Risk calculator for incident atrial fibrillation across a range of prediction horizons

BACKGROUND

The increasing burden of atrial fibrillation (AF) emphasizes the need to identify high-risk individuals for enrolment in clinical trials of AF screening and primary prevention. We aimed to develop prediction models to identify individuals at high-risk of AF across prediction horizons from 6-months to 10-years.

METHODS

We used secondary-care linked primary care electronic health record data from individuals aged ≥30 years without known AF in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink-GOLD dataset between January 2, 1998 and November 30, 2018; randomly divided into derivation (80%) and validation (20%) datasets. Models were derived using logistic regression from known AF risk factors for incident AF in prediction periods of 6 months, 1-year, 2-years, 5-years, and 10-years. Performance was evaluated using in the validation dataset with bootstrap validation with 200 samples, and compared against the CHA2DS2-VASc and C2HEST scores.

RESULTS

Of 2,081,139 individuals in the cohort (1,664,911 in the development dataset, 416,228 in the validation dataset), the mean age was 49.9 (SD 15.4), 50.7% were women, and 86.7% were white. New cases of AF were 7,386 (0.4%) within 6 months, 15,349 (0.7%) in 1 year, 38,487 (1.8%) in 5 years, and 79,997 (3.8%) by 10 years. Valvular heart disease and heart failure were the strongest predictors, and association of hypertension with AF increased at longer prediction horizons. The optimal risk models incorporated age, sex, ethnicity, and 8 comorbidities. The models demonstrated good-to-excellent discrimination and strong calibration across prediction horizons (AUROC, 95%CI, calibration slope: 6-months, 0.803, 0.789-0.821, 0.952; 1-year, 0.807, 0.794-0.819, 0.962; 2-years, 0.815, 0.807-0.823, 0.973; 5-years, 0.807, 0.803-0.812, 1.000; 10-years 0.780, 0.777-0.784, 1.010), and superior to the CHA2DS2-VASc and C2HEST scores. The models are available as a web-based FIND-AF calculator.

CONCLUSIONS

The FIND-AF models demonstrate high discrimination and calibration across short- and long-term prediction horizons in 2 million individuals. Their utility to inform trial enrolment and clinical decisions for AF screening and primary prevention requires further study.

Sex Differences in Bleeding Risk Associated With Antithrombotic Therapy Following Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Background: Antithrombotic therapy is crucial for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but women with CVD may face increased bleeding complications post-percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) under antithrombotic therapy. However, women are often underrepresented in clinical trials in this field, so evidence for sex-specific recommendations is lacking. Methods and Results: A search on PubMed was conducted for English-language articles addressing bleeding complications and antithrombotic therapy in women. Despite women potentially showing higher baseline platelet responsiveness than men, the clinical implications remain unclear. Concerning antiplatelet therapy post-PCI, although women have an elevated bleeding risk in the acute phase, no sex differences were observed in the chronic phase. However, women require specific considerations for factors such as age, renal function, and weight when determining the dose and duration of antiplatelet therapy. Regarding anticoagulation post-PCI, direct oral anticoagulants may pose a lower bleeding risk in women compared with warfarin. Concerning triple antithrombotic therapy (TAT) post-PCI for patients with atrial fibrillation, there is a lack of evidence on whether sex differences should be considered in the duration and regimen of TAT. Conclusions: Recent findings on sex differences in post-PCI bleeding complications did not provide enough evidence to recommend specific therapies for women. Further studies are needed to address this gap and recommend optimal antithrombotic therapy post-PCI for women.

Cost-effectiveness of behavioural counselling intervention compared with non-intervention for adult patients with metabolic syndrome to prevent cardiovascular diseases and type 2 diabetes in Japan: a microsimulation modelling study

OBJECTIVES

Nationwide lifestyle intervention-specific health guidance (SHG) in Japan-employs counselling and education to change unhealthy behaviours that contribute to metabolic syndrome, especially obesity or abdominal obesity. We aimed to perform a model-based economic evaluation of SHG in a low participation rate setting.

DESIGN

A hypothetical population, comprised 50 000 Japanese aged 40 years who met the criteria of the SHG, used a microsimulation using the Markov model to evaluate SHG's cost-effectiveness compared with non-SHG. This hypothetical population was simulated over a 35-year time horizon.

SETTING

SHG is conducted annually by all Japanese insurers.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Model parameters, such as costs and health outcomes (including quality-adjusted life-years, QALYs), were based on existing literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated from the healthcare payer's perspective. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were conducted to evaluate the uncertainty around the model input parameters.

RESULTS

The simulation revealed that the total costs per person in the SHG group decreased by JPY53 014 (US$480) compared with that in the non-SHG group, and the QALYs increased by 0.044, wherein SHG was considered the dominant strategy despite the low participation rates. PSA indicated that the credibility intervals (2.5th-97.5th percentile) of the incremental costs and the incremental QALYs with the SHG group compared with the non-SHG group were -JPY687 376 to JPY85 197 (-US$6226 to US$772) and -0.009 to 0.350 QALYs, respectively. Each scenario analysis indicated that programmes for improving both blood pressure and blood glucose levels among other risk factors for metabolic syndrome are essential for improving cost-effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that even small effects of counselling and education on behavioural modification may lead to the prevention of acute life-threatening events and chronic diseases, in addition to the reduction of medication resulting from metabolic syndrome, which results in cost savings.

The association between the estimated glomerular filtration rate and cognitive impairment: the Suita Study

This cross-sectional study investigated the association between the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), a measure of chronic kidney disease (CKD), and cognitive impairment. We used data from 6215 Japanese individuals registered in the Suita Study. Cognitive impairment was defined as a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score of ≤ 26. Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) of cognitive impairment for eGFR 45-59.9 and < 45 mL/min/1.73 m2 (mild and moderate-to-severe eGFR reductions) compared to eGFR ≥ 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 (normal eGFR). The results showed that both mild and moderate-to-severe eGFR reductions were associated with cognitive impairment: ORs (95% CIs) = 1.49 (1.22-1.83) and 2.35 (1.69-3.26), respectively (p-trend < 0.001). Each increment of eGFR by 10 mL/min/1.73m2 was associated with 4.8% lower odds of cognitive impairment. In conclusion, eGFR reduction was associated with cognitive impairment. Managing CKD is essential for preventing cognitive impairment.

Predicting incident heart failure from population-based nationwide electronic health records: protocol for a model development and validation study

INTRODUCTION

Heart failure (HF) is increasingly common and associated with excess morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs. Treatment of HF can alter the disease trajectory and reduce clinical events in HF. However, many cases of HF remain undetected until presentation with more advanced symptoms, often requiring hospitalisation. Predicting incident HF is challenging and statistical models are limited by performance and scalability in routine clinical practice. An HF prediction model implementable in nationwide electronic health records (EHRs) could enable targeted diagnostics to enable earlier identification of HF.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will investigate a range of development techniques (including logistic regression and supervised machine learning methods) on routinely collected primary care EHRs to predict risk of new-onset HF over 1, 5 and 10 years prediction horizons. The Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD)-GOLD dataset will be used for derivation (training and testing) and the CPRD-AURUM dataset for external validation. Both comprise large cohorts of patients, representative of the population of England in terms of age, sex and ethnicity. Primary care records are linked at patient level to secondary care and mortality data. The performance of the prediction model will be assessed by discrimination, calibration and clinical utility. We will only use variables routinely accessible in primary care.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Permissions for CPRD-GOLD and CPRD-AURUM datasets were obtained from CPRD (ref no: 21_000324). The CPRD ethical approval committee approved the study. The results will be submitted as a research paper for publication to a peer-reviewed journal and presented at peer-reviewed conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION DETAILS

The study was registered on Clinical Trials.gov (NCT05756127). A systematic review for the project was registered on PROSPERO (registration number: CRD42022380892).

Common Carotid Artery Stenosis Degree as a Predictor of Cardiovascular Disease in a General Population: The Suita Study

BACKGROUND

The utility of screening for the degree of common carotid artery (CCA) stenosis as a predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a general population remains unclear.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We studied 4775 Japanese men and women whose CCA was measured using bilateral carotid ultrasonography at baseline (April 1994-August 2001). We calculated the degree of stenosis as a percentage of the stenotic area of the lumen in the cross-section perpendicular to the long axis. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs for incident CVD and its subtypes according to the degree of CCA stenosis. During the median 14.2 years of follow-up, 385 incident CVD events (159 coronary heart disease and 226 stroke) were documented. The degree of CCA stenosis was associated with increased risks of incident CVD, coronary heart disease, and stroke, with multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CIs) for <25%, 25%-49%, and ≥50% stenosis with plaque compared with no CCA plaque of 1.37 (1.07-1.76), 1.72 (1.23-2.40), and 2.49 (1.69-3.67), respectively. Adding the CCA stenosis degree to traditional CVD risk factors increased Harrell's C statistics (0.772 [95% CI, 0.751-0.794] to 0.778 [95% CI, 0.758-0.799]; P=0.04) and improved the 10-year risk prediction ability (integrated discrimination improvement, 0.0129 [95% CI, 0.0078-0.0179]; P<0.001; continuous net reclassification improvement, 0.1598 [95% CI, 0.0297-0.2881]; P=0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The degree of CCA stenosis may be used as a predictive marker for the development of CVD in the general population.

