Explainable artificial intelligence models for predicting risk of suicide using health administrative data in Quebec

Suicide is a complex, multidimensional event, and a significant challenge for prevention globally. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have emerged to harness large-scale datasets to enhance risk detection. In order to trust and act upon the predictions made with ML, more intuitive user interfaces must be validated. Thus, Interpretable AI is one of the crucial directions which could allow policy and decision makers to make reasonable and data-driven decisions that can ultimately lead to better mental health services planning and suicide prevention. This research aimed to develop sex-specific ML models for predicting the population risk of suicide and to interpret the models. Data were from the Quebec Integrated Chronic Disease Surveillance System (QICDSS), covering up to 98% of the population in the province of Quebec and containing data for over 20,000 suicides between 2002 and 2019. We employed a case-control study design. Individuals were considered cases if they were aged 15+ and had died from suicide between January 1st, 2002, and December 31st, 2019 (n = 18339). Controls were a random sample of 1% of the Quebec population aged 15+ of each year, who were alive on December 31st of each year, from 2002 to 2019 (n = 1,307,370). We included 103 features, including individual, programmatic, systemic, and community factors, measured up to five years prior to the suicide events. We trained and then validated the sex-specific predictive risk model using supervised ML algorithms, including Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Multilayer perceptron (MLP). We computed operating characteristics, including sensitivity, specificity, and Positive Predictive Value (PPV). We then generated receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to predict suicides and calibration measures. For interpretability, Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) was used with the global explanation to determine how much the input features contribute to the models' output and the largest absolute coefficients. The best sensitivity was 0.38 with logistic regression for males and 0.47 with MLP for females; the XGBoost Classifier with 0.25 for males and 0.19 for females had the best precision (PPV). This study demonstrated the useful potential of explainable AI models as tools for decision-making and population-level suicide prevention actions. The ML models included individual, programmatic, systemic, and community levels variables available routinely to decision makers and planners in a public managed care system. Caution shall be exercised in the interpretation of variables associated in a predictive model since they are not causal, and other designs are required to establish the value of individual treatments. The next steps are to produce an intuitive user interface for decision makers, planners and other stakeholders like clinicians or representatives of families and people with live experience of suicidal behaviors or death by suicide. For example, how variations in the quality of local area primary care programs for depression or substance use disorders or increased in regional mental health and addiction budgets would lower suicide rates.

Treatment with psychostimulants and atomoxetine in people with psychotic disorders: reassessing the risk of clinical deterioration in a real-world setting

BACKGROUND

Although attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is often comorbid with schizophrenia spectrum and other psychotic disorders (SZSPD), concerns about an increased risk of psychotic events have limited its treatment with either psychostimulants or atomoxetine.

AIMS

To examine whether the risk of hospital admission for psychosis in people with SZSPD was increased during the year following the introduction of such medications compared with the year before.

METHOD

This was a retrospective cohort study using Quebec (Canada) administrative health registries, including all Quebec residents with a public prescription drug insurance plan and a diagnosis of psychotic disorder, defined by relevant ICD-9 or ICD-10 codes, who initiated either methylphenidate, amphetamines or atomoxetine, between January 2010 and December 2016, in combination with antipsychotic medication. The primary outcome was time to hospital admission for psychosis within 1 year of initiation. State sequence analysis was also used to visualise admission trajectories for psychosis in the year following initiation of these medications, compared with the previous year.

RESULTS

Out of 2219 individuals, 1589 (71.6%) initiated methylphenidate, 339 (15.3%) amphetamines and 291 (13.1%) atomoxetine during the study period. After adjustment, the risk of hospital admission for psychosis was decreased during the 12 months following the introduction of these medications when used in combination with antipsychotics (adjusted HR = 0.36, 95% CI 0.24-0.54; P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that, in a real-world setting, when used concurrently with antipsychotic medication, methylphenidate, amphetamines and atomoxetine may be safer than generally believed in individuals with psychotic disorders.

