Neuropsychological tests associated with symptomatic HIV-associated neurocognitive disorder (HAND) in a cohort of older adults in Tanzania

OBJECTIVE

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated neurocognitive disorder (HAND) prevalence is expected to increase in East Africa as treatment coverage increases, survival improves, and this population ages. This study aimed to better understand the current cognitive phenotype of this newly emergent population of older combination antiretroviral therapy (cART)-treated people living with HIV (PLWH), in which current screening measures lack accuracy. This will facilitate the refinement of HAND cognitive screening tools for this setting.

METHOD

This is a secondary analysis of 253 PLWH aged ≥50 years receiving standard government HIV clinic follow-up in Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. They were evaluated with a detailed locally normed low-literacy neuropsychological battery annually on three occasions and a consensus panel diagnosis of HAND by Frascati criteria based on clinical evaluation and collateral history.

RESULTS

Tests of verbal learning and memory, categorical verbal fluency, visual memory, and visuoconstruction had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve >0.7 for symptomatic HAND (s-HAND) (0.70-0.72; p < 0.001 for all tests). Tests of visual memory, verbal learning with delayed recall and recognition memory, psychomotor speed, language comprehension, and categorical verbal fluency were independently associated with s-HAND in a logistic mixed effects model (p < 0.01 for all). Neuropsychological impairments varied by educational background.

CONCLUSIONS

A broad range of cognitive domains are affected in older, well-controlled, East African PLWH, including those not captured in widely used screening measures. It is possible that educational background affects the observed cognitive impairments in this setting. Future screening measures for similar populations should consider assessment of visual memory, verbal learning, language comprehension, and executive and motor function.

The Getting It right First Time (GIRFT) programme in urology; rationale and methodology

The Getting It Right First Time (GIRFT) programme is a quality improvement initiative covering the National Health Service in England. The programme aims to standardise clinical practices and improve patient and system level outcomes by utilising data-driven insights and clinically-led recommendations. There are GIRFT workstreams for every medical and surgical specialty, including urology. Defining features of the GIRFT methodology are that it is clinically led by experienced clinicians, data-driven, and specialty specific. Each specialty workstream conducts deep-dive visits to every hospital, analysing performance data and engaging with clinicians and management to identify and share improvement priorities. For urology, GIRFT has completed deep-dive visits and published reports outlining priority areas for development. Reports include recommendations pertaining to streamlining care pathways, reducing the acuity of care environments, enhancing emergency services, optimising utilisation of outpatient services, and workforce training and utilisation. The GIRFT academy provides guides for implementing best practices specific to priority areas of care. These include important disease pathways, and GIRFT-advocated innovations such as urology investigation units and urology area networks. GIRFT offers clinical transformation, cost reduction, equity in access to care, and leaner models of care that are often more environmentally sustainable. Evaluation efforts of the programme have focussed on assessing the adoption of GIRFT recommendations, understanding barriers to change, and modelling the climate impact of advocated practices.

Association of day-case rates with post COVID-19 recovery of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy activity across England

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to investigate the safety of day-case laparoscopic cholecystectomy, and the association between day-case rates and, post the COVID-19 pandemic, recovery of activity to prepandemic levels for integrated care boards (ICBs) in England.

METHODS

This was a retrospective observational study of the Hospital Episodes Statistics (HES) data set. Elective laparoscopic cholecystectomies for the period 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2022 were identified. Activity levels for 2022 were compared with those for the whole of 2019 (baseline). Day-case activity was identified where the length of stay recorded in the HES was zero days.

RESULTS

Data were available for 184,252 patients across the 42 ICBs in England, of which 120,408 (65.3%) were day-case procedures. By December 2022, activity levels for the whole of England had returned to 88.2% of prepandemic levels. The South West region stood out as having recovered activity levels to the greatest extent, with activity at 97.3% of prepandemic levels during 2022. The South West also had the highest postpandemic day-case rate at 74.9% of all patients seen as a day-case during 2022; this compares with an England average of 65.3%. At an ICB level, there was a significant correlation between day-case rates and postpandemic activity levels (r = 0.362, p = 0.019). There was no strong or consistent evidence that day-case surgery had poorer patient outcomes than inpatient surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

Recovery of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy activity has been better in South West England than in other regions. Increasing day-case rates may be important if ICBs in other regions are to increase activity levels up to and beyond prepandemic levels.

Safety of Same-Day Discharge Posterior Lumbar Decompression and/or Discectomy: An Observational Study Using Administrative Data From England

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES

Same-day discharge is widely used in many surgical specialities. If carefully planned, it can improve patient outcomes whilst using resources efficiently. We aimed to investigate the safety of same-day discharge following a posterior lumbar decompression and/or discectomy (PLDD).

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of administrative data. We extracted data from the Hospital Episodes Statistics database for the 5 years from 1st April 2014 to 31st March 2019. Patients undergoing an elective one or two level PLDD aged 19-54 years during the index stay were included. The primary exposure variable was same-day discharge or post-surgery overnight stay and the primary outcome was emergency hospital readmission within 90 days post-discharge.

RESULTS

Data were available for 45,814 PLDD performed across 103 hospital trusts of which 7914 (17.3%) were performed as same-day discharge. Same-day discharge rates varied from 87.7% to 0% across the 90 hospital trusts that operated on more than 50 patients during the study period. Fourteen (15.6%) trusts had same-day discharge rates above 30% and 57 (63.3%) trusts had same-day discharge rates below 10%. The odds of emergency hospital readmission within 90 days were lower for same-day discharge patients (odds ratio .72 (95% confidence interval .61 to .85). There was no difference in outcomes for patients seen at trusts with a same-day discharge rate of ≥30% compared to trusts with a same-day discharge rate of ≤10%.

CONCLUSIONS

Same-day discharge low-complexity elective PLDD is safe in adult patients below the age of 55 years. There is potential for many providers to substantially increase their rates of same-day discharge.

Factors associated with conversion from day-case to in-patient elective inguinal hernia repair surgery across England: an observational study using administrative data

PURPOSE

Elective primary inguinal hernia repair surgery is increasingly being conducted as a day-case procedure. However, some patients planned for day-case surgery have to stay in hospital for at least one night. The aim of this study was to identify the factors associated with conversion from day-case to in-patient management for elective inguinal hernia repair surgery.

METHODS

This was an exploratory retrospective analysis of observational data from the Hospital Episode Statistics dataset for England. All patients aged ≥ 17 years undergoing a first elective inguinal hernia repair between 1st April 2014 and 31st March 2022 that was planned as day-case surgery were identified. The exposure of interest was discharged on the day of admission (day-case) or requiring overnight stay. The primary outcome of interest was 30-day emergency readmission with an overnight stay. For reporting, providers were aggregated to an Integrated Care Board (ICB) level.

RESULTS

A total of 351,528 planned day-case elective primary inguinal hernia repairs were identified over the eight-year study period. Of these, 45,305 (12.9%) stayed in hospital for at least one night and were classed as day-case to in-patient stay conversions. Patients who converted to in-patient stay were older, had more comorbidities, and were more likely to have bilateral surgery and be operated on by a low-annual volume surgeon. Post-procedural complications were strongly associated with conversion. Across the 42 ICBs in England, model-adjusted conversion rates varied from 3.3% to 21.3%.

CONCLUSIONS

There was considerable variation in conversion to in-patient stay rates for inguinal hernia repair across ICBs in England. Our findings should help surgical teams to better identify patients suitable for day-case inguinal hernia repair and plan discharge services more effectively. This should help to reduce the variation in conversion rates.

Factors associated with poorer outcomes for posterior lumbar decompression and or/or discectomy: an exploratory analysis of administrative data

PURPOSE

This study aimed to identify factors associated with poorer patient outcomes for lumbar decompression and/or discectomy (PLDD).

METHODS

We extracted data from the Hospital Episodes Statistics database for the 5 years from 1st April 2014 to 31st March 2019. Patients undergoing an elective one- or two-level PLDD aged ≥ 17 years and without evidence of revision surgery during the index stay were included. The primary patient outcome measure was readmission within 90 days post-discharge.

RESULTS

Data for 93,813 PLDDs across 111 hospital trusts were analysed. For the primary outcome, greater age [< 40 years vs 70-79 years odds ratio (OR) 1.28 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14 to 1.42), < 40 years vs ≥ 80 years OR 2.01 (95% CI 1.76-2.30)], female sex [OR 1.09 (95% CI 1.02-1.16)], surgery over two spinal levels [OR 1.16 (95% CI 1.06-1.26)] and the comorbidities chronic pulmonary disease, connective tissue disease, liver disease, diabetes, hemi/paraplegia, renal disease and cancer were all associated with emergency readmission within 90 days. Other outcomes studied had a similar pattern of associations.

CONCLUSIONS

A high-throughput PLDD pathway will not be suitable for all patients. Extra care should be taken for patients aged ≥ 70 years, females, patients undergoing surgery over two spinal levels and those with specific comorbidities or generalised frailty.