Temporal trends of cause-specific mortality after diagnosis of atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Reports of outcomes after atrial fibrillation (AF) diagnosis are conflicting. The aim of this study was to investigate mortality and hospitalization rates following AF diagnosis over time, by cause and by patient features.

METHODS

Individuals aged ≥16 years with a first diagnosis of AF were identified from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink-GOLD dataset from 1 January 2001, to 31 December 2017. The primary outcomes were all-cause and cause-specific mortality and hospitalization at 1 year following diagnosis. Poisson regression was used to calculate rate ratios (RRs) for mortality and incidence RRs (IRRs) for hospitalization and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing 2001/02 and 2016/17, adjusted for age, sex, region, socio-economic status, and 18 major comorbidities.

RESULTS

Of 72 412 participants, mean (standard deviation) age was 75.6 (12.4) years, and 44 762 (61.8%) had ≥3 comorbidities. All-cause mortality declined (RR 2016/17 vs. 2001/02 0.72; 95% CI 0.65-0.80), with large declines for cardiovascular (RR 0.46; 95% CI 0.37-0.58) and cerebrovascular mortality (RR 0.41; 95% CI 0.29-0.60) but not for non-cardio/cerebrovascular causes of death (RR 0.91; 95% CI 0.80-1.04). In 2016/17, deaths caused from dementia (67, 8.0%), outstripped deaths from acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and acute stroke combined (56, 6.7%, P < .001). Overall hospitalization rates increased (IRR 2016/17 vs. 2001/02 1.17; 95% CI, 1.13-1.22), especially for non-cardio/cerebrovascular causes (IRR 1.42; 95% CI 1.39-1.45). Older, more deprived, and hospital-diagnosed AF patients experienced higher event rates.

CONCLUSIONS

After AF diagnosis, cardio/cerebrovascular mortality and hospitalization has declined, whilst hospitalization for non-cardio/cerebrovascular disease has increased.

Inequalities in care delivery and outcomes for myocardial infarction, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and aortic stenosis in the United Kingdom

Cardiovascular diseases are a leading cause of death and disability globally, with inequalities in burden and care delivery evident in Europe. To address this challenge, The Lancet Regional Health-Europe convened experts from a range of countries to summarise the current state of knowledge on cardiovascular disease inequalities across Europe. This Series paper presents evidence from nationwide secondary care registries and primary care healthcare records regarding inequalities in care delivery and outcomes for myocardial infarction, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and aortic stenosis in the National Health Service (NHS) across the United Kingdom (UK) by age, sex, ethnicity and geographical location. Data suggest that women and older people less frequently receive guideline-recommended treatment than men and younger people. There are limited publications about ethnicity in the UK for the studied disease areas. Finally, there is inter-healthcare provider variation in cardiovascular care provision, especially for transcatheter aortic valve implantation, which is associated with differing outcomes for patients with the same disease. Providing equitable care is a founding principle of the UK NHS, which is well positioned to deliver innovative policy responses to reverse observed inequalities. Understanding differences in care may enable the implementation of appropriate strategies to mitigate differences in outcomes.

Prediction models for heart failure in the community: A systematic review and meta-analysis

AIMS

Multivariable prediction models can be used to estimate risk of incident heart failure (HF) in the general population. A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed to determine the performance of models.

METHODS AND RESULTS

From inception to 3 November 2022 MEDLINE and EMBASE databases were searched for studies of multivariable models derived, validated and/or augmented for HF prediction in community-based cohorts. Discrimination measures for models with c-statistic data from ≥3 cohorts were pooled by Bayesian meta-analysis, with heterogeneity assessed through a 95% prediction interval (PI). Risk of bias was assessed using PROBAST. We included 36 studies with 59 prediction models. In meta-analysis, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) risk score (summary c-statistic 0.802, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.707-0.883), GRaph-based Attention Model (GRAM; 0.791, 95% CI 0.677-0.885), Pooled Cohort equations to Prevent Heart Failure (PCP-HF) white men model (0.820, 95% CI 0.792-0.843), PCP-HF white women model (0.852, 95% CI 0.804-0.895), and REverse Time AttentIoN model (RETAIN; 0.839, 95% CI 0.748-0.916) had a statistically significant 95% PI and excellent discrimination performance. The ARIC risk score and PCP-HF models had significant summary discrimination among cohorts with a uniform prediction window. 77% of model results were at high risk of bias, certainty of evidence was low, and no model had a clinical impact study.

CONCLUSIONS

Prediction models for estimating risk of incident HF in the community demonstrate excellent discrimination performance. Their usefulness remains uncertain due to high risk of bias, low certainty of evidence, and absence of clinical effectiveness research.

Prognosis, characteristics, and provision of care for patients with the unspecified heart failure electronic health record phenotype: a population-based linked cohort study of 95262 individuals

Background

Whether the accuracy of the phenotype ascribed to patients in electronic health records (EHRs) is associated with variation in prognosis and care provision is unknown. We investigated this for heart failure (HF, characterised as HF with preserved ejection fraction [HFpEF], HF with reduced ejection fraction [HFrEF] and unspecified HF).

Methods

We included individuals aged 16 years and older with a new diagnosis of HF between January 2, 1998 and February 28, 2022 from linked primary and secondary care records in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink in England. We investigated the provision of guideline-recommended diagnostic investigations and pharmacological treatments. The primary outcome was a composite of HF hospitalisation or all-cause death, and secondary outcomes were time to HF hospitalisation, all-cause death and death from cardiovascular causes. We used Kaplan-Meier curves and log rank tests to compare survival across HF phenotypes and adjusted for potential confounders in Cox proportional hazards regression analyses.

Findings

Of a cohort of 95,262 individuals, 1271 (1.3%) were recorded as having HFpEF, 10,793 (11.3%) as HFrEF and 83,198 (87.3%) as unspecified HF. Individuals recorded as unspecified HF were older with a higher prevalence of dementia. Unspecified HF, compared to patients with a recorded HF phenotype, were less likely to receive specialist assessment, echocardiography or natriuretic peptide testing in the peri-diagnostic period, or receive angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, beta blockers or mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists up to 12 months after diagnosis (risk ratios compared to HFrEF, 0.64, 95% CI 0.63-0.64; 0.59, 0.58-0.60; 0.57, 0.55-0.59; respectively) and had significantly worse outcomes (adjusted hazard ratios compared to HFrEF, HF hospitalisation and death 1.66, 95% CI 1.59-1.74; all-cause mortality 2.00, 1.90-2.10; cardiovascular death 1.77, 1.65-1.90).

Interpretation

Our findings suggested that absence of specification of HF phenotype in routine EHRs is inversely associated with clinical investigations, treatments and survival, representing an actionable target to mitigate prognostic and health resource burden.

Funding

Japan Research Foundation for Healthy Aging and British Heart Foundation.

Serum cholesterol levels and the risk of brain natriuretic peptide-diagnosed heart failure in postmenopausal women: a population-based prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Hormonal changes during menopause can disturb serum cholesterol which is closely associated with cardiovascular disease. This study investigated the prospective association between serum cholesterol and heart failure (HF) risk in postmenopausal women.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 1,307 Japanese women, aged 55 to 94 years. All women had no history of HF, and their baseline brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels were less than 100 pg/mL. During the follow-ups conducted every 2 years, HF was diagnosed among women who developed BNP of 100 pg/mL or greater. Cox proportional hazard models were applied to calculate hazard ratios and 95% CI of HF for women per their baseline total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels. The Cox regression models were adjusted for age, body mass index, smoking, alcohol drinking, hypertension, diabetes, cardiac murmurs, arrhythmia, stroke or ischemic heart disease, chronic kidney disease, and lipid-lowering agent use.

RESULTS

Within an 8-year median follow-up, 153 participants developed HF. In the multivariable-adjusted model, women with total cholesterol of 240 mg/dL or greater (compared with 160-199 mg/dL) and HDL-C of 100 mg/dL or greater (compared with 50-59 mg/dL) showed an increased risk of HF: hazard ratios (95% CI) = 1.70 (1.04-2.77) and 2.70 (1.10-6.64), respectively. The results remained significant after further adjusting for baseline BNP. No associations were observed with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol.

CONCLUSIONS

Total cholesterol of 240 mg/dL or greater and HDL-C of 100 mg/dL or greater were positively associated with the risk of HF in postmenopausal Japanese women.

Incident cardiovascular, renal, metabolic diseases and death in individuals identified for risk-guided atrial fibrillation screening: a nationwide cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Risk-guided atrial fibrillation (AF) screening may be an opportunity to prevent adverse events in addition to stroke. We compared events rates for new diagnoses of cardio-renal-metabolic diseases and death in individuals identified at higher versus lower-predicted AF risk.

METHODS

From the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink-GOLD dataset, 2 January 1998-30 November 2018, we identified individuals aged ≥30 years without known AF. The risk of AF was estimated using the FIND-AF (Future Innovations in Novel Detection of Atrial Fibrillation) risk score. We calculated cumulative incidence rates and fit Fine and Gray's models at 1, 5 and 10 years for nine diseases and death adjusting for competing risks.

