 prevented 375 congenital infections. Strategy S1 was the least expensive strategy (€98.3m total lifetime cost), followed by Strategy S4 (€98.6m), Strategy S2 (€106.0m) and Strategy S3 (€118.9m). In the first analysis, Strategy S2 was dominated and Strategy S3 led to an additional €38 552 per additional in-utero diagnosis, compared with Strategy S1. In the second analysis, Strategy S4 led to an additional €893 per avoided congenital infection compared with Strategy S1, and was cost-saving compared with Strategy S2.

CONCLUSIONS

In France, current screening practice for CMV PI during pregnancy is no longer acceptable in terms of cost-effectiveness because this strategy was dominated by universal screening. Moreover, universal screening in conjunction with valacyclovir treatment would be cost-effective compared with current recommendations and is cost-saving compared with current practice. © 2023 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Assessing complex interventions: a systematic review of outcomes used in randomised controlled trials on STI partner notification in high-income countries

BACKGROUND

Partner notification interventions are complex and assessing their effectiveness is challenging. By reviewing the literature on the effectiveness of partner notification interventions, our aim was to evaluate the choice, collection, and interpretation of outcomes and their impact on study findings.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of individual-level randomised controlled trials evaluating the effectiveness of partner notification interventions for bacterial STIs, HIV or sexually transmitted HCV in high-income countries since 2000. Partner notification interventions included assisted patient referral interventions and expedited treatment. The content analysis was carried out through a narrative review.

RESULTS

In the 9 studies that met the inclusion criteria, 16 different outcomes were found. In most studies, one or two outcomes assessing partner notification practices were associated with an outcome reflecting STI circulation through index case reinfections. These outcomes assessed the main expected effects of partner notification interventions. However, partner notification is composed of a succession of actions between the intervention on the index case and the testing and/or treatment of the notified partners. Intermediate outcomes were missing so as to better understand levers and barriers throughout the process. Potential changes in participants' sexual behaviour after partner notification, e.g. condom use, were outcomes reported in only two studies assessing interventions including counselling. Most outcomes were collected through interviews, some weeks after the intervention, which might lead to desirability and attrition biases, respectively. Assessment of the effectiveness of partner notification interventions on partner testing/treatment was limited by the collection of data from index cases. Few data describing index cases and their partners were provided in the studies. Additional data on the number and type of exposed partners and the proportion of partners already aware of their infection before being notified would help to interpret the results.

CONCLUSIONS

These insights would help to understand why and under what conditions the intervention is considered effective and therefore can be replicated or adapted to other populations and contexts.

Modelling the potential effectiveness of hepatitis C screening and treatment strategies during pregnancy in Egypt and Ukraine

BACKGROUND & AIMS

HCV test and treat campaigns currently exclude pregnant women. Pregnancy offers a unique opportunity for HCV screening and to potentially initiate direct-acting antiviral treatment. We explored HCV screening and treatment strategies in two lower middle-income countries with high HCV prevalence, Egypt and Ukraine.

METHODS

Country-specific probabilistic decision models were developed to simulate a cohort of pregnant women. We compared five strategies: S0, targeted risk-based screening and deferred treatment (DT) to after pregnancy/breastfeeding; S1, World Health Organization (WHO) risk-based screening and DT; S2, WHO risk-based screening and targeted treatment (treat women with risk factors for HCV vertical transmission [VT]); S3, universal screening and targeted treatment during pregnancy; S4, universal screening and treatment. Maternal and infant HCV outcomes were projected.

RESULTS

S0 resulted in the highest proportion of women undiagnosed: 59% and 20% in Egypt and Ukraine, respectively, with 0% maternal cure by delivery and VT estimated at 6.5% and 7.9%, respectively. WHO risk-based screening and DT (S1) increased the proportion of women diagnosed with no change in maternal cure or VT. Universal screening and treatment during pregnancy (S4) resulted in the highest proportion of women diagnosed and cured by delivery (65% and 70%, respectively), and lower levels of VT (3.4% and 3.6%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

This is one of the first models to explore HCV screening and treatment strategies in pregnancy, which will be critical in informing future care and policy as more safety/efficacy data emerge. Universal screening and treatment in pregnancy could potentially improve both maternal and infant outcomes.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

In the context of two lower middle-income countries with high HCV burdens (Egypt and Ukraine), we designed a decision analytic model to explore five different HCV testing and treatment strategies for pregnant women, with the assumption that treatment was safe and efficacious for use in pregnancy. Assuming direct-acting antiviral treatment during pregnancy would reduce vertical transmission, our findings indicate that the provision of universal (rather than risk-based targeted) screening and treatment would provide the greatest maternal and infant benefits. While future trials are needed to assess the safety and efficacy of direct-acting antivirals in pregnancy and their impact on vertical transmission, there is increasing recognition that the elimination of HCV cannot leave entire subpopulations of pregnant women and young children behind. Our findings will be critical for policymakers when developing improved screening and treatment recommendations for pregnant women.

Benefits of tailored hepatocellular carcinoma screening in patients with cirrhosis on cancer-specific and overall mortality: A modeling approach

To validate cancer screening programs, experts recommend estimating effects on case fatality rates (CFRs) and cancer‐specific mortality. This study evaluates hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening in patients with cirrhosis for those outcomes using a modeling approach. We designed a Markov model to assess 10‐year HCC‐CFR, HCC‐related, and overall mortality per 100,000 screened patients with compensated cirrhosis. The model evaluates different HCC surveillance intervals (none, annual [12 months], semiannual [6 months], or quarterly [3 months]) and imaging modalities (ultrasound [US] or magnetic resonance imaging [MRI]) in various annual incidences (0.2%, 0.4%, or 1.5%). Compared to no surveillance, 6‐month US reduced the 10‐year HCC‐CFR from 77% to 46%. With annual incidences of 0.2%, 0.4%, and 1.5%, the model predicted 281, 565, and 2059 fewer HCC‐related deaths, respectively, and 187, 374, and 1356 fewer total deaths per 100,000 screened patients, respectively. Combining alpha‐fetoprotein screening to 6‐month US led to 32, 63, and 230 fewer HCC‐related deaths per 100,000 screened patients for annual incidences of 0.2%, 0.4%, and 1.5%, respectively. Compared to 6‐month US, 3‐month US reduced cancer‐related mortality by 14%, predicting 61, 123, and 446 fewer HCC‐related deaths per 100,000 screened patients with annual incidences of 0.2%, 0.4%, and 1.5%, respectively. Compared to 6‐month US, 6‐month MRI (−17%) and 12‐month MRI (−6%) reduced HCC‐related mortality. Compared to 6‐month US, overall mortality reductions ranged from −0.1% to −1.3% when using 3‐month US or MRI. A US surveillance interval of 6 months improves HCC‐related and overall mortality compared to no surveillance. A shorter US interval or using MRI could reduce HCC‐CFR and HCC‐related mortality, with a modest effect on overall mortality.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM) living with HIV: results from the French Hospital Database on HIV (ANRS CO4-FHDH) cohort study, 2014 to 2017

