Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global mortality associated with 33 bacterial pathogens in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Reducing the burden of death due to infection is an urgent global public health priority. Previous studies have estimated the number of deaths associated with drug-resistant infections and sepsis and found that infections remain a leading cause of death globally. Understanding the global burden of common bacterial pathogens (both susceptible and resistant to antimicrobials) is essential to identify the greatest threats to public health. To our knowledge, this is the first study to present global comprehensive estimates of deaths associated with 33 bacterial pathogens across 11 major infectious syndromes.

METHODS

We estimated deaths associated with 33 bacterial genera or species across 11 infectious syndromes in 2019 using methods from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, in addition to a subset of the input data described in the Global Burden of Antimicrobial Resistance 2019 study. This study included 343 million individual records or isolates covering 11 361 study-location-years. We used three modelling steps to estimate the number of deaths associated with each pathogen: deaths in which infection had a role, the fraction of deaths due to infection that are attributable to a given infectious syndrome, and the fraction of deaths due to an infectious syndrome that are attributable to a given pathogen. Estimates were produced for all ages and for males and females across 204 countries and territories in 2019. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for final estimates of deaths and infections associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens following standard GBD methods by taking the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles across 1000 posterior draws for each quantity of interest.

FINDINGS

From an estimated 13·7 million (95% UI 10·9-17·1) infection-related deaths in 2019, there were 7·7 million deaths (5·7-10·2) associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens (both resistant and susceptible to antimicrobials) across the 11 infectious syndromes estimated in this study. We estimated deaths associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens to comprise 13·6% (10·2-18·1) of all global deaths and 56·2% (52·1-60·1) of all sepsis-related deaths in 2019. Five leading pathogens-Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa-were responsible for 54·9% (52·9-56·9) of deaths among the investigated bacteria. The deadliest infectious syndromes and pathogens varied by location and age. The age-standardised mortality rate associated with these bacterial pathogens was highest in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region, with 230 deaths (185-285) per 100 000 population, and lowest in the high-income super-region, with 52·2 deaths (37·4-71·5) per 100 000 population. S aureus was the leading bacterial cause of death in 135 countries and was also associated with the most deaths in individuals older than 15 years, globally. Among children younger than 5 years, S pneumoniae was the pathogen associated with the most deaths. In 2019, more than 6 million deaths occurred as a result of three bacterial infectious syndromes, with lower respiratory infections and bloodstream infections each causing more than 2 million deaths and peritoneal and intra-abdominal infections causing more than 1 million deaths.

INTERPRETATION

The 33 bacterial pathogens that we investigated in this study are a substantial source of health loss globally, with considerable variation in their distribution across infectious syndromes and locations. Compared with GBD Level 3 underlying causes of death, deaths associated with these bacteria would rank as the second leading cause of death globally in 2019; hence, they should be considered an urgent priority for intervention within the global health community. Strategies to address the burden of bacterial infections include infection prevention, optimised use of antibiotics, improved capacity for microbiological analysis, vaccine development, and improved and more pervasive use of available vaccines. These estimates can be used to help set priorities for vaccine need, demand, and development.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care, using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally.

METHODS

We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available.

FINDINGS

Globally in 2019, 1·14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·13-1·16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7·41 trillion (7·11-7·74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27·5% [26·5-28·5] reduction) and females (37·7% [35·4-39·9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0·99 billion (0·98-1·00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7·69 million (7·16-8·20) deaths and 200 million (185-214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20·2% [19·3-21·1] of male deaths). 6·68 million [86·9%] of 7·69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers.

INTERPRETATION

In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7·69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use has been observed in countries from all regions and at all stages of development, but a large implementation gap remains for tobacco control. Countries have a clear and urgent opportunity to pass strong, evidence-based policies to accelerate reductions in the prevalence of smoking and reap massive health benefits for their citizens.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.

METHODS

The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance 1990-2021: a systematic analysis with forecasts to 2050

BACKGROUND

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses an important global health challenge in the 21st century. A previous study has quantified the global and regional burden of AMR for 2019, followed with additional publications that provided more detailed estimates for several WHO regions by country. To date, there have been no studies that produce comprehensive estimates of AMR burden across locations that encompass historical trends and future forecasts.