RESULTS

Of 416 228 individuals in the cohort, 82 942 were identified as higher risk for AF. Higher-predicted risk, compared with lower-predicted risk, was associated with incident chronic kidney disease (cumulative incidence per 1000 persons at 10 years 245.2; HR 6.85, 95% CI 6.70 to 7.00; median time to event 5.44 years), heart failure (124.7; 12.54, 12.08 to 13.01; 4.06), diabetes mellitus (123.3; 2.05, 2.00 to 2.10; 3.45), stroke/transient ischaemic attack (118.9; 8.07, 7.80 to 8.34; 4.27), myocardial infarction (69.6; 5.02, 4.82 to 5.22; 4.32), peripheral vascular disease (44.6; 6.62, 6.28 to 6.98; 4.28), valvular heart disease (37.8; 6.49, 6.14 to 6.85; 4.54), aortic stenosis (18.7; 9.98, 9.16 to 10.87; 4.41) and death from any cause (273.9; 10.45, 10.23 to 10.68; 4.75). The higher-risk group constituted 74% of deaths from cardiovascular or cerebrovascular causes (8582 of 11 676).

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals identified for risk-guided AF screening are at risk of new diseases across the cardio-renal-metabolic spectrum and death, and may benefit from interventions beyond ECG monitoring.

Prediction of short-term atrial fibrillation risk using primary care electronic health records

OBJECTIVE

Atrial fibrillation (AF) screening by age achieves a low yield and misses younger individuals. We aimed to develop an algorithm in nationwide routinely collected primary care data to predict the risk of incident AF within 6 months (Future Innovations in Novel Detection of Atrial Fibrillation (FIND-AF)).

METHODS

We used primary care electronic health record data from individuals aged ≥30 years without known AF in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink-GOLD dataset between 2 January 1998 and 30 November 2018, randomly divided into training (80%) and testing (20%) datasets. We trained a random forest classifier using age, sex, ethnicity and comorbidities. Prediction performance was evaluated in the testing dataset with internal bootstrap validation with 200 samples, and compared against the CHA2DS2-VASc (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age >75 (2 points), Stroke/transient ischaemic attack/thromboembolism (2 points), Vascular disease, Age 65-74, Sex category) and C2HEST (Coronary artery disease/Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1 point each), Hypertension, Elderly (age ≥75, 2 points), Systolic heart failure, Thyroid disease (hyperthyroidism)) scores. Cox proportional hazard models with competing risk of death were fit for incident longer-term AF between higher and lower FIND-AF-predicted risk.

RESULTS

Of 2 081 139 individuals in the cohort, 7386 developed AF within 6 months. FIND-AF could be applied to all records. In the testing dataset (n=416 228), discrimination performance was strongest for FIND-AF (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.824, 95% CI 0.814 to 0.834) compared with CHA2DS2-VASc (0.784, 0.773 to 0.794) and C2HEST (0.757, 0.744 to 0.770), and robust by sex and ethnic group. The higher predicted risk cohort, compared with lower predicted risk, had a 20-fold higher 6-month incidence rate for AF and higher long-term hazard for AF (HR 8.75, 95% CI 8.44 to 9.06).

CONCLUSIONS

FIND-AF, a machine learning algorithm applicable at scale in routinely collected primary care data, identifies people at higher risk of short-term AF.

Significance of coronary artery calcification for predicting major adverse cardiovascular events: results from the NADESICO study in Japan

BACKGROUND

We aimed to determine the usefulness and sex differences of assessment of coronary artery calcification (CAC) with cardiovascular risk factors and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in Japanese patients.

METHODS

In a nationwide, multicenter, prospective cohort study, 1187 patients with suspected coronary artery disease who underwent coronary computed tomography were enrolled. MACE included cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, revascularization, and hospitalization for unstable angina, heart failure, or aortic disease. The concordance (C)-statistics were used to assess the relationships among the Suita risk score, CAC score, and incident MACE, with emphasis on sex differences.

RESULTS

The final analysis included 982 patients (mean age, 64.7 ± 6.6 years; 53.9 % male patients). MACE developed in 65 male and 21 female patients during a median follow-up of 1480 days. The C-statistics calculated using Suita score for MACE were 0.650, 0.633, and 0.569 in overall, male, and female patients, respectively. In overall patients, the C-statistic significantly increased in combined models of Agatston CAC scores of ≥100, 200, 300, or 400 and the Suita score. In each sex, the C-statistics significantly increased in the model that added an Agatston CAC score of ≥100 and ≥ 200 (+0.049 and + 0.057) in male patients, and ≥ 400 (+0.119) in females, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Adding assessment of Agatston CAC scores to Suita score was useful to improve the predictive ability for future MACE in Japanese patients. Agatston CAC scores of ≥100 or 200 in male and ≥ 400 in female patients in addition to Suita score improved the MACE risk prediction.

Comparison of care and outcomes for myocardial infarction by heart failure status between United Kingdom and Japan

AIMS

Prognosis for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is worse when heart failure is present on admission. Understanding clinical practice in different health systems can identify areas for quality improvement initiatives to improve outcomes. In the absence of international comparison studies, we aimed to compare treatments and in-hospital outcomes of patients admitted with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) by heart failure status in two healthcare-wide cohorts.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used two nationwide databases to capture admissions with STEMI in the United Kingdom (Myocardial ischemia National Audit Project, MINAP) and Japan (Japanese Registry of All Cardiac and Vascular Diseases-Diagnostic Procedure Combination, JROAD-DPC) between 2012 and 2017. Participants were stratified using the HF Killip classification into three groups; Killip 1: no congestive heart failure, Killip 2-3: congestive heart failure, Killip 4: cardiogenic shock. We calculated crude rate and case mix standardized risk ratios (CSRR) for use of treatments and in-hospital death. Patients were younger in the United Kingdom (65.4 [13.6] vs. 69.1 [13.0] years) and more likely to have co-morbidities in the United Kingdom except for diabetes and hypertension. Japan had a higher percentage of heart failure and cardiogenic shock patients among STEMI during admission than that in the United Kingdom. Primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI) rates were lower in the United Kingdom compared with Japan, especially for patients presenting with Killip 2-3 class heart failure (pPCI use in patients with Killip 1, 2-3, 4: Japan, 86.2%, 81.7%, 78.7%; United Kingdom, 79.6%, 58.2% and 79.9%). In contrast, beta-blocker use was consistently lower in Japan than in the United Kingdom (61.4% vs. 90.2%) across Killip classifications and length of hospital stay longer (17.0 [9.7] vs. 5.0 [7.4] days). The crude rate of in-hospital mortality increased with increasing Killip class group. Both the crude rate and CSRR was higher in the United Kingdom compared with Japan for Killip 2-3 (15.8% vs. 6.4%, CSRR 1.80 95% CI 1.73-1.87, P < 0.001), and similar for Killip 4 (36.9% vs. 36.3%, CSRR 1.11 95% CI 1.08-1.13, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Important differences in the care and outcomes for STEMI with heart failure exist between the United Kingdom and Japan. Specifically, in the United Kingdom, there was a lower rate of pPCI, and in Japan, fewer patients were prescribed beta blockers and hospital length of stay was longer. This international comparison can inform targeted quality improvement programmes to narrow the outcome gap between health systems.

Combination of coronary CT angiography, FFRCT , and risk factors in the prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events in patients suspected CAD

BACKGROUND

To examine the utility of fractional flow reserve by coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography (FFR_CT ) for predicting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD).

METHODS

This was a nationwide multicenter prospective cohort study including consecutive 1187 patients aged 50-74 years with suspected CAD and had available coronary CT angiography (CCTA). In patients with ≥50% coronary artery stenosis (CAS), FFR_CT was further analyzed. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to examine the association of FFR_CT and cardiovascular risk factors with incident MACE within 2 years.

RESULTS

Among 933 patients with available information on MACE within 2 years after enrollment, the incidence rate of MACE was higher in 281 patients with CAS than in those without CAS (6.11 vs. 1.16 per 100 patient-year). In 241 patients with CAS, the Cox proportional hazards analysis showed that FFR_CT as well as diabetes mellitus and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level were independently associated with incident MACE. Moreover, the hazard ratio was significantly higher in patients harboring all three factors compared to those harboring 0-2 of the three factors (6.01; 95% confidence interval: 2.77-13.03).

CONCLUSIONS

Combinatorial assessment using CCTA for stenosis, FFR_CT , and risk factors was useful for more accurate prediction of MACE in patients with suspected CAD. Among patients with CAS, those with lower FFR_CT , diabetes mellitus, and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level were at highest risk for MACE during the 2-year period following enrollment.

Impact of a national screening programme on obesity and cardiovascular risk factors

AIMS

The benefits of nationwide screening and tailored health guidance on improving obesity and cardiovascular risk factors is uncertain. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association of the national health screening and tailored health guidance with population health outcomes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A fuzzy regression discontinuity design analysed data of men and women aged 40-74 years who participated in a nationwide health screening programme in Japan from 1 April 2008 to 31 March 2019 and were recorded in the Japanese National Database. Exposure was assignment to the national health guidance of counselling on healthy lifestyle and clinical follow-up for individuals found to have waist circumference ≥85 cm for men ≥90 cm for women with one or more cardiovascular risk factors during annual national health screening. The primary outcomes were changes in obesity status and cardiovascular risk factors 1 year after screening. Of 3 490 112 men and 2 328 929 women, the assignment to the health guidance resulted in small reductions in obesity parameters: waist circumference; men, -0.27 cm [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.29 to -0.26]; women -0.34 (-0.41 to -0.27); body mass index, -0.07 kg/m2 (-0.075 to -0.066); -0.11 kg/m2 (-0.13 to -0.10); weight, -0.21 kg (-0.22 to -0.19); -0.28 kg (-0.32 to -0.24) that attenuated over time. Short-term improvements were also observed in blood pressure, haemoglobin A1c, fasting glucose and triglycerides across both sexes.