BackgroundDespite the availability of highly effective direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) and the expected treatment as prevention (TasP) effect, transmission of hepatitis C virus (HCV) persists in men who have sex with men (MSM) who engage in high-risk sexual behaviours.AimWe aimed to estimate the incidence of primary HCV infection among MSM living with HIV in France when DAA was readily available.MethodsWe used data from a large French hospital cohort of persons living with HIV (ANRS CO4-FHDH) prospectively collected between 2014 and 2017. HCV incidence rates were calculated using person-time methods for HCV-negative MSM at inclusion who had serological follow-up from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2017. Sensitivity analyses were performed by varying the main assumptions to assess their impact on the results.ResultsOf 14,273 MSM living with HIV who were initially HCV-seronegative, 330 acquired HCV during follow-up over 45,866 person-years (py), resulting in an overall estimated incidence rate of 0.72/100 py (95% CI: 0.65-0.80). HCV incidence significantly decreased from 0.98/100 py (95% CI: 0.81-1.19) in 2014 to 0.45/100 py (95% CI: 0.35-0.59) in 2017 (54% decrease; 95% CI: 36-67). This trend was confirmed by most of the sensitivity analyses.ConclusionThe primary incidence of HCV was halved for MSM living with HIV between 2014 and 2017. This decrease may be related to unrestricted DAA availability in France for individuals living with HIV. Further interventions, including risk reduction, are needed to reach HCV micro-elimination in MSM living with HIV.

Impact of test-and-treat and risk reduction strategies on HCV transmission among MSM living with HIV in France: a modelling approach

OBJECTIVE

Since the early 2000s, there has been an epidemic of HCV occurring among men who have sex with men (MSM) living with HIV, mainly associated with high-risk sexual and drug-related behaviours. Early HCV diagnosis and treatment, and behavioural risk-reduction, may be effective to eliminate HCV among MSM living with HIV.

DESIGN

We developed a deterministic dynamic compartmental model to simulate the impact of test-and-treat and risk-reduction strategies on HCV epidemic (particularly on incidence and prevalence) among MSM living with HIV in France. We accounted for HIV and HCV cascades of care, HCV natural history and heterogeneity in HCV risk behaviours. The model was calibrated to primary HCV incidence observed between 2014 and 2017 among MSM living with HIV in care (ANRS CO4-French hospital database on HIV (FHDH)).

RESULTS

With current French practices (annual HCV screening and immediate treatment), total HCV incidence would fall by 70%, from 0.82/100 person-years in 2015 to 0.24/100 person-years in 2030. It would decrease to 0.19/100 person-years in 2030 with more frequent screening and to 0.19 (0.12)/100 person-years in 2030 with a 20% (50%) risk-reduction. When combining screening every 3 months with a 50% risk-reduction, HCV incidence would be 0.11/100 person-years in 2030, allowing to get close to the WHO target (90% reduction from 2015 to 2030). Similarly, HCV prevalence would decrease from 2.79% in 2015 to 0.48% in 2030 (vs 0.71% with current practices).

CONCLUSION

Combining test-and-treat and risk-reduction strategies could have a marked impact on the HCV epidemic, paving the way to HCV elimination among MSM living with HIV.

A tool to predict progression of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in severely obese patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Severely obese patients are a growing population at risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Considering the increasing burden, a predictive tool of NAFLD progression would be of interest. Our objective was to provide a tool allowing general practitioners to identify and refer the patients most at risk, and specialists to estimate disease progression and adapt the therapeutic strategy.

METHODS

This predictive tool is based on a Markov model simulating steatosis, fibrosis and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) evolution. This model was developped from data of 1801 severely obese, bariatric surgery candidates, with histological assessment, integrating duration of exposure to risk factors. It is then able to predict current disease severity in the absence of assessment, and future cirrhosis risk based on current stage.

RESULTS

The model quantifies the impact of sex, body-mass index at 20, diabetes, age of overweight onset, on progression. For example, for 40-year-old severely obese patients seen by the general practitioners: (a) non-diabetic woman overweight at 20, and (b) diabetic man overweight at 10, without disease assessment, the model predicts their current risk to have NASH or F3-F4: for (a) 5.7% and 0.6%, for (b) 16.1% and 10.0% respectively. If those patients have been diagnosed F2 by the specialist, the model predicts the 5-year cirrhosis risk: 1.8% in the absence of NASH and 6.0% in its presence for (a), 10.3% and 26.7% respectively, for (b).

CONCLUSIONS

This model provides a decision-making tool to predict the risk of liver disease that could help manage severely obese patients.

A Model to Identify Heavy Drinkers at High Risk for Liver Disease Progression

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) causes chronic liver disease. We investigated how information on patients' drinking history and amount, stage of liver disease, and demographic feature can be used to determine risk of disease progression.

METHODS

We collected data from 2334 heavy drinkers (50 g/day or more) with persistently abnormal results from liver tests who had been admitted to a hepato-gastroenterology unit in France from January 1982 through December 1997; patients with a recorded duration of alcohol abuse were assigned to the development cohort (n=1599; 75% men) or the validation cohort (n=735; 75% men), based on presence of a liver biopsy. We collected data from both cohorts on patient history and disease stage at the time of hospitalization. For the development cohort, severity of the disease was scored by the METAVIR (due to the availability of liver histology reports); in the validation cohort only the presence of liver complications was assessed. We developed a model of ALD progression and occurrence of liver complications (hepatocellular carcinoma and/or liver decompensation) in association with exposure to alcohol, age at the onset of heavy drinking, amount of alcohol intake, sex and body mass index. The model was fitted to the development cohort and then evaluated in the validation cohort. We then tested the ability of the model to predict disease progression for any patient profile (baseline evaluation). Patients with a 5-y weighted risk of liver complications greater than 5% were considered at high risk for disease progression.

RESULTS

Model results are given for the following patient profiles: men and women, 40 y old, who started drinking at an age of 25 y, drank 150 g/day, and had a body mass index of 22 kg/m² according to the disease severity at baseline evaluation. For men with baseline F0-F2 fibrosis, the model estimated the probabilities of normal liver, steatosis, or steatohepatitis at baseline to be 31.8%, 61.5% and 6.7%, respectively. The 5-y weighted risk of liver complications was 1.9%, ranging from 0.2% for men with normal liver at baseline evaluation to 10.3% for patients with steatohepatitis at baseline. For women with baseline F0-F2 fibrosis, probabilities of normal liver, steatosis, or steatohepatitis at baseline were 25.1%, 66.5% and 8.4%, respectively; the 5-y weighted risk of liver complications was 3.2%, ranging from 0.5% for women with normal liver at baseline to 14.7% for patients with steatohepatitis at baseline. Based on the model, men with F3-F4 fibrosis at baseline have a 24.5% 5-y weighted risk of complications (ranging from 20.2% to 34.5%) and women have a 30.1% 5-y weighted risk of complications (ranging from 24.7% to 41.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a Markov model that integrates data on level and duration of alcohol use to identify patients at high risk of liver disease progression. This model might be used to adapt patient care pathways.

