Worldwide trends in body-mass index, underweight, overweight, and obesity from 1975 to 2016: a pooled analysis of 2416 population-based measurement studies in 128·9 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults.

METHODS

We pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5-19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5-19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity).

FINDINGS

Regional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (-0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval -0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69-1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64-1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m2 per decade (-0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m2 per decade (0·50-1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4-1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8-6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5-1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7-9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0-12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8-10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4-19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3-14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7-29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5-38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44-117) million girls and 117 (70-178) million boys worldwide were moderately or severely underweight. In the same year, 50 (24-89) million girls and 74 (39-125) million boys worldwide were obese.

INTERPRETATION

The rising trends in children's and adolescents' BMI have plateaued in many high-income countries, albeit at high levels, but have accelerated in parts of Asia, with trends no longer correlated with those of adults.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme.

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants

BACKGROUND

Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries.

METHODS

We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m(2) [underweight], 18·5 kg/m(2) to <20 kg/m(2), 20 kg/m(2) to <25 kg/m(2), 25 kg/m(2) to <30 kg/m(2), 30 kg/m(2) to <35 kg/m(2), 35 kg/m(2) to <40 kg/m(2), ≥40 kg/m(2) [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue.

FINDINGS

We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m(2) (95% credible interval 21·3-22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m(2) (24·0-24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m(2) (21·7-22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m(2) (24·2-24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m(2) in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m(2) (28·6-29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m(2) (21·4-22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m(2) (31·5-32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5-17·4) to 8·8% (7·4-10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6-17·9) to 9·7% (8·3-11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8-29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9-29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4-4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7-12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1-7·8) to 14·9% (13·6-16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0-2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4-5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m(2)). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46-0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3-1·9) in women.

INTERPRETATION

If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, Grand Challenges Canada.

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants

BACKGROUND

One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes.

METHODS

We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.

FINDINGS

We used data from 751 studies including 4,372,000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.

INTERPRETATION

Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants

BACKGROUND

Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30-79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age.

FINDINGS

The number of people aged 30-79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306-359) million women and 317 (292-344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584-668) million women and 652 (604-698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55-62) of women and 49% (46-52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43-51) of women and 38% (35-41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20-27) for women and 18% (16-21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings.

FUNDING

WHO.

Worldwide trends in blood pressure from 1975 to 2015: a pooled analysis of 1479 population-based measurement studies with 19·1 million participants

BACKGROUND

Raised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher.

METHODS

For this analysis, we pooled national, subnational, or community population-based studies that had measured blood pressure in adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure.

FINDINGS

We pooled 1479 studies that had measured the blood pressures of 19·1 million adults. Global age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure in 2015 was 127·0 mm Hg (95% credible interval 125·7-128·3) in men and 122·3 mm Hg (121·0-123·6) in women; age-standardised mean diastolic blood pressure was 78·7 mm Hg (77·9-79·5) for men and 76·7 mm Hg (75·9-77·6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24·1% (21·4-27·1) in men and 20·1% (17·8-22·5) in women in 2015. Mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure decreased substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia Pacific countries, moving these countries from having some of the highest worldwide blood pressure in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure also decreased in women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East, and north Africa, but the estimated trends in these super-regions had larger uncertainty than in high-income super-regions. By contrast, mean blood pressure might have increased in east and southeast Asia, south Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, central and eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and south Asia had the highest blood pressure levels. Prevalence of raised blood pressure decreased in high-income and some middle-income countries; it remained unchanged elsewhere. The number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1·13 billion in 2015, with the increase largely in low-income and middle-income countries. The global increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure is a net effect of increase due to population growth and ageing, and decrease due to declining age-specific prevalence.

INTERPRETATION

During the past four decades, the highest worldwide blood pressure levels have shifted from high-income countries to low-income countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to opposite trends, while blood pressure has been persistently high in central and eastern Europe.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5-19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median).

FINDINGS

From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness.

