Risk analysis of metformin use in prostate cancer: a national population-based study

INTRODUCTION

Various approaches are required to prevent and treat heterogeneity-based prostate cancer. Here, we analyzed the anticancer effects of metformin, which has a good toxicity profile and is inexpensive.

METHOD

From January 2010 to December 2019, analysis was conducted retrospectively in a cohort from the National Health Insurance Service database. The wash-out period was set for cancer diagnosis in 2010 and 2011, and subjects (105,279) diagnosed with prostate cancer (ICD C61) from 2012 to 2014 were excluded The final subjects (105,216) were defined as the metformin administration group when they took metformin for 180 days or more from January 2012 to December 2019. The non-metformin group was defined as those who took less than 180 days from January 2012 to December 2019. The prevalence of prostate cancer according to metformin administration and the risk according to the cumulative duration of metformin were analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 105,216 people were included in this study, with 59,844 in the metformin group and 45,372 in the metformin non-administration group. When calculating HRs (Hazard Rate) according to the cumulative period of metformin administration, metformin administration period length was inversely associated with prostate cancer risk (Q2 HR = 0.791 95% CI: 0.773-0.81, Q3 HR = 0.634 95% CI: 0.62-0.649, Q4 HR = 0.571 95% CI: 0.558-0.585). HRs tended to decrease with the cumulative duration of metformin administration.

CONCLUSION

This study confirmed that prostate cancer risk decreased with increasing duration of metformin administration. Metformin should be considered as a new strategy in the treatment and prevention of prostate cancer characterized by heterogeneity.

Pitfalls and biases in neuroepidemiological studies of COVID-19 and the nervous system: a critical appraisal of the current evidence and future directions

BACKGROUND

Neurological manifestations frequently occur in individuals with COVID-19, manifesting during the acute phase, persisting beyond the resolution of acute symptoms, and appearing days or weeks after the initial onset of COVID-19 symptoms. However, predicting the incidence, course, and outcome of these neurological manifestations at the individual patient level remains challenging. Biases in study design and limitations in data collection may contribute to the inconsistency and limited validity of the reported findings. Herein, we focused on critically appraising pitfalls and biases of prior reports and provide guidance for improving the quality and standardization of future research. Patients with COVID-19 exhibit diverse demographic features, sociocultural backgrounds, lifestyle habits, and comorbidities, all of which can influence the severity and progression of the infection and its impact on other organ systems. Overlooked or undocumented comorbidities and related treatments may contribute to neurological sequelae, which may not solely be attributable to COVID-19. It is crucial to consider the potential side effects of vaccines in relation to neurological manifestations.

CONCLUSION

To investigate neurological manifestations of COVID-19, it is essential to employ valid and reliable diagnostic criteria and standard definitions of the factors of interest. Although population-based studies are lacking, well-defined inception cohorts, including hospitalized individuals, outpatients, and community residents, can serve as valuable compromises. These cohorts should be evaluated for the presence of common comorbidities, alongside documenting the primary non-neurological manifestations of the infectious disease. Lastly, patients with COVID-19 should be followed beyond the acute phase to assess the persistence, duration, and severity of neurological symptoms, signs, or diseases.

Global, regional, and national burden of osteoarthritis, 1990-2020 and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background

Osteoarthritis is the most common form of arthritis in adults, characterised by chronic pain and loss of mobility. Osteoarthritis most frequently occurs after age 40 years and prevalence increases steeply with age. WHO has designated 2021-30 the decade of healthy ageing, which highlights the need to address diseases such as osteoarthritis, which strongly affect functional ability and quality of life. Osteoarthritis can coexist with, and negatively effect, other chronic conditions. Here we estimate the burden of hand, hip, knee, and other sites of osteoarthritis across geographies, age, sex, and time, with forecasts of prevalence to 2050.

Methods

In this systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study, osteoarthritis prevalence in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 was estimated using data from population-based surveys from 26 countries for knee osteoarthritis, 23 countries for hip osteoarthritis, 42 countries for hand osteoarthritis, and US insurance claims for all of the osteoarthritis sites, including the other types of osteoarthritis category. The reference case definition was symptomatic, radiographically confirmed osteoarthritis. Studies using alternative definitions from the reference case definition (for example self-reported osteoarthritis) were adjusted to reference using regression models. Osteoarthritis severity distribution was obtained from a pooled meta-analysis of sources using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index. Final prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights to calculate years lived with disability (YLDs). Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model.

