Climate Spaces and Cliffs: A Novel Bovine Thermodynamic and Mass Balances Model

The effects of climate change on animals are typically viewed in terms of survivability and wellbeing. In this study, we broaden that purview to include climate impacts on reproductive capability. There are not only climate spaces for daily function, but climate cliffs that represent reproductive failures in the face of climate warming. This alternative focus suggests that climate warming challenges may be more immediate and profound than initially imagined. This research describes a state-of-the-art mechanistic model, Dairy Niche Mapper (DNM), and independent validation tests. Where test data are absent, the calculated results are consistent with expected responses. Simulations of metabolic chamber conditions reveal the local steady-state impacts of climate and animal variables on milk production capacity, metabolic rate, food consumption and water needs. Simulations of a temperature humidity index (THI) show strengths and limitations of that approach. Broader time- and spatial-scale calculations applied in the western and eastern halves of the northern hemisphere identify current and future monthly latitudinal climate change impacts on milk production potential, feed and water needs in dairy cows of different sizes. Dairy Niche Mapper (DNM) was developed from a broadly tested mechanistic microclimate-animal model, Niche Mapper (NM). DNM provides an improved quantitative understanding of the complex nonlinear interactions of climate variation and dairy bovine properties' effects on current and future milk production, feed and water needs for grazing and confinement dairy operations. DNM outputs include feasible activity times, milk production and water and feed needs of different-sized Holstein cows on high-grain (confinement feeding) versus high-forage (grazing feeding) diets at three arbitrary north latitudes, 12°, 30° and 60°, for North and Central America and for Asia. These three latitudes encompass current northern hemisphere bovine production environments and possible future production locations. The greatest impacts of climate change will be in the low elevations in tropical and subtropical regions. Global regions above 30° and below 60° latitude with reliable rainfall will be least affected by current projected levels of climate change. This work provides the basis for computational animal design for guiding agricultural development via breeding programs, genetic engineering, management options including siting or the manipulation of other relevant environmental and animal variables.

Incorporating species-specific morphology improves model predictions of thermal and hydric stress in the sand fiddler crab, Leptuca pugilator

Understanding where and why organisms are experiencing thermal and hydric stress is critical for predicting species' responses to climate change. Biophysical models that explicitly link organismal functional traits like morphology, physiology, and behavior to environmental conditions can provide valuable insight into determinants of thermal and hydric stress. Here we use a combination of direct measurements, 3D modeling, and computational fluid dynamics to develop a detailed biophysical model of the sand fiddler crab, Leptuca pugilator. We compare the detailed model's performance to a model using a simpler ellipsoidal approximation of a crab. The detailed model predicted crab body temperatures within 1 °C of observed in both laboratory and field settings; the ellipsoidal approximation model predicted body temperatures within 2 °C of observed body temperatures. Model predictions are meaningfully improved through efforts to incorporate species-specific morphological properties rather than relying on simple geometric approximations. Experimental evaporative water loss (EWL) measurements indicate that L. pugilator can modify its permeability to EWL as a function of vapor density gradients, providing novel insight into physiological thermoregulation in the species. Body temperature and EWL predictions made over the course of a year at a single site demonstrate how such biophysical models can be used to explore mechanistic drivers and spatiotemporal patterns of thermal and hydric stress, providing insight into current and future distributions in the face of climate change.

Behavioural responses of a large, heat-sensitive mammal to climatic variation at multiple spatial scales

Climate warming creates energetic challenges for endothermic species by increasing metabolic and hydric costs of thermoregulation. Although endotherms can invoke an array of behavioural and physiological strategies for maintaining homeostasis, the relative effectiveness of those strategies in a climate that is becoming both warmer and drier is not well understood. In accordance with the heat dissipation limit theory which suggests that allocation of energy to growth and reproduction by endotherms is constrained by the ability to dissipate heat, we expected that patterns of habitat use by large, heat-sensitive mammals across multiple scales are critical for behavioural thermoregulation during periods of potential heat stress and that they must invest a large portion of time to maintain heat balance. To test our predictions, we evaluated mechanisms underpinning the effectiveness of bed sites for ameliorating daytime heat loads and potential heat stress across the landscape while accounting for other factors known to affect behaviour. We integrated detailed data on microclimate and animal attributes of moose Alces alces, into a biophysical model to quantify costs of thermoregulation at fine and coarse spatial scales. During summer, moose spent an average of 67.8% of daylight hours bedded, and selected bed sites and home ranges that reduced risk of experiencing heat stress. For most of the day, shade could effectively mitigate the risk of experiencing heat stress up to 10°C, but at warmer temperatures (up to 20°C) wet soil was necessary to maintain homeostasis via conductive heat loss. Consistent selection across spatial scales for locations that reduced heat load underscores the importance of the thermal environment as a driver of behaviour in this heat-sensitive mammal. Moose in North America have long been characterized as riparian-obligate species because of their dependence on woody plant species for food. Nevertheless, the importance of dissipating endogenous heat loads conductively through wet soil suggests riparian habitats also are critical thermal refuges for moose. Such refuges may be especially important in the face of a warming climate in which both high environmental temperatures and drier conditions will likely exacerbate limits to heat dissipation, especially for large, heat-sensitive animals.

