Geographic weighted regression analysis of hot spots of modern contraceptive utilization and its associated factors in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Utilization of modern contraceptives is a common healthcare challenge in Ethiopia. Prevalence of modern contraception utilization is varying across different regions. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate Geographic weighted regression analysis of hotspots of modern contraceptive utilization and its associated factors in Ethiopia, using Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey 2016 data.

METHODS

Based on the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic Health Survey data, a total weighted sample of 8,673 women was included in this study. For the Geographic Weighted Regression analysis, Arc-GIS version 10.7 and SaTScan version 9.6, statistical software was used. Spatial regression was done to identify factors associated with the hotspots of modern contraceptive utilization and model comparison was carried out using adjusted R2 and AICc. Variables with a p-value < 0.25 in the bi-variable analysis were considered for the multivariable analysis. Multilevel robust Poisson regression analysis was fitted for associated factors since the prevalence of modern contraceptive was >10%. In the multilevel robust Poisson regression analysis, the adjusted prevalence ratio with the 95% confidence interval was reported to declare the statistical significance and strength of association.

RESULT

The prevalence of modern contraceptive utilization in Ethiopia was 37.25% (95% CI: 36.23%, 38.27%). Most of the hotspot areas were located in Oromia and Amhara regions, followed by the SNNPR region and Addis Ababa City administration. Single Women, poor Women, and more fertility preference were significant predictors of hotspots areas of modern contraceptive utilization. In the multivariable multilevel robust Poisson regression analysis, Women aged 25-34 years (APR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.79, 0.98), 35-49 years (APR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.61, 0.83), married marital status (APR = 2.59, 95% CI: 2.18, 3.08), Others religions (APR = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.65, 0.89), number of children 1-4 (APR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.37), no more fertility preference (APR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.11, 1.32), Afar, Somali, Harari, and Dire Dawa: (APR = 0.42, 95% CI: 0.27, 0.67), (APR = 0.06, 95% CI: 0.03, 0.12), (APR = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.62, 0.98), and (APR = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.58, 0.98), respectively. Amhara region (APR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.13, 1.57), rural residence (APR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.67, 0.95) High community wealth index (APR = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.67, 0.91) were significantly associated with modern contraceptive utilization.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

There were significant spatial variations of factors affecting modern contraceptive use across regions in Ethiopia. Therefore, public health interventions targeting areas with low modern contraceptive utilization will help to increase modern contraception use considering significant factors at individual and community levels.The detailed map of modern contraceptive use cold spots among reproductive age group and its predictors could assist program planners and decision-makers to design targeted public health interventions.Government of Ethiopia must develop more geographic targeted strategies for improving socioeconomic status of women and availability & accessibility of health facilities in rural areas of the countries.

Population-Modifiable Risk Factors Associated With Childhood Stunting in Sub-Saharan Africa

Importance

Identifying modifiable risk factors associated with childhood stunting in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is imperative for the development of evidence-based interventions and to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

Objective

To evaluate key modifiable risk factors associated with childhood stunting in SSA.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study examined the most recent (2014-2021) Demographic and Health Surveys data for children younger than 5 years from 25 SSA countries.

Exposures

Modifiable risk factors included history of diarrhea within 2 weeks, consumption of dairy products, maternal body mass index, maternal educational level, antenatal care visits, place of birth, wealth index, type of toilet, and type of cooking fuel.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Stunting and severe stunting, measured using the height-for-age z score, were the main outcomes. Children who scored below -2.0 SDs or -3.0 SDs were classified as having stunted or severely stunted growth, respectively. Relative risks and 95% CIs were computed using generalized linear latent and mixed models and log-binomial link functions. Population-attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated using adjusted relative risks and prevalence estimates for key modifiable risk factors.

Results

This study included 145 900 children from 25 SSA countries. The mean (SD) age of the children was 29.4 (17.3) months, and 50.6% were male. The highest PAFs of severe childhood stunting were observed for mothers lacking a formal education (PAF, 21.9%; 95% CI, 19.0%-24.8%), children lacking consumption of dairy products (PAF, 20.8%; 95% CI, 16.8%-24.9%), unclean cooking fuel (PAF, 9.5%; 95% CI, 2.6%-16.3%), home birth (PAF, 8.3%; 95% CI, 6.3%-10.0%), and low-income household (PAF, 5.8%; 95% CI, 3.4%-8.0%). These 5 modifiable risk factors were associated with 51.6% (95% CI, 40.5%-60.9%) of the severe childhood stunting in SSA.

Conclusions and Relevance

This cross-sectional study identified 5 modifiable risk factors that were associated with 51.6% of severe childhood stunting in SSA. These factors should be a priority for policy makers when considering future child health interventions to address chronic malnutrition in SSA.

Intimate partner violence and its associated factors among reproductive-age women in East Africa:-A generalized mixed effect robust poisson regression model

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) has published estimates revealing that around one out of every three women across the globe has been a victim of either physical and/or sexual violence from an intimate partner or non-partner throughout their lifetime. The available evidence on intimate partner violence in East Africa is limited Consequently, the objective of this study was to evaluate the occurrence and factors linked to intimate partner violence in East Africa.

METHODS

The study utilized the most recent data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) conducted between 2011 and 2018/19 in 11 countries in Eastern Africa. A total of 59,000 women were included in the study. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to exmine factors associated with IPV. A mixed effect robust Poisson regression model was fitted to identify factors associated with intimate partner violence. The adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) and its corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) were employed to determine the presence of a significant association between intimate partner violence and the independent variables.

RESULTS

In this study, the prevalence of intimate partner violence in East Africa was 43.72% with 95% CI 43.32% to 44.12%. In the mixed effect robust Poisson regression model:-Marital status, working status, parity, sex of household headed, wealth index, community poverty, and residence, were significantly associated with intimate partner violence.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of intimate partner violence in East Africa is high as compared to the global prevalence 30%, which hinders The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), specifically goal 5, aim to attain gender equality and empower women and girls worldwide by the year 2030 Women being previously married and cohabitated, working, having a high number of children, rural residents were positively associated with IPV and household and community wealth index and sex of household headed were negatively related with IPV in East Africa. Therefore, we recommend establishing effective health and legal response using an integrated policy approach and Special attention should be given to women who live rural and poorest to reduce IPV and to achieve Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) goal 5.

Environmental determinants and risk behaviour in the case of indigenous malaria in Muara Enim Regency, Indonesia: A case-control design

INTRODUCTION

Malaria is a significant public health concern in Indonesia. Muara Enim Regency is one of the districts in South Sumatra with the most important number of indigenous malaria cases in the last three years (2018-2020). Therefore, this study aimed to identify determinants of indigenous malaria in the Muara Enim Regency.

METHODS

This study was designed as a case-control study. A stratified random sample in 2018, 2019, and 2020 was used at the Primary Health Centres (PHCs) areas of Tanjung Enim and Tanjung Agung. The sample included 49 cases and 49 controls. Indigenous malaria determinants were discovered using both bivariable and multivariable logistic regression models.

RESULT

The multivariable logistic regression model results show that mosquito repellent reduces malaria risk by 71% (AOR = 0.29, 95% CI: 0.11-0.64). Besides, the presence of wire mesh on ventilation reduces the risk of malaria by 76% (AOR = 0.24, 95% CI: 0.10-0.57), and the distance from mosquito breeding sites near hundred meters and fewer increases the risk of malaria by 3.88 fold (AOR = 3.88; 95% CI: 1.67-8.97).

CONCLUSIONS

Multivariable analysis revealed distance from mosquito breeding sites as a risk factor for malaria. Besides, the study shows that using insect repellent, wire netting in ventilation, eliminating mosquito breeding sites, mosquito repellent or protective clothing, and improving house conditions were protective factors for indigenous malaria. Therefore, preventive and promotional efforts are essential as the first step toward malaria elimination at the study site, including avoiding direct contact between residents and vectors near mosquito breeding sites.

Double burden of malnutrition and its associated factors among women in low and middle income countries: findings from 52 nationally representative data

BACKGROUND

Double burden of malnutrition (DBM) is an emerging global public health problem. The United Nations member states adopted eradicating all forms of malnutrition as an integral component of the global agenda. However, there is evidence of a high burden of undernutrition among women and rising rates of overweight and obesity, especially in low and middle income countries (LMICs). Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the prevalence and associated factors of underweight, overweight, and obesity among women of reproductive age in LMICs.

METHODS

Data for the study were drawn from a recent 52 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) conducted in LMICS. We included a sample of 1,099,187 women of reproductive age. A multilevel multinomial logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with DBM. Adjusted relative risk ratio (RRR) with a 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was reported to show an association.

RESULTS

The prevalence of underweight, overweight, and obesity in LMICs among women of reproductive age was 15.2% (95% CI: 15.1-15.3), 19.0% (95% CI: 18.9- 19.1), and 9.1% (95% CI: 9.0-9.2), respectively. This study found that women aged 24-34 years, aged ≥ 35 years, with primary, secondary, and above educational level, from wealthy households, using modern contraceptives, exposed to media (radio and television), and with high parity (more than one birth) were more likely to have overweight and obesity and less likely to have underweight. Moreover, the risk of having obesity (RRR = 0.59; 95% CI = 0.58-0.60 and overweight (RRR = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.77-0.79) were lower among rural women, while the risk of being underweight was (RRR = 1.13; 95% CI = 1.11-1.15) higher among rural women compared to urban women.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of underweight, overweight, and obesity was high among women of reproductive age in LMICs. Underweight, overweight, and obesity are influenced by sociodemographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral-related factors. This study shows that, in order to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 2, a multifaceted intervention approach should be considered to prevent both forms of malnutrition in women of reproductive age. This can be achieved by raising awareness and promoting healthy behaviors such as healthy eating and physical activity, especially among educated women, women from wealthy households, and women exposed to the media.

A Systematic Review of Areal Units and Adjacency Used in Bayesian Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Conditional Autoregressive Models in Health Research

Advancements in Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal modelling have been observed in recent years. Despite this, there are unresolved issues about the choice of appropriate spatial unit and adjacency matrix in disease mapping. There is limited systematic review evidence on this topic. This review aimed to address these problems. We searched seven databases to find published articles on this topic. A modified quality assessment tool was used to assess the quality of studies. A total of 52 studies were included, of which 26 (50.0%) were on infectious diseases, 10 (19.2%) on chronic diseases, 8 (15.5%) on maternal and child health, and 8 (15.5%) on other health-related outcomes. Only 6 studies reported the reasons for using the specified spatial unit, 8 (15.3%) studies conducted sensitivity analysis for prior selection, and 39 (75%) of the studies used Queen contiguity adjacency. This review highlights existing variation and limitations in the specification of Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal models used in health research. We found that majority of the studies failed to report the rationale for the choice of spatial units, perform sensitivity analyses on the priors, or evaluate the choice of neighbourhood adjacency, all of which can potentially affect findings in their studies.

Modelling of Hepatitis B Virus vertical transmission dynamics in Ethiopia: a compartmental modelling approach

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B (HB) is a virus which causes a potentially fatal liver infection. It is a DNA virus belonging to the Hepadnaviridae virus family. Africa, after Asia, has the second highest number of chronic HBV carriers and is considered a high-endemic region. Ethiopia is classified as a country with a high prevalence of viral hepatitis and with nations that lack a systematic strategy for viral hepatitis surveillance.

METHODS

S-I-C-R deterministic model was developed and the numerical simulations were done in "R" statistical and programming software. Fixed population assumption was considered so as to develop a simple model which could predict the HBV vertical transmission for the next 5 decades.

RESULTS

The model revealed that significant number of populations will be infected and become carrier till the end the next 49 years even though it has decreasing trend. It was predicted that 271,719 people will die of HBV complications if no intervention will be made on its vertical transmission. The sensitivity analysis result showed that the force of infection has the most important parameter in the vertical transmission dynamics of hepatitis B. Provision of hepatitis B immunoglobulin (HBVIG) and vaccines at the time of delivery could decrease the force of infection by more than half and 51,892 lives will be saved if the intervention is offered for 50% of deliveries in Ethiopia.

