Substituting space for time: Bird responses to forest loss in space provide a general picture of responses over time

The practice of space-for-time substitution assumes that the responses of species or communities to land-use change over space represents how they will respond to that same change over time. Space-for-time substitution is commonly used in both ecology and conservation, but whether the assumption produces reliable insights remains inconclusive. Here, we tested space-for-time substitution using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and Global Forest Change (GFC) to compare the effects of landscape-scale forest cover on bird richness and abundance over time and space, for 25 space-time comparisons. Each comparison consisted of a landscape that experienced at least 20% forest loss over 19 years (temporal site) and a set of 15-19 landscapes (spatial sites) that represented the same forest cover gradient over space in 2019 as experienced over time in their corresponding temporal site. Across the 25 comparisons, the observed responses of forest and open-habitat birds to forest cover over time generally aligned with their responses to forest cover over space, but with comparatively higher variability in the magnitude and direction of effect across the 25 temporal slopes than across the 25 spatial slopes. On average, the mean differences between the spatial and temporal slopes across the 25 space-time comparisons frequently overlapped with zero, suggesting that the spatial slopes are generally informative of the temporal slopes. However, we observed high variability around these mean differences, indicating that a single spatial slope is not strongly predictive of its corresponding temporal slope. We suggest that our results may be explained by annual variability in other relevant environmental factors that combine to produce complex effects on population abundances over time that are not easily captured by snapshots in space. While not being a 1:1 proxy, measuring bird responses to changes in habitat amount in space provides an idea on how birds might be expected to eventually equilibrate to similar changes in habitat amount over time. Further, analyses such as this could be potentially used to screen for cases of regional space-time mismatches where population-limiting factors other than habitat could be playing a more important role in the population trends observed there.

Unveiling the rise of non-native fishes in eastern alpine mountain rivers: Population trends and implications

Insufficient knowledge about the occurrence and spread of non-native fish in mountain regions has impeded effective management strategies worldwide. To address this gap, this study analysed over 1300 electrofishing surveys across 650 sites, encompassing a vast 7400 km2 area in the Eastern Alps. The primary objectives were to quantify the occurrence of non-native species and predict their spread in different river types. Furthermore, the study estimated population sizes and biomass trends for over 150 sites that were surveyed multiple times between 2000 and 2020. Out of the 42 fish species in the study region, 11 were identified as non-native. Notably, two invasive species of Union concern, Lepomis gibbosus and Pseudorasbora parva, increased their population sizes by 8% and 9% per year, over the past decades, supposedly supported by increasing water temperatures. Among the non-native species relevant for recreational fishing, Oncorhynchus mykiss populations showed a significant increase of approximately 7% per year, Salmo trutta populations remained stable, and Salvelinus fontinalis populations experienced a notable decline of approximately 7.4% per year. These varying population trends may be attributed to disparities in stocking intensities, with S. fontinalis receiving minimal stocking compared to the other species. This study revealed that non-native and invasive fish species are a relevant part of fish communities in mountain rivers. Non-salmonid non-natives thrive in warm rivers at lower elevations, whereas salmonid non-natives consolidate in steeper habitats. Because rising temperatures in mountain rivers will accelerate the spread and growth of these species, this first quantification of the current extent will improve fish management strategies in mountainous areas.

Temperature niche composition change inside and outside protected areas under climate warming

Conservation of biodiversity relies heavily on protected areas but their role and effectiveness under a warming climate is still debated. We estimated the climate-driven changes in the temperature niche compositions of bird communities inside and outside protected areas in southern Canada. We hypothesized that communities inside protected areas include a higher proportion of cold-dwelling species than communities outside protected areas. We also hypothesized that communities shift to warm-dwelling species more slowly inside protected areas than outside. To study community changes, we used large-scale and long-term (1997-2019) data from the Breeding Bird Survey of Canada. To describe the temperature niche compositions of bird communities, we calculated the community temperature index (CTI) annually for each community inside and outside protected areas. Generally, warm-dwelling species dominated communities with high CTI values. We modeled temporal changes in CTI as a function of protection status with linear mixed-effect models. We also determined which species contributed most to the temporal changes in CTI with a jackknife approach. As anticipated, CTI was lower inside protected areas than outside. However, contrary to our expectation, CTI increased faster over time inside than outside protected areas and warm-dwelling species contributed most to CTI change inside protected areas. These results highlight the ubiquitous impacts of climate warming. Currently, protected areas can aid cold-dwelling species by providing habitat, but as the climate warms, the communities' temperature compositions inside protected areas quickly begin to resemble those outside protected areas, suggesting that protected areas delay the impacts of climate warming on cold-dwelling species.

