[Elucidating the Impacts of Meteorology and Emission Changes on Concentrations of Major Air Pollutants in Major Cities in the Yangtze River Delta Region Using a Machine Learning De-weather Method]

This study applied a de-weather method based on a machine learning technique to quantify the contribution of meteorology and emission changes to air quality from 2015 to 2021 in four cities in the Yangtze River Delta Region. The results showed that the significant reductions in PM2.5, NO2, and SO2 emissions(57.2%-68.2%, 80.7%-94.6%, and 81.6%-96.1%, respectively) offset the adverse effects of meteorological conditions, resulting in lower pollutant concentrations. The meteorological contribution of maximum daily 8-h average O3(MDA8_O3) showed a stronger effect than that of others(23.5%-42.1%), and meteorological factors promoted the increase in MDA8_O3 concentrations(4.7%); however, emission changes overall resulted in a decrease in MDA8_O3 concentrations(-3.2%). NO2 and MDA8_O3 decreased more rapidly from 2019 to 2021, mainly because the emissions played a stronger role in reducing pollutant concentrations than from 2015 to 2018. However, emissions changes had weaker reduction effects on PM2.5 and SO2 from 2019 to 2021 than from 2015 to 2018. De-weather methods could effectively seperate the effects of meteorology and emission changes on pollutant trends, which helps to evaluate the real effects of emission control policies on pollutant concentrations.

44-year temporal trends and causes of maternal mortality at the Lagos University Teaching Hospital, LUTH, Lagos, Nigeria (1976-2019)

Background

Nigeria has committed to global initiatives aimed at improving maternal and child health. Institutional audit of maternal mortality over a long period can provide useful information on the trends in maternal death and the impact of interventions.

Aim

To evaluate the trends in annual deliveries, maternal mortality ratio and causes of maternal death at a tertiary institution in Nigeria over a period of 44 years (1976-2019).

Materials and Methods

We conducted a temporal trend analysis of annual births, maternal deaths, maternal mortality ratio (MMR), and ranking of causes of maternal deaths at a Teaching Hospital, in Southwest Nigeria using available data from 1976 to 2019. Overall and segmental annual percent change (APC) of the observed trends were conducted using Joinpoint version 4.5.0.1 software.

Results

Over the 44-year study period, 1323 maternal deaths occurred at approximately 30 maternal deaths per annum. There was a four-fold increase in MMR from 881/100,000 total births in 1976 to 3389.8/100,000 total births in 2019, at an average increase of 3.1% per annum. (APC: 3.1%; P value < 0.001). The leading causes of maternal mortality were hypertension, sepsis, haemorrhage, and abortion, which together contributed to more than 70% of maternal deaths. All the leading causes of maternal deaths except abortion had constant ranking during the study period.

Conclusion

The four-fold increase in MMR at our hospital from 1976-2019 is worrying and may suggest that previous efforts at reducing maternal mortality in our institution did not lead to significant improvement toward the attainment of Sustainable Development Goal 3 (SDG3). The hospital increasingly managed complex cases especially the unbooked patients who were referred to the hospital as a last resort.

Overabundant deer and invasive plants drive widespread regeneration debt in eastern United States national parks

Advanced regeneration, in the form of tree seedlings and saplings, is critical for ensuring the long-term viability and resilience of forest ecosystems in the eastern United States. Lack of regeneration and/or compositional mismatch between regeneration and canopy layers, called regeneration debt, can lead to shifts in forest composition, structure, and, in extreme cases, forest loss. In this study, we examined status and trends in regeneration across 39 national parks from Virginia to Maine, spanning 12 years to apply the regeneration debt concept. We further refined the concept by adding new metrics and classifying results into easily interpreted categories adapted from the literature: imminent failure, probable failure, insecure, and secure. We then used model selection to determine the potential drivers most influencing patterns of regeneration debt. Status and trends indicated widespread regeneration debt in eastern national parks, with 27 of 39 parks classified as imminent or probable failure. Deer browse impact was consistently the strongest predictor of regeneration abundance. The most pervasive component of regeneration debt observed across parks was a sapling bottleneck, characterized by critically low sapling density of native canopy species and significant declines in native canopy sapling basal area or density for most parks. Regeneration mismatches also threaten forest resilience in many parks, where native canopy seedlings and saplings were outnumbered by native subcanopy species, particularly species that are less palatable deer browse. The devastating impact of emerald ash borer eliminating ash as a native canopy tree also drove regeneration mismatches in many parks that contain abundant ash regeneration, demonstrating the vulnerability of forests that lack diverse understories to invasive pests and pathogens. These findings underscore the critical importance of an integrated forest management approach that promotes an abundant and diverse regeneration layer. In most cases, this can only be achieved through long-term (i.e., multidecadal) management of white-tailed deer and invasive plants. Small-scale disturbances that increase structural complexity may also promote regeneration where stress from deer and invasive plants is minimal. Without immediate and sustained management intervention, the forest loss we are already observing may become a widespread pattern in eastern national parks and the broader region.

