Partnering With Technology: Advancing Laparoscopy With Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have emerged as transformative technologies in optimizing laparoscopic surgery, offering innovative solutions to enhance surgical precision, efficiency, and safety. This editorial explores the potential role of AI/ML across the surgical continuum, including preoperative optimization, intraoperative assistance, and postoperative care. It outlines the benefits of laparoscopic surgery compared to traditional open procedures and identifies current challenges such as technical difficulty and human error. The editorial discusses how AI and ML technologies can address these challenges, including patient selection and risk stratification, surgical planning and simulation, and personalized medicine approaches. Moreover, it examines the role of AI/ML in intraoperative assistance, such as instrument tracking and guidance, real-time tissue analysis, and the detection of potential complications. Postoperative care and follow-up are also explored, highlighting the potential of AI/ML in monitoring patient recovery, predicting and preventing complications, and tailoring rehabilitation plans. Ethical concerns surrounding data privacy and security, the lack of transparency in decision-making, potential job displacement, and regulatory frameworks are discussed as challenges to the widespread adoption of AI/ML in laparoscopic surgery. Finally, potential areas for further research and exploration are outlined, emphasizing interdisciplinary collaboration and the need for transparent and accountable AI systems. Overall, this editorial provides insights into the challenges and opportunities in harnessing AI/ML technologies to optimize laparoscopic surgery and improve patient outcomes.

A component-based analysis of metabolic syndrome's impact on 30-day outcomes after hip fracture: reduced mortality in obese patients

Introduction

Hip fractures are a common injury associated with significant morbidity and mortality. In the United States, there has been a rapid increase in the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS), a condition comprised several common comorbidities, including obesity, diabetes mellitus, and hypertension, that may worsen perioperative outcomes. This article assesses the impact of MetS and its components on outcomes after hip fracture surgery.

Methods

Patients who underwent nonelective operative treatment for traumatic hip fractures were identified in the 2015-2020 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database. Baseline characteristics between groups were compared, and significant differences were included as covariates. Multivariate regression was performed to assess the impact of characteristics of interest on postoperative outcomes. Patients with MetS, or a single one of its constitutive components-hypertension, diabetes, and obesity-were compared with metabolically healthy cohorts.

Results

In total 95,338 patients were included. Patients with MetS had increased complications (OR 1.509; P < 0.001), but reduced mortality (OR 0.71; P < 0.001). Obesity alone was also associated with increased complications (OR 1.14; P < 0.001) and reduced mortality (OR 0.736; P < 0.001). Both hypertension and diabetes alone increased complications (P < 0.001) but had no impact on mortality. Patients with MetS did, however, have greater odds of adverse discharge (OR 1.516; P < 0.001), extended hospital stays (OR 1.18; P < 0.001), and reoperation (OR 1.297; P = 0.003), but no significant difference in readmission rate.

Conclusion

Patients with MetS had increased complications but decreased mortality. Our component-based analysis showed had obesity had a similar effect: increased complications but lower mortality. These results may help surgeons preoperatively counsel patients with hip fracture about their postoperative risks.

Whole-tumor apparent diffusion coefficient histogram analysis for preoperative risk stratification in endometrial endometrioid adenocarcinoma

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the application of whole-tumor apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) histogram metrics for preoperative risk stratification in endometrial endometrioid adenocarcinoma (EEA).

METHODS

Preoperative MRI of 502 EEA patients were retrospectively analyzed. Whole tumor ADC histogram analysis was performed with regions of interest drawn on all tumor slices of diffusion-weighted imaging scans. Risk stratification was based on ESMO-ESTRO-ESP guidelines: low-, intermediate-, high-intermediate-, and high-risk. Univariable analysis was used to compare ADC histogram metrics (tumor volume, minADC, maxADC, and meanADC; 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of ADC [recorded as P10, P25, P50, P75, and P90 ADC, respectively]; skewness; and kurtosis) between different risk EEAs, and multivariable logistic regression analysis to determine the optimal metric or combined model for risk stratifications. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis with the area under the curve (AUC) was used for diagnostic performance evaluation.

RESULTS

A decreasing tendency in multiple ADC values was observed from the low- to high-intermediate-risk EEAs. The (low + intermediate)-risk EEAs and low-risk EEAs had significantly smaller tumor volumes and higher minADCs, meanADCs, P10, P25, P50, P75, and P90 ADCs than the (high-intermediate + high)-risk EEAs and non-low-risk EEAs (all P < 0.05), respectively. The combined models of the (meanADC + volume) and the (P75 ADC + volume) yielded the largest AUCs of 0.775 and 0.780 in identifying the (low + intermediate)- and the low-risk EEAs from the other EEAs, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Whole-tumor ADC histogram metrics might be helpful for preoperatively identifying low- and (low + intermediate)-risk EEAs, facilitating personalized therapeutic planning.

Evaluating Suicide Risk Stratification in Outpatient Settings: A Vignette-Based Approach

Suicide risk assessment and stratification are a key suicide prevention strategy in mental health care systems that treat military service members and veterans. The aim of the current mixed-method project was to address a gap in our knowledge as to how therapists make these important clinical decisions. This manuscript reports the results of a project during which six vignettes were developed reflecting varying levels of risk according to the Rocky Mountain MIRECC Risk Stratification Table. Mental health therapists were asked to evaluate the risk level of each vignette, determine a treatment disposition, and provide justification for their ratings. The results of the study indicate that therapists can reliably evaluate risk, but that treatment planning tended to be based more on vignette-specific factors than essential features of the risk model. The qualitative findings revealed variations in the definition and perception of foundational concepts, suggesting a need for further research and training in these domains. Overall, the results support the use of vignettes as a method to assess clinical decision-making and provide several areas for further training and research.

Distal Pancreatectomy: Extent of Resection Determines Surgical Risk Categories

BACKGROUND

Recently, subclassification of pancreatoduodenectomy in 4 differing types has been reported, because additional major vascular and multivisceral resections have been shown to be associated with an increased risk of postoperative morbidity and mortality.

OBJECTIVE

To classify distal pancreatectomy (DP) based on the extent of resection and technical difficulty and to evaluate postoperative outcomes with regards to this classification system.

METHODS

All consecutive patients who had undergone DP between 2001 and 2020 in a high-volume pancreatic surgery center were included in this study. DPs were subclassified into 4 distinct categories reflecting the extent of resection and technical difficulty, including standard DP (type 1), DP with venous (type 2), multivisceral (type 3), or arterial resection (type 4). Patient characteristics, perioperative data, and postoperative outcomes were analyzed and compared among the 4 groups.

RESULTS

A total of 2135 patients underwent DP. Standard DP was the most frequently performed procedure (64.8%). The overall 90-day mortality rate was 1.6%. Morbidity rates were higher in patients with additional vascular or multivisceral resections, and 90-day mortality gradually increased with the extent of resection from standard DP to DP with arterial resection (type 1: 0.7%; type 2: 1.3%; type 3: 3%; type 4: 8.7%; P <0.0001). Multivariable analysis confirmed the type of DP as an independent risk factor for 90-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Postoperative outcomes after DP depend on the extent of resection and correlate with the type of DP. The implementation of the 4-type classification system allows standardized reporting of surgical outcomes after DP improving comparability of future studies.

Prognostic impact of lymph node involvement and loss of heterozygosity of 1p or 16q in stage III favorable histology Wilms tumor: A report from Children's Oncology Group Studies AREN03B2 and AREN0532

INTRODUCTION

The prognostic impact of positive lymph nodes (LN+) and/or singular loss of heterozygosity (LOH) of 1p or 16q were assessed in children with stage III favorable histology Wilms tumor (FHWT) enrolled on AREN0532 or AREN03B2 alone.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 635 stage III FHWT vincristine/dactinomycin/doxorubicin (DD4A)-treated patients met inclusion criteria. Event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival are reported overall and by LN sampling, LN status, LOH 1p, LOH 16q, and a combination of LN status and singular LOH. Patients with unknown or positive combined LOH of 1p and 16q status and AREN03B2-only patients with unknown outcomes or treatment other than DD4A were excluded.

RESULTS

EFS did not differ by study, supporting pooling. Lack of LN sampling (hazard ratio [HR], 2.12; p = .0037), LN positivity (HR, 2.78; p = .0002), LOH 1p (HR, 2.18; p = .0067), and LOH 16q (HR, 1.72; p = .042) were associated with worse EFS. Compared with patients with both LN- and LOH-, those with negative nodes but positive LOH 1p or 16q and those with LN+ but LOH- for 1p or 16q had significantly worse EFS (HR, 3.05 and 3.57, respectively). Patients positive for both LN and LOH had the worst EFS (HR, 6.33; overall group factor, p < .0001).

CONCLUSION

Findings confirm LN+ status as an adverse prognostic factor amplified by presence of singular LOH 1p or 16q, supporting study of intensified therapy for patients with LN+ in combination with singular LOH in a prospective clinical trial.

Performance of magnetic resonance imaging-based prostate cancer risk calculators and decision strategies in two large European medical centres

OBJECTIVES

To compare the performance of currently available biopsy decision support tools incorporating magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings in predicting clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We retrospectively included men who underwent prostate MRI and subsequent targeted and/or systematic prostate biopsies in two large European centres. Available decision support tools were identified by a PubMed search. Performance was assessed by calibration, discrimination, decision curve analysis (DCA) and numbers of biopsies avoided vs csPCa cases missed, before and after recalibration, at risk thresholds of 5%-20%.