Field data confirm the ability of a biophysical model to predict wild primate body temperature

In the face of climate change there is an urgent need to understand how animal performance is affected by environmental conditions. Biophysical models that use principles of heat and mass transfer can be used to explore how an animal's morphology, physiology, and behavior interact with its environment in terms of energy, mass and water balances to affect fitness and performance. We used Niche Mapper™ (NM) to build a vervet monkey (Chlorocebus pygerythrus) biophysical model and tested the model's ability to predict core body temperature (T_b) variation and thermal stress against T_b and behavioral data collected from wild vervets in South Africa. The mean observed T_b in both males and females was within 0.5 °C of NM's predicted T_bs for 91% of hours over the five-year study period. This is the first time that NM's T_b predictions have been validated against field data from a wild endotherm. Overall, these results provide confidence that NM can accurately predict thermal stress and can be used to provide insight into the thermoregulatory consequences of morphological (e.g., body size, shape, fur depth), physiological (e.g. T_b plasticity) and behavioral (e.g., huddling, resting, shade seeking) adaptations. Such an approach allows users to test hypotheses about how animals adapt to thermoregulatory challenges and make informed predictions about potential responses to environmental change such as climate change or habitat conversion. Importantly, NM's animal submodel is a general model that can be adapted to other species, requiring only basic information on an animal's morphology, physiology and behavior.

Predictions of Disease Risk in Space and Time Based on the Thermal Physiology of an Amphibian Host-Pathogen Interaction

Emerging infectious diseases have been responsible for declines and extinctions in a growing number of species. Predicting disease variables like infection prevalence and mortality and how they vary in space and time will be critical to understanding how host-pathogen dynamics play out in natural environments and will help to inform management actions. The pandemic disease chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), has been implicated in declines in hundreds of amphibian species worldwide. We used field-collected measurements of host body temperatures and other physiological parameters to develop a mechanistic model of disease risk in a declining amphibian, the Northern cricket frog (Acris crepitans). We first used a biophysical model to predict host body temperatures across the species range in the eastern United States. We then used empirically derived relationships between host body temperature, infection prevalence and survival to predict where and when the risk of Bd-related declines is greatest. Our model predicts that pathogen prevalence is greatest, and survival of infected A. crepitans frogs is lowest, just prior to breeding when host body temperatures are low. Taken together, these results suggest that Bd poses the greatest threat to short-lived A. crepitans populations in the northern part of this host’s range and that disease-related recruitment failure may be common. Furthermore, our study demonstrates the utility of mechanistic modeling approaches for predicting disease outbreaks and dynamics in animal hosts.

Future winters present a complex energetic landscape of decreased costs and reduced risk for a freeze-tolerant amphibian, the Wood Frog (Lithobates sylvaticus)

Winter climate warming is rapidly leading to changes in snow depth and soil temperatures across mid- and high-latitude ecosystems, with important implications for survival and distribution of species that overwinter beneath the snow. Amphibians are a particularly vulnerable group to winter climate change because of the tight coupling between their body temperature and metabolic rate. Here, we used a mechanistic microclimate model coupled to an animal biophysics model to predict the spatially explicit effects of future climate change on the wintering energetics of a freeze-tolerant amphibian, the Wood Frog (Lithobates sylvaticus), across its distributional range in the eastern United States. Our below-the-snow microclimate simulations were driven by dynamically downscaled climate projections from a regional climate model coupled to a one-dimensional model of the Laurentian Great Lakes. We found that warming soil temperatures and decreasing winter length have opposing effects on Wood Frog winter energy requirements, leading to geographically heterogeneous implications for Wood Frogs. While energy expenditures and peak body ice content were predicted to decline in Wood Frogs across most of our study region, we identified an area of heightened energetic risk in the northwestern part of the Great Lakes region where energy requirements were predicted to increase. Because Wood Frogs rely on body stores acquired in fall to fuel winter survival and spring breeding, increased winter energy requirements have the potential to impact local survival and reproduction. Given the geographically variable and intertwined drivers of future under-snow conditions (e.g., declining snow depths, rising air temperatures, shortening winters), spatially explicit assessments of species energetics and risk will be important to understanding the vulnerability of subnivium-adapted species.

Infrared thermography cannot be used to approximate core body temperature in wild primates

Understanding the physiological processes that underpin primate performance is key if we are to assess how a primate might respond when navigating new and changing environments. Given the connection between a mammal's ability to thermoregulate and the changing demands of its thermal environment, increasing attention is being devoted to the study of thermoregulatory processes as a means to assess primate performance. Infrared thermography can be used to record the body surface temperatures of free-ranging animals. However, some uncertainty remains as to how these measurements can be used to approximate core body temperature. Here, we use data collected from wild vervet monkeys (Chlorocebus pygerythrus) to examine the relationship between infrared body surface temperature, core body (intra-abdominal) temperature, and local climate, to determine to what extent surface temperatures reflect core body temperature. While we report a positive association between surface and core body temperature-a finding that has previously been used to justify the use of surface temperature measurements as a proxy for core temperature regulation-when we controlled for the effect of the local climate in our analyses, this relationship was no longer observed. That is, body surface temperatures were solely predicted by local climate, and not core body temperatures, suggesting that surface temperatures tell us more about the environment a primate is in, and less about the thermal status of its body core in that environment. Despite the advantages of a noninvasive means to detect and record animal temperatures, infrared thermography alone cannot be used to approximate core body temperature in wild primates.