CONCLUSION

A nationwide health screening programme was associated with only small, and transient improvements in obesity and cardiovascular risk factors.

Risks and benefits of oral anticoagulants for stroke prophylaxis in atrial fibrillation according to body mass index: Nationwide cohort study of primary care records in England

BACKGROUND

Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) are effective and safe alternatives to warfarin for stroke prophylaxis for atrial fibrillation (AF). Whether this extends to patients at the extremes of body mass index (BMI) is unclear.

METHODS

Using linked primary and secondary data, Jan 1, 2010 to Nov 30, 2018, we included CHA₂DS₂-VAS_C score ≥3 in women and ≥2 in men with AF treated with oral anticoagulants (OACs). Outcomes were ischaemic stroke, major bleeding and all-cause mortality by World Health Organisation BMI classification. Patients who received warfarin were propensity score matched (1:1 ratio) with those who received DOACs and the association of time-varying OAC exposure on outcomes quantified using Cox proportional hazards models.

FINDINGS

We included 29,135 (22,818 warfarin, 6317 DOAC); 585 (2.0%) underweight, 8427 (28.9%) normal weight, 10,705 (36.7%) overweight, 5910 (20.3%) class I obesity and 3508 (12.0%) class II/III obesity. Patients treated with DOACs were older and more comorbid. After 3.7 (SD 2.5) years follow up, there was no difference in risk of ischaemic stroke and major bleeding by BMI category between DOACs and warfarin. Normal weight, overweight and obese class I patients had higher risk of all-cause mortality when treated with DOACs compared with warfarin (HR: 1.45 [95% CI 1.24-1.69], p < 0.001; 1.41 [95% CI 1.19-1.66], p < 0.001; and 1.90 [95% CI 1.50-2.39], p < 0.001), an effect not observed after DOACs became the most common OAC prescription. Amongst underweight patients OAC exposure was associated with greater harm from bleeding than benefit from stroke prevention (benefit to harm ratio, 0.35 [95% CI 0.26-0.44]).

INTERPRETATION

In patients with AF in each BMI classification we found no difference in ischaemic stroke and bleeding risk for DOACs compared with warfarin. Underweight patients experienced divergent risk-benefit patterns from oral anticoagulation compared with other BMI categories.

FUNDING

None.

Liver enzymes, alcohol consumption and the risk of diabetes: the Suita study

AIM

We aimed to investigate the combined impact of liver enzymes and alcohol consumption on the diabetes risk.

METHODS

Data on 5972 non-diabetic participants aged 30-79 years from the Suita study were analyzed. Diabetes incidence was surveyed every 2 years. Current daily alcohol consumption was defined as light drinking (< 23.0 g ethanol/day in men and < 11.5 g in women), moderate drinking (23.0-45.9 g and 11.5-22.9 g), and heavy drinking (≥ 46.0 g and ≥ 23.0 g). The nondrinkers category included both never-drinkers and former drinkers.

RESULTS

During the median follow-up of 13 years, 597 incident diabetes cases were diagnosed. Higher levels of γ-glutamyltransferase (GGT), alanine aminotransferase (GPT), and aspartate aminotransferase (GOT) were associated with an increased diabetes risk, and current light drinkers had a lower risk of diabetes than nondrinkers. No sex differences were observed in these associations. Compared to nondrinkers having the lowest quartiles of liver enzymes, nondrinkers and current moderate/heavy drinkers having the highest quartiles had an increased risk of diabetes. However, no association was observed for current light drinkers having the highest quartiles of liver enzymes; the multivariable hazard ratios (95% CIs) in current light drinkers with the highest quartile of liver enzymes were 1.27 (0.68-2.37) for GGT, 1.05 (0.59-1.89) for GPT, and 0.76 (0.40-1.47) for GOT, respectively.

CONCLUSION

High liver enzymes were associated with an increased diabetes risk. No increased diabetes risk was observed in current light drinkers, even in these who had high levels of liver enzymes.

Temporal trends and patterns in atrial fibrillation incidence: A population-based study of 3·4 million individuals

Background

Population-based studies of atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence are needed to inform health-service planning, but evidence is conflicting. We assessed trends of AF incidence in a large general population cohort from England.

Methods

We used linked primary and secondary electronic health records of 3.4 million individuals. Eligible patients aged 16 years and older contributed data between Jan 2 1998 and Dec 31 2017. For patients with incident AF, we extracted baseline characteristics, comorbidities, socioeconomic status and geographic region. We calculated standardised rates by applying direct age and sex standardisation to the 2013 European Standard Population. We applied year-specific, age-specific and sex-specific incidence to UK census mid-year population estimates for yearly total incident AF.

Findings

Comparing 2017 to 1998 standardised AF incidence increased by 30% (322 vs. 247 per 100 000 person-years; adjusted incidence ratio [IRR] 1·30, 95% CI 1·27-1·33). Absolute number of incident AF increased by 72% (202 333 vs. 117 880), due to an increasing number of older persons. Comorbidity burden at diagnosis of AF increased (3·74 [SD 2·29] vs 2·58 [1·83]; adjusted difference 1·26, 95% CI 1·14-1·39). The age of AF diagnosis declined in the most deprived individuals compared to the most affluent (adjusted difference 0·74 years, 0·62-0·88). Across the study period, age-standardised incidence was higher in men than women (IRR 1·49; 95% CI 1·46-1·52), and men were younger at diagnosis (adjusted difference 5·53 years; 95% CI 5·36 to 5·69). Socioeconomically deprived individuals had more comorbidities and a higher incidence of AF than the most affluent individuals (IRR 1·20; 95% CI 1·15-1·24).

Interpretation

In England AF incidence has increased, and the socioeconomic gradient in age at diagnosis and comorbidity burden widened. This changing burden requires policy-based interventions to achieve health equity.

Funding

British Heart Foundation and National Institute for Health Research.

The Japanese lead extraction registry (J-LEX): Annual report 2020

The Japanese Heart Rhythm Society established a nationwide, mandatory, multi-center, prospective, observational registry of transvenous lead extraction (TLE) named the Japanese lead extraction registry (J-LEX) in 2018. We have published the first annual report of J-LEX with 661 cases from 42 hospitals. The second annual report of J-LEX in 2020 enrolled increased numbers of 785 cases from 75 hospitals. TLE procedure was attempted on patients with an average age of 71.7 years old, male in 72.5% in the hybrid operating room in 57.9%, and in standard OR with a C-arm fluoroscope in 18.7%. The indication of TLE was an infection in 62.8% and the guideline classification was class-I in 67.4% and class-IIa in 23.8%. The average implantation duration of target leads was 7.9 years. Complete removal was achieved in 96.6% of the target leads and clinical success in 98.1% of the patients. Perioperative complications were observed in 7.1% of the patients. One patient died during a TLE operation and the other three patients died in-hospital (cardiac death in one patient and non-cardiac in two patients). Although the annual J-LEX report in 2020 demonstrated an increased number of TLE procedures despite the first pandemic year of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), perioperative complications increased a little in comparison with J-LEX 2019.

Japanese Lead EXtraction (J‐LEX) registry: Annual report 2019

Along with the incremental cases of cardiac implantable electronic devices implantation or upgrade, the lead‐related complications are also in rise year after year. The most common and serious lead‐related complication is infection that needs a transvenous lead extraction (TLE) as the first‐line therapy. TLE is also performed for abandoned leads in case of lead failure or device upgrade, and for lead‐related trouble such as pain, vessel stenosis or occlusion, too many leads, tricuspid valve regurgitation, and difficulty of radiation therapy. This registration has been performed by the Japanese Heart Rhythm Society and started in July 2018. The first reported data of the Japanese Lead Extraction (J‐LEX) from July 2018 to December 2019 were underestimated since the number of patients and hospitals increased gradually because of the approval process of each hospital’s IRB. The TLE procedure was attempted to 1253 leads among 661 patients. Complete removal was achieved in 96.7% of the target leads and the clinical success was obtained in 98.9% of the patients. Perioperative complications were observed in 4.1% of the patients. The annual J‐LEX report reflects a real‐world TLE medicine in Japan and demonstrates that the clinical outcome is similar to former reports from high‐volume centers in North America and European countries.

Mild Hypertensive Retinopathy and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: The Suita Study

AIMS

This study aimed to investigate the association of mild hypertensive retinopathy with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.