CONCLUSION

Despite the fact that the incidence of HBV vertical transmission is substantial, it is expected to decline during the next five decades. However, the situation necessitates immediate attention, since it results in thousands of deaths if no action is taken. Offering HBVIG and vaccinations to the 50% of infants can save many lives and reduces the force of infection by more than a half.

Estimating the impact of birth interval on under-five mortality in east african countries: a propensity score matching analysis

BACKGROUND

Under-five mortality remains a global public health concern, particularly in East African countries. Short birth interval is highly associated with under-five mortality, and birth spacing has a significant effect on a child's likelihood of survival. The association between short birth intervals and under-five mortality was demonstrated by numerous observational studies. However, the effect of short birth intervals on under-five mortality has not been investigated yet. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the impact of short birth intervals on under-five mortality in East Africa using Propensity Matched Analysis.

METHODS

A secondary data analysis was conducted based on the most recent Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data of 12 East African countries. A total weighted sample of 105,662 live births was considered for this study. A PSM analysis was carried out to evaluate the effect of short birth intervals on under-five mortality. Under-five mortality was the outcome variable, while the short birth interval was considered a treatment variable. To determine the Average Treatment Effect on the population (ATE), Average Treatment Effect on the treated (ATT), and Average Treatment Effect on the untreated (ATU), we performed PSM analysis with a logit-based model using the psmatch2 ate STATA function. The quality of matching was assessed statistically and graphically. The common support assumption was checked and fulfilled. We have employed Mantel-Haenszel bounds to examine whether the result would be free from hidden bias or not.

RESULTS

The prevalence of short birth intervals in East Africa was 44%. The under-five mortality rate among mothers who had optimal birth intervals was 39.9 (95% CI: 38.3, 41.5) per 1000 live births while it was 60.6 (95% CI: 58.5, 62.8) per 1000 live births among mothers who had a short birth intervals. Propensity score matching split births from mothers into treatment and control groups based on the preceding birth interval. In the PSM analysis, the ATT values in the treated and control groups were 6.09% and 3.97%, respectively, showed under-five mortality among births to mothers with short birth intervals was 2.17% higher than births to mothers who had an optimal birth interval. The ATU values in the intervention and control groups were 3.90% and 6.06%, respectively, indicating that for births from women who had an optimal birth interval, the chance of dying within five years would increase by 2.17% if they were born to mother with short birth interval. The final ATE estimate was 2.14% among the population. After matching, there was no significant difference in baseline characteristics between the treated and control groups (p-value > 0.05), which indicates the quality of matching was good.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that enhancing mothers to have optimal birth spacing is likely to be an effective approach to reducing the incidence of under-five mortality. Our findings suggest that births to mothers with short birth intervals have an increased risk of death in the first five years of life than births to mothers who had an optimal birth interval. Therefore, public health programs should enhance interventions targeting improving birth spacing to reduce the incidence of under-five mortality in low-and middle-income countries like East African countries. Moreover, to achieve a significant reduction in the under-five mortality rate, interventions that encourage birth spacing should be considered. This will improve child survival and help in attaining Sustainable Development Goal targets in East African countries.

A Systematic Review of Joint Spatial and Spatiotemporal Models in Health Research

With the advancement of spatial analysis approaches, methodological research addressing the technical and statistical issues related to joint spatial and spatiotemporal models has increased. Despite the benefits of spatial modelling of several interrelated outcomes simultaneously, there has been no published systematic review on this topic, specifically when such models would be useful. This systematic review therefore aimed at reviewing health research published using joint spatial and spatiotemporal models. A systematic search of published studies that applied joint spatial and spatiotemporal models was performed using six electronic databases without geographic restriction. A search with the developed search terms yielded 4077 studies, from which 43 studies were included for the systematic review, including 15 studies focused on infectious diseases and 11 on cancer. Most of the studies (81.40%) were performed based on the Bayesian framework. Different joint spatial and spatiotemporal models were applied based on the nature of the data, population size, the incidence of outcomes, and assumptions. This review found that when the outcome is rare or the population is small, joint spatial and spatiotemporal models provide better performance by borrowing strength from related health outcomes which have a higher prevalence. A framework for the design, analysis, and reporting of such studies is also needed.

Spatial distribution and multilevel analysis of factors associated with child marriage in Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Child marriage among women has become a major threat to the rights of women, especially in low- and middle-income countries. The marriage of girls below age 18 y is a major public and global health challenge. Therefore, this study examined the spatial pattern and factors associated with child marriage in Nigeria.

METHODS

The data were sourced from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. The study included a total of 4283 young women aged 20-24 y. The findings were provided in the form of spatial maps and adjusted ORs (aORs) with 95% confidence interval (CI).

RESULTS

Hotspot areas for child marriage in Nigeria were located in Sokoto, Kebbi, Katsina, Kano, Jigawa, Yobe, Bauchi, Niger, Borno, Gombe, and Adamawa. The prevalence of child marriage in Nigeria was 41.50%. The likelihood of child marriage in Nigeria was high among those currently working (aOR=1.31; 95% CI 1.11 to 1.55) compared with young women who were not working. On the other hand, young women whose partners had secondary education and above (aOR=0.57; 95% CI 0.45 to 0.73) were less likely to report child marriage in Nigeria compared with those whose partners had no education.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of the study indicate that there are several hotspots in Nigeria that need to be targeted when implementing interventions aimed at eliminating child marriage in the country.

Appropriate feeding practice and associated factors among under-five children with diarrheal disease in sub-Saharan Africa: a multi-country analysis

BACKGROUND

Diarrheal disease is one of the leading causes of child mortality and morbidity in low-income countries. Although the provision of more fluid and solid foods during diarrhea are important to treat the diseases, in Africa, food and fluid restrictions are common during diarrheal illness. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine appropriate feeding practice and associated factors among under-five children with diarrheal disease in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

METHODS

We have used the appended most recent demographic and health survey (DHS) datasets of 35 sub-Saharan countries conducted from 2010 to 2020. A total weighted sample of 42,882 living children with diarrhea were included in the analyses. Multivariable multilevel binary logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with appropriate child feeding practice in SSA. A p value of ≤ 0.05 was used as a cut of point to declare statistically significant variables.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of appropriate child feeding practice in this study was 10.45% (95% CI 10.17-10.74). The odds of having appropriate child feeding practice was higher among women with primary (AOR = 1.27: 1.17-1.37), secondary (AOR = 1.38: 1.25-1.52), and higher education level (AOR = 1.52: 1.21-1.90), media exposure (AOR = 1.11: 1.11-1.29), richer (AOR = 1.23:1.01-1.26) and richest (AOR = 1.19:1.05-1.35) wealth index, and currently working (AOR = 1.12: 1.04-1.19).

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of appropriate child feeding practice in this study was found to be very low. It advisable to reduce diarrhea-related child mortality through enhancing diarrhea management practice especially by working on the after mentioned factors.

Determinants of good vitamin A consumption in the 12 East Africa Countries using recent Demographic and health survey

BACKGROUND

Vitamin A one of the important micronutrients that it cannot be made in the human body and must be taken from outside the body through the diet. Ensuring that vitamin A is available in any form in sufficient quantities remains a challenge, especially in regions where access to vitamin A-containing foods and healthcare interventions is limited. As a result, vitamin A deficiency (VAD) becomes a common form of micronutrient deficiency. To the best of our knowledge, there is limited evidence on determinants of good Vitamin A consumption in East African countries. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the magnitude and determinants of good vitamin A consumption in East African countries.

METHODS

A recent Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) of twelve East African countries were included to determine the magnitude and determinants of good vitamin A consumption. A total of 32,275 study participants were included in this study. A multilevel logistic regression model was used to estimate the association between the likelihood of good vitamin A-rich food consumption. Both community and individual levels were used as independent variables. Adjusted odds ratio and its 95% confidence interval were used to see the strength of the association.

RESULT

The pooled magnitude of good vitamin A consumption was 62.91% with a 95% CI of 62.3 to 63.43. The higher proportion of good vitamin A consumption 80.84% was recorded in Burundi and the smallest good vitamin A consumption 34.12% was recorded in Kenya. From the multilevel logistic regression model, women's age, marital status, maternal education, wealth index, maternal occupation, children's age in a month, media exposure, literacy rate, and parity were significantly associated with good vitamin A consumption in East Africa.

CONCLUSION

The magnitude of good vitamin A consumption in twelve East African countries is low. To increase good vitamin A consumption health education through the mass media and enhancing the economic status of women is recommended. Planners and implementers should give attention and priority to identified determinants to enhance good vitamin A consumption.

Spatial distribution and predictors of lifetime experience of intimate partner violence among women in South Africa

In recent times, intimate partner has gained significant attention. However, there is limited evidence on the spatial distribution and predictors of intimate partner violence. Therefore, this study examined the spatial distribution and predictors of intimate partner violence in South Africa. The dataset for this study was obtained from a cross-sectional survey of the 2016 South Africa Demographic and Health Survey. We adopted both spatial and multilevel analyses to show the distribution and predictors of intimate partner violence among 2,410 women of reproductive age who had ever experienced intimate partner violence in their lifetime in South Africa. The spatial distribution of intimate partner violence in South Africa ranged from 0 to 100 percent. Western Cape, Free State, and Eastern Cape were predicted areas that showed a high proportion of intimate partner violence in South Africa. The likelihood of experiencing intimate partner violence among women in South Africa was high among those who were cohabiting [aOR = 1.41; 95%(CI = 1.10-1.81)] and women who were previously married [aOR = 2.09; 95%(CI = 1.30-3.36)], compared to women who were currently married. Women who lived in households with middle [aOR = 0.67; 95%(CI = 0.48-0.95)] and richest wealth index [aOR = 0.57; 95%(CI = 0.34-0.97)] were less likely to experience lifetime intimate partner violence compared to those of the poorest wealth index. The study concludes that there is a regional variation in the distribution of intimate partner violence in South Africa. A high prevalence of intimate partner violence was found among women who live in the Western Cape, Free State, and Eastern Cape. Furthermore, predictors such as women within the poorest wealth index, women who were cohabiting and those who were previously married should be considered in the development and implementation of interventions against intimate partner violence in South Africa.

High-risk fertility behaviours among women of reproductive ages in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Prevalence, correlates, and spatial distribution

BACKGROUND

High-risk fertility behaviour remains a major public health in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, like other sub-Saharan Africa countries, especially because Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is very high in the country, estimated at 6.6 children. Despite the commendable progress in reducing maternal deaths in the region, sub-Saharan Africa is still lagging very behind compared with other regions. Yet, high-risk fertility behaviours are pivotal to improve maternal and child health. This study aims to assess geographical variations of, and to identify risk factors associated with high-risk fertility behaviours among married women in the Democratic Republic of the Congo using the 2013-14 Demographic and Health Survey.

METHODS

Overall, 11,497 married women were selected from a nationally representative using a two-stage sampling design. Standard logistic regressions were performed to identify individual- and household/community-level factors associated with high-risk fertility behaviours. Additionally, interactions between women's age and education, and urban residence were tested. Bernoulli based spatial scan statistics were used to identify the presence of high-risk fertility behaviours spatial clusters using Kulldorff's SaTScan version 9.6 software. ArcGIS 10.7 was used to visualize the spatial variations of high-risk fertility behaviours. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) analysis was employed using Multiscale GWR version 2.0 software.

RESULTS

Findings indicated that more than two-third of married women exhibited high-risk fertility behaviours in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Multivariate logistic regression showed that education was negatively and significantly associated with the odds of high-risk fertility behaviours. In contrast, women's age significantly increased the odds of high-risk fertility behaviours. Interactions between urban residence and women's education and age confirmed the urban advantage identified from previous studies. Finally, high-risk fertility behaviours were highly clustered in the Northeastern provinces of the country.

