Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of other musculoskeletal disorders, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background

Musculoskeletal disorders include more than 150 different conditions affecting joints, muscles, bones, ligaments, tendons, and the spine. To capture all health loss from death and disability due to musculoskeletal disorders, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) includes a residual musculoskeletal category for conditions other than osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, gout, low back pain, and neck pain. This category is called other musculoskeletal disorders and includes, for example, systemic lupus erythematosus and spondylopathies. We provide updated estimates of the prevalence, mortality, and disability attributable to other musculoskeletal disorders and forecasted prevalence to 2050.

Methods

Prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using data from 68 sources across 23 countries from which subtraction of cases of rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis, low back pain, neck pain, and gout from the total number of cases of musculoskeletal disorders was possible. Data were analysed with Bayesian meta-regression models to estimate prevalence by year, age, sex, and location. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence and disability weights. Mortality attributed to other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated using vital registration data. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 by regressing prevalence estimates from 1990 to 2020 with Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by population forecasts.

Findings

Globally, 494 million (95% uncertainty interval 431-564) people had other musculoskeletal disorders in 2020, an increase of 123·4% (116·9-129·3) in total cases from 221 million (192-253) in 1990. Cases of other musculoskeletal disorders are projected to increase by 115% (107-124) from 2020 to 2050, to an estimated 1060 million (95% UI 964-1170) prevalent cases in 2050; most regions were projected to have at least a 50% increase in cases between 2020 and 2050. The global age-standardised prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was 47·4% (44·9-49·4) higher in females than in males and increased with age to a peak at 65-69 years in male and female sexes. In 2020, other musculoskeletal disorders was the sixth ranked cause of YLDs globally (42·7 million [29·4-60·0]) and was associated with 83 100 deaths (73 600-91 600).

Interpretation

Other musculoskeletal disorders were responsible for a large number of global YLDs in 2020. Until individual conditions and risk factors are more explicitly quantified, policy responses to this burden remain a challenge. Temporal trends and geographical differences in estimates of non-fatal disease burden should not be overinterpreted as they are based on sparse, low-quality data.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Failure of cartilage regeneration: emerging hypotheses and related therapeutic strategies

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a disabling condition that affects billions of people worldwide and places a considerable burden on patients and on society owing to its prevalence and economic cost. As cartilage injuries are generally associated with the progressive onset of OA, robustly effective approaches for cartilage regeneration are necessary. Despite extensive research, technical development and clinical experimentation, no current surgery-based, material-based, cell-based or drug-based treatment can reliably restore the structure and function of hyaline cartilage. This paucity of effective treatment is partly caused by a lack of fundamental understanding of why articular cartilage fails to spontaneously regenerate. Thus, research studies that investigate the mechanisms behind the cartilage regeneration processes and the failure of these processes are critical to instruct decisions about patient treatment or to support the development of next-generation therapies for cartilage repair and OA prevention. This Review provides a synoptic and structured analysis of the current hypotheses about failure in cartilage regeneration, and the accompanying therapeutic strategies to overcome these hurdles, including some current or potential approaches to OA therapy.

Evidence of Coronavirus (CoV) Pathogenesis and Emerging Pathogen SARS-CoV-2 in the Nervous System: A Review on Neurological Impairments and Manifestations