METHODS

A total of 7,027 residents aged 30-79 years without a history of CVD participated in the annual health checkups and retinal photography assessments. Retinal microvascular abnormalities were graded using the standard protocols and classified according to the Keith-Wagener-Barker classification. Mild hypertensive retinopathy was defined as grades 1 and 2. Cox proportional hazard model was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for total CVD and its subtypes according to the presence and absence of mild hypertensive retinopathy.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 17 years, 351 incident stroke and 247 coronary heart disease (CHD) cases were diagnosed. After adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, mild hypertensive retinopathy was positively associated with risk of CVD (multivariable HR=1.24; 95% CI, 1.04-1.49) and stroke (1.28; 1.01-1.62) but not with risk of CHD (1.19; 0.89-1.58). Generalized arteriolar narrowing and enhanced arteriolar wall reflex were positively associated with CVD risk, the multivariable HR (95% CI) was 1.24 (1.00- 1.54)and 1.33 (1.02-1.74), respectively. Moreover, mild hypertensive retinopathy was positively associated with stroke risk in normotensive participants.

CONCLUSION

Mild hypertensive retinopathy was positively associated with CVD and stroke risk in the urban Japanese population. Especially, generalized arteriolar narrowing and enhanced arteriolar wall reflex were positively associated with CVD risk. These findings suggested that retinal photography could be helpful for cardiovascular risk stratification in the primary cardiovascular prevention.

The Japanese Catheter Ablation Registry (J-AB): Annual report in 2019

The Japanese Catheter Ablation (J-AB) registry, started in August 2017, is a voluntary, nationwide, multicenter, prospective, observational registry, performed by the Japanese Heart Rhythm Society (JHRS) in collaboration with the National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center using a Research Electronic Data Capture system. The purpose of this registry is to collect the details of target arrhythmias, the ablation procedures, including the type of target arrhythmias, outcomes, and acute complications in the real-world settings. During the year of 2019, we have collected a total of 80 795 procedures (mean age of 65.2 years and 66.4% male) from 425 participant hospitals. Detailed data are shown in Figures and Tables.

Developing a Stroke Risk Prediction Model Using Cardiovascular Risk Factors: The Suita Study

INTRODUCTION

Stroke remains a major cause of death and disability in Japan and worldwide. Detecting individuals at high risk for stroke to apply preventive approaches is recommended. This study aimed to develop a stroke risk prediction model among urban Japanese using cardiovascular risk factors.

METHODS

We followed 6,641 participants aged 30-79 years with neither a history of stroke nor coronary heart disease. The Cox proportional hazard model estimated the risk of stroke incidence adjusted for potential confounders at the baseline survey. The model's performance was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics. The internal validity of the risk model was tested using derivation and validation samples. Regression coefficients were used for score calculation.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up duration of 17.1 years, 372 participants developed stroke. A risk model including older age, current smoking, increased blood pressure, impaired fasting blood glucose and diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and atrial fibrillation predicted stroke incidence with an area under the curve = 0.76 and p value of the goodness of fit = 0.21. This risk model was shown to be internally valid (p value of the goodness of fit in the validation sample = 0.64). On a risk score from 0 to 26, the incidence of stroke for the categories 0-5, 6-7, 8-9, 10-11, 12-13, 14-15, and 16-26 was 1.1%, 2.1%, 5.4%, 8.2%, 9.0%, 13.5%, and 18.6%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

We developed a new stroke risk model for the urban general population in Japan. Further research to determine the clinical practicality of this model is required.

Uric acid and incident atrial fibrillation of 14 years population-based cohort study: The Suita Study

BACKGROUND

Higher baseline uric acid (UA) was significantly associated with higher atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence in Japanese women. However, no prospective study is evident in the association between UA and incident AF in Japanese urban residents.

METHODS

A total of 6863 participants (aged 30-79 years; 47% men) without prior AF were followed for 13.9 years on average in the Suita Study. According to the UA categories, cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimating the Hazard Ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident AF.

RESULTS

During 95178 person-years of follow-up, we observed 311 cases of incident AF (204 cases in men and 107 cases in women). Compared to the subjects with UA of 4.0-4.9 mg/dL, multivariable-adjusted HR (95% CIs) of incident AF was 1.50 (1.01-2.25) (P = .047) for the subjects with UA ≥7.0 mg/dL.

CONCLUSION

High UA was associated with an increased risk for incident AF in the Japanese population.

Association of hospital performance measures with readmissions for patients with heart failure: A report from JROAD-DPC study

BACKGROUND

Measuring quality of care is central to quality improvement. Improving outcomes for heart failure (HF) may relate to hospital care delivery. However, there is limited nationwide data on the relationship between hospital-level HF performance measures and clinical outcomes.

METHODS

From the Japanese Registry of All cardiac and vascular Diseases (JROAD-DPC) database, 83,567 HF patients hospitalised in 731 certificated hospitals in 2014 by the Japanese Circulation Society were analysed. Five performance measures were prescription rate of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker, beta-blocker, and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist and measurement rate of echocardiography and B-type natriuretic peptide during hospitalisation. Relationships between these measures and 1-year readmission due to HF were analysed. Composite performance score (CPS) obtained from the five performance measures and outcomes were also analysed. We also investigated the relationships between CPS and hospital structural factors.

RESULTS

From the cohort (mean age; 78.2 years, woman 48.4%), HF readmission rate at 1 year was 19.6% (n = 16,368). Readmission rate decreased with higher quartiles of prescription rate in each medication and diagnostic performance rates. The highest CPS group was associated with a 15% risk reduction in HF readmission compared with the lowest CPS group (hazard ratio, 0.85, 95% confidence interval [0.80-0.89], p < 0.001) after covariate adjustment. Several structural factors such as number of cardiology specialists, hospital case volume for HF, and presence of cardiac surgery division were associated with high CPS.

CONCLUSION

Higher hospital performance measures for HF were inversely associated with HF readmissions.

The Japanese Catheter Ablation Registry (J-AB): A prospective nationwide multicenter registry in Japan. Annual report in 2018

BACKGROUND

To analyze the type of ablation procedure, acute outcomes, and complications related to catheter ablation in Japan during the year of 2018.

METHOD

The Japanese Catheter Ablation (J-AB) registry is a voluntary, nationwide, multicenter, prospective, observational registry, performed by the Japanese Heart Rhythm Society (JHRS) in collaboration with the National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center using a Research Electronic Data Capture system. The procedural outcome and complications during hospitalizations were collected.

RESULT

A total of 55 525 procedures (mean age of 64.5 years and 66.5% male) from 369 hospitals were collected. The total number of target arrhythmias was 61 610 including atrial fibrillation (AF, 65.6%), atrial flutter (AFL) or atrial tachycardia (16.7%), atrioventricular nodal reentrant tachycardia (7.4%), atrioventricular reentrant tachycardia (3.5%), premature ventricular contractions (4.1%), and ventricular tachycardia (VT, 2.0%). Over a 90% acute success rate was observed among all arrhythmias except for VT due to structural heart disease, and notably, an over 99% success rate was achieved for pulmonary vein isolation of AF and inferior vena cava-tricuspid valve isthmus block for isthmus-dependent AFL. Acute complications during hospitalization were observed in 1558 patients (2.8%), including major bleeding (Bleeding Academic Research Consortium: BARC criteria ≥2) in 1.1%, cerebral or systemic embolisms in 0.2%, and death in 0.1%. Acute complications were more often observed with AF ablation (P < .001), especially the first AF ablation session and with structural heart disease (P < .001).

CONCLUSION

The J-AB registry provided real-world data regarding the acute outcomes and complications of ablation for the various types of arrhythmias in Japan.

Study Design of the Nationwide Japanese Lead Extraction (J-LEX) Registry: Protocol for a Prospective, Multicenter, Open Registry

BACKGROUND

Transvenous lead extractions (TLEs) in Japan have grown to become the standard therapy since the approval of the laser extraction system in 2008. However, little is known about the current indications, methods, success rate, and acute complications in the real-world setting.

METHODS

The Japanese Lead EXtraction (J-LEX) registry is a nationwide, multicenter, observational registry, performed by the Japanese Heart Rhythm Society (JHRS) in collaboration with the National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center. This study is a nationwide registry ordered by the JHRS and its data are collected prospectively using the Research Electronic Data Capture (REDCap) system. The acute success rate at discharge and complications associated with TLEs will be collected in all cases. Based on the provided information, the annual incidence and predictive factors for the outcomes will be investigated by the Event Assessment Committee (EAC). This registry started in July 2018 and the number of participating medical institutions will be more than 50 hospitals and the target number of procedures will be 500-1000 per year. We will also compare the results with other registries in foreign countries.

RESULT

The results of this study are currently under investigation.

CONCLUSION

The J-LEX registry will provide real-world data regarding the results and complications of TLEs for the various types of indications, methods, and performing hospitals in Japan.

Longitudinal Trajectories of Fasting Plasma Glucose and Risks of Cardiovascular Diseases in Middle Age to Elderly People Within the General Japanese Population: The Suita Study

Background

Few previous studies used information on changes in fasting plasma glucose (FPG) assessed at multiple points in time in relationship to cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence. The present study aimed to identify subgroups of FPG trajectories with assessing CVD incidence.