CONCLUSION

The study showed that there were significant geographical variations of high-risk fertility behaviours across provinces in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The paper also identified significant-high hot spots of high-risk fertility behaviours in the Northeastern provinces of the country. To reduce high-risk fertility behaviours, and ultimately improve maternal and child outcomes in the country, policymakers and health planners need to strategically address these inequalities. Finally, this paper highlighted the persistent needs of country-specific studies due to differences across sub-Saharan African countries in terms of social development and cultures.

Spatial and Multilevel Analysis of Unscheduled Contraceptive Discontinuation in Ethiopia: Further analysis of 2005 and 2016 Ethiopia Demography and Health Surveys

Background

Unscheduled discontinuation of contraceptives is a public health problem among women of reproductive age. Particularly, it is associated with unwanted pregnancies that lead to maternal and child mortality, but little is known about the spatial distribution of the problem. Therefore, this study aims to assess the spatial distribution and associated factors of unscheduled contraceptive discontinuation in Ethiopia.

Method

This study used secondary data from the Ethiopia Demography and Health Survey (EDHS) data of 2005 and 2016. The study population was women who used contraceptives in the preceding 5 years before the survey. A total of 2,327 and 3,858 eligible women were included in the final analysis of the 2005 and 2016 EDHS, respectively. For the spatial analysis, both the 2005 and the 2016 EDHS data were analyzed using ArcGIS version 10.7, while for multilevel regression analysis, the 2016 EDHS data were used. The final model reported an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI), and a p-value of 0.05 was used to declare statistical significance.

Result

This study revealed that unscheduled discontinuation of contraceptives varied geographically, and hotspots were detected in the central, north, and eastern parts of Ethiopia. Moreover, diploma and higher education (AOR = 1.40; 95% CI: 1.01-1.95), urban residence (AOR = 1.37; 95% CI: 1.08-1.72), history of termination of pregnancy (AOR = 1.47; 95% CI: 1.14-1.94), married women (AOR = 10.79; 95% CI: 6.98-16.69), separated/divorced women (AOR = 1.54: 95% CI: 1.07-2.30), -two to four number of children (AOR = 1.46; 95% CI: 1.15-1.84), and involvement in the decision-making process of contraceptive use (AOR = 39.26; 95% CI: 28.84-53.45) were all factors associated with unscheduled discontinuation of contraceptives.

Conclusion

This study revealed that unscheduled discontinuation of contraceptive distribution was significantly clustered in the central, north, and eastern parts of Ethiopia, as found in two surveys. The magnitude of this discontinuation increased from 2005 to 2016. The finding underscores that further interventions such as the availability of multiple mixed methods and improvement in women's decision-making ability in the choice of contraceptive methods and utilization are needed in hotspot areas of Ethiopia.

Exploring the spatial variation and associated factors of childhood febrile illness among under-five children in Ethiopia: Geographically weighted regression analysis

BACKGROUND

The global burden of febrile illness and the contribution of many fever inducing pathogens have been difficult to quantify and characterize. However, in sub-Saharan Africa it is clear that febrile illness is a common cause of hospital admission, illness and death including in Ethiopia. Therefore the major aim of this study is to explore the spatial variation and associated factors of childhood febrile illness among under-five children in Ethiopia.

METHODS

This study were based on the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic health survey data. A total weighted sample of 10,127 under- five children was included. Data management was done using Stata version-14, Arc-GIS version-10.8 and SatsScan version- 9.6 statistical software. Multi-level log binomial model was fitted to identify factors associated with childhood febrile illness. Variables with a p-value < 0.2 in the bi-variable analysis were considered for the multivariable analysis. In the multivariable multilevel log binomial regression analysis p-value< 0.05, the APR with the 95% CI was reported. Global spatial autocorrelation was done to assess the spatial pattern of childhood febrile illness. Spatial regression was done to identify factors associated with the spatial variations of childhood febrile illness and model comparison was based on adjusted R2 and AICc.

RESULT

The prevalence of febrile illness among under-five children was 13.6% (95% CI: 12.6%, 14 .7%) with significant spatial variation across regions of Ethiopia with Moran's I value of 0.148. The significant hotspot areas of childhood febrile illness were identified in the Tigray, Southeast of Amhara, and North SNPPR. In the GWR analysis, the proportion of PNC, children who had diarrhea, ARI, being 1st birth order, were significant explanatory variables. In the multilevel log binomial regression age of children 7-24 months(APR = 1.33, 95% CI: (1.03, 1.72)), maternal age 30-39 years (APR = 1.36 95% CI: 1.02, 1.80)), number of children (APR = 1.78, 95% CI: 0.96, 3.3), diarrhea(APR = 5.3% 95% CI: (4.09, 6.06)), ARI (APR = 11.5, 95% CI: (9.2, 14.2)) and stunting(APR = 1.21; 95% CI: (0.98, 1.49) were significantly associated with childhood febrile illness.

CONCLUSION

Childhood febrile illness remains public health problem in Ethiopia. On spatial regression analysis proportion of women who had PNC, proportion of children who had diarrhea, proportion of children who had ARI, and proportion of children who had being 1st birth order were associated factors. The detailed map of childhood febrile illness and its predictors could assist health program planners and policy makers to design targeted public health interventions for febrile illness.

Prevalence and factors associated with unintended pregnancy among adolescent girls and young women in sub-Saharan Africa, a multilevel analysis

BACKGROUND

Unintended pregnancy predisposes women to unsafe abortion, malnutrition, mental illness, and even death. Though adolescent girls and young women are at higher risk of unintended pregnancy, there is a paucity of evidence in its burden and associated factors in sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the prevalence and factors associated with unintended pregnancy among adolescent girls and young women in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHOD

This study was a secondary data analysis of 36 sub-Saharan African countries with a total weighted sample of 17,797 adolescent girls and young women. A multilevel logistic regression model was fitted and, the Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) with a 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was reported to assess the association between the independent variables and unintended pregnancy in Sub-Saharan Africa.

RESULT

The pooled prevalence of unintended pregnancy in sub-Saharan Africa was 30.01 with 95% CI (29.38-30.74). In multivariable multilevel logistic regression analysis, adolescent girls, and young women with higher education (AOR = 0.71 95%CI 0.52-0.97), those who know modern contraceptive methods (AOR = 0.86 95%CI 0.75-0.98), and traditional contraceptive methods (AOR = 0.90, 95%CI 0.59-0.95), married (AOR = 0.80, 95%CI 0.73-0.88), those from female-headed households (AOR = 0.86,95%CI 0.78-0.94), had lower odds of unintended pregnancy. Whereas adolescent girls and young women from Central Africa (AOR = 2.09,95%CI 1.23-3.55), southern Africa (AOR = 5.23, 95%CI 2.71-10.09), and Eastern Africa (AOR = 1.07,95%CI 1.07-2.66) had higher odds of unintended pregnancy.

CONCLUSION

Prevalence of unintended pregnancy in Sub-Saharan Africa is high. Therefore, educating adolescent girls and young women, and improving their knowledge about family planning services is vital. It is also better for the government of countries in sub-Saharan Africa and other global and local stakeholders to work hard to ensure universal access to sexual and reproductive healthcare services, including family planning, education, and the integration of reproductive health into national strategies and programs to reduce unintended pregnancy.

Understanding the rural-urban disparity in acute respiratory infection symptoms among under-five children in Sub-Saharan Africa: a multivariate decomposition analysis

Background

Acute Respiratory Infections (ARIs) account for more than 6% of the worldwide disease burden in children under the age of five, with the majority occurring in Sub-Saharan Africa. Rural children are more vulnerable to and disproportionately affected by ARIs. As a result, we examined the rural–urban disparity in the prevalence of ARI symptoms and associated factors among children under the age of five in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

We used the most recent Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from 36 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study included 199,130 weighted samples in total. To identify variables associated with ARIs symptoms, a multilevel binary logistic regression model was fitted. The Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) with a 95% CI was used to determine the statistical significance and strength of the association. To explain the rural–urban disparity in ARI prevalence, a logit-based multivariate decomposition analysis was used.

Results

Being female, ever breastfeeding, belonging to a poorer, better wealth status, and having better maternal educational status were significantly associated with lower odds of ARIs among under-five children. Whereas, small size or large size at birth, not taking vitamin A supplementation, being severely underweight, having diarrhea, didn’t have media exposure, never had the vaccination, being aged 36–47 months, and being aged 48–59 months were significantly associated with higher odds of ARIs among under-five children. The multivariate decomposition analysis revealed that the difference in characteristics (endowment) across residences explained 64.7% of the overall rural–urban difference in the prevalence of ARIs, while the difference in the effect of characteristics (change in coefficient) explained 35.3%.

Conclusion

This study found that rural children were highly affected by ARIs in SSA. To reduce the excess ARIs in rural children, public health interventions aimed at impoverished households, home births, and unvaccinated and malnourished children are crucial.

Geographic variation and factors associated with under-five mortality in Ethiopia. A spatial and multilevel analysis of Ethiopian mini demographic and health survey 2019

BACKGROUND

The distribution of under-five mortality (U5M) worldwide is uneven and the burden is higher in Sub-Saharan African countries, which account for more than 53% of the global under-five mortality. In Ethiopia, though U5M decreased substantially between 1990 and 2019, it remains excessively high and unevenly distributed. Therefore, this study aimed to assess geographic variation and factors associated with under-five mortality (U5M) in Ethiopia.

METHODS

We sourced data from the most recent nationally representative 2019 Ethiopian Mini-Demographic and Health Survey for this study. A sample size of 5,695 total births was considered. Descriptive, analytical analysis and spatial analysis were conducted using STATA version 16. Both multilevel and spatial analyses were employed to ascertain the factors associated with U5M in Ethiopia.

RESULTS

The U5M was 5.9% with a 95% CI 5.4% to 6.6%. Based on the multivariable multilevel logistic regression model results, the following characteristics were associated with under-five mortality: family size (AOR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.84,0.99), number of under-five children in the family (AOR = 0.17, 95% CI: 0.14, 0.21), multiple birth (AOR = 14.4, 95% CI: 8.5, 24.3), children who were breastfed for less than 6 months (AOR = 5.04, 95% CI: 3.81, 6.67), people whose main roof is palm (AOR = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.34, 0.96), under-five children who are the sixth or more child to be born (AOR = 2.46, 95% CI: 1.49, 4.06), institutional delivery (AOR = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.41, 0.81), resident of Somali and Afar region (AOR = 3.46, 95% CI: 1.58, 7.55) and (AOR = 2.54, 95% CI: 1.10, 5.85), respectively. Spatial analysis revealed that hot spot areas of under-five mortality were located in the Dire Dawa and Somali regions.

CONCLUSION

Under-five mortality in Ethiopia is high and unacceptable when compared to the 2030 sustainable development target, which aims for 25 per 1000 live births. Breastfeeding for less than 6 months, twin births, institutional delivery and high-risk areas of under-five mortality (Somali and Dire Dawa) are modifiable risk factors. Therefore, maternal and community education on the advantages of breastfeeding and institutional delivery is highly recommended. Women who deliver twins should be given special attention. An effective strategy should be designed for intervention in under-five mortality hot spot areas such as Somali and Dire Dawa.

Spatial variation and factors associated with home delivery after ANC visit in Ethiopia; spatial and multilevel analysis

Introduction

Institutional delivery is crucial to reduce maternal and neonatal mortality as well as serious morbidities. However, in Ethiopia, home delivery (attended by an unskilled birth attendant) after antenatal care (ANC) visit is highly in practice. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the spatial variation and determinants of home delivery after antenatal care visits in Ethiopia.

Method

A secondary data analysis was conducted using the 2019 mini Ethiopian demographic and health survey. A total of 2,923 women who had ANC visits were included. Spatial analysis was done by using GIS 10.7 and SaTscan 9.6. The risk areas for home delivery from GIS and spatial scan statistics results were reported. A multi-level logistic regression model was fitted using Stata14 to identify individual and community-level factors associated with home delivery after ANC visit. Finally, AOR with 95% CI and random effects were reported.