INTERPRETATION

The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union.

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities1,2. This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity3-6. Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.

CKD Prevalence Varies across the European General Population

CKD prevalence estimation is central to CKD management and prevention planning at the population level. This study estimated CKD prevalence in the European adult general population and investigated international variation in CKD prevalence by age, sex, and presence of diabetes, hypertension, and obesity. We collected data from 19 general-population studies from 13 European countries. CKD stages 1-5 was defined as eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2), as calculated by the CKD-Epidemiology Collaboration equation, or albuminuria >30 mg/g, and CKD stages 3-5 was defined as eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) CKD prevalence was age- and sex-standardized to the population of the 27 Member States of the European Union (EU27). We found considerable differences in both CKD stages 1-5 and CKD stages 3-5 prevalence across European study populations. The adjusted CKD stages 1-5 prevalence varied between 3.31% (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 3.30% to 3.33%) in Norway and 17.3% (95% CI, 16.5% to 18.1%) in northeast Germany. The adjusted CKD stages 3-5 prevalence varied between 1.0% (95% CI, 0.7% to 1.3%) in central Italy and 5.9% (95% CI, 5.2% to 6.6%) in northeast Germany. The variation in CKD prevalence stratified by diabetes, hypertension, and obesity status followed the same pattern as the overall prevalence. In conclusion, this large-scale attempt to carefully characterize CKD prevalence in Europe identified substantial variation in CKD prevalence that appears to be due to factors other than the prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, and obesity.

Interleukin-6 and C-reactive protein, successful aging, and mortality: the PolSenior study

BACKGROUND

In the elderly, chronic low-grade inflammation (inflammaging) is a risk factor for the development of aging-related diseases and frailty. Using data from several thousand Eastern Europeans aged 65 years and older, we investigated whether the serum levels of two proinflammatory factors, interleukin-6 (IL-6) and C-reactive protein (CRP), were associated with physical and cognitive performance, and could predict mortality in successfully aging elderly.

RESULTS

IL-6 and CRP levels systematically increased in an age-dependent manner in the entire study group (IL-6: n = 3496 individuals, p < 0.001 and CRP: n = 3632, p = 0.003), and in the subgroup of successfully aging individuals who had never been diagnosed with cardiovascular disease, myocardial infarction, stroke, type 2 diabetes, or cancer, and had a Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) score ≥24 and a Katz Activities of Daily Living (ADL) score ≥5 (IL-6: n = 1258, p < 0.001 and CRP: n = 1312, p < 0.001). In the subgroup of individuals suffering from aging-related diseases/disability, only IL-6 increased with age (IL-6: n = 2238, p < 0.001 and CRP: n = 2320, p = 0.249). IL-6 and CRP levels were lower in successfully aging individuals than in the remaining study participants (both p < 0.001). Higher IL-6 and CRP levels were associated with poorer physical performance (lower ADL score) and poorer cognitive performance (lower MMSE score) (both p < 0.001). This association remained significant after adjusting for age, gender, BMI, lipids, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and smoking status. Longer survival was associated with lower concentrations of IL-6 and CRP not only in individuals with aging-related diseases/disability (HR = 1.063 per each pg/mL, 95 % CI: 1.052-1.074, p < 0.001 and HR = 1.020 per each mg/L, 95 % CI: 1.015-1.025, p < 0.001, respectively) but also in the successfully aging subgroup (HR = 1.163 per each pg/mL, 95 % CI: 1.128-1.199, p < 0.001 and HR = 1.074 per each mg/L, 95 % CI: 1.047-1.100, p < 0.001, respectively). These associations remained significant after adjusting for age, gender, BMI, lipids and smoking status. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed similar results (all p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Both IL-6 and CRP levels were good predictors of physical and cognitive performance and the risk of mortality in both the entire elderly population and in successfully aging individuals.

NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC). A century of trends in adult human height

Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5-22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3-19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8-144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.