Modeling Dragons: Using linked mechanistic physiological and microclimate models to explore environmental, physiological, and morphological constraints on the early evolution of dinosaurs

We employed the widely-tested biophysiological modeling software, Niche Mapper™ to investigate the metabolic function of the Late Triassic dinosaurs Plateosaurus and Coelophysis during global greenhouse conditions. We tested a variety of assumptions about resting metabolic rate, each evaluated within six microclimate models that bound paleoenvironmental conditions at 12° N paleolatitude, as determined by sedimentological and isotopic proxies for climate within the Chinle Formation of the southwestern United States. Sensitivity testing of metabolic variables and simulated “metabolic chamber” analyses support elevated “ratite-like” metabolic rates and intermediate “monotreme-like” core temperature ranges in these species of early saurischian dinosaur. Our results suggest small theropods may have needed partial to full epidermal insulation in temperate environments, while fully grown prosauropods would have likely been heat stressed in open, hot environments and should have been restricted to cooler microclimates such as dense forests or higher latitudes and elevations. This is in agreement with the Late Triassic fossil record and may have contributed to the latitudinal gap in the Triassic prosauropod record.

Evaporative cooling provides a major metabolic energy sink

Objective

Elimination of food calories as heat could help redress the excess accumulation of metabolic energy exhibited as obesity. Prior studies have focused on the induction of thermogenesis in beige and brown adipose tissues as the application of this principle, particularly because the β-adrenergic environment associated with thermogenic activation has been shown to have positive health implications. The counterpoint to this strategy is the regulation of heat loss; we propose that mammals with inefficient heat conservation will require more thermogenesis to maintain body temperature.

Methods

Surface temperature thermography and rates of trans-epidermal water loss were integrated to profile the total heat transfer of genetically-engineered and genetically variable mice.

Results

These data were incorporated with energy expenditure data to generate a biophysical profile to test the significance of increased rates of evaporative cooling.

Conclusions

We show that mouse skins vary considerably in their heat retention properties, whether because of naturally occurring variation (SKH-1 mice), or genetic modification of the heat-retaining lipid lamellae (SCD1, DGAT1 or Agouti A^y obese mice). In particular, we turn attention to widely different rates of evaporative cooling as the result of trans-epidermal water loss; higher rates of heat loss by evaporative cooling leads to increased demand for thermogenesis. We speculate that this physiology could be harnessed to create an energy sink to assist with strategies aimed at treating metabolic diseases.

Shifts in metabolic fuel use coincide with maximal rates of ventilation and body surface rewarming in an arousing hibernator

It is well established that hibernating mammals rely predominantly on lipid stores to fuel metabolism throughout the hibernation season. However, it is unclear if other endogenous fuels contribute to the rapid, ~400-fold increase in metabolic rate during the early phase of arousal from torpor. To investigate this issue, we used cavity ring-down spectroscopy, a technique that provides a real-time indication of fuel use by measuring the ratio of ¹³C to ¹²C in the exhaled CO₂ of arousing 13-lined ground squirrels (Ictidomys tridecemlineatus). We used infrared thermography to simultaneously measure ventilation and surface temperature change in various body regions, and we interpreted these data in light of changing plasma metabolite abundances at multiple stages of arousal from torpor. We found that hibernating squirrels use a combination of lipids and, likely, carbohydrates to fuel the initial ~60 min of arousal before switching to predominantly lipid oxidation. This fuel switch coincided with times of maximal rates of ventilation and rewarming of different body surface regions, including brown adipose tissue. Infrared thermography revealed zonal rewarming, whereby the brown adipose tissue region was the first to warm, followed by the thoracic and head regions and, finally, the posterior half of the body. Consistent with the results from cavity ring-down spectroscopy, plasma metabolite dynamics during early arousal suggested a large reliance on fatty acids, with a contribution from carbohydrates and glycerol. Because of their high oxidative flux rates and efficient O₂ use, carbohydrates might be an advantageous metabolic fuel during the early phase of arousal, when metabolic demands are high but ventilation rates and, thus, O₂ supply are relatively low.

Experimental and modeled thermoregulatory costs of repeated sublethal oil exposure in the Double-crested Cormorant, Phalacrocorax auritus

To fully understand the impact of oil exposure, it is important to understand sublethal effects like how increased thermoregulatory costs may affect survival and reproduction. However, it is difficult and time-consuming to measure these effects in wild animals. We present a novel use of a bioenergetics model, Niche Mapper™, to estimate thermoregulatory impacts of oiling, using data from captive Double-crested Cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus) experimentally exposed to oil. Oiled cormorants had significant increases in surface body temperatures following exposure. Niche Mapper accurately predicted surface temperatures and metabolic rates for unoiled and oiled cormorants and predicted 13-18% increased daily energetic demands due to increased thermoregulatory costs of oiling, consistent with increased food consumption observed in experimentally oiled cormorants. We show that Niche Mapper can provide valuable insight into sublethal oiling effects by quantifying the extent to which thermoregulatory costs divert energy resources away from important life processes like maintenance, reproduction and migration.

