Development and evaluation of a training program on non-communicable diseases to empower community health workers in rural India

Objective

We developed and evaluated a training program for Accredited Social Health Activists (ASHAs), female community health workers (CHWs) in India, on non-communicable diseases (NCDs).

Methods

A 5-day training program, developed using government-approved manuals, was tested in a randomised controlled trial in the Tehri-Garhwal district. Quantitative comparisons were undertaken using Student's t-test and two-way ANOVA. ASHAs in the intervention group were asked questions about new skills learnt.

Results

Thirty-six ASHAs (20 intervention, 16 controls) participated (response rate 75.0%). Mean pre-test knowledge score was 43.3/100 points (95% CI 36.7-49.9) for the intervention group and 44.4 (38.9-49.9) for controls. The mean post-test knowledge score increased more in the intervention group (48.5-point increase; P < 0.0001), than in controls (9.8-point increase, P = 0.016; ANOVA interaction term (time*allocation) P < 0.0001). ASHAs in the intervention group reported learning new skills for detecting NCDs.

Conclusion

The training program increased knowledge of ASHAs on NCDs and improved their skills to detect NCDs. Our development and testing process for this training program, coupled with open-source resources, fosters innovation and collaboration in managing NCDs in LMICs.

Innovation

Our novel and adaptable training program incorporates interactive elements, case studies, and real-world scenarios to augment routine communication between ASHAs and community members for preventing NCDs.

Demographic disparities in the incidence and case fatality of subarachnoid haemorrhage: an 18-year nationwide study from New Zealand

Background

Although the incidence and case-fatality of subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) vary within countries, few countries have reported nationwide rates, especially for multi-ethnic populations. We assessed the nationwide incidence and case-fatality of SAH in New Zealand (NZ) and explored variations by sex, district, ethnicity and time.

Methods

We used administrative health data from the national hospital discharge and cause-of-death collections to identify hospitalised and fatal non-hospitalised aneurysmal SAHs in NZ between 2001 and 2018. For validation, we compared these administrative data to those of two prospective Auckland Regional Community Stroke Studies. We subsequently estimated the incidence and case-fatality of SAH and calculated adjusted rate ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals to assess differences between sub-populations.

Findings

Over 78,187,500 cumulative person-years, we identified 5371 SAHs (95% sensitivity and 85% positive predictive values) resulting in an annual age-standardised nationwide incidence of 8.2/100,000. In total, 2452 (46%) patients died within 30 days after SAH. Compared to European/others, Māori had greater incidence (RR = 2.23 (2.08-2.39)) and case-fatality (RR = 1.14 (1.06-1.22)), whereas SAH incidence was also greater in Pacific peoples (RR = 1.40 (1.24-1.59)) but lesser in Asians (RR = 0.79 (0.71-0.89)). By domicile, age-standardised SAH incidence varied between 6.3-11.5/100,000 person-years and case fatality between 40 and 57%. Between 2001 and 2018, the SAH incidence of NZ decreased by 34% and the case fatality by 12%.

Interpretation

Since the incidence and case-fatality of SAH varies considerably between regions and ethnic groups, caution is advised when generalising findings from focused geographical locations for public health planning, especially in multi-ethnic populations.

Funding

NZ Health Research Council.

Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Up-to-date estimates of stroke burden and attributable risks and their trends at global, regional, and national levels are essential for evidence-based health care, prevention, and resource allocation planning. We aimed to provide such estimates for the period 1990-2021.

METHODS

We estimated incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 people per year for overall stroke, ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, and subarachnoid haemorrhage, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. We also calculated burden of stroke attributable to 23 risk factors and six risk clusters (air pollution, tobacco smoking, behavioural, dietary, environmental, and metabolic risks) at the global and regional levels (21 GBD regions and Socio-demographic Index [SDI] quintiles), using the standard GBD methodology. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.