METHODS

We estimated all-age and age-specific deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with bacterial AMR for 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen-drug combinations, and 11 infectious syndromes in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. We collected and used multiple cause of death data, hospital discharge data, microbiology data, literature studies, single drug resistance profiles, pharmaceutical sales, antibiotic use surveys, mortality surveillance, linkage data, outpatient and inpatient insurance claims data, and previously published data, covering 520 million individual records or isolates and 19 513 study-location-years. We used statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all locations, including those with no data. Our approach leverages the estimation of five broad component quantities: the number of deaths involving sepsis; the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome; the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen; the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antibiotic of interest; and the excess risk of death or duration of an infection associated with this resistance. Using these components, we estimated disease burden attributable to and associated with AMR, which we define based on two counterfactuals; respectively, an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections are replaced by drug-susceptible infections, and an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections were replaced by no infection. Additionally, we produced global and regional forecasts of AMR burden until 2050 for three scenarios: a reference scenario that is a probabilistic forecast of the most likely future; a Gram-negative drug scenario that assumes future drug development that targets Gram-negative pathogens; and a better care scenario that assumes future improvements in health-care quality and access to appropriate antimicrobials. We present final estimates aggregated to the global, super-regional, and regional level.

FINDINGS

In 2021, we estimated 4·71 million (95% UI 4·23-5·19) deaths were associated with bacterial AMR, including 1·14 million (1·00-1·28) deaths attributable to bacterial AMR. Trends in AMR mortality over the past 31 years varied substantially by age and location. From 1990 to 2021, deaths from AMR decreased by more than 50% among children younger than 5 years yet increased by over 80% for adults 70 years and older. AMR mortality decreased for children younger than 5 years in all super-regions, whereas AMR mortality in people 5 years and older increased in all super-regions. For both deaths associated with and deaths attributable to AMR, meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus increased the most globally (from 261 000 associated deaths [95% UI 150 000-372 000] and 57 200 attributable deaths [34 100-80 300] in 1990, to 550 000 associated deaths [500 000-600 000] and 130 000 attributable deaths [113 000-146 000] in 2021). Among Gram-negative bacteria, resistance to carbapenems increased more than any other antibiotic class, rising from 619 000 associated deaths (405 000-834 000) in 1990, to 1·03 million associated deaths (909 000-1·16 million) in 2021, and from 127 000 attributable deaths (82 100-171 000) in 1990, to 216 000 (168 000-264 000) attributable deaths in 2021. There was a notable decrease in non-COVID-related infectious disease in 2020 and 2021. Our forecasts show that an estimated 1·91 million (1·56-2·26) deaths attributable to AMR and 8·22 million (6·85-9·65) deaths associated with AMR could occur globally in 2050. Super-regions with the highest all-age AMR mortality rate in 2050 are forecasted to be south Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. Increases in deaths attributable to AMR will be largest among those 70 years and older (65·9% [61·2-69·8] of all-age deaths attributable to AMR in 2050). In stark contrast to the strong increase in number of deaths due to AMR of 69·6% (51·5-89·2) from 2022 to 2050, the number of DALYs showed a much smaller increase of 9·4% (-6·9 to 29·0) to 46·5 million (37·7 to 57·3) in 2050. Under the better care scenario, across all age groups, 92·0 million deaths (82·8-102·0) could be cumulatively averted between 2025 and 2050, through better care of severe infections and improved access to antibiotics, and under the Gram-negative drug scenario, 11·1 million AMR deaths (9·08-13·2) could be averted through the development of a Gram-negative drug pipeline to prevent AMR deaths.

INTERPRETATION

This study presents the first comprehensive assessment of the global burden of AMR from 1990 to 2021, with results forecasted until 2050. Evaluating changing trends in AMR mortality across time and location is necessary to understand how this important global health threat is developing and prepares us to make informed decisions regarding interventions. Our findings show the importance of infection prevention, as shown by the reduction of AMR deaths in those younger than 5 years. Simultaneously, our results underscore the concerning trend of AMR burden among those older than 70 years, alongside a rapidly ageing global community. The opposing trends in the burden of AMR deaths between younger and older individuals explains the moderate future increase in global number of DALYs versus number of deaths. Given the high variability of AMR burden by location and age, it is important that interventions combine infection prevention, vaccination, minimisation of inappropriate antibiotic use in farming and humans, and research into new antibiotics to mitigate the number of AMR deaths that are forecasted for 2050.

FUNDING

UK Department of Health and Social Care's Fleming Fund using UK aid, and the Wellcome Trust.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of chronic respiratory diseases and risk factors, 1990-2019: an update from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Updated data on chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are vital in their prevention, control, and treatment in the path to achieving the third UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030. We provided global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of CRDs and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we estimated mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), prevalence, and incidence of CRDs, i.e. chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, pneumoconiosis, interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis, and other CRDs, from 1990 to 2019 by sex, age, region, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) in 204 countries and territories. Deaths and DALYs from CRDs attributable to each risk factor were estimated according to relative risks, risk exposure, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level input.