Findings

Globally, 595 million (95% uncertainty interval 535-656) people had osteoarthritis in 2020, equal to 7·6% (95% UI 6·8-8·4) of the global population, and an increase of 132·2% (130·3-134·1) in total cases since 1990. Compared with 2020, cases of osteoarthritis are projected to increase 74·9% (59·4-89·9) for knee, 48·6% (35·9-67·1) for hand, 78·6% (57·7-105·3) for hip, and 95·1% (68·1-135·0) for other types of osteoarthritis by 2050. The global age-standardised rate of YLDs for total osteoarthritis was 255·0 YLDs (119·7-557·2) per 100 000 in 2020, a 9·5% (8·6-10·1) increase from 1990 (233·0 YLDs per 100 000, 109·3-510·8). For adults aged 70 years and older, osteoarthritis was the seventh ranked cause of YLDs. Age-standardised prevalence in 2020 was more than 5·5% in all world regions, ranging from 5677·4 (5029·8-6318·1) per 100 000 in southeast Asia to 8632·7 (7852·0-9469·1) per 100 000 in high-income Asia Pacific. Knee was the most common site for osteoarthritis. High BMI contributed to 20·4% (95% UI -1·7 to 36·6) of osteoarthritis. Potentially modifiable risk factors for osteoarthritis such as recreational injury prevention and occupational hazards have not yet been explored in GBD modelling.

Interpretation

Age-standardised YLDs attributable to osteoarthritis are continuing to rise and will lead to substantial increases in case numbers because of population growth and ageing, and because there is no effective cure for osteoarthritis. The demand on health systems for care of patients with osteoarthritis, including joint replacements, which are highly effective for late stage osteoarthritis in hips and knees, will rise in all regions, but might be out of reach and lead to further health inequity for individuals and countries unable to afford them. Much more can and should be done to prevent people getting to that late stage.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.

Rapid weight gain in early life is associated with central precocious puberty in girls, not in boys - a nationwide population-based study in Korea

Objectives

This study aimed to investigate the effect of rapid weight gain (RWG) on the incidence of central precocious puberty (CPP) using nationwide population-based data.

Methods

A total of 253,967 children (101,841 boys and 152,126 girls) who underwent regular health consultations under the National Health Insurance Service from 2007 to 2010 were followed up until the age of 10 years for boys and 9 years for girls. We calculated differences in the weight Z-scores from 4-6 months to 9-12 months (infancy) and from 9-12 months to 18-24 months or 30-36 months (toddlerhood) using the lambda-mu-sigma method. The population was subdivided into four groups: RWGinf/tod (infancy > + 0.67 standard deviation score [SDS], toddlerhood > 0 SDS), RWGinf (infancy > + 0.67 SDS, toddlerhood < 0 SDS), RWGtod (toddlerhood > + 0.67 SDS), and control (no RWG). The diagnosis of CPP was based on the diagnostic codes of the International Classification of Diseases 10th revision and the prescription of gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonists. The cumulative risk of CPP based on age was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier survival curves, and the association between the RWG groups and CPP was assessed using multivariate logistic regression analysis.

Results

CPP was diagnosed in 268 boys and 9,225 girls. For the girls, the CPP-free probability was the highest in the control group, followed by the RWGtod, RWGinf, and RWGinf/tod groups (log-rank p < 0.001). However, the incidence of CPP did not vary significantly for the boys. Compared to the control group, the other groups had a higher risk of CPP in girls (RWGinf/tod: adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.35, 95%, confidence interval [95% CI] 1.13-1.62; RWGinf: aOR 1.25, 95% CI 1.13-1.38; and RWGtod: aOR 1.18, 95% CI 1.09-1.28).

Conclusions

This nationwide population-based study demonstrated that any RWG from birth to 3 years of age contributed to an increased risk of CPP in girls but not in boys. Girls who experienced RWG during both infancy and toddlerhood had the highest risk of developing CPP. These findings suggest that early detection and appropriate management of excessive weight gain in early life may be important for preventing CPP in girls.

Pregnancy Outcomes Associated With Biologic Agent Exposure in Patients With Several Rheumatic Diseases and Inflammatory Bowel Diseases

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to analyze pregnancy outcomes based on biologic agents use in women using the nationwide population-based database.