Methods and Results

The present study was based on the Suita study, a population‐based cohort study in Japan. The primary outcome was incidence of the first CVD events consisting of stroke and coronary heart diseases between 1989 and 2013. The main exposure was FPG assessed every 2 years. We used joint latent class mixed models to derive FPG trajectories over time while evaluating cumulative incidence of CVD, and categorized participants into several subgroups based on those trajectories and cumulative incidence. We observed 356 and 243 CVD events during the median follow‐up of 17.2 and 20.2 years among 3120 men and 3482 women, respectively. The joint latent mixed models found 3 subgroups in men and 2 subgroups in women. Of the 3 subgroups in men, 1 subgroup had FPG levels that increased sharply (96.5–205.0 mg/dL from aged 40 to 80 years) and higher CVD cumulative incidence. Of the 2 subgroups in women, 1 subgroup had FPG levels that increased sharply (97.7–190.5 mg/dL from aged 40 to 80 years) and tended to have slightly higher CVD incidence compared with the other subgroup.

Conclusion

It can be important to manage CVD risk factors especially for people whose FPG trajectories sharply increased to prevent CVD.

Development of a Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Model Using the Suita Study, a Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study in Japan

Aim: To construct a risk prediction model for cardiovascular disease (CVD) based on the Suita study, an urban Japanese cohort study, and compare its accuracy against the Framingham CVD risk score (FRS) model.

Methods: After excluding participants with missing data or those who lost to follow-up, this study consisted of 3,080 men and 3,470 women participants aged 30–79 years without CVD at baseline in 1989–1999. The main outcome of this study was incidence of CVD, defined as the incidence of stroke or coronary heart disease. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models with stepwise selection were used to develop the prediction model. To assess model performance, concordance statistics (C-statistics) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a bootstrap procedure. A calibration test was also conducted.

Results: During a median follow-up period of 16.9 years, 351 men and 241 women developed CVD. We formulated risk models with and without electrocardiogram (ECG) data that included age, sex, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, lowdensity lipoprotein cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, smoking, and urinary protein as risk factors. The C-statistics of the Suita CVD risk models with ECG data (0.782; 95% CI, 0.766–0.799) and without ECG data (0.781; 95% CI, 0.765–0.797) were significantly higher than that of the FRS model (0.768; 95% CI, 0.750–0.785).

Conclusions: The Suita CVD risk model is feasible to use and improves predictability of the incidence of CVD relative to the FRS model in Japan.

Clinical Characteristics and In-Hospital Mortality According to Left Main and Non-Left Main Culprit Lesions - Report From the Japan Acute Myocardial Infarction Registry (JAMIR)

Background: Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) due to an unprotected left main coronary artery (LMCA) lesion is a critical condition, but there are limited data available on in-hospital outcomes of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Methods and Results: The Japan Acute Myocardial Infarction Registry is a nationwide, real-world database. The clinical data on 13,548 ACS patients hospitalized between January 2011 and December 2013 were retrospectively collected from 10 representative regional ACS registry groups. We compared the 404 patients (3.0%) with LMCA ACS with the remaining 13,144 patients with non-LMCA ACS. The LMCA group was characterized by older age, lower rate of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, and higher rate of advanced Killip class. In-hospital mortality was significantly higher in patients with LMCA ACS than in those with non-LMCA ACS (23.3% vs. 5.5%, respectively; P<0.001). Primary PCI for non-LMCA lesions was associated with lower in-hospital mortality (OR, 0.48; 95% CI: 0.34-0.66), but that for LMCA lesions was not (OR, 2.89; 95% CI: 1.13-7.40). Longer door-to-balloon time was associated with Killip class ≥2 and higher in-hospital mortality in the non-LMCA group but not in the LMCA group. Conclusions: Primary PCI in patients with LMCA ACS is still challenging; therefore, effective strategies are needed.

6131Association between hospital care quality and readmission among Japanese patients with heart failure. From JROAD-DPC study

Background

Measuring the process of care has become a widely used practice to improve a quality of care. Recently, some studies have demonstrated poor to no correlation between 30-day readmission rates and quality of care for heart failure (HF) among hospitalized HF patients. However the investigation about relationships of care quality for HF and 1 year outcome is limited.

Purpose

To investigate the relationship between quality of care in each hospitals and readmission among HF patients in Japan.

Methods

From Japanese Registry of All cardiac and vascular diseases (JROAD-DPC) database in 2014, 84,325 HF patients hospitalized to 741 certificated hospitals by Japanese Circulation Society were analyzed. A primary endpoint was readmission for HF in one year. Five performance measures were defined as prescription rate of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker (ACEI/ARB), prescription rate of beta blocker and prescription rate of spironolactone, measurement rate of echocardiography and measurement rate of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) during hospitalization. For each of the five measures, a composite score was created by giving points ranging from 1 to 4 from the lower quartile of rates, with the score ranging from 5 to 20 points. Hazard ratios (HR) indicating the effects of the performance measures were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. Covariates included age, gender, Charson score, and NYHA class.

Results

In Japanese HF patients (age; 78.1 years old, man 52%), the HF readmission rate in one year was 14,520 (17.2%). The readmission rate decreased with higher quartiles of prescription rate in each medications and performance rates. The highest quartile of each measurements was significantly lower risk for readmission compared to the lowest quartile (ACE/ARB, adjusted HR 0.87 [95% CI, 0.83–0.91], p<0.001; beta-blocker, 0.83 [0.79–0.88], p<0.001; spironolactone, 0.88 [0.83–0.92], p<0.001; echocardiography, 0.90 [0.86–0.94], p<0.001; BNP, 0.92 [0.87–0.96], p<0.001). Kaplan-Meier curves showed that readmission rates were better among higher composite score, compared to lower composite score (Log-rank test=p<0.001). (Figure) Higher composite scores were associated with statistically significant risk reduction of 23% for HF readmission (HR 0.77, 95% CI [0.73–0.81], p<0.001).

Figure 1

Conclusion

The hospital performance measures were associated with a significant risk reduction of readmission in Japanese patients with HF.

Study design of nationwide Japanese Catheter Ablation Registry: Protocol for a prospective, multicenter, open registry

BACKGROUND

Catheter ablation has become a popular interventional treatment for cardiac tachyarrhythmias and the number has been on the rise year by year. However, little is known about its efficacy and safety in the real-world settings.

METHOD

Japanese Catheter Ablation (J-AB) Registry is a nationwide, multicenter, observational registry, performed by Japanese Heart Rhythm Society (JHRS), collaborated with National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center. This study is a voluntary nationwide registry and data are collected prospectively using a Research Electronic Data Capture (REDCap) system. Detailed data collection including antiarrhythmic medication is also performed every September. The acute success rate at discharge and the complications associated with ablation procedure will be collected in all cases. Major bleeding events are defined according to Bleeding Academic Research Consortium criteria. Based on the provided information, the annual incidence and predictive factors for outcome will be investigated by the Event Assessment Committee. This registry started in August 2017 and the number of participating medical instructions will be more than 250 hospitals and the target procedure number will be 70 000 per year. We will also compare the results with other registries in foreign countries.

RESULT

The results of this study are currently under investigation.

CONCLUSION

The J-AB registry will provide a real-world data regarding the acute success and complications in Japan, focusing on various types of catheter ablation for cardiac arrhythmias.

Nationwide real-world database of 20,462 patients enrolled in the Japanese Acute Myocardial Infarction Registry (JAMIR): Impact of emergency coronary intervention in a super-aging population

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases, including acute myocardial infarction (AMI), are leading causes of death among the Japanese, who have the longest life expectancy in the world. Over the past 50 years in Japan, the percentage of elderly individuals has increased 4-fold, from 5.7% in 1960 to 23.1% in 2010. To explore medical practices and emergency care for AMI in this aging society, the Japan Acute Myocardial Infarction Registry (JAMIR) was established as a nationwide real-world database.

METHODS

JAMIR conducted retrospective analysis of 20,462 AMI patients (mean age, 68.8 ± 13.3 years; 15,281 men [74.7%]) hospitalized between January 2011 and December 2013.

RESULTS

The rates of ambulance use and emergency PCI were 78.9% and 87.9%, respectively. The median door-to-balloon time was 80 min (interquartile range, 53-143 min). Overall in-hospital mortality was 8.3%, including 6.6% due to cardiac death. JAMIR included 4837 patients aged ≥80 years (23.6%). In this age group, patients who underwent PCI (79.9%) had significantly lower in-hospital mortality than those who did not (11.1% vs. 36.9%, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The large JAMIR database, with 24% of AMI patients aged ≥80 years, could provide useful information about medical care in an aging society. The reasonable in-hospital outcomes observed may justify consideration of PCI for patients with AMI aged ≥80 years.

Impact of Intima-Media Thickness Progression in the Common Carotid Arteries on the Risk of Incident Cardiovascular Disease in the Suita Study

Background

No prospective study of the relationship between intima–media thickness (IMT) progression and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been performed.

Methods and Results

We studied 4724 participants (mean age: 59.7±11.9 years; without CVD at the baseline) who had carotid ultrasonographic measurement of IMT on both sides of the entire carotid artery area (ie, the entire scanned common carotid artery [CCA], carotid artery bulb, internal carotid artery, and external carotid artery areas for both sides) between April 1994 and August 2001. Carotid ultrasonographic follow‐up was performed every 2 years between April 1994 and March 2005 in 2722 of these participants, newly revealing 193 CCA plaques (maximum IMT in the CCA >1.1 mm). We followed up for incident CVD until December 2013. Statistical analyses were performed using a Cox proportional hazards regression model, evaluated using C statistics, and net reclassification improvement. During the 59 909 person‐years of follow‐up, we observed 221 strokes and 154 coronary heart disease events. CCA plaque and maximum IMT in the whole carotid artery area >1.7 mm were risk factors for CVD. CCA plaque presented an increased risk of CVD based on C statistics and the reclassification improvement of the current risk prediction model. After adding the new incident CCA plaques, during the 23 702 person‐years of follow‐up, 69 strokes and 43 coronary heart disease events occurred. The adjusted hazard ratios for incident CCA plaque were 1.95 (95% confidence interval, 1.14–3.30) in CVD and 2.01 (95% confidence interval, 1.01–3.99) in stroke.