Unwarranted variation and the goal of net zero for the NHS in England: exploring the link between efficiency working, patient outcomes and carbon footprint

In 2020 the NHS in England set a target of reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2040. Progress has already been made towards this goal, with substantial reductions in the use of environmentally harmful anaesthetic gases, such as desflurane, in recent years. Where an effective replacement already exists, changing practice to use low carbon alternatives is relatively easy to achieve, but much greater challenges lie ahead. The Getting It Right First Time (GIRFT) programme is a clinically-led, data-driven clinical improvement initiative with a focus on reducing unwarranted variation in clinical practice and patient outcomes. Reducing unwarranted variation can improve patient care and service efficiency, and can also support the drive to net zero. In this article we set out what the GIRFT programme is doing to support sustainable healthcare in England, why it is uniquely positioned to support this goal and what the future challenges, barriers, enablers and opportunities are likely to be in the drive to net zero.

Trends in day-case bladder outflow obstruction surgery: a study using Hospital Episode Statistics

OBJECTIVES

To describe the contemporary evolution of day-case bladder outflow obstruction (BOO) surgery in England and to profile day-case BOO surgery practices across England in terms of the types of operation performed and their safety profiles.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This was a retrospective observational analysis of Hospital Episode Statistics and UK Office for National Statistics data. All 111 043 recorded operations across 117 hospital trusts over 66 months, from 1 January 2017 to 30 June 2022, were obtained. Operations were identified as one of: transurethral resection of prostate (TURP); laser ablation or enucleation; vapour therapy; prostatic urethral lift (PUL); or bladder neck incision. Monthly day-case rate trends were plotted across the study period. Descriptive data, day-case rates and 30-day hospital readmissions were analysed for each operation type. Multilevel regression modelling with mixed effects was performed to determine whether day-case surgery was associated with higher 30-day hospital readmissions.

RESULTS

Day-case patients were younger, with fewer comorbidities. Time series analysis showed a linear day-case rate increase from 8.3% (January 2017) to 21.0% (June 2022). Day-case rates improved for 92/117 trusts in 2021/2022 compared with 2017. Three of the six trusts with the highest day-case rates performed predominantly day-case TURP, and the other three laser surgery. Nationally, PUL and vapour surgery had the highest day-case rates (80.9% and 38.1%). Most inpatient operations were TURP. Multilevel regression modelling found reduced odds of 30-day readmission after day-case BOO surgery (all operations pooled), no difference for day-case vs inpatient TURP, and reduced odds following day-case LASER operations.

CONCLUSIONS

The day-case rates for BOO surgery have linearly increased. Minimally invasive surgical technologies are commonly performed as day cases, whereas high day-case rates for TURP and for laser ablation operations are seen in a minority of hospitals. Day-case pathways to treat BOO can be safely developed irrespective of operative modality.

Improving the outcomes for people with diabetes undergoing surgery: An observational study of the Improving the Peri-operative Pathway of People with Diabetes (IP3D) intervention

AIMS

We evaluated the effectiveness of an intervention to improve the care of people with diabetes undergoing surgery when implemented across multiple organisations.

METHODS

This was an observational study using routinely collected data. Eight hospitals in England implemented the Improving the Peri-operative Pathway of People with Diabetes (IP3D) intervention, with pre-implementation data collected from 1st February to 31st July 2019 and post-implementation data collection within the period 1st February to 31st October 2021. Key elements were the use of a patient empowering peri-operative passport and the employment of a peri-operative diabetes specialist nurse. The primary outcome was the change in length of stay.

RESULTS

In total 1837 patients at pre-implementation and 1164 patients at post-implementation undergoing elective surgery were included. Pre- and post-implementation 23.8 % and 33.4 % of patients had day-case surgery respectively. For in-patients median length of stay decreased from 3.2 days (inter-quartile range 1.5-6.1) pre-implementation to 2.5 days (inter-quartile range 1.4-5.4) post-implementation. There were also significant improvements in patient experience, hypo- and hyper-glycaemic events, wound complications and diabetes related complications.

CONCLUSIONS

The IP3D intervention has the potential to increase efficiency and reduce waiting lists for elective surgery on a nationwide basis.

Prevalence of Skeletal Fluorosis in Northern Tanzania: A Follow-Up Study

OBJECTIVES

Skeletal fluorosis is a metabolic bone disease caused by excessive exposure to fluoride, predominantly through contamination of drinking water. This study aimed to identify all cases of skeletal fluorosis in Tindigani village situated in Northern Tanzania. This was done following changes in drinking water sources after a previous prevalence study in 2009 in this population.

METHODS

In a door-to-door cross-sectional study of Tindigani village, a sample of residents was assessed for skeletal fluorosis and dental fluorosis. Diagnosis of skeletal fluorosis was based on pre-defined angles of deformity of the lower limbs. Dental fluorosis was diagnosed and graded using the Thylstrup and Fejerskov Index. Samples from current drinking water sources underwent fluoride analysis.

RESULTS

Tindigani village had a population of 1,944 individuals. Of the 1,532 individuals who were screened, 45 had skeletal fluorosis, giving a prevalence of 3.3% (95% CI=2.4, 4.3). Dental fluorosis was present in 82.5% of those examined (95% CI=79.8, 85.3). Dental fluorosis was present in all individuals with skeletal fluorosis and at higher grades than in the rest of the population. Drinking water samples were collected from 28 sources. These included piped, surface, well, and borehole water sources. Fluoride concentrations ranged from 0.45-38.59 mg/L of fluoride.

CONCLUSIONS

Skeletal fluorosis is an ongoing but preventable health problem in the current population. The delivery of sustainable low fluoride piped water to this community would be of clear health benefit. This has been addressed at a local level.

Day-case and in-patient elective inguinal hernia repair surgery across England: an observational study of variation and outcomes

PURPOSE

Elective primary inguinal hernia repair surgery is increasingly being conducted as a day-case procedure. However, in England there is evidence of wide variation in day-case rates across hospitals. Reducing the extent of this variation has the potential to support more efficient use of resources (e.g., clinician time, hospital beds) and help the recovery of elective surgical activity following the COVID-19 pandemic. The aims of this study were to explore the extent of variation in day-case rates across healthcare providers in England and to evaluate the safety of day-case elective primary inguinal hernia repair surgery.

METHODS

This was an exploratory, retrospective analysis of observational data from the Hospital Episode Statistics data set for England. All patients aged ≥ 17 years undergoing a first elective inguinal hernia repair between 1st April 2014 and 31st March 2022 were identified. The exposure of interest was day-case or in-patient stay, and the primary outcome of interest was 30-day emergency readmission with an overnight stay. For reporting, providers were aggregated to an Integrated Care Board (ICB) level.

RESULTS

A total of 413,059 elective primary inguinal hernia repairs were identified over the 8-year study period. Of these, 326,833 (79.1%) were day-case procedures. During the most recent financial year (2021-22), the highest day-case rate for an ICB was 93.8% and the lowest 66.1%. After adjusting for covariates, day-case surgery was associated with significantly lower rates of 30-day emergency readmission (odds ratio (OR) 0.61, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58-0.64, p < 0.001) and for the secondary outcomes 180-day mortality and haemorrhage, infection and pain at 30-day post-discharge. Rates of 30-day emergency readmission were significantly lower in ICBs with high rates of day-case surgery (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.74-0.96, p < 0.001) than in ICBs with low rates of day-case surgery, although rates of post-procedural haemorrhage within 30 days of discharge were significantly higher in trusts with high day-case rates (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.04-1.40, p = 0.015).

CONCLUSIONS

For the outcomes studied, we found no consistent evidence that day-case elective inguinal hernia repair was unsafe for selected patients. Currently, there is substantial variation between ICBs in terms of delivering day-case surgery. Reducing this variability may help address the current pressures on the NHS in elective surgery.

The association of demographics, frailty and multiple health conditions with outcomes from acute medical admissions to hospitals in England: exploratory analysis of an administrative dataset

Emergency and acute hospital services in England are under increasing pressure. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between key case-mix indicators and outcomes for adults admitted to hospital with an acute medical condition in England. All patients aged ≥16 years admitted to hospital in England as an acute unselected medical admission and who survived to discharge during the financial year 2021-2022 were included. Length of hospital stay was the primary outcome of interest. Data were available for 1,586,168 unique patients. A case-mix index was developed with a score that ranged from 0 to 12. Frailty was the most important variable in the index, followed by multiple health conditions and patient age. The mean case-mix score across hospital trusts in England ranged from 5.3 to 7.8. The case-mix index will support initiatives to better understand factors contributing to outcomes from acute medical admissions to hospital.

Trends Over Time in the Use, Carbon Footprint and Costs of Facet Joint Injections and Medial Branch Blocks to Manage Lumbar Pain in England: Retrospective Analysis of an Administrative Dataset

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of an administrative dataset.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to investigate changing practice over a six-year period in the use of repeated lumbar facet joint injections/medial branch blocks in England.

METHODS

Patient data were extracted from the Hospital Episodes Statistics database for the period 1st April 2015 to 31st March 2021 for the index lumbar injection and for repeat lumbar injections performed within one year of the first. The exposure of interest was two injections within 180 days or three within one year. Patients aged <17 years and where the body site was listed as cervical, thoracic or sacral were excluded.