METHODS

The study used the claims database to identify women of childbearing age with several rheumatic (rheumatoid arthritis, juvenile idiopathic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, psoriatic arthritis) and inflammatory bowel diseases (Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis) who had pregnancy-related codes between January 2010 and December 2019. We analyzed live births and adverse pregnancy outcomes based on the previous use of biologics. We also stratified the patients according to duration of biologic agent exposure before pregnancy and the use of biologics during pregnancy to analyze the pregnancy outcomes by subgroups.

RESULTS

We identified 4,787 patients with pregnancy events. Among them, 1,034 (21.6%) used biologics before pregnancy. Live birth rate was not different between the biologics group and biologics naïve group (75.0% vs. 75.2%). Multivariate analyses showed that biologics use was associated with higher risk of intrauterine growth retardation (odds ratio [OR], 1.780) and lower risk of gestational diabetes mellitus (OR, 0.776) compared with biologics naïve. Biologics use during pregnancy was associated with higher risk of preterm delivery (OR, 1.859), preeclampsia/eclampsia (OR, 1.762), intrauterine growth retardation (OR, 3.487), and cesarean section (OR, 1.831), but lower risk of fetal loss (OR, 0.274) compared with biologics naïve.

CONCLUSIONS

Although there was no difference in live birth rate between the biologics group and biologics naïve group, biologics use seems to be associated with several adverse pregnancy outcomes, especially in patients with biologics during pregnancy. Therefore, patients with biologics during pregnancy need to be carefully observed for adverse pregnancy outcomes.

Intolerance of uncertainty across stress, anxiety, and depression among university students in Pakistan: A descriptive cross-sectional study

Background

The mental health issues due to COVID-19, such as intolerance of uncertainty (IOU), anxiety, stress, and depression, have attracted extensive attention from researchers. The challenges for Pakistani university students could be worse than developed countries due to the lack of online courses/programs and online mental health support provided by academic institutions. Therefore, the current study aims to assess the intolerance of uncertainty, depression, anxiety, and stress of Pakistani university students after the second wave of COVID-19 and the relationship among these constructs.

Methods

A convenience cross-sectional sampling method was used to collect data from university students in Pakistan between January 2021 and April 2022 via a structured online questionnaire. The Descriptive analysis focused on frequencies, percentages, mean, and standard deviation (SD) were calculated on IOU-12 and DASS-21. Covariance for the research model and confirmatory factor analyses fit indices for the IOU-12 and DASS-21 were analyzed by AMOS statistical packages.

Results

As expected, anxiety, depression, and stress persist among Pakistani university students. On average, they report mild to moderate mental health problems regarding anxiety, depression, stress, and intolerance of uncertainty. Our results indicate a strong positive relationship among the three emotional distress components - anxiety, depression, and stress. However, our results suggest no significant relationship between IOU and the three subcomponents of emotional distress (anxiety, depression, and stress).

Limitations

First, the cross-sectional survey design means we cannot conclude on the causal relations. Second, the self-report questionnaire embeds subjectivity issues. Last, the generalizability of the sample to the whole student population in Pakistan is limited, considering the sampling method.

Conclusion

This study expanded the current knowledge in the psychological health domain (intolerance of uncertainty, anxiety, depression, and stress) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In practice, higher education institutions should further mitigate university students' mental health issues. For researchers, our findings inspire future studies to delve into the relationship between IOU and mental health issues due to COVID-19 since our findings display contrary evidence for various reasons.

Global, regional, and national burden of low back pain, 1990-2020, its attributable risk factors, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background

Low back pain is highly prevalent and the main cause of years lived with disability (YLDs). We present the most up-to-date global, regional, and national data on prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021.

Methods

Population-based studies from 1980 to 2019 identified in a systematic review, international surveys, US medical claims data, and dataset contributions by collaborators were used to estimate the prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from 1990 to 2020, for 204 countries and territories. Low back pain was defined as pain between the 12th ribs and the gluteal folds that lasted a day or more; input data using alternative definitions were adjusted in a network meta-regression analysis. Nested Bayesian meta-regression models were used to estimate prevalence and YLDs by age, sex, year, and location. Prevalence was projected to 2050 by running a regression on prevalence rates using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying them by projected population estimates.