Conclusions

Maximum IMT in the CCA contributed significantly but modestly to the predictive power of incident CVD used in calculating traditional risk factors. This study provides the first demonstration that new progression of incident CCA plaque is a CVD risk.

Sex differences in impact of coronary artery calcification to predict coronary artery disease

Objective

To assess sex-specific differences regarding use of conventional risks and coronary artery calcification (CAC) to detect coronary artery disease (CAD) using coronary CT angiography (CCTA).

Methods

The Nationwide Gender-specific Atherosclerosis Determinants Estimation and Ischemic Cardiovascular Disease Prospective Cohort study is a prospective, multicentre, nationwide cohort study. Candidates with suspected CAD aged 50–74 years enrolled from 2008 to 2012. The outcome was obstructive CAD defined as any stenosis ≥50% by CCTA. We constructed logistic regression models for obstructive CAD adjusted for conventional risks (clinical model) and CAC score. Improvement in discrimination beyond risks was assessed by C-statistic; net reclassification index (NRI) for CAD probability of low (<30%), intermediate (30%–60%) and high (≥60%); and risk stratification capacity.

Results

Among 991 patients (456 women, 535 men; 65.2 vs 64.4 years old), women had lower CAC scores (median, 4 vs 60) and lower CAD prevalence (21.7% vs 37.0%) than men. CAC significantly improved model discrimination compared with clinical model in both sexes (0.66–0.79 in women vs 0.61–0.83 in men). The NRI for women was 0.33, which was much lower than that for men (0.71). Adding CAC to clinical model had a larger benefit in terms of moving an additional 43.3% of men to the most determinant categories (high or low risk) compared with −1.4% of women.

Conclusions

The addition of CAC to a prediction model based on conventional variables significantly improved the classification of risk in suspected patients with CAD, with sex differences influencing the predictive ability.

Trial registration number

UMIN-CTR Clinical Trial: UMIN000001577.

Effectiveness of nationwide screening and lifestyle intervention for abdominal obesity and cardiometabolic risks in Japan: The metabolic syndrome and comprehensive lifestyle intervention study on nationwide database in Japan (MetS ACTION-J study)

Background

Lifestyle interventions can substantially improve obesity and cardiometabolic risks. However, evidence of long-term benefits of national intervention is sparse. We aimed to evaluate the long-term effectiveness of a nationwide program for abdominal obesity.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was performed using a longitudinal nationwide individual data in subjects aged 40–74 years who underwent checkups in fiscal year (FY) 2008. Lifestyle interventions were provided via interview in subjects with abdominal obesity and at least one cardiometabolic risk factor. Subjects who attended the lifestyle intervention (participants) were compared to those who did not attend (non-participants). Outcomes were waist circumferences (WC) and body mass index (BMI) reduction, reversal of metabolic syndrome (MetS), and changes in cardiometabolic risks. We used a three-step process with robust analytic approaches to account for selection bias that included traditional multivariate analysis, propensity-score matching and instrumental variable (IV) analyses.

Results

Of 19,969,722 subjects, 4,370,042 were eligible for analyses; 111,779 participants and 907,909 non-participants. A higher percentage of participants had ≥5% reductions in obesity profiles at year 3, compared to non-participants (WC, 21.4% vs 16.1%; BMI, 17.6% vs 13.6%; p<0.001 each). Participants also had higher reversal for MetS (adjusted odds ratio 1.31; 95% confidence interval: 1.29–1.33; p<0.001). Greater reductions in cardiometabolic risks were observed in participants. Those results were confirmed in analyses using a propensity score-matched cohort (n = 75,777, each) and IV analyses. Limitations of this work include the use of non-randomized national data in Japan to assess the effectiveness of the nationwide preventive program.

Conclusions

In the nationwide lifestyle intervention for abdominal obesity, the at-risk population achieved significant reductions in WC, BMI, and cardiometabolic risks in 3 years. This study provides evidence that the nationwide program effectively achieved long-term improvement in abdominal obesity and cardiometabolic risks.

Influence of comorbidities on the implementation of the fundus examination in patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes

AIMS

To investigate the influence of comorbidities on undergoing a diabetic eye examination in patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study using data from health insurance claims made between January 2005 and March 2013 in Japan. The primary outcome was implementation of the fundus examination that includes fundus photography, ophthalmoscopy and optical coherence tomography by a doctor within one year of initial drug therapy for Type2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM). We used multivariable logistic regression models with adjustment for demographic parameters to investigate the influence of comorbidities (hypertension and/or hyperlipidemia) on patients with T2DM receiving fundus examinations. We conducted an additional analysis to investigate whether the site of treatment might influence the performance of fundus examinations in patients with T2DM.

RESULTS

A total of 6,492 patients were eligible for this analysis, of which 1,044 (16.1%) had comorbidities and 2,212 (34.1%) received the fundus examination. In the multivariable analysis, there was a significant association between comorbidities and a lower proportion of examination implementation (odds ratio [OR], 0.57; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.48-0.68; P<0.001). The implementation proportion for patients treated for comorbidities and T2DM in the same facility was also low (OR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.43-0.63; P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that the proportion of taking fundus examination is low among patients with comorbidities, especially in patients treated at the same facility for comorbidities and T2DM. This may help to increase the proportion of T2DM patients receiving fundus examinations.

Diabetes and lifetime risk of coronary heart disease

INTRODUCTION

Epidemiological estimate lifetime risk (LTR) is a measure that expresses the probability of disease in the remaining lifetime for individuals of a specific index age. These estimates can be useful for general audience targeted knowledge translation activities against diabetes. There are only a few reports on lifetime of impact of diabetes on coronary heart disease (CHD) events.

METHODS

The Suita Study, a cohort study of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), was established in 1989. We included all participants who were CVD free at baseline. Age (in years) was used as the time scale. Age-specific incidence rates were calculated with person-year method within ten-year bands. We estimated the sex and index-age specific LTR of first-ever CHD with taking the competing risk of death into account.

RESULTS

We followed 5559 participants without CHD history during 1989-2007 for 71,745.4 person-years. At age 40 years the competing risk of death adjusted LTR for all CHD were 16.61% for men without diabetes and 21.06% for men with diabetes. Therefore the LTD for CHD was higher by 4.45% for men with diabetes compared to men without. The competing risk adjusted LTR of CHD at 40 years of aged women was 9.18% for without diabetes and 14.21% for with diabetes. This increased LTR of CHD for diabetic patients were observed among both men and women across all index ages.

CONCLUSION

In this urban community based population we observed that diabetes has significant effect on the residual LTR of CHD among both men and women of middle age. This easy understandable knowledge can be used as important indexes to assist public health education and planning.

Utilization of Anticoagulant and Antiplatelet Agents Among Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention - Retrospective Cohort Study Using a Nationwide Claims Database in Japan

BACKGROUND

The European Society of Cardiology recommends a risk-based antithrombotic strategy for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who undergo percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) based on CHA₂DS₂-VASc and HAS-BLED scores. However, because it is unclear if that strategy can be generalized to Asians, we aimed to describe antithrombotic therapies among Japanese patients.Methods and Results:Using a nationwide claims database in Japan, this retrospective cohort study identified AF patients who underwent PCI from April 1, 2014 to March 31, 2015. The primary outcome was utilization of anticoagulant and antiplatelet agents before PCI, at discharge, and 6, 9, and 12 months after PCI. The secondary outcome was incidence of stroke after PCI. We identified 10,862 patients and 87.5% of them had high CHA₂DS₂-VASc and HAS-BLED scores. There were no significant differences in antithrombotic therapies across the risk strata. More than 30% of patients at high risk of thrombosis did not receive oral anticoagulant prescriptions at discharge. The hazard ratio of incidence of stroke in patients with prior stroke compared with patients without prior stroke was 9.09 (95% confidence interval 7.86-10.50, P<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Among Japanese AF patients who underwent PCI, prescriptions for antiplatelet agents were more common than those for anticoagulant agents. The majority of study participants were classified as high risk, suggesting a need for a new risk classification that reflects the risk profiles of Japanese patients.

Abstract P401: The Progress of Carotid Atherosclerosis is Associated With Incident Stroke and Coronary Heart Disease: The Suita Study

Background and Purpose: We observed that the maximum of intima-media thickness (IMT) more than 1.1 mm in the common carotid artery (CCA), i.e. CIMT-plaque, is the best predictive marker for incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the Suita Study. There has been no study of the association between the progress of carotid atherosclerosis and CVD in a general population. We assessed our hypothesis that CIMT-plaque progression could predict the risk of new-onset CVD in a general population.