ADHD medications use and risk of mortality and unintentional injuries: a population-based cohort study

We assessed the association between the use of medications for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and the risk of all-cause mortality and unintentional injuries leading to emergency department (ED) or hospital admission in individuals aged ≤24 years with ADHD. We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study between 2000 and 2021 using Quebec health administrative data. Individuals were followed from the first ADHD diagnosis or ADHD medication claim until turning 25, death, or study end. Exposure was defined as mutually exclusive episodes of ADHD medication use and/or coverage under the public provincial drug plan (PDP): 1) covered and not treated with ADHD medication; 2) covered and treated with ADHD medication; and 3) not covered under the PDP. The risk of all-cause mortality and unintentional injuries associated with exposure episodes was estimated using multivariable survival analyses. The cohort included n = 217 192 individuals aged 1-24 years with a male to female ratio of close to 2:1. Compared to non-medication use, episodes of ADHD medication use, overall, were associated with reduced all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, aHR 0.61, 95% CI 0.48-0.76) and unintentional injury leading to ED (0.75, 0.74-0.77) or hospitalisation (0.71, 0.68-0.75). Episodes of stimulants were associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality and reduced risk of unintentional injuries, while episodes with non-stimulants and with both stimulants and non-stimulants concomitantly were associated with reduced risk of unintentional injuries, but not of all-cause mortality. Although residual confounding cannot be excluded, stimulants may have a protective effect in terms of risk of all-cause mortality and both stimulants and non-stimulants for ADHD may reduce the risk of unintentional injuries. The findings of the current study should inform clinical decision making on the choice of starting a pharmacological treatment for ADHD, when a balance needs to be struck between expected benefits and possible risks.

Production and use of rapid responses during the COVID-19 pandemic in Quebec (Canada): perspectives from evidence synthesis producers and decision makers

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has required evidence to be made available more rapidly than usual, in order to meet the needs of decision makers in a timely manner. These exceptional circumstances have caused significant challenges for organizations and teams responsible for evidence synthesis. They had to adapt to provide rapid responses to support decision-making. This study aimed to document (1) the challenges and adaptations made to produce rapid responses during the pandemic, (2) their perceived usefulness, reported use and factors influencing their use and (3) the methodological adaptations made to produce rapid responses.

METHODS

A qualitative study was conducted in 2021 with eight organizations in the health and social services system in Quebec (Canada), including three institutes with a provincial mandate. Data collection included focus groups (n = 9 groups in 8 organizations with 64 participants), interviews with decision makers (n = 12), and a document analysis of COVID-19 rapid responses (n = 128). A thematic analysis of qualitative data (objectives 1 and 2) and a descriptive analysis of documents (objective 3) were conducted.

RESULTS

The results highlight the teams and organizations' agility to deal with the many challenges encountered during the pandemic (e.g., increased their workloads, adoption of new technological tools or work processes, improved collaboration, development of scientific monitoring, adaptation of evidence synthesis methodologies and products). The challenge of balancing rigor and speed was reported by teams and organizations. When available at the right time, rapid responses have been reported as a useful tool for informing or justifying decisions in a context of uncertainty. Several factors that may influence their use were identified (e.g., clearly identify needs, interactions with producers, perceived rigor and credibility, precise and feasible recommendations). Certain trends in the methodological approaches used to speed up the evidence synthesis process were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

This study documented rapid responses producers' experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic in Quebec, and decision makers who requested, consulted, or used these products. Potential areas of improvements are identified such as reinforce coordination, improve communication loops, clarify guidelines or methodological benchmarks, and enhance utility of rapid response products for decision makers.

Predictors of Physician Follow-Up Care Among Patients Affected by an Incident Mental Disorder Episode in Quebec (Canada)

OBJECTIVES

This study identified predictors of prompt (1+ outpatient physician consultations/within 30 days), adequate (3+/90 days) and continuous (5+/365 days) follow-up care from general practitioners (GPs) or psychiatrists among patients with an incident mental disorder (MD) episode.

METHODS

Study data were extracted from the Quebec Integrated Chronic Disease Surveillance System (QICDSS), which covers 98% of the population eligible for health-care services under the Quebec (Canada) Health Insurance Plan. This observational epidemiological study investigating the QICDSS from 1 April 1997 to 31 March 2020, is based on a 23-year patient cohort including 12+ years old patients with an incident MD episode (n = 2,670,133). Risk ratios were calculated using Robust Poisson regressions to measure patient sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, and prior service use, which predicted patients being more or less likely to receive prompt, adequate, or continuous follow-up care after their last incident MD episode, controlling for previous MD episodes, co-occurring disorders, and years of entry into the cohort.

