Ilardi A, Chieffi S, Ilardi CR. Predictive Role of
Population Density and Use of Public Transport for Major Outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in the Italian Population: An Ecological Study.
J Res Health Sci 2021;
21:e00518. [PMID:
34465641 PMCID:
PMC8957675 DOI:
10.34172/jrhs.2021.46]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2021] [Revised: 03/08/2021] [Accepted: 03/13/2021] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND
This study aimed at assessing how population density (PD), aging index (AI), use of public transport (URPT), and PM10 concentration (PI) modulated the trajectory of the main COVID-19 pandemic outcomes in Italy, also in the recrudescence phase of the epidemic.
STUDY DESIGN
Ecological study.
METHODS
For each region, we recovered data about cases, deaths, and case fatality rate (CFR) recorded since both the beginning of the epidemic and September 1, 2020. Data about total hospitalizations were included as well.
RESULTS
PD correlated with, and was the best predictor of, total and partial cases, total and partial deaths, and total hospitalizations. Moreover, URPT correlated with, and was the best predictor of, total CFR. Besides, PI correlated significantly with total and partial cases, total and partial deaths, and total hospitalizations.
CONCLUSION
PD explains COVID-19 morbidity, mortality, and severity while URPT is the best predictor of disease lethality. These findings should be interpreted with caution due to the ecological fallacy.
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