Temporal Trends in Variability of Respirable Dust and Respirable Quartz Concentrations in the European Industrial Minerals Sector

While between- and within-worker variability have been studied quite extensively, hardly any research is available that examines long-term trends in the variability of occupational exposure. In this first study on trends in occupational exposure variability temporal changes in the variability of respirable dust and respirable quartz concentrations within the European industrial minerals sector were demonstrated. Since 2000 the European Industrial Minerals Association's Dust Monitoring Program (IMA-DMP) has systematically collected respirable dust and respirable quartz measurements. The resulting IMA-DMP occupational exposure database contains at present approximately 40 000 personal full-shift measurements, collected at 177 sites owned by 39 companies, located in 23 European countries. Repeated measurements of workers performing their duties within a specific site-job-campaign combination allowed estimation of within- and between-worker variability in exposure concentrations. Overall day-to-day variability predominated the between-worker variability for both respirable dust concentrations and quartz concentrations. The within-worker variability in concentrations by job was two to three times higher for respirable quartz than for respirable dust. The median between-worker variability in respirable dust concentrations was low and further reduced over time. For quartz concentrations the same phenomenon albeit somewhat less strong was observed. In contrast, for the within-worker variability in concentrations downward and upward temporal trends were apparent for both respirable dust and respirable quartz. The study shows that the (relative) size of temporal variability is large and unpredictable and therefore regular measurement campaigns are needed to ascertain compliance to occupational exposure limit values.

Changing Patterns in Cancer Mortality from 1987 to 2020 in China

BACKGROUND

China has the highest number of new cancer cases and deaths worldwide, posing huge health and economic burdens to society and affected families. This study comprehensively analyzed secular trends of national cancer mortality statistics to inform future prevention and intervention programs in China.

METHODS

The annual estimate of overall cancer mortality and its major subtypes were derived from the National Health Commission (NHC). Joinpoint analysis was used to detect changes in trends, and we used age-period-cohort modeling to estimate cohort and period effects in Cancers between 1987 and 2020. Net drift (overall annual percentage change), local drift (annual percentage change in each age group), longitudinal age curves (expected longitudinal age-specific rate), and period (cohort) relative risks were calculated.

RESULTS

The age-standardized cancer mortality in urban China has shown a steady downward trend but has not decreased significantly in rural areas. Almost all cancer deaths in urban areas have shown a downward trend, except for colorectal cancer in men. Decreasing mortality from cancers in rural of the stomach, esophagus, liver, leukemia, and nasopharynx was observed, while lung, colorectal cancer female breast, and cervical cancer mortality increased. Birth cohort risks peaked in the cohorts born around 1920-1930 and tended to decline in successive cohorts for most cancers except for leukemia, lung cancer in rural, and breast and cervical cancer in females, whose relative risks were rising in the very recent cohorts. In addition, mortality rates for almost all types of cancer in older Chinese show an upward trend.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the age-standardized overall cancer mortality rate has declined, and the urban-rural gap narrowed, the absolute cancer cases kept increasing due to the growing elderly population in China. The rising mortality related to lung, colorectal, female breast, and cervical cancer should receive higher priority in managing cancer burden and calls for targeted public health actions to reverse the trend.

Understanding long-term trends in smoking in England, 1972-2019: an age-period-cohort approach

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Smoking prevalence has been falling in England for more than 50 years, but remains a prevalent and major public health problem. This study used an age-period-cohort (APC) approach to measure lifecycle, historical and generational patterns of individual smoking behaviour.

DESIGN

APC analysis of repeated cross-sectional smoking prevalence data obtained from three nationally representative surveys.

SETTING

England (1972-2019).

PARTICIPANTS

Individuals aged 18-90 years.

MEASUREMENTS

We studied relative odds of current smoking in relation to age in single years from 18 to 90, 24 groups of 2-year survey periods (1972-73 to 2018-19) and 20 groups of 5-year birth cohorts (1907-11 to 1997-2001). Age and period rates were studied for two groups of birth cohorts: those aged 18-25 years and those aged over 25 years.

FINDINGS

Relative to age 18, the odds of current smoking increased with age until approximately age 25 [odds ratio (OR) = 1.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.41-1.56] and then decreased progressively to age 90 (OR = 0.06, 95% CI = 0.04-0.08). They also decreased almost linearly with period relative to 1972-73 (for 2018-19: OR = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.26-0.34) and with birth cohort relative to 1902-06, with the largest decreased observed for birth cohort 1992-96 (OR = 0.44, 95% CI = 0.35-0.46) and 1997-2001 (OR = 0.35, 95% CI = 0.74-0.88). Smoking declined in the 18-25 age group by an average of 7% over successive 2-year periods and by an average of 5% in those aged over 25.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking in England appears to have declined over recent decades mainly as a result of reduced smoking uptake before age 25, and to a lesser extent to smoking cessation after age 25.

Phenological sensitivity and seasonal variability explain climate-driven trends in Mediterranean butterflies

Although climate-driven phenological shifts have been documented for many taxa across the globe, we still lack knowledge of the consequences they have on populations. Here, we used a comprehensive database comprising 553 populations of 51 species of north-western Mediterranean butterflies to investigate the relationship between phenology and population trends in a 26-year period. Phenological trends and sensitivity to climate, along with various species traits, were used to predict abundance trends. Key ecological traits accounted for a general decline of more than half of the species, most of which, surprisingly, did not change their phenology under a climate warming scenario. However, this was related to the regional cooling in a short temporal window that includes late winter and early spring, during which most species concentrate their development. Finally, we demonstrate that phenological sensitivity—but not phenological trends—predicted population trends, and argue that species that best adjust their phenology to inter-annual climate variability are more likely to maintain a synchronization with trophic resources, thereby mitigating possible negative effects of climate change. Our results reflect the importance of assessing not only species' trends over time but also species’ abilities to respond to a changing climate based on their sensitivity to temperature.

