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Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024; 403:2204-2256. [PMID: 38762325 PMCID: PMC11121021 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00685-8] [Show More Authors] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2024] [Revised: 03/29/2024] [Accepted: 04/02/2024] [Indexed: 05/20/2024] [Imported: 01/23/2025]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. METHODS Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. FINDINGS In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]). INTERPRETATION Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Mokdad AH, Bisignano C, Hsu JM, Bryazka D, Cao S, Bhattacharjee NV, Dalton BE, Lindstedt PA, Smith AE, Ababneh HS, Abbasgholizadeh R, Abdelkader A, Abdi P, Abiodun OO, Aboagye RG, Abukhadijah HJ, Abu-Zaid A, Acuna JM, Addo IY, Adekanmbi V, Adeyeoluwa TE, Adzigbli LA, Afolabi AA, Afrashteh F, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahmad S, Ahmadzade M, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Ahmed SA, Akkaif MA, Akkala S, Akrami AE, Al Awaidy S, Al Hasan SM, Al Ta'ani O, Al Zaabi OAM, Alahdab F, Al-Ajlouni Y, Al-Aly Z, Alam M, Aldhaleei WA, Algammal AM, Alhassan RK, Ali MU, Ali R, Ali W, Al-Ibraheem A, Almustanyir S, Alqahatni SA, Alrawashdeh A, Al-Rifai RH, Alsabri MA, Alshahrani NZ, Al-Tawfiq JA, Al-Wardat M, Aly H, Amindarolzarbi A, Amiri S, Anil A, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Arafat M, Aravkin AY, Ardekani A, Areda D, Asghariahmadabad M, Ayanore MA, Ayyoubzadeh SM, Azadnajafabad S, Azhar GS, Aziz S, Azzam AY, Babu GR, Baghdadi S, Bahreini R, Bako AT, Bärnighausen TW, Bastan MM, Basu S, Batra K, Batra R, Behnoush AH, Bemanalizadeh M, Benzian H, Bermudez ANC, Bernstein RS, Beyene KA, Bhagavathula AS, Bhala N, Bharadwaj R, Bhargava A, Bhaskar S, Bhat V, Bhuyan SS, Bodunrin AO, Boxe C, Boyko EJ, Braithwaite D, Brauer M, et alMokdad AH, Bisignano C, Hsu JM, Bryazka D, Cao S, Bhattacharjee NV, Dalton BE, Lindstedt PA, Smith AE, Ababneh HS, Abbasgholizadeh R, Abdelkader A, Abdi P, Abiodun OO, Aboagye RG, Abukhadijah HJ, Abu-Zaid A, Acuna JM, Addo IY, Adekanmbi V, Adeyeoluwa TE, Adzigbli LA, Afolabi AA, Afrashteh F, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahmad S, Ahmadzade M, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Ahmed SA, Akkaif MA, Akkala S, Akrami AE, Al Awaidy S, Al Hasan SM, Al Ta'ani O, Al Zaabi OAM, Alahdab F, Al-Ajlouni Y, Al-Aly Z, Alam M, Aldhaleei WA, Algammal AM, Alhassan RK, Ali MU, Ali R, Ali W, Al-Ibraheem A, Almustanyir S, Alqahatni SA, Alrawashdeh A, Al-Rifai RH, Alsabri MA, Alshahrani NZ, Al-Tawfiq JA, Al-Wardat M, Aly H, Amindarolzarbi A, Amiri S, Anil A, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Arafat M, Aravkin AY, Ardekani A, Areda D, Asghariahmadabad M, Ayanore MA, Ayyoubzadeh SM, Azadnajafabad S, Azhar GS, Aziz S, Azzam AY, Babu GR, Baghdadi S, Bahreini R, Bako AT, Bärnighausen TW, Bastan MM, Basu S, Batra K, Batra R, Behnoush AH, Bemanalizadeh M, Benzian H, Bermudez ANC, Bernstein RS, Beyene KA, Bhagavathula AS, Bhala N, Bharadwaj R, Bhargava A, Bhaskar S, Bhat V, Bhuyan SS, Bodunrin AO, Boxe C, Boyko EJ, Braithwaite D, Brauer M, Bugiardini R, Bustanji Y, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Capodici A, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Cembranel F, Cenko E, Cerin E, Chan JSK, Chattu VK, Chaudhary AA, Chen AT, Chen G, Chi G, Ching PR, Cho DY, Chong B, Choudhari SG, Chukwu IS, Chung E, Chung SC, Coker DC, Columbus A, Conde J, Cortese