Reflection of near-infrared light confers thermal protection in birds

Biologists have focused their attention on the optical functions of light reflected at ultraviolet and human-visible wavelengths. However, most radiant energy in sunlight occurs in 'unseen' near-infrared (NIR) wavelengths. The capacity to reflect solar radiation at NIR wavelengths may enable animals to control heat gain and remain within their critical thermal limits. Here, using a continent-wide phylogenetic analysis of Australian birds, we show that species occupying hot, arid environments reflect more radiant energy in NIR wavelengths than species in thermally benign environments, even when controlling for variation in visible colour. Biophysical models confirm that smaller species gain a greater advantage from high NIR reflectivity in hot, arid environments, reducing water loss from compensatory evaporative cooling by up to 2% body mass per hour. These results highlight the importance of NIR reflectivity for thermal protection, which may become increasingly critical as the frequency of extreme climatic events increases.

An ecophysiological perspective on likely giant panda habitat responses to climate change

Threatened and endangered species are more vulnerable to climate change due to small population and specific geographical distribution. Therefore, identifying and incorporating the biological processes underlying a species' adaptation to its environment are important for determining whether they can persist in situ. Correlative models are widely used to predict species' distribution changes, but generally fail to capture the buffering capacity of organisms. Giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) live in topographically complex mountains and are known to avoid heat stress. Although many studies have found that climate change will lead to severe habitat loss and threaten previous conservation efforts, the mechanisms underlying panda's responses to climate change have not been explored. Here, we present a case study in Daxiangling Mountains, one of the six Mountain Systems that giant panda distributes. We used a mechanistic model, Niche Mapper, to explore what are likely panda habitat response to climate change taking physiological, behavioral and ecological responses into account, through which we map panda's climatic suitable activity area (SAA) for the first time. We combined SAA with bamboo forest distribution to yield highly suitable habitat (HSH) and seasonal suitable habitat (SSH), and their temporal dynamics under climate change were predicted. In general, SAA in the hottest month (July) would reduce 11.7%-52.2% by 2070, which is more moderate than predicted bamboo habitat loss (45.6%-86.9%). Limited by the availability of bamboo and forest, panda's suitable habitat loss increases, and only 15.5%-68.8% of current HSH would remain in 2070. Our method of mechanistic modeling can help to distinguish whether habitat loss is caused by thermal environmental deterioration or food loss under climate change. Furthermore, mechanistic models can produce robust predictions by incorporating ecophysiological feedbacks and minimizing extrapolation into novel environments. We suggest that a mechanistic approach should be incorporated into distribution predictions and conservation planning.

Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: the American pika under current, past, and future climates

How climate constrains species' distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8-19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3-5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect: climate-imposed restrictions on activity. This more complete understanding is necessary to inform climate adaptation actions, management strategies, and conservation plans.

Foraging Activity Pattern Is Shaped by Water Loss Rates in a Diurnal Desert Rodent

Although animals fine-tune their activity to avoid excess heat, we still lack a mechanistic understanding of such behaviors. As the global climate changes, such understanding is particularly important for projecting shifts in the activity patterns of populations and communities. We studied how foraging decisions vary with biotic and abiotic pressures. By tracking the foraging behavior of diurnal desert spiny mice in their natural habitat and estimating the energy and water costs and benefits of foraging, we asked how risk management and thermoregulatory requirements affect foraging decisions. We found that water requirements had the strongest effect on the observed foraging decisions. In their arid environment, mice often lose water while foraging for seeds and cease foraging even at high energetic returns when water loss is high. Mice also foraged more often when energy expenditure was high and for longer times under high seed densities and low predation risks. Gaining insight into both energy and water balance will be crucial to understanding the forces exerted by changing climatic conditions on animal energetics, behavior, and ecology.

Colour change on different body regions provides thermal and signalling advantages in bearded dragon lizards

Many terrestrial ectotherms are capable of rapid colour change, yet it is unclear how these animals accommodate the multiple functions of colour, particularly camouflage, communication and thermoregulation, especially when functions require very different colours. Thermal benefits of colour change depend on an animal's absorptance of solar energy in both UV–visible (300–700 nm) and near-infrared (NIR; 700–2600 nm) wavelengths, yet colour research has focused almost exclusively on the former. Here, we show that wild-caught bearded dragon lizards (Pogona vitticeps ) exhibit substantial UV–visible and NIR skin reflectance change in response to temperature for dorsal but not ventral (throat and upper chest) body regions. By contrast, lizards showed the greatest temperature-independent colour change on the beard and upper chest during social interactions and as a result of circadian colour change. Biophysical simulations of heat transfer predicted that the maximum temperature-dependent change in dorsal reflectivity could reduce the time taken to reach active body temperature by an average of 22 min per active day, saving 85 h of basking time throughout the activity season. Our results confirm that colour change may serve a thermoregulatory function, and competing thermoregulation and signalling requirements may be met by partitioning colour change to different body regions in different circumstances.