[Long-term Trends and Sources of Atmospheric Halocarbons at Mount Taishan, Northern China]

Halocarbons are hot topics in atmospheric environment and climate change research. Combining observational data from six field campaigns at the summit of Mount Taishan (36.25°N, 117.10°E, 1534 m above sea level) with backward trajectory and receptor source analyses, this study analyzed the long-term trends and major emission sources of halocarbons in the regional background atmosphere of the North China Plain (NCP) from 2003 to 2018. The results showed that the volume fraction of species eliminated by the Montreal Protocol (MP) showed a significant downward trend; however, the MP-controlled and unregulated species showed an overall upward trend. Meanwhile, the median volume fraction of the MP-controlled and unregulated species at Mount Taishan were significantly higher than the mid-latitude median background values in the northern hemisphere. Mount Taishan air was mainly affected by four types of air masses, of which the air mass originating from NCP accounted for the highest proportion (41%). The major sources of halocarbons were biomass/biofuel burning (38.1%), refrigeration (26.2%), industrial and domestic solvent use (21.7%), solvent use in the electronic industry (8.7%), and leakage of chlorofluorocarbon (CFCs) banks (5.3%). This study fully demonstrates that MP has been effectively implemented in China and provides evidence and recommendations to further reduce and control the volume fraction of halocarbons.

Long-term abundance trends of insect taxa are only weakly correlated

Changes in the abundances of animals, such as with the ongoing concern about insect declines, are often assumed to be general across taxa. However, this assumption is largely untested. Here, we used a database of assemblage-wide long-term insect and arachnid monitoring to compare abundance trends among co-occurring pairs of taxa. We show that 60% of co-occurring taxa qualitatively showed long-term trends in the same direction-either both increasing or both decreasing. However, in terms of magnitude, temporal trends were only weakly correlated (mean freshwater r = 0.05 (±0.03), mean terrestrial r = 0.12 (±0.09)). The strongest correlation was between trends of beetles and those of moths/butterflies (r = 0.26). Overall, even though there is some support for directional similarity in temporal trends, we find that changes in the abundance of one taxon provide little information on the changes of other taxa. No clear candidate for umbrella or indicator taxa emerged from our analysis. We conclude that obtaining a better picture of changes in insect abundances will require monitoring of multiple taxa, which remains uncommon, especially in the terrestrial realm.

Shifting stoichiometry: Long-term trends in stream-dissolved organic matter reveal altered C:N ratios due to history of atmospheric acid deposition

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrogen (DON) are important energy and nutrient sources for aquatic ecosystems. In many northern temperate, freshwater systems DOC has increased in the past 50 years. Less is known about how changes in DOC may vary across latitudes, and whether changes in DON track those of DOC. Here, we present long-term DOC and DON data from 74 streams distributed across seven sites in biomes ranging from the tropics to northern boreal forests with varying histories of atmospheric acid deposition. For each stream, we examined the temporal trends of DOC and DON concentrations and DOC:DON molar ratios. While some sites displayed consistent positive or negative trends in stream DOC and DON concentrations, changes in direction or magnitude were inconsistent at regional or local scales. DON trends did not always track those of DOC, though DOC:DON ratios increased over time for ~30% of streams. Our results indicate that the dissolved organic matter (DOM) pool is experiencing fundamental changes due to the recovery from atmospheric acid deposition. Changes in DOC:DON stoichiometry point to a shifting energy-nutrient balance in many aquatic ecosystems. Sustained changes in the character of DOM can have major implications for stream metabolism, biogeochemical processes, food webs, and drinking water quality (including disinfection by-products). Understanding regional and global variation in DOC and DON concentrations is important for developing realistic models and watershed management protocols to effectively target mitigation efforts aimed at bringing DOM flux and nutrient enrichment under control.

A Survivorship-Period-Cohort Model for Cancer Survival: Application to Liver Cancer in Taiwan, 1997-2016

Monitoring survival in cancer is a common concern for patients, physicians, and public health researchers. The traditional cohort approach for monitoring cancer prognosis has a timeliness problem. In this paper, we propose a survivorship-period-cohort (SPC) model for examining the effects of survivorship, period, and year-of-diagnosis cohort on cancer prognosis and for predicting future trends in cancer survival. We used the developed SPC model to evaluate the relative survival (RS) of patients with liver cancer in Taiwan (diagnosed from 1997 to 2016) and to predict future trends in RS by imputing incomplete follow-up data for recently diagnosed patient cohorts. We used cross-validation to select the extrapolation method and bootstrapping to estimate the 95% confidence interval for RS. We found that 5-year cumulative RS increased for both men and women with liver cancer diagnosed after 2003. For patients diagnosed before 2010, the 5-year cumulative RS rate for men was lower than that for women; thereafter, the rates were better for men than for women. The SPC model can help elucidate the effects of survivorship, period, and year-of-diagnosis cohort effects on cancer prognosis. Moreover, the SPC model can be used to monitor cancer prognosis in real time and predict future trends; thus, we recommend its use.

Fluctuating selection driven by global and local climatic conditions leads to stasis in breeding time in a migratory bird

The origin of natural selection is linked to environmental heterogeneity, which influences variation in relative fitness among phenotypes. However, individuals in wild populations are exposed to a plethora of biotic and abiotic environmental factors. Surprisingly, the relative influence of multiple environmental conditions on the relative fitness of phenotypes has rarely been tested in wild populations. Identifying the main selection agent(s) is crucial when the target phenotype is tightly linked to reproduction and when temporal variation in selection is expected to affect evolutionary responses. By using individual-based data from a 29-year study of a short-lived migratory songbird, the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca), we studied the relative influence of 28 temperature- and precipitation-based factors at local and global scales on selection on breeding time (egg laying) at the phenotypic level. Selection, estimated using the number of recruits as a proxy for fitness, penalized late breeders. Minimum temperatures in April and May were the environmental drivers that best explained selection on laying date. In particular, there was negative directional selection on laying date mediated by minimum temperature in April, being strongest in cold years. In addition, nonlinear selection on laying date was influenced by minimum temperatures in May, with selection on laying date changing from null to negative as the breeding season progressed. The intensity of selection on late breeders increased when minimum temperatures in May were highest. Our results illustrate the complex influence of environmental factors on selection on laying date in wild bird populations. Despite minimum temperature in April being the only variable that changed over time, its increase did not induce a shift in laying date in the population. In this songbird population, stabilizing selection has led to a three-decade stasis in breeding time. We suggest that variation in the effects of multiple climatic variables on selection may constrain phenotypic change.