RESULTS

A total of 940 men were included, 507 (54%) had csPCa. The median (interquartile range) age, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, and PSA density (PSAD) were 68 (63-72) years, 9 (7-15) ng/mL, and 0.20 (0.13-0.32) ng/mL2 , respectively. In all, 18 multivariable risk calculators (MRI-RCs) and dichotomous biopsy decision strategies based on MRI findings and PSAD thresholds were assessed. The Van Leeuwen model and the Rotterdam Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator (RPCRC) had the best discriminative ability (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.86) of the MRI-RCs that could be assessed in the whole cohort. DCA showed the highest clinical utility for the Van Leeuwen model, followed by the RPCRC. At the 10% threshold the Van Leeuwen model would avoid 22% of biopsies, missing 1.8% of csPCa, whilst the RPCRC would avoid 20% of biopsies, missing 2.6% of csPCas. These multivariable models outperformed all dichotomous decision strategies based only on MRI-findings and PSAD.

CONCLUSIONS

Even in this high-risk cohort, biopsy decision support tools would avoid many prostate biopsies, whilst missing very few csPCa cases. The Van Leeuwen model had the highest clinical utility, followed by the RPCRC. These multivariable MRI-RCs outperformed and should be favoured over decision strategies based only on MRI and PSAD.

Integrating 40-GEP Testing to Improve Clinical Recommendations for Adjuvant Radiation for Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma: Multidisciplinary Consensus Guidelines

Early identification and intervention in patients with cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) who are at high risk for metastasis is important for optimal outcomes. Prognostic tools (e.g., American Joint Committee on Cancer, 8th edition [AJCC-8]) and management guidelines (National Comprehensive Cancer Network® [NCCN]) are useful in helping to identify high-risk patients with cSCC who might benefit from adjuvant therapies, such as radiation and/or immunotherapies; however, traditional staging and management guidelines rely on clinicopathologic risk factors to predict risk, which limits their prognostic accuracy. Gene expression profiling (GEP) is a clinically available, objective metric that can be used in conjunction with traditional clinicopathological staging to help clinicians stratify risk in patients with cSCC. The validated 40-GEP test can accurately classify patients with at least one high-risk feature as being at low (Class 1), higher (Class 2A), or highest (Class 2B) biological risk of nodal or distant metastasis within three years of diagnosis. A multidisciplinary panel comprising radiation oncologists and dermatologists/Mohs micrographic surgeons with expertise in cSCC management convened in June 2023 to discuss the utility of 40-GEP testing in cSCC clinical decision-making in regard to adjuvant radiation therapy (ART). The panel identified gaps in clinical practice in which 40-GEP testing has particular utility: in escalation of care for lower-stage patients with high-risk tumors; in de-escalation of care for patients for whom the risks of ART may outweigh the benefits; and in decision-making regarding elective radiation to the nodal basin. The expert panel developed a risk-based clinical workflow for ART in patients with cSCC, utilizing 40-GEP testing within NCCN management guidelines and AJCC-8 staging.

Estimated pulse-wave velocity predicts survival in patients requiring extracorporeal membrane oxygenation

INTRODUCTION

Arterial stiffness, measured by estimated pulse-wave velocity is a known predictor of major adverse cardiovascular events, however its predictive value in patients requiring extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is unknown.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was performed at the London Health Science Centre in London, Canada between 1996-2021, totaling 255 patients requiring ECMO. Estimated pulse-wave velocity (ePWV) was calculated using an algorithm from the Reference Values for Arterial Stiffness Collaboration. Recorded outcomes included in-hospital death, ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, renal failure and need for renal replacement therapy (RRT). For adjusted analysis, survival-to-discharge was used. Multivariate logistic regression and propensity-score matching were utilized to control for confounding.

RESULTS

On univariate analysis, higher ePWV was significantly predictive of ischemic stroke (OR 1.676, p = 0.0002) and in-hospital death (OR 1.20, p = 0.006), but insignificant for predicting hemorrhagic stroke (OR 1.07, p = 0.710), and appeared protective for renal failure (OR 0.88 [0.78-0.99], p = 0.034) and RRT (OR 0.87, p = 0.027). On multivariate analysis and propensity-score matching, five of six models demonstrated ePWV as an independent predictor of survival-to-discharge. (OR 0.70, p = 0.00,021; OR 0.72, p = 0.0002; OR 0.87, p = 0.045; OR 0.85, p = 0.013; OR 0.57, p = 0.012).

CONCLUSIONS

ePWV is a promising marker for risk-stratification in ECMO patients. Further investigation is required to better delineate the role of arterial health assessment in disease trajectory and strengthen the validity of AS as a marker of interest in medical and surgical management.

Combining the radiomics signature and HPV status for the risk stratification of patients with OPC

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to perform risk stratification of oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) for treatment de-escalation based on the radiomics analysis and human papillomavirus (HPV) status.

METHODS

A total of 265 patients with OPC who underwent baseline contrast-enhanced computed tomography were analyzed, and the patients were grouped into the training (n = 133) and test (n = 132) cohorts at a ratio of 1:1. Intratumoral and peritumoral radiomics features were extracted, and the radiomics signature (Rscore) was calculated using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression (LASSO) and Cox regression analyses.

RESULTS

Twelve features were selected to establish the radiomics signature (Rscore) of intratumoral regions +10-mm peritumoral regions, which yielded maximum AUCs of 0.835, 0.798, and 0.784 in the training, test, and validation cohorts, respectively. Patients with OPC were divided into the high-risk group, intermediate-risk group, and low-risk group based on the Rscore and HPV status and had different prognoses. Patients in the low-risk group benefit from radiotherapy alone, and patients in the intermediate-risk group only benefitted from chemoradiotherapy.

CONCLUSION

The radiomics signature appears to improve the predictive performance of clinical characteristics for oropharyngeal cancer. The combined stratification of the radiomics signature and HPV status might be preferred to select patients for de-escalated treatment.

EAACI/ENDA position paper on drug provocation testing

In drug hypersensitivity, drug provocation testing (DPT), also called drug challenge, is the gold standard for investigation. In recent years, risk stratification has become an important tool for adjusting the diagnostic strategy to the perceived risk, whilst still maintaining a high level of safety for the patient. Skin tests are recommended before DPT but may be omitted in low-risk patients. The task force suggests a strict definition of such low-risk patients in children and adults. Based on experience and evidence from studies of allergy to beta-lactam antibiotics, an algorithm on how to adjust DPT to the risk, and when to omit skin tests before DPT, is presented. For other antibiotics, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and other drugs, skin tests are poorly validated and DPT is frequently necessary. We recommend performing DPT with chemotherapeutics and biologicals to avoid unnecessary desensitization procedures and DPT with skin tests negative contrast media. We suggest DPT with anesthetics only in highly specialized centers. Specifics of DPT to proton pump inhibitors, anticonvulsants and corticosteroids are discussed. This position paper provides general recommendations and guidance on optimizing use of DPT, whilst balancing benefits with patient safety and optimizing the use of the limited available resources.

A Multimodality Video-Based AI Biomarker For Aortic Stenosis Development And Progression

Importance

Aortic stenosis (AS) is a major public health challenge with a growing therapeutic landscape, but current biomarkers do not inform personalized screening and follow-up.

Objective

A video-based artificial intelligence (AI) biomarker (Digital AS Severity index [DASSi]) can detect severe AS using single-view long-axis echocardiography without Doppler. Here, we deploy DASSi to patients with no or mild/moderate AS at baseline to identify AS development and progression.

Design Setting and Participants

We defined two cohorts of patients without severe AS undergoing echocardiography in the Yale-New Haven Health System (YNHHS) (2015-2021, 4.1[IQR:2.4-5.4] follow-up years) and Cedars-Sinai Medical Center (CSMC) (2018-2019, 3.4[IQR:2.8-3.9] follow-up years). We further developed a novel computational pipeline for the cross-modality translation of DASSi into cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging in the UK Biobank (2.5[IQR:1.6-3.9] follow-up years). Analyses were performed between August 2023-February 2024.

Exposure

DASSi (range: 0-1) derived from AI applied to echocardiography and CMR videos.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Annualized change in peak aortic valve velocity (AV-Vmax) and late (>6 months) aortic valve replacement (AVR).

Results

A total of 12,599 participants were included in the echocardiographic study (YNHHS: n=8,798, median age of 71 [IQR (interquartile range):60-80] years, 4250 [48.3%] women, and CSMC: n=3,801, 67 [IQR:54-78] years, 1685 [44.3%] women). Higher baseline DASSi was associated with faster progression in AV-Vmax (per 0.1 DASSi increments: YNHHS: +0.033 m/s/year [95%CI:0.028-0.038], n=5,483, and CSMC: +0.082 m/s/year [0.053-0.111], n=1,292), with levels ≥ vs <0.2 linked to a 4-to-5-fold higher AVR risk (715 events in YNHHS; adj.HR 4.97 [95%CI: 2.71-5.82], 56 events in CSMC: 4.04 [0.92-17.7]), independent of age, sex, ethnicity/race, ejection fraction and AV-Vmax. This was reproduced across 45,474 participants (median age 65 [IQR:59-71] years, 23,559 [51.8%] women) undergoing CMR in the UK Biobank (adj.HR 11.4 [95%CI:2.56-50.60] for DASSi ≥vs<0.2). Saliency maps and phenome-wide association studies supported links with traditional cardiovascular risk factors and diastolic dysfunction.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of patients without severe AS undergoing echocardiography or CMR imaging, a new AI-based video biomarker is independently associated with AS development and progression, enabling opportunistic risk stratification across cardiovascular imaging modalities as well as potential application on handheld devices.