S, Criqui MH, Cruz-Martins N, Dai X, Dai Z, Damiani G, D'Anna L, Daoud F, Darcho SD, Das S, Dash NR, Dashtkoohi M, Degenhardt L, Des Jarlais DC, Desai HD, Devanbu VGC, Dewan SMR, Dhama K, Dhulipala VR, Diaz LAA, Ding DD, Do TC, Do THP, Dongarwar D, D'Oria M, Dorsey ER, Doshi OP, Douiri A, Dowou RK, Dube J, Dziedzic AM, E'mar AR, Ebrahimi A, Ehrlich JRR, Ekundayo TC, El Bayoumy IF, Elhadi M, Elhadi YAM, Eltaha C, Etaee F, Ezenwankwo EF, Fadaka AO, Fagbule OF, Fahim A, Fallahpour M, Fazylov T, Feigin VL, Feizkhah A, Fekadu G, Ferreira N, Fischer F, Gadanya MA, Ganesan B, Ganiyani MA, Gao X, Gebregergis MW, Gebrehiwot M, Gholami E, Gholamrezanezhad A, Ghotbi E, Ghozy S, Gillum RF, Göbölös L, Goldust M, Golechha M, Gouravani M, Grada A, Grover A, Guha A, Guicciardi S, Gupta R, Gupta RD, Habibzadeh P, Haep N, Hajj Ali A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haq ZA, Hasaballah AI, Hasan I, Hasan MK, Hasan SMM, Hasani H, Hasnain MS, Havmoeller RJ, Hay SI, He J, Hebert JJ, Hemmati M, Hiraike Y, Hoan NQ, Horita N, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc S, Hu C, Huang J, Hushmandi K, Hussain MA, Huynh HH, Iftikhar PM, Ikiroma A, Islam MR, Islam SMS, Iyasu AN, Jacob L, Jairoun AA, Jaka S, Jakovljevic M, Jalilzadeh Yengejeh R, Jamil S, Javaheri T, Jeswani BM, Kalani R, Kamarajah SK, Kamireddy A, Kanmodi KK, Kantar RS, Karaye IM, Katamreddy A, Kazemi F, Kazemian S, Kempen JH, Khamesipour F, Khan A, Khan F, Khan MJ, Khanmohammadi S, Khatab K, Khatatbeh MM, Khorgamphar M, Khormali M, Khosla AA, Khosravi M, Kim G, Kim MS, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Kochhar S, Koren G, Krishnamoorthy V, Kuddus MA, Kulimbet M, Kulkarni V, Kumar A, Kumar R, Kumar V, Kundu S, Kurmi OP, Kyei EF, Lan Q, Lansingh VC, Le HH, Le NHH, Le TTT, Leasher JL, Lee M, Lee WC, Li W, Lim SS, Lin J, Liu G, Liu RT, Liu X, López-Gil JF, Lopukhov PD, Lucchetti G, Lunevicius R, Lv L, Maaty DWS, Maharaj SB, Mahmoudi E, Makram OM, Malakan Rad E, Malasala S, Manla Y, Mansouri V, Manu E, Martinez-Piedra R, Marzo RR, Mathangasinghe Y, Mathur M, Matozinhos FP, Mayeli M, McPhail SM, Mediratta RP, Mekene Meto T, Meles HN, Melese EB, Meo SA, Mestrovic T, Metanat P, Mhlanga L, Michalek IM, Miller TR, Mini GK, Mirarefin M, Moberg ME, Mohamed J, Mohamed NS, Mohammad AM, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammadzadeh I, Mohammed S, Molavi Vardanjani H, Moni MA, Moraga P, Morrison SD, Motappa R, Munkhsaikhan Y, Murillo-Zamora E, Mustafa A, Nafei A, Naghavi P, Naik G, Najafi MS, Nanavaty DP, Nandu KTK, Nascimento GG, Naser AY, Nashwan AJ, Natto ZS, Nduaguba SO, Nguyen DH, Nguyen PT, Nguyen QP, Nguyen VT, Nikravangolsefid N, Niranjan V, Noor STA, Nugen F, Nutor JJ, Nzoputam OJ, Oancea B, Oduro MS, Ogundijo OA, Ogunsakin RE, Ojo-Akosile TR, Okeke SR, Okonji OC, Olagunju AT, Olorukooba AA, Olufadewa II, Oluwafemi YD, Omar HA, Opejin A, Ostroff SM, Owolabi MO, Ozair A, P A MP, Panda SK, Pandi-Perumal SR, Parikh RR, Park S, Pashaei A, Patel P, Patil S, Pawar S, Peprah EK, Pereira G, Pham HN, Philip AK, Phillips MR, Pigeolet M, Postma MJ, Pourbabaki R, Prabhu D, Pradhan J, Pradhan PMS, Puvvula J, Rafferty Q, Raggi C, Rahim MJ, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MA, Rahmanian M, Ramadan M, Ramasamy SK, Ramazanu S, Ranabhat CL, Rane A, Rao SJ, Rashedi S, Rashid AM, Ray A, Reddy MMRK, Redwan EMM, Rhee TG, Rodriguez JAB, Rojas-Rueda D, Rout HS, Roy P, Runghien T, Saad AMA, Sabet CJ, Saeed U, Safari M, Sagoe D, Sajib MRUZ, Saleh MA, Salum GA, Samuel VP, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Saravanan