Giant pandas are losing their edge: Population trend and distribution dynamic drivers of the giant panda

Comprehending the population trend and understanding the distribution range dynamics of species are necessary for global species protection. Recognizing what causes dynamic distribution change is crucial for identifying species' environmental preferences and formulating protection policies. Here, we studied the rear-edge population of the flagship species, giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), to (1) assess their population trend using their distribution patterns, (2) evaluate their distribution dynamics change from the second (1988) to the third (2001) survey (2-3 Interval) and third to the fourth (2013) survey (3-4 Interval) using a machine learning algorithm (eXtremely Gradient Boosting), and (3) decode model results to identify driver factors in the first known use of SHapley Additive exPlanations. Our results showed that the population trends in Liangshan Mountains were worst in the second survey (k = 1.050), improved by the third survey (k = 0.97), but deteriorated by the fourth survey (k = 0.996), which indicates a worrying population future. We found that precipitation had the most significant influence on distribution dynamics among several potential environmental factors, showing a negative correlation between precipitation and giant panda expansion. We recommend that further research is needed to understand the microenvironment and animal distribution dynamics. We provide a fresh perspective on the dynamics of giant panda distribution, highlighting novel focal points for ecological research on this species. Our study offers theoretical underpinnings that could inform the formulation of more effective conservation policies. Also, we emphasize the uniqueness and importance of the Liangshan Mountains giant pandas as the rear-edge population, which is at a high risk of population extinction.

Climate-driven divergent long-term trends of forest beetles in Japan

Concerning declines in insect populations have been reported from Europe and the United States, yet there are gaps in our knowledge of the drivers of insect trends and their distribution across the world. We report on our analysis of a spatially extensive, 14-year study of ground-dwelling beetles in four natural forest biomes spanning Japan's entire latitudinal range (3000 km). Beetle species richness, abundance and biomass declined in evergreen coniferous forests but increased in broadleaf-coniferous mixed forests. Further, beetles in evergreen coniferous forests responded negatively to increased temperature and precipitation anomalies, which have both risen over the study's timespan. These significant changes parallel reports of climate-driven changes in forest tree species, providing further evidence that climate change is altering forest ecosystems fundamentally. Given the enormous biodiversity and ecosystem services that forests support globally, the implications for biodiversity change resulting from climate change could be profound.

More winners than losers over 12 years of monitoring tiger moths (Erebidae: Arctiinae) on Barro Colorado Island, Panama

Understanding the causes and consequences of insect declines has become an important goal in ecology, particularly in the tropics, where most terrestrial diversity exists. Over the past 12 years, the ForestGEO Arthropod Initiative has systematically monitored multiple insect groups on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, providing baseline data for assessing long-term population trends. Here, we estimate the rates of change in abundance among 96 tiger moth species on BCI. Population trends of most species were stable (n = 20) or increasing (n = 62), with few (n = 14) declining species. Our analysis of morphological and climatic sensitivity traits associated with population trends shows that species-specific responses to climate were most strongly linked with trends. Specifically, tiger moth species that are more abundant in warmer and wetter years are more likely to show population increases. Our study contrasts with recent findings indicating insect decline in tropical and temperate regions. These results highlight the significant role of biotic responses to climate in determining long-term population trends and suggest that future climate changes are likely to impact tropical insect communities.

Detecting climate signals in populations across life histories

Climate impacts are not always easily discerned in wild populations as detecting climate change signals in populations is challenged by stochastic noise associated with natural climate variability, variability in biotic and abiotic processes, and observation error in demographic rates. Detection of the impact of climate change on populations requires making a formal distinction between signals in the population associated with long-term climate trends from those generated by stochastic noise. The time of emergence (ToE) identifies when the signal of anthropogenic climate change can be quantitatively distinguished from natural climate variability. This concept has been applied extensively in the climate sciences, but has not been explored in the context of population dynamics. Here, we outline an approach to detecting climate-driven signals in populations based on an assessment of when climate change drives population dynamics beyond the envelope characteristic of stochastic variations in an unperturbed state. Specifically, we present a theoretical assessment of the time of emergence of climate-driven signals in population dynamics ( ToE pop ). We identify the dependence of ToE pop on the magnitude of both trends and variability in climate and also explore the effect of intrinsic demographic controls on ToE pop . We demonstrate that different life histories (fast species vs. slow species), demographic processes (survival, reproduction), and the relationships between climate and demographic rates yield population dynamics that filter climate trends and variability differently. We illustrate empirically how to detect the point in time when anthropogenic signals in populations emerge from stochastic noise for a species threatened by climate change: the emperor penguin. Finally, we propose six testable hypotheses and a road map for future research.