RESULTS

Data were available for 134,249 patients of which, 8,922 (6.6%) had either two injections within 180 days or three injections within one year. First injections fell from 42,511 in 2015/16 to 13,368 in 2019/20 as did the number of repeat injections: 4,018 to 424 for the same period. If all years had the same carbon footprint as 2019/20, 2.8 kilotons of CO2e would have been saved over the five years, enough to power 2,575 average UK homes for 1 year. The financial cost of injections decreased from £27.6 million in 2015/16 to £7.9 million in 2019/20.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of patients having repeated lumbar injections has decreased over time but has not been eliminated. More work is needed to educate patients and clinicians regarding alternative and more effective treatments.

The prevalence and outcomes of depression in older HIV-positive adults in Northern Tanzania: a longitudinal study

Studies of depression and its outcomes in older people living with HIV (PLWH) are currently lacking in sub-Saharan Africa. This study aims to investigate the prevalence of psychiatric disorders in PLWH aged ≥ 50 years in Tanzania focussing on prevalence and 2-year outcomes of depression. PLWH aged ≥ 50 were systematically recruited from an outpatient clinic and assessed using the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI). Neurological and functional impairment was assessed at year 2 follow-up. At baseline, 253 PLWH were recruited (72.3% female, median age 57, 95.5% on cART). DSM-IV depression was highly prevalent (20.9%), whereas other DSM-IV psychiatric disorders were uncommon. At follow-up (n = 162), incident cases of DSM-IV depression decreased from14.2 to 11.1% (χ2: 2.48, p = 0.29); this decline was not significant. Baseline depression was associated with increased functional and neurological impairment. At follow-up, depression was associated with negative life events (p = 0.001), neurological impairment (p < 0.001), and increased functional impairment (p = 0.018), but not with HIV and sociodemographic factors. In this setting, depression appears highly prevalent and associated with poorer neurological and functional outcomes and negative life events. Depression may be a future intervention target.

Comparison of outcomes for patients with and without a serious mental illness presenting to hospital for chronic obstruction pulmonary disease: retrospective observational study using administrative data

BACKGROUND

There are few data on the profile of those with serious mental illness (SMI) admitted to hospital for physical health reasons.

AIMS

To compare outcomes for patients with and without an SMI admitted to hospital in England where the primary reason for admission was chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

METHOD

This was a retrospective, observational analysis of the English Hospital Episodes Statistics data-set for the period from 1 April 2018 to 31 March 2019, for patients aged 18-74 years with COPD as the dominant reason for admission. Patient with an SMI (psychosis spectrum disorder, bipolar disorder) were identified.

RESULTS

Data were available for 54 578 patients, of whom 2096 (3.8%) had an SMI. Patients with an SMI were younger, more likely to be female and more likely to live in deprived areas than those without an SMI. The burden of comorbidity was similar between the two groups. After adjusting for covariates, SMI was associated with significantly greater risk of length of stay than the median (odds ratio 1.24, 95% CI 1.12-1.37, P ≤ 0.001) and with 30-day emergency readmission (odds ratio 1.51, 95% confidence interval 1.34-1.69, P ≤ 0.001) but not with in-hospital mortality.

CONCLUSION

Clinicians should be aware of the potential for poorer outcomes in patients with an SMI even when the SMI is not the primary reason for admission. Collaborative working across mental and physical healthcare provision may facilitate improved outcomes for people with SMI.

The impact of a revision arthroplasty network on patient outcomes

Aims

Revision total knee arthroplasty (rTKA) and revision total hip arthroplasty (rTHA) are complex procedures with higher rates of re-revision, complications, and mortality compared to primary TKA and THA. We report the effects of the establishment of a revision arthroplasty network (the East Midlands Specialist Orthopaedic Network; EMSON) on outcomes of rTKA and rTHA.

Methods

The revision arthroplasty network was established in January 2015 and covered five hospitals in the Nottinghamshire and Lincolnshire areas of the East Midlands of England. This comprises a collaborative weekly multidisciplinary meeting where upcoming rTKA and rTHA procedures are discussed, and a plan agreed. Using the Hospital Episode Statistics database, revision procedures carried out between April 2011 and March 2018 (allowing two-year follow-up) from the five network hospitals were compared to all other hospitals in England. Age, sex, and mean Hospital Frailty Risk scores were used as covariates. The primary outcome was re-revision surgery within one year of the index revision. Secondary outcomes were re-revision surgery within two years, any complication within one and two years, and median length of hospital stay.

Results

A total of 57,621 rTHA and 33,828 rTKA procedures were performed across England, of which 1,485 (2.6%) and 1,028 (3.0%), respectively, were conducted within the network. Re-revision rates within one year for rTHA were 7.3% and 6.0%, and for rTKA were 11.6% and 7.4% pre- and postintervention, respectively, within the network. This compares to a pre-to-post change from 7.4% to 6.8% for rTHA and from 11.7% to 9.7% for rTKA for the rest of England. In comparative interrupted time-series analysis for rTKA there was a significant immediate improvement in one-year re-revision rates for the revision network compared to the rest of England (p = 0.024), but no significant change for rTHA (p = 0.504). For the secondary outcomes studied, there was a significant improvement in trend for one- and two-year complication rates for rTHA for the revision network compared to the rest of England.

Conclusion

Re-revision rates for rTKA and complication rates for rTHA improved significantly at one and two years with the introduction of a revision arthroplasty network, when compared to the rest of England. Most of the outcomes studied improved to a greater extent in the network hospitals compared to the rest of England when comparing the pre- and postintervention periods.

Potential Carbon Savings with Day-case Compared to Inpatient Transurethral Resection of Bladder Tumour Surgery in England: A Retrospective Observational Study Using Administrative Data

Background

The National Health Service (NHS) in England has set a net-zero target for carbon emissions by 2040. Increasing use of day-case surgery pathways may help in meeting this target.

Objective

To investigate the estimated difference in carbon footprint between day-case and inpatient transurethral resection of bladder tumour (TURBT) surgery in England.

Design setting and participants

This was a retrospective analysis of administrative data extracted from the Hospital Episode Statistics database for all TURBT procedures conducted in England from April 1, 2013 to March 31, 2022.

Outcome measurements and statistical analysis

Day-case and inpatient TURBT procedures were identified and the carbon footprint for key elements of the surgical pathway was estimated using data from Greener NHS and the Sustainable Healthcare Coalition.

Results and limitations

Of 209 269 TURBT procedures identified, 41 583 (20%) were classified as day-case surgery. The day-case rate increased from 13% in 2013-2014 to 31% in 2021-2022. The move from inpatient stays to day-case surgery between 2013-2014 and 2021-2022 demonstrates a trend toward a lower-carbon pathway, with an estimated saving of 2.9 million kg CO₂ equivalents (equivalent to powering 2716 homes for 1 yr) in comparison to no change in practice. We calculated that potential carbon savings for the financial year 2021-2022 would be 217 599 kg CO₂ equivalents (equivalent to powering 198 homes for 1 yr) if all hospitals in England not already in the upper quartile were able to achieve the current upper-quartile day-case rate. Our study is limited in that estimates are based on carbon factors for generic surgical pathways.

Conclusions

Our study highlights potential NHS carbon savings that could be achieved by moving from inpatient stays to day-case surgery. Reducing variation in care across the NHS and encouraging all hospitals to adopt day-case surgeries, where clinically appropriate, would lead to further carbon savings.

Patient summary

In this study we estimated the potential for carbon savings if patient undergoing bladder tumour surgery were admitted and discharged on the same day. We estimate that increasing use of day-case surgery between 2013-2014 and 2021-2022 has saved 2.9 million kg CO₂ equivalents. If all hospitals were to achieve day case-rates comparable to those in the highest quarter of hospitals in England in 2021-2022, then the carbon equivalent to powering 198 homes for 1 year could have been saved.

Role of hospital strain in determining outcomes for people hospitalised with COVID-19 in England

BACKGROUND

In England, reported COVID-19 mortality rates increased during winter 2020/21 relative to earlier summer and autumn months. This study aimed to examine the association between COVID-19-related hospital bed-strain during this time and patient outcomes.

METHODS

This was a retrospective observational study using Hospital Episode Statistics data for England. All unique patients aged ≥18 years in England with a diagnosis of COVID-19 who had a completed (discharged alive or died in hospital) hospital stay with an admission date between 1 July 2020 and 28 February 2021 were included. Bed-strain was calculated as the number of beds occupied by patients with COVID-19 divided by the maximum COVID-19 bed occupancy during the study period. Bed-strain was categorised into quartiles for modelling. In-hospital mortality was the primary outcome of interest and length of stay a secondary outcome.

RESULTS

There were 253 768 unique hospitalised patients with a diagnosis of COVID-19 during a hospital stay. Patient admissions peaked in January 2021 (n=89 047), although the crude mortality rate peaked slightly earlier in December 2020 (26.4%). After adjustment for covariates, the mortality rate in the lowest and highest quartile of bed-strain was 23.6% and 25.3%, respectively (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.17). For the lowest and the highest quartile of bed-strain, adjusted mean length of stay was 13.2 days and 11.6 days, respectively in survivors and was 16.5 days and 12.6 days, respectively in patients who died in hospital.