FINDINGS

In 2021, stroke was the third most common GBD level 3 cause of death (7·3 million [95% UI 6·6-7·8] deaths; 10·7% [9·8-11·3] of all deaths) after ischaemic heart disease and COVID-19, and the fourth most common cause of DALYs (160·5 million [147·8-171·6] DALYs; 5·6% [5·0-6·1] of all DALYs). In 2021, there were 93·8 million (89·0-99·3) prevalent and 11·9 million (10·7-13·2) incident strokes. We found disparities in stroke burden and risk factors by GBD region, country or territory, and SDI, as well as a stagnation in the reduction of incidence from 2015 onwards, and even some increases in the stroke incidence, death, prevalence, and DALY rates in southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania, countries with lower SDI, and people younger than 70 years. Globally, ischaemic stroke constituted 65·3% (62·4-67·7), intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 28·8% (28·3-28·8), and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 5·8% (5·7-6·0) of incident strokes. There were substantial increases in DALYs attributable to high BMI (88·2% [53·4-117·7]), high ambient temperature (72·4% [51·1 to 179·5]), high fasting plasma glucose (32·1% [26·7-38·1]), diet high in sugar-sweetened beverages (23·4% [12·7-35·7]), low physical activity (11·3% [1·8-34·9]), high systolic blood pressure (6·7% [2·5-11·6]), lead exposure (6·5% [4·5-11·2]), and diet low in omega-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (5·3% [0·5-10·5]).

INTERPRETATION

Stroke burden has increased from 1990 to 2021, and the contribution of several risk factors has also increased. Effective, accessible, and affordable measures to improve stroke surveillance, prevention (with the emphasis on blood pressure, lifestyle, and environmental factors), acute care, and rehabilitation need to be urgently implemented across all countries to reduce stroke burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

General and abdominal adiposity and hypertension in eight world regions: a pooled analysis of 837 population-based studies with 7·5 million participants

BACKGROUND

Adiposity can be measured using BMI (which is based on weight and height) as well as indices of abdominal adiposity. We examined the association between BMI and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) within and across populations of different world regions and quantified how well these two metrics discriminate between people with and without hypertension.

METHODS

We used data from studies carried out from 1990 to 2023 on BMI, WHtR and hypertension in people aged 20-64 years in representative samples of the general population in eight world regions. We graphically compared the regional distributions of BMI and WHtR, and calculated Pearson's correlation coefficients between BMI and WHtR within each region. We used mixed-effects linear regression to estimate the extent to which WHtR varies across regions at the same BMI. We graphically examined the prevalence of hypertension and the distribution of people who have hypertension both in relation to BMI and WHtR, and we assessed how closely BMI and WHtR discriminate between participants with and without hypertension using C-statistic and net reclassification improvement (NRI).

FINDINGS

The correlation between BMI and WHtR ranged from 0·76 to 0·89 within different regions. After adjusting for age and BMI, mean WHtR was highest in south Asia for both sexes, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. Mean WHtR was lowest in central and eastern Europe for both sexes, in the high-income western region for women, and in Oceania for men. Conversely, to achieve an equivalent WHtR, the BMI of the population of south Asia would need to be, on average, 2·79 kg/m2 (95% CI 2·31-3·28) lower for women and 1·28 kg/m2 (1·02-1·54) lower for men than in the high-income western region. In every region, hypertension prevalence increased with both BMI and WHtR. Models with either of these two adiposity metrics had virtually identical C-statistics and NRIs for every region and sex, with C-statistics ranging from 0·72 to 0·81 and NRIs ranging from 0·34 to 0·57 in different region and sex combinations. When both BMI and WHtR were used, performance improved only slightly compared with using either adiposity measure alone.

INTERPRETATION

BMI can distinguish young and middle-aged adults with higher versus lower amounts of abdominal adiposity with moderate-to-high accuracy, and both BMI and WHtR distinguish people with or without hypertension. However, at the same BMI level, people in south Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa, have higher WHtR than in the other regions.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council and UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK).

Determining the Optimal Methodology for Identifying Incident Stroke Deaths Using Administrative Datasets Within Australia

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Quantifying stroke incidence and mortality is crucial for disease surveillance and health system planning. Administrative data offer a cost-effective alternative to "gold standard" population-based studies. However, the optimal methodology for establishing stroke deaths from administrative data remains unclear. We aimed to determine the optimal method for identifying stroke-related deaths in administrative datasets as the fatal component of stroke incidence, comparing counts derived using underlying and all causes of death (CoD).

METHOD

Using whole-population multijurisdictional person-level linked data from hospital and death datasets from South Australia, the Northern Territory, and Western Australia, we identified first-ever stroke events between 2012 and 2015, using underlying CoD and all CoD to identify fatal stroke counts. We determined the 28-day case fatality for both counts and compared results with gold standard Australian population-based stroke incidence studies.