Decreased plasma adiponectin concentration in patients with essential hypertension

Adipocytes secrete several biologically active substances that are presumed to be involved in obesity-related hypertension. There are no reports that deal with the relationship between plasma adiponectin concentration and blood pressure (BP). To evaluate the role of adiponectin in essential hypertension 33 patients with essential hypertensive (EHP) (12 women, 21 men) and 33 body mass index-matched normotensive healthy subjects (NHS) (13 women, 20 men) were studied. In EHP plasma adiponectin concentration was significantly lower than in NHS (9.1 +/- 4.5 v 13.7 +/- 5.2 microg/mL, respectively). In all subjects a significant negative correlation was found between plasma adiponectin concentration and mean, systolic, and diastolic BP, suggesting that adiponectin contributes to the clinical course of essential hypertension.

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

BACKGROUND

Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents.

METHODS

For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5-19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence.

FINDINGS

We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9-10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes-gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both-occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls.

INTERPRETATION

The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme, EU.

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular risk-changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.

Effects of diabetes definition on global surveillance of diabetes prevalence and diagnosis: a pooled analysis of 96 population-based studies with 331,288 participants

BACKGROUND

Diabetes has been defined on the basis of different biomarkers, including fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-h plasma glucose in an oral glucose tolerance test (2hOGTT), and HbA1c. We assessed the effect of different diagnostic definitions on both the population prevalence of diabetes and the classification of previously undiagnosed individuals as having diabetes versus not having diabetes in a pooled analysis of data from population-based health examination surveys in different regions.

METHODS

We used data from 96 population-based health examination surveys that had measured at least two of the biomarkers used for defining diabetes. Diabetes was defined using HbA1c (HbA1c ≥6·5% or history of diabetes diagnosis or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs) compared with either FPG only or FPG-or-2hOGTT definitions (FPG ≥7·0 mmol/L or 2hOGTT ≥11·1 mmol/L or history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated diabetes prevalence, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights. We compared the prevalences of diabetes using different definitions graphically and by regression analyses. We calculated sensitivity and specificity of diabetes diagnosis based on HbA1c compared with diagnosis based on glucose among previously undiagnosed individuals (ie, excluding those with history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated sensitivity and specificity in each survey, and then pooled results using a random-effects model. We assessed the sources of heterogeneity of sensitivity by meta-regressions for study characteristics selected a priori.

FINDINGS

Population prevalence of diabetes based on FPG-or-2hOGTT was correlated with prevalence based on FPG alone (r=0·98), but was higher by 2-6 percentage points at different prevalence levels. Prevalence based on HbA1c was lower than prevalence based on FPG in 42·8% of age-sex-survey groups and higher in another 41·6%; in the other 15·6%, the two definitions provided similar prevalence estimates. The variation across studies in the relation between glucose-based and HbA1c-based prevalences was partly related to participants' age, followed by natural logarithm of per person gross domestic product, the year of survey, mean BMI, and whether the survey population was national, subnational, or from specific communities. Diabetes defined as HbA1c 6·5% or more had a pooled sensitivity of 52·8% (95% CI 51·3-54·3%) and a pooled specificity of 99·74% (99·71-99·78%) compared with FPG 7·0 mmol/L or more for diagnosing previously undiagnosed participants; sensitivity compared with diabetes defined based on FPG-or-2hOGTT was 30·5% (28·7-32·3%). None of the preselected study-level characteristics explained the heterogeneity in the sensitivity of HbA1c versus FPG.

INTERPRETATION

Different biomarkers and definitions for diabetes can provide different estimates of population prevalence of diabetes, and differentially identify people without previous diagnosis as having diabetes. Using an HbA1c-based definition alone in health surveys will not identify a substantial proportion of previously undiagnosed people who would be considered as having diabetes using a glucose-based test.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, US National Institutes of Health.