Securing sustainable funding for viral hepatitis elimination plans

The majority of people infected with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the European Union (EU) remain undiagnosed and untreated. During recent years, immigration to EU has further increased HCV prevalence. It has been estimated that, out of the 4.2 million adults affected by HCV infection in the 31 EU/ European Economic Area (EEA) countries, as many as 580 000 are migrants. Additionally, HCV is highly prevalent and under addressed in Eastern Europe. In 2013, the introduction of highly effective treatments for HCV with direct-acting antivirals created an unprecedented opportunity to cure almost all patients, reduce HCV transmission and eliminate the disease. However, in many settings, HCV elimination poses a serious challenge for countries' health spending. On 6 June 2018, the Hepatitis B and C Public Policy Association held the 2nd EU HCV Policy summit. It was emphasized that key stakeholders should work collaboratively since only a few countries in the EU are on track to achieve HCV elimination by 2030. In particular, more effort is needed for universal screening. The micro-elimination approach in specific populations is less complex and less costly than country-wide elimination programmes and is an important first step in many settings. Preliminary data suggest that implementation of the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis can be cost saving. However, innovative financing mechanisms are needed to raise funds upfront for scaling up screening, treatment and harm reduction interventions that can lead to HCV elimination by 2030, the stated goal of the WHO.

Quality of life in patients with chronic hepatitis C infection: Severe comorbidities and disease perception matter more than liver-disease stage

Background and aims

This study evaluated the clinical and non-clinical determinants of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) associated with untreated chronic hepatitis C (CHC) in France.

Methods

From 01/2014 to 01/2015, untreated CHC patients were invited to complete a questionnaire including EQ-5D utility instrument and two visual analogue scales (VAS) measuring overall health and fatigue in three French centers (Paris, Lille and Montpellier). Answers were analyzed in mixed models (taking into account the clustering effects of centers and physicians).

Results

Five hundreds and five patients were enrolled: 52% males; the mean age was 54; 41% had BMI>25; 64% had genotype 1; 36% were at the stage of severe fibrosis (F3-F4); 38% had severe comorbidities other than liver-related. In the univariate analysis, EQ-5D utility was associated with socio-demographic variables as age, place of birth, education, and employment; CHC-related variables as conditions of HCV screening and severity of fibrosis; CHC-unrelated variables as comorbidities other than CHC, being overweight, and psychiatric disorders; feelings about CHC disease as perception of progression, lack of information on CHC and its treatments, and entourage’s feeling. In multivariate analysis, EQ-5D utility was affected by not being in employment (0.72 vs. 0.80), having severe comorbidities other than CHC (0.72 vs. 0.79), being overweight (0.73 vs. 0.78), and feeling worried about CHC progression (0.66 vs. 0.72–0.84). Similar results were found for the VAS.

Conclusions

The presence of severe comorbidities and worrying about CHC progression, but not stage of fibrosis, seem to alter significantly EQ-5D health utility in CHC French patients.

The global campaign to eliminate HBV and HCV infection: International Viral Hepatitis Elimination Meeting and core indicators for development towards the 2030 elimination goals

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) affect more than 320 million people worldwide, which is more than HIV, tuberculosis (TB) and malaria combined. Elimination of HBV and HCV will, therefore, produce substantial public health and economic benefits and, most importantly, the prevention of 1.2 million deaths per year. In 2016, member states of the World Health Assembly unanimously adopted a resolution declaring that viral hepatitis should be eliminated by 2030. Currently, few countries have elimination programmes in place and even though the tools to achieve elimination are available, the right resources, commitments and allocations are lacking. During the fifth International Viral Hepatitis Elimination Meeting (IVHEM), 7-8 December 2018, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, an expert panel of clinicians, virologists and public health specialists discussed the current status of viral hepatitis elimination programmes across multiple countries, challenges in achieving elimination and the core indicators for monitoring progress, approaches that have failed and successful elimination plans.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions targeting harm reduction and chronic hepatitis C cascade of care in people who inject drugs: The case of France

Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) represent an opportunity to improve hepatitis C virus (HCV) care cascade. This combined with improved harm reduction interventions may lead to HCV elimination especially in people who inject drugs (PWID). We assessed the effectiveness/cost-effectiveness of improvements in harm reduction and chronic hepatitis C (CHC) care cascade in PWID in France. We used a dynamic model of HCV transmission and CHC natural history and evaluated the following: improved needle/syringe programmes-opioid substitution therapies, faster diagnosis/linkage to care, earlier treatment initiation, alone and in combination among active PWID (mean age = 36). Outcomes were as follows: life expectancy in discounted quality-adjusted life years (QALYs); direct lifetime discounted costs; incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER); number of infections/reinfections. Under the current practice, life expectancy was 15.846 QALYs, for a mean lifetime cost of €20 762. Treatment initiation at F0 fibrosis stage alone was less effective and more costly than faster diagnosis/linkage to care combined with treatment initiation at F0, which increased life expectancy to 16.694 QALYs, decreased new infections by 37%, with a ICER = €5300/QALY. Combining these interventions with harm reduction improvements was the most effective scenario (life expectancy = 16.701 QALYs, 41% decrease in new infections) but was not cost-effective (ICER = €105 600/QALY); it became cost-effective with higher initial HCV incidence rates and lower harm reduction coverage than in our base-case scenario. This study illustrated the high effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness, of a faster diagnosis/linkage to care together with treatment from F0 with DAAs. This "Test and treat" strategy should play a central role both in improving the life expectancies of HCV-infected patients, and in reducing HCV transmission.

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of hepatitis C screening strategies in France

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In Europe, hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening still targets people at high risk of infection. We aim to determine the cost-effectiveness of expanded HCV screening in France.

METHODS

A Markov model simulated chronic hepatitis C (CHC) prevalence, incidence of events, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in the French general population, aged 18 to 80 years, undiagnosed for CHC for different strategies: S1 = current strategy targeting the at risk population; S2 = S1 and all men between 18 and 59 years; S3 = S1 and all individuals between 40 and 59 years; S4 = S1 and all individuals between 40 and 80 years; S5 = all individuals between 18 and 80 years (universal screening). Once CHC was diagnosed, treatment was initiated either to patients with fibrosis stage ≥F2 or regardless of fibrosis. Data were extracted from published literature, a national prevalence survey, and a previously published mathematical model. ICER were interpreted based on one or three times French GDP per capita (€32,800).

RESULTS

Universal screening led to the lowest prevalence of CHC and incidence of events, regardless of treatment initiation. When considering treatment initiation to patients with fibrosis ≥F2, targeting all people aged 40-80 was the only cost-effective strategy at both thresholds (€26,100/QALY). When we considered treatment for all, although universal screening of all individuals aged 18-80 is associated with the highest costs, it is more effective than targeting all people aged 40-80, and cost-effective at both thresholds (€31,100/QALY).

CONCLUSIONS

In France, universal screening is the most effective screening strategy for HCV. Universal screening is cost-effective when treatment is initiated regardless of fibrosis stage. From an individual and especially from a societal perspective of HCV eradication, this strategy should be implemented.

LAY SUMMARY

In the context of highly effective and well tolerated therapies for hepatitis C virus that are now recommended for all patients, a reassessment of hepatitis C screening strategies is needed. An effectiveness and cost-effectiveness study of different strategies targeting either the at-risk population, specific ages or all individuals was performed. In France, universal screening is the most effective strategy and is cost-effective when treatment is initiated regardless of fibrosis stage. From an individual and especially from a societal perspective of hepatitis C virus eradication, this strategy should be implemented.