Breast Cancer Screening in the Intermediate-Risk Population: Falling Through the Cracks?

Breast cancer screening guidelines vary for women at intermediate risk (15%-20% lifetime risk) for developing breast cancer across jurisdictions. Currently available risk assessment models have differing strengths and weaknesses, creating difficulty and ambiguity in selecting the most appropriate model to utilize. Clarifying which model to utilize in individual circumstances may help determine the best screening guidelines to use for each individual.

HbA1c and fasting plasma glucose levels are equally related to incident cardiovascular risk in a high CVD risk population without known diabetes

OBJECTIVES

Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is associated with increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Whether screen-detected T2DM, based on fasting plasma glucose (FPG) or on HbA1c, are associated with different risks of incident CVD in high-risk populations and which one is preferable for diabetes screening in these populations, remains unclear.

METHODS

8,274 high-risk CVD participants were included from the UCC-SMART cohort. Participants were divided into groups based on prior T2DM diagnosis, and combinations of elevated/non-elevated FPG and HbA1c (cut-offs at 7 mmol/L and 48 mmol/mol, respectively): Group 0: known T2DM; group 1: elevated FPG/HbA1c; group 2: elevated FPG, non-elevated HbA1c; group 3: non-elevated FPG, elevated HbA1c; group 1 + 2: elevated FPG, regardless of HbA1c; group 1 + 3: elevated HbA1c, regardless of FPG; and group 4 (reference), non-elevated FPG/HbA1c.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 6.3 years (IQR 3.3-9.8), 712 cardiovascular events occurred. Compared to the reference (group 4), group 0 was at increased risk (HR 1.40; 95 % CI 1.16-1.68), but group 1 (HR 1.16; 95 % CI 0.62-2.18), 2 (HR 1.18; 95 % CI 0.84-1.67), 3 (HR 0.61; 95 % CI 0.15-2.44), 1 + 2 (HR 1.17; 95 % CI 0.86-1.59) and 1 + 3 (HR 1.01; 95 % CI 0.57-1.79) were not. However, spline interpolation showed a linearly increasing risk with increasing HbA1c/FPG, but did not allow for identification of other cut-off points.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on current cut-offs, FPG and HbA1c at screening were equally related to incident CVD in high-risk populations without known T2DM. Hence, neither FPG, nor HbA1c, is preferential for diabetes screening in this population with respect to risk of incident CVD.

A novel risk assessment tool for postoperative delirium in vascular surgery: The stress model (Siena posTopeRative dElirium in vaScular Surgery)

OBJECTIVE

Postoperative delirium (POD) is a common complication with a high health-related impact. The creation of a model (Siena posTopeRative dElirium in vaScular Surgery) to identify high-risk patients with consecutive prompt diagnosis and correct management.

METHODS

This is an observational retrospective study to evaluate POD incidence in patients who underwent elective vascular surgery procedures between 2018 and 2020. POD was detected using CAM and defined as the onset of an acute confusional state, clinically manifesting as a disturbed state of consciousness, cognitive dysfunction, or alteration in perception and behavior. The total population was divided in the development and validation subsamples. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed, identifying variables related to the occurrence of POD. An additive score was created and the STRESS score was internally validated using the Validation subgroup.

RESULTS

A total of 1067 patients were enrolled. POD occurred in 111 cases (10.4%). Multivariable logistic regression analysis for POD occurrence revealed as significant predictors: age>75 years, CKD, dyslipidaemia, psychiatric disease, CAD, hospitalization in the previous month, preoperative NLR >3.59, preoperative Hb < 12 g/dl, preoperative Barthel score <75, major amputation, CLTI revascularization, general anesthesia, and postoperative urinary catheter. These variables were used to create the STRESS score. The model was applied to both development and validation subgroups; AUC was respectively 0.7079 (p < .0001) and 0.7270 (p < .0001).

CONCLUSION

The STRESS score has a good predictive potentiality for POD occurrence in elective vascular surgery procedures. However, implementation and external validation are needed to be correctly used in everyday clinical practice.

Arrhythmic Mitral Valve Prolapse and Sports Activity: Pathophysiology, Risk Stratification, and Sports Eligibility Assessment

Although mitral valve prolapse (MVP) is the most prevalent valvular abnormality in Western countries and generally carries a good prognosis, a small subset of patients is exposed to a significant risk of malignant ventricular arrhythmias (VAs) and sudden cardiac death (SCD), the so-called arrhythmic MVP (AMVP) syndrome. Recent work has emphasized phenotypical risk features of severe AMVP and clarified its pathophysiology. However, the appropriate assessment and risk stratification of patients with suspected AMVP remains a clinical conundrum, with the possibility of both overestimating and underestimating the risk of malignant VAs, with the inappropriate use of advanced imaging and invasive electrophysiology study on one hand, and the catastrophic occurrence of SCD on the other. Furthermore, the sports eligibility assessment of athletes with AMVP remains ill defined, especially in the grey zone of intermediate arrhythmic risk. The definition, epidemiology, pathophysiology, risk stratification, and treatment of AMVP are covered in the present review. Considering recent guidelines and expert consensus statements, we propose a comprehensive pathway to facilitate appropriate counseling concerning the practice of competitive/leisure-time sports, envisioning shared decision making and the multidisciplinary "sports heart team" evaluation of borderline cases. Our final aim is to encourage an active lifestyle without compromising patients' safety.

Development and validation of mortality prediction models for heart transplantation using nutrition-related indicators: a single-center study from China

Objective

We sought to develop and validate a mortality prediction model for heart transplantation (HT) using nutrition-related indicators, which clinicians could use to identify patients at high risk of death after HT.

Method

The model was developed for and validated in adult participants in China who received HT between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2020. 428 subjects were enrolled in the study and randomly divided into derivation and validation cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. The likelihood-ratio test based on Akaike information was used to select indicators and develop the prediction model. The performance of models was assessed and validated by area under the curve (AUC), C-index, calibration curves, net reclassification index, and integrated discrimination improvement.

Result

The mean (SD) age was 48.67 (12.33) years and mean (SD) nutritional risk index (NRI) was 100.47 (11.89) in the derivation cohort. Mortality after HT developed in 66 of 299 patients in the derivation cohort and 28 of 129 in the validation cohort. Age, NRI, serum creatine, and triglyceride were included in the full model. The AUC of this model was 0.76 and the C statistics was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.67-0.78) in the derivation cohort and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.62-0.81) in the validation cohort. The multivariable model improved integrated discrimination compared with the reduced model that included age and NRI (6.9%; 95% CI, 1.8%-15.1%) and the model which only included variable NRI (14.7%; 95% CI, 7.4%-26.2%) in the derivation cohort. Compared with the model that only included variable NRI, the full model improved categorical net reclassification index both in the derivation cohort (41.8%; 95% CI, 9.9%-58.8%) and validation cohort (60.7%; 95% CI, 9.0%-100.5%).

Conclusion

The proposed model was able to predict mortality after HT and estimate individualized risk of postoperative death. Clinicians could use this model to identify patients at high risk of postoperative death before HT surgery, which would help with targeted preventative therapy to reduce the mortality risk.

Predictive Value of Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Risk Stratification and Molecular Classification of Endometrial Cancer

This study evaluated the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings of endometrial cancer (EC) patients and identified differences based on risk group and molecular classification. The study involved a total of 175 EC patients. The MRI data were retrospectively reviewed and compared based on the risk of recurrence. Additionally, the associations between imaging phenotypes and genomic signatures were assessed. The low-risk and non-low-risk groups (intermediate, high-intermediate, high, metastatic) showed significant differences in tumor diameter (p < 0.001), signal intensity and heterogeneity on diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) (p = 0.003), deep myometrial invasion (involvement of more than 50% of the myometrium), cervical invasion (p < 0.001), extrauterine extension (p = 0.002), and lymphadenopathy (p = 0.003). Greater diffusion restriction and more heterogeneity on DWI were exhibited in the non-low-risk group than in the low-risk group. Deep myometrial invasion, cervical invasion, extrauterine extension, lymphadenopathy, recurrence, and stage discrepancy were more common in the non-low-risk group (p < 0.001). A significant difference in microsatellite stability status was observed in the heterogeneity of the contrast-enhanced T1-weighted images (p = 0.027). However, no significant differences were found in MRI parameters related to TP53 mutation. MRI features can be valuable predictors for differentiating risk groups in patients with EC. However, further investigations are needed to explore the imaging markers based on molecular classification.

Construction of an instrument to enable the assessment of the risk of falls in older outpatients: A quantitative methodological study

OBJECTIVES

To develop an instrument to facilitate the risk assessment of falls in older outpatients.

DESIGN

A quantitative methodological study using the cross-sectional data.