RESULTS

A minority of patients, and fewer over time, received physician follow-up care after an incident MD episode. Women; patients aged 18-64; with depressive or bipolar disorders, co-occurring MDs-substance-related disorders (SRDs) or physical illnesses; those receiving previous GP follow-up care, especially in family medicine groups; patients with higher prior continuity of GP care; and previous high users of emergency departments were more likely to receive follow-up care. Patients living outside the Montreal metropolitan area; those without prior MDs; patients with anxiety, attention deficit hyperactivity, personality, schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders, or SRDs were less likely to receive follow-up care.

CONCLUSION

This study shows that vulnerable patients with complex clinical characteristics and those with better previous GP care were more likely to receive prompt, adequate or continuous follow-up care after an incident MD episode. Overall, physician follow-up care should be greatly improved.

Prenatal diagnosis of microcephaly with simplified gyral pattern: series of eight cases

Microcephaly with simplified gyral pattern (MSG) is an intrinsic genetic central nervous system disorder, characterized by microcephaly (a reduction of brain volume) and a simplified gyral pattern (a reduced number of gyri and shallow sulci associated with normal cortical thickness and neuroanatomical architecture), related to a reduced number of neuronal progenitors in the germinal matrix. We report the first prenatal series of MSG and define the prenatal imaging pattern, which should inform diagnosis and guide prenatal counseling in cases of fetal microcephaly. In this single-center retrospective study of fetuses with MSG, we assessed features on ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), as well as genetic and neuropathological/postnatal data. We included eight patients who had been referred following observation of microcephaly. Ultrasound examination confirmed microcephaly, with a mean growth delay in head circumference of 3.4 weeks, associated with both a lack of gyration and a lack of opercularization of the Sylvian fissure and without any extracephalic anomaly. Fetal brain MRI confirmed lack of gyration with normal cortical thickness and normal intensity of the white matter in all cases. These MRI features led to exclusion of migration/corticogenesis disorders (lissencephaly/polymicrogyria), instead suggesting MSG. The posterior fossa was normal in seven of the eight cases. The corpus callosum was thin in four cases, hypoplastic in two and dysgenetic in two. In four cases, the pregnancy was terminated. The diagnosis of MSG was confirmed from neuropathological and postnatal MRI data. MSG was associated with a genetic diagnosis of RTTN (n = 1) and ASPM (n = 2) biallelic variants in three of the six cases in which genetic work-up was performed. Mild or moderate intellectual deficit with speech delay was present in the three surviving children who were at least 5 years of age at their last examination, without seizures. In conclusion, in the presence of isolated fetal microcephaly with lack of gyration on ultrasound, fetal cerebral MRI is key to diagnosing MSG, which, in the majority of cases, affects the supratentorial space exclusively, and to ruling out other cortical malformations that show a similar sonographic pattern. In addition to imaging, genetic assessment may guide prenatal counseling, since the prenatal prognosis of MSG is different from that of both diffuse polymicrogyria and lissencephaly. © 2023 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

The Signature Biobank: A longitudinal biopsychosocial repository of psychiatric emergency patients

The Signature Biobank is a longitudinal repository of biospecimen, psychological, sociodemographic, and diagnostic data that was created in 2012. The Signature Consortium represents a group of approximately one hundred Quebec-based transdisciplinary clinicians and research scientists with various expertise in the field of psychiatry. The objective of the Signature Biobank is to investigate the multi-faceted underpinnings of psychiatric disorders among patients in crisis. The Signature Consortium is expanding and includes new active members that seek to highlight the contributions made by Signature Biobank since its inception. This article details our research protocol, directions, and summarizes contributions. To date, we have collected biological samples (n = 1,986), and questionnaire data (n = 2,085) from psychiatric emergency patients of the Institut universitaire en santé mentale de Montréal (Quebec, Canada), with a large proportion from whom both data types were collected (n = 1,926). In addition to this, a subsample of patients was followed-up at hospital discharge, and two additional outpatient clinic appointments (n = 958 with at least one follow-up). In addition, a socio-demographically matched comparison group of individuals who were not hospitalized for psychiatric disorders (n = 149) was recruited from the surrounding catchment area. To summarize, a systematic review of the literature shows that the Signature Biobank has contributed to better characterizing psychiatric comorbidities, biological profiles, and psychosocial functioning across some of the most common psychiatric disorders, including psychosis, mood, anxiety, and substance use disorders. The Signature Biobank is now one of the world's largest repositories of data collected from patients receiving care at a psychiatric emergency unit.