Findings

In 2019, CRDs were the third leading cause of death responsible for 4.0 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 3.6-4.3) with a prevalence of 454.6 million cases (417.4-499.1) globally. While the total deaths and prevalence of CRDs have increased by 28.5% and 39.8%, the age-standardised rates have dropped by 41.7% and 16.9% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. COPD, with 212.3 million (200.4-225.1) prevalent cases, was the primary cause of deaths from CRDs, accounting for 3.3 million (2.9-3.6) deaths. With 262.4 million (224.1-309.5) prevalent cases, asthma had the highest prevalence among CRDs. The age-standardised rates of all burden measures of COPD, asthma, and pneumoconiosis have reduced globally from 1990 to 2019. Nevertheless, the age-standardised rates of incidence and prevalence of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis have increased throughout this period. Low- and low-middle SDI countries had the highest age-standardised death and DALYs rates while the high SDI quintile had the highest prevalence rate of CRDs. The highest deaths and DALYs from CRDs were attributed to smoking globally, followed by air pollution and occupational risks. Non-optimal temperature and high body-mass index were additional risk factors for COPD and asthma, respectively.

Interpretation

Albeit the age-standardised prevalence, death, and DALYs rates of CRDs have decreased, they still cause a substantial burden and deaths worldwide. The high death and DALYs rates in low and low-middle SDI countries highlights the urgent need for improved preventive, diagnostic, and therapeutic measures. Global strategies for tobacco control, enhancing air quality, reducing occupational hazards, and fostering clean cooking fuels are crucial steps in reducing the burden of CRDs, especially in low- and lower-middle income countries.

Prevalence, years lived with disability, and trends in anaemia burden by severity and cause, 1990-2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Anaemia is a major health problem worldwide. Global estimates of anaemia burden are crucial for developing appropriate interventions to meet current international targets for disease mitigation. We describe the prevalence, years lived with disability, and trends of anaemia and its underlying causes in 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We estimated population-level distributions of haemoglobin concentration by age and sex for each location from 1990 to 2021. We then calculated anaemia burden by severity and associated years lived with disability (YLDs). With data on prevalence of the causes of anaemia and associated cause-specific shifts in haemoglobin concentrations, we modelled the proportion of anaemia attributed to 37 underlying causes for all locations, years, and demographics in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

FINDINGS

In 2021, the global prevalence of anaemia across all ages was 24·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 23·9-24·7), corresponding to 1·92 billion (1·89-1·95) prevalent cases, compared with a prevalence of 28·2% (27·8-28·5) and 1·50 billion (1·48-1·52) prevalent cases in 1990. Large variations were observed in anaemia burden by age, sex, and geography, with children younger than 5 years, women, and countries in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia being particularly affected. Anaemia caused 52·0 million (35·1-75·1) YLDs in 2021, and the YLD rate due to anaemia declined with increasing Socio-demographic Index. The most common causes of anaemia YLDs in 2021 were dietary iron deficiency (cause-specific anaemia YLD rate per 100 000 population: 422·4 [95% UI 286·1-612·9]), haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias (89·0 [58·2-123·7]), and other neglected tropical diseases (36·3 [24·4-52·8]), collectively accounting for 84·7% (84·1-85·2) of anaemia YLDs.

INTERPRETATION

Anaemia remains a substantial global health challenge, with persistent disparities according to age, sex, and geography. Estimates of cause-specific anaemia burden can be used to design locally relevant health interventions aimed at improving anaemia management and prevention.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Primary Health Care Facility Preparedness for Outpatient Service Provision During the COVID-19 Pandemic in India: Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

Primary health centers (PHCs) represent the first tier of the Indian health care system, providing a range of essential outpatient services to people living in the rural, suburban, and hard-to-reach areas. Diversion of health care resources for containing the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has significantly undermined the accessibility and availability of essential health services. Under these circumstances, the preparedness of PHCs in providing safe patient-centered care and meeting the current health needs of the population while preventing further transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection is crucial.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to determine the primary health care facility preparedness toward the provision of safe outpatient services during the COVID-19 pandemic in India.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study among supervisors and managers of primary health care facilities attached to medical colleges and institutions in India. A list of 60 faculties involved in the management and supervision of PHCs affiliated with the community medicine departments of medical colleges and institutes across India was compiled from an accessible private organization member database. We collected the data through a rapid survey from April 24 to 30, 2020, using a Google Forms online digital questionnaire that evaluated preparedness parameters based on self-assessment by the participants. The preparedness domains assessed were infrastructure availability, health worker safety, and patient care.