RESULTS

The total number of incident stroke events was 16,150 using underlying CoD and 18,074 using all CoD. Case fatality was 24.7% and 32.7% using underlying and all CoD, respectively. Case fatality using underlying CoD was similar to that observed in four Australian "gold standard" population-based studies (20%-24%).

CONCLUSIONS

Underlying CoD generates fatal incident stroke estimates more consistent with population-based studies than estimates based on stroke deaths identified from all-cause fields in death registers.

First stroke incidence, causes, treatments, and outcomes for Aboriginal Peoples in South Australia and the Northern Territory: a pilot prospective study

OBJECTIVE

We performed a pilot stroke incidence study, focused on feasibility and inclusion of the CONSIDER reporting guidelines, to model the design of a future population-based study aiming to definitively determine stroke incidence, antecedents, treatment, and outcomes.

STUDY DESIGN

Prospective stroke incidence study (pilot study).

SETTING, PARTICIPANTS

All people aged 15 years or older who lived in postcode-defined areas of South Australia and Northern Territory (885 472 people, including 45 127 Aboriginal people [5.1%]) diagnosed with stroke for the first time during 1 October - 31 December 2015 and admitted to public hospitals or stroke and transient ischaemic attack clinics.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Feasibility of a prospective population-based stroke incidence study.

RESULTS

Of the 123 participants with first strokes, ten were Aboriginal (8%); the median age of Aboriginal people was 45 years (interquartile range [IQR], 33-55 years), of non-Indigenous people 73 years (IQR, 62-84 years). For Aboriginal people, the age-standardised incidence of stroke was 104 (95% confidence interval [CI], 84-124) per 100 000 person-years, for non-Indigenous people 33 (95% CI, 22-44) per 100 000 person-years. We found that a prospective population-based stroke incidence study in Aboriginal people was feasible, including with respect to establishing an adequate sample size, diagnostic confirmation, identification of incident stroke, confirming stroke subtypes, establishing a stable statistical population, standardising data reporting for comparison with other stroke incidence studies, and ethical research reporting that conforms to CONSIDER guidelines.

CONCLUSIONS

A larger, population-based study of the incidence of stroke in Aboriginal people is both feasible and needed to provide robust estimates of stroke incidence, antecedents, treatments and outcomes to help guide strategies for reducing the risk of and outcomes of stroke in Aboriginal people.

Pre-COVID life expectancy, mortality, and burden of diseases for adults 70 years and older in Australia: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study

Background

The Australian population aged 70 and above is increasing and imposing new challenges for policy makers and providers to deliver accessible, appropriate and affordable health care. We examine pre-COVID patterns of health loss between 1990 and 2019 to inform policies and practices.

Methods

Using the standardised methodology framework and analytical strategies from GBD 2019 methodologies, we estimated mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), life expectancy at age 70 and above (LE-70), and healthy life expectancy (HALE-70) in Australia comparing them globally and with high socio-demographic index (SDI) groups.

Findings

DALY rates have been improving steadily over the past 30 years among Australians aged 70 and above. Decreases in DALY rates were primarily attributed to a fall in YLLs attributable to cardiovascular diseases (60%) and chronic respiratory disorders (30.2%) and transport injuries (56.9%), while the non-fatal burden remained stable from 1990 to 2019. According to the DALY rates, the top five leading causes are ischemic heart disease, Alzheimer's disease, COPD, stroke, and falls, where falls exhibited the largest increase since 1990.

Interpretation

This study provides an in-depth report on the main causes of mortality and disability in Australia's population aged 70 and above. It sheds light on the shifts in burden over three decades, emphasising the need for the Australian health system to enhance its readiness in addressing the escalating demands of an ageing population. These findings establish pre-COVID baseline estimates for Australia's population aged 70 and above, informing healthcare preparedness.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Incidence of thrombocytopenia-associated cerebral venous sinus thrombosis: a population-based study

Objectives

The identification of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia (VITT) followed the recognition of a hitherto uncommon clinical syndrome frequently associated with cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST), termed 'thrombosis with thrombocytopenia' syndrome (TTS). While anecdotally recognised as rare, the background incidence of TTS is unknown. We therefore aimed to investigate the background incidence of CVST with TTS in a large, well-defined population-based CVST cohort.