Socioeconomic inequalities, psychosocial stressors at work and physician-diagnosed depression: Time-to-event mediation analysis in the presence of time-varying confounders

OBJECTIVES

There is evidence that both low socioeconomic status (SES) and psychosocial stressors at work (PSW) increase risk of depression, but prospective studies on the contribution of PSW to the socioeconomic gradient of depression are still limited.

METHODS

Using a prospective cohort of Quebec white-collar workers (n = 9188 participants, 50% women), we estimated randomized interventional analogues of the natural direct effect of SES indicators at baseline (education level, household income, occupation type and a combined measure) and of their natural indirect effects mediated through PSW (job strain and effort-reward imbalance (ERI) measured at the follow-up in 1999-2001) on incident physician-diagnosed depression.

RESULTS

During 3 years of follow-up, we identified 469 new cases (women: 33.1 per 1000 person-years; men: 16.8). Mainly in men, low SES was a risk factor for depression [education: hazard ratio 1.72 (1.08-2.73); family income: 1.67 (1.04-2.67); occupational type: 2.13 (1.08-4.19)]. In the entire population, exposure to psychosocial stressors at work was associated with increased risk of depression [job strain: 1.42 (1.14-1.78); effort-reward imbalance (ERI) 1.73 (1.41-2.12)]. The estimated indirect effects of socioeconomic indicators on depression mediated through job strain ranged from 1.01 (0.99-1.03) to 1.04 (0.98-1.10), 4-15% of total effects, and for low reward from 1.02 (1.00-1.03) to 1.06 (1.01-1.11), 10-15% of total effects.

DISCUSSION

Our study suggests that PSW only slightly mediate the socioeconomic gradient of depression, but that socioeconomic inequalities, especially among men, and PSW both increase the incidence of depression.

Arterial Spin-Labeling in the Assessment of Pediatric Nontraumatic Orbital Lesions

Benign and malignant pediatric orbital lesions can sometimes have overlapping features on conventional MR imaging sequences. MR imaging of 27 children was retrospectively reviewed to describe the signal of some common pediatric extraocular orbital lesions on arterial spin-labeling and to evaluate whether this sequence helps to discriminate malignant from benign masses, with or without ADC value measurements. Qualitative and quantitative assessments of arterial spin-labeling CBF and ADC were performed. All lesions were classified into 3 arterial spin-labeling perfusion patterns: homogeneous hypoperfusion (pattern 1, n = 15; benign lesions), heterogeneous hyperperfusion (pattern 2, n = 9; cellulitis, histiocytosis, malignant tumors), and homogeneous intense hyperperfusion (pattern 3, n = 3; infantile hemangiomas). Arterial spin-labeling can be a valuable tool to improve the diagnostic confidence of some orbital lesions, including infantile hemangioma. An algorithm is proposed.

Suicidality and mood disorders in psychiatric emergency patients: Results from SBQ-R