Long-term trends indicate that invasive plants are pervasive and increasing in eastern national parks

While invasive plant distributions are relatively well known in the eastern United States, temporal changes in species distributions and interactions among species have received little attention. Managers are therefore left to make management decisions without knowing which species pose the greatest threats based on their ability to spread, persist and outcompete other invasive species. To fill this gap, we used the U.S. National Park Service's Inventory and Monitoring Program data collected from over 1,400 permanent forest plots spanning 12 yr and covering 39 eastern national parks to analyze invasive plant trends. We analyzed trends in abundance at multiple scales, including plot frequency, quadrat frequency, and average quadrat cover. We examined trends overall, by functional group, and by species. We detected considerably more increasing than decreasing trends in invasive plant abundance. In fact, 80% of the parks in our study had at least one significant increasing trend in invasive abundance over time. Where detected, significant negative trends tended to be herbaceous or graminoid species. However, these declines were often countered by roughly equivalent increases in invasive shrubs over the same time period, and we only detected overall declines in invasive abundance in two parks in our study. Present in over 30% of plots and responsible for the steepest and greatest number of significant increases, Japanese stiltgrass (Microstegium vimineum) was the most aggressive invader in our study and is a high management priority. Invasive shrubs, especially Japanese barberry (Berberis thunbergii), Japanese honeysuckle (Lonicera japonica), multiflora rose (Rosa multiflora), and wineberry (Rubus phoenicolasius), also increased across multiple parks, and sometimes at the expense of Japanese stiltgrass. Given the added risks to human health from tick-borne diseases, invasive shrubs are a high management priority. While these findings provide critical information to managers for species prioritization, they also demonstrate the incredible management challenge that invasive plants pose in protected areas, particularly since we documented few overall declines in invasive abundance. As parks work to overcome deferred maintenance of infrastructure, our findings suggest that deferred management of natural resources, particularly invasive species, requires similar attention and long-term commitment to reverse these widespread increasing invasive trends.

Century-long records reveal shifting challenges to seagrass recovery

Global losses over the 20th century placed seagrass ecosystems among the most threatened ecosystems in the world, with eutrophication, and associated deterioration of the submarine light environment identified as the main driver. Growing appreciation of the ecological and societal benefits of healthy seagrass meadows has stimulated efforts to protect and restore them, largely focused on reducing nutrient input to coastal waters. Here we analyze a unique data set spanning 135 years on eelgrass (Zostera marina), the dominant seagrass of the northern hemisphere. We show that meadows in the Western Baltic Sea exhibited major declines relative to historic (1890-1910) reference due to the wasting disease in the 1930s followed by eutrophication peaking in the 1980s, but have only shown modest improvement despite major eutrophication mitigation, halving nitrogen input since the 1980s. Across the past century, we identified generally shallower colonization depths of eelgrass for a given submarine light penetration and, hence, increased apparent light requirements. This suggests that eelgrass recovery is limited by additional stressors. Our study indicates that bottom trawling and intense recent warming (0.5°C per decade, 1985-2018), which impact on deeper and shallower meadows, respectively, suppress eelgrass from fully recovering from eutrophication. Warming is most severe in shallow turbid waters, while clear-water areas offer eelgrass refugia from warming in deeper, cooler waters; but trawling can prevent eelgrass from reaching these refugia. Efforts to reduce nutrient input and thereby improve water clarity have been instrumental in avoiding a catastrophic loss of eelgrass ecosystems. However, local-scale future management must, in addition, reduce bottom trawling to facilitate eelgrass reaching deeper, cooler refugia, and increase resilience toward realized and further warming. Warming needs to be limited by meeting global climate change mitigation goals.

Intensification of the global water cycle and evidence from ocean salinity: a synthesis review

The ocean plays a dominant role in the global water cycle. It is the center of action for global evaporation and precipitation and supplies the moisture that falls as continental precipitation. It also acts to some extent as nature's rain gauge, as it tells us about the long-term changes in the global water cycle through monitoring of the changes in ocean surface salinity. As climate warms, the global water cycle is expected to intensify as a result of the strong nonlinear dependence of water vapor pressure (moisture-holding capacity) on temperature. Such change is of great concern, as it has profound socioeconomic impacts throughout the globe. Despite the evidence of an intensified global water cycle, two important questions remain: What is the pattern of the warming-induced intensification of the water cycle? and What is the rate of intensification? Our article provides a synthesis review of recent progress in diagnosing and understanding the changes in both the global water cycle and ocean salinity in recent decades. Targeted numerical ocean model experiments are also reviewed to provide insights into the response of salinity to the changes in evaporation-minus-precipitation flux, meltwater runoff, and ocean warming.

How Has the Hazard to Humans of Microorganisms Found in Atmospheric Aerosol in the South of Western Siberia Changed over 10 Years?

