Consensus methods for medical and health services research

Health providers face the problem of trying to make decisions in situations where there is insufficient information and also where there is an overload of (often contradictory) information. Statistical methods such as meta-analysis have been developed to summarise and to resolve inconsistencies in study findings--where information is available in an appropriate form. Consensus methods provide another means of synthesising information, but are liable to use a wider range of information than is common in statistical methods, and where published information is inadequate or non-existent these methods provide a means of harnessing the insights of appropriate experts to enable decisions to be made. Two consensus methods commonly adopted in medical, nursing, and health services research--the Delphi process and the nominal group technique (also known as the expert panel)--are described, together with the most appropriate situations for using them; an outline of the process involved in undertaking a study using each method is supplemented by illustrations of the authors' work. Key methodological issues in using the methods are discussed, along with the distinct contribution of consensus methods as aids to decision making, both in clinical practice and in health service development.

Functional evaluation of complete sciatic, peroneal, and posterior tibial nerve lesions in the rat

Quantification of peripheral nerve regeneration in animal studies of nerve injury and repair by histologic, morphologic, and electrophysiologic parameters has been controversial because such studies may not necessarily correlate with actual nerve function. This study modifies the previously described sciatic functional index (SFI), tibial functional index (TFI), and peroneal functional index (PFI) based on multiple linear regression analysis of factors derived from measurements of walking tracks in rats with defined nerve injuries. The factors that contributed to these formulas were print-length factor (PLF), toe-spread factor (TSF), and intermediary toe-spread factor (ITF). It was shown that animals with selective nerve injuries gave walking tracks that were consistent, predictable, and based on known neuromuscular deficits. The new formula for sciatic functional index was compared with previously described indices. The sciatic functional index, tibial functional index, and peroneal functional index offer the peripheral nerve investigator a noninvasive quantitative assessment of hindlimb motor function in the rat with selective hindlimb nerve injury.

Fruit and Vegetable Intake and Risk of Major Chronic Disease

BACKGROUND

Studies of fruit and vegetable consumption in relation to overall health are limited. We evaluated the relationship between fruit and vegetable intake and the incidence of cardiovascular disease and cancer and of deaths from other causes in two prospective cohorts.

METHODS

A total of 71 910 female participants in the Nurses' Health study and 37,725 male participants in the Health Professionals' Follow-up Study who were free of major chronic disease completed baseline semiquantitative food-frequency questionnaires in 1984 and 1986, respectively. Dietary information was updated in 1986, 1990, and 1994 for women and in 1990 and 1994 for men. Participants were followed up for incidence of cardiovascular disease, cancer, or death through May 1998 (women) and January 1998 (men). Multivariable-adjusted relative risks were calculated with Cox proportional hazards analysis.

RESULTS

We ascertained 9329 events (1964 cardiovascular, 6584 cancer, and 781 other deaths) in women and 4957 events (1670 cardiovascular diseases, 2500 cancers, and 787 other deaths) in men during follow-up. For men and women combined, participants in the highest quintile of total fruit and vegetable intake had a relative risk for major chronic disease of 0.95 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.89 to 1.01) times that of those in the lowest. Total fruit and vegetable intake was inversely associated with risk of cardiovascular disease but not with overall cancer incidence, with relative risk for an increment of five servings daily of 0.88 (95% CI = 0.81 to 0.95) for cardiovascular disease and 1.00 (95% CI = 0.95 to 1.05) for cancer. Of the food groups analyzed, green leafy vegetable intake showed the strongest inverse association with major chronic disease and cardiovascular disease. For an increment of one serving per day of green leafy vegetables, relative risks were 0.95 (95% CI = 0.92 to 0.99) for major chronic disease and 0.89 (95% CI = 0.83 to 0.96) for cardiovascular disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased fruit and vegetable consumption was associated with a modest although not statistically significant reduction in the development of major chronic disease. The benefits appeared to be primarily for cardiovascular disease and not for cancer.

Fish and omega-3 fatty acid intake and risk of coronary heart disease in women

CONTEXT

Higher consumption of fish and omega-3 fatty acids has been associated with a lower risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in men, but limited data are available regarding women.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between fish and long-chain omega-3 fatty acid consumption and risk of CHD in women.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Dietary consumption and follow-up data from 84 688 female nurses enrolled in the Nurses' Health Study, aged 34 to 59 years and free from cardiovascular disease and cancer at baseline in 1980, were compared from validated questionnaires completed in 1980, 1984, 1986, 1990, and 1994.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incident nonfatal myocardial infarction and CHD deaths.