Effects of aquaculture on the maintenance of waterbird populations

The global aquaculture industry has expanded rapidly and is increasingly important for maintaining food security while also providing alternative artificial habitats for many waterbirds. Clarifying how waterbirds use aquafarms and how aquafarm use affects waterbird population maintenance can be useful for improving management of the artificial landscape that can also provide waterbird habitat. Here, we investigated aquafarm use by waterbirds in China, the world's largest producer of aquaculture products, supported by literature review and questionnaire survey. We used Bayesian phylogenetic generalized linear mixed models to analyze the relationship between the degree of aquafarm use and population trends of waterbirds. The results showed that 69% of waterbird species in China have been recorded at aquafarms. Approximately one-quarter of all waterbird species and about the same proportion of threatened species were found to forage at aquafarms, consuming either cultured aquatic products or other food types. In general, species with a high degree of aquafarm use were unlikely to exhibit a population decline over the past two decades, when rapid loss of natural habitats occurred in China. This relationship was not detected in threatened species, despite there being no significant difference in the degree of aquafarm use between threatened and non-threatened species. Our study suggests that the large and expanding aquaculture industry is important for maintaining waterbird populations in China. However, aquafarms are not a replacement for natural habitats, because threatened species benefit less from aquafarm use. Given that aquafarms often come at the expense of natural wetlands, the degree to which aquafarms compensate for natural habitat loss probably depends on the quality of aquafarm habitat. We recommend an integrated ecological and economic analysis for formulating management policies that help conserve wildlife within the constraints and opportunities associated with maintaining human livelihoods. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Species Traits Drive Long-Term Population Trends of Common Breeding Birds in Northern Italy

Long-term population trends are considerable sources of information to set wildlife conservation priorities and to evaluate the performance of management actions. In addition, trends observed in functional groups (e.g., trophic guilds) can provide the foundation to test specific hypotheses about the drivers of the observed population dynamics. The aims of this study were to assess population trends of breeding birds in Lombardy (N Italy) from 1992 to 2019 and to explore the relationships between trends and species sharing similar ecological and life history traits. Trends were quantified and tested for significance by weighted linear regression models and using yearly population indices (median and 95% confidence interval) predicted through generalized additive models. Results showed that 45% of the species increased, 24% decreased, and 31% showed non-significant trends. Life history traits analyses revealed a general decrease of migrants, of species with short incubation period and of species with high annual fecundity. Ecological traits analyses showed that plant-eaters and species feeding on invertebrates, farmland birds, and ground-nesters declined, while woodland birds increased. Further studies should focus on investigation of the relationship between long-term trends and species traits at large spatial scales, and on quantifying the effects of specific drivers across multiple functional groups.

Decline in Distribution and Abundance: Urban Hedgehogs under Pressure

Simple Summary

Hedgehogs have been found in higher densities in urban compared to rural areas. Recent dramatic declines in rural hedgehog numbers lead us to pose the question: how are hedgehogs faring in urban areas? In this study, we examined how hedgehog numbers have changed in the city of Zurich, Switzerland, in the last 25 years. We compared data collected through citizen science projects conducted in 1992 and 2016–2018, including: observations of hedgehogs, data from footprint tunnels, and capture-mark recapture studies. We found that hedgehog numbers have declined by 41%, from the former average of more than 30 individuals per km², in the last 25 years. In the same time span, hedgehogs have lost 18% of their former urban distribution. The reasons for this decline are still unknown. Intensification of urban buildup, reduction of green space quality, the use of pesticides, parasites, or diseases, as well as increasing numbers of badgers, which are hedgehog predators, in urban areas are discussed as potential causes. Worryingly, these results suggest that hedgehogs are now under increasing pressure not only in rural but also in urban areas, their former refuges.