METHODS

This study enrolled 1988 older participants who underwent comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) in an outpatient clinic from May 2020 to November 2022. The history of any falls (≥1 falls in a year) and recurrent falls (≥2 falls in a year) were investigated. Potential risk factors of falls were selected by stepwise logistic regression, and a screening tool was constructed based on nomogram. The tool performance was compared with two reference tools (Fried Frailty Phenotype; CGA with 10 items, CGA-10) by using receiver operating curves, sensitivity (Sen), specificity (Spe), and area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Age, unintentional weight loss, depression measured by the Patient Health Questionnaire-2, muscle strength measured by the five times sit-to-stand test, and stand balance measured by semi- and full-tandem standing were the most important risk factors for falls. A fall risk screening tool was constructed with the six measurements (FRST-6). FRST-6 showed the best AUC (Sen, Spe) of 0.75 (Sen = 0.72, Spe = 0.69) for recurrent falls and 0.65 (Sen = 0.74, Spe = 0.48) for any falls. FRST-6 was comparable to CGA-10 and outperformed FFP in performance.

CONCLUSIONS

Age, depression, weight loss, gait, and balance were important risk factors of falls. The FRST-6 tool based on these factors showed acceptable performance in risk stratification.

IMPACT

Performing a multifactorial assessment in primary care clinics is urgent for falls prevention. The FRST-6 provides a simple and practical way for falls risk screening. With this tool, healthcare professionals can efficiently identify patients at risk of falling and make appropriate recommendations in resource-limited settings.

PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION

No patient or public contribution was received, due to our study design.

Precision Medicine for Nasopharyngeal Cancer-A Review of Current Prognostic Strategies

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is an Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) driven malignancy arising from the nasopharyngeal epithelium. Current treatment strategies depend on the clinical stage of the disease, including the extent of the primary tumour, the extent of nodal disease, and the presence of distant metastasis. With the close association of EBV infection with NPC development, EBV biomarkers have shown promise in predicting treatment outcomes. Among the omic technologies, RNA and miRNA signatures have been widely studied, showing promising results in the research setting to predict treatment response. The transformation of radiology images into measurable features has facilitated the use of radiomics to generate predictive models for better prognostication and treatment selection. Nonetheless, much of this work remains in the research realm, and challenges remain in clinical implementation.

Corrigendum: Time to clinical improvement: an appropriate surrogate endpoint for pulmonary arterial hypertension medication trials

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fcvm.2023.1142721.].

Neurological Disorders in Takotsubo Syndrome: Clinical Phenotypes and Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Neurological disorders as a risk factor for Takotsubo syndrome (TTS) are not well characterized. The aim of the study was to evaluate TTS-associated neurological phenotypes and outcome.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Patients with TTS enrolled in the international multicenter GEIST (German Italian Spanish Takotsubo) registry were analyzed. Prevalence, clinical characteristics, and short- and long-term outcomes of patients with TTS were recorded. A subgroup analysis of the 5 most represented neurological disorders was performed. In total, 400 (17%) of 2301 patients had neurological disorders. The most represented neurological conditions were previous cerebrovascular events (39%), followed by neurodegenerative disorders (30.7%), migraine (10%), epilepsy (9.5%), and brain tumors (5%). During hospitalization, patients with neurological disorders had longer in-hospital stay (8 [interquartile range, 5-12] versus 6 [interquartile range, 5-9] days; P<0.01) and more often experienced in-hospital complications (27% versus 16%; P=0.01) mainly driven by cardiogenic shock and in-hospital death (12% versus 7.6% and 6.5% versus 2.8%, respectively; both P<0.01). Survival analysis showed a higher mortality rate in neurological patients both at 60 days and long-term (8.8% versus 3.4% and 23.5% versus 10.1%, respectively; both P<0.01). Neurological disorder was an independent predictor of both the 60-day and long-term mortality rate (odds ratio, 1.78 [95% CI, 1.07-2.97]; P=0.02; hazard ratio, 1.72 [95% CI, 1.33-2.22]; both P<0.001). Patients with neurodegenerative disorders had the worst prognosis among the neurological disease subgroups, whereas patients with TTS with migraine had a favorable prognosis (long-term mortality rates, 29.2% and 9.7%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Neurological disorders identify a high-risk TTS subgroup for enhanced short- and long-term mortality rate. Careful recognition of neurological disorders and phenotype is therefore needed.

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy plus concurrent chemoradiotherapy versus concurrent chemoradiotherapy alone in elderly patients with stage III-IVa nasopharyngeal carcinoma: A real-world study based on medical comorbidities

PURPOSE

To evaluate the outcomes and toxicities of adding neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) to concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) in elderly (≥65 years) patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LANPC, stage III-IVa).

METHODS AND MATERIALS

Using an NPC-specific database, 245 elderly patients with stage III-IVa NPC, receiving CCRT +/- NAC, and an Adult Co-morbidity Evaluation 27 (ACE-27) score <2 were included. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) based on TNM stage and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA were applied for risk stratification. The primary end point was disease-free survival (DFS).

RESULTS

Two risk groups were generated by the RPA model. In the high-risk group (EBV DNA < 4000 copy/ml with stage IVa & EBV DNA ≥4000 copy/ml with stage III-IVa), patients treated with NAC plus CCRT achieved improved 5-year DFS rates compared to those who received CCRT alone (56.9% vs. 29.4%; p = 0.003). But we failed to observe the survival benefit of additional NAC in the low-risk group (EBV DNA <4000 copy/ml with stage III). The most common severe acute toxic effects were leucopenia (46.8% vs. 24.4%) and neutropenia (43.7% vs. 20.2%) in the NAC plus CCRT group versus CCRT group with statistically significant differences.

CONCLUSIONS

The addition of NAC to CCRT was associated with better DFS for the high-risk group of elderly LANPC patients with ACE-27 score <2. However, the survival benefit of additional NAC was not observed in low-risk patients.

Liver stiffness is associated with right heart dysfunction, cardiohepatic syndrome, and prognosis in pulmonary hypertension

BACKGROUND

Pulmonary hypertension (PH) can lead to congestive hepatopathy, known as cardiohepatic syndrome (CHS). Hepatic congestion is associated with increased liver stiffness, which can be quantified using shear wave elastography. We aimed to investigate whether hepatic shear wave elastography detects patients at risk in the early stages of PH.

METHODS

Sixty-three prospectively enrolled patients undergoing right heart catheterization (52 diagnosed with PH and 11 with invasive exclusion of PH) and 52 healthy volunteers underwent assessments including echocardiography and hepatic shear wave elastography. CHS was defined as increased levels of ≥2 of the following: gamma-glutamyl transferase, alkaline phosphatase, and bilirubin. Liver stiffness was defined as normal (≤5.0 kPa) or high (>5.0 kPa).

RESULTS

Compared with normal liver stiffness, high liver stiffness was associated with impaired right ventricular (RV) and right atrial (RA) function (median [interquartile range] RV ejection fraction: 54 [49; 57]% vs 45 [34; 51]%, p < 0.001; RA reservoir strain: 49 [41; 54]% vs 33 [22; 41]%, p < 0.001), more severe tricuspid insufficiency (p < 0.001), and higher prevalence of hepatovenous backflow (2% vs 29%, p < 0.001) and CHS (2% vs 10%, p = 0.038). In the patient subgroup with precapillary PH (n = 48), CHS and high liver stiffness were associated with increased European Society of Cardiology/European Respiratory Society 2022 risk scores (p = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

Shear wave liver elastography yields important information regarding right heart function and may complement risk assessment in patients with (suspected) PH.

Elderly Patients with Idiopathic Pulmonary Hypertension: Clinical Characteristics, Survival, and Risk Stratification in a Single-Center Prospective Registry

INTRODUCTION

The predictive value of the risk stratification scales in elderly patients with IPAH might differ from that in younger patients. It is unknown whether young and older IPAH patients have the same survival dependence on PAH-specific therapy numbers. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic relevance of risk stratification scales and PAH medication numbers in elderly IPAH patients in comparison with young IPAH patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 119 patients from a prospective single-center PAH registry were divided into group I < 60 years old (n = 89) and group II ≥ 60 years old (n = 30). ESC/ERS, REVEAL, and REVEAL 2.0 risk stratification scores were assessed at baseline, as well as H2FpEF score and survival at follow-up.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up period of 2.9 years (1.63; 6.0), 42 (35.3%) patients died; at 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, and 10 years, survival was 95%, 88.6%, 78.5%, 61.7%, 48.5%, and 33.7%, respectively. No survival differences were observed between the two groups, despite the use of monotherapy in the elderly patients. The best predictive REVEAL value in elderly patients (IPAH patients ≥ 60 years) was AUC 0.73 (0.56-0.91), p = 0.03; and in patients with LHD comorbidities in the entire cohort, it was AUC 0.73 (0.59-0.87), p < 0.009. Factors independently associated with death in the entire cohort were CKD (p = 0.01, HR 0.2), the right-to-left ventricle dimension ratio (p = 0.0047, HR 5.97), and NT-proBNP > 1400 pg/mL (p = 0.008, HR 3.18).

CONCLUSION

Risk stratification in the elderly IPAH patients requires a fundamentally different approach than that of younger patients, taking into account the initial limitations in physical performance and comorbidities that interfere with current assessment scores. The REVEAL score reliably stratifies patients at any age and LHD comorbidities. The initial monotherapy seems to be reasonable in patients over 60 years. Selection tools for initial combination PAH therapy in older IPAH patients with comorbidities need to be validated in prospective observational studies.

Identification of hypoxic-related lncRNAs prognostic model for revealing clinical prognostic and immune infiltration characteristic of cutaneous melanoma

BACKGROUND

Cutaneous melanoma (CM) remains a significant threat to human health. There are clues to the potential role of hypoxia in CM progression. However, the role of hypoxia-related lncRNAs (HRLs) in CM has not been clarified.