Ageing and plasma adiponectin concentration in apparently healthy males and females

OBJECTIVE

It is well known that ageing is associated with several hormonal alterations. However, the consequence of ageing on the endocrine function of adipose tissue is not fully elucidated. Adiponectin is a new anti-inflammatory protein secreted exclusively by adipocytes and plays a protective role against insulin resistance and atherosclerosis. Therefore, the aim of present study was to estimate plasma adiponectin concentration in apparently healthy elderly subjects.

SUBJECTS

Fifty-eight women and 67 men aged 20-93 years were included in this study. Subjects were divided into three groups: younger than 50 years, between 50 and 70 years and older than 70 years of age.

MEASUREMENTS

Plasma adiponectin concentration was estimated by an enzyme-linked immunosorbant assay in blood samples withdrawn in the morning after overnight fasting. In males plasma testosterone and dehydroepiandrostendione sulphate concentrations were assessed by a radioimmunoassay method.

RESULTS

Plasma adiponectin concentration only tended to be higher in all elderly subjects (above 70 years) than in the group of all subjects aged between 50 and 70 and the group younger than 50 years of age (12.8 +/- 5.7; 9.9 +/- 5.7 and 10.7 +/- 5.4 microg/ml, respectively). Plasma adiponectin concentration was of similar magnitude in female subjects of these three groups (11.2 +/- 5.7; 11.2 +/- 6.8 and 11.7 +/- 4.9 microg/ml, respectively). In contrast, males over 70 years old are characterized by significantly higher plasma adiponectin (14.0 +/- 5.4 microg/ml) concentration than males between 50 and 70 years of age (8.9 +/- 4.7 microg/ml, P < 0.01) and males younger than 50 years of age (9.6 +/- 5.7 microg/ml, P < 0.05). In the entire studied group a significant but weak, positive correlation was found between plasma adiponectin concentration and age (tau = 0.12; P = 0.04). Additionally, significant correlation was found between plasma adiponectin concentration and age in males when analysed separately (tau = 0.28; P = 0.0007). Such correlation was not significant in females (tau = -0.06; P = 0.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Plasma adiponectin concentration in females did not change significantly with age. In contrast to females, elderly males over 70 years of age are characterized by significantly higher plasma adiponectin concentration than younger ones.

Plasma adiponectin concentration before and after successful kidney transplantation

BACKGROUND

Adiponectin, a protein secreted exclusively by adipocytes, is presumed to be involved in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis and insulin resistance. An elevated plasma adiponectin concentration was found in ESRD patients on hemodialysis (HD). However, the role of kidneys in adiponectin biodegradation/elimination is unknown. Therefore, we assessed plasma adiponectin concentrations in ESRD patients before and after successful kidney transplantation.

METHODS

Among 44 hemodialyzed patients (29 men, 15 women; mean age 39 +/- 11 years; mean body mass index [BMI] 23.6 +/- 3.5 kg/m(2); mean duration of HD treatment before kidney transplantation 27 +/- 26 months), plasma adiponectin concentrations and insulin resistance indices (HOMA-R) were measured twice: immediately before kidney transplantation (Tx) and 1-2 days before patient discharge from the hospital with stable kidney transplant function (mean serum creatinine level 191 +/- 105 micromol/L). The control group consisted of 22 normotensive healthy subjects (12 men, 10 women).

RESULTS

Among uremic patients, before Tx, plasma adiponectin concentrations were significantly higher than in healthy subjects (20.8 +/- 8.3 vs 8.7 +/- 4.8 microg/mL; P <.001) After successful Tx, plasma adiponectin concentrations decreased significantly (20.8 +/- 8.3 vs 15.7 +/- 7.0 microg/mL before and after Tx, respectively; P <.001). Simultaneously, after successful kidney transplantation, an increase in HOMA-R was observed (1.01 +/- 0.61 vs 1.43 +/- 0.83; P =.002). However, changes in adiponectinemia did not significantly correlate with serum creatinine or HOMA-R.