RESULTS

A total of 51 faculties responded to the survey. Each medical college and institution had on average a total of 2.94 (SD 1.7) PHCs under its jurisdiction. Infrastructural and infection control deficits at the PHC were reported in terms of limited physical space and queuing capacity, lack of separate entry and exit gates (n=25, 49%), inadequate ventilation (n=29, 57%), and negligible airborne infection control measures (n=38, 75.5%). N95 masks were available at 26 (50.9%) sites. Infection prevention and control measures were also suboptimal with inadequate facilities for handwashing and hand hygiene reported in 23.5% (n=12) and 27.4% (n=14) of sites, respectively. The operation of outpatient services, particularly related to maternal and child health, was significantly disrupted (P<.001) during the COVID-19 pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

Existing PHC facilities in India providing outpatient services are constrained in their functioning during the COVID-19 pandemic due to weak infrastructure contributing to suboptimal patient safety and infection control measures. Furthermore, there is a need for effective planning, communication, and coordination between the centralized health policy makers and health managers working at primary health care facilities to ensure overall preparedness during public health emergencies.

Non-communicable disease management in vulnerable patients during Covid-19

It is now well established that non-communicable diseases (NCD), like diabetes mellitus, hypertension,, respiratory and heart disease, particularly among the elderly, increase the susceptibility to COVID-19 disease. Mortality in 60%-90% of the COVID-19 cases is attributed to either one or more of these comorbidities. However, healthcare management for control of COVID-19 involves public health and policy decisions that may critically undermine the existing health needs of the most vulnerable NCD patients. Temporary closure of outpatient health facilities in some secondary and tertiary care hospitals have deprived millions of NCD patients of their regular medication and diagnostic health needs. The lack of robust primary healthcare facilities in most states, and the failure to maintain physical distancing norms due to inadequate infrastructure is also problematic. In the absence of effective public health interventions, socioeconomically vulnerable patients are likely to become non-adherent increasing manifold their risk of disease complications. In this context, the feasibility of dispensing longer than usual drug refills for chronic NCD conditions at functional government health facilities, home delivery of essential drugs, running dedicated NCD clinics at PHCs, and utilisation of telemedicine opportunities for care and support to patients warrant aggressive exploration. Keywords: Covid-19, NCDs, Medical ethics, epidemic, India.

Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis and its aetiologies, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Although meningitis is largely preventable, it still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. WHO set ambitious goals to reduce meningitis cases by 2030, and assessing trends in the global meningitis burden can help track progress and identify gaps in achieving these goals. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we aimed to assess incident cases and deaths due to acute infectious meningitis by aetiology and age from 1990 to 2019, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We modelled meningitis mortality using vital registration, verbal autopsy, sample-based vital registration, and mortality surveillance data. Meningitis morbidity was modelled with a Bayesian compartmental model, using data from the published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as surveillance data, inpatient hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and cause-specific meningitis mortality estimates. For aetiology estimation, data from multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature studies were analysed by use of a network analysis model to estimate the proportion of meningitis deaths and cases attributable to the following aetiologies: Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group B Streptococcus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, viruses, and a residual other pathogen category.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 236 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 204 000-277 000) and 2·51 million (2·11-2·99) incident cases due to meningitis globally. The burden was greatest in children younger than 5 years, with 112 000 deaths (87 400-145 000) and 1·28 million incident cases (0·947-1·71) in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates decreased from 7·5 (6·6-8·4) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 3·3 (2·8-3·9) per 100 000 population in 2019. The highest proportion of total all-age meningitis deaths in 2019 was attributable to S pneumoniae (18·1% [17·1-19·2]), followed by N meningitidis (13·6% [12·7-14·4]) and K pneumoniae (12·2% [10·2-14·3]). Between 1990 and 2019, H influenzae showed the largest reduction in the number of deaths among children younger than 5 years (76·5% [69·5-81·8]), followed by N meningitidis (72·3% [64·4-78·5]) and viruses (58·2% [47·1-67·3]).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing meningitis mortality over the past three decades. However, more meningitis-related deaths might be prevented by quickly scaling up immunisation and expanding access to health services. Further reduction in the global meningitis burden should be possible through low-cost multivalent vaccines, increased access to accurate and rapid diagnostic assays, enhanced surveillance, and early treatment.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Adolescent transport and unintentional injuries: a systematic analysis using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Globally, transport and unintentional injuries persist as leading preventable causes of mortality and morbidity for adolescents. We sought to report comprehensive trends in injury-related mortality and morbidity for adolescents aged 10-24 years during the past three decades.