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is an issue of global significance that has taken the lives of many across the world. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the virus responsible for its pathogenesis. The pulmonary manifestations of COVID-19 have been well described in the literature. Initially, it was thought to be limited to the respiratory system; however, we now recognize that COVID-19 also affects several other organs, including the nervous system. Two similar human coronaviruses (CoV) that cause severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV-1) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS-CoV) are also known to cause disease in the nervous system. The neurological manifestations of SARS-CoV-2 infection are growing rapidly, as evidenced by several reports. There are several mechanisms responsible for such manifestations in the nervous system. For instance, post-infectious immune-mediated processes, direct virus infection of the central nervous system (CNS), and virus-induced hyperinflammatory and hypercoagulable states are commonly involved. Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) and its variants, dysfunction of taste and smell, and muscle injury are numerous examples of COVID-19 PNS (peripheral nervous system) disease. Likewise, hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke, encephalitis, meningitis, encephalopathy acute disseminated encephalomyelitis, endothelialitis, and venous sinus thrombosis are some instances of COVID-19 CNS disease. Due to multifactorial and complicated pathogenic mechanisms, COVID-19 poses a large-scale threat to the whole nervous system. A complete understanding of SARS-CoV-2 neurological impairments is still lacking, but our knowledge base is rapidly expanding. Therefore, we anticipate that this comprehensive review will provide valuable insights and facilitate the work of neuroscientists in unfolding different neurological dimensions of COVID-19 and other CoV associated abnormalities.

Exosomal therapy-a new frontier in regenerative medicine

The recent advances in translational and nanomedicine have paved the way for developing the targeted drug delivery system at a greater pace among global researchers. On par with these technologies, exosomes act as a potential portal for cell-free drug delivery systems as these are bestowed with the native characteristics of the parent cell of origin. Exosomes, called extracellular vesicles (EcVs), are present in almost all cells, tissues, and body fluids. They help in intercellular signaling and maintains tissue homeostasis in the disease pathobiology. Researchers have characterized 9,769 proteins, 2,838 miRNAs, 3,408 mRNAs, and 1,116 lipids being present in exosomal cargo. The separation of exosomes from cells, tissues, and body fluids follow different patterned kinetics. Exosomes interact with the recipient cells through their surface receptor molecules and ligands and internalize within recipient cells through micropinocytosis and phagocytosis. Advancing technologies in regenerative medicine have facilitated the researchers to isolate exosomes from mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) as these cells are blessed with supreme regenerative potentiality in targeting a disease. Exosomal cargo is a key player in establishing the diagnosis and executing therapeutic role whilst regulating a disease process. Various in vitro studies have exhibited the safety, efficacy, and therapeutic potentiality of exosomes in various cancers, neurodegenerative, cardiovascular, and orthopedic diseases. This article throws light on the composition, therapeutic role, and regulatory potentials of exosomes with the widening of the horizon in the field of regenerative medicine.

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

FINDINGS

In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.

INTERPRETATION

The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

FUNDING

The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

Does the Source of Mesenchymal Stem Cell Have an Effect in the Management of Osteoarthritis of the Knee? Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

STUDY DESIGN

Meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the efficacy and safety of bone marrow(BM)-derived mesenchymal stem cell(MSCs) and adipose-derived(AD) MSCs in the management of osteoarthritis of knee from randomized controlled trials(RCTs) available in the literature.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted electronic database searche from PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library till May 2020 for RCTs analyzing the efficacy and safety of MSCs in management of osteoarthritis of knee. Visual Analog Score(VAS) for Pain, Western Ontario McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index(WOMAC), Lysholm Knee Scale(Lysholm), Whole-Organ Magnetic Resonance Imaging Score(WORMS), Knee Osteoarthritis Outcome Score(KOOS), and adverse events were the outcomes analyzed. Analysis was performed in R platform using OpenMeta[Analyst] software.

RESULTS

Nineteen studies involving 811 patients were included for analysis. None of the studies compared the source of MSCs for osteoarthritis of knee and results were obtained by pooled data analysis of both sources. At 6 months, AD-MSCs showed significantly better VAS(P<0.001,P=0.069) and WOMAC(P=0.134,P=0.441) improvement than BM-MSCs, respectively, compared to controls. At 1 year, AD-MSCs outperformed BM-MSCs compared to their control in measures like WOMAC(P=0.007,P=0.150), KOOS(P<0.001;P=0.658), and WORMS(P<0.001,P=0.041), respectively. Similarly at 24 months, AD-MSCs showed significantly better Lysholm score(P=0.037) than BM-MSCs(P=0.807) although VAS improvement was better with BM-MSCs at 24 months(P<0.001). There were no significant adverse events with either of the MSCs compared to their controls.