RESULTS

During 16 years of follow-up, there were 1513 incident cases of CHD (484 CHD deaths and 1029 nonfatal myocardial infarctions). Compared with women who rarely ate fish (<1 per month), those with a higher intake of fish had a lower risk of CHD. After adjustment for age, smoking, and other cardiovascular risk factors, the multivariable relative risks (RRs) of CHD were 0.79 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64-0.97) for fish consumption 1 to 3 times per month, 0.71 (95% CI, 0.58-0.87) for once per week, 0.69 (95% CI, 0.55-0.88) for 2 to 4 times per week, and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.50-0.89) for 5 or more times per week (P for trend =.001). Similarly, women with a higher intake of omega-3 fatty acids had a lower risk of CHD, with multivariable RRs of 1.0, 0.93, 0.78, 0.68, and 0.67 (P<.001 for trend) across quintiles of intake. For fish intake and omega-3 fatty acids, the inverse association appeared to be stronger for CHD deaths (multivariate RR for fish consumption 5 times per week, 0.55 [95% CI, 0.33-0.90] for CHD deaths vs 0.73 [0.51-1.04]) than for nonfatal myocardial infarction.

CONCLUSION

Among women, higher consumption of fish and omega-3 fatty acids is associated with a lower risk of CHD, particularly CHD deaths.

A common genetic variant is associated with adult and childhood obesity

Obesity is a heritable trait and a risk factor for many common diseases such as type 2 diabetes, heart disease, and hypertension. We used a dense whole-genome scan of DNA samples from the Framingham Heart Study participants to identify a common genetic variant near the INSIG2 gene associated with obesity. We have replicated the finding in four separate samples composed of individuals of Western European ancestry, African Americans, and children. The obesity-predisposing genotype is present in 10% of individuals. Our study suggests that common genetic polymorphisms are important determinants of obesity.

Pollution and health: a progress update

The Lancet Commission on pollution and health reported that pollution was responsible for 9 million premature deaths in 2015, making it the world's largest environmental risk factor for disease and premature death. We have now updated this estimate using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuriaes, and Risk Factors Study 2019. We find that pollution remains responsible for approximately 9 million deaths per year, corresponding to one in six deaths worldwide. Reductions have occurred in the number of deaths attributable to the types of pollution associated with extreme poverty. However, these reductions in deaths from household air pollution and water pollution are offset by increased deaths attributable to ambient air pollution and toxic chemical pollution (ie, lead). Deaths from these modern pollution risk factors, which are the unintended consequence of industrialisation and urbanisation, have risen by 7% since 2015 and by over 66% since 2000. Despite ongoing efforts by UN agencies, committed groups, committed individuals, and some national governments (mostly in high-income countries), little real progress against pollution can be identified overall, particularly in the low-income and middle-income countries, where pollution is most severe. Urgent attention is needed to control pollution and prevent pollution-related disease, with an emphasis on air pollution and lead poisoning, and a stronger focus on hazardous chemical pollution. Pollution, climate change, and biodiversity loss are closely linked. Successful control of these conjoined threats requires a globally supported, formal science-policy interface to inform intervention, influence research, and guide funding. Pollution has typically been viewed as a local issue to be addressed through subnational and national regulation or, occasionally, using regional policy in higher-income countries. Now, however, it is increasingly clear that pollution is a planetary threat, and that its drivers, its dispersion, and its effects on health transcend local boundaries and demand a global response. Global action on all major modern pollutants is needed. Global efforts can synergise with other global environmental policy programmes, especially as a large-scale, rapid transition away from all fossil fuels to clean, renewable energy is an effective strategy for preventing pollution while also slowing down climate change, and thus achieves a double benefit for planetary health.