Linking habitat selection to fitness-related traits in herbivores: the role of the energy landscape

Animals may partially overcome environmental constraints on fitness by behaviorally adjusting their exposure to costs and supplies of energy. Few studies, however, have linked spatiotemporal variation in the energy landscape to behaviorally mediated measures of performance that ostensibly influence individual fitness. We hypothesized that strength of selection by North American elk (Cervus elaphus) for areas that reduced costs of thermoregulation and activity, and increased access to high-quality forage, would influence four energetically mediated traits related to fitness: birth mass of young, nutritional condition of adult females at the onset of winter, change in nutritional condition of females between spring and winter, and neonatal survival. We used a biophysical model to map spatiotemporally explicit costs of thermoregulation and activity experienced by elk in a heterogeneous landscape. We then combined model predictions with data on forage characteristics, animal locations, nutritional condition, and mass and survival of young to evaluate behaviorally mediated effects of the energy landscape on fitness-related traits. During spring, when high-quality forage was abundant, female elk that consistently selected low-cost areas before parturition gave birth to larger young than less-selective individuals, and birth mass had a strong, positive influence on probability of survival. As forage quality declined during autumn, however, lactating females that consistently selected the highest quality forage available accrued more fat and entered winter in better condition than less-selective individuals. Results of our study highlight the importance of understanding the dynamic nature of energy landscapes experienced by free-ranging animals.

Modeling behavioral thermoregulation in a climate change sentinel

When possible, many species will shift in elevation or latitude in response to rising temperatures. However, before such shifts occur, individuals will first tolerate environmental change and then modify their behavior to maintain heat balance. Behavioral thermoregulation allows animals a range of climatic tolerances and makes predicting geographic responses under future warming scenarios challenging. Because behavioral modification may reduce an individual's fecundity by, for example, limiting foraging time and thus caloric intake, we must consider the range of behavioral options available for thermoregulation to accurately predict climate change impacts on individual species. To date, few studies have identified mechanistic links between an organism's daily activities and the need to thermoregulate. We used a biophysical model, Niche Mapper, to mechanistically model microclimate conditions and thermoregulatory behavior for a temperature‐sensitive mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps). Niche Mapper accurately simulated microclimate conditions, as well as empirical metabolic chamber data for a range of fur properties, animal sizes, and environmental parameters. Niche Mapper predicted pikas would be behaviorally constrained because of the need to thermoregulate during the hottest times of the day. We also showed that pikas at low elevations could receive energetic benefits by being smaller in size and maintaining summer pelage during longer stretches of the active season under a future warming scenario. We observed pika behavior for 288 h in Glacier National Park, Montana, and thermally characterized their rocky, montane environment. We found that pikas were most active when temperatures were cooler, and at sites characterized by high elevations and north‐facing slopes. Pikas became significantly less active across a suite of behaviors in the field when temperatures surpassed 20°C, which supported a metabolic threshold predicted by Niche Mapper. In general, mechanistic predictions and empirical observations were congruent. This research is unique in providing both an empirical and mechanistic description of the effects of temperature on a mammalian sentinel of climate change, the American pika. Our results suggest that previously underinvestigated characteristics, specifically fur properties and body size, may play critical roles in pika populations' response to climate change. We also demonstrate the potential importance of considering behavioral thermoregulation and microclimate variability when predicting animal responses to climate change.

Validation of a Mechanistic Model for Non-Invasive Study of Ecological Energetics in an Endangered Wading Bird with Counter-Current Heat Exchange in its Legs

Mechanistic models provide a powerful, minimally invasive tool for gaining a deeper understanding of the ecology of animals across geographic space and time. In this paper, we modified and validated the accuracy of the mechanistic model Niche Mapper for simulating heat exchanges of animals with counter-current heat exchange mechanisms in their legs and animals that wade in water. We then used Niche Mapper to explore the effects of wading and counter-current heat exchange on the energy expenditures of Whooping Cranes, a long-legged wading bird. We validated model accuracy against the energy expenditure of two captive Whooping Cranes measured using the doubly-labeled water method and time energy budgets. Energy expenditure values modeled by Niche Mapper were similar to values measured by the doubly-labeled water method and values estimated from time-energy budgets. Future studies will be able to use Niche Mapper as a non-invasive tool to explore energy-based limits to the fundamental niche of Whooping Cranes and apply this knowledge to management decisions. Basic questions about the importance of counter-current exchange and wading to animal physiological tolerances can also now be explored with the model.