Abstract

Increasing urbanization and densification are two of the largest global threats to biodiversity. However, certain species thrive in urban spaces. Hedgehogs Erinaceus europaeus have been found in higher densities in green areas of settlements as compared to rural spaces. With recent studies pointing to dramatically declining hedgehog numbers in rural areas, we pose the question: how do hedgehogs fare in urban spaces, and do these spaces act as refuges? In this study, recent (2016–2018) and past (1992) hedgehog abundance and distribution were compared across the city of Zurich, Switzerland using citizen science methods, including: footprint tunnels, capture-mark recapture, and incidental sightings. Our analyses revealed consistent negative trends: Overall hedgehog distribution decreased by 17.6% ± 4.7%, whereas abundance declined by 40.6% (mean abundance 32 vs. 19 hedgehogs/km², in past and recent time, respectively), with one study plot even showing a 91% decline in this period (78 vs. 7 hedgehogs/km², respectively). We discuss possible causes of this rapid decline: increased urban densification, reduction of insect biomass, and pesticide use, as well as the role of increasing populations of badgers (a hedgehog predator) and parasites or diseases. Our results suggest that hedgehogs are now under increasing pressure not only in rural but also in urban areas, their former refuges.

Disentangling monitoring programs: design, analysis, and application considerations

Monitoring programs are an essential tool for assessing and informing conservation efforts but the methods used to gather monitoring data directly influence results. This presents a challenge to conservation professionals when deciding on existing data to inform a given question. We illustrate the challenges of using monitoring data by comparing population trends from two large-scale avian monitoring programs in the western United States: the Breeding Bird Survey and Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions programs. We used publicly available data to compare trend trajectory between 2008 and 2015 for 148 species across Colorado, Montana, and Wyoming. Trends were inconsistent for 62% of the comparisons, with species having opposite trends in 21 cases. The inconsistencies found within our species comparisons reflect the inherent differences between program sampling design and analytical approach. Periodically revisiting how and why we monitor natural resources is necessary to advance conservation and management as the lessons learned from long-standing programs guide the development of more recent efforts. Our results emphasize that prior to management actions and policy decisions, managers must be aware of both the sampling design and appropriate ecological inference of any monitoring program.

Decline towards extinction of Mexico's vaquita porpoise (Phocoena sinus)

The vaquita (Phocoena sinus) is a small porpoise endemic to Mexico. It is listed by IUCN as Critically Endangered because of unsustainable levels of bycatch in gillnets. The population has been monitored with passive acoustic detectors every summer from 2011 to 2018; here we report results for 2017 and 2018. We combine the acoustic trends with an independent estimate of population size from 2015, and visual observations of at least seven animals in 2017 and six in 2018. Despite adoption of an emergency gillnet ban in May 2015, the estimated rate of decline remains extremely high: 48% decline in 2017 (95% Bayesian credible interval (CRI) 78% decline to 9% increase) and 47% in 2018 (95% CRI 80% decline to 13% increase). Estimated total population decline since 2011 is 98.6%, with greater than 99% probability the decline is greater than 33% yr^-1. We estimate fewer than 19 vaquitas remained as of summer 2018 (posterior mean 9, median 8, 95% CRI 6-19). From March 2016 to March 2019, 10 dead vaquitas killed in gillnets were found. The ongoing presence of illegal gillnets despite the emergency ban continues to drive the vaquita towards extinction. Immediate management action is required if the species is to be saved.

Declining population trends of European mountain birds

Mountain areas often hold special species communities, and they are high on the list of conservation concern. Global warming and changes in human land use, such as grazing pressure and afforestation, have been suggested to be major threats for biodiversity in the mountain areas, affecting species abundance and causing distribution shifts towards mountaintops. Population shifts towards poles and mountaintops have been documented in several areas, indicating that climate change is one of the key drivers of species' distribution changes. Despite the high conservation concern, relatively little is known about the population trends of species in mountain areas due to low accessibility and difficult working conditions. Thanks to the recent improvement of bird monitoring schemes around Europe, we can here report a first account of population trends of 44 bird species from four major European mountain regions: Fennoscandia, UK upland, south-western (Iberia) and south-central mountains (Alps), covering 12 countries. Overall, the mountain bird species declined significantly (-7%) during 2002-2014, which is similar to the declining rate in common birds in Europe during the same period. Mountain specialists showed a significant -10% decline in population numbers. The slope for mountain generalists was also negative, but not significantly so. The slopes of specialists and generalists did not differ from each other. Fennoscandian and Iberian populations were on average declining, while in United Kingdom and Alps, trends were nonsignificant. Temperature change or migratory behaviour was not significantly associated with regional population trends of species. Alpine habitats are highly vulnerable to climate change, and this is certainly one of the main drivers of mountain bird population trends. However, observed declines can also be partly linked with local land use practices. More efforts should be undertaken to identify the causes of decline and to increase conservation efforts for these populations.