Genome-wide meta-analysis identifies 11 new loci for anthropometric traits and provides insights into genetic architecture

Approaches exploiting trait distribution extremes may be used to identify loci associated with common traits, but it is unknown whether these loci are generalizable to the broader population. In a genome-wide search for loci associated with the upper versus the lower 5th percentiles of body mass index, height and waist-to-hip ratio, as well as clinical classes of obesity, including up to 263,407 individuals of European ancestry, we identified 4 new loci (IGFBP4, H6PD, RSRC1 and PPP2R2A) influencing height detected in the distribution tails and 7 new loci (HNF4G, RPTOR, GNAT2, MRPS33P4, ADCY9, HS6ST3 and ZZZ3) for clinical classes of obesity. Further, we find a large overlap in genetic structure and the distribution of variants between traits based on extremes and the general population and little etiological heterogeneity between obesity subgroups.

The expanding role of primary care in cancer control

The nature of cancer control is changing, with an increasing emphasis, fuelled by public and political demand, on prevention, early diagnosis, and patient experience during and after treatment. At the same time, primary care is increasingly promoted, by governments and health funders worldwide, as the preferred setting for most health care for reasons of increasing need, to stabilise health-care costs, and to accommodate patient preference for care close to home. It is timely, then, to consider how this expanding role for primary care can work for cancer control, which has long been dominated by highly technical interventions centred on treatment, and in which the contribution of primary care has been largely perceived as marginal. In this Commission, expert opinion from primary care and public health professionals with academic and clinical cancer expertise—from epidemiologists, psychologists, policy makers, and cancer specialists—has contributed to a detailed consideration of the evidence for cancer control provided in primary care and community care settings. Ranging from primary prevention to end-of-life care, the scope for new models of care is explored, and the actions needed to effect change are outlined. The strengths of primary care—its continuous, coordinated, and comprehensive care for individuals and families—are particularly evident in prevention and diagnosis, in shared follow-up and survivorship care, and in end-of-life care. A strong theme of integration of care runs throughout, and its elements (clinical, vertical, and functional) and the tools needed for integrated working are described in detail. All of this change, as it evolves, will need to be underpinned by new research and by continuing and shared multiprofessional development.

A multi-stage genome-wide association study of bladder cancer identifies multiple susceptibility loci

We conducted a multi-stage, genome-wide association study of bladder cancer with a primary scan of 591,637 SNPs in 3,532 affected individuals (cases) and 5,120 controls of European descent from five studies followed by a replication strategy, which included 8,382 cases and 48,275 controls from 16 studies. In a combined analysis, we identified three new regions associated with bladder cancer on chromosomes 22q13.1, 19q12 and 2q37.1: rs1014971, (P = 8 × 10⁻¹²) maps to a non-genic region of chromosome 22q13.1, rs8102137 (P = 2 × 10⁻¹¹) on 19q12 maps to CCNE1 and rs11892031 (P = 1 × 10⁻⁷) maps to the UGT1A cluster on 2q37.1. We confirmed four previously identified genome-wide associations on chromosomes 3q28, 4p16.3, 8q24.21 and 8q24.3, validated previous candidate associations for the GSTM1 deletion (P = 4 × 10⁻¹¹) and a tag SNP for NAT2 acetylation status (P = 4 × 10⁻¹¹), and found interactions with smoking in both regions. Our findings on common variants associated with bladder cancer risk should provide new insights into the mechanisms of carcinogenesis.

Laparoscopic excision of endometriosis: a randomized, placebo-controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To examine the effect on pain and quality of life for women with all stages of endometriosis undergoing laparoscopic surgery compared with placebo surgery.

DESIGN

A randomized, blinded, crossover study.

SETTING

A tertiary referral unit in a district general hospital.

PATIENT(S)

Thirty-nine women with histologically proven endometriosis completed the 12-month study.

INTERVENTION(S)

Women were randomized to receive initially either a diagnostic procedure (the delayed surgical group) or full excisional surgery (the immediate surgery group). After 6 months, repeat laparoscopy was performed, with removal of any pathology present.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

The end points were changes from baseline values of visual analogue pain scores, validated quality-of-life instruments (EQ-5D and SF-12), and sexual activity questionnaire scores. Patients and assessors of outcomes were blinded to the treatment-group assignment.

RESULT(S)

Significantly more of the 39 women operated on according to protocol reported symptomatic improvement after excisional surgery than after placebo: 16 of 20 (80%) vs. 6 of 19 (32%); chi(2)(1) = 9.3. Other aspects of quality of life were also significantly improved 6 months after excisional surgery but not after placebo. Progression of disease at second surgery was demonstrated for women having only an initial diagnostic procedure in 45% of cases, with disease remaining static in 33% and improving in 22% of cases. Nonresponsiveness to surgery was reported in 20% of cases.