Patients with mood disorders are at high risk of suicidality, and emergency departments (ED) are essential in the management of this risk. This study aims to (1) describe the suicidal thoughts and behaviours of patients with mood disorders who come to ED; (2) assess the psychometric properties of the Suicidal Behaviours Questionnaire-Revised (SBQ-R) in a psychiatric ED; and (3) determine the best predictors of suicidality for these patients. A total of 300 participants with mood disorders recruited for the Signature Bank of the Institut universitaire en santé mentale de Montréal (IUSMM) were retained. Suicidality was assessed using the SBQ-R. Other clinical and demographic details were recorded. Bivariate analyses, correlations and multivariate regression analyses were conducted. SBQ-R's internal consistency, construct and convergent validities were also tested. In the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), 53.3% of the sample stated they had suicidal or self-harm thoughts in the last 2 weeks. The mean score obtained at the SBQ-R was 8.3. Multivariate analysis found that SBQ-R scores were associated with depressive symptoms and substance use, especially alcohol, accounting for 44.3% of the model variance. Cronbach's alpha was 0.81 [0.78, 0.84] and factor loadings for items 1-4 were 0.68, 0.88, 0.54, and 0.85, respectively. The confirmatory factor analysis indicated that the model fit the data well. The SBQ-R is a brief and valid instrument that can easily be used in busy emergency departments to assess suicide risk. Depressive symptoms and alcohol use shall also be assessed, as they are determinants of increased risk of suicidality.

A case-control study on predicting population risk of suicide using health administrative data: a research protocol

INTRODUCTION

Suicide has a complex aetiology and is a result of the interaction among the risk and protective factors at the individual, healthcare system and population levels. Therefore, policy and decision makers and mental health service planners can play an important role in suicide prevention. Although a number of suicide risk predictive tools have been developed, these tools were designed to be used by clinicians for assessing individual risk of suicide. There have been no risk predictive models to be used by policy and decision makers for predicting population risk of suicide at the national, provincial and regional levels. This paper aimed to describe the rationale and methodology for developing risk predictive models for population risk of suicide.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A case-control study design will be used to develop sex-specific risk predictive models for population risk of suicide, using statistical regression and machine learning techniques. Routinely collected health administrative data in Quebec, Canada, and community-level social deprivation and marginalisation data will be used. The developed models will be transformed into the models that can be readily used by policy and decision makers. Two rounds of qualitative interviews with end-users and other stakeholders were proposed to understand their views about the developed models and potential systematic, social and ethical issues for implementation; the first round of qualitative interviews has been completed. We included 9440 suicide cases (7234 males and 2206 females) and 661 780 controls for model development. Three hundred and forty-seven variables at individual, healthcare system and community levels have been identified and will be included in least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression for feature selection.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study is approved by the Health Research Ethnics Committee of Dalhousie University, Canada. This study takes an integrated knowledge translation approach, involving knowledge users from the beginning of the process.

Implementing a Suicide Audit in Montreal: Taking Suicide Review Further to Make Concrete Recommendations for Suicide Prevention

OBJECTIVE

A suicide audit was pilot implemented in order to generate recommendations on how to improve suicide prevention.

METHODS

Thirty-nine consecutive suicides that occurred in Montreal, Canada from January to October 2016 were audited. A retrospective analysis of their life trajectory and service utilization was conducted using the psychological autopsy method, which included interviewing suicide-bereaved survivors and examining health and social services records and the coroner's investigation file. A psychosocial and service utilization profile was drawn for each decedent. A multidisciplinary panel reviewed each case summary to identify gaps in terms of individual intervention, provincial public health and social services, and regional programs.

RESULTS

Five main suicide prevention recommendations were made to prevent similar suicides: (1) deploy mobile crisis intervention teams (short-term, high-intensity, home-based treatment) in hospital emergency departments; (2) train primary and specialized mental health care professionals to screen for and manage substance use disorders; and (3) implement public awareness campaigns to encourage help seeking for depression and substance use disorders; (4) access for all, regardless of age, to an effective psychosis treatment program; and (5) provide universal access to a general practitioner, especially for men.

CONCLUSIONS

The suicide audit procedure was implemented effectively and targeted recommendations were generated to prevent similar suicides. However, resistance from medical and hospital quality boards arose during the process, though these could be allayed if regional and provincial authorities actively endorsed the multidisciplinary and multi stakeholders suicide audit process. HighlightsA bottom-up approach to generate recommendations for suicide prevention.Implementation was challenging with resistance to our interdisciplinary approach.The audit needs the support of the regional health department to lift barriers.