METHODS

We obtained hypoxia related genes from MSigDB database and subsequently identified HRLs by applying TCGA database. LASSO-univariate and multivariate Cox analysis were used to comprehensively analyze the survival characteristics and HRLs expressions, and a novel HRLs-related prognostic risk model was subsequently established for comprehensive analysis.

RESULTS

The established risk model could evaluate the clinical outcome of CM accurately. The ability of the model-related risk score was also validated as an independent prognostic indicator of CM. Immune infiltration, TMB analysis, drug sensitivity analysis and immunotherapy evaluation were conducted to comprehensively assess the possible causes of the difference in prognosis. The reliability of bioinformatics results was partially verified by RT-qPCR.

CONCLUSION

We established a new HRLs related risk model and discussed the potential role of hypoxia in the development of CM, which provided a novel basis for CM risk stratification.

Serum prolactin levels and mortality in adults without prolactinoma: A meta-analysis

PURPOSE

Prolactin is a highly versatile, multifunctional hormone synthesized and secreted by lactotroph cells of the anterior pituitary. Its metabolic role has been extensively studied even in normoprolactinemic populations. Recently, a wealth of observational data outlines the potential prognostic value of prolactin in various clinical settings. This systematic review aims to systematically evaluate and quantitatively synthesize the association between serum prolactin levels and risk of mortality in adults without prolactinoma.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted up to June 10, 2023 to identify studies reporting the association of serum prolactin levels with clinical outcomes of adults without prolactinoma. A random-effects meta-analysis was conducted to quantify the adjusted hazard ratios [(a)HRs] for all-cause and cardiovascular death during follow-up.

RESULTS

Twenty-eight studies were deemed eligible reporting the outcomes of adults without prolactinoma, in whom serum prolactin levels were measured for risk-stratification. Fourteen studies reported appropriate data for meta-analysis encompassing a total of 23,596 individuals. Each unit of prolactin increase was independently associated with increased risk of all-cause (pooled aHR=1.17 [1.08-1.27]; I2=48%) and cardiovascular mortality (pooled aHR=1.54 [1.14-2.09]; I2=89%). Individuals belonging to the highest prolactin category had significantly higher risk for all-cause (pooled aHR=1.81 [1.43-2.30]; I2=65%) and cardiovascular (pooled aHR=1.59 [1.04-2.42]; I2=82%) mortality compared to their lowest prolactin category counterparts. The association between prolactin levels and in-hospital death did not reach statistical significance.

CONCLUSIONS

Prolactin levels seem to be an independent predictor for mortality. Further validation is warranted before its role as a risk stratification tool can be delineated in clinical practice.

Perioperative Blindness in Spine Surgery: A Scoping Literature Review

Perioperative vision loss (POVL) is a devastating surgical complication that impacts both the recovery from surgery and quality of life, most commonly occurring after spine surgery. With rates of spine surgery dramatically increasing, the prevalence of POVL will increase proportionately. This scoping review aims to aggregate the literature pertinent to POVL in spine surgery and consolidate recommendations and preventative measures to reduce the risk of POVL. There are several causes of POVL, and the main contribution following spine surgery is ischemic optic neuropathy (ION). Vision loss often manifests immediately following surgery and is irreversible and severe. Diffusion weighted imaging has recently surfaced as a diagnostic tool to identify ION. There are no effective treatments; therefore, risk stratification for counseling and prevention are vital. Patients undergoing prone surgery of long duration and/or with significant expected blood loss are at greatest risk. Future research is necessary to develop effective treatments.

Stratifying Antenatal Hydronephrosis: Predicting High-Grade VUR Using Ultrasound and Scintigraphy

(1) Background: Antenatal hydronephrosis (AHN), detected in approximately one percent of prenatal ultrasounds, is caused by vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) in 15-21% of cases, a condition with significant risks such as urinary tract infections and renal scarring. Our study addresses the diagnostic challenges of VUR in AHN. Utilizing renal ultrasonography and scintigraphy, we developed a novel scoring system that accurately predicts high-grade VUR, optimizing diagnostic precision while minimizing the need for more invasive methods like voiding cystourethrogram (VCUG); (2) Methods: This retrospective study re-analyzed renal ultrasonography, scintigraphy, and VCUG images from infants admitted between 2003 and 2013, excluding cases with complex urinary anomalies; (3) Results: Our analysis included 124 patients (75% male), of whom 11% had high-grade VUR. The multivariate analysis identified visible ureter, reduced renal length, and decreased differential renal function (DRF) as primary predictors. Consequently, we established a three-tier risk score, classifying patients into low, intermediate, and high-risk groups for high-grade VUR, with corresponding prevalences of 2.3%, 22.2%, and 75.0%. The scoring system demonstrated 86% sensitivity and 79% specificity; (4) Conclusions: Our scoring system, focusing on objective parameters of the visible ureter, renal length, and DRF, effectively identifies high-grade VUR in AHN patients. This method enhances diagnostics in ANH by reducing reliance on VCUG and facilitating more tailored and less invasive patient care.

Corrigendum: LASSO-derived prognostic model predicts cancer-specific survival in advanced pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma over 50 years of age: a retrospective study of SEER database research

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2023.1336251.].

Radiomics and artificial intelligence for risk stratification of pulmonary nodules: Ready for primetime?

Pulmonary nodules are ubiquitously found on computed tomography (CT) imaging either incidentally or via lung cancer screening and require careful diagnostic evaluation and management to both diagnose malignancy when present and avoid unnecessary biopsy of benign lesions. To engage in this complex decision-making, clinicians must first risk stratify pulmonary nodules to determine what the best course of action should be. Recent developments in imaging technology, computer processing power, and artificial intelligence algorithms have yielded radiomics-based computer-aided diagnosis tools that use CT imaging data including features invisible to the naked human eye to predict pulmonary nodule malignancy risk and are designed to be used as a supplement to routine clinical risk assessment. These tools vary widely in their algorithm construction, internal and external validation populations, intended-use populations, and commercial availability. While several clinical validation studies have been published, robust clinical utility and clinical effectiveness data are not yet currently available. However, there is reason for optimism as ongoing and future studies aim to target this knowledge gap, in the hopes of improving the diagnostic process for patients with pulmonary nodules.

Genetic, clinical and imaging implications of a noncompaction phenotype population with preserved ejection fraction

Introduction

The genotype of symptomatic left ventricular noncompaction phenotype (LVNC) subjects with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and its effect on clinical presentation are less well studied. We aimed to characterize the genetic, cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) and clinical background, and genotype-phenotype relationship in LVNC with preserved LVEF.

Methods

We included 54 symptomatic LVNC individuals (LVEF: 65 ± 5%) whose samples were analyzed with a 174-gene next-generation sequencing panel and 54 control (C) subjects. The results were evaluated using the criteria of the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics. Medical data suggesting a higher risk of cardiovascular complications were considered "red flags".

Results

Of the LVNC population, 24% carried pathogenic or likely pathogenic (P) mutations; 56% carried variants of uncertain significance (VUS); and 20% were free from cardiomyopathy-related mutations. Regarding the CMR parameters, the LVNC and C groups differed significantly, while the three genetic subgroups were comparable. We found a significant relationship between red flags and genotype; furthermore, the number of red flags in a single subject differed significantly among the genetic subgroups (p = 0.002) and correlated with the genotype (r = 0.457, p = 0.01). In 6 out of 7 LVNC subjects diagnosed in childhood, P or VUS mutations were found.

Discussion

The large number of P mutations and the association between red flags and genotype underline the importance of genetic-assisted risk stratification in symptomatic LVNC with preserved LVEF.

A Deep Patient-Similarity Learning Framework for the Assessment of Diastolic Dysfunction in Elderly Patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Age-related changes in cardiac structure and function are well recognized and make the clinical determination of abnormal LV diastolic function (LVDD) particularly challenging in the elderly. We investigated whether a deep neural network (DeepNN) model[70] of LVDD, previously validated in a younger cohort, can be implemented in an older population to predict incident heart failure (HF).

METHODS

A previously developed DeepNN was tested on 5,596 older participants (66-90 years; 57% female; 20% black) from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. The association of DeepNN predictions with HF or all-cause death for the American College of Cardiology Foundation/American Heart Association Stage A/B (n = 4,054) and Stage C/D (n = 1,542) subgroups was assessed.

RESULTS

The DeepNN-predicted High-Risk compared to the Low-Risk phenogroup demonstrated an increased incidence of HF and death for both Stage A/B and Stage C/D (log-rank p < 0.0001 for all). In multivariable analyses, the High-Risk phenogroup remained an independent predictor of HF and death in both Stages A/B (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) [95% confidence interval], 6.52[4.20-10.13] and 2.21(1.68-2.91), both p < 0.0001) and Stage C/D (6.51[4.06-10.44] and 1.03(1.00-1.06), both p < 0.0001) respectively. In addition, DeepNN showed incremental value over the 2016 ASE/EACVI guidelines (Net reclassification index, 0.5[CI:0.4-0.6], p < 0.001; C-statistic improvement, DeepNN [0.76] vs. ASE/EACVI [0.70], p < 0.001) overall and maintained across stage-groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite training with a younger cohort, a deep patient-similarity-based learning framework for assessing LVDD provides a robust prediction of all-cause death and incident HF for older patients.