Findings

In 2020, low back pain affected 619 million (95% uncertainty interval 554-694) people globally, with a projection of 843 million (759-933) prevalent cases by 2050. In 2020, the global age-standardised rate of YLDs was 832 per 100 000 (578-1070). Between 1990 and 2020, age-standardised rates of prevalence and YLDs decreased by 10·4% (10·9-10·0) and 10·5% (11·1-10·0), respectively. A total of 38·8% (28·7-47·0) of YLDs were attributed to occupational factors, smoking, and high BMI.

Interpretation

Low back pain remains the leading cause of YLDs globally, and in 2020, there were more than half a billion prevalent cases of low back pain worldwide. While age-standardised rates have decreased modestly over the past three decades, it is projected that globally in 2050, more than 800 million people will have low back pain. Challenges persist in obtaining primary country-level data on low back pain, and there is an urgent need for more high-quality, primary, country-level data on both prevalence and severity distributions to improve accuracy and monitor change.

Funding

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Risk improvement and adverse kidney outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease: findings from KNOW-CKD

BACKGROUND

Many trials have attempted to slow the progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) by modifying specific risk factors, but without achieving satisfactory results. We aimed to evaluate the association between the degree of improvement in multiple risk factors and adverse kidney outcomes.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study of 839 patients with CKD G3-G4. The main predictors were the number of improved risk factors between baseline and year one as follows: a decrease in proteinuria, systolic blood pressure, phosphate, and uric acid, and an increase in hemoglobin and bicarbonate from the baseline status to out of the target range. The primary outcome was a composite one, including CKD progression (50% decline in eGFR or kidney replacement therapy) and all-cause death.

RESULTS

Patients whose risk factors eventually improved had more unfavorable baseline profiles of the six considered factors. During 3097.8 person-years of follow-up (median 3.5 years per patient), the composite outcome occurred in 48.0% of patients (incidence rate, 13.0 per 100 person-years). Compared with an improvement of no risk factors, the adjusted HRs (95% CI) for improvement of 1 and ≥ 2 risk factors were 0.96 (0.76-1.22) and 0.53 (0.37-0.75), respectively. The association was not affected by diabetic status or CKD severity. Among the risk factors, proteinuria accounted for the greatest contribution to CKD progression.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with CKD G3-G4, improvement in multiple factors was associated with a decreased risk of CKD progression, suggesting the importance of multifactorial risk management.

Global investments in pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: development assistance and domestic spending on health between 1990 and 2026

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted gaps in health surveillance systems, disease prevention, and treatment globally. Among the many factors that might have led to these gaps is the issue of the financing of national health systems, especially in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), as well as a robust global system for pandemic preparedness. We aimed to provide a comparative assessment of global health spending at the onset of the pandemic; characterise the amount of development assistance for pandemic preparedness and response disbursed in the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic; and examine expectations for future health spending and put into context the expected need for investment in pandemic preparedness.

METHODS

In this analysis of global health spending between 1990 and 2021, and prediction from 2021 to 2026, we estimated four sources of health spending: development assistance for health (DAH), government spending, out-of-pocket spending, and prepaid private spending across 204 countries and territories. We used the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)'s Creditor Reporting System (CRS) and the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database (GHED) to estimate spending. We estimated development assistance for general health, COVID-19 response, and pandemic preparedness and response using a keyword search. Health spending estimates were combined with estimates of resources needed for pandemic prevention and preparedness to analyse future health spending patterns, relative to need.

FINDINGS

In 2019, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, US$9·2 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·1-9·3) was spent on health worldwide. We found great disparities in the amount of resources devoted to health, with high-income countries spending $7·3 trillion (95% UI 7·2-7·4) in 2019; 293·7 times the $24·8 billion (95% UI 24·3-25·3) spent by low-income countries in 2019. That same year, $43·1 billion in development assistance was provided to maintain or improve health. The pandemic led to an unprecedented increase in development assistance targeted towards health; in 2020 and 2021, $1·8 billion in DAH contributions was provided towards pandemic preparedness in LMICs, and $37·8 billion was provided for the health-related COVID-19 response. Although the support for pandemic preparedness is 12·2% of the recommended target by the High-Level Independent Panel (HLIP), the support provided for the health-related COVID-19 response is 252·2% of the recommended target. Additionally, projected spending estimates suggest that between 2022 and 2026, governments in 17 (95% UI 11-21) of the 137 LMICs will observe an increase in national government health spending equivalent to an addition of 1% of GDP, as recommended by the HLIP.