Are targeted treatment recommendations in chronic hepatitis C tailored to diagnostic methods of fibrosis?

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The progression of chronic HCV infection varies significantly depending on patient characteristics. The goal of the present study was to evaluate the consequences of targeted and universal therapy for HCV-related morbidity-mortality based on the use of non-invasive diagnostic tests in France, Italy and the UK.

METHODS

A country-specific Markov model was used to predict clinical outcomes in patients with chronic HCV mono-infection over 5years. Therapeutic strategies used in the three countries analysed: no treatment, targeted therapy based on stage of fibrosis (F2- or F3-scenario), treatment regardless of stage of fibrosis (universal analysis), base-case analysis and yearly assessments.

RESULTS

Universal therapy is the most effective strategy and reduced the 5-year incidence of cirrhosis by 12.0-17.7, liver complications by 4.2-5.3 and liver deaths by 3.7-4.7, vs. no treatment. In base-case analysis, the F2-scenario using FibroScan or patented blood biomarkers reduces the 5-year incidence of cirrhosis by 2.7-4.0, liver complications by 3.5-3.7 and liver deaths by 3.3-3.7, vs. no treatment. The results of the F3-scenario are poor for the incidence of cirrhosis, and moderately effective for the liver complications. The alternative analysis with a yearly assessment of fibrosis improves the impact of targeted therapy.

CONCLUSION

By quantifying the impact of different strategies of targeted therapy and universal therapy, this study could help health agencies and experts to draft therapeutic guidelines for HCV-related fibrosis.

LAY SUMMARY

The impact of different treatment strategies was evaluated in three countries, France, Italy and UK, using a mathematical model. This analysis showed that: i) A prioritization strategy of HCV treatment for patients with advanced disease would decrease the overall impact of treatment on morbidity and mortality; and ii) A strategy initiating HCV treatment to all would already show a benefit in reducing 5-year morbidity and mortality.

Estimating the Time to Diagnosis and the Chance of Spontaneous Clearance During Acute Hepatitis C in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Individuals

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is often asymptomatic, and the date of infection is almost impossible to determine. Furthermore, spontaneous clearance (SC) may occur, but little is known about its time of occurrence.

METHODS

Data on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-HCV coinfected individuals were used to inform a stochastic simulation model of HCV viral load kinetics, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and HCV antibodies during acute hepatitis C. The dates of diagnosis and potential SC were estimated through a Bayesian approach. Hepatitis C virus diagnosis was assumed to be based on an elevated ALT level detected during a control visit for HIV-infected individuals, which occurred every 3 months (scenario A) or every 6 months (scenario B).

RESULTS

We found that HCV diagnosis occurred after a median of 115 days and 170 days of infection in scenarios A and B, respectively. Among spontaneous clearers, SC occurred after a median time of 184 days after infection. Seven percent (scenario B) to 10% (scenario A) of SCs appeared more than 6 months after diagnosis, and 3% (both scenarios) of SCs appeared more than 1 year after diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Acute hepatitis C diagnosis occurs late in HIV-HCV coinfected individuals. Screening for HCV in HIV-infected individuals should be performed frequently to reduce delays. Our findings about late occurrence of SC support "wait and see" strategies for treatment initiation from an individual basis. However, early treatment initiation may reduce HCV transmission.

2014 French guidelines for hepatitis B and C screening: a combined targeted and mass testing strategy of chronic viruses namely HBV, HCV and HIV

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Worldwide and, to a lesser extent, in France, a minority of individuals infected with hepatitis B (HBV) and C (HCV) is aware of its status. Given the current availability of highly effective anti-HBV and anti-HCV agents, the high rate of undiagnosed people, associated with individual and community prejudices (liver disease worsening, persistence of a hidden transmission reservoir and medicoeconomic burden of delayed care), is unacceptable.

METHODS

On the occasion of the first French general report on viral hepatitis, new recommendations for HBV and HCV testing were issued. We aim to introduce the new French strategy for HBV and HCV screening, and to describe the underlying epidemiological data.

RESULTS

These recommendations comprise various items. First, the screening of chronic viruses, namely HBV, HCV and HIV, should be quasi-systematically combined. Second, the targeted screening of groups at risk of viral exposure must be strengthened. Third, routine testing for each of these three viruses should be offered at least once to men of 18-60 years old who had never been tested. In parallel, in pregnant women, in addition to HIV-HBV screening, currently recommended HCV testing should be routinely performed during the first trimester of pregnancy. In order to best achieve the target populations, community initiatives that propose testing actions should be encouraged, particularly those including rapid point-of-care tests.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, these recommendations aim to define a comprehensive testing strategy for chronic viral infections, emphasizing both targeted screening and mass screening and considering jointly HBV, HCV and HIV.

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact of interferon-free direct-acting antiviral-based regimens for hepatitis C treatment: the French case

We evaluated the cost-effectiveness and the budget impact of new DAA-based regimen use in France. A Markov model simulated chronic hepatitis C (CHC) treatment interventions with IFN-based and IFN-free regimens at stage of fibrosis ≥F3, ≥F2 or regardless of fibrosis stage, and treatment either with the least or the most expensive combination. It estimated quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). It also assessed the budget impact over 5 years of treating all CHC-screened patients, regardless of fibrosis, assuming ≤20 000 patients treated/year and priority to ≥F3. Sensitivity analyses were also conducted. For genotypes (G) 1-4, the initiation of IFN-free regardless of fibrosis was a cost-effective strategy compared to prior standard of care (SOC) initiated at stage F2: €40 400-88 300/QALY gained in G1; similar results were obtained for patients infected with G4. Considering G2-3, the most cost-effective strategy was IFN-based regimens regardless of fibrosis compared to prior SOC initiated at stage F2: €21 300 and €19 400/QALY gained, respectively; the strategy with IFN-free regimens being more effective but not cost-effective at current costs. The budget impact of treating all CHC-screened patients over 5 years would range between 3.5 and 7.2 billion €, depending on whether one considers the least or the most expensive combination of new DAAs and whether one treats G2-3 with IFN-based or IFN-free new DAAs. In France, treatment initiation with new DDAs regardless of fibrosis stage is cost-effective, but would add 3.5-7.2 billion € to an already overburdened medical care system.

Hepatitis C treatment as prevention of viral transmission and liver-related morbidity in persons who inject drugs

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) seroprevalence remains high in people who inject drug (PWID) populations, often above 60%. Highly effective direct-acting antiviral (DAA) regimens (90% efficacy) are becoming available for HCV treatment. This therapeutic revolution raises the possibility of eliminating HCV from this population. However, for this, an effective cascade of care is required. In the context of the available DAA therapies, we used a dynamic individual-based model including a model of the PWID social network to simulate the impact of improved testing, linkage to care, and adherence to treatment, and of modified treatment recommendation on the transmission and on the morbidity of HCV in PWID in France. Under the current incidence and cascade of care, with treatment initiated at fibrosis stage ≥F2, HCV prevalence decreased from 42.8% to 24.9% (95% confidence interval: 24.8-24.9) after 10 years. Changing treatment initiation criteria to treat from F0 was the only intervention leading to a substantial additional decrease in prevalence, which fell to 11.6% (95% CI: 11.6-11.7) at 10 years. Combining this change with improved testing, linkage to care, and adherence to treatment decreased HCV prevalence to 7.0% (95% CI: 7.0-7.1) at 10 years and avoided 15% (95% CI: 14-17) and 29% (95% CI: 28-30) of cirrhosis complications over 10 and 40 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Major decreases in prevalent HCV infections occur only when treatment is initiated at early stages of fibrosis, suggesting that systematic treatment in PWID, where incidence remains high, would be beneficial. However, elimination within the 10 next years will be difficult to achieve using treatment alone, even with a highly improved cascade of care.