Predicting post-stroke cognitive impairment using electronic health record data

Importance

Secondary prevention interventions to reduce post-stroke cognitive impairment (PSCI) can be aided by the early identification of high-risk individuals who would benefit from risk factor modification.

Objective

To develop and evaluate a predictive model to identify patients at increased risk of PSCI over 5 years using data easily accessible from electronic health records.

Design

Cohort study with patients enrolled between 2003-2016 with follow-up through 2022.

Setting

Primary care practices affiliated with two academic medical centers.

Participants

Individuals 45 years or older, without prior stroke or prevalent cognitive impairment, with primary care visits and an incident ischemic stroke between 2003-2016 (development/internal validation cohort) or 2010-2022 (external validation cohort).

Exposures

Predictors of PSCI were ascertained from the electronic health record.

Main Outcome

The outcome was incident dementia/cognitive impairment within 5 years and beginning 3 months following stroke, ascertained using ICD-9/10 codes. For model variable selection, we considered potential predictors of PSCI and constructed 400 bootstrap samples with two-thirds of the model derivation sample. We ran 10-fold cross-validated Cox proportional hazards models using a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalty. Variables selected in >25% of samples were included.

Results

The analysis included 332 incident diagnoses of PSCI in the development cohort (n=3,741), and 161 and 128 incident diagnoses in the internal (n=1,925) and external (n=2,237) validation cohorts. The c-statistic for predicting PSCI was 0.731 (95% CI: 0.694-0.768) in the internal validation cohort, and 0.724 (95% CI: 0.681-0.766) in the external validation cohort. A risk score based on the beta coefficients of predictors from the development cohort stratified patients into low (0-7 points), intermediate (8-11 points), and high (12-35 points) risk groups. The hazard ratios for incident PSCI were significantly different by risk categories in internal (High, HR: 6.2, 95% CI 4.1-9.3; Intermediate, HR 2.7, 95% CI: 1.8-4.1) and external (High, HR: 6.1, 95% CI: 3.9-9.6; Intermediate, HR 2.8, 95% CI: 1.9-4.3) validation cohorts.

Conclusions and Relevance

Five-year risk of PSCI can be accurately predicted using routinely collected data. Model output can be used to risk stratify and identify individuals at increased risk for PSCI for preventive efforts.

Is inadequate risk stratification diluting hazard ratio estimates in randomized clinical trials?

In randomized clinical trials, analyses of time-to-event data without risk stratification, or with stratification based on pre-selected factors revealed at the end of the trial to be at most weakly associated with risk, are quite common. We caution that such analyses are likely delivering hazard ratio estimates that unwittingly dilute the evidence of benefit for the test relative to the control treatment. To make our case, first, we use a hypothetical scenario to contrast risk-unstratified and risk-stratified hazard ratios. Thereafter, we draw attention to the previously published 5-step stratified testing and amalgamation routine (5-STAR) approach in which a pre-specified treatment-blinded algorithm is applied to survival times from the trial to partition patients into well-separated risk strata using baseline covariates determined to be jointly strongly prognostic for event risk. After treatment unblinding, a treatment comparison is done within each risk stratum and stratum-level results are averaged for overall inference. For illustration, we use 5-STAR to reanalyze data for the primary and key secondary time-to-event endpoints from three published cardiovascular outcomes trials. The results show that the 5-STAR estimate is typically smaller (i.e. more in favor of the test treatment) than the originally reported (traditional) estimate. This is not surprising because 5-STAR mitigates the presumed dilution bias in the traditional hazard ratio estimate caused by no or inadequate risk stratification, as evidenced by two detailed examples. Pre-selection of stratification factors at the trial design stage to achieve adequate risk stratification for the analysis will often be challenging. In such settings, an objective risk stratification approach such as 5-STAR, which is partly aligned with guidance from the US Food and Drug Administration on covariate-adjustment in clinical trials, is worthy of consideration.

Differential effects of growth restriction and immaturity on predicted psychomotor development at 4 years of age in preterms

BACKGROUND

Fetal growth restriction and immaturity are associated with poor neurocognitive development and child psychopathology affecting educational success at school and beyond. However, the differential effects of either obstetrical risk factor on predicted psychomotor development have not yet been deciphered.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to separately study the impact of growth restriction and that of immaturity on predicted psychomotor development at the preschool age of 4.3 (standard deviation, 0.8) years using birthweight percentiles in a prospective cohort of preterm infants born at ≤37+6/7 weeks of gestation. Differences between small for gestational age newborns with intrauterine growth restriction and those without were described. We examined predicted total psychomotor development score, predicted developmental disability index, calculated morphometric vitality index, and predicted intelligence quotient, Porteus Maze test score, and neurologic examination optimality score in 854 preterm infants from a large prospective screening cohort (cranial ultrasound screening, n=5,301).

STUDY DESIGN

This was a prospective cranial ultrasound screening study with a single-center cohort observational design (data collection done from 1984-1988, analysis done in 2022). The study included 5,301 live-born infants, of whom 854 (16.1%) were preterm infants (≤37+6/7 weeks' gestation), and was conducted on the day of discharge of the mother at 5 to 8 days postpartum from a level 3 perinatal center. Predicted psychomotor development, as assessed by the predicted total psychomotor development score, predicted developmental disability index, calculated morphometric vitality index, predicted intelligence quotient, Porteus Maze test score, and neurologic examination optimality score were calculated. We related psychomotor development indices and measures to gestational age in 3 groups of birthweight percentiles (ie, 10%, 50%, and 90% for small, appropriate, and large for gestational age newborns, respectively) using linear regression analysis, analysis of variance, multivariate analysis of variance, and t test procedures.

RESULTS

The key result of our study is the observation that in preterm infants born at ≤37+6/7 weeks of gestation, growth restriction as compared with immaturity is the prime risk factor for impairment of overall predicted psychomotor development, intelligence quotient, Porteus Maze test results, and neurologic examination optimality score at the preschool age of 4.3 (standard deviation, 0.8) years (P<.001). This is particularly true for intrauterine growth restriction. These detrimental effects of growth restriction become more prominent with decreasing gestational age (P<.001). As expected, growth restriction in preterm infants born at ≤37+6/7 weeks of gestation was associated with a number of obstetrical risk factors, including hypertension in pregnancy (P<.001), multiple pregnancy (P<.001), pathologic cardiotocography (P=.001), and low pH (P=.007), increased pCO2 (P=.009), and poor pO2 (P<.001) in umbilical arterial blood. Of note, there were no differences in cerebral hemorrhage or white matter damage among small, appropriate, and large for gestational age birthweight percentile groups, suggesting an independent mechanism of brain injury caused by preterm growth restriction resulting in poor psychomotor development.

CONCLUSION

Compared with immaturity, growth restriction in preterm infants has more intense detrimental effects on psychomotor development, necessitating improved risk stratification. This finding has implications for clinical management, parental consultation, and early intervention strategies to improve school performance, educational success, and mental health in children. The mechanisms of brain injury specific to growth restriction in preterm infants require further elucidation.

Stepwise Analysis of Resection Margin Impact on Survival and Distant Metastasis in Pancreatic Head Ductal Adenocarcinoma

The prognostic role of tumor cells in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) of the pancreatic head with direct microscopic infiltration (DMI) or in close proximity (≤1 mm) to the resection margin (RM) remains unclear. This single-center, retrospective study included specimens from 75 patients who underwent oncological resection of pancreatic head PDAC between February 2013 and July 2020. Two pathologists independently re-measured the distance between tumors and the multiple RMs. The impact of RM involvement for DMI, tumor cells within ≤1 mm, in general, and for individual RMs on overall survival (OS) and development of distant pulmonary (PM) and hepatic (HM) metastasis was analyzed. DMI of RMs was significantly associated with a shorter OS (median 5 vs 19 months, P = .02). The presence of tumor cells within ≤1 mm of RMs yielded a negative impact on OS with a trend toward significance (median 9 vs 21 months, P = .09). DMI and tumor cells within ≤1 mm of the pancreatic transection margin (PRM), individually, had a significant negative impact on OS (median 4 vs 19 months and 6 vs 19 months, P < .05), but not for any other individual RM. RM involvement of ≤1 mm of only the vascular circumferential resection margin (VCRM) resulted in a shorter time to HM development (P = 0.05). DMI of the posterior circumferential resection margin (PCRM) and VCRM, individually, showed shorter time to PM (P < .05). Potential clinical considerations include extended intraoperative evaluation of the PRM (1 mm) and intensified preoperative prediction of R1 resection as a basis for neoadjuvant therapy.

Nucleosome assembly protein 1-like 1 (NAP1L1) in gastric cancer patients: a potential biomarker with diagnostic and prognostic utility

BACKGROUND

The nucleosome assembly protein 1-like 1 (NAP1L1) is suggested to have an oncogenic role in several tumors based on its overexpression. However, its diagnostic and prognostic role in gastric cancer remains unclarified. This study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic and prognostic utility of NAP1L1 in gastric cancer patients.

METHODS

A total of 85 patients [mean (SD) age: 60.9 (1.6) years, 49.4% were males] with newly-diagnosed gastric cancer and 40 healthy individuals [mean (SD) age: 60.7 (1.7) years, 52.5% were males] were included. Data on patient demographics (age, gender), TNM stages and tumor size, and the serum NAP1L1 levels were recorded.