NMR Metabolomics Show Evidence for Mitochondrial Oxidative Stress in a Mouse Model of Polycystic Ovary Syndrome

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is associated with metabolic and endocrine disorders in women of reproductive age. The etiology of PCOS is still unknown. Mice prenatally treated with glucocorticoids exhibit metabolic disturbances that are similar to those seen in women with PCOS. We used an untargeted nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR)-based metabolomics approach to understand the metabolic changes occurring in the plasma and kidney over time in female glucocorticoid-treated (GC-treated) mice. There are significant changes in plasma amino acid levels (valine, tyrosine, and proline) and their intermediates (2-hydroxybutyrate, 4-aminobutyrate, and taurine), whereas in kidneys, the TCA cycle metabolism (citrate, fumarate, and succinate) and the pentose phosphate (PP) pathway products (inosine and uracil) are significantly altered (p < 0.05) from 8 to 16 weeks of age. Levels of NADH, NAD(+), NAD(+)/NADH, and NADH redox in kidneys indicate increased mitochondrial oxidative stress from 8 to 16 weeks in GC-treated mice. These results indicate that altered metabolic substrates in the plasma and kidneys of treated mice are associated with altered amino acid metabolism, increased cytoplasmic PP, and increased mitochondrial activity, leading to a more oxidized state. This study identifies biomarkers associated with metabolic dysfunction in kidney mitochondria of a prenatal gluococorticoid-treated mouse model of PCOS that may be used as early predictive biomarkers of oxidative stress in the PCOS metabolic disorder in women.

Tree-hugging koalas demonstrate a novel thermoregulatory mechanism for arboreal mammals

How climate impacts organisms depends not only on their physiology, but also whether they can buffer themselves against climate variability via their behaviour. One of the way species can withstand hot temperatures is by seeking out cool microclimates, but only if their habitat provides such refugia. Here, we describe a novel thermoregulatory strategy in an arboreal mammal, the koala Phascolarctos cinereus. During hot weather, koalas enhanced conductive heat loss by seeking out and resting against tree trunks that were substantially cooler than ambient air temperature. Using a biophysical model of heat exchange, we show that this behaviour greatly reduces the amount of heat that must be lost via evaporative cooling, potentially increasing koala survival during extreme heat events. While it has long been known that internal temperatures of trees differ from ambient air temperatures, the relevance of this for arboreal and semi-arboreal mammals has not previously been explored. Our results highlight the important role of tree trunks as aboveground 'heat sinks', providing cool local microenvironments not only for koalas, but also for all tree-dwelling species.

Leatherbacks swimming in silico: modeling and verifying their momentum and heat balance using computational fluid dynamics

As global temperatures increase throughout the coming decades, species ranges will shift. New combinations of abiotic conditions will make predicting these range shifts difficult. Biophysical mechanistic niche modeling places bounds on an animal’s niche through analyzing the animal’s physical interactions with the environment. Biophysical mechanistic niche modeling is flexible enough to accommodate these new combinations of abiotic conditions. However, this approach is difficult to implement for aquatic species because of complex interactions among thrust, metabolic rate and heat transfer. We use contemporary computational fluid dynamic techniques to overcome these difficulties. We model the complex 3D motion of a swimming neonate and juvenile leatherback sea turtle to find power and heat transfer rates during the stroke. We combine the results from these simulations and a numerical model to accurately predict the core temperature of a swimming leatherback. These results are the first steps in developing a highly accurate mechanistic niche model, which can assists paleontologist in understanding biogeographic shifts as well as aid contemporary species managers about potential range shifts over the coming decades.

Microclim: Global estimates of hourly microclimate based on long-term monthly climate averages

The mechanistic links between climate and the environmental sensitivities of organisms occur through the microclimatic conditions that organisms experience. Here we present a dataset of gridded hourly estimates of typical microclimatic conditions (air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, solar radiation, sky radiation and substrate temperatures from the surface to 1 m depth) at high resolution (~15 km) for the globe. The estimates are for the middle day of each month, based on long-term average macroclimates, and include six shade levels and three generic substrates (soil, rock and sand) per pixel. These data are suitable for deriving biophysical estimates of the heat, water and activity budgets of terrestrial organisms.

First satellite tracks of neonate sea turtles redefine the 'lost years' oceanic niche

Few at-sea behavioural data exist for oceanic-stage neonate sea turtles, a life-stage commonly referred to as the sea turtle 'lost years'. Historically, the long-term tracking of small, fast-growing organisms in the open ocean was logistically or technologically impossible. Here, we provide the first long-term satellite tracks of neonate sea turtles. Loggerheads (Caretta caretta) were remotely tracked in the Atlantic Ocean using small solar-powered satellite transmitters. We show that oceanic-stage turtles (i) rarely travel in Continental Shelf waters, (ii) frequently depart the currents associated with the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre, (iii) travel quickly when in Gyre currents, and (iv) select sea surface habitats that are likely to provide a thermal benefit or refuge to young sea turtles, supporting growth, foraging and survival. Our satellite tracks help define Atlantic loggerhead nursery grounds and early loggerhead habitat use, allowing us to re-examine sea turtle 'lost years' paradigms.