CONCLUSIONS

High levels of bed-strain were associated with higher in-hospital mortality rates, although the effect was relatively modest and may not fully explain increased mortality rates during winter 2020/21 compared with earlier months. Shorter hospital stay during periods of greater strain may partly reflect changes in patient management over time.

Safety of day-case endoscopic sinus surgery in England: An observational study using an administrative dataset

INTRODUCTION

As elective surgical services recover from the COVID-19 pandemic a movement towards day-case surgery may reduce waiting lists. However, evidence is needed to show that day-case surgery is safe for endoscopic sinus surgery (ESS). The aim of this study was to investigate the safety of day-case ESS in England.

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of administrative data.

METHODS

We extracted data from the Hospital Episodes Statistics database for the 5 years from 1 April 2014 to 31 March 2019. Patients undergoing elective ESS procedures aged ≥17 years were included. Exclusion criteria included malignant neoplasm, complex systemic disease and trans-sphenoidal pituitary surgery. The primary outcome was readmission within 30 days post-discharge. Multilevel, multivariable logistic regression modelling was used to compare outcomes for those operated on as day-cases and those with an overnight stay after adjusting for demographic, frailty, comorbidity and procedural covariates.

RESULTS

Data were available for 49 223 patients operated on across 129 NHS hospital trusts. In trusts operating on more than 50 patients in the study period, rates of day-case surgery varied from 20.6% to 100%. Nationally, rates of day-case surgery increased from 64.0% in the financial year 2014/2015 to 78.7% in 2018/2019. Day-case patients had lower rates of 30-day emergency readmission (odds ratio 0.71, 95% confidence interval 0.62 to 0.81). Outcomes for patients operated on in trusts with ≥80% day-case rates compared with patients operated on in trusts with <50% rates of day-case surgery were similar.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data support the view that ESS can safely be performed as day-case surgery in most cases, although it will not be suitable for all patients. There appears to be scope to increase rates of day-case ESS in some hospital trusts in England.

The volume-outcome relationship for endoscopic transsphenoidal pituitary surgery for benign neoplasm: analysis of an administrative dataset for England

BACKGROUND

Setting minimum annual volume thresholds for pituitary surgery in England is seen as one way of improving outcomes for patients and service efficiency. However, there are few recent studies from the UK on whether a volume-outcome effect exists, particularly in the era of endoscopic surgery. Such data are needed to allow evidence-based decision making. The aim of this study was to use administrative data to investigate volume-outcome effects for endoscopic transsphenoidal pituitary surgery in England.

METHODS

Data from the Hospital Episodes Statistics database for adult endoscopic transsphenoidal pituitary surgery for benign neoplasm conducted in England from April 2013 to March 2019 (inclusive) were extracted. Annual surgeon and trust volume was defined as the number of procedures conducted in the 12 months prior to the index procedure. Volume was categorised as < 10, 10-19, 20-29, 30-39 and ≥40 procedures for surgeon volume and < 20, 20-39, 40-59, 60-79 and ≥80 procedures for trust volume. The primary outcome was repeat ETSPS during the index procedure or during a hospital admission within one-year of discharge from the index procedure.

RESULTS

Data were available for 4590 endoscopic transsphenoidal pituitary procedures. After adjustment for covariates, higher surgeon volume was significantly associated with reduced risk of repeat surgery within one year (odds ratio (OR) 0.991 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.982-1.000)), post-procedural haemorrhage (OR 0.977 (95% CI 0.967-0.987)) and length of stay greater than the median (0.716 (0.597-0.859)). A higher trust volume was associated with reduced risk of post-procedural haemorrhage (OR 0.992 (95% CI 0.985-0.999)), but with none of the other patient outcomes studied.

CONCLUSIONS

A surgeon volume-outcome relationship exists for endoscopic transsphenoidal pituitary surgery in England.

Data quality and autism: Issues and potential impacts

INTRODUCTION

Large healthcare datasets can provide insight that has the potential to improve outcomes for patients. However, it is important to understand the strengths and limitations of such datasets so that the insights they provide are accurate and useful. The aim of this study was to identify data inconsistencies within the Hospital Episodes Statistics (HES) dataset for autistic patients and assess potential biases introduced through these inconsistencies and their impact on patient outcomes. The study can only identify inconsistencies in recording of autism diagnosis and not whether the inclusion or exclusion of the autism diagnosis is the error.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the HES database for the period 1st April 2013 to 31st March 2021 for patients with a diagnosis of autism. First spells in hospital during the study period were identified for each patient and these were linked to any subsequent spell in hospital for the same patient. Data inconsistencies were recorded where autism was not recorded as a diagnosis in a subsequent spell. Features associated with data inconsistencies were identified using a random forest classifiers and regression modelling.

RESULTS

Data were available for 172,324 unique patients who had been recorded as having an autism diagnosis on first admission. In total, 43.7 % of subsequent spells were found to have inconsistencies. The features most strongly associated with inconsistencies included greater age, greater deprivation, longer time since the first spell, change in provider, shorter length of stay, being female and a change in the main specialty description. The random forest algorithm had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.864 (95 % CI [0.862 - 0.866]) in predicting a data inconsistency. For patients who died in hospital, inconsistencies in their final spell were significantly associated with being 80 years and over, being female, greater deprivation and use of a palliative care code in the death spell.

CONCLUSIONS

Data inconsistencies in the HES database were relatively common in autistic patients and were associated a number of patient and hospital admission characteristics. Such inconsistencies have the potential to distort our understanding of service use in key demographic groups.

Frailty, Comorbidity, and Associations With In-Hospital Mortality in Older COVID-19 Patients: Exploratory Study of Administrative Data

BACKGROUND

Older adults have worse outcomes following hospitalization with COVID-19, but within this group there is substantial variation. Although frailty and comorbidity are key determinants of mortality, it is less clear which specific manifestations of frailty and comorbidity are associated with the worst outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to identify the key comorbidities and domains of frailty that were associated with in-hospital mortality in older patients with COVID-19 using models developed for machine learning algorithms.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study that used the Hospital Episode Statistics administrative data set from March 1, 2020, to February 28, 2021, for hospitalized patients in England aged 65 years or older. The data set was split into separate training (70%), test (15%), and validation (15%) data sets during model development. Global frailty was assessed using the Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) and specific domains of frailty were identified using the Global Frailty Scale (GFS). Comorbidity was assessed using the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). Additional features employed in the random forest algorithms included age, sex, deprivation, ethnicity, discharge month and year, geographical region, hospital trust, disease severity, and International Statistical Classification of Disease, 10th Edition codes recorded during the admission. Features were selected, preprocessed, and input into a series of random forest classification algorithms developed to identify factors strongly associated with in-hospital mortality. Two models were developed; the first model included the demographic, hospital-related, and disease-related items described above, as well as individual GFS domains and CCI items. The second model was similar to the first but replaced the GFS domains and CCI items with the HFRS as a global measure of frailty. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve and measures of model accuracy.

RESULTS

In total, 215,831 patients were included. The model using the individual GFS domains and CCI items had an AUROC curve for in-hospital mortality of 90% and a predictive accuracy of 83%. The model using the HFRS had similar performance (AUROC curve 90%, predictive accuracy 82%). The most important frailty items in the GFS were dementia/delirium, falls/fractures, and pressure ulcers/weight loss. The most important comorbidity items in the CCI were cancer, heart failure, and renal disease.

CONCLUSIONS

The physical manifestations of frailty and comorbidity, particularly a history of cognitive impairment and falls, may be useful in identification of patients who need additional support during hospitalization with COVID-19.

An Analysis of a National Administrative Dataset Demonstrating No Evidence of Increase in Elective Primary Total Hip Arthroplasty Dislocation Rates When Postoperative Hip Precautions are Not Used

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study is to determine whether there is a higher dislocation rate when postoperative hip precautions are not used for primary total hip arthroplasty (THA).

METHODS

A survey was conducted of the hip precautions used by orthopaedic departments in England performing elective primary THA. From the responses to the survey an interrupted time series analysis was performed using the hospital admissions data from the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) database during the period April 1, 2011 to December 31, 2019 and subsequent dislocations of these prostheses up to June 30, 2020. These were used to determine dislocations within 180 days of primary surgery and emergency readmissions within 30 days of discharge.

RESULTS

Records were reviewed from 229,057 patients receiving primary, elective THA across 114 hospitals. In total, 1,807 (0.8%) dislocations were recorded within 180 days of surgery. There were 12,416 (5.4%) emergency readmissions within 30 days of surgery. Within hospitals where hip precautions were stopped, the proportion of patients having a dislocation was 0.8% both before and after stopping precautions, with a significant postintervention trend towards fewer dislocations (P < .001). There was also a significant immediate change in median length of stay from 4 to 3 days (P < .001) but no significant trend in the proportion of emergency readmissions within 30 days.