CONCLUSION

Our analysis establishes the efficacy, safety, and superiority of AD-MSC transplantation, compared to BM-MSC, in the management of osteoarthritis of knee from available literature. Further RCTs are needed to evaluate them together with standardized doses.

Is Endoscopic Discectomy the Next Gold Standard in the Management of Lumbar Disc Disease? Systematic Review and Superiority Analysis

STUDY DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES

We performed this meta-analysis to evaluate whether endoscopic discectomy (ED) shows superiority compared with the current gold standard of microdiscectomy (MD) in management of lumbar disc disease.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted independent and duplicate electronic database search including PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library from 1990 till April 2020 for studies comparing ED and MD in the management of lumbar disc disease. Analysis was performed in R platform using OpenMeta[Analyst] software.

RESULTS

We included 27 studies, including 11 randomized controlled trials (RCTs), 7 nonrandomized prospective, and 9 retrospective studies involving 4018 patients in the meta-analysis. We stratified the results based on the study design. Considering the heterogeneity in some results between study designs, we weighed our conclusion essentially based on results of RCTs. On analyzing the RCTs, superiority was established at 95% confidence interval for ED compared with MD in terms of functional outcomes like Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) score (P = .008), duration of surgery (P = .023), and length of hospital stay (P < .001) although significant heterogeneity was noted. Similarly, noninferiority to MD was established by ED in other outcomes like visual analogue scale score for back pain (P = .860) and leg pain (P = .495), MacNab classification (P = .097), recurrences (P = .993), reoperations (P = .740), and return-to-work period (P = .748).

CONCLUSION

Our meta-analysis established the superiority of endoscopic discectomy in outcome measures like ODI score, duration of surgery, overall complications, length of hospital stay and noninferiority in other measures analyzed. With recent advances in the field of ED, the procedure has the potential to take over the place of MD as the gold standard of care in management of lumbar disc disease.

Nanofat: A therapeutic paradigm in regenerative medicine

Adipose tissue is a compact and well-organized tissue containing a heterogeneous cellular population of progenitor cells, including mesenchymal stromal cells. Due to its availability and accessibility, adipose tissue is considered a "stem cell depot." Adipose tissue products possess anti-inflammatory, anti-fibrotic, anti-apoptotic, and immunomodulatory effects. Nanofat, being a compact bundle of stem cells with regenerative and tissue remodeling potential, has potential in translational and regenerative medicine. Considering the wide range of applicability of its reconstructive and regenerative potential, the applications of nanofat can be used in various disciplines. Nanofat behaves on the line of adipose tissue-derived mesenchymal stromal cells. At the site of injury, these stromal cells initiate a site-specific reparative response comprised of remodeling of the extracellular matrix, enhanced and sustained angiogenesis, and immune system modulation. These properties of stromal cells provide a platform for the usage of regenerative medicine principles in curbing various diseases. Details about nanofat, including various preparation methods, characterization, delivery methods, evidence on practical applications, and ethical concerns are included in this review. However, appropriate guidelines and preparation protocols for its optimal use in a wide range of clinical applications have yet to be standardized.

The Association between Gut Microbiota and Osteoarthritis: Does the Disease Begin in the Gut?