METHODS

Using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2019 Study, we analysed mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributed to transport and unintentional injuries for adolescents in 204 countries. Burden is reported in absolute numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population by sex, age group (10-14, 15-19, and 20-24 years), and sociodemographic index (SDI) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We report percentage changes in deaths and DALYs between 1990 and 2019.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 369 061 deaths (of which 214 337 [58%] were transport related) and 31·1 million DALYs (of which 16·2 million [52%] were transport related) among adolescents aged 10-24 years were caused by transport and unintentional injuries combined. If compared with other causes, transport and unintentional injuries combined accounted for 25% of deaths and 14% of DALYs in 2019, and showed little improvement from 1990 when such injuries accounted for 26% of adolescent deaths and 17% of adolescent DALYs. Throughout adolescence, transport and unintentional injury fatality rates increased by age group. The unintentional injury burden was higher among males than females for all injury types, except for injuries related to fire, heat, and hot substances, or to adverse effects of medical treatment. From 1990 to 2019, global mortality rates declined by 34·4% (from 17·5 to 11·5 per 100 000) for transport injuries, and by 47·7% (from 15·9 to 8·3 per 100 000) for unintentional injuries. However, in low-SDI nations the absolute number of deaths increased (by 80·5% to 42 774 for transport injuries and by 39·4% to 31 961 for unintentional injuries). In the high-SDI quintile in 2010-19, the rate per 100 000 of transport injury DALYs was reduced by 16·7%, from 838 in 2010 to 699 in 2019. This was a substantially slower pace of reduction compared with the 48·5% reduction between 1990 and 2010, from 1626 per 100 000 in 1990 to 838 per 100 000 in 2010. Between 2010 and 2019, the rate of unintentional injury DALYs per 100 000 also remained largely unchanged in high-SDI countries (555 in 2010 vs 554 in 2019; 0·2% reduction). The number and rate of adolescent deaths and DALYs owing to environmental heat and cold exposure increased for the high-SDI quintile during 2010-19.

INTERPRETATION

As other causes of mortality are addressed, inadequate progress in reducing transport and unintentional injury mortality as a proportion of adolescent deaths becomes apparent. The relative shift in the burden of injury from high-SDI countries to low and low-middle-SDI countries necessitates focused action, including global donor, government, and industry investment in injury prevention. The persisting burden of DALYs related to transport and unintentional injuries indicates a need to prioritise innovative measures for the primary prevention of adolescent injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Improving the assessment of medication adherence: Challenges and considerations with a focus on low-resource settings

Improving patient survival and quality of life in chronic diseases requires prolonged and often lifelong medication intake. Less than half of patients with chronic diseases globally are adherent to their prescribed medications which preclude the full benefit of treatment, worsens therapeutic outcomes, accelerates disease progression, and causes enormous economic losses. The accurate assessment of medication adherence is pivotal for both researchers and clinicians. Medication adherence can be assessed through both direct and indirect measures. Indirect measures include both subjective (self-report measures such as questionnaire and interview) and objective (pill count and secondary database analysis) measures and constitute the mainstay of assessing medication adherence. However, the lack of an inexpensive, ubiquitous, universal gold standard for assessment of medication adherence emphasizes the need to utilize a combination of measures to differentiate adherent and nonadherent patients. The global heterogeneity in health systems precludes the development of a universal guideline for evaluating medication adherence. Methods based on the secondary database analysis are mostly ineffectual in low-resource settings lacking electronic pharmacy and insurance databases and allowing refills without updated, valid prescriptions from private pharmacies. This significantly restricts the choices for assessing adherence until digitization of medical data takes root in much of the developing world. Nevertheless, there is ample scope for improving self-report measures of adherence. Effective interview techniques, especially accounting for suboptimal patient health literacy, validation of adherence questionnaires, and avoiding conceptual fallacies in reporting adherence can improve the assessment of medication adherence and promote understanding of its causal factors.

Addiction-like Behavior Associated with Mobile Phone Usage among Medical Students in Delhi

BACKGROUND

Mobile phone addiction is a type of technological addiction or nonsubstance addiction. The present study was conducted with the objectives of developing and validating a mobile phone addiction scale in medical students and to assess the burden and factors associated with mobile phone addiction-like behavior.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted among undergraduate medical students aged ≥18 years studying in a medical college in New Delhi, India from December 2016 to May 2017. A pretested self-administered questionnaire was used for data collection. Mobile phone addiction was assessed using a self-designed 20-item Mobile Phone Addiction Scale (MPAS). Data were analyzed using IBM SPSS Version 17.

RESULTS

The study comprised of 233 (60.1%) male and 155 (39.9%) female medical students with a mean age of 20.48 years. MPAS had a high level of internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha 0.90). Bartlett's test of sphericity was statistically significant (P < 0.0001), indicating that the MPAS data were likely factorizable. A principal component analysis found strong loadings on items relating to four components: harmful use, intense desire, impaired control, and tolerance. A subsequent two-stage cluster analysis of all the 20-items of the MPAS classified 155 (39.9%) students with mobile phone addiction-like behavior that was lower in adolescent compared to older students, but there was no significant difference across gender.