CONCLUSION

There is no evidence of an increase in early dislocation or 30-day readmission rates after stopping traditional postoperative hip precautions in primary THA. Potential reductions in length of stay will reduce the risks associated with an extended hospital admission, improve service efficiency, and reduce costs.

COVID-19 hospital activity and in-hospital mortality during the first and second waves of the pandemic in England: an observational study

INTRODUCTION

We aimed to examine the profile of, and outcomes for, all people hospitalised with COVID-19 across the first and second waves of the pandemic in England.

METHODS

This was an exploratory retrospective analysis of observational data from the Hospital Episode Statistics data set for England. All patients aged ≥18 years in England with a diagnosis of COVID-19 who had a hospital stay that was completed between 1 March 2020 and 31 March 2021 were included. In-hospital mortality was the primary outcome of interest. The second wave was identified as starting on 1 September 2020. Multilevel logistic regression modelling was used to investigate the relationship between mortality and demographic, comorbidity and temporal covariates.

RESULTS

Over the 13 months, 374 244 unique patients had a diagnosis of COVID-19 during a hospital stay, of whom 93 701 (25%) died in hospital. Adjusted mortality rates fell from 40%-50% in March 2020 to 11% in August 2020 before rising to 21% in January 2021 and declining steadily to March 2021. Improvements in mortality rates were less apparent in older and comorbid patients. Although mortality rates fell for all ethnic groups from the first to the second wave, declines were less pronounced for Bangladeshi, Indian, Pakistani, other Asian and black African ethnic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a substantial decline in adjusted mortality rates during the early part of the first wave which was largely maintained during the second wave. The underlying reasons for consistently higher mortality risk in some ethnic groups merits further study.

Data consistency in the English Hospital Episodes Statistics database

BACKGROUND

To gain maximum insight from large administrative healthcare datasets it is important to understand their data quality. Although a gold standard against which to assess criterion validity rarely exists for such datasets, internal consistency can be evaluated. We aimed to identify inconsistencies in the recording of mandatory International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, tenth revision (ICD-10) codes within the Hospital Episodes Statistics dataset in England.

METHODS

Three exemplar medical conditions where recording is mandatory once diagnosed were chosen: autism, type II diabetes mellitus and Parkinson's disease dementia. We identified the first occurrence of the condition ICD-10 code for a patient during the period April 2013 to March 2021 and in subsequent hospital spells. We designed and trained random forest classifiers to identify variables strongly associated with recording inconsistencies.

RESULTS

For autism, diabetes and Parkinson's disease dementia respectively, 43.7%, 8.6% and 31.2% of subsequent spells had inconsistencies. Coding inconsistencies were highly correlated with non-coding of an underlying condition, a change in hospital trust and greater time between the spell with the first coded diagnosis and the subsequent spell. For patients with diabetes or Parkinson's disease dementia, the code recording for spells without an overnight stay were found to have a higher rate of inconsistencies.

CONCLUSIONS

Data inconsistencies are relatively common for the three conditions considered. Where these mandatory diagnoses are not recorded in administrative datasets, and where clinical decisions are made based on such data, there is potential for this to impact patient care.

Multimorbidity and its socio-economic associations in community-dwelling older adults in rural Tanzania; a cross-sectional study

Objectives

This paper aims to describe the prevalence and socio-economic associations with multimorbidity, by both self-report and clinical assessment/screening methods in community-dwelling older people living in rural Tanzania.

Methods

A randomised frailty-weighted sample of non-institutionalised adults aged ≥ 60 years underwent comprehensive geriatric assessment and in-depth assessment. The comprehensive geriatric assessment consisted of a history and focused clinical examination. The in-depth assessment included standardised questionnaires, screening tools and blood pressure measurement. The prevalence of multimorbidity was calculated for self-report and non-self-reported methods (clinician diagnosis, screening tools and direct measurement). Multimorbidity was defined as having two or more conditions. The socio-demographic associations with multimorbidity were investigated by multiple logistic regression.

Results

A sample of 235 adults participated in the study, selected from a screened sample of 1207. The median age was 74 years (range 60 to 110 inter-quartile range (IQR) 19) and 136 (57.8%) were women. Adjusting for frailty-weighting, the prevalence of self-reported multimorbidity was 26.1% (95% CI 16.7–35.4), and by clinical assessment/screening was 67.3% (95% CI 57.0–77.5). Adjusting for age, sex, education and frailty status, multimorbidity by self-report increased the odds of being financially dependent on others threefold (OR 3.3 [95% CI 1.4–7.8]), and of a household member reducing their paid employment nearly fourfold (OR 3.8. [95% CI 1.5–9.2]).

Conclusions

Multimorbidity is prevalent in this rural lower-income African setting and is associated with evidence of household financial strain. Multimorbidity prevalence is higher when not reliant on self-reported methods, revealing that many conditions are underdiagnosed and undertreated.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-14340-0.

An observational study of vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty for osteoporotic spinal fractures: utilisation and outcomes in England using an administrative dataset

We reviewed outcomes for vertebroplasty and balloon kyphoplasty for the surgical treatment of osteoporotic spinal fracture. Our study of 5792 vertebroplasty and 3136 balloon kyphoplasty procedures conducted in England over a 7-year period found no evidence that the patient outcomes studied were poorer for vertebroplasty than for balloon kyphoplasty.

PURPOSE

To investigate use, safety and functional outcomes of vertebroplasty (VP) and balloon kyphoplasty (BKP) techniques for osteoporotic spinal fracture for patients operated on within the National Health Service in England.

METHODS

This was an observational analysis of administrative data. Data were extracted from the Hospital Episodes Statistics database for the period 1^st April 2011 to 31^st March 2018 for all VP and BKP procedures. Patients aged < 19 years, with metastatic carcinoma and undergoing other decompression procedures, were excluded. The primary outcome was repeat spinal surgery within 1 year. Secondary outcomes were 30-day emergency readmission, death within 1 year, extended hospital stay, post-procedural pain within 30 days and post-procedural haemorrhage or infection within 30 days. Multilevel, multivariable logistic regression was used to adjust for covariates.

RESULTS

Data were available for 5792 VP and 3136 BKP patients operated on at 96 hospital trusts. In the 63 trusts that conducted more than 20 procedures during the study period, the proportion of procedures conducted as BKP varied from 0 to 100%. There was no difference in any of the outcomes between VP and BKP patients or between trusts performing ≥ 70% and ≤ 30% of procedures as BKP.

CONCLUSIONS

With regard to the outcomes studied, there is no evidence that VP is associated with poorer outcomes than BKP.

HIV-Associated Neurocognitive Disorders: The First Longitudinal Follow-Up of a cART-Treated Cohort of Older People in Sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND) are a highly prevalent chronic complication in older people living with HIV (PLWH) in high-income countries. Although sub-Saharan Africa has a newly emergent population of older combination antiretroviral therapy (cART)-treated PLWH, HAND have not been studied longitudinally. We assessed longitudinal prevalence of HAND and have identified possible modifiable factors in a population of PLWH aged 50 years or older, over 3 years of follow-up.

METHODS

Detailed neuropsychological and clinical assessment was completed annually in the period 2016-2019 in a systematic sample of cART-treated PLWH in Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. A consensus panel defined HAND using American Academy of Neurology criteria for asymptomatic neurocognitive impairment, mild neurocognitive disorder, and HIV-associated dementia. HIV disease severity and other factors associated with HAND progression, improvement, and stability were evaluated in individuals fully assessed at baseline and in 2019.

RESULTS

At baseline, 47% of the cohort (n = 253, 72.3% female individuals) met HAND criteria despite good HIV disease control [Y1 59.5% (n = 185), Y2 61.7% (n = 162), and Y3 57.9% (n = 121)]. Of participants fully assessed at baseline and year 3 (n = 121), HAND remained stable in 54% (n = 57), improved in 15% (n = 16), and declined in 31% (n = 33). Older age and lower education level significantly predicted HAND progression, whereas HIV-specific factors did not. Male sex and shorter cART duration were associated with improvement.

CONCLUSIONS

In this first longitudinal study characterizing clinical course of HAND in older cART-treated PLWH in sub-Saharan Africa, HAND was highly prevalent with variable progression and reversibility. Progression may be more related to cognitive reserve than HIV disease in cART-treated PLWH.

Volume-Outcome Associations for Parathyroid Surgery in England: Analysis of an Administrative Data Set for the Getting It Right First Time Program

Importance

Previous studies have suggested an association between surgical volume and patient outcomes for parathyroid surgery. However, most previous studies are relatively small and the literature is dominated by studies form the US, which might not be readily generalizable to other settings.

Objective

To investigate volume-outcome associations for parathyroid surgery in England.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Cohort study that included all National Health Service hospital trusts in England with secondary analysis of administrative data using International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10). Participants included all adult, elective hospital admissions for parathyroid surgery without a diagnosis of multiple endocrine neoplasia, parathyroid cancer, or kidney disease over a 5-year period (April 2014-March 2019 inclusive).

Exposures

The number of procedures conducted in the year prior to the index procedure by each surgeon and each hospital trust.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Repeat parathyroid surgery within 1 year of the index procedure.