One of the most important components of atmospheric aerosols are microorganisms. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the hazard to humans, both from individual microorganisms which are present in atmospheric bioaerosols as well as from their pool. An approach for determining the hazard of bacteria and yeasts found in atmospheric bioaerosols for humans has previously been proposed. The purpose of this paper is to compare our results for 2006-2008 with the results of studies obtained in 2012-2016 to identify changes in the characteristics of bioaerosols occurring over a decade in the south of Western Siberia. Experimental data on the growth, morphological and biochemical properties of bacteria and yeasts were determined for each isolate found in bioaerosol samples. The integral indices of the hazards of bacteria and yeast for humans were constructed for each isolate based on experimentally determined isolate characteristics according to the approach developed by authors in 2008. Data analysis of two datasets showed that hazard to humans of culturable microorganisms in the atmospheric aerosol in the south of Western Siberia has not changed significantly for 10 years (trends are undistinguishable from zero with a confidence level of more than 95%) despite a noticeable decrease in the average annual number of culturable microorganisms per cubic meter (6-10 times for 10 years).

A comparison of trends in wastewater-based data and traditional epidemiological indicators of stimulant consumption in three locations

AIMS

To compare long-term trends in wastewater data with other indicators of stimulant use in three locations and to test the reliability of estimates based on 1 week of sampling.

DESIGN

Comparison of trends in quantities ('loads') of stimulants or their metabolites in wastewater with trends in other indicators of stimulant use (e.g. treatment, police, population survey data).

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Populations in Oslo (Norway), South-East Queensland (Australia) and Eindhoven (the Netherlands).

MEASUREMENTS

Wastewater data were modelled for MDMA (3,4-methyl​enedioxy​methamphetamine), benzoylecgonine (a metabolite of cocaine), amphetamine and methamphetamine in Oslo; benzoylecgonine in Eindhoven; and methamphetamine in South-East Queensland. Choice of stimulants modelled in each region was primarily determined by availability of useable data.

FINDINGS

In Oslo, wastewater data, driving under the influence of drugs statistics and seizure data all suggested increasing MDMA use between 2009 and 2017. In South-East Queensland, there was an estimated 31.1% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 29.4-32.9%] annual increase in daily loads of methamphetamine in wastewater between 2009 and 2016, compared with a 14.1% (95% CI = 10.9-17.3%) annual increase in seizures. Some of the increase in wastewater can be explained by increased purity. In Eindhoven, there was no evidence of a change in cocaine consumption from wastewater, but a reduction was observed in numbers in treatment for cocaine use from 2012 to 2017. In approximately half the cases examined in Oslo, credible intervals around estimates of annual average loads from a regression model versus estimates based on a single week of sampling did not overlap.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term trends in loads of stimulants in wastewater appear to be broadly consistent with trends in other indicators of stimulant use in three locations. Wastewater data should be interpreted alongside epidemiological indicators and purity data. One week of wastewater sampling may not be sufficient for valid inference about drug consumption.

Gradual replacement of wild bees by honeybees in flowers of the Mediterranean Basin over the last 50 years

Evidence for pollinator declines largely originates from mid-latitude regions in North America and Europe. Geographical heterogeneity in pollinator trends combined with geographical biases in pollinator studies can produce distorted extrapolations and limit understanding of pollinator responses to environmental changes. In contrast with the declines experienced in some well-investigated European and North American regions, honeybees seem to have increased recently in some areas of the Mediterranean Basin. Because honeybees can have negative impacts on wild bees, it was hypothesized that a biome-wide alteration in bee pollinator assemblages may be underway in the Mediterranean Basin involving a reduction in the relative number of wild bees. This hypothesis was tested using published quantitative data on bee pollinators of wild and cultivated plants from studies conducted between 1963 and 2017 in 13 countries from the European, African and Asian shores of the Mediterranean Sea. The density of honeybee colonies increased exponentially and wild bees were gradually replaced by honeybees in flowers of wild and cultivated plants. The proportion of wild bees at flowers was four times greater than that of honeybees at the beginning of the period, the proportions of both groups becoming roughly similar 50 years later. The Mediterranean Basin is a world biodiversity hotspot for wild bees and wild bee-pollinated plants, and the ubiquitous rise of honeybees to dominance as pollinators could in the long run undermine the diversity of plants and wild bees in the region.

Self-Reported Illicit Drug Use Among Norwegian University and College Students. Associations With Age, Gender, and Geography

Background and Aims: Several studies have pointed to relatively high levels of illicit drug use among students in higher education compared to the general population. The aim of the present study was to provide an updated examination of self-reported illicit drug use among Norwegian University and college students. Methods: Data stem from the SHoT study (Students' Health and Well-being Study), a nationwide cross-sectional survey for higher education in Norway including Norwegian full-time students aged 18-35. Self-reported illicit drug use across a range of specified drugs comprised the outcome variables. Information on gender, age, and study location (geographical area) was also collected and used as stratification variables. The SHoT-survey from 2018 (N = 50,054) was used for the analyses of associations between demographical variables and illicit drug use, while trends in illicit drug use were estimated by comparing the 2018-results with data from the SHoT-surveys conducted in 2010 and 2014. Results: The proportion of students reporting having ever tried illicit drugs increased from 2014 to 2018, for both males (30.8 vs. 36.7%) and females (17.5 vs. 24.0%, both p < 0.001), while only minimal changes occurred between 2010 and 2014. The most commonly used illicit drugs during the past 12 months in 2018 were cannabis (15.2%), followed by MDMA (4.0%), cocaine (3.0%), and LSD/psilocybin (2.1%). Illicit drug use showed both linear increase with age, and inverted U-shaped relationships that peaked in the age span from 23 to 28 years of age. Males reported higher illicit drug use compared with females for all drugs. Proportions of illicit drug use varied across geographical areas within the country, with the highest use being reported in the Oslo area (the largest city and capital of Norway). Conclusions: The present study reports an increase from 2010 to 2018 among Norwegian University and college students in the proportion of those reporting to have tried illicit drugs. Despite varying proportions of use across type of drug, age, gender, and geographical location, the overall high levels of illicit drug use past 12 months confirm the need to address illicit drug use in this population.