Result

Home delivery after ANC visit was spatially clustered in Ethiopia(Moran’s index = 0.52, p-value <0.01). The primary clusters were detected in Oromia and SNNP region (LLR = 37.48, p < 0.001 and RR = 2.30) and secondary clusters were located in Benishangul Gumuz, Amhara, Tigray and Afar (LLR = 29.45, p<0.001 and RR = 1.54). Being rural resident (AOR = 2.52; 95%CI 1.09–5.78), having no formal education (AOR = 3.19;95% CI 1.11–9.16), being in the poor (AOR = 2.20;95%CI 1.51–3.22) and middle wealth index (AOR = 2.07;95% CI 1.44–2.98), having one ANC visit (AOR = 2.64; 95% CI 1.41–4.94), and living in the agrarian region (AOR = 3.63; 95%CI 1.03–12.77) had increased the odds of home delivery after ANC visit.

Conclusion and recommendation

Home delivery after ANC visit was spatially clustered in Ethiopia. Factors like maternal education, wealth index, number of ANC visits, residency and region were significantly associated with home delivery after ANC visit. Therefore, it is better to increase the number of ANC contact by giving health education, especially for women with low levels of education and better to improve the wealth status of women. A special strategy is also vital to reduce home delivery after ANC visit in those high-risk regions.

Incidence of infant mortality and its predictors in East Africa using Gompertz gamma shared frailty model

Background

Globally, infant mortality is a major public health concern and a sensitive indicator of countries' socio-economic and health status. Despite the substantial reduction of under-five mortality in sub-Saharan African countries specifically in East Africa, the infant mortality rate remains highest and too far below to achieve the WHO target. As to our search of the literature is concerned, there is a dearth of evidence on the incidence and predictors of infant mortality in East Africa. Therefore, this study investigated the incidence of infant mortality and its predictors in East Africa.

Methods

The present study has utilized 138,803 weighted samples from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs) of 12 East African countries. Considering the hierarchical nature of DHS data shared frailty parametric survival models were fitted and compared based on deviance (-2LLR), AIC, and BIC. Gompertz gamma shared frailty model was the best-fitted model for the data since it had the lowest deviance, AIC, and BIC values. Variables with a p-value < 0.2 in the bi-variable analysis were considered for the multivariable analysis. In the multivariable Gompertz gamma shared analysis, the Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was reported to declare the significant predictors of infant mortality.

Results

The infant mortality rate in East Africa was 41.41 per 1000 live births. Mothers aged 25–34 years, wanted birth, health facility delivery, 1–3 ANC visit, being 2nd- 4th birth order, 5th and above, the birth interval of 24–48 months, and birth interval of 49 months and above were significantly associated with lower risk of infant mortality. Whereas women who didn’t have formal education, women who didn't participate in making health care decisions making, being male children, cesarean delivery, small size at birth, and large size at birth were significantly associated with a higher risk of infant mortality.

Conclusion

Despite the substantial progress in improving maternal and child health, this study showed that infant mortality is still a major public health concern in East Africa. Maternal age, place of delivery, maternal education, birth size, sex of the child, mode of delivery, women's autonomy, birth order, birth interval, and ANC visit were found to be significant predictors of infant mortality. Therefore, public health interventions enhancing health facility delivery, ANC visit, maternal education, birth spacing, and empowering women are crucial for reducing the incidence of infant mortality in East Africa.

Spatial distribution and predictors of intimate partner violence among women in Nigeria

Background

Globally, intimate partner violence is one of the major health problems women face every day. Its consequences are enormous. However, our search of the available literature revealed that no study had examined the spatial distribution of intimate partner violence and the predictors of intimate partner violence among women in Nigeria using current nationally representative data. This study, therefore, sought to examine the spatial distribution of intimate partner violence and its predictors among women in Nigeria.

Method

We sourced data from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey for this study. A sample size of 8,968 women was considered for this study. We employed both multilevel and spatial analyses to ascertain the factors associated with intimate partner violence and its spatial clustering.

Results

The hot spot areas for intimate partner violence in Nigeria were Gombe, Bauchi, Adamawa, Plateau, Kogi, Edo, Ebonyi, and Rivers. The likelihood of experiencing intimate partner violence among women in Nigeria was high among women with primary education, those that were previously married, women currently working, women who were Yoruba, women with parity of four and above and women who were exposed to mass media while low odds of intimate partner violence was reported among women who were Muslims. Women who resided in the North East region and those who lived in communities with medium socioeconomic status were more likely to experience intimate partner violence, while women who were within the richest wealth index and those residing in the South West region were less likely to experience intimate partner violence.

Conclusion

The study found regional variations in the prevalence of intimate partner violence among women in Nigeria. Therefore, policymakers should focus their attention on the hotspots for intimate partner violence in the country. There is also the need to consider the factors identified in this study to reduce intimate partner violence among women in Nigeria. Empowering women would yield a significant improvement in the fight against gender-based violence.

Multilevel analysis of determinants of anemia among young women (15-24) in sub-Sahara Africa

Background

Anemia is a disorder by which the body’s red blood cells are inadequate to fulfill The physiological needs of the body. The World Health Organization (WHO) defines anemia as having a hemoglobin (Hb) level of less than 120 g/l for nonpregnant women and 110 g/l for pregnant women. It has serious implications for human health as well as negative social and economic consequences like decreased workforce, impaired learning, and stunted child development. As these women are highly vulnerable to different micro and macro-nutritive deficiency associated with rapid physical, mental and psychological development, particular attention should be given to a young woman (15–24). Therefore this study assesses the magnitude and determinants of anemia among young women in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

Methods

This was a secondary data analysis based on the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. We pooled the most recent DHS surveys done in 31 sub-Sahara Africa and a total weighted sample of 88, 832 young women (15–24 years) were included. At bivariable analysis, variables with a p-value of ≤0.2 were selected for multivariable analysis, and at the multivariable analysis variables with a p-value of ≤0.05 were considered as a significant factor associated with anemia among young women (15–24 years).

Results

The pooled prevalence of anemia among young women (15–24) in sub-Sahara Africa was 42.17% [95%CI: 41.85, 42.50]. Young women of aged 20–24 years [AOR = 0.92, 95%CI: 0.89–0.95], women from rich household [AOR = 0.83, 95%CI: 0.80–0.87], young women with primary [AOR = 0.7, 95%CI: 0.67–0.72], secondary [AOR = 0.72, 95%CI: 0.69–0.75] and higher educational status [AOR = 0.58, 95%CI: 0.53–0.64], married women [AOR = 1.12, 95%CI: 1.08–1.17], divorced/separated/widowed women [AOR = 1.16, 95%CI: 1.08–1.25], women who use modern contraceptive [AOR = 0.65, 95%CI: 0.62–0.67], young women who ever had terminated pregnancy [AOR = 1.22, 95%CI: 1.14–1.29], overweight young woman [AOR = 0.79, 95%CI: 0.76–0.82] and young women from female-headed household [AOR = 0.94, 95%CI: 0.91–0.97] were the individual-level factors that significantly associated with anemia of young women. Meanwhile, being a rural dweller [AOR = 0.82, 95%CI: 0.79–0.85] and high community educational level [AOR = 0.87, 95%CI: 0.70–0.97] were the community level determinant of anemia. Interclass correlation coefficient (ICC), Median Odds Ratio (MOR) and Percentage change in variance (PCV) were done for the assessment of the random effect model of the multilevel analysis. The ICC value in the null model was 0.05, which indicates that 5% of the variation in anemia among young women in sub-Saharan Africa was attributed to community-level factors.

Conclusion

The prevalence of anemia among young women in this study was higher compared with reports from the previous studies. Divorced/separated/widowed women, married women and women with ever terminated pregnancy, young women with primary, secondary and higher educational achievement, being rural dwellers, young women aged 20–24 years, being from rich households and women who used modern contraceptives were factors that significantly associated with anemia among young women. Therefore, particular attention should be given to those higher-risk women including, young women with a history of a terminated pregnancy, those from rural areas and young women aged 15–19 years to reduce the burden of anemia among these young women as the continuity of the future generation depends on the health of young women.

Minimum acceptable diet feeding practice and associated factors among children aged 6-23 months in east Africa: a multilevel binary logistic regression analysis of 2008-2018 demographic health survey data

BACKGROUND

Despite the proportion of receiving a minimum acceptable diet (minimum meal frequency and minimum dietary diversity) is lower in east Africa, there is limited evidence on minimum acceptable diet. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the minimum acceptable diet and associated factors among children aged 6-23 months in east Africa.

METHODS

A secondary data analysis of the most recent Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data of 12 east African countries was done. A total weighted sample of 34, 097 children aged 6-23 months were included. A multilevel binary logistic regression model was applied. The Intra-class Correlation Coefficient (ICC) and Median Odds Ratio (MOR) were calculated to assess the clustering effect. Besides, deviance was used for model comparison as the models are nested models. Both crude and adjusted Odds Ratio (OR) with a 95% Confidence Interval (CI) were reported as potential predictors of minimum acceptable diet feeding practice.

RESULTS

The prevalence of minimum acceptable diet feeding practice among children in east Africa was 11.56%; [95%CI; 11.22%, 11.90%]. In the multilevel analysis; child age of 12-17 month (AOR = 1.33: 95%CI; 1.20, 1.48), maternal primary (AOR = 1.21: 95%CI; 1.08, 1.35), secondary (AOR = 1.63: 95%CI; 1.44, 1.86) higher (AOR = 2.97: 95%CI; 2.30, 3.38) education level, media exposure (AOR = 1.38, 95%CI; 1.26, 1.51), household wealth statues (AOR = 1.28, 95%CI; 1.15, 1.42 for middle and AOR = 1.50: 95%CI; 1.42, 1.71 foe rich), employed mother (AOR = 1.27: 95%CI; 1.17, 1.37), maternal age 25-34 (AOR = 1.20: 95%CI; 1.09, 1.32) and 35-49 (AOR = 1.22: 95%; 1.06, 1.40) years, delivery in health facility (AOR = 1.43: 95%CI; 1.29, 1.59) and high community education level (AOR = 1.05: 95%CI; 1.01, 1.17) were positively associated with minimum acceptable diet child feeding practice. Meanwhile, the use of wood (AOR = 0.72: 95%CI; 0.61, 0.86) and animal dug (AOR = 0.34: 95%CI; 0.12, 0.95) as a source of cooking fuel and being from female-headed households (AOR = 0.88: 95%CI; 0.81, 0.96) were negatively associated with minimum acceptable diet feeding practice.

CONCLUSION

Child age, mother's educational level, source of cooking fuel, exposure to media, sex of household head, household wealth status, mother working status, age of the mother, place of delivery and community-level education were the significant determinants of minimum acceptable diet feeding practices. Therefore, designing public health interventions targeting higher-risk children such as those from the poorest household and strengthening mothers' education on acceptable child feed practices are recommended.

Barriers for health care access affects maternal continuum of care utilization in Ethiopia; spatial analysis and generalized estimating equation

BACKGROUND

Although Ethiopia had made a significant change in maternal morbidity and mortality over the past decades, it remains a major public health concern. World Health Organization designed maternal continuum of care to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality. However, majority of the mothers didn't utilize the maternal continuum of care. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the spatial distribution of incomplete utilization of maternal continuum of care and its associated factors in Ethiopia.

METHODS

This study was based on 2016 Demographic and Health Survey data of Ethiopia. A total weighted sample of 4,772 reproductive aged women were included. The study used ArcGIS and SaTScan software to explore the spatial distribution of incomplete utilization of maternal continuum of care. Besides, multivariable Generalized Estimating Equation was fitted to identify the associated factors of incomplete utilization of maternal continuum of care using STATA software. Model comparison was made based on Quasi Information Criteria. An adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence interval of the selected model was reported to identify significantly associated factors of incomplete utilization of maternal continuum of care.

RESULTS

The spatial analysis revealed that incomplete utilization of maternal continuum of care had significant spatial variation across the country. Primary clusters were detected at Somali, North-Eastern part of Oromia, and East part of Southern Nation Nationalities while secondary clusters were detected in the Central Amhara region. In multivariate GEE, rural residency, secondary education, higher education, Protestant religious follower's, Muslim religious follower's, poorer wealth index, richer wealth index, richest wealth index, currently working, having barriers for accessing health care, and exposure for mass media were significantly associated with incomplete utilization maternal continuum of care.