Methods

We performed an analysis of our previously obtained retrospective population-based cohort of patients with CVST from Adelaide, Australia (2005-2011, comprising an adult population of 953 390) to identify the background incidence of CVST associated with TTS.

Results

Among 105 people with CVST, the background population-based incidence of TTS-associated CVST was 1.2 per million per year (95% CI 0.5 to 2.4). A single case of a severe CVST VITT-like syndrome with multiorgan thrombosis was identified, occurring 3 weeks postrotavirus infection.

Conclusions

In our population-based study, the background incidence of CVST with associated TTS was very low, and the sole clinically severe case with multiorgan thrombosis occurred following a rotaviral precipitant. Our study establishes a benchmark against which to measure future potential 'TTS' clusters and suggests that viruses other than adenovirus may trigger this syndrome.

Risk factors for incident cardiovascular events and their population attributable fractions in rural India: The Rishi Valley Prospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

We prospectively determined incident cardiovascular events and their association with risk factors in rural India.

METHODS

We followed up with 7935 adults from the Rishi Valley Prospective Cohort Study to identify incident cardiovascular events. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, we estimated hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for associations between potential risk factors and cardiovascular events. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) for risk factors were estimated using R ('averisk' package).

RESULTS

Of the 4809 participants without prior cardiovascular disease, 57.7% were women and baseline mean age was 45.3 years. At follow-up (median of 4.9 years, 23,180 person-years [PYs]), 202 participants developed cardiovascular events, equating to an incidence of 8.7 cardiovascular events/1000 PYs. Incidence was greater in those with hypertension (hazard ratio [HR] [95% CI] 1.73 [1.21-2.49], adjusted PAF 18%), diabetes (1.96 [1.15-3.36], 4%) or central obesity (1.77 [1.23, 2.54], 9%) which together accounted for 31% of the PAF. Non-traditional risk factors such as night sleeping hours and number of children accounted for 16% of the PAF.

CONCLUSIONS

Both traditional and non-traditional cardiovascular risk factors are important contributors to incident cardiovascular events in rural India. Interventions targeted to these factors could assist in reducing the incidence of cardiovascular events.

Comparison of the performance of cardiovascular risk prediction tools in rural India: the Rishi Valley Prospective Cohort Study

AIMS

We compared the performance of cardiovascular risk prediction tools in rural India.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We applied the World Health Organization Risk Score (WHO-RS) tools, Australian Risk Score (ARS), and Global risk (Globorisk) prediction tools to participants aged 40-74 years, without prior cardiovascular disease, in the Rishi Valley Prospective Cohort Study, Andhra Pradesh, India. Cardiovascular events during the 5-year follow-up period were identified by verbal autopsy (fatal events) or self-report (non-fatal events). The predictive performance of each tool was assessed by discrimination and calibration. Sensitivity and specificity of each tool for identifying high-risk individuals were assessed using a risk score cut-off of 10% alone or this 10% cut-off plus clinical risk criteria of diabetes in those aged >60 years, high blood pressure, or high cholesterol. Among 2333 participants (10 731 person-years of follow-up), 102 participants developed a cardiovascular event. The 5-year observed risk was 4.4% (95% confidence interval: 3.6-5.3). The WHO-RS tools underestimated cardiovascular risk but the ARS overestimated risk, particularly in men. Both the laboratory-based (C-statistic: 0.68 and χ2: 26.5, P = 0.003) and non-laboratory-based (C-statistic: 0.69 and χ2: 20.29, P = 0.003) Globorisk tools showed relatively good discrimination and agreement. Addition of clinical criteria to a 10% risk score cut-off improved the diagnostic accuracy of all tools.

CONCLUSION

Cardiovascular risk prediction tools performed disparately in a setting of disadvantage in rural India, with the Globorisk performing best. Addition of clinical criteria to a 10% risk score cut-off aids assessment of risk of a cardiovascular event in rural India.

LAY SUMMARY

In a cohort of people without prior cardiovascular disease, tools used to predict the risk of cardiovascular events varied widely in their ability to accurately predict who would develop a cardiovascular event.The Globorisk, and to a lesser extent the ARS, tools could be appropriate for this setting in rural India.Adding clinical criteria, such as sustained high blood pressure, to a cut-off of 10% risk of a cardiovascular event within 5 years could improve identification of individuals who should be monitored closely and provided with appropriate preventive medications.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5-19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median).