CONCLUSION(S)

Laparoscopic excision of endometriosis is more effective than placebo at reducing pain and improving quality of life. Surgery is associated with a 30% placebo response rate that is not dependent on severity of disease. Approximately 20% of women do not report an improvement after surgery for endometriosis.

Sex-stratified genome-wide association studies including 270,000 individuals show sexual dimorphism in genetic loci for anthropometric traits

Given the anthropometric differences between men and women and previous evidence of sex-difference in genetic effects, we conducted a genome-wide search for sexually dimorphic associations with height, weight, body mass index, waist circumference, hip circumference, and waist-to-hip-ratio (133,723 individuals) and took forward 348 SNPs into follow-up (additional 137,052 individuals) in a total of 94 studies. Seven loci displayed significant sex-difference (FDR<5%), including four previously established (near GRB14/COBLL1, LYPLAL1/SLC30A10, VEGFA, ADAMTS9) and three novel anthropometric trait loci (near MAP3K1, HSD17B4, PPARG), all of which were genome-wide significant in women (P<5×10(-8)), but not in men. Sex-differences were apparent only for waist phenotypes, not for height, weight, BMI, or hip circumference. Moreover, we found no evidence for genetic effects with opposite directions in men versus women. The PPARG locus is of specific interest due to its role in diabetes genetics and therapy. Our results demonstrate the value of sex-specific GWAS to unravel the sexually dimorphic genetic underpinning of complex traits.

Prospective study of adult onset diabetes mellitus (type 2) and risk of colorectal cancer in women

BACKGROUND

The remarkable similarity of lifestyle and environmental risk factors for type 2 (non-insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus and colon cancer has led to the hypothesis that diabetes may increase the risk of this cancer. We prospectively examined the relationship between diabetes and risk of colorectal cancer in a cohort of 118403 women aged 30 through 55 years who were without previously diagnosed cancer at baseline in 1976.

METHODS

The women, who were enrolled in the Nurses' Health Study, were assessed for history of diabetes at baseline and during follow-up by use of biennial questionnaires. Self-reported diabetes was validated by information obtained from a supplemental questionnaire on symptoms and treatment and was confirmed by medical record review in a sample of the participants. Incident cases of colorectal cancer were ascertained through medical record review. All reported P values are two-sided.

RESULTS

During 18 years of follow-up (201061 person-years), we documented 892 new cases of colorectal cancer. After adjustment for age, body mass index (weight in kg/height in m2), physical activity, and other covariates, relative risks (RRs) were 1.43 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.10-1.87; P = .009) for colorectal cancer, 1.49 (95% CI = 1.09-2.06; P = .01) for colon cancer, 1.11 (95% CI = 0.56-2.21; P = .76) for rectal cancer, 1.56 (95% CI = 1.07-2.28; P = .02) for advanced colorectal cancer, and 2.39 (95% CI = 1.46-3.92; P = .0005) for fatal colorectal cancer.

CONCLUSION

Our data provide support for the hypothesis that diabetes is associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer in women.

A polymer foam conduit seeded with Schwann cells promotes guided peripheral nerve regeneration