CONCLUSION

Incomplete utilization of maternal continuum of care had significant spatial variations in Ethiopia. Residence, wealth index, education, religion, and barriers for health care access, mass media exposure, and currently working were significantly associated with incomplete utilization of maternal continuum of care. Therefore, public health interventions targeted to enhance maternal service utilization and women empowerment in hotspot areas of incomplete utilization of maternal continuum of care are crucial for reducing maternal morbidity and mortality.

Progress in health among regions of Ethiopia, 1990-2019: a subnational country analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Previous Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) studies have reported national health estimates for Ethiopia. Substantial regional variations in socioeconomic status, population, demography, and access to health care within Ethiopia require comparable estimates at the subnational level. The GBD 2019 Ethiopia subnational analysis aimed to measure the progress and disparities in health across nine regions and two chartered cities.

METHODS

We gathered 1057 distinct data sources for Ethiopia and all regions and cities that included census, demographic surveillance, household surveys, disease registry, health service use, disease notifications, and other data for this analysis. Using all available data sources, we estimated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), total fertility rate (TFR), life expectancy, years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability-adjusted life-years, and risk-factor-attributable health loss with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for Ethiopia's nine regions and two chartered cities from 1990 to 2019. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, cause of death ensemble model, Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, and other models were used to generate fertility, mortality, cause of death, and disability rates. The risk factor attribution estimations followed the general framework established for comparative risk assessment.

FINDINGS

The SDI steadily improved in all regions and cities from 1990 to 2019, yet the disparity between the highest and lowest SDI increased by 54% during that period. The TFR declined from 6·91 (95% UI 6·59-7·20) in 1990 to 4·43 (4·01-4·92) in 2019, but the magnitude of decline also varied substantially among regions and cities. In 2019, TFR ranged from 6·41 (5·96-6·86) in Somali to 1·50 (1·26-1·80) in Addis Ababa. Life expectancy improved in Ethiopia by 21·93 years (21·79-22·07), from 46·91 years (45·71-48·11) in 1990 to 68·84 years (67·51-70·18) in 2019. Addis Ababa had the highest life expectancy at 70·86 years (68·91-72·65) in 2019; Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz had the lowest at 63·74 years (61·53-66·01) for Afar and 64.28 (61.99-66.63) for Benishangul-Gumuz. The overall increases in life expectancy were driven by declines in under-5 mortality and mortality from common infectious diseases, nutritional deficiency, and war and conflict. In 2019, the age-standardised all-cause death rate was the highest in Afar at 1353·38 per 100 000 population (1195·69-1526·19). The leading causes of premature mortality for all sexes in Ethiopia in 2019 were neonatal disorders, diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, stroke, HIV/AIDS, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, congenital defects, and diabetes. With high SDIs and life expectancy for all sexes, Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa, and Harari had low rates of premature mortality from the five leading causes, whereas regions with low SDIs and life expectancy for all sexes (Afar and Somali) had high rates of premature mortality from the leading causes. In 2019, child and maternal malnutrition; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; air pollution; high systolic blood pressure; alcohol use; and high fasting plasma glucose were the leading risk factors for health loss across regions and cities.

INTERPRETATION

There were substantial improvements in health over the past three decades across regions and chartered cities in Ethiopia. However, the progress, measured in SDI, life expectancy, TFR, premature mortality, disability, and risk factors, was not uniform. Federal and regional health policy makers should match strategies, resources, and interventions to disease burden and risk factors across regions and cities to achieve national and regional plans, Sustainable Development Goals, and universal health coverage targets.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Individual-level and community-level factors associated with eight or more antenatal care contacts in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from 36 sub-Saharan African countries

OBJECTIVE

To reduce maternal mortality, the WHO has been introducing several antenatal care (ANC) measures. Pregnancy-related preventable morbidity and mortality, on the other hand, remain alarmingly high. This study was conducted to estimate the magnitude and the factors associated with eight or more ANC visits in sub-Saharan Africa.

DESIGN

A population-based, cross-sectional investigation was conducted.

SETTING

Sub-Saharan African countries.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 300 575 women from recent Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) conducted in 36 sub-Saharan African countries from 2006 to 2018 were included in this study.

METHODS

The data were sourced from sub-Saharan African countries' recent DHS data set from 2006 to 2018. A multilevel logistic regression model was fitted to identify factors associated with ANC use. Adjusted OR, with 95% CI and a p value of less than 0.05, was employed to determine parameters linked to ANC use.

RESULTS

The pooled magnitude of eight or more ANC visits in sub-Saharan African countries was 6.8% (95% CI 6.7% to 6.9%). Residence, maternal education, husband's education, maternal occupation, wealth index, media exposure, contraceptive use and desired pregnancy were all positively associated with eight or more ANC visits in the multilevel logistic regression analysis, whereas birth order was negatively associated with eight or more ANC visits.

CONCLUSIONS

Compliance with the WHO guidelines on the minimum number of ANC contacts in sub-Saharan Africa is poor. We recommend that mother and child health programmes review existing policies and develop new policies to adopt, execute and address the obstacles to maintaining the WHO-recommended minimum of eight ANC interactions. Women's education, economic position, media exposure and family planning uptake should be prioritised and improved. Urgent intervention is required to meet the minimum of eight ANC contacts in sub-Saharan Africa.

Geographical variations and determinants of iron and folic acid supplementation during pregnancy in Ethiopia: analysis of 2019 mini demographic and health survey

Background

One of the packages of critical antenatal care treatments for pregnant women includes iron and folic acid (Fe/FA) supplementation. Using recently available and nationwide representative survey data, this study aimed to determine the spatial patterns and drivers of Fe/FA supplementation during pregnancy.

Method

The data for this study was obtained from Ethiopia’s 2019 Mini Demographic and Health Survey (EMDHS). We used the Kid’s Record (KR) dataset, and a total weighted sample of 3926 reproductive-age women who gave birth within the previous 5 years was used as the study’s final sample size. To analyze the spatial distributions (geographic variation of Fe/FA supplementation) different statistical software like Excel, ArcGIS, and Stata 14 were used. A two-level multilevel binary logistic regression model was fitted to identify both individual and community-level factors associated with Fe/FA supplementation during pregnancy.

Result

This study found that there were significant geographical variations of iron and folic acid supplementation across Ethiopia, eastern and southern parts of the country were predicted to have low Fe/FA supplementation coverage. Advanced maternal age (AOR = 0.75: 95%CI: 0.59 0.96), resides in developing region (AOR = 0.57, 95%CI: 0.43 0.74), not attended formal education (AOR = 0.60, 95%CI: 0.39 0.92), middle (AOR = 1.51, 95%CI: 18 1.93) and rich wealth status (AOR = 1.48, 95%CI: 1.15 1.91), and four and above ANC visits (AOR = 4.35 95%CI: 3.64 5.21) were determinants of iron and folic acid supplementation among pregnant women.

Conclusion

Our research found that there were geographical variations across the country, with low coverage seen in Ethiopia’s eastern and southern regions. Iron and folic acid supplementation coverage were inadequate among pregnant women with low education, advanced maternal age, and those from underdeveloped countries. Conversely, increasing iron and folic acid uptake was associated with higher socioeconomic class and four or more ANC visits. The findings of this study highlight the importance of increasing maternal health care, such as iron and folic acid supplements, for underserved populations.

Joint modeling of time to diabetic retinopathy and change in fasting blood sugar among type 2 diabetic patients, Northwest Ethiopia

This study aimed to assess changes in fasting blood sugar (FBS) levels, time to diabetic retinopathy (DR) and its predictors among type 2 diabetes patients in Ethiopia. An institution-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted at the University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital. The linear mixed effect model and Cox proportional hazard models were fitted separately, and later, the two models were fitted jointly using R software. Variables with a p value < 0.05 were considered significant predictors in the adjusted analysis. The incidence rate of DR was 2 per 100-person year of observation with a median follow-up time of 90.8 months (IQR 63.4). The current value and rate of change in FBS level were significant predictors of time to DR (AHR = 1.35; 95% CI 1.12-1.63) and (AHR = 1.70; 95% CI 1.21-2.39), respectively. Hypertension (AHR = 2.49; 95% CI 1.32-4.66), taking > 1 antidiabetic oral agent (AHR = 4.90; 95% CI 1.07-20.0) and more than 10 years duration (AHR = 0.17, 95% CI 0.06-0.46) were predictors of time to DR. This study revealed that the current value of FBS and the rate of FBS change were significantly associated with the time to DR.

Comprehensive knowledge about HIV/AIDS and associated factors among women of reproductive age in sub-Saharan Africa: a multilevel analysis using the most recent demographic and health survey of each country

Background

Women of reproductive age in sub-Saharan African (SSA) share the greatest burden of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Comprehensive knowledge about HIV is seen as pivotal in combating the epidemic. Therefore, this study aimed to assess comprehensive knowledge about HIV/AIDS and associated factors among women of reproductive age in sub-Saharan Africa.

Objective

To examine comprehensive knowledge about HIV/AIDS and associated factors among women of reproductive age in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

We used the most recent SSA countries Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data. To assess comprehensive knowledge, a composite score of six separate questions (can get HIV by witchcraft or supernatural means, can reduce risk of getting HIV by using condoms during sex, reduce the risk of getting HIV by having one sex partner only, can get HIV from mosquito bites, can get HIV by sharing food with a person who has HIV/AIDS, and a healthy-looking person can have HIV) was used. Those who answered all six questions correctly were considered to have comprehensive knowledge. To assess the factors associated with comprehensive knowledge of HIV/AIDS, we used a multilevel binary logistic regression model since the data had hierarchical nature.

Results

In this study, the comprehensive knowledge about HIV/AIDS was 38.56% (95% CI: 38.32, 38.75). Both individual and community-level factors were associated with comprehensive knowledge about HIV/AIDS. Among individual-level factors, older age, having primary and above educational level, being from wealthy households, contraceptive use, listening to the radio, and reading newspaper were associated with higher odds of comprehensive knowledge about HIV/AIDS. Being from urban areas and the Eastern African region were the community-level factors that were associated with higher odds of comprehensive knowledge about HIV/AIDS.

Conclusion

The study found that comprehensive knowledge of HIV/AIDS is low. Individual and community-level factors were associated with comprehensive knowledge of HIV/AIDS. Therefore, giving special attention to those young women, women who had no formal education, those from poor socioeconomic status, and those who are from remote areas could decrease the epidemics of HIV/AIDS by increasing the comprehensive knowledge about HIV/AIDS. Besides, it is better to strengthen media campaigns regarding HIV/AIDS to increase comprehensive knowledge about HIV/AIDS.

Determinants of accessing healthcare in Sub-Saharan Africa: a mixed-effect analysis of recent Demographic and Health Surveys from 36 countries

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess the determinants of accessing healthcare among reproductive-age women in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

DESIGN, SETTING AND ANALYSIS

Cross-sectional data were sourced from recent Demographic and Health Surveys in 36 SSA countries. We employed mixed-effect analysis to identify the determinants of accessing healthcare in SSA. OR and its 95% CI were reported for determinants associated with accessing healthcare.

OUTCOME

The outcome for this study was whether accessing healthcare was a 'big problem' or 'not a big problem'. Responses to these questions were categorised as a big problem and not a big problem.

PARTICIPANTS

A total weighted sample of 500 439 reproductive-age (15-49 years) women from each country's recent Demographic and Health Surveys from 2006 to 2018 were included in this study.

RESULTS

The pooled prevalence of healthcare access among reproductive-age women in SSA was 42.56% (95% CI 42.43% to 42.69%). The results of the mixed-effect analysis revealed that the determinants of accessing healthcare were urban residence (adjusted OR (AOR)=1.25, 95% CI 1.34 to 1.73), ability to read and write (AOR=1.15, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.28), primary education (AOR=1.08, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.12), secondary education and above (AOR=1.12, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.14), husband with primary education (AOR=1.06, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.1.12), husband with secondary education and above (AOR=1.22, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.27), middle wealth index (AOR=1.43, 95% CI 1.40 to 1.47), rich wealth index (AOR=2.19, 95% CI 2.13 to 2.24) and wanted pregnancy (AOR=1.27, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.29).