INTERPRETATION

There was an unprecedented scale-up in DAH in 2020 and 2021. We have a unique opportunity at this time to sustain funding for crucial global health functions, including pandemic preparedness. However, historical patterns of underfunding of pandemic preparedness suggest that deliberate effort must be made to ensure funding is maintained.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units.

RESULTS

We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group.

CONCLUSIONS

As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.

The overlapping burden of the three leading causes of disability and death in sub-Saharan African children

Despite substantial declines since 2000, lower respiratory infections (LRIs), diarrhoeal diseases, and malaria remain among the leading causes of nonfatal and fatal disease burden for children under 5 years of age (under 5), primarily in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The spatial burden of each of these diseases has been estimated subnationally across SSA, yet no prior analyses have examined the pattern of their combined burden. Here we synthesise subnational estimates of the burden of LRIs, diarrhoea, and malaria in children under-5 from 2000 to 2017 for 43 sub-Saharan countries. Some units faced a relatively equal burden from each of the three diseases, while others had one or two dominant sources of unit-level burden, with no consistent pattern geographically across the entire subcontinent. Using a subnational counterfactual analysis, we show that nearly 300 million DALYs could have been averted since 2000 by raising all units to their national average. Our findings are directly relevant for decision-makers in determining which and targeting where the most appropriate interventions are for increasing child survival.

Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9-21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9-24·7), working (17·2, 15·2-19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2-17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6-33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4-84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4-89·0), working (33·8-82·8), and post-working (30·4-79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries.

INTERPRETATION

Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-18: a geospatial modelling study

BACKGROUND

More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels.

METHODS

We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution.

FINDINGS

Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000-257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution.

INTERPRETATION

Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The prevalence of onchocerciasis in Africa and Yemen, 2000-2018: a geospatial analysis

BACKGROUND

Onchocerciasis is a disease caused by infection with Onchocerca volvulus, which is transmitted to humans via the bite of several species of black fly, and is responsible for permanent blindness or vision loss, as well as severe skin disease. Predominantly endemic in parts of Africa and Yemen, preventive chemotherapy with mass drug administration of ivermectin is the primary intervention recommended for the elimination of its transmission.

METHODS

A dataset of 18,116 geo-referenced prevalence survey datapoints was used to model annual 2000-2018 infection prevalence in Africa and Yemen. Using Bayesian model-based geostatistics, we generated spatially continuous estimates of all-age 2000-2018 onchocerciasis infection prevalence at the 5 × 5-km resolution as well as aggregations to the national level, along with corresponding estimates of the uncertainty in these predictions.

RESULTS

As of 2018, the prevalence of onchocerciasis infection continues to be concentrated across central and western Africa, with the highest mean estimates at the national level in Ghana (12.2%, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5.0-22.7). Mean estimates exceed 5% infection prevalence at the national level for Cameroon, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, and South Sudan.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis suggests that onchocerciasis infection has declined over the last two decades throughout western and central Africa. Focal areas of Angola, Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Mali, Nigeria, South Sudan, and Uganda continue to have mean microfiladermia prevalence estimates exceeding 25%. At and above this level, the continuation or initiation of mass drug administration with ivermectin is supported. If national programs aim to eliminate onchocerciasis infection, additional surveillance or supervision of areas of predicted high prevalence would be warranted to ensure sufficiently high coverage of program interventions.

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.

METHODS

The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effects of Chronic Diseases on All-Cause Mortality in People with Mental Illness: A Retrospective Cohort Study Using the Korean National Health Insurance Service-Health Screening

The aim of this study was to compare mortality and the prevalence of chronic diseases between people with mental illness and the general population, and to explore which chronic diseases increase the risk of all-cause mortality, especially in people with mental illness. This study assessed data from the 2002-2019 Korean National Health Insurance Service-Health Screening sample cohort. Results revealed that all-cause mortality was higher in people with mental illness compared to people without mental illness (11.40% vs. 10.28%, p = 0.0022). Several chronic diseases have a higher prevalence and risk of all-cause mortality in individuals with mental illness than the general population. Among people with the same chronic disease, those with mental disorders had a higher risk of all-cause mortality. Cancer (aHR 2.55, 95% CI 2.488-2.614), liver cirrhosis (aHR 2.198, 95% CI 2.086-2.316), and arrhythmia (aHR 1.427, 95% CI 1.383-1.472) were the top three chronic diseases that increased the risk of all-cause mortality in people with mental illness compared to people without mental illness. Our results suggest the need for more attention to chronic diseases for people with mental illness in clinical practice by explaining the effect of chronic disease on all-cause mortality in people with mental illness.