Hepatitis C virus treatment in the real world: optimising treatment and access to therapies

Chronic HCV infections represent a major worldwide public health problem and are responsible for a large proportion of liver related deaths, mostly because of HCV-associated hepatocellular carcinoma and cirrhosis. The treatment of HCV has undergone a rapid and spectacular revolution. In the past 5 years, the launch of direct acting antiviral drugs has seen sustained virological response rates reach 90% and above for many patient groups. The new treatments are effective, well tolerated, allow for shorter treatment regimens and offer new opportunities for previously excluded groups. This therapeutic revolution has changed the rules for treatment of HCV, moving the field towards an interferon-free era and raising the prospect of HCV eradication. This manuscript addresses the new challenges regarding treatment optimisation in the real world, improvement of antiviral efficacy in 'hard-to-treat' groups, the management of patients whose direct acting antiviral drug treatment was unsuccessful, and access to diagnosis and treatment in different parts of the world.

How to optimize hepatitis C virus treatment impact on life years saved in resource-constrained countries

In resource-constrained countries where the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) disease is usually high, it is important to know which population should be treated first in order to increase treatment effectiveness. The aim was to estimate the effectiveness of different HCV treatment eligibility scenarios in three different countries. Using a Markov model, we estimated the number of life-years saved (LYS) with different treatment eligibility scenarios according to fibrosis stage (F1-F4 or F3-4), compared to base case (F2-F4), at a constant treatment rate, of patients between 18 and 60 years of age, at stages F0/F1 to F4, without liver complications or coinfections, chronically infected by HCV, and treated with pegylated interferon (IFN)/ribavirin or more-efficacious therapies (i.e. IFN free). We conducted the analysis in Egypt (prevalence = 14.7%; 45,000 patients treated/year), Thailand (prevalence = 2.2%; 1,000 patients treated/year), and Côte d'Ivoire (prevalence = 3%; 150 patients treated/year). In Egypt, treating F1 patients in addition to ≥F2 patients (SE1 vs. SE0) decreased LYS by 3.9%. Focusing treatment only on F3-F4 patients increased LYS by 6.7% (SE2 vs. SE0). In Thailand and Côte d'Ivoire, focusing treatment only on F3-F4 patients increased LYS by 15.3% and 11.0%, respectively, compared to treating patients ≥F2 (ST0 and SC0, respectively). Treatment only for patients at stages F3-F4 with IFN-free therapies would increase LYS by 16.7% versus SE0 in Egypt, 22.0% versus ST0 in Thailand, and 13.1% versus SC0 in Côte d'Ivoire. In this study, we did not take into account the yearly new infections and the impact of treatment on HCV transmission.

CONCLUSION

Our model-based analysis demonstrates that prioritizing treatment in F3-F4 patients in resource-constrained countries is the most effective scenario in terms of LYS, regardless of treatment considered.

Dynamic modelling of hepatitis C virus transmission among people who inject drugs: a methodological review

Equipment sharing among people who inject drugs (PWID) is a key risk factor in infection by hepatitis C virus (HCV). Both the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions aimed at reducing HCV transmission in this population (such as opioid substitution therapy, needle exchange programmes or improved treatment) are difficult to evaluate using field surveys. Ethical issues and complicated access to the PWID population make it difficult to gather epidemiological data. In this context, mathematical modelling of HCV transmission is a useful alternative for comparing the cost and effectiveness of various interventions. Several models have been developed in the past few years. They are often based on strong hypotheses concerning the population structure. This review presents compartmental and individual-based models to underline their strengths and limits in the context of HCV infection among PWID. The final section discusses the main results of the papers.

Hepatocellular carcinoma screening in patients with compensated hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis aware of their HCV status improves survival: a modeling approach

Because of the ongoing debate on the benefit of ultrasound (US) screening for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), we assessed the impact of screening on hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related compensated cirrhosis patients aware of their HCV status. A Markov model simulated progression from HCC diagnosis to death in 700 patients with HCV-related compensated cirrhosis aware of their HCV status to estimate life expectancy (LE) and cumulative death at 5 years. Five scenarios were compared: S1, no screening; S2, screening by currently existing practices (57% access and effectiveness leading to the diagnosis of 42% at Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage [BCLC-0/A]); S3, S2 with increased access (97%); S4, S2 with an efficacy of screening close to that achieved in a randomized controlled trial leading to the diagnosis of 87% of patients at stage BCLC-0/A; S5, S3+S4. The analysis was corrected for lead-time bias. Currently existing practices of HCC screening increased LE by 11 months and reduced HCC mortality at 5 years by 6% compared to no screening (P = 0.0013). Compared to current screening practices, we found that: 1) increasing the rate of access to screening would increase LE by 7 months and reduce HCC mortality at 5 years by 5% (P = 0.045); 2) optimal screening would increase LE by 14 months and reduce HCC mortality at 5 years by 9% (P = 0.0002); 3) the combination of an increased rate of access and optimal effectiveness of HCC screening would increase LE by 31 months and decrease HCC mortality at 5 years by 20% (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

The present study shows that US screening for HCC in patients with compensated HCV-related cirrhosis aware of their HCV status improves survival and emphasizes the crucial role of screening effectiveness.

Should we await IFN-free regimens to treat HCV genotype 1 treatment-naive patients? A cost-effectiveness analysis (ANRS 95141)

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In treatment-naive patients mono-infected with genotype 1 chronic HCV, treatments with telaprevir/boceprevir (TVR/BOC)-based triple therapy are standard-of-care. However, more efficacious direct-acting antivirals (IFN-based new DAAs) are available and interferon-free (IFN-free) regimens are imminent (2015).

METHODS

A mathematical model estimated quality-adjusted life years, cost and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of (i) IFN-based new DAAs vs. TVR/BOC-based triple therapy; and (ii) IFN-based new DAAs initiation strategies, given that IFN-free regimens are imminent. The sustained virological response in F3-4/F0-2 was 71/89% with IFN-based new DAAs, 85/95% with IFN-free regimens, vs. 64/80% with TVR/BOC-based triple therapy. Serious adverse events leading to discontinuation were taken as: 0-0.6% with IFN-based new DAAs, 0% with IFN-free regimens, vs. 1-10% with TVR/BOC-based triple therapy. Costs were €60,000 for 12weeks of IFN-based new DAAs and two times higher for IFN-free regimens.