Detecting Mortality Trends in the Netherlands Across 625 Causes of Death

Cause of death (COD) data are essential to public health monitoring and policy. This study aims to determine the proportion of CODs, at ICD-10 three-position level, for which a long-term or short-term trend can be identified, and to examine how much the likelihood of identifying trends varies with COD size. We calculated annual age-standardized counts of deaths from Statistics Netherlands for the period 1996-2015 for 625 CODs. We applied linear regression models to estimate long-term trends, and outlier analysis to detect short-term changes. The association of the likelihood of a long-term trend with COD size was analyzed with multinomial logistic regression. No long-term trend could be demonstrated for 216 CODs (34.5%). For the remaining 409 causes, a trend could be detected, following a linear (211, 33.8%), quadratic (126, 20.2%) or cubic model (72, 11.5%). The probability of detecting a long-term trend increased from about 50% at six mean annual deaths, to 65% at 22 deaths and 75% at 60 deaths. An exceptionally high or low number of deaths in a single year was found for 16 CODs. When monitoring long-term mortality trends, one could consider a much broader range of causes of death, including ones with a relatively low number of annual deaths, than commonly used in condensed lists.

Divergent long-term trends and interannual variation in ecosystem resource use efficiencies of a southern boreal old black spruce forest 1999-2017

Long-term trends in ecosystem resource use efficiencies (RUEs) and their controlling factors are key pieces of information for understanding how an ecosystem responds to climate change. We used continuous eddy covariance and microclimate data over the period 1999-2017 from a 120-year-old black spruce stand in central Saskatchewan, Canada, to assess interannual variability, long-term trends, and key controlling factors of gross ecosystem production (GEP) and the RUEs of carbon (CUE = net primary production [NPP]/GEP), light (LUE = GEP/absorbed photosynthetic radiation [APAR]), and water (WUE = GEP/evapotranspiration [E]). At this site, annual GEP has shown an increasing trend over the 19 years (p < 0.01), which may be attributed to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Interannual variability in GEP, aside from its increasing trend, was most strongly related to spring temperatures. Associated with the significant increase in annual GEP were relatively small changes in NPP, APAR, and E, so that annual CUE showed a decreasing trend and annual LUE and WUE showed increasing trends over the 19 years. The long-term trends in the RUEs were related to the increasing CO₂ concentration. Further analysis of detrended RUEs showed that their interannual variation was impacted most strongly by air temperature. Two-factor linear models combining CO₂ concentration and air temperature performed well (R² ~0.60) in simulating annual RUEs. LUE and WUE were positively correlated both annually and seasonally, while LUE and CUE were mostly negatively correlated. Our results showed divergent long-term trends among CUE, LUE, and WUE and highlighted the need to account for the combined effects of climatic controls and the 'CO₂ fertilization effect' on long-term variations in RUEs. Since most RUE-based models rely primarily on one resource limitation, the observed patterns of relative change among the three RUEs may have important implications for RUE-based modeling of C fluxes.

Decoupled trophic responses to long-term recovery from acidification and associated browning in lakes

Increases in the concentration of dissolved organic matter (DOM) have been documented in many inland waters in recent decades, a process known as "browning". Previous studies have often used space-for-time substitution to examine the direct consequences of increased DOM on lake ecosystems. However, browning often occurs concomitant with other ecologically important water chemistry changes that may interact with or overwhelm any potential ecological response to browning itself. Here we examine a long-term (~20 year) dataset of 28 lakes in the Adirondack Park, New York, USA, that have undergone strong browning in response to recovery from acidification. With these data, we explored how primary producer and zooplankton consumer populations changed during this time and what physical and chemical changes best predicted these long-term ecosystem changes. Our results indicate that changes in primary producers are likely driven by reduced water clarity due to browning, independent of changes in nutrients, counter to previously hypothesized primary producer response to browning. In contrast, declines in calcium concomitant with browning play an important role in driving long-term declines in zooplankton biomass. Our results indicate that responses to browning at different trophic levels are decoupled from one another. Concomitant chemical changes have important implications for our understanding of the response of aquatic ecosystems to browning.

Difference in Long-Term Trends in COPD Mortality between China and the U.S., 1992⁻2017: An Age⁻Period⁻Cohort Analysis

Complications due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of death in China and the United States (U.S.). This study aimed to investigate the long-term trends in COPD mortality in China and the U.S. using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017) and explore the age, period, and cohort effects independently by sex under the age–period–cohort (APC) framework. Taking the age group 40–44 years old, the period 1992–1996, and the birth cohort 1913–1917 as reference groups, we found that the age relative risks (RRs) of COPD mortality increased exponentially in both China and the U.S., the period RRs increased in the U.S. but decreased in China; and the cohort RRs showed an overall downward trend in both China and the U.S. with the year of birth. From 1992 to 2017, the increased RRs of COPD mortality in the U.S. was mainly attributable to the increased prevalence of smoking before 1965, while the decreased RRs of COPD mortality in China was mainly attributable to reduced air pollution as well as improvements in medical technology and more accessible health services. Reducing tobacco consumption may be the most effective and feasible way to prevent COPD in China. However, we also need to pay more attention to COPD in nonsmokers in the future.