Vaillancourt V. The Psychological Health and Work-Family Balance of Ambulatory Care Nurses in the COVID-19 era: A Cross-Sectional Survey

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic impacted nurses’ psychological health and work-family balance, including in ambulatory care settings. The results presented in this article are part of a study aiming to describe and contextualize the psychological health and changes in nurses’ follow-up practices in Quebec (Canada) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Objective: Explore and describe factors that influenced ambulatory care nurses’ psychological health and work-family balance during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Exploratory mixed data cross-sectional study using the SurveyMonkey platform. We collected data from July 2020 to September 2020. The target population comprised all practicing nurses in Quebec whose clinical activities included the follow-up of ambulatory patients, 200 of whom completed the survey.  Results: Multiple linear regression models indicated that anxiety (GAD-7 scores) and depressive symptoms (PHQ-9 scores) were associated with younger age, living alone, worries about transmitting COVID-19, and feeling that one’s work was not coherent with one’s values. Work-family balance was considered more difficult than before the pandemic by 54.5 % of participants. Factors perceived as influencing work-family balance were either related to work conditions (e.g., schedule and time at work, access to work from home, redeployment to another work setting), to family-related responsibilities/tasks or were specific to the pandemic. Discussion and conclusion: Apart from age, the feeling that one’s work was not coherent with their values was the only variable correlated with both GAD-7 and PHQ-9 in multivariate models. Further research should investigate the relationships between sense of coherence, psychological health, and work conditions like schedule flexibility and access to work from home.

Profiles of patients using emergency departments or hospitalized for suicidal behaviors

OBJECTIVES

This study identified profiles of patients with suicidal behaviors, their sociodemographic and clinical correlates, and assessed the risk of death within a 12-month follow-up period.

METHODS

Based on administrative databases, this 5-year study analyzed data on 5064 patients in Quebec who used emergency departments (ED) or were hospitalized for suicidal behaviors over a 2-year period. Latent class analysis was used for patient profiles, bivariate analysis for patient correlates over 2 years, and survival analysis for risk of death within a 12-month follow-up.

RESULTS

Four profiles were identified: high suicidal behaviors and high service use (Profile 1: 23%); low suicidal behaviors and moderate service use (Profile 2: 46%); low suicidal behaviors and low service use (Profile 3: 25%); and high suicidal behaviors and high acute care, but low outpatient care (Profile 4: 6%). Profiles 1 and 4 patients had more serious conditions, with a higher risk of death in Profile 1 versus Profiles 2 and 3. Profile 2 patients had relatively more common mental disorders, and Profile 3 patients had less severe conditions. Profiles 3 and 4 included more men and younger patients.

CONCLUSION

Programs better adapted to patient profiles should be deployed after ED use and hospitalization in coordination with outpatient services.

The 5-year longitudinal diagnostic profile and health services utilization of patients treated with electroconvulsive therapy in Quebec: a population-based study

PURPOSE

Electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) is effective for treating several psychiatric disorders. However, only a minority of patients are treated with ECT. It is of primary importance to characterize their profile for epidemiological purposes and to inform clinical practice. We aimed to characterize the longitudinal profile of psychopathology and services utilization of patients first treated with ECT.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based comparative study using data from a national administrative database in Quebec. Patients who received a first ECT between 2002 and 2016 were compared to controls who were hospitalized in psychiatry but did not receive ECT. We performed descriptive analyses to compare psychiatric diagnoses, domains of psychopathology (internalizing, externalizing and thought/psychotic disorders), medical services and medication use in the 5 years prior to the ECT or hospitalization.

RESULTS

5 080 ECT patients were compared with 179 594 controls. Depressive, anxiety, bipolar and psychotic disorders were more frequent in the ECT group. 96.2% of ECT patients had been diagnosed with depression and 53.8% with a primary psychotic disorder. In the ECT group, 1.0% had been diagnosed exclusively with depression and 47.0% had disorders from that belong to all three domains of psychopathology. Having both internalizing and thought/psychotic disorders was associated with an increased likelihood of receiving ECT vs having internalizing disorders alone (unadjusted OR = 2.93; 95% CI = 2.63, 3.26). All indicators of mental health services utilization showed higher use among ECT patients.