Alternatives to autografts have long been sought for use in bridging neural gaps. Many entubulation materials have been studied, although with generally disappointing results in comparison with autografts. The purpose of this study was to design a more effective neural guidance conduit, to introduce Schwann cells into the conduit, and to determine regenerative capability through it in an in vivo model. A novel, fully biodegradable polymer conduit was designed and fabricated for use in peripheral nerve repair, which approximates the macro- and microarchitecture of native peripheral nerves. It comprised a series of longitudinally aligned channels, with diameters ranging from 60 to 550 microns. The lumenal surfaces promoted the adherence of Schwann cells, whose presence is known to play a key role in nerve regeneration. This unique channel architecture increased the surface area available for Schwann cell adherence up to five-fold over that available through a simple hollow conduit. The conduit was composed of a high-molecular-weight copolymer of lactic and glycolic acids (PLGA) (MW 130,000) in an 85:15 monomer ratio. A novel foam-processing technique, employing low-pressure injection molding, was used to create highly porous conduits (approximately 90% pore volume) with continuous longitudinal channels. Using this technique, conduits were constructed containing 1, 5, 16, 45, or more longitudinally aligned channels. Prior to cellular seeding of these conduits, the foams were prewet with 50% ethanol, flushed with physiologic saline, and coated with laminin solution (10 microg/mL). A Schwann cell suspension was dynamically introduced into these processed foams at a concentration of 5 X 10(5) cells/mL, using a simple bioreactor flow loop. In vivo regeneration studies were carried out in which cell-laden five-channel polymer conduits (individual channel ID 500 microm, total conduit OD 2.3 mm) were implanted across a 7-mm gap in the rat sciatic nerve (n = 4), and midgraft axonal regeneration compared with autografts (n = 6). At 6 weeks, axonal regeneration was observed in the midconduit region of all five channels in each experimental animal. The cross-sectional area comprising axons relative to the open conduit cross sectional area (mean 26.3%, SD 10. 1%) compared favorably with autografts (mean 23.8%, SD 3.6%). Our methodology can be used to create polymer foam conduits containing longitudinally aligned channels, to introduce Schwann cells into them, and to implant them into surgically created neural defects. These conduits provide an environment permissive to axonal regeneration. Furthermore, this polymer foam-processing method and unique channeled architecture allows the introduction of neurotrophic factors into the conduit in a controlled fashion. Deposition of different factors into distinct regions within the conduit may be possible to promote more precisely guided neural regeneration.

Selective expression and functions of interleukin 18 receptor on T helper (Th) type 1 but not Th2 cells

Interleukin (IL)-18 induces interferon (IFN)-gamma synthesis and synergizes with IL-12 in T helper type 1 (Th1) but not Th2 cell development. We report here that IL-18 receptor (IL-18R) is selectively expressed on murine Th1 but not Th2 cells. IL-18R mRNA was expressed constitutively and consistently in long-term cultured clones, as well as on newly polarized Th1 but not Th2 cells. IL-18 sustained the expression of IL-12Rbeta2 mRNA, indicating that IL-18R transmits signals that maintain Th1 development through the IL-12R complex. In turn, IL-12 upregulated IL-18R mRNA. Antibody against an IL-18R-derived peptide bound Th1 but not Th2 clones. It also labeled polarized Th1 but not Th2 cells derived from naive ovalbumin-T cell antigen receptor-alphabeta transgenic mice (D011.10). Anti-IL-18R antibody inhibited IL-18- induced IFN-gamma production by Th1 clones in vitro. In vivo, anti-IL-18R antibody reduced local inflammation and lipopolysaccharide-induced mortality in mice. This was accompanied by shifting the balance from Th1 to Th2 responses, manifest as decreased IFN-gamma and proinflammatory cytokine production and increased IL-4 and IL-5 synthesis. Therefore, these data provide a direct mechanism for the selective effect of IL-18 on Th1 but not Th2 cells. They also show that the synergistic effect of IL-12 and IL-18 on Th1 development may be due to the reciprocal upregulation of their receptors. Furthermore, IL-18R is a cell surface marker distinguishing Th1 from Th2 cells and may be a therapeutic target.

Chronic nerve compression--an experimental model in the rat

This study reports a rat model of chronic nerve compression. The sciatic nerves of adult male Sprague Dawley rats were bonded with 1-cm lengths of tubing with varying internal diameters. Histological and electrical studies as well as studies to assess the blood-nerve barrier function were carried out at one through six months. With marked compression of the sciatic nerve, profound electrical changes were noted as early as one month, and histological findings were those of degeneration and regeneration. In the rats with minimal compression, nerve conduction studies remained normal. The earliest findings were alterations in the blood-nerve barrier, followed by histological changes in the large myelinated fibers at the periphery of the fascicles and changes about the nodes of Ranvier. This model appears to be a valid one with which to study other aspects of both the pathophysiology and treatment of chronic nerve compression.