CONCLUSION

Mobile phone use with increasing adoption of smartphones promotes an addiction-like behavior that is evolving as a public health problem in a large proportion of Indian youth.

Adherence to self-care practices, glycemic status and influencing factors in diabetes patients in a tertiary care hospital in Delhi

AIM

To assess the adherence to self-care practices, glycemic status and influencing factors in diabetes patients.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional observational analysis of baseline data from a quasi-experimental study conducted among 375 diabetic patients aged between 18 to 65 years at a major public tertiary care centre in New Delhi, India during February-September' 2016. The Summary of Diabetes Self-care activities measure was used to assess medical adherence in diabetic patients. Open ended questions were used to identify facilitators and inhibitors of medical adherence.

RESULTS

Mean age of the study subjects was 49.7 ± 10.2 years. A total of 201 men and 174 women were enrolled in the study. Three hundred nine (82.4%) subjects were adherent to their intake of anti-diabetic medication. On binary logistic regression, education level below primary school completion and absence of hypertension comorbidity were found to be independent predictors of medication non-adherence. Sociocultural resistance was an important factor impeding outdoor exercise among younger women. Knowledge of diabetes in the study subjects was low with mean score of 3.1 ± 2 (maximum score = 10). Suboptimal glycemic control was found in 259 (69%) subjects which was significantly more likely in patients on Insulin therapy compared to those on Oral Hypoglycemic agents alone (P < 0.006).DISCUSSIONOur study found a large gap existed between self-reported medication adherence and glycemic control. This suggests the need for enhanced physician focus for diabetic patient management.

Perceived Stress and its Epidemiological and Behavioral Correlates in an Urban Area of Delhi, India: A Community-Based Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

Increasing stress has been recognized as a major public health problem in the developing world accelerated by an ongoing demographic, economic, and sociocultural transition. Our study objectives were to validate a Hindi version of the 10-item Perceived Stress Scale (PSS-10) and to also assess the extent of perceived stress and its correlates among an adult population in an urban area of Delhi.

METHODOLOGY

A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted in an urban resettlement colony of Delhi among 480 adult subjects aged 25--65 years, during the period from January to December 2015. The PSS-10 was translated into Hindi and validated in the study population. Data was analyzed using IBM SPSS Version 25.

RESULTS

A total of 243 (50.6%) men and 237 (49.4%) women were enrolled. The scale had an acceptable level of internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha = 0.731). A principal component analysis was run on the PSS-10 data, based on which a three-component structure was accepted, which explained 61% of the total variance. The mean PSS score was 19.25 (SD = 4.50) years. Perceived stress was highest in the 35--50 age group. On multivariate analysis, low socioeconomic status and a white-collar occupation were found to be associated with increased perceived stress (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

A high burden of perceived stress exists in residents of a low-income urban population in India.

COVID-19 and tuberculosis: A mathematical model based forecasting in Delhi, India

BACKGROUND

There is emerging evidence that patients with Latent Tuberculosis Infection(LTBI) and Tuberculosis(TB) disease have an increased risk of the SARS-CoV-2 infection and predisposition towards developing severe COVID-19 pneumonia. In this study we attempted to estimate the number of TB patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 and have severe disease during the COVID-19 epidemic in Delhi, India.

METHODS

Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model was used to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases in Delhi. Assuming the prevalence of TB in Delhi to be 0.55%, 53% of SARS-CoV2 infected TB cases to present with severe disease we estimated the number of SARS-CoV2 infected TB cases and the number of severe patients. The modelling used estimated R0 for two scenarios, without any intervention and with public health interventions.

RESULTS

We observed that the peak of SARS-CoV-2-TB co-infected patients would occur on the 94th day in absence of public health interventions and on 138th day in presence of interventions. There could be 20,880 SARS-CoV-2 infected TB cases on peak day of epidemic when interventions are implemented and 27,968 cases in the absence of intervention. Among them, there could be 14,823 patients with severe disease when no interventions are implemented and 11,066 patients with severe disease in the presence of intervention.

CONCLUSION

The importance of primary prevention measures needs to be emphasized especially in TB patients. The TB treatment centres and hospitals needs to be prepared for early diagnosis and management of severe COVID-19 in TB patients.