Some say that all diseases begin in the gut. Interestingly, this concept is actually quite old, since it is attributed to the Ancient Greek physician Hippocrates, who proposed the hypothesis nearly 2500 years ago. The continuous breakthroughs in modern medicine have transformed our classic understanding of the gastrointestinal tract (GIT) and human health. Although the gut microbiota (GMB) has proven to be a core component of human health under standard metabolic conditions, there is now also a strong link connecting the composition and function of the GMB to the development of numerous diseases, especially the ones of musculoskeletal nature. The symbiotic microbes that reside in the gastrointestinal tract are very sensitive to biochemical stimuli and may respond in many different ways depending on the nature of these biological signals. Certain variables such as nutrition and physical modulation can either enhance or disrupt the equilibrium between the various species of gut microbes. In fact, fat-rich diets can cause dysbiosis, which decreases the number of protective bacteria and compromises the integrity of the epithelial barrier in the GIT. Overgrowth of pathogenic microbes then release higher quantities of toxic metabolites into the circulatory system, especially the pro-inflammatory cytokines detected in osteoarthritis (OA), thereby promoting inflammation and the initiation of many disease processes throughout the body. Although many studies link OA with GMB perturbations, further research is still needed.

Current evidence on mesenchymal stem cell therapy for traumatic spinal cord injury: systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AIMS

The authors aim to analyze the evidence in the literature regarding the efficacy and safety of mesenchymal stem cell (MSC) therapy in human subjects with traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI) and identify its potential role in the management of SCI.

METHODS

The authors conducted independent and duplicate searches of electronic databases, including PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library, until May 2020 for studies analyzing the efficacy and safety of stem cell therapy for SCI. American Spine Injury Association (ASIA) impairment scale (AIS) grade improvement, ASIA sensorimotor score, activities of daily living score, residual urine volume, bladder function improvement, somatosensory evoked potential (SSEP) improvement and adverse reactions were the outcomes analyzed. Analysis was performed in R platform using OpenMeta[Analyst] software.

RESULTS

Nineteen studies involving 670 patients were included for analysis. On analysis, the intervention group showed statistically significant improvement in AIS grade (P < 0.001), ASIA sensory score (P < 0.017), light touch (P < 0.001), pinprick (P = 0.046), bladder function (P = 0.012), residual urine volume (P = 0.023) and SSEP (P = 0.002). However, no significant difference was noted in motor score (P = 0.193) or activities of daily living score (P = 0.161). Although the intervention group had a significant increase in complications (P < 0.001), no serious or permanent adverse events were reported. On subgroup analysis, low concentration of MSCs (<5 × 107 cells) and initial AIS grade A presentation showed significantly better outcomes than their counterparts.

CONCLUSIONS

The authors' analysis establishes the efficacy and safety of MSC transplantation in terms of improvement in AIS grade, ASIA sensory score, bladder function and electrophysiological parameters like SSEP compared with controls, without major adverse events. However, further research is needed to standardize dose, timing, route and source of MSCs used for transplantation.

Translational products of adipose tissue-derived mesenchymal stem cells: Bench to bedside applications

With developments in the field of tissue engineering and regenerative medicine, the use of biological products for the treatment of various disorders has come into the limelight among researchers and clinicians. Among all the available biological tissues, research and exploration of adipose tissue have become more robust. Adipose tissue engineering aims to develop by-products and their substitutes for their regenerative and immunomodulatory potential. The use of biodegradable scaffolds along with adipose tissue products has a major role in cellular growth, proliferation, and differentiation. Adipose tissue, apart from being the powerhouse of energy storage, also functions as the largest endocrine organ, with the release of various adipokines. The progenitor cells among the heterogeneous population in the adipose tissue are of paramount importance as they determine the capacity of regeneration of these tissues. The results of adipose-derived stem-cell assisted fat grafting to provide numerous growth factors and adipokines that improve vasculogenesis, fat graft integration, and survival within the recipient tissue and promote the regeneration of tissue are promising. Adipose tissue gives rise to various by-products upon processing. This article highlights the significance and the usage of various adipose tissue by-products, their individual characteristics, and their clinical applications.