Methods: We studied 3,722 men and women (mean age 59.8 years without CIMT-plaque or CVD at baseline) who completed a baseline survey and carotid ultrasonography. CIMT-plaque was defined as a maximum IMT in the CCA more than 1.1 mm. During the follow-up periods from April 1994 to March 2005, we observed 632 new CIMT-plaques. After new incident CIMT-plaque or as of April 2005, we conducted a prospective cohort study of the cases until the December 2013 endpoint. We compared the CVD risk by a Cox proportional hazards model after adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, prehypertension, hypertension (grades I and II+III), TC, HDL, antihypertensive drug and/or statin use, diabetes, impaired fasting glucose, chronic kidney disease, smoking, and excessive drinking (more than 4 units/day).

Results: After new incident CIMT-plaques in CCA, we observed 234 incident CVD events (139 strokes and 95 coronary heart disease [CHD]) during 38,243 person-years of follow-up. Age, men, hypertension grades I and II+III, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia were associated with the progression of CIMT-plaque. After new incident CIMT-plaques, the adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for CVD, stroke, and IHD during follow-up were 1.58 (1.15 to 2.17), 1.54 (1.03 to 2.31), and 1.72 (1.03 to 2.88).

Conclusions: The novel finding of this study is that CIMT-plaque progression could be a good predictor of new-onset CVD in a general population.

Diabetes and lifetime risk of stroke and subtypes in an urban middle-aged population

AIMS

Lifetime risk (LTR) is defined as the cumulative probability of developing a disease in one's remaining lifetime from a given index age. The impact of diabetes on the LTR of stroke events in Asians, where stroke incidence is higher than for Westerners, has not been estimated yet. These estimates can be useful for diabetes knowledge translation activities.

METHODS

All participants who were stroke-free at baseline in the Suita Study, a cohort study of cardiovascular diseases in Japan, were included in the study sample. Age, in years, was used as the time-scale. Age-specific incidence rates were calculated using the person-years method within five-year bands. We estimated the sex- and index-age-specific LTR of first-ever stroke accounting for the competing risk of death.

RESULTS

In this cohort study, we followed 5515 participants from 1989 to 2007 for 71,374.23 person-years. At age 40, the LTRs, adjusted for competing risk of death, for all strokes were 15.98% for men without diabetes and 26.64% for men with diabetes. The LTR for stroke was 10.66% higher for men with diabetes than men without diabetes. For women of same index age, the LTR of stroke was 17.29% and 30.72% with diabetes and without diabetes, respectively. The difference in LTR between persons with diabetes and without diabetes was 13.43%. This increased LTR of strokes for persons with diabetes was observed among both men and women across all index ages. Similar results were observed for cerebral infarction stroke subtype.

CONCLUSIONS

In this urban community-based population we observed that diabetes has a significant effect on the residual LTR of stroke for both men and women of middle age. This knowledge can be used to inform public health education and planning.

Endothelium-Derived C-Type Natriuretic Peptide Contributes to Blood Pressure Regulation by Maintaining Endothelial Integrity

We previously reported the secretion of C-type natriuretic peptide (CNP) from vascular endothelial cells and proposed the existence of a vascular natriuretic peptide system composed of endothelial CNP and smooth muscle guanylyl cyclase-B (GC-B), the CNP receptor, and involved in the regulation of vascular tone, remodeling, and regeneration. In this study, we assessed the functional significance of this system in the regulation of blood pressure in vivo using vascular endothelial cell–specific CNP knockout and vascular smooth muscle cell–specific GC-B knockout mice. These mice showed neither the skeletal abnormality nor the early mortality observed in systemic CNP or GC-B knockout mice. Endothelial cell–specific CNP knockout mice exhibited significantly increased blood pressures and an enhanced acute hypertensive response to nitric oxide synthetase inhibition. Acetylcholine-induced, endothelium-dependent vasorelaxation was impaired in rings of mesenteric artery isolated from endothelial cell–specific CNP knockout mice. In addition, endothelin-1 gene expression was enhanced in pulmonary vascular endothelial cells from endothelial cell–specific CNP knockout mice, which also showed significantly higher plasma endothelin-1 concentrations and a greater reduction in blood pressure in response to an endothelin receptor antagonist than their control littermates. By contrast, vascular smooth muscle cell–specific GC-B knockout mice exhibited blood pressures similar to control mice, and acetylcholine-induced vasorelaxation was preserved in their isolated mesenteric arteries. Nonetheless, CNP-induced acute vasorelaxation was nearly completely abolished in mesenteric arteries from vascular smooth muscle cell–specific GC-B knockout mice. These results demonstrate that endothelium-derived CNP contributes to the chronic regulation of vascular tone and systemic blood pressure by maintaining endothelial function independently of vascular smooth muscle GC-B.

Abstract WP197: Increased Carotid Intima-Media Thickness is Associated ith Incident Coronary Heart Disease and Stroke in a Japanese General Population With a 12.6-year Follow-up: The Suita Study

Introduction: Carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) is increasingly used as a subclinical marker of cardiovascular disease. However, few studies have examined the association between IMT and incident coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in non-Westerners. We assessed the hypothesis that carotid atherosclerosis is a predictor of CHD and stroke events in a general urban Japanese population.

Methods: We studied 4,751 Japanese (2181 men and 2570 women, mean age 59.8 years, without stroke or CHD at the baseline) who completed a baseline survey and carotid atherosclerosis in the Suita Study, and were then followed for an average of 12.6 years. Carotid atherosclerosis was evaluated by high-resolution ultrasonography with atherosclerotic indexes of IMT in the common carotid artery (CCA) and the carotid artery bulb. Mean IMT was defined as the mean of the IMT of the proximal and distal walls for both sides of the CCA at a point 10 mm proximal to the beginning of the dilation of each carotid artery bulb. Max-CCA and Max-Bulb were defined as the maximum IMT in the CCA and bulb areas, respectively. We used adjusted Cox proportional-hazards models to compare the risk of CHD and stroke by use of mean and maximum carotid IMT in the CCA and bulb areas.

Results: During the follow-up, we documented 145 cerebral infarctions, 58 hemorrhagic strokes, 20 unclassified strokes, and 159 CHD. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs; 95% confidence intervals [CI], P for trend [P trend]) in the fourth quartile (≥ 0.95 mm) of the mean IMT for strokes, cerebral infarction, and CHD were 3.13 (1.48-6.63, P trend = 0.002), 3.34 (1.33-8.37, P trend = 0.002), and 1.93 (0.96-3.88, P trend <0.0001), respectively, compared with the first quartile (<0.775 mm). The adjusted HRs (95% CI) in the fourth quartiles of Max-CCA (≥1.10 mm) and Max-BIF (≥1.55 mm) were 2.48 (1.10-5.62, P trend = 0.07) and 3.28 (1.40-7.69, P trend <0.0001) in stroke, 1.87 (0.75-4.659, P trend = 0.07) and 2.83 (1.05-7.63, P trend = 0.005) in cerebral infarction, and 3.07 (1.18-8.04, P trend <0.0001) and 6.01 (2.02-17.9, P trend <0.0001) in CHD, respectively, compared with the first quartiles (<0.9 mm).

Conclusions: Carotid IMT, especially Max-BIF was a strong predictor of stroke, cerebral infarction, and CHD in a Japanese urban general population.

Risk for metabolic diseases in normal weight individuals with visceral fat accumulation: a cross-sectional study in Japan

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between visceral fat area (VFA) and metabolic syndrome (Mets) among normal weight Japanese.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional study.

SETTING

The health check-up centre of the Takeda Hospital group in Kyoto, Japan.

METHODS

This study involved 1674 men and 1448 women aged 30-74 years who underwent medical check-ups in 2012 in the health check-up centre. They were stratified by Body Mass Index (BMI cut-off for obesity is set at 23.0 kg/m² for Asians): normal weight 18.5-22.9 kg/m² or higher weight ≥23.0 kg/m². The age-adjusted ORs of the 2nd to 4th groups of sex-specific VFA quartiles compared with the 1st quartile for a Mets component clustering were estimated. The clustering was having two or more of the following factors: high blood pressure, high fasting blood glucose (FBG), low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and high triglycerides. Statistical analyses were conducted in 2016.

RESULTS

Participants in the 2nd to 4th VFA quartiles had significantly higher clustering risks; ORs were 3.4 (1.5 to 8.0), 6.3 (2.8 to 14.2) and 9.3 (4.2 to 20.7) for normal weight participants, and 1.7 (1.2 to 2.6), 2.6 (1.8 to 3.9) and 6.0 (4.1 to 8.8) for higher weight participants, respectively. The ORs of the 4th VFA quartile for Mets components were significantly higher; ORs for normal weight participants were 2.1 (1.5 to 3.0) (high blood pressure), 2.4 (1.4 to 4.2) (high FBG), 5.2 (2.1 to 12.9) (low HDL-C) and 12.0 (5.7 to 25.3) (high triglycerides), and higher weight participants were 3.9 (2.8 to 5.5), 4.1 (2.8 to 6.2), 3.9 (2.2 to 6.9) and 5.0 (3.4 to 7.4), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Among participants with normal weight, as well as those of higher weight, dose-dependent responses were observed between VFA and risk for Mets components and the clustering among Japanese adults. VFA may be useful information for interventions to improve metabolic risk factors in people with normal weight.