CONCLUSION

The kidneys seem to play an important role in adiponectin biodegradation and/or elimination.

Gut microbiota, microinflammation, metabolic profile, and zonulin concentration in obese and normal weight subjects

The association between gut microbiota and circulating zonulin level, a marker of intestinal permeability, has not been studied yet. The aim of the study is the assessment of plasma zonulin, haptoglobin and proinflammatory cytokines (TNF- α and IL-6) levels in relation to composition of gut microbiota in obese and normal weight subjects. Circulating inflammation markers, such as TNF- α , sTNFR1, sTNFR2, IL-6, zonulin, and haptoglobin levels were measured and semiquantitative analysis of gut microbiota composition was carried out in 50 obese and 30 normal weight subjects without concomitant diseases. Higher circulating zonulin, TNF- α , sTNFR1, sTNFR2, and IL-6 levels were found in the obese subjects. Plasma zonulin level correlated positively with age (r = 0.43, P < 0.001), body mass (r = 0.30, P < 0.01), BMI (r = 0.33, P < 0.01), fat mass and fat percentage (r = 0.31, P < 0.01 and r = 0.23, P < 0.05, resp.). Positive correlations between bacterial colony count and sTNFR1 (r = 0.33, P < 0.01) and plasma zonulin (r = 0.26, P < 0.05) but not haptoglobin levels were found. Additionally, plasma zonulin level was proportional to daily energy intake (r = 0.27, P < 0.05) and serum glucose concentration (r = 0.18, P < 0.05) and inversely proportional to diet protein percentage (r = -0.23, P < 0.05). Gut microbiota-related systemic microinflammation in the obese is reflected by circulating zonulin level, a potential marker of interstitial permeability.

Medical, psychological and socioeconomic aspects of aging in Poland: assumptions and objectives of the PolSenior project

Both descriptive and longitudinal studies of aging are nowadays a subject of growing interest in different countries worldwide. However, in Poland and other Central-Eastern European countries, such comprehensive, nationally representative, multidimensional studies were never performed in the past in elderly population. The present paper describes the PolSenior project including its objectives, sample selection and structure, methods, fieldwork procedures and study flow. The aim of the project was to examine medical, psychological and socioeconomic aspects of aging in Poland. The research sample included 5695 respondents (2899 males and 2796 females) split into six equally sized age groups of elderly individuals (65-69 years, 70-74 years, 75-79 years, 80-84 years, 85-89 years, 90+years) and one group of subjects just about to enter old age (55-59 years). Subjects were recruited using three stage stratified, proportional draw. The response rate was 42% and ranged from 32% to 61% between provinces. The study consisted of three visits performed by trained nurses including questionnaire survey, comprehensive geriatric assessment and blood and urine sampling. The questionnaire consisted of medical and specific socioeconomic questions. The comprehensive geriatric assessment included blood pressure and anthropometric measurements, as well as selected scales and tests routinely used in the examination of elderly subjects. Blood and urine samples were collected from 4737 and 4526 individuals, respectively. More than 50 biochemical parameters were measured, and DNA was isolated and banked. In a selected group of 1018 subjects, a medical examination by a physician was performed. The self-rated health was lower in females than in males in age groups 70-84, but similar in individuals of both sexes aged 65-69 and 85 years. Besides providing data on health and functioning of elderly population, the PolSenior project aims to analyze interrelationships between different elements of health and social status, and between genetics and health status in advanced age. The results of the PolSenior project will facilitate prioritizing the state's public health and social policies in elderly population. Such a program provides also an excellent starting point for longitudinal studies and a basis for comparative analysis between Poland and other European countries or regions.