Adolescent transport and unintentional injuries: a systematic analysis using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Globally, transport and unintentional injuries persist as leading preventable causes of mortality and morbidity for adolescents. We sought to report comprehensive trends in injury-related mortality and morbidity for adolescents aged 10–24 years during the past three decades.

Methods

Using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2019 Study, we analysed mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributed to transport and unintentional injuries for adolescents in 204 countries. Burden is reported in absolute numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population by sex, age group (10–14, 15–19, and 20–24 years), and sociodemographic index (SDI) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We report percentage changes in deaths and DALYs between 1990 and 2019.

Findings

In 2019, 369 061 deaths (of which 214 337 [58%] were transport related) and 31·1 million DALYs (of which 16·2 million [52%] were transport related) among adolescents aged 10–24 years were caused by transport and unintentional injuries combined. If compared with other causes, transport and unintentional injuries combined accounted for 25% of deaths and 14% of DALYs in 2019, and showed little improvement from 1990 when such injuries accounted for 26% of adolescent deaths and 17% of adolescent DALYs. Throughout adolescence, transport and unintentional injury fatality rates increased by age group. The unintentional injury burden was higher among males than females for all injury types, except for injuries related to fire, heat, and hot substances, or to adverse effects of medical treatment. From 1990 to 2019, global mortality rates declined by 34·4% (from 17·5 to 11·5 per 100 000) for transport injuries, and by 47·7% (from 15·9 to 8·3 per 100 000) for unintentional injuries. However, in low-SDI nations the absolute number of deaths increased (by 80·5% to 42 774 for transport injuries and by 39·4% to 31 961 for unintentional injuries). In the high-SDI quintile in 2010–19, the rate per 100 000 of transport injury DALYs was reduced by 16·7%, from 838 in 2010 to 699 in 2019. This was a substantially slower pace of reduction compared with the 48·5% reduction between 1990 and 2010, from 1626 per 100 000 in 1990 to 838 per 100 000 in 2010. Between 2010 and 2019, the rate of unintentional injury DALYs per 100 000 also remained largely unchanged in high-SDI countries (555 in 2010 vs 554 in 2019; 0·2% reduction). The number and rate of adolescent deaths and DALYs owing to environmental heat and cold exposure increased for the high-SDI quintile during 2010–19.

Interpretation

As other causes of mortality are addressed, inadequate progress in reducing transport and unintentional injury mortality as a proportion of adolescent deaths becomes apparent. The relative shift in the burden of injury from high-SDI countries to low and low–middle-SDI countries necessitates focused action, including global donor, government, and industry investment in injury prevention. The persisting burden of DALYs related to transport and unintentional injuries indicates a need to prioritise innovative measures for the primary prevention of adolescent injury.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A comprehensive examination of association between belief in vaccine misinformation and vaccination intention in the COVID-19 context

Misinformation about COVID-19 vaccines is widely available in the public communication environment. Exposure to the misinformation may increase perceived risk of and evoke negative emotions toward COVID-19 vaccines that may eventually reduce COVID-19 vaccination intentions. The negative influences of misinformation may vary by aspects of individuals' social networks. Expanding the reasoned action approach, we proposed a comprehensive model to examine the roles of misinformation beliefs, perceived risk, fear, worry, and social networks in explaining COVID-19 vaccination intentions. We tested the model using survey data of South Korean adults, collected when the Korean government launched its nationwide vaccination program in April 2021 (n = 744). The results from our step-by-step path analyses indicated that COVID-19 vaccination intentions had positive direct associations with vaccination-specific factors such as attitudes toward, injunctive norms on, and perceived behavioral control over COVID-19 vaccination. Perceived risk was also directly linked to intentions. Among these factors, attitudes and injunctive norms were most strongly related to intentions. Misinformation beliefs and worry had negative indirect relationships with intentions via the mediation of these variables directly connected to intentions. The negative influences of misinformation beliefs were greater among respondents reported stronger tie strengths. Theoretical and practical implications were discussed.