CONCLUSION

Healthcare access in SSA was found at 42.56%, which is very low even if Sustainable Development Goal 3.8 targeted universal health coverage for everyone so they can obtain the health services they need. The major determinants of healthcare access among reproductive-age women in SSA were urban residence, higher educational level, higher wealth index and wanted pregnancy. The findings of this study suggest and recommend strengthening and improving healthcare access for women who reside in the countryside, women with low level of education and women of low socioeconomic status.

Spatial distribution and factors associated with adolescent pregnancy in Nigeria: a multi-level analysis

Background

Adolescent pregnancy is a global public health and social phenomenon. However, the prevalence of adolescent pregnancy varies between and within countries. This study, therefore, sought to investigate the spatial distribution and factors associated with adolescent pregnancy in Nigeria.

Methods

Using data from the women’s recode file, a sample of 9448 adolescents aged 15-19 were considered as the sample size for this study. We employed a multilevel and spatial analyses to ascertain the factors associated with adolescent pregnancy and its spatial clustering.

Results

The spatial distribution of adolescent pregnancy in Nigeria ranges from 0 to 66.67%. A high proportion of adolescent pregnancy was located in the Northern parts of Nigeria. The likelihood of adolescent pregnancy in Nigeria was high among those who had sexual debut between 15 to 19 years [aOR = 1.49; 95%(CI = 1.16-1.92)], those who were currently married [aOR = 67.00; 95%(CI = 41.27-108.76)], and adolescents whose ethnicity were Igbo [aOR = 3.73; 95%(CI = 1.04-13.30)], while adolescents who were currently working [aOR = 0.69; 95%(CI = 0.55-0.88)] were less likely to have adolescent pregnancy.

Conclusion

A high proportion of adolescent pregnancy was located in the Northern parts of Nigeria. In addition, age at sexual debut, educational level, marital status, ethnicity, and working status were associated with adolescent pregnancy. Therefore, it is vital to take cognizant of these factors in designing adolescent pregnancy prevention programs or strengthening existing efforts in Nigeria.

Timely initiation of antenatal care and its associated factors among pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa: A multicountry analysis of Demographic and Health Surveys

BACKGROUND

Timely initiation of antenatal care (ANC) is an important component of ANC services that improve the health of the mother and the newborn. Mothers who begin attending ANC in a timely manner, can fully benefit from preventive and curative services. However, evidence in sub-Saharan Africa (sSA) indicated that the majority of pregnant mothers did not start their first visit timely. As our search concerned, there is no study that incorporates a large number of sub-Saharan Africa countries. Thus, the objective of this study was to assess the prevalence of timely initiation of ANC and its associated factors in 36 sSA countries.

METHODS

The Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) of 36 sSA countries were used for the analysis. The total weighted sample of 233,349 women aged 15-49 years who gave birth in the five years preceding the survey and who had ANC visit for their last child were included. A multi-level logistic regression model was used to examine the individual and community-level factors that influence the timely initiation of ANC. Results were presented using adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with 95% confidence interval (CI).

RESULTS

In this study, overall timely initiation of ANC visit was 38.0% (95% CI: 37.8-38.2), ranging from 14.5% in Mozambique to 68.6% in Liberia. In the final multilevel logistic regression model:- women with secondary education (AOR = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.11), higher education (AOR = 1.43; 95% CI: 1.36, 1.51), women aged 25-34 years (AOR = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.17, 1.23), ≥35 years (AOR = 1.30; 95% CI: 1.26, 1.35), women from richest household (AOR = 1.19; 95% CI: 1.14, 1.22), women perceiving distance from the health facility as not a big problem (AOR = 1.05; 95%CI: 1.03, 1.07), women exposed to media (AOR = 1.29; 95%CI: 1.26, 1.32), women living in communities with medium percentage of literacy (AOR = 1.51; 95%CI: 1.40, 1.63), and women living in communities with high percentage of literacy (AOR = 1.56; 95%CI: 1.38, 1.76) were more likely to initiate ANC timely. However, women who wanted their pregnancy later (AOR = 0.84; 95%CI: 0.82, 0.86), wanted no more pregnancy (AOR = 0.80; 95%CI: 0.77, 0.83), and women residing in the rural area (AOR = 0.90; 95%CI: 0.87, 0.92) were less likely to initiate ANC timely.

CONCLUSION

Even though the WHO recommends all women initiate ANC within 12 weeks of gestation, sSA recorded a low overall prevalence of timely initiation of ANC. Maternal education, pregnancy intention, residence, age, wealth status, media exposure, distance from health facility, and community-level literacy were significantly associated with timely initiation of ANC. Therefore, intervention efforts should focus on the identified factors in order to improve timely initiation of ANC in sSA. This can be done through the providing information and education to the community on the timing and importance of attending antenatal care and family planning to prevent unwanted pregnancy, especially in rural settings.

Depressive, Anxiety Symptom Frequency and Related Factors Among Prisoners During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Northeastern Ethiopia, a Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

Among the more than 10 million people imprisoned around the world, the rate of mental illness is higher than among the general population for various reasons. Although rates of mental illnesses such as depression and anxiety in this population may have changed as a response to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak and other factors, to our knowledge, no related studies have been conducted related to depression and anxiety in this population during the pandemic. Therefore, this study aimed to assess depression, anxiety, and associated factors among Dessie City prisoners during the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak.

METHODS

An institution-based cross-sectional survey was conducted in October 2020. A total of 420 prisoners were selected via a systematic sampling technique. PHQ-9 depression scale, generalized anxiety disorder-7 questionnaire, Oslo 3-item social support scale, insomnia severity index, and Brief COPE scale were used. Data were entered by using Epi-Data version 3.1 and finally exported to Statistical Package for Social Science Software version 21 for analysis. We fitted a multiple binary logistic regression model. Finally, an adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence interval was reported and factors with a p-value < 0.05 were considered as significant for depression and anxiety.

RESULTS

This study showed that 279 (66.4%) of imprisoned people had major depressive disorder with 95% CI of (61.4, 70.6), while 281 (66.9) had generalized anxiety disorder with 95% CI of (61.9, 71.9).

CONCLUSION

In this study, the overall prevalence of depression and anxiety was significantly high, and was related to a number of factors including COVID-19. Therefore, designing and implementing strategies for COVID-19 prevention and control in prisons is highly recommended to reduce mental health problems among prisoners.

Spatial distribution and factors associated with modern contraceptive use among women of reproductive age in Nigeria: A multilevel analysis

BACKGROUND

Evidence suggests that in countries with high fertility and fecundity rates, such as Nigeria, the promotion of modern contraceptive use prevents approximately 32% and 10% of maternal and child mortality, respectively. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the spatial distribution of modern contraceptive use and its predictors among women of reproductive age in Nigeria.

METHODS

The study employed a cross-sectional analysis of population-based data involving 24,281 women of reproductive age in Nigeria. The study adopted both multilevel and spatial analyses to identify the predictors of modern contraceptive use and its spatial clustering among women in Nigeria.

RESULTS

Modern contraceptive use among the study population in Nigeria ranged from 0% to 75%, with regional variations. The spatial analysis showed that areas with a low proportion of modern contraceptive use were Sokoto, Yobe, Borno, Katsina, Zamfara, Kebbi, Niger, Taraba and Delta. Areas with a high proportion of modern contraceptive use were Lagos, Oyo, Osun, Ekiti, Federal capital territory, Plateau, Adamawa, Imo, and Bayelsa. The multilevel analysis revealed that at the individual level, women with secondary/higher education, women from the Yoruba ethnic group, those who had four children and above, and those exposed to mass media had higher odds of using modern contraceptives. On the other hand, women who were 35 years and above, those who were married, and women who were practicing Islam were less likely to use modern contraceptives. At the household/community level, women from the richest households, those residing in communities with medium knowledge of modern contraceptive methods, and women residing in communities with a high literacy level were more likely to use modern contraceptives.

CONCLUSION

There were major variations in the use of modern contraception across various regions in Nigeria. As a result, areas with low contraceptive rates should be given the most deserving attention by promoting contraceptive education and use as well as considering significant factors at the individual and household/community levels.

Time to diabetic neuropathy and its predictors among newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in Northwest Ethiopia

Introduction

Despite the high number of patients suffering from the negative impact of diabetic neuropathy (DN) in Ethiopia, evidence regarding the time to DN and its predictors are not well document in Ethiopia. Therefore, the current study aimed to determine time to DN and its predictors among newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes patients (T2DM) in North West Ethiopia.

Methods

Institutional based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 463 T2DM. Cox proportional hazard model was fitted to identify predictors of time to DN. The adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) with its 95% confidence interval was used to declare the presence and strength of association.

Results

From a total 463 study participants, 77 (16.63%), (95% CI 13.23%, 20.03%) had developed diabetic neuropathy. The median time to develop DN was 233.77 months. About 40 (51.95%) diabetic neuropathy cases occurred within 6 years of diagnosis of diabetic mellitus. The incidence density was 2.01/100 PY with 95% CI of [1.60, 2.53]. In the multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis; being aged 65–69 [AHR = 2.78; 95% CI 1.20, 6.46], living with diabetes for less than 4 years [AHR = 3.77; 95% CI 1.82, 7.76], having anaemia [AHR = 3.82; 95% CI 1.66, 8.82] and having other complications [AHR = 1.68; 95% CI 1.03, 2.76 were significant predictors of DN.

Conclusion

More than half of diabetic neuropathy cases occurred within a short period of diagnosed with T2DM. Significant predictors for the time to DN were age, duration, having anaemia and other DM complication. Therefore, we recommend that early screening for DM and its complication for risky groups. While doing that due consideration should be assumed for old and anemic patients.

Preterm birth and its associated factors among reproductive aged women in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from the recent demographic and health surveys of sub-Sharan African countries

BACKGROUND

Globally, preterm birth is the leading cause of neonatal and under-five children mortality. Sub-Saharan African (SSA) accounts for the majority of preterm birth and death following its complications. Despite this, there is limited evidence about the pooled prevalence and associated factors of preterm birth at SSA level using nation-wide representative large dataset. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the pooled prevalence and associated factors of preterm birth among reproductive aged women.

METHODS

The recent Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs) data of 36 SSA countries were used. We included a total weighted sample of 172,774 reproductive-aged women who were giving birth within five years preceding the most recent survey of SSA countries were included in the analysis. We used a multilevel logistic regression model to identify the associated factors of preterm birth in SSA. We considered a statistical significance at a p-value less than 0.05.

RESULTS

In this study, 5.33% (95% CI: 5.23, 5.44%) of respondents in SSA had delivered preterm baby. Being form eastern Africa, southern Africa, rural area, being educated, substance use, having multiple pregnancy, currently working history, having history of terminated pregnancy, and previous cesarean section delivery, primi-parity, and short birth interval were associated with higher odds of preterm birth among reproductive aged women. However, having better wealth index, being married, wanted pregnancy, and having four or more antenatal care visit were associated with lower odds for a preterm birth among reproductive aged women.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of preterm birth among reproductive-aged women remains a major public health problem in SSA. Preterm birth was affected by various socio-economic and obstetrical factors. Therefore, it is better to consider the high-risk groups during intervention to prevent the short-term and long-term consequences of preterm birth.

Incidence and predictors of under-five mortality in East Africa using multilevel Weibull regression modeling

BACKGROUND

In 2017, an estimated 5.3 million under-five children died annually in Sub-Saharan African countries, more than half of those deaths occurred in East Africa. Though East African countries share the huge burden of global under-five mortality, there is limited evidence on the incidence and predictors of under-five mortality. Therefore, this study investigated the incidence and predictors of under-five mortality in East Africa.