Estimating occupancy dynamics for large-scale monitoring networks: amphibian breeding occupancy across protected areas in the northeast United States

Regional monitoring strategies frequently employ a nested sampling design where a finite set of study areas from throughout a region are selected and intensive sampling occurs within a subset of sites within the individual study areas. This sampling protocol naturally lends itself to a hierarchical analysis to account for dependence among subsamples. Implementing such an analysis using a classic likelihood framework is computationally challenging when accounting for detection errors in species occurrence models. Bayesian methods offer an alternative approach for fitting models that readily allows for spatial structure to be incorporated. We demonstrate a general approach for estimating occupancy when data come from a nested sampling design. We analyzed data from a regional monitoring program of wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) and spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum) in vernal pools using static and dynamic occupancy models. We analyzed observations from 2004 to 2013 that were collected within 14 protected areas located throughout the northeast United States. We use the data set to estimate trends in occupancy at both the regional and individual protected area levels. We show that occupancy at the regional level was relatively stable for both species. However, substantial variation occurred among study areas, with some populations declining and some increasing for both species. In addition, When the hierarchical study design is not accounted for, one would conclude stronger support for latitudinal gradient in trends than when using our approach that accounts for the nested design. In contrast to the model that does not account for nesting, the nested model did not include an effect of latitude in the 95% credible interval. These results shed light on the range‐level population status of these pond‐breeding amphibians, and our approach provides a framework that can be used to examine drivers of local and regional occurrence dynamics.

Rapid declines of large mammal populations after the collapse of the Soviet Union

Anecdotal evidence suggests that socioeconomic shocks strongly affect wildlife populations, but quantitative evidence is sparse. The collapse of socialism in Russia in 1991 caused a major socioeconomic shock, including a sharp increase in poverty. We analyzed population trends of 8 large mammals in Russia from 1981 to 2010 (i.e., before and after the collapse). We hypothesized that the collapse would first cause population declines, primarily due to overexploitation, and then population increases due to adaptation of wildlife to new environments following the collapse. The long-term Database of the Russian Federal Agency of Game Mammal Monitoring, consisting of up to 50,000 transects that are monitored annually, provided an exceptional data set for investigating these population trends. Three species showed strong declines in population growth rates in the decade following the collapse, while grey wolf (Canis lupus) increased by more than 150%. After 2000 some trends reversed. For example, roe deer (Capreolus spp.) abundance in 2010 was the highest of any period in our study. Likely reasons for the population declines in the 1990s include poaching and the erosion of wildlife protection enforcement. The rapid increase of the grey wolf populations is likely due to the cessation of governmental population control. In general, the widespread declines in wildlife populations after the collapse of the Soviet Union highlight the magnitude of the effects that socioeconomic shocks can have on wildlife populations and the possible need for special conservation efforts during such times.

Predicting and setting conservation priorities for Bolivian mammals based on biological correlates of the risk of decline

The recognition that growing proportions of species worldwide are endangered has led to the development of comparative analyses to elucidate why some species are more prone to extinction than others. Understanding factors and patterns of species vulnerability might provide an opportunity to develop proactive conservation strategies. Such comparative analyses are of special concern at national scales because this is the scale at which most conservation initiatives take place. We applied powerful ensemble learning models to test for biological correlates of the risk of decline among the Bolivian mammals to understand species vulnerability at a national scale and to predict the population trend for poorly known species. Risk of decline was nonrandomly distributed: higher proportions of large-sized taxa were under decline, whereas small-sized taxa were less vulnerable. Body mass, mode of life (i.e., aquatic, terrestrial, volant), geographic range size, litter size, home range, niche specialization, and reproductive potential were strongly associated with species vulnerability. Moreover, we found interacting and nonlinear effects of key traits on the risk of decline of mammals at a national scale. Our model predicted 35 data-deficient species in decline on the basis of their biological vulnerability, which should receive more attention in order to prevent their decline. Our results highlight the relevance of comparative analysis at relatively narrow geographical scales, reveal previously unknown factors related to species vulnerability, and offer species-by-species outcomes that can be used to identify targets for conservation, especially for insufficiently known species.