A, Saravi B, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Schlaich MP, Schuermans A, Schumacher AE, Schwebel DC, Selvaraj S, Seylani A, Shafie M, Shahbandi A, Shahsavari HR, Shaikh MA, Shamim MA, Sharath M, Sharew NT, Sharifan A, Sharma A, Sharma M, Shayan M, Sheikh A, Shen J, Sherchan SP, Shetty M, Shetty PH, Shetty PK, Shigematsu M, Shittu A, Shivarov V, Shool S, Shuval K, Siddig EE, Singh JA, Singh S, Sleet DA, Smith G, Solanki S, Soliman SSM, Stafford LK, Stanaway JD, Straif K, Sulaiman SK, Sun J, Swain CK, Szarpak L, Szeto MD, Tabatabaei SM, Tabche C, Tadakamadla J, Taiba J, Tat NY, Temsah MH, Teramoto M, Thirunavukkarasu S, Tovani-Palone MR, Tram KH, Tran JT, Tran NH, Tran TH, Trico D, Tromans SJ, Truyen TTTT, Tumurkhuu M, Udoh A, Ullah S, Vahdati S, Vaithinathan AG, Vakili O, Van den Eynde J, Vervoort D, Vinayak M, Weerakoon KG, Wei MY, Wickramasinghe ND, Wolde AA, Wu C, Wu F, Xiao H, Xu S, Yano Y, Yasufuku Y, Yiğit A, Yon DK, Younis MZ, Yu C, Yuan CW, Zahid MH, Zare I, Zeariya MGM, Zhang H, Zhang Z, Zheng R, Zhong CC, Zhu B, Zhumagaliuly A, Zia H, Zielińska M, Zyoud SH, Vollset SE, Murray CJL. Burden of disease scenarios by state in the USA, 2022-50: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024; 404:2341-2370. [PMID: 39645377 PMCID: PMC11715278 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)02246-3] [Show More Authors] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/11/2024] [Revised: 10/03/2024] [Accepted: 10/07/2024] [Indexed: 12/09/2024] [Imported: 01/23/2025]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The capacity to anticipate future health issues is important for both policy makers and practitioners in the USA, as such insights can facilitate effective planning, investment, and implementation strategies. Forecasting trends in disease and injury burden is not only crucial for policy makers but also garners substantial interest from the general populace and leads to a better-informed public. Through the integration of new data sources, the refinement of methodologies, and the inclusion of additional causes, we have improved our previous forecasting efforts within the scope of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to produce forecasts at the state and national levels for the USA under various possible scenarios. METHODS We developed a comprehensive framework for forecasting life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HALE), cause-specific mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 359 causes of disease and injury burden from 2022 to 2050 for the USA and all 50 states and Washington, DC. Using the GBD 2021 Future Health Scenarios modelling framework, we forecasted drivers of disease, demographic drivers, risk factors, temperature and particulate matter, mortality and years of life lost (YLL), population, and non-fatal burden. In addition to a reference scenario (representing the most probable future trajectory), we explored various future scenarios and their potential impacts over the next several decades on human health. These alternative scenarios comprised four risk elimination scenarios (including safer environment, improved behavioural and metabolic risks, improved childhood nutrition and vaccination, and a combined scenario) and three USA-specific scenarios based on risk exposure or attributable burden in the best-performing US states (improved high adult BMI and high fasting plasma glucose [FPG], improved smoking, and improved drug use [encompassing opioids, cocaine, amphetamine, and others]). FINDINGS