FINDINGS

From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness.

INTERPRETATION

The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union.

Incidence of Stroke in Indigenous Populations of Countries With a Very High Human Development Index: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Cardiovascular disease contributes significantly to disease burden among many Indigenous populations. However, data on stroke incidence in Indigenous populations are sparse. We aimed to investigate what is known of stroke incidence in Indigenous populations of countries with a very high Human Development Index (HDI), locating the research in the broader context of Indigenous health.

METHODS

We identified population-based stroke incidence studies published between 1990 and 2022 among Indigenous adult populations of developed countries using PubMed, Embase, and Global Health databases, without language restriction. We excluded non-peer-reviewed sources, studies with fewer than 10 Indigenous people, or not covering a 35- to 64-year minimum age range. Two reviewers independently screened titles, abstracts, and full-text articles and extracted data. We assessed quality using "gold standard" criteria for population-based stroke incidence studies, the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for risk of bias, and CONSIDER criteria for reporting of Indigenous health research. An Indigenous Advisory Board provided oversight for the study.

RESULTS

From 13,041 publications screened, 24 studies (19 full-text articles, 5 abstracts) from 7 countries met the inclusion criteria. Age-standardized stroke incidence rate ratios were greater in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians (1.7-3.2), American Indians (1.2), Sámi of Sweden/Norway (1.08-2.14), and Singaporean Malay (1.7-1.9), compared with respective non-Indigenous populations. Studies had substantial heterogeneity in design and risk of bias. Attack rates, male-female rate ratios, and time trends are reported where available. Few investigators reported Indigenous stakeholder involvement, with few studies meeting any of the CONSIDER criteria for research among Indigenous populations.

DISCUSSION

In countries with a very high HDI, there are notable, albeit varying, disparities in stroke incidence between Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations, although there are gaps in data availability and quality. A greater understanding of stroke incidence is imperative for informing effective societal responses to socioeconomic and health disparities in these populations. Future studies into stroke incidence in Indigenous populations should be designed and conducted with Indigenous oversight and governance to facilitate improved outcomes and capacity building.

REGISTRATION INFORMATION

PROSPERO registration: CRD42021242367.

Age and Sex Disparities in Cardiovascular Risk Factor Management prior to Stroke: Linked Registry and General Practice Data

INTRODUCTION

There is limited evidence about the management of cardiovascular risk factors within 12 months before stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA) in Australian general practices. We evaluated whether age and sex disparities in cardiovascular risk factor management for primary prevention exist in general practice.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study using data from the Australian Stroke Clinical Registry (2014-2018) linked with general practice data from three Primary Health Networks in Victoria, Australia. We included adults who had ≥2 encounters with a general practitioner within 12 months immediately before the first stroke/TIA. Cardiovascular risk factor management within 12 months before stroke/TIA was evaluated in terms of: assessment of risk factors (blood pressure [BP], serum lipids, blood glucose, body weight); prescription of prevention medications (BP-lowering, lipid-lowering, glucose-lowering, antithrombotic agents); and attainment of risk factor targets.

RESULTS

Of 2,880 patients included (median age 76.5 years, 48.4% women), 80.9% were assessed for BP, 49.9% serum lipids, 46.8% blood glucose, and 39.3% body weight. Compared to patients aged 65-84 years, those aged <65 or ≥85 years were less often assessed for risk factors, with women aged ≥85 years assessed for significantly fewer risk factors than their male counterparts. The most prescribed prevention medications were BP-lowering (64.9%) and lipid-lowering agents (42.0%). There were significant sex differences among those aged <65 years (34.7% women vs. 40.2% men) and ≥85 years (34.0% women vs. 44.3% men) for lipid-lowering agents. Risk factor target attainment was generally poorer in men than women, especially among those aged <65 years.

CONCLUSION

Age-sex disparity exists in risk factor management for primary prevention in general practice, and this was more pronounced among younger patients and older women.

Cost-Effectiveness of an Individualised Management Program after Stroke: A Trial-Based Economic Evaluation

INTRODUCTION

Evidence on the cost-effectiveness of comprehensive post-stroke programs is limited. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of an individualised management program (IMP) for stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA).