RESULTS

Treatment with IFN-based new DAAs when fibrosis stage ⩾F2 is cost-effective compared to TVR/BOC-based triple therapy (€37,900/QALY gained), but not at F0-1 (€103,500/QALY gained). Awaiting the IFN-free regimens is more effective, except in F4 patients, but not cost-effective compared to IFN-based new DAAs. If we decrease the cost of IFN-free regimens close to that of IFN-based new DAAs, then awaiting the IFN-free regimen becomes cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment with IFN-based new DAAs at stage ⩾F2 is both effective and cost-effective compared to TVR/BOC triple therapy. Awaiting IFN-free regimens and then treating regardless of fibrosis is more efficacious, except in F4 patients; however, the cost-effectiveness of this strategy is highly dependent on its cost.

Is expert opinion reliable when estimating transition probabilities? The case of HCV-related cirrhosis in Egypt

BACKGROUND

Data on HCV-related cirrhosis progression are scarce in developing countries in general, and in Egypt in particular. The objective of this study was to estimate the probability of death and transition between different health stages of HCV (compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma) for an Egyptian population of patients with HCV-related cirrhosis.

METHODS

We used the "elicitation of expert opinions" method to obtain collective knowledge from a panel of 23 Egyptian experts (among whom 17 were hepatologists or gastroenterologists and 2 were infectiologists). The questionnaire was based on virtual medical cases and asked the experts to assess probability of death or probability of various cirrhosis complications. The design was a Delphi study: we attempted to obtain a consensus between experts via a series of questionnaires interspersed with group response feedback.

RESULTS

We found substantial disparity between experts' answers, and no consensus was reached at the end of the process. Moreover, we obtained high death probability and high risk of hepatocellular carcinoma. The annual transition probability to death was estimated at between 10.1% and 61.5% and the annual probability of occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma was estimated at between 16.8% and 58.9% (depending on age, gender, time spent in cirrhosis and cirrhosis severity).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that eliciting expert opinions is not suited for determining the natural history of diseases due to practitioners' difficulties in evaluating quantities. Cognitive bias occurring during this type of study might explain our results.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of immediate versus delayed treatment of hepatitis C virus-infected patients in a country with limited resources: the case of Egypt

BACKGROUND

Because of logistical and economic issues, in Egypt, as in other resource-limited settings, decision makers should determine for which patients hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment should be prioritized. We assessed the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different treatment initiation strategies.

METHODS

Using a Markov model, we simulated HCV disease in chronically infected patients in Egypt, to compare lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of different treatment initiation strategies.

RESULTS

Immediate treatment of patients at stages F1/F2/F3 was less expensive and more effective than delaying treatment until more severe stages or not providing treatment (in patients diagnosed at F1: QALE = 18.32 years if treatment at F1 vs 18.22 if treatment at F2). Treatment of F4 patients was more effective than no treatment at all (QALE = 10.33 years vs 8.77 years) and was cost-effective (ICER = $1915/quality-adjusted life-year [QALY]). When considering that affordable triple therapies, including new direct-acting antivirals, will be available starting in 2016, delaying treatment until stage F2, then treating all patients regardless of their disease stage after 2016, was found to be cost-effective (ICER = $33/QALY).

CONCLUSIONS

In Egypt, immediate treatment of patients with fibrosis stage F1-F3 who present to care is less expensive and more effective than delaying treatment. However, immediate treatment at stage F1 is only slightly more effective than waiting for disease to progress to stage F2 before starting treatment and is sensitive to the forthcoming availability of new treatments. Treating patients at stage F4 is highly effective and cost-effective. In Egypt, decision makers should prioritize treatment for F4 patients and delay treatment for F1 patients who present to care.

Impact of emerging hepatitis C virus treatments on future needs for liver transplantation in France: a modelling approach

BACKGROUND

In light of the impact of emerging hepatitis C virus treatments on morbidity and mortality, we sought to determine whether candidates for liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma and decompensated cirrhosis will decrease sufficiently to match liver grafts for hepatitis C virus-infected patients.

AIMS

Using a Markov model, we quantified future liver graft needs for hepatitis C virus-induced diseases and estimated the impact of current and emerging treatments.

METHODS

We simulated progression of yearly-hepatitis-C-virus-infected cohorts from the beginning of the epidemic and calculated 2013-2022 candidates for liver transplantation up until 2022 without and with therapies. We compared these estimated numbers to projected trends in liver grafts for hepatitis C virus.

RESULTS

Overall, current treatment would avoid transplantation of 4425 (4183-4684) potential candidates during the period 2013-2022. It would enable an 88% and 42% reduction in the gap between liver transplantation activity and candidates for hepatocellular carcinoma and decompensated cirrhosis, respectively. Emerging hepatitis C virus treatments would allow adequacy in transplant activities for hepatocellular carcinoma. However, they would not lead to adequacy in decompensated cirrhosis from 2013 to 2022. Results were robust to sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSION

Our study indicates that patients will benefit from public health policies regarding hepatitis C virus screening and therapeutic access to new emerging treatments.

The state of hepatitis B and C in the Mediterranean and Balkan countries: report from a summit conference

The burden of disease due to chronic viral hepatitis constitutes a global threat. In many Balkan and Mediterranean countries, the disease burden due to viral hepatitis remains largely unrecognized, including in high-risk groups and migrants, because of a lack of reliable epidemiological data, suggesting the need for better and targeted surveillance for public health gains. In many countries, the burden of chronic liver disease due to hepatitis B and C is increasing due to ageing of unvaccinated populations and migration, and a probable increase in drug injecting. Targeted vaccination strategies for hepatitis B virus (HBV) among risk groups and harm reduction interventions at adequate scale and coverage for injecting drug users are needed. Transmission of HBV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) in healthcare settings and a higher prevalence of HBV and HCV among recipients of blood and blood products in the Balkan and North African countries highlight the need to implement and monitor universal precautions in these settings and use voluntary, nonremunerated, repeat donors. Progress in drug discovery has improved outcomes of treatment for both HBV and HCV, although access is limited by the high costs of these drugs and resources available for health care. Egypt, with the highest burden of hepatitis C in the world, provides treatment through its National Control Strategy. Addressing the burden of viral hepatitis in the Balkan and Mediterranean regions will require national commitments in the form of strategic plans, financial and human resources, normative guidance and technical support from regional agencies and research.

Missed opportunities for HIV testing in newly-HIV-diagnosed patients, a cross sectional study

BACKGROUND

In France, 1/3 HIV-infected patients is diagnosed at an advanced stage of the disease. We describe missed opportunities for earlier HIV testing in newly-HIV-diagnosed patients.

METHODS

Cross sectional study. Adults living in France for ≥1 year, diagnosed with HIV-infection ≤6 months earlier, were included from 06/2009 to 10/2010. We collected information on patient characteristics at diagnosis, history of HIV testing, contacts with healthcare settings, and occurrence of HIV-related events 3 years prior to HIV diagnosis. During these 3 years, we assessed whether or not HIV testing had been proposed by the healthcare provider upon first contact in patients notifying that they were MSM or had HIV-related conditions.