A role for IL-18 in neutrophil activation

IL-18 expression and functional activity has been identified in several autoimmune and infectious diseases. To clarify the potential role of IL-18 during early innate immune responses, we have explored the capacity of IL-18 to activate neutrophils. Human peripheral blood-derived neutrophils constitutively expressed IL-18R (alpha and beta) commensurate with the capacity to rapidly respond to IL-18. IL-18 induced cytokine and chemokine release from neutrophils that was protein synthesis dependent, up-regulated CD11b expression, induced granule release, and enhanced the respiratory burst following exposure to fMLP, but had no effect upon the rate of neutrophil apoptosis. The capacity to release cytokine and chemokine was significantly enhanced in neutrophils derived from rheumatoid arthritis synovial fluid, indicating differential responsiveness to IL-18 dependent upon prior neutrophil activation in vivo. Finally, IL-18 administration promoted neutrophil accumulation in vivo, whereas IL-18 neutralization suppressed the severity of footpad inflammation following carrageenan injection. The latter was accompanied by reduction in tissue myeloperoxidase expression and suppressed local TNF-alpha production. Together, these data define a novel role for IL-18 in activating neutrophils and thereby promoting early innate immune responses.

Activation of a novel calcium-dependent protein-tyrosine kinase. Correlation with c-Jun N-terminal kinase but not mitogen-activated protein kinase activation

Many G protein-coupled receptors (e.g. that of angiotensin II) activate phospholipase Cbeta, initially increasing intracellular calcium and activating protein kinase C. In the WB and GN4 rat liver epithelial cell lines, agonist-induced calcium signals also stimulate tyrosine phosphorylation and subsequently increase the activity of c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK). We have now purified the major calcium-dependent tyrosine kinase (CADTK), and by peptide and nucleic acid sequencing identified it as a rat homologue of human PYK2. CADTK/PYK2 is most closely related to p125(FAK) and both enzymes are expressed in WB and GN4 cells. Angiotensin II, which only slightly increases p125(FAK) tyrosine phosphorylation in GN4 cells, substantially increased CADTK tyrosine autophosphorylation and kinase activity. Agonists for other G protein-coupled receptors (e.g. LPA), or those increasing intracellular calcium (thapsigargin), also stimulated CADTK. In comparing the two rat liver cell lines, GN4 cells exhibited approximately 5-fold greater angiotensin II- and thapsigargin-dependent CADTK activation than WB cells. Although maximal JNK activation by stress-dependent pathways (e.g. UV and anisomycin) was equivalent in the two cell lines, calcium-dependent JNK activation was 5-fold greater in GN4, correlating with CADTK activation. In contrast to JNK, the thapsigargin-dependent calcium signal did not activate mitogen-activated protein kinase and Ang II-dependent mitogen-activated protein kinase activation was not correlated with CADTK activation. Finally, while some stress-dependent activators of the JNK pathway (NaCl and sorbitol) stimulated CADTK, others (anisomycin, UV, and TNFalpha) did not. In summary, cells expressing CADTK/PYK2 appear to have two alternative JNK activation pathways: one stress-activated and the other calcium-dependent.

Genetic insights into biological mechanisms governing human ovarian ageing

Reproductive longevity is essential for fertility and influences healthy ageing in women1,2, but insights into its underlying biological mechanisms and treatments to preserve it are limited. Here we identify 290 genetic determinants of ovarian ageing, assessed using normal variation in age at natural menopause (ANM) in about 200,000 women of European ancestry. These common alleles were associated with clinical extremes of ANM; women in the top 1% of genetic susceptibility have an equivalent risk of premature ovarian insufficiency to those carrying monogenic FMR1 premutations3. The identified loci implicate a broad range of DNA damage response (DDR) processes and include loss-of-function variants in key DDR-associated genes. Integration with experimental models demonstrates that these DDR processes act across the life-course to shape the ovarian reserve and its rate of depletion. Furthermore, we demonstrate that experimental manipulation of DDR pathways highlighted by human genetics increases fertility and extends reproductive life in mice. Causal inference analyses using the identified genetic variants indicate that extending reproductive life in women improves bone health and reduces risk of type 2 diabetes, but increases the risk of hormone-sensitive cancers. These findings provide insight into the mechanisms that govern ovarian ageing, when they act, and how they might be targeted by therapeutic approaches to extend fertility and prevent disease.

An upper bound for the probability of a union

The problem of bounding P(∪ Ai) given P(Ai) and P(AiAj) for i ≠ j = 1, …, k goes back to Boole (1854) and Bonferroni (1936). In this paper a new family of upper bounds is derived using results in graph theory. This family contains the bound of Kounias (1968), and the smallest upper bound in the family for a given application is easily derivable via the minimal spanning tree algorithm of Kruskal (1956). The properties of the algorithm and of the multivariate normal and t distributions are shown to provide considerable simplifications when approximating tail probabilities of maxima from these distributions.