METHODS

A community-based cross-sectional study was done based on the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data of 12 East African countries conducted from 2008 to 2019. A total weighted sample of 138,803 live births within 5 years preceding the survey were included for analysis. The Kaplan-Meier curve and Log-rank test were done to assess the children's survival experience across variable categories. The Global Schoenfeld residual test was employed for checking Proportional Hazard (PH) assumptions and it was violated (p-value< 0.05). Considering the hierarchical nature of DHS data, multilevel parametric survival models were fitted. Model comparison was made by AIC, deviance, and shape of the hazard function. Variables with a p-value of less than 0.2 in the bi-variable analysis were considered for the multivariable analysis. In the multilevel Weibull regression analysis, the Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was reported to declare the significant predictors of under-five mortality.

RESULTS

Under-five mortality rate in East Africa was 51.318 (95% CI: 51.311, 51.323) per 1000 live births. Babies born to mothers attained secondary education and above (AHR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.75, 0.91), being 2nd - 4th birth order (AHR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.67), ≥ 5th birth order (AHR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.61, 0.76), health facility delivery (AHR = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.82, 0.93), 1-3 ANC visit (AHR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.54, 0.68), births interval of 24-48 months (AHR = 0.53, 95% CI: 0.50, 0.57), wanted pregnancy (AHR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.68, 0.76), middle wealth status (AHR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.83, 0.97), and richest wealth status (AHR = 0.81, 95% CI:0.73, 0.90) were significantly associated with lower hazards of under-five mortality. Whereas, advanced maternal age (≥35 years) (AHR = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.24),, babies born to household who did not have media exposure (AHR = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.20), twin births (AHR = 3.81, 95% CI: 3.52, 4.12), being male child (AHR = 1.27, 95%CI: 1.21, 1.33), small birth size at birth (AHR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.63, 1.84), and large size at birth (AHR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.11) were significantly associated with higher hazards of under-five mortality.

CONCLUSION

Under-five mortality is a major public health concern in East African countries. Health facility delivery, ANC visit, higher wealth status, adequate birth spacing, wanted pregnancy, and maternal education were significantly correlated with a lower risk of under-5 mortality. Whereas, higher birth order, small or large size at birth, male birth, twin birth, advanced maternal age and mothers who didn't have media exposure were significantly correlated with a higher risk of under-five mortality. This study highlights that public health programs should enhance health facility delivery, ANC visit, media exposure, maternal education, and adequate birth spacing to decrease the incidence of under-five mortality in East Africa.

Geographic weighted regression analysis of hot spots of anemia and its associated factors among children aged 6-59 months in Ethiopia: A geographic weighted regression analysis and multilevel robust Poisson regression analysis

INTRODUCTION

Anemia among children aged 6-59 months remains a major public health problem in low-and high-income countries including Ethiopia. Anemia is associated with significant consequences on the health of children such as under-five morbidity and mortality, increased risk of infection, and poor academic performance. The prevalence of anemia in Ethiopia has varied across areas. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the geographic weighted regression analysis of anemia and its associated factors among children aged 6-59 months in Ethiopia.

METHODS

This study was based on the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) data. A total weighted sample of 8482 children aged 6-59 months was included. For the spatial analysis, Arc-GIS version 10.7 and SaTScan version 9.6 statistical software were used. Spatial regression was done to identify factors associated with the hotspots of anemia and model comparison was based on adjusted R2 and Corrected Akaike Information Criteria (AICc). For the associated factors, the multilevel robust Poisson regression was fitted since the prevalence of anemia was greater than 10%. Variables with a p-value < 0.2 in the bi-variable analysis were considered for the multivariable analysis. In the multivariable multilevel robust Poisson regression analysis, the adjusted prevalence ratio with the 95% confidence interval was reported to declare the statistical significance and strength of association.

RESULTS

The prevalence of anemia among children aged 6-59 months was 57.56% (95%CI: 56.50%, 58.61%) with significant spatial variation across regions in Ethiopia. The significant hot spot areas of anemia among children aged 6-59 months were detected in the central, west, and east Afar, Somali, Dire Dawa, Harari, and northwest Gambella regions. Mothers who had anemia, a child aged 23-59 months, mothers aged 15-19 years, and coming from a household with a poorer or poorest household were significant predictors of the spatial variations of anemia among children aged 6-59 months. In the multilevel robust Poisson analysis, born to mothers aged 30-39 (APR = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.76, 0.92) and 40-49 years (APR = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.65, 0.83), mothers who didn't have formal education (APR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.20), Children in the poorest household wealth index (APR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.29), being 4-6 (APR = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.13) and above 6 order of birth (APR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.23), children born to anemic mothers (APR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.19, 1.29), children aged 24-59 months (APR = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.68, 0.73), stunted children (APR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.13) and underweight children (APR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.13) were significantly associated with anemia among children aged 6-59 months.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

Anemia is still a public health problem for children in Ethiopia. Residing in a geographic area where a high proportion of children born to mothers aged 15-19 years, a child aged 6-23 months, coming from a household with poorer or poorest wealth index, and mothers with anemia increased the risk of experiencing anemia among children aged 6-59 months. Maternal education, maternal age, child age, household wealth, stunting, underweight, birth order, and maternal anemia were significant predictors of anemia among children. The detailed map of anemia hot spots among children aged 6-59 months and its predictors could assist program planners and decision-makers to design targeted public health interventions.

Multi-Level Analysis and Spatial Interpolation of Distributions and Predictors of Childhood Diarrhea in Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Diarrhea is one of the health problems contributing to Nigeria's under-5 mortality rate, ranked as the eighth highest globally. As our search is concerned, there is limited evidence on the spatial distribution of childhood diarrhea in Nigeria. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the spatial distribution and predictors of diarrhea among under-5 children in Nigeria.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using data from the child's recode file of the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey, a sample of 28 583 children of women of reproductive age was considered as the sample size for this study. The outcome variable used in this study was childhood diarrhea. We employed both multilevel and spatial analyses to ascertain the factors associated with childhood diarrhea as well as its spatial clustering.

RESULTS

The regional distribution of the prevalence of diarrhea among children in Nigeria ranged from 0% to 62%. The hotspots for childhood diarrhea were in Yobe, Bauchi, Gombe, Kano, Sokoto, Imo, and Taraba. The likelihood of a child having diarrhea in Nigeria was higher among women whose partners have secondary education and above [aOR = 1.18; 95%CI = 1.05-1.33], women currently working [aOR = 1.24; 95%CI = 1.13-1.35], women practicing Islam [aOR = 1.24; 95%CI = 1.04-1.46], and women who were exposed to mass media [aOR = 1.29; 95%CI = 1.18-1.42], compared to women whose partners had no formal education, women not currently working, women practicing Christianity, and those who were not exposed to mass media. Children born to mothers who reside in North East [aOR = 2.55; 95%CI = 2.10-3.10], and communities with medium socioeconomic status [aOR = 1.44; 95%CI = 1.09-1.91] were more likely to experience diarrhea compared to those born to mothers residing in the North Central and in communities with low socioeconomic status.

CONCLUSION

High proportions of childhood diarrhea among under-5 children in Nigeria were located in Yobe, Bauchi, Gombe, Kano, Sokoto, Imo, and Taraba. Policies and interventions that seek to reduce or eliminate diarrhea diseases among under-5 children in Nigeria should take a keen interest in the factors identified as predictors of childhood diarrhea in this study as this will help in achieving the aims of WASH, ORT corners, and SDG 3 by the year 2030.

Spatial Patterns and Multilevel Analysis of Factors Associated with Antenatal Care Visits in Nigeria: Insight from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic Health Survey

Despite global progress towards antenatal care (ANC) uptake, ANC utilization in a number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa, such as Nigeria, is low. Although several studies have identified the determinants and factors associated with ANC services utilization in Nigeria, there is a gap in knowledge about the spatial patterns in ANC use. Therefore, this study aims to map the spatial distribution and factors associated with ANC visits in Nigeria. A cross-sectional dataset was obtained from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. A total of 20,003 women aged 15-49 were considered in this study. Both spatial and multilevel analyses were carried out. The results were presented in spatial maps and adjusted odds ratios (aOR) at a 95% confidence interval (CI). Hot spot areas (high proportion of an incomplete ANC visit) were located in Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Jigawa, Bauchi, Niger, Borno, Gombe, and Bayelsa. Regional disparities in incomplete ANC visits were found in this study. Maternal age, maternal education, partner's level of education, working status, ethnicity, parity, religion, exposure to media, place of residence, wealth index, region, and community literacy level were factors associated with incomplete ANC. There is a need to consider these factors in the design and strengthening of existing interventions (e.g., mini-clinics) aimed at increasing ANC visits to help attain maternal health-related Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. The regional disparities in incomplete ANC visits also need to be considered by encouraging pregnant women in hotspot areas to attend ANC visits.

Prelacteal feeding practice and its associated factors among mothers having children less than 2 years of age in East Africa: a multilevel analysis of the recent demographic and health surveys

Background

Prelacteal feeding is a major public health problem that increases the risk of morbidity and mortality in children. It also result delayed breastfeeding initiation and interferes with exclusive breastfeeding. Although numerous studies have been done on prelacteal feeding in individual East African countries, most of them did not consider community-level factors that could affect the likelihood of prelacteal feeding. This study, thus, aimed to assess the pooled prevalence and associated factors of prelacteal feeding practice in East Africa.

Methods

We used pooled data from the 12 east Africa countries Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). A total weighted sample of 33,423 women was included in the final analysis. We employed multilevel logistic regression analysis to assess factors associated with prelacteal feeding practice. Finally, the Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with 95% Confidence (CI) interval was reported and variables with p value< 0.05, in the multivariable analysis, were declared to be significant predictors of prelacteal feeding practice.

Result

In this study, the pooled prevalence of prelacteal feeding practice was 11.85% (95%CI: 11.50, 12.20) with great variation between countries, ranging from 3.08% (95%CI: 2.35, 3.81) in Malawi to 39.21% (95%CI: 36.36, 42.06) in Comoros. Both individual and community-level factors were associated with prelacteal feeding practice. Of the individual-level factors, home delivery, multiple birth, cesarean delivery, non-exposure to media, delayed initiation of breastfeeding, and being a small-sized baby were associated with higher odds of prelacteal feeding practice. Among the community-level factors, rural residence and higher community-level of media exposure were associated with lower odds of prelacteal feeding practice.

Conclusion

In this study, the pooled prevalence of prelacteal feeding is high. Both individual and community level variables were associated with prelacteal feeding practice. Therefore, individual and community-level interventions that encourage mothers to deliver in the health facility and promoting timely initiation of breastfeeding are needed to reduce prelacteal feeding practices in east Africa. Moreover, media campaigns regarding this harmful traditional practice could be strengthened.

Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.

METHODS

We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.

FINDINGS

Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier.

INTERPRETATION

Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Spatiotemporal distribution and determinants of delayed first antenatal care visit among reproductive age women in Ethiopia: a spatial and multilevel analysis

Background

Antenatal care (ANC) is one of the four pillars of the initiative for safe motherhood. ANC helps to improve the health of pregnant women and reduce the risk of adverse pregnancy outcome. First ANC is used to know the health status of the mothers and the fetus, to estimate the gestational age and expected date of delivery. Our research aims to investigate the Spatio-temporal distribution of delayed first ANC visit and its predictors using multilevel binary logistic regression analysis.

Method

A total of 10,184 women (2061 in 2005, 3366 in 2011, and 4757 in 2016) were included for this study. The data were cleaned and weighted using STATA version 14. A multilevel binary logistic regression model was fitted to identify significant predictors of delayed first ANC visit. ArcGIS software was used to explore the spatial distribution of delayed first ANC visits and a Bernoulli model was fitted using SaTScan software to identify significant clusters of delayed first ANC visits.