Metabolic Evidence of Diminished Lipid Oxidation in Women With Polycystic Ovary Syndrome

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), a common female endocrinopathy, is a complex metabolic syndrome of enhanced weight gain. The goal of this pilot study was to evaluate metabolic differences between normal (n=10) and PCOS (n=10) women via breath carbon isotope ratio, urinary nitrogen and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR)-determined serum metabolites. Breath carbon stable isotopes measured by cavity ring down spectroscopy (CRDS) indicated diminished (p<0.030) lipid use as a metabolic substrate during overnight fasting in PCOS compared to normal women. Accompanying urinary analyses showed a trending correlation (p<0.057) between overnight total nitrogen and circulating testosterone in PCOS women, alone. Serum analyzed by NMR spectroscopy following overnight, fast and at 2 h following an oral glucose tolerance test showed that a transient elevation in blood glucose levels decreased circulating levels of lipid, glucose and amino acid metabolic intermediates (acetone, 2-oxocaporate, 2-aminobutyrate, pyruvate, formate, and sarcosine) in PCOS women, whereas the 2 h glucose challenge led to increases in the same intermediates in normal women. These pilot data suggest that PCOS-related inflexibility in fasting-related switching between lipid and carbohydrate/protein utilization for carbon metabolism may contribute to enhanced weight gain.

Breath carbon stable isotope ratios identify changes in energy balance and substrate utilization in humans

Rapid detection of shifts in substrate utilization and energy balance would provide a compelling biofeedback tool for individuals attempting weight loss. As a proof of concept, we tested whether the natural abundance of exhaled carbon stable isotope ratios (breath δ(13)C) reflects shifts between negative and positive energy balance. Volunteers (n=5) consumed a 40% energy-restricted diet for 6 days followed by 50% excess on day 7. Breath was sampled immediately before and 1 h and 2 h after breakfast, lunch and dinner. Exhaled breath δ(13)C values were measured by cavity ring-down spectroscopy. Using repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) followed by Dunnett's contrasts, pre-breakfast breath values on days 2-6 were compared with day 1, and postprandial day 7 time points were compared with pre-breakfast day 7. Energy restriction diminished pre-breakfast breath δ(13)C by day 3 (P<0.05). On day 7, increased energy intake was first detected immediately before dinner (-23.8±0.6 vs -21.9±0.7‰, P=0.002 (means±s.d.)), and breath δ(13)C remained elevated at least 2 h post dinner. In conclusion, when shifting between negative and positive energy balance, breath δ(13)C showed anticipated isotopic changes. Although additional research is needed to determine specificity and repeatability, this method may provide a biomarker for marked increases in caloric intake.

Simulating polar bear energetics during a seasonal fast using a mechanistic model

In this study we tested the ability of a mechanistic model (Niche Mapper™) to accurately model adult, non-denning polar bear (Ursus maritimus) energetics while fasting during the ice-free season in the western Hudson Bay. The model uses a steady state heat balance approach, which calculates the metabolic rate that will allow an animal to maintain its core temperature in its particular microclimate conditions. Predicted weight loss for a 120 day fast typical of the 1990s was comparable to empirical studies of the population, and the model was able to reach a heat balance at the target metabolic rate for the entire fast, supporting use of the model to explore the impacts of climate change on polar bears. Niche Mapper predicted that all but the poorest condition bears would survive a 120 day fast under current climate conditions. When the fast extended to 180 days, Niche Mapper predicted mortality of up to 18% for males. Our results illustrate how environmental conditions, variation in animal properties, and thermoregulation processes may impact survival during extended fasts because polar bears were predicted to require additional energetic expenditure for thermoregulation during a 180 day fast. A uniform 3°C temperature increase reduced male mortality during a 180 day fast from 18% to 15%. Niche Mapper explicitly links an animal’s energetics to environmental conditions and thus can be a valuable tool to help inform predictions of climate-related population changes. Since Niche Mapper is a generic model, it can make energetic predictions for other species threatened by climate change.

Consider a non-spherical elephant: computational fluid dynamics simulations of heat transfer coefficients and drag verified using wind tunnel experiments

Animal momentum and heat transfer analysis has historically used direct animal measurements or approximations to calculate drag and heat transfer coefficients. Research can now use modern 3D rendering and computational fluid dynamics software to simulate animal-fluid interactions. Key questions are the level of agreement between simulations and experiments and how superior they are to classical approximations. In this paper we compared experimental and simulated heat transfer and drag calculations on a scale model solid aluminum African elephant casting. We found good agreement between experimental and simulated data and large differences from classical approximations. We used the simulation results to calculate coefficients for heat transfer and drag of the elephant geometry.

Linking Eco-Energetics and Eco-Hydrology to Select Sites for the Assisted Colonization of Australia's Rarest Reptile

Assisted colonization-the deliberate translocation of species from unsuitable to suitable regions-is a controversial management tool that aims to prevent the extinction of populations that are unable to migrate in response to climate change or to survive in situ. The identification of suitable translocation sites is therefore a pressing issue. Correlative species distribution models, which are based on occurrence data, are of limited use for site selection for species with historically restricted distributions. In contrast, mechanistic species distribution models hold considerable promise in selecting translocation sites. Here we integrate ecoenergetic and hydrological models to assess the longer-term suitability of the current habitat of one of the world's rarest chelonians, the Critically Endangered Western Swamp Tortoise (Psuedemydura umbrina). Our coupled model allows us to understand the interaction between thermal and hydric constraints on the foraging window of tortoises, based on hydrological projections of its current habitat. The process can then be repeated across a range of future climates to identify regions that would fall within the tortoise's thermodynamic niche. The predictions indicate that climate change will result in reduced hydroperiods for the tortoises. However, under some climate change scenarios, habitat suitability may remain stable or even improve due to increases in the heat budget. We discuss how our predictions can be integrated with energy budget models that can capture the consequences of these biophysical constraints on growth, reproduction and body condition.