METHODS

A cost-utility analysis alongside a randomised controlled trial with a 24-month follow-up, from both societal and health system perspectives, was conducted. Adults with stroke/TIA discharged from hospitals were randomised by primary care practice to receive either usual care (UC) or an IMP in addition to UC (intervention). An IMP included stroke-specific nurse-led education and a specialist review of care plans at baseline, 3 months, and 12 months, and telephone reviews by nurses at 6 months and 18 months. Costs were expressed in 2021 Australian dollars (AUD). Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) beyond 12 months were discounted by 5%. The probability of cost-effectiveness of the intervention was determined by quantifying 10,000 bootstrapped iterations of incremental costs and QALYs below the threshold of AUD 50,000/QALY.

RESULTS

Among the 502 participants (65% male, median age 69 years), 251 (50%) were in the intervention group. From a health system perspective, the incremental cost per QALY gained was AUD 53,175 in the intervention compared to the UC group, and the intervention was cost-effective in 46.7% of iterations. From a societal perspective, the intervention was dominant in 52.7% of iterations, with mean per-person costs of AUD 49,045 and 1.352 QALYs compared to mean per-person costs of AUD 51,394 and 1.324 QALYs in the UC group. The probability of the cost-effectiveness of the intervention, from a societal perspective, was 60.5%.

CONCLUSIONS

Care for people with stroke/TIA using an IMP was cost-effective from a societal perspective over 24 months. Economic evaluations of prevention programs need sufficient time horizons and consideration of costs beyond direct healthcare utilisation to demonstrate their value to society.

Cost-Effectiveness of a Government Policy to Incentivise Chronic Disease Management following Stroke: A Modelling Study

INTRODUCTION

Little is known about the cost-effectiveness of government policies that support primary care physicians to provide comprehensive chronic disease management (CDM). This paper aimed to estimate the potential cost-effectiveness of CDM policies over a lifetime for long-time survivors of stroke.

METHODS

A Markov model, using three health states (stable, hospitalised, dead), was developed to simulate the costs and benefits of CDM policies over 30 years (with 1-year cycles). Transition probabilities and costs from a health system perspective were obtained from the linkage of data between the Australian Stroke Clinical Registry (cohort n = 12,368, 42% female, median age 70 years, 45% had CDM claims) and government-held hospital, Medicare, and pharmaceutical claims datasets. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were obtained from a comparable cohort (n = 512, 34% female, median age 69.6 years, 52% had CDM claims) linked with Medicare claims and death data. A 3% discount rate was applied to costs in Australian dollars (AUD, 2016) and QALYs beyond 12 months. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to understand uncertainty.

RESULTS

Per-person average total lifetime costs were AUD 142,939 and 8.97 QALYs for those with a claim, and AUD 103,889 and 8.98 QALYs for those without a claim. This indicates that these CDM policies were costlier without improving QALYs. The probability of cost-effectiveness of CDM policies was 26.1%, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of AUD 50,000/QALY.

CONCLUSION

CDM policies, designed to encourage comprehensive care, are unlikely to be cost-effective for stroke compared to care without CDM. Further research to understand how to deliver such care cost-effectively is needed.

Statistical analysis plan for the Recovery-focused Community support to Avoid readmissions and improve Participation after Stroke randomised controlled clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Unplanned hospital presentations may occur post-stroke due to inadequate preparation for transitioning from hospital to home. The Recovery-focused Community support to Avoid readmissions and improve Participation after Stroke (ReCAPS) trial was designed to test the effectiveness of receiving a 12-week, self-management intervention, comprising personalised goal setting with a clinician and aligned educational/motivational electronic messages. Primary outcome is as follows: self-reported unplanned hospital presentations (emergency department/admission) within 90-day post-randomisation. We present the statistical analysis plan for this trial.

METHODS/DESIGN

Participants are randomised 1:1 in variable block sizes, with stratification balancing by age and level of baseline disability. The sample size was 890 participants, calculated to detect a 10% absolute reduction in the proportion of participants reporting unplanned hospital presentations/admissions, with 80% power and 5% significance level (two sided). Recruitment will end in December 2023 when funding is expended, and the sample size achieved will be used. Logistic regression, adjusted for the stratification variables, will be used to determine the effectiveness of the intervention on the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes will be evaluated using appropriate regression models. The primary outcome analysis will be based on intention to treat. A p-value ≤ 0.05 will indicate statistical significance. An independent Data Safety and Monitoring Committee has routinely reviewed the progress and safety of the trial.