Loss of heterozygosity at chromosomes 8p, 9p, and 14q is associated with stage and grade of non-papillary renal cell carcinomas

In this study, 105 non-papillary renal cell carcinomas (RCCs) have been examined for allelic loss at the chromosome 8p12-21.1, 9p21, and 14q24.2-qter regions, each by two highly polymorphic microsatellites. Loss of heterozygosity (LOH) was detected at both chromosome 8p and 9p in 33 per cent of the cases and at chromosome 14q in 45 per cent of the tumours. A correlation of variables such as size, grade, and stage of tumours with these specific genetic alterations showed that loss of chromosomes 8p and 9p, and especially loss of chromosome 14q regions, is significantly associated with a higher grade of tumour and the combined LOH at these chromosomal sites with advanced tumour stage. These genetic alterations did not show any correlation with the size of non-papillary RCCs. This study suggests that genetic markers at the above-mentioned chromosomal sites can predict the clinical outcome of non-papillary RCCs.

Compliance with compression stockings in patients with chronic venous disorders

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this large survey was to evaluate non-compliance with compression stockings in chronic venous disorder (CVD) patients.

METHOD

A total of 16,770 CVD patients participated in this study.

RESULTS

Compression stockings were used by 25.6% of CVD patients and 46.6% of the patients were never prescribed compression therapy. Compression stocking use was found to increase with the clinical stage of CVD. The percentage of patients using compression stockings during control visits increased to 37.4%. Furthermore, 5.3% of the patients coming to control visits discontinued the use of compression stockings owing to high cost, sweating, itching, cosmetic reason, oedema exacerbation, exudation lesions of lower legs and application difficulty. Past episodes of vein thrombosis (OR = 0.80), of stroke (OR = 0.28) and of varicose veins surgery (OR = 0.28) were decreasing, while the management by a general practitioner was increasing the risk (OR = 1.36) of compression therapy cessation.

CONCLUSION

(1) Compression stockings are too rarely prescribed and often unaccepted at early stages of CVD; (2) The common reason for discontinuation of compression therapy is its high cost.

Significance of chromosome arm 14q loss in nonpapillary renal cell carcinomas

We examined 88 nonpapillary renal cell carcinomas for allelic loss at chromosome arm 14q and correlated the results to size, grade, and stage of these tumors. Fourteen highly polymorphic microsatellite markers on the long arm of chromosome 14 were used for deletion mapping. Loss of heterozygosity (LOH) at the smallest overlapping segment of 14q24.2-qter was seen in 42 of 88 tumors. There was no significant correlation between frequency of 14q LOH and size of tumors (P = 0.11). LOH was frequently seen in grade 2 and 3 tumors (55% and 73%, respectively) and in stage III and IV tumors (53% and 80%, respectively). We found a significant correlation between chromosome arm 14q LOH and nuclear grade (P < 0.001) and stage (P < 0.001) of tumors. These observations indicate the presence of a tumor-suppressor gene at chromosome segment 14q24.2-qter and demonstrate the usefulness of microsatellite analysis for assessing the possible clinical outcome of nonpapillary renal cell carcinomas.

Sclerostin: Intracellular mechanisms of action and its role in the pathogenesis of skeletal and vascular disorders

Sclerostin is a glycoprotein involved in the regulation of bone metabolism, exclusively secreted by osteocytes. It affects the activity of bone morphogenetic proteins (BMPs) and is an inhibitor of the Wnt/β-catenin metabolic pathway in bone cells. Osteocytes reduce the release of sclerostin in response to mechanical stimuli acting on bone, and thus promote the activation of osteogenic pathway Wnt/β-catenin in osteoblasts. This signaling pathway plays a key role in osteogenesis and bone turnover. Loss of sclerostin gene function is related to 3 different craniotubular hyperostosis processes: sclerosteosis, craniodiaphyseal dysplasia, and van Buchem disease. Additionally, experimental and clinical studies suggest that sclerostin may promote vascular calcification. Antibodies directed against sclerostin stimulate bone formation and represent a new therapeutic option in the treatment of diseases with increased bone resorption, such as osteoporosis and inflammatory diseases where there is generalized bone loss, periarticular osteoporosis, and cartilage damage, such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA), ankylosing spondylitis (AS), and glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis (GIO). Antibody use has the potential to offer new therapeutic approaches in the therapy of mineral and bone disorders resulting from chronic kidney disease (CKD-MBD) and vascular calcifications.