RESULTS

1,008 newly HIV-diagnosed patients (mean age: 39 years; male: 79%; MSM: 53%; diagnosed with an AIDS-defining event: 16%). During the 3-year period prior to HIV diagnosis, 99% of participants had frequented a healthcare setting and 89% had seen a general practitioner at least once a year. During a contact with a healthcare setting, 91/191 MSM (48%) with no HIV-related conditions, said being MSM; 50 of these (55%) did not have any HIV test proposal. Only 21% (41/191) of overall MSM who visited a healthcare provider received a test proposal. Likewise, 299/364 patients (82%) who sought care for s had a missed opportunity for HIV testing.

CONCLUSIONS

Under current screening policies, missed opportunities for HIV testing remain unacceptably high. This argues in favor of improving risk assessment, and HIV-related conditions recognition in all healthcare facilities.

Mean cost of a first combination antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected patients in France, and determinants of expensive drugs prescription

To estimate the cost of the first combination antiretroviral drug therapy (cART) in HIV-infected patients and to determine factors associated with expensive prescriptions, 1698 patients starting cART between September 2002 and September 2007 were selected from the Dat'AIDS cohort. A multivariate linear regression model was used to assess associations between the cost of first cART and patient characteristics, clinical centre and cART adequacy. At cART initiation, the median age was 39 years, median CD4 count was 223 cells/mm3, median viral load (VL) was 5.2 log copies/mL and 18.3% presented with AIDS. cART was concordant with the French guidelines in 88.7%. The mean cost of cART varied from €26.69/day/person in 2002-2003 to €32.23 in 2006-2007 ( P < 0.0001), cost was associated with previous AIDS diagnosis (€31.83/day/person) versus (29.49; P < 0.0001), baseline VL > 5 log copies/mL (€30.99/day/person) versus (28.33; P < 0.0001) and centre. cART regimen not concordant with guidelines were more expensive (€38.31/day/person) versus (29.07; P < 0.0001). After adjusting for the year of initiation, the previous AIDS diagnosis, VL and recommended cART regimen, differences were still found between centres (from €27.81/day/person) to (33.12; P < 0.0001). Cost should be considered when choosing a first cART regimen, especially when considering clinically equivalent regimens.

Predicted effects of treatment for HCV infection vary among European countries

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The dynamics of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, as well as screening practices and access to therapy, vary among European countries. It is important to determine the magnitude of the effects of such differences on incidence and mortality of infection. We compared the dynamics of infection and screening and treatment practices among Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom. We also assessed the effects of treatment with pegylated interferon and additional effects of triple therapy with protease inhibitors.

METHODS

We created a country-specific Markov model of HCV progression based on published epidemiologic data (on HCV prevalence, screening, genotype, alcohol consumption among patients, and treatments) and reports of competitive and hepatocellular carcinoma mortality for the 6 countries. The model was used to predict the incidence of HCV-related cirrhosis and its mortality until 2021 for each country.

RESULTS

From 2002 to 2011, antiviral therapy reduced the cumulative incidence of cirrhosis by 7.1% and deaths by 3.4% overall. Reductions in incidence and mortality values ranged from 4.0% and 1.9%, respectively, in Italy to 16.3% and 9.0%, respectively, in France. From 2012 to 2021, antiviral treatment of patients with HCV genotype 1 infection that includes protease inhibitor-based triple therapy will reduce the cumulative incidence of cirrhosis by 17.7% and mortality by 9.7% overall. The smallest reduction is predicted for Italy (incidence reduced by 10.1% and mortality by 5.4%) and the highest is for France (reductions of 34.3% and 20.7%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Although HCV infection is treated with the same therapies in different countries, the effects of the therapies on morbidity and mortality vary significantly. In addition to common guidelines that are based on virologic response-guided therapy, there is a need for public health policies based on population-guided therapy.

Immediate vs. delayed treatment in patients with acute hepatitis C based on IL28B polymorphism: a model-based analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Timing of treatment initiation in acute hepatitis C (AHC) patients is unclear. Spontaneous viral clearance argues for a "watch-and-wait" strategy. However, early initiation of treatment could increase the sustained virological response (SVR) rate. We compared three different HCV treatment initiation strategies in patients with AHC according to presence of clinical symptoms and IL28B polymorphism: (1) within 2 months after transmission (immediate initiation), (2) at 3 months (early initiation), and (3) at 4/5 months (delayed initiation).

METHODS

We calculated spontaneous HCV clearance probability based on the symptomatic (sAHC) and asymptomatic (aAHC) nature of disease and C/C or non-C/C genotype. We used different SVR probabilities according to delay between transmission and treatment. We estimated the probability of developing chronic hepatitis C (CHC).

RESULTS

The probability of developing CHC was lower for immediate treatment initiation (7.1% in C/C and 7.3% in non-C/C patients with sAHC; 6.6% in C/C and 7.1% in non-C/C patients with aAHC) than for delayed initiation (13.5% in C/C and 18.0% in non-C/C patients with sAHC; 14.6% in C/C and 18.5% in non-C/C patients with aAHC) regardless of the presence of symptoms or IL28B genotype.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients such as health care workers, in whom HCV is detected ≤ 2 months following transmission, treatment should be immediately initiated regardless of clinical symptoms and IL28B polymorphism. In those in whom HCV is detected>2 months after transmission, treatment 4/5 months after may be preferable because of a higher rate of spontaneous HCV clearance after 2 months and a poor HCV treatment efficacy's differential between months 3 and 4/5.

Impact of hepatitis C triple therapy availability upon the number of patients to be treated and associated costs in France: a model-based analysis

OBJECTIVE

The combination of pegylated interferon (PEG-IFN), ribavirin (RBV) and a protease inhibitor (PI) has been approved in summer 2011 for the treatment of genotype 1 (G1) hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients, with a substantially improved efficacy. The aim of this study was to estimate the number of G1 patients to be treated in France in 2012 and associated costs.

METHODS

A published model of HCV and data on PEG-IFN sales were used to estimate patients needing treatment using three scenarios. (1) HCV screening rate unchanged versus 2010; proportion of treated F0-F1 patients unchanged, proportion of treated F2-F4 patients increased to the current proportion of treated F2-F4 G2/3 patients. (2) Scenario 1 but the proportion of treated F0-F1 patients increased to the current proportion of treated F0-F1 G2/3 patients. (3) Scenario 2 but a 5% increase in the HCV screening rate. To estimate cost, treatment duration was multiplied by drug unit cost. Probabilities corresponding to treatment duration were estimated based on liver fibrosis stage, treatment-naive or experienced status of the patient and virological response kinetics on treatment.

RESULTS

Compared with the 5100 G1 patients treated in 2010, the number of G1 patients receiving treatment in 2012 would be 15,000 in scenario 1, 18,300 in scenario 2 and 19,400 in scenario 3, among whom 2.5-3.7% may receive PEG-IFN/RBV and 96.3-97.5% PEG-IFN/RBV+PI. Costs associated with this regimen use ranged from 497 to 638 million Euros.

CONCLUSION

These model-based estimates indicate that new anti-HCV treatments may result in a three- to fourfold increase in the number of G1 patients to be treated in France in 2012.