Results

This study included data for 17 494 participants who underwent parathyroidectomies conducted across 125 hospital trusts. The median (IQR) age of patients was 62 (53-71) years, and 13 826 were female (79.0%). Across the period, the number of surgeons conducting parathyroid surgery changed little (280 in 2014-2015 and 2018-2019), although the number of procedures conducted rose from 3331 to 3848 per annum. Repeat parathyroid surgery at 1 year was significantly associated with surgeon volume (odds ratio [OR], 0.99; 95% CI, 0.98-0.99), but not trust volume, in the previous 12 months. Extended length of stay (OR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.98-0.99), hypoparathyroidism/calcium disorder (OR, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.99-1.0), and postprocedural complications (OR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.99-1.0) were also associated with lower surgeon volume.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, higher surgeon annual volume was associated with decreased rates of repeat parathyroid surgery. A minimum volume threshold of 20 procedures per annum should improve patient outcomes, although possible negative effects on access to services should be monitored.

Understanding Caregiver Strain in Parkinsonism-A Mixed Methods Approach

BACKGROUND

Parkinsonism, including Parkinson's disease (PD) are progressive neurological conditions. As these condition progress, individuals will need more support with their care needs to maintain independent community-living. Care needs are mainly met by unpaid, informal caregivers, usually close family members or friends. Caregiver strain is thought to lead to the need for care home placement when the caregiver can no longer cope.

OBJECTIVE

To understand predictors of caregiver strain and its influence on care home placement for people with moderate to advanced Parkinsonism.

METHODS

This is a convergent mixed methods study. Quantitative data, following an adapted stress-appraisal model, were collected on caregiver profile, tasks performed and causes of caregiver strain. Semi-structured, in-depth interviews were conducted with caregivers of people with PD (PwP) who went into a care home during the study period, to develop a deeper understanding of the caregiver role and the factors influencing caregiver strain.

RESULTS

Quantitative data were collected from 115 patient caregiver dyads. Interviews were conducted with 10 caregivers. A model to predict caregiver strain was developed and predictors of caregiver strain were identified, such as functional disability and poor caregiver sleep.

CONCLUSION

Our findings further demonstrate the complexity of carer strain. Particular dimensions are identified that need to be addressed within clinical practice to reduce carer strain and support people with Parkinsonism to remain within their own home for as long as possible.

Social vulnerability, frailty and their association with mortality in older adults living in rural Tanzania

Background

Social vulnerability correlates with frailty and is associated with mortality and disability. However, few studies have investigated this relationship outside of high-income country settings. This study aimed to produce and analyze a culturally adapted social vulnerability index (SVI) to investigate the relationship between social vulnerability, frailty, and mortality in older adults in Tanzania.

Methods

An SVI was produced using data from a cohort study investigating frailty in older adults in Tanzania. Variables were selected based on previous SVI studies using the categories established by Andrew et al. from the Canadian Study of Health and Aging, and National Population Health Survey. The SVI distribution was examined and compared with a frailty index (FI) produced from the same sample, using mutually exclusive variables. Cox regression survival analysis was used to investigate the association between social vulnerability, frailty, and mortality.

Results

A stratified cohort of 235 individuals were included in the study at baseline, with a mean age of 75.2 (SD 11.5). Twenty-six participants died within the follow-up period, with a mean of 503 days (range: 405–568) following the initial assessment. The SVI had a median score of 0.47 (interquartile range: 0.23, range: 0.14–0.86). Social vulnerability significantly predicted mortality when adjusting for age and gender, but not when also adjusting for frailty.

Conclusions

Social vulnerability can be successfully operationalized and culturally adapted in Tanzania. Social vulnerability is associated with mortality in Tanzania, but not independently of frailty.

The spectrum and burden of in-patient paediatric musculoskeletal diseases in Northern Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Musculoskeletal diseases (MSD) are a major contributor to the global burden of disease and disability, and disproportionally affect low- and middle-income countries; however, there is a dearth of epidemiological data. Affected children often face increased morbidity, social isolation and economic hardship.

AIM

To assess the spectrum and burden of paediatric MSD in children aged 5-18 years admitted to a major referral hospital in Tanzania.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of children aged 5-18 years admitted to Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre (KCMC) whose initial diagnosis was recognised as a musculoskeletal condition by the International Classification of Diseases-10 between 1 January and 31 December 2017.

RESULTS

During 2017, 163 cases of confirmed paediatric MSD were admitted to KCMC, representing 21.2% of all admissions of children aged 5-18 years (n = 769). Bone disease was the most common diagnosis. They comprised 106 (65.0%) traumatic fractures, 31 (19.0%) osteo-articular infections, 9 (5.5%) malunions and 3 (1.8%) pathological fractures. Congenital defects and rheumatic disease were relatively uncommon, accounting for only 6 (3.7%) and 4 (2.5%) MSD admissions, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The majority of cases of MSD were related to fractures, followed by osteo-articular infections, while recognised cases of rheumatic disease were rare. The study, although small, identified the sizeable burden and spectrum of paediatric MSD admitted to a hospital in Tanzania over a 12-month period and highlights the need for larger studies to inform the optimal allocation of health resources.

ABBREVIATION

CI: confidence interval; HIC: high-income countries; HIV: human immunodeficiency virus; ICD-10: International Classification of Diseases 10; IQR: interquartile range; JIA: juvenile idiopathic arthritis; KCMC: Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre; LMIC: low- and middle-income countries; MSD: musculoskeletal diseases: NAI: non-accidental injury; NIHR: National Institute for Health Research; PAFLAR: Paediatric Society of the African League Against Rheumatism; RTA: road traffic accidents; SCD: sickle cell disease; SLE: systemic lupus erythematosus; SSA: sub-Saharan Africa.

Evaluation of a low-resource screening strategy for ophthalmic pathologies and associated neurological morbidity in an older Tanzanian HIV-positive population

Globally, 43 million people are living with HIV, 90% in developing countries. Increasing life expectancy with combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) results in chronic complications, including HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND) and eye diseases. HAND screening is currently challenging. Our aim was to evaluate clinical utility of retinopathy as a screening measure of HAND in older cART-treated individuals in Tanzania and feasibility of smartphone-based retinal screening in this low-resource setting. A cross-sectional systematic sample aged ≥ 50-years attending routine HIV follow-up in Tanzania were comprehensively assessed for HAND by American Academy of Neurology criteria and received ophthalmic assessment including smartphone-based retinal imaging. HAND and ophthalmic assessments were independent and blinded. Diagnostic accuracy was evaluated by AUROC curves. Of 129 individuals assessed, 69.8% were visually impaired. Thirteen had retinopathy. HAND prevalence was 66.7%. Retinopathy was significantly associated with HAND but HIV-disease factors (CD4, viral load) were not. Diagnostic accuracy of retinopathy for HAND was poor (AUROC 0.545-0.617) but specificity and positive predictive value were high. We conclude that ocular pathology and HAND appear highly prevalent in this low-resource setting. Although retinal screening cannot be used alone identify HAND, prioritization of individuals with abnormal retinal screening is a potential strategy in low-resource settings.

Development of a brief screening method for identification of depression in older adults in Sub-Saharan Africa

OBJECTIVES

To develop a brief, culturally appropriate screening tool for identifying late life depression (LLD), for use by non-specialist clinicians in primary and out-patient care settings in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

BACKGROUND

Depressive disorders are a leading contributor to the global health burden. LLD is common and cases will increase as populations' age, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), such as those in SSA. A chronic mental health workforce shortage and the absence of culturally adapted LLD screening tools to aid non-specialist clinicians have contributed to a significant diagnostic gap.

DESIGN

A systematic random sample of older people attending general medical clinics were interviewed using a 30-item LLD questionnaire, developed utilizing a Delphi consensus analysis of items from the Geriatric Depression Scale, Patient Health Questionnaire-2 and questions developed from a study of lay conceptualisations of depression in Tanzania. The items were assessed for validity against blinded DSM 5 diagnosis of depression by a research doctor. Factor and item analysis were then used to refine the questionnaire.

RESULTS

The 12-item Maddison Old-age Scale for Identifying Depression (MOSHI-D) was developed. It has good internal consistency (Cronbach's α = 0.820) and construct and criterion validity (AUROC = 0.880).

CONCLUSIONS

On initial evaluation, the MOSHI-D showed good internal validity. It should be easy for non-specialists to administer. External validation and further refinement will be conducted. A culturally-appropriate LLD screen may improve mental health care integration into existing healthcare settings within SSA and facilitate greater patient access to care, in accordance with current WHO strategy.

The Cause and Duration of Emergency Admissions to Hospital in People with Idiopathic Parkinson's Disease, Under the Care of a UK Service, During the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic

BACKGROUND

People with Parkinson's disease (PD) have higher rates of hospitalisation and healthcare utilisation compared to the general population. The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant changes in admissions to hospital and access to healthcare. People with PD are some of the most vulnerable to such changes. There is no pre-existing data on the cause and duration of admission to hospital of people with PD during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the cause, duration, and outcome of hospital admissions to Northumbria Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust (NHCFT) for people with idiopathic Parkinson's disease (IPD) in 2020.