RESULTS

Serum NAP1L1 levels were significantly higher in gastric cancer patients than in control subjects [12 (9.5-13.8) vs. 1.8 (1.5-2.4) ng/mL, p < 0.001]. Also, certain tumor characteristics such as tumor size of >4 vs. <4 cm (p < 0.001), M1 vs. M0 stage (p < 0.001), N2 vs. N0 and N1 stage (p < 0.001), and T4 vs. lower T stage (p < 0.001) were associated with significantly higher serum NAP1L1 levels in gastric cancer patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings revealed for the first time that serum levels for NAP1L1 were overexpressed in the gastric cancer, as also correlated with the disease progression. NAP1L1 seems to be a potential biomarker for gastric cancer, providing clinically important information on early diagnosis and risk stratification.

Biomarker characterization in endometrial cancer in Europe: first survey data analysis from 69 pathological academic and hospital labs

Introduction

Endometrial carcinoma (EC) is the commonest gynecological cancer affecting women in Western populations. To predict patient risk, the 2020 edition of the World Health Organization (WHO) Classification of Tumors of the Female Genital Tract stressed the importance of integrated histo-molecular classification of the disease. This survey analysis poses attention on the most frequently used immunohistochemical and molecular markers adopted in daily categorization of ECs in European laboratories.

Methods

We analyzed data collected through questionnaires administered to 40 Italian, 20 Spanish, 3 Swiss and 6 United Kingdom (UK) laboratories. We collected information regarding daily practice in EC evaluation, specifically concerning mismatch repair status (MMR) and microsatellite instability (MSI). Summary and descriptive statistical analyses were carried out to evaluate the current practice of each laboratory.

Results

The results show that MMR status is mainly evaluated by using immunohistochemistry (IHC) on most EC samples. The most frequent approach for the analysis of MMR status is IHC of four proteins (PMS2, MSH6, MSH2, MLH1). MSI analysis by molecular methods is uncommon but useful as a supplemental tool in specific conditions. MLH1 promoter hypermethylation and BRAF V600 mutations analysis are performed in case of negative expression of MLH1/PMS2. Other markers (mainly p53 followed by POLE and PTEN) are investigated in particular in Spain and Switzerland in a consistent number of cases.

Conclusion

Guidelines consultation and standardization of laboratory procedures are efficient means for EC prognostic risk stratification and improving the quality of care.

Improving the predictive capability of Framingham Risk Score for the risk of myocardial infarction based on coronary artery calcium score in healthy Singaporeans

INTRODUCTION

Cardiovascular disease was the top cause of deaths and disability in Singapore in 2018, contributing extensively to the local healthcare burden. Primary prevention identifies at-risk individuals for the swift implementation of preventive measures. This has been traditionally done using the Singapore-adapted Framingham Risk Score (SG FRS). However, its most recent recalibration was more than a decade ago. Recent changes in patient demographics and risk factors have undermined the accuracy of SG FRS, and the rising popularity of wearable health metrics has led to new data types with the potential to improve risk prediction.

METHODS

In healthy Singaporeans enrolled in SingHEART study (absence of any clinical outcomes), we investigated improvements in SG FRS to predict myocardial infarction risk based on high/low classification of the Agatston score (surrogate outcome). Logistic regression, receiver operating characteristic and net reclassification index (NRI) analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

We demonstrated a significant improvement in the area under curve (AUC) of SG FRS (AUC = 0.641) after recalibration and incorporation of additional variables (fasting blood glucose and wearable-derived activity levels) (AUC = 0.774) ( P < 0.001). SG FRS++ significantly increases accuracy in risk prediction (NRI = 0.219, P = 0.00254).

CONCLUSION

Existing Singapore cardiovascular disease risk prediction guidelines should be updated to improve risk prediction accuracy. Recalibrating existing risk functions and utilising wearable metrics that provide a large pool of objective health data can improve existing risk prediction tools. Lastly, activity levels and prediabetic state are important factors for coronary heart disease risk stratification, especially in low-risk individuals.

Comparing the efficacy and safety of low, medium, and high dosages of selexipag for treating pulmonary hypertension: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The maintenance dosage of selexipag is categorized as low, medium or high. In order to assess the efficacy and safety of different dosages of selexipag for the risk stratification of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

Studies assessing PAH risk stratification indices, such as the World Health Organization functional class (WHO-FC), six-minute walk distance (6MWD), N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) level, right atrial pressure (RAP), cardiac index (CI) and mixed venous oxygen saturation (SvO2), were included.

RESULTS

Thirteen studies were included. Selexipag led to improvements in the 6MWD (MD: 24.20 m, 95% CI: 10.74-37.67), NT-proBNP (SMD: -0.41, 95% CI: -0.79-0.04), CI (MD: 0.47 L/min/m2, 95% CI: 0.17-0.77) and WHO-FC (OR: 0.564, 95% CI: 0.457-0.697). Subgroup analysis demonstrated that all three dosages improved the 6MWD. A moderate dosage led to improvements in the CI (MD: 0.30 L/min/m2, 95% CI: 0.15-0.46) and WHO-FC (OR: 0.589, 95% CI: 0.376-0.922). Within 6 months of treatment, only the WHO-FC and CI were significantly improved (OR: 0.614, 95% CI: 0.380-0.993; MD: 0.30 L/min/m2, 95% CI: 0.16-0.45, respectively). More than 6 months of treatment significantly improved the 6MWD, WHO-FC and NT-proBNP (MD: 40.87 m, 95% CI: 10.97-70.77; OR: 0.557, 95% CI: 0.440-0.705; SMD: -0.61, 95% CI: -1.17-0.05, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Low, medium, and high dosages of selexipag all exhibited good effects. When treatment lasted for more than 6 months, selexipag exerted obvious effects, even in the low-dosage group. This finding is important for guiding individualized treatments.

Risk stratification of LA-NPC during chemoradiotherapy based on clinical classification and TVRR

PURPOSE

To investigate the correlation between tumor volume reduction rate (TVRR) and prognosis in patients with diverse clinical types of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) undergoing chemoradiotherapy, thereby aptly categorizing risks and directing the personalized treatment of NPC.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 605 NPC patients with varying clinical types were enrolled in this study and subsequently segregated into six subgroups based on their clinical types and TVRR. To accentuate the efficacy of grouping, Groups 1-6 underwent clustered analysis of hazard atio (HR) values pertaining to progression-free survival (PFS), forming three risk clusters denoted as low, intermediate, and high. The log-rank test was employed to discern differences, and R 4.1.1 was utilized for cluster analysis.

RESULTS

According to survival rates, we classified the first (G2 and G4), second (G1 and G6), and third (G3 and G5) risk clusters as low-, intermediate-, and high-risk, respectively. When comparing risk stratification with the 8th edition of the TNM staging system, our classification exhibited superior predictive prognostic performance. Subgroup analysis of treatments for each risk cluster revealed that the PFS in the neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) + concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) group surpassed that of the CCRT group significantly (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The reliance on clinical types and TVRR facilitates risk stratification of NPC during chemoradiotherapy, providing a foundation for physicians to tailor therapeutic strategies. Moreover, the risk cluster delineated for NPC patients during the mid-term of chemoradiotherapy stands as an independent prognostic factor for progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), distantmetastasis-free survival (DMFS), and local recurrence-free (LRRFS) posttreatment. Additionally, individuals in the high-risk cluster are recommended to undergo adjuvant chemotherapy after CCRT.

Correlation of immediate prevalence of cervical precancers and cancers with HPV genotype and age in women with atypical glandular cells cytology: A retrospective analysis of 369 cases

BACKGROUND

This study aims to assess the immediate risk of cervical precancers and cancers in women with atypical glandular cells (AGC) cytology, based on high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) genotypes and age.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted on 369 cases of AGC with immediate follow-up biopsy results, including 299 AGC-not otherwise specified (NOS) and 70 AGC-favor neoplastic (FN).

RESULTS

Among the 369 AGC cases, 127 tested positive for hrHPV (34.4%). The predominant high-risk type was other 11 genotypes (44.1%), followed by 16+ (29.1%), 18/45+ (26.0%), and 16 and 18/45 double-positive (0.79%). Precancers and cancers were detected in 30.4% (112 of 369) and 9.8% (36 of 369) of cases, respectively. The HPV-18/45+ group had notably higher adenocarcinoma in situ and adenocarcinoma (AIS+) prevalence compared to other 11 genotype groups (p < .0001 and p = .001, respectively). The HPV-16+ group showed significantly higher high-grade cervical squamous epithelial lesion and squamous cell carcinoma prevalence than other 11 genotype groups (p < .0001 and p = .017, respectively). Using 40-year cutoff, older women had significantly higher prevalence of abnormal glandular lesion+ lesions (17.6% vs. 7.6%, p = .005) and adenocarcinoma (AC) (12.4% vs. 2.5%, p = .001). Using 50-year cutoff, older women had higher prevalence of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) (3.3% vs. 0.4%, p = .042) and AC (15.2% vs. 5.8%, p = .005). Subgroup analysis revealed that AGC-FN women showed more severe cervical pathology than AGC-NOS women (p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

AGC women have a significantly increased risk of cervical precancerous lesions and cancer. HPV genotyping and patient age factors need to be taken into consideration in the clinical management process of AGC patients.