Benchmarking for strategic maintenance quality improvement

Points out that the concepts of total productive maintenance (TPM) were formulated by combining the principles of total quality control (TQC) and maintenance engineering. Claims that the theory of TPM is not yet exhaustive. Proposes a model called “strategic maintenance quality engineering” (SMQE) to make the theory of TPM exhaustive. Deals with the last phase of SMQE which envisages the evaluation of each cycle of SMQE performance. Applies benchmarking with suitable modifications to carry out the last phase of SMQE. Presents the salient features of pilot implementation study conducted in two companies. Suggests that the use of information technology (IT) for benchmarking SMQE would aid in improving strategic maintenance quality more effectively.

Advancing Regenerative Cellular Therapies in Non-Scarring Alopecia

Alopecia or baldness is a common diagnosis in clinical practice. Alopecia can be scarring or non-scarring, diffuse or patchy. The most prevalent type of alopecia is non-scarring alopecia, with the majority of cases being androgenetic alopecia (AGA) or alopecia areata (AA). AGA is traditionally treated with minoxidil and finasteride, while AA is treated with immune modulators; however, both treatments have significant downsides. These drawbacks compel us to explore regenerative therapies that are relatively devoid of adverse effects. A thorough literature review was conducted to explore the existing proven and experimental regenerative treatment modalities in non-scarring alopecia. Multiple treatment options compelled us to classify them into growth factor-rich and stem cell-rich. The growth factor-rich group included platelet-rich plasma, stem cell-conditioned medium, exosomes and placental extract whereas adult stem cells (adipose-derived stem cell-nano fat and stromal vascular fraction; bone marrow stem cell and hair follicle stem cells) and perinatal stem cells (umbilical cord blood-derived mesenchymal stem cells (hUCB-MSCs), Wharton jelly-derived MSCs (WJ-MSCs), amniotic fluid-derived MSCs (AF-MSCs), and placental MSCs) were grouped into the stem cell-rich group. Because of its regenerative and proliferative capabilities, MSC lies at the heart of regenerative cellular treatment for hair restoration. A literature review revealed that both adult and perinatal MSCs are successful as a mesotherapy for hair regrowth. However, there is a lack of standardization in terms of preparation, dose, and route of administration. To better understand the source and mode of action of regenerative cellular therapies in hair restoration, we have proposed the "À La Mode Classification". In addition, available evidence-based cellular treatments for hair regrowth have been thoroughly described.

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

BACKGROUND

Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres.

METHODS

This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low-middle-income countries.

RESULTS

In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of 'single-use' consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low-middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia.

CONCLUSION

This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high- and low-middle-income countries.

Comparative effectiveness of adipose-derived mesenchymal stromal cells in the management of knee osteoarthritis: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common joint disorder, is associated with an increasing socioeconomic impact owing to the ageing population.

AIM

To analyze and compare the efficacy and safety of bone-marrow-derived mesenchymal stromal cells (BM-MSCs) and adipose tissue-derived MSCs (AD-MSCs) in knee OA management from published randomized controlled trials (RCTs).

METHODS

Independent and duplicate electronic database searches were performed, including PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library, until August 2021 for RCTs that analyzed the efficacy and safety of AD-MSCs and BM-MSCs in the management of knee OA. The visual analog scale (VAS) score for pain, Western Ontario McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC), Lysholm score, Tegner score, magnetic resonance observation of cartilage repair tissue score, knee osteoarthritis outcome score (KOOS), and adverse events were analyzed. Analysis was performed on the R-platform using OpenMeta (Analyst) software. Twenty-one studies, involving 936 patients, were included. Only one study compared the two MSC sources without patient randomization; hence, the results of all included studies from both sources were pooled, and a comparative critical analysis was performed.

RESULTS

At six months, both AD-MSCs and BM-MSCs showed significant VAS improvement (P = 0.015, P = 0.012); this was inconsistent at 1 year for BM-MSCs (P < 0.001, P = 0.539), and AD-MSCs outperformed BM-MSCs compared to controls in measures such as WOMAC (P < 0.001, P = 0.541), Lysholm scores (P = 0.006; P = 0.933), and KOOS (P = 0.002; P = 0.012). BM-MSC-related procedures caused significant adverse events (P = 0.003) compared to AD-MSCs (P = 0.673).