Diabetes self-care in primary health facilities in India - challenges and the way forward

India has approximately 73 million people living with diabetes and another 37 million with prediabetes while nearly 47% of the diabetes cases are undiagnosed. The high burden of poor glycemic control and early onset of complications with associated economic costs indicates a high prevalence of poor self-management practices. It is well-established that achieving patient-centered primary care consistent with a chronic care model ensures optimum diabetes self-management support and improves long-term clinical and health outcomes in diabetes patients. The public sector primary care system in India provides services free of cost to beneficiaries but lacks patient-centered care that undermines diabetes self-management education and support. Furthermore, factors like poor patient knowledge of diabetes, suboptimal medication adherence, persistent clinical inertia, lack of data for monitoring and evaluation through clinical audit worsens the standards of diabetes care in primary care settings of India. There is a need for government initiatives to be directed towards the provision of comprehensive outpatient care that is inclusive of uninterrupted supply of drugs, provision of essential laboratory investigators, training and availability of qualified diabetes educators and availability of specialist support when required. Furthermore, the integration of depression screening and smoking cessation services at the primary care level is warranted.

Outcomes among 10,314 hospitalized COVID-19 patients at a tertiary care government hospital in Delhi, India

A significant proportion of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) require timely hospitalization to reduce the risk of complications and mortality. We describe the trends of the age and gender stratified outcomes among hospitalized COVID-19 patients with moderate to severe illness at the largest dedicated tertiary care COVID-19 government hospital in New Delhi, India. A retrospective cohort study through secondary data analysis from in-patient hospital data of patients admitted from April 1 to November 15, 2020 was conducted. The data of 10,314 laboratory-confirmed patients with COVID-19 was analyzed, of which 8899 (86.28%) were discharged after recovery, and 1415 (13.72%) died. The mean (SD) age of the hospitalized patients was 46.43 (18.74) years (n = 10,309) including 6031 (58.50%) male and 4278 (41.50%) female patients (n = 10,309). On bivariate analysis, increasing age was associated with significantly higher odds of mortality in both gender (p < .001). The mortality rate in female patients was lower (11.92%) compared with male patients (15.75%) (p = .675). However, elderly women had the highest odds of mortality (p < .001), indicating the possible role of delayed health seeking behavior, secondary to familial, and social neglect. Mortality in the patients with COVID-19 also occurred early after admission suggesting rapid deterioration, delayed reporting by patients, or their late referral from other health facilities. However, the overall statewide recovery rate showed steady improvement since the onset of the pandemic. In contrast, the recovery rate among the moderate-severe cases that were hospitalized at this tertiary care center during the same period reflected a lower nonspecific zigzag pattern indicating limited effectiveness of the COVID-19 treatment regimens.

The seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in Delhi, India: a repeated population-based seroepidemiological study

BACKGROUND

Three rounds of a repeated cross-sectional serosurvey to estimate the change in seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) were conducted from August to October 2020 in the state of Delhi, India, in the general population ≥5 y of age.

METHODS

The selection of participants was through a multistage sampling design from all 11 districts and 280 wards of the city-state, with multistage allocation proportional to population size. The blood samples were screened using immunoglobulin G (IgG) enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kits.

RESULTS

We observed a total of 4267 (N=150 46), 4311 (N=17 409) and 3829 (N=15 015) positive tests indicative of the presence of IgG antibody to SARS-CoV-2 during the August, September and October 2020 serosurvey rounds, respectively. The adjusted seroprevalence declined from 28.39% (95% confidence interval [CI] 27.65 to 29.14) in August to 24.08% (95% CI 23.43 to 24.74) in September and 24.71% (95% CI 24.01 to 25.42) in October. On adjusted analysis, participants with lower per capita income, living in slums or overcrowded households and those with diabetes comorbidity had significantly higher statistical odds of having antibody positivity (p<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Nearly one in four residents in Delhi, India ≥5 y of age had the SARS-CoV-2 infection during August-October 2020.

Prevalence and determinants of contraceptive method use among Bangladeshi women of reproductive age: a multilevel multinomial analysis

BACKGROUND

Much scholarly debate has centered on Bangladesh's family planning program (FPP) in lowering the country's fertility rate. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of using modern and traditional contraceptive methods and to determine the factors that explain the contraceptive methods use.

METHODS

The study used data from the 2017-18 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS), which included 11,452 (weighted) women aged 15-49 years in the analysis. Multilevel multinomial logistic regression was used to identify the factors associated with the contraceptive method use.

RESULTS

The prevalence of using modern contraceptive methods was 72.16%, while 14.58% of women used traditional methods in Bangladesh. In comparison to women in the 15-24 years age group, older women (35-49 years) were more unwilling to use modern contraceptive methods (RRR: 0.28, 95% CI: 0.21-0.37). Women who had at least a living child were more likely to use both traditional and modern contraceptive methods (RRR: 4.37, 95% CI: 3.12-6.11). Similarly, given birth in the previous 5 years influenced women 2.41 times more to use modern method compared to those who had not given birth (RRR: 2.41, 95% CI: 1.65-3.52). Husbands'/partners' decision for using/not using contraception were positively associated with the use of both traditional (RRR: 4.49, 95% CI: 3.04-6.63) and modern methods (RRR: 3.01, 95% CI: 2.15-4.17) rather than using no method. This study suggests rural participants were 21% less likely to utilize modern methods than urban participants (RRR: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.67-0.94).