Declines in migrant shorebird populations from a winter-quarter perspective

Many long-distance migrating shorebird (i.e., sandpipers, plovers, flamingos, oystercatchers) populations are declining. Although regular shorebird monitoring programs exist worldwide, most estimates of shorebird population trends and sizes are poor or nonexistent. We built a state-space model to estimate shorebird population trends. Compared with more commonly used methods of trend estimation, state-space models are more mechanistic, allow for the separation of observation and state process, and can easily accommodate multivariate time series and nonlinear trends. We fitted the model to count data collected from 1990 to 2013 on 18 common shorebirds at the 2 largest coastal wetlands in southern Africa, Sandwich Harbour (a relatively pristine bay) and Walvis Bay (an international harbor), Namibia. Four of the 12 long-distance migrant species declined since 1990: Ruddy Turnstone (Arenaria interpres), Little Stint (Calidris minuta), Common Ringed Plover (Charadrius hiaticula), and Red Knot (Calidris canutus). Populations of resident species and short-distance migrants increased or were stable. Similar patterns at a key South African wetland suggest that shorebird populations migrating to southern Africa are declining in line with the global decline, but local conditions in southern Africa's largest wetlands are not contributing to these declines. State-space models provide estimates of population levels and trends and could be used widely to improve the current state of water bird estimates.

Evidence for the buffer effect operating in multiple species at a national scale

A long-standing aim of ecologists is to understand the processes involved in regulating populations. One such mechanism is the buffer effect, where lower quality habitats are increasingly used as a species reaches higher population densities, with a resultant average reduction in fecundity and survival limiting population growth. Although the buffer effect has been demonstrated in populations of a number of species, a test of its importance in influencing population growth rates of multiple species across large spatial scales is lacking. Here, we use habitat-specific population trends for 85 bird species from long-term national monitoring data (the UK Breeding Bird Survey) to examine its generality. We find that both patterns of population change and changes in habitat preference are consistent with the predictions of the buffer effect, providing support for its widespread operation.

The risks of learning: confounding detection and demographic trend when using count-based indices for population monitoring

Theory recognizes that a treatment of the detection process is required to avoid producing biased estimates of population rate of change. Still, one of three monitoring programmes on animal or plant populations is focused on simply counting individuals or other fixed visible structures, such as natal dens, nests, tree cavities. This type of monitoring design poses concerns about the possibility to respect the assumption of constant detection, as the information acquired in a given year about the spatial distribution of reproductive sites can provide a higher chance to detect the species in subsequent years. We developed an individual-based simulation model, which evaluates how the accumulation of knowledge about the spatial distribution of a population process can affect the accuracy of population growth rate estimates, when using simple count-based indices. Then, we assessed the relative importance of each parameter in affecting monitoring performance. We also present the case of wolverines (Gulo gulo) in southern Scandinavia as an example of a monitoring system with an intrinsic tendency to accumulate knowledge and increase detectability. When the occupation of a nest or den is temporally autocorrelated, the monitoring system is prone to increase its knowledge with time. This happens also when there is no intensification in monitoring effort and no change in the monitoring conditions. Such accumulated knowledge is likely to increase detection probability with time and can produce severe bias in the estimation of the rate and direction of population change over time. We recommend that a systematic sampling of the population process under study and an explicit treatment of the underlying detection process should be implemented whenever economic and logistical constraints permit, as failure to include detection probability in the estimation of population growth rate can lead to serious bias and severe consequences for management and conservation.

Understanding the contribution of habitats and regional variation to long-term population trends in tricolored blackbirds

Population trends represent a minimum amount of information required to assess the conservation status of a species. However, understanding and detecting trends can be complicated by variation among habitats and regions, and by dispersal connecting habitats through source-sink dynamics. We analyzed trends in breeding populations between habitats and regions to better understand the overall dynamics of a species' decline. Specifically, we analyzed historical trends in breeding populations of tricolored blackbirds (Agelaius tricolor) using breeding records from 1907 to 2009. The species breeds itinerantly and ephemerally uses multiple habitat types and breeding areas, which make interpretation of trends complex. We found overall abundance declines of 63% between 1935 and 1975. Since 1980 overall declines became nonsignificant and obscure despite large amounts of data from 1980 to 2009. Temporal trends differed between breeding habitat types and were associated with regional differences in population declines. A new habitat, triticale crops (a wheat-rye hybrid grain) produced colonies 40× larger, on average, than other breeding habitats, and contributed to a change in regional distribution since it primarily occurred in a single region. The mechanism for such an effect is not clear, but could represent the local availability of foodstuffs in the landscape rather than something specific to triticale crops. While variation in trends among habitats clearly occurred, they could not easily be ascribed to source-sink dynamics, ecological traps, habitat selection or other detailed ecological mechanisms. Nonetheless, such exchanges provide valuable information to guide management of dynamic systems.