Results

Overall, 77.69, 73.95, and 67.61% of women had delayed their first ANC visit in 2005, 2011, and 2016 EDHSs respectively. Women education [AOR = 0.71; 95%CI; 0.60, 0.84], unwanted pregnancy [AOR = 1.41;95%CI; 1.04, 1.89], and rural residence [AOR = 1.68;95%CI; 1.19, 2.38] have significantly associated with delayed first ANC visit. The spatial analysis revealed that delayed first ANC visit varies in each EDHS period. The SaTScan analysis result of EDHS 2005 data identified 122 primary clusters located between the border of Oromia and Eastern SNNPR regions (RR = 1.30, LLR = 32.31, P-value< 0.001), whereas in 2011 EDHS, 145 primary clusters were identified in entire Tigray, B/Gumuz, Amhara western part of Afar and northwest Oromia regions (RR = 1.30, LLR = 40.79, P-value< 0.001). Besides in 2016 EDHS,198 primary clusters were located in the entire SNNPR, Gambella, Northen B/Gumuz, and western Oromia regions. (RR = 1.35, LLR = 83.21, P-value< 0.001).

Conclusion

In Ethiopia delayed first ANC visit was significantly varied across the country over time Women’s education, wanted the last child, and residence were significantly associated with delayed first ANC booking. The effect of each predictor was found to be different across regions of Ethiopia. Therefore, a targeted intervention program is required in highly affected areas of Ethiopia.

Determinants of maternal high-risk fertility behaviors and its correlation with child stunting and anemia in the East Africa region: A pooled analysis of nine East African countries

Background

In low-income nations, high-risk fertility behavior is a prevalent public health concern that can be ascribed to unmet family planning needs, child marriage, and a weak health system. As a result, this study aimed to determine the factors that influence high-risk fertility behavior and its impact on child stunting and anemia.

Method

This study relied on secondary data sources from recent demography and health surveys of nine east African countries. Relevant data were extracted from Kids Record (KR) files and appended for the final analysis; 31,873 mother-child pairs were included in the final analysis. The mixed-effect logistic regression model (fixed and random effects) was used to describe the determinants of high-risk fertility behavior (HRFB) and its correlation with child stunting and anemia.

Result

According to the pooled study about 57.6% (95% CI: 57.7 to 58.2) of women had at least one high-risk fertility behavior, with major disparities found across countries and women’s residences. Women who lived in rural areas, had healthcare access challenges, had a history of abortion, lived in better socio-economic conditions, and had antenatal care follow-up were more likely to engage in high-risk fertility practices. Consequently, Young maternal age at first birth (<18), narrow birth intervals, and high birth orders were HRFBs associated with an increased occurrences of child stunting and anemia.

Conclusion

This study revealed that the magnitude of high-risk fertility behavior was higher in east Africa region. The finding of this study underscores that interventions focused on health education and behavioral change of women, and improvement of maternal healthcare access would be helpful to avert risky fertility behaviors. In brief, encouraging contraceptive utilization and creating awareness about birth spacing among reproductive-age women would be more helpful. Meanwhile, frequent nutritional screening and early intervention of children born from women who had high-risk fertility characteristics are mandatory to reduce the burden of chronic malnutrition.

Knowledge about mother to child transmission of HIV/AIDS, its prevention and associated factors among reproductive-age women in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from 33 countries recent Demographic and Health Surveys

BACKGROUND

In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) 90 percent of babies acquired HIV/AIDS from infected mothers. Maternal knowledge about mother to child transmission (MTCT) of HIV/AIDS and its prevention is a cornerstone for elimination of MTCT of HIV/AIDS. Despite this, there is limited evidence about knowledge about MTCT of HIV/AIDS and its prevention and associated factors in SSA. Therefore, this study aimed to assess knowledge of MTCT of HIV/AIDS, its prevention (PMTCT) and, associated factors among reproductive-age women in sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVE

To assess Knowledge about mother to child transmission of HIV/AIDS and its prevention and associated factors among reproductive-age women in Sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

The recent SSA countries' Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), which were conducted from 2008/09 to 2018/19, was our data source. We appended 33 countries' DHS data for our analysis. For our study, a total weighted sample of 350,888 reproductive-age women was used. Due to the hierarchical nature of the DHS data, we conducted a multilevel analysis. Finally, the adjusted odds ratio with its 95% confidence interval was reported, and variables with p-value≤0.05 were considered as significant predictors of knowledge of MTCT of HIV/AIDS and its prevention.

RESULTS

In this study, 56.21% (95% CI: 56.05-56.38) of respondents had correct knowledge about MTCT of HIV/AIDS and its prevention among reproductive-age women in SSA. In the multilevel logistic regression analysis: being in the older age group, better education level, being from a rich household, having mass media exposure, having parity of one and above were associated with higher odds of knowledge about MTCT of HIV/AIDS and its prevention. However, being perceiving distance from the health facility as a big problem was associated with lower odds of knowledge about MTCT of HIV/AIDS and its prevention.

CONCLUSION

Knowledge about MTCT of HIV/AIDS and its prevention among reproductive-age women in SSA was low. Therefore, it is better to consider the high-risk groups during the intervention to increase awareness about this essential public health issue and to tackle its devastating outcome.

Determinants of adverse birth outcome in Sub-Saharan Africa: analysis of recent demographic and health surveys

Background

More than 75% of neonatal deaths occurred in the first weeks of life as a result of adverse birth outcomes. Low birth weight, preterm births are associated with a variety of acute and long-term complications. In Sub-Saharan Africa, there is insufficient evidence of adverse birth outcomes. Hence, this study aimed to determine the pooled prevalence and determinants of adverse birth outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Method

Data of this study were obtained from a cross-sectional survey of the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) of ten Sub-African (SSA) countries. A total of 76,853 children born five years preceding the survey were included in the final analysis. A Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) were fitted and an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with a 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was computed to declare statistically significant determinants of adverse birth outcomes.

Result

The pooled prevalence of adverse birth outcomes were 29.7% (95% CI: 29.4 to 30.03). Female child (AOR = 0.94, 95%CI: 0.91 0.97), women attended secondary level of education (AOR = 0.87, 95%CI: 0.82 0.92), middle (AOR = 0.94,95%CI: 0.90 0.98) and rich socioeconomic status (AOR = 0.94, 95%CI: 0.90 0.99), intimate-partner physical violence (beating) (AOR = 1.18, 95%CI: 1.14 1.22), big problems of long-distance travel (AOR = 1.08, 95%CI: 1.04 1.11), antenatal care follow-ups (AOR = 0.86, 95%CI: 0.83 0.86), multiparty (AOR = 0.88, 95%CI: 0.84 0.91), twin births (AOR = 2.89, 95%CI: 2.67 3.14), and lack of women involvement in healthcare decision-making process (AOR = 1.10, 95%CI: 1.06 1.13) were determinants of adverse birth outcomes.

Conclusion

This study showed that the magnitude of adverse birth outcomes was high, abnormal baby size and preterm births were the most common adverse birth outcomes. This finding suggests that encouraging antenatal care follow-ups and socio-economic conditions of women are essential. Moreover, special attention should be given to multiple pregnancies, improving healthcare accessibilities to rural areas, and women’s involvement in healthcare decision-making.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11113-z.

Prevalence of stillbirth and its associated factors in East Africa: generalized linear mixed modeling

BACKGROUND

Stillbirth is the most frequently reported adverse pregnancy outcome worldwide, which imposes significant psychological and economic consequences to mothers and affected families. East African countries account for one-third of the 2.6 million stillbirths globally. Though stillbirth is a common public health problem in East African countries, there is limited evidence on the pooled prevalence and associated factors of stillbirth in East Africa. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the prevalence of stillbirth and its associated factors in East Africa.

METHODS

This study was based on the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs) of 12 East African countries. A total weighted sample of 138,800 reproductive-age women who gave birth during the study period were included in this study. The prevalence of stillbirth with the 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was reported using a forest plot. A mixed-effect binary logistic regression analysis was done to identify significantly associated factors of stillbirth. Since the DHS data has hierarchical nature, the presence of clustering effect was assessed using the Likelihood Ratio (LR) test, and Intra-cluster Correlation Coefficient (ICC), and deviance were used for model comparison. Variables with a p-value of less than 0.2 in the bi-variable analysis were considered for the multivariable analysis. In the multivariable mixed-effect binary logistic regression analysis, the Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) with 95% CI were reported to declare the strength and significance of the association.

RESULTS

The prevalence of stillbirth in East Africa was 0.86% (95% CI: 0.82, 0.91) ranged from 0.39% in Kenya to 2.28% in Burundi. In the mixed-effect analysis; country, women aged 25-34 years (AOR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.11, 1.45), women aged ≥ 35 years (AOR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.44), poor household wealth (AOR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.23), women who didn't have media exposure (AOR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.25), divorced/widowed/separated marital status (AOR = 2.99, 95% CI: 2.04, 4.39), caesarean delivery (AOR = 1.81, 95% CI: 1.52, 2.15), preceding birth interval < 24 months (AOR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.24), women attained secondary education or above (AOR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.81) and preceding birth interval ≥ 49 months (AOR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.28, 1.65) were significantly associated with stillbirth.

CONCLUSIONS

Stillbirth remains a major public health problem in East Africa, which varied significantly across countries. These findings highlight the weak health care system of East African countries. Preceding birth interval, county, maternal education media exposure, household wealth status, marital status, and mode of delivery were significantly associated with stillbirth. Therefore, public health programs enhancing maternal education, media access, and optimizing birth spacing should be designed to reduce the incidence of stillbirth.

Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-18: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000-18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit.

FINDINGS

The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1-3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4-1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7-0·9) in Mauritania to 676·5 (513·6-888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV incidence (4661·7 [2544·8-8120·3]) cases per 100 000 people in 2018 and Inhassunge District, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV mortality rate (1163·0 [679·0-1866·8]) deaths per 100 000 people. Further, the rate of reduction in HIV incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018, as well as the ratio of new infections to the number of people living with HIV was highly variable. Although most second-level administrative units had declines in the number of new cases (3316 [81·1%] of 4087 units) and number of deaths (3325 [81·4%]), nearly all appeared well short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths between 2010 and 2020.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates suggest that most second-level administrative units in sub-Saharan Africa are falling short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths by 2020, which is further compounded by substantial within-country variability. These estimates will help decision makers and programme implementers expand access to ART and better target health resources to higher burden subnational areas.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Individual and community level factors associated with use of iodized salt in sub-Saharan Africa: A multilevel analysis of demographic health surveys

Introduction

Iodine deficiency disorder a common problem in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It affects not only the health of the affected individual but also the economic development of the country. However, to the best of our knowledge, there is a scarcity in literature about the associated factors of iodized salt utilization in sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, this study aimed to identify both individual and community level determinants of iodized salt utilization in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

This study used the appended datasets of the most recent demographic and health survey from 31 sub-Saharan countries. A total weighted sample of 391,463 households was included in the study. Both bivariable and multivariable multilevel logistic regression were done to determine the associated factors of iodized salt utilization in SSA. P value ≤ 0.05 was used to declare statistically significant variables.

Results

Those households with primary (AOR  =  1.53, 95% CI  =  1.50–1.57), secondary (AOR  = 1.81, 95% CI  =  1.76–1.86) and higher education level (AOR  =  2.28, 95% CI  =  2.17–2.40) had higher odds of iodized salt utilization. Households with middle (AOR  =  1.05, 95% CI  =  1.02–1.08), richer (AOR  = 1.13, 95% CI  =  1.09–1.17) and richest wealth index (AOR  =  1.23, 95% CI  =  1.18–1.28) also had an increased chance of using iodized salt. Households from high community media exposure (AOR  =  2.07, 95% CI  =  1.71–2.51), high community education level (AOR  =  3.78, 95% CI  =  3.14–4.56), and low community poverty level (AOR = 1.29, CI  =  1.07–1.56) had higher odds of using salt containing iodine.

Conclusion

Both individual and community level factors were found to be associated with use of salt containing iodine in sub-Saharan Africa. Education level, media exposure, community poverty level, wealth index, community education, and community media exposure were found to be associated with use of salt containing iodine in SSA. Therefore, to improve the use of iodized salt in the region, there is a need to increase access to media sources and develop the socioeconomic status of the community.