CONCLUSIONS

This statistical analysis plan ensures transparency in reporting the trial outcomes. ReCAPS trial will provide novel evidence on the effectiveness of a digital health support package post-stroke.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov ACTRN12618001468213. Registered on August 31, 2018. SAP version 1.13 (October 12 2023) Protocol version 1.12 (October 12, 2022) SAP revisions Nil.

Risk Factors Associated with Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events after Ischemic Stroke: A Linked Registry Study

INTRODUCTION

Survivors of stroke are at risk of experiencing subsequent major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). We aimed to determine the incidence of, and risk factors for, MACE after first-ever ischemic stroke, by age group (18-64 years vs. ≥65 years).

METHODS

Observational cohort study using patient-level data from the Australian Stroke Clinical Registry (2009-2013), linked with hospital administrative data. We included adults with first-ever ischemic stroke who had no previous acute cardiovascular admissions and followed these patients for 2 years post-discharge, or until the first post-stroke MACE event. A Fine-Gray sub-distribution hazard model, accounting for the competing risk of non-cardiovascular death, was used to determine factors for incident post-stroke MACE.

RESULTS

Among 5,994 patients with a first-ever ischemic stroke (median age 73 years, 45% female), 17% were admitted for MACE within 2 years (129 events per 1,000 person-years). The median time to first post-stroke MACE was 117 days (89 days if aged <65 years vs. 126 days if aged ≥65 years; p = 0.025). Among patients aged 18-64 years, receiving intravenous thrombolysis (sub-distribution hazard ratio [SHR] 0.51 [95% CI, 0.28-0.92]) or being discharged to inpatient rehabilitation (SHR 0.65 [95% CI, 0.46-0.92]) were associated with a reduced incidence of post-stroke MACE. In those aged ≥65 years, being unable to walk on admission (SHR 1.33 [95% CI 1.15-1.54]), and history of smoking (SHR 1.40 [95% CI 1.14-1.71]) or atrial fibrillation (SHR 1.31 [95% CI 1.14-1.51]) were associated with an increased incidence of post-stroke MACE. Acute management in a large hospital (>300 beds) for the initial stroke event was associated with reduced incidence of post-stroke MACE, irrespective of age group.

CONCLUSIONS

MACE is common within 2 years of stroke, with most events occurring within the first year. We have identified important factors to consider when designing interventions to prevent MACE after stroke, particularly among those aged <65 years.

Morbidity and utilisation of healthcare services among people with cardiometabolic disease in three diverse regions of rural India

OBJECTIVES

To assess the prevalence and determinants of cardiometabolic disease (CMD), and the factors associated with healthcare utilisation, among people with CMD.

METHODS

Using a cross-sectional design, 11,657 participants were recruited from randomly selected villages in 3 regions located in Kerala and Andhra Pradesh from 2014 to 2016. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors independently associated with CMD and healthcare utilisation (public or private).

RESULTS

Thirty-four per cent (n = 3629) of participants reported having ≥1 CMD, including hypertension (21.6%), diabetes (11.6%), heart disease (5.0%) or chronic kidney disease (CKD) (1.6%). The prevalence of CMD was progressively greater in regions of greater socio-economic position (SEP), ranging from 19.1% to 40.9%. Among those with CMD 41% had sought any medical advice in the last month, with only 19% utilising public health facilities. Among people with CMD, those with health insurance utilised more healthcare (age-gender adjusted odds ratio (AOR) (95% confidence interval (CI)): 1.31 (1.13, 1.51)) as did those who reported accessing private rather than public health services (1.43 (1.23, 1.66)).

DISCUSSION

The prevalence of CMD is high in these regions of rural India and is positively associated with indices of SEP. The utilisation of outpatient health services, particularly public services, among those with CMD is low.

In Search of a Gold Standard Tool for Assessing Knowledge of Stroke: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Knowledge of stroke is essential to empower people to reduce their risk of these events. However, valid tools are required for accurate and reliable measurement of stroke knowledge. We aimed to systematically review contemporary stroke knowledge assessment tools and appraise their content validity, feasibility, and measurement properties.

METHODS

The protocol was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42023403566). Electronic databases (MEDLINE, PsycInfo, CINAHL, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science) were searched to identify published articles (1 January 2015-1 March 2023), in which stroke knowledge was assessed using a validated tool. Two reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts prior to undertaking full-text review. COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement INstruments (COSMIN) methods guided the appraisal of content validity (relevance, comprehensiveness, comprehensibility), feasibility, and measurement properties.