Eighteen-Year Trends in the Prevalence of, and Health Care Use for, Noncancer Pain in the United States: Data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey

We used data from the nationally representative Medical Expenditure Panel Survey to determine the 18-year trends in the overall rates of noncancer pain prevalence and pain-related interference, as well as in health care use attributable directly to pain management. The proportion of adults reporting painful health condition(s) increased from 32.9% (99.7% confidence interval [CI] = 31.6-34.2%;120 million adults) in 1997/1998 to 41.0% (99.7% CI = 39.2-42.4%; 178 million adults) in 2013/2014 (P_trend < .0001). Among adults with severe pain-related interference associated with their painful health condition(s), the use of strong opioids specifically for pain management more than doubled from 11.5% (99.7% CI = 9.6-13.4%) in 2001/2002 to 24.3% (99.7% CI = 21.3-27.3%) in 2013/2014 (P_trend < .0001). A smaller increase (P_interaction < .0001) in strong opioid use was seen in those with minimal pain-related interference: 1.2% (99.7% CI = 1.0-1.4%) in 2001/2002 to 2.3% (99.7% CI = 1.9-2.7%) in 2013/2014. Small but statistically significant decreases (P_trend < .0001) were seen in 1) the percentage of adults with painful health condition(s) who had ≥1 ambulatory office visit for their pain: 56.1% (99.7% CI = 54.2-58.0%) in 1997/1998 and 53.3% (99.7% CI = 51.4-55.4%) in 2013/2014; 2) the percentage who had ≥1 emergency room visit for their pain; 9.9% (99.7% CI = 8.6-11.2%) to 8.8% (99.7% CI = 7.9-9.7%); and 3) the percentage with ≥1 overnight hospitalization for their pain: 3.2% (99.7% CI = 2.6-4.0%) to 2.3% (99.7% CI = 1.8-2.8%). PERSPECTIVE: Our data illustrate changes in the management of painful health conditions over the last 2 decades in the United States. Strong opioid use remains high, especially in those with severe pain-related interference. Additional education of health care providers and the public concerning the risk/benefit ratio of opioids appears warranted.

Trends in HCV treatment uptake, efficacy and impact on liver fibrosis in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapies with interferon-free second-generation direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are highly effective and well tolerated. They have the potential to increase treatment eligibility and efficacy in HIV-infected patients. We assessed the impact of DAAs on treatment uptake and efficacy, as well as its impact on the burden of liver disease in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS).

METHODS

We describe clinical and virological characteristics of patients treated with second-generation DAAs. We compared treatment incidence, sustained virological response (SVR)12 and liver fibrosis stages between three time periods: period 1, 01/2009-08/2011 (prior to the availability of DAAs); period 2, 09/2011-03/2014 (first generation DAAs); period 3, 04/2014-12/2015 (second generation DAAs).

RESULTS

At the beginning of the third period, 876 SHCS participants had a chronic HCV infection of whom 180 (20%) started treatment with a second-generation DAA. Three-quarters of them had advanced liver fibrosis (Metavir ≥ F3) of whom 80% were cirrhotics. SVR12 was achieved in 173/180 (96%) patients, three patients died and four experienced a virological failure. Over the three time periods, treatment uptake (4.5/100 py, 5.7/100 py, 22.4/100 py) and efficacy (54%, 70%, 96% SVR12) continuously increased. The proportion of cirrhotic patients with replicating HCV infection in the SHCS declined from 25% at the beginning to 12% at the end of the last period.

CONCLUSIONS

After the introduction of second-generation DAAs, we observed an increase in treatment uptake and efficacy which resulted in a significant reduction in the number of cirrhotic patients with a replicating HCV infection in the SHCS.

Causes and consequences of decreasing atmospheric organic aerosol in the United States

Exposure to atmospheric particulate matter (PM) exacerbates respiratory and cardiovascular conditions and is a leading source of premature mortality globally. Organic aerosol contributes a significant fraction of PM in the United States. Here, using surface observations between 1990 and 2012, we show that organic carbon has declined dramatically across the entire United States by 25-50%; accounting for more than 30% of the US-wide decline in PM. The decline is in contrast with the increasing organic aerosol due to wildfires and no clear trend in biogenic emissions. By developing a carbonaceous emissions database for the United States, we show that at least two-thirds of the decline in organic aerosol can be explained by changes in anthropogenic emissions, primarily from vehicle emissions and residential fuel burning. We estimate that the decrease in anthropogenic organic aerosol is responsible for averting 180,000 (117,000-389,000) premature deaths between 1990 and 2012. The unexpected decrease in organic aerosol, likely a consequence of the implementation of Clean Air Act Amendments, results in 84,000 (30,000-164,000) more lives saved than anticipated by the EPA between 2000 and 2010.

Assessing long-term effects of multiple, potentially confounded drivers in ecosystems from species traits

Although species traits have the potential to disentangle long-term effects of multiple, potentially confounded drivers in ecosystems, this issue has received very little attention in the literature. We aimed at filling this gap by assessing the relative effects of hydroclimatic and water quality factors on the trait composition of invertebrate assemblages over 30 years in the Middle Loire River (France). Using a priori predictions on the long-term variation of trait-based adaptations over the three decades, we evaluated the ability of invertebrate traits to indicate the effects of warming, discharge reduction and water quality improvement. Hydroclimatic and water quality factors contributed to up to 65% of the variation in trait composition. More than 70% of the initial trait response predictions made according to observed long-term hydroclimatic changes were confirmed. They supported a general climate-induced trend involving adapted resistance and resilience strategies. A partial confounding effect of water quality improvement acting on trophic processes was also highlighted, indicating that improved water quality management can significantly help to reduce some adverse effects of climate change. This trait-based approach can have wider implications for investigating long-term changes driven by multiple, potentially confounded factors, as frequently encountered in the context of global change.