Estimates, trends, and drivers of the global burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 air pollution, 1990-2019: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Experimental and epidemiological studies indicate an association between exposure to particulate matter (PM) air pollution and increased risk of type 2 diabetes. In view of the high and increasing prevalence of diabetes, we aimed to quantify the burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 originating from ambient and household air pollution.

METHODS

We systematically compiled all relevant cohort and case-control studies assessing the effect of exposure to household and ambient fine particulate matter (PM2·5) air pollution on type 2 diabetes incidence and mortality. We derived an exposure-response curve from the extracted relative risk estimates using the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. The estimated curve was linked to ambient and household PM2·5 exposures from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, and estimates of the attributable burden (population attributable fractions and rates per 100 000 population of deaths and disability-adjusted life-years) for 204 countries from 1990 to 2019 were calculated. We also assessed the role of changes in exposure, population size, age, and type 2 diabetes incidence in the observed trend in PM2·5-attributable type 2 diabetes burden. All estimates are presented with 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, approximately a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes was attributable to PM2·5 exposure, with an estimated 3·78 (95% uncertainty interval 2·68-4·83) deaths per 100 000 population and 167 (117-223) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) per 100 000 population. Approximately 13·4% (9·49-17·5) of deaths and 13·6% (9·73-17·9) of DALYs due to type 2 diabetes were contributed by ambient PM2·5, and 6·50% (4·22-9·53) of deaths and 5·92% (3·81-8·64) of DALYs by household air pollution. High burdens, in terms of numbers as well as rates, were estimated in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South America. Since 1990, the attributable burden has increased by 50%, driven largely by population growth and ageing. Globally, the impact of reductions in household air pollution was largely offset by increased ambient PM2·5.

INTERPRETATION

Air pollution is a major risk factor for diabetes. We estimated that about a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes is attributable PM2·5 pollution. Air pollution mitigation therefore might have an essential role in reducing the global disease burden resulting from type 2 diabetes.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets.

Methods

The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B.

Findings

In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [–5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [–5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000.

Interpretation

The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Age-stratified trends in the progression of spinal radiographic damage in patients with ankylosing spondylitis: a longitudinal study

Objective:

The objective of this study was to investigate spinal radiographic progression in specific age ranges of ankylosing spondylitis (AS) patients.

Methods:

Longitudinal data for 1125 AS patients at a single hospital from 2000 to 2018 were retrospectively reviewed. Radiographic intervals were obtained from patients with consecutive spinal radiographs. The radiographic progression rate was defined as the modified Stoke Ankylosing Spondylitis Spinal Score (mSASSS) change per year within each interval. Using generalized estimating equations (GEEs), estimated marginal means were calculated for the mSASSS progression rate across age groups after adjusting for potential confounders.

Results:

We obtained 4016 radiographic intervals and stratified them into five groups based on patient age at the interval start: <20 (n = 122); 20–29 (n = 1124); 30–39 (n = 1690); 40–49 (n = 794); and ⩾50 years (n = 286). The mean (SD) mSASSS progression rate for all the intervals was 0.8 (1.9). The GEE-estimated mean mSASSS progression rate increased with age, peaking in the 30–39 age group with a value of 1.15 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03, 1.27], and decreased slightly thereafter. In the presence of risk factors, rapid progression occurred at earlier ages: the GEE-estimated mean mSASSS progression rate in those with elevated C-reactive protein levels and preexisting syndesmophytes was 2.82 (95% CI 1.93, 3.71) in the 20–29 age group.

Conclusion:

Spinal structural damage in AS seems to progress most rapidly when patients are age 30–39 years. An awareness of the trends in radiographic progression with advancing age could improve understanding of the natural course of AS.