CONCLUSION

Bangladesh remains a focus for contraceptive use, as it is one of the most populous countries in South Asia. To lower the fertility rate, policymakers may design interventions to improve awareness especially targeting uneducated, and rural reproductive women in Bangladesh. The study also highlights the importance of male partners' decision-making regarding women's contraceptive use.

Effective Contact Tracing for COVID-19 Using Mobile Phones: An Ethical Analysis of the Mandatory Use of the Aarogya Setu Application in India

Several digital contact tracing smartphone applications have been developed worldwide in the effort to combat COVID-19 that warn users of potential exposure to infectious patients and generate big data that helps in early identification of hotspots, complementing the manual tracing operations. In most democracies, concerns over a breach in data privacy have resulted in severe opposition toward their mandatory adoption. This paper examines India as a noticeable exception, where the compulsory installation of such a government-backed application, the "Aarogya Setu" has been deemed mandatory in certain situations. We argue that the mandatory app requirement constitutes a legitimate public health intervention during a public health emergency.

Time trends in tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is the leading cause of death from a single infectious agent among the HIV-negative population and ranks first among the HIV-positive population. However, few studies have assessed tuberculosis trends in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) or with an emphasis on HIV status. This study assesses the time trends of tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS with an emphasis on HIV status from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We obtained tuberculosis data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study (GBD 2019). We calculated the relative proportion of tuberculosis to all communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases by HIV status across the BRICS. We used age-period-cohort modelling to estimate cohort and period effects in tuberculosis from 1990 to 2019, and calculated net drift (overall annual percentage change), local drift (annual percentage change in each age group), longitudinal age curves (expected longitudinal age-specific rate), and period (cohort) relative risks.

FINDINGS

There were 549,522 tuberculosis deaths across the BRICS in 2019, accounting for 39.3% of global deaths. Among HIV-negative populations, the age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) of tuberculosis in BRICS remained far higher than that of high-income Asia Pacific countries, especially in India (36.1 per 100 000 in 2019, 95% UI [30.7, 42.6]) and South Africa (40.1 per 100 000 in 2019, 95% UI [36.8, 43.7]). China had the fastest ASMR reduction across the BRICS, while India maintained the largest tuberculosis death numbers with an annual decrease much slower than China's (-4.1 vs -8.0%). Among HIV-positive populations, the ASMR in BRICS surged from 0.24 per 100 000 in 1990 to 5.63 per 100 000 in 2005, and then dropped quickly to 1.70 per 100 000 in 2019. Brazil was the first country to reverse the upward trend of HIV/AIDS-tuberculosis (HIV-TB) mortality in 1995, and achieved the most significant reduction (-3.32% per year). The HIV-TB mortality in South Africa has realised much progress since 2006, but still has the heaviest HIV-TB burden across the BRICS (ASMR: 70.0 per 100 000 in 2019). We also found unfavourable trends among HIV-negative middle-aged (35-55) adults of India, men over 50 in the HIV-negative population and whole HIV-positive population of South Africa, and women aged 45-55 years of Russia. China had little progress in its HIV-positive population with worsening period risks from 2010 to 2019, and higher risks in the younger cohorts born after 1980.

INTERPRETATION

BRICS' actions on controlling tuberculosis achieved positive results, but the overall improvements were less than those in high-income Asia Pacific countries. BRICS and other high-burden countries should strengthen specified public health approaches and policies targeted at different priority groups in each country.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China (82073573; 72074009), Peking University Global Health and Infectious Diseases Group.

Achieving TB elimination in India: The role of latent TB management

The elimination of Tuberculosis (TB) in settings with a high dual burden of active and latent TB is one of the most important public health challenges of the 21st century. India has the highest TB burden in the world and nearly 40% of the population being infected with TB. There also exist large often overlapping socially and medically vulnerable populations like the PLHIV, pediatric TB contacts, children with protein-energy malnutrition, homeless people, workers in silica industry and adults with low BMI. A significantly higher risk of progression into active tubercular disease exists in those with compromised immune or nutritional status. It is uncertain if global TB elimination targets can be achieved in the absence of aggressive LTBI treatment strategies for interrupting the chain of transmission of the disease. India hence needs to accelerate and prioritize capacity building in latent TB research. A research agenda is outlined for generating evidence towards the evolution of critical evidence-based policy for LTBI management under Indian health settings.