CONCLUSION

Our results provide robust evidence of complex longitudinal psychopathology and extensive services utilization among ECT patients.

Assessment and care of individuals at risk of suicide in Emergency Department: The SecUrgence protocol

Almost half (48,5%) of all individuals who die by suicide visited the Emergency Department (ED) in the year preceding their death by suicide and for almost a third (29,5%) of these individuals, the ED visit occurred within the month preceding their death by suicide. The ED is a key location for suicide prevention. The aim of this study was to develop and reach a consensus on the SecUrgence Protocol, a clinical protocol that intends to assess and provide care for individuals at risk of suicide that present themselves to the ED. This project was conducted in 3 stages: 1) Review of the literature, 2) Development of the list of the protocol statements by a first panel of experts, and 3) Validation, using the Delphi consensus method, on the final statements to include in the SecUrgence Protocol by a second panel of experts. Two rounds of the Delphi questionnaire were conducted until a final consensus of over 75% was reached. The SecUrgence Protocol is a first scientific step towards improving suicide prevention in the ED in Quebec as it was validated by a rigorous research process that included a consensus by all key stakeholders.

Long term course and outcome of first episode schizophrenia: a 27-to-31-year follow-up

PURPOSE

To describe long term clinical and functional outcomes of schizophrenia in a developed country.

METHOD

Long term longitudinal study of clinical and functional outcomes of incidence cohort of all consecutive admissions for a first hospitalization for schizophrenia between 1983 and 1987 in Montreal, Canada (n = 142). Data collection was conducted at admission, 5 years, 10-16 years and 27-31 years follow-up by reviewing hospital charts and government linked health administrative databases.

RESULTS

One fifth of patients were never re-hospitalized and 35% were still in contact with the same catchment area psychiatric services. Thirty-four (24%) died on average at 45.5 years. Fourteen (9.9%) died by suicide; half of them did so 10 years after their first hospitalization. Over 20% were exposed to clozapine and nearly 50% to long-acting injectable antipsychotic medication. There were no inmates; an estimated one fifth might be inferred to be living in supervised residential settings and the rest lived alone or with family. Approximately three quarters of the patients under 65 were receiving social assistance benefits at study's end. From 15 to 25% might have been employed (supported or competitive employment).

CONCLUSION

This study confirms that the long-term course of schizophrenia is heterogenous and mostly positive with most patients living in the community, although a significant proportion need long term support and an important proportion experience premature death. To mitigate the persistent suicide risk and to respond to their need for support, continuous mental health professional's involvement is required for many.

Investigating characteristics of patients with mental disorders to predict out-patient physician follow-up within 30 days of emergency department discharge

BACKGROUND

Prompt follow-up at emergency department discharge is a key indicator of healthcare quality and patient recovery. To improve services, better knowledge of predictors for out-patient physician follow-up within 30 days after discharge is needed.

AIMS

We investigated clinical and sociodemographic characteristics and service use to predict patients with mental disorders with or without physician follow-up after emergency department use.

METHOD

This study used data extracted from clinical administrative databases for 9514 patients who attended an emergency department in Quebec (Canada) in 2014-2015 (index visit) for mental health reasons. Patient clinical and sociodemographic characteristics from 2012-2013 to 2014-2015, and service use 12 months before the index visit, were investigated as predictors for patients with or without prompt follow-up, using hierarchical logistic regression.

RESULTS

Two-thirds of patients did not receive prompt physician follow-up. Patients with level 1-2 illness acuity at emergency department triage (needing immediate or urgent care); those with adjustment or bipolar disorders, but without alcohol-related disorders (clinical characteristics); and patients with higher continuity of physician care, more psychosocial interventions in community healthcare centres and prior hospital admission (service use characteristics) were more likely to receive prompt out-patient follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Access to medical care was poor, considering the high needs of this population. The role of the emergency department as a gateway for accessing out-patient care may be strengthened by strategies like screening, brief intervention including motivational treatments, brief case management offered by emergency department staff, timely referral to services and better post-discharge planning. Collaborative care for patients attending emergency departments should also be improved.