Leachate from Municipal Waste Landfill and Its Natural Degradation-A Case Study of Zubří, Zlín Region

This work deals with the natural degradation of leachate from an old reclaimed landfill by means of a biological pond. Hamra is a municipal waste landfill with a limited formation of leachate, which has already been reclaimed. Leachate in this location is disposed of using natural biogeochemical method, and it is subsequently discharged into a surface stream. The main issue dealt with here is the long-term effectiveness of natural degradation of leachate and the limits of its use. The solutions of these fundamental questions took advantage of a database of analytical assessments collected during a long-term monitoring of the landfill site. The primary degradation trends and the long-term development have been revealed and described on the basis of these assessments. The main benefit of the biological pond is the dilution of the dominant contaminants, especially of inorganic character. In the case of ammonium ions, they show nitrification caused by their transition from the reduction into oxidizing environment. From a long term point of view, the disadvantage of natural degradation of leachate can be seen in the gradual reduction in efficiency due to the concentration of the substances or an undesired growth of water plants, which can be successfully eliminated, for example, by means of targeted aeration and by maintaining vegetation in the pond and its surroundings. The biological potential of the locality is very favorable and, despite its anthropogenic load, it creates a location with suitable living conditions for many water animals and plants. That is why it can be concluded that the efficiency of the natural biochemical cleaning elements can be considered as sufficient, taking into account the nature of the deposited waste, the quantity and quality of leachate, as well as the climate character of the locality.

More, smaller bacteria in response to ocean's warming?

Heterotrophic bacteria play a major role in organic matter cycling in the ocean. Although the high abundances and relatively fast growth rates of coastal surface bacterioplankton make them suitable sentinels of global change, past analyses have largely overlooked this functional group. Here, time series analysis of a decade of monthly observations in temperate Atlantic coastal waters revealed strong seasonal patterns in the abundance, size and biomass of the ubiquitous flow-cytometric groups of low (LNA) and high nucleic acid (HNA) content bacteria. Over this relatively short period, we also found that bacterioplankton cells were significantly smaller, a trend that is consistent with the hypothesized temperature-driven decrease in body size. Although decadal cell shrinking was observed for both groups, it was only LNA cells that were strongly coherent, with ecological theories linking temperature, abundance and individual size on both the seasonal and interannual scale. We explain this finding because, relative to their HNA counterparts, marine LNA bacteria are less diverse, dominated by members of the SAR11 clade. Temperature manipulation experiments in 2012 confirmed a direct effect of warming on bacterial size. Concurrent with rising temperatures in spring, significant decadal trends of increasing standing stocks (3% per year) accompanied by decreasing mean cell size (−1% per year) suggest a major shift in community structure, with a larger contribution of LNA bacteria to total biomass. The increasing prevalence of these typically oligotrophic taxa may severely impact marine food webs and carbon fluxes by an overall decrease in the efficiency of the biological pump.

Life expectancy and health expenditure evolution in Eastern Europe-DiD and DEA analysis

BACKGROUND

Exploration of long-term health expenditure and longevity trends across three major sub-regions of Eastern Europe since 1989.

METHODS

24 countries were classified as EU 2004, CIS, or SEE. European Health for All Database (HFA-DB) 1989-2012 data were processed using difference-in-difference (DiD) and data envelopment analysis (DEA).

RESULTS

The strongest expenditure growth was recorded in EU 2004 followed by SEE and the CIS. A surprisingly similar longevity increase was present in SEE and EU 2004. In 1989, countries that joined EU in 2004 were relatively inefficient in the number of life-years gained yet had a lower life expectancy than the SEE region and was only slightly higher than the CIS region (DEA). By 2012 the revenue spent was roughly linear to additional life-year expectancies.

CONCLUSION

EU 2004 members were the best performers in terms of balanced longevity increase followed by health expenditure growth. The SEE economies' longevity gains were lagging slightly behind at a far lower cost. An extrapolated CIS expenditure to longevity increase ratio has the fastest-growing long-term promise.

Acceleration of cyanobacterial dominance in north temperate-subarctic lakes during the Anthropocene

Increases in atmospheric temperature and nutrients from land are thought to be promoting the expansion of harmful cyanobacteria in lakes worldwide, yet to date there has been no quantitative synthesis of long-term trends. To test whether cyanobacteria have increased in abundance over the past ~ 200 years and evaluate the relative influence of potential causal mechanisms, we synthesised 108 highly resolved sedimentary time series and 18 decadal-scale monitoring records from north temperate-subarctic lakes. We demonstrate that: (1) cyanobacteria have increased significantly since c. 1800 ce, (2) they have increased disproportionately relative to other phytoplankton, and (3) cyanobacteria increased more rapidly post c. 1945 ce. Variation among lakes in the rates of increase was explained best by nutrient concentration (phosphorus and nitrogen), and temperature was of secondary importance. Although cyanobacterial biomass has declined in some managed lakes with reduced nutrient influx, the larger spatio-temporal scale of sedimentary records show continued increases in cyanobacteria throughout the north temperate-subarctic regions.