METHODS

All people with IPD who had an emergency admission to NHCFT between 01/01/2020 and 31/12/2020 were identified. Demographic and disease characteristics, the number, duration, cause of admission and the location prior to admission were collected from an audit of medical notes.

RESULTS

271 people with IPD had one or more emergency admissions to NHCFT between 01/01/2020 and 31/12/2020. There was a total of 453 emergency admissions, with a median duration of 5 (IQR 2-13) days. The most common causes of admission to hospital were PD-related motor dysfunction (includes falls with no other underlying cause or associated injury) and injury (includes falls with fracture), at 78 (17.2%) and 70 (15.5%) respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

People with IPD had a short duration but high number of emergency admissions to hospital. Our chronological data on number of admissions shows a peak in admissions during August 2020. As a result of these findings and emerging data we suggest that individuals with PD deconditioned during 2020.

Driving and Parkinson's Disease: A Survey of the Patient's Perspective

BACKGROUND

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a multi-system disorder that can impact on driving ability. Little is known about how these changes in driving ability affect people with PD, making it difficult for clinicians and carers to offer appropriate support.

OBJECTIVE

To assess patient views concerning the effect of PD on their driving ability, the impact of these changes and how they manage them.

METHOD

An online survey was created by a team of clinicians, people with PD, their carers, and representatives from Parkinson's UK. People with PD throughout the United Kingdom were invited to participate through Parkinson's UK's website, newsletter and Parkinson's Excellence Network email list.

RESULTS

805 people with PD took part in the survey. We found that the loss of a driving licence had an adverse impact on employment, socialisation, travel costs and spontaneous lifestyle choices. Multiple changes in driving ability related to PD were described, including that impulse control disorders can have an adverse impact on driving. Changes in driving ability caused people to change their driving practices including taking shorter journeys and being less likely to drive at night. Participants advised managing changes in driving ability through planning, vehicle adaptions, maintaining skills and self-assessment.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates the impact that changes in driving ability can have on the lifestyle of people with PD and reveals the strategies that individuals adopt to manage these changes.

Effectiveness of App-Based Cognitive Screening for Dementia by Lay Health Workers in Low Resource Settings. A Validation and Feasibility Study in Rural Tanzania

BACKGROUND

The majority of people with dementia live in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) human-resource shortages in mental health and geriatric medicine are well recognized. Use of technological solutions may improve access to diagnosis. We aimed to assess the diagnostic accuracy of a brief dementia screening mobile application (app) for non-specialist workers in rural Tanzania against blinded gold-standard diagnosis of DSM-5 dementia. The app includes 2 previously-validated culturally appropriate low-literacy screening tools for cognitive (IDEA cognitive screen) and functional impairment (abbreviated IDEA-IADL questionnaire).

METHODS

This was a 2-stage community-based door-to-door study. In Stage1, rural primary health workers approached all individuals aged ≥60 years for app-based dementia screening in 12 villages in Hai district, Kilimanjaro Tanzania.In Stage 2, a stratified sub-sample were clinically-assessed for dementia blind to app screening score. Assessment included clinical history, neurological and bedside cognitive assessment and collateral history.

RESULTS

3011 (of 3122 eligible) older people consented to screening. Of these, 610 were evaluated in Stage 2. For the IDEA cognitive screen, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was 0.79 (95% CI 0.74-0.83) for DSM-5 dementia diagnosis (sensitivity 84.8%, specificity 58.4%). For those 358 (44%) completing the full app, AUROC was 0.78 for combined cognitive and informant-reported functional assessment.

CONCLUSIONS

The pilot dementia screening app had good sensitivity but lacked specificity for dementia when administered by non-specialist rural community workers. This technological approach may be a promising way forward in low-resource settings, specialist onward referral may be prioritized.

Prevalence and associated factors of depression among older adults in rural Tanzania

OBJECTIVES

Depression is the commonest mental disorder in older adults worldwide, affecting 7% of the world's older population and accounting for 5.7% of years lived with disability among adults aged over 60 years. We conducted a secondary data analysis to determine the point prevalence, associated risk factors and treatment gap for DSM-IV depression among older adults in the Hai District, rural Tanzania.

METHODS

The primary data source was a cross-sectional two-stage community-based dementia study where older adults aged ≥70 years (n = 296) were fully-assessed for dementia and depression in the second stage. Age-adjusted prevalence of depression was determined based on the WHO standard population using the Direct Method. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were performed.

RESULTS

Of the 296 older adults assessed for depression, 48 were diagnosed with depression based on Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-IV criteria. The median (Inter Quartile Range; QR) age was 80 (75-88) years. Age-adjusted point prevalence of depression was 21.2% (95% CI: 16.6-21.9) and the treatment gap for depression was 100%. There was reduced odds of depression in older adults who rated their physical health as good or very good (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.22; 95%CI: 0.10-0.46; p < 0.001), or moderate (AOR 0.26; 95%CI: 0.10-0.66; p = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

Depression in older adults is associated with physical health status and there is an alarmingly high treatment gap. Future research on depression in older adults should focus on effective interventions to address physical morbidity, psychosocial factors and the treatment gap.

Safety of day-case paediatric tonsillectomy in England: an analysis of administrative data for the Getting It Right First Time programme

We used the Hospital Episodes Statistics database to investigate unwarranted variation in the rates Trusts discharged children the same day after scheduled tonsillectomy and associations with adverse postoperative outcomes. We included children aged 2-18 years who underwent tonsillectomy between 1 April 2014 and 31 March 2019. We stratified analyses by category of Trust, non-specialist or specialist, defined as without or with paediatric critical care facilities, respectively. We adjusted analyses for age, sex, year of surgery and aspects of presentation and procedure type. Of 101,180 children who underwent tonsillectomy at non-specialist Trusts, 62,926 (62%) were discharged the same day, compared with 24,138/48,755 (50%) at specialist Trusts. The adjusted proportion of children discharged the same day as tonsillectomy ranged from 5% to 100% at non-specialist Trusts and 9% to 88% at specialist Trusts. Same-day discharge was not independently associated with an increased rate of 30-day emergency re-admission at non-specialist Trusts but was associated with a modest rate increase at specialist Trusts; adjusted probability 8.0% vs 7.7%, odds ratio (95%CI) 1.14 (1.05-1.24). Rates of adverse postoperative outcomes were similar for Trusts that discharged >70% children the same day as tonsillectomy compared with Trusts that discharged <50% children the same day, for both non-specialist and specialist Trust categories. We found no consistent evidence that day-case tonsillectomy is associated with poorer outcomes. All Trusts, but particularly specialist centres, should explore reasons for low day-case rates and should aim for rates >70%.

Identifying unwarranted variation in clinical practice between healthcare providers in England: Analysis of administrative data over time for the Getting It Right First Time programme

RATIONALE, AIMS, AND OBJECTIVES

The Getting It Right First Time programme aims to reduce variation in clinical practice that unduly impacts on outcomes for patients in the National Health Service (NHS) in England; often termed "unwarranted variation." However, there is no "gold standard" method for detecting unwarranted variation. The aim of this study was to describe a method to allow such variation in recorded practice or patient outcomes between NHS trusts to be detected using data over multiple time periods. By looking at variation over time, it was hoped that patterns that could be missed by looking at data at a single time point, or averaged over a longer time period, could be identified.

METHODS

This was a retrospective time-series analysis of observational administrative data. Data were extracted from the Hospital Episodes Statistics database for two exemplar aspects of clinical practice within the field of urology: (a) use of ureteric stents on first emergency admission to treat urinary tract stones and (b) waiting times for definitive surgery for urinary retention. Data were categorized into 3-month time periods and three rules were used to detect unwarranted variation in the outcome metric relative to the national average: (a) two of any three consecutive values greater than two standard deviations above the mean, (b) four of any five consecutive values greater than one standard deviation above the mean, and (c) eight consecutive values above the mean.

RESULTS

For the urinary tract stones dataset, 24 trusts were identified as having unwarranted variation in the outcomes using funnel plots and 23 trusts using the time-series method. For the urinary retention data, 18 trusted were identified as having unwarranted variation in the outcomes using funnel plots and 22 trusts using the time-series method.

CONCLUSIONS

The time-series method may complement other methods to help identify unwarranted variation.

An observational study of volume-outcome effects for robot-assisted radical prostatectomy in England

OBJECTIVES

To investigate volume-outcome relationships in robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP) for cancer using data from the Hospital Episodes Statistics (HES) database for England.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data for all adult, elective RPs for cancer during the period January 2013-December 2018 (inclusive) were extracted from the HES database. The HES database records data on all National Health Service (NHS) hospital admissions in England. Data were extracted for the NHS trust and surgeon undertaking the procedure, the surgical technique used (laparoscopic, open or robot-assisted), hospital length of stay (LOS), emergency readmissions, and deaths. Multilevel modelling was used to adjust for hierarchy and covariates.