Comparative effectiveness and safety of antipsychotic drugs in patients with schizophrenia initiating or reinitiating treatment: A Real-World Observational Study

OBJECTIVE

To compare the effectiveness and safety of various second-generation antipsychotics (SGAs), newer oral and long-acting injectable (LAI) SGAs, and first-generation antipsychotics (FGAs) treatments in patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder (SCZ).

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included medical administrative information for patients with a diagnosis of SCZ living in Quebec (Canada), initiating or reinitiating at least one antipsychotic (AP) drug (with a clearance baseline period of 12 months without any APs). Effectiveness was defined by a reduced risk of hospitalization for mental disorder and discontinuation, and safety by a reduced risk of all-cause death and hospitalization for non-mental disorder, 2 years after AP initiation or reinitiation. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the events associated with different antipsychotics compared with oral olanzapine.

RESULTS

The study cohort included 19,615 patients initiating or reinitiating an antipsychotic drug between January 2006 and December 2015. Results showed better effectiveness of clozapine (adjusted HR 0.36, 95% CI 0.30-0.42, p < 0.0001) and LAI SGAs (adjusted HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.51-0.61, p < 0.0001) compared with oral olanzapine when adding discontinuation to hospitalizations for mental disorder as a composite measure of effectiveness, as opposed to oral FGAs (adjusted HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.27-1.46, p < 0.0001) and LAI FGAs (adjusted HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.12-1.32, p < 0.0001). Most APs were as safe as oral olanzapine.

CONCLUSION

The effectiveness of LAI SGAs and clozapine appears to justify their use and are as safe as a recognized treatment (oral olanzapine) in Quebec (Canada).

Antipsychotic utilization trajectories three years after initiating or reinitiating treatment of schizophrenia: A state sequence analysis approach

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to describe the utilization patterns of antipsychotic (AP) medication in patients with schizophrenia (SCZ), three years after initiating or reinitiating a given AP.

METHODS

Based on medico-administrative information on patients living in Quebec (Canada), this retrospective cohort study included 6444 patients with a previous diagnosis of SCZ initiating or reinitiating AP medication between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2014, with continuous coverage by public drug insurance. For each day of follow-up (1092 days), patient was either exposed to one of the chosen categories of APs, or to none. This patient's sequence of AP exposure overtime has been referred to as the "antipsychotic utilization trajectory". These trajectories were analyzed using a State Sequence Analysis, an innovative approach which provides useful visual information on the continuation and discontinuation patterns of use over time.

RESULTS

Clozapine and long-acting injectable second-generation APs had the best continuation and discontinuation patterns over 3 years among all other groups, including less switching of APs, while oral first-generation APs had the poorest patterns. These findings were comparable among incident and non-incident cohorts. Oral second-generation antipsychotics, excluding clozapine, had a poorer continuation and discontinuation pattern than long-acting injectable antipsychotics.

CONCLUSION

State Sequence Analysis provides a clear representation of treatment adherence in comparison with dichotomous indicators of adherence or discontinuation. Consequently, this innovative method has shed light on the impact of the AP chosen to initiate or reinitiate treatment in SCZ, which has been identified as a key factor for long-term treatment continuation and discontinuation.

Morbidities and mortality of diagnosed attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) over the youth lifespan: A population-based retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the prevalence of ADHD, and related comorbidities, mortality, and type of health service use among children and young adults, using different case definitions.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study between 2000 and 2018, using the Quebec Integrated Chronic Disease Surveillance System (QICDSS) database. All residents aged less than 25 years eligible for health insurance coverage were included. We compared outcomes of three indicators (morbidity, services use and mortality) according two different algorithms of ADHD definitions, to the general population.

RESULTS

The cumulative prevalence of ADHD has risen steadily over the past decade, reaching 12.6% in 2017-2018. People with ADHD have a higher prevalence of psychiatric comorbidities, make greater use of medical, mental health services, and are hospitalized more often. The comparison of prevalence between the two algorithms and the general population for the three indicators showed that the cohort having one claim was very close to that with two or more, and statistically significant higher to that of people without ADHD.

CONCLUSION

This finding support that a single claim algorithm for ADHD can be used for case definition. More research is needed on the impact of potentially effective treatments in improving consequences of ADHD.