Impact of Preterm Birth on Neurodevelopmental Disorders in South Korea: A Nationwide Population-Based Study

Neurodevelopmental disorder (NDD) in preterm infants has become of great interest. We aimed to investigate the impact of preterm birth on the proportion of NDD using nationwide data provided by the Korean National Health Insurance Service. We included 4894 extremely preterm or extremely low-birth-weight (EP/ELBW; <28 weeks of gestation or birth weight < 1000 g) infants, 70,583 other preterm or low-birth-weight (OP/LBW; 28−36 weeks of gestation or birth weight < 2500 g) infants, and 264,057 full-term infants born between 2008 and 2015. We observed their neurodevelopment until 6 years of age or until the year 2019, whichever occurred first. Diagnoses of NDDs were based on the World Health Organization’s International Classification of Diseases 10th revision. An association between preterm birth and NDD was assessed using a multivariable logistic regression model. There was a stepwise increase in the risk of overall NDD with increasing degree of prematurity, from OP/LBW (adjusted odds ratio 4.46; 95% confidence interval 4.34−4.58), to EP/ELBW (16.15; 15.21−17.15). The EP/ELBW group was strongly associated with developmental delay (21.47; 20.05−22.99), cerebral palsy (88.11; 79.89−97.19), and autism spectrum disorder (11.64; 10.37−13.06). Preterm birth considerably increased the risk of NDD by the degree of prematurity.

Safety of laparoscopic surgery during pregnancy: a Korean nationwide population-based study

BACKGROUND

The optimal surgical approach to perform during pregnancy is still controversial. This study evaluated pregnancy and operative outcomes in women undergoing an appendectomy or cholecystectomy during pregnancy, and compared them between the laparoscopic and open approach using nationwide population-based data.

METHODS

Between 2009 and 2019, a total of 2941 pregnant women with procedure codes for an appendectomy or cholecystectomy were extracted from the Korean National Health Insurance claims data (laparoscopy: 1504; open: 1437). Surgical outcomes [length of stay (LOS), anesthesia time, 30-day readmission rates, transfusion rates, second laparotomy, and 30-day mortality rates] and pregnancy outcomes (live birth rate, overall and spontaneous abortion rates, threatened abortion rate, type of delivery, preterm labor, stillbirth, fetal screening abnormalities, and intrauterine growth retardation) were compared between the open and laparoscopic groups.

RESULTS

The laparoscopic group had a significantly shorter LOS than the open group, and transfusions were less frequent in the laparoscopic group. Mortality, 30-day readmission rates, and second laparotomy were not statistically significant between the two groups. There were no significant differences in fetal loss and live birth rates between the two groups in all gestational ages. Preterm labor within 30 days of surgery was more frequent in the laparoscopy group than in the open surgery group, especially for those in their first and third trimesters. Open procedures were associated with an increased rate of cesarean sections.

CONCLUSIONS

Laparoscopic surgery was found to be feasible and safe without adverse postoperative outcomes. Careful observation of postoperative preterm labor is necessary, especially for women who undergo laparoscopic surgery in their first and third trimesters.

Global, regional, and national burden of diseases and injuries for adults 70 years and older: systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study

OBJECTIVES

To use data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) to estimate mortality and disability trends for the population aged ≥70 and evaluate patterns in causes of death, disability, and risk factors.

DESIGN

Systematic analysis.

SETTING

Participants were aged ≥70 from 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019.

MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES

Years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability adjusted life years, life expectancy at age 70 (LE-70), healthy life expectancy at age 70 (HALE-70), proportion of years in ill health at age 70 (PYIH-70), risk factors, and data coverage index were estimated based on standardised GBD methods.

RESULTS

Globally the population of older adults has increased since 1990 and all cause death rates have decreased for men and women. However, mortality rates due to falls increased between 1990 and 2019. The probability of death among people aged 70-90 decreased, mainly because of reductions in non-communicable diseases. Globally disability burden was largely driven by functional decline, vision and hearing loss, and symptoms of pain. LE-70 and HALE-70 showed continuous increases since 1990 globally, with certain regional disparities. Globally higher LE-70 resulted in higher HALE-70 and slightly increased PYIH-70. Sociodemographic and healthcare access and quality indices were positively correlated with HALE-70 and LE-70. For high exposure risk factors, data coverage was moderate, while limited data were available for various dietary, environmental or occupational, and metabolic risks.

CONCLUSIONS

Life expectancy at age 70 has continued to rise globally, mostly because of decreases in chronic diseases. Adults aged ≥70 living in high income countries and regions with better healthcare access and quality were found to experience the highest life expectancy and healthy life expectancy. Disability burden, however, remained constant, suggesting the need to enhance public health and intervention programmes to improve wellbeing among older adults.