Machine Learning-Derived Baseline Visual Field Patterns Predict Future Glaucoma Onset in the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study

Purpose

The Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS) identified risk factors for primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) in patients with ocular hypertension, including pattern standard deviation (PSD). Archetypal analysis, an unsupervised machine learning method, may offer a more interpretable approach to risk stratification by identifying patterns in baseline visual fields (VFs).

Methods

There were 3272 eyes available in the OHTS. Archetypal analysis was applied using 24-2 baseline VFs, and model selection was performed with cross-validation. Decomposition coefficients for archetypes (ATs) were calculated. A penalized Cox proportional hazards model was implemented to select discriminative ATs. The AT model was compared to the OHTS model. Associations were identified between ATs with both POAG onset and VF progression, defined by mean deviation change per year.

Results

We selected 8494 baseline VFs. Optimal AT count was 19. The highest prevalence ATs were AT9, AT11, and AT7. The AT-based prediction model had a C-index of 0.75 for POAG onset. Multivariable models demonstrated that a one-interquartile range increase in the AT5 (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.25), AT8 (HR = 1.22; 95% CI, 1.09-1.37), AT15 (HR = 1.26; 95% CI, 1.12-1.41), and AT17 (HR = 1.17; 95% CI, 1.03-1.31) coefficients conferred increased risk of POAG onset. AT5, AT10, and AT14 were significantly associated with rapid VF progression. In a subgroup analysis by high-risk ATs (>95th percentile or <75th percentile coefficients), PSD lost significance as a predictor of POAG in the low-risk group.

Conclusions

Baseline VFs, prior to detectable glaucomatous damage, contain occult patterns representing early changes that may increase the risk of POAG onset and VF progression in patients with ocular hypertension. The relationship between PSD and POAG is modified by the presence of high-risk patterns at baseline. An AT-based prediction model for POAG may provide more interpretable glaucoma-specific information in a clinical setting.

Frailty is associated with 90-day mortality in urgent thoracic surgery conditions

Objective

In patients undergoing elective thoracic surgery, frailty is associated with worse outcomes. However, the magnitude by which frailty influences outcomes of urgent thoracic surgery (UTS) is unknown.

Methods

We identified patients admitted with a UTS condition from January to September 2017 in the National Readmissions Database. UTS conditions were classified as esophageal perforation, hemo/pneumothorax, rib fracture, and obstructed hiatal hernia. Outcome of interest was mortality within 90 days of index admission. Frailty score was calculated using a deficit accumulation method. Cox proportional hazard modeling was used to calculate a hazard ratio for each combination of UTS disease type and frailty score, adjusted for sex, insurance payor, hospital size, and hospital and patient location, and was compared with the effect of frailty on elective lung lobectomy.

Results

We identified 107,487 patients with a UTS condition. Among UTS conditions overall, increasing frailty elements were associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio, 2270; 95% CI, 1463-3523; P < .001). Compared with patients without frailty undergoing elective lobectomy, increasing frailty demonstrated trending toward increased mortality in all diagnoses. The magnitude of the effect of frailty on 90-day mortality differed depending on the disease and level of frailty.

Conclusions

The effect of frailty on 90-day mortality after admission for urgent thoracic surgery conditions varies by disease type and level of frailty. Among UTS disease types, increasing frailty was associated with a higher 90-day risk of mortality. These findings suggest a valuable role for frailty evaluation in both clinical settings and administrative data for risk assessment.

Prediction tools and risk stratification in epilepsy surgery

OBJECTIVE

This study was undertaken to conduct external validation of previously published epilepsy surgery prediction tools using a large independent multicenter dataset and to assess whether these tools can stratify patients for being operated on and for becoming free of disabling seizures (International League Against Epilepsy stage 1 and 2).

METHODS

We analyzed a dataset of 1562 patients, not used for tool development. We applied two scales: Epilepsy Surgery Grading Scale (ESGS) and Seizure Freedom Score (SFS); and two versions of Epilepsy Surgery Nomogram (ESN): the original version and the modified version, which included electroencephalographic data. For the ESNs, we used calibration curves and concordance indexes. We stratified the patients into three tiers for assessing the chances of attaining freedom from disabling seizures after surgery: high (ESGS = 1, SFS = 3-4, ESNs > 70%), moderate (ESGS = 2, SFS = 2, ESNs = 40%-70%), and low (ESGS = 2, SFS = 0-1, ESNs < 40%). We compared the three tiers as stratified by these tools, concerning the proportion of patients who were operated on, and for the proportion of patients who became free of disabling seizures.

RESULTS

The concordance indexes for the various versions of the nomograms were between .56 and .69. Both scales (ESGS, SFS) and nomograms accurately stratified the patients for becoming free of disabling seizures, with significant differences among the three tiers (p < .05). In addition, ESGS and the modified ESN accurately stratified the patients for having been offered surgery, with significant difference among the three tiers (p < .05).

SIGNIFICANCE

ESGS and the modified ESN (at thresholds of 40% and 70%) stratify patients undergoing presurgical evaluation into three tiers, with high, moderate, and low chance for favorable outcome, with significant differences between the groups concerning having surgery and becoming free of disabling seizures. Stratifying patients for epilepsy surgery has the potential to help select the optimal candidates in underprivileged areas and better allocate resources in developed countries.

Early relapse within 18 months is a powerful dynamic predictor for prognosis and could revise static risk distribution in multiple myeloma

BACKGROUND

The duration of response to treatment is a major prognostic factor, and early relapse (ER) strongly predicts inferior survival in multiple myeloma (MM). However, the definitions of ER in MM vary from study to study and how to dynamically integrate risk distribution is still unsolved.

METHODS

This study evaluated these ER definitions and further investigated the underlying relationship with static risk distribution in 629 newly diagnosed MM (NDMM) patients from the National Longitudinal Cohort of Hematological Diseases in China (NCT04645199).

RESULTS

These data indicated that early relapse within 18 months (ER18) after initial treatment was the best time point for identifying early progression and dynamic high-risk in MM. The ER18 population (114 of 587, 19.4%) presented with more aggressive biologic features and the inferior response to treatment compared to a reference cohort (p < .001), with a significantly short median overall survival (OS) of 28.9 months. Multivariate analyses confirmed the most significant prognostic value of ER18 on OS in the context of International Staging System stage, elevated lactate dehydrogenase, thrombocytopenia, cytogenetic abnormalities, and treatment (hazard ratio, 4.467; p < .001). The authors also described the specific transitions from static risk profile to dynamic risk distribution and then constructed a mixed-risk-pattern to identify four novel populations with distinct survival (p < .001). Additionally, the authors proposed a second-state model that predicts dynamic risk changes, enabling a complementary role to the Revised International Staging System model in facilitating individualized systematic treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Collectively, this study concludes that ER18 is a simple and dynamic prognostic predictor in MM. In addition to static risk assessment, dynamic risk plays an important role in survival prediction.

Opportunistic Extraction of Quantitative CT Biomarkers: Turning the Incidental Into Prognostic Information

The past two decades have seen a significant increase in the use of CT, with a corresponding rise in the mean population radiation dose. This rise in CT use has caused improved diagnostic certainty in conditions that were not previously routinely evaluated using CT, such as headaches, back pain, and chest pain. Unused data, unrelated to the primary diagnosis, embedded within these scans have the potential to provide organ-specific measurements that can be used to prognosticate or risk-profile patients for a wide variety of conditions. The recent increased availability of computing power, expertise and software for automated segmentation and measurements, assisted by artificial intelligence, provides a conducive environment for the deployment of these analyses into routine use. Data gathering from CT has the potential to add value to examinations and help offset the public perception of harm from radiation exposure. We review the potential for the collection of these data and propose the incorporation of this strategy into routine clinical practice.

CAROTIDSCORE.RU-The first Russian computer program for risk stratification of postoperative complications of carotid endarterectomy

GOAL

Presentation of the first Russian computer program (www.carotidscore.ru) for risk stratification of postoperative complications of carotid endarterectomy (CEE).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The present study is based on the analysis of a multicenter Russian database that includes 25,812 patients after CEE operated on from 01/01/2010 to 04/01/2022. The following types of CEE were implemented: 6814 classical CEE with plastic reconstruction of the reconstruction zone with a patch; 18,998 eversion CEE.

RESULTS

In the hospital postoperative period, 0.18% developed a lethal outcome, 0.14%-myocardial infarction, 0.35%-stroke. The combined endpoint was 0.68%. For each factor present in patients, a predictive coefficient was calculated. The prognostic coefficient was a numerical indicator reflecting the strength of the influence of each factor on the development of postoperative complications. Based on this formula, predictive coefficients were calculated for each factor present in patients in our study. The total contribution of these factors was reflected in "%" and denoted the risk of postoperative complications with a minimum value of 0% and a maximum of 100%. On the basis of the obtained calculations, a computer program CarotidSCORE was created. Its graphical interface is based on the QT framework (https://www.qt.io), which has established itself as one of the best solutions for desktop applications. It is possible not only to calculate the probability of developing a complication, but also to save all data about the patient in JSON format (for the patient's personal card and his anamnesis). The CarotidSCORE program contains 47 patient parameters, including clinical-demographic, anamnestic and angiographic characteristics. It allows you to choose one of the four types of CEE, which will provide an accurate stratification of the risk of complications for each of them in person.

CONCLUSION

CarotidSCORE (www.carotidscore.ru) is able to determine the likelihood of postoperative complications in patients undergoing CEE.