Novel diagnostics of metabolic dysfunction detected in breath and plasma by selective isotope-assisted labeling

Metabolomics is the study of a unique fingerprint of small molecules present in biological systems under healthy and disease conditions. One of the major challenges in metabolomics is validation of fingerprint molecules to identify specifically perturbed pathways in metabolic aberrations. This step is crucial to the understanding of budding metabolic pathologies and the ability to identify early indicators of common diseases such as obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus, metabolic syndrome, polycystic ovary syndrome, and cancer. We present a novel approach to diagnosing aberrations in glucose utilization including metabolic pathway switching in a disease state. We used a well-defined prenatally exposed glucocorticoid mouse model that results in adult females with metabolic dysfunction. We applied the complementary technologies of nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and cavity ring-down spectroscopy to analyze serial plasma samples and real-time breath measurements following selective (13)C-isotope-assisted labeling. These platforms allowed us to trace metabolic markers in whole animals and identify key metabolic pathway switching in prenatally glucocorticoid-treated animals. Total glucose flux is significantly proportionally increased through the major oxidative pathways of glycolysis and the pentose phosphate pathway in the prenatally glucocorticoid-treated animals relative to the control animals. This novel diagnostics approach is fast, noninvasive, and sensitive for determining specific pathway utilization, and provides a direct translational application in the health care field.

Early emergence in a butterfly causally linked to anthropogenic warming

There is strong correlative evidence that human-induced climate warming is contributing to changes in the timing of natural events. Firm attribution, however, requires cause-and-effect links between observed climate change and altered phenology, together with statistical confidence that observed regional climate change is anthropogenic. We provide evidence for phenological shifts in the butterfly Heteronympha merope in response to regional warming in the southeast Australian city of Melbourne. The mean emergence date for H. merope has shifted -1.5 days per decade over a 65-year period with a concurrent increase in local air temperatures of approximately 0.16°C per decade. We used a physiologically based model of climatic influences on development, together with statistical analyses of climate data and global climate model projections, to attribute the response of H. merope to anthropogenic warming. Such mechanistic analyses of phenological responses to climate improve our ability to forecast future climate change impacts on biodiversity.

The feeding ecology of little auks raises questions about winter zooplankton stocks in North Atlantic surface waters

Copepods are essential components of marine food webs worldwide. In the North Atlantic, they are thought to perform vertical migration and to remain at depths more than 500 m during winter. We challenge this concept through a study of the winter feeding ecology of little auks (Alle alle), a highly abundant planktivorous seabird from the North Atlantic. By combining stable isotope and behavioural analyses, we strongly suggest that swarms of copepods are still available to their predators in water surface layers (less than 50 m) during winter, even during short daylight periods. Using a new bioenergetic model, we estimate that the huge number (20-40 million birds) of little auks wintering off southwest Greenland consume 3600-7200 tonnes of copepods daily, strongly suggesting substantial zooplankton stocks in surface waters of the North Atlantic in the middle of the boreal winter.

Testing independent and interactive effects of corticosterone and synergized resmethrin on the immune response to West Nile virus in chickens

Public health agencies utilize aerial insecticides to interrupt an active West Nile virus (WNV) transmission cycle, which may expose WNV-infected birds to these agents. Although resmethrin has been considered benign to birds, no studies have evaluated whether the environmentally employed form of resmethrin with PBO synergist (synergized resmethrin (SR)) can suppress avian immunity to WNV infection and enhance a bird's host competence. Recognizing that wild birds confront toxicological stressors in the context of various physiological states, we exposed four groups (n=9-11) of 9-week-old chickens (Gallus domesticus) to drinking water with either SR (three alternate days at 50 microg/l resmethrin+150 microg/l piperonyl butoxide), CORT (10 days at 20mg/l to induce subacute stress), the combination of SR and CORT, or 0.10% ethanol vehicle coincident with WNV infection. Compared to controls, SR treatment did not magnify but extended viremia by 1 day, and depressed IgG; CORT treatment elevated (mean, 4.26 log(10)PFU/ml) and extended viremia by 2 days, enhanced IgM and IgG, and increased oral virus. The combination of SR and CORT increased the number of chickens that shed oral virus compared to those treated with CORT alone. None of the chickens developed a readily infectious viremia to mosquitoes (none >or=5 log(10)PFU/ml), but viremia in a CORT-exposed chicken was up to 4.95 log(10)PFU/ml. Given that SR is utilized during WNV outbreaks, continued work toward a complete risk assessment of the potential immunotoxic effects of SR is warranted. This would include parameterization of SR exposures with immunological consequences in wild birds using both replicating (in the laboratory) and non-replicating (in the field) antigens. As a start, this study indicates that SR can alter some immunological parameters, but with limited consequences to primary WNV infection outcome, and that elevated CORT mildly enhances SRs immunotoxicity in chickens.