A prospective study of cigarette smoking and risk of colorectal adenoma and colorectal cancer in U.S. women

BACKGROUND

A positive correlation between smoking and colorectal cancer has been reported for men, but not for women, who began smoking in substantial numbers in the late 1940s and early 1950s. We hypothesized that smoking acts as an initiator of colorectal neoplasia and that an association with cancer in women has been missed because of the long period between initiation and diagnosis of cancer.

PURPOSE

Our purpose was to assess the association between smoking and risk of colorectal adenoma and colorectal cancer in women and to estimate the minimum induction period between the onset of smoking and cancer diagnosis.

METHODS

Our data came from the ongoing Nurses' Health Study, in which current and lifetime smoking histories and other potential confounding factors were assessed by questionnaire at baseline and at 2-year intervals. We documented 586 new cases of colorectal cancer from 1976 to 1990 from a group of 118,334 women and 564 new cases of adenoma among 12,143 women who had a first colonoscopy or sigmoidoscopy between 1980 and 1990. We then assessed the relative risk (RR) of small adenoma, large adenoma (> or = 1 cm), and colorectal cancer in terms of pack-years of smoking.

RESULTS

The amount smoked in the prior 20 years was related to the prevalence of small adenomas (multivariate RR = 1.45; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.25-1.68; P < .0001) and less strongly with large adenomas (RR = 1.31; 95% CI = 1.17-1.47; P < .0001), adjusting for age, intake of saturated fat, dietary fiber, folate, and alcohol, body mass, family history of colorectal cancer, and pack-years of cigarettes smoked within the prior 20 years. Pack-years of cigarettes smoked more than 20 years in the past was associated with risk of large adenoma (multivariate RR for a 20 pack-year increment = 1.29; 95% CI = 1.01-1.64; P trend = .04), but not of small adenoma (RR = 1.11; 95% CI = 0.93-1.34). Cigarette smoking was unrelated to colorectal cancer until 35 years after smoking began, but then became progressively more strongly related with time. Among women who had started smoking more than 10 cigarettes per day 35-39 years in the past, the RR for cancer was 1.47 (95% CI = 1.07-2.01), progressing to 1.63 (95% CI = 1.14-2.33) after 40-44 years and 2.00 (95% CI = 1.14-3.49) after 45 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Because the minimum induction period for colorectal cancer appears to be at least 35 years, an association between smoking and colorectal cancer in women may just now be showing up.

IMPLICATIONS

Our findings suggest that cigarette smoking may be a previously unrecognized, preventable cause of colorectal cancer among women.

Nerve crush injuries--a model for axonotmesis

Nerve crush is a commonly used experimental model in the rat; however, a standard method of inducing this injury has not been defined. This study examined six crush techniques that are frequently used and characterized the subsequent nerve injury. Five types of nerve crush using a No. 5 jeweler's forceps and a sixth using a 30-s single crush with a serrated hemostat were studied in the posterior tibial nerve of the Lewis rat. Regeneration was evaluated using serial walking track assessments at 1, 2, 4, 6, and 8 weeks postoperatively. Nerve conduction studies and histological examination were performed at 2 days, 2 weeks, and 8 weeks. Blood-nerve barrier breakdown was observed at 2 days and recovered by 2 weeks. By 4 weeks normal walking track patterns were obtained in all groups. A pattern of Wallerian degeneration and axonal regeneration was noted at 2 weeks, with histological recovery in all groups by 8 weeks. Nerve crush, induced by any of the six methods tested, was similar and provides a reliable model of axonotmesis.

A prospective study of plasma vitamin D metabolites, vitamin D receptor polymorphisms, and prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

Vitamin D insufficiency is a common public health problem nationwide. Circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (25[OH]D), the most commonly used index of vitamin D status, is converted to the active hormone 1,25 dihydroxyvitamin D3 (1,25[OH]2D), which, operating through the vitamin D receptor (VDR), inhibits in vitro cell proliferation, induces differentiation and apoptosis, and may protect against prostate cancer. Despite intriguing results from laboratory studies, previous epidemiological studies showed inconsistent associations of circulating levels of 25(OH)D, 1,25(OH)2D, and several VDR polymorphisms with prostate cancer risk. Few studies have explored the joint association of circulating vitamin D levels with VDR polymorphisms.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