Efficacy of new antiretroviral drugs in treatment-experienced HIV-infected patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis of recent randomized controlled trials

OBJECTIVES

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to assess the overall efficacy of new antiretroviral drugs, as well as the factors associated with increased efficacy. We compared CD4 cell count increases associated with chemokine (C-C motif) receptor 5 (CCR5) inhibitors or other new drugs, using indirect comparison.

METHODS

We included RCTs published in 2003-2010 that assessed the 48-week immunological and virological efficacy of adding new antiretroviral drugs vs. placebo to optimized background therapy (OBT) in treatment-experienced subjects. These drugs included maraviroc, vicriviroc, enfuvirtide, raltegravir, etravirine, tipranavir and darunavir. We collected baseline descriptive characteristics, CD4 cell count changes and virological suppression proportions (percentage with HIV RNA <50 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL).

RESULTS

We identified 10 studies which included a total of 6401 patients. New drugs were associated with increased virological suppression (pooled odds ratio 2.97) and larger CD4 count increases (pooled nonstandardized difference 39 cells/μL) compared with placebo. OBT genotypic sensitivity scores (GSSs) were also associated with larger differences in virological suppression (P<0.001 for GSS=0,≤1 and ≤2) and CD4 cell count increase (GSS=0, P<0.001; GSS ≤1, P=0.002; GSS ≤2, P=0.015) between the two groups. CCR5 inhibitors were not associated with significant gains in CD4 cell counts (P=0.22) compared with other new drugs.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study confirmed the overall immunological and virological efficacy of new antiretroviral drugs in treatment-experienced patients, compared with placebo. The main predictive factor for efficacy was the number of fully active drugs. CCR5 inhibitors did not increase CD4 cell count to a greater extent than other new drugs.

Blood-borne viruses in health care workers: prevention and management

Three pathogens account for most cases of occupationally acquired blood-borne infection: hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The highest proportion of occupational transmission is due to percutaneous injury (PI) via hollow-bore needles with vascular access. We briefly review prevention and management of blood-borne pathogens in health care workers (HCWs) in developed countries. HCW compliance with standard precautions is necessary for prevention of PI. Safety-engineered devices are now being increasingly promoted as an approach to decreasing the rate of PI. Prevention of HBV transmission requires HCW immunization through vaccination against HBV. In non-vaccinated HCWs (or HCWs with an unknown antibody response to vaccination) exposed to an HbsAg-positive or an untested source patient, post-exposure prophylaxis with HBV vaccine, hepatitis B immunoglobulin or both must be started as soon as possible. Although no available prophylaxis exists for HCV, it is crucial to identify HCV exposure and infection in health care settings and to consequently propose early treatment when transmission occurs. Following occupational exposure with potential for HIV transmission, use of antiretroviral post-exposure prophylaxis must be evaluated. Patients need to be protected from blood-borne pathogen-infected HCWs, and especially surgeons performing exposure-prone procedures (EPPs) with risk of transmission to the patient. However, HCWs not performing EPPs should be protected from arbitrary administrative decisions that would restrict their practice rights. Finally, it must be emphasized that occupational blood exposure is of great concern in developing countries, with higher risk of exposure to blood-borne viruses because of a higher prevalence of the latter than in developed countries, re-use of needles and syringes and greater risk of sustaining PI, since injection routes are more frequently used for drug administration than in developed countries.

Expected increase in prevalence of HCV-related cirrhosis and its complications in the United States: no effect of current antiviral treatment coverage?

Davis et al. projected the future prevalence of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) and its complications in the United States, using a multicohort natural history model with a tree model. First, the model predicted that in 2010 many patients have already progressed to F4, including to decompensated cirrhosis and HCC. Second, the model emphasized that cirrhosis and its complications are most common after 60 years old, regardless of when the infection occurred. Finally, the model showed that current treatment patterns will have little effect on the incidence of the complications hepatitis C.

Impact of drug stock-outs on death and retention to care among HIV-infected patients on combination antiretroviral therapy in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire

Background

To evaluate the type and frequency of antiretroviral drug stock-outs, and their impact on death and interruption in care among HIV-infected patients in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a cohort study of patients who initiated combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in three adult HIV clinics between February 1, 2006 and June 1, 2007. Follow-up ended on February 1, 2008. The primary outcome was cART regimen modification, defined as at least one drug substitution, or discontinuation for at least one month due to drug stock-outs at the clinic pharmacy. The secondary outcome for patients who were on cART for at least six months was interruption in care, or death. A Cox regression model with time-dependent variables was used to assess the impact of antiretroviral drug stock-outs on interruption in care or death. Overall, 1,554 adults initiated cART and were followed for a mean of 13.2 months. During this time, 72 patients discontinued treatment and 98 modified their regimen because of drug stock-outs. Stock-outs involved nevirapine and fixed-dose combination zidovudine/lamivudine in 27% and 51% of cases. Of 1,554 patients, 839 (54%) initiated cART with fixed-dose stavudine/lamivudine/nevirapine and did not face stock-outs during the study period. Among the 975 patients who were on cART for at least six months, stock-out-related cART discontinuations increased the risk of interruption in care or death (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.83; 95%CI, 1.25–6.44) but cART modifications did not (adjusted HR, 1.21; 95%CI, 0.46–3.16).

Conclusions

cART stock-outs affected at least 11% of population on treatment. Treatment discontinuations due to stock-outs were frequent and doubled the risk of interruption in care or death. These stock-outs did not involve the most common first-line regimen. As access to cART continues to increase in sub-Saharan Africa, first-line regimens should be standardized to decrease the probability of drug stock-outs.

Routine HIV screening in France: clinical impact and cost-effectiveness

BACKGROUND

In France, roughly 40,000 HIV-infected persons are unaware of their HIV infection. Although previous studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of routine HIV screening in the United States, differences in both the epidemiology of infection and HIV testing behaviors warrant a setting-specific analysis for France.

METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We estimated the life expectancy (LE), cost and cost-effectiveness of alternative HIV screening strategies in the French general population and high-risk sub-populations using a computer model of HIV detection and treatment, coupled with French national clinical and economic data. We compared risk-factor-based HIV testing ("current practice") to universal routine, voluntary HIV screening in adults aged 18-69. Screening frequencies ranged from once to annually. Input data included mean age (42 years), undiagnosed HIV prevalence (0.10%), annual HIV incidence (0.01%), test acceptance (79%), linkage to care (75%) and cost/test (€43). We performed sensitivity analyses on HIV prevalence and incidence, cost estimates, and the transmission benefits of ART. "Current practice" produced LEs of 242.82 quality-adjusted life months (QALM) among HIV-infected persons and 268.77 QALM in the general population. Adding a one-time HIV screen increased LE by 0.01 QALM in the general population and increased costs by €50/person, for a cost-effectiveness ratio (CER) of €57,400 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). More frequent screening in the general population increased survival, costs and CERs. Among injection drug users (prevalence 6.17%; incidence 0.17%/year) and in French Guyana (prevalence 0.41%; incidence 0.35%/year), annual screening compared to every five years produced CERs of €51,200 and €46,500/QALY.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

One-time routine HIV screening in France improves survival compared to "current practice" and compares favorably to other screening interventions recommended in Western Europe. In higher-risk groups, more frequent screening is economically justifiable.