RESULTS

After removing duplicates, the titles and abstracts of 718 articles were screened; 323 reviewed in full; with 42 included (N = 23 unique stroke knowledge tools). For content validity, all tools were relevant, two were comprehensive, and seven were comprehensible. Validation metrics were reported for internal consistency (n = 20 tools), construct validity (n = 17 tools), cross-cultural validity (n = 15 tools), responsiveness (n = 9 tools), reliability (n = 7 tools), structural validity (n = 3 tools), and measurement error (n = 1 tool). The Stroke Knowledge Test met all content validity criteria, with validation data for six measurement properties (n = 3 rated "Sufficient").

CONCLUSION

Assessment of stroke knowledge is not standardised and many tools lacked validated content or measurement properties. The Stroke Knowledge Test was the most comprehensive but requires updating and further validation for endorsement as a gold standard.

Intraoperative hemodynamics and risk of cardiac surgery-associated acute kidney injury: An observation study and a feasibility clinical trial

Targeting greater pump flow and mean arterial pressure (MAP) during cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) could potentially alleviate renal hypoxia and reduce the risk of postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI). Therefore, in an observational study of 93 patients undergoing on-pump cardiac surgery, we tested whether intraoperative hemodynamic management differed between patients who did and did not develop AKI. Then, in 20 patients, we assessed the feasibility of a larger-scale trial in which patients would be randomized to greater than normal target pump flow and MAP, or usual care, during CPB. In the observational cohort, MAP during hypothermic CPB averaged 68.8 ± 8.0 mmHg (mean ± SD) in the 36 patients who developed AKI and 68.9 ± 6.3 mmHg in the 57 patients who did not (p = 0.98). Pump flow averaged 2.4 ± 0.2 L/min/m2 in both groups. In the feasibility clinical trial, compared with usual care, those randomized to increased target pump flow and MAP had greater mean pump flow (2.70 ± 0.23 vs. 2.42 ± 0.09 L/min/m2 during the period before rewarming) and systemic oxygen delivery (363 ± 60 vs. 281 ± 45 mL/min/m2 ). Target MAP ≥80 mmHg was achieved in 66.6% of patients in the intervention group but in only 27.3% of patients in the usual care group. Nevertheless, MAP during CPB did not differ significantly between the two groups. We conclude that little insight was gained from our observational study regarding the impact of variations in pump flow and MAP on the risk of AKI. However, a clinical trial to assess the effects of greater target pump flow and MAP on the risk of AKI appears feasible.

Global variation in diabetes diagnosis and prevalence based on fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but these measurements can identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening, had elevated FPG, HbA1c or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardized proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed and detected in survey screening ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the age-standardized proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c was more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global shortfall in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance.

Socioeconomic status and health-related quality of life after stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with stroke occurrence and survival following stroke but its association with health-related quality of life (HRQoL) following stroke remains uncertain. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine the association between SES and HRQoL after stroke.

METHODS

PubMed, SCOPUS, EMBASE, and Web of Science were searched to identify relevant cohort and case-control studies between January 2000 and May 2022. Two authors screened titles, abstracts and full text articles. One author extracted data from all included studies. Meta-analyses were performed for studies with comparable measurements of SES and HRQoL. Random effects models were used to estimate pooled summary standardised mean differences in HRQoL by SES.

RESULTS

Out of 1,876 citations, 39 studies incorporated measurement of overall HRQoL following stroke and were included in the systematic review, with 17 studies included in the meta-analyses. Overall, reports including education, income, occupation and work status effects on HRQoL after stroke were inconsistent among all included 39 studies. In the global meta-analysis of 17 studies, HRQoL among survivors of stroke was lower in the low SES group than in the high SES group (standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.36, 95% CI -0.52, -0.20, p < 0.0001). When using education and income indicators separately, summary effects were similar to those of the global analysis (low versus high education SMD -0.38, 95% CI -0.57, -0.18, p < 0.0001; low versus high income SMD -0.39, 95% CI -0.59, -0.19, p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Across all SES indicators, people with stroke who have lower SES have poorer overall HRQoL than those with higher SES. Accessibility and affordability of poststroke support services should be taken into consideration when planning and delivering services to people with low SES.