RESULTS

Data were available for 35 629 RPs (27 945 RARPs). The proportion of procedures conducted as RARPs increased from 53.2% in 2013 to 92.6% in 2018. For RARP, there was a significant relationship between 90-day emergency hospital readmission (primary outcome) and trust volume (odds ratio [OR] for volume decrease of 10 procedures: 0.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.99-1.00; P = 0.037) and surgeon volume (OR for volume decrease of 10 procedures: 0.99, 95% CI 0.99-1.00; P = 0.013) in the previous year. From lowest to highest volume category there was a decline in the adjusted proportion of patients readmitted as an emergency at 90 days from 10.6% (0-49 procedures) to 7.0% (≥300 procedures) for trusts and from 9.4% (0-9 procedures) to 8.3% (≥100 procedures) for surgeons. LOS was also significantly associated with surgeon and trust volume, although 1-year mortality was associated with neither.

CONCLUSIONS

There is evidence of a volume-outcome relationship for RARP in England and minimising low-volume RARP will improve patient outcomes. Nevertheless, the observed effect size was relatively modest, and stakeholders should be realistic when evaluating the likely impact of further centralisation at a population level.

The volume and outcome relationship for thyroidectomy in England

Purpose

The delivery of surgical care in England has seen a momentum towards centralisation within larger volume hospitals and surgical teams. The aim of this study was to investigate outcomes in England in relationship to hospital and surgeon annual volumes for total thyroidectomy.

Methods

Data were extracted from the Hospital Episodes Statistics (HES) database for England. A 6-year period (April 2012–March 2018 inclusive) for all adult admissions for thyroidectomy was used in the analysis. The primary outcome measure used was a length of hospital stay greater than 2 days or an emergency readmission within 30 days following surgery. This was used as a proxy for surgical complications. A multilevel modelling strategy was used to adjust for hierarchy and potentially confounding.

Results

Data for 22,823 total thyroidectomies across 144 hospital trusts were used for analysis. For total thyroidectomy, larger volume surgeons had reduced levels of post-surgical complications; length of stay > 2 and > 4 days; emergency readmission at 30 days; and hypoparathyroidism, vocal cord palsy, stridor, and tracheostomy at 1-year post-surgery. Larger hospital volume was associated with lower levels of emergency readmission at 30 days and hypoparathyroidism at 1 year.

Conclusions

There is significant correlation between surgeon volume and clinical outcome for total thyroidectomy. The relationship was approximately linear, and a low-volume threshold could not be defined.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00423-021-02223-8.

Prevalence estimates of dementia in older adults in rural Kilimanjaro 2009-2010 and 2018-2019: is there evidence of changing prevalence?

INTRODUCTION

Although limited, existing epidemiological data on dementia in sub-Saharan Africa indicate that prevalence may be increasing; contrasting with recent decreases observed in high-income countries. We have previously reported the age-adjusted prevalence of dementia in rural Tanzania in 2009-2010 as 6.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.9-7.9) in individuals aged ≥70 years. We aimed to repeat a community-based dementia prevalence study in the same setting to assess whether prevalence has changed.

METHODS

This was a two-phase door-to-door community-based cross-sectional survey in Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. In Phase I, trained primary health workers screened all consenting individuals aged ≥60 years from 12 villages using previously validated, locally developed, tools (IDEA cognitive screen and IDEA-Instrumental Activities of Daily Living questionnaire). Screening was conducted using a mobile digital application (app) on a hand-held tablet. In Phase II, a stratified sample of those identified in Phase I were clinically assessed using the DSM-5 criteria and diagnoses subsequently confirmed by consensus panel.

RESULTS

Of 3011 people who consented, 424 screened positive for probable dementia and 227 for possible dementia. During clinical assessment in Phase II, 105 individuals met DSM-5 dementia criteria. The age-adjusted prevalence of dementia was 4.6% (95% CI 2.9-6.4) in those aged ≥60 years and 8.9% (95% CI 6.1-11.8) in those aged ≥70 years. Prevalence rates increased significantly with age.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of dementia in this rural Tanzanian population appears to have increased since 2010, although not significantly. Dementia is likely to become a significant health burden in this population as demographic transition continues.

Volume-outcome relationship for adrenalectomy: analysis of an administrative dataset for the Getting It Right First Time Programme

BACKGROUND

A minimum volume threshold of at least six procedures per annum per surgeon has been set in UK and European guidelines for adrenal surgery. The aim of this study was to investigate outcomes for adrenal surgery in England relative to annual surgeon and hospital trust volume.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the Hospital Episodes Statistics database for England. A 6-year period (January 2013 to December 2018 inclusive) for all adult admissions for unilateral adrenal surgery was used. The primary outcome measure was an emergency readmission within 30 days of discharge following surgery. Procedures were categorized as open or minimally invasive surgery for analysis. Multilevel modelling was used to adjust for hierarchy and potential confounders.

RESULTS

Data for 4189 adrenalectomies were identified. Only one third of surgeons (who operated on just over a half of all patients) performed at least six procedures in the year prior to the index procedure. For open surgery, emergency readmission rates fell significantly from 15.2 to 6.4 per cent for surgeons and from 13.2 to 6.1 per cent for trusts between the lowest- and highest-volume categories. Significant, but less dramatic falls were also seen for minimally invasive surgery.

CONCLUSION

A volume-outcome effect was identified for adrenal surgery in England. Minimum volume thresholds should be set, although these may need to be more ambitious than the current threshold if outcomes are to be optimized.

Variability in COVID-19 in-hospital mortality rates between national health service trusts and regions in England: A national observational study for the Getting It Right First Time Programme

BACKGROUND

A key first step in optimising COVID-19 patient outcomes during future case-surges is to learn from the experience within individual hospitals during the early stages of the pandemic. The aim of this study was to investigate the extent of variation in COVID-19 outcomes between National Health Service (NHS) hospital trusts and regions in England using data from March-July 2020.

METHODS

This was a retrospective observational study using the Hospital Episode Statistics administrative dataset. Patients aged ≥ 18 years who had a diagnosis of COVID-19 during a hospital stay in England that was completed between March 1st and July 31st, 2020 were included. In-hospital mortality was the primary outcome of interest. In secondary analysis, critical care admission, length of stay and mortality within 30 days of discharge were also investigated. Multilevel logistic regression was used to adjust for covariates.

FINDINGS

There were 86,356 patients with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 included in the study, of whom 22,944 (26.6%) died in hospital with COVID-19 as the primary cause of death. After adjusting for covariates, the extent of the variation in-hospital mortality rates between hospital trusts and regions was relatively modest. Trusts with the largest baseline number of beds and a greater proportion of patients admitted to critical care had the lowest in-hospital mortality rates.

INTERPRETATION

There is little evidence of clustering of deaths within hospital trusts. There may be opportunities to learn from the experience of individual trusts to help prepare hospitals for future case-surges.

Changes in COVID-19 in-hospital mortality in hospitalised adults in England over the first seven months of the pandemic: An observational study using administrative data

Background

Previous research by our team identified factors associated with in-hospital mortality in patients with a diagnosis of COVID-19 in England between March and May 2020. The aim of the current paper was to investigate the changing role of demographics and co-morbidity, with a particular focus on ethnicity, as risk factors for in-hospital mortality over an extended period.

Methods

This was a retrospective observational study using the Hospital Episode Statistics administrative dataset. All patients aged ≥ 18 years in England with a diagnosis of COVID-19 who had a hospital stay that was completed (discharged alive or died) between 1st March and 30th September 2020 were included. In-hospital mortality was the primary outcome of interest. Multilevel logistic regression was used to model the relationship between in-hospital mortality with adjustment for the covariates: age, sex, deprivation, ethnicity, date of discharge and a number of comorbidities.

Findings

Compared to patients in March-May (n = 93,379), patients in June-September (n = 24,059) were younger, more likely to be female and of Asian ethnicity, but less likely to be of Black ethnicity. In-hospital mortality rates, adjusted for covariates, declined from 33–34% in March to 11–12% in September. Compared to the March-May period, Bangladeshi, Indian and Other Asian ethnicity patients had a lower relative odds of death (compared to White ethnicity patients) during June-September. For Pakistani patients, the decline in-hospital mortality rates was more modest across the same time periods with the relative odds of death increasing slightly (odds ratio (95% confidence interval)) 1.24 (1.10 to 1.40) and 1.35 (1.08 to 1.69) respectively. From March-May to June-September the relative odds of death in patients with a diagnosis of metastatic carcinoma increased (1.90 (1.73 to 2.08) vs 3.01 (2.55 to 3.54)) but decreased for male patients (1.44 (1.39 to 1.49) vs 1.27 (1.17 to 1.38)) and patients with obesity (1.42 (1.34 to 1.52) vs 0.97 (0.83 to 1.14)) and diabetes without complications (1.14 (1.10 to 1.19) vs 0.95 (0.87 to 1.05)).

Interpretation

In-hospital mortality rates for patients with a diagnosis of COVID-19 have fallen substantially and there is evidence that the relative importance of some covariates has changed since the start of the pandemic. These patterns should continue to be tracked as new variants of the virus emerge, vaccination programmes are rolled out and hospital pressures fluctuate.

Funding

None.