Life expectancy in the USA is projected to increase from 78·3 years (95% uncertainty interval 78·1-78·5) in 2022 to 79·9 years (79·5-80·2) in 2035, and to 80·4 years (79·8-81·0) in 2050 for all sexes combined. This increase is forecasted to be modest compared with that in other countries around the world, resulting in the USA declining in global rank over the 2022-50 forecasted period among the 204 countries and territories in GBD, from 49th to 66th. There is projected to be a decline in female life expectancy in West Virginia between 1990 and 2050, and little change in Arkansas and Oklahoma. Additionally, after 2023, we projected almost no change in female life expectancy in many states, notably in Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, Iowa, Maine, and Wisconsin. Female HALE is projected to decline between 1990 and 2050 in 20 states and to remain unchanged in three others. Drug use disorders and low back pain are projected to be the leading Level 3 causes of age-standardised DALYs in 2050. The age-standardised DALY rate due to drug use disorders is projected to increase considerably between 2022 and 2050 (19·5% [6·9-34·1]). Our combined risk elimination scenario shows that the USA could gain 3·8 additional years (3·6-4·0) of life expectancy and 4·1 additional years (3·9-4·3) of HALE in 2050 versus the reference scenario. Using our USA-specific scenarios, we forecasted that the USA could gain 0·4 additional years (0·3-0·6) of life expectancy and 0·6 additional years (0·5-0·8) of HALE in 2050 under the improved drug use scenario relative to the reference scenario. Life expectancy and HALE are likewise projected to be 0·4-0·5 years higher in 2050 under the improved adult BMI and FPG and improved smoking scenarios compared with the reference scenario. However, the increases in these scenarios would not substantially improve the USA's global ranking in 2050 (from 66th of 204 in life expectancy in the reference scenario to 63rd-64th in each of the three USA-specific scenarios), indicating that the USA's best-performing states are still lagging behind other countries in their rank throughout the forecasted period. Regardless, an estimated 12·4 million (11·3-13·5) deaths could be averted between 2022 and 2050 if the USA were to follow the combined scenario trajectory rather than the reference scenario. There would also be 1·4 million (0·7-2·2) fewer deaths over the 28-year forecasted period with improved adult BMI and FPG, 2·1 million (1·3-2·9) fewer deaths with improved exposure to smoking, and 1·2 million (0·9-1·5) fewer deaths with lower rates of drug use deaths. INTERPRETATION Our findings highlight the alarming trajectory of health challenges in the USA, which, if left unaddressed, could lead to a reversal of the health progress made over the past three decades for some US states and a decline in global health standing for all states. The evidence from our alternative scenarios along with other published studies suggests that through collaborative, evidence-based strategies, there are opportunities to change the trajectory of health outcomes in the USA, such as by investing in scientific innovation, health-care access, preventive health care, risk exposure reduction, and education. Our forecasts clearly show that the time to act is now, as the future of the country's health and wellbeing-as well as its prosperity and leadership position in science and innovation-are at stake. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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