CONCLUSION

Adipose tissue is superior to bone marrow because of its safety and consistent efficacy in improving pain and functional outcomes. Future trials are urgently warranted to validate our findings and reach a consensus on the ideal source of MSCs for managing knee OA.

Impact of the Process Variables on the Yield of Mesenchymal Stromal Cells from Bone Marrow Aspirate Concentrate

Human bone marrow (BM) has been highlighted as a promising source of mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) containing various growth factors and cytokines that can be potentially utilized in regenerative procedures involving cartilage and bone. However, the proportion of MSCs in the nucleated cell population of BM is only around 0.001% to 0.01% thereby making the harvesting and processing technique crucial for obtaining optimal results upon its use in various regenerative processes. Although several studies in the literature have given encouraging results on the utility of BM aspiration concentrate (BMAC) in various regenerative procedures, there is a lack of consensus concerning the harvesting variables such as choice of anesthetic agent to be used, site of harvest, size of the syringe to be used, anticoagulant of choice, and processing variables such as centrifugation time, and speed. In this review article, we aim to discuss the variables in the harvesting and processing technique of BMAC and their impact on the yield of MSCs in the final concentrate obtained from them.

Fragility Analysis of Statistically Significant Outcomes of Randomized Control Trials in Spine Surgery: A Systematic Review

STUDY DESIGN

Systematic review.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to assess the robustness of statistically significant outcomes from randomized control trials (RCTs) in spine surgery using Fragility Index (FI) which is a novel metric measuring the number of events upon which statistical significance of the outcome depends.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

Many trials in Spine surgery were characterized by fewer outcome events along with small sample size. FI helps us identify the robustness of the results from such studies with statistically significant dichotomous outcomes.

METHODS

We conducted independent and in duplicate, a systematic review of published RCTs in spine surgery from PubMed Central, Embase, and Cochrane Database. RCTs with 1:1 prospective study design and reporting statistically significant dichotomous primary or secondary outcomes were included. FI was calculated for each RCT and its correlation with various factors was analyzed.

RESULTS

Seventy trials met inclusion criteria with a median sample size of 133 (interquartile range [IQR]: 80-218) and median reported events per trial was 38 (IQR: 13-94). The median FI score was 2 (IQR: 0-5), which means if we switch two patients from nonevent to event, the statistical significance of the outcome is lost. The FI score was less than the number of patients lost to follow-up in 28 of 70 trials. The FI score was found to positively correlated with sample size (r = 0.431, P = 0.001), total number of outcome events (r = 0.305, P = 0.01) while negatively correlated with P value (r = -0.392, P = 0.001). Funding, journal impact-factor, risk of bias domains, and year of publication did not have a significant correlation.

CONCLUSION

Statistically significant dichotomous outcomes reported in spine surgery RCTs are more often fragile and outcomes of the patients lost to follow-up could have changed the significance of results and hence it needs caution before transcending their results into clinical application. The addition of FI in routine reporting of RCTs would guide readers on the robustness of the statistical significance of outcomes. RCTs with FI ≥5 without any patient lost to follow-up can be considered to have clinically robust results.Level of Evidence: 1.

Design of total failure mode and effects analysis programme

Failure prevention is recognised as one of the major enablers of attaining continuous quality improvement in total quality management (TQM) projects. Theoreticians have been propagating the employability of failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) as the technique for identifying and rectifying failures in achieving continuous quality improvement. However, FMEA does not facilitate holistic failure prevention and suffers from certain deficiencies. Hence a modified and improved technique named as total failure mode and effects analysis (TFMEA) has been proposed in this paper. Its design details, implementation procedure and practicality are presented in the paper. The article is concluded by suggesting that future researchers can work towards developing change management strategies for successfully implementing TFMEA in organisations.