Calcification of coronary arteries and abdominal aorta in relation to traditional and novel risk factors of atherosclerosis in hemodialysis patients

BACKGROUND

Process of accelerated atherosclerosis specific for uremia increases cardiovascular risk in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and may be influenced by the different structure of arteries. The study assesses the influence of traditional and novel risk factors on calcification of coronary arteries (CAC) and abdominal aorta (AAC) in hemodialysis patients (HD).

METHODS

CAC and AAC were assessed by CT in 104 prevalent adult HD and 14 apparently healthy subjects with normal kidney function (control group). Mineral metabolism parameters, plasma levels of FGF-23, MGP, osteoprotegerin, osteopontin, fetuin-A, CRP, IL-6 and TNF-α were measured.

RESULTS

CAC and AAC (calcification score ≥ 1) were found in 76 (73.1%) and 83 (79.8%) HD respectively, more frequent than in the control group. In 7 HD with AAC no CAC were detected. The frequency and severity of calcifications increased with age. Both CAC and AAC were more frequently detected in diabetics (OR = 17.37 and 13.00, respectively). CAC score was significantly greater in males. CAC and AAC scores were correlated significantly with pack-years of smoking and plasma osteoprotegrin levels. However the independent contribution of plasma osteoprotegerin levels was not confirmed in multiple regression analysis. Age (OR = 1.13) and hemodialysis vintage (OR = 1.14) were the independent risk factor favoring the occurrence of CAC; while age (OR = 1.20) was the only predictor of AAC occurrence in HD.

CONCLUSIONS

1. AAC precedes the occurrence of CAC in HD patients. 2. The exposition to uremic milieu and systemic chronic microinflammation has more deteriorative effect on the CAC than the AAC.

The intrarenal vascular resistance parameters measured by duplex Doppler ultrasound shortly after kidney transplantation in patients with immediate, slow, and delayed graft function

BACKGROUND

Evaluation of pulsatility (PI) and resistive (RI) indexes by duplex Doppler ultrasound shortly after kidney transplantation reflects the exacerbation of interstitial edema. The aim of study was to characterize factors that influence PI and RI in patients with immediate (IGF), slow (SGF), or delayed (DGF) kidney graft function.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

PI and RI were measured in 200 transplanted patients at 2 to 4 days postoperatively. We excluded patients with acute rejection episodes within the first month. IGF, which was defined as serum creatinine <264 micromol/L at 3 days, SGF, which was defined as creatinine >264 micromol/L by day 3 with a maximum of one dialysis, and DGF, which was defined as more than 1 dialysis were observed in 33.3%, 41.5%, and 25.2% of patients, respectively. The examined donor parameters were age, hypotensive episodes, catecholamine infusion, central venous pressure, and glomerular filtration rate. The recipient factors were age, history of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, ischemic heart disease, and stroke. Additionally cold ischemia time (CIT), HLA mismatch, and PRA were analyzed.

RESULTS

The lowest PI and RI values were observed among patients with IGF (PI 1.37 [1.28 to 1.46]; RI 0.72 [0.69 to 0.74]); moderate values in SGF (PI 1.65 [1.52 to 1.78]; RI 0.78 [0.76 to 0.80]) and the highest values in DGF (PI 2.09 [1.83 to 2.35]; RI 0.83 [0.80 to 0.86]) differences that were highly significant. Hypotensive episodes and catecholamine infusion in the preharvest period had essential impacts on PI or RI values in the early posttransplant period. There was no significant correlation between PI or RI values and CIT. A slower ATN resolution was observed in DGF patients with higher PI values.

CONCLUSION

Ischemic injury, which occurred mainly prior to organ harvesting, played a dominant role determining intrarenal resistance in the early posttransplant period.