During 18 y of follow-up of 14,916 men initially free of diagnosed cancer, we identified 1,066 men with incident prostate cancer (including 496 with aggressive disease, defined as stage C or D, Gleason 7-10, metastatic, and fatal prostate cancer) and 1,618 cancer-free, age- and smoking-matched control participants in the Physicians' Health Study. We examined the associations of prediagnostic plasma levels of 25(OH)D and 1,25(OH)2D, individually and jointly, with total and aggressive disease, and explored whether relations between vitamin D metabolites and prostate cancer were modified by the functional VDR FokI polymorphism, using conditional logistic regression. Among these US physicians, the median plasma 25(OH)D levels were 25 ng/ml in the blood samples collected during the winter or spring and 32 ng/ml in samples collected during the summer or fall. Nearly 13% (summer/fall) to 36% (winter/spring) of the control participants were deficient in 25(OH)D (<20 ng/ml) and 51% (summer/fall) and 77% (winter/spring) had insufficient plasma 25(OH)D levels (<32 ng/ml). Plasma levels of 1,25(OH)2D did not vary by season. Men whose levels for both 25(OH)D and 1,25(OH)2D were below (versus above) the median had a significantly increased risk of aggressive prostate cancer (odds ratio [OR] = 2.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2-3.4), although the interaction between the two vitamin D metabolites was not statistically significant (pinteraction = 0.23). We observed a significant interaction between circulating 25(OH)D levels and the VDR FokI genotype (pinteraction < 0.05). Compared with those with plasma 25(OH)D levels above the median and with the FokI FF or Ff genotype, men who had low 25(OH)D levels and the less functional FokI ff genotype had increased risks of total (OR = 1.9, 95% CI 1.1-3.3) and aggressive prostate cancer (OR = 2.5, 95% CI 1.1-5.8). Among men with plasma 25(OH)D levels above the median, the ff genotype was no longer associated with risk. Conversely, among men with the ff genotype, high plasma 25(OH)D level (above versus below the median) was related to significant 60% approximately 70% lower risks of total and aggressive prostate cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest that a large proportion of the US men had suboptimal vitamin D status (especially during the winter/spring season), and both 25(OH)D and 1,25(OH)2D may play an important role in preventing prostate cancer progression. Moreover, vitamin D status, measured by 25(OH)D in plasma, interacts with the VDR FokI polymorphism and modifies prostate cancer risk. Men with the less functional FokI ff genotype (14% in the European-descent population of this cohort) are more susceptible to this cancer in the presence of low 25(OH)D status.

The effect of duration of muscle denervation on functional recovery in the rat model

The effect of long-term denervation on neuromuscular recovery was studied in a rat hind limb model. The posterior tibial nerve was transected and repaired immediately or after denervation periods of 2 weeks, or 1, 3, 6, 9, or 12 months. Six months following reconstruction excellent axonal regeneration was seen across all nerve repairs irrespective of periods of denervation. However, there was a precipitous and profound decrease in the recovery of both muscle mass and integrated motor function if the reconstruction was delayed for longer than 1 month. Rather than a progressive change proportional to the length of the denervation period, significant, more discrete changes occurred sometime after 1 month of denervation that precluded a full recovery of muscle mass. Integrated motor function quantified using walking track analysis was impaired even after immediate nerve repair.

Metabolic triggered inflammation in osteoarthritis

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a common chronic joint disorder with a multifactorial etiology including genetic and environmental factors. Metabolic triggered inflammation, induced by nutrient overload and metabolic surplus, consists of components such as obesity, pro-inflammatory cytokines and adipokines, abnormal metabolites, acute phase proteins, vitamin D deficiency, and deregulated microRNAs that may play a role in OA pathophysiology. Obesity-related metabolic factors, especially adipokines, contribute to OA development by inducing pro-inflammatory cytokines and degradative enzymes, leading to cartilage matrix impairment and subchondral bone remodeling. Ectopic metabolite deposition and low-grade systemic inflammation can contribute to a toxic internal environment that exacerbates OA. Complement components highly expressed in osteoarthritic joints have also been proposed as causative factors. Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with obesity and is implicated to be associated with cartilage loss in OA. Metabolic microRNAs may explain the inflammatory link between obesity and OA. Therapies targeting metabolic-triggered inflammation and its